#germany elections exit polls

[herpatrolllama]

Trump celebrates conservative party win in Germany

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[blushmovies]

Merz warns Europe should seek ‘independence’ from US after conservatives win German election - and far-right support surges

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[usanews24sworld]

Merz warns Europe should seek ‘independence’ from US after conservatives win German election - and far-right support surges

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[cksonjoy]

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German election results live: CDU’s Friedrich Merz claims win, AfD second

[mariacallous]

BERLIN (AP) — German opposition leader Friedrich Merz’s conservatives were on course for a lackluster victory in a national election Sunday, while Alternative for Germany nearly doubled its support, the strongest showing for a far-right party since World War II, projections showed.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz conceded defeat for his center-left Social Democrats after what he called “a bitter election result.” Projections for ARD and ZDF public television showed his party finishing in third place with its worst postwar result in a national parliamentary election.

Merz vowed to move quickly to put together a coalition government. But it wasn’t immediately clear how easy that will be.

A discontented nation

The election took place seven months earlier than originally planned after Scholz’s unpopular coalition collapsed in November, three years into a term that was increasingly marred by infighting. There was widespread discontent and not much enthusiasm for any of the candidates.

The campaign was dominated by worries about the years-long stagnation of Europe’s biggest economy and pressure to curb migration — something that caused friction after Merz pushed hard in recent weeks for a tougher approach. It took place against a background of growing uncertainty over the future of Ukraine and Europe’s alliance with the United States.

Germany is the most populous country in the 27-nation European Union and a leading member of NATO. It has been Ukraine’s second-biggest weapons supplier, after the U.S. It will be central to shaping the continent’s response to the challenges of the coming years, including the Trump administration’s confrontational foreign and trade policy.

The projections, based on exit polls and partial counting, put support for Merz’s Union bloc at just under 29% and Alternative for Germany, or AfD, about 20% — roughly double its result from 2021.

They put support for Scholz’s Social Democrats at just over 16%, far lower than in the last election and below their previous all-time low of 20.5% from 2017. The environmentalist Greens, their remaining partners in the outgoing government, were on 12-13%.

Out of three smaller parties, one — the hard-left Left Party — strengthened its position, winning up to 9% of the vote after a remarkable comeback during the campaign. Two other parties, the pro-business Free Democrats and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, hovered around the threshold of the 5% support needed to win seats.

A difficult task for the winner

Whether Merz will have a majority to form a coalition with Scholz’s Social Democrats or need a second partner as well will depend on how many parties get into parliament. The conservative leader said that “the most important thing is to re-establish a viable government in Germany as quickly as possible.”

“I am aware of the responsibility,” Merz said. “I am also aware of the scale of the task that now lies ahead of us. I approach it with the utmost respect, and I know that it will not be easy.”

“The world out there isn’t waiting for us, and it isn’t waiting for long-drawn-out coalition talks and negotiations,” he told cheering supporters. “We must now become capable of acting quickly again.”

The Greens’ candidate for chancellor, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, said that Merz would do well to moderate his tone after a sometimes hard-fought election campaign.

“We have seen the center is weakened overall, and everyone should look at themselves and ask whether they didn’t contribute to that,” said Habeck. “Now he must see that he acts like a chancellor.”

The Greens were the party that suffered least from participating in Scholz’s unpopular government. The Social Democrats’ general secretary, Matthias Miersch, suggested that their defeat was no surprise — “this election wasn’t lost in the last eight weeks.”

A delighted far-right party

AfD’s candidate for chancellor, Alice Weidel, said that “we have become the second-strongest force.” The party’s strongest previous showing was 12.6% in 2017, when it first entered the national parliament.

She said that her party is “open for coalition negotiations” with Merz’s party, and that “otherwise, no change of policy is possible in Germany.” But Merz has repeatedly and categorically ruled out working with AfD, as have other mainstream parties.

AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla told cheering supporters that “we have achieved something historic today.”

“We have gained 100%,” he said. “We are now the political center and we have left the fringes behind us.”

Scholz decried AfD’s success. He said that “that must never be something that we will accept. I will not accept it and never will.”

The head of Germany’s main Jewish organization, Josef Schuster, told daily newspaper Die Welt: “It must concern us all that a fifth of German voters are giving their vote to a party that is at least partly right-wing extremist, that openly seeks linguistic and ideological links to right-wing radicalism and neo-Nazism, that plays on people’s fears and only offers them ostensible solutions.”

More than 59 million people in the nation of 84 million were eligible to elect the 630 members of the lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, who will take their seats under the glass dome of Berlin’s landmark Reichstag building.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Christian Paz at Vox:

Voters in Germany maintained a few global trends this past weekend: They kicked out incumbents, their youth moved to the right, and they delivered another surprise. Their radical, anti-immigrant party (Alternative für Deutschland, or AfD) finished second, and was likely boosted by some LGBTQ voters. The rightward shift of gay, lesbian, and bisexual voters is a dynamic playing out across western Europe. In the UK, France, and now Germany, gay voters or their allies are backing far-right or nativist political parties at growing rates. That queer shift to the right doesn’t seem to be materializing in the United States, however. During the 2024 election, LGBTQ voters actually got more Democratic than in 2020. What explains this gulf, especially as so many other global political trends replicate themselves in the US? After reviewing the trends and historical context, I offer two theories: that Europeans have had vastly different experiences with international migration than those in the US; and that the American LGBTQ community has historical reasons to distrust a radicalized Republican Party in a two-party system.

The “homonativist” shift of European gays and their allies

It was once thought that the growing public acceptance of queerness and homosexuality would reinforce — or at least coincide — with generally more progressive views on political issues, both in and outside the United States. But that doesn’t appear to be the case. In Germany, those trends can be traced back to before the pandemic: Multiple analyses of LGBTQ voters found small, but sustained support from gay voters for AfD and center-right parties in 2021’s elections when compared to the 2017 federal elections there. One study even found that the probability of voting for the AfD increased in 2021 if you were LGBTQ. This year, one pre-election survey suggested AfD would receive the highest share of LGBTQ voters’ support among the major parties. (The AfD having a charismatic gay leader this year likely didn’t hurt either.)

As the researcher and political analyst François Valentin writes, this dynamic has been true in France and the United Kingdom going back to as early as 2015. One analysis of vote choice in 2015 found that it was married gay men who were most likely to support the anti-immigrant National Front (FN), the French far-right party, in that year’s regional elections (and more likely than married straight men), while married gay women supported the FN at about the same level as straight women. It was during that time that the FN went through a refresh, becoming less antagonistic to LGBTQ people and courting them. In the United Kingdom, the center-left Labour Party has generally held strong support from lesbian, gay, and bisexual voters, while far-right parties have struggled to gain a substantial share of these voters in recent years. But across Europe, there has emerged a different kind of electorate: one with progressive views on homosexuality, but conservative or reactionary views on immigration. Nearly a third of the British electorate could fall under this “homonativist” classification, according to one analysis prepared for the London School of Economics. Far-right parties in France and Germany have been nearly single-mindedly focused on tougher policies toward migrants and refugees, suspicion of Islam in particular, opposition to European Union integration, and a reclamation of native or national identity. The UK’s Conservative party has embraced many of these nativist ideals as well.

[...]

Why “homonativists” still haven’t gotten their footing in the US

Not only have LGBTQ voters not seen the same rightward drift as their European counterparts, but they’ve actually seen the opposite: From 1992 to 2016, exit polls have shown this bloc of voters have been steadily getting more liberal. (Exit polls can be noisy and unreliable, and usually corrected months after elections, but are still the best tool we have for measuring trends for groups like LGBTQ voters.)

In 2020, polling did suggest a rightward turn for queer voters: Trump cut into the Democratic margin of victory with the demographic compared to 2016 by nearly 20 points. In 2024, signs were pointing toward another year of Republican improvement with these voters. But the final result was another twist: Kamala Harris won the highest level of support from LGBTQ voters in modern history — 86 percent. In fact, LGBTQ voters were one of the only demographics that shifted left last year. And their ideologies have remained consistently liberal — 47 percent of LGBTQ men and 63 percent of LGBTQ women identify as liberal. The explanations here are various — starting with the unique American political experience of the gay rights movement. But one key thing to understand is that while most European nations have multiparty systems that can give voters a sense that the most extreme positions of any given party will be checked by a team of rivals, the US really only has two parties. And while both started off as hostile to gay rights, the Democratic Party has been quicker to tolerate, accept, and champion LGBTQ people. The Republican Party has been much more hostile. That’s been particularly true during the last five years, which have featured GOP fearmongering around trans athletes and bathrooms, “grooming,” and “Don’t Say Gay” legislation. In this way, the Republican Party went in the opposite direction of many European far-right or right-wing parties’ toning down of homophobic or bigoted speech and positions.

Around the world, more and more of the LGBTQ+ vote (especially the cis gay male vote) is backing far-right parties, and this is true across European nations. In the USA, however, the opposite happened: more LGBTQ+ people voted Democratic compared to past elections, and that is due to the GOP’s rabid hatred for the LGBTQ+ community.

[warningsine]

BRUSSELS (AP) — Far-right parties made such big gains at the European Union parliamentary elections that they dealt stunning defeats to two of the bloc’s most important leaders: French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

In France, the National Rally party of Marine Le Pen dominated the polls to such an extent that Macron immediately dissolved the national parliament and called for new elections, a massive political risk since his party could suffer more losses, hobbling the rest of his presidential term that ends in 2027.

In Germany, Scholz suffered such an ignominious fate that his long-established Social Democratic party fell behind the extreme-right Alternative for Germany, which surged into second place.

Adding insult to injury, the National Rally’s lead candidate, Jordan Bardella, all of 28 years old, immediately took on a presidential tone with his victory speech in Paris, opening with “My dear compatriots” and adding “the French people have given their verdict, and it’s final.”

Macron acknowledged the thud of defeat. “I’ve heard your message, your concerns, and I won’t leave them unanswered,” he said, adding that calling a snap election only underscored his democratic credentials.

The four-day polls in the 27 EU countries were the world’s second-biggest exercise in democracy, behind India’s recent election. At the end, the rise of the far right was even more stunning than many analysts predicted. The French National Rally stood at just over 30% or about twice as much as Macron’s pro-European centrist Renew party that is projected to reach around 15%.

In Germany, the most populous nation in the 27-member bloc, projections indicated that the AfD overcame a string of scandals involving its top candidate to rise to 16.5%, up from 11% in 2019. In comparison, the combined result for the three parties in the German governing coalition barely topped 30%.

Overall across the EU, two mainstream and pro-European groups, the Christian Democrats and the Socialists, remained the dominant forces. The gains of the far right came at the expense of the Greens, who were expected to lose about 20 seats and fall back to sixth position in the legislature.

For decades, the European Union, which has its roots in the defeat of Nazi Germany and fascist Italy, confined the hard right to the political fringes. With its strong showing in these elections, the far right could now become a major player in policies ranging from migration to security and climate.

The Greens were predicted to fall from 20% to 12% in Germany, a traditional bulwark for environmentalists, with more losses expected in France and several other EU nations. Their defeat could well have an impact on the EU’s overall climate change policies, still the most progressive across the globe.

The center-right Christian Democratic bloc of EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, which already weakened its green credentials ahead of the polls, dominated in Germany with almost 30%, easily beating Scholz’s Social Democrats, who fell to 14%, even behind the AfD.

“What you have already set as a trend is all the better – strongest force, stable, in difficult times and by a distance,” von der Leyen told her German supporters by video link from Brussels.

As well as France, the hard right, which focused its campaign on migration and crime, was expected to make significant gains in Italy, where Premier Giorgia Meloni was tipped to consolidate her power.

Voting will continue in Italy until late in the evening and many of the 27 member states have not yet released any projections. Nonetheless, data already released confirmed earlier predictions: the EU’s massive exercise in democracy is expected to shift the bloc to the right and redirect its future.

With the center losing seats to hard right parties, the EU could find it harder to pass legislation and decision-making could at times be paralyzed in the world’s biggest trading bloc.

EU lawmakers, who serve a five-year term in the 720-seat Parliament, have a say in issues from financial rules to climate and agriculture policy. They approve the EU budget, which bankrolls priorities including infrastructure projects, farm subsidies and aid delivered to Ukraine. And they hold a veto over appointments to the powerful EU commission.

These elections come at a testing time for voter confidence in a bloc of some 450 million people. Over the last five years, the EU has been shaken by the coronavirus pandemic, an economic slump and an energy crisis fueled by the biggest land conflict in Europe since the Second World War. But political campaigning often focuses on issues of concern in individual countries rather than on broader European interests.

The voting marathon began in the Netherlands on Thursday, where an unofficial exit poll suggested that the anti-migrant hard right party of Geert Wilders would make important gains, even though a coalition of pro-European parties has probably pushed it into second place.

Casting his vote in the Flanders region, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, whose country holds the EU’s rotating presidency until the end of the month, warned that Europe was “more under pressure than ever.”

Since the last EU election in 2019, populist or far-right parties now lead governments in three nations — Hungary, Slovakia and Italy — and are part of ruling coalitions in others including Sweden, Finland and, soon, the Netherlands. Polls give the populists an advantage in France, Belgium, Austria and Italy.

“Right is good,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who leads a stridently nationalist and anti-migrant government, told reporters after casting his ballot. “To go right is always good. Go right!”

After the election comes a period of horse-trading, as political parties reconsider in their places in the continent-wide alliances that run the European legislature.

The biggest political group — the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) — has moved further right during the present elections on issues like security, climate and migration.

Among the most watched questions is whether the Brothers of Italy — the governing party of populist Meloni, which has neo-fascist roots — stays in the more hard-line European Conservatives and Reformists group or becomes part of a new hard right group that could form the wake of the elections. Meloni also has the option to work with the EPP.

A more worrying scenario for pro-European parties would be if the ECR joins forces with Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy group to consolidate hard-right influence.

The second biggest group — the center-left Socialists and Democrats — and the Greens refuse to align themselves with the ECR.

Questions also remain over what group Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party might join. It was previously part of the EPP but was forced out in 2021 due to conflicts over its interests and values. The far-right Alternative for Germany was kicked out of the Identity and Democracy group following a string of scandals surrounding its two lead candidates for the European Parliament.

The election also ushers in a period of uncertainty as new leaders are chosen for the European institutions. While lawmakers are jostling over places in alliances, governments will be competing to secure top EU jobs for their national officials.

Chief among them is the presidency of the powerful executive branch, the European Commission, which proposes laws and watches to ensure they are respected. The commission also controls the EU’s purse strings, manages trade and is Europe’s competition watchdog.

Other plum posts are those of European Council president, who chairs summits of presidents and prime ministers, and EU foreign policy chief, the bloc’s top diplomat.

[vague-humanoid]

Berlin CNN  — 

For the first time since 1945 a German far-right party is projected to win in regional elections, exit polls show.

Founded in 2013, far-right Alternative für Deutschland – or Alternative for Germany (AfD) - is on track to claim victory in state parliamentary elections in the country’s eastern region of Thuringia, initial exit polls by German state broadcaster ZDF show.

AfD is projected to get 33.5% of the vote, well ahead of the conservative party Christian Democrats (CDU) with 24.5%, according to ZDF.

In Saxony, which also held a regional election Sunday, the two parties are neck and neck, according to state broadcaster ZDF.

Newly founded left-wing party, the Sarah Wagenknecht alliance – or BSW – looks to be coming in third in both Thuringia and Saxony, where roughly 1.7 million people and 3.3 million were eligible to vote, respectively.

[simply-ivanka]

Far-right parties rattled the traditional powers in the European Union and made major gains in parliamentary elections Sunday, dealing an especially humiliating defeat to French President Emmanuel Macron.

On a night where the 27-member bloc palpably shifted to the right, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni more than doubled her seats in the EU parliament. And even if the Alternative for Germany extreme right party was hounded by scandal involving candidates, it still rallied enough seats to sweep past the slumping Social Democrats of Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Undoubtedly however, the star on a stunning electoral night was the National Rally party of Marine Le Pen, which dominated the French polls to such an extent that Macron immediately dissolved the national parliament and called for new elections. It was a massive political risk since his party could suffer more losses, hobbling the rest of his presidential term that ends in 2027.

Le Pen was delighted to accept the challenge. “We’re ready to turn the country around, ready to defend the interests of the French, ready to put an end to mass immigration,” she said, echoing the rallying cry of so many far-right leaders in other countries who were celebrating substantial wins.

Her National Rally won over 30% or about twice as much as Macron’s pro-European centrist Renew party that is projected to reach less than 15%.

Macron acknowledged the thud of defeat. “I’ve heard your message, your concerns, and I won’t leave them unanswered,” he said, adding that calling a snap election only underscored his democratic credentials.

[head-post]

Scholz’s bitter collapse: Victory of AfD and Conservatives in Germany

The Christian Democratic and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) alliance has won the early elections to the Bundestag. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) trailed behind, posting the best result for a nationally orientated party in the country’s post-war history, according to exit polls presented by ARD television.

Scholz admitted his party’s defeat, saying that “this time the election results are disappointing, and I am also responsible for that.” He called for the rise of the nationally orientated to be resisted, noting that “we should never accept” the fact that a party like the AfD gets “such results in this country.” For his part, the chancellor’s running mate, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, described the election results as “crushing” and “catastrophic.”

Merz declared victory for his party, emphasising that “we will quickly carry out our government’s assignment because the world is not waiting for us there.” In his words, “we must become capable of quick action again.”

Weidel of the AfD celebrated her party’s “historic success.” She expressed her willingness to co-operate with the CDU because “otherwise Germany will not be able to change policy.”

Earlier this month, Merz assured that there would be “no co-operation, no tolerance, no minority government, nothing at all” with the AfD. After the election, he reiterated his pledge.

US supported AfD

In the months before the election, Weidel began to be actively supported by many conservatives around the world. But the most influential on this list was billionaire Elon Musk. He recorded a complimentary interview with Weidel, spoke at nationally orientated events publicly urging people to vote for the AfD, and repeatedly criticised the Scholz government.

At an AfD rally, the businessman said that in Germany “too much emphasis has been placed on past guilt.” He said “we need to get beyond that” because “children should not be held responsible for the sins of their parents.”

Exit polls showed the AfD performing well among young voters, winning 22 per cent of the vote in the 25 to 34 age group, ahead of the CDU/CSU with 18 per cent and the Greens and Left with 16 per cent each.

Commenting on the preliminary election results, Donald Trump said that, as in the US, “the people of Germany are tired of a meaningless agenda, especially on energy and immigration.” He called February 23 “a great day” for Germany and the US “under the leadership of a gentleman named Donald Trump.”

Asked about the reasons for the US administration’s support, Weidel said that for Trump “there may be something personal behind it.” His grandfather, Frederick Trump, immigrated to the US in the late 1800s from Germany. Those blood ties, according to the AfD leader, could have prompted the Republican to ask, “What is happening on our grandparents’ continent?”

Merz, meanwhile, amid Trump’s harsh criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, called the Republican “a president who admires autocratic systems and disregards all norms” and criticised Vance as “a vice president who tells us how to run our democracy.” He also condemned Trump for his recent statements on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

As the next chancellor, the CDU/CSU leader is expected to pursue a foreign policy more in line with Trump’s ideas that Europe should take responsibility for its own defence. After winning the election, Merz prioritised independence from the US and said the Trump administration was “indifferent” to the fate of Ukraine.

As for the AdG, as TIME reported the run-up to the election, the party calls for the lifting of sanctions against Russia and opposes arms deliveries to Ukraine. Weidel’s party is pushing for Germany to reintroduce a national currency and for the European Union to become a freer “association of European countries,” though it does not openly advocate leaving the bloc.

A series of fatal attacks in which migrants were suspected have given AfD’s Weidel an excuse for her calls for radical changes in border policy, including mass deportations of immigrants and German citizens deemed poorly integrated, causing Merz in particular to struggle to outflank her.

The latest attack came on Friday when a Spanish tourist was stabbed at a Berlin Holocaust memorial, allegedly by a 19-year-old Syrian refugee who prosecutors said planned to kill Jews.

Read more HERE

[beardedmrbean]

You can't make this shit up. Macron's party lost the european elections by an absolute landslide, and the first thing he does, I kid you not, is dissolve the fucking national assembly. Do you want to take a guess who the last guy to do this was ??

Le Pen won? If someone had told me this would happen 8-10 years ago I would have called them a liar, then again AfD is picking up steam in Germany and according to reports every single party in Belgium has shifted to the right some, some less than others.

As for my wild guess

Philippe Pétain? or maybe that was just him dissolving it so he could surrender.

Let's look at the write up

PARIS (Reuters) -French President Emmanuel Macron suffered a heavy defeat in European Parliament elections on Sunday, with Marine Le Pen's far-right party sealing a definitive win that underlines her credentials as frontrunner for France's 2027 presidential vote.

Le Pen's National Rally (RN) party, led by telegenic 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, won around 32% of the vote, more than double the Macron ticket's 15%, according to the first exit polls. The Socialists came within a whisker of Macron, with 14%.

Le Pen's strong showing, notching a 10-point increase on the last EU election in 2019, will weaken Macron's hold on power three years before the end of his final term. It could also prompt high-level defections from his centrist camp as the succession battle to replace him heats up.

In a victory speech to a rapturous audience at party headquarters, Bardella urged Macron to call for a new legislative election, although the president is under no obligation to follow suit. "Emmanuel Macron is this evening a weakened president," he said. "The president cannot remain deaf to the message sent by the French tonight."

Le Pen and Bardella sought to frame the EU election as a mid-term referendum on Macron's mandate, tapping into discontent with immigration, crime and a two-year inflation crisis.

With widespread expectations of a bruising loss, government officials sought to downplay the importance of the European poll, pledging to maintain policy focus and arguing that EU elections are a poor predictor of presidential voting. ___________________

Ya he got spanked,

I wish there was a solid definition for president across the EU some countries they have almost no responsibilities and in others we get folks like Macron with actual authority

Other countries have a monarch instead of a president too.

Whole thing is less embarrassing for him if they called for him to do it, France and the UK both doing snap elections, wonder how Germany is doing.

[blushmovies]

Germany's conservatives aim sharp words at Washington after beating far right in elections

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[newstfionline]

Friday, August 2, 2024

US and Russia complete biggest prisoner swap in post-Soviet history (NYT) A prisoner swap involving seven countries freed the Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, two other Americans and several Russian opposition figures. It was the most far-reaching exchange between Russia and the West in decades. In return, Western governments released eight people, including Vadim Krasikov, who had been sentenced to life in prison in Germany for assassinating a Chechen former fighter in Berlin. The exchange took place today at the international airport in Ankara, Turkey’s capital, and it involved seven planes ferrying 24 prisoners who were from the U.S., Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Norway and Russia. The exchange was also a triumph of sorts for Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, who had long sought Krasikov’s release. Russia legally permits people they accuse of extremism to be killed abroad, my colleague Neil MacFarquhar said. “So, in the eyes of the Kremlin, Krasikov’s assassination in Berlin of a Chechen separatist leader whom Russia labeled a terrorist was legitimate,” he said.

Governor calls on flood-weary Vermonters to ‘stick together��� with more thunderstorms on the horizon (AP) Vermont’s governor said Wednesday that the latest storms to hit the state have undone much of the cleanup and recovery work from its last major bout of flooding only weeks ago, and he called on residents to “stick together” amid fears that more bad weather could cause even more damage. Thunderstorms on Tuesday brought another round of heavy flooding that washed away roads, crushed vehicles, pushed homes off their foundations and required at least two dozen boat rescues in northeastern Vermont. Some areas got more than 8 inches (20 centimeters) of rain. More downpours arrived Wednesday, with flash flooding possible in some already inundated areas. “This time, it’s especially bad after workers spent the past three weeks working furiously to recover from the last flooding, “ Gov. Phil Scott said at the news conference. “It feels much worse than a punch or a kick. It’s simply demoralizing. But we can’t give up. We’ve got to stick together and fight back against the feeling of defeat.”

Maduro urges Venezuelans to report protesters who question his reelection (Washington Post) Government security forces are detaining volunteer poll watchers who monitored the presidential election here Sunday, opposition leaders said, and President Nicolás Maduro is encouraging Venezuelans to report protesters who dispute the claim that he won. More than 1,000 people have been arrested and at least 16 have been killed in mass protests since the election, government officials and civil society groups said Wednesday, as Venezuelans continued to question the reelection of the authoritarian socialist. Maduro’s electoral council says he defeated challenger Edmundo González by 7 percentage points to win six more years in office, but has refused to publish voting data to support the claim. Independent exit polling, an analysis of results from a sample of voting centers and, the opposition says, the government’s own records show González captured twice as many votes as Maduro. Maduro claimed on Wednesday that the opposition had hacked the country’s voting system.

Far-right rioters attack U.K. police, mosque amid false claims on stabbings (Washington Post) Police said the riot in Southport on Tuesday night was stoked in part by social media posts that incorrectly alleged that the stabbing was perpetrated by a recent asylum seeker who had arrived in Britain by illegally crossing the English Channel on a raft. Amid reported chants of ‘We want our country back,’ rioters pelted police with bricks, injuring as many as 50 officers and sending 27 to hospitals. The rioters also smashed the windows of a mosque, torched vehicles and looted a shop. The violence, on the same day the town was holding a peaceful, heartrending vigil for the dead and injured girls, stunned Britain, where the stabbings have been round-the-clock news.

Paris Triathletes Finally Swim in the Seine (Daily Beast) Olympic swimmers finally returned to the cleaned-up river Seine for the first time since 1900 for the men’s and women’s triathlons races—and the first reviews are in. “It didn’t taste great,” New Zealand racer Ainsley Thorpe told The Wall Street Journal. “It’s a little bit brown.” Torrential rains over the weekend had swept tons of wastewater and sewage into the river, overloading a $1.5 billion system to keep the waterway clean. Triathletes were then unable to familiarize themselves with the course, with training runs canceled for several days because of high bacteria levels, shown by daily testing for E. coli and enteroccus. The fact that organizers were able to run the triathlon, and not be forced to hold only a duathlon, will come as a relief to Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo, who has made cleaning up the Seine a pet project and who took a much-publicized dip in the river two weeks ago with 100 city officials to show that the clean-up was working. The nightmare scenario—swimmers vomiting en masse after ingesting the polluted river water—was avoided, although one Canadian competitor, Tyler Mislawchuk, was captured by the TV cameras vomiting copiously after crossing the finish line.

In eastern Ukraine, Russian ‘glide bombs’ push civilians to flee (CSM) The tiny poodle strains at its leash and barks, triggering a deafening reaction from a pack of dogs roaming the wreckage in this town in Ukraine’s embattled far east, some 10 miles from Russia’s gradually advancing forces. “A lot of people are leaving, and let their dogs go,” explains the poodle’s owner, a retired Ukrainian military pilot who gives the name Oleksandr. On their right stands the shell of an apartment block, hollowed out just days before by a single Russian “glide bomb”—a heavy Soviet-era “dumb” bomb upgraded with wings and a guidance system, and launched from a plane deep inside Russian airspace. On their left is all that remains of a kindergarten complex. “A lot of people lived here all their lives, and have apartments and jobs, but now our lives look like this,” says Oleksandr, as he describes how Russia’s advancing forces and use of glide bombs are triggering new departures from this Donetsk coal mining town. “Now the front is coming closer, and it’s more and more dangerous to live here,” says Oleksandr. “Now the intensity of the strikes is like never before.” Augmenting Russia’s supply of rockets and missiles, the glide bombs, which can pack from 500 pounds to more than 3,000 pounds of explosive punch each, remain virtually unstoppable by Ukraine’s air defense systems.

As War Gets Bleaker, More Ukrainians Appear Open to a Peace Deal (NYT) Olha Predchenko held hands with her 85-year-old mother as they looked at the makeshift memorial on the grass in central Kyiv, each blue and yellow flag marked with the name of a soldier who had died fighting in the war with Russia. They come here often to Maidan Square, to spend time thinking about the dead and the war. Ms. Predchenko said she dreamed of something heavy falling on the Kremlin. But she also hoped for a peace deal soon. “Better a bad peace than a good war,” added Ms. Predchenko, 61. Increasingly frustrated, more Ukrainians appear to be opening up to the idea of a negotiated peace, even as they remain vague about what that means. Most Ukrainians still oppose ceding any territory to Russia, not even the Crimean peninsula that was seized by Russia 10 years ago, polls show. But those polls and recent remarks by the country’s leaders also highlight a palpable shift in the conversation around peace talks—from a no-deal-not-ever to a maybe-compromise-at-some-point.

China Wants to Start a National Internet ID System (NYT) It’s hard to be anonymous online in China. Websites and apps must verify users with their phone numbers, which are tied to personal identification numbers that all adults are assigned. Now it could get more difficult under a proposal by China’s internet regulators: The government wants to take over the job of verification from the companies and give people a single ID to use across the internet. The Ministry of Public Security and the Cyberspace Administration of China say the proposal is meant to protect privacy and prevent online fraud. Critics say it would further concentrate government control over the internet.

Hamas leader was killed by a bomb planted months ago (NYT) A Times investigation found that Ismail Haniyeh, a top leader of Hamas, was assassinated yesterday by an explosive device that was smuggled into the Tehran guesthouse where he was staying. The bomb was hidden approximately two months ago, but it was remotely triggered around 2 a.m. The guesthouse is run and protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and Haniyeh had stayed there on several occasions while visiting Iran, Middle Eastern officials said. Israel has not publicly acknowledged responsibility for the killing, but Israeli intelligence officials briefed the U.S. and other Western governments on the operation in its aftermath.

Iran’s Leader Orders Attack on Israel for Haniyeh Killing, Officials Say (NYT) Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly, in retaliation for the killing in Tehran of Hamas’s leader, Ismail Haniyeh, according to three Iranian officials briefed on the order. Israel has a long history of killing enemies abroad, including Iranian nuclear scientists and military commanders. Through almost 10 months of war in Gaza, Iran has tried to strike a balance, putting pressure on Israel with sharply increased attacks by its allies and proxy forces in the region, while avoiding an all-out war between the two nations.

The cycle of violence and radicalization (NYT) Yesterday, Iran and Hamas accused Israel of killing Ismail Haniyeh, one of the most senior leaders of Hamas, while he was in Tehran. Diplomats around the world are telling these parties to keep a lid on it. And the groups themselves say they do not want a wider regional war. Israel’s defense minister repeated the message on Wednesday. Iran has said the same thing, and so has Hezbollah. Yet the violence persists, as each party claims its attacks are reactions to previous ones. That’s why, in the span of a few months, Israeli bombs have hit Lebanon, Syria, Iran and Yemen. It’s why Hezbollah and Houthi fighters have repeatedly targeted Israel (and also ships passing through the Red Sea, disrupting global trade). It’s why American airstrikes have pummeled Yemen for nearly seven months. After the Haniyeh strike, Qatari officials—who help moderate Gaza peace talks—threw up their hands. “How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?” the Qatari prime minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, wrote on social media. Israel suggests that it, too, feels locked in a cycle of violence. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday that Israel faced threats “from everywhere” and said that he refused to “surrender” to voices telling him simply to “end the war.” It’s sensible for diplomats around the world to insist on peace and restraint. Combatants do often put their grudges aside; that’s how wars end. But there’s another possible future, too. In that scenario, enmities between Israel and its neighbors are growing only deeper. Officials and scholars I’ve spoken to say they worry that an entire generation could be radicalized by the current war.

Nigerians are frustrated by economic hardship (AP) Frustrated with growing economic hardships, Nigerians are planning nationwide protests this week against the country’s worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation. And with momentum soaring on social media, authorities fear a replay of the deadly 2020 demonstrations against police brutality in this West African nation—or a wave of violence similar to last month’s protests in Kenya, where a tax hike led to chaos in the capital, Nairobi. The government of Nigerian President Bola Tinubu says it is determined to prevent such a scenario in a country that has long been a top African oil producer but whose citizens are among the world’s poorest. Nigerian politicians and lawmakers, often accused of corruption, are some of the best-paid in Africa. Even the president’s wife—her office nowhere in the constitution—is entitled to SUVs and other luxuries funded by taxpayers. Nigeria’s population of over 210 million people—the continent’s largest—is also among the hungriest in the world and its government has struggled to create jobs.

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BRUSSELS (AP) — Far-right parties made major gains in European Union parliamentary elections Sunday, dealing stunning defeats to two of the bloc’s most important leaders: French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

In France, the National Rally party of Marine Le Pen dominated the polls to such an extent that Macron immediately dissolved the national parliament and called for new elections. It was a massive political risk since his party could suffer more losses, hobbling the rest of his presidential term that ends in 2027.

Le Pen was delighted to accept the challenge. “We’re ready to turn the country around, ready to defend the interests of the French, ready to put an end to mass immigration,” she said, echoing the rallying cry of so many far-right leaders in other countries who were celebrating substantial wins.

Macron acknowledged the thud of defeat. “I’ve heard your message, your concerns, and I won’t leave them unanswered,” he said, adding that calling a snap election only underscored his democratic credentials.

In Germany, the most populous nation in the 27-member bloc, projections indicated that the AfD overcame a string of scandals involving its top candidate to rise to 16.5%, up from 11% in 2019. In comparison, the combined result for the three parties in the German governing coalition barely topped 30%.

Scholz suffered such an ignominious fate that his long-established Social Democratic party fell behind the extreme-right Alternative for Germany, which surged into second place. “After all the prophecies of doom, after the barrage of the last few weeks, we are the second strongest force,” a jubilant AfD leader Alice Weidel said.

The four-day polls in the 27 EU countries were the world’s second-biggest exercise in democracy, behind India’s recent election. At the end, the rise of the far right was even more stunning than many analysts predicted.

The French National Rally crystalized it as it stood at over 30% or about twice as much as Macron’s pro-European centrist Renew party that is projected to reach around 15%.

Overall across the EU, two mainstream and pro-European groups, the Christian Democrats and the Socialists, remained the dominant forces. The gains of the far right came at the expense of the Greens, who were expected to lose about 20 seats and fall back to sixth position in the legislature. Macron’s pro-business Renew group also lost big.

For decades, the European Union, which has its roots in the defeat of Nazi Germany and fascist Italy, confined the hard right to the political fringes. With its strong showing in these elections, the far right could now become a major player in policies ranging from migration to security and climate.

Bucking the trend was former EU leader and current Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who overcame Law and Justice, the national conservative party that governed Poland from 2015-23 and drove it ever further to the right. A poll showed Tusk’s party won with 38%, compared to 34% for his bitter nemesis.

“Of these large, ambitious countries, of the EU leaders, Poland has shown that democracy, honesty and Europe triumph here,” Tusk told his supporters. “I am so moved.”

He declared, “We showed that we are a light of hope for Europe.”

Germany, traditionally a stronghold for environmentalists, exemplified the humbling of the Greens, who were predicted to fall from 20% to 12%. With further losses expected in France and elsewhere, the defeat of the Greens could well have an impact on the EU’s overall climate change policies, still the most progressive across the globe.

The center-right Christian Democratic bloc of EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, which already weakened its green credentials ahead of the polls, dominated in Germany with almost 30%, easily beating Scholz’s Social Democrats, who fell to 14%, even behind the AfD.

“What you have already set as a trend is all the better – strongest force, stable, in difficult times and by a distance,” von der Leyen told her German supporters by video link from Brussels.

As well as France, the hard right, which focused its campaign on migration and crime, was expected to make significant gains in Italy, where Premier Giorgia Meloni was tipped to consolidate her power.

Voting continued in Italy until late in the evening and many of the 27 member states have not yet released any projections. Nonetheless, data already published confirmed earlier predictions: the elections will shift the bloc to the right and redirect its future. That could make it harder for the EU to pass legislation, and decision-making could at times be paralyzed in the world’s biggest trading bloc.

EU lawmakers, who serve a five-year term in the 720-seat Parliament, have a say in issues from financial rules to climate and agriculture policy. They approve the EU budget, which bankrolls priorities including infrastructure projects, farm subsidies and aid delivered to Ukraine. And they hold a veto over appointments to the powerful EU commission.

These elections come at a testing time for voter confidence in a bloc of some 450 million people. Over the last five years, the EU has been shaken by the coronavirus pandemic, an economic slump and an energy crisis fueled by the biggest land conflict in Europe since the Second World War. But political campaigning often focuses on issues of concern in individual countries rather than on broader European interests.

Since the last EU election in 2019, populist or far-right parties now lead governments in three nations — Hungary, Slovakia and Italy — and are part of ruling coalitions in others including Sweden, Finland and, soon, the Netherlands. Polls give the populists an advantage in France, Belgium, Austria and Italy.

“Right is good,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who leads a stridently nationalist and anti-migrant government, told reporters after casting his ballot. “To go right is always good. Go right!”

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Jon Henley, Jennifer Rankin, and Lisa O'Carroll at The Guardian:

France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, has been accused of gambling with French democracy after announcing that he will dissolve parliament and call snap legislative elections in the wake of his allies’ crushing defeat to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) in Sunday’s European parliament elections. On a night that saw far-right parties make significant but far from conclusive gains in Europe, the RN won about 32% of French votes, more than double the 15% or so scored by Macron’s allies, according to projections, with the Socialists just behind on about 14%. The first round of elections for the national assembly will take place on 30 June and the second on 7 July, Macron announced in an address to the nation, in a huge gamble on his political future three years before the end of his second term as president. The outcome of the European parliament elections was “not a good result for parties who defend Europe”, the French president said, noting that, led by RN, far-right parties in France had taken almost 40% of the national vote.

“I cannot act as if nothing had happened,” he said. “I have decided to give you the choice ... Therefore I will dissolve the National Assembly tonight.” He said the decision was “serious and heavy”, but called it “an act of confidence”. Less than two months before the start of the 2024 Paris summer Olympic Games, Macron said he had confidence in “the capacity of the French people to make the best choice for themselves and for future generations”. He added: “This is an essential time for clarification. I have heard your message, your concerns, and I will not leave them unanswered … France needs a clear majority to act in serenity and harmony.” Others were less convinced. Raphaël Glucksmann, who headed the Socialist party’s list, said Macron had “given in” to Bardella. “This is a very dangerous game to play with democracy and the institutions. I am flabbergasted.”

Another critic, Valérie Pécresse, a senior figure in the conservative Les Républicains party, said: “Dissolving without giving anyone time to organise and without any campaign is playing Russian roulette with the country’s destiny.” “Emmanuel Macron is a poker player, we’ve seen that tonight,” said a Green party MP, Sandrine Rousseau. But Marine Le Pen, the RN figurehead who is seen as the front runner in 2027 presidential elections in which Macron cannot stand, said she welcomed the decision. “We are ready to put the country back on its feet. We are ready to defend the interests of the French people,” she said. Her party’s lead candidate for the European election, Jordan Bardella, 28, said voters had delivered a “a stinging rejection” of the president. Macron’s Renaissance party currently has 169 deputies in the national assembly, and the RN 88. If the far-right party wins an outright majority in the upcoming election, the president would effectively lose control over most French domestic policy.

[...]

Although exit polls indicated that the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) had made significant gains in Germany and was in second place on 16.5% of the vote, the opposition centre-right was on course for 29.5%. The AfD’s success came despite a slew of scandals, including its lead candidate saying that the SS, the Nazi’s main paramilitary force, were “not all criminals”. In Austria, meanwhile, the far-right Freedom party was forecast to come top, with a projected 27%, ahead of the conservative People’s party and the Social Democrats, on 23.5% and 23% respectively. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ far-right party was running a close second behind a Left-Green alliance. The Freedom party looked set to win 17.7% of the vote, while the Left-Green alliance, led by the former EU Commission vice-president, Frans Timmermans, was on 21.6%.

But it was far from a clean sweep for the far right, which fell short of expectations in Belgium. And crucially, parties on the extreme right remain divided, making them less influential in Brussels. According to an initial projection from the European parliament, MEPs from the four pro-European mainstream groups were forecast to retain a majority of seats in the assembly, but a smaller one than in 2019, which will make it increasingly difficult for them to pass laws. The European People’s party, Socialists and Democrats, the centrist Renew group and the Greens were on course for 456 of the 720 seats, a 63% share, compared with their 69.2% share in the slightly smaller outgoing parliament. These groups often find themselves on opposing sides – the Greens, for example, did not support Ursula von der Leyen as European Commission president in 2019.

The 2024 EU elections were a disasterclass for non-right-wing parties, especially in France, as that’s nation’s PM Emmanuel Macron announced the dissolution of parliament and called for new elections in the wake of the far-right surge.