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usafphantom2 · 9 months ago

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B-2 Stealth Bomber Demoes QUICKSINK Low Cost Maritime Strike Capability During RIMPAC 2024

The U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit carried out a QUICKSINK demonstration during the second SINKEX (Sinking Exercise) of RIMPAC 2024. This marks the very first time a B-2 Spirit has been publicly reported to test this anti-ship capability.

David Cenciotti

B-2 QUICKSINK

File photo of a B-2 Spirit (Image credit: Howard German / The Aviationist)

RIMPAC 2024, the 29th in the series since 1971, sees the involvement of 29 nations, 40 surface ships, three submarines, 14 national land forces, over 150 aircraft, and 25,000 personnel. During the drills, two long-planned live-fire sinking exercises (SINKEXs) led to the sinking of two decommissioned ships: USS Dubuque (LPD 8), sunk on July 11, 2024; and the USS Tarawa (LHA 1), sunk on July 19. Both were sunk in waters 15,000 feet deep, located over 50 nautical miles off the northern coast of Kauai, Hawaii.

SINKEXs are training exercises in which decommissioned naval vessels are used as targets. These exercises allow participating forces to practice and demonstrate their capabilities in live-fire scenarios providing a unique and realistic training environment that cannot be replicated through simulations or other training methods.

RIMPAC 2024’s SINKEXs allowed units from Australia, Malaysia, the Netherlands, South Korea, and various U.S. military branches, including the Air Force, Army, and Navy, to enhance their skills and tactics as well as validate targeting, and live firing capabilities against surface ships at sea. They also helped improve the ability of partner nations to plan, communicate, and execute complex maritime operations, including precision and long-range strikes.

LRASM

During the sinking of the ex-Tarawa, a U.S. Navy F/A-18F Super Hornet deployed a Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM). This advanced, stealthy cruise missile offers multi-service, multi-platform, and multi-mission capabilities for offensive anti-surface warfare and is currently deployed from U.S. Navy F/A-18 and U.S. Air Force B-1B aircraft.

The AGM-158C LRASM, based on the AGM-158B Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile – Extended Range (JASSM-ER), is the new low-observable anti-ship cruise missile developed by DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) for the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy. NAVAIR describes the weapon as a defined near-term solution for the Offensive Anti-Surface Warfare (OASuW) air-launch capability gap that will provide flexible, long-range, advanced, anti-surface capability against high-threat maritime targets.

QUICKSINK

Remarkably, in a collaborative effort with the U.S. Navy, a U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit stealth bomber also took part in the second SINKEX, demonstrating a low-cost, air-delivered method for neutralizing surface vessels using the QUICKSINK. Funded by the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, the QUICKSINK experiment aims to provide cost-effective solutions to quickly neutralize maritime threats over vast ocean areas, showcasing the flexibility of the joint force.

The Quicksink initiative, in collaboration with the U.S. Navy, is designed to offer innovative solutions for swiftly neutralizing stationary or moving maritime targets at a low cost, showcasing the adaptability of joint military operations for future combat scenarios. “Quicksink is distinctive as it brings new capabilities to both current and future Department of Defense weapon systems, offering combatant commanders and national leaders fresh methods to counter maritime threats,” explained Kirk Herzog, the program manager at the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL).

Traditionally, enemy ships are targeted using submarine-launched heavyweight torpedoes, which, while effective, come with high costs and limited deployment capabilities among naval assets. “Heavyweight torpedoes are efficient at sinking large ships but are expensive and deployed by a limited number of naval platforms,” stated Maj. Andrew Swanson, division chief of Advanced Programs at the 85th Test and Evaluation Squadron. “Quicksink provides a cost-effective and agile alternative that could be used by a majority of Air Force combat aircraft, thereby expanding the options available to combatant commanders and warfighters.”

Regarding weapon guidance, the QUICKSINK kit combines a GBU-31/B Joint Direct Attack Munition’s existing GPS-assisted inertial navigation system (INS) guidance in the tail with a new radar seeker installed on the nose combined with an IIR (Imaging Infra-Red) camera mounted in a fairing on the side. When released, the bomb uses the standard JDAM kit to glide to the target area and the seeker/camera to lock on the ship. Once lock on is achieved, the guidance system directs the bomb to detonate near the hull below the waterline.

Previous QUICKSINK demonstrations in 2021 and 2022 featured F-15E Strike Eagles deploying modified 2,000-pound GBU-31 JDAMs. This marks the very first time a B-2 Spirit has been publicly reported to test this anti-ship capability. Considering a B-2 can carry up to 16 GBU-31 JDAMs, this highlights the significant anti-surface firepower a single stealth bomber can bring to a maritime conflict scenario.

Quicksink

F-15E Strike Eagle at Eglin Air Force Base, Fla. with modified 2,000-pound GBU-31 Joint Direct Attack Munitions as part of the second test in the QUICKSINK Joint Capability Technology Demonstration on April 28, 2022. (U.S. Air Force photo / 1st Lt Lindsey Heflin)

SINKEXs

“Sinking exercises allow us to hone our skills, learn from one another, and gain real-world experience,” stated U.S. Navy Vice Adm. John Wade, the RIMPAC 2024 Combined Task Force Commander in a public statement. “These drills demonstrate our commitment to maintaining a safe and open Indo-Pacific region.”

Ships used in SINKEXs, known as hulks, are prepared in strict compliance with Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations under a general permit the Navy holds pursuant to the Marine Protection, Research, and Sanctuaries Act. Each SINKEX requires the hulk to sink in water at least 6,000 feet deep and more than 50 nautical miles from land.

In line with EPA guidelines, before a SINKEX, the Navy thoroughly cleans the hulk, removing all materials that could harm the marine environment, including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), petroleum, trash, and other hazardous materials. The cleaning process is documented and reported to the EPA before and after the SINKEX.

Royal Netherlands Navy De Zeven Provinciën-class frigate HNLMS Tromp (F803) fires a Harpoon missile during a long-planned live fire sinking exercise as part of Exercise Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) 2024. (Royal Netherlands Navy photo by Cristian Schrik)

SINKEXs are conducted only after the area is surveyed to ensure no people, marine vessels, aircraft, or marine species are present. These exercises comply with the National Environmental Policy Act and are executed following permits and authorizations under the Marine Mammal Protection Act, Endangered Species Act, and Marine Protection, Research, and Sanctuaries Act.

The ex-Dubuque, an Austin-class amphibious transport dock, was commissioned on September 1, 1967, and served in Vietnam, Operation Desert Shield, and other missions before being decommissioned in June 2011. The ex-Tarawa, the lead amphibious assault ship of its class, was commissioned on May 29, 1976, participated in numerous operations including Desert Shield and Iraqi Freedom, and was decommissioned in March 2009.

This year marks the second time a Tarawa-class ship has been used for a SINKEX, following the sinking of the ex-USS Belleau Wood (LHA 3) during RIMPAC 2006.

H/T Ryan Chan for the heads up!

About David Cenciotti

David Cenciotti is a journalist based in Rome, Italy. He is the Founder and Editor of “The Aviationist”, one of the world’s most famous and read military aviation blogs. Since 1996, he has written for major worldwide magazines, including Air Forces Monthly, Combat Aircraft, and many others, covering aviation, defense, war, industry, intelligence, crime and cyberwar. He has reported from the U.S., Europe, Australia and Syria, and flown several combat planes with different air forces. He is a former 2nd Lt. of the Italian Air Force, a private pilot and a graduate in Computer Engineering. He has written five books and contributed to many more ones.

@TheAviationist.com

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prettyboysdontlookatexplosions · 2 months ago

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this week the headline is that i was: Sick. i actually got off to a very solid start to the week on monday, doing all my little habits, finishing my workout program, getting some work done, & going to a friend’s birthday; then tuesday i woke up with what by midday i could no longer reasonably hope was just some morning dryness in my throat and the past six days have been spent resting it off. my symptoms peaked at moderate, and i always feel like there should be a stronger relation between the severity of symptoms and the duration of a cold than there is, but alas. also, last spring i got my hopes up about being “i mean, like, basically almost all better” and my cold that was almost gone returned and then became an absolutelt heinous sinus infection so i am being careful with myself thus time out. tomorrow i will resume normal human activity but i will probably give returning to working out another few days and then, sigh, probably do a couple “build-up” days over a week or two to see if i can mitigate the soreness i always get after a break or at least keep it from interrupting my schedule once i pick up a new 10-week program.

i do feel very lucky that the symptoms waited until tuesday to start because that did mean that after starting working out with this fitfluencer in january 2023, i was finally, finally able to actually complete a program in the time it was written for. i think this little victory is owed to a few things: first, constant little trial and error to figure out the shape of a routine that works for me in many areas of my life so that i didn’t have any weeks i was just too busy and frazzled to get five workouts in; second, probably, to some extent my body just finally adjusting to the demand; third, probably, being still imperfect but more consistent about foam rolling & stretching; and fourth, this sounds weird but i actually believe it, picking up a cottage cheese before bed habit. i did this because when i started this program (for the second time) i noticed that i was going to bed having eaten overall enough (including Getting My Protein In) but still waking up hungry enough that i could tell it had disrupted my sleep (sometimes because i was waking up ravenous at like 3 in the morning) and i remembered a reddit tip i’d once read that came up in a post about sleep on a calorie deficit but which i thought might also apply to a person not trying to cut calories but doing exercise in a way that is intended to cause physical changes in the sense of adding muscle slowly over time… something about the combo of casein, a slow digesting protein, & fat is supposed to keep you full longer. how scientific is any of this? who fucking knows. but my inability to stay asleep went away when i started doing this.

i am also lucky that my symptoms for the most part were not so bad that i couldn’t read. i mean i still spent a lot of time dicking around on the internet because that’s what being sick is for. but i did get to finish some books :)

one reading related quandary i am currently facing is there are so many books i want to read for the first time now that i am reading books again but also i started reading house of mirth as a bedtime read and then was like… actually i’m too interested in rereading this to read it 3 pages at a time while falling asleep. i really do want to hit 50 books and have them be 50 new books but there are a couple things i’ve been interested in rereading for ages… partly because part of what i’m trying to learn to do this year is to more actively read as a writer and think more seriously about what it is i do and do not like in fiction writing as i slowly and nervously and mostly mentally futz around with the concept of learning to write it myself. and it does strike me that in addition to new books (which may or may not be good) it would probably be fruitful to read the books that have lingered positively in my memory which i read as a young and unserious reader, such as the house of mirth. (i can’t really make this argument for tender is the night, because i’ve read it like three times including in adulthood, and part of its hold on me is i find it just about impossible to see the seams, so to speak… but i do in fact want to reread that one too, lol.) perhaps i will allow myself one reread a month assuming that i am otherwise progressing on schedule. this also means i have not been good about bedtime book and i confess i am not sure where to turn on that front… perhaps this is where i try to make peace with poetry?

this week i have some fun stuff planned & am also going to try to work more because i am feeling anxious about (1) money and (2) prep work i’ll have to do in the future, and putting in more hours than i strictly need to will allay at least one of those concerns somewhat. upcoming books are angela carter’s the bloody chamber (stories), toni morrison’s playing in the dark (nonfiction), & sally rooney’s conversations with friends (novel), and as much as i loved love & theft and have already begun to uncover more than i anticipated left in me from the turn of the screw i confess my brain is a little relieved to take a break from marxist cultural criticism & the sentences of henry james. i kinda wanna aim to actually finish this one (1) yellowjackets fic and to do it by season’s end because my interest in the show is already close to extinguished but i like this little story, but we’ll see. next weekend we shall lose some sleep but in return daylight will have been saved!

#isabel 2k25 #bedtime blogging

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kevrocksicehouse · 2 months ago

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The Substance.

D: Coralie Fargeat.

Nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Moore), Best Original Screenplay, and Makeup and Hairstyling.

The Substance is an underpopulated, underwritten overlong and over directed body horror film that might have been a good ten-page EC comics story. Demi Moore plays Elizabeth Sparkle, a former Oscar-winning (for what?) star who, as she got older, could only get work hosting a TV exercise program. When, at 50 she ages out of THAT (the film takes the view that the audience for daytime workout shows is men looking for hot young chicks) she is contacted by a shadowy organization looking to sell her The Substance, a drug treatment that promises a “younger, more beautiful, more perfect version of yourself.” She signs up for it (in the time-honored manner of horror movie heroes making stupid decisions) and “Sue,” a gorgeous twentyish woman (Margaret Qualley) emerges from a slit on her back. Both women are given certain rules that one of them will be unconscious while the other takes her place, they will have to regularly take a “stabilizing fluid,” and never eat after midnight (Wait, that’s Gremlins) or they will “deteriorate.” And, since Sue, who takes over Elizabeth’s show (this is looking worse for Liz by the minute) thinks rules are made to be broken, for the next hour or so we get to see Demi Moore’s body go through nightmarish decay as the two actresses enact a Grand Guignol version of All About Eve that eventually transforms both of them into increasingly mutating monstrosities.

This could be fun to watch in a Cronenberg-ish way except that it takes fooooreever, there are really only three characters in the movie (Dennis Quaid as a sexist and oleaginous TV producer who is filmed like Baz Luhrmann couldn’t stop saying “More Oil”), and the cobweb-thin script allows neither Moore nor Qualley to make their characters more than one-note ciphers. There’s nothing to Elizabeth but fear of aging, nothing to Sue but naked ambition and neither actress (nor their director) even suggest either of the characters share a consciousness. It becomes the story of how one stupid woman becomes two stupid women and then a grotesquerie of a woman and somehow Fargeat presents it as a feminist fable. Can a woman be a misogynist?

#the substance #coralie fargeat #demi moore #margaret qualley #kevrock #review #oscar

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microlearninplatform · 2 months ago

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Overcoming the Forgetting Curve with Microlearning

Learners forget most of what they have learned within six months of training. This is one of the primary reasons why many training programs fail to deliver a high return on investment. Organizations invest significant time and resources into training their employees, only to realize that the knowledge gained fades away too quickly.

Why does this happen? The answer lies in a fundamental concept of memory retention known as the forgetting curve. This theory, introduced by Hermann Ebbinghaus in the 1870s, explains how human memory decays over time unless information is reinforced through repetition and recall.

To combat this natural decline in memory retention, training programs must adopt a strategic approach that ensures learning is retained and applied effectively. One of the most powerful solutions to this challenge is microlearning. By delivering content in bite-sized, focused lessons with built-in reinforcement mechanisms, microlearning ensures that knowledge stays fresh and accessible.

Understanding the Forgetting Curve

Hermann Ebbinghaus conducted extensive research on memory and discovered that people tend to forget newly learned information rapidly. His experiments revealed a steep decline in memory retention, with significant knowledge loss occurring within hours or days of learning.

The key findings of his forgetting curve theory include:

Without reinforcement, people forget nearly 50 percent of what they learn within an hour.

Within 24 hours, retention drops to approximately 70 percent.

After a week, most learners retain only about 20 to 30 percent of the original information.

By six months, only a small fraction of the knowledge remains unless active recall and reinforcement strategies are applied.

This rapid decay in memory can severely impact employee performance and training effectiveness. Organizations that fail to address this challenge often find themselves re-training employees or dealing with costly errors resulting from forgotten knowledge.

The Role of Repetition and Recall in Learning

To counteract the forgetting curve, learners must engage in regular repetition and recall of key concepts. This means reviewing information at strategic intervals and actively retrieving knowledge from memory.

Two primary techniques that enhance learning retention include:

Spaced Repetition

Spaced repetition involves presenting information multiple times over an extended period, with increasing intervals between each review session. Instead of cramming all training content in a single session, spaced repetition ensures that knowledge is reinforced at optimal times to strengthen memory.

Retrieval Practice

Retrieval practice encourages learners to actively recall information rather than passively reviewing it. By prompting learners to retrieve knowledge from memory through quizzes, exercises, and reflection questions, this technique strengthens neural connections and improves long-term retention.

Combining spaced repetition with retrieval practice creates a powerful learning experience that significantly reduces memory decay and enhances the application of knowledge.

How Microlearning Addresses the Forgetting Curve

Microlearning is a training approach that delivers content in short, focused modules designed to fit into a learner’s workflow. These lessons typically last between three to five minutes and focus on specific learning objectives.

Microlearning naturally aligns with the principles of spaced repetition and retrieval practice, making it an effective strategy for combating the forgetting curve. Here is how microlearning ensures knowledge retention and application:

1. Short and Focused Learning Sessions

Traditional training sessions are often lengthy and overwhelming, leading to cognitive overload. Microlearning breaks down complex topics into digestible chunks, allowing learners to absorb information more effectively. Since each module focuses on a single concept, learners can concentrate on mastering one idea at a time before moving on to the next.

2. Reinforcement Through Spaced Learning

Microlearning enables organizations to schedule learning reinforcement at optimal intervals. Instead of delivering training content all at once, microlearning modules can be spaced out over weeks or months. This ensures that learners revisit key concepts at the right time, preventing memory decay.

For example, an employee who completes a microlearning lesson today may receive a follow-up quiz in three days, another knowledge check in a week, and a refresher module after a month. This structured reinforcement strengthens retention and ensures that knowledge remains accessible when needed.

3. Active Engagement Through Interactive Elements

Microlearning lessons often incorporate interactive elements such as quizzes, simulations, and real-world scenarios. These elements encourage active participation and retrieval practice, helping learners reinforce their understanding through engagement.

Instead of passively consuming information, learners are required to apply their knowledge by answering questions, solving problems, or completing activities. This hands-on approach strengthens memory and increases the likelihood of information recall in real-world situations.

4. Flexibility and Accessibility

One of the biggest advantages of microlearning is its flexibility. Employees can access training content anytime, anywhere, and on any device. Whether they are at their desk, commuting, or taking a short break, microlearning allows them to engage with training materials at their convenience.

This flexibility ensures that learning fits seamlessly into a learner’s schedule, making it easier to revisit key concepts and reinforce knowledge over time. Instead of dedicating long hours to traditional training sessions, employees can engage in short, targeted learning bursts that align with their workflow.

5. Personalized Learning Paths

Microlearning platforms can leverage artificial intelligence and data analytics to personalize learning experiences based on individual needs. By tracking learner progress and performance, these platforms can identify knowledge gaps and deliver customized reinforcement exercises.

For instance, if an employee struggles with a particular concept, the system can recommend additional microlearning modules or targeted quizzes to strengthen their understanding. This adaptive learning approach ensures that each learner receives the right content at the right time, optimizing retention and performance.

6. Application-Based Learning

Microlearning goes beyond theory by emphasizing practical application. Lessons are designed to be relevant to real-world scenarios, allowing learners to immediately apply what they have learned.

For example, a customer service representative undergoing microlearning training may complete a short module on handling difficult customers, followed by a role-playing simulation. This hands-on approach helps reinforce learning and builds confidence in applying skills in actual work situations.

Real-World Example of Microlearning in Action

Consider an organization implementing microlearning for sales training. Instead of conducting a one-time, intensive training session, the company designs a microlearning program that includes:

A short video explaining key product features

A quiz reinforcing important details

A real-world scenario simulation to test application skills

Follow-up reinforcement quizzes sent at strategic intervals

A refresher module one month later to strengthen retention

By structuring the training in this way, the company ensures that employees not only learn but also retain and apply their knowledge effectively. The result is improved sales performance, higher customer satisfaction, and a greater return on investment in training.

Conclusion

The forgetting curve is a real challenge that impacts the effectiveness of training programs. However, organizations can overcome this challenge by leveraging microlearning strategies that emphasize repetition, recall, and engagement.

By breaking down training content into small, manageable lessons and reinforcing learning at optimal intervals, microlearning ensures that knowledge retention is maximized. Through active participation, flexible access, and personalized learning paths, employees stay engaged, retain more information, and apply their skills effectively.

For organizations looking to boost training ROI and enhance workforce performance, microlearning is the key to long-term knowledge retention and success.

#spaced repetition #spaced repetition system #what is spaced repetition #spaced repetition learning #how to do spaced repetition #how to use spaced repetition #spaced repetition technique #active recall #what is active recall #active recall method #spacing effect #repetitive learning technique #spaced repetition flashcards #spaced repetition software #spaced repetition app #best spaced repetition app

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frociaggine · 1 year ago

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Jockposting :) Lifting progress under the cut 💪

the tldr is that i a couple of months I put 20kg on my deadlift, 15kg on my squat, and I am SO close to benching 35kg for reps I can taste it. If I was in a frame of mind to optimise for recovery and nutrition I'd be unstoppable but as it is I'm just really feelin' myself

I'm on week 9 of GZCLP, a reddit-bro sorta program that's IME extremely effective. Once again, I maintain that reddit is phenomenal for solid fitness knowledge

It's a linear progression program, meaning that you increase the weight on the bar week by week, and it's ideal for novices who're still in the "beginner's gain" stage of weightlifting. It's also great if you're returning to structured programming lifting after a break (me!) but I probably won't keep at it after the first 12-week cycle is over, there's only so much linear increase I can aspire to.

Programming: GZCLP is 4x week, built around big compound lifts in the "strength" range (low reps, higher weights). They're complemented by a medium-rage amount of reps of a different compound lift than the one you're practising that day. So basically, you do big lifts twice a week, but at a different weight/range (called Tier 1 and Tier 2 to tell them apart). Every session also includes isolation exercises in the hypertrophy range, starting at 3x15+.

Jargon: that + symbol means that the last set is meant to be "as many reps as possible" or AMRAP. So if I'm doing 3x5+ squats, I'd do 5 reps for my first and second set, then try to aim for 6 or 7 in my last set.

Progression: You add weight every week to each compound lift; if you fail, the rep scheme changes keeping the volume the same.

T1 (main lifts) go from 3x5+ >>> 4x4+ >>> 5x3+

T2 (medium range reps for compound lifts) start at 3x10 >>> 3x8 >>> 3x6

T3 (back work and accessories) are 3x15+, only progressing when the AMRAP set gets to 25.

The T2 lifts especially are brutal. Because they go up every week but the amount of volume is A Lot. Doing sets of 10 reps with heavy-ish squats or deadlifts is extremely demanding.

Sessions! Basically, each week looks like this

Day 1: Squats (T1) + Bench press (T2) + Back work and leg accessories (T3)

Day 2: Overhead barbell press (T1) + Deadlift (T2) + Back work and upper body accessories (T3)

Day 3: Bench press (T1) + Squats (T2) + Back Work and upper body and core accessories (T3)

Day 4: Deadlift (T1) + Overhead bar press (T2) + Hip thrusts (T2) + Back work and core accessories (T3)

I start every session with dynamic stretching AND core engagement exercises (deadbug, planks, renegade row, suitcase carries) and usually end with an abs + kettlebell swing circuit. KB swings are SUPER FUN, btw. I do them every minute on the minute with a timer, starting with 5 swings then working my way up to 12-15 reps on the minute before I go up in weight. Currently I'm using a20kg (44 lbs) kettlebell.

💪 Weight on the bar! ✨

The whole point of this post was to blather about my lifting numbers so here we go. I started 9 weeks ago a bit conservatively, which imo is better than starting too heavy and going up too fast. I've failed every lift except squats, and that's only because I'm not consistently breaking parallel like I want to — a goal for my next training cycle is to work on lower body flexibility, go lighter on squats and with better form. This cycle is mainly to get more weight on that bar.

Squat

T1: 37.5kg >>> 52.5kg (116 lbs) for 3 sets of 5 reps

T2: 32.5kg to 43.5kg (96lbs) for sets of 10 reps

Overhead press

I failed multiple times here! Why is it so hard to build stronk shoulders, I ask you

T1: 17kg to 22.5kg (50 lbs) for 4 sets of 4 reps

T2: 12kg to 18kg (40 lbs) for sets of 6 reps

Bench Press

Veeeery proud of how this one is going

T1: 25kg to 33.5kg (74 lbs) for 5 sets of 3 reps

T2: 20 kg to 30kg (66 lbs) for 3 sets of 8 reps. Veeery proud of my progress on this one.

Deadlift

Bit frustrated because DLs used to be my strongest lift and I feel like I should be further ahead but that posterior chain needs nurturing

T1: 43kg to 62.5 (134 lbs) for 5 sets of 3 reps

T2: 33kg to 53.5 (118) for 3 sets of 10 reps

What's next?

3 more weeks of GZCLP then we shall see! I'm thinking an intermediate bench program + less volume on lower-body lifts, especially since I'm going to get more serious about half marathon training next month.

#jockposting #exercise #this is for accountability but also for my fellox flexin lesbians of tumblr dot com #elle.txt

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nicklloydnow · 11 months ago

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“Because, you see, a sociopath can help a psychopath.”*

“As a presidential candidate, Trump has threatened to quit NATO unless European allies contribute more, and should he carry it out Europe may decide to go it alone on defense, the game suggests. "A US policy of frustrating NATO has the potential to cause the alliance to collapse, with the EU as a candidate for eventually replacing NATO's ultimate function — defending Europe from Russia," wrote Finley Grimble, the British defense expert who designed and ran the game.

The US doesn't have to withdraw from NATO to imperil the 75-year-old alliance. Technically, the US is barred from leaving NATO after Congress voted in 2023 to prohibit withdrawal without congressional approval.

But the game showed how Trump — the presumptive Republican presidential nominee who said on the campaign trail that he'd encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" with NATO allies who spend too little on their militaries — could undermine NATO simply by doing as little as possible to support the alliance. "What Donald Trump can do is just really hollow out what NATO does," Grimble told Business Insider. "He doesn't need to leave NATO to ruin it. He can ruin it from within."

Grimble, who has conducted wargames for the British government, conceived of this game after claims by former US National Security Adviser John Bolton that he talked then-President Trump out of withdrawing from NATO in 2018. He designed a tabletop simulation where the players — mostly British specialists in defense, intelligence and foreign policy — assumed the role of leaders of the 32 NATO nations, plus Ukraine and Russia; China was played by the umpires. The US was played by an American who "was trying to enter into the psyche of Trump, which was no easy task," Grimble recalled.

(…)

It is the first domino to fall. Trump then drastically reduces US participation in NATO, including redeployment of 50 percent of American military assets in Europe, where more than 100,000 US troops are based, to the Indo-Pacific theater. The Trump administration also institutes a new policy called "dormancy." This includes a variety of go-slow tactics, such as less US participation in NATO exercises. A particularly damaging move is to bar the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) — the second-highest military position in NATO, and always a US officer — from acting without prior consultation with Washington.

"Ultimately, SACEUR is answerable to the president of the United States," said Grimble. "So he [SACEUR] can start slowing things down, or prevent things from happening. The US can just take the funding from NATO programs and they will collapse."

(…)

NATO was created four years after the end of World War II in an attempt to avoid the failures of the interwar years. American security guarantees have precluded European powers from re-arming in exchange for the greater expenses borne by the US. But with this US security umbrella suddenly diminishing in the game, France and Germany call for the European Union to take over from NATO. This angers Poland, which saw this as an attempt by the French to kick the US out and to have France become the top military power in Europe.

(…)

Meanwhile, with its campaign in Ukraine stalemated, Russia mulls invading the Baltic States — which are NATO members — to take advantage of NATO disunity and perhaps split the alliance over willingness to risk war with Moscow. But the Russian player ultimately decides that Russia doesn't have the resources to fight Ukraine and occupy the Baltics — and invading NATO territory just might bring America back into the alliance.

However, fictional Moscow does launch new offensives in Ukraine. Bereft of US support — which Europe is unable to compensate for — Ukraine feels compelled to sign a peace that cedes eastern Ukraine to Russia and installs a pro-Russian government in Kyiv. Europe faces another problem: fear that Russia might attack NATO is scaring off domestic and international investors, causing European economies to stumble.

By the end of the game, the effects of a US pullback from NATO are global. China realizes that the US has really shifted its focus from Europe to the Pacific, which deters Beijing from invading Taiwan. Yet this doesn't reassure Japan, Australia and South Korea — US allies whose forces and bases are essential to efforts to counter China — which worry that Trump might change his mind and abandon them too. Iran becomes emboldened to assert its power in the Middle East, which spurs an arms race with Saudi Arabia.

All of which left the British frustrated. The UK has traditionally backed a transatlantic, America-Europe alliance rather than a purely European defense bloc. Yet in the game, it could neither persuade Trump to ease his demands, nor the European NATO members to spend more on defense. "The British felt, 'for God's sakes, Trump, give the Europeans some time,'" Grimble said. "But also, 'Europeans, please do something. Let's all come to an accord and keep NATO alive.'"

Wargaming experts always caution that games shouldn't be treated as predictors of the future, but only as experiments to explore possibilities. Nonetheless, this wargame seemed to confirm the worst fears of critics who believe Trump could destroy NATO and make Europe vulnerable to attack.

"The US had reduced its resourcing of the NATO deterrence and defense missions, meaning NATO did not have credible warfighting plans ready to deal with a Russian invasion," said Grimble. "The whole thing had become dysfunctional. It certainly wasn't in any position to coherently defend against Russia at the end of the game."

Yet at the same time, there was a genuine desire to keep NATO alive. "Many NATO members — except for France mainly — thought post-Trump it could be salvageable," Grimble said. "So it was necessary to keep the US in, keep it together, and rebuild later."”

“Last month, NATO, the world’s most successful military alliance, celebrated its 75th anniversary. Some fear that it may have been its last anniversary with the United States playing a leading role. Former U.S. President Donald Trump still views the alliance as obsolete. If reelected, he says he would encourage Russian leaders to do “whatever the hell they want” to member states that do not pay what he considers to be enough for defense. A second Trump presidency could have dire implications for European security.

Trump’s defenders argue that he is bluffing to pressure Europe into spending more on defense. But former U.S. officials who worked closely with Trump on NATO during his tenure, including one of us (Hooker), are convinced he will withdraw from the alliance if he is reelected. Trump hugely resents the more moderate advisers who kept him in check during his first term. If he reaches the White House in 2025, the guardrails will be off.

The U.S. Congress is concerned, too. It recently enacted legislation to prohibit a president from withdrawing from NATO unless Congress approves, either by a two-thirds vote in the Senate or an act of both houses of Congress. But Trump could circumvent this prohibition. He has already raised doubts about his willingness to honor NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause. By withholding funding, recalling U.S. troops and commanders from Europe, and blocking important decisions in the North Atlantic Council (NATO’s top deliberative body), Trump could dramatically weaken the alliance without formally leaving it. Even if he does not withdraw American support completely, Trump’s current position on NATO and his disinterest in supporting Ukraine, if adopted as national policy, would shatter European confidence in American leadership and military resolve.

EUROPE, ABANDONED

If Trump is reelected and follows through on his anti-NATO instincts, the first casualty would be Ukraine. Trump has opposed additional military aid to Kyiv and continues to fawn over Russian President Vladimir Putin. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is already trying to Trump-proof aid to Ukraine by coordinating it under the aegis of the alliance rather than the U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group. Should the United States weaken or terminate its defense commitment to Europe under Trump, European countries would feel more vulnerable and may become increasingly reluctant to send Ukraine their own vital military supplies. With dramatic aid cuts, Kyiv could be forced to negotiate an unfavorable agreement with Moscow that would leave Ukraine a rump state militarily and economically vulnerable to Russia. Should Ukraine’s defenses collapse altogether, brutal repression and forced Russification await some 38 million people.

The disastrous consequences would only start there. A deflated NATO would struggle to mount an effective conventional deterrent against further Russian aggression. Russia is now on a war footing, spending six percent of its GDP on defense, and its authoritarian leader is committed to an ultranationalistic mission to consolidate his rule over what he calls the “Russian world,” an unspecified geographic space that extends well beyond his country’s internationally recognized borders. Moscow could reconstitute its armed forces relatively quickly. After subjugating all of Ukraine, Putin would probably focus on the Baltic states—NATO members covered by the alliance’s security umbrella but claimed as historic Russian lands by Putin. Should NATO’s conventional deterrence be weakened by the withdrawal of U.S. support, Russia would only be tempted to act more brazenly.

(…)

Should the United States abandon NATO, the erosion of nuclear deterrence would severely compound Europe’s conventional deterrence problem. Nuclear weapons underpin the United States’ commitment to defend its allies and its nuclear capabilities form the bedrock of NATO’s capacity for deterrence. Should Trump close the American nuclear umbrella, Europe would have to rely on less than 600 British and French strategic nuclear warheads, a fraction of Russia’s total force of over 5,000 strategic and tactical nuclear warheads. Since Europe has no tactical nuclear weapons, it can hope to deter a Russian tactical nuclear attack only by threatening escalation to the strategic level, a move that Moscow may not find credible. In an attempt to scare Europeans away from backing Ukraine, Russia has on many occasions hinted it might use tactical nuclear weapons. Unlike the United States, France and the United Kingdom have not extended their nuclear deterrent to protect their allies. Should Washington leave Europe to fend for itself, Moscow might calculate that it could successfully resort to nuclear blackmail to capture the territory of NATO member states.

Without U.S. leadership in NATO, cohesion and unity among members would be difficult to maintain. It often requires a strong American voice to bring disparate member states to a consensus. Since NATO’s founding, a U.S. general officer has led the organization’s command structure, overseeing the military activities of all NATO member states. It is doubtful that any other country in the alliance could play this role.

NATO without the United States might limp along, but it is more likely that the alliance would collapse altogether. The European Union is not in a position to take NATO’s place any time soon, as its military capabilities are limited and more capable of managing regional crises than fighting major wars. Even if a rump NATO survives without strong American involvement, the challenges of divided leadership, inadequate deterrence capabilities, and an assertive adversary would heighten the risk of war with Russia, a major power bent on overturning the liberal international order.

THE FALLOUT

The damage would not be limited to Europe. If Trump wants to withdraw from NATO to punish allies for their inadequate defense spending, why would the United States maintain its commitments to its Asian allies, many of whom currently spend even less than NATO countries? For now, the defense ties between the United States and its allies in Asia, such as Australia, Japan, and South Korea, are growing stronger in the face of Chinese provocations. But a lack of confidence in U.S. commitments may well lead some of these countries to pursue nuclear weapons to offset China’s and North Korea’s nuclear advantages, undercutting the fragile stability that has prevailed in the region for decades. The withering of U.S. global leadership would also have profoundly negative consequences in the Middle East, where U.S. forces and U.S.-led coalitions are needed to deal with terrorist threats.

The United States’ economy might also suffer. Should a breakdown of deterrence trigger a general war with Russia or China, the economic costs would be staggering. Just a few Houthi fighters in Yemen have been able to disrupt global shipping through their attacks in the Red Sea. Imagine the consequences of a war among major powers. Moreover, trade ties often follow security ties. Last year, two-way transatlantic trade in goods topped $1.2 trillion. The United States has about $4 trillion invested in European industry. Some five million Americans work in European-owned industries. The United States has a huge economic stake in maintaining a peaceful Europe.

The United States has been here before. Before both world wars, Washington sought neutrality. Neither effort at isolationism worked and only prevented the United States from being able to help deter the aggressors in those wars. Eventually, the United States was pulled into both conflicts. After World War II, having learned the dangers of isolationism, the United States remained engaged and paved the way for the founding of NATO and 75 years of relative peace in Europe. The United States must not forget the painful lessons of the last century. To do so would risk undercutting U.S. global leadership, undermining the Washington-built international order, and making the world safer for authoritarian rule.”

“'I'm not saying for certain that Trump will pull us out of NATO, but it's just too high a risk for Europe not to be prepared, because right now they're relying on America,' Harley Lippman, a foreign affairs analyst, told MailOnline.

(…)

Lippman, who has been re-appointed to a US commission under Trump, said: 'Europe has to go forward not counting on America staying in NATO. Europe has to have its own NATO.'

He added that even France has alluded to Europe's need for its own defence alliance and that Europe had to be prepared in case Trump followed through on his threat to leave NATO.

International affairs expert Lippman recently met MP Tobias Ellwood as well as former senior NATO Commander Sir Richard Shirreff in the House of Commons to discuss the dangers of American isolationism.

During the meeting organised the Henry Jackson Society think tank, Lippman warned attendees that Europe couldn't count on continued US support for NATO if Trump is re-elected.

He said that the attendees at the meeting in parliament agreed that a likely scenario would be Trump making a deal with Russia.

Lippman told MailOnline: 'Russia would get more of Ukraine than Ukraine wants and then, in another three years, Putin would come after Moldova and Georgia. He also certainly has his sights set on the Baltic Republics and Poland.

'And the problem with that is that no dictator in history who has successfully conquered a neighbour and then just stopped.

'If Putin defeats Ukraine, he is going to be so emboldened that he is going to go after other countries in Europe, almost all of which are NATO.'

Lippman said this could have devastating consequences: 'An attack on one NATO country is an attack on all NATO countries, which would be WW3.

'To avoid WW3, you have to defeat Russia in Ukraine, and Europe cannot count on America to [have its back].'

Lippman, who has been repeatedly appointed to the US Commission for the Preservation of America's Heritage Abroad by the last four presidents, also echoed Trump's calls for European nations to invest more in their defence.

He said: 'People need to understand the need to defend Europe from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. These four nations are united together to undermine the West and ultimately to defeat the West.

'They are all playing to win and the only way we're going to preserve peace is if we are determined to defend democracies.'

(…)

Under the Biden administration, the US has sent more than $100billion (£79.5 billion) in military aid to Ukraine - EU nations have given the same.

NATO members have agreed on a long-term support package for Ukraine last month, which will see alliance members commit $100billion over five years to ensure long-term support, even amid a Trump presidency.

The proposals, led by outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, will give the security bloc a more direct role in coordinating the supply of arms, ammunition and equipment to Ukraine as it fights Russia's invasion, diplomats say.

(…)

Under the new plans, NATO will be granted control of the US-led ad-hoc coalition known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which coordinates the sourcing and supply of lethal weapons and military kit to Kyiv.

The move is designed in part to guard against any cut in US support if Trump returns to the White House, with Stoltenberg saying it would 'shield the mechanism (of providing aid to Ukraine) against the winds of political change'.

(…)

'It goes some way to protecting in case of Trump. But it is impossible to create something Trump-proof,' one diplomat said.”

*as quoted in ‘American Conspiracy: The Octopus Murders’ (2024)

#nato #trump #russia #ukraine #war #world war iii #wwiii #ww3 #Henry Jackson #harley lippman

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ownedbybooks · 2 years ago

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so, it's been a while since I've posted original content in this blog lmao.

I have been reading, that's fore sure, but my life focus has shifted a bit this year, since I feel a bit more secure to leave my house, after all that crazy stuff happened the past 3 years.

Still, I still love this space of mine on the internet and for the last couple of days I've been thinking about it, specially because I do believe that we change overtime and since i've been moving on with some of my life stuff, I feel this could be a start of a new era of this little blog. I don't think it is fit to be only about books anymore.

That said, i've decided to start posting more about the studyblr community and, mainly, productivity over here as well. Mainly because I want to do some productivity challenges and I feel that posting about it over here will help me get motivated and continue to do them.

So, may I announce that starting tomorrow (June 12th 2023 aka. brazilian valentines day) I will be doing the Project 50 Challenge!

I will be following the basic rules (+ my takes on it) of the challenge, that are:

wake up before 8am (my goal is to wake up everyday at 6am)

do your morning routine: 1h no distractions (i have no idea what i'm going to do except that i can't use my phone and i will be dressing up and making myself some breakfast lmao)

exercise for 1h a day (gym during week days and blogilates exercises during weekends and holidays)

read 10 pages a day (i will start by reading The Prince, by Machiavelli)

dedicate 1h towards a new skill (revising and learning French)

follow a healthy diet (no soda, no red meat and i have to bring my own healthy snacks to work +edit: follow the weight watchers program!!!)

track your daily progress in a journal (this space of mine will work as my journal)

PS: I feel some of my takes on the goals will be changing as the 50 days will pass by. For example, The Prince is a really short book, so I guess I will finish it pretty early on the challenge and then change to another non-fiction book.

As for why I decided to start this productivity challenge, I have to say that's because I have a lot of things to do right now, and I need to put my life in some kind of track. I need to do online courses I've bought and haven't done yet. I'm a bit left behind my reading goals. I need to save a bit of money and eat healthier, as I need to build consistency at the gym. So finding about this 50 day challenge seemed perfect to try and go back on track.

#project 50 #productivity #studyblr #bookblr #mimi does a productivity challenge

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cvrpedie-m · 1 year ago

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Brain Age Mythology Compared to What Really Improves Cognitive Health

Many people have been asking us recently about whether we all have a "Brain Age" and how find out more here we can reduce our "brain ages". This concept is a myth, fueled by the (very fun) Nintendo game and a recent PBS campaign promoting a program produced by Posit Science.

The concept of having a "brain age" is, itself, profoundly unscientific, despite the radio ads for the PBS program titled Brain Fitness Program, where listeners of all ages get the impression (as many friends and colleagues have reported) that, should they buy the Posit Science Brain Fitness Program, they can expect their brains "rejuvenated" by 10 years. This, I hear often, must be true, coming from PBS.

Unfortunately, it isn't. And it isn't because the claim is founded on the same faulty premise of having a "brain age".

What is going on?

First, the good news. Today we know today that the brain retains lifelong plasticity (the ability to change itself through experience). Aging does not mean automatic decline.

Furthermore, we know that a variety of lifestyle factors, including physical and mental exercise, can influence how our mental abilities evolve as we age. We can delay or slow down age-related decline. Not only that, we can improve our abilities, and a number of computer-based programs have shown how they can help specific groups of people train and enhance specific cognitive skills.

Now, what is important to recognize is that there is not one overall "brain age". We can view our brain functions or cognitive abilities as a variety of skills, some more perception-related, some more memory-related, some more language-related, some more visual, some more abstract-thinking and planning oriented. All science-based brain fitness products in the market today target specific cognitive skills. The research that has been published shows how specific brain functions can be improved. But there is no general "brain age" that can be measured or trained in a meaningful way.

Let's analyze the PBS Posit Science-related message: you can rejuvenate your brain by 10 years. What would this mean, were it to be true? perhaps that ALL cognitive abilities would go back to where they were 10 years before. and that this would happen for individuals of all ages: in our 30s, 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s and so on. It would also mean that, given that rejuvenated "brain age", our risk of developing Alzheimer's symptoms would be adjusted to reflect our "new" brain age. And that the evolution of our cognitive abilities over the rest of our lives would reflect our new-found "brain age".

Has this been shown?

Unfortunately, not. The "10 years" claim seems based on one published study, and several unpublished ones, where individuals with an average age of around 70 years take on a very intense auditory processing training program that enables them to improve related auditory cognitive skills by a significant percentage. Whereby, on average, and on those specific skills, they reach a level comparable to people 60 years old.

But this doesn't say anything about other cognitive skills. Or Alzheimer's related risks. Or the cognitive trajectories that will follow.

Just think about this: if, by attending an intensive tennis camp, you were able to serve at a level comparable to people 10 years younger than your age...would you say that your body is now 10 years younger? Probably not. You'd say that now you play tennis better. Which is a significant benefit in itself if that's what you are after.

Recent studies have shown a tremendous variability in how well people age and how, to a large extent, our actions influence our rate of brain improvement and/or decline. The earlier we begin the better. And it is never too late.

What can we do to maintain our brain? Focus on four pillars of brain health: physical exercise, a balanced diet, stress management, and brain exercise. Stress management is important since stress has been shown to actually kill neurons and reduce the rate of creation of new ones. Brain exercises range from low-tech (i.e. meditation, mastering new complex skills, lifelong learning and engagement) to high-tech (i.e. using the growing number of brain fitness software programs).

In summary, the great news is that there are more tools available than ever before to assess and train a variety of cognitive skills, in what is still today a very small, but growing market. Nintendo, Posit Science, and others are offering valuable products and services.

#youtube

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affiliateinz · 1 year ago

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10 Highest Paying Clickbank Products to Promote

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Table of Contents

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Thank for read my atticle, 10 Highest Paying Clickbank Products to Promote

Affiliate Disclaimer :

Some of the links in this article may be affiliate links, which means I receive a small commission at NO ADDITIONAL cost to you if you decide to purchase something. While we receive affiliate compensation for reviews / promotions on this article, we always offer honest opinions, users experiences and real views related to the product or service itself. Our goal is to help readers make the best purchasing decisions, however, the testimonies and opinions expressed are ours only. As always you should do your own thoughts to verify any claims, results and stats before making any kind of purchase. Clicking links or purchasing products recommended in this article may generate income for this product from affiliate commissions and you should assume we are compensated for any purchases you make. We review products and services you might find interesting. If you purchase them, we might get a share of the commission from the sale from our partners. This does not drive our decision as to whether or not a product is featured or recommended.

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keto--friends--helper · 1 year ago

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#health #health fitness #ketotransformation #smoothie #weight loss #woman health #keto #ketosis

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usafphantom2 · 1 year ago

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Canada invests in support of CF-18 Hornet fighters

Aerospace solutions provider Arcfield Canada will continue to strengthen the operations of the Royal Canadian Air Force with support solutions.

Fernando Valduga By Fernando Valduga 03/11/2024 - 16:00 in Military

In an attempt to strengthen Canada's air defense capabilities, the Department of National Defense of Canada granted Arcfield Canada, a supplier of mission support solutions in the aerospace and defense sector, a $157 million contract for the avionics service support program of the CF-18 Hornet jets.

The Canadian Air Force has been looking for a replacement for its current fleet of just over 100 CF-18A/B Hornet multifunction fighters since May 2008. The Canadian government finally decided to upgrade its air force by buying 88 F-35 aircraft, with the first arriving in 2026.

In the meantime, the Royal Canadian Air Force will have the CF-18 (Canadian designation of the Hornet) and will use F-18 aircraft acquired from the RAAF, designed to be in service until 2032.

The fleet has already received a useful life extension through the Hornet Extension Program. The newly awarded contract was for an initial period of five years and five subsequent options of one year.

In the last five years, Arcfield Canada, L3Harris Technologies and Peraton have secured contract extensions to strengthen support for the CF-18 avionics fleet of the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF). L3Harris Technologies won a four-year performance-based contract extension, valued at $482 million, expanding support until the planned retirement of the CF-18 fleet in 2032.

Under the aegis of Team Northern Sentry, composed of industry representatives Raytheon Canada, L3Harris Technologies, Palitronica and Terra Nova, Arcfield Canada will provide the in-service support and support solution for the CF-18 jets.

The in-service support contract for CF-18 avionics will enter into force on April 1º of this year. If all options are exercised, it will last until the end of March 2034, allowing possible delays in the F-35 program.

The contract requires continuous operation and maintenance of Canada's CF-18 fighter fleet, ensuring the optimal availability of the fleet and the readiness of the mission until the early withdrawal of the aircraft.

Tags: Military AviationL3HarrisMcDonnell Douglas CF-188 HornetRCAF - Royal Canadian Air Force/Canada Air Force

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Fernando Valduga

Aviation photographer and pilot since 1992, he has participated in several events and air operations, such as Cruzex, AirVenture, Dayton Airshow and FIDAE. He has works published in specialized aviation magazines in Brazil and abroad. He uses Canon equipment during his photographic work in the world of aviation.