#2028 primary

[critical-skeptic]

Does Democracy Have a Chance Or Is This America's Epilogue?

The fact that Democratic leaders are still clashing over who gets to run where, while the entire system teeters, should tell you everything you need to know: they’re too distracted to prioritize survival. We are watching a slow-motion collapse, and they’re backstage arguing about who deserves top billing in a dying show. The world isn’t just metaphorically burning; it’s openly smoldering on every front—authoritarian power grabs, oligarchic entrenchment, and populist fanatics are tearing down our civic infrastructure. Instead of shoring up defenses, Democrats obsess over which identity group to appease next, as though chanting different verses of “Kumbaya” at each other will somehow hold back the tide.

This is what passes for strategy: endless purity tests, virtue signals, and factional infighting. Ironically, the only consensus they seem to reach is on the need to prove how morally superior they are, as if righteousness alone can stop an actual coup. Meanwhile, those who prefer the world in ashes—authoritarians, demagogues, and billionaires whose wealth has quadrupled—are more than happy to watch the left’s self-immolation. Every progressive ritual that excludes potential allies or demonizes pragmatic solutions only strengthens those who thrive on chaos. Look hard at this pattern: the paralysis, the obsession with optics, the refusal to excise the extremists on the left’s own fringes. It’s a gift to the right’s war machine.

Let’s be blunt: this insistence on ideological purity is killing any real chance at countering the onslaught. The movement has become so terrified of offending its own fringe elements that it stifles legitimate criticism, lets crucial battles go unfought, and alienates both moderates and the millions trapped between two dysfunctional extremes. What’s the result? Resentment from centrists, disillusionment among would-be allies, and a public image of a party too busy with ego contests to mount an effective defense against the very real threat of authoritarian rule. Instead of building a broad, disciplined coalition, Democrats play theater, as if moral posturing alone can halt the steady erosion of democracy.

This isn’t a plea for centrism, nor a capitulation to the status quo. It’s a demand for backbone and disciplined action. Ideals mean nothing if we can’t secure the structural integrity of the system long enough to implement them. There is no point in preaching progressive values while extremists and oligarchs set about dismantling the very framework needed to enact those values. Without a stable foundation, justice is impossible; without a functional government, ideals remain slogans on placards, easily swept away when stronger forces kick down the door.

If the left wants to outmaneuver the extremism consuming our institutions, it must learn to prioritize. It must stop pretending that endless internal rituals of moral one-upmanship lead anywhere but ruin. Dumping the dead weight of performative purity and facing the hard truth—yes, that means telling some factions “no”—is the only way to stand firm. Embrace strategic pragmatism. Form alliances that, while imperfect, get the job done. Focus on immediate existential threats rather than fighting over who’s the purest progressive in the room.

The stakes could not be higher. Our institutions are under siege by forces that thrive on division, and every minute spent in self-indulgent squabbling grants them another inch. Morality without strategy is self-sabotage. If Democrats—and anyone who values an open, stable society—want to survive this era, they need to step off their soapboxes, kick out the elements that corrode cohesion, and line up behind a ruthless pragmatism that prioritizes lasting stability.

Stop performing and start governing. The time for elegant speeches and tribal ceremonies ended long ago. If the left can’t bring itself to mature beyond these theatrics, then it’s simply inviting the collapse that its enemies are counting on. The world needs action, not another round of self-righteous pageantry. It needs leaders who can confront threats head-on, who understand that protecting a future worth having requires getting their hands dirty now. It needs a movement ready to fight fires, not argue over who holds the hose.

[jewish-sideblog]

Young USAmericans will straight up say “Why do we have to pick between two super old dudes! I hate this” and then proceed to vote at half the rate that octogenarians do. Like idk bestie maybe if you had actually showed up to the polls to vote for a candidate you respected during the primaries this wouldn’t be an issue

[cherryblossomshadow]

Run a Left Wing Democratic Primary Candidate in 2028. No Matter What.

Stopping the party's rightward drift means having a real primary.

Hamilton Nolan Oct 06, 2024

Excerpts:

The scariest possible outcome of the 2024 presidential contest is a Trump victory. The second scariest outcome, however, is a scenario in which center-right, anti-Trump voters pour into the Democratic Party and elect Kamala Harris and then proceed to pull the Democratic Party to the right. This scenario is extremely plausible. Back to the Clinton era we go!

.

This is not theoretical. This process is unfolding right now.

Harris is not just accepting the support of these Republicans. She is leaning into it.

She did not just accept Dick Cheney’s vote; she did a rally with Liz Cheney and thanked Dick Cheney for “what he has done to serve our country.” … the FT reports that “Two finance executives close to Harris said they had been reassured by her that she could appoint new officials to the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Trade Commission who would take a less aggressive stance than current chairs Gary Gensler and Lina Khan,” which would be a catastrophic loss. And her economic plan, though still vague, is notably less oriented towards the perspective of strengthening labor, and more oriented towards consumer-centric policies that do not attack the dangers of concentrated economic power at its roots.

.

When Joe Biden was running in 2020, I expected him to exhibit this sort of centrist drift as president. In fact, he did the opposite, appointing Lina Khan at the FTC and Jennifer Abbruzzo at the NLRB and carrying out the most progressive and pro-worker economic agenda of any president in my lifetime. Why did lifelong moderate Joe Biden, the credit card industry’s favorite senator, end up doing so much good economic policy? One major reason is that after a tightly contested 2020 primary campaign that Bernie Sanders looked for a time like he might win, Biden made the choice to bring the left wing of the party into the fold, rather than slamming the door in their face.

He created a formal “Biden-Sanders Unity Task Force” that hammered out a set of policy recommendations for his term.

He gave progressives like Elizabeth Warren significant input into staffing decisions for parts of his administration.

After watching Democratic presidents freeze out the left for decades, I failed to anticipate Biden’s willingness to allow the left some real policy power. It was a political decision, and it doesn’t mean that Biden himself is a resounding progressive, but that doesn’t matter.

What matters is that the Biden presidency produced hugely important tangible victories for progressive economic values.

There is no reason to think that this is the new normal. Political parties are coalitions that are always shifting. It is extremely possible that a Kamala Harris administration would see the pendulum swing back towards neoliberalism, as a result of more right wingers seeping into the Democratic Party, and as a result of Harris greedily seeking out the support of disaffected parts of the traditional Republican base. Rather than just wringing my hands about this possibility, let me suggest a useful response:

If Harris wins the presidency, the left wing of the party needs to start planning now for a primary campaign against her in 2028.

What was the biggest factor pulling Biden to the left? Bernie Sanders’ strong primary showing.

What is allowing Harris to drift right with ease? The fact that the only counterpoint to her in the public mind is Trump.

Strong primary campaigns serve to demonstrate the power of various parts of a party’s coalition. They create political risk for the other candidates and force them to try to adapt to win the support of those other candidates’ voters. Think about RFK Jr., for fuck’s sake: a true unhinged lunatic, a man who should be listened to for nothing but comedy value, and yet one who has managed to make his priorities a part of Trump’s platform just by being the only real challenger floating around at the moment.

.

Primaries are the proper and designated place for this sort of contest of intra-party factions to play out.

(I advocated a leftist primary challenge of Biden centered on Gaza in particular for this very reason.)

.

Bernie Sanders never won the presidential nomination, but the fact that he garnered so much support in two consecutive campaigns did a great deal to force the party left, and laid the groundwork for the successes of the progressive agenda during Biden’s term. Now, as all of the Democratic candidate’s positions get compared to Trump’s fascism rather than to Bernie’s progressivism, we can see that the backsliding to the center is set to begin anew. This year, I hope, we will beat Trump. As soon as we do, start thinking about who to run in 2028. No need for the left to cower in the corner for four years. This is how democracy works.

.

One handy fact to note is that organized labor could fold its 2028 general strike right into a 2028 Shawn Fain For President campaign. Dare to dream, my friends.

[electronalytics]

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[nodynasty4us]

More from the October 6, 2024 essay by Hamilton Nolan:

It is extremely possible that a Kamala Harris administration would see the pendulum swing back towards neoliberalism, as a result of more right wingers seeping into the Democratic Party, and as a result of Harris greedily seeking out the support of disaffected parts of the traditional Republican base. Rather than just wringing my hands about this possibility, let me suggest a useful response: If Harris wins the presidency, the left wing of the party needs to start planning now for a primary campaign against her in 2028. What was the biggest factor pulling Biden to the left? Bernie Sanders’ strong primary showing. What is allowing Harris to drift right with ease? The fact that the only counterpoint to her in the public mind is Trump. Strong primary campaigns serve to demonstrate the power of various parts of a party’s coalition. They create political risk for the other candidates and force them to try to adapt to win the support of those other candidates’ voters.

Any time you threaten to primary your own party’s sitting president you will inevitably hear a zillion angry accusations that you are helping the other side, that you are weakening your own party. Fuck that. Primaries are the proper and designated place for this sort of contest of intra-party factions to play out.

If the left is pissed with the direction of the Democratic Party and all the leftists say “fuck it” and don’t vote at all, that hurts the Democratic Party. If the left is pissed with the direction of the Democratic Party and the leftists launch a third party that sucks votes from the Democratic candidate, that hurts the Democratic Party. But if the left is pissed with the direction of the Democratic Party and therefore run their own candidate in the Democratic primary, that helps the Democratic Party. Electorally, it helps by keeping leftists engaged in and voting with the party. Politically, it helps by pulling the median policy position of the eventual primary winner to the left. Morally, it helps by giving voters at least one uncompromised candidate to vote for—a candidate who is, the voters will see, not located in the Republican Party. Bernie Sanders never won the presidential nomination, but the fact that he garnered so much support in two consecutive campaigns did a great deal to force the party left, and laid the groundwork for the successes of the progressive agenda during Biden’s term. Now, as all of the Democratic candidate’s positions get compared to Trump’s fascism rather than to Bernie’s progressivism, we can see that the backsliding to the center is set to begin anew. This year, I hope, we will beat Trump. As soon as we do, start thinking about who to run in 2028. No need for the left to cower in the corner for four years. This is how democracy works.

[hesperocyon-lesbian]

Prediction for the 2028 Democratic primary: Pete Buttigieg is going to get divorced and run as proudly ex-gay

[thebreakfastgenie]

Democrats, consistently and quite admirably, want to not just win, but win as The Adult In The Room. This worked when Republicans were at least pretending to play the same game, but in the Trump age they're resigned to the fact that the president is just there to be a mascot for their pet Cabinet secretaries, judges, etc to ride on. Even if the Dems could stoop down to this level, should they? If they could be guaranteed the White House in 2028 by running a celeb with zero experience or interest in governing (like a Twitch streamer or an MCU star or hell, Billy Joel), would you say that's worth it?

This is a harder question than I thought it would be.

I will say first that I don't think running a celebrity would work (although someday I will find the Billy Joel 2016 campaign logo I drew) for Democrats and I'm not persuaded running a non-Trump celebrity would work for Republicans. But in a hypothetical where it would guarantee a win..... a liberal puppet who would appoint qualified people to run departments and sign legislation passed by qualified Dem legislators and listen to advisors.... it's hard to say no to that outright. I think we should though. I think that's a temptation we should resist. Because at the end of the day your celebrity with a good heart but no interest in governing or idea how to do it has the nuclear codes. The presidency is a job and I want someone who can do it well. The skillset that makes someone good at governing isn't exactly the same skillset that makes them good at campaigning, which is a recurring problem (Hillary Clinton would have been excellent at governing, for example). Democrats want to win as the adult in the room because they believe our leaders should be adults. I still believe that. Governing competently is important. One of the reasons I supported Biden over some other candidates I aligned with slightly more ideologically in the 2020 primary is I had tremendous faith in his ability to govern (I was right to! unfortunately most of the country didn't notice. they rarely do when things are going well).

However, I think Dems should start playing a little dirtier. If we get a Dem House majority now or in 2026 they should obstruct the hell out of everything. They should go mask off and say our priority is not allowed Trump to do anything, like Repubclians said about Obama. If they get an opportunity to do some shit like hold a SCOTUS seat open for months they should do it. But I don't think they should run a celebrity. I think we can stop trying so hard to be the adults in the room without completely acting like children.

[reasonsforhope]

"This year the world will make something like 70bn of these solar cells, the vast majority of them in China, and sandwich them between sheets of glass to make what the industry calls modules but most other people call panels: 60 to 72 cells at a time, typically, for most of the modules which end up on residential roofs, more for those destined for commercial plant. Those panels will provide power to family homes, to local electricity collectives, to specific industrial installations and to large electric grids; they will sit unnoticed on roofs, charmingly outside rural schools, controversially across pristine deserts, prosaically on the balconies of blocks of flats and in almost every other setting imaginable.

Once in place they will sit there for decades, making no noise, emitting no fumes, using no resources, costing almost nothing and generating power. It is the least obtrusive revolution imaginable. But it is a revolution nonetheless.

Over the course of 2023 the world’s solar cells, their panels currently covering less than 10,000 square kilometres, produced about 1,600 terawatt-hours of energy (a terawatt, or 1tw, is a trillion watts). That represented about 6% of the electricity generated world wide, and just over 1% of the world’s primary-energy use. That last figure sounds fairly marginal, though rather less so when you consider that the fossil fuels which provide most of the world’s primary energy are much less efficient. More than half the primary energy in coal and oil ends up as waste heat, rather than electricity or forward motion.

What makes solar energy revolutionary is the rate of growth which brought it to this just-beyond-the-marginal state. Michael Liebreich, a veteran analyst of clean-energy technology and economics, puts it this way:

In 2004, it took the world a whole year to install a gigawatt of solar-power capacity... In 2010, it took a month In 2016, a week. In 2023 there were single days which saw a gigawatt of installation worldwide. Over the course of 2024 analysts at BloombergNEF, a data outfit, expect to see 520-655gw of capacity installed: that’s up to two 2004s a day...

And it shows no signs of stopping, or even slowing down. Buying and installing solar panels is currently the largest single category of investment in electricity generation, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), an intergovernmental think-tank: it expects $500bn this year, not far short of the sum being put into upstream oil and gas. Installed capacity is doubling every three years. According to the International Solar Energy Society:

Solar power is on track to generate more electricity than all the world’s nuclear power plants in 2026 Than its wind turbines in 2027 Tthan its dams in 2028 Its gas-fired power plants in 2030 And its coal-fired ones in 2032.

In an IEA scenario which provides net-zero carbon-dioxide emissions by the middle of the century, solar energy becomes humankind’s largest source of primary energy—not just electricity—by the 2040s...

Expecting exponentials to carry on is rarely a basis for sober forecasting. At some point either demand or supply faces an unavoidable constraint; a graph which was going up exponentially starts to take on the form of an elongated S. And there is a wide variety of plausible stories about possible constraints...

All real issues. But the past 20 years of solar growth have seen naive extrapolations trounce forecasting soberly informed by such concerns again and again. In 2009, when installed solar capacity worldwide was 23gw, the energy experts at the IEA predicted that in the 20 years to 2030 it would increase to 244gw. It hit that milestone in 2016, when only six of the 20 years had passed. According to Nat Bullard, an energy analyst, over most of the 2010s actual solar installations typically beat the IEA’s five-year forecasts by 235% (see chart). The people who have come closest to predicting what has actually happened have been environmentalists poo-pooed for zealotry and economic illiteracy, such as those at Greenpeace who, also in 2009, predicted 921gw of solar capacity by 2030. Yet even that was an underestimate. The world’s solar capacity hit 1,419gw last year.

-via The Economist, June 20, 2024

--

Note: That graph. Is fucking ridiculous(ly hopeful).

For perspective: the graph shows that in 2023, there were about 350 GW of solar installed. The 5-year prediction from 2023 said that we'd end up around 450 GW by 2030.

We hit over 600 GW in the first half of 2024 alone.

This is what's called an exponential curve. It's a curve that keeps going up at a rate that gets higher and higher with each year.

This, I firmly believe, is a huge part of what is going to let us save the world.

[argumate]

if Trump wins 2024 then the Republican party can start planning for the post-Trump future but if he loses they're faced with the grim prospect of having to primary his shambling corpse in 2028

[democracyunderground]

DEMOCRACY UNDERGROUND

I'm changing the name of my political blog from RidenWithBiden to DemocracyUnderground.

I voted for Kamala Harris this time around, and I would again. I hope that she's the Democratic Party nominee in 2028. She came much closer to winning, than mass media has portrayed. No one was going to beat Don the Con, Elon, and the rigged Republicon Party.

While I'm left of center, I vote with the Democratic Party. But, I voted for Bernie Sanders in the Ohio Primary, not Hillary Clinton in 2016. I'm an advocate for the Environment, first and foremost, as well as Human Rights, Equal Rights, Women Rights, Black Lives, and Native Lives. I believe deeply in the Separation of Church and State, I'm Agnostic, but not an Atheist.

I'm a Democratic Socialist, and an Idealist. But, I'm also a Realist. However, I differ significantly with others that identify as such. I do not spend the majority of my time focused on the failures of the Democrats, I try to stay focused on the success of the Democrats, and the complete failures, fraud, and wage theft of Reaganomics, for most of my lifetime.

I've been warning people about the rise of Fascism since 1989. Global Warming, and the War on the Environment, the controlling interests and concentration of the Media Monopolies, the Historic Hypocrisy of Corporate Christians, the rise of Corporate Fascism, and the Treasons and Wars of Republicons for decades, including Nixon, Reagan, Bush, Bush Jr. and Trump.

I believe in a true Free Market Economy, which I do not think America has ever had. So, I will not declare myself as Anti-Capitalist, Socialist, or Marxist. I believe it is a consistent mistake on our part to use the language they establish, or the Monotheistic Dualism that dominates our discussions in terms of good and evil, right and wrong, black and white, male and female, gay or straight, democratic or republican, left or right, young and old, rich or poor, capitalist or anti-capitalist, fascist or anti-fascist, and so on. If we go to battle on their terms we lose. 

I hope that people will stay with my page, share it, and expand on it. But, I do not engage with the trolls, at all. Thanks, Hank

[noonesgaylikegatson]

Here's the thing: Republicans are the party of the rich, but policies that help the rich fuck everyone else up, so they are inherently unpopular. Republicans hitch their wagons to white supremacists and religious fanatics who will gladly vote for them in hopes of bringing their own agenda. Rich people believe that their money is able to keep them unaffected by their social policies that harm mostly minorities.

Present day: Religious Fanatics and White Supremacists have gone too far. Their plans are so corrosive that they will actually affect the rich; Not to mention, there are a lot of nouveau rich who are also these fanatics.

So now, these rich people, "never-trumpers" want to join the democratic party and make it into a party for them. They are anti-progressive because they don't want to pay more taxes and they don't want more regulations. They want a milquetoast white democrat leader, and not one like Joe Biden who has embraced progressive policies and is now further left than 2008.

They don't want Kamala or Pete Buttigieg or Corey Booker or that skater boi from texas. They were to the left of Biden when they ran in the 2019 primary. They want someone to the right of Biden. A more corporate friendly democrat.

And keep in mind, these republicans have always been racist. And have always been white supremacist for them. This departure from the republican party is not a moral one. It's because the oppression that these Trump Republicans want isn't profitable.

These republicans were fine with rounding up Black people on bullshit charges and sending them to prison to do make them money on prison labor. (Biden ended the use of private prisons on a Federal Level fyi). They're not fine with rounding up 20 million undocumented people and putting them in internment camps and deporting them, that would cost so much money that would be better spent giving to them via tax cuts. (I bet you they'll get on board when someone touts the idea of using the undocumented people for unpaid labor)

They're okay with banning abortions or just limiting. They're not okay with stripping all of woman's freedoms (because many of them are women and like to spend the money they have) because women going back into the homes, means the spending power of the economy shrinks.

Less Women and Men of color going to college means less student loan payments. Not to mention, the policies that Trump will enact with Project 2025, would just wreck the economy. Government workers would lose their jobs. Facilities and infrastructure would crumble. The middle class would all but disappear, the gap between the poor and rich would grow, to the point where there is just no more money to extract from anyone in the lower classes. The money would have to come from them.

If trump gets in office by 2028 there will be so many evictions, its impossible to keep up. The rich would have to bribe police officers (made legal by the supreme court btw) to get people evicted. Not all rich people are rich equally. Those who can afford to bribe will be new upper class, those who can't will be suckers.

FDIC will be gone. So imagine you're one of those rich suckers, and the bank you have your money goes belly up cause the new upper class used it to fund their next yacht?

You can't be a tech mogul in a country with poor infrastructure. All that AI requires massive amount of electricity. How can you have any developments if your company shuts off the power every few weeks and there is no policy in place to keep it going, to fix it. Look at texas? Every hurricane gets rid of the power for weeks. Imagine when Project 2025 gets in and there really is no regulation at all.

What is the point of all this? Biden is the correct choice. He is the incumbent, he won the primary, and the election is less than four months away. This talk about replacing him is a bunch of rich assholes trying to take over the democratic party and making it into the new republican party. The literal worst night mare: socially liberal, financially conservative. They are antagonist towards the democrat's base: Black voters, because black voting population support centralized government, regulations, higher taxes, and a robust social safety network (because its literally the best way to govern)

Focus on getting people to vote for Biden or just not vote for Trump.

[gsirvitor]

This man is spiraling, fast.

He's rushed through the phases of Leftist rationale in like one paragraph.

First he claims the Dems didn't make Joe step down, then he says that if they did, it's their right and it's a good thing, then he says that they don't have to hold primaries, like what?

The first step to losing an election is not holding a primary and just installing a candidate, as proven by Kamala.

Then he acts like Republicans hate Trump, oblivious to the fact only RINOs despise Trump, while the populist, nationalist base supports him.

The Republican Primaries this time around were a courtesy for the next election cycle, to get people introduced for when Trump could no longer run in 2028, not to replace Trump as the candidate.

Also, way to go mentioning Pence, that's a man Republicans hate and RINOs love.

Want to see something worse than the election cope?

Man is defending the Federal government slaughtering children, burning them alive, every member of the FBI and ATF involved deserves worse than death.

It isn't about David Koresh or the Branch Davidians being the "good guys," it's about government overreach and the senseless slaughter of innocents.

You defending the Waco massacre is another reason I deny you're a Liberal, you're a boot throating leftist, Mitch, and I despise you.

[tribulation-of-somnolence]

Now that this year's election is over, I'll go ahead and predict who will be running in the 2028 election. Starting with the GOP:

Vance or Don Jr as the frontrunner. Trump carbon copy.

RFK.

Someone like DeSantis or Cruz. Not quite Trump, but heavily Trump-aligned.

An actual Never-Trumper. Someone like Liz Cheney or Kinzinger.

At least one candidate whom nobody on earth knew existed prior to their announcement in 2027.

Jeb!

Elon Musk (token African-American)

Now for the Dems:

Kamala tries to make a comeback. Does about as well as she did last time she ran in a primary.

Bernie, again. Same story, again.

Michelle Obama.

Pete Buttigieg.

Some congressman from some flyover state who has been in office since the 70s yet nobody recognizes him from Adam, not even his own constituents.

Taylor Swift.

[transmascpetewentz]

democratic platform in 2028 if they want to win:

$20 federal minimum wage

stronger protections for unions

abolishing prison slavery by making the minimum wage for prison labor start at $15

medicare for all

federal cannabis legalization and regulation

decriminalize possession of psychedelics and promote regulated research into their benefits in treating mental health conditions

federally funded harm reduction programs and official recognition of the drug problem as a public health epidemic

remove gender from all personal government documents

trans healthcare legalized federally for all

abortion legalized federally

more government funding to medical and climate research

government funded national public transit program connecting the 30 biggest cities to each other

national fracking ban

national coal regulations to encourage the development of nuclear power as our primary source of energy

updated safety standards across industries

[somethingusefulfromflorida]

I've had a few people tell me that they think JD Vance will be president within the year, but I don't buy that. There are a lot of avenues for Donald Trump to leave office, and not a single one of them seems plausible to me.

He's probably not going to die of natural causes. He's about four years younger than Joe Biden, meaning he's basically the same age today as Biden was back in 2021; the fact that Joe Biden is still alive, and the fact that Trump's mom lived to be 88 and his dad lived to be 93, mean it's very likely Trump will still be alive well into the 2030s (if he matches Jimmy Carter, he'll make it to 2046... God help us all...)

He probably won't be assassinated. After the attempt in July, he's sure to get the highest level of secret security any human being has ever had. Nobody will be able to get close to him. (I'm still convinced the attempt was a false flag; he had a squib of fake blood behind his ear, the "shooter" was a patsy, and the secret service shot some random schmuck in the crowd to make it look real; but that's just a theory, a Conspiracy Theory™, thanks for watching!)

He will never be impeached because he owns the House and Senate; every single member who voted against him in 2021 is either gone or has announced plans to leave very soon. Mitt Romney was safe in Utah, but he chose to retire rather than face a primary challenge from a diehard Trump supporter. No Republican in Congress will ever defy Trump again, not when he's the one who appointed the majority of the Supreme Court (methinks Thomas and Alito may resign soon so they doesn't end up pulling a Ginsburg by dying with a future Democrat in office; if not them, Roberts will almost certainly be blackmailed/bribed to retire like Kennedy in 2018).

JD Vance and the cabinet will probably never invoke the 25th amendment to remove him. Trump is not a smart man, but he has the world's strongest self-preservation instinct. I concede that he's easy enough to manipulate because he surrounds himself with opportunistic yes men who know how to butter him up and betray him when it becomes convenient (look at the staff turnover from his first term, all the sycophants who turned around and wrote tell-all books which nobody has ever bothered to read), but I think he has enough true loyalists in his pocket to warn him of any potential schemes behind the scenes. I don't think a majority of his cabinet picks would ally themselves against him because they'd be politically crucified. The rest of the party would back him 100%; Donald Trump IS the Republican Party, so no faction within it can get rid of him, and the mouth-breathers who voted for him would riot if they tried.

I don't think there exists a single scenario in any universe across any possible multiverse in the totality of creation in which Donald Trump would choose to resign from office under his own free will. None. That will NEVER happen. He is a narcissist who relishes in having complete control over his party; he is their face, their voice, their avatar. He is not the kind of person who would willingly step out of the limelight and pass the torch to someone else. Even when he's out of office in 2029 he'll still be president vicariously through whichever successor the Democrats fail to defeat. He's never going to disappear; Ronald Reagan disappeared because he had Alzheimer's and was embarrassed of being seen in public as he deteriorated, but Trump has no shame and none of his family members care enough about him to keep him at home when his mind is gone, they'll parade his catatonic husk around until he dies, and even then he'll have enough instinct left in him to smile and give thumbs up for the camera.

JD Vance will almost certainly get Trump's endorsement in 2028 and effectively run unopposed the same way Trump did in 2024 (nominal opposition that never stood a snowball's chance in hell; Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley were NEVER going to get the nomination over Trump), but I don't think he's going to become president before then. Trump won't let him.