#European economy

[head-post]

Rachel Reeves “happy” to look at UK joining pan-European trade area

Rachel Reeves has said she is “absolutely delighted” to consider joining a pan-European customs area to ease restrictions on trade, Mirror reports.

Maroš Sefcovic, the new head of the EU’s trade body, said last week that the UK joining the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention (PEM) is “something we could consider” as part of the post-Brexit reset. It would allow tariff-free trade in goods across Europe, as well as some countries in North Africa and the Levant.

The Chancellor told Sky:

“We are absolutely happy to look at these different proposals because we know that the deal that the previous government secured is not working well enough. It’s not working well enough for small businesses trying to export, it’s not working well enough for larger businesses either. We’re grown-ups who admit that, whereas the previous government said there were no problems at all. And where there are constructive ideas we are happy to look at those, as long as they’re consistent with the red lines we set out in our manifesto.”

Labour has ruled out joining the EU customs union or single market before the 2024 election. But Keir Starmer wants to seek closer ties with Europe after years of fighting over Brexit.

The comments immediately sparked howls of outrage from the Tories, who said it risked “cancelling Brexit from the back door.” Shadow Business Secretary Andrew Griffith said:

“This scheme is not the silver bullet to growth the Government thinks it is. Whenever Labour negotiates, Britain loses. So, we need to make sure they don’t surrender important assets like our fishing rights. We must avoid undoing Brexit by the back door by aligning with the EU’s low-growth model.”

Expressing a more optimistic tone than in recent months, she told the BBC:

“My optimism for Britain has never burned brighter than it does now and that’s why we are going further and faster in removing those things that are blocking investment and blocking businesses from creating the wealth and prosperity in our country.”

“Rachel from accounts”

Reeves also noted that people had “underestimated” her before and she had “spent her life proving people wrong” when asked if she was offended by critics calling her “Rachel from accounts.”

Asked if she thought she would be labelled condescending if she were a man, the chancellor told Sky News:

“Some people don’t want this Government to succeed. Some people don’t want me to succeed. I spend my life proving people wrong, proving that I can do stuff, that I’ve been underestimated.”

Asked if she was hurt by the nickname, she said:

“I’ve probably been called worse things… in the end people are going to judge me on the job that I’m doing now, that I’m doing as Chancellor of the Exchequer.”

Read more HERE

[munaeem]

Understanding Europe’s Aging Population and Its Economic Implications

Europe is grappling with a demographic transformation as its population ages at an unprecedented rate. This shift brings forth critical questions about various socio-economic factors that could shape the continent’s future. Why is Europe’s Population Aging? One of the primary reasons for Europe’s aging population is the significant decline in birth rates across many countries. Women have…

[thewordenreport]

It might surprise you that the GDP per capita in Germany is less than in Mississippi. The E.U. average is also less than the U.S. average. Why? https://thewordenreport-governmentandmarkets.blogspot.com/2025/01/gdp-per-capita-in-eu-and-us-changing.html

[rodaportal]

🌐 Join the conversation on the growing disparity between the cost of living and salaries! 📊 Our latest video explores the economic, social, and individual impacts, offering concrete measures for a more equitable future.

[xtruss]

Europe’s Economy Looks To Be Heading For Trouble! Will Policymakers Still Lift Interest Rates?

— August 31st 2023 | Finance and Economics | Brace For Impact

Containers are Pictured in the Harbour in Frankfurt, Germany. The European Central Bank is in the Background. Image: AP

Europe’s summer was a strange mixture of heavy rainfall and wildfires. The continent’s economy was also plagued by extremes. Inflation remained hot: prices rose by 5.3% in August compared with a year earlier. And officials are increasingly worried by the cloudy growth outlook. A recent drop in the purchasing managers’ index (pmi) suggests the bloc is facing recession.

Ahead of the next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on September 14th, policymakers will be worried by the possible emergence of stagflation (a situation in which low growth is paired with entrenched inflation). Christine Lagarde, the Central Bank’s President, recently reiterated her commitment to bringing down inflation and setting interest rates at “sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary to achieve a timely return of inflation to our 2% medium-term target”. In plain English: the ECB would much prefer a “hard landing”, featuring economic pain, to failing to reduce price rises.

The problem is that the ecb risks crashing the plane. Euro-zone inflation is proving as stubborn as the American variety. In Europe, price rises were sparked by increasing energy costs; in America, they were more demand-driven. But in both places inflation has followed a similar path, with Europe slightly behind. Now the question is whether core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, will come in to land. So far, it is staying stubbornly high (see chart).

This is in part because Europe has, like America, so far managed to dodge recession. At the end of last year, when many expected a European downturn, monetary tightening had yet to hit the economy and national governments offered generous handouts in order to counteract the energy shock. The service sector showed decent growth, and industrial order books remained full from the post-covid boom.

Gloom is now spreading across the continent. The global economy is weakening, and order books have plenty of blank pages. State support for households is also running out. Retail energy prices remain higher than before last year’s crisis; real incomes have yet to recover. Activity in the service industry contracted in August, according to the PMI Survey. The sector is at its weakest in two and a half years.

Higher interest rates have also started to affect the European economy, as intended by the ecb’s policymakers. Construction, which is traditionally sensitive to interest rates, is feeling the pain. Stingier bank lending is leading to a 0.4 percentage-point reduction in gdp growth each quarter, according to Goldman Sachs, a bank. Corporate insolvencies rose by more than 8% in the year’s second quarter, compared with the first, and have reached their highest since 2015. The impact of tighter monetary policy will peak in the second half of this year, predicts Oliver Rakau of Oxford Economics, a consultancy.

A hard landing is thus almost guaranteed. But the return of inflation to the ecb’s 2% target remains some way off. Two forces are pulling prices in different directions. One is the situation in the labour market. Unemployment remains at a record low. Although firms are hiring fewer workers, there is no imminent danger of mass lay-offs—in part because bosses want to hold on to workers that are increasingly scarce in an ageing continent. As a result, wages across the bloc are rising, even if not by enough to make up for earlier inflation.

The other force, which is pulling down inflation, is weakening demand for wages. During the covid pandemic, price growth took off in advance of wage growth, causing companies’ profits to rise strongly alongside inflation. If companies now find that demand is drying up, it is possible that inflation will fall at the same time as wage growth stays high, bringing profits back down. Indeed, prices on wholesale markets for goods are already falling fast, and import prices are also declining. At some point, these lower prices will be passed on to consumers.

Which of these two forces will win out? At the moment, it looks like the answer will be weak demand, since it has spread to the service sector, too. This suggests that euro-zone inflation might fall in relatively short order. But the ecb appears unconvinced, and seems ready to lift its main rate to 4.5% from 4.25%. Policymakers would be better off holding rates steady, so that they can assess the danger of a crash. ■

— This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline "Brace For Impact"

[thenewdemocratus]

Townhall: Daniel J. Mitchell: Is America Doomed to Become a Failed European-Style Welfare State?

Source:The New Democrat  One thing I tend to agree on with Progressive economists on is that there isn’t any magic number to attach to how big the public sector has to be or how small it has to be that is the signal that government is too big and must be trimmed down. Before the Great Recession, America was doing very well economically for about 25 years, with a few slow-downs in between and…

[aro-bird]

Okay, for aro awareness week, I need you all to start recognizing that:

NOT EVERYONE IN THE ARO COMMUNITY IS FROM THE UNITED STATES OR EUROPE.

Please, when we're having discussions about aphobia, allonormativity amatonormativity, and other issues for the love of god STOP PRETENDING THAT WE DON'T EXIST AND LISTEN TO US!

We aren't just your token aros that exist in the other side of the world just for you to prove that we are everywhere or whatever point you're trying to make, we are living, breathing human beings and members of the aro community and we deserve respect and to be remembered not as a point in your discourse but as equals.

I am sick and tired of people just assuming that everyone in the community is either from the United States or Europe and only centering those voices in the discussion. We exist too.

[yrrtyrrtwhenihrrthrrt]

All these posts I see with the nerve to say, "We'll be alright, we'll be okay, we'll continue to fight, we'll continue to hope," have made me more weary than the plain truth.

It's over. That's it, it's over. Our country has been taken from us.

The genocide will be invigorated, and any hope of U.S. pressure bringing it to an end is gone. I'm so sorry.

Everyone with a uterus will lose any semblance of human rights they once enjoyed. You can say goodbye to being considered a human being, you can say goodbye to any consensus whatsoever that your very life ever mattered.

Every queer and transgender person will face outright persecution and lose the right to so much as exist as themselves, alongside which even cishet people will lose all right to self-expression.

Immigrants will lose whatever fragile hold they had allowing them to pursue life and happiness in this country and will be forced away from their families, jobs, and loved ones if not worse.

Police abuse against people of color and any political dissenters will be invigorated and their immunity from justice will expand.

The prices will continue to rise and the wages will drop or remain stagnant at best.

Disabled Americans, including any American with any pre-existing condition, will lose all access to healthcare as medical costs will skyrocket and our meager insurance will be stripped of us. We will be left in the street to die.

So don't fucking tell me to "hold onto hope" and don't you dare fucking tell me "we will be okay." Who is we? It isn't me, or any of my friends or loved ones. There is not a single person I know that doesn't fall into at least one of the above-mentioned categories. Not one person in this country am I acquainted with who has neither a functioning uterus, nor ANY medical condition whatsoever, nor is an immigrant or from an immigrant family, nor is a person of color, nor is a member of the LGBTQ+ community. Think about it. Do you?

So, in God's name, who the fuck is "gonna be okay"? Anyone lucky enough to survive? Anyone who lucks out and manages to avoid a dangerous pregnancy (which will be soo easy once we lose access to birth control, I'm sure), or manages to stay under the ICE's radar, or manages not to be pulled over by a pig who needs to take out his rage over his wife surviving her last beating, or manages to not get sick or injured ever again? That's somehow not as comforting as people think it is.

And as for the genocide, I'm so sorry. I'm so, so, so sorry that my country has once again failed the people of Palestine. I hope all the people who abstained from voting because Kamala wasn't pro-Palestinian enough feel really good about themselves when they watch countless more children being slaughtered as Israel is bolstered in its capacity to accelerate the genocide beyond any level we've seen thusfar. I'm so, so sorry to my brothers and sisters in Palestine. I'm so sorry that we failed you.

This isn't to say we should stop fighting. But the time for hope and handholding and singing kumbaya is over. Compassion and love have failed, today has proved that. Violence is our only option left.

[relaxedstyles]

If only all interviews were in this style ...

[ignatiusteto]

i think sacred music in the kryn dynasty would be very cyclical and repetitive in form to symbolize the idea that life is a continuous thing (at least those who are consecuted right right) and is a cycle across lifetimes and yeah

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

EU deforestation law delay brings losses to most vigilant

Companies that have paid to source agricultural produce that complies with the European Union's anti-deforestation law would lose out if the EU decides to delay implementing the legislation by a year, industry groups and traders said.

Deforestation is the second largest source of the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change after the burning of fossil fuels, according to the European Commission. The EU had planned to ban the import of commodities from suppliers unable to prove their goods were not linked to deforestation.

The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) would have impacted imports of cocoa, coffee, cattle, soy, oil palm, timber, rubber and related products like chocolate and leather.

It was scheduled to come into effect on Dec. 30, but last week the EU Commission proposed a 12-month delay, under pressure from industries and governments who said it would cause supply chain disruptions, exclude poor, small-scale farmers from the EU market, and drive up the cost of basic foodstuffs because many farmers and suppliers were not ready to comply.

Continue reading.

[head-post]

European banks cutting jobs in “year of reckoning”

Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing notified his staff on Thursday, saying he was going to reduce the number of employees, including managers. HSBC Holdings CEO Georges Elhedery said earlier this week that he was closing large parts of his investment bank in Europe and the United States, according to Luxembourg Times.

Even Swiss private banks have not escaped the turmoil, with UBS Group cutting hundreds of jobs in its home market and Julius Baer Group set to announce a wave of layoffs over the next two years.

Sewing told reporters that 2025 will be a “year of reckoning,” adding that “nothing is off limits.”

Behind all these disparate moves is a drive to boost lagging profits, a problem that could become more acute as the new Trump administration’s approach to business deregulation in the US puts European lenders at a disadvantage to their Wall Street rivals. In addition, stagnant growth in the European Union is further dampening the outlook for lending organisations in the region.

The contrast between banks in Europe and the US is already stark. Jeremy Barnum, Chief Financial Officer of JPMorgan Chase, which this month announced the biggest profit in its history, said one of the biggest challenges he faced was the “high-stakes” dilemma of what to do with all the excess capital the bank generates. Goldman Sachs Group CEO David Solomon’s message sounded confident as he spoke of the company preparing for a revival of deals.

“It’s a reflection of how European banks have struggled to compete with their US peers” since the global financial crisis, said John Cronin, a Dublin-based financial industry analyst and founder of SeaPoint Insights. “If anything, given the new pro-growth Trump administration, the top five US banks will become relatively stronger over the coming years.”

On Thursday, Deutsche Bank’s Sewing pointed to the possibility of management ranks and even entire business lines shrinking in the coming years. That came after a 14 per cent rise in fourth-quarter costs from a year earlier overshadowed better-than-expected performance at the investment bank, where fixed-income traders posted their best fourth quarter ever.

Earlier this week, Bloomberg News reported that UBS had begun a wave of job cuts in Switzerland, with hundreds of employees receiving notices in recent weeks. The measure is part of an ongoing integration with Credit Suisse, a former rival that the company bought as part of an emergency rescue two years ago.

UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti told Bloomberg this month that it would continue to reduce headcount after the historic acquisition. The Swiss lender is seeking to cut another $5.5bn (5.3bn euros) on top of the $7.5bn already achieved after the deal.

The cuts at Julius Baer will be across all divisions and the bank’s 15-member executive board will also be significantly reduced, Bloomberg News reported this week. Under the leadership of CEO Stefan Bollinger, the Zurich-based asset management firm is looking to complete a turnaround that began after losses at defunct real estate empire Signa. The bank employed about 7,400 people at the end of 2023.

Julius Baer is due to report fourth-quarter results on February 3 and UBS the following day.

Of course, not all is gloomy for European lenders. Some of them are planning to raise their payouts this year. According to Bloomberg News, Deutsche Bank plans to increase bonuses to its investment bankers by 10 per cent this month, while BNP Paribas plans to increase bonuses to its investment bankers by 5 per cent. Barclays is set to increase payouts by 20% after what has been a better year for traders and advisers.

But the biggest changes at HSBC are likely to come in June. Since taking over five months ago, CEO Elderi has become the man aiming to completely transform the UK lender.

“Going forward we will focus on areas where we can best serve our corporate and institutional clients,” said Elhedery’s lieutenant Michael Roberts, who heads the corporate and institutional banking division.

Still, the bank will have a strong presence in Asia, especially China and Hong Kong, and the Middle East.

“I don’t think this is about having to make a difficult choice between serving China versus serving the West – it’s about cold hard commercial facts,” said Alex Marshall, managing partner at CIL, a consultancy firm. It is “a realistic and pragmatic doubling-down of their bet on Asia and MENA capital flows” and it’s not that they are really abandoning a position of great strength in Europe and the US, he said.

Read more HERE

[munaeem]

The Decline of European Stability: An In-Depth Analysis

Europe is now grappling with multiple crises at the same time. An economic downturn looms ahead as the EU’s primary industrial sectors progressively weaken. This will be our focal point shortly. Additionally, political instability is growing. Both the French and German governments face turmoil. They are barely clinging to power amidst waning popularity. Another crisis gripping the EU is of a…

[thoughtportal]

I cannot recommend this podcast interview with Cory Docotorow enough. It's about so much more than green tech and enshittification. anyone who uses the internet should listen.

[tweetingukpolitics]

“Niesr’s latest study starts with some welcome honesty, Brexit is not the only cause of the UK’s problems – it has just added to the woes of the credit crunch and numerous other issues. With a resultant slowing of growth (and productivity which the latest data shows is actually still getting worse) it has cost the UK sorely. British workers should be about 10% better off than we are.”

[returquoise]

Finnish votes after about 60% of votes have been counted

(Parties in order: National Coalition, Left Alliance, Social Democrats, Centre Party, Green League, Finns Party, Swedish People's Party, Christian Democrats)

The darker colored blocks and +/- beside them indicate change from 2019 European elections.

Centre Party is in Renew Europe, Christian Democrats in EPP, and everyone else matches their EU group colours. Edit// actually they don't because apparently the national broadcaster has better colour coding than official European Parliament website ahahahaha. ((Swedish People's party is also in Renew Europe, National Coalition is in EPP, Finns in ECR, red parties and Greens can be matched by names)

Current Finnish Parliament majority/government parties: National Coalition, Finns Party, Swedish People's Party and Christian Democrat. This government took power in Spring 2023.