#storm tropical surge

[reasonsforhope]

"At nearly 150 acres, the Jardim Gramacho landfill in Rio de Janeiro was one of the largest and most infamous in all of Latin America. Now it’s a mangrove forest teeming with life.

Decommissioned 11 years ago, between 1970 and 2012 the dump, bordering Rio’s famous Guanabara Bay, received 80 million metric tonnes of trash from the area’s Gramacho neighborhood.

Now, a public-private partnership led by the Rio Municipal Cleaning Company has returned the area to nature, specifically mangroves, one of the most valuable of all ecosystems.

Planting 24 acres of mangroves at a time, today the forest stretches out more than 120 acres and is the largest mangrove area of the bay.

“Before, we polluted the bay and the rivers. Now, it’s the bay and the rivers that pollute us,” a lead official on the project told Africa News. “Today, the mangrove has completely recovered.”

Other organizations have taken action to restore mangroves along the bay as well. The non-profit Ocean Pact funded the Green Guanabara Bay Project which successfully restored 12.5 hectares or around 25 acres of mangroves.

According to some estimates, 1 acre of mangrove forests can store more carbon in roots and soil than 4 acres of even the most biodiverse rainforest, making them paramount to any world climate mitigation strategy.

Furthermore, their impressive lattice work of roots and insane durability means that storm surges impacting mangroves lose about 66% of their kinetic energy without even destroying the trees.

Lastly, coastal fishing communities, in [four] words, cannot exist without mangroves. They act as nurseries and perfect habitat for all kinds of fish and crustaceans that small-scale fishermen rely on for their daily bread."

-via Good News Network, 7/31/23

-video via Africanews, July 26, 2023

[commodorecliche]

there's a dire shortage of bowling memes so here you go

[melancholic-pigeon]

I live on the eastern seaboard of north america so yes there is some weather I will not go swimming in. Nor'easters are miserable enough when you have hot cocoa and cozy sweater.

Just saw some weird discourse on Twitter and got curious

[callum-hunt-is-bisexual]

my beautiful children

[unchartedenlightenment]

Video/Live stream provided by Ryan Hall, Yall

Video/Live stream provided by Reed Timmer

[bubonickitten]

re: Hurricane Helene and Appalachia

I think it's worth mentioning that as climate change intensifies, we will be seeing more and more of this.

Climate change isn't just about rising temperatures and sea levels.

Higher air and water temperatures can and will affect currents and precipitation. While we might not see an increase in the frequency of storms during hurricane season, we will see more tropical storms becoming hurricanes and more hurricanes attaining higher category ratings.

Here is a link to a NASA article giving an overview of the science behind it all, but long story short:

Warmer oceans + more humidity = stronger storms.

That means bigger storm surges (=more flash flooding), higher wind speeds, and the potential for storms to sustain themselves as they move further inland.

I'm speaking from an East Coast U.S. perspective and hurricane season is what I'm most familiar with, but climate change also affects weather patterns in various regions of the world, such as monsoon season (which impacts 40% of the global population according to this article) and wildfire season (1, 2, 3).

Tornadoes are a bit more complicated, mostly because there's still a lot we don't know about them. Meteorologists can give forewarning that a thunderstorm or supercell has the potential for tornado formation, but there's really no way to predict in advance exactly where or when a tornado will form, let alone how intense it might be, how large it will grow, how long it will stay on the ground, or what route it will take. The total yearly count of tornadoes in the U.S. hasn't changed all that much, but tornado season is becoming more variable and outbreaks are getting more frequent and intense. It's hard to say whether or how climate change is causing those changes, but given how climate change is affecting weather in general and extreme weather events specifically, it's not hard to imagine that climate change is a variable when it comes to tornadoes and supercells.

TL;DR -- Weather is weird and there are a million little variables that go into creating extreme weather and if one of those variables changes (e.g. global temperature), the whole system is going to be impacted one way or another. Given the slow response to making the kinds of systemic changes that will truly mitigate climate change, there's going to be an escalating need going forward to advocate for those regions most at risk for extreme weather events, which includes advocating for funding for disaster relief.

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

Jack Ohman, Tribune Content Agency

* * * *

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

October 7, 2024 (Monday)

People in Florida are evacuating before Hurricane Milton is expected to hit the state’s Gulf Coast on Wednesday evening, bringing tornadoes, high winds, a dramatic storm surge, and upwards of 15 inches of rain. Milton grew from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in a little over a day, fed by water in the Gulf of Mexico that climate change has pushed in some places to 4 degrees Fahrenheit (2.2 degrees Celsius) higher than normal. Veteran Florida meteorologist and hurricane specialist John Morales choked up as he called it “horrific.”

President Joe Biden has approved an emergency declaration for Florida, enabling the federal government to move supplies in ahead of the storm’s arrival, but the state’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, has refused to take a call from Vice President Kamala Harris about planning for the storm. When asked about DeSantis’s refusal at today’s White House press briefing, Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre noted that the president and vice president have reached out to give support to the people of Florida.

As for DeSantis, “It’s up to him if he wants to respond to us or not. But what we're doing is we’re working with state and local officials to make sure that we are pre-positioned to make sure that we are ready to be there for the communities that are going to be impacted. We are doing the job… to protect the communities and to make sure that they have everything that is needed." When asked about DeSantis’s snub, Harris answered: “It’s just utterly irresponsible, and it is selfish, and it is about political gamesmanship instead of doing the job that you took an oath to do, which is to put the people first.”

Before this year, Florida had goals of moving toward clean energy, but in May 2024, DeSantis signed a law to restructure the state’s energy policy so that addressing climate change would no longer be a priority. The law deleted any mention of climate change in state laws. Saying that “Florida rejects the designs of the left to weaken our energy grid, pursue a radical climate agenda, and promote foreign adversaries,” the governor posted a graphic on X that said the law would “INSULATE FLORIDA FROM GREEN ZEALOTS….”

Like DeSantis, Trump and Project 2025, a playbook for the next Republican administration, authored by allies of the right-wing Heritage Foundation and closely associated with Trump and Republican vice presidential candidate Ohio senator J.D. Vance, take the position that concerns about climate change are overblown. Project 2025 says the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, whose duties include issuing hurricane warnings, is “one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry and, as such, is harmful to future U.S. prosperity.” It calls for either eliminating its functions, sending them to other agencies, privatizing them, or putting them under the control of states and territories.

The U.S. Supreme Court came back in session today in Washington, D.C. It has decided not to hear arguments about whether the federal Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (EMTLA) overrules Texas’s state abortion ban. EMTLA requires that hospitals provide emergency abortion care to save a woman’s life or stop organ failure or loss of fertility. Texas’s ban remains in place.

As legal analyst Joyce White Vance commented: “At least no one can pretend we don’t understand the consequences for women, & others, of putting appointments to the Court back in [Republican] control.”

The Georgia Supreme Court today reinstated the state’s six-week abortion ban after Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney, appointed in 2012 by Republican governor Nathan Deal, decided last week that the law violates Georgia’s Constitution. In his decision, McBurney wrote that “liberty in Georgia includes in its meaning, in its protections, and in its bundle of rights the power of a woman to control her own body, to decide what happens to it and in it, and to reject state interference with her healthcare choices.”

McBurney’s decision came shortly after a state investigation revealed that at least two women in Georgia died after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision struck down the abortion protections the court put in place in 1973 with Roe v. Wade. In anticipation of an end to Roe, Georgia governor Brian Kemp in 2019 signed a six-week abortion ban prohibiting the procedure before most women know they’re pregnant. The Dobbs decision allowed that law to go into effect.

The Georgia Supreme Court stayed McBurney’s decision during the state’s appeal of it. Chris Geidner of Law Dork noted that the court did leave in place McBurney’s block on the law’s provision that district attorneys can have access to “health records” where an abortion is performed or where someone who received an abortion lives.

In her attempt to reach new audiences, Vice President Harris sat down for an interview with Alex Cooper of the Call Her Daddy podcast to talk about women’s issues. Call Her Daddy is the second most popular podcast in the country, reaching as many as 2 million downloads per episode. According to NPR’s Elena Moore, Call Her Daddy’s audience is 70% women, 93% under 45.

Cooper began the interview by acknowledging that she does not usually talk about politics, but “at the end of the day, I couldn’t see a world in which one of the main conversations in this election is women and I’m not a part of it…. I am so aware I have a very mixed audience when it comes to politics, so please hear me when I say [that] my goal today is not to change your political affiliation. What I’m hoping is that you’re able to listen to a conversation that isn’t too different from the ones that we’re having here every week.” Cooper said she had also reached out to Trump, adding: “If he also wants to have a meaningful, in-depth conversation about women’s rights in this country, then he is welcome on Call Her Daddy any time.”

On the podcast, Cooper and Harris talked about the prevalence of sexual assault before addressing abortion. When Cooper quoted Trump’s promise to protect women, Harris noted that he was the one who appointed the three extremists to the Supreme Court that overturned Roe v. Wade and that 20 states now have abortion bans, some with no exceptions for rape or incest. Harris pointed out that the majority of women who receive abortion care are mothers and that every state in the South except for Virginia has an abortion ban. For a woman in those states—and one out of every three American women lives in one—the journey is expensive, hard, and traumatic.

“You don’t have to abandon your faith or deeply held beliefs to agree the government shouldn’t be telling her what to do,” Harris said. “And that’s what’s so outrageous about it, is a bunch of these guys up in these state capitals are writing these decisions because they somehow have decided that they’re in a better position to tell you what’s in your best interest than you are to know what’s in your own best interest. It’s outrageous.” Harris pointed out that she is the first vice president or president to go to a reproductive health care clinic, and she noted that those clinics perform Pap smears, breast cancer screening, and HIV testing and that they are having to close because of the abortion bans. She noted, though, that since Dobbs, people across the country have chosen to protect abortion rights.

The article in the right-wing National Review about the interview was titled: “Kamala Goes on Sex Podcast to Lie about Georgia Abortion Law.”

On Call Her Daddy, Harris also brought her economic plans for an “opportunity economy” to a younger audience. When Cooper asked her how she was going to help young people “not feel left behind,” Harris agreed it is “a very real issue and we need to take it seriously.” She promised to address housing costs by increasing the housing supply, working with home builders in the private sector to build three million new housing units by the end of her first term; help with $25,000 downpayment assistance for first-time homebuyers; and enact tax cuts for 100 million middle-class working people, including a $6,000 tax credit for new parents to help them afford the costs of a child’s first year.

The Committee for a Responsible Budget noted today that a moderate reading of Harris’s economic plans suggest they would increase the U.S. debt by about $3.5 trillion through 2035. A similar examination of Trump’s plans says they would increase the debt by $7.5 trillion.

Meanwhile, today, Trump openly embraced the race science favored by Nazis. In a scattered call to right-wing host Hugh Hewitt’s show, Trump called Harris a communist and lied—again—that she has let 13,000 murderers into the country. And then he claimed that murder is in a person’s genes, and “we got a lot of bad genes in our country right now.” He has also noted that “it would be very dangerous” for anyone to admit they were voting for Kamala Harris at one of his rallies because they would “get hurt.”

Hurricane Milton spurred meteorologist John Morales to step forward to take a stand, sharing his thoughts after Hurricane Helene hit. “Something’s shifted,” he wrote. “And it’s not just the climate.” He noted that with Helene on the way, “I did what I’ve done during my entire 40 year career—I tried to warn people. Except that the warning was not well received by everyone. A person accused me of being a ‘climate militant,’ a suggestion that I’m embellishing extreme weather threats to drive an agenda. Another simply said that my predictions were ‘an exaggeration.’

“But it wasn’t an exaggeration,” he wrote.

“For decades I had felt in control. Not in control of the weather, of course. But in control of the message that, if my audience was prepared and well informed, I could confidently guide them through any weather threat, and we’d all make it through safely…. But no one can hide from the truth. Extreme weather events, including hurricanes, are becoming more extreme. I must communicate the growing threats from the climate crisis come hell or high water—pun intended.”

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

[thebiggerbear]

"I hate you." "You have a weird way of showing that." - Beau Arlen Prompt Response

Summary: He put you with Hoyt and Tonya. For the day. What the hell had he been thinking?

A/N: Prompt from @creativepromptsforwriting (#941). I couldn't resist. I love Beau so much.

Thank you to my beta @rieleatiel for her services. You rock, girl!

Pairing: Beau Arlen x Female!Reader; Beau Arlen x Female!DeputySheriff!Reader

Warnings: sex (smut-light); implied sex; mention of violence; mention of injury

Word Count: 2486

Taglist: @avada-kedavra-bitch-187

Beau Taglist: @heartlessdelusions; @nancymcl

Jensen Taglist: @samanddeaninatrenchcoat

You can also read on AO3

"I hate you." "You have a weird way of showing that."

Soldier Boy version ✨ Dean version ✨ Jenny version ✨ Jason version ✨ Tom version ✨ CJ version ✨ Rachel version ✨ Anael version ✨ SDV Leah version ✨ Alec version

You made your way past everyone in the station, intent on one office in particular.

“Oh, hey, Y/N,” Poppernak greeted you with a grin. His smile slowly faded as he took in your expression. “Everything okay?”

“Just dandy,” you spat, surging past him. His eyes widened and he quickly got out of your way. If you were pissed and heading where it looked like you were heading, then he knew the best thing to do was to stay out of your way and possibly duck for cover. He hoped that when all was said and done that the office was still standing… as well as its sheriff.

You stormed into Beau’s office and slammed the door behind you. The man in question, who was on the phone, frowned and turned to see you standing in place, fuming. You were pretty sure he could see steam coming out of your ears from the bugging of his eyes and his hurry to get off the call he was on.

“Gotta run, Jas. Get back to me as soon as you have something. Thanks.” He quickly hung up the phone.

“Who’s Jas?” You seethed as he studied you, most likely determining how to respond.

Apparently choosing to try to butter you up, he gave you a bright smile. “Jas — Jasmine from Tech. You know that, honey, you’ve met her.”

You snorted and slowly approached his desk. “Don’t you honey me, Arlen.”

“Why?” He chuckled nervously, a response he had when he was anxious or becoming so. If you were using his last name, you were definitely pissed. “What’s wrong, darlin’?” Beau saw your eyes flash and he knew he had said the wrong thing. Oh boy.

“What’s wrong?” You asked in disbelief. “What’s wrong?!”

He knew better than to say anything else, especially since you were repeating his words in a rhetorical-yet-sarcastic manner. Besides, he knew you were going to tell him whether he wanted to hear it or not.

“What’s wrong is you sent me out with Hoyt all day.”

Beau relaxed a little, thinking maybe it had been something worse: a forgotten birthday, or maybe he was supposed to have done something you asked him to do but he didn’t — that kind of thing. “I did, but what’s wrong with that? You two have been getting along better these days and you work great together.” Your eyes narrowed and Beau realized he was in for a world of shit. He had tried to be complimentary and positive, but apparently that was the wrong way to go.

“What’s wrong is that you sent me out with her for the day. With Tonya.”

Beau briefly closed his eyes. He should have known this would come back to bite him in the ass. The truth was he had been caught off guard himself and had to quickly scramble to make it work. 

Seeing him hang his head, you hissed, “Yeah, exactly.”

Tonya and Donno, for some reason, had not moved on after everything that happened with Paige and the 15 million. All of you knew that the two had most likely gotten what they sought after; why they remained in town instead of taking off to some tropical paradise that catered to those wishing to remain anonymous was a mystery. You happened to think Tonya had something else up her sleeve, but like Beau had said: unless there was evidence of some kind of crime happening, there was nothing that could be done. You also thought that Beau and Hoyt were both purposely looking in other directions when it came to Tonya and Donno because the latter two had helped them in dire situations involving their family members. You didn’t really care about Tonya or Donno, but from what your friends had told you, both had put the group through the wringer — and often, at that. You had no desire to see that happen again so you’d rather see them skip town altogether instead of sticking around to further scheme things that could end up getting your friends hurt in some way.

Unfortunately, Tonya had risen in the ranks of realty; she was now one of Helena’s most sought after real estate agents, so much so that she had become friendly with the mayor and even began rubbing shoulders with some county officials. For some strange reason, out of the blue, Tonya decided she wanted to do a ridealong with law enforcement — your department specifically, today of all days. Beau, in a spur of the moment, decided to spare Pops and the rest of his department as well as himself, so naturally, you got saddled with that duty as did Hoyt. You knew Hoyt and Tonya didn’t get along, yet you had no idea just how much the two women hated one another. You basically spent the whole day keeping Hoyt from arresting the woman on some trumped up charge, keeping Hoyt from her own would-be assault charge, and endured hours upon hours of bickering. Tonya constantly — and loudly — questioned the two of you as you did your job, in front of perps, bystanders, and witnesses alike. She even told a suspect you were handcuffing — with a wink — that she knew a good lawyer who also happened to specialize in police brutality. The man decided to go all Mike Tyson and had knocked Hoyt down with a punch and tried to take a swing at you, forcing you to outmaneuver him and slam him onto the hood of your car to swiftly get his arms behind his back and regain control of the situation. But according to her, you were using brutality with him. Sure. You may have snapped out that she should get her ass back in the car before she’d join him, causing a smug smirk to form on the woman’s face. “I’ll get you that number,” she told the man, and then slinked back into the car. You grit your teeth and handed the suspect over to a deputy, going to check on Hoyt who was back on her feet, prodding at a bloody cut on her lip.  

Tonya had been a grade-A pain in the ass all day and she seemed to get off on irking both of you, Hoyt especially. And not once did Beau ever give you a heads-up on just what you would be facing after willfully sacrificing you and throwing you into the mess without a second of hesitation. For someone who used to be your partner back in the day, he sure hadn’t acted like one today. How could you not be pissed? 

Hoyt wasn’t happy with Beau either, but she was currently getting looked at by a doctor due to your insistence. Cassie had met you both at a walk-in clinic and she was waiting to drive Hoyt back once the blonde got the all-clear. Tonya had scampered off the minute you put your car in park, chirping how much she enjoyed today and thanking you for showing her how Lewis & Clark County’s finest did for their county day to day. Before you could retort, she was gone and you knew she definitely had something in the works that was not going to bode well for any of you in the long run. However, at that moment, you were so pissed you could barely see straight and you only had one destination in mind: Beau’s office. So here you were, infuriated and ready to send heads rolling. How could he do that? To you of all people? 

Beau sighed and got to his feet, rounding his desk to sit on the edge. “Y/N, I’m sorry. I wasn’t expecting that today and when she requested Hoyt… I could’ve sent Pop, but I didn’t think he’d be able to shut any crap down as quickly as you would. That’s why I sent you with them. But, I should’ve been the one to go, not you, and I’m sorry.”

“Yes, you should’ve been,” you hissed, crossing your arms.

He nodded and, after a moment, he reached out a hand.

You snorted in disbelief. “Really?”

Beau didn’t say anything, only moved his hand in a come hither motion, holding it out for you to take.

You let out an angry sigh and rolled your eyes, but moved forward to place your hand in his nonetheless. He pulled you to him, framed your face with his hands, and softly kissed you. You refused to kiss him back but ultimately, like always, you lost the battle and gave in, gently grasping one of his wrists as you did. “I’m sorry, baby,” he whispered to your lips.

“Don’t you ever do that to me again.”

“I promise.” He kissed you once more and you began to relax and melt into him, even going so far as to wrap your arms around his neck and slot your mouth against his more insistently. He released your face and circled his arms around your waist, picking you up so he could place you on his lap, your knees bracketing his hips as you straddled him. You could feel the tell-tale bulge pressing against you. You could definitely use some stress relief after the day you had, yet still —

“I’m still mad at you,” you panted harshly as he pressed kisses down your jaw line, his hands roaming insistently on your lower back. You weren’t surprised when a moment later they traveled further south and squeezed while he moved you back and forth over his growing arousal.

“As you should be,” he murmured, trailing his lips down your neck. “Matter of fact, I think you should show me how mad. Right here, right now.” Your eyes rolled into the back of your head as he began to suck on that spot right below your ear, the spot he knew drove you crazy. 

“I hate you,” you moaned, beginning to grind against him more insistently.

“You have a weird way of showing that, darlin’,” he chuckled, one hand on your hip now to help your movements. He bit his lip watching you grind on him and he let out a throaty groan. “Fuck, I ever tell you how much I love it when you get all riled up like this and you need to get it out of your system? Because I do. Hell, maybe I oughta do something that pisses you off every so often so you can— ” 

“Shut up,” you growled and covered his mouth with yours, plunging your tongue deep inside to taste him and effectively shut him up. You were practically riding him on his desk and he was doing everything he could to hold onto you while keeping upright. At one point, you got so turned on, you broke away and began unbuckling his belt, desperate to get inside his jeans. 

“Door’s not locked,” he panted out though he didn’t move to stop you. 

“Don’t care.” Normally, you would have cared, but the infuriating bastard was right: you had all the pent up anger and frustration from today coursing through your system. You needed to get it out, now. You yanked his belt through his belt loops and tossed it to the floor. “And just so we’re clear,” you unbuttoned and unzipped his pants, reaching inside and grabbing him, making him hiss when you gave him a couple of pumps with your hand. “We are not done talking about this.” You got to your feet and quickly whipped off your jacket and shirt, leaving you in only your lacy bra. You stripped down and then gently pulled him out of his jeans. You climbed back up and stared down into those fierce green eyes that were currently blown wide with lust. Despite mentioning it, he didn’t seem too bothered by the unlocked door either. Somewhere in the back of your mind, you hoped Poppernak and Madge didn’t walk in on something they couldn’t unsee because you highly doubted either of you would stop. You were both too worked up, especially you, and you were the one in control. Nothing short of a natural disaster or act of God would keep you from working the tension out of your body. Your phone buzzed on the floor, most likely a text from Cassie to let you know she was bringing Hoyt back to the station. Besides, you had a feeling that Pops witnessing your fury earlier and all of them out there hearing the never before slammed door, they most likely knew they should probably knock first before entering the Sheriff’s office. 

“Now, we have exactly twenty-five minutes, thirty if we’re lucky, before Hoyt gets here to rip you a new one herself. Think you can manage to make it up to me and have me all relaxed by then, cowboy?” You challenged.

His answer was to line himself up with you and push into you, making you gasp as his other hand gently pulled your hip down so you would sink fully onto him. You both groaned at the feeling and he gave you his own challenging smirk. “I think you better start moving,” he growled. “Because if she’s going to kill me, I intend to die a happy man. Which means I’m going to be buried deep in you, sweetheart, with you making a mess all over me for the fourth time.”

“Four? That’s super ambitious,” you teased. You began to move and pressed your lips together, balancing your hands on his clothed chest. “Don’t worry, baby. I won’t let her kill you. I love this way too much… And you.”

The fire in his eyes dimmed slightly and he suddenly shot up, making you adjust a little to stay on him, and he cupped your chin. “I love you, too, and darlin’...I am sorry.” You knew he was, you could hear it in his voice and see it deep in his green gaze. You gave him a soft nod and a tender smile, pecking his lips — one final sweet moment —before you pushed him back down onto the now cleared desk and resumed your position once more. He let out a chuckle at the devious smirk plastered on your lips.

“You will be,” you promised in a tease. You then went about working your frustrations out, Beau keeping to his prediction of getting you to a point that you were very relaxed (and mostly dressed albeit in need of a serious shower) by the time Hoyt stormed into his office. And just as you had promised, you made sure he survived Hurricane Hoyt and you even let him drive you home, his hand on your thigh most of the ride. You were pretty confident that he wouldn’t be making the mistake of throwing you to the wolves again anytime soon but you ended up enticing him to pull over into a discreet area to serve up a reminder once more just in case.

dividers by @firefly-graphics

[rjzimmerman]

Excerpt from this story from Yale Climate Connections:

fter a spectacular burst of rapid intensification, Hurricane Helene made landfall just east of the mouth of the Aucilla River, about 10 miles west-southwest of Perry, Florida, at about 11:10 p.m. EDT Thursday. Top sustained winds were estimated at 140 mph, making Helene a Category 4 hurricane at landfall. We’ll have much more on Helene’s many impacts—some still unfolding on Friday—in our next Eye in the Storm post.

Helene’s landfall gives the U.S. a record eight Cat 4 or Cat 5 Atlantic hurricane landfalls in the past eight years (2017-2024), seven of them being continental U.S. landfalls. That’s as many Cat 4 and 5 landfalls as occurred in the prior 57 years. The only comparable beating the U.S. has taken from Category 4 and 5 landfalling hurricanes occurred in the six years from 1945 to 1950, when five Category 4 hurricanes hit South Florida.

With the U.S. taking such a beating from extreme hurricanes in recent years, it’s worth reviewing how climate change is contributing to making hurricanes worse.

Climate change makes the strongest hurricanes stronger

As far back as 1987, MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel theorized that the wind speeds in hurricanes can be expected to increase about 5% for every increase of one degree Celsius (1.8°F) in tropical ocean temperature, assuming that the average wind speed near the surface of the tropical oceans does not change.��Computer modeling has found a slightly smaller magnitude (4%) for the increase.

According to NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch, sea surface temperatures along Helene’s path through the western Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico were about 1-2 degrees Celsius (1.8-3.6°F) above the long-term average. Using the theoretical results above, this increase in sea surface temperatures equated to a 50-100% increase in Helene’s destructive power.

Global warming increases hurricane rainfall

One of the more confident predictions we can make for hurricanes in the future is that they will dump more rain. Global warming increases the rate at which ocean water evaporates into the air, and increases the amount of water vapor the atmosphere contains when fully saturated. This result is about 7% more water vapor in saturated air for every 1°C of ocean warming. This increase in atmospheric water vapor can cause a much larger increase in hurricane rainfall than one might surmise, since water vapor retains the heat energy that was required to evaporate the water, and when the water vapor condenses into rain, this latent heat is released. The extra heat helps power the hurricane, making it larger and more intense, allowing it to pull in water vapor from an even larger area and thus dump more rain.

Climate change causes more rapidly intensifying hurricanes

As discussed in detail in our 2020 post, rapidly intensifying hurricanes like Helene, Ida, Michael, Laura, and Harvey that strengthen just before landfall are among the most dangerous storms as they can catch forecasters and populations off guard, risking inadequate evacuation efforts and large casualties. Unfortunately, not only is human-caused climate change making the strongest hurricanes stronger, but it is also making dangerous rapidly intensifying hurricanes like Helene more common.

According to research published in 2019 in Nature Communications, “Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates,” Atlantic hurricanes showed “highly unusual” upward trends in rapid intensification during the period 1982–2009, trends that can be explained only by including human-caused climate change as a contributing cause. The largest change occurred in the strongest 5% of storms: For those, 24-hour intensification rates increased by about 3-4 mph per decade between 1982 and 2009.

Sea level rise increases storm surge damage

Of the six tide gauges with long-term periods of record along the west coast of Florida, Helene set an all-time high water record at three of them (Cedar Key, Clearwater Beach, and St. Petersburg) – in all three cases just before or just after midnight Thursday night – and came in second or third place behind Hurricane Ian of 2022 and Hurricane Irma of 2017 at the other two (Ft. Myers and Naples). Sea level rise made these records easier to set. Sea level rise since 1947 at the St. Petersburg, Fla., tide gauge has been about 3.09 mm per year, or about 0.3 meters (1.0 feet) if extrapolated to a 100-year period (Figure 1). A substantial portion of this sea level rise is the result of human-caused global warming; the global sea level rise since 1900 is estimated to be about 7.5 inches (0.19 meters). Most of this rise has occurred because of melting of glaciers and because water expands when heated. Over the past 10 years, sea level rise has accelerated along the Florida coast, and the rate has been about 7 mm per year (2.3 feet per century) at St. Petersburg. Changes in ocean circulation and wind patterns, with climate change a potential contributing factor, are thought to be the reason for the acceleration.

[maya-chirps]

Severe Tropical Storm Kristine/Trami has recently hit the Philippines and has affected over 3 million individuals leaving many families homeless after the onslaught of the strong winds, storm surges, and flooding with many dead, injured, and missing.

This severely breaks my heart some of the most affected areas are places that I have close ties with. Bicolandia is where my mom had come from and I have family there who were directly devastated by the typhoon and Batangas is where I live where, although I was lucky my town didn't got flooded, my friends homes were affected as well as many of the people I knew.

If you want to help, here are some organizations that are leading in relief efforts and rescue operations that you can donate to:

ANGAT BUHAY is an NGO based in the Bikol Region, one of the most affected areas in the Philippines which first felt most of the storm's impact. They are currently helping with providing hot meals to those affected by the flooding as well as sending out rescue boats to assist people who are trying to get out of the floods. Here's the official ways on how to donate to the organization:

ABS-CBN FOUNDATION is the charity branch of media company ABS-CBN Corporation that is currently focusing on giving relief goods and supplies to those affected by the typhoon. They will be providing a mobile kitchen to the victims in the Bicol region and is initiating relief efforts in the northern parts of the country.

GMA KAPUSO FOUNDATION is the charity branch of media company GMA Network that is currently focusing on giving relief goods and supplies to those affected by the typhoon.

CARITAS MANILA is a Catholic non-profit organization that's currently holding relief operations in the Bicol Region and Quezon Province which are the first hard-hit areas of the typhoon. They had actually assisted in helping my province before during the Taal Volcano eruption a few years back.

PAWS Philippines is an NGO focused on animal welfare and proper animal care education. They are currently holding fundraisers and relief operations for people and their pets. Their focus may have expanded since the initial tweet from Naga, Bicol to other affected parts of the country.

PHILIPPINE RED CROSS is the main branch of the Red Cross in the Philippines. They're currently conducting rescue operations in heavily flooded areas as well as bringing relief goods to those affected by the typhoon.

Besides these bigger organizations, there are plenty of individual and private groups conducting their own fundraisers and donation drives that you can donate to as well as local and national government relief operations that you could contribute. If anyone else has any donation links they want to add in, please feel free to add to this thread.

To those still in crisis due to flooding and other issues caused by the typhoon, please stay safe!

[jinruihokankeikaku]

briefly breaking my hiatus to say - it's not often you see this kind of model consensus that a storm will reach Category 5 intensity. The regional hurricane models can be overenthusiastic about intensification but exceptions do occur and conditions look quite favourable for Invest AL97, soon to be "Tropical Storm Helene". At this stage, IIRC, the notoriously bullish HWRF still misunderestimated the intensity that Beryl would ultimately reach.

Of particular note is that HMON's solution of a 909 hPa low at landfall would make "Helene" the most intense Atlantic hurricane by barometric pressure at landfall of the 21st century so far - edging out Dorian's 910 hPa - and the 5th most intense at landfall since records began.

We're in the "landfall in less than 4 days" range and while the NHC hasn't yet begun issuing advisories, if you live anywhere on the Florida Gulf Coast you should be aware that this could well be a powerful storm & a large one, with surge & rainfall impacts well outside its radius of maximum winds.

[reality-detective]

Texas: Surfside Beach is seeing significant surge flooding this morning from the first named storm of 2024. The storm surge of Tropical Storm Alberto has roadways completely covered and homes are surrounded by water. 🤔

[physalian]

Writing Weather Part 2: Thunderstorms and Hurricanes + Hurricane Safety PSA

It’s hurricane season y’all!! Long before I knew about Pride Month, June 1st was the day I celebrated as the start of hurricane season.

If you’ve been following this blog for a while, you may know that I’m a Floridian. I love thunderstorms. I think a lot of us in the south do, and today’s post is about writing thunderstorms and violent weather when they don’t serve as ominous rumblings and plot hurdles.

In other words, this post is about embracing violent weather, from personal experience.

—

When I was a kid, our house had a pool. Rule is that you can swim until you hear thunder, then you gotta leave the pool because even if the clouds aren’t over you, lightning can strike (advice that eludes so many in this state). I lived on the Gulf Coast, in a city that made a deal with the devil like, 90 years ago, and has never seen a direct hit from a hurricane since. They were always near-misses, but we still got plenty of tropical storms and suffered the storm surges and the endless winds and rains.

Thunderstorms, to me, are a comfort. They probably wouldn’t be if I’d lost my house or a relative to violent weather so I’m not here to necessarily romanticize deadly weather, but it is just weather. It’s not caused by a bad actor and it has no intent. It just is, acting indiscriminately. So in a way I am romanticizing it, I suppose.

I mean that they’re a comfort in that, at least when I lived on the coast, they always followed a pattern. Every day around 2-3pm, the afternoon rains would come for a few hours and leave. It never rained in the morning, but you’d always be caught coming home from school during the summer months.

I loved how the wind would shift and the trees would rustle in warning of the oncoming rain, the temperature would drop in a reprieve from Florida’s oppressive heat, and you really can smell it in the air—fanfic isn’t lying to you. Petrichor (the smell of rain) comes after. Before, it doesn’t necessarily smell metallic, like rust, but something… clean. It overpowers the smell of the cars and burnt rubber.

I loved staring up at the monumental black clouds and hearing the thunder roll in. I loved staring out over the pool and watching the rain come in sheets and wonder if this was the day the pool would overflow. I loved how thunder would shake the windows and the power would flicker and could always sleep to the rain slapping against the windows.

I still do, I just don’t have that house anymore. Rain, unless I have to be out in it, has always calmed me down. If I’m at work in an office and I’m stressed, and I see it’s about to storm outside or I hear it on the roof, I instantly relax while everyone else whines about getting wet.

When writing thunderstorms that aren’t meant to be thematically evil, consider the following:

They’re a reprieve from oppressive sun and heat

The sound of the rain on your roof, trees, windows, lawns, pool cages, cars, and patios are all different

Rain does not fall in a consistent pattern, it blows with the wind and can patter off or dump in a frenzy and it’s mesmerizing to listen to

The smell is cleansing and pure

Thunder loud enough to shake the windows can be thrilling, not just terrifying, and cats generally don’t react the same to it as dogs do

Sun showers (when it rains without clouds) still amaze and befuddle even the locals and they’re rare, but seeing sunlight bounce off raindrops is such a novel thing

Some other things that are genuinely terrifying:

Tourists who panic over a little rain and drive at 30mph with their hazards flashing are more dangerous than the locals driving 50 with just their regular lights on and everyone hates them—do not drive with your hazards on in the rain, the intermittent flashing in poor visibility is more disorienting than solid red lights. If you can’t drive in the rain, don’t drive in the rain.

Hydroplaning will give you a heart attack and it goes against your instinct to slam the breaks—when you do so, you lock up the tires and the whole car skids out of control. Doesn’t just happen in the rain, it happens when the roads are wet after the rain.

Being caught outside when there’s lightning close by is a religious experience. However loud you think it is, it’s louder, and you can taste it in the air. The anticipation of the thunder might be scarier than the actual thunder.

Thunderstorms come from one direction. If you’re looking east at the clear blue sky, sometimes you can have absolutely no idea that there’s literal black stormclouds looming in from the west and the dawning realization is incredible.

As far as hurricanes go, we have evacuated and rode them out before, so here’s my observations.

They’re emotionless forces of nature that level the earth indiscriminately, and there’s something peaceful in being humbled like that.

Every single one I’ve experienced has hit overnight and it doesn’t sound all that different from a thunderstorm.

The last one I experienced dropped the temperature in the middle of summer down to 50 degrees and it was still very windy after the fact.

The wind can sound very intimidating and you never know if it’s going to be carrying sticks, palm husks, trash, or branches.

When the power went out during the last storm, I woke up in the middle of the night to my ceiling fan off and the deadness of no electricity around me was creepy. It is dark when the power goes out and all the streetlights don’t run. When there’s cloud cover and no moon or stars, your visibility is shot to hell.

Rain comes in bands with sometimes several minutes in between, to the point where you can go outside in the middle of a hurricane and not get wet because there’s no rain.

People are incredibly dumb and will try to drive through the floodwaters like lemmings. Unless you drive a Jeep with the air intake on top, not even your fancy Big Dick Truck is safe, and cars can float and lose traction (hydroplane) in very little water—do not restart your car after it stalls. You’ll destroy your engine. Just wait for it to dry out.

People are incredibly dumb and will bring pool floats into the floodwaters and paddle around on the submerged streets. Not knowing or caring about the sewage that’s backed up from the drains, the trash polluting the water, or downed power lines electrifying it.

Hurricanes, when they’re not actively destroying things with newsworthy weather, are very boring to experience. There’s zero visibility beyond the grey haze and it just lasts for hours, usually without power, until it moves on. You can’t “see” the storm, it’s all one big cloudy mass from the ground.

During the last storm, Dasani water was consistently the only water left on the shelves. People are dumb.

During the last storm, people were panic buying gasoline and pumping it into trash bags as if they could somehow pour a trashbag of gas into their fuel tank at home. People are dumb.

With all that said, I like hurricane season because it’s exciting. It’s something to break up the monotony, something fresh to anticipate. Yes, it’s violent dangerous weather, I know, and one bad storm can destroy your life or livelihood, it should absolutely be taken seriously. I just like storms.

—

Hurricane Safety PSA!

Check your local flood zones to see if you live within one and if you can move your car to a secondary location to spare it from flooding, that you could still reach in an emergency, you might want to do that. During one storm, the local university opened up its parking garages to students with nowhere else to put their cars except the streets.

Stock up early on your essentials, there’s plenty of supply checklists. There will be bad weather this year. No need to wait until the news panics about it, and makes everyone else panic about it. Buy your batteries and lanterns and water storage solutions now. It’s not like they’ll expire even if you don’t have to use them within a year.

Stay informed, but you don’t have to watch the news every second of every hour. Storms rarely go on their predicted path. If you’re going to evacuate, do so early. You don’t want to be trapped on the highway when it hits.

If you can’t buy a generator due to finances or not owning your place of residence, look into non-electric methods of food prep (like camping gear) and heat management, like folding fans or battery-operated theme park fans.

Going outside and trying to drive once it’s over might leave you stuck or even injured, and rescue efforts will already be spread thin enough without having to add you to the mess. Unless you must leave, just stay where you are.

Stay safe everybody!

[kawaiijohn]

Woo yay yippieeee even :(

From James spann Twitter (above imbed):

WEDNESDAY MORNING UPDATE: Milton remains a catastrophic category five hurricane early this morning with winds of 160 mph. The hurricane is about 300 miles southwest of Tampa, and is moving to the northeast at 14 mph. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach From NHC Milton is moving northeastward at 12 kt in the flow between a mid-to upper-level trough over the northern Gulf and a ridge located over the Greater Antilles. This motion should generally continue until Milton makes landfall in Florida, which is likely to occur late tonight or early tomorrow morning. After the hurricane reaches the coast, a turn to the east-northeast is expected as another trough approaches the system from the west. Milton should exit Florida and move over the Atlantic waters tomorrow afternoon and accelerate eastward after that. The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest models. It should be noted that this forecast is based on the model fields, not the interpolated models which appear to be too far south. Users are urged not to focus on the exact landfall point as the average error at 24 hours is about 40 miles. The global models agree that vertical wind shear is expected begin to increase over Milton later today, and that should cause some weakening. However, there is high confidence that Milton will remain a very dangerous hurricane when it reaches Florida, and maintain hurricane status as it moves across the state. The cyclone is expected to become extratropical over the Atlantic on Friday and gradually weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and near the high end of the model guidance. Milton's wind field is expected to grow considerably in size while it moves across Florida. Additionally, a large region of tropical storm and hurricane-force winds could occur on the northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical transition. Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be rushed to completion. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Key messages *A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and you should evacuate as soon as possible if ordered by local officials. *Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to completion. *Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through tomorrow brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat.

Stay safe y'all.

[unchartedenlightenment]

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