#European economy

[munaeem]

Why EU Trade Wars Hurt European Consumers

This video argues that European Union policymakers are pursuing policies that harm their own economies, particularly in the automotive sector. Here are the main points: EU policies are pushing European automakers to invest in China. Despite calls to “decouple” from China, European car companies are increasing their investments there. They aim to protect their supply chains. They also want to…

[rodaportal]

🌐 Join the conversation on the growing disparity between the cost of living and salaries! 📊 Our latest video explores the economic, social, and individual impacts, offering concrete measures for a more equitable future.

[xtruss]

Europe’s Economy Looks To Be Heading For Trouble! Will Policymakers Still Lift Interest Rates?

— August 31st 2023 | Finance and Economics | Brace For Impact

Containers are Pictured in the Harbour in Frankfurt, Germany. The European Central Bank is in the Background. Image: AP

Europe’s summer was a strange mixture of heavy rainfall and wildfires. The continent’s economy was also plagued by extremes. Inflation remained hot: prices rose by 5.3% in August compared with a year earlier. And officials are increasingly worried by the cloudy growth outlook. A recent drop in the purchasing managers’ index (pmi) suggests the bloc is facing recession.

Ahead of the next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on September 14th, policymakers will be worried by the possible emergence of stagflation (a situation in which low growth is paired with entrenched inflation). Christine Lagarde, the Central Bank’s President, recently reiterated her commitment to bringing down inflation and setting interest rates at “sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary to achieve a timely return of inflation to our 2% medium-term target”. In plain English: the ECB would much prefer a “hard landing”, featuring economic pain, to failing to reduce price rises.

The problem is that the ecb risks crashing the plane. Euro-zone inflation is proving as stubborn as the American variety. In Europe, price rises were sparked by increasing energy costs; in America, they were more demand-driven. But in both places inflation has followed a similar path, with Europe slightly behind. Now the question is whether core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, will come in to land. So far, it is staying stubbornly high (see chart).

This is in part because Europe has, like America, so far managed to dodge recession. At the end of last year, when many expected a European downturn, monetary tightening had yet to hit the economy and national governments offered generous handouts in order to counteract the energy shock. The service sector showed decent growth, and industrial order books remained full from the post-covid boom.

Gloom is now spreading across the continent. The global economy is weakening, and order books have plenty of blank pages. State support for households is also running out. Retail energy prices remain higher than before last year’s crisis; real incomes have yet to recover. Activity in the service industry contracted in August, according to the PMI Survey. The sector is at its weakest in two and a half years.

Higher interest rates have also started to affect the European economy, as intended by the ecb’s policymakers. Construction, which is traditionally sensitive to interest rates, is feeling the pain. Stingier bank lending is leading to a 0.4 percentage-point reduction in gdp growth each quarter, according to Goldman Sachs, a bank. Corporate insolvencies rose by more than 8% in the year’s second quarter, compared with the first, and have reached their highest since 2015. The impact of tighter monetary policy will peak in the second half of this year, predicts Oliver Rakau of Oxford Economics, a consultancy.

A hard landing is thus almost guaranteed. But the return of inflation to the ecb’s 2% target remains some way off. Two forces are pulling prices in different directions. One is the situation in the labour market. Unemployment remains at a record low. Although firms are hiring fewer workers, there is no imminent danger of mass lay-offs—in part because bosses want to hold on to workers that are increasingly scarce in an ageing continent. As a result, wages across the bloc are rising, even if not by enough to make up for earlier inflation.

The other force, which is pulling down inflation, is weakening demand for wages. During the covid pandemic, price growth took off in advance of wage growth, causing companies’ profits to rise strongly alongside inflation. If companies now find that demand is drying up, it is possible that inflation will fall at the same time as wage growth stays high, bringing profits back down. Indeed, prices on wholesale markets for goods are already falling fast, and import prices are also declining. At some point, these lower prices will be passed on to consumers.

Which of these two forces will win out? At the moment, it looks like the answer will be weak demand, since it has spread to the service sector, too. This suggests that euro-zone inflation might fall in relatively short order. But the ecb appears unconvinced, and seems ready to lift its main rate to 4.5% from 4.25%. Policymakers would be better off holding rates steady, so that they can assess the danger of a crash. ■

— This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline "Brace For Impact"

[thenewdemocratus]

Townhall: Daniel J. Mitchell: Is America Doomed to Become a Failed European-Style Welfare State?

Source:The New Democrat  One thing I tend to agree on with Progressive economists on is that there isn’t any magic number to attach to how big the public sector has to be or how small it has to be that is the signal that government is too big and must be trimmed down. Before the Great Recession, America was doing very well economically for about 25 years, with a few slow-downs in between and…

[aro-bird]

Okay, for aro awareness week, I need you all to start recognizing that:

NOT EVERYONE IN THE ARO COMMUNITY IS FROM THE UNITED STATES OR EUROPE.

Please, when we're having discussions about aphobia, allonormativity amatonormativity, and other issues for the love of god STOP PRETENDING THAT WE DON'T EXIST AND LISTEN TO US!

We aren't just your token aros that exist in the other side of the world just for you to prove that we are everywhere or whatever point you're trying to make, we are living, breathing human beings and members of the aro community and we deserve respect and to be remembered not as a point in your discourse but as equals.

I am sick and tired of people just assuming that everyone in the community is either from the United States or Europe and only centering those voices in the discussion. We exist too.

[yrrtyrrtwhenihrrthrrt]

All these posts I see with the nerve to say, "We'll be alright, we'll be okay, we'll continue to fight, we'll continue to hope," have made me more weary than the plain truth.

It's over. That's it, it's over. Our country has been taken from us.

The genocide will be invigorated, and any hope of U.S. pressure bringing it to an end is gone. I'm so sorry.

Everyone with a uterus will lose any semblance of human rights they once enjoyed. You can say goodbye to being considered a human being, you can say goodbye to any consensus whatsoever that your very life ever mattered.

Every queer and transgender person will face outright persecution and lose the right to so much as exist as themselves, alongside which even cishet people will lose all right to self-expression.

Immigrants will lose whatever fragile hold they had allowing them to pursue life and happiness in this country and will be forced away from their families, jobs, and loved ones if not worse.

Police abuse against people of color and any political dissenters will be invigorated and their immunity from justice will expand.

The prices will continue to rise and the wages will drop or remain stagnant at best.

Disabled Americans, including any American with any pre-existing condition, will lose all access to healthcare as medical costs will skyrocket and our meager insurance will be stripped of us. We will be left in the street to die.

So don't fucking tell me to "hold onto hope" and don't you dare fucking tell me "we will be okay." Who is we? It isn't me, or any of my friends or loved ones. There is not a single person I know that doesn't fall into at least one of the above-mentioned categories. Not one person in this country am I acquainted with who has neither a functioning uterus, nor ANY medical condition whatsoever, nor is an immigrant or from an immigrant family, nor is a person of color, nor is a member of the LGBTQ+ community. Think about it. Do you?

So, in God's name, who the fuck is "gonna be okay"? Anyone lucky enough to survive? Anyone who lucks out and manages to avoid a dangerous pregnancy (which will be soo easy once we lose access to birth control, I'm sure), or manages to stay under the ICE's radar, or manages not to be pulled over by a pig who needs to take out his rage over his wife surviving her last beating, or manages to not get sick or injured ever again? That's somehow not as comforting as people think it is.

And as for the genocide, I'm so sorry. I'm so, so, so sorry that my country has once again failed the people of Palestine. I hope all the people who abstained from voting because Kamala wasn't pro-Palestinian enough feel really good about themselves when they watch countless more children being slaughtered as Israel is bolstered in its capacity to accelerate the genocide beyond any level we've seen thusfar. I'm so, so sorry to my brothers and sisters in Palestine. I'm so sorry that we failed you.

This isn't to say we should stop fighting. But the time for hope and handholding and singing kumbaya is over. Compassion and love have failed, today has proved that. Violence is our only option left.

[ignatiusteto]

i think sacred music in the kryn dynasty would be very cyclical and repetitive in form to symbolize the idea that life is a continuous thing (at least those who are consecuted right right) and is a cycle across lifetimes and yeah

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

EU deforestation law delay brings losses to most vigilant

Companies that have paid to source agricultural produce that complies with the European Union's anti-deforestation law would lose out if the EU decides to delay implementing the legislation by a year, industry groups and traders said.

Deforestation is the second largest source of the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change after the burning of fossil fuels, according to the European Commission. The EU had planned to ban the import of commodities from suppliers unable to prove their goods were not linked to deforestation.

The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) would have impacted imports of cocoa, coffee, cattle, soy, oil palm, timber, rubber and related products like chocolate and leather.

It was scheduled to come into effect on Dec. 30, but last week the EU Commission proposed a 12-month delay, under pressure from industries and governments who said it would cause supply chain disruptions, exclude poor, small-scale farmers from the EU market, and drive up the cost of basic foodstuffs because many farmers and suppliers were not ready to comply.

Continue reading.

[tweetingukpolitics]

“Niesr’s latest study starts with some welcome honesty, Brexit is not the only cause of the UK’s problems – it has just added to the woes of the credit crunch and numerous other issues. With a resultant slowing of growth (and productivity which the latest data shows is actually still getting worse) it has cost the UK sorely. British workers should be about 10% better off than we are.”

[dickinfectionbez]

#she had a kid at this age and I'm thirsting over middle age men.

LMAO same, you ain't alone in this

😭😭

She had a sit down with me today asking if I was talking to anyone and then called me a loser when I said no.

[munaeem]

EU’s Economy in Pain as China Takes Revenge For Tariffs!

[head-post]

Rising costs forcing Greeks to cut back on holidays, skip dining out

The rising cost of living is forcing Greeks to cut back on summer holidays and cut back on eating out and take other measures to live within their means, Greek media reported on Thursday.

People have not only cut back on their holidays, but also significantly reduced their spending on food and entertainment, with many now preferring to eat at home or order takeaways rather than visit taverns or restaurants.

According to the recent survey, conducted by the Retail Consumer Products Research Institute, a third of Greek consumers believe that food costs are a significant burden on their holiday budget and are therefore cautious when making spending decisions.

The results of the survey show that the downward trend in travel spending that began last year and the soaring prices on the coast have also affected foreign travellers, who now face rising prices.

As a consequence, the restaurant industry is experiencing a decrease in customer flow and activity compared to previous years, including from foreign tourists.

Data released by the Bank of Greece shows a downward trend in spending by foreign tourists. From January to May 2024, revenue from foreign tourists increased by 16.2 per cent to €3.8 billion ($4.15 billion), while foreign tourist arrivals increased by 20.6 per cent.

Read more HERE

[returquoise]

Finnish votes after about 60% of votes have been counted

(Parties in order: National Coalition, Left Alliance, Social Democrats, Centre Party, Green League, Finns Party, Swedish People's Party, Christian Democrats)

The darker colored blocks and +/- beside them indicate change from 2019 European elections.

Centre Party is in Renew Europe, Christian Democrats in EPP, and everyone else matches their EU group colours. Edit// actually they don't because apparently the national broadcaster has better colour coding than official European Parliament website ahahahaha. ((Swedish People's party is also in Renew Europe, National Coalition is in EPP, Finns in ECR, red parties and Greens can be matched by names)

Current Finnish Parliament majority/government parties: National Coalition, Finns Party, Swedish People's Party and Christian Democrat. This government took power in Spring 2023.

[pastlight]

being argentinian is insane, your country goes through an economic crisis every 5 years in which half the people can't afford to eat, and you get called a nazi by people whose countries are pillaging your natural resources and funding thinktanks cause you're good at sport

[opisasodomite]

Woke up at 4am and decided instead of futilely trying to go back to bed I’d just get up and read, which was the right call lmao, this is the perfect hour to just Be Alive in peace

[workersolidarity]

🇪🇺🇷🇺 🚨 TRADE BETWEEN THE EU AND THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION DOWN 37% SINCE FEBRUARY 2022

According to German news agency Der Spiegel, a study by the IFO Institute has found that European Union exports have fallen 37% since the start of Russia's Special Military Operation in Ukraine, which began on Feb. 24th, 2022.

"One reason for the still high export volume to Russia is that only 32 percent of all products from the EU are sanctioned," Feodora Teti, the Deputy-chief of the IFO Institute's Center for Foreign Trade, said on Tuesday.

"For luxury goods, for example, the export of champagne to Russia is sanctioned, but not Prosecco," Teti said.

Recent evaluations of IFO's new sanctions database suggest many of the sanctioned goods can be delivered to the Russian Federation indirectly via third countries.

"For Russia, China is the most important alternative country of origin for sanctioned products: 61 percent of these goods come from China," Teti added.

Prior to the war in Ukraine, that proportion was only 35%. Currently, 13% of all goods sanctioned by Western countries enter Russia via Turkey, while less than 1% arrives via Armenia. During the same period, EU exports to Armenia doubled.

#source

@WorkerSolidarityNews