#field howitzer

[militarymodeller]

Nr.328, The Trumpeter SKfz 7 and a s.K 18 10,5 cm cannon.

Nice but complicated combo and build. Trumpeter kits are not for the faint of hearted....

[theunsleepinghimbo]

i'm actually gonna go on record as a historian and say, on the subject of "why is every man i know always thinking about the roman empire", that means that every man you know has a dangerously bad relationship to imperialism

[rhk111sblog]

The A-29B Super Tucano Aircraft of the Philippine Air Force (PAF) seems to be operating on a Buddy System, sharing one Electro-Optical/Forward Looking Infra-Red (EO/FLIR) “Ball” for every two Aircraft while the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) used their newest Assets like the Super Tucanos, Autonomous Truck Mounted-howitzer System (ATMOS) and Hermes Drones to make a devastating strike against the New People's Army (NPA) even under the cover of Darkness

[if-you-fan-a-fire]

"BAD NEWS FOR AXIS FORTS IS THIS BIG NEW UNITED NATIONS' GUN," Toronto Star. March 22, 1943. Page 3. ----- POINTING MENACINGLY toward a target is the muzzle of this 240-mm. howitzer as its crew gets ready to fire the big gun at a testing and firing range. The gun throws a 360-pound shell 16,000 yards.

AFTER THE BIG GUN has been fired, its crew emerge from their fox holes. The long drawn-out roar and terrific impact of the howitzer is very different from the sharper reports of smaller guns.

THE TERRIFIC BLAST of the big new howitzer shell as it explodes on the testing area is something which may soon be all too familiar to the Axis.

[deutschland-im-krieg]

Heer (German army) soldiers on board a Sturmgeschütz III Ausf. G2 with a 105mm Sturmhaubitze 42 L/28. The gun is equipped with a muzzle brake off the light field howitzer 105mm leFH 18/40, uncharacteristic for this type of StuG III. Probably Eastern Front, 1943

[connorthemaoist]

March 21, 2024 | Ang Bayan

Desperate to “finish off” the revolutionary armed resistance of the Filipino people, the US-Marcos regime’s armed tentacles is carrying out a rampant terrorist and fascist rampage throughout the country. Marcos and the AFP are set to make one false declaration after another that provinces have become “insurgency-free,” especially in areas that have long been targets of foreign corporations for mining, plantation and energy projects. At the behest of US imperialism, the AFP is also in a hurry to “end” the armed struggle of the Filipino people so that the US military can fully employ the AFP in its war of provocation against China which is likely to intensify in the coming year.

Marcos and the leadership of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) have recently ordered an all-out war. The declared aim of this war is to dismantle all NPA guerrilla fronts by the end of March, destroy all NPA combat units by the end of June, and destroy all regional Party committees before the end of the year. Thousands of military troops, alongside police combat troops and tens of thousands of paramilitaries armed by the AFP, have been dispatched to ravage the countryside.

Hundreds of villages are being garrisoned by Marcos’ fascist minions. Oppressive soldiers are controlling people’s lives and livelihoods, silencing them and trampling on their rights and freedoms. Checkpoints and food blockades, prohibiting people from working in their fields or swidden farms, armed soldiers occupying barangay centers, going house to house and forcing people to “surrender,” harassing young women or even married women, all-night drinking, beatings and altercations, indiscriminate firing of guns—this is how people perceive the rotten soldiers. Amid drought and disasters, fascist soldiers are like pests who bring nothing but disaster to their communities.

Using powerful weapons such as drones and jetfighters, helicopters and howitzers, Marcos’s terrorist soldiers are bombing mountains and fields, indiscriminately firing night or day, destroying the forests and poisoning waters, shattering the peace and causing deep trauma to the people, especially children, pregnant women and the elderly. These result in unnecessary number of lives lost, contrary to all principles and laws of civilized warfare.

The evil aim of Marcos is to instill fear in the hearts of the people and force them prostrate while allowing their land to be grabbed by big foreign capitalists and their partner comprador bourgeoisie and big landlords. But instead of falling on the ground, the people are more and more roused to stand up and fight, and tread the path of armed revolution.

In the guerrilla fronts across the country, the units of the New People’s Army (NPA) continue to enjoy deep and widespread support from the peasant masses. Military officers of the AFP and the reactionary state are furious that despite their intensified all-out war which has lasted for almost seven years, the peasant masses continue to provide political and material support to the Red fighters. Young farmers, as well as young students, workers, as well as professionals continue to join the people’s army.

The people’s desire to carry forward the armed struggle continues to burn. Amid fascist attacks perpetrated by the armed minions of the US-Marcos regime, and oppressive policies that worsen their plight, it is becoming clearer to the minds and consciousness of the peasant masses that they completely have nothing if they do not have the New People’s Army on their side to defend their lives and rights, and to fight with for their land and livelihood.

In recent years, the NPA has suffered losses and setbacks in various parts of the country due to the errors and weaknesses of conservatism and complacency with its previous accomplishments. Instead of boldly treading the path of continuous expansion and invigoration of the armed struggle, the scope and mass base of guerrilla units were reduced, and units became passive and vulnerable to enemy encirclement. Under the guidance of and inspired by the Party, the NPA is determined to rectify errors and move forward on the path of strengthening and galvanizing the people’s war.

In the spirit of the rectification movement, the NPA must more vigorously wage armed struggle in all parts of the country. Utilizing the broad mass movement in guerrilla warfare, they must use all weapons—guns and rocks, spears and punji traps, shotguns and landmines—and carry out large or small tactical offensives that can be won against weak and isolated parts of the enemy. Strike at the enemy’s fascist troops and all its tentacles by way of rendering justice for the people and inspiring their resistance. Only by waging widespread armed resistance can the NPA consolidate, overcome setbacks and strengthen.

Since its establishment, five and a half decades ago, the NPA has served as the true people’s army in promoting the revolutionary aspirations of the Filipino people for national democracy. On its coming anniversary on March 29, let us celebrate its accomplishments for the past 55 years, pay tribute to all the martyrs and heroes, and reaffirm the determination to advance the protracted people’s war, without fear of sacrifices and hardships, to achieve ultimate victory in the future.

[usafphantom2]

AC-130 Gunship’s Laser Weapon Cancelled, 105mm Howitzer May Be Removed

The AC-130J was set to get the first operational airborne laser weapon, but that plan is over as the gunship changes to ensure its relevance.

Joseph TrevithickPUBLISHED Mar 19, 2024 1:56 PM EDT

The US Air Force no longer plans to flight test a laser directed energy weapon on an AC-130J Ghostrider gunship.

USAF

The U.S. Air Force has scrapped plans to flight test an AC-130J Ghostrider gunship armed with a laser directed energy weapon after years of delays. The Airborne High Energy Laser program for the AC-130J had for a time looked set to become the U.S. military's first operational aerial laser directed weapon. This all also comes amid a review of the AC-130J's current and future planned capabilities, which could see the gunships lose their 105mm howitzers, as part of a broader shift away from counter-insurgency operations to planning for a high-end fight.

Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC) confirmed that there are no longer plans to test the prototype Airborne High Energy Laser (AHEL) system on an AC-130J and provided other details about the current state of the program to The War Zone earlier today.

"After accomplishing significant end-to-end high power operation in an open-air ground test, the AHEL solid state laser system experienced technical challenges," an AFSOC spokesperson said in a statement. "These challenges delayed integration onto [the] designated AC-130J Block 20 aircraft past the available integration and flight test window."

One past US Air Force rendering of an AC-130 with a laser directed energy weapon. USAF

The original hope was flight testing of an AC-130J with the AHEL system would take place sometime in the 2021 Fiscal Year, but this schedule was repeatedly pushed back. In November 2023, AFSOC told The War Zone that a laser-armed Ghostrider was set to take to the skies in January of this year, something that clearly did not occur.

Lockheed Martin received the initial contract in 2019 to supply the AHEL's laser source for the system and lead the effort to integrate the system onto an AC-130J. The complete AHEL system also includes a beam director and other components.

A now-dated US Special Operations Command briefing slide discussing the AHEL program and the components of the weapon system itself. SOCOM

"As a result, the program was re-focused on ground testing to improve operations and reliability to posture for a successful hand off for use by other agencies," the statement added.

This is all further confirmed by the Pentagon's 2025 Fiscal Year budget request, which was rolled out last week, and does not ask for any new funding for AHEL. Official budget documents say this is because the program is expected to close out in the 2024 Fiscal Year.

What "other agencies" might now be in line to benefit from the AHEL program's work and the exact status of the 60-kilowatt class laser directed energy weapon system developed under the program are unclear. AFSOC directed further questions to U.S. Special Operations Command, which The War Zone has now reached out to for more information.

The U.S. Navy's Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Division (NSWC Dahlgren) had already been deeply involved in the AHEL program. The Navy has been very active in the development and fielding of various types of shipboard directed energy weapons, including another 60-kilowatt class laser directed energy weapon called the High-Energy Laser with Integrated Optical Dazzler and Surveillance, or HELIOS. Lockheed Martin is also the prime contractor for that system.

The US Navy's Arleigh Burke class destroyer USS Preble pierside in San Diego in July 2022. The ship's HELIOS directed energy weapon system can be seen on a platform immediately in front of the main superstructure. USN

The U.S. Army and U.S. Marine Corps have also been working to develop and field different types of air and ground-based directed energy weapons.

The Air Force has been working on at least one other aerial laser directed energy weapon in recent years, under the Air Force Research Laboratory's (AFRL) Self-protect High Energy Laser Demonstrator (SHiELD) program. The SHiELD effort was centered around a podded system for tactical jets ostensibly intended to help defend against incoming missiles, though it would have the ability to engage other target sets. In the past, the stated goal was to begin flight testing of the SHiELD pod in 2025, but its current status is unclear.

A rendering of a US Air Force F-16C Viper fighter with a podded laser directed energy weapon. Lockheed Martin

The Air Force is pursuing other directed energy weapon programs, including for base defense use on the ground. Additional work is understood to be going on in the classified realm, including efforts tied to the larger Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) initiative.

For the Air Force's current fleet of 30 AC-130Js, the end of the AHEL program comes amid larger questions about the future of Ghostrider's armament package and other current and future capabilities. There are growing signs that the Ghostriders are set to lose their 105mm howitzers as part of this reassessment of the aircraft's capabilities.

"Initiate engineering analysis and development to remove the aft weapon system (105mm Gun), refit the aft section, and optimize crew workload in support of the United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) crew reduction initiatives," is the plan for the AC-130Js in the 2024 Fiscal Year, according to the Pentagon's latest budget request. The War Zone has reached out to AFSOC for further clarification.

The Air Force originally planned not to include a 105mm howitzer in the armament package for the AC-130J, which was originally focused more on the employment of precision-guided missiles and bombs than guns at all. The service subsequently changed course and had more recently been in the process of integrating improved howitzers onto the Ghostriders. That work came to a halt last year after the start of the capability review. As of last November, only 17 of the 30 AC-130Js had gotten this upgrade.

AFSOC has been taking this new look at the Ghostrider's current and future planned capabilities in large part due to discussions about how AC-130Js might contribute to future high-end conflicts, especially one in the Pacific against China. AC-130Js, which are today primarily tasked with providing very close support to special operations forces on the ground, currently operate almost exclusively in permissive and semi-permissive environments and at night.

AHEL has been presented in the past as being ideally suited to supporting lower-intensity counter-insurgency-type missions.

"Without the slightest bang, whoosh, thump, explosion, or even aircraft engine hum, four key targets [an electrical transformer, the engine of a pick-up truck, communication equipment, and a parked drone,] are permanently disabled," now-retired Lt. Gen. Brad Webb, then head of AFSOC, said in a 2017 interview with National Defense magazine, describing a notional mission for a laser-armed AC-130. "The enemy has no communications, no escape vehicle, no electrical power, and no retaliatory intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capability. Minutes later, the team emerges from the compound, terrorist mastermind in hand. A successful raid."

In line with all this, the Air Force is also looking to add a new active electronically-scanned array (AESA) radar to these gunships, "allowing the platform to detect, target, identify, and engage across a spectrum of threats at longer ranges and react with greater precision," according to Pentagon budget documents. You can read more about the benefits of adding an AESA to the AC-130J here.

Other specialized C-130 variants belonging to AFSOC have been heavily involved in the testing of a palletized weapon system called Rapid Dragon. Rapid Dragon offers a way to readily transform existing cargo aircraft into launch platforms for AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) cruise missiles and other stand-off munitions. SOCOM has previously expressed interest in the past in integrating precision-guided munitions with longer reach onto the AC-130, in part to help keep those aircraft away from increasingly capable enemy air defenses. A return to a focus on precision-guided munition employment when it comes to the Ghostriders could be important for ensuring their continued operational relevance.

Altogether, the exact mix of capabilities found on the AC-130Js looks set to significantly evolve in the near term. However, a laser directed energy weapon is no longer on the horizon for the Ghostriders.

Howard Altman contributed to this story.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

@warzonewire via X

[captain-price-unofficially]

US Army heavy artillery. 240 mm howitzer M1 known as "Black Dragon" of Battery B', 697th Field Artillery Battalion, shelling German positions. Mignano area, Italy. January 30, 1944. They were amply used in counter-battery fire and against fortifications.

[meadowlarksabove]

@caesaremvehis caught Gabban staring

He had caught it, the lasting stare. Subtle as it was (so subtle the Legate was honestly not even sure whether it was anything at all, or if perhaps he had just imagined it) he gave the benefit of the doubt for a moment, until he had decided that the moment had lasted long enough. The towering brute turned halfway, until he was able to properly face the Frumentarius standing a few feet away from him. "If you have something to say, speak it."

Gabban had been watching the installation of the Howitzer from afar, leaning against a stack of crates as he enjoyed the open air and the late afternoon sun, drying the blood on his apron with the breeze. The machine was much bigger than he had imagined, fearsome even in its slumber. Despite the still-broken firing mechanism, the frumentarius could feel the excitement surging all throughout the camp, always heightened by sunset as the gun cut a splendid figure against the western sky. 

Destruction beyond imagination. He thought of thunder and cracked earth, and groups of men torn asunder in a matter of seconds. Red fog on the field, and pillars of smoke overhead, no air, no vision, a glimpse of death while you still lived. He looked to the side as if avoiding the stench of simmering flesh. No, he couldn´t admire the thing in the same way the others did, or said they did. Instead, his eyes quickly sought refuge elsewhere. 

Perhaps it happened by chance, but his sights had set upon the other's arms first, following the winding trail of a vein up to their shoulders and collarbone. Lupercus was also a kind of weapon, he mused, but infinitely more beautiful than any stack of rusted metal. Strong, steadfast and handsome, with hands Gabban was sure could rip his spine clean from his body, like tender meat from the bone. 

“Forgive me, my Legate.” Gabban straightened just then, but his gaze never wavered, lest he inadvertently confess to the nature of his thoughts through hints of embarrassment. “I merely lost focus.” 

His expression brightened. “How strange. You’re not wearing your armor.” He arched a brow, feigning surprise over something he had already noticed with pleasure. “Seeing a soldier without his vestments is like meeting him anew– Now I understand why you make so many of the men here nervous.” 

[herprivateswe]

4th (Durham Howitzer?) Battery, Royal Field Artillery.

Royal Field Artillery Drivers, "Wittes, Belgium (France?). May 1918".

[militarymodeller]

Nr.338, The German 10 cm schwere Kanone 18 (10 cm sK 18)

The 10 cm schwere Kanone 18 (10 cm sK 18) was a field gun used by Germany in World War II.

The German army wanted a new 10.5 cm gun as well as 15 cm howitzer which were to share the same carriage. Guns are heavier than howitzers due to the longer barrel.

This also led to the 15 cm sFH 18. As such both weapons had a similar weight and could be carried by a similar carriage. By 1926 Krupp and Rheinmetall had specimen designs, and prototypes were ready by 1930, but was not fielded until 1933–34.

Both Krupp and Rheinmetall competed for the development contract, but the Wehrmacht compromised and selected Krupp's carriage to be mated with Rheinmetall's gun.

[scoobydoodean]

regarding jesse and dean saying they could use him in a fight… do you think maybe dean’s motivations are two fold in the sense that he is thinking about how useful jesse could be but also thinking about being able to protect jesse better if he’s just already with them? somewhat like sam’s initial motivations regarding jack if that makes sense

Context

Sam and Dean definitely wanted to protect Jesse—there's no question about that one. They both burst into Jesse's house after Cas flies away to kill Jesse when Sam and Dean refused to go along with it. Even Cas didn't want to kill Jesse—he just thought it was what was necessary (and Cas's ruthlessness in these sorts of circumstances is also a through line—all the way to the Rosemary's Baby storyline in season 12 where he goes behind Sam and Dean's backs to kill Kelly). But the actual plan to take Jesse with them was born out of an argument with Cas where Sam and Dean were trying to keep Jesse alive while being realistic about the fact that demons would continue hunting him.

When Cas first arrives in the motel and opens with "We should kill Jesse", Sam and Dean let him explain, but then Dean tries to reason Cas toward the solution being, "We should just leave him the hell alone":

DEAN Well, if Jesse's a demonic howitzer, then what the hell's he doing in Nebraska? CASTIEL The demons lost him. They can't find him. But they're looking. DEAN And they lost him because? CASTIEL Because of the child's power. It hides him from both angels and demons. For now. DEAN So he's got, like, a force field around him. Well, that's great. Problem solved.

Cas insists that Jesse is growing stronger because of Lucifer's rise, and something he does will draw the demons attention and he'll be found. This crushes Dean's "Just leave him alone with his parents" angle, and Sam interjects to tell Cas that they aren't killing a child not matter what. Dean backs Sam on this, while pushing a new solution that takes Cas's concerns into account:

Okay. Hey, look, we are not going to kill him. All right? But we can't leave Jesse here either. We know that. So...we take him to Bobby's. He'll know what to do.

Cas objects to this too, saying they have no way to actually get Jesse to come with them to Bobby's, much less stay with them. So Sam pushes another solution, which is to tell Jesse the truth. This does the opposite of placate Cas, and he flies off to kill Jesse without their support.

So Sam and Dean both wanted to protect Jesse. They didn't want to kill him. They tried to compromise with Cas by saying they'd take Jesse to Bobby's where he'd be safe.

Nobody was talking about Jesse actually helping them in a fight until Sam and Dean rushed over to the house, and Dean, who never said he was onboard with telling Jesse the truth, tries to get him to come with them somewhere safe without telling him the truth, because (as he says at the end of the episode) he wishes his own dad had lied to them when they were kids. Jesse's become aware of his own powers though, so what Dean comes up with is that Jesse is a superhero.

DEAN You're a superhero. JESSE I am? DEAN Yeah. Yeah. I mean, who else could turn someone into a toy? You're Superman—minus the cape and the go-go boots. See, my—my partner and I, we work for a secret government agency. It's our job to find kids with special powers. In fact, we're here to take you to a hidden base in South Dakota, where you'll be trained to fight evil. JESSE Like the X-Men? DEAN Exactly like the X-Men. In fact, the, uh, guy we're taking you to—he's even in a wheelchair. You'll be a hero. You'll save lives. You'll get the girl. Sounds like fun, right?

Much of season 4 is about the inevitability of hunting from Sam and Dean's perspectives—that at a certain point, you are in the life too deep to get out. Sam and Dean never had a choice in this life and now it's too late and they have to make the best of it. In season 4, Sam mainly talks about it as something he wouldn't change anyway (until the end) but Dean pretty consistently grieves (4.04, 4.08, 4.12, 4.12, 4.19, 4.21). Jesse is similarly already trapped in the life by the circumstances of his birth and the fact that demons are looking for him.

So what Dean does here is a reflection of his own coping skills with being trapped in hunting when he was a kid. This is a Dabb and Loflin episode, and what Dean does here mirrors Dean's childhood romanticization of hunting according to their previous episode, 4.13 "After School Special", where it's obvious that in order to cope with the weight of John's neglect and the stress of responsibility to the family and being trapped in the life, a young Dean pushes himself to focus on the fact that they're a family of heroes, that they have a sweet setup at the motel with free ice, and being left there for weeks in charge with no curfew is fun and not stressful and soul-crushing at all. Dean talks about a similar narrative from around that age in 2.03 when he describes to Gordon how he embraced the life as a teenager by telling himself he was seeing things other kids his age never got to see, and we later contrast this with "Bad Boys".

Adult Dean's feelings are very different from the feelings of that kid who was just trying to cope. We see this starting in 2.10 and 2.11 when Dean refers to John's last words as "Screaming in his head all day" and says "I wish to god he never opened his mouth" and "Well Dad's an ass! He never should have said anything. I mean, you don't do that, you don't, you don't lay that kind of crap on your kids!" Then at the end of 5.06:

DEAN You know, we destroyed that kid's life by telling him the truth. SAM We didn't have a choice, Dean. DEAN Yeah. You know, I'm starting to get why parents lie to their kids. You want them to believe that the worst thing out there is mixing Pop Rocks and Coke—protect them from the real evil. You want them going to bed feeling safe. If that means lying to them, so be it. The more I think about it...the more I wish Dad had lied to us. SAM Yeah, me too.

Dean wishes John had protected them. He didn't want to be left with the weight of Sam's demonic destiny on his shoulders (that also signified Dean's own potential to become a monster he didn't want to be). So at first, Dean tries to fill Jesse's head with vague ideas that he's a hero and destined for good. Then when Sam tells Jesse the truth, Dean urges Jesse to come with them somewhere safe, where he can train and "you'd be handy in a fight, kid". I don't know—I think it's hard to say whether Dean really meant he'd ask Jesse to fight side by side with them in the apocalypse, and also how far that would go even if they did end up asking Jesse to use his powers to assist them. Like Dean is pretty consistently against involving kids in the life. I do think at the very least, Dean was trying to instill a sense of heroism into Jesse to reinforce that he doesn't have to be evil just because he's half demon and some demons want him to help them kill people. Sam also doesn't object because he also sees Jesse having to come with them as inevitable. After Jesse says "What if I don't want to fight?" Sam tries to talk him through it (he also suggests Jesse has to abandon his parents to protect them). The thing is, Jesse proves all of them wrong. He proves Cas wrong by never doing what he was foretold to do, and he proves Sam and Dean wrong about the inescapability of hunting by flying off to Australia never to be seen again.

[collapsedsquid]

That rate of fire and intensity appears to have been the main cause of the psychological issues plaguing returned troops. For the most part, the temporary fire bases Marines and soldiers used were well away from the frontlines. There were some attacks on those positions, resulting in American deaths, but U.S. troops were for the most part removed from close fighting. However, repeated exposure to shockwaves from artillery fire left many troops feeling unwell. They suffered symptoms similar to that of concussions, and over time developed issues similar to symptoms of PTSD.  The Marines conducted a study of one unit, Fox Battery, 2nd Battalion 10th Marines, to see the impacts of high artillery blasts on their health. The report, released in 2019, said that the Marines were being hurt by the shockwaves from their howitzers. More than half of the battery was diagnosed with Traumatic Brain Injuries. The Marines Corps did not answer New York Times’ questions about who ordered the study. One Army blast researcher the paper spoke to said that repeated exposure to such blasts can scar brain tissue and hurt neural connections.  Those troops affected by their time in Syria and Iraq also struggled with poor response from the military and services. Many were denied care as they were not officially injured. The United States and its partners are still hunting down the remnants of ISIS. However, fighting has shifted from large efforts to retake towns and cities to smaller operations, such as helicopter raids; large artillery operations are no longer as important to coalition strategy. The Army and Marine Corps told the New York Times they are tracking artillery crews’ exposure to such sustained fire to prevent this. However the newspaper noted that Marines in the field don’t report seeing any new preventative measures.  The 2019 report highlighted an ongoing risk to troops, noting that artillery crews firing that frequently could result in troops being taken out of action “faster than combat replacements can be trained to replace them.”

Wonder how those Ukranians are doing

[mariacallous]

Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, recently painted a somber picture of Russia’s war against Ukraine: A positional war teetering on the precipice of a stalemate, slowly tilting in Russia’s favor. Against this backdrop, talk of war fatigue is gaining momentum in Western capitals and the media, with growing calls for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

A year ago, Zaluzhny had underscored the need for specific weapons to achieve a breakthrough in the next Ukrainian counteroffensive. His prerequisites included air defense systems, fighter aircraft, main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, howitzers, and long-range missiles to strike Russian facilities and supply lines well beyond the 50-mile range of previously delivered systems. “I know that I can beat this enemy,” Zaluzhny told the Economist then. “But I need resources!” But Western support, in both types and quantities of weapons, fell significantly short of his appeals.

Western reluctance to promptly furnish Ukraine with the required military equipment in sufficient numbers—exacerbated by ongoing shortages in artillery ammunition—inadvertently afforded Russia the time to strengthen its frontline through extensive construction of fortifications, trenches, and mine fields. Notably, the United States held back on the delivery of Advanced Tactical Missile Systems until very recently, while German reluctance to provide Ukraine with Taurus missiles added another layer of hesitation. The results are evident on the ground: Whereas we cannot know whether greater and faster delivery of weapons would have led to a Ukrainian military breakthrough, we do know that, without it, the result of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the land war has been marginal at best. In the Black Sea, on the other hand, Kyiv has achieved significant recent success.

Doubling down on the narrative that it has thwarted Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Russia has launched attacks in several sectors of the front, including near the city of Avdiivka and town of Vuhledar. While they are exacting a significant toll on Russian lives and military resources—October was the bloodiest month for Russia since February 2022—Russian advances are paying off. The strategic value of Russia’s small territorial wins is questionable, but the benefits in the informational realm are clear: They give many observers the impression that the military initiative is back in Moscow’s hands. Alongside the lackluster Ukrainian counteroffensive, the fear that the tables are turning in Russia’s favor is adding to the war fatigue among Western nations and eliciting calls for negotiations.

The West has indeed reached the limits of its current strategy. In practice, if not in words, this strategy has centered on ensuring Ukraine’s survival without enabling it to achieve a decisive victory. Ukraine’s Western supporters are now at a crossroads.

Some believe that there are only two routes ahead: either the perpetuation of war—with the risk that it tilts in Russia’s favor—or negotiations that lead to some form of territorial compromise. Yet reality in Ukraine—and, above all, in Russia—suggests that the negotiation option is not available. Ukrainians believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions reach beyond the annexation of a few regions and instead extend to the genocidal subjugation and erasure of their country and identity. For Ukrainians, the stakes extend beyond affirming an abstract principle of territorial integrity; their concern is about the lives of their compatriots living under Russian occupation. Framing negotiations around a land-for-peace compromise is untenable for Ukrainians.

Those in the West who believe in negotiations might retort that whether Kyiv desires to negotiate is irrelevant—without Western support, it will have no other choice. But as is often the case in Western discussions about Ukraine, this tends to ignore the other side of the equation: Russia. Those advocating for negotiations assume that Putin will acknowledge that he cannot achieve an outright victory and settle for the territorial gains he has made so far. However, the idea that Putin will genuinely embrace negotiations and seek an end to the war overlooks the strategic role the war itself has gained in sustaining his grip on power, especially as his narrative of the war has evolved over the last two years. The reconfiguration of the war in Russian propaganda, from a preventive attack against supposed Ukrainian Nazis to a patriotic war to defend the Russian homeland against attack by the collective West, means that the show must go on.

Putin’s need for a large-scale war arose between 2018 and 2020, when the political momentum from the annexation of Crimea dwindled and Russia grappled with a myriad of domestic challenges. The 2018 pension reforms sparked street protests and a sharp decline in Putin’s approval ratings. The years 2019 and 2020 were marked by widespread anti-government protests in Moscow and the Khabarovsk Krai region. The political and social environment, already tense, was further strained by the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic repercussions. The poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and his subsequent imprisonment, coupled with restrictions on civil liberties through legislation that curtailed supposed foreign agents and undesired organizations, added to the tension. It is in this tumultuous period that Putin released his infamous article on the national unity of Russians and Ukrainians, which proved to be the ideological and argumentative prelude to war. Bringing the war to an end now would mean having to address not only a host of festering issues, but also fresh problems arising domestically from Western sanctions and Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine. Putin has nothing to gain from any of this.

The choice facing the West is not between war and compromise but between defeat and victory. The trajectory the West is on—maintaining current levels of support or perhaps scaling them back while pushing for negotiations—raises the chances of defeat. Putin is banking on this: At the heart of his theory of victory lies his conviction that Russia’s staying power in the war is greater than the West’s (and, by extension, Ukraine’s). Unlike the West’s muddled hope for compromise, Putin’s strategy has a clear logic.

At the current crossroads, Ukraine’s Western supporters should ask themselves: What are the costs of a step change to enable Ukraine’s victory relative to the costs of maintaining the status quo or scaling back support leading to Ukraine’s defeat? Such a defeat, to be clear, would not be limited to Ukraine. A victorious Russia would not limit itself to occupying the five annexed regions and, through them, politically influencing or controlling Kyiv. While some may think that a militarily and economically degraded Russia no longer poses an existential threat to Poland or the Baltic states, a victorious Russia would certainly pose such threat to Moldova. No one can know what could happen next—or after a vindicated Russia rearms. No reasonable European country can afford to take that bet, and no reasonable U.S. administration should take that bet either.

Of course, ensuring Ukraine’s victory comes with costs, too. The economic cost of sustaining Ukraine to victory—involving not only weapons but also many other forms of aid—is significant, especially in the context of other challenges faced by the West in the Middle East and elsewhere. A victorious Ukraine emerging from years of war would pose significant challenges, and its integration in Euro-Atlantic structures would not be smooth. But surely the West would much rather deal with these problems than the much more existential ones that would result from Ukraine’s defeat.