#European economy

[munaeem]

Why EU Trade Wars Hurt European Consumers

This video argues that European Union policymakers are pursuing policies that harm their own economies, particularly in the automotive sector. Here are the main points: EU policies are pushing European automakers to invest in China. Despite calls to “decouple” from China, European car companies are increasing their investments there. They aim to protect their supply chains. They also want to…

[rodaportal]

🌐 Join the conversation on the growing disparity between the cost of living and salaries! 📊 Our latest video explores the economic, social, and individual impacts, offering concrete measures for a more equitable future.

[xtruss]

Europe’s Economy Looks To Be Heading For Trouble! Will Policymakers Still Lift Interest Rates?

— August 31st 2023 | Finance and Economics | Brace For Impact

Containers are Pictured in the Harbour in Frankfurt, Germany. The European Central Bank is in the Background. Image: AP

Europe’s summer was a strange mixture of heavy rainfall and wildfires. The continent’s economy was also plagued by extremes. Inflation remained hot: prices rose by 5.3% in August compared with a year earlier. And officials are increasingly worried by the cloudy growth outlook. A recent drop in the purchasing managers’ index (pmi) suggests the bloc is facing recession.

Ahead of the next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on September 14th, policymakers will be worried by the possible emergence of stagflation (a situation in which low growth is paired with entrenched inflation). Christine Lagarde, the Central Bank’s President, recently reiterated her commitment to bringing down inflation and setting interest rates at “sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary to achieve a timely return of inflation to our 2% medium-term target”. In plain English: the ECB would much prefer a “hard landing”, featuring economic pain, to failing to reduce price rises.

The problem is that the ecb risks crashing the plane. Euro-zone inflation is proving as stubborn as the American variety. In Europe, price rises were sparked by increasing energy costs; in America, they were more demand-driven. But in both places inflation has followed a similar path, with Europe slightly behind. Now the question is whether core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, will come in to land. So far, it is staying stubbornly high (see chart).

This is in part because Europe has, like America, so far managed to dodge recession. At the end of last year, when many expected a European downturn, monetary tightening had yet to hit the economy and national governments offered generous handouts in order to counteract the energy shock. The service sector showed decent growth, and industrial order books remained full from the post-covid boom.

Gloom is now spreading across the continent. The global economy is weakening, and order books have plenty of blank pages. State support for households is also running out. Retail energy prices remain higher than before last year’s crisis; real incomes have yet to recover. Activity in the service industry contracted in August, according to the PMI Survey. The sector is at its weakest in two and a half years.

Higher interest rates have also started to affect the European economy, as intended by the ecb’s policymakers. Construction, which is traditionally sensitive to interest rates, is feeling the pain. Stingier bank lending is leading to a 0.4 percentage-point reduction in gdp growth each quarter, according to Goldman Sachs, a bank. Corporate insolvencies rose by more than 8% in the year’s second quarter, compared with the first, and have reached their highest since 2015. The impact of tighter monetary policy will peak in the second half of this year, predicts Oliver Rakau of Oxford Economics, a consultancy.

A hard landing is thus almost guaranteed. But the return of inflation to the ecb’s 2% target remains some way off. Two forces are pulling prices in different directions. One is the situation in the labour market. Unemployment remains at a record low. Although firms are hiring fewer workers, there is no imminent danger of mass lay-offs—in part because bosses want to hold on to workers that are increasingly scarce in an ageing continent. As a result, wages across the bloc are rising, even if not by enough to make up for earlier inflation.

The other force, which is pulling down inflation, is weakening demand for wages. During the covid pandemic, price growth took off in advance of wage growth, causing companies’ profits to rise strongly alongside inflation. If companies now find that demand is drying up, it is possible that inflation will fall at the same time as wage growth stays high, bringing profits back down. Indeed, prices on wholesale markets for goods are already falling fast, and import prices are also declining. At some point, these lower prices will be passed on to consumers.

Which of these two forces will win out? At the moment, it looks like the answer will be weak demand, since it has spread to the service sector, too. This suggests that euro-zone inflation might fall in relatively short order. But the ecb appears unconvinced, and seems ready to lift its main rate to 4.5% from 4.25%. Policymakers would be better off holding rates steady, so that they can assess the danger of a crash. ■

— This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline "Brace For Impact"

[thenewdemocratus]

Townhall: Daniel J. Mitchell: Is America Doomed to Become a Failed European-Style Welfare State?

Source:The New Democrat  One thing I tend to agree on with Progressive economists on is that there isn’t any magic number to attach to how big the public sector has to be or how small it has to be that is the signal that government is too big and must be trimmed down. Before the Great Recession, America was doing very well economically for about 25 years, with a few slow-downs in between and…

[aro-bird]

Okay, for aro awareness week, I need you all to start recognizing that:

NOT EVERYONE IN THE ARO COMMUNITY IS FROM THE UNITED STATES OR EUROPE.

Please, when we're having discussions about aphobia, allonormativity amatonormativity, and other issues for the love of god STOP PRETENDING THAT WE DON'T EXIST AND LISTEN TO US!

We aren't just your token aros that exist in the other side of the world just for you to prove that we are everywhere or whatever point you're trying to make, we are living, breathing human beings and members of the aro community and we deserve respect and to be remembered not as a point in your discourse but as equals.

I am sick and tired of people just assuming that everyone in the community is either from the United States or Europe and only centering those voices in the discussion. We exist too.

[yrrtyrrtwhenihrrthrrt]

All these posts I see with the nerve to say, "We'll be alright, we'll be okay, we'll continue to fight, we'll continue to hope," have made me more weary than the plain truth.

It's over. That's it, it's over. Our country has been taken from us.

The genocide will be invigorated, and any hope of U.S. pressure bringing it to an end is gone. I'm so sorry.

Everyone with a uterus will lose any semblance of human rights they once enjoyed. You can say goodbye to being considered a human being, you can say goodbye to any consensus whatsoever that your very life ever mattered.

Every queer and transgender person will face outright persecution and lose the right to so much as exist as themselves, alongside which even cishet people will lose all right to self-expression.

Immigrants will lose whatever fragile hold they had allowing them to pursue life and happiness in this country and will be forced away from their families, jobs, and loved ones if not worse.

Police abuse against people of color and any political dissenters will be invigorated and their immunity from justice will expand.

The prices will continue to rise and the wages will drop or remain stagnant at best.

Disabled Americans, including any American with any pre-existing condition, will lose all access to healthcare as medical costs will skyrocket and our meager insurance will be stripped of us. We will be left in the street to die.

So don't fucking tell me to "hold onto hope" and don't you dare fucking tell me "we will be okay." Who is we? It isn't me, or any of my friends or loved ones. There is not a single person I know that doesn't fall into at least one of the above-mentioned categories. Not one person in this country am I acquainted with who has neither a functioning uterus, nor ANY medical condition whatsoever, nor is an immigrant or from an immigrant family, nor is a person of color, nor is a member of the LGBTQ+ community. Think about it. Do you?

So, in God's name, who the fuck is "gonna be okay"? Anyone lucky enough to survive? Anyone who lucks out and manages to avoid a dangerous pregnancy (which will be soo easy once we lose access to birth control, I'm sure), or manages to stay under the ICE's radar, or manages not to be pulled over by a pig who needs to take out his rage over his wife surviving her last beating, or manages to not get sick or injured ever again? That's somehow not as comforting as people think it is.

And as for the genocide, I'm so sorry. I'm so, so, so sorry that my country has once again failed the people of Palestine. I hope all the people who abstained from voting because Kamala wasn't pro-Palestinian enough feel really good about themselves when they watch countless more children being slaughtered as Israel is bolstered in its capacity to accelerate the genocide beyond any level we've seen thusfar. I'm so, so sorry to my brothers and sisters in Palestine. I'm so sorry that we failed you.

This isn't to say we should stop fighting. But the time for hope and handholding and singing kumbaya is over. Compassion and love have failed, today has proved that. Violence is our only option left.

[ignatiusteto]

i think sacred music in the kryn dynasty would be very cyclical and repetitive in form to symbolize the idea that life is a continuous thing (at least those who are consecuted right right) and is a cycle across lifetimes and yeah

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

EU deforestation law delay brings losses to most vigilant

Companies that have paid to source agricultural produce that complies with the European Union's anti-deforestation law would lose out if the EU decides to delay implementing the legislation by a year, industry groups and traders said.

Deforestation is the second largest source of the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change after the burning of fossil fuels, according to the European Commission. The EU had planned to ban the import of commodities from suppliers unable to prove their goods were not linked to deforestation.

The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) would have impacted imports of cocoa, coffee, cattle, soy, oil palm, timber, rubber and related products like chocolate and leather.

It was scheduled to come into effect on Dec. 30, but last week the EU Commission proposed a 12-month delay, under pressure from industries and governments who said it would cause supply chain disruptions, exclude poor, small-scale farmers from the EU market, and drive up the cost of basic foodstuffs because many farmers and suppliers were not ready to comply.

Continue reading.

[tweetingukpolitics]

“Niesr’s latest study starts with some welcome honesty, Brexit is not the only cause of the UK’s problems – it has just added to the woes of the credit crunch and numerous other issues. With a resultant slowing of growth (and productivity which the latest data shows is actually still getting worse) it has cost the UK sorely. British workers should be about 10% better off than we are.”

[dickinfectionbez]

#she had a kid at this age and I'm thirsting over middle age men.

LMAO same, you ain't alone in this

😭😭

She had a sit down with me today asking if I was talking to anyone and then called me a loser when I said no.

[munaeem]

EU’s Economy in Pain as China Takes Revenge For Tariffs!

[head-post]

Rising costs forcing Greeks to cut back on holidays, skip dining out

The rising cost of living is forcing Greeks to cut back on summer holidays and cut back on eating out and take other measures to live within their means, Greek media reported on Thursday.

People have not only cut back on their holidays, but also significantly reduced their spending on food and entertainment, with many now preferring to eat at home or order takeaways rather than visit taverns or restaurants.

According to the recent survey, conducted by the Retail Consumer Products Research Institute, a third of Greek consumers believe that food costs are a significant burden on their holiday budget and are therefore cautious when making spending decisions.

The results of the survey show that the downward trend in travel spending that began last year and the soaring prices on the coast have also affected foreign travellers, who now face rising prices.

As a consequence, the restaurant industry is experiencing a decrease in customer flow and activity compared to previous years, including from foreign tourists.

Data released by the Bank of Greece shows a downward trend in spending by foreign tourists. From January to May 2024, revenue from foreign tourists increased by 16.2 per cent to €3.8 billion ($4.15 billion), while foreign tourist arrivals increased by 20.6 per cent.

Read more HERE

[returquoise]

Finnish votes after about 60% of votes have been counted

(Parties in order: National Coalition, Left Alliance, Social Democrats, Centre Party, Green League, Finns Party, Swedish People's Party, Christian Democrats)

The darker colored blocks and +/- beside them indicate change from 2019 European elections.

Centre Party is in Renew Europe, Christian Democrats in EPP, and everyone else matches their EU group colours. Edit// actually they don't because apparently the national broadcaster has better colour coding than official European Parliament website ahahahaha. ((Swedish People's party is also in Renew Europe, National Coalition is in EPP, Finns in ECR, red parties and Greens can be matched by names)

Current Finnish Parliament majority/government parties: National Coalition, Finns Party, Swedish People's Party and Christian Democrat. This government took power in Spring 2023.

[bopinion]

2024 / 46

Aperçu of the week

„F-e-a-r has two meanings: Forget everything and run. Or Face everything and rise."

(Thomas Wirth on his transportable mega artwork "Global Gate", which is currently on display at the Zollverein UNESCO World Heritage Site in Essen, North Rhine-Westphalia)

Bad News of the Week

"The Sick Man of Europe" was the headline of the British business magazine 'The Economist' in 1999, describing the toxic mixture of the burdens of reunification, a rigid labor market, excessive social benefits and a lack of dynamism that weighed Germany down at the time. 25 years later, it's that time again. Because Europe's largest economy is sick again. And this time even more fundamentally. And with very bad timing.

Yes, there was the coronavirus shock. And yes, there were supply chain problems and inflation. But the fundamental problem is homemade: Germany has been asleep politically and economically. And must now be careful not to fall into a coma. Like Japan, Germany has always been an exporter of high-quality goods. And, like Japan, has been too slow and inadequate in adapting to a new global economy. The shift of the dominant nations, the USA and China, has made it a very different one today than it was ten years ago.

Thanks to its huge market, China has been able to force foreign companies to settle locally and enter into partnerships. Originally "the world's extended workbench", China was able to benefit from an enormous transfer of technological knowledge in a short space of time. And thus became a quality supplier itself. As a result, China now covers more of its own production needs and has also become a serious competitor on the global market. Both bad for exporting nations.

The USA, on the other hand, has once again placed itself at the forefront of technological development (connectivity, digital, AI, etc.) and at the same time has brought industrial production back into the country through an increasingly isolationist trade policy. The restrictions imposed by Donald Trump in his first term of office were not (!) reversed by Joe Biden's government. And Trump has unequivocally announced that he will continue to tighten the America First screw - his declared favorite word is "import tariffs". Both bad for exporting nations.

The German flagship industry, automotive manufacturing, is symptomatic of the general economic trend. After decades of success stories and technological and brand leadership, we were crushed by electromobility. Which we underestimated in many respects. For example, the fact that it considerably simplifies vehicle construction - which brings us back to the competitive pressure from the USA and China. Now the share prices of our former industrial jewels are plummeting, short-time work is being introduced everywhere and now there is even talk of entire plant closures: Volkswagen - not long ago worlds biggest manufacturer - alone wants to close three German factories.

The political magazine Cicero analyzes: "The location conditions in Germany are getting worse and worse. In particular, the excessive bureaucracy, the tax burden and the high energy prices are having a negative impact. If politicians fail to find solutions here, things will look bad for the industrial future." Rising unemployment will increase social spending. At the same time, labor costs will continue to rise due to inflation. And the infrastructure, which has been neglected for 20 years, should be urgently and expensively modernized. Not to mention the necessary climate-neutral restructuring of the economy. I find it difficult to be optimistic about our economic future right now...

Good News of the Week

Lately, Ukraine has had to accept rather bad news from the USA. Donald Trump himself and his entourage have confirmed more than once that the extensive military aid from the USA will certainly not continue in full. This means that half of the arms deliveries are at risk and full compensation from other countries - Germany is a distant second - is practically impossible.

But now there has probably been a kind of farewell gift from Joe Biden, which could possibly even be a game changer. It concerns long-range weapons systems and their use on Russian territory. Until now, this was formally prohibited, as Ukraine's partner countries wanted to avoid the escalation of being seen as a party of war themselves. Specifically, this means that the US ATACMS missiles with their range of 300 kilometers can also be deployed behind the Russian border.

This is a decisive strategic advantage that replaces a previous disadvantage. Until now, the aggressor's supply routes, weapons depots, military bases, etc. have been practically unassailable. The outcry on the Russian side is correspondingly great. The "first deputy chairman of the International Affairs Committee of the Russian Federation Council" (yeah, that's his title) Vladimir Jabarov even speaks of an "unprecedented step of escalation that could lead to the start of the Third World War".

Ukraine's NATO neighbor Poland, for example, sounds different. Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski wrote on Twitter that Biden had responded to the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia and the massive Russian missile attacks on Ukraine "in a language that Vladimir Putin understands". Let's hope so. And let's also hope that Germany, for example, allows the use of its Taurus cruise missiles, which experts see as ideal for Ukrainian defense purposes. The current Chancellor Olaf Scholz has always refused to do so. By contrast, the likely incoming chancellor (in the early elections at the end of February 2025), conservative opposition leader Friedrich Merz, is in favor. As far as I know, this is the only position where I am leaning more towards Merz than Scholz. So at least there's something good in this respect too...

Personal happy moment of the week

I've really thought about it. But I'm so stressed at the moment that happiness just doesn't get enough attention. But I did remember one thing: we got our winter tires fitted just in time before the first snow. You get modest in age... ;-)

I couldn't care less...

...that it is always possible to use legal sophistry to overturn a groundbreaking court ruling. In this case, and once again at the expense of the environment. The British-Dutch oil and natural gas giant Shell does not have to drastically reduce its CO2 emissions after all. This is because a civil court in The Hague overturned a corresponding climate ruling by the court of first instance and dismissed the lawsuit brought by environmentalists. The latter had originally demanded that the company reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by a net 45 percent by 2030. However, the appeal chamber found that this figure lacked a "reliable basis for calculation". Excuse me? So now - exactly: nothing is happening.

It's fine with me...

...that fat doesn't always have to be bad. It's actually considered fattening. And extremely unhealthy, especially belly fat, which not only looks shitty (I've been developing alarmingly for ten years now), but can also damage the organs. However, a study by the Charité hospital in Berlin and the German Institute of Human Nutrition (DIfE) in Potsdam has now shown that a diet containing polyunsaturated fatty acids - such as those found in oils, nuts, avocado or fish - not only melts belly fat, but also has a positive effect on cholesterol levels, blood pressure and the brain. That should give me pause for thought.

As I write this...

...EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is putting together her new Commission. Each country has the right to one post - with 27 countries in the European Union, this is quite a large governing body. Its members are appointed by the respective country. So in the case of Italy, for example, Raffaele Fitto from the right-wing Fratelli d'Italia is actually an imposition - but in the shadow of Viktor Orban, everyone seems harmless. Nevertheless, von der Leyen seems to have managed to find a balanced personnel tableau. This is also necessary, as this Commission can only be confirmed as a whole by the European Parliament. Or not.

Post Scriptum

Apparently, New Zealand is not a perfect world either. At least not for the original population, because ruthless colonialism was also practiced there. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has publicly apologized in parliament for the immense suffering that occurred according to an investigation by the Royal Commission of Inquiry. Around 200,000 mainly young people and mainly indigenous Maori experienced violence in New Zealand's state and religious institutions between 1950 and 1999. In view of a population of just 5 million, this is a huge number. This means that almost one in three people under protection suffered some form of abuse. We're talking about rape, electric shocks and sterilization, among other things. Whew, that's hard to take. I could cry over their wounded souls.

[yakamozarda]

I am getting way too stressed over this and the more stressed i get the more i get confused and i ended up smoking one cigarette to calm now but now i am annoyed bc it made me feel weird and im annoyed at myself for using it to cope esp since i was doing a good job quitting it like not smoking for a long time and only smoking one cigarette or something for fun but i did it now to cope with stress which is baaaad. At one hand i know relapses happen and i shouldnt beat myself over it but still. Anyways i asked a friend for help now and hopefully i will figure it out before the deadline and wont feel like dropping out soon

[beardedmrbean]

Poland’s economic growth is projected to be the third-highest in the European Union next year, driven by strong domestic consumption and public investment, according to the European Commission’s Autumn 2024 Economic Forecast.

Poland’s economy is expected to grow by 3.0% this year, rebounding sharply from near stagnation in 2023, when growth was just 0.1%. The European Commission said: “Private consumption is set to be the main growth driver, supported by rapidly rising wages, increased government spending on support to families, improved consumer sentiment and receding inflationary pressures.” In 2025, Poland’s GDP is expected to grow by 3.6%, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in the EU. This will be driven by reconstruction efforts after severe flooding in September and strong domestic demand. By 2026, Poland's growth is expected to slow to 3.1% due to weaker consumption and investment, according to the Commission.

Employment is projected to decrease by 0.3% in 2024, with modest gains thereafter as the workforce ages and shrinks. Rising employment among Ukrainian refugees is expected to offset these trends partially.

EU economic trends

The broader EU economy, by contrast, is forecast to grow at a slower pace. Real GDP is projected to expand by 0.9% in 2024 and accelerate to 1.5% in 2025. Growth is expected to reach 1.8% in 2026, driven by stronger consumer demand and a rebound in investment.

In the euro area, growth is forecast at 0.8% in 2024, increasing to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. Ireland and Malta are the only EU countries expected to outpace Poland's growth in 2025, with Ireland rebounding from a deep slump caused by instability in multinational sectors. Malta, meanwhile, continues its steady momentum, supported by strong domestic demand, growing tourism, robust employment and recovering wages. Despite the expected slowdown in employment growth from 0.8% in 2024 to 0.5% in 2026, the EU labor market remained strong in 2024. Unemployment reached a historic low of 5.9% in October and is projected to stabilize at 6.1% in 2024, gradually declining to 5.9% by 2026.

The EU’s Commissioner for Economy, Paolo Gentiloni, said: “The European economy is slowly recovering. As inflation continues to ease and private consumption and investment growth pick up, with unemployment at record lows, growth is set to gradually accelerate over the next two years.”