#macro economics notes

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[kimblestudies]

rainy days spent thinking about markets. my teacher is horrible but i am too built different for it to matter.

🔈california uber alles, dead kennedys

[dailyanarchistposts]

J.4.4 What is the “economic structural crisis”?

There is an ongoing structural crisis in the global capitalist economy. Compared to the post-war “Golden Age” of 1950 to 1973, the period from 1974 has seen a continual worsening in economic performance in the West and for Japan. For example, growth is lower, unemployment is far higher, labour productivity lower as is investment. Average rates of unemployment in the major industrialised countries have risen sharply since 1973, especially after 1979. Unemployment “in the advanced capitalist countries … increased by 56 per cent between 1973 and 1980 (from an average 3.4 per cent to 5.3 per cent of the labour force) and by another 50 per cent since then (from 5.3 per cent of the labour force in 1980 to 8.0 per cent in 1994).” Job insecurity has increased with, for example, the USA, having the worse job insecurity since the depression of the 1930s. [Takis Fotopoulos, Towards and Inclusive Democracy, p. 35 and p. 141] In addition, the world economy have become far less stable with regular financial crises sweeping the world of de-regulated capitalism every few years or so.

This crisis is not confined to the economy. It extends into the ecological and the social, with the quality of life and well-being decreasing as GDP grows (as we noted in section C.10, economic factors cannot, and do not, indicate human happiness). However, here we discuss economic factors. This does not imply that the social and ecological crises are unimportant or are reducible to the economy. Far from it. We concentrate on the economic factor simply because this is the factor usually stressed by the establishment and it is useful to indicate the divergence of reality and hype we are currently being subjected to.

Ironically enough, as Marxist Robert Brenner points out, “as the neo-classical medicine has been administered in even stronger doses, the economy has performed steadily less well. The 1970s were worse than the 1960s, the 1980s worse than the 1970s, and the 1990s have been worse than the 1980s.” [“The Economics of Global Turbulence”, New Left Review, no. 229, p. 236] This is ironic because during the crisis of Keynesianism in the 1970s the right argued that too much equality and democracy harmed the economy, and so us all worse-of in the long run (due to lower growth, sluggish investment and so on). However, after decades of pro-capitalist governments, rising inequality, increased freedom for capital and its owners and managers, the weakening of trade unions and so on, economic growth has become worse!

If we look at the USA in the 1990s (usually presented as an economy that “got it right”) we find that the “cyclical upturn of the 1990s has, in terms of the main macro-economic indicators of growth — output, investment, productivity, and real compensation — has been even less dynamic than its relatively weak predecessors of the 1980s and the 1970s (not to mention those of the 1950s and 1960s).” [Brenner, Op. Cit., p. 5] Of course, the economy is presented as a success — inequality is growing, the rich are getting richer and wealth is concentrating into fewer and fewer hands and so for the rich and finance capital, it can be considered a “Golden Age” and so is presented as such by the media. As economist Paul Krugman summarises, in America while the bulk of the population are working longer and harder to make ends meet “the really big gains went to the really, really rich.” In fact, “only the top 1 percent has done better since the 1970s than it did in the generation after World War II. Once you get way up the scale, however, the gains have been spectacular — the top tenth of a percent saw its income rise fivefold, and the top .01 percent of American is seven times richer than they were in 1973.” Significantly, the top 0.1% of Americans, a class with a minimum income of about $1.3 million and an average of about $3.5 million, receives more than 7 percent of all income — up from just 2.2 percent in 1979.” [The Conscience of a Liberal, p. 129 and p. 259]

So it is for this reason that it may be wrong to term this slow rot a “crisis” as it is hardly one for the ruling elite as their share in social wealth, power and income has steadily increased over this period. However, for the majority it is undoubtedly a crisis (the term “silent depression” has been accurately used to describe this). Unsurprisingly, when the chickens came home to roost under the Bush Junta and the elite faced economic collapse, the state bailed them out.

The only countries which saw substantial and dynamic growth after 1973 where those which used state intervention to violate the eternal “laws” of neo-classical economics, namely the South East Asian countries (in this they followed the example of Japan which had used state intervention to grow at massive rates after the war). Of course, before the economic crisis of 1997, capitalist ideologues argued that these countries were classic examples of “free market” economies. Right-wing icon F.A von Hayek asserted that “South Korea and other newcomers” had “discovered the benefits of free markets.” [1980s Unemployment and the Unions, p. 113] In 1995, the Heritage Foundation (a right-wing think-tank) released its index of economic freedom. Four of the top seven countries were Asian, including Japan and Taiwan. All the Asian countries struggling just a few years later qualified as “free.” Yet, as mentioned in section C.10.1, such claims were manifestly false: “it was not laissez-faire policies that induced their spectacular growth. As a number of studies have shown, the expansion of the Asian Tigers was based on massive state intervention that boosted their export sectors, by public policies involving not only heavy protectionism but even deliberate distortion of market prices to stimulate investment and trade.” [Fotopoulos, Op. Cit., p. 115] Moreover, for a long period these countries also banned unions and protest, but then for the right “free markets” always seem compatible with lack of freedom for workers to organise.

Needless to say, after the crisis of the late 1990s, the free-marketeers discovered the statism that had always been there and danced happily on the grave of what used to be called “the Asian miracle”. It was perverse to see the supporters of “free-market” capitalism concluding that history was rendering its verdict on the Asian model of capitalism while placing into the Memory Hole the awkward fact that until the crisis they themselves had taken great pains to deny that such a model existed! Such hypocrisy is not only truly sickening, it also undermines their own case for the wonders of “the market.” For until the crisis appeared, the world’s investors — which is to say “the market” — saw nothing but golden opportunities ahead for these “free” economies. They showed their faith by shoving billions into Asian equity markets, while foreign banks contentedly handed out billions in loans. If Asia’s problems were systemic and the result of these countries’ statist policies, then investors’ failure to recognise this earlier is a blow against the market, not for it.

So, as can be seen, the global economy has been marked by an increasing stagnation, the slowing down of growth, weak (and jobless) recoveries, speculative bubbles driving what growth there is and increasing financial instability producing regular and deepening crisis. This is despite (or, more likely, because of) the free market reforms imposed and the deregulation of finance capital (we say “because of” simply because neo-classical economics argue that pro-market reforms would increase growth and improve the economy, but as we noted in section C.1 such economics has little basis in reality and so their recommendations are hardly going to produce positive results). Of course as the ruling class have been doing well this underlying slowdown has been ignored and obviously claims of crisis are only raised when economic distress reach the elite.

Crisis (particularly financial crisis) has become increasingly visible, reflecting the underlying weakness of the global economy (rising inequality, lack of investment in producing real goods in favour of speculation in finance, etc.). This underlying weakness has been hidden by the speculator performance of the world’s stock markets, which, ironically enough, has helped create that weakness to begin with! As one expert on Wall Street argues, “Bond markets … hate economic strength … Stocks generally behave badly just as the real economy is at its strongest … Stocks thrive on a cool economy, and wither in a hot one.” In other words, real economic weakness is reflected in financial strength. Unsurprisingly, then, ”[w]hat might be called the rentier share of the corporate surplus — dividends plus interest as a percentage of pre-tax profits and interest — has risen sharply, from 20–30% in the 1950s to 60% in the 1990s.” [Doug Henwood, Wall Street, p. 124 and p. 73]

This helps explain the stagnation which has afflicted the economies of the west. The rich have been placing more of their ever-expanding wealth in stocks, allowing this market to rise in the face of general economic torpor. Rather than being used for investment, surplus is being funnelled into the finance market (retained earnings in the US have decreased as interest and dividend payments have increased [Brenner, Op. Cit., p. 210]). However, such markets do concentrate wealth very successfully even if “the US financial system performs dismally at its advertised task, that of efficiently directing society’s savings towards their optimal investment pursuits. The system is stupefyingly expensive, gives terrible signals for the allocation of capital, and has surprisingly little to do with real investment.” [Henwood, Op. Cit., p. 3] As most investment comes from internal funds, the rise in the rentiers share of the surplus has meant less investment and so the stagnation of the economy. The weakening economy has increased financial strength, which in turn leads to a weakening in the real economy. A vicious circle, and one reflected in the slowing of economic growth over the last 30 years.

The increasing dominance of finance capital has, in effect, created a market for government policies. As finance capital has become increasingly global in nature governments must secure, protect and expand the field of profit-making for financial capital and transnational corporations, otherwise they will be punished by dis-investment by global markets (i.e. finance capital). These policies have been at the expense of the underlying economy in general, and of the working class in particular:

“Rentier power was directed at labour, both organised and unorganised ranks of wage earners, because it regarded rising wages as a principal threat to the stable order. For obvious reasons, this goal was never stated very clearly, but financial markets understood the centrality of the struggle: protecting the value of their capital required the suppression of labour incomes.” [William Greider, One World, Ready or Not, p. 302]

For example, “the practical effect of finance capital’s hegemony was to lock the advanced economies and their governments in a malignant spiral, restricting them to bad choices. Like bondholders in general, the new governing consensus explicitly assumed that faster economic growth was dangerous — threatening to the stable financial order — so nations were effectively blocked from measures that might reduce permanent unemployment or ameliorate the decline in wages … The reality of slow growth, in turn, drove the governments into their deepening indebtedness, since the disappointing growth inevitably undermined tax revenues while it expanded the public welfare costs. The rentier regime repeatedly instructed governments to reform their spending priorities — that is, withdraw benefits from dependent citizens.” [Greider, Op. Cit., pp. 297–8]

Of course, industrial capital also hates labour, so there is a basis of an alliance between the two sides of capital, even if they do disagree over the specifics of the economic policies implemented. Given that a key aspect of the neo-liberal reforms was the transformation of the labour market from a post-war sellers’ market to a nineteenth century buyers’ market with its related effects on workplace discipline, wage claims and proneness to strike, industrial capital could not but be happy even if its members quibbled over details. Doug Henwood correctly argues that “Liberals and populists often search for potential allies among industrialists, reasoning that even if financial interests suffer in a boom, firms that trade in real, rather than fictitious, products would thrive when growth is strong. In general, industrialists are less sympathetic to these arguments. Employers in any industry like slack in the labour market; it makes for a pliant workforce, one unlikely to make demands or resist speedups.” In addition, “many non-financial corporations have heavy financial interests.” [Op. Cit., p. 123 and p. 135]

Thus the general stagnation afflicting much of the world, a stagnation which regularly develop into open crisis as the needs of finance undermine the real economy which, ultimately, it is dependent upon. The contradiction between short term profits and long term survival inherent in capitalism strikes again.

Crisis, as we have noted above, has appeared in areas previously considered as strong economies and it has been spreading. An important aspect of this crisis is the tendency for productive capacity to outstrip effective demand, which arises in large part from the imbalance between capitalists’ need for a high rate of profit and their simultaneous need to ensure that workers have enough wealth and income so that they can keep buying the products on which those profits depend. Inequality has been increasing particularly in neo-liberal countries like the UK and USA, which means that the economy faces as realisation crisis (see section C.7), a crisis which was avoided in the short-term by deepening debt for working people (debt levels more than doubled between the 1950s to the 1990s, from 25% to over 60%). In 2007, the chickens came hole to roost with a global credit crunch much worse than the previous finance crises of the neo-liberal era.

Over-investment has been magnified due to the East-Asian Tigers and China which, thanks to their intervention in the market (and repressive regimes against labour), ensured they were a more profitable place to invest than elsewhere. Capital flooded into the area, ensuring a relative over-investment was inevitable. As we argued in section C.7.2, crisis is possible simply due to the lack of information provided by the price mechanism — economic agents can react in such a way that the collective result of individually rational decisions is irrational. Thus the desire to reap profits in the Tiger economies resulted in a squeeze in profits as the aggregate investment decisions resulted in over-investment, and so over-production and falling profits.

In effect, the South East Asian economies suffered from the “fallacy of composition.” When you are the first Asian export-driven economy, you are competing with high-cost Western producers and so your cheap workers, low taxes and lax environmental laws allow you to under-cut your competitors and make profits. However, as more tigers joined into the market, they end up competing against each other and so their profit margins would decrease towards their actual cost price rather than that of Western firms. With the decrease in profits, the capital that flowed into the region flowed back out, thus creating a crisis (and proving, incidentally, that free markets are destabilising and do not secure the best of all possible outcomes). Thus, the rentier regime, after weakening the Western economies, helped destabilise the Eastern ones too.

So, in the short-run, many large corporations and financial companies solved their profit problems by expanding production into “underdeveloped” countries so as to take advantage of the cheap labour there (and the state repression which ensured that cheapness) along with weaker environmental laws and lower taxes. Yet gradually they are running out of third-world populations to exploit. For the very process of “development” stimulated by the presence of Transnational Corporations in third-world nations increases competition and so, potentially, over-investment and, even more importantly, produces resistance in the form of unions, rebellions and so on, which tend to exert a downward pressure on the level of exploitation and profits.

This process reflects, in many ways, the rise of finance capital in the 1970s. In the 1950s and 1960s, existing industrialised nations experienced increased competition from Japan and Germany. As these nations re-industrialised, they placed increased pressure on the USA and other nations, reducing the global “degree of monopoly” and forcing them to compete with lower cost producers. In addition, full employment produced increasing resistance on the shop floor and in society as a whole (see section C.7.1), squeezing profits even more. Thus a combination of class struggle and global over-capacity resulted in the 1970s crisis. With the inability of the real economy, especially the manufacturing sector, to provide an adequate return, capital shifted into finance. In effect, it ran away from the success of working people asserting their rights at the point of production and elsewhere. This, combined with increased international competition, ensured the rise of finance capital which in return ensured the current stagnationist tendencies in the economy (tendencies made worse by the rise of the Asian Tiger economies in the 1980s).

From the contradictions between finance capital and the real economy, between capitalists’ need for profit and human needs, between over-capacity and demand, and others, there has emerged what appears to be a long-term trend toward permanent stagnation of the capitalist economy with what growth spurts which do exist being fuelled by speculative bubbles as well as its benefits being monopolised by the few (so refuting the notion of “trickle down” economics). This trend has been apparent for several decades, as evidenced by the continuous upward adjustment of the rate of unemployment officially considered to be “normal” or “acceptable” during those decades, and by other symptoms as well such as falling growth, lower rates of profit and so on.

This stagnation has became even more obvious by the development of deep crisis in many countries at the end of the 2000s. This caused central banks to intervene in order to try and revive the real economies that have suffered under their rentier inspired policies since the 1970s. Such action may just ensure continued stagnation and reflated bubbles rather than a real-up turn. One thing is true, however, and that is the working class will pay the price of any “solution” — unless they organise and get rid of capitalism and the state. Ultimately, capitalism need profits to survive and such profits came from the fact that workers do not have economic liberty. Thus any “solution” within a capitalist framework means the increased oppression and exploitation of working class people.

[waitmyturtles]

Wandee Goodday: I'm caught up and I love this show and here are my thoughts AND! (aka, In Which I Partly Ruminate On Golf Tanwarin's Thematic Overlaps Between Wandee Goodday and The Eclipse)

(Thanks to the homegirls @lurkingshan and @neuroticbookworm for catching me up on @bengiyo's wonderful meta round-up here!)

Through @bengiyo's round-up linked above, I *think* I'm caught up on what was going around the Wandee Goodday fandom last week; I myself, because of LIFE. EVENTS. fell behind two episodes, and only caught up with this generally fabulous show last night, and I wanna bust a couple words on it.

I surprised myself a couple weeks ago by having a touch of Wandee brainrot at week TWO, which is generally absurd, but I'm still stuck on the theme of medical observation and how that theme has permeated this show so far. More on this in a second.

Out of transparency, I also want to note that I'm coming off a close rewatch of Golf Tanwarin's The Eclipse for my Old GMMTV Challenge project, and not just because of LIFE. EVENTS., but also because of some deep thoughtfulness that has surprised and delayed me in my review of The Eclipse, I can't help but recognize that there's some thematic overlap between The Eclipse and Wandee that Golf's getting into -- a coincidence that I'm absolutely loving and screaming internally over.

(As an aside, I've been working forever on my Eclipse piece because I'm struggling with the meaning of having a huge debut branded ship in FirstKhao helming that show, and what that meant for GMMTV in 2022 and its BL future. I'm not feeling that same branded ship pressure here in Wandee, especially as Inn Sarin and Great Sapol were both separately established actors who joined GMMTV for this project, and the future of this ship is unknown at the moment. That's a part of the reason why I love Wandee -- I don't feel fandom pressure about the ship, per se, at this moment, but I might be missing hype on the tag.)

While the stories between The Eclipse and Wandee are clearly different -- the ways in which Golf offers commentary about internal and external homophobia, ESPECIALLY vis à vis macro-level interactions of micro-level humans in systems like boarding schools and hospitals/medical systems, is deeply thrilling for me. I admire Golf as a former politician, Thailand's first transgender member of parliament who was unceremoniously kicked out for economic concerns (and likely their affiliation with the Future Forward/Move Forward parties). As someone who's been around the way with smart politicians, I'm not surprised that this is a space in which Golf lives -- the space in which they explore how homophobia is expressed at macrosystemic and micro-emotional levels.

In The Eclipse, Golf explores:

social pressures to conform to hetero-social standards

the internal destruction that those pressures cause to individuals

how that internal destruction impacts the ways in which young high-school men interact with each other, and develop social and/or romantic bonds, and

how that internal destruction also impacts general social group dynamics, and how individuals police themselves and each other into conforming to the hetero-social standards dictated by the environment around them.

There are many, many issues with The Eclipse, but generally speaking, Golf weaves between the internal and external, the micro and the macro, in that show, cyclically, to depict very messed-up young men fumbling through their experiences of social conformity and love.

As I've been writing my Eclipse piece for my OGMMTVC, I have referred often to @bengiyo's FABULOUS post from the Our Skyy 2 x The Eclipse days, about how some of The Eclipse fandom was concerned for the stability of AkkAyan vis à vis their romance in OS2. As Ben writes, these fictional boys were messed TF up. It was natural, in OS2, to witness their continued fumbles as they still confirmed their love for each other. The conflation for "real" affection between First and Khao aside, this demand for clean-cut romance dominated the fandom discourse at the time of OS2, and it wasn't aligned with what I think Golf's messaging about the emotional states of the boys actually were.

We're certainly NOT THERE (YET) in Wandee Goodday by way of romance. We're squarely in the midst of Wandee's, Yak's, and Ter's very clear emotional and competitive fumbles. We're only at episode 4, and what we've gotten is just a tremendous amount of information about the internal and external struggles these very messed-up dudes have (and to confirm here, we know Ter is Satan/Dr. 666 Devil, we are literally told that, and I'm so thrilled for Podd to finally get the role he deserves, amirite @lurkingshan).

We are seeing similar social conformity pressures from The Eclipse to Wandee by way of the hospital setting -- long a globally misogynistic and highly pressurized environment that humans have played destructively in. Ter being an absolute ROACH with Dee's feelings is so apropos. (Oh, and Ter clearly not being committed to Kwan? That girl's gonna go AWF, I swear.)

We're seeing the same pressure by way of boxer Yak going public with his bisexuality, and taking an ENORRRRRMOUS risk in faking a relationship with Wandee, in front of titchy hospital staff who will likely narc Yak out to the media.

[I think this is a slip of the show, by the way. I don't think Yak is dumb enough to not recognize this risk despite his empathy to Dee, and I really wish the show would spend more time on the risks that Yak takes in showing public affection to Dee at the hospital. I think the show can actually take some time to explore the risk that Yak is taking, because it would simply illuminate the continued themes of homophobia and its ever-presence in the sports AND medical settings that Golf is exploring. (And separately, the meaning of having Yei and Cher helm the boxing gym means so much to me -- literally as a sports fan!)]

@bengiyo's meta round-up also nicely covers the meta out there about Dee and his very conflicted and hypocritical behavior. It's no duh that Dee only has one friend. The guy is a fucking ant. A very cute and sympathetic ant! But he's cute (and hawt), sympathetic, an ant, AND a jerk, someone who is driven to "win," both against Ter and Yak. Dee might be an ant BECAUSE of the impact of what was likely an intense and complicated medical education, as many a former medical resident around the world may relate to! That's a macro-level systemic reference that I wouldn't be surprised Golf would be making intentionally.

Both Wandee and Yak could and should be more accountable to themselves and to each other vis à vis their feelings and the very complicated pressures they both operate under.

They haven't gotten there in their intimacy yet because -- like Akk, Ayan, Kan, and Thua, they're fucking messed-up dudes dealing with homophobia at internal and external emotional levels due to the pressures of their homophobic macrosystemic environments in which they operate!

The social conformity pressures of the worlds in which Dee and Yak live are messing them up so fucking much that they're both acting like bumbling dillholes.

Is it DELIGHTFUL TO WATCH? OMG, YES! I'm obsessed! I LOVE THEM, YER HONOR.

I LOVE WATCHING COMPLICATED HUMAN BEINGS BE COMPLICATED. THIS SHIT IS COMPLICATED!!!!!

Fucking Dee stringing Yak along? YAK GOING ALONG WITH IT? Kickass Taem sees the necklace around Dee's clavicle and KNOWS what Yak's heart is actually doing/saying. Yak may even be "making up" this whole Situation with Taem to jealously win Dee over, maybe?, but we also know Yak actually is attracted to Taem, and so, fuck, THAT'S MESSY AND COMPLICATED, and also, oh so real! Fuck Dee, man! We've ALL BEEN STRUNG ALONG, hello song break, Dee, get it together, you jackass m'fer:

In other words, ha! People act like jerks when their micro- and macro-levels, their internals and externals, are out of sync and whack, and they don't have the emotional toolboxes to deal with it. There is so much mess-mess-MESSY-mess-mess, escalandos, poopy-woopy-shit all over the place in this show, and at least for right now, it's just delightful to watch it happen and unwind (as opposed to The Eclipse, when Akk's repeated stalking of Ayan just got a little tired after episodes 4 and 5, it was like, dude, Akk, if you're saying you don't like him, just stay the fuck away, on GOD. ANYWAY).

Who has the emotional tools to deal with this complicated-ness? Dr. Kao, Drakey-poo, Drizzy!

Dr. Kao, our OBSERVATIONAL asexual BFFFFFFFF, is shown, literally, helping dyads through their issues. He's addressing binaries on binaries -- a couple coming at sex from two different perspectives, and creating compromise between them.

I love, love, love this inclusion of this observational commentary. Kao is depicted at creating communication and compromise against a topic (sex) that he himself has a complicated relationship with. He is shown, professionally, keeping his shit out of the needs of his patients in order to help them with their medical goals.

Kao is practicing, in essence, a transcendence of sorts -- transcending his micro-personal issues with sex in his practice to help his patients achieve at least happiness, if not at least compromise and satisfaction, in their lives.

I appreciated seeing that the client couple in the show wasn't necessarily trying to "win" against each other. They just had different issues about sex that they were working on -- TOGETHER.

The competitive triad of Dee, Yak, and Ter is certainly not there yet. 666 Devil Ter will likely shake up any delicate balance that Dee and Yak MIGHT achieve. But Dee and Yak, a hopeful binary dyad that we are cheering for, are caught in all of their personal and professional competitions themselves, and are nowhere near transcendence at this moment.

The mess, right now, is making sense, within the script. Things can certainly go awry via the script, as my elder friend @bengiyo has warned me regarding Thai BLs these days. But as of right now, I'm finding this mess delightful, because it's VERY real, to me, against a standard of people acting like bumbling, intentional, and unintentional assholes, and living in worlds of emotional complications that are very difficult, in real life, to unwind from by way of macro-social pressures -- except with time, grace, patience, and eventual maturity.

[it-was-funeral-grey]

And away (Al Haitham x F!Reader)

Prequel Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Extra 1 Masterlist

Summary: now that all that's settled, it's time to head back to vimara village. (all hail imaginary kaveh)

Warnings: mentions of medicine, the meat industry and its processes, economics macro and micro, boat travel, awkwardness, denial, internal battles, vulgarities, mild injuries (sprained ankle), carrying, mentions of sanitary pads, ect, spying on friends .

Word count: <4.3k words

Inspired by: Telephone - Waterparks

"I know we only just met, so why do I feel invested?"

Author's note: i had to dig out all my economics knowledge for this lol. i still almost failed econs so just pretend that i make total sense for the sake of the story pls. Also, i may come back and mass re edit this.

Thank you for all the lovely comments for part 3! it really made my day! i'm sorry if this part isnt as good as the rest! I tried

Please give criticism! Also, if i missed any warnings, do tell me so i can add them!

Out of all the issues Al Haitham has to deal with, Port Ormos is the most pressing and the source of many other problems.

No trade means no business. No business means no jobs. No jobs mean no work, which means no income for both Sumeru and the people. And especially since Port Ormos is Sumeru's main port, national income has taken a hard hit. Akademiya economists have been sending him report after report about their concerns about Sumeru's economic forecast. It does not look good.

In addition, no trade means that Sumeru doesn't get new resources anymore. While Sumeru is mostly self-sufficient food-wise, many resources still cannot be obtained locally- or are mostly imported. And since Port Ormos is both Sumeru's largest and main port, lots of imports are not coming in anymore.

For example, there's currently a national shortage of cold medicines, which Sumeru usually imports from Snezhnaya. Particularly during monsoon seasons, cases of colds, dengue fever and the flu increase amongst the population. But Snezhnayan traders and businesses have pulled away from Sumeru after the Akademiya scandal. Bimarstan had gotten so desperate for cold medicine that it had begun asking locals to donate their leftover medicine. To ease the burden on the Bimarstan, Al Haitham had ordered Amurta to help mass manufacture medicines. However, this is only a stopgap measure. He needs to find a way to solve the root cause of the problem.

Furthermore, inflation has been a growing issue. The situation isn't so bad in Sumeru city, as its tiny port is still running- albeit not as smoothly or vibrantly as it used to. But in other parts of Sumeru, it's a whole different story. 

Everything is connected in a way. Just because Sumeru isn't reliant on imports for food doesn't mean food prices are not affected by the lack of other resources. For example, to produce fowl meat, you'll need a few things:

Either machinery (mostly from Fontaine) or workers to slaughter the fowl.

Appropriate packaging to pack the fowl meat.

Transport to carry your produce to marketplaces throughout Sumeru.

In this case, most issues lie with step one. Most farmers in Sumeru had taken to using Fontaine machinery to mass slaughter poultry. It was much cheaper than hiring workers and way more efficient. The only trade-off was that these machines ran on a specific type of oil that only is sold in Fontaine. So, manufacturers would sell the oil alongside it. 

But now, Fontaine traders and businesses are gradually pulling away from Sumeru. That means a lesser supply of oil, which means a decrease in the supply of fowl since machines are not able or cost more to run. A shortage means that prices go up. People buy less or cannot afford fowl at all. Farmers make less money, which prevents them from hiring more workers (or results in them letting go of workers if they don't use machinery) to increase the fowl supply. A case of cost-push inflation, similar to other case studies Al Haitham has read up on.

This is just one example out of many. The inflation and unemployment rate are growing. Adding everything up, including the current political climate, Sumeru is becoming less and less attractive to traders and businesses, causing them to pull away, worsening the Sumeru economy. It's a vicious cycle that Al Haitham needs to break.

If Al Haitham had to list all the issues Port Ormos has caused him, he'd be able to write himself all the way to an economic degree. Which he'll be able to sign off, now that he thinks about it. He's the Acting Grand Sage. He'll announce his own name. Present the degree to himself. Shake his own hand.

But anyway, the main point is that if he's able to revitalise Port Ormos, many other issues will resolve themselves. He had finally had a lucky break that Thursday and was free to head to Port Ormos to speak to the trade supervisors. But then, of course, stuff happened, and he wasn't able to do all that.

Which is why he's heading back to Vimara village again today. He specifically worked through the entire night in his cold office, wet clothes clinging uncomfortably on his body just so he could make time today for this. This time, he's going to make sure he speaks to the trade supervisors and settle this once and for all. He's ready to negotiate to hell and back to ensure the port reopens.

No surprises today, he'll make sure of it.

"Oh! You're heading back to Vimara Village?"

Well. Never mind, then.

The rising heat only hits the moment he walks out of the tavern. 

Treasures Street is empty tonight because of the heavy rain. Shops have closed early- the only exception being the tavern. But even so, Al Haitham feels too exposed. He doesn't feel cold anymore. The heat blooming in his cheeks and all over him makes sure of that.

Al Haitham quickens his pace. There's still a long walk to the Akademiya. The faster he gets there, the more time he'll have to finish whatever he has to do. 

The faster he gets there, the less time he'll have to think about what just happened.

Let's review. 

First of all, he fainted. Presumably right in front or around her house- so that's how she found him. Fine. He can't fault himself for that. He had been running on less than three hours of sleep that week. The cherry on top had been that four-hour trek he had to do on top of that. He was exhausted. The human body has its limits. 

But then he woke up and bawled his eyes out like a baby. In front of her. A total stranger. She pushed a bowl of the best meal he ever had (and his only meal in two days) into his face, and he cried. He cried so much that he passed out. Again. Until the following evening. 

It takes a lot of willpower from Al Haitham to not squat down and cringe in the middle of the street. 

Archons, he's pathetic. 

His cheeks burn, and he instinctively moves a hand to cover his face. The movement is accompanied by a crumpling sound, which reminds him of the snack he was given before he left the tavern. 

Taking cover under Menakeri's Treasure Shop, he removes the neatly bundled wrap from its paper bag. The rain isn't letting up. He couldn't be more drenched, but thankfully, the wrap is still dry- courtesy of the paper bag he took from Lambad's counter.

The wrap is still warm, and he curses when the rainwater on his hand seeps into the napkins. Removing it quickly, he holds the wrap in his hands. 

Wait. What's he going to do with the wrap?

He should throw it away. It's a terrible waste of food, but he can't afford to eat and feel sleepy later. He has to finish everything and then some, so he'll be free to head back to Vimara village tomorrow.

She held out the bundle with trembling hands.

The wrap suddenly feels heavy. Looking around, he spots a rubbish bin just a step away outside the shop.

She had left her warm, comfortable spot just to make sure he had something to eat.

He should really get going. Throw it away. And then leave for the Akademiya. But his feet refuse to move.

"They're worried about you, you know?"

Why don't you worry about yourself instead?

"Oh! You're heading back to Vimara Village?"

You weren't expecting to see the Acting Grand Sage again. Much less on the ferry Cyno had arranged to bring you back to Vimara village. 

If the Acting Grand Sage was surprised, he hid it well. Slowly turning to face you, he coolly leans against the railings of the small, wooden ferry. But the piercing sound of creaking wood jolts him back up almost immediately.

"Yes." he hastily answers, turning around to check on the railing, pushing it back and forth, then squatting down and repeating the action.

A curt answer. What are you supposed to say to that? You can't even hum in agreement or find an opening to make small talk before you politely excuse yourself to take a seat inside. 

The only sound filling the air now is the creaking of wood as he scrutinises the railing. You're not sure what he's checking for- it's just a loose railing, but you admire the dedication nonetheless. A minute passes. 

An alternative course of action is to simply walk towards the seating area without saying anything else. But he's blocking the entrance. Taking a step forward, you shift closer to gauge how much space you have to move through it.

Nope. No way to pass through at all. His large build completely obstructs the entrance. There's no way to pass without saying anything, and you're not sure what you can say that isn't awkward. 

"Uh, excuse me. I'm just going to pass- yeah, oh- you don't need to stand, just- sorry."

Yeah, say that, and proceed to simmer in uncomfortable silence with him in the seating area for the next hour and a half. 

"...You're also heading back to the village?" there's another creak of wood as he shifts it from left to right now.

"Ah! Yes," you reply, eager to stave off the growing awkwardness. "I, uh, live there." 

He stiffens at your answer and brushes a hand over his face. You see his shoulders slacken as he sighs.

Did...you say something wrong?

If you did, he doesn't comment on it. Finally standing up, he's turning around and-

"I'm just going to head in first!" you blurt out, taking the opportunity to rush past him into the seating area.

But of course, just as you finally get into the seating area, the ship suddenly rocks, throwing you off balance and onto the hard floor.

Al Haitham's face is on fire. It must be because of the new soap he used this morning. Kaveh had pestered him for money to buy that brand, and he had finally caved. Yes, this is all Kaveh's fault.

No, he is not blushing. Why would he be? He isn't ill or feverish. Neither is he embarrassed.

It's just the soap. A mild allergic reaction, perhaps. But he isn't allergic to anything. Perhaps he should book an appointment at Bimarstan to confirm that. Allergies are dangerous.

Why can't he turn around?

There's a loud, rhythmic pulsing in his ear, which strangely is in phase with the beating of his heart. Is that his heartbeat he's hearing? Why is it so loud? And so fast? Also, why is his heart beating so hard?

He knows the answer. He just doesn't want to admit it.

Al Haitham is not embarrassed. Why should he be? It matters not what she thinks of him. She isn't causing him any trouble. She isn't someone he needs to work with. If anything, she is just another person now. She doesn't affect him or his life. To think about her is meaningless. It serves no purpose.

He doesn't care about her. She means nothing. She's just another stranger. 

Oh, so this is about her, Kaveh's voice rings in his head. You're too embarrassed to face her! 

Great. Now imaginary Kaveh is here. But, thankfully, logic is Kaveh's worst enemy. 

And Al Haitham has a lot of logic.

Ok then, Kaveh, Al Haitham shifts the railing with more vigour. Let's say I am embarrassed. 

You are!

Then what would I be embarrassed about?

Well, about the whole fainting incident! You made a fool of yourself right in front of a total stranger!

So? I'm only a human being. My body has limits that I'm not ashamed of.

You know that's not what I'm talking about.

Oh? Whatever do you mean?

About the whole crying and-

Nope. Al Haitham immediately cuts his internal debate with imaginary Kaveh short. He is not going to think about that now. But of course, you can never stop racing thoughts. Particularly ones provided by imaginary Kaveh.

Don't wanna think about it?

I've already gone through that with myself yesterday.

And what did you find out? That you-

That it was simply tears of relief, Al Haitham lies. In regards to getting good food and rest. A natural human response.

Ha! Yeah right-

Imaginary Kaveh is interrupted once again by the sound of shifting behind Al Haitham. It must be her. Waiting for him to say something back.

Well? Turn around and talk to her!

Why should I?

Unbelievable! Not even going to thank her for helping you?

He knows he should. He wants to. But his voice isn't working. Plus, he can't even turn to face her.

I wonder why.

It's because I'm inspecting the railing. Boats in Sumeru must pass the Sumeru Maritime Port Authorities' safety check, and one of the basic-

It's just a loose railing, and you know it! You're fiddling with it as an excuse to not-

More shifting behind him. What is she trying to do? A quick glance to his left tells him the answer.

Hey, you idiot fungus. You're blocking the entrance to the seating area!

Shit, Kaveh is right. Imaginary Kaveh, that is.

Stand up and move!

Wait. But wouldn't it be weird to just stand up and move? Without saying anything else? That would imply that Al Haitham was paying attention to her but not speaking back. Wouldn't that be strange? Rude, even?

Oh, worrying about weirding her out? And since when have you ever cared about niceties?

Shit, imaginary Kaveh is right. Again. This isn't like him. At all.

Ugh! If you're not going to move, at least say something! You're making her feel uncomfortable!

Say what?! Why don't you suggest something helpful for once?

I don't know? It's your conversation! Not mine! Just ask something! Anything! Before this whole situation becomes too awkward beyond repair!

In a haste, much to imaginary Kaveh and Al Haitham's absolute horror, Al Haitham's mouth decides to go off on its own and ask the most stupid, brain-dead question.

"...You're also heading back to the village?" 

Oh, Archons.

Al Haitham shifts the railing from left to right. Maybe if he does that enough, by some scientific principle that he has not come across yet, it'll be like a lever, and time would rewind and-

When I said to ask anything, I meant something like "Slept well last night?" or "Were the toiletries I bought for you sufficient?" not whatever you just asked.

"Ah! Yes," she replies. "I, uh, live there." 

Great. Now she thinks you're an idiot, you idiot.

What kind of question is that? The answer is obvious. So obvious, that Al Haitham feels the need to redeem himself. A prickling sensation on his face spreads from his cheeks all the way up to the tips of his ears, and Al Haitham uses a hand to try to rub it away.

Archons, even asking what her name is would have been a better question than that!

Enough yapping! How can I fix this?

Al Haitham can't believe he's asking Kaveh, even if in imaginary form, for help. But desperate times call for desperate measures. And Kaveh-like problems require Kaveh-like solutions.

Well, start off by actually turning around to talk to her! Even imaginary Kaveh is surprised by his request for advice. Ask her what her name is! That sounds like a good way to kick-start a less awkward conversation. And save this whole interaction.

But I don't want a conversation. I-

Do you want her to feel even more uncomfortable than she probably already is?

With a deep sigh, Al Haitham tries to compose himself. Willing away the heat in his face, he stands back up. His knees ache a little, but he ignores the pain as he turns to face her but-

"I'm just going to head in first!"

And there she goes, bolting towards the now unobstructed entrance, leaving Al Haitham alone on the deck, momentarily stunned by her sudden departure.

She's barely two steps into the seating area when the ship rocks. Al Haitham catches his balance with practised elegance, but unfortunately, the same could not be said for her.

With a loud thud, she crashes into the ground as the boat begins to turn.

"Are you alright?" all earlier thoughts disappear from Al Haitham's mind as worry fills the gaps. Rushing over, he kneels at her side, watching her as she turns around with a hiss.

"It's fine." she winces, turning over before extending both legs.

"Your left ankle is starting to swell," Al Haitham mutters, comparing the size of her ankles through the straps of her sandals. "A sprained ankle."

"Well," She shifts to sit upwards. Leaning over, she takes a closer look at her ankle. "It doesn't look as bad as it feels."

"It may soon if we don't take care of it," Al Haitham shifts closer to her ankle. "May I?"

When she nods, he gently removes her footwear. Looking around the seating area, he frowns as he realises the absence of a first aid kit. That means no cold compresses or bandages.

"We'll have to elevate it," Al Haitham mutters. "Let's move closer to the benches."

"Ah, ok," she kicks her right leg inwards she pushes her weight onto it as she tries to stand. "Well-"

The boat wobbles, and she nearly falls again. , Al Haitham catches hold of her arm, steadying her.

"That isn't going to work," Al Haitham states before she could thank him. "Sit back down."

She does so, giving him a questioning look. Gently moving her legs so that her knees are outstretched and bent, he hooks an arm under her knee and uses the other to support her back as he stands.

"Woah!" her arms begin to flail.

"Calm down," Al Haitham moves his face away from a hand that nearly hits him. "Just- put that arm here."

"Where?"

"Shoulder," he huffs as he bounces her to secure his hold around her. "Hold on."

The boat rocks, but the Acting Grand Sage doesn't seem worried about falling. In fact, he walks on as if he's on flat ground. All while carrying you.

He gently places you down on the floor next to the nearest metal bench before kneeling next to you again.

"I'm just going to put your leg up here," he assists your ankle up on the bench. "Leave your ankle like this."

"Thank you," you murmur. "I'm sorry for the trouble."

He sighs, heading back towards the entrance to retrieve your sandals. You can't look at him as he walks back to you.

This is so embarrassing.

It was bad enough that things were already so awkward. Oh, Archons. You've already made a faux pas earlier at the deck. Now with this? He must be furious.

Then, in a move that proceeded to stun you- and honestly scare you a little he sits down.

On the floor.

All the benches around, and he chooses to sit on the floor with you.

"No need to thank me." the Acting Grand Sage releases another sigh as he relaxes his shoulders, leaning on the side of the bench beside yours.

He then pulls out a book from somewhere behind his cape and begins to read.

"Would you…prefer to sit on the bench? I'm sure it's much more comfortable there."

"It's a metal bench. It'll feel just as hard as the floor."

Again, another curt response.

Biting your lip in shame, you feel a heat roll up your cheek.

"Acting Grand Sage, I just want to apologise for-"

"Al Haitham."

"I'm sorry, what?"

"My name," he shuts his book, turning his head to face you now. "It's less of a mouthful compared to that. And you are?"

Name. Yes. You can give that.

You tell him your name, trying your hardest to keep your voice as stable as possible. You really don't want to embarrass yourself further.

He repeats your name with an almost contemplative tone. He said it softly, compared to the surrounding noises of the ship. But it's the only sound that fills your ears.

"You have nothing to apologise for," the Acting Grand Sage- no, Al Haitham says. With yet another sigh, he continues. "It's actually me who has to apologise."

"What do you mean?" you frown. You don't recall him doing anything wrong.

"I," he pauses, placing his book aside as his hand rubs against the back of his neck. "I'm sorry if I've made you feel uncomfortable."

He shifts slightly, fidgeting with the ends of his cape.

"I also have to apologise for getting you into this mess," he goes on. "And for not thanking you for helping me back then."

"There's no need to thank me for that!" you answer. "And there's no need to apologise as well. Everyone has been kind to me. This was all a misunderstanding."

And just like that, the awkwardness is gone. Instead, a soothing silence envelopes the space between the two of you. You finally get the courage to glance at him, and now that you're relaxed, you notice something a little strange about his attire.

He isn't wearing anything different than yesterday. But the cape-

His cape!

"I passed your cape to Cyno when I got to the hostel," you say, voice laced with worry. "Did you get it?"

That cape looked expensive. But more importantly, you don't think you'd be able to show your face to anyone ever again if you lost the Acting Grand Sage's cape.

"I did," you let out a sigh of relief. "Cyno passed it to me yesterday."

"Did you work through the night?" you ask.

"Yes. I managed to finish everything by dawn, so I went back home to rest before heading out again."

"At dawn? So you did work through the night then!" you huff. "You have to take care of yourself! If not, you'll pass out again."

"I was well rested after I fell asleep at your place."

"You did not fall asleep. You passed out!"

"Well, it was rest either way."

"Then, did you at least eat the wrap we gave you?"

He stills. Suddenly, the chatty vibe between the two of you had disappeared.

"I," he breaks the stillness. "I ate a little bit of it. On the way back to the Akademiya."

He looks a little guilty, but you let it go.

"I'll take your word for it."

Another silence fills the air. You wiggle the toes on your left foot. It aches, but not as much as before, thankfully. But it'll still be a pain to deal with on the walk back home.

"Did you rest well last night?" he asks, breaking the silence again.

"I did," you recall, thinking about that room you were given. "Do all Akademiya students live in rooms like that? Everything was provided!"

You had thought a student hostel would have only the bare essentials, like a bed, wardrobe and a desk. But in the room you were led to, everything you could have possibly needed was there. Soaps, room slippers, sanitary pads and tampons, and even snacks!

"…Yes," he stretches his neck. "I'm glad you got a good night's rest."

"You should get one too, you know?" you say, turning to face him. "Your friends are worried about you."

And they really are. To the rest of Sumeru, he may just be a temporary authority figure. But to Kaveh, he's his housemate and closest friend. And to Cyno, he's his rival and fellow comrade.

"I know they are," he shares. "But we all have jobs to do."

He looks up, out of the window, far out into the blue sky. It's a sunny day today.

"We should be back at the village in about an hour's time."

"Well, why don't you go get some rest then? I'll wake you when we arrive."

"Thank you." He gives your ankle one last look, making sure nothing got worse. Leaning his head back onto the side of the metal bench, he closes his eyes.

You pray to the Dendro Archon to make his dreams sweet as you watch sleep take him away.

"Did you get it?"

"I think so?"

"Oh, it's blurry! Let me try!"

"Kaveh, wait! Don't lean on that or-"

For an architect, Kaveh is surprisingly terrible at guessing the relative structural integrity of objects. This is why the boxes Kaveh thought were stable (and then proceeded to lean on) come falling down, much to Cyno's dismay.

Naturally, the shopkeeper was furious about Kaveh destroying a whole batch of new wares. Kaveh had racked up quite the bill (which Cyno feels will end up being paid for by Al Haitham), but-

"But it's all worth it. Look!" he gloats, showing Cyno the printed picture.

"Well, would you look at that? Told you this was a good idea!" Kaveh continues.

Well, Archons be damned.

Cyno isn't one who would usually follow Kaveh's pranks or ploys. But if it's going to keep producing results like this, he may consider calling Tighnari to join in on the fun.

"Told you I would be able to get them on the same boat," Cyno smirks, handing the photo back to Kaveh for safekeeping. "What now?"

"Now, we wait," Kaveh takes one last look at the photo, admiring their handiwork before shutting it together with the kamera inside his briefcase. "And when he comes back, oh, it will be fun."

Little did these two know what they have started.

Join the Taglist!

[every-blessed-minute]

28.02.2024 | Wednesday

2/100 Days of Productivity

Dragged myself kicking and screaming out of a mental health slump

Finally finished filling in all the forms I need to for my ADHD assessment (on Friday!)

Attended every lecture + took notes

Caught up with 2 weeks worth of Economic Decision Making (1 to go!)

1 week worth of Macroeconomics (3 to go!)

1 week worth if Public Economics (3 to go!)

Found out I have an internship for Easter (which is exciting but needs me to really buckle down and study now)

Found out I got a first for my Macro paper last semester :)

[jimxnslight]

Listen here, I need more of that car scene because what do you mean he was staring at her with his hand on her wrist? WHILE SHE’S BASCIALLY ON TOP OF HIM??? WITH HIS DARK STRUCTURED EYEBROWS I LOVE HIS EYEBROWS. That other anon was right because I cannot get that scene out of my head. Jungkook in a suit makes me weak. Jungkook demanding something makes me weaaaak. If oc doesn’t want him I will gladly take him and I won’t poison his expensive whiskey collection. I’ll make sure he sleeps nice and sound without a worry in the world because he deserves all the rest he needs for being such a big alpha male in the mafia industry. Sexy man with a sexy gun.

It’s 2 am and I have a fucking 8 am class. Let me kms cause I dunno why it was such a great idea to sign up for an early class and tell me why it’s almost a full class?? Who is functioning that early and eager to learn about macro economics? Not me I’ll tell you that. It was either 8 am or 5 pm slot and hell no am I staying on campus that late especially once the sun starts setting at 5 pm. I have no clue why I’m blabbing all of this to you but I guess as a fellow uni student you must understand the struggle of trying to pay attention during lectures. Assignments are fine for the most part but when I’m in class I cannot retain any knowledge. I’m too distracted by the guy who sits a row in front of me because he plays Tetris on his laptop and this other girl is always on Amazon adding stuff to her cart but never checking out which I relate cause I’m broke but we can pretend we have money and I’m nosyyyytt I wanna see what she’s pretending to buy. Girlie has a whole shark vacuum, some sort of memory foam couch pillows, and I think these mini cute ghost string lights…oddly specific but her list gets a pass in my book. I wish I could write like you. I would be creating novels during lecture and everybody would think I’m taking the best notes ever. Anywho I’m guessing your bias is jimin, mines is Yoongi and I will defend that man until my last breath. Jungkook is my bias wrecker, that piece of shit is too attractive for no reason. I can’t wait until Hobi comes back and I can’t wait for the next chapter!!! My adhd likes to get a hold of me when it’s deep into the night. So sorry but I’m just tryna tell you I love your writing lol. Hope you got that message

THE ADHD IS SO STRONG IN THIS IM ACTUALLY CRYING 😭😭😭

I mean ur so real for that, like it’s Jeon Jungkook in a suit being commanding and we’re just girls 🎀 But not you trying to steal Jungkook from Y/N, that man is married must I remind you 🤨📸

I actually cannot relate to the lecture thing (sorry lol) bc I’m online and thankfully we don’t have lectures, just modules. But I do remember when I did go on campus for a week I could not for the life of me keep myself awake during lectures (I also decided to be studious and booked the 8AM classes like a fool). But uni is a struggle no matter what, like I JUST did an exam where it just randomly submitted in the middle of me taking it and now I’m waiting for my prof to email me back about the issue while praying that he’s merciful enough not to just fail me immediately 🤠 so yeah, here’s to self-inflicted suffering ✨

Thank you so much! Trust me it’s not as hard as it seems, everything improves with practice. Maybe you can start out with smaller stories and eventually when ur comfortable enough move onto larger ones? Don’t hesitate to ask me if you need any help or tips, I’d be more than happy to help!

[fatehbaz]

[N]ear the Küçükçekmece lake near the Western peripheries of İstanbul. [...] We are waiting to cross a ditch that has been dug [...] [through] an agricultural field that belongs to the İstanbul University over which Kanal İstanbul is planned to pass. Ayşe [...] is crossing back from the field with two plastic bags full of wild mustard she and her friends have collected. The ditch serves both as an obstacle and a reminder of the ever-looming construction efforts. [...] She asks, “Are you taking these people out for a stroll?” (Sen bunları mı dolandırıyorsun), a well-crafted double entendre. “Dolandırmak” literally means to take someone on a stroll, but could also be used to indicate deceit, to “take someone for a ride” the way tour guides, or taxi drivers sometimes do to unsuspecting foreigners. When I laugh and explain that I’m a student she points to a field. “There,” she offers, “this is where the Kanal will pass” (“Buradan Kanal geçecek”).

Kanal İstanbul is a mega dredging project and an accompanying urban transformation plan that promises to open a new waterway between the Sea of Marmara and the Black Sea. As such, it combines the spectacle of a megaproject with the more practical effects of shifting the city’s peripheries. The dredging of such a waterway will prove disastrous for the unique ecology of the Sea of Marmara [...] [and] forests, wallows, and lakes located across the Northwest of İstanbul. This area will be subsumed not only by the Kanal but also the accompanying expansion of the city Westwards with new logistics ports, waterfront housing, roads, and bridges.

Ayşe’s comment “this is where the Kanal will pass” is on the one hand a stock response one might hear from the residents of İstanbul’s Western peripheries. The project was originally launched into public consciousness as a speculative election promise in 2013 and recently became a more concrete plan. Either way, it has long haunted this geography, with the path that the Kanal would take remaining a mystery until 2018. It became the source of intense speculation, rumors and several defrauding schemes. [...] And now that the bridges, roads, water, and electricity infrastructure to sustain such a project are being built, there is some chance the project might come to fruition [...].

---

But this stock response “this is where the Kanal will pass” (“buradan Kanal İstanbul geçecek) also echoes another familiar phrase in Turkish “this is where a road will pass” (“buradan yol geçecek”). The phrase hints at both the promise and the perils of infrastructural development in Turkey (Kostem forthcoming).

Begüm Adalet points out in her book Hotels and Highways (2018), how theories of modernization were actively tested in Turkey through the construction of material infrastructure like highways in the 1950s and 1960s by a team of experts and engineers from the United States and Turkey. Yet this particular locution captures a more diffuse and affective valence to the ideology of modernization and the way it intersects with mega construction projects and the promise of economic growth.

---

Its declarative mode “where a road will pass” ties in macro phenomena such as economic growth and modernization with the promise of personal advancement and financial security or fear of violence and repression. [...] Yet such phrases also present a broader communicative logic that subtends infrastructural development especially in such peripheral spaces that exist on the edges of the city. This communicative logic carries a promissory element that is both familiar and as Appel, Anand and Gupta note, multivalent (2018, 7), at times communicating a threat, at times promising development, at other times offering economic advancement, often shifting between the three and for different subjects.

Yet this communicative structure also resembles a rumor, since the declaration that “a road will pass” or “the Kanal will pass” does not have a subject. Instead, it is often accompanied with the indefinite “so they say” (“yol geçecek diyorlar” or “yol geçecekmiş”). Indeed, this is how I instinctively responded to Ayşe “is that what they say?” (“öyle mi diyorlar?” ). More than a simple locution this communicative logic is reflected in how the state carries out infrastructure development, which takes place under conditions of great secrecy, especially in such peripheral spaces. What is prohibited and allowed, who owns which land, where a construction project might pass, how long it will take is often obscured, true enough for any construction project but doubly so on the peripheries of İstanbul, an area that has witnessed multiple generations of migration and extraction. [...]

---

In her work, on İstanbul’s more urbanized Tarlabaşı district, [...] Alize Arıcan argues (2022) that rumors act as a kind of autonomous and collective archive for the racialized communities of this neighborhood, a site of history-making. Addressing the obvious criticisms of Kanal İstanbul that the project was being launched for the sole purpose of creating waterfront property and hence extracting rent, the Turkish Minister of Transportation Adil Karaismailoğlu recently insisted “Kanal İstanbul is a technical issue, we are talking of a world vision here. This is not a matter of political rumors”. 

And yet rumors seem to constitute the field of struggle over which financialized infrastructural development takes place both in İstanbul’s and especially also in its peripheries. [...] Turkey moves ahead with a contested election shortly after a devastating earthquake that has once again brought attention to the destructive character of a society organized around the imperatives of construction, economic growth and capitalist expansion, all underwritten by state violence. [...] In this environment, what would it mean for rumors to be an archive of political memory, knowledge-making and even resistance for an autonomous social opposition?

---

Text by: Burç Köstem. ‘”A Road Will Pass”: the Communicative Logic of Infrastructure in the Peripheries.’ Heliotrope, Environmental Media Lab at the University of Calgary. 19 April 2023. [Bold emphasis and some paragraph breaks/contractions added by me.]

[desiacadtales]

hello moots, been busy with the first week of second year. sigh. i started with revising the notes i got from the lectures everyday.

First day of revision was all about macro. economics, yesterday was developmental psych day, and today i have been assigned the 7 chapters of Great Expectations for my English class, so im gonna start with that. Also, i really need to make a spaced- repetition timetable for myself real soon !!

Thanks for staying and reading, take care<3

[cindylouwho-2]

Etsy Third Quarter Earnings 2023 - It's the Economy, Not Upper Management's Fault (Apparently)

Slide 12 from Etsy's 3rd Q earnings call, © Etsy; they are definitely going all out to let US buyers know about the Purchase Protection changes.

Etsy's third quarter 2023 didn't show any real sales growth, and upper management is projecting an even weaker holiday season. However, economic issues and geopolitical instability bore the brunt of the blame, along with ecommerce competition that is spending too much money on ads (compared to Etsy, of course). The top brass doesn't think it has made any big mistakes, and surprisingly, didn't announce any new ideas to get things moving again, largely repeating what's been said for the past year or more.

That doesn't mean we didn't learn anything new, though, so let's dive into the aspects that will most interest sellers. In portions where I am reporting on what was said or posted, I will put my personal commentary in square brackets to separate it out.

First, here are the resources that you should read/watch yourself, if you want to know more:

the press release

transcript of the conference call

slides from the conference call

video of the call (click on “Webcast” under “Latest Quarterly Results”)

my summaries of the third quarter 2022, and the second quarter 2023 for comparison

Second, the basic numbers (covering July to September 2023, compared to the same period in 2022):

Sales on Etsy were $2.7 billion, up 1% 

Total sales for all 4 marketplaces (Etsy, Reverb, Depop, Elo7) were $3.0 billion, up 1.2%. [Elo7 was officially sold in mid August, meaning it was only included for half of the quarter]

Etsy’s revenue (including all 4 sites) was $636.3 million, up 7%

Seller service revenue was up 16.2% to $175.4 million, while marketplace revenue was up 3.9% to $460.9 million

Net Income was $87.9 million, up almost $1 billion due to the loss taken on Depop in the third quarter of 2022

Active buyers on Etsy alone stand at 91.6 million, a second consecutive all-time high

Active sellers on Etsy alone are 6.7 million, the third large jump in a row compared to the previous quarter; numbers had been stagnant through the end of 2021 and all of 2022 [Note that “active” means one charge or transaction in the past 12 months; many “active” shops currently have nothing for sale.]

Sales where the buyer and/or the seller was not in the United States were 47%, up from 43% last year, but most Etsy buyers are still in the US

Sales on mobile are now at 68%, up from 67% last year [this includes both the buyer app and mobile browsers]

The Economy, Pricing & the Consumer Appetite for Discounts

As you may have heard, the economy is not great, especially for lower-income households, and that affects certain products more than others. CEO Josh Silverman actually stated "the volatile macro climate is going to make it challenging for us to grow this quarter." Strikingly, both VP of Investor Relations Deb Wasser and CFO Rachel Glaser urged people to buy their holiday gifts on Etsy [which hit me as a bit desperate during an earnings call!]

However, households in US areas that average above $100,000 in yearly income are actually spending more on Etsy, and the top 10% of US households (by income) spent 20% more on Etsy this quarter than last year. Glaser pointed to this as evidence Etsy was doing fine, all things considered, and a better economy would once again lead to more growth. [That's a fair take based on that evidence; Etsy certainly is doing better than some other ecommerce marketplaces right now.] Is there an overarching plan if the economy doesn't improve? Investors weren't let in on any such plans during this call.

Despite all of this, sales were actually up a bit each month of the third quarter, while dropping in October. Glaser stated this matched US ecommerce trends. Non-US countries were up 7% this quarter, including the UK, Germany and France, continuing the trend of bigger international growth.

"In this economy, we are seeing that mass merchants who sell essentials and whose brands stand for low prices and deep discounts are generally gaining e-commerce share broadly at the expense of most others." Hence, as I pointed out last quarter, Etsy is leaning into discounting and stressing affordability to try to drive sales. This includes at least 3 approaches:

offering discounts paid by Etsy, such as the "GET5" coupon and the $10 off of $40 orders promotion. The former drove orders and paid for itself; the latter did not. They will continue to test these types of offers.

promoting sales that sellers already run, such as through links on the home page and through emails. [This would seem to include the lengthy holiday sale that Etsy is pushing, with at least 25% off.]

giving sellers more data on pricing, including when and how to put items on sale. They touted the [mostly useless] pricing tool as part of this plan, since "our sellers don't have pricing departments, giving them insights into things like how best to price each item and how or when to use promotions. So we need to be the ones to provide those insights and be their advocates."

They also talked a lot about the fact regular Etsy prices can be affordable. [It may be difficult to convincingly present that position to prospective buyers. Spinning shopping on Etsy as buying direct from the maker with no "middlemen" is a bit rich, considering Etsy is the middleman, taking an ever-larger cut in the past few years, through fee increases, Offsite Ads charges we didn't have to pay before 2020, and ever-increasing margins on Etsy Ads.]

In short, consumers are very price conscious right now, and Etsy is aiming to provide them with what they want.

Search - Branching The Biggest and Most Generic Queries

As they have been discussing for a few years now, one of Etsy's biggest goals for search is to better narrow down large searches, which currently produce an overwhelming number of results [a fact not helped by the continuing growth in seller numbers and Etsy adding items to results that don't have the search terms anywhere.]

They are now happy with the relevance of large searches - "[w]e've made a ton of progress on relevance" - [even though smaller searches can be quite poor, as I discussed last quarter], so they aren't going to focus on that as much going forward. Instead, they are finally testing better ways to offer multiple branches from large searches, or "open-ended head query items" [head searches are the opposite of long tail searches, so this is only being done in a small percentage of the total unique queries overall].

Here is the example given in the call, from a test ran recently:

Slide 6 from Etsy's 3rd Q earnings call, © Etsy; shows a test on breaking down a generic search into more specific ones.

This version had multiple rows of top items in specific narrower searches, before the full search results appeared further down the page, which led to a lot of scrolling. However, I am not seeing that version of the test any more when I check. I am seeing this one instead:

Search for "tree" on Etsy, November 3, 2023.

Note that the normal search results are much higher up the page with this one, plus you can see the 4 different options to narrow the results down without having to scroll. While the 4 sub-topics look like they might be categories, clicking on them simply leads to a search using all of the terms, i.e., a search for "tree home decor" instead of a search for "tree" filtered to the Home Decor category.

Note that Etsy plans that these options will ideally include personalization and contextualization, and are also likely to feature more "quality" items [which so far seems to mean items that have the Etsy's Pick badge in other areas, even though that hasn't happened in this type of test, or at least not that I have seen up until now].

Other changes in search mentioned include "utilizing ML [machine learning] models designed to determine the visual appeal of items and incorporating that information into our search algorithms." [It's hard to say how far they have gotten in testing that versus using it across the site; often these types of musings during calls turn out to be works in progress instead of live algorithm factors. I am trying to formulate a few tests on this, though, so stay tuned!]

Enforcing Etsy Policies To Entice More Shoppers

Etsy is finally aware of the negative image it has in some circles, and is making a big deal out of how it is now enforcing the rules and removing more handmade violations. "Handmade policy takedowns are up over 120% for the third quarter" sounds great [but they didn't mention that the overwhelming majority of their takedowns - roughly 95% - are wrong, and that innocent sellers' businesses are damaged when this happens.]

Because the job of cleaning up handmade violations is so overwhelming to program bots for, they are now approaching it by trying to deactivate the most visible items first, and claim that "we've nearly cut in half the percentage of visits where a buyer comes across a violating listing." [This explains the glut of long-time sellers complaining that their best sellers have been deactivated for handmade violations. Etsy is going for the items with good quality scores first, and as I have noted, they do a poor job of distinguishing real violations from legitimate listings. Aiming to remove non-handmade items from the biggest searches etc. first is a good idea, but you would need competent programing and quick human review to do this fairly and effectively, and Etsy has neither. By the way, despite promising in late September to review all handmade bot flags within 48 hours or reinstate them, and to deindex listings from search rather than deactivate them entirely, they are still not doing that.]

One of the investment group reps said they had seen an improvement in enforcement, and asked how much it was affecting sales. Silverman replied "I'm also proud to say that we are seeing no deleterious effect to GMS from that. People don't come to Etsy wanting mass-produced product, and we're finding that as we do even more to suppress those listings on the site, the site experience only gets better." [In other news, I am not at all proud to say that the packaged snack seller who is violating Etsy's gift basket policy by selling mass-produced foods in cardboard boxes is still on Etsy, and is now a Star Seller, despite me reporting them twice in 2 1/2 years. Since the corporation isn't removing this stuff - which sells well - I am not surprised that the gross marketplace sales have not been affected yet.]

Purchase Protection and On-Time Delivery Guarantees

As shown at the top of this post, Etsy's recent changes to the Purchase Protection Plan - officially stating that eligible orders arriving after the last estimated delivery date will be fully refunded after a case is opened - are a key part of the holiday marketing plan in the United States only, even though the policy applies worldwide.

Slide 9 notes that over 98% of orders were delivered on time in the US last holiday season [but of course sellers could enter their own custom delivery windows then, which is no longer possible in the US or the UK]. The slide did not note if that included items where tracking doesn't always get updated on Etsy, such as envelopes with Pitney-Bowes labels, or services Etsy doesn't program the tracking for. Were those part of the late items, or were they not included at all? We just do not know.

[Remember, if your order qualifies for seller protection, Etsy is the one who pays the refund, not you. They've been doing this for over a year now. Of course, some countries and classes of items are less likely to quality for seller protection, largely due to shipping and tracking differences. Review how seller protection works if you are concerned.]

Advertising

One of the most interesting parts of the call was both Silverman and Glaser blaming Temu and Shein for running massive ad campaigns that were not sustainable if they wanted to be profitable. They explicitly stated Etsy may reduce the spending on Offsite Ads if the other companies are driving bids up higher than they are worth, and also said they are increasing paid social media as one way to compensate. [So if you rely on sales from Offsite Ads, watch those number in the next few months.]

Overall, Etsy spent more on marketing/advertising this quarter than the previous year, up 9% to $161 million. As part of that, new commercials will come out in the UK and the US for the holidays, while Etsy tried TV commercials in Austria and Switzerland during the quarter.

"Etsy Ads was the primary driver of [services revenue] strength as we optimized our XWalk functionality to better value potential listing conversion and pricing into our ad ranking system." [Since I don't use Etsy Ads any more, I can't test this at all. They've previously said they incorporated listing prices into the search algorithm, but my testing demonstrated little effect. This is something I will test in search again.]

Miscellaneous

Etsy alone has added nearly 1 million sellers over 3 quarters after that number being relatively flat for a year, and Silverman says they've done nothing to go after those new folks. More people selling on Etsy was attributed to economic factors [but I suspect AI availability is also involved, as the tutorials for setting up an AI-generated shop on Etsy are all over the web now. Note this increase means that while gross marketplace sales have been roughly flat this year, the average amount per seller has dropped.]

Etsy spent around $1 million covering the October bills of sellers affected by war in Israel and Gaza.

Depop had an excellent quarter; "GMS and revenue both grew double digits on a year-over-year basis with growth in active buyers sparked by strong new buyer growth in the U.S." Reverb was down a bit, but kept ahead of other musical instrument businesses.

Silverman has mentioned that Etsy isn't the first place many people think to shop for certain types of items over several different calls now. For example, "Only 12% of buyers will name Etsy top of mind as the place to shop for gifts." They don't seem to have any updated numbers showing how they've been improving that situation. [It's time to go after that "enormous opportunity", Josh!]

I wish I could report there is a light at the end of the tunnel, but just waiting for the economy to improve is probably not the best way to increase sales. Yes, economic factors are a big part of Etsy's sales stagnation, and Etsy is doing better than many of its competitors, but they are going to have to present some new plans soon if they expect to keep investors happy.

Don't be surprised if there are major site changes in 2024, because this can't continue.

[cicaklah]

I posted 1,297 times in 2022

That's 37 more posts than 2021!

427 posts created (33%)

870 posts reblogged (67%)

Blogs I reblogged the most:

@stickthisbig

@bourbonpowered

@sixohsixoheightfourtwo

@cicaklah

@llywela13

I tagged 1,226 of my posts in 2022

Only 5% of my posts had no tags

#hitman - 208 posts

#oxventure - 126 posts

#meme me - 121 posts

#oxventure in the dark - 68 posts

#fic writing problems - 60 posts

#fic meme - 40 posts

#mergo - 39 posts

#cicak does an art - 26 posts

#star trek - 25 posts

#needle felting - 24 posts

Longest Tag: 131 characters

#because for all she says she loves me and respects me and is proud of me she also loves being horrible to me so she can feel better

My Top Posts in 2022:

#5

Dob, do you have any fatal allergies? As your fiance, I think I should know. Just in case.

Just your friendly neighborhood queen of thieves

See the full post

63 notes - Posted May 26, 2022

#4

Being an economist on main again, soz...

So my last post got reblogged by people but I wanted, in true economist fashion, to really, truly, highlight why the current UK bullshit is so upsetting as a very normie, mainstream, working economist.

Economics is broadly split into two disciplines, microeconomics, which is basically the way the economy and individuals interact, and macroeconomics, which is how the economy as a whole-ass beast works. The main problem between these two disciplines is that a lot of rules of micro don't 'hold' when you get to the macro level, and vice versa. You might remember how economists always say that treating debt at country level the way we think about individual credit card or mortgage debt is wrong, that is a prime example of how micro and macro rules don't hold. Things, generally, are so much more complicated at macro level.

Because of this, most economists specialise in one or the other. I am a microeconomist, specifically a health economist, and while there is some macro stuff, generally we treat health spending as a micro level problem, i.e. we're fairly sure that if we make decisions at an individual level, the macro will look after itself (the pennies will look after the pounds).

(Now, this is a simplification because you can rightly say, cicak, my friend, the NHS is falling apart, to which I will say: you is right, but it is because of 'externalities' rather than the conceptual decision making process inherent to microeconomics, to wit: over a decade of deliberate underfunding, a global pandemic, and Brexit have all led to NHS problems. The solution to all of these problems can be understood in micro terms: more money, applied where it is most needed, as part of a plan, with measurable goals and targets. Ultimately: politics.)

Anyway, tangents aside, microeconomics is pretty ideologically stable. Most mainstream economics is based around social welfare theory, which is that people do things for reasons that bring them the most benefit, and they broadly, mostly, in aggregate, do that to an acceptable level of efficiency. If you would like to argue about this: please proceed to your nearest economics masters course, you'll fit right in.

The main difference between the schools of macro is: do individual changes make differences at the macro level? Or do only governments really make a difference at macro?

This used to be a BIG ARGUMENT back in the 20th century, mostly around what should be done with the Great Depression in 1929. Basically, should you just let the economy burn to the ground, and see what comes out of it? Or should governments stop the economy from collapsing? The Austrian school thought burn it down, Keynes thought: government. Keynes, broadly, won. There was a 2nd world war, and Keynesianism was refined. Then, it went out of fashion. Then it came back into fashion. A lot of this depends on the concept of 'full employment', the 1980s, economic stability, boom and bust, but these days, most macro policy is described as Neo-Keynesian and is considered broadly settled on government finding a balance between price, inflation, employment, growth and stability. This is done through monetary policy and fiscal policy, stuff government does.

But then you've got your Austrians, your Hayekians, your Mises. They think that government should butt out of the market, and that individuals are far more important. Individuals, especially rich individuals, should be allowed to do what they want with their money, and everything will be better if government just stops taking their money and lets the free market solve it. This is why the first thing Truss & friends did was cut the top rate of tax. Less money for government (bad with money) but more money for the people that they believe are already good with money, because they have a lot of it, see?

Modern Austrians believe that individuals are the only thing that matter at macro level. There are no groups of people, only individuals. Credit is bad and the real cause of business failure. Stability can be gained by pegging currencies to gold reserves. Oh and as we can't model all 67 million people in the UK, theres no point even trying. It'd just be chaos. Even model nerds say 'all models are wrong'. So no point. Just do it and be a legend. It'll all work out in the end. Just trust us. OBR? Have a beer. The numbers don't real.

Instead, everyone fucking PANICKED. Because as I said, 99% of economists are in the business of predicting the future. The future suddenly got unpredictable. No one saw the top rate of tax being cut coming. There's no economic justification for it, no 'dont worry, it'll be funded by XYZ'. Just Austrian bullshit of 'here comes freedom lads.' No one is talking to each other. A man credited with keeping all the fiscal, monetary and political systems moving has been fired because it turns out the chancellor didn't like that he worked from South America. The Bank of England are furious. The markets are in peril, but Kwarteng's bezzie mates at his cocktail party bet that the pound would crash, and are rolling in it. Everyone loves a run on the pound, it seems.

So yeah there's some more of why the uks economy kind of exploded this week.

88 notes - Posted October 2, 2022

#3

See the full post

95 notes - Posted September 5, 2022

#2

See the full post

118 notes - Posted May 28, 2022

My #1 post of 2022

I love a Tory leadership contest, it's such a carnival of dickheads who absolutely believe in themselves being exposed to the oxygen of press attention for the first time, and they mostly act like those deep sea creatures that explode when brought to the surface.

409 notes - Posted July 7, 2022

Get your Tumblr 2022 Year in Review →

[whyohwhydoris]

This is a lovely idea. But four years of policy is not the democratic party. We must remember that this party routinely platforms Bill Clinton - and lets set aside his failings as a human being - who pushed through NAFTA, pushed through PNTR with the PRC, and over saw the repeal of Glass-Steagall. Barack Obama's economic policy bailed out big corporations and banks, but did little for the individuals destroyed by that rampant deregulation, and failed to jail the vast majority of individuals responsible for active financial crimes. When Sanders primaried Clinton, despite his garnering of notable support, and despite him *polling better in polls against Trump specifically* the party actively played favourites. And people will say Clinton would have won regardless- but we don't know because the entire process is tainted. At the same time they played party politics, they sent strong and clear messages to Latinx and young male democrats - the very demographics who have been most willing to move right of late - that they weren't welcome. The party actively promoted rhetoric which placed Black POC in a position of unique privilege in the party, assumed the fealty of other minority groups, and sidelined other POC voices which did not full toe the party line. On the issue of men, the Clinton campaign was *actively* insulting and diminishing of men, frequently targeting male commentators with sexist language and - in essence - telling them to shut up, the women are talking. The Clinton campaign also managed the sexist double whammy by framing Women who sided with Bernie as class-traitors - ignoring that the most common Bernie supporters were women of colour between the ages of 25 and 35. The Clinton campaign was practically a white-girl feminist playbook running for the white house. As for Kamala's run? She did, frankly, brilliantly. She didn't treat any group of people like the free square on the bingo card. She however failed and was failed in two critical areas: The genocide in Gaza and the cost of the bread basket. It is worth noting that support for Palestine is highest among the young, and among racial minority groups. It also happens that the lowest quintile (20%) of Americans by per capita take-home is disproportionately young (the single largest age cohort in the lowest quintile are households with a HOH 24 and under.) and people of colour. They are, definitionally, the core of the working class - and one of their major social issues was literally laughed at by the current DEMOCRATIC administration. But what about the bread basket? Biden nipped inflation in the bud, right? The Democrats beat it? Right? Well, to little, to late. Because dealing with year-on-year inflation doesn't actually reduce the cost of goods. At the same time that a vast plurality of Americans are experiencing serious economic woe, the Administration told them they were flat out wrong and that President Biden had fixed the economy. But that doesn't actually bring down the price of milk and eggs!

But, Harris ran on going after price gougers! Okay, then why didn't she or her surrogates focus on that in their closing weeks? Probably because a bunch of inside the belt-way consultants and a bunch of wall street policy wonks say it wouldn't work! Which, I don't know, sounds an awful lot like the party being captured by special interests. At the same time that the party base and the electorate at large were calling for a change candidate, Harris was saying, point blank, that she wouldn't differ from Biden, and was campaigning with established members of political dynasties because her advisors - many of whom were Biden folks she basically couldn't fire - were telling her to. The Democratic party is failing the working class. And if you don't see that, you're equally part of the problem. Macro-economic policies, large infrastructure bills, great job growth are paper statistics. But when you have a country where you had country with %93+ employment in 2020 and %95+ in 2024, those are talking points for %2 of people, not for the %90 who are struggling. And the party has no plan for those people because it is actively and routinely hostile to individuals who try to platform those concerns and far too reliant on individuals whose own power is defined by that inequality. And while you can say "most pro union" and "most anti-corporate" that doesn't actually help most people. That shit shouldn't be your head line item. That's literally the party's most basic job, and the fact Biden was exceptional is the most thorough damning of the party you can write, because it means that the last 70 years of Democrats have been fucking the working class on those issues. 4 years isn't good enough. And the party is too up its own ass to actually see what the typical *individual* is dealing with.

dropping this here

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

Trump’s election adds complexity to Brazil’s outlook, FGV warns

Macro Bulletin revises Q3 GDP growth forecast to 0.7% from 0.1% and full-year forecast to 3.3% from 2.9%

Despite upward revisions in GDP growth forecasts for the third quarter and 2024, the Macro Bulletin from Fundação Getulio Vargas’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre-FGV) warns that Donald Trump’s election in the United States further complicates Brazil’s already uncertain domestic scenario. The anticipation of a smaller interest rate cut cycle in the U.S. poses challenges for economies that rely on external financing. Persistent inflation and expectations of high interest rates in Brazil are expected to limit the pace of expansion in the coming years, particularly in cyclical activities, the bulletin cautions.

The November edition of the bulletin notes that Mr. Trump’s victory, alongside the Republican Party’s majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, suggests that his campaign proposals are likely to be enacted.

“Key economic impacts include increased barriers and tariffs on imports, especially from China, tax reductions, deregulation, and immigration crackdowns. These measures will pressure prices, leading to higher inflation, complicating interest rate cuts and strengthening the dollar,” the bulletin states.

Silvia Matos, coordinator of the Macro Bulletin, notes that tariff adjustments will not result in continuous inflation but rather a shift in relative prices that could persist for several months.

Continue reading.

[news365timesindia]

[ad_1] Elaborating on Tuesday’s various focus areas of the G20 Rio Declaration, India’s G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant stated that it builds upon the Leaders’ Declaration adopted during the G20 Summit in India. Calling the New Delhi Declaration “inclusive” and “ambitious,” Kant emphasised that the Rio Declaration calls for a “comprehensive ceasefire” in Gaza and Lebanon and reaffirms the commitment to a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict. “The Rio de Janeiro Declaration highlights the immense human suffering and adverse impacts of ongoing conflicts. It builds upon everything the New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration outlined in its geopolitical paragraphs relating to the planet and people. The geopolitical section in Rio has been drawn directly from the New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration,” Kant said. Kant further noted that the New Delhi Declaration was “inclusive” and “ambitious,” and many of its objectives and outcomes are reflected in the Rio Declaration. “I would emphasise that many of the ambitions–because, as you are all aware, the New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration, under the Prime Minister’s leadership, was very inclusive, forward-looking, and ambitious–have found a place in the Rio Declaration,” he said. Kant also highlighted the G20 Summit in Brazil’s focus on addressing hunger and poverty, which led to the launch of the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty. He said India had joined the alliance as one of its 147 founding members. “This year, the G20 has delivered a strong message in the fight against hunger and poverty. One of the key outcomes of this summit is that G20 leaders and heads of international organisations were invited to participate in the launch of the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty. India is one of the 147 founding members of this alliance,” Kant said. He added that the Rio Declaration addresses the situation in Gaza and Lebanon. “The geopolitical paragraphs of this G20 declaration discuss a comprehensive ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, in line with UN Security Council Resolution 2735. It also reaffirms the commitment to a two-state solution, envisioning Israel and Palestine living side by side in peace within secure and recognised borders,” Kant explained. The G20 declaration expressed deep concern over the “catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip and the escalation in Lebanon,” emphasising “the urgent need to expand the flow of humanitarian assistance, reinforce the protection of civilians, and demand the lifting of all barriers to the provision of humanitarian aid at scale.” Shifting focus to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, Kant said, “Regarding the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the G20 Declaration calls for a comprehensive, just, and durable peace, upholding all purposes and principles of the UN Charter to promote peaceful, friendly, and good neighbourly relations among nations. It also condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations.” Specifically addressing the war in Ukraine, the G20 Declaration, echoing discussions in New Delhi, highlighted the “human suffering and the additional negative impacts of the war on global food and energy security, supply chains, macro-financial stability, inflation, and economic growth.” [ad_2] Source link

[news365times]

[ad_1] Elaborating on Tuesday’s various focus areas of the G20 Rio Declaration, India’s G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant stated that it builds upon the Leaders’ Declaration adopted during the G20 Summit in India. Calling the New Delhi Declaration “inclusive” and “ambitious,” Kant emphasised that the Rio Declaration calls for a “comprehensive ceasefire” in Gaza and Lebanon and reaffirms the commitment to a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict. “The Rio de Janeiro Declaration highlights the immense human suffering and adverse impacts of ongoing conflicts. It builds upon everything the New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration outlined in its geopolitical paragraphs relating to the planet and people. The geopolitical section in Rio has been drawn directly from the New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration,” Kant said. Kant further noted that the New Delhi Declaration was “inclusive” and “ambitious,” and many of its objectives and outcomes are reflected in the Rio Declaration. “I would emphasise that many of the ambitions–because, as you are all aware, the New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration, under the Prime Minister’s leadership, was very inclusive, forward-looking, and ambitious–have found a place in the Rio Declaration,” he said. Kant also highlighted the G20 Summit in Brazil’s focus on addressing hunger and poverty, which led to the launch of the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty. He said India had joined the alliance as one of its 147 founding members. “This year, the G20 has delivered a strong message in the fight against hunger and poverty. One of the key outcomes of this summit is that G20 leaders and heads of international organisations were invited to participate in the launch of the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty. India is one of the 147 founding members of this alliance,” Kant said. He added that the Rio Declaration addresses the situation in Gaza and Lebanon. “The geopolitical paragraphs of this G20 declaration discuss a comprehensive ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, in line with UN Security Council Resolution 2735. It also reaffirms the commitment to a two-state solution, envisioning Israel and Palestine living side by side in peace within secure and recognised borders,” Kant explained. The G20 declaration expressed deep concern over the “catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip and the escalation in Lebanon,” emphasising “the urgent need to expand the flow of humanitarian assistance, reinforce the protection of civilians, and demand the lifting of all barriers to the provision of humanitarian aid at scale.” Shifting focus to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, Kant said, “Regarding the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the G20 Declaration calls for a comprehensive, just, and durable peace, upholding all purposes and principles of the UN Charter to promote peaceful, friendly, and good neighbourly relations among nations. It also condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations.” Specifically addressing the war in Ukraine, the G20 Declaration, echoing discussions in New Delhi, highlighted the “human suffering and the additional negative impacts of the war on global food and energy security, supply chains, macro-financial stability, inflation, and economic growth.” [ad_2] Source link

[darkmaga-returns]

I’m taking a bit of a mental health day, today, so I’ll cheat early by copying an interesting twitter thread by Philip Pilkington (h/t commenter FreeFrench). If the name Pilkington seems familiar, it may be because I’ve cited him several times in the past, mostly regarding geo-politically related matters (he’s a macro-economist), and most recently here: Assessing the Economic Value of Military Materiel.

I’m sure most readers have heard of the Shy Trump Effect, and may even have anecdotal evidence to support the idea. It’s a fairly well recognized phenomenon, but Pilkington, as an economist and therefore a stats savvy guy, puts some meat on them bones. In particular, he’s able to show a clear pattern of polling misses that always work against Trump and and quantifies that effect in swing states. Based on Nate Silver’s analysis, there should not be patterns like this—it should be more random, just based on the nature of most public (as opposed to internal) polls. So …

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

1/ The US election is here. If you analyze the polls properly you'll see that @realDonaldTrump is ahead of @KamalaHarris by anywhere between 2.4% and 6.9% in the swing states. The reason the media won't tell you this is because they don't understand the Shy Trump Effect

Image 3:15 AM · Nov 4, 2024

2/ The polls show consistent bias against @realDonaldTrump. This is not due to cheating but due to quirks in the polling. More later. For now, let us just look at polls versus outcomes. Here are the November polls in 2020 versus the actual results. They were way off.

[Mark Mitchell from Rasmussen has noted something like this phenomenon as well.]

Image 3/ Despite these not being the swing states in 2016, we see a similar pattern of polls missing their mark by a long shot in 2016. Again, the polls always showed @realDonaldTrump way behind what his actual results would be.

Image 4/ The difference between polls and election outcomes can show us the Shy Trump Effect in the polling. We have used the 2020 Shy Trump Effects to adjust the 2024 polling and this is what gives us the 2.4%-6.9% lead in swing states.

Image 5/ Why the Shy Effect? There are a few hypotheses. One is that Trump voters are less inclined to take surveys that they associate with the government. Basically, Trump-voting Boomers hang up the phone while Harris-voting Boomers love having their opinions heard. [Check]