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mariacallous · 9 months ago

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Attitudes on the war paint a complex picture where existential security threats are twisted by domestic political dynamics, but a sense of weariness is becoming evident even in the region's most pro-Ukrainian countries.

Like Poland, Czechia has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters since the earliest days of the war. Yet after more than two years of a conflict that shows little sign of ending, the mood has soured.

One of the latest surveys found that about 65 per cent of Czechs were in favour of an early end to the war even at the expense of territorial losses to Russia. The figure has not significantly changed over the past year, but it speaks volumes in a country where the “Munich betrayal” of 1938 remains one of the darkest stains in the country’s modern history.

The STEM poll also found that a majority of the population opposes negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU (64 per cent) and is against continued military support to Kyiv (54 per cent).

On the other hand, humanitarian aid to Ukraine is supported by nearly three-quarters of the population, and 64 per cent of Czechs are in favour of anti-Russian sanctions, suggesting that although a level of weariness may have set in, Czechs are far from unconcerned by Ukraine’s plight.

A bit more than half of the population still supports the temporary stay of Ukrainian refugees in the country, about 20 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the conflict. According to new Eurostat data, Czechia has the most Ukrainian refugees per capita in the EU at about 350,000, though Poland has the most in the region in actual numbers at almost 1 million.

And citing concerns relating to crime, employment, or housing availability, more than two out of every five Czechs concede that their attitude towards Ukrainian refugees has become more negative as of late. Attacks reported to the police are rising.

“International comparisons show that negative perceptions of refugees from Ukraine are significantly higher in Eastern Europe,” Darja Bergman from the STEM/MARK agency explains to BIRN, suggesting that “Ukraine’s neighbours could become its biggest opponents if the country is admitted to the EU.”

“War fatigue is setting in, but it must not become a trend,” President Petr Pavel said in February as he welcomed Ukrainian refugees at Prague Castle, also cautioning that the war and amount of suffering experienced by Ukrainians “will not disappear once we stop noticing it”.

Were the coalition government of Prime Minister Petr Fiala more popular, its steadfast support for Ukraine might work as a catalyst to rally the country behind Kyiv. But given the population’s deep lack of trust in the ruling coalition, the opposite is more likely. According to the same survey, nearly half of Czechs oppose the government’s scheme to provide hundreds of thousands of artillery shells to Kyiv. When the messenger is disliked, the message itself often bears the direct cost.

“People who disagree with any military equipment support to Ukraine are likely the ones who fear these actions might escalate the conflict and drag the nation into war,” says Bergman.

With disinformation widespread, domestic populists are all too happy for any opportunity to score points.

Mixing accusations against the government for forgetting the needs of Czechs and obscure calls for peace come what may, this strategy has been spearheaded by former premier Andrej Babis’s ANO party as it looks to win back power at next year’s parliamentary elections.

At the outset of the invasion in 2022, Babis had assured that “the ANO movement supports Fiala and his government in taking steps against Russian aggression in Ukraine”. A lot has changed since then, with the former prime minister mimicking the self-declared “pacifist” stance seen in Hungary and Slovakia, while frequently reminding people that his movement – whether in government or in opposition – could never, in all fairness, be accused of actually being pro-Russian.

Be that as it may, surveys have shown that ANO voters are the ones whose attitudes towards Ukraine, especially on the issue of military aid, have changed the most since spring 2022. “Significantly more Czechs are inclined to support peace agreements, even compared to countries [like France] where overall support for Ukraine is smaller,” another STEM/MARK study concluded.

Tomas Pojar, the national security advisor for the Czech government, is keen, however, to remind Czechs about the basics of peace diplomacy and power dynamics: “If the West did not support Ukraine, then Russian troops would be on the border with Slovakia and there would be nothing to negotiate about.”

Possibly more affected by ‘war fatigue’ than their Polish neighbours, but still more supportive than either their Slovak or Hungarian counterparts, Czechs appear to be staking out the middle ground, with little love lost for Russia but, as the war drags on and Ukraine’s ability to decisively win dwindles, with little appetite to support what they increasingly perceive as their government’s blind and wasteful policy in favour of Ukraine.

“It is obvious that we are very afraid of Russia, but we are not going to defend ourselves much,” summarised Jan Stransky, editor of Seznam Zpravy.

Poland tires of ‘demanding’ refugees

The new Polish government has maintained the steadfast pro-Ukrainian line initiated under the previous Law and Justice (PiS) government, continuing to demand that the West takes a more active role in the war and increases military aid to Ukraine. However, with about a million Ukrainian refugees still living in Poland more than two years since the start of the full-scale war, social attitudes related to helping Ukraine have been changing.

In mid-June, the results of annual research into attitudes towards Ukrainian migrants coordinated by Robert Staniszewski from Warsaw University were published. “What really surprised us was that there was a significant drop in support on all matters related to helping Ukrainians, except for the issue of school attendance,” Staniszewski told the daily Rzeczpospolita.

According to the findings, 95 per cent of Poles believe that financial benefits for Ukrainian refugees should be reduced; 60 per cent also said they would like to see the refugees returning to their own country once the war is over.

Additionally, only 31 per cent of those interviewed were certain Poland should continue to support Ukraine, as compared to 62 per cent in January 2023. And 72 per cent of interviewees said that, regardless of the fact that the war is still ongoing, Poland should primarily watch out for its own interests.

The main reason Poles were less supportive of Ukrainians, as indicated by the study, is a perceived “demanding attitude” among the latter. The survey also showed that unlike previous years, Poles were now more inclined to see cultural differences between them and Ukrainians, whom they consider having “an Eastern mentality and Soviet culture”, manifesting itself, among ways, in a “lack of concern for the common good”.

The only exception in the whole survey, its author pointed out, was the high level of support for Ukrainian children attending Polish public schools, which was favoured by 82 per cent of the interviewees. Poles, however, did not think that Ukrainian kids should learn based on a Ukrainian curriculum, but rather from the Polish one (50 per cent) or a new one agreed by Poland and Ukraine (40 per cent).

Like other countries in the region, Polish society has been a target of Russian disinformation, and far-right politicians and activists have been promoting an anti-Ukrainian message in the public space. At the same time, the Polish government has only recently started work on a migration policy for the country, which would include strategies for integration.

As of July 1, the government is actually planning changes to the financial support offered to Ukrainian refugees. Importantly, a 40-zloty (around 10 euro) daily subsidy for food and accommodation will end, with significant consequences among the most vulnerable refugees. Some collective accommodation centres, including a well-known Refugee House in the eastern city of Lublin, are expected to shut because of this measure. The government will additionally link the 800+ child subsidy to attending school, in an effort to bring more of the Ukrainian kids left out of the system into Polish education.

Slovakia’s ‘balancing’ act

The increasingly ambivalent attitudes of Czechs and Poles towards Ukraine and the war are bringing them more into line with those of Hungarians and Slovaks.

People in Slovakia – a country plagued by disinformation, both from internal and external sources, and an associated tendency of the public to lap it up – exhibit a general scepticism over the war and have seemingly contradictory stances on Russia, NATO, the EU and US.

The current three-party coalition exemplifies this. Running on a platform of “not a single bullet to Ukraine”, Robert Fico’s Smer party promised to reverse the staunchly pro-Ukrainian policy of previous coalition governments since 2020 that was backed by former president Zuzana Caputova.

Yet since assuming power in October 2023 with its two coalition partners – the Smer splinter group of Hlas and the extreme-right Slovak National Party (SNS) – Fico’s pledge apparently carried a footnote, according to Matej Kandrik of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA): “this policy applies only to supplies from Slovak Armed Forces stockpiles, and in no way affects commercial, contractual deals.”

Also, one of Smer’s criticisms of the previous government and a major target of its election campaign was the defence cooperation agreement signed with the US in 2022. However, the ruling party hasn’t mentioned any plans to abrogate it nor leave the Alliance.

Likewise, surveys show most of the public think that NATO is a guarantee of Slovakia remaining a safe country during Russia’s war in Ukraine, yet at the same time support for NATO membership in Slovakia remains low compared to that in other countries. In the latest GLOBSEC Trends 2024 survey, 49 per cent perceive Russia as a threat, which is significantly higher than in 2021, though those who see the US as a threat is the highest in the region, at 41 per cent. Meanwhile, more Slovaks think the West or Ukraine itself is to blame for the war (51 per cent) than Russia (41 per cent).

Sociologists explain these contradictions by citing the country’s history, geography and innate feelings that the best geopolitical position for the country is to remain balanced. “Although we don’t support Russia, and we fear it, we believe that the best strategy today is geopolitical neutrality,” Robert Klobucky of the Slovak Academy of Sciences was quoted by TASR as saying.

The relative success of communism in Slovakia – those decades saw the transformation of rural Slovakia into an industrialised country with rising living standards – also helps explain why sentiment towards the former regime in Slovakia (and by extension Russia) is higher than in neighbouring countries.

Hungarian talking points

Hungarian public support for Ukraine from the outset of the war was low and, according to Eurobarometer polls, has further deteriorated over the past two years.

The most recent survey, conducted in spring this year, found that only 56 per cent of Hungarians support the EU’s financial aid to Ukraine; less than half of society (45 per cent) agrees with the EU financing the purchase of military equipment for Ukraine; and even fewer, only 42 per cent, support Ukraine’s EU candidacy.

A local survey conducted by the renowned pollster Tibor Zavecz paints an even gloomier picture, with only 32 per cent supporting financial aid and a mere 16 per cent military help.

That survey also reveals deep divisions within Hungarian society. Some 77 per cent of Fidesz voters would not support Ukraine at all (not even with humanitarian aid), while 37 per cent of left-wing voters would be willing to provide military aid. The new Tisza party of Fidesz-insider-cum-critic Peter Magyar is a mixed camp: 44 per cent of its supporters support financial and humanitarian aid, 25 per cent would be willing to provide military support, but 29 per cent would give nothing.

Hungary is generally at the bottom of all polls when it comes to positive attitudes towards Ukraine. “But there is a crucial difference,” Andras Racz, senior fellow at the German think-tank DGAP and senior lecturer at Corvinus University in Budapest, tells BIRN. “Although public support for Ukraine is low in Bulgaria, Greece and Slovakia, these governments still support Ukraine because they see strategic interests overriding public opinion.”

That’s not the case in Hungary, where Viktor Orban’s government is doing everything in its power to block EU aid to Ukraine, including currently 6.5 billion euros from the European Peace Facility.

Racz adds that the perception of Ukraine in Hungarian society was already quite negative in 2017 – five years before Russia’s full-scale invasion – largely due to a controversial language law passed that year which limited the use of minority languages, including Hungarian, in education. (The Ukrainian parliament has since adopted amendments to the law, meeting almost all of Hungary’s demands.)

“But the perception [of Ukraine] has radically deteriorated since the war, mainly due to government propaganda, which paints a completely distorted picture of reality,” says Racz. “The mass propaganda fell into an information vacuum in Hungary, with a society knowing very little about its eastern neighbour.”

Hungary has historically been very active in the Balkans, but showed little interest towards Ukraine. This lack of knowledge helped the government’s propaganda efforts gain traction.

Contrary to many European countries, Orban’s government clearly sees the war in Ukraine as a propaganda tool to be used in its domestic political agenda: weeks before the European and local elections on June 9, the government campaigned on the false narrative that the EU is about to send its young people to war (including Hungarian women), which triggered existential fear among many families, mostly those residing in the countryside.

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beardedmrbean · 11 months ago

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Finnish morning newspapers give readers extensive coverage of Wednesday's assassination attempt against Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico.

In reaction to the shooting, Katalin Miklóssy, a researcher at the University of Helsinki's Aleksanteri Institute, told Helsingin Sanomat that while this was the act of a single person, it reflects a division that is affecting the whole of Europe.

Miklóssy stressed that it is still difficult to draw conclusions from the shooting, as there is no certainty about the motive of the suspected shooter.

"But it is clear that Slovakia, like many other European countries, is becoming polarised. This means that we are entering a period of strong confrontation," she said.

The problem, according to Miklóssy, is the harsh language of politics. She pointed out that political debate is filled by hatred and parties are divided. Politicians are increasingly under threat of violence.

"The low threshold for the use of violence in the run-up to the EU election campaign is visible in very many countries, and not only in the East. It bodes very badly for the EU elections," Miklóssy told HS.

Heino Nyyssönen, a lecturer in political science at the University of Turku, stated that the shooting can undoubtedly be seen as "a very heavy-handed attempt to intimidate politicians" at the European level.

Nyyssönen drew attention to the timing of the shooting incident, with EU elections are only a few weeks away.

Although some politicians have already described the shooting as an attack on democracy, Nyyssönen stressed that the motive of the suspected shooter is as of yet unknown.

"Do we want to see this as the act of an individual, or is about something broader?" asked Nyyssönen.

He described Wednesday's shooting to Helsingin Sanomat as "the nightmare of all security services and politicians".

"You could say that this represents what has been talked about a lot recently, that the threat of violence is increasing and is specifically targeting politicians."

Palestine protest continues

Hufvudstadsbladet reports that a pro-Palestinian demonstration on the University of Helsinki campus is continuing after a Wednesday evening meeting of the Board of Governors delayed a decision on a demands to cut ties with Israeli universities.

Organised by a group called Students for Palestine, the protesters argue that the university should terminate all exchange student agreements and research cooperation with Israeli educational institutions.

As the board was gathering to discuss the issue, student group spokesperson Kevin Soovik told the paper that there was a lot of excitement in the air, but the evening ended in disappointment for the protesters when it became clear that a decision was not forthcoming.

"Given the urgency of the issue, we had hoped for a clear position already. We don't know what the content of the statement will be, but in general people here are disappointed now," he told the Swedish-language daily.

Soovik, along with many other demonstrators, said they will continue their protest.

The Chair of the Board of Governors of the University of Helsinki, Emeritus Professor Niklas Bruun, told the paper that the issue led to a long, in-depth discussion at Wednesday's meeting.

"This concerns major issues of principle. It is a serious matter. The board took this very seriously," he said.

Bruun was unwilling to say how discussions will move forward, or how the members of the board positioned themselves on the issue. He did tell the paper that a statement of guidelines is to be expected within a few days.

Charging tourists

Visitors to Helsinki's Lutheran Cathedral, Suomenlinna Church and St John's Church (Johanneksenkirkko) will be charged an entrance fee from June through August this year, reports the local paper Helsingin Uutiset.

The capital's Lutheran Cathedral will have an entrance fee of eight euros. Entrance to the church on Suomenlinna and to St John's Church will cost five euros.

The Cathedral, which attracts hundreds of thousands of visitors a year, has been planning a summertime entrance fee for several years, mainly to help boost the parish budget.

There will continue to be no fee for entrance on weekday evenings from 6pm to 9pm and after services on Sundays, but it is closed to visitors on Friday afternoons and Saturdays for weddings and other events.

Access to the churches, also including the Kamppi Chapel, also known as the "Chapel of Silence," will be free of charge this summer to anyone holding a church pass. All Helsinki residents can get a church pass from parish church offices, regardless of whether they are members of the Evangelical Lutheran Church or not.

Sun + floods = summer

Just in case readers might not have yet noticed, Ilta-Sanomat shouts out that "SUMMER weather has arrived in Finland".

The paper quotes FMI meteorologist Tuukka Keränen as saying that temperatures may reach up to 27C in some areas on Thursday.

According to Keränen, the warmest areas will be inland in the south of the country and in western regions, Pirkanmaa, South Ostrobothnia and Central Finland.

Meanwhile, Savon Sanomat notes that warming weather will speed up the melt of snowcover in Lapland. Officials say that flood peaks in Lapland's rivers are expected at the end of this week or early next week.

Peak flows in the Tornio and Muonio rivers are forecast for early next week. In Kittilä, the water level in the Ounasjoki river will rise to levels that may cause some minor flooding over the weekend. The peak in the Teno river is expected to be higher than average this year.

#nunyas news #updates from up north

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head-post · 9 months ago

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EU on path to self-destruction, Hungarian PM says

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán accused EU leaders of self-destructive policies, unconditionally following US foreign policy interests, while extolling his “peace mission” as a success in his annual speech at a summer university in Băile Tușnad, Romania on Saturday, IntelliNews reports.

The Hungarian prime minister foresaw the emergence of Asia as a new world economic power and, to the surprise of many, had some harsh words for the new Polish government, accusing Warsaw of pursuing “the most deceitful policies.”

The annual summer university in Transylvania has become a meeting point between Fidesz’s political and cultural elite and ethnic Hungarians living outside the country. The five-day festival concludes with a keynote speech by the prime minister outlining his vision for the future, including on major geopolitical issues.

Those issues are often controversial. A year ago, Orbán caused a diplomatic storm by deriding Romania’s government and political system, as well as Slovakia’s left-liberal government, by labelling southern Slovakia with a significant ethnic Hungarian minority as “breakaway territories.”

Hungarians “do not want to be a mixed race”

At the same meeting in 2022, he caused an international outcry when he declared that Hungarians “do not want to be a mixed race” as in some Western European countries. Ten years ago, after his second election victory with a supermajority under modified rules, the Hungarian strongman used the term “illiberal democracy” for the first time, which in retrospect is seen as the first explicit acknowledgement of his shift to autocracy and the slow demise of Hungarian democracy.

Before travelling to the picturesque Băile Tușnad summer camp, Orbán was received in Bucharest by Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu to discuss bilateral relations, according to the prime minister’s press chief. As the current rotating EU presidency, Hungary will put Romania’s full accession to the Schengen zone on the agenda in autumn. The two leaders also discussed a high-speed railway link between Bucharest and Budapest, the statement said.

In his speech, Orbán called his trip around the world to Kyiv, Moscow, Beijing and Washington a success, saying there were signs of increased diplomatic activity since its end, mentioning a phone conversation between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, as well as a conversation between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

In his opinion, neither side wants to give up war, which leads to escalation of the conflict, so peace can only come from outside. He said:

Albeit slowly, we’re moving away from a European pro-war policy in the direction of a pro-peace policy.

Orbán’s self-proclaimed “peacekeeping mission” after the start of the country’s six-month council presidency has angered allies and prompted calls from some member states to end or shorten Hungary’s rotating EU presidency. The Hungarian prime minister has opposed arms deliveries to Kyiv and continues to try to block financial aid to the country.

Russia’s position is rational and predictable, Hungarian PM says

Orbán called Russia’s position in world affairs rational and predictable, in contrast to the “weakness” of the West. He said Russia had shown economic flexibility in adapting to Western sanctions, while Ukraine’s resilience, he said, was due to the fact that Ukraine had gained ‘a glimmer of perspective of belonging to the West’ instead of being a buffer state.

Orbán said European policy had “failed,” arguing that Europe had abandoned the defence of its interests to unconditionally follow the policies of the US Democratic Party, adding that sanctions imposed against Russia were harming European interests, raising energy prices and making the European economy uncompetitive. The Hungarian government blamed Western sanctions for its economic mismanagement, soaring inflation and soaring budget deficit in 2023, arguing that the sanctions hurt the EU more than Russia.

He went on to say that if Europe does not move to a “peace policy” by the time of the November election, it will have to do so after Trump’s victory, “admitting defeat” and taking the political consequences alone.

Orbán is the only EU leader to come out in favour of the former president, and he hopes Trump’s election victory will raise his profile in Europe. Hungarian PM has been criticised by US Ambassador David Pressman for “spreading Kremlin conspiracy theories about the United States.” Pressman wrote on X:

Hardly what we expect from an ally.

He also criticised Poland for wanting to become “the main European stronghold of the United States” and for pursuing “the most deceitful policy” in Europe, saying that while Warsaw was “shamelessly doing business with the Russians,” they were “morally lecturing us for doing the same.” Orbán said Poland had abandoned Visegrad cooperation to form a new centre of power with London, the Baltic states and Scandinavia.

He said the idea of replacing the Paris-Berlin axis was not a new one, but rather an ‘old Polish plan’ to turn Poland into the main American base on the continent.

Poland’s Deputy Foreign Minister Wladyslaw Teofil Bartoszewski said on Sunday that Orbán’s policies were now anti-European, anti-Ukrainian and anti-Polish, adding that the Hungarian prime minister was currently blocking the return to Poland of PLN2bn (€467m) for military equipment transferred to Ukraine.

Read more HERE

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blog-24news · 2 years ago

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Sanctions-hit IIB admits it is suffering a liquidity crisis

The Russian-dominated International Investment Bank (IIB), which was hit by US sanctions last week, announced on April 17 that it was unable to meet its obligations but would nevertheless still try to “honour its commitments towards its partners in full”.

“IIB states that currently, because of the imposed US sanctions, it has been deprived of the possibility to fulfil obligations to its counterparties,” it said in a brief statement. “Nevertheless, the bank has accumulated enough financial resources and assets to honour commitments towards its partners in full. IIB has already begun to contact corresponding authorities with a view to obtain appropriate licences and other necessary decisions to be able to fulfil these undertakings.”

The Budapest-based international development bank has in effect finally officially admitted that it is facing a liquidity crisis after being frozen out of international financial markets. At the same time it insists that it is not insolvent. Its statement implies that it will try to renegotiate terms with its bondholders to make its payments.

A spokeswoman told bne blog-24news that liquidity was less the issue than how to make the actual payments under sanctions. "There is enough liquidity in this bank to fully meet all obligations for a rather long perspective. It’s the execution of payments which is now a huge problem," she said.

The announcement marks the end of both Russia’s attempt to build a counterpart to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s dream of turning Budapest into an international financial centre. It also symbolises the collapse of Orban's pro-Kremlin policy, which has so damaged the country’s reputation in the West.

Last week Orban said the future operation of the bank had "become impossible" after US sanctions were imposed on April 12.

Hungary, the largest shareholder after Russia, therefore had had to reluctantly leave the IIB, Orban said on April 14 in an interview to state radio. Hungary was the last EU member, following the withdrawal of Bulgaria, Czechia, Slovakia and Romania after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Leaked internal documents show that even before the imposition of sanctions the bank had been teetering on the brink of collapse after it was completely cut off from Western financial systems. The market expectation is now that IIB will soon cease operations due to insolvency.

Imre Boros, a Hungarian board member of IIB, said in a television interview the US sanctions against the bank would render its operation impossible. IIB's accounts will be blocked, it will not be able to transfer money, he said. It will be virtually destroyed by the punitive measures, "like a terrorist bombing", he added.

The Hungarian connection

IIB was originally established in 1970 as the Comecon bank, serving the then Soviet bloc’s economic area and Third World countries. The then Moscow-based bank went dormant during the collapse of the Soviet Union and was revived only in the early 2010s to support the expansion of Russia’s financial interests.

Hungary renewed its membership in IIB in October 2014, after a decade-long absence, following Orban’s second supermajority victory. This came nine months after the prime minister’s trip to Moscow, where he sealed the largest deal in Hungary’s history, assigning construction of the €12.5bn expansion of the Paks nuclear power plant without a tender to Russian state-owned Rosatom as the main constructor. Budapest and Moscow amended the terms of the contract last week.

Political analysts see 2014 as the turning point and the beginning of the end of liberal democracy in Hungary and the pivot to a Russian-style illiberal regime, which Orban openly acknowledged in a speech in the summer of 2014.

According to a leading Hungarian geopolitical analyst, Csaba Kancz, it was Orban’s former chief foreign adviser and former diplomat, Janos Balla, who proposed to the prime minister to raise the question of having the bank’s HQ relocated to Budapest in talks with the Russian president back when Hungary rejoined the bank.

The Hungarian government argued that moving the IIB’s seat to Hungary would strengthen the country’s role as an international financial centre. It also fitted well into the government's “Opening to the East” policy, which aimed to bolster economic ties with Russia, China and other emerging markets outside the EU.

"There are five supra-national development banks headquartered in the EU, but none of them are in Central Europe”, Orban said after meeting with IIB chairman Nikolay Kosov in Budapest in 2019.

Russia, as the biggest shareholder in the bank, also endorsed the idea to make IIB appear as less of a Kremlin operation.

IIB management sought to tap the advantages of moving to an EU capital and being the only multilateral development bank based in Central Europe. It began focussing much more of its lending in the Europe Union and sought to spread its client network to Western European multilaterals as well as to companies based in its member states. It was particularly strong in trade finance and lending to local SMEs.

It successfully issued several bonds in local currencies and euros in its member states to fund its activities, achieving low yields. In 2020 the IIB became the first multilateral bank to launch two forint-denominated bond issues on the Budapest Stock Exchange. It participated in the issuance of the first Hungarian sovereign green bond in June, and then became one of the largest investors in the first green corporate bond issued by CPI Hungary Investments in August.

Credit rating agencies were also positive about the move. In a November 2018 note, Fitch said that the bank’s decision to relocate to a EU capital could lead to a positive rating action due to the improvement of the bank's business environment. Fitch then upgraded its rating to ‘A-‘ in September 2020 after the move.

In 2018 December IIB member states unanimously voted for the proposal to relocate to Budapest. IIB officially started its activity in Budapest on April 2019.

In February 2021, IIB inaugurated its new Budapest HQ in the landmark Lanchid Palota building, next to the iconic Chain Bridge endowed by the government. Speaking at the ceremony, Finance Minister Mihaly Varga said the relocation had helped to raise Hungary's international profile as well as support its economic players.

US opposes bank from the outset

However, the IIB never really posed a financial challenge to the Western banking infrastructure. The bank remained tiny compared to the EU’s EIB or the Western-dominated European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

According to the IIB’s 2021 annual report, issued in February last year, the bank’s paid-in capital reached €424.9mn, compared to €6.2bn for the EBRD. Its assets amounted to €1.8bn, compared to the EBRD’s €34.3bn in operating assets. While it made a record – though still tiny – profit of €7.9mn, the EBRD made €2.5bn net profit in 2021.

Moreover, the United States had expressed grave reservations over the relocation from the onset, and quickly moved to make the bank's position impossible after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Washington successfully blocked the lender from having its HQ alongside the US Embassy in Hungary at the landmark Freedom Square, close to the parliament building. According to investigative news site Direkt 36, Orban assured then US Ambassador David Cornstein in May 2019 that the IIB could not pick a location for its office near the US embassy or any other Nato member country. Later, Cornstein told a congressional delegation visiting Budapest that US and Hungarian intelligence services would cooperate in monitoring IIB.

Critics warned that the IIB could serve intelligence and political purposes for Russia, particularly because of the diplomatic immunity granted to bank employees and guests.

In the spring of 2019, the government stipulated that much like the staff of other international financial institutions, IIB staff in Budapest would enjoy broad diplomatic immunities. However, it was forced to reduce the number of staff with immunity under pressure from the United States.

The family roots of the IIB chairman also added to speculation that the Russian-dominated lender would operate as a spy nest for the Kremlin. Chairman Nikolay Kosov’s parents moved to Hungary in the early 1970s when his father was appointed head of the operation of the KGB, the Soviet Union’s security and intelligence agency, in Hungary. The KGB office was on the same floor as the Ministry of the Interior in the centre of Budapest.

Hack attack reveals IIB’s financial woes

As a multilateral institution, the bank was not directly hit by the sanctions introduced against Russia for its annexation of Crimea. However, the IIB’s position quickly deteriorated. Bulgaria, Czechia, Slovakia and Romania announced plans to exit the bank. The four EU members had €134.6mn in total paid-in capital in IBB and demanded it back.

Following the announcement of the exit of the four countries, Fitch Ratings withdrew the IIB's ratings, and Moody’s downgraded the bank to non-investment grade.

Worse, Belgian-based Euroclear, a financial service provider that registers and administers securities transactions, blocked IIB’s accounts linked to the EU sanctions against Russia, as the IIB account was opened by a Russian lender Rosbank. According to a 2022 year-end summary, €75mn of money in IIB’s accounts were blocked.

The impact of this on the bank’s liquidity was revealed in February, when hackers attacked IIB’s IT network, resulting in an unauthorised mass fake e-mail distribution on behalf of certain IIB officials. More importantly, hackers gained access to internal correspondence, documentation and sensitive information, shedding light on the bank’s financial troubles.

The leaked files, which included email correspondence and internal memos of the management, were reported on by regional investigative and news outlet VSquare. According to these files, the blocking of the IIB’s Euroclear account had created liquidity problems that were so severe that by March 2022 IIB was close to bankruptcy.

An internal letter to management highlighted the devastating effects of the decision: "IIB used up almost all other liquidity reserves in 2022 and as such, without access to its bonds in Euroclear, the bank will be forced to default or restructure its bonds as soon as May 2023," the leaked letter said. The letter claims that the bank faces a financial shortfall so severe that it is "a near impossible task" to make it better.

The leaked documentation also showed that the bank was seriously considering a"zero option" proposal of the management, in which the exiting shareholders would leave the bank empty-handed.

The exits had strengthened Hungary’s stake in the bank, which is based on paid-in capital of around €108mn. Hungary had 9.9% of shares when it rejoined the bank in 2015, which rose gradually to 17.3% in 2022, and after it took over the shares of Czechia and Slovakia it grew to 25.3%, making it the second-largest shareholder after Russia, with a 45.4% stake.

Hungary tried to assist the stricken development bank. There were discussions – now largely moot – about engineering the shareholdings so that Russia did not become a majority owner, which would have triggered EU sanctions.

Moreover, according to leaked documents, Hungarian Minister of Economic Development Marton Nagy lobbied to have the Euroclear accounts unfrozen in a letter sent to Belgian Minister of Finance Vincent Van Peteghem, and a Hungarian delegation was also ready to travel to Brussels to discuss the issue. The bank calculated that if they had access to securities, they could meet their obligations to their European and Russian creditors up until mid-2025.

However, Belgian authorities turned down the Russian’s request, saying several members of the IIB’s governing bodies are currently linked to the Russian government, like the Russian deputy finance minister, who is a member of the bank’s board of governors.

After the negative response, CFO Elliott Auckland outlined an "evacuation plan". The bank would agree with the European authorities to somehow get its money back from Euroclear, in return for which it would be used exclusively to pay off their European investors. This plan does not seem to have progressed and it now looks too late.

Last week the US placed the IIB and three of its senior executives resident in Hungary, Nikolay Kosov, Georgy Potapov, and Imre Laszloczki on its sanctions list.

IIB’s presence in Budapest enables Russia to increase its intelligence presence in Europe, opens the door for the Kremlin’s malign influence activities in Central Europe and the Western Balkans, and could serve as a mechanism for corruption and illicit finance, including sanctions violations, according to the US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).

Given the US’s importance in the world financial system, these sanctions will make it impossible for the IIB to operate in the international environment. The IIB’s statement on April 17 merely recognises this fact.

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usnewsper-politics · 1 year ago

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Slovakians elect pro-Western parties in response to journalist's murder #elections #Europe #Russia #slovakia #Ukraine

#Politics #elections #Europe #Russia #slovakia #Ukraine

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eaukraine-eu · 1 year ago

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Slovakia is using all its legal capabilities and influence to veto the document on the broad integration of Ukraine into the structures of the North Atlantic Alliance. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico announced this the day before. According to him, at present Kyiv is not ready to join the Western military bloc “neither morally nor physically.” Fico's speech had the effect of a bomb exploding. Especially against the backdrop of the position of the Hungarian leader Viktor Orban, who not so long ago promised that his country would actually close the doors to Ukraine in both NATO and the EU. However, here the Slovak leader, also known for his pro-Russian sentiments, went much further than his Hungarian counterpart. Firstly, Fico immediately emphasized that Bratislava, even privately, would not provide military assistance to Kyiv in the form of providing it with weapons and equipment. They say this could indirectly involve Slovakia in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Secondly, if Ukraine joins the Alliance, Bratislava will have to allocate millions of funds to reform the Ukrainian army - This could become a serious test for the Slovak economy. And finally - the main thing. “Ukraine’s membership in NATO could well be the beginning of the Third World War,” summed up the head of the Slovak Cabinet of Ministers in particular. Apparently, by this phrase Fico meant the entry into force of one of the clauses of the Alliance Charter, according to which, in the event of an external attack on a single member country, the entire structure intervenes in the conflict. The Slovak state will never agree to such a development of events, the politician expressed confidence. It should be especially noted that Slovakia, as an active member of NATO, actually has the levers listed by Fico to influence Brussels. According to some reports, it is they who plan to use them at the next meeting of the Alliance summit, where the so-called “Ukrainian issue” will be considered. It is still unknown whether the Slovak authorities will implement these threats and warnings.

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purplepink-blueberry · 11 months ago

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hello everyone, an update and clarification of stuff

this information is based of Denník N, which is a mostly reliable news source. also, this info is as of 10 pm of the 15th of may 2024.

the PM was shot 3 times (as far as we know) in the town of Handlová in central Slovakia. the weapon fired 4 times. the PM's security fucked up massively, based on the video I saw (recorded by RTV Prievidza). it is in this man's tradition to greet people and shake hands with them personally. it's a big part of his marketing. so he was doing just that, he approached a barrier and from behind the barrier, a shooter started shooting. the security was on the other side of the barriers and while they were able to reach the guy, they didn't (or couldn't) prevent him from shooting, they took him down once they got over the barrier. i think this is a massive fuck up cause there were multiple guys in charge of this guy's security and he got shot. but i also have to say, the fact that the PM greets people like that all the time probably helped the situation. also the fact that this is the first time it happened here, so the guys were probably also taken aback. nonetheless, they had one job and they weren't too successful at it.

anyway, back to the PM. it is reported that he was awake during his transport to the hospital (apparently they used the delegation's car to take him to a hospital probably in Handlová if they have a hospital, idk i've never been there, and then they took him to a hospital in the closest city with a helicopter). right now, he is in banská bystrica and undergoing surgery. The reports are changing, so far I've heard that he was shot in the chest, the abdomen, his arm and his leg. The most reliable will be probably to say abdomen and a limb and the abdominal wound has damaged multiple organs (plus dude's heart is not in the best shape and prolly his liver is suffering too - he is likely an alcoholic)

according to the news, his state is critical and life threatening. people (politicians who are there) are emotional (which is fair enough). frankly, at the moment, i am just refreshing the news.

Someone asked about the president elect and the assassination threat and this PM. So, a little backstory and some names. Our PM, Robert Fico, is from a party called SMER-SD (Direction-Social Democracy). Really, this party is not social democratic at all, but the name is the name. They suck and they are corrupt and might have been partially entangled in the murder of a journalist, Ján Kuciak, in 2018. But anyway. Fico is the guy who got shot. Peter Pellegrini was elected as president in early April, the inaugurations are probably sometime in June (I think that's how it was last time). He is originally from SMER-SD party but in 2020 (i think) he and a couple of others created a party called Hlas-SD (Voice/Vote-Social Democracy). Again, not really a social democracy. Just a little bit less crazy version of SMER. They are both in the coalition. Old political pals, now rivals and pals at the same time.

Anyway, the atmosphere in Slovakia is incredibly tense and there have been violent attacks (most notably, a terror attack in front of a queer bar, Tepláreň, in October 2022). While our political system is multi-party, there are essentially two camps: pro-coalition and anti-coalition. Coalition consists of the two wannabe-social-democratic parties I mentioned above and a far right nationalist party called "Slovak National Party". The coalition is pro-Russian, which in Slovak terms also goes with being queerphobic, especially transphobic, racist, anti-immigrant, misogynistic... you know, all of that. And also anti-vaxxer and believing in the conspiracy theories that facemasks impant microchips in our noses and shit like that. So yeah, that's our government and its supporters. THen you have those against it: anyone who is pro-European Union ranging from conservative catholics who are pro-EU to the most leftist, most progressive whatever person they have. And especially NGOs, journalists and activists. So this is the climate we're in and it is very tense.

so a couple weeks ago i think the PM, Fico, started talking about assassination plots on Pellegrini, because evil opposition and journalists and whatnot. I don't know where his claims came from, I know they were identified as a hoax, at least in the SME newspaper a classmate of mine read aloud to practice his Slovak pronunciation.

So yeah, Fico was scaring us that someone was set to assassinate Pellegrini and he was the one who... well, wasn't assassinated YET but we'll see how his surgeries go

also something about the shooter who was apprehended and arrested on scene, he is racist, has ties to a nationalist pro-Russian organisation, and also is 71 years old.

soooo our PM just got shot by just, i mean... they reported it an hour and half ago?

it is very chaotic. he is both okay and dying (well, some media reported he was not in the risk of dying and then the governmental office said he was very much in the risk of death so idk who to believe).

interesting fact is that it is he who was scaring us with a possible assassination attempt at our almost-president (elected to become a president, not yet sworn in)

What is also interesting is the way people reacted. the opposition is mostly saying "oh no how terrible violence bad we hope the PM makes it" while the coalition is blaming the opposition and journalists.

i think that says something about the state of our politics and also freedom of press

anyway, our constitution doesn't say what's supposed to happen if the PM dies. and denník n (one of the most reliable sources in slovakia) said that if the PM is incapacitated for a long period of time, they are supposed to appoint someone from the ministers to act in their stead. idk how that works if the PM can't appoint anyone due to circumstances that might occur, such as coma or death though, that is quite unprecedented

anyway those are my two eurocents on this as a political science student who should really be actually studying but instead, i read the news, the constitution and then write this

#robert fico #ťumblr #slovakia #slovak politics #ťumbľr #slovensko #čumlbr #slovenský tumblr #it is currently 10 30 pm and i am tired i also turned off grammarly so you have to deal with typos and run on sentences #i am also not a journalist i wasnt there and if i dont state my source or that something is my opinion then in this case its dennik n #anyway this is not good and its not gonna be good #blueberry’s yapping

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newsworld-nw · 1 year ago

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The EU wants unity against its loose clauses in Hungary and Slovakia

It isn't simply Hungarian Viktor Orbán. The arrival of a brand new Slovak prime minister, the pro-Russian Robert Fico, has proven that free verses threaten EU seams simply as Brussels breathes a sigh of aid with Poland's return to the fold, thanks nearly actually. The nomination of Donald Tusk as the brand new Prime Minister after eight years of anti-European and populist authorities by the Regulation and Justice Social gathering (PIS).After Ukraine, now the battle within the Center East - with new open fronts - twenty-seven weeks sought to provide a powerful picture of unity to what was already fragile, with out the incoherent gestures of the Hungarian prime minister and his current Brussels, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has triggered deep unrest within the EU, his Assembly in China. Added to that is the thriller of the brand new Slovak head of presidency, who got here to energy promising to finish navy help to Ukraine, which he introduced earlier than touchdown within the Belgian capital to fulfill along with his European companions.The assembly of heads of state and authorities in Brussels this Thursday was additionally Hungarian Orbán's first assembly along with his European counterparts since his essential assembly with Putin, which sparked widespread outrage for a very good a part of 27. Removed from expressing anger, Orban appeared "proud" of his assembly in Beijing after his arrival on the European Council this Thursday, simply as 600 days have handed for the reason that conflict in Ukraine, with the Russian president, who has been below arrest warrant since March for "unlawful deportation of Ukrainian kids". Arrested by the Worldwide Felony Courtroom on expenses of conflict crimes for involvement."Russia and Hungary have a standard neighbor, Ukraine. We now have a peace technique and we need to hold all channels of communication open. It is a technique we're happy with," stated Orban, who has advocated a ceasefire between Moscow and Kiev."We're totally different from the bulk, from the ways right here," he admitted to the press. "You could have a conflict technique, we've a peace technique and we need to do every little thing for peace," he pressured.Though many international locations do not forget that Orbán is an outdated acquaintance and it's troublesome for him to shock, the assembly went badly on the eve of a gathering, the place, in accordance with varied diplomatic sources, a number of leaders wished to rebuke the Hungarian prime minister. For his interview with Putin."Within the face of a rustic (Ukraine) that's attacked day-after-day by Russia, it is a actual reduce within the sleeve," Luxembourg's outgoing prime minister, Xavier Bettel, criticized after his arrival on the summit. The Lithuanian head of presidency additionally didn't cover his anger. The EU "doesn't have the appropriate to conflict fatigue" in Ukraine, "one thing essential in the mean time as a result of I see that some international locations are beginning to set up a form of particular diplomacy with the regime, whose military is committing atrocities," he commented.Putin "is a conflict legal: he began this conflict of aggression in opposition to a sovereign nation, he deported kids, the Worldwide Felony Courtroom issued arrest warrants. "I do not need to be in the identical image as that man," stated Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas.Additionally in Paris, the Chinese language assembly between Putin and Orbán collapsed. "It's clear that the sign despatched by that image just isn't optimistic or helpful," fairly one thing "not very helpful," famous Elysée sources on the eve of the Brussels summit, though on the similar time they recalled that, though the Hungarian explosion, "on the underside line" 20- Seven are shifting ahead and consensus has been reached on key Ukrainian points.Because the spring, Budapest has blocked the newest bundle of 500 million euros in navy help for Ukraine, whose president Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the 20-seven through video convention this Thursday to "stress Ukraine's accession to the EU, how safety" connects Europe and the Center East and the previous. European unity is required to keep away from errors."A message that the brand new Slovak prime minister, Robert Fico, will need to have heard, was seen with reluctance by his European companions, exactly due to his pro-Russian stance. On the eve of the assembly, a number of capitals known as for a vote of confidence in him, arguing that it's not the identical when somebody is campaigning as soon as they've taken workplace.The indicators, nevertheless, do not look good: Simply because the leaders have been arriving in Brussels, Fico made good on his marketing campaign promise and introduced the top of navy help to Ukraine. "We contemplate help to Ukraine solely humanitarian and civilian help, we'll now not provide arms to Ukraine," he introduced a day after taking workplace in a coalition with the pro-Russian far-right social gathering.The impression of the choice, reacted European diplomatic sources in Brussels, is minimal or non-existent, since Slovakia has already exhausted its stockpile of weapons that it could possibly provide to Ukraine. And that is not a shock both, they added. Nevertheless, the message continues to be disturbing at a time when many European leaders have warned to not "cease wanting" at Ukraine regardless of the rising battle within the Center East.The uneasiness over Orbán's newest problem and the uncertainty that Fico nonetheless represents represents a distinction to the large aid with which Brussels greeted the victory of the coalition led by Donald Tusk and which guarantees to finish a significant European headache, Poland.Though Tusk has but to sit down down with different European leaders, main EU establishments have given him a close to red-carpet reception on the eve of the summit. The fee's president, Ursula von der Leyen, declared herself "assured" that, below the duty's management, "quite a few factors of settlement" can be achieved on varied points to which Warsaw now has objections.Tusk, who additionally met the president of the European Parliament, Roberta Metzola, and attended the assembly of the European Folks's Social gathering (EPP) earlier than the summit this Tuesday, assured for his half that his intention is to "rebuild the place". Europe's Poland and "strengthen your complete EU." For the previous President of the European Council (2014-2019), "the election outcomes have clearly demonstrated to all of Europe that democracy, the rule of regulation, freedom of expression, European unity are nonetheless vital to our residents." A smiling von der Leyen could not agree extra. Though the EU's Orbanes and Ficos proceed their very own work.Comply with all worldwide info Fb And Xor between Our weekly publication._ #unity #free #clauses #Hungary #Slovakia Read the full article

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mariacallous · 7 months ago

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The health of democracy inside the EU is being undermined by several blind spots of European political leaders, comprising the EU’s “whiteness”, a subdued European sentiment in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), and evidence that Europe’s youth show signs of being unconvinced by the bloc today, according to a report published Wednesday by the European Council of Foreign relations.

Titled “Welcome to Barbieland: European sentiment in the year of wars and elections”, the ECFR report argues today’s EU resembles Barbieland: “a place prone to regard itself as more perfect than it really is – and harbouring some notable blind spots.”

In a section headed “Beyond ‘western’ Europe”, the report’s authors note that CEE populists seized on the 2015 refugee crisis to argue that their countries were not inferior to the West, a feeling they had laboured under since accession, but were in fact superior “because they had not lost their cultural identities to multiculturalism”, while the 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia proved they were right all along about Vladimir Putin.

“[N]ot only might many people and governments in Central and Eastern Europe feel vindicated, but they may now also claim the right to moral leadership in the EU,” the report says.

Such a perspective helps to explain why relatively few CEE citizens bothered to vote in June’s European Parliament elections; commemorative events held this year by many CEE states for the 20th anniversary of EU membership were low key; and Eurosceptic parties and politicians enjoy high popularity.

The danger from this, the report posits, is that CEE citizens are in danger of drifting even further towards “an ‘ethnic’ understanding of Europeanness”.

As evidence, the report cites the fact only CEE governments have expressed opposition to implementing obligatory relocations that form part of the EU’s new migration pact, while Czechs, Slovenians and Bulgarians are among the EU societies most likely to nominate immigration as one of the top two most important issues facing the EU.

While on the surface public opinion polls show positive attitudes towards Europe remain relatively stable and strong in most countries of CEE, there has been a marked re-evaluation of regional attitudes toward the EU over the past few years to the point where a plurality of over 30 per cent in Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Croatia, Latvia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, or even an absolute majority in Slovenia, look on the EU with “distrust”.

The report also identifies a broader pattern under which young European voters, despite being less likely to vote than the rest of the population, are nonetheless being drawn towards non-mainstream alternatives, not only the radical right but also far-left parties.

“If voting habits and preferences are shaped early on in life, as research in political science and psychology suggests, then young people’s weak mobilisation and tendency to snub mainstream offers could, over the years, have a growing electoral and political impact,” it warns.

In conclusion, the report says the EU’s three blind spots contain a warning for the European project: “the risk of the bloc drifting towards an ‘ethnic’ rather than ‘civic’ understanding of Europeanness.”

As such, pro-Europeans need to urgently acknowledge these blind spots, give voice to underrepresented groups, and reverse the drift towards an ‘ethnic’ conception of Europeanness by reconstructing a ‘civic’ offer that upholds the foundational values of the EU.

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blockgeni · 2 years ago

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A recording was uploaded to Facebook just two days before the elections in Slovakia. Two voices could be heard on it: Monika Tódová from the daily newspaper Dennk N and Michal imeka, the purported leader of the liberal Progressive Slovakia party. They appeared to be planning to buy votes from the nation's marginalized Roma minority in order to rig the election. Imeka and Dennk N slammed the tape as false right away. The audio appeared to have been artificially intelligently altered, according to the fact-checking division of the news agency AFP. However, the audio was published during a 48-hour embargo before votes opened, during which time politicians and media organizations are expected to keep quiet. That meant that the post was difficult to widely refute under Slovakia's election laws. Additionally, because the post was audio, it took advantage of a gap in Meta's manipulated-media policy, which states that only videos that have been altered to make someone say something they never said are prohibited. There was a close contest for the nomination between the two front-runners, who had different plans for Slovakia. It was revealed on Sunday that SMER, which ran a campaign to end military support for its neighbor, Ukraine, defeated Progressive Slovakia, a pro-NATO party. Slovakia's election, according to the EU's digital director Vra Jourová, will serve as a test of how susceptible European elections are to the "multimillion-euro weapon of mass manipulation" employed by Moscow to intervene in elections. Now that it has occurred, nations all over the world will be examining what happened in Slovakia for hints about the difficulties they may have in the future. In two weeks, voters in the nearby country of Poland, which a recent EU study revealed was particularly vulnerable to becoming the target of disinformation, will cast their ballots. Elections are scheduled to take place in the US, the EU, the UK, and India the next year. The fact-checkers in Slovakia who are fighting back against false information spread on social media claim that their experience demonstrates that AI is already sufficiently advanced to sabotage elections while they are unable to stop it. According to Veronika Hincová Frankovská, project manager at the fact-checking company Demagog, we are not as prepared as we ought to be. Throughout the election, Hincová Frankovská's staff put in a lot of overtime, splitting their time between fact-checking statements made during TV debates and keeping an eye on social media sites. Demagog collaborates with Meta as a fact-checking partner, which entails that it writes fact-check labels for alleged misinformation that is believed to be disseminating on websites like Facebook. To their work, AI has brought a new, difficult dimension. A recording of imeka proposing to double the price of beer if he won the election was gaining popularity, Meta informed the Demagog team three days before the election. The footage was referred to as phoney by Imeka. According to Hincová Frankovská, fact-checking cannot, of course, be limited to what politicians say. It was difficult to demonstrate that the audio was altered. Though her team had heard about AI-generated posts, Hincová Frankovská and her colleagues had never had to fact-check one. They tracked the recording's origins and learned that it was first posted on an unidentified Instagram account. They started calling specialists and asked them if they thought the recording was likely to be faked or altered. They eventually tested an AI voice classifier developed by the American business Eleven Labs. They were prepared to express their suspicions about the recording's alteration after a short while. When readers come across the post, they may still see their label on the Slovak-language version of Facebook, which reads: "Independent fact-checkers say that the photo or image has been edited in a way that could mislead people." The Facebook user then has the option of deciding if they wish to view the video.

The fact-check label and the beer and vote-rigging audios are still available on Facebook. According to Ben Walter, a representative for Meta, when information is fact-checked, they label it and de-rank it in feed so fewer users see it. This is what happened with both of these situations. No matter if a piece of content was made by a person or an AI, it must adhere to the Community Standards, and an action must be taken against it. Following the introduction of the EU's digital services legislation in August, this election was one of the first crucial elections to occur. The legislation, which was created to improve online human rights protection, established new regulations that were meant to compel platforms to be more aggressive and transparent in their attempts to filter misinformation. Richard Kuchta, an analyst at Reset, a research organization that focuses on how technology affects democracy, claims that Slovakia served as a test case to determine what works and where some modifications are required. According to him, the new regulation increased the pressure on platforms to improve their capabilities for fact-checking or content monitoring. For the Slovak election, Meta reportedly added extra fact-checkers; nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether this was sufficient. Kuchta observed the far-right group Republika upload two additional videos on social media that included AI audio impersonations in addition to the two deepfake audio recordings. One pretended to be Michal Imeka, while the other was Zuzana Aputova, the president. The voices in these audios have been identified as false, and it has been said that any resemblance to real people is coincidental. According to Kutcha, this phrase, which he suspected was an attempt to deceive viewers, did not flash until 15 seconds into the 20-second video. In Poland, there was keen interest in the Slovakian election. As the president of the Polish fact-checking organization Pravda Association, Jakub Li affirms, "AI-generated disinformation is something we are obviously very afraid of because it's very hard to react to it fast." Li claims that because voice cloning is so challenging to spot, he is especially concerned about the Slovakian pattern of disinformation being packaged as audio recordings as opposed to videos or images. Similar to Hincová Frankovská in Slovakia, Li similarly lacks the resources to confidently assist him in determining what has been artificially made or altered. He claims that the tools at your disposal allow you to calculate your chance. But a black box issue plagues these tools. He doesn't know how they evaluate whether a post is likely to be fraudulent. How he is expected to communicate this information to his audience if he has a tool that magically tells him this is 87% AI generated? he asks. In Poland, li claims that there hasn't been much AI-generated content in circulation. However, some people are utilizing the possibility of AI generation to discredit legitimate sources. Polish voters will decide in two weeks whether or not the conservative Law and Justice party should be allowed to serve a historic third term in office. This past weekend, a sizable crowd gathered in Warsaw to show their support for the opposition. According to the opposition-run city council, the number peaked at 1 million people. However, individuals on X, formerly known as Twitter, claimed that videos of the march had been artificial intelligence (AI) enhanced to make the crowd appear larger. Li thinks it's simple to cross-reference many sources to verify the accuracy of this kind of content. It would be far more difficult if, as happened in Slovakia, AI-generated audio recordings started spreading in Poland in the final hours before the vote. He claims that as a fact-checking organization, they don't have a clear strategy for handling it. Therefore, it will hurt if something similar occurs. Source link

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shahananasrin-blog · 2 years ago

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[ad_1] BRATISLAVA, Slovakia -- A populist former prime minister and his leftist party won parliamentary elections in Slovakia, staging a political comeback after campaigning on a pro-Russian and anti-American message, according to almost complete results.Former Prime Minister Robert Fico and the leftist Smer, or Direction, party led with 22.9%, the Slovak Statistics Office said early Sunday after completing the count of 99.98% of the votes from some 6,000 polling stations. The election Saturday was a test for the small eastern European country’s support for neighboring Ukraine in its war with Russia, and the win by Fico could strain a fragile unity in the European Union and NATO.Fico, 59, vowed to withdraw Slovakia’s military support for Ukraine in Russia’s war if his attempt to return to power succeeded.The country of 5.5 million people created in 1993 following the breakup of Czechoslovakia has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine since Russia invaded last February, donating arms and opening the borders for refugees fleeing the war.With no party winning a majority of seats, a coalition government will need to be formed. The president traditionally asks an election’s winner to try to form a government, so Fico is likely to become prime minister again. He served as prime minister in 2006-2010 and again in 2012-2018.A liberal, pro-West newcomer, the Progressive Slovakia party, was a distant second, with 18% of the votes.Its leader Michal Simecka, who is deputy president of the European Parliament, said his party respected the result. "But it's bad news for Slovakia," he said. “And it would be even worse if Robert Fico manages to create a government.” He said he'd like try and form a governing coalition if Fico fails.The left-wing Hlas (Voice) party, led by Fico’s former deputy in Smer, Peter Pellegrini, came in third with 14.7%. Pellegrini parted ways with Fico after the scandal-tainted Smer lost the previous election in 2020, but their possible reunion would boost Fico’s chances to form a government.Pellegrini replaced Fico as prime minister after he was forced to resign by major anti-government street protests following the 2018 killing of journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancee.Pellegrini congratulated Fico on his victory but said that two former prime ministers in one government might not work well.“It’s not ideal but that doesn’t mean such a coalition can’t be created,” he said.Another potential coalition partner, the ultranationalist Slovak National Party, a clear pro-Russian group, received 5.6%.Those three parties would have a parliamentary majority if they joined forces in a coalition government.Fico opposes EU sanctions on Russia, questions whether Ukraine can force out the invading Russian troops and wants to block Ukraine from joining NATO. He proposes that instead of sending arms to Kyiv, the EU and the U.S. should use their influence to force Russia and Ukraine to strike a compromise peace deal. Fico's critics worry that his return to power could lead Slovakia to abandon its course in other ways, following the path of Hungary under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and to a lesser extent of Poland under the Law and Justice party.Hungary has been sanctioned by the EU for alleged rule-of-law violations and corruption, while EU institutions say Poland has been on a slippery slope away from the EU’s rule-of-law principles. Fico has threatened to dismiss investigators from the National Criminal Agency and the special prosecutor who deals with the most serious crimes and corruption.Hungary also has — uniquely among EU countries — maintained close relations with Moscow and argued against supplying arms to Ukraine or providing it with economic assistance.Fico repeats Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unsupported claim that the Ukrainian government runs a Nazi state from which ethnic Russians in the country’s east needed protection. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is Jewish and lost relatives in the Holocaust.Known for foul-mouthed tirades against journalists, Fico also campaigned against immigration and LGBTQ+ rights.The populist Ordinary People group, the conservative Christian Democrats and the pro-business Freedom and Solidarity also won seats in parliament. [ad_2]

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