#thing about this also is the people who are not voting are either people who REALLY don't care

[obvious-humor]

That's part of the picture.

TL;DR:

Lower turnout mostly happened in Democratic states where it didn't affect the outcome.

Higher turnout mostly happened in states where it did affect the outcome... for Trump.

Trump won the election partly by flipping votes D-to-R in key states, but mostly by gaining a significant majority or even near-entirety of increased turnout. For votes gained, about 40% were flipped, and 60% were from increased turnout.

Comparing 2024 to 2020, using numbers from The Cook Political Report's Vote Tracker for 2024 and 2020,

Trump 2024 got 76,995,683 votes

Trump 2020 74,223,369 votes

Harris 2024 got 74,521,173 votes

Biden 2020 got 81,282,916 votes

So the margin is roughly +2.7M for Trump, -6.76M for Democrats.

The other part of the picture is that, of the people who did vote, the margin shifted toward Republicans in all 50 states.

Notably, the rightward shift wasn't entirely due to lower turnout. Here's what the turnout looked like:

By the numbers, the notable negative outliers are:

California (-10.6%, around 2 million less),

Mississippi (-8.9%, around 200,000 less),

Illinois (-7.4%, around 450,000 less),

New York (-7.2%, around 616,000 less),

Massachusetts (-6.2%, around 230,000 less),

New Jersey (-5.9%, around 267,000 less).

The notable positive outliers are:

Nevada (+5.7%, around 80,000 more),

Georgia (+5%, around 250,000 more),

Idaho (+4.2%, around 40,000 more),

Wisconsin (+3.7%, around 120,000 more),

Michigan (+2.3%, around 125,000 more).

So one thing that stands out is that actually, lower turnout mostly happened in Democratic states where it didn't affect the outcome. The best examples of this are California, New York, Illinois, Oregon, Washington. The states that had increased turnout actually went for Trump -- notably, Georgia flipped from D+0.2 to R+2.2 due to stronger increased Republican turnout compared to slightly increased Democrat turnout. Michigan flipped from D+2.8 to R+1.4 with Trump winning by around 80,000 votes relative to an increased turnout of around 125,000.

Looking more closely at Michigan in 2024 and 2020, we see that

Trump 2024 got 2,816,636 votes

Trump 2020 got 2,649,852 votes

Harris 2024 got 2,736,533 votes

Biden 2020 got 2,804,040 votes

So Dems lost around 68,000 votes, and Trump gained around 167,000 votes. If every single one of the increased 130,000 voters went to Trump, that means he still managed to flip at least 37,000 of the 2020 Democrat votes. In this scenario, that means 31,000 Democrat votes vanished between 2020 and 2024. Looking at it from the other direction, if every single lost Democrat vote went to Trump, then that's still 99,000 of the increased votes that Trump gained. In equation form,

Trump gained x new votes and flipped y votes,

while (68,000 - y) previously Democrat votes didn't flip for Trump; they either voted for someone else or didn't vote.

(x+y) = 167,000

Taking a look at the alternative vote:

Around 111,000 votes for someone else in 2024.

Around 85,000 votes for someone else in 2020.

So 26,000 of the increased votes went to someone else.

So around 99,000 of the increased votes went to Trump or Harris.

The total voter population didn't increase significantly, either, so increased voters were largely existing registered voters. And if that 99,000 number looks familiar, it's because we just used it in the hypothetical scenario where Trump flipped every lost Democrat vote. So it's actually a fairly likely outcome. We can mostly say that alternative voters are outside of the margin of error.

Again, the most likely takeaways here are:

Trump by and large gained every single flipped 2020 Democrat voter

Trump also by and large gained every single increased voter that didn't vote for an alternative

The increased turnout (~99,000) was moderately (~+50%) more than the flipped votes (~68,000). For every vote Trump gained, about 60% came from increased turnout, and 40% from flipped votes.

In this case, the increased voter turnout in Michigan went roughly 80% Trump, 20% alternative. The percentage of people who voted Biden 2020 but stayed home for 2024 is roughly 0%.

It's pretty safe to say that the other conclusion we can likely draw here is that higher turnout mostly happened in states where it did affect the outcome. Which checks out, I guess. If what happened in Michigan was even remotely similar to what happened in other states, then the lesson to be learned is that the election wasn't actually decided by the people who didn't vote. It was decided by the ones that usually don't, but did this time. For Trump.

Don't underestimate the GOTV efforts of the Trump 2024 campaign. They won the "battleground states" of Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania on the back of increased voter turnout. Arizona is the exception in turnout (about the same), but not in flipped votes -- 2020 had a near-tie at 1.66M votes D/R, 2024 had 1.77M R and 1.58M D, so the likely outcome here is that Trump flipped 100,000 votes from D to R. (Alternative voters in Arizona seem to be mostly Libertarians who stayed home; they went from around 50,000 Libertarian votes to around 36,000 combined Libertarian + Green votes. Libertarians went from 50K to 18K, and Greens went from 1.5K write-ins to 18K ballot votes. In any case, the alternative vote is almost an order of magnitude lower than the margin of flipped votes.)

So, what can Democrats do, or what should they focus on in 2028 (or 2026 for that matter)? Well, aside from the lack of enthusiasm among Democrats (as evidenced by lower turnout in blue states that stayed blue), they need to actually get people to vote for them in the states where it actually matters (as evidenced by higher turnout mostly going for Trump). It should be pretty clear that there is some link between enthusiasm or at least sentiment, and between voter turnout. I'll save the preaching on how Democrats can do that (read the fucking room y'all, no one wants "business as usual"), but like, the conclusions here aren't actually that crazy-sounding -- you win elections by getting people to vote for you, not by trying to get people to vote against your opponent. (If the United States had something like a "vote of no confidence" then that would be an altogether different matter.)

Footnotes:

I know I said that lower turnout was in blue states where it "didn't affect the outcome", but this is only for the presidential race. Increased voter turnout even in blue states has knock-on effects for other things on the ballot. Taking California as an example, Prop 6 to abolish prison slavery failed to pass because it only got 46.7% "Yes" votes... but this is 46.7% of the people who showed up to vote. If 6.8M voted yes and 7.8M voted no and 2M Democrats didn't vote... well, that's twice the margin. Granted, 75% of those 2M would have to vote "yes" to counterbalance the worst-case 25% of the 2M voting "no", but it's also possible for some of those 2M to not vote on the ballot measures. It is within the realm of possibility that the outcome of 2024 CA Prop 6 could have been flipped.

The same number of people voted for Trump in 2020.

The same number of people voted for 3rd party candidates in 2020.

15 million people who showed up for Biden, didn’t show up for Harris.

This election was decided by the people who didn’t vote.

[akascow]

okay so

i think the viktor and mel hallucinations during jayce's whole Moment in 2x07, their eyes are just completely black. and its VERY faint but u can KIND OF see the outline of their irises if u look REALLY close (irl)

to show u what i mean:

first ones are just normal settings (tho my computer brightness is all the way up), i only messed with the exposure n highlights of the pictures and stuff in the middle ones, and outlined the eyes in the third ones

​which could make sense in terms of his mental state i think ? he maybe feels like he let them down, or betrayed them or couldnt help them in a way ??

they dont feel human to him anymore. or maybe hes created these images so theyre judging him as he can only reminisce on what happened and how he left things

mel’s vision looks maybe like either angry, stubborn, strong willed or annoyed lol... her chin is kinda turned down, with downturned eyebrows, and her lower lids are halfway closed implying that shes like glaring or narrowing her eyes at him, her lips almost look pursed together and i think ? her nostrils are flared but its so hard to tell lmao we only get like three frames of over exposure HAAH take these with a grain of salt lmfao

viktor (even tho i cannot for the life of me read his expression HAHA) to the best of my ability i think kinda looks hurt or confused, maybe innocent for lack of a better term or scared. ((which given how he left jayce it would kinda fit lmao)) BUT his brows are ever so slightly scrunched together, one is higher than the other which usually implies confusion or thinking or admiring. eyes are wide open, mouth is agape a teenie bit, these are usually seen with softer, positive or more admirable expressions, and his chin is tilted upward. im not trying to turn this into a jayvik thing i swear im just comparing to my facial recognition knowledge HAHA

and as he loses himself deeper in the hexcore, the more he starts losing and/or fearing the two ppl he loved most ? ... and worries how he’d get back to them (if at all) and how he would imagine they would react.

the two ppl who not only made and brought him to who he is today, but uplifted and supported and stood by him for ~10 years despite everything

anyway this theory would all pair nicely with the voices that start playing in the background during his lil Montage lmao it kind of culminates into a massive guilty conscious, that then outwardly presents itself in their hallucinations:

“i never asked for this” - jayce to viktor, after their conversation about him breaking their promise about destroying the hexcore, resulting in vik leaving him lmao. also jayce literally turned viktor into this metal husk so hes gotta have that sitting on his shoulders too lmfao

“[heimer] was my mentor, and i betrayed him” - jayce (to mel) abt voting heimer off the council despite heimer ending up being completely right about magic in the first place

“it corrupts” “you must destroy it” “ive seen nations destroyed” - heimer about the hexcore, jayce screams over this as those lines play, anguishing over the fact that he literally did this to himself and hes the reason Piltover is (or will be) no more bc he ignored the warnings

“its your time now jayce” “perhaps its time for the era of magic” - mel to jayce, context is in the quotes HAHA. jayce is screaming no! no! and please! during these lines, i think its just to hammer (pun intended) home on the fact that it all ties back to him for ‘creating’ magic. its on HIM (at least in his own mind) for the destruction of Piltover and all of its people

maybe im just thinking too hard about it idk (im not). or unless this was extremely obvious to the average viewer HAHA. in my defense i spent this whole montage pausing every .6 seconds to take a picture of seggsy and broken and whimpering jayce so i wasnt really paying that much attention to it all AHAHA

anyway do u think this was a hallucination or was it actually the mage standing here with him for a flash lmao

okay sorry for that long ass post i would add a page break sooner but it would interrupt my flow of thoughts that i need u all to experience like i do HA

[linkemaus]

Not to be that person, but if Kamala Harris were a white man with the exact same ideals, positions, and beliefs, it wouldn’t have even been a competition. Realising that the worst thing you can apparently be is a woman, is truly devastating.

[the-scarlet-witch-22]

little rant, came to the realization today that when I eventually get married my mom definitely will not go. I don’t know why that hurts as much as it does. I’ve always known, like I’ve known for years and thought that I internalized it, but it’s just becoming more of a reality. I’m not even close to her but wow it sucks :)

[thevioletcaptain]

if you as a fic reader ever become possessed by the urge to do a popularity bracket with the fics other people wrote and shared for fun and for free, consider:

don't ❤️ 

[felignis]

i think chappell roan enforcing her boundaries to creepo parasocial fans is so fucking awesome and based and she should be allowed to do whatever she wants forever

[dreamteamemojis]

.

[lwcina]

the fact that the us government can continue funding and arming a genocide despite massive public opposition really highlights how inherently non-democratic the united states is

[pyropansy]

It is days like these that I think back to high school and the American Government class that was mandatory. And I think about the time the teacher brought up a real thing that would be on a ballot the next year. It was something about a tax that was already in place for the area next to ours. The one where the big mall was. And I remember the teacher going around the room and asking people if they would be for or against keeping the tax rate.

And I think about the kid who confidently said that they would be against it because they don't live there so why should they have to pay a higher sales tax when shopping at the mall?

The teacher had to remind the class that it was not a new tax increase, it was the same fucking tax that had been in place.

And I think about that kid, and all of the other kids in my school that think just like her. Why should they have to pay a higher sales tax? I guess she magically can teleport and doesn't use roads or sidewalks. I know she doesn't walk because upper middle class, and for SURE doesn't take the bus. I guess if there was an emergency at the mall she was shopping at she would be fine with their two unarmed security guards trying to take care of it. (Which granted, I work at said mall and being there during a shooting and seeing officers with big fucking guns did NOT make me feel safer, but still my point stands.)

Like. There are just so many people that think like this. And the class was there to try and teach them and I guess it just didn't work???

Anyways, that should give y'all who live in other countries a little insight. This is how people think in the United States.

[imjustli]

Fall of 2020, an TheEret stream:

Eret: Remeber to vote guys, I can't vote in this election as I'm just a brit living in the US, but this is a really important election, so don't throw away your vote if you have one

Chatter: who do you think we should vote for?

Eret: I won't tell you that, as I don't want to influence your decisions or make it seem like I'm coercing you into any specific opinion. But I think you can guess based on everything [note: *gestures vaguely to their bisexuality and the fundraising bar to pay of their friend's medical debt*], you can guess who I hope wins this election, but I just want your voting to be your decision.

Some dsmp "fans" a few months later: so TheEret is evil because [...] and they think people were right about voting for trump, and [...]

[kryaaas]

Jean is bad in sex because he always wishes he could have mustarbated alone instead (masturbate with mustard)

[sonknuxadow]

why are people saying that adopted siblings aren't real siblings because they're mad that their favorite characters are losing a tumblr poll....

[vulpinesaint]

wishing all non-usamericans a very shut the fuck up about your opinions on our voting actually. contrary to popular belief we're not fucking stupid and we know how voting works. first of all if someone is making the choice to abstain from voting as opposed to voting for the lesser of two evils (or actually supporting one of the parties) they have put a LOT of thought into that decision and it's not made lightly! second of all do you fucking HEAR yourself. "don't even think about who that vote's going toward" what the FUCK are you talking about. it is so incomprehensible to me to walk up to someone and tell them that it's important to vote but not to? vote for something good? yeah don't worry bro just vote. surely putting no critical thought into the end result of your political actions will end up fine. even if this were not a much more complex situation where undecided votes are being used to pressure different political sides and decisions not to vote have a lot of thought put into them, this take completely ignores the central problem, which is that people don't want to put a man who is actively contributing to genocide at the moment back into power. i think it's pretty fucking significant to think about what someone might do if they get elected actually.

you get it. you understand. you see how it's different. man i really don't think you do actually. the way to fuck over one party in a two-party system is to vote for the other party and the "better" party here is fucking terrible and will only continue pushing right if unchallenged. "just vote for genocide joe! don't think about what will actually happen! don't you want to screw over trump!" man do you hear yourself???? if we could shut down the condescension for a second and use our brains maybe we could have a productive discussion that didn't hinge around a fundamental misunderstanding of both our electoral system and the political movements that are currently involved and invested in the actions of voters right now. in the meantime goddddddd if you don't know what you're talking about take the high ground and shut the fuuuckkkk upppppppp

[a9saga]

the brilliant green - stand by me // the day I run out of tbg videos to post will be the day I stop posting weekly song recs on this blog

[azeutreciathewicked]

100% to these tags, except that I won't have grandchildren. I'll teach everyone else's children and grandchildren about this. Voting is not American Idol, and it's not dating. It's hiring a qualified person for the job. Democracy is hard work, and it means actually thinking beyond how a person looks or does public speaking* and considering instead how well the person will do the job. No more "but she--" or "what about--" bullshit. Get in line and do the right thing. We wouldn't be here if people had adulted up in 2016. *public speaking is usually the top fear of most people, including Americans. And speaking as a former speech/debate coach, most people have no clue what goes into it or what good public speaking is. Basically, most Americans are as qualified to evaluate public speaking as they are evaluating the physicalities of sports.

Motherfuckers got what they wanted, so everyone better fucking show the fuck up in November for Kamala, who is the only legitimate and viable candidate.

I am never, ever, going to get over this. And I don't want to hear any fucking criticisms or complaints.

[here-there-were-dragons]

my mother is absolutely convinced of some nonsense conspiracy theory that (in her words) "originally humanity lived in peaceful all-woman societies of goddess worshippers who took care of eachother and lived in harmony, while males were roving loners that had no society and never cooperated. that changed when the men banded together and overthrew the peaceful woman-dominated societies, and enslaved us all." and, according to her, this is proof that a woman-dominated world would be innately more peaceful, and that men are innately violent and evil and should be either barred from holding any legal power or leadership roles or at least should be (again in her words) "gelded like bulls" to remove their testosterone before even being considered for such a thing.

she also evidently believes that the problem with all religions today is primarily that they aren't "goddess worshippers", because she seems to think goddess religions are inherently peaceful and pure too and seems to be especially obsessed with "Isis" in particular. the very very few times she's openly considered it unambiguously bad for some population or another to have been exterminated (she's got a bad case of devil's advocating genocide brain), she's gone out of her way to make up some crap about how said people were a peaceful society of goddess-worshippers, almost always of isis. delusions of isis-worship seem to be the only thing that ever causes her to consider any arab or middle-eastern culture, society, or ethnicity to be relatively uncomplicatedly undeserving of extermination, in fact, because every fucking time she doesn't immediately start devils-advocating it and making remarks about how "the rest of the world should box them in and let them blow eachother up" it's when she's whinging on about how whatever specific micro-ethnicity she's thinking about are or were traditional persecuted isis-worshippers.

the sole major exception to her weird fixation on isis worship justifying worthiness of life is the whole israel thing going on, in which she has consistently made very obvious that literally the only reason she's against the genocide of palestine is because it gives her an excuse to even more openly hate jewish people than she already did. and honestly i'm not sure even that's true because i think she's made some offhand remarks about palestinians having probably been peaceful isis worshipers before the jews infected them with christianity or something anyway.

so for the last, however fucking long it's been i've been constantly having to listen to her go off about how this behavior is in the jew's blood or whatever and that they literally invented all genocide because somehow the concept didn't exist before them and wouldn't have ever been invented by the rest of humanity without those jewish aliens dropping it in i fucking guess apparently and she furthermore goes on about how every single genocide and mass-oppression movement in history is directly inspired by them, ESPECIALLY the nazis, and THEN i have to listen to her rant about how, basically, wwii was something they entirely brought on themselves by "dominating the economy and treating everyone not them like shit" and the nazis were just "using their own tactics back at them". and then she goes on a rant about how the people the original jews exterminated back in the day (aka the first ever genocide, which they invented, because jews invented genocide and hate according to her) in the middle east region were peaceful matriarchal isis-worshipers.

and then she starts making comments about arabs being backwards and palestinians either being mysogynist muslims that should be boxed in to blow eachother up with everyone else or secret peaceful isis worshippers corrupted by men's cruel hand, sometimes in the same sentence, entirely dependent on which group she's more in the mood to hate at the time.

it's exhausting. beyond exhausting. her sole purpose in existence seems to be to have the singularly most exhausting set of politics physically possible to fit into one person.

just, sometimes i think, if there really is anything at all to the incredibly stupid and inexplicably popular idea that anyone or anything has a Purpose tm to exist for, i feel like my mother's purpose is to be walking proof to me of a Type Of Guy That Is Real, cause i sure as fuck would have trouble inventing this mess if it wasn't standing right in front of me spewing confusingly bipartisan hate. all of her thoughts and opinions are these long winding nonsense chains that feel like if that man carrying thing sketch about the friend with confusing politics was a person. on meth.