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Tariff Impact: Are They Helping or Hurting Us? ✅📈💵
Lately, I’ve been thinking about something we don’t always notice until it hits our wallets: tariffs.
What’s On My Mind Today? Tariff Impact 🧠💭 Lately, I’ve been thinking about something we don’t always notice until it hits our wallets: tariffs. These taxes on imported goods can affect everything from the price of your coffee to the health of industries in your community. Are tariffs the lifeline that local industries need, or are they hidden costs we all end up paying? As I dug into this…
#consumer prices#economic policy#economic tools#global trade impacts#import taxes#protectionism#steel prices#tariff impact#trade retaliation#trade tariffs#U.S.-China trade war
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Canada’s ground-breaking, hamstrung repair and interop laws
If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this post to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:
https://pluralistic.net/2024/11/15/radical-extremists/#sex-pest
When the GOP trifecta assumes power in just a few months, they will pass laws, and those laws will be terrible, and they will cast long, long shadows.
This is the story of how another far-right conservative government used its bulletproof majority to pass a wildly unpopular law that continues to stymie progress to this day. It's the story of Canada's Harper Conservative government, and two of its key ministers: Tony Clement and James Moore.
Starting in 1998, the US Trade Rep embarked on a long campaign to force every country in the world to enact a new kind of IP law: an "anticircumvention" law that would criminalize the production and use of tools that allowed people to use their own property in ways that the manufacturer disliked.
This first entered the US statute books with the 1998 passage of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), whose Section 1201 established a new felony for circumventing an "access control." Crucially, DMCA 1201's prohibition on circumvention did not confine itself to protecting copyright.
Circumventing an access control is a felony, even if you never violate copyright law. For example, if you circumvent the access control on your own printer to disable the processes that check to make sure you're using an official HP cartridge, HP can come after you.
You haven't violated any copyright, but the ink-checking code is a copyrighted work, and you had to circumvent a block in order to reach it. Thus, if I provide you a tool to escape HP's ink racket, I commit a felony with penalties of five years in prison and a $500k fine, for a first offense. So it is that HP ink costs more per ounce than the semen of a Kentucky Derby-winning stallion.
This was clearly a bad idea in 1998, though it wasn't clear how bad an idea it was at the time. In 1998, chips were expensive and underpowered. By 2010, a chip that cost less than a dollar could easily implement a DMCA-triggering access control, and manufacturers of all kinds were adding superfluous chips to everything from engine parts to smart lightbulbs whose sole purpose was to transform modification into felonies. This is what Jay Freeman calls "felony contempt of business-model."
So when the Harper government set out to import US-style anticircumvention law to Canada, Canadians were furious. A consultation on the proposal received 6,138 responses opposing the law, and 54 in support:
https://www.michaelgeist.ca/2010/04/copycon-final-numbers/
And yet, James Moore and Tony Clement pressed on. When asked how they could advance such an unpopular bill, opposed by experts and the general public alike, Moore told the International Chamber of Commerce that every objector who responded to his consultation was a "radical extremist" with a "babyish" approach to copyright:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/copyright-debate-turns-ugly-1.898216
As is so often the case, history vindicated the babyish radical extremists. The DMCA actually has an official way to keep score on this one. Every three years, the US Copyright Office invites public submissions for exemptions to DMCA 1201, creating a detailed, evidence-backed record of all the legitimate activities that anticircumvention law interferes with.
Unfortunately, "a record" is all we get out of this proceeding. Even though the Copyright Office is allowed to grant "exemptions," these don't mean what you think they mean. The statute is very clear on this: the US Copyright Office is required to grant exemptions for the act of circumvention, but is forbidden from granting exemptions for tools needed to carry out these acts.
This is headspinningly and deliberately obscure, but there's one anecdote from my long crusade against this stupid law that lays it bare. As I mentioned, the US Trade Rep has made the passage of DMCA-like laws in other countries a top priority since the Clinton years. In 2001, the EU adopted the EU Copyright Directive, whose Article 6 copy-pastes the provisions of DMCA 1201.
In 2003, I found myself in Oslo, debating the minister who'd just completed Norway's EUCD implementation. The minister was very proud of his law, boasting that he'd researched the flaws in other countries' anticircumvention laws and addressed them in Norway's law. For example, Norway's law explicitly allowed blind people to bypass access controls on ebooks in order to feed them into text-to-speech engines, Braille printers and other accessibility tools.
I knew where this was going. I asked the minister how this would work in practice. Could someone sell a blind person a tool to break the DRM on their ebooks? Of course not, that's totally illegal. Could a nonprofit blind rights group make such a tool and give it away to blind people? No, that's illegal too. What about hobbyists, could they make the tool for their blind friends? No, not that either.
OK, so how do blind people exercise their right to bypass access controls on ebooks they own so they can actually read them?
Here's how. Each blind person, all by themself, is expected to decompile and reverse-engineer Adobe Reader, locate a vulnerability in the code and write a new program that exploits that vulnerability to extract their ebooks. While blind people are individually empowered to undertake this otherwise prohibited activity, they must do so on their own: they can't share notes with one another on the process. They certainly can't give each other the circumvention program they write in this way:
https://pluralistic.net/2024/10/28/mcbroken/#my-milkshake-brings-all-the-lawyers-to-the-yard
That's what a use-only exemption is: the right to individually put a locked down device up on your own workbench, and, laboring in perfect secrecy, figure out how it works and then defeat the locks that stop you from changing those workings so they benefit you instead of the manufacturer. Without a "tools" exemption, a use exemption is basically a decorative ornament.
So the many use exemptions that the US Copyright Office has granted since 1998 really amount to nothing more than a list of defects in the DMCA that the Copyright Office has painstaking verified but is powerless to fix. We could probably save everyone a lot of time by scrapping the triennial exemptions process and replacing it with an permanent sign over the doors of the Library of Congress reading "Abandon hope, all ye who enter here."
All of this was well understood by 2010, when Moore and Clement were working on the Canadian version of the DMCA. All of this was explained in eye-watering detail to Moore and Clement, but was roundly ignored. I even had a go at it, publicly picking a fight with Moore on Twitter:
https://web.archive.org/web/20130407101911if_/http://eaves.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/Conversations%20between%20@doctorow%20and%[email protected]
Moore and Clement rammed their proposal through in the next session of Parliament, passing it as Bill C-11 in 2012:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copyright_Modernization_Act
This was something of a grand finale for the pair. Today, Moore is a faceless corporate lawyer, while Clement was last seen grifting covid PPE (Clement's political career ended abruptly when he sent dick pics to a young woman who turned out to be a pair of sextortionists from Cote D'Ivoire, and was revealed as a serial sex-pest in the ensuing scandal:)
https://globalnews.ca/news/4646287/tony-clement-instagram-women/
Even though Moore and Clement are long gone from public life, their signature achievement remains a Canadian disgrace, an anchor chain tied around the Canadian economy's throat, and an impediment to Canadian progress.
This week, two excellent new Canadian laws received royal assent: Bill C-244 is a broad, national Right to Repair law; and Bill C-294 is a broad, national interoperability law. Both laws establish the right to circumvent access controls for the purpose of fixing and improving things, something Canadians deserve and need.
But neither law contains a tools exemption. Like the blind people of Norway, a Canadian farmer who wants to attach a made-in-Canada Honeybee tool to their John Deere tractor is required to personally, individually reverse-engineer the John Deere tractor and modify it to talk to the Honeybee accessory, laboring in total secrecy:
https://www.theregister.com/2024/11/12/canada_right_to_repair/
Likewise the Canadian repair tech who fixes a smart speaker or a busted smartphone – they are legally permitted to circumvent in order to torture the device's repair codes out of it or force it to recognize a replacement part, but each technician must personally figure out how to get the device firmware to do this, without discussing it with anyone else.
Thus do Moore and Clement stand athwart Canadian self-reliance and economic development, shouting "STOP!" though both men have been out of politics for years.
There has never been a better time to hit Clement and Moore's political legacy over the head with a shovel and bury it in a shallow grave. Canadian technologists could be making a fortune creating circumvention devices that repair and improve devices marketed by foreign companies.
They could make circumvention tools to allow owners of consoles to play games by Canadian studios that are directly sold to Canadian gamers, bypassing the stores operated by Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo and the 30% commissions they charge. Canadian technologists could be making diagnostic tools that allow every auto-mechanic in Canada to fix any car manufactured anywhere in the world.
Canadian cloud servers could power devices long after their US-based manufacturers discontinue support for them, providing income to Canadian cloud companies and continued enjoyment for Canadian owners of these otherwise bricked gadgets.
Canada's gigantic auto-parts sector could clone the security chips that foreign auto manufacturers use to block the use of third party parts, and every Canadian could enjoy a steep discount every time they fix their cars. Every farmer could avail themselves of third party parts for their tractors, which they could install themselves, bypassing the $200 service call from a John Deere technician who does nothing more than look over the farmer's own repair and then types an unlock code into the tractor's console.
Every Canadian who prints out a shopping list or their kid's homework could use third party ink that sells for pennies per liter, rather than HP's official colored water that cost more than vintage Veuve Cliquot.
A Canadian e-waste dump generates five low-paid jobs per ton of waste, and that waste itself will poison the land and water for centuries to come. A circumvention-enabled Canadian repair sector could generate 150 skilled, high-paid community jobs that saves gadgets and the Earth, all while saving Canadians millions.
Canadians could enjoy the resliency that comes of having a domestic tech and repair sector, and could count on it through pandemics and Trumpian trade-war.
All of that and more could be ours, except for the cowardice and greed of Tony Clement and James Moore and the Harper Tories who voted C-11 into law in 2012.
Everything the "radical extremists" warned them of has come true. It's long past time Canadians tore up anticircumvention law and put the interests of the Canadian public and Canadian tech businesses ahead of the rent-seeking enshittification of American Big Tech.
Until we do that, we can keep on passing all the repair and interop laws we want, but each one will be hamstrung by Moore and Clement's "felony contempt of business model" law, and the contempt it showed for the Canadian people.
Image: JeffJ (modified) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Tony_Clement_-_2007-06-30_in_Kearney,_Ontario.JPG
CC BY-SA 3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/
--
Jorge Franganillo (modified) https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Duga_radar_system-_wreckage_of_electronic_devices_(37885984654).jpg
CC BY 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/deed.en
#pluralistic#o canada#canada#cdnpoli#bill c32#anticircumvention#interoperability#trumpism#technological self-determination#c32#bill c244#bill c294#c244#c294#interop#repair#r2r#right to repair#tools exemptions#use exemptions#trade war#economic development
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Right now is the time to get involved in the defeat of America's most dangerous enemy since the Cold War.
The traditional election season, starting on Labor Day, is a thing of the distant political past. And considering the magnitude of the threat to democracy, even waiting for the end of the primary season may be too late.
The worst president in our history is, arguably, stronger within the leadership ranks of the Republican Party than he has ever been. He is now the most dangerous presidential candidate in U.S. history. As a consequence, the great question before the rest of us is whether enough of us are ready to do whatever is necessary to defeat this threat as we have all those that have come before. Sadly, there is reason to believe that this time we may not meet the challenge. Right now, Donald Trump is one of two people who could be our next president. The race, at the moment, between him and President Joe Biden, is too close to call.
The people with their heads up their ass over Biden's age are either hypocrites or dissemblers. On Inauguration Day 2025, Donald Trump will be 95.66% of Joe Biden's age. And Trump will also be older in January of 2025 than Biden was upon assuming office in 2021. Biden may have a lifelong stutter but he is still grounded in reality in a way the narcissistic nepo baby Donald Trump never was.
Joe Biden by any objective metric has been one of the most successful presidents in modern U.S. history. He has led the creation of more major legislative initiatives benefiting the American people than any president in 60 years. He oversaw the creation of more than 14 million jobs during his first three years in office. He has brought down inflation and reduced the prices of vital medicines to affordable levels. He has restored American leadership worldwide, expanded our vital alliances like NATO, and stood up to our enemies. All presidents face challenges and make missteps. But it is hard to deny that in the wake of the U.S. economic recovery, the passage of the American Rescue Plan, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, the CHIPs and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act, the expansion of NATO, and the creation of new Indo-Pacific alliances, Biden’s record is formidable. That a president with this record is in a horse race with a candidate who is a menace to the country, who led an insurrection, who is a pathological liar whom courts have found to be a fraud and a rapist, and who has no real ideas, no credible policy proposals, no record of actually ever achieving anything for the American people is chilling.
In normal times, over 40% of US voters would NOT pick a notorious sex offender for president. But these are not normal times.
You would have thought that the sight of mobs carrying Trump flags and weapons and chanting for the death of Vice President Mike Pence on January 6, 2021, would have been alarm enough. You would have thought the same of Trump’s Access Hollywood tape, in which he confessed his impulse to abuse women. You would have thought the two dozen women who accused him of abuse would have had that effect. Even if none of those things were quite warning enough, you would have thought the findings in the E. Jean Carroll case would have been enough. After all, respected federal judge Lew Kaplan wrote, “The fact that Mr. Trump sexually abused—indeed, raped—Ms. Carroll has been conclusively established and is binding in this case.” It should have been enough. But so far, it has not been.
And who would have thought that the party of Ronald Reagan is now led by a stooge of the Evil Empire?
You would have thought that Trump reaching out on national television to our Russian adversaries for aid during the 2016 campaign would have been enough. You would have thought the conclusive findings of every major U.S. intelligence agency that Russia sought to aid Trump’s campaign would have been enough. You would have thought that Robert Mueller’s finding 10 instances of possible obstruction of justice by Trump would have been enough. You would have thought Trump kowtowing to Vladimir Putin and taking his word over that of our intelligence and law enforcement communities would have been enough. You would have thought his illegally withholding aid to Ukraine to seek dirt on Joe Biden would have been enough. You would have thought his impeachment for that would have been enough.
Are you willing to spend more time and money than in previous election cycles to end a major threat to Western democracy and to undermine homegrown fascism for at least the rest of this decade?
So, ask yourself, is that enough to make you do more than you have done? Is that enough to commit for the next 10 months to do more than you have ever done during an election year? To give more? To canvas more? To spread the word more? To help get voters to the polls? To ensure every member of your family, your friends, your co-workers do the same? The stakes are too high to do less than everything you can.
I rarely quote Margaret Thatcher and would probably disagree with at least 90% of her views. But she did know something about winning elections and combating the USSR. If she was good for just one thing, it's for this observation in a speech made in her retirement.
[N]o battles are ever finally won; you have to go on winning them by example and by being prepared to defend your way of life against those who would attack it.
If we learn just one thing from the Trump threat, it's that we can never rest on our past laurels. A slacker democracy is one which will not outlast a determined demagogue.
Civic involvement by pro-democracy citizens is absolutely necessary to maintain freedom.
#democracy#threat to democracy#donald trump#democracy vs. totalitarianism#trump is a tool of russia#trump is a sex offender#if you hate freedom vote for trump#register and vote#vote blue no matter who#support democratic candidates#the biden administration's economic growth programs#civic involvement#david rothkopf#bernard l. schwartz#election 2024
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i dont have the words to phrase this right but like. just bc a land is colonized doesnt mean that forever and always the products of that land are the colonizers. mexican food isnt spainsh (spain) food. algerian food isnt french food. usamerican food isnt british food.
there is history & culture before colonization. during occupation countries have unique experiences from their colonizers due to any number of factors(trading, economy, migration etc). and after independence those countries continue to have unique experiences that define their culture & food
i assure you that sometime in the past 250 years people have created new communities & cultures and that this is reflected in their cuisine
#also why i dont put up w ppl who hate on fusion/immigrant cuisine. blah blah it isnt REAL [place] food#ofc it isnt! theyre in a new land w different foods available + cooking styles/tools + neighbors + lifestyles + economic class.#like yes that will change things a bit. it isnt wrong or bad! just different!
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Economics is a social science.
The worst social science.
Mathmatically justified palm reading.
"I see wealth and prosperity in your future" - an economist
*Economy crashes*
#liz truss#minibudget#stonks#trickle down economics#bitcoin#brexit#japanese yen#ai bubble#so sick of economists acting like they're better than sociologists or psychologists when the latter two engage in more thorough research#maths is a tool not a pedestal#just become an accountant physicist or engineer#something useful that won't destroy the lives of millions of people
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there’s knowing that Roy Kent’s being sent off at the age of nine by his family was probably understood as a necessary sacrifice for the financial future of the family and then there’s knowing that Roy would have been born in the mid-80s right in the middle of thatcher administration and the era of austerity.
#my post#roy kent#ted lasso#ted lasso show#ted lasso tv#sports remains one of the few viable ways for radical economic class transformation#roy kent already has communication issues#and i would argue his anger functions as a tool of emotional simplification and repression#imagine a nine year old trying to talk about his problems with his family knowing when they are far away they cant get to him#and if he fails or wants to leave he is killing one of their best chances of making it out of poverty#roy kents childhood of poverty was when the social safety net was threadbare in the places it wasn't being hacked to pieces
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why are you as a highly experienced professional talking to me about cobb douglas production models
#economics is stupidddddd#''this model totally ignores reality in service of arithmetic expedience because it's only used as a teaching tool for undergrads right?''#''...''#''RIGHT????????''#ramblings
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Got blocked before I could ever even see the message lmao. The answer is that I am a Communist, and as a Communist, I've read Wage Labor & Capital. hope this helps
#txt#The real answer is that “pro-ai” is a statement that does not describe me or my ideology#I'm ai-neutral but I'm “pro-ai” when people are annoying about it#I believe that AI is a tool like many other tools that can have both positive and negative uses... like anything else#and that the actual vehicle of economic suffering that is misattributed to “ai” is actually Capitalism#The machines and the people that use them are not the root of economic hardship. It is Capitalism.#and the people most affected by the negative affects of AI are actually NOT random twitter/tumblr artists. They are VFX artists at Disney#& like video game artists at big companies#not artists on tumblr who saw a shitpost made with bing ai & got mad about it#but I'm not going to make an effort-post about it bc 1. I've done that several times already & 2. That's what my ⌨️ tag is for#Used to being asked this question & being blocked#But this is the first time that has happened with. A longtime mutual? From a completely different site no less?#⌨️
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pop psych: make decisions based on real science, not astrology
also pop psych:
#pop psych is literally just astrology reinvented for capitalists#pop psych is book three of the gospel of liberalism#pop psych is a tool to simplify human relationships until they become yet another market governed by economics and rationality
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"Omg I can't stand when people try to use the intersectional feminist argument to include men. Like when they ask if a homeless man can be misogynistic to a rich woman. I'm just worried for the (poor helpless weak females) homeless women AROUND him!!"
So you just suck at intersectional feminism. Okay.
#Jean rambles#The bioessentialism. The genderessentialism. Y'all are so close to getting the point#Like. Sure okay let's look at a homeless encampment that has men and women (and for the sake of argument - no genderqueer people of any kind#On a purely gender basis yeah sure there are risks for misogyny#But what about the racial aspects of the encampment. What about the religious aspects. Hell what about the economic aspects#What about disability - physical or otherwise - aspects. What about age aspects. What about family aspects.#There are SO many goddamn aspects to look at in just this one hypothetical homeless encampment#That can determine and influence how people there interact with each other#Especially given outside influences such as police and civilians#If you only focus on the most cis-centric gender binary perspective of this hypothetical homeless encampment#Then you just suck at intersectional feminism. I'm sorry but you do. You just suck at it#Get better and do better before thinking you can pull a seat up to this table#And yeah. Obviously these different aspects can fall on the women too#A homeless muslim woman is highly likely to experience a tougher time than a homeless white christian man#But then the homeless latino man with a physical disability is highly likely to have a tougher time than a homeless white woman with-#No disability at all#It's not about who is more oppressed or any of that shit#It's looking at all the pieces that make up a whole and seeing the issues that can come from some of those pieces#One of the biggest points of intersectional feminism is to not make the oppression olympics#It's to give a voice and a name to the tool that's being used to beat countless of us into the dirt
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me: i like ff2
myth: oh an ff2 fan
me: so the geopolitical landscape of ff2 in relation to economics trade and culture
myth: 😰
#yall dont even know the half of it#im so mentally ill about final fantasy 2 but its like a hidden button you have to press to activate#and i start talking about the distribution of magic as an economic and political tool#vans.txt
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Once you realize it, that appointments, deadlines, and even the time on our phones are more what you'd call guidelines and are almost all ignorable, within reason, AND that all of the little inconveniences and frustrations of your day that come from Capitalism...
from all of our technology like s***** voice to text, or interactions with businesses' draconian stupid ass regulations that make no sense, Android's s***** UI, or just getting through traffic is all carefully designed cause as much frustration, anxiety, pain, and miserableness as possible...
Once you accept this truth, it all becomes easier to bear and find creative ways to face and overcome.
Children, if you know that things like that are all working to cause you anxiety and distraction and even to hurt and kill you by making you sick or getting into car accidents or whatever when trying to get your Bluetooth to work in your Toyota while you're driving, and whatever. If you are aware of this, children, if you are aware, you can protect yourself from the powers of the world a little better as well. At least if you are as paranoid as yours truly.
#That includes tumblr's blogging tools from hell#capitalism#late stage capitalism#frustration#struggle#tired#stress#fear#anger#mental#mental health#anxiety#depression#economy#trickle-down economics#the only thing trickling down is shit#ph4wg Original#ph4wg
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sometimes what gets passed around on this website as economic theory/analysis just like... is not
#and it causes me a great deal of pain#like this is quibbling over buzzwords. there are no citations#different economic theories reveal/obfuscate different things. these are analytical tools folks#a screwdriver might not be of use when you're trying to hammer down a nail. so don't use it for that?#'political economists' Surely not all of them
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really not over how I recently shared in a group setting that I was pinging chatgpt to create strings of phonemes I could retool or bounce off of for worldbuilding and someone who I don't think I've interacted with before was like "I've been paid to train AIs by writing fiction prompts, and you're exploiting my labor directly, you're having people worldbuild for you"
and it's petty and rude, but being faced with such a random escalation based on like, core misunderstandings of what any issues with machine learning are
"lmao you should write better" would have been a really good comeback
#I am sorry your labor was exploited by capital to build a tool I am not using#cooincidentally my labor is also being exploited to build tools that you probably are not using!#such is our economic situation! I must also confess the use of random name generators#which previously I exploited heavily when writing my not-for-profit independent hobby fiction#look if you're asserting that I am plagiarizing you via chatGPT it's really my first question. damn bitch you write like this?#okay rude sam is going to bed
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#I'm not saying I'm perfect; but I'm saying I can at least cite places where I've changed my mind when given new evidence#I used to be hardline pacifist; shut down all military everywhere type thinking#but I saw the horror of what was happening in Ukraine#and it didn't take much for me to see that the only solution was to give them the weapons to defend themselves with#and sadly that means I have to admit that weapons manufacture does serve a purpose and is required even if it shouldn't be#and it means... fucking having to admit the DOD needs to exist even though I hate them#doesn't mean I don't get to think that they need to... you know... pass a fucking audit#and doesn't mean I don't think they need to be reigned in; that there's dangers to opaque cultures like military culture#and it doesn't mean... doesn't mean I like the army or the military industrial complex#just that... as I understand more about defense economics and logistics... I against what I want to see#begin to see points to making large numbers of missiles and shit because... quantity of production can bring prices down#you can end up getting a lot more for the same price; and... and you can sell them; which again I morally oppose but...#I'm coming to accept is just a fact of life when you have people willing to invade their neighbor#maybe you should sell them some weapons; recoup some of the insane spending you've done; and give them tools to defend themselves#I fucking changed my mind on this despite frankly finding it all abhorrent and thinking the US is run like a shit show#because sometimes the reality of things has to win out over what I think should be the reality of things#and sometimes the wellbeing of Ukrainians outweighs if I believe in war or not#I may not fucking be close to perfect; and there's probably plenty of places I'm wrong about shit#hell; even here I could actually somehow be wrong#(though I'm sorry... it's hard to see the people suffering horribly and not think they need to be able to defend themselves)#but at least I fucking am capable of changing my mind... which I feel like is more than some of you#you'll never fucking acknowledge that you might be doing great great great harm based purely on belief#while I in disagreeing with you at least admit I could be wrong but am acting on my best information#at least I fucking stumble and grope my way through life without the knowledge of good and evil#I'd far rather than then boldly stomp my way through life so certain I'm right; the bodies under my boots be damned#fuck you for your dogmatic points of you; and worst of all fuck you for not even meaning to be cruel or cause pain#yet still closing your eyes to any pain you do cause because you know you're actually right#you spin every last thing that defies what you believe till it only reinforces it#and I see no way to get you to sit down at the table and try and figure out what's best for everyone#because you'd just boldly proclaim you already knew and demand I agree
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IMO: Absolutely, positively spot-on. Been a software engineer from 1980 to 2016, and this just nails the tech industry economics (and phases) that I saw then, and that I see now.
Must-read. Brilliantly written and on target. Kudos and applause, OP.
If anyone wants to know why every tech company in the world right now is clamoring for AI like drowned rats scrabbling to board a ship, I decided to make a post to explain what's happening.
(Disclaimer to start: I'm a software engineer who's been employed full time since 2018. I am not a historian nor an overconfident Youtube essayist, so this post is my working knowledge of what I see around me and the logical bridges between pieces.)
Okay anyway. The explanation starts further back than what's going on now. I'm gonna start with the year 2000. The Dot Com Bubble just spectacularly burst. The model of "we get the users first, we learn how to profit off them later" went out in a no-money-having bang (remember this, it will be relevant later). A lot of money was lost. A lot of people ended up out of a job. A lot of startup companies went under. Investors left with a sour taste in their mouth and, in general, investment in the internet stayed pretty cooled for that decade. This was, in my opinion, very good for the internet as it was an era not suffocating under the grip of mega-corporation oligarchs and was, instead, filled with Club Penguin and I Can Haz Cheezburger websites.
Then around the 2010-2012 years, a few things happened. Interest rates got low, and then lower. Facebook got huge. The iPhone took off. And suddenly there was a huge new potential market of internet users and phone-havers, and the cheap money was available to start backing new tech startup companies trying to hop on this opportunity. Companies like Uber, Netflix, and Amazon either started in this time, or hit their ramp-up in these years by shifting focus to the internet and apps.
Now, every start-up tech company dreaming of being the next big thing has one thing in common: they need to start off by getting themselves massively in debt. Because before you can turn a profit you need to first spend money on employees and spend money on equipment and spend money on data centers and spend money on advertising and spend money on scale and and and
But also, everyone wants to be on the ship for The Next Big Thing that takes off to the moon.
So there is a mutual interest between new tech companies, and venture capitalists who are willing to invest $$$ into said new tech companies. Because if the venture capitalists can identify a prize pig and get in early, that money could come back to them 100-fold or 1,000-fold. In fact it hardly matters if they invest in 10 or 20 total bust projects along the way to find that unicorn.
But also, becoming profitable takes time. And that might mean being in debt for a long long time before that rocket ship takes off to make everyone onboard a gazzilionaire.
But luckily, for tech startup bros and venture capitalists, being in debt in the 2010's was cheap, and it only got cheaper between 2010 and 2020. If people could secure loans for ~3% or 4% annual interest, well then a $100,000 loan only really costs $3,000 of interest a year to keep afloat. And if inflation is higher than that or at least similar, you're still beating the system.
So from 2010 through early 2022, times were good for tech companies. Startups could take off with massive growth, showing massive potential for something, and venture capitalists would throw infinite money at them in the hopes of pegging just one winner who will take off. And supporting the struggling investments or the long-haulers remained pretty cheap to keep funding.
You hear constantly about "Such and such app has 10-bazillion users gained over the last 10 years and has never once been profitable", yet the thing keeps chugging along because the investors backing it aren't stressed about the immediate future, and are still banking on that "eventually" when it learns how to really monetize its users and turn that profit.
The pandemic in 2020 took a magnifying-glass-in-the-sun effect to this, as EVERYTHING was forcibly turned online which pumped a ton of money and workers into tech investment. Simultaneously, money got really REALLY cheap, bottoming out with historic lows for interest rates.
Then the tide changed with the massive inflation that struck late 2021. Because this all-gas no-brakes state of things was also contributing to off-the-rails inflation (along with your standard-fare greedflation and price gouging, given the extremely convenient excuses of pandemic hardships and supply chain issues). The federal reserve whipped out interest rate hikes to try to curb this huge inflation, which is like a fire extinguisher dousing and suffocating your really-cool, actively-on-fire party where everyone else is burning but you're in the pool. And then they did this more, and then more. And the financial climate followed suit. And suddenly money was not cheap anymore, and new loans became expensive, because loans that used to compound at 2% a year are now compounding at 7 or 8% which, in the language of compounding, is a HUGE difference. A $100,000 loan at a 2% interest rate, if not repaid a single cent in 10 years, accrues to $121,899. A $100,000 loan at an 8% interest rate, if not repaid a single cent in 10 years, more than doubles to $215,892.
Now it is scary and risky to throw money at "could eventually be profitable" tech companies. Now investors are watching companies burn through their current funding and, when the companies come back asking for more, investors are tightening their coin purses instead. The bill is coming due. The free money is drying up and companies are under compounding pressure to produce a profit for their waiting investors who are now done waiting.
You get enshittification. You get quality going down and price going up. You get "now that you're a captive audience here, we're forcing ads or we're forcing subscriptions on you." Don't get me wrong, the plan was ALWAYS to monetize the users. It's just that it's come earlier than expected, with way more feet-to-the-fire than these companies were expecting. ESPECIALLY with Wall Street as the other factor in funding (public) companies, where Wall Street exhibits roughly the same temperament as a baby screaming crying upset that it's soiled its own diaper (maybe that's too mean a comparison to babies), and now companies are being put through the wringer for anything LESS than infinite growth that Wall Street demands of them.
Internal to the tech industry, you get MASSIVE wide-spread layoffs. You get an industry that used to be easy to land multiple job offers shriveling up and leaving recent graduates in a desperately awful situation where no company is hiring and the market is flooded with laid-off workers trying to get back on their feet.
Because those coin-purse-clutching investors DO love virtue-signaling efforts from companies that say "See! We're not being frivolous with your money! We only spend on the essentials." And this is true even for MASSIVE, PROFITABLE companies, because those companies' value is based on the Rich Person Feeling Graph (their stock) rather than the literal profit money. A company making a genuine gazillion dollars a year still tears through layoffs and freezes hiring and removes the free batteries from the printer room (totally not speaking from experience, surely) because the investors LOVE when you cut costs and take away employee perks. The "beer on tap, ping pong table in the common area" era of tech is drying up. And we're still unionless.
Never mind that last part.
And then in early 2023, AI (more specifically, Chat-GPT which is OpenAI's Large Language Model creation) tears its way into the tech scene with a meteor's amount of momentum. Here's Microsoft's prize pig, which it invested heavily in and is galivanting around the pig-show with, to the desperate jealousy and rapture of every other tech company and investor wishing it had that pig. And for the first time since the interest rate hikes, investors have dollar signs in their eyes, both venture capital and Wall Street alike. They're willing to restart the hose of money (even with the new risk) because this feels big enough for them to take the risk.
Now all these companies, who were in varying stages of sweating as their bill came due, or wringing their hands as their stock prices tanked, see a single glorious gold-plated rocket up out of here, the likes of which haven't been seen since the free money days. It's their ticket to buy time, and buy investors, and say "see THIS is what will wring money forth, finally, we promise, just let us show you."
To be clear, AI is NOT profitable yet. It's a money-sink. Perhaps a money-black-hole. But everyone in the space is so wowed by it that there is a wide-spread and powerful conviction that it will become profitable and earn its keep. (Let's be real, half of that profit "potential" is the promise of automating away jobs of pesky employees who peskily cost money.) It's a tech-space industrial revolution that will automate away skilled jobs, and getting in on the ground floor is the absolute best thing you can do to get your pie slice's worth.
It's the thing that will win investors back. It's the thing that will get the investment money coming in again (or, get it second-hand if the company can be the PROVIDER of something needed for AI, which other companies with venture-back will pay handsomely for). It's the thing companies are terrified of missing out on, lest it leave them utterly irrelevant in a future where not having AI-integration is like not having a mobile phone app for your company or not having a website.
So I guess to reiterate on my earlier point:
Drowned rats. Swimming to the one ship in sight.
#tech industry economics primer#economics#corporate greed and desperation#what's behind AI explosion#tech industry#ai bubble#wall street#off-topic:#the only software specialty#i've seen that's been economy-proof#(or at least economy-resistant)#over the last 40 years#is embedded development#specifically#firmware for dumb appliances#refrigerators#microwave ovens#specialty tools#etc.#written for cheap processors#with dead simple roll-your-own operating systems#demand for this never dies#and there are very few people with the training and the skills#to do it#that said#lot of C coding and some assembly language#and some EE background necessary#(though less than you'd think)#so not attractive for many developers#saving for future reference
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