#poor evan got mauled by a bear

[beausprouts]

Drew the whole fambily for my western au… bro really had a lot of kids for someone who didn’t even want them like what’s his deal

[kidfromsurrey-blog]

NFL Week 3

Takes on this week's games, including my thoughts on players and game lines.

LAR (-2.5) @ SF 

- Sean McVay has this offense looking miles ahead of what they looked like last year. Todd Gurley has been more involved in the passing game which has helped his poor run game efficiency, I think he will have another solid game, Chris Carson just went for almost 100yds on 20 carries. Kyle Shannahan has rejuvenated and worked wonders on this run game, and Carlos Hyde has been a man reborn. They kept it extremely close with Seattle and I see it being close against the Rams too, but I think the Rams take it.

BAL (-3.5) @ JAX

- The Ravens defense has looked like the real deal. I know they played the Bengals and Browns, 2 suspect offenses, but they looked stout. When Jaguars offense has to put the ball in the air I don’t like their chances... Blake Bortles is terrible. Javorius Allen is a safe play, he is playing a lot of snaps and getting used in both the passing and running game. If you have Leonard Fournette you are playing him, but I wouldn’t feel good about it. I expect the Ravens to take this game by stacking the box to limit Fournette and making Bortles beat them which I doubt happens.

ATL (-3.0) @ DET

- This matchup has me very interested. You have both teams coming in at 2-0, one being a preseason Super Bowl Contender, and one not being taken very seriously. The Big 3 from Atlanta all should be safe bets to produce, but I like Austin Hooper in this matchup a lot if you have to stream a TE in fantasy. Stafford looked very good on Monday against the Giants and now he faces the Falcons D who will be missing Vic Beasley (their best player). I think he has another big game and that Golden Tate will be the main beneficiary of it. I think the Lions surprise a lot of people and take this game at home.

CLE (-1.5) @ IND

- I can’t remember the last time the Browns were a road favorite but that is what the Colts roster is without Andrew Luck. The Colts have been surprisingly good vs the run this year but that might be because everyone is exposing their pass D. Crowell is more of a floor play, Kizer should bounce back from his tough matchup vs the Ravens. I wouldn't feel good playing anyone on the Colts roster except Jack Doyle, but again I’d avoid the entire offense without luck. That being said... I like the colts here. This is going to be the 3rd week without Luck, they looked a lot better last week vs Arizona, and they are at home.

DEN (-3.0) @ BUF

- Denver absolutely destroyed my Cowboys last week. That defense is as good as its ever been and look for them to expose this struggling Bills O. Siemian has been on fire, and while I don’t think it will continue for the whole year I think he can keep it up for one more week. I like CJ Anderson again this week, and I prefer Sanders to DT. I expect the BIlls to come out and try to run the ball to try and bleed the clock and keep it close, meaning Mccoy might be the only player you can play. I like Denver to take it, I don’t think the Bills score more than 13 points against this D.

HOU (+13.5) @ NE

- The line is heavily in the Pats favor and for good reason, Belichick just doesn’t lose to rookie Qb’s very often. Lamar Miller is splitting time with Foreman, Watson doesn’t look very good and will be in tough this week, Hopkins is getting peppered with targets and is the only player I’d feel decent about playing. I know the Texans have an elite D but Tom Brady is a start against anyone, Gilislee is looking good for a TD any time inside the 5 and the Pats may be running out the clock early this game. Gronk, Hogan, Amendola all look like decent options given their health status, Cooks might be the only healthy WR on the team, start him. 13.5 is a lot to cover, but I’ll take the Pats at home against the rookie QB.

MIA (-6.5) @ NYJ

- The Jets don’t look very good, as expected. Miami looked like a run-heavy team in the one game we’ve seen, Ajayi is going to have another big game, and Landry should eat in the short passing game. Kearse is perhaps the only player on the Jets to put up decent stats just because he will get targets. The Dolphins do not have an elite D so this game could be closer than people expect. They want to run A LOT, and that means clock will disappear quick, keeping the game low scoring. I think the Dolphins win, but Jets cover.

NO (+5.5) @ CAR

- The Saints defense is terrible, what else is new. Start Cam Newton, Kelvin Benjamin is always a boom or bust type WR but Cam has to throw to someone. I think this is the game we see McCaffery have a big stat line too. Brees has never been a great road Qb, but this is a warm-weather game, and I think he will be fine. Ingram is the RB I’d want out of the Saints backfield. This is the first real test for this Panthers D, and the Saints can’t afford to go 0-3, I think they come out playing fast and pull off the upset in a tight divisional game. 

NYG (+6.0) @ PHI

- After seeing this Giants team the last two weeks I have been so happy as a Cowboys fan. The offense is garbage without a healthy OBJ. Eli looks washed, there is no run game, and that Oline... With all that, I didn’t think they’d be +6 in this divisional game. Carson Wentz has looked good but also has thrown a lot of risky balls. if Janoris Jenkins plays and this D is healthy I think they get 2 INT’s. The Philly Dline will eat up this Giants O if Odell isn’t his other-worldly self.  I think this game will be low scoring and a lot closer than other people expect. Giants to cover.

PIT (-7.0) @ CHI

- Pit has looked good, the Bears have not. People saw them get smoked by the Bucs but forget they were a Jordan Howard dropped pass away from beating the Falcons at home. Start Antonio if you have him, but I wouldn't expect a huge stat line. Bell will have a big game, he will get his 1st Td of the year. Sometime soon we will see Trubisky because Glennon does not look like a starting NFL Qb, Jordan Howard is banged up but he already was splitting snaps with Tarik Cohen, who I think has another decent day. Both teams will want to run the ball and I think that helps the Bears keep it close. Ben has had issues on the road and I think that trend continues, with the Bears covering.

TB @ MIN

- There is no line for this game yet due to the questions around Sam Bradford. Him playing changes this whole offense, so I don’t know how to feel about this game yet. Mike Evans will draw Rhodes all game long, if you have another decent option it wouldn’t be crazy to not start him. 

SEA (+2.5) @ TEN

- A lot of people are writing off the hawks, I’m not. This team always starts slow, they lost to the lowly Rams last year (9-6). I don’t expect them to be a whole lot better than they were last week, but they have kept games close and kept them competitive. The Titans most likely won’t have Demarco or rookie Corey Davis, and I am a fan of Mariota, but Earl Thomas plays like no other safety in the league. Derrick Henry would be a must-start if Murray doesn’t play, as the Hawks have been a bit suspect against the run so far. Chris Carson looks like the guy in that run game, and Doug Baldwin is Wilson’s go-to WR.  The Titans O should reel back from the 37pts they scored last week against this top tier D. I like the Hawks to win.

CIN (+8.5) @ GB

- Alright so Aaron Rodgers is the best Qb in the league, and Andy Dalton... is not. That Bengals offense has looked horrid, the only player I would start is AJ Green. The Packers secondary is not good and I think the Bengals trail a lot in this game = passing attempts. The Bengals pass D is good but they also haven’t played an offense of GB’s caliber so far. Jordy Nelson looks like he will play and TyMont should have another good week. I don’t see the Bengals scoring at a pace near what the Packers are capable of scoring at, Packers cover.

KC (-3.0) @ LAC

- Kareen Hunt looks unreal and I think he keeps it up. Andy Reid has a good track record RB’s (Westbrook, Mccoy, Charles) and Hunt was a hand-picked player. I think he will be in a lot of top-5 RB rankings for the rest of the year. Tyreek Hill looks like a more polished WR than we saw last year and Kelce is a start every week. The Chargers seem to always seem to find a way to lose. Rivers will be in tough this week as Marcus Peters will take away one-half of the field and with the run game not being very efficient, the KC pass rush will be flying. Keenan Allen looks healthy and is playing well, he should get moved around a lot and avoid Peters quite a bit. Melvin Gordon looks like the same player as last year, lots of touches, not very efficient, but consistent in fantasy. If Verrett doesn't play in this matchup I like the Chiefs, even more, Gimme KC.

OAK (-3.0) @ WAS

- Washington has not looked as good as the team last year. Maybe that’s due to Sean McVay leaving but this offense gives me pause. If Jordan Reed plays I think he is the best pass catcher in that offense this week. The run game is up in the air with the Rob Kelly injury. Oakland struggled a little bit with the Jets and that could carry over on the road vs Washington. Carr is a good Qb, I’m not as enamored with him as most people, but I think he will have another solid outing. This Washington team struggled against Todd Gurley last week and now face a top end Oline and a young looking Marshawn Lynch. I think Lynch and the duo of Richard & Washington have a solid performance. I’d expect to see Norman play on Cooper but it’ll be worth monitoring who he covers. Under the radar play is Jared Cook, he should expose a weak LB core. I think this game is close, not confident but I think the Raiders take it by 4.

DAL (-3.0) @ ARZ 

- The Cowboys got beat from start to finish by the Broncos. On Offense, Defense, Coaching, in every aspect of the game they looked overmatched. Zeke had his worst statistical game ever as a pro and I do not think that will happen again. That Oline will look to maul everyone and Zeke should bounce back after being scrutinized for “quitting on the team”. There is always that Angry Brady narrative, I like this week as an Angry Zeke week. Witten looks like Dak’s safety blanket on third down and in the red zone, that could be big this week because.... Dez gets Patrick Peterson. Dez has struggled against Elite CB’s and in my opinion, Patrick Peterson is the toughest corner Dez will have to go up against all year. He is big, super fast, has long arms, and plays physical. He is a physical corner that I don’t see getting bullied by Dez. Dak needs to bounce back from the poor showing last week and I think he will. Carson Palmer needs a clean pocket and if he gets it he will dissect this defense. The issue is I’m not sure he will consistently get it. Demarcus Lawrence is tied for the NFL lead in sacks right now and I see him being disruptive again. JJ Nelson could have a big game, again, against this shaky secondary. Fitz working out of the slot against rookie Jourdan Lewis will be interesting. I like Lewis but he has missed almost all of training camp and just saw his first action last week. Don’t expect too much from the run game but I prefer Chris Johnson. I think Dallas takes this 24-20 in a back and forth game, where the winner is decided late.

Side note - If you haven’t yet watched a CBS game where Tony Romo is commentating, I highly recommend you tune in this weekend. As a huge Romo fan I was hoping he’d do well as a broadcaster, but I had no idea he would be this good. He gives insight to a degree nobody else has even come close (youtube him predicting plays in TENvsOAK, or breaking down why Bill Belichick ran a certain defensive play). He has been getting a lot of love by NFL watchers on twitter and I expect it to continue.