#electoral dynamics

[signode-blog]

"Political Pundits Predict: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 in India Set to Shake NDA's Majority"

As the anticipation builds for the upcoming Lok Sabha Elections in 2024, political analysts and pundits are scrutinizing every indicator, from public sentiment to the betting trends in places like Phalodi Satta Bazar. While the outcome remains uncertain, one prevailing sentiment emerges: the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) might face challenges in securing a resounding victory. Contrary to…

[usavotey]

Swing States in 2024 Presidential Election

Swing States in the 2024 Presidential Election Georgia and Arizona are predicted to be among the closest contenders in the power rankings in the 2024 presidential election. This state was once a Republican stronghold. Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania have flipped red and blue over the past few years, so it’s been difficult to figure out who enrolled voters there will choose in 2024. “The…

[zanmor]

Based on current polling, aside from the yellow states that are competitive, a lot of people in the red, blue, and green states can and should vote third party. It will not impact the electoral college.

"Capitulation" is not using your vote strategically. Voting third party (specifically Green Party) can win that party federal matching funds in future elections, but more importantly it shows Democrats that a progressive platform has votes to win. "Blue no matter who" tells them they don't have to do a damned thing for you--by your own admission you're voting for them no matter who they run.

ok looks like we're gonna be doing the same thing, different verse, now that it's Kamala Harris on the Dem ticket instead of Joe Biden.

friendly reminder that one of these 2 people is getting elected. there's not a magical 3rd party person who's mystical and perfectly progressive who is gonna come out of the woodwork and save us. not voting or voting 3rd party isn't a "protest," it's capitulation. so let's do a comparison:

On Gaza:

I forgot to add to this that Trump also stated he will deport any non-citizen who protests the war in Gaza.

On LGBTQ+ rights:

On criminal justice:

On reproductive rights:

On the border:

In case you don't believe me re: the last Trump point.

On voting rights:

On climate change:

On the working class:

[newspatron]

US Election Dynamics Explained

Share your thoughts! What are your views on the Electoral College and its role in US elections?

Introduction: The Complex World of US Elections The United States presidential election is one of the most anticipated and watched events globally, drawing attention from people, media, and governments worldwide. Yet, the mechanics of this process can be confusing. Unlike many countries that rely on a straightforward popular vote system, the U.S. uses a unique system known as the Electoral…

[townpostin]

Ajoy Kumar Joins 'Race' for Jamshedpur East Assembly Seat

Former MP and ex-IPS officer enters race; two other candidatures submitted for key seats Jharkhand’s upcoming Assembly elections see former Jamshedpur MP Dr. Ajoy Kumar file for Jamshedpur East seat. JAMSHEDPUR – As was expected, and widely conjectured too, Dr. Ajoy Kumar, ex-MP and former IPS officer, has submitted his candidature for the Jamshedpur East Assembly seat in Jharkhand. There are no…

[every-day-updates]

Striking a Balance: Congress' Approach to Haryana's Diversity

In a strategic move reflecting lessons learned from past electoral outcomes, the Congress party in Haryana has unveiled a carefully balanced list of candidates for the upcoming elections. The selection process underscores the party’s effort to cater to the diverse demographics and communities within the state.

Amidst the backdrop of BJP’s sweeping victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where it claimed all 10 constituencies in Haryana, the Congress aims to restore equilibrium by ensuring representation from various influential castes. Notably, the party has distributed tickets across nine constituencies, with Kurukshetra being held by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

The candidate list exhibits a conscious effort to accommodate key communities, with two tickets allocated to Jats, Dalits, and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) each. Additionally, one ticket each has been allotted to the Punjabi and Brahmin communities, reflecting a commitment to inclusivity.

Among the prominent candidates are Deepender Hooda and Jai Prakash representing the Jat community, while Kumari Selja and Varun Chaudhary stand as the Scheduled Caste nominees. Notably, the Congress has strategically positioned candidates from various communities to challenge BJP contenders effectively.

The electoral strategy extends beyond mere representation, with considerations for caste dynamics and previous voting patterns. For instance, the Congress has fielded candidates from communities that constitute significant portions of the electorate, aiming to capitalize on existing support bases.

In a state where caste equations play a crucial role in electoral outcomes, the Congress’ approach underscores a nuanced understanding of Haryana’s socio-political landscape. By aligning candidate selection with demographic realities and community sentiments, the party seeks to consolidate its position and mount a formidable challenge to its opponents.

As the electoral battle intensifies, the Congress’ emphasis on inclusivity and balance sets the stage for a competitive and dynamic political landscape in Haryana. With a keen eye on diversity and representation, the party endeavors to navigate the intricate web of caste affiliations and emerge as a formidable contender in the upcoming elections.

[gurucave]

Trump Secures Victory in New Hampshire Primary, Posing Challenges for Rival Haley

The 2024 United States presidential election season is underway, and New Hampshire recently hosted its crucial primary, marking a pivotal moment in the race. In a swift announcement by the Associated Press, former President Donald Trump emerged as the Republican winner, further solidifying his dominance within the party. This article delves into the New Hampshire primary results, analyzing the…

[tchaikovskaya]

You’re really failing to understand the point here.

What the College Dems tweet is expressing (quite succinctly, I must say) is the idea that the left-of-center of the Party’s base is being taken for granted, because there are no better viable options on the table.

This is effectively what would be in a parliamentary system a vote of no confidence.

Doing whatever the fuck you want because [your] half of the country knows that the other side is going to do the same but to a greater degree is absolutely what I would consider “holding democracy hostage.”

I don’t think that both parties are the same, no. But the Democrats feel that they have license to act similarly enough to the GOP on a great number of issues as long as they maintain some distinction. The difference is used as something to dangle over the electorate’s heads as a looming threat of something worse to come, as a consequence if they don’t fall in line. And party-loyal voters have had enough of it at this point. THAT is what’s happening here.

Yeah biden is fucking toast lol

[metamatar]

This is maybe a stupid question but do you think there's any ties between like orientalist trends in western countries that glorify dharmic religions and Hindutva? Like I've heard 'Hinduism is the oldest religion on Earth' and 'Hinduism/Buddhism are just so much more enlightened than savage Abrahamic religions' and 'how could there be war and oppression in India? Hindus don't believe in violence' from white liberals and it certainly seems *convenient* for Hindutva propaganda, at least.

Not stupid at all! Historically, orientalism precedes modern Hindutva. The notion of a unified Hinduism is actually constructed in the echo of oriental constructions of India, with Savarkar clearly modelling One Nation, One Race, One Language on westphalian nationhood. He will often draw on Max Mueller type of indology orientalists in his writing in constructing the Hindu claim to a golden past and thus an ethnostate.

In terms of modern connections you can see the use and abuse of orientalism in South Asian postcolonial studies depts in the west that end up peddling Hindutva ideology –

The geographer Sanjoy Chakravorty recently promised that, in his new book, he would “show how the social categories of religion and caste as they are perceived in modern-day India were developed during the British colonial rule…” The air of originality amused me. This notion has been in vogue in South Asian postcolonial studies for at least two decades. The highest expression of the genre, Nicholas Dirks’s Castes of Mind, was published in 2001. I take no issue with claiming originality for warmed-over ideas: following the neoliberal mantra of “publish or perish,” we academics do it all the time. But reading Chakravorty’s essay, I was shocked at the longevity of this particular idea, that caste as we know it is an artefact of British colonialism. For any historian of pre-colonial India, the idea is absurd. Therefore, its persistence has less to do with empirical merit, than with the peculiar dynamics of the global South Asian academy.

[...] No wonder that Hindutvadis in both countries are now quoting their works to claim that caste was never a Hindu phenomenon. As Dalits are lynched across India and upper-caste South Asian-Americans lobby to erase the history of their lower-caste compatriots from US textbooks, to traffic in this self-serving theory is unconscionable.

You can see writer sociologists beloved of western academia like Ashish Nandy argue for the "inherent difference of indian civilization makes secularism impossible" and posit that the caste ridden gandhian hinduism is the answer as though the congress wasn't full of hindutva-lites and that the capture of dalit radicalism by electoralism and grift is actually a form of redistribution. Sorry if thats not necessarily relevant I like to hate on him.

Then most importantly is the deployment of "Islamic Colonization" that Hindu India must be rescued from, which is merely cover for the rebrahmanization of the country. This periodization and perspective of Indian history is obviously riven up in British colonial orientalism, see Romila Thapar's work on precolonial India. Good piece on what the former means if you've not engaged with it, fundamentally it posits an eternal Hindu innocence.

[dingodad]

it's interesting to look at jane crocker's political career not always in terms of how it makes her a ""fascist monster"" so to speak - along the lines of homestuck's literal fascist monsters like the condesce and lord english - but in how it plays into the crucial fact at the heart of her character that she is "normcore". jane is a character of the context she was born in, the almost-exact midpoint of the barack obama presidency; superficially and popularly, a time of great optimism for a liberalising america, but through this facade of optimism a time which also saw a great deal of "normalisation" of deeply evil american imperialism both abroad and at home.

jane's love of the NBC's Parks & Recreation is emblematic of this. homestuck and parks & rec are similar in one respect, which is that p&r also began and ended over the course of the obama presidency - and like jane, p&r is deeply of that era. in many senses it is the ancestor to the "copaganda" of programming like Brooklyn 99 which took over its position of popularity into the trump era: at the core of its comic dynamic is the interplay between leslie knope, a progressive-liberal "girlboss" and champion of big government, and ron swanson, the hard-working, moustache-toting libertarian sentinel of private capitalist interest. but in the classic mode of liberal american thought, the core message of the show is that these two characters are friends. despite the complete incompatibility of their respective ideologies, the two must work together and make compromise at every stage, ensuring that the political landscape of america - implicitly the perfect state - never changes or progresses from where it is now. and it's telling that, despite being the liberal "girlboss" with visions of political ascendancy, jane's love and admiration is for the male character. like obama himself, swanson serves to put a friendly, sometimes goofy but always loveable face on american patriarchal hegemony.

because by the time homestuck had closed up and the post-canon had opened america had crossed that threshold from obama's presidency into the next, it's impossible not to draw parallels between jane's descent into xenophobia and the overt isolationism of the trump republican administration. but i think putting jane on this trajectory is also in a very real sense just as much an indictment of the democrat majority of homestuck's genesis; xenophobia is not a "trump problem" but rather an AMERICA problem, and in fact the political landscape of the late 2010s and 2020s is an inevitable progression of the kind of politics that were considered "normal" in 2011, not the result of some freak misstep of electoral probability in 2016.

[allthecanadianpolitics]

Hi! Wanted to reply to the anon from Alberta, and also folks in general anxious about the BC election, with a (mostly) hopeful message.

I'm a queer POC immigrant from BC and I've never really seen it as a left stronghold. The "BC Liberals" were always actually a conservative party, and the BC NDP are in many ways more centrist than the already centrist-in-many-ways federal NDP. This might sound dire, but I like to frame it as: this election isn't revealing a loss in empathy. We've already been working at this level, and we can continue to make gains from here.

Furthermore, if the pre-recount results hold and the Greens end up holding the balance of power with their 2 seats, the coalition between the two non-conservative parties could encourage them both to lean into their more popular and progressive ideas, like the harm reduction that became a wedge issue this election. This was the sort of power dynamic I had hoped for when proportional representation was floated in BC, and it may be interesting seeing how that plays out.

Further-furthermore, no matter the electoral situation, grassroots movements continue to fight, and their wins are often underreported by the news. Even though times may toughen, people are always finding ways to look out for each other.

~~~~

[centrally-unplanned]

This Richard Hanania piece was quite good for crystallizing some thoughts I had around the toxic nature of the electoral college. Obviously the electoral college is dumb - it is undemocratic in an arbitrary way, just randomly rewarding certain voters. I think idea of a system empowering "rural voters" would be really bad, but if that is your goal fair enough; it is telling that so many defenders of the EC will do so on grounds like that, but it doesn't do that! It just randomly empowers people in Pennsylvania, agonistic of density of living.

But more than it being undemocratic, it results in pernicious political dynamics - national elections being decided by tiny slivers of voters such that their hobbyhorse topics get undue preference. It twists the policy agenda, yes, but it also twists the parties themselves, who have to exist in its world. As someone who is far more of a Democrat, I think about it in terms of the Democratic Party; but Hanania is right to note it has been far more destructive to the Republican Party. The Republican Party has a much larger "anti-establishment" element that the Democratic party does, and they are concentrated in swing states. As I have said before, there are more Republicans in California than there are in Texas; but the voice of those Republicans doesn't matter. Everything gets bent around catering to that swing state slice. A Republican party staffed by its members in NYC and Los Angeles would still not be my fave party or anything, but it would be far better than the status quo.

The post reminds me of similar things around primaries; the US primaries are currently built very badly. US political parties just aren't democratic institutions, they don't really make sense to be that way and do not function that way, but we sort of pantomime it with this weird, staggered "race to drop out last" that rewards factional posturing over clear governance & electoral agendas. But as annoying as the democrats have been under it, the Republicans have suffered far worse! A complete outsider who disagreed with a third of the party's stated agenda and was deeply unpopular with the median voter exploited razor-thin majority-of-a-majorities in "elections" with maybe 25% voter turnout to seize the nomination twice. These conditions are "unfortunate" in a certain sense, it is bad that a solid ~1/10th of the US population are ride-or-die nativists for whom "immigration" is their only concern and are, to be frank, too poorly informed to understand the policy issues they care so much about. But something like that will always be true; these systems make every election a dice roll to dodge unlucky alignments, and when you hit them your coalition warps to match them and becomes sticky.

Many Republicans will mention these hazy ideas that "without the EC we will never win", and this is the least accurate idea of all. I actually remember a Richard Hanania post I blogged about a long time ago, about how so many Republican ideas are actually very popular and have gotten more popular over time. School choice, parts of immigration, taxes, law & order, etc, are all winning issues. Sans the EC the party woulds shift, as it always had, to a new equilibrium. And I bet you could do it within one term, voters have no long term memory, like at all. If in two years Nikki Haley is campaigning on Compassionate Conservatism and expanded Medicare, she would do just fine.

Ofc the issue now is that the Republican Party - while filled to the brim with hucksters, for sure - are true believers enough that they wouldn't want that. Because the EC alignments are sticky, as mentioned, it is part of why it's so toxic. Which is very sad because, despite probably being a lifelong Democrat voter, I really want a better Republican party. Because they are going to win elections! It is a democracy, of course they will, and they probably "should", I don't want a unipolar state and god knows the Democrats have their own brand of bullshit that electoral defeat has gotta discipline to keep them sane. Even if it means a Republican party that wins more elections, if they are saner it is worth it. They have some good ideas after all, if only they had a chance to breathe.

Since I don't think Republicans will consider it, I do think it is something Dems should pursue harder. But I'll admit the capacity to execute here is bleak - do your best with the State Compact I guess.

[transgenderer]

theres this weird thing re: trump and fascism where i think the comparison is valid+kind of insightful on the "vibes"+appeal level, like the psychology of the trump supporter i think does genuinely lean on a lot of weird and intense emotions for standard electoral politics, theres a whole savior dynamic and cult of personality BUT

he's not actually a fascist (or even authoritarian) on like a policy level! he has no vision! hes just a corrupt showman, these are a dime a dozen! we already had a trump president, he did harmful right wing things, but like. basically normal republican things, plus corruption+cronyism+whatever. not fascism in any real sense

its a very strange disconnect. like to some extent fascism is already about performanc ebut this is meta-performance. it's the performance of fascism without the followthrough. which is like, good i guess. but strange, after he's already had a term. like, his supporters know what a trump presidency looks like, he's no savior, or even like...world-changer

[newspatron]

Unraveling Lok Sabha Election Dynamics 2024

We’d love to hear your thoughts on our analysis of the Lok Sabha election dynamics 2024. Share your feedback in the comments!

Understanding the Tides of Democracy In the vibrant landscape of Indian politics, the Lok Sabha elections stand as a testament to the pulsating heart of democracy. As we delve into the depth of election results, it’s crucial to comprehend the undercurrents that shape the political narrative. This series of blog posts, titled Lok Sabha Election Result Analysis aims to dissect the multifaceted…

[townpostin]

Yashwant Sinha Launches Atal Vichar Manch Political Party

Former Foreign Minister forms new party amid BJP ticket controversy Yashwant Sinha announces the formation of Atal Vichar Manch following BJP’s decision on Hazaribagh seat. RANCHI – Former Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha has launched a new political party named Atal Vichar Manch, responding to recent BJP ticket allocations. The formation comes after BJP denied a ticket to Sinha’s son, Jayant…

[wilwheaton]

The congressional party is controlled and run by the hard right minority variously called the Tea Party or Freedom Caucus. But they are a bit too hot for national public consumption. They also rely on the idea that their far right policy agenda has broad public support but is held back by a corrupt/bureaucratic establishment. For both of these reasons a system was developed in which this far right group runs the caucus, but from the background, while it is nominally run by a mainstreamish Republican leader. Under John Boehner, Paul Ryan or Kevin McCarthy this basic dynamic remained more or less the same. It works for everybody because the Freedom Party calls the shots while the party maintains broad electoral viability via figureheadish leadership.

No Plans To Veer From The McCarthy Punishment Playbook