#south korea presidential election

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Alaina Demopoulos at The Guardian:

McKenna, who is 24 and lives in a rural, conservative state, recently got back on dating apps after a year of finding herself. She had two first dates planned for this weekend, but after Donald Trump won the election, she cancelled both. “It’s heartbreaking to know that in this country you only matter if you’re a straight white man,” she said. “It’s just devastating that we’re at this point. So I will not let another man touch me until I have my rights back.” McKenna, who did not want her last name published for privacy reasons, first heard about 4B a few months ago, via a TikTok video referring to the South Korean social movement. The basic idea: women swear off heterosexual marriage, dating, sex and childbirth in protest against institutionalized misogyny and abuse. (It is called 4B in reference to these four specific no-nos.) The mostly online movement began around 2018 protests against revenge porn and grew into South Korea’s #MeToo-esque feminist wave.

In the wake of Trump’s victory, 4B is once again on McKenna’s mind – and she’s not the only one. Trump’s embrace of manosphere figures such as Joe Rogan, the Nelk Boys and Adin Ross means he has strong support among their evangelists – mainly, young men. But for young women, the former president’s long history of misogyny means a vote for Trump is a vote against feminism, especially with reproductive rights as a key issue in 2024. Ahead of the US election, pundits predicted a history-making gender gap, and early exit polls support that prediction: women aged 18-29 went overwhelmingly left, while Trump picked up ground with their male counterparts compared with 2020. With the race called, TikToks viewed hundreds of thousands of times offered one way for women to go for the jugular: 4B, specifically cutting off contact with men. “Girls it’s time to boycott all men! You lost your rights, and they lost the right to hit raw! 4b movement starts now!” one creator wrote on TiKTok in a video viewed 3.4m times. In another video, a woman exercises on a stair climber machine. “Building my dream body that no man will touch for the next 4 years,” reads the caption. The top comment on her post: “In the club, we all celibate.” On Wednesday, Google searches for “4B” spiked by 450%, with the most interest coming from Washington DC, Colorado, Vermont and Minnesota. In South Korea, 4B began as an offshoot of national protests against the spycam epidemic, in which perpetrators filmed targets – most of whom were women – during sex or while urinating in public bathrooms without their knowledge or consent.

[...]

As with #MeToo in the US, men have called 4B an overreach, and discriminatory. South Korea’s conservative president, Yoon Suk Yeol, ran on a platform of abolishing the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family, which protects against gender-based violence and discrimination, saying feminists were to blame for the country’s economic woes.

Haein Shim, a South Korean activist and current undergraduate researcher at Stanford University’s Clayman Institute for Gender Research, said in an email that women who participated in 4B protests faced cyberbullying, harassment, stalking and threats of violence. “Many of us wore masks, sunglasses, and hats to cover our faces, and it was common practice to dress differently before and after a protest to minimize being stalked.” There were more nuanced critiques, too. “Some debated if it was a sustainable way to participate in feminism, because it was a total disconnect with men, and some people believe there have to be productive conversations among people with different world views in order for society to move forward,” Lee said. Feminists expressed concern over whether 4B “disregarded heterosexual women’s desires, in order to punish men who may or may not have participated in misogyny”.

Shim, the activist, says that 4B goes beyond just boycotting men, and encourages women to find solidarity with each other. “It’s a new lifestyle focused on building safe communities, both online and in-person, and valuing our existence in this crazy world,” she said. “What we want is not to be labeled simply as some man’s wife or girlfriend, but to have the independence to be free from the societal expectations that often limit women’s potential to be fully acknowledged as human beings.” Second wave feminist groups of the 1960s and 70s such as Cell 16, which advocated celibacy and separation from men, and political lesbians, who opted out of heterosexuality, were historically deemed as extreme – or simply trendy. 4B, a more contemporary movement that mostly lives online, may seem more accessible to gen Z women. On TikTok, 4B posts play as communal and therapeutic, a way to take back control during a time when basic rights are at stake.

Donald Trump's election, combined with the erosion of abortion access post-Roe, has fueled an angry backlash among feminist-inclined women by importing the South Korean 4B Movement to the States.

[blaze-papers]

North Korea Unveils First Weapons-Grade Uranium Facility

North Korea has revealed its first-ever facility for manufacturing weapons-grade uranium, marking a significant escalation in its nuclear weapons program. The disclosure, which was broadcasted by state media on Friday, features North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspecting the newly unveiled centrifuge plant—a crucial element in uranium enrichment.

During his visit, Kim Jong-un urged the facility’s engineers to ramp up production to significantly expand the country’s nuclear arsenal. This announcement comes amidst rising global tensions and the upcoming U.S. presidential election, highlighting North Korea’s ongoing defiance of international regulations and United Nations Security Council resolutions aimed at curbing nuclear development.

The centrifuge facility, previously shrouded in secrecy, was shown to the international community for the first time through state media photos depicting long rows of centrifuges designed to enrich uranium to weapon-grade levels. Although a similar plant was briefly disclosed to a U.S. delegation in 2010, this is the first time such a facility has been revealed to a broader audience.

North Korea’s nuclear program has faced widespread condemnation and numerous UN sanctions intended to halt its progress. The country has conducted six nuclear tests between 2006 and 2017 and is estimated to have around 50 nuclear warheads, with sufficient material to produce an additional 40.

In recent months, North Korea has also tested a range of ballistic missiles and increased its production of short-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Kim Jong-un has stressed the importance of boosting production to enhance North Korea’s tactical nuclear capabilities, particularly with short-range missiles.

The timing of North Korea’s announcement aligns with intensified U.S. presidential campaign debates, where North Korea’s nuclear threat has become a focal point. Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have both addressed the issue, with Trump reflecting on his previous interactions with Kim and Harris critiquing Trump’s approach to the North Korean threat.

In response to North Korea’s latest development, South Korea has condemned the continued advancement of its nuclear program and pledged to fortify its alliance with the United States. Joint defensive plans are being developed to counter potential nuclear aggression from Pyongyang.

As the international community closely examines the implications of North Korea’s newest move, global leaders remain focused on managing the escalating nuclear threat posed by the regime.

[maaarine]

A new global gender divide is emerging (John Burn-Murdoch, Financial Times, Jan 26 2024)

"In the US, Gallup data shows that after decades where the sexes were each spread roughly equally across liberal and conservative world views, women aged 18 to 30 are now 30 percentage points more liberal than their male contemporaries.

That gap took just six years to open up.

Germany also now shows a 30-point gap between increasingly conservative young men and progressive female contemporaries, and in the UK the gap is 25 points.

In Poland last year, almost half of men aged 18-21 backed the hard-right Confederation party, compared to just a sixth of young women of the same age.

Outside the west, there are even more stark divisions.

In South Korea there is now a yawning chasm between young men and women, and it’s a similar situation in China.

In Africa, Tunisia shows the same pattern.

Notably, in every country this dramatic split is either exclusive to the younger generation or far more pronounced there than among men and women in their thirties and upwards.

The #MeToo movement was the key trigger, giving rise to fiercely feminist values among young women who felt empowered to speak out against long-running injustices.

That spark found especially dry tinder in South Korea, where gender inequality remains stark, and outright misogyny is common.

In the country’s 2022 presidential election, while older men and women voted in lockstep, young men swung heavily behind the right-wing People Power party, and young women backed the liberal Democratic party in almost equal and opposite numbers.

Korea’s is an extreme situation, but it serves as a warning to other countries of what can happen when young men and women part ways.

Its society is riven in two. Its marriage rate has plummeted, and birth rate has fallen precipitously, dropping to 0.78 births per woman in 2022, the lowest of any country in the world. (…)

It would be easy to say this is all a phase that will pass, but the ideology gaps are only growing, and data shows that people’s formative political experiences are hard to shake off.

All of this is exacerbated by the fact that the proliferation of smartphones and social media mean that young men and women now increasingly inhabit separate spaces and experience separate cultures.

Too often young people’s views are overlooked owing to their low rates of political participation, but this shift could leave ripples for generations to come, impacting far more than vote counts."

[mariacallous]

A majority of respondents in a global poll said they would prefer a Ukrainian victory in the war against Russia, the Economist reported on Nov. 3.

In a survey conducted jointly with the polling firm Globescan, the Economist asked 30,000 people in 29 countries and one territory, Hong Kong, whether they would rather see Russia or Ukraine win the war.

An average of 54% of those surveyed said they wanted a Ukrainian win, compared to only 20% who supported Russia. More people supported Ukraine over Russia in 25 of the 30 countries or territories polled.

Popular support for Ukraine was strong even in countries that are not traditional allies of Kyiv. Respondents in Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Hong Kong were pro-Ukraine, despite their governments' neutrality or support of the Kremlin.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has positioned himself as a neutral party and mediator between Kyiv and Moscow, joining China in backing a six-point peace plan that does not mention Ukraine's territorial integrity.

South Africa has claimed neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine war but continued to strengthen its economic and political ties with Moscow. The country is a member of the BRICS group alongside Russia, China, and others, and even carried out joint naval drills with the two countries last year.

Public support for Ukraine's victory was strongest in the United States and South Korea.

The surveyed countries in which people were more likely to support Russia include Egypt, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Vietnam. In the same poll, respondents in all five countries said they would prefer a Donald Trump win in the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

Respondents were polled in July and August of 2024.

[sonyaheaneyauthor]

NATO has confirmed that North Korean troops have been sent to help Russia in its almost three-year war against Ukraine and says some have already been deployed in Russia's Kursk border region, where Russia has been struggling to push back a Ukrainian incursion.

Adding thousands of North Korean soldiers to Europe's biggest conflict since World War II will pile more pressure on Ukraine's weary and overstretched army.

"Today, I can confirm that North Korean troops have been sent to Russia, and that North Korean military units have been deployed to the Kursk region," NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte told reporters.

Rutte said the move represents "a significant escalation" in North Korea's involvement in the conflict and marks "a dangerous expansion of Russia's war".

It will also stoke geopolitical tensions in the Korean Peninsula and the wider Indo-Pacific region, including Japan and Australia, Western officials say...

...Ukraine, whose defences are under severe Russian pressure in its eastern Donetsk region, could get more bleak news from next week's US presidential election. 

A Donald Trump victory could see key US military help dwindle.

In Moscow, the Defence Ministry announced on Monday that Russian troops have captured the Donetsk village of Tsukuryne — the latest settlement to succumb to the slow-moving Russian onslaught.

Rutte spoke in Brussels after a high-level South Korean delegation, including top intelligence and military officials as well as senior diplomats, briefed the alliance's 32 national ambassadors at NATO headquarters... MORE

[feminismisstillahatemovement]

One of the most well-established patterns in measuring public opinion is that every generation tends to move as one in terms of its politics and general ideology. Its members share the same formative experiences, reach life’s big milestones at the same time and intermingle in the same spaces. So how should we make sense of reports that Gen Z is hyper-progressive on certain issues, but surprisingly conservative on others?

The answer, in the words of Alice Evans, a visiting fellow at Stanford University and one of the leading researchers on the topic, is that today’s under-thirties are undergoing a great gender divergence, with young women in the former camp and young men the latter. Gen Z is two generations, not one.

In countries on every continent, an ideological gap has opened up between young men and women. Tens of millions of people who occupy the same cities, workplaces, classrooms and even homes no longer see eye-to-eye.

In the US, Gallup data shows that after decades where the sexes were each spread roughly equally across liberal and conservative world views, women aged 18 to 30 are now 30 percentage points more liberal than their male contemporaries. That gap took just six years to open up.

Germany also now shows a 30-point gap between increasingly conservative young men and progressive female contemporaries, and in the UK the gap is 25 points. In Poland last year, almost half of men aged 18-21 backed the hard-right Confederation party, compared to just a sixth of young women of the same age.

Outside the west, there are even more stark divisions. In South Korea there is now a yawning chasm between young men and women, and it’s a similar situation in China. In Africa, Tunisia shows the same pattern. Notably, in every country this dramatic split is either exclusive to the younger generation or far more pronounced there than among men and women in their thirties and upwards.

The #MeToo movement was the key trigger, giving rise to fiercely feminist values among young women who felt empowered to speak out against long-running injustices. That spark found especially dry tinder in South Korea, where gender inequality remains stark, and outright misogyny is common.

In the country’s 2022 presidential election, while older men and women voted in lockstep, young men swung heavily behind the right-wing People Power party, and young women backed the liberal Democratic party in almost equal and opposite numbers.

Korea’s is an extreme situation, but it serves as a warning to other countries of what can happen when young men and women part ways. Its society is riven in two. Its marriage rate has plummeted, and birth rate has fallen precipitously, dropping to 0.78 births per woman in 2022, the lowest of any country in the world.

Seven years on from the initial #MeToo explosion, the gender divergence in attitudes has become self-sustaining. Survey data show that in many countries the ideological differences now extend beyond this issue. The clear progressive-vs-conservative divide on sexual harassment appears to have caused — or at least is part of — a broader realignment of young men and women into conservative and liberal camps respectively on other issues.

In the US, UK and Germany, young women now take far more liberal positions on immigration and racial justice than young men, while older age groups remain evenly matched. The trend in most countries has been one of women shifting left while men stand still, but there are signs that young men are actively moving to the right in Germany, where today’s under-30s are more opposed to immigration than their elders, and have shifted towards the far-right AfD in recent years.

It would be easy to say this is all a phase that will pass, but the ideology gaps are only growing, and data shows that people’s formative political experiences are hard to shake off. All of this is exacerbated by the fact that the proliferation of smartphones and social media mean that young men and women now increasingly inhabit separate spaces and experience separate cultures.

Too often young people’s views are overlooked owing to their low rates of political participation, but this shift could leave ripples for generations to come, impacting far more than vote counts.

[source]

[nerdyenby]

2024 US Presidential Candidates policies (as per their official websites)

Note that I am quite liberal but this is me trying to summarize how our major candidates represent themselves and their goals, as to understand what factors make them appealing to voters

Harris

Affordable living (cutting taxes for middle class families, lowering rent, bringing down cost of healthcare, supporting small businesses and innovators, affordable and accessible education, and more)

Protecting fundamental freedoms and human rights (restoring reproductive freedom and access to safe abortions, protecting voting rights, and defending LGBTQIA+ rights)

Promoting safety (preventing gun violence, supporting local law enforcement and community safety programs, securing our borders — going after human traffickers and drug dealers as well as creating better paths to citizenship for immigrants —, fighting the opioid and fentanyl crises, holding the Supreme Court accountable to the same standards and laws as other US judges, and ensuring that no one is above the law)

Security (dedicated to keeping both america and the international community safe, has positive relations with South Korea, Ukraine, and NATO, is working to end the Israeli/Palestinian war, standing up against Iranian terrorist groups and China, and supporting veterans and their families and caregivers)

Trump

Immigration: “Seal the border and stop the migrant invasion,” “Carry out the largest deportation operation in American history,” “Stop the migrant crime epidemic,” “Deport pro-Hamas radicals and make our college campuses safe and patriotic again”

Economy and labor: “End inflation,” “Make America the dominant energy producer in the world,” “Turn the United States into a manufacturing superpower,” “Large tax cuts for workers, no tax on tips,” “Keep the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency,” “Protect social security and Medicare with no cuts, including no change to the retirement age,” “Cancel the electric vehicle mandate and cut costly and burdensome regulations”

Fundamental freedoms and human rights: “Defend our fundamental freedoms including freedom of speech, freedom of religion, and the right to keep and bear arms,” “Cut federal funding for any school pushing Critical Race Theory, radical gender ideology, and other inappropriate racial, sexual, or political content on our children,” “Keep men out of women’s sports,” “Secure our elections”

International policies: “Prevent world war 3, restore peace in Europe and the Middle East, and build a great iron dome missile defense shield over our entire country,” “Strengthen and modernize our military, making it — without question — the strongest and most powerful in the world”

Misc: “End the weaponization of government against the American people,” “Rebuild our cities, making them safe, clean, and beautiful again,” “Unite our country by bringing it to new and record levels of success”

[darkmaga-returns]

Russia and US on the brink of direct military conflict. North Korea vows to stand by Russia. Iran may review nuclear doctrine. Washington state activates National Guard. Treasury Seal Falls Off

Lioness of Judah Ministry

Nov 02, 2024

Russia and US are allegedly on the brink of direct military conflict

The United States and Russia are very close to engaging in 'direct military conflict,' Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned in an interview published Friday in a Turkey daily, just days ahead of a US presidential race.

'Under the current president ( Joe Biden ), who has taken the downward spiral of Russophobia in the US to its logical conclusion, our countries are on the brink of direct military conflict,' he told the Hurriyet daily, without elaborating.

America’s lack of wisdom and flexibility triggered Ukraine conflict – Medvedev to RT

The US exceptionalist approach will once become its undoing, ex-Russian president Dmitry Medvedev says

The Ukrainian conflict could have been avoided entirely if the US had shown enough “wisdom” and “flexibility” to strike a comprehensive security deal with Russia, former Russian President and current deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev has said. The ex-president made the remarks in an exclusive interview with RT, which largely revolved around the situation in Georgia and the outcome of its recent general election. The polls resulted in a defeat of pro-Western opposition parties, with the ruling Georgian Dream party greatly reinforcing its position.

Russia jails ex-US consular employee on security charges

A court in Russia's far east said on Friday it had convicted Robert Shonov, a former US consular employee, of illegally and covertly cooperating with the US government to harm Russia's national security and had jailed him for nearly five years.

Russia's FSB security service detained Shonov, a Russian national, in Vladivostok in May 2023 and accused him of taking money to covertly supply US diplomats with information that was potentially harmful to Russia. The State Department said at the time that his case highlighted Russia's "blatant use of increasingly repressive laws" against its own citizens and said the allegations against Shonov were "wholly without merit".

Zelensky claims 100,000 North Koreans could fight Ukraine

Some 3,000 soldiers are already in Russia, according to the Ukrainian leader, a claim that Moscow has not confirmed

The West has shown “zero” reaction to the alleged movement of North Korean troops into Russia, which means that Pyongyang may send as many as 100,000 troops to fight Kiev, Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky has claimed. Russia has neither confirmed nor denied the presence of North Korean troops on its soil, saying merely that its cooperation with Pyongyang proceeds according to a defense partnership treaty. Russian President Vladimir Putin is “testing the reaction of NATO nations” and South Korea, Zelensky said in an interview with South Korean national broadcaster KBS, which was released on Thursday.

[storkmuffin]

Conversations among Korean workers in an office in South Korea on this day (Our Nov 6, the Americans' Nov 5) in 2024 watching the US Presidential elections.

Trigger warnings. Dead Dove Do Not Eat.

A: Trump is going to win. I just saw. New York Times called it.

B: Welp. Palestinians are screwed. So are the Ukranians.

C: Why are you worried about other people? He's going to hype up Kim Jong Eun again.

B: Oh, so true. Well no, actually. Taiwan is screwed more than us.

C: Oh that's right! I forgot about Taiwan.

B: So it'll be Palestinians, the Ukrainians, the Taiwanese, and then us.

D: Well, maybe not screwed. We will just have to pay a lot more for the military stuff.

B: I wonder if Poland is going to be OK. Isn't that how all the world wars start? By Poland getting run over by someone?

C: Maybe the EU can just cede Poland and like, Finland, too, to Russia, and be done with it.

B: It's either Poland or the Baltics, right? Yugoslavia doesn't exist anymore. Romania vs Bulgaria or something this time, maybe? Do you think maybe there will be another pandemic too?

A: The Republicans got the senate too.

B: How is it they couldn't find even ONE white man to be the presidential candidate on the Democratic side? Why is there no talent whatsoever there? Because every American election is purely racial, right? Did the Democrats really think a black woman could win?

C: Maybe Trump will just remake their constitution and be president for life?

D: Trump's right hand people keep screaming about how America is for Americans, and they mean white people.

.... and so on.

[meret118]

Politico's E&E News reported Thursday that when natural disasters hit states led by governors Trump disliked, he either withheld, delayed or outright denied aid for political reasons. In 2020, when Washington state was affected by wildfires, Democratic Governor Jay Inslee requested $37 million in aid for the affected areas. But even though the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) found that the Evergreen State's wildfires met the threshold for a federal disaster, Trump sat on the request for the final four months of presidency, only approving it just prior to leaving office.

. . .

Inslee, who unsuccessfully sought the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, had previously criticized the ex-president's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic when he said the federal response to the virus would "be more successful if the Trump administration stuck to the science and told the truth." Trump bristled at the critique, and called the governor a "snake" and a "nasty person."

Two days before Inslee requested federal assistance, he slammed the former president's "reckless statements" about global warming and his "gutting of environmental policies." The irony of Trump withholding aid to Washington state is that even though it's considered safe Democratic territory in presidential elections, the wildfires primarily affected the eastern part of the state, which is solidly Republican.

. . .

While Washington state eventually got aid money from the federal government, the Trump administration didn't send any aid at all to Maryland after Republican Governor Larry Hogan requested it. Hogan — who also criticized Trump's oversight during the pandemic and bought 500,000 Covid tests from South Korea — sought federal money to recover from a tropical storm that FEMA said met the disaster threshold. However, Trump never officially approved his November 12 request. Trump attacked the Republican governor from his official Twitter (now X) account, labeled him a RINO [Republican in name only] and said he was "just as bad as the flawed tests he paid big money for!"

Biden ultimately approved the aid request in February of 2021. However, the damage had already been done. Russell Strickland, the director of the Maryland Emergency Management Agency, said the "delay [in receiving aid] caused us to miss opportunities" to better protect residents against future natural disasters."Citizens do not have the ability to wait months to receive assistance and return to their homes and businesses," Strickland said.

. . .

Utah Republican Governor Gary Herbert also experienced Trump's vindictiveness when he requested federal aid in October of 2020 for a series of destructive storms. Even though FEMA estimated the storms more than surpassed the threshold to qualify for assistance, the former president still took 97 days before finally approving Herbert's request. Notably, Herbert was one of the first Republican elected officials to recognize Biden as the winner of the 2020 election, and denounced his state's Republican attorney general for adding his name to an effort to overturn election results.

[stele3]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-ex-president-ahmadinejad-registers-run-presidential-elections-state-tv-2024-06-02/

[beardedmrbean]

The head of South Korea's main opposition party, Lee Jae-myung, was stabbed in the neck on Tuesday, officials said.

Lee was attacked by an unidentified assailant while touring the site of a proposed airport in the southern city of  Busan.

Lee's Democratic Party's spokesperson Kwon Chil-seung said that the politician had undergone surgery. 

He "is currently admitted to the intensive care unit and is recovering," according to the spokesperson.

The official also said the opposition politician had suffered "damage to the internal jugular vein," but was conscious following surgery.

In the immediate aftermath of the attack, there was concern over the large amount of bleeding that Lee suffered.

President Yoon Suk Yeol ordered a speedy investigation and offered his support to Lee, the president's office said in a statement.

"Yoon emphasized our society should never tolerate this kind of act of violence under any circumstances," the statement added.

What we know about the attack

Local news reports said the attacker appeared to be a man in his 50s or 60s who approached Lee for an autograph.

The attacker then suddenly lunged forward and appeared to stab the opposition leader in the left side of his neck.

Officials near Lee quickly subdued the attacker before police officers detained him, senior Busan police officer Sohn Jae-han said in a televised briefing.

Sohn said 41 police officers had been deployed to the area for crowd control and traffic management.

Photos of the incident show Lee on the ground with his eyes closed, with people around him pressing a handkerchief against his neck.

Police said Lee suffered a "one-centimeter laceration on his neck," according the Chosun Ilbo newspaper.

He was subsequently airlifted to hospital. 

Police said that they had seized an 18-centimeter (seven-inch) knife used by the attacker.

Busan police official Son Je-han was cited by the Reuters news agency as saying that the knife was bought online. He said that the motive was still being investigated.

Parliamentary elections on the horizon

Lee heads South Korea's Democratic Party. He lost the 2022 presidential election to nationalist Yoon by a narrow margin.

South Korea's parliamentary elections are slated for April.

While the Asian country has strict gun control, it also has a history of political violence involving other weapons.

Last year, Lee's predecessor Song Young-gil was attacked at a public event by an assailant who swung a blunt object against his head.

Conservative former President Park Geun-hye was also attacked with a knife at an event in 2006 when she was still opposition leader. 

[aventurasdeunatortuga]

Tuesday, July 9th

Today I ventured about 90km outside of Seoul to the small city of Cheonan. It was very easy to get there, Korea has an excellent train system, I wish we had more of that in the US.

In Cheonan I visited the Independence Memorial Hall of Korea, an enormous complex dedicated to the Korean Independence Movement. The biggest feature was an enormous statue in front, it was meant to represent two hands in prayer, the wings of a bird, and two parts of a whole that have been separated, representing the hope of Koreans to become independent from Japan as well as the way Korea was divided in two and the hope Koreans have for reunification of their people.

The museum was enormous, I was there for like 5 hours it was huge. It was a very difficult museum to go through, because of how horrific the events of that time were.

Japan slowly began invading Korea after the 1905 Russo-Japanese War. The Japanese government forcibly coerced the Emperor to sign a series of treaties giving up their sovereignty to Japan in 1910. The government was dissolved and replaced by the Japanese, and they attempted to eradicate all elements of Korean culture. It was indescribably brutal.

Farmers and peasants and former members of the Korean army began forming secret societies referred to as “The Righteous Army”. These groups had been formed before in the past when Korea had been attacked by Japan and the US. These groups bravely worked to resist against the Japanese Empire. It was really inspiring to learn about them and see photos of them, a lot of them were just kids.

On March 1st, 1919 a group of secret societies, students, and the Righteous Army worked together to develop the Korean Declaration of Independence. They printed thousands of copies in secret to distribute. A group of students read the initial declaration that day to a large crowd, sparking a movement of thousands of protests across the country with over 2 million participants, the Japanese brutally attacked the protestors resulting in thousands of deaths.

These protests got international attention and slowly the Korean independence movement began gaining traction. In 1941, Japan attacked Pearl Harbor which sparked US intervention in the Pacific. The US saw Korea as an advantageous location to combat Japan, and allied themselves with the Korean Independence Movement. The US and student representatives from the Korean Independence movement appealed to international community for support. The US promised Korean independence “in due time”.

In 1945 when Japan surrendered, they left Korea. The US and the Soviet Union maintained control over the area, the US in the south and the Soviet Union in the north.

In 1948 the Soviet Union appointed Kim Il Sung as leader of the north, in response, the US encouraged the South to hold their own presidential elections, many people resisted this because having two separate leaders would only cement the division forced upon the country. On Jeju Island there was massive protests against this special election, the US army sent Korean troops to massacre several thousands of civilians in order to stop the protests. This could technically be considered a genocide, but hasn’t been formally acknowledged by the US. It was interesting how the museum addressed this event, as “rebels obstructing the path to democracy”. It is interesting how the leaders of the Korean Independence Movement were glorified for their brave acts of resistance against Japan, but the museum considered acts of resistance against US intervention to be essentially terrorism that needed to be stopped.

History is written by the winners I guess.

The election happened, and a US approved leader was appointed, leading to the Korean War in 1950 as the US and Soviet Union battled for complete control of the region.

The museum ended there, tomorrow I’m going to the Korean War Museum to learn more.

[mariacallous]

The April 10 legislative elections in South Korea loom especially large for President Yoon Suk-yeol. After winning his election in March 2022 by the narrowest margin in the country’s history, the conservative Yoon inherited the National Assembly elected in 2020, in which South Korea’s liberals won a historic landslide thanks to the Moon Jae-in administration’s strong response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Out of the legislature’s 300 seats, the liberal coalition won a 180-seat majority, the largest margin of victory in South Korea’s democratic history.

Two years into his five-year presidential term, Yoon has left a mark in areas that are down to the president alone. Yoon made profligate use of presidential decrees, executive orders that don’t require legislative approval. In his first year, Yoon issued 809 presidential decrees, while his two immediate predecessors, Moon and Park Geun-hye, issued 660 and 653 decrees, respectively, in their first years. Yoon also exerted influence through his appointments—most notably Park Min, the new head of the state-owned broadcaster KBS who sacked popular liberal journalists as soon as he took office. In foreign policy, Yoon capitulated to Japan’s demands to sideline World War II-era Korean forced laborers and release wastewater from the failed Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, paving the way for U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral cooperation.

But in areas that require legislative assent, Yoon has been stymied. The South Korean Constitution allows the executive branch to directly propose a bill to the legislature. For the first six months of Yoon’s presidency, the National Assembly refused to pass a single bill proposed by the government. Yoon’s campaign pledge of abolishing the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family, pandering to the toxic misogyny rampant among young Korean men and fueling their conservative turn, has not come to pass because a reorganization of cabinet ministries requires passing a law. (Yoon has responded by simply refusing to appoint a gender equality minister.)

Meanwhile, the opposition Democratic Party has leveraged its commanding majority to pass laws that could have been highly damaging to Yoon, such as providing for special prosecutor investigations of the Itaewon Halloween disaster, in which 159 partygoers died in crushing crowds in Seoul’s popular nightlife district, and the alleged stock pump-and-dump scheme on the part of first lady Kim Keon-hee. Each time, Yoon responded by exercising a presidential veto, quickly racking up nine vetoes in the first two years of his presidency—equal to the total number of vetoes exercised by six of his predecessors combined.

Naturally, the Yoon administration and the ruling People Power Party (PPP) are heavily focused on recapturing the legislative majority in elections this month. Yoon was able to win the presidency by flipping a significant part of Seoul from liberal to conservative between 2020 and 2022, by pandering heavily to grievances over rising property tax. The real estate slump since Yoon’s election—Seoul’s condominium prices dipped by more than 7 percent in the past year—threatened to erode that support, as the lower condo price damaged upper-middle-class Seoul residents’ primary investment while the decreased profits and higher interest rate pushed large construction companies to the brink.

In response, South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service audited banks for charging what the regulators claimed were overly high interest rates, in a move seen as a tactic to pressure banks to extend loans to companies that posed a credit risk. The government also delayed the publication of major economic indicators such as the previous year’s budget deficit and the rising price of consumer goods until after election day on April 10.

For its interim leader in the run-up to the election, the PPP tapped Han Dong-hoon, Yoon’s justice minister and heir apparent. Because of his patrician air and relative youth at 51 years old, Han has been hailed as representing the next generation of conservatives. In the words of conservative columnist Kim Soon-deok of Dong-A Ilbo, Han stands in contrast to Yoon in three ways: “First, he does not drink. Second, he is not a stinky old man. Third, he dresses well and speaks with refined language.” With Han at the center, the conservative party has been able to distance itself from the deeply unpopular president.

The Yoon administration also enjoyed a bump in popularity with its proposal to increase the number of medical students by 2,000—a significant jump from the current level of around 3,000. South Korea has a very low number of doctors, which has resulted in a lack of access to medical care especially outside the Seoul metropolitan area. At just 2.6 doctors per 1,000 people, it’s as low as in the United States, which also has a significant and artificially created shortage, and less than half of the number of most developed countries. Doctors reacted strongly, with more than 90 percent of interns and residents going on strike. Nevertheless, the Yoon administration effectively painted doctors as money-grubbers who wished to artificially restrict the size of their ranks to protect their bottom line. With all these moves, by late February it appeared that Yoon and the conservatives had put themselves in the pole position.

Meanwhile, South Korean liberals have been mired in a civil war. Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Democratic Party and a former presidential candidate who opposed Yoon, began as a member of the minority faction within his party. As the Democratic Party finalized its slate of candidates in February, the legislators not aligned with Lee found themselves sidelined from running for their seats again. Many of them—including high-ranking members such as Assembly Deputy Speaker Kim Young-joo—quit the party, casting their lot with the PPP or seeking a third-party bid with former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon, who lost a bitter presidential primary against Lee in 2021.

But the campaign landscape changed dramatically in March as a new third party, the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP), took the scene by storm. The RKP was founded by Cho Kuk, who was widely considered to be the heir apparent to Moon as the liberal president’s justice minister. Instead, Cho’s short time in office fueled the rise of Yoon.

As South Korea’s prosecutor general at the time, Yoon conducted a massive investigation campaign against Cho and his family, eventually putting his wife in prison for forging a service certificate that was included in their daughter’s college applications. Yoon’s prosecution of Cho galvanized the conservatives, who saw Cho as a symbol of liberal hypocrisy. Liberals, on the other hand, saw Cho as a martyr whose family was destroyed for the sake of Yoon’s quest for power.

With Yoon’s unpopularity, the latter narrative began to win out. The RKP’s slogan is not subtle: “Three years is too long,” referring to the remaining term of Yoon’s presidency. The new party quickly became the rallying flag for South Korean liberals critical of Yoon but disappointed with the Democratic Party’s internal squabbling. Even moderates began joining the RKP ranks, attracted by the clear message of punishing the Yoon administration. Within weeks of its launch, the RKP became South Korea’s most popular party with approximately 25 percent support.

A major turning point came on March 18, when Yoon made a highly publicized visit to a supermarket—a photo op to show that the president was tending to the wild increase in food prices. In January and February, the cost of food in South Korea increased by 6.7 percent year over year, with popular items like apples rising by as much as 121.9 percent in the same period, resulting in some supermarkets selling a single apple for 19,800 won (about $15).

At the supermarket, Yoon held up a bundle of scallions and said: “I do a lot of grocery shopping, and 875 won for a bundle seems reasonable.” But in most grocery stores around South Korea, a bundle of scallions typically sells for between 4,000 and 7,000 won; the supermarket that Yoon visited just happened to be running a suspiciously well-timed promotion on scallions.

Yoon’s attempt at Potemkin produce, over a household item whose price is common knowledge, instantly became fodder for viral mockery. Especially in the Seoul metropolitan area, where partisanship is relatively weak and election results tend to alternate, support for the conservatives began crashing. Yoon’s gaffe, and the rise of his nemesis Cho, is threatening to reverse the gain that South Korea’s conservatives have made in Seoul in the past two years.

Seeking to recapture the momentum, Yoon took to the bully pulpit on April 1 to exhort the striking doctors to return to work. But the government’s standoff against doctors is now losing popularity, as the public is facing the consequences of a lack of medical care, such as emergency rooms rejecting ambulances and cancer surgeries being delayed indefinitely. The newly elected head of the Korea Medical Association vowed that the doctors would not negotiate unless Yoon apologized and sacked the health minister.

In his April 1 statement, Yoon offered no compromise—a stance that has done little for conservatives as election day approaches. After the president’s address, one unnamed conservative legislator despaired: “I feel like a dinosaur looking up at the oncoming comet, sensing our extinction.”

[feedyourmind1031]

 Economic Overview: Key Market Developments

Critical Update

Sudden market shifts may occur due to significant events. Monitor trading positions and implement risk management strategies during these uncertain times.

Economic Overview

As we enter a new quarter, the market faces numerous challenges. Rising war tensions, de-dollarization efforts, and upcoming elections in the U.S., France, and Iran contribute to the uncertainty. Here’s a detailed analysis of these developments and their potential impacts.

Currency Shifts

Russia’s move to use the Chinese Yuan for international trade and the increase in gold reserves by central banks are noteworthy. While the Yuan may not replace the U.S. Dollar soon, these actions indicate strategic shifts. Gold purchases serve as a hedge against potential currency volatility.

Geopolitical Conflicts

Middle East: The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon has intensified, with Iran warning of severe retaliation if Lebanon is attacked. Daily strikes continue, and countries like the U.S. and Germany have advised their citizens to leave Lebanon.

South China Sea: On June 19, 2024, Chinese coast guard officers attacked Philippine military personnel near the Second Thomas Shoal, escalating tensions. The U.S. has reaffirmed its defense treaty with the Philippines, which could lead to military involvement if violence escalates.

Korean Peninsula: North and South Korea are on edge, with Russia signing a defense treaty with North Korea. Border incidents and threats over South Korea’s potential troop deployment to Ukraine have heightened tensions.

Nuclear Brinkmanship: France and Russia’s nuclear brinkmanship is a significant risk, with both countries attempting to establish deterrent boundaries.

Economic and Market Effects

These conflicts could alter monetary power dynamics and supply chains. Expect increased oil demand and gold purchases as safe-haven assets. Silver demand will also rise due to its military applications.

Diplomatic Relations

Zimbabwe and Zambia: Tensions are high as Zimbabwe aligns more closely with Russia, accusing the U.S. of militarizing Zambia.

Election Updates

Iran: Presidential elections are nearing completion as candidates drop out.

France: The first stage of snap parliamentary elections is complete.

U.S.: The first debate between Biden and Trump was contentious, adding to the uncertainty of the upcoming election.

Natural Disaster Considerations

While not detailed here, it’s crucial to consider the impact of natural disasters on economic activities and implement strong risk management.

Key Market Data and Analysis

Final GDP: Increased from 1.3% to 1.4%.

Unemployment: Fell by 3k more than forecasted, indicating a stronger U.S. economy.

Core PCE: Decreased from 0.3% to 0.1%.

Consumer Confidence: Fell but remained above forecasted numbers.

Housing Market: New home sales dropped significantly, while pending home sales improved slightly but missed expectations.

GOLD

Gold prices remain within a range, with resistance at 2431.705 and support at 2295.536. A bullish trend is expected despite fluctuations.

SILVER

Silver prices showed growth, reaching 29.900 before settling at 29.018. Resistance is expected at 29.900, but an overall upward trend is anticipated.

DXY (Dollar Index)

The dollar index showed growth but may face weakness with the anticipated September rate cut. A bearish outlook is expected.

GBPUSD

The pound remains within a range. With potential rate cuts in both the U.K. and the U.S., significant price changes are unlikely in the near term.

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar shows upward momentum but needs to break above 0.67142 to confirm this trend. Analysts predict rate cuts only in late 2025, potentially benefiting the currency.

NZDUSD

Similar to the Aussie dollar, the New Zealand dollar shows growth and may benefit from delayed rate cuts until late 2025.

EURUSD

The ECB’s cautious rate cut approach has weakened the Euro. Further cuts are expected but at a slower pace, indicating potential continued weakness.

USDJPY

Despite interventions, the USDJPY continues to grow. Watch for further interventions and economic data to gauge future movements.

USDCHF

The Swiss Franc fell after recent rate cuts. Further rate cuts are uncertain, making the USDCHF volatile.

USDCAD

The CAD showed weakness against the dollar, with analysts predicting further rate cuts. Price consolidation is expected as we await more data.

Stay informed and practice diligent risk management as we navigate these challenging market conditions. More updates to come.

[headphonemouse]

Major orv spoilers discussing the Oldest Dream that quickly veers off-course into an investigation on Kim Dokja's age

I was thinking about the confrontation with the Oldest Dream. Kim Dokja doesn't look anything like his mother, so does he look like his father? An image of his father appeared once in the text but I forgot if his details were described. An uncertain amount of time over 13 years ago, his father might have been in his late 20s or early 30s. Having both come at that young boy with a blade, the similarities are really painful to think about

Imagining a world where he is so much more (powerful, adored, charismatic, courageous) than he is, maybe he felt like that other version of him was better off living instead. But he still didn't believe any version of himself had the right to exist happy and whole. Even so, he wanted someone to stop him from destroying and cutting off parts of himself. His frail, shameful past did not wish to be shorn off so callously

As a side note, I think the song Lion's Teeth fits him

Side note 2: I like to think he was 10 or 11 when his mom went to jail, 15 when he discovered WOS (canon), and [EDIT SEVERAL HOURS INTO WRITING THIS: EVERYTHING PAST THIS POINT HAS BEEN DISPROVEN (???) IN A REREAD OF CERTAIN SCENES (details below)*] 17 or 18 when he was seen at the train station (to account for the breadth of his knowledge of WOS. Sure the fixation could have settled in immediately but we don't know how far those first few chapters covered so im giving him a few years. Also imagining the scene where the outer god kings are holding him up in a human chariot with a big red arrow pointing at him like "South Korean Citizen of legal voting age" is funny.)

Okay because I just went into a research rabbit hole I'm breaking up the paragraph:

1. 18 is the age to vote in Presidential and National Assembly elections. 19 is the age to vote in legal elections (link, paragraph 1).

2. As of June 2023, South Korea has written their Korean Age Based on the New Year out of law (link, paragraph 2) so it's possible that when KDJ said "I'm 28 years old" in 2018, he was using his Korean Age. His International Age (age calculation system used by the entire rest of the world) would have been one year younger (thankfully he was born near the beginning of the year or else the age difference would have been close to 2 years). More evidence supporting his use of Korean Age instead of International Age: he said he was 15 in 8th grade. 15 is the age in Korean Years that kids attend 8th grade while their International Ages are 13-14 (link, section: School Grades).

3. If 8 in Korean Years is the age that kids enter the 1st grade, and his Korean Age is about 13 months over his International Age (did I do my math right???), he would have been on the older end of his grade level, at 7 years old in International Years among 6-7-year-olds. None of this has much to do with my original post, but it is interesting to note when thinking of his relationship with his peers and how small he seemed.

One more thing: South Koreans also age out of foster care at 18 so he would have REALLY needed the 999gang at this point. BUT: 1. I don't think bouncing around relatives counts as being in the foster care system and 2. Didn't he move out on his own early? I think I read that somewhere. I remember thinking that was way too young.

AHA

Chapter 408:

"I recalled the day I left the relatives' place for lodging in a hostel. I was seventeen back then."

THAT IS WAY TOO YOUNG. HE WOULD'VE BEEN 16 IN INTERNATIONAL YEARS. HE WAS PRESSURED BY HIS RELATIVES TO LEAVE AND SINCE THIS ISN'T PART OF THE FOSTER CARE SYSTEM HE DIDN'T EVEN GET ANY SEVERANCE PAY. ON TOP OF THEM HAVING STOLEN LEE SOOKYUNG'S MONEY I WISH THEY HAD SURVIVED THE APOCALYPSE JUST SO HAN SOOYOUNG COULD RIP THEM APART

Here's an additional passage from chapter 534 supporting my idea of when he became the Oldest Dream:

"Kim Dokja, 16 years old. 17, 18.

He'd consume this story and grow older, and eventually, become the 'Oldest Dream'."

Meaning he became the Oldest Dream AFTER turning 18 in Korean Years, 11th or 12th grade, 16-18 in International Years. He was still wearing a high school uniform so he'd have been 19 in Korean Years AT MOST.

[*Details from after rereading more scenes:

Chapter 285:

"During middle school, I even drew charts in the corner of my textbook."

Chapter 513:

"A thin, small-statured child who might have passed off as an elementary schooler were it not for his school uniform, was sitting on that bench. As if he was trying to memorise English words, he was busy scribbling something like a chart on his notebook."

SO. His uniform was NOT described as a high school uniform. He was small enough to be mistaken for an ELEMENTARY SCHOOLER, and he was doodling charts. This all points to him being 15 at the time they meet him on the platform.

Caveats: we still don't know how much was covered in the at most 11 months he's been reading WoS. It might be enough to get a basic understanding of power balances but it has nothing on adult KDJ's 13 years of reading. Also, the line from chapter 534 does not support the idea that he was still 15 when he became the Oldest Dream.

Maybe an 'oldest dream' is just a dream that's been held onto for a long time, instead of being a snapshot of a particular version of Kim Dokja at a particular age. Maybe all of him ever since the moment this dream germinated on that train platform has been the Oldest Dream.

This is ridiculous. Kid discovers a book he really likes and the first time he thinks "man I wish I could help these characters out alongside them" a future version of himself (who may or may not look just like his dad) pops out of a train and tries to kill him and then himself. And then his favorite characters also come out and lift him up, though it's uncertain if he's even read up to the 999th regression yet. I mean 1/13 of 1863 is 143 so if WoS were evenly paced no he would not have read about them yet. But WoS was NOT evenly paced so we can't tell.