#drug policy analysis

[trendynewsnow]

Increase in Overdose Deaths Among Black Americans Amid National Decline

Decrease in Overdose Deaths Amid Ongoing Racial Disparities Recent federal data indicates a significant decline in overdose deaths across the nation, with a reduction of more than 12 percent reported between May 2023 and May 2024. This noteworthy development marks a crucial step in the United States’ ongoing battle against the devastating impacts of fentanyl. The White House announced that this…

[projectchampionz]

THE USE OF POLICE INTELLIGENCE IN DRUG TRAFFICKING CASES

THE USE OF POLICE INTELLIGENCE IN DRUG TRAFFICKING CASES: A COMPARATIVE STUDY 1.1 Introduction Drug trafficking remains a significant global issue, posing threats to public safety, economic stability, and national security. Law enforcement agencies rely heavily on intelligence gathering to combat drug trafficking organizations (DTOs). Police intelligence plays a critical role in identifying…

[reasonsforhope]

"For the first time in decades, public health data shows a sudden and hopeful drop in drug overdose deaths across the U.S.

"This is exciting," said Dr. Nora Volkow, head of the National Institute On Drug Abuse [NIDA], the federal laboratory charged with studying addiction. "This looks real. This looks very, very real."

National surveys compiled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention already show an unprecedented decline in drug deaths of roughly 10.6 percent. That's a huge reversal from recent years when fatal overdoses regularly increased by double-digit percentages.

Some researchers believe the data will show an even larger decline in drug deaths when federal surveys are updated to reflect improvements being seen at the state level, especially in the eastern U.S.

"In the states that have the most rapid data collection systems, we’re seeing declines of twenty percent, thirty percent," said Dr. Nabarun Dasgupta, an expert on street drugs at the University of North Carolina.

According to Dasgupta's analysis, which has sparked discussion among addiction and drug policy experts, the drop in state-level mortality numbers corresponds with similar steep declines in emergency room visits linked to overdoses.

Dasgupta was one of the first researchers to detect the trend. He believes the national decline in street drug deaths is now at least 15 percent and could mean as many as 20,000 fewer fatalities per year.

"Today, I have so much hope"

After years of wrenching drug deaths that seemed all but unstoppable, some researchers, front-line addiction workers, members of law enforcement, and people using street drugs voiced caution about the apparent trend.

Roughly 100,000 deaths are still occurring per year. Street drug cocktails including fentanyl, methamphetamines, xylazine and other synthetic chemicals are more poisonous than ever.

"I think we have to be careful when we get optimistic and see a slight drop in overdose deaths," said Dan Salter, who heads a federal drug interdiction program in the Atlanta-Carolinas region. "The last thing we want to do is spike the ball."

But most public health experts and some people living with addiction told NPR they believe catastrophic increases in drug deaths, which began in 2019, have ended, at least for now. Many said a widespread, meaningful shift appears underway.

"Some of us have learned to deal with the overdoses a lot better," said Kevin Donaldson, who uses fentanyl and xylazine on the street in Burlington, Vermont.

According to Donaldson, many people using fentanyl now carry naloxone, a medication that reverses most opioid overdoses. He said his friends also use street drugs with others nearby, ready to offer aid and support when overdoses occur.

He believes these changes - a response to the increasingly toxic street drug supply - mean more people like himself are surviving.

"For a while we were hearing about [drug deaths] every other day. When was the last one we heard about? Maybe two weeks ago? That's pretty few and far between," he said.

His experience is reflected in data from the Vermont Department of Health, which shows a 22 percent decline in drug deaths in 2024.

"The trends are definitely positive," said Dr. Keith Humphreys, a nationally respected drug policy researcher at Stanford University. "This is going to be the best year we've had since all of this started."

"A year ago when overdose deaths continued to rise, I was really struggling with hope," said Brad Finegood, who directs the overdose crisis response in Seattle.

Deaths in King County, Washington, linked to all drugs have dropped by 15 percent in the first half of 2024. Fatal overdoses caused by street fentanyl have dropped by 20 percent.

"Today, I have so much hope," Finegood said.

-via NPR, September 18, 2024. Article continues below with an exploration of the whys (mostly unknown) and some absolutely fucking incredible statistics.

Why the sudden and hopeful shift? Most experts say it's a mystery

While many people offered theories about why the drop in deaths is happening at unprecedented speed, most experts agreed that the data doesn't yet provide clear answers.

Some pointed to rapid improvements in the availability and affordability of medical treatments for fentanyl addiction. "Expansion of naloxone and medications for opioid use disorder — these strategies worked," said Dr. Volkow at NIDA.

"We've almost tripled the amount of naloxone out in the community," said Finegood. He noted that one survey in the Seattle area found 85 percent of high-risk drug users now carry the overdose-reversal medication.

Dr. Rahul Gupta, the White House drug czar, said the drop in drug deaths shows a path forward.

"This is the largest decrease on record and the fifth consecutive month of recorded decreases," he said.

Gupta called for more funding for addiction treatment and healthcare services, especially in Black and Native American communities where overdose deaths remain catastrophically high.

"There is no way we're going to beat this epidemic by not focusing on communities that are often marginalized, underserved and communities of color," Gupta said.

"Overdose deaths in Ohio are down 31 percent"

Indeed, in many states in the eastern and central U.S. where improvements are largest, the sudden drop in drug deaths stunned some observers who lived through the darkest days of the fentanyl overdose crisis.

"This year overdose deaths [in Ohio] are down 31 percent," said Dennis Couchon, a harm reduction activist. "The deaths were just plummeting. The data has never moved like this."

"While the mortality data for 2024 is incomplete and subject to change, Ohio is now in the ninth consecutive month of a historic and unexpected drop in overdose deaths," said the organization Harm Reduction Ohio in a statement.

Missouri is seeing a similar trend that appears to be accelerating. After dropping by 10 percent last year, preliminary data shows drug deaths in the state have now fallen roughly 34 percent in the second quarter of 2024.

"It absolutely seems things are going in the right direction, and it's something we should feel pleased about," said Dr. Rachel Winograd, director of addiction science at the University of Missouri St. Louis, who also noted that drug deaths remain too high.

"It feels wonderful and great," said Dr. Mark Levine, head of the Vermont Health Department. "We need encouraging data like this and it will help sustain all of us who are actively involved in trying to have an impact here."

Levine, too, said there's still "plenty of work left to do."" ...

Dasgupta, the researcher at the University of North Carolina, agreed more needs to be done to help people in addiction recover when they're ready.

But he said keeping more people alive is a crucial first step that seemed impossible only a year ago.

"A fifteen or twenty percent [drop in deaths] is a really big number, an enormous impact," he said, calling for more research to determine how to keep the trend going.

"If interventions are what's driving this decline, then let's double down on those interventions."

-article via NPR, September 18, 2024

[gabrielsbubblegumbitch]

got any silly voxval headcannons? (Maybe velvette too idk)

like for example who cooks out of the three of them

Of course you can <3 I'm a really angsty girlie so I don't know how silly they actually are but there you go:

None of them can cook, but that's not really a problem for Vox and Velvette. Vox could survive on plain bread and black coffee for eternity, while Velvette could eat only candies. Val, on the other hand, is the ultimate hedonist. He's all about the tasty, full-fat fast food or gourmet stuff, and he's always pushing for takeout. Come on, guys, we're fucking rich, let's order something. Sure, they could hire someone to cook for them, but Vox is too paranoid to let an outsider near their food. He's still on the hunt for a chef who can match Val's extravagant tastes and is willing to sign off soul. If they had to pick someone to cook, Vox would probably be the best bet since he's the only one who can actually follow a recipe.

Velvette is the smartest when it comes to managing finances. Vox technically doesn't like to waste money but he has a taste for luxurious stuff, he can't resist an expensive car, fucking show-off. Valentino basically burns money on every useless shit he likes, I bet those crystals he badazzled his gun with were real diamons.

Velvette helps Val maintain his fluff, and he styles her hair. It's a cute little trade-off they've got going on.

Valentino has a habit of breaking electronic devices and downloading malware. Vox hates him for it.

Vox can easily go 72h without sleep, fueled by coke and rage. Valentino occasionally drugs his coffee to put him down to sleep, because after 68th hour all electronics in the tower starts malfunctioning.

Val used to be a full-time performer, but now he's more like a RuPaul—lending his face to the brand and only occasionally gracing the stage. But every time he does perform, Vox makes sure to be there front and center.

Their schedules are very incompatible and they have to spend a lot of time managing their businesses but they have weekly appointments to do catch up and discuss strategy. Those are usually very unserious, they end up hitting the bong and playing Mario Cart.

There was this one time Vox tried hitting on Velvette because she's totally his type. It was awkward as hell, and they both agreed to never speak of it again. Valentino has no idea about it.

Valentino would really want to have a dog but Vox really likes dogs so he doesn't allow him to get one by imposing strict anti-pet policy in the tower.

Val knows all of Vox's and Velvette's kinks and sometimes produces custom porn for them as gifts.

As much as they love spending time together, Val and Velvette can't stand watching TV with Vox because he gets overly emotional and doesn't allow to skip commercials because he enjoys them

Vox occasionally invites Val to be a guest judge on reality shows, which always skyrockets ratings but sometimes ends nasty for the contestants.

Val's obsessed with textures, especially nice fabrics. Give him a nice fluffy blanket and he will shut up for 15 minutes fixated on touching it.

Vox, with his business and strategic management degree, sometimes tries to pitch these ideas to Velvette and Valentino, he's like Guys, have you considered using the BCG matrix? Ever heard of SWOT analysis? We should discuss KPIs. They mock him relentlessly for it.

Val once tried putting drag makeup on Vox's face, and let's just say the result was... less than glamorous.

During their honeymoon phase, Vox and Val fucked everywhere. At first, Velvette found it amusing, but eventually, she grew to hate it. She finally snapped when she found out they'd fucked on the dinner table and she set it on fire.

Val "secretly" ghostwrote some trashy smut novels (they are absolutely horrible, worst Wattpad shit you could dig out). Vox secretly bought and read every single one, finding plenty of references to himself along the way.

Vox loves it when Val wears stripper platforms, even though it makes their height difference even more ridiculous.

Valentino's wardrobe takes two entire rooms and still expands. Vox doesn't know how to stop it.

Vox owns a few lingerie sets, only because Val loses his fucking mind whenever he wears them. Velvette designed them herself and keeps photos of Vox wearing them as blackmail material, just in case.

[springsmile]

over my shoulder || 03

18+ | h. shinso x f. reader

series masterlist.

warnings: non-con, smut, pre-established trauma (r*pe), extreme anxiety/paranoia, victim blaming/shaming, abuse of prescriptions, self harm, suicidal ideation, disassociation, negativity around hospitalization, violent intrusive thoughts, kidnapping, murder, specific reader characterizations, manipulation, anorexia/bulimia behaviors

** reader's quirk is enhanced senses. upon activation, emotions and sensations are pretty much exacerbated. reader never learns how to channel or control it to its full potential, only to turn it on and off.

one time is a coincidence, twice is… an oddity?

your door is open again— well, you’d left it open, but it was acute angularly. you only leave it open a crack.

was there a draft? you raise your hand in the air, and unwittingly activate your quirk, heightening your sense of touch. the flow of air is ordinary, breezing around your hand slowly, and with a cheap low pressure.

there’s nothing, as such. it wasn’t as though you could afford a better ac system.

everything was in its right place. the knick-knacks cluttering your windowsill, your bedsheets creased in the corners, comforter balled in a misshapen lump in the center— everything was eerily correct… to your knowledge, at least. as if time had never raked across it. your stomach tightens, and you shift your gaze to the bathroom door, equally as ajar.

your scale is still slotted against the toilet, and while the occasional meeting of the porcelain and the glass did make you wince, it was more accessible in that position. upon further analysis, even the curtain was drawn back and the fabric ripples. it might’ve been a touch juvenile, but the ever-present fear of a form appearing shadowy from behind the polka-dots was stifling.

still having been equipped with your quirk, your gaze becomes more intent, hardening with each blink. it’s still bunched to the left, and is just that. still.

your quivering hand hovers in the air for a pregnant pause, suspended by uncertainty and fright. you inhale, which does nothing to quell your rampant heart, and seize the curtain—but when you pull it toward yourself, nothing is there. just the protective plastic and cheap design.

but when you drop your head on your pillow that night, your head encounters some light difficulty committing your habitual tossing. you lift your head, and peer down. bemused, your fingers ghost over your bare pillow.

there’s a new girl at work.

company policy, which you’ve been forced to commit to memory, states that hair must be a solid color, and a natural color at that. her hair is anything but. there's raccoon tails and pastels melting together, done indisputably by her hand, but adds to her charm and absent-minded character.

seniority rules, and so, it's decided she spends her first day with you. Initially, she begins her introduction by informing you the cheese danishes in the store's cafe were her drug, proceeded to mime snorting a line of coke. your laugh is ungodly at best, and your throat airily expands with the sound. clarity hit her seconds later, where she meekly asks you not to tell your superiors she said that.

"don't tell me you're an op, y/n." she murmurs to you with pressed palms.

"umm... i'm not?"

she proceeds to make small, correctable errors, and hits it off with the customers. you study her rapport with apt awe. every so often, she runs her fingers along the glossy spines of moby dick and war and peace whenever we pass them, and she remains there for a pregnant pause.

your breaks aligned, as she would be shadowing you for the day. the break room is desolate, save for her and you, and a shade of white that elicits a vague memory of TV static before your eyes. in your periphery is the equally disconcerting bright phone screen in yuka’s hands (nails a collection of color that don’t compliment the other in any particular way) that stains your side view. but you can make out the familiar formatting of the tumblr website. her phone ringer is on, so as her thumbs flit across the bottom of the bright glass, it goes something like ‘pcka-pcka-pcka’ but you’d have to produce a sound with your mouth that required you to press your lips together and suck them in, in order to replicate it correctly.

you like her.

you might’ve assumed kinship due to her appearance— it's anything but conventional. or maybe it's her manner. quick, blunt, but doused with sweet sincerity;

“so, it turns out that’s not how you pronounce it–I think that’s where the disconnect occurred.” she’d stated matter of factly, but there wasn’t a trace of animosity.

with darkened eyes, the customer’s mouth protrudes. his upper lip furls into a snarl.

“No. It’s accor-di-ance.” he insisted.

“accordance.” she said with a gentle smile. “but it’s alright–we found it! I hope you enjoy it.”

he left contentedly, despite his earlier erroneous insistence. flummoxed, you remained silent during the exchange. selfishly, you didn’t feel the need to interject. that, and you deduced that yuka capable enough to sort out the issue herself.

either way, it's difficult not to acquiesce her boba tea date request. you have some leftover money from making rent early, and it's not like you had anyone to call a friend.

it could be a safe change. hopefully. you’d take the leap. what could go wrong?

"if you were boba–with the pearls–you would be taro. just because I like the color. It's pretty. just like you." yuka says in the midst of alphabetizing and brain-racking. you’d been section detailing fiction. yanking out titles that didn't belong in the various shelves, or were in the wrong order. tedious, but it wasn't hard.

the warm flush that encompasses your cheeks is alarming— you hold them in your hands dazedly.

"oh." you utter stupidly. "thank you."

she giggles, and you’re instantly envious of its melodiousness.

“what section is this in?”

you pull out the device that displays inventory and genre, and twist the book around, where the scanner is particularly blinding, and survey the tiny print.

“social sciences.” you answer, watching the screen illuminate her gentle features.

she bites her bottom lip—it’s plump and full, swollen with color and life. “where’s that again, (y/n)?”

the shelves stood half way to the ceiling, and it was difficult to see around them. but you could navigate the labyrinth with ease. and so you weaved your way through the bays and yielded to a few elderly patrons, before halting upon the social sciences section.

“remember that the subsections aren’t labeled. you’ll figure it out by eyeballing the titles carefully.” you say. something about her charisma and unconventionality brought you solace, and a smidge of relaxedness.

she raises her wrist and inspected her watch.

“it’s time for our break now, isn’t it?” she asks fervently.

you crack a tentative grin at her. “it’s 5 already? then yeah, go on.”

“y/n!” a barista calls out with plum crescents under her eyes. you stand from your ornately ivory wired seat— you have angry red imprints on the backs of your thighs— and retrieve your sugary boba tea.

admittedly, you’d never really liked that herby-earthy taste. but something about the sparkling excitement in yuka’s eyes made you inclined to spend a minute amount.

she watches you earnestly, waiting for you to slurp up the pearls and taro. you do, and you unsuccessfully suppress a cringe.

“it’s not bad.” you lie, still working on chewing the onslaught of saccharine.

she studies your face for a few seconds, before leaning back in her chair with a pout. “you hate it.”

you nod solemnly. “i do.”

her chest heaves with a hearty laugh, eyes crinkling in the corners and mouth falling half open. her teeth are aligned perfectly. you wondered if she’d had braces.

“i appreciate you trying to spare my feelings, but don’t force yourself to drink it. i can give you the money back for it—“

“no.” you interject, pausing when you realize the harshness of your tone. “no.” you soften. “don’t even worry. i got it.”

she didn’t seem deterred by your insistence, but relinquished anyway with a sigh.

“alright, y/n.” she huffs. “you win this time. next time, i’ll treat you.”

you smile small. “okay.”

you fall into light conversation about your boss, who flirts with all the girls staffed.

“when i was taking out a book off of the bookseller favorites display, he told me he’d ‘fill my hole.’” you scowl. “fuckin’ weirdo. why would he say it that way?”

yuka giggles, hiding her smile behind a heavily ringed hand.

“i can’t believe there’s so much drama at my new workplace! you have to keep me updated, y/n. i’ll let you know if he says any pervy shit to me.”

you marvel at her words. this was an invitation. to friendship? you weren’t positive. but it was the start of something new. and for once, the potential of change didn’t frighten you.

words flowed with great ease past your tongue, much to your shock. her very character assuaged your nerves, briefly, and you’d spoken more than you had in months.

out of nowhere, your hair stands on the back of your unexpectedly. you throw your chin over your shoulder, attempting to glimpse the cause of your paranoia. but besides the bustle of patrons, there was nothing you could pick out.

“you okay?” yuka asks concernedly, eyebrows pinched at the middle.

“yup.” you answer unconvincingly. “just fine.”

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

deAdder

* * * *

[from Robert B. Hubbell]

Blaming Democrats for losses in 2024 is not helpful, fair, or accurate

I spent much of the day drafting responses to readers who forwarded articles / posts claiming that Democratic losses in 2024 were due to the fact that they had “lost touch” or “alienated” or “failed to listen to” working class voters or male voters. I won’t link to those articles / posts. They are ubiquitous.

The notion that Democrats “failed to listen to” or “lost touch” with the middle and working classes is demonstrably wrong. Virtually every policy promoted by VP Harris was designed to help the middle class, blue-collar workers, and the working poor:

Childcare tax credits, earned income credits for the working poor, lower prescription drug prices, protecting affordable healthcare, increasing the minimum wage, protecting unions and workers’ rights, providing for in-home care for elderly and homebound, subsidizing first-time homebuyers, building affordable housing, student loan forgiveness, prosecuting price gouging, and a middle-class tax cut.

To the extent that the Democrats speak through policies, virtually all Democratic policies seek to improve the lives of the middle class, working class, and working poor. On a policy level, the assertion Democrats “forgot” or “abandoned” the working class is wrong and corrosive.

What, then, is the source of the false notion that Democrats have “forgotten” the working class? I don’t know for certain, but I have a guess. (I invite others to weigh in; I was an English major and a securities litigation lawyer. I claim no expertise in political analysis.)

Many (not all) in the middle and working classes disagree with Democratic support for women’s reproductive rights, LGBTQ rights, equal voting rights for Black citizens, and the fight against human-caused climate change. To the extent that Democrats have parted ways with the cultural and social views of many in the working class and middle class, those groups feel “alienated” and “ignored.”

But it is no answer to those feelings of abandonment and alienation to abandon the struggle for full equality for women, LGBTQ rights, voting rights for Black citizens, and protection of the environment.

So, yes, there is a growing gap between Democratic policies on social issues and many (not all) in the middle and working classes, especially males.

Case in point: Despite unprecedented support for unions by Biden and Harris, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters refused to endorse Kamala Harris. The only rational course of action for unions is to support Kamala Harris. Why, then, did the Teamsters refuse to do so?

My belief: A majority of Teamsters—largely male working-class voters—disagreed with Kamala Harris and Democrats on social issues, like women’s reproductive rights, LGBTQ rights, Black voting rights, and efforts to fight human-caused climate change.

So, the fiction that Democrats have “ignored” the working and middle classes is wrong on the merits. It is only on social issues at the core of the Democratic Party’s commitment to social justice that there has been a divergence of opinion.

The answer to the above conundrum is not to abandon the social justice values that are at the core of the Democratic Party but to expand the voting base that is the backbone of the party.

If anyone tells you that Democrats lost in 2024 because they “abandoned” the working class, ask them specifically how Democrats did so. Be prepared to list Kamala Harris’s policies designed to improve the lives of the working class. Ask them how extending the GOP tax cut for millionaires and corporations will benefit the working class. Ask them how the GOP plan to kill Obamacare will help the working class. Or how imposing a 10% tariff on all imported goods will help the working class.

The fiction that Democrats “abandoned” the working class is designed to set Democrats against one another. It is beginning to gain traction because gullible media is willingly spreading the lie. Don’t be seduced by the fiction. Democrats must remain loyal to their roots of social justice and dignity for all. It is the right thing to do. It is the only thing to do. Political victory without justice for all would be hollow and bitter. We are better than that.

[Robert B. Hubbell Newsletter]

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Myah Ward at Politico:

Donald Trump vowed to “rescue” the Denver suburb of Aurora, Colorado, from the rapists, “blood thirsty criminals,” and “most violent people on earth” he insists are ruining the “fabric” of the country and its culture: immigrants. Trump’s message in Aurora, a city that has become a central part of his campaign speeches in the final stretch to Election Day, marks another example of how the former president has escalated his xenophobic and racist rhetoric against migrants and minority groups he says are genetically predisposed to commit crimes. The supposed threat migrants pose is the core part of the former president’s closing argument, as he promises his base that he’s the one who can save the country from a group of people he calls “animals,” “stone cold killers,” the “worst people,” and the “enemy from within.” He is no longer just talking about keeping immigrants out of the country, building a wall and banning Muslims from entering the United States. Trump now warns that migrants have already invaded, destroying the country from inside its borders, which he uses as a means to justify a second-term policy agenda that includes building massive detention camps and conducting mass deportations.

In his lengthy speech Friday, Trump delivered a broadside against the thousands of Venezuelan migrants in Aurora. And he declared that he would use the Alien Enemies Act, which allows a president to authorize rounding up or removing people who are from enemy countries in times of war, to pursue migrant gangs and criminal networks. “Kamala [Harris] has imported an army of illegal alien gang members and migrant criminals from the dungeons of the third world … from prisons and jails and insane asylums and mental institutions, and she has had them resettled beautifully into your community to prey upon innocent American citizens,” he said.

His rhetoric has veered more than ever into conspiracy theories and rumors, like when he amplified false claims about Haitian immigrants in Ohio eating pets. And Trump has demonized minority groups and used increasingly dark, graphic imagery to talk about migrants in every one of his speeches since the Sept. 10 presidential debate, according to a POLITICO review of more than 20 campaign events. It’s a stark escalation over the last month of what some experts in political rhetoric, fascism, and immigration say is a strong echo of authoritarians and Nazi ideology. “He’s been taking Americans and his followers on a journey since really 2015 conditioning them … step by step instilling hatred in a group, and then escalating,” said Ruth Ben-Ghiat, a history professor at New York University who writes about authoritarianism and fascism and has been outspoken about the dangers of a second Trump administration.

“So immigrants are crime. Immigrants are anarchy. They’re taking their jobs, but now they’re also animals who are going to kill us or eat our pets or eat us,” she continued. “That’s how you get people to feel that whatever is done to them, as in mass deportation, rounding them up, putting them in camps, is OK.” The Trump campaign said while the “media obsesses over rhetoric,” the former president is responding to voters’ concerns. [...]

Trump has long deployed racist attacks for political gain, including spreading conspiracy theories about whether former President Barack Obama, the nation’s first Black president, was born in the United States. And when he launched his first campaign in 2015, Trump said Mexico was “not sending its best,” calling immigrants from the country “rapists” who are bringing in crime and drugs. He also promised that day to build a “great big wall.”

But times have changed, and so has he. The country has moved to the right on immigration — including the Democratic Party and Trump’s opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, the daughter of Jamaican and Indian immigrants. Trump repeatedly bashed Harris as “dumb,” questioned her racial identity and has called her a “DEI” candidate — perpetuating the idea that women and people of color can only be in positions of power because of quotas and preferential treatment. Harris has touted her record prosecuting transnational gangs, drug cartels and human traffickers and has promised strict enforcement at the Southern border — an effort to appease Americans’ concern about illegal migration. The vice president has vowed to go even further than the Biden administration’s crackdown on asylum. As the political conversation around immigration has shifted, Trump has not only intensified his rhetoric, but his policy plans.

He has increasingly targeted specific communities, including Springfield, Ohio, Charleroi, Pennsylvania and Aurora, arguing that immigrants are destroying American towns and cities across the country and using those examples to call for large-scale federal response. Trump has spent the last month on the trail elevating the claims about those communities — even as local officials have been denying these allegations and asking the Republican nominee to stand down. Trump on Friday used false stories about gang takeovers in Aurora as he announced he would remove migrants connected to gangs under an “Operation Aurora” based on presidential wartime powers under the Alien Enemies Act. (While police in Aurora have encountered some gang activity tied to a Venezuelan group, there has been no gang takeover in Colorado.)

Politico takes a look at how Donald Trump’s racist and anti-immigrant hatred-fueled messaging has gotten more dark, authoritarian, and apocalyptic in tone.

[sirenjose]

Golden Rose Theater Analysis

Here’s a short summary of the events:

In the pre-event, we learn Scrooge was the founder of the Golden Rose Theater and created the play “The Coin of Lachesis”. Lachesis was the lead actress. The theater started to go bankrupt when people lost interest, and Lachesis supposedly died in a fall during the final performance of the play. Ronald’s father was blamed for her death due to being the mechanic in charge of the lift at the time. As a result, he was imprisoned and died of a severe cold 1 year later. Scrooge chooses Bella rather than Kroto to replace Lachesis.

The Detective is called to investigate by his client DM, who had been corresponding via letter with Bella and wanted to know why she’d stopped communicating with him. Jingle Bells prevents the Detective from seeing Bella, but Ronald helps the Detective get into the theater. At this point, he meets all of the members of the theater and gathers information about everything that’s happened. He eventually learns that Kroto had been the one pretending to be Bella to send letters to DM.

When Bella is reported to have died in a fall accident, Sheriff Jose calls the Detective for help in investigating. It’s during this investigation that the Detective learns about Quivering Flower, a drug Bella had been using. He also learns that the large sum Scrooge had received to rebuild the theater had come from Lachesis’ compensation after she “fell” to her death. Eventually, the truth comes out. Bella had actually died due to poisoning from Quivering Flower use. When Scrooge discovered this, he had Kroto help him pretend Bella had instead died from a fall, in the hope he’d earn compensation from her death like after Lachesis’. In the epilogue of the event, we learn that Kroto left the theater to join a different theater group and has a script called “Kroto’s Chain”. From Scrooge, we learn he had been a beneficiary on Lachesis’ insurance policy, along with Kroto and Lachesis herself. Finally we learn Ronald became the new owner of the Golden Rose Theater, with DM recommending a person for the role of leading actress.

To start things off, let’s look at Bella, who we never get to speak to. She was a foreigner from France, beautiful, talented, and liked meeting powerful people, but she was regarded as arrogant and having odd habits. We learn later that she was mildly addicted to Quivering Flower, which was the reason Bella repeatedly missed rehearsals, as she tended to get sick from the drug’s side effects. This was also why she could occasionally be found practicing alone at midnight, due to her use of Quivering Flower, which she was trying to hide. For Bella, she apparently thought it better to die before the curtain rises if she couldn’t put on a perfect show. This is exactly what happens, as she dies from Quivering Flower poisoning. Scrooge attempts to take advantage of this by trying to make it look like she instead fell to her death. Interestingly, even after the Detective reveals the truth, the newspapers still reported Bella as having fallen to her death.

Many of the other members of the theater didn’t look well on her. Ronald thinks Kroto would be able to put on a better show than Bella, as Bella’s performances had been fluctuating lately. Commander calls her personality not likeable, and says she isn’t close to the other members. She is adored by the gentlemen in town though, who gifts her things like she was a queen. Commander also calls her a lunatic after she says she’d rather die than not deliver a flawless performance. Encore describes Kroto as having to clean up Bella’s messes whenever Bella misses rehearsals.

She does have a number of supporters. Sparrow is the most vocal who gets incredibly emotional whenever someone disrespects her. Jingle Bells is also really affected by Bella’s death, as is Phonograph, who got upset when Scrooge asks Kroto to move into the Bella’s suite immediately after Bella’s death.

Bella wasn’t someone who really blended in with everyone else. She stood out in many ways, due to her reputation, being a foreigner and the new lead actress, and her personality. Mary was a (French) queen in a foreign land that wasn’t her home country (Austria), which were contributing factors to the ill feelings about her as well as her eventual execution. Bella, like Mary, appears to have been somewhat isolated in the theater company.

Moreover, in a secret letter after her execution, it was said people would forget about her death and even her existence as a queen, instead they would take pleasure in trampling on the royal family and appointing a new king. Similarly, Bella was hailed as a popular actress by aristocrats, but ended up buried in the daily news and forgotten after being reported as a fatal accident in the newspaper, with people like DM moving on and seeking other “beautiful things”.

Finally, there’s how Mary says the Queen is the easiest piece to take. With Bella, you can replace “Queen” with “leading actress”. The Leading Actress is the easiest to lose, and thus ends up being the most replaced. She’s someone who’s celebrated when she’s on a glamourous stage but is cut down when she’s not performing well.

For Bella, the ideal she was likely aiming for was Lachesis, and she was intentionally trying to mimic her. There are several hints to this. From Bella’s accessory Perfect Marionette, the description is: “Become ‘her’, or destroy her.” The first “her” is Lachesis, while the second is Bella. Then there’s how in Act 2 Kroto mentions hearing Bella say “Lachesis, are you calling me?”. These were likely hallucinations from using Quivering Flower. There’s also how in the official “Bella Donna! Bella Donna!” video, Bella appears to express how she struggled to be the “ideal Bella” but was unsuccessful and ended up mentally trapped. All of this was in part due to how often Bella was compared to Lachesis, which obviously stressed her out.

The introduction for the story mentions “Atropos using the death of her sister, Lachesis, to assume her identity”. If Atropos is assuming Lachesis’ identity, there’s a good chance Bella was trying (and failing) to do the same. If she’d been unable to deliver this “flawless” performance (as Lachesis), that would tie in with how Bella dies before the performance begins. Exactly what Bella says (“If I can’t deliver a flawless performance, I’d rather die before the curtains are drawn”) comes true.

Speaking of the videos, the 1st trailer for the Golden Theater event (Atropos Ropes) appears to be “Bella as seen from the outside”, while the later one (where she sings “Bella Donna! Bella Donna”) is the inner Bella. Bella was the kind of person who’d do anything for a play. She was trying to make up for her inner fear that she’d fail to become her ideal, as she’d feel worthless due to all the pressure she was receiving. She’s afraid of not meeting the expectations of those around her. The pressure she felt continued to increase, leading to her addiction to Quivering Flower to worsen and thus eventually causing her death.

Regarding a possible model for Bella, she might come from La Traviata, an opera based on La Dame aux Camélias, a novel (which also became a play) by Alexandre Dumas. La Traviata means “the fallen woman” or “the one who goes astray” and refers to the main character Violetta, a courtesan.

In the novel, Dumas tells the tragic love story of a courtesan, Marguerite Gautier, who sacrificed herself for her lover, Armand Duval, a young bourgeois. In the story, when Armand's father begs her not to ruin his hope of a career and position by marrying Armand, she acquiesces and leaves her lover. However, when poverty and terminal illness overwhelm her, Marguerite discovers that Armand has not lost his love for her. By the end, she keeps hiding that she’s not well, and dies without letting anyone but her trusted friends know of her physical ailment. She eventually dies of tuberculosis. Marguerite is nicknamed la dame aux camélias or “the lady of the camellias”, because she wears a white camellia when she’s available to her lovers, and a red camellia when she is unavailable.

The detail about the red and white camellias parallels the red and white scarves used in the Golden Theater event. Since DM received a red scarf from “Bella” (who was actually Kroto), that would explain why DM stopped receiving communication from her after.

Specifically, Bella may be based on the actress Sarah Bernhardt, who was a big hit as Marguerite in La Traviata. IBella’s hairstyle is likely modeled after Sarah Bernhardt’s.

Sarah was so great she was referred to as the “golden voice”, “the most famous actress the world has ever known”, “the divine Sarah”, and “the queen of the pose and the princess of the gesture” by artists of the time. Her life was also shrouded in numerous rumors. These kind of details were likely inspirations for Bella (who was also seen as being great by her admirers, but also was seen as having odd habits and likely had rumors spread about her by those who didn’t like her).

Let’s move on to Kroto. She was first shown alongside Scrooge in a newspaper reporting Lachesis’ death. She gradually became popular after Lachesis was gone. It was her dream to become a famous actress like Lachesis, but that didn’t come true as Bella became the new leading actress instead. She does replace Bella whenever she gets sick from Quivering flower, allowing Kroto to improve her acting ability. At some point, Kroto replies to one of DM’s letters intended for Bella after falsely claiming to be Bella. During this correspondence, DM gives her Quivering Flower, which she never uses. She stops responding soon after she gives DM a red scarf, which results in DM hiring Inference to investigate.

Eventually, the Detective exposes Kroto’s lie to DM via the scarf. To pacify him, Kroto got Bella to help in exchange for giving Bella more Quivering Flower. Bella uses it due to how the performances coming up and dies as a result. When Scrooge discovers Bella’s death, he has Kroto help him make it look like Bella instead died from a fall to get compensation money. When the Detective starts to figure out the truth, Scrooge tries to pin the blame on Kroto, and thus she loses trust in him. After the case has been completed, we learn Kroto left Golden Rose Theater to join with a theater. During this time, she meets up with Inference again and reveals how everything she’s done has been to present “an opening act worthy of attention and a finale worthy of praise”.

This was why, after failing to become leading actress, she sought out patronage (a stepping stone for her career) in the form of DM. That’s also why she imitated Bella and sought the things that Bella didn’t want. One of those items was the red scarf she gave to DM. If Kroto hadn’t done any of these things, the Detective wouldn’t have been asked to come and investigate. If he hadn’t come to investigate and unraveled the lies around the theater, Kroto’s lie to DM wouldn’t have been discovered. It was because her lie was revealed to DM that she gave Bella the Quivering Flower, which caused Bella’s death, which led to Scrooge having Kroto help fake Bella’s death. Inference discovers this as well, resulting in Kroto being abandoned by Scrooge when he tried to save his own hide, and thus is a contributing factor for why she leaves the theater in the end.

All these things, this “chain” of events parallels how Kroto is Clotho, the youngest of the 3 Greek Fates. She was the goddess in charge of spinning the threads that determined a person’s fate, the one who decided when a person would be born and die. The other 2 were Lachesis and Atropos. Lachesis was in charge of measuring the thread of life spun by Clotho. She decided how much life each person had. Atropos was in charge of cutting the thread, the one who decided how each person would die, and ended their lives after cutting their thread. Lachesis means “to obtain by lot, by fate, or by the will of the gods”, while Atropos translates to “inevitable” and was known as “the inflexible one”.

The leading actress who performed in “The Coin of Lachesis” was Lachesis, and she played the role of Lachesis too. Unfortunately, the shaper and allotter of the thread dies before the event begins. In this case, this could mean chaos is created due to the loss of the one responsible for correctly drawing the thread. Bella on the other hand is Atropos, even though she’s never referred to as Atropos. This could mean, in the end, Bella was unable to play the role of the one who “cuts the thread Clotho spun”. This relates to Scrooge’s skin description: “When the ropes of destiny intertwine, who would become our Atropos?”. This shows how they needed an “Atropos”, as it seems like the threads were starting to tangle now with Lachesis gone. But Bella was unable to fill that role, and she dies later. With both of them gone, the threads tangle even further.

This could be why a “tangled thread” remains at the end of the Golden Rose Theater event. Based on the newspaper at the end, we see how it doesn’t really seem to matter to the public how Bella actually died, or how Scrooge made use of Lachesis’ compensation in the past, or how they didn’t seem interested in knowing why Bella took Quivering Flower despite the risks. Put another way, this is why there are “loose ends” (aka, questions without answers), since “Atropos” wasn’t there to “cut” them.

Kroto and this tangled thread is likely what Ronald is referring to in his skin description: “It's you, the strings that weave our destiny - let it become the web that entangles us all”. The threads did indeed tangle everyone in them.

Going back to the script title “Kroto’s Chains”, chains can refer to a series of connected elements. As I mentioned earlier, Kroto caused a series of events due to her actions. Chains can also be defined as something that confines, binds, or retrains. This can also refer to bearing a burden, bondage, or lack of freedom. People in chains may feel repressed, closed off, or limited, as if there isn’t much they can do about their current situation. This mirrors Kroto. There’s Lachesis, who she wanted to be like and tried to imitate. There’s Bella, who she even pretended to be in the communications with DM, during rehearsals Bella missed, and after Bella died when she pretended to be her before making it look like Bella died in a fall. Kroto’s “chains” can refer to how Kroto aka Clotho, now that Lachesis and Atropos are gone, is left with having to do everything herself (as well as how Clotho is spinning the thread, but now everything is wrong without someone to draw and cut the thread).

Then there’s also Scrooge, who she continued to work hard for, but who never treated her well. He never let her be the lead, made her help him fake Bella’s death, and then betrays by blame her for everything. When she leaves for a different theater, this mirrors Margaretha’s fate in her deductions. After Sergei’s death and after the circus burns down, she had to make a living for herself without anyone else’s help. By the end of her story, Margaretha understands that there’s another side to freedom. This kind of ending is just like Kroto’s after she leaves the Golden Rose Theater and after she loses all the other people she’d been relying on. Now, Koroto in a way put the “chains” on herself, having to live without anyone else’s help, without imitating anyone, and bearing the burden of her past actions.

For Kroto’s model, she’s based in part on Swan Lake, especially from looking at Kroto’s music box.

This is a tragic love story of a girl named Odette and a prince (usually named Siegfried). Odette’s been turned into a swan by an evil wizard named Rothbart. The prince goes on a hunt one day and finds the swan, who becomes human and explains her predicament to him. He professes his love for her, promising to break the curse and marry her. This angers Rothbart, who devises a plan to kill Odette. This plan includes having the prince proclaim his love for Rothbart’s daughter, Odile. At a ball, Rothbart presents his daughter, who’s disguised as Odette, to the prince. Overjoyed, the prince quickly proposes to the woman. Rothbart reveals this was a trap, before taunting the prince about how he’s killed Odette. The prince runs off to find Odette and explain his actions. He finds her by the lake, broken hearted, and retells her what happened. She forgives him, but Rothbart appears and informs the prince he must marry Odile or else he and Odette will die. After fighting, the prince decides he’d rather die than marry a woman he doesn’t love, so he takes Odette’s hand and they jump into the lake (though this ending varies) breaking the spell, setting those wronged by Rothbart free. Rothbart and Odile are driven into the water, where they also drown.

Kroto, like Odile for Odette, imitates Bella and pretends to be her several times. Her pretending to be Bella when corresponding with DM, who actually had been sending letters intended for Bella, paralells how the prince actually loves Odette and promises to marry her but is tricked to instead propose to Odile. DM, like the prince, was clueless about the truth until it was revealed to him by someone else. The prince being fooled by Odile and Rothbart’s trick is like how DM and the other members of the theater all believed that Kroto was Bella (DM via letters, and the theater when Kroto pretended to be Bella under Scrooge’s direction after Bella died of poisoning). Finally, Kroto’s black costume gives off a similar feeling to Odile’s from Swan Lake, who also usually wears jet black.

To finish off the 3 characters based on the 3 Fates, let’s turn towards Lachesis. Commander calls her a mix between Kroto and Bella, and is also arrogant. She described Lachesis as not the type to fall off a stage during a performance, never missed a rehearsal, and never made a mistake. “A genius who’s deadly serious to the point of pathological”. Like Bella, Lachesis was from France, as before the last performance of “The Coin of Lachesis” she was rumored to be returning there. This never happens, as she is reported to have fallen to her death in an accident during the final performance. It is from her death that Scrooge receives compensation money that he uses to rebuild the theater, which had been on the verge of bankruptcy.

Based on various factors, there’s a good chance that Lachesis, like Bella, also died due to Quivering Flower poison.

Back then, when Lachesis was still alive, Quivering Flower wasn’t banned. From what we see of her personality, she seems to have been the kind of person who’d do anything to get on the stage, meaning meaning she’d be willing to use Quivering Flower. From the mention of her arrogance, her pride also probably led her to hiding her addiction, just like it did with Bella. Though the one person she wouldn’t have been able to hide it from would have been Fragrance Queen, who we know had to have been around back then. This might explain why she becomes wary of Inference when she smells the same scent on him, and why she gets sad when she learns Bella used it to, so much so she stops trusting Scrooge. Either because they didn’t realize how dangerous the drug was back then, or because Fragrance Queen was unable to stop her.

It’s possible Scrooge knew about Lachesis’ use of Quivering Flower as well, but didn’t stop her due to his love of Lachesis’ talent. This could explain the “twisted love” Rusty mentions, which would refer to Scrooge’s obsession with Lachesis, which was so strong he decided to hire Bella instead of Kroto as lead actress because Bella was like Lachesis more than Kroto was (Kroto was compassionate while Bella had a similar arrogance like Lachesis did, not to mention Bella was also from France like Lachesis was, as well as a few other similarities especially personality wise).

Lachesis, as well as several other elements of the Golden Rose Theater including the theater itself, was likely based on the film Moulin Rogue.

The film’s heroine is Satine, a star dancer and courtesan with a deadly secret: she’s dying from tuberculosis. Christian, the would-be writer who loves her, is unaware of this secret. He collaborates with another to write a show to spotlight Satine’s brilliance as well as “truth, beauty, freedom, and love”. To do this, they need financial support, which is where the Duke comes in. He’ll pay for the show, but only if he can court Satine. Christian and Satine fall in love, to the point they can no longer ignore it, but the Duke won’t let anyone get in his way. Eventually it gets to where, to save Christian’s life, Satine must reject him, though the truth does come out. Unfortunately, it’s right before Satine succumbs to her illness. After she dies, Christian completes his work, which is the story of his love for Satine.

If it’s not obvious yet, the Moulin Rouge was significantly influenced by La Traviata, and by extension La Dame aux Camélias, and thus follows the same basic plot. Bella’s and Kroto’s costumes also seem to be based on Moulin Rouge, what with Bella’s long dress-like outfit with pink fur, and Kroto’s outfit with silver sequins that exposes her legs. There’s also the similar colors everyone’s costumes has (compared to Moulin Rouge), the pink feather skirts, head ornaments, all the gold and silver decorations everywhere, the event being all about performances and theater, etc…

Regarding Satine, she isn’t an exact match with Lachesis (ex: Satine wasn’t an arrogant character), but there are enough parallels to make the connection anyways. There’s how Satine dies to an illness on stage after completing a production, similar to how Lachesis dies (likely of Quivering Flower poisoning) at the final performance of “The Coin of Lachesis”. Also, like Satine in her last performance, Lachesis was said to have “delivered a flawless performance” even though she died.

The Duke seems somewhat similar to DM, what with both having financial power and chasing after a girl that ends up dying. Eric Satie, a musician who works alongside Christian, seems to be the model for Rusty Penpoint’s costume, what with the signature glasses, shirt style, and colorful scarf. Eric Satie also recognizes Christian’s talent for writing just like Rusty recognizes Scrooge’s. Satine’s love for the scriptwriter Christian seems to parallel Lachesis and the possible feelings Scrooge had for her (not romantic). Like with the DeRoss family and the manor, Scrooge became attached to Lachesis and the Golden Rose Theater. This is the “twisted love” Rusty mentions. It’s referring to the obsession Scrooge has with Lachesis, which again was why he made Bella lead actress rather than Kroto, as Bella shared more similarities to Lachesis than Kroto did. Like Burke in his deductions after losing the DeRoss family to a mob, he also couldn’t get over losing Lachesis. That’s why, after seeing Bella lying dead on the stage, he described remembering Lachesis’ death as a “nightmare” and how he had “suffered” over her.

Now that we’ve finished Bella, Kroto, and Lachesis, we can move on to the other characters.

The first we’ll discuss is the Client, DM.

He is a person interested in beauty and in the “hunt” or “realistic survival games”. To the females he fell for, he was known to give them Quivering Flower (the ban the government put on the drug apparently didn’t stop him from acquiring and sending it as gifts to the women). At the beginning of the event, we learn he was currently captivated with Bella and had been sending her letters, eventually receiving a red scarf at some point before communication was cut with him. It was here he asked Inference for help, who apparently knew him as they were former comrades in arms. We learn during the event that Bella was another recipient of Quivering Flower, though she got more from Kroto, who gave it to her after the Detective reveals Kroto had pretended to be Bella when corresponding with DM in Bella’s place. Kroto had sought to pacify DM (who learned the news after the Detective revealed the truth) with Bella’s help in exchange for giving Bella the Quivering Flower DM had given Kroto.

After Bella dies, we later learn he had been attending a council meeting at the time of Bella’s (actual) death. Apparently, upon learning of her death, he had rushed to the theater and refused to allow an autopsy of Bella because he wanted her to remain “flawless” even after her death. Once the truth comes out, we find out DM had already begun looking for another “beautiful thing”, instead of being attached to Bella. DM is also the one who introduced the new candidate for lead actress at the Golden Rose Theater after Ronald takes over and Kroto leaves.

It’s obvious enough that the Client is in a position of considerable power, based on the police’s inability to go against him (when he refuses to let an autopsy be performed). That plus how he’s so high he’s not referred to by name, his uninhibited pursuit of female relationships, and love of theater could imply the Client DM may be modeled after Prince Edward VII of England, who was also the “illustrious Client” from the Sherlock Holmes series, with the Detective obviously based on Sherlock. Prince Edward VII, like DM, was a known opera buff, served in the military, and flirted with many actresses.

Regarding the Client’s obsession with perfection, this is similar to Joseph’s obsession with camera obscura and his desire to preserve things forever (including memories and people). This desire for perfection is likely why the Client gave the females he liked Quivering Flower, as it was said to make you look dignified, shimmer, appear unordinary, alluring, and invigorate women’s energy.

The Client’s skin description, “Question 1 - the joy of a hunter, does it stem from the chase or the prey?”  relates to him chasing various females and his interest in the “hunt”. This “hunt” or “survival game” can be the reason he gives Quivering Flower to the females he chases, like Bella and what happens to her. DM seemed to see Bella like a piece of art he wanted to preserve rather than as an individual. It’s also possible this description can tie to Joseph’s obsession with photography and desire to preserve things.

Then there’s Scrooge, but I feel like I’ve already discussed him pretty well already, so I’m going to move on to Fragrance Queen.

Fragrance Queen was one of the older members of the group who’s known Scrooge since before even Lachesis. She was introduced alongside Golden Scissors, meaning she was a well-known make-up artist. Ronald describes her as the “true queen of the theater” and is shown commanding the other members. Despite their long history, Scrooge lost her trust after he rebuilt the theater with the compensation from Lachesis’ death. She also becomes wary of Inference after noticing he had the same scent as DM’s letters, the smell of Quivering Flower, and is saddened Quivering Flower is how Bella died.

As discussed earlier, the reason Fragrance Queen was sad after learning Bella used Quivering Flower was likely because Fragrance Queen had experienced Lachesis dying for probably that very same reason (especially if she tried and failed to stop Lachesis from using it). This could reflect Chloe and Vera in Perfumer’s background. Chloe, once she realized what Vera’s true intentions had been some time after Chloe had already killed her, also became distraught over what she had done. It’s possible Fragrance Queen could have been similarly upset at Lachesis and her lies (about using Quivering Flower), but was gripped with regret and grief after she died.

Next is Phonograph. It’s unknown whether she was in the Golden Rose Theater company before Bella or if she joined with her. We do know she was one of Bella’s supporters and was looked down on by many of the other members for worshipping her so much. At the theater, she drove out enthusiastic fans that tried to sneak into Bella’s waiting room. At the time of Bella’s death, she was instructed by Bella to go out and buy something, so she was furious when she came back and found Scrooge already trying to have Kroto move into Bella’s suite. During the investigation, we discover that she was aware of Bella’s use of Quivering Flower, as well as how Kroto had given Bella some in return for pacifying DM, though when Inference tried to take one of the empty bottles, she became distraught and tried to hide it.

When Fragrance Queen asked if Bella used Quivering Flower, Phonograph responded that she hadn’t since it was banned. Along with this, we know from her reaction to Inference taking one of the empty bottles (as well as when she took the empty bottle from Jingle Bells) that she knew Bella had received some more from Kroto. It’s possible she may not have been initially aware how dangerous it was. Phonograph in regards to Quivering Flower may also reflect how Demi herself has drug resistance and how her brother’s “miracle drink” brought the two of them success. To Phonograph (and Demi), she might see something like Quivering Flower as a positive thing because, based on Demi, “achieving success through the use of miraculous effects” is a good thing to her. Whether or not there are side effects, she might believe that if it makes her loved ones successful and protects their pride, then it’s ok. This reflects how Phonograph worshipped Bella for her success, even with Quivering Flower, though it caused Bella to die in the end. This is similar to how Dovlin made her brother successful and proud, but it was also because of Dovlin that he left and never returned.

Regarding Phonograph’s relationship to Bella, Phonograph to Bella was like how Princess Lamballe was to Mary. Princess Lamballe was Mary’s best friend and remained so no matter what, all the way to Mary’s execution. Like Lamballe, Phonograph never stops supporting Bella, and even gets mad at Scrooge for making light of Bella’s death. It’s also like Lamballe for Phonograph to be criticized by the other members of the troupe, as this also happened to Lamballe due to her support of Mary.

Other than Phonograph, Sparrow is another supporter for Bella. He may have even potentially joined up (from another theater company) around the same time as her based on one of the rumors from the start of the event. As we can see during the event, Sparrow gets easily emotional when it comes to Bella, at which point Smarty usually has to step in to get him to calm down. For things other than Bella, he seems normal, and despite being told by Scrooge to keep quiet, he still helps with the Detective’s investigation of the stage equipment at Smarty’s intercession.

Sparrow’s blindness and lack of composure towards Bella reflect Mike’s feelings for Bernard, the head of the circus. Mike loves and believes in Bernard, despite Bernard being the same person who’s abusive to Murro. Bernard seems to have different attitudes towards the other circus members compared to the ones he liked. Mike didn’t seem to notice this other side of Bernard, or if he did, he didn’t comment on it. Bernard to Mike was Bella to Sparrow. So, Sparrow getting especially upset after Bella’s death is like the feelings he had after everyone at the circus (except Margaretha) died. Sparrow helping the Detective with his investigation into the circumstances surrounding Bella’s death is similar to how Mike himself is investigating who killed everyone at the circus.

Speaking of Smarty Pants, she unlike many of the others never talks about the actors’ performances. She never says anything for or against Bella, and doesn’t compare her to Kroto and Lachesis, which is likely why she is said to be Sparrow’s friend and why Sparrow can get along with her easily. She doesn’t seem to care if Kroto or Bella is better, and the only time she ever says anything is when Sparrow has an emotional outburst. We don’t even really get to see what her feelings are about Lachesis’ and Bella’s death. What we do know is she’s interested in stage control and preventing a repeat of the tragedy with Ronald’s father, which her feelings about are made very clear, especially with how her skin description is referring to it: “If time could be reversed like cogwheels, could the dead come back to life?”.

Smarty, along with Jingle, are described as the most responsible backstage workers. We know that she didn’t believe Ronald’s father was responsible for Lachesis’ death. After thoroughly reviewing the circumstances of Lachesis’ “fall”, she was able to exonerate Ronald’s father 10 years after the “accident”. Unfortunately, Ronald’s father had already died in prison. Her work to prove his innocence gained Ronald’s trust, as he calls her one of the only 2 “good” people, with the other being Inference.

Based on Smarty’s feeling about Ronald’s father and all her work to prove his father innocent, not to mention how an ex-worker of the Golden Rose Theater talks about Smarty, I think we can imply that Ronald’s father was likely Smarty’s senior in terms of stage control. Meaning Smarty was possibly there 10 years ago when Lachesis died and Ronald’s father was imprisoned. 

One question that gives us is why it took 10 years for Smarty to prove Ronald’s father innocent?

Besides saying it’s because it took time, it could have to do with Ronald joining the theater. That could have brought her back to reality and got her to realize that the machine operator was someone’s father. Ronald doesn’t seem to hide the fact that he’s the son of the machine operator that was accused. To parallel this, Tracy has her Cowardly trait in game: “Years of indoor work have exacerbated the Mechanic's timidity. The mechanic becomes scared when a teammate is wounded or placed on a rocket chair”. It’s only when one of her teammates gets hurt that she seems to be affected. This could imply that Smarty also wasn’t affected and didn’t realize the full reality of things until she met Ronald, the son of the mechanic who was falsely accused of Lachesis’ death. Her trying to prove Ronald’s father innocent mirrors how she tried to prove how her own father didn’t merely die in an “accident”.

Another question about Smarty is how, despite how both her and Jingle are described as responsible, Smarty is the only one Ronald refers to as a “good” person. Not Jingle Bells. Why?

At the very beginning, Jingle nearly turned Inference away until Ronald intercedes and allows him to enter the theater. Jingle thought that Inference was just another fan at first, but even when Inference tries to present the red scarf, Jingle still refuses and says it’s not actually special. During performances, he oversaw the entrance leading to the 2nd floor where officials and nobility reside. On the day of Bella’s fall, he kept track of people going to and from the 1st and 2nd floor, and found an empty bottle of Quivering Flower at the scene of her fall (though he didn’t seem to know what it was). It was the same kind of bottle DM had given Bella several times before, with Jingle apparently delivering it to her each time. He had also seen Kroto go upstairs, but never come down. Jingle shows himself to be sincere about his work, and he still appears shocked and saddened after Bella’s death.

The issue with Jingle is that he knows important information but doesn’t tell anyone. He knows things that could’ve helped stop the incident or solve it faster, yet Jingle doesn’t say any more than what he’s asked. For example, when Inference shows him the red scarf to try to meet with Bella, Jingle’s reaction to it as well as his comment about it hints that Jingle in fact knew that Bella gave away the scarf. He may have even known it had been given to Kroto by Golden Scissors. Yet, all he says is how it’s not as special as Inference thinks. Then there’s how he knew Kroto hadn’t come down from the 2nd floor. If Smarty had known this, she might have been able to figure out who had touched the elevator. There’s also how he delivered the bottles from DM to Bella. If Fragrance Queen had been aware of this, or even about the empty bottle he had found, she could have realized Bella’s was using Quivering Flower, or if she knew about the deliveries before then, maybe she could’ve stopped Bella before she got herself killed.

This relates to Victor’s deductions. Victor isn’t good at communicating with people and he is also very tight-lipped. It’s also because of this tight-lipped nature that he’s entrusted with delivery work between the “Old Man” and the other party (gangs) that can’t be made public. Jingle, like Victor, is tight-lipped and doesn’t talk about things not related to his job. Even though he has quite a bit of information based on everything he said during the event, he won’t tell it to anyone because it’s not part of his job and because no one asks him about it) The only reason he spoke as much as he did in Act 3 is likely due to Sheriff Jose’s letter. That day, it was his job to cooperate with the detective’s investigation.

This “I know but won’t tell you because it’s not relevant to my work” is likely why Ronald decided Jingle wasn’t a good person. Ronald, as well as Norton, are both smart and good at noticing. He also understands this possibly because he, like Jingle/Victor, is the same kind of person.

Since I mentioned Golden Scissors, I’ll move to talk about him next. As I mentioned earlier, he was introduced in a newspaper along with Fragrance Queen, implying he was a well-known stylist. Currently, he works exclusively as Bella’s stylist, but any work Bella didn’t like he diverted to Kroto for a fee. “If the trade is fair, I don’t mind feeding her vanity a little bit”. He also has a habit of reading newspapers in the afternoon to help inspire his work. It was 1 of these newspapers that gave Inference a hint about the similarity between Bella’s case and Lachesis’ death.

Jack, like Golden Scissors, is someone who takes pride in his work. Jack is an artist, while Golden Scissors is a stylist. However, he doesn’t mention any feelings of regret or disappointment when talking about Bella discarding the red scarf. He remains surprisingly calm. The Ripper is said to have his “own unique set of standards for his ‘guest’”. This likely relates to his actions with Kroto. Another connection between Jack and Golden Scissors’ is his mask. It’s half black, half white, with 1 half smiling and the other sad, and has a crack running through the white side. This is ties to how Jack himself is split between Jack and the Ripper, and Jack, who isn’t happy about the Ripper and what he does, is the one who seems to be fading away, which explains the crack in the white half of the mask. Jack immersing himself in his work as the only way to calm the Ripper ties to Golden Scissors’ focus on his job.

There’s also how in Act 3 he shows Inference a newspaper that leads him to suspect Scrooge, as well as causes Sparrow to explode into the conversation, which leads to a lot of information and a sudden revelation of the truth. This action doesn’t seem to personally benefit Golden Scissors. All he did was step in when Encore was at a loss for words, hand the Detective the newspaper, and watch the resulting show. He doesn’t defend anyone like Sparrow or try to see what was bothering people like Fragrance Queen. This kind of role possibly reflects the Ripper. He doesn’t seem too particularly interested in what happens to the Golden Rose Theater or what it’s future is. The action of showing the newspaper may have been an intentional one to sow the seeds of confusion, as well as allow him to watch the results of his action for the benefit of his own amusement. Him finding the confusion in Act 3 interesting to watch may have been the only thing he cared about.

From Golden Scissors we go to Encore. She, like Sparrow, came from another theater company, with her current job being as “Stand-in”, as well as her custom of telling fortunes before performances. Unlike Sparrow though, she is a friend of Kroto’s and doesn’t think much of Bella and her worshippers. She is also superstitious and believes Lachesis holds a grudge against the theater. As a result of Bella’s accidental death, memories of Lachesis and her death resurface for people and result in them calling the theater cursed, making Encore even more nervous.

The reason Encore is friends with Kroto reflects Fiona in her own deductions in regards to her mother. Fiona was desperate to meet her mother’s excessive, strict expectations, but was never able to do so, with her mom’s disappointed comment of “Why couldn’t you have been more like me” to top it all off. Kroto, like Fiona, struggled in her own way amid her unfortunate circumstances. Her efforts were also easy to understand by those around her, as theatergoers could see her hard work and effort as well as her unhappiness, such as when Kroto gradually became more popular and yet wasn’t chosen as lead actress, or when Kroto was forced to substitute for Bella whenever Bella missed rehearsals.

Encore’s skin description also reflects these same sentiments: “Whenever the chants ‘Encore! Encore!’ roar throughout the theatre, I only wish they were meant for me.”. This is likely exactly what Fiona felt with her mother, always just wishing to meet her expectations and earn that praise, but like the cheers of the theater, Fiona herself never earned that praise. Encore’s job at the theater is also similar. She, as the “stand-in” oversees the interval show, which is performed to keep the audience occupied between acts while preparations are being made for the next act. It’s an important job but isn’t always seen as such despite all the work it takes. She wants to be recognized by the audience the same way she wants her mother to see all her effort trying to meet her expectations.

As a result, it’s no wonder Encore likely felt camaraderie with Kroto. Kroto worked hard as an actress but wasn’t rewarded for all her efforts. We also see how she, like Fiona, in the end left to go somewhere else. All this would explain why Encore isn’t supportive to Bella. From Encore’s point of view, Bella came off as a selfish person who relied on her natural talents and neglected rehearsals. She was gifted and wasn’t trying, yet had so many adoring fans.

Another person who didn’t seem to have much love for Bella was Commander, the theater’s logistics manager who, along with Phonograph, kicked out enthusiastic fans that tried to sneak backstage to see Bella. Rusty comments that she knows everything. Commander acknowledges Bella’s talent for acting but says Bella’s performance had been fluctuating lately, and comments she doesn’t like her attitude. She calls Bella’s personality not likeable and seems bugged about how she wasn’t close with any of the other theater members, not to mention calls her a lunatic for saying if she couldn’t deliver a flawless performance she’d rather die. In regards to Lachesis, she refers to her as a mix between Kroto and Bella, calls her arrogant, but never slacked off, didn’t ever miss a rehearsal, never made a mistake, and states she’s a “genius who’s deadly serious to the point of pathological”.

According to the Detective, she didn’t have any interest in Lachesis (at least in Act 1), compared to all she had to say about Bella. The only hints we get is Commander seemed to become “lost in some bad memories” regarding Lachesis’ death. This may hint Commander knew the truth about Lachesis’ death and Scrooge using her compensation to rebuild the theater, and so may be suspicious of him trying to do the same with Bella. It could also explain why she made a comment about how maybe Bella could’ve fallen in an accident, what with all the slacking of she’d done, but Lachesis, who never screwed up and was always flawless, would never have fallen in some accident during a performance.

The reason Commander didn’t seem to like Bella relates to Emma’s background. Emma had to go through her family falling apart. Her mother left, and later her father turning to drinking before later burning himself up in the factory, leaving Emma all alone, without a home or family. To Commander, the theater is like her home, and the theater group is her family, so she likely doesn’t want to see it falling apart (or be left alone). One of her goals is to protect it, which is why she kicks out the enthusiastic fans trying to sneak backstage, why she tries to figure things out and thus knows so much, and why she doesn’t like Bella’s behavior and how she didn’t get along with the other members of the theater.

This could also be why she wouldn’t like Scrooge and the tactics he was using to keep the theater afloat via insurance fraud. This could parallel Emma’s background, as Leo, her home, and life, was destroyed due to financial reasons. 1 thought why Commander didn’t accuse Scrooge 10 years ago if she knew the truth may be because she didn’t want to do something that would destroy the theater.

Now let’s discuss Rusty, the assistant screenwriter. Rusty is an interesting character, as he only ever shows up in Act 1. He doesn’t even show up in Act 2 to defend himself when everyone is proving their alibis (regarding Bella’s death). Ronald ends up being the one to provide it. The first time Rusty is mentioned is in a rumor that said Ronald and Rusty were the theater’s “silver tongues”. We first see him right after the Detective gets into the theater with Ronald’s help. He’s the one that made the comment about money and twisted love corrupting Scrooge’s talent. He also opens up more when he learns the Detective was a friend of DM, which includes informing us about Lachesis’ fall at the final performance, Scrooge obtaining money of unknown origin after Lachesis’ death, and that the sequel to “The Coin of Lachesis” is being rehearsed right then. He closes up when Inference asks for more information, telling him to instead talk to Commander.

From all this, Rusty is definitely suspicious, especially due to his lack of appearances, and even more especially from not showing up to give his alibi. He, like Jingle, seems to know more than he lets on. Rusty’s skin description seems to hint towards this: “If the duty of a detective is to seek out the truth behind every mystery, no matter how ugly it is, then the duty of a playwright is to provide an ending to every story, no matter how far it deviates from the truth”. This relates to Freddy’s thinking the law isn’t a permit for “what you may do” but a provision for “what you must not do”. His desire to “provide an ending” ties in with Rusty’s feelings towards Scrooge. Originally, he had joined the theater because he wanted to learn from the director who “used to be a talented writer”. As we know from his money and twisted love comment, he seems to have lost the respect he once had for him. Rusty feels that Scrooge lost his talent because of his obsession with Lachesis (and using her death for money).

Based on this and his goal to “provide an ending”, he may be working to undermine Scrooge. With him out of the way, Rusty would be able to give the ending to the story that Scrooge has proven himself unable to write (at least not adequately enough anymore).

The reason Rusty may have clammed up and told the Detective to talk to Commander instead was possibly to prevent himself from giving too much information and becoming a suspect later on. Freddy is clever, so his plans are bound to be well-thought out. That’s why Rusty knew to not give too much away, especially to a Detective.

I think wasn’t working alone. I think he had the support of both DM and Ronald. Regarding DM, the reason Rusty opened up when he heard Inference was friends with him might’ve been because he was allied with DM. With Ronald, this comes from the number of times we see the 2 together in some way. At the beginning, Ronald drops Inference off with Rusty before going to rehearsal. There’s even before then with the rumor how Ronald and Rusty are the “silver tongues” at the theater. Later, we see it’s Ronald who provides Rusty with his alibi. Further more, there’s how Ronald somehow seemed to know the Detective was coming to the theater to investigate, despite the fact only DM should’ve known that. On top of this, Ronald apparently was coming to greet the Detective right before rehearsal. Finally, there’s how DM is the one to suggest a lead actress to Ronald when he becomes the new owner, as well as how Rusty is likely the playwright at the Golden Rose Theater under Ronald.

So, why would these 3 work together? I think it’s because of their mutual interest and shared benefit. Not to mention, this fits Freddy’s deductions and how it says it’s good to have “more than one good partner” (and Norton has a similar deduction about needing helpers). We’ve already discussed Rusty, who wants to provide an end to the story, and how he wants Scrooge out of the way to do that. DM is likely cooperating due to his interest in the “hunt” (not to mention his interest in Bella, even after she dies). Finally, we have Ronald, who wants to become owner of the Golden Rose Theater and wants revenge on Scrooge for his father’s death.

Rusty and Ronald are potentially the source of the rumors we hear about, like the rumor about Rusty and Ronald being the “silver tongues” of the theater. This was listed as “gossip” and of “unknown source”. Gossip is exactly what Rusty was doing after hearing Inference knew DM. The reason for the rumor was likely to help them gather information. The other information we learn before the event begins is the “unreliable information” from the “butler” of the theater. Both this and the previous one are deliberately worded as to make us unsure if the information is reliable. It’s possible this 2nd bit of information also came from Rusty. This would be the kind of information we could describe as a “leak”. In that case, it could imply that another “leak” we saw later during the event also came from the same source. The information I’m referring to is the newspaper Golden Scissors had that discussed the compensation Scrooge received from Lachesis’s death, which helped him escape financial difficulties. This could’ve also been leaked by Rusty and Ronald to deliberately hurt Scrooge’s reputation.

If Rusty was working behind the scenes (against Scrooge), especially to help gather information (and also leak it to people), that could explain why Rusty was missing for so long, including in Act 3. Another of Freddy’s deductions parallel this: “This is an era of change, and you need to be privy to exclusive news to be successful!”. Finally, in the end when they are successful in getting Scrooge removed, this mirrors how Freddy was successful in getting Martha from Leo and getting Leo to fall into his trap (to buy the debt ridden factory and getting Leo to “disappear”).

As a final continuation of this, the fact the newspaper continues to describe Bella as having died via a fall, and Inference mentions “that gentleman must have something to do with it”, “that gentleman” is DM. I think this could be how Rusty and Ronald can leak information. With someone as high up as DM, he could help get the information they want to hurt Scrooge into a newspaper with his influence. Though I think the reason the newspaper didn’t report the truth about Bella more has to do with what DM wants than Rusty and Ronald. I think the reason DM kept the newspapers at the end of the event that way is because he didn’t want the truth about Bella dying via Quivering Flower to become public, as otherwise it might’ve made it difficult to hand out them out as gifts to the females he chases after, or made his “hunts” harder to do.

To finish our analysis of the event, we have Ronald. To a number of people, he may not have seemed very important in this story, but that’s probably the way he wanted it to be. Like Rusty, he was being sneaky and hiding his true intentions really well, which was why they were working behind the scenes regarding most of what they really did (and wanted). Ronald is the lead actor for a reason, even though some people may have forgotten that as the event went on. He was made the lead for a reason. It shows that he is a good actor, which is something reflected in Norton’s background, especially in Norton’s letter where Benny comments on Norton having a “polarized façade”. It’s also implied due to Ronald being called a “silver tongue”, which means “persuasive” or “eloquent”. Ronald, as well as Norton, are good at talking to people, convincing them of the things they want to convince them of, as well as are good at hiding their true intentions and feelings.

As an add on, he is also described as having “acumen”, which means “keen insight” or “shrewdness” (aka, he’s sharp). This helps prove the idea of him being able to notice the truth behind Jingle and how much he really knew but didn’t say, as well as how he like Rusty is able to gather information for their mutual goal. The “greed” he’s also referred to as having here can help prove the idea that he was working with Rusty to help get rid of Scrooge, for Ronald’s personal goal of revenge and so he could become owner of the theater.

The first time we hear about Ronald is after his father dies, when he’s forced to return from his studies in France to arrange his funeral. Interestingly, after the funeral it says “But no one heard from him since”. This implies Ronald disappeared after the funeral, only reappearing 10 years later when he joins Golden Rose Theater as the “new leading actor”.

When the Detective arrives at the Theater at the beginning of the event, we learn that him and Ronald know each other from serving in the military together. Ronald helps the Detective get into the theater, as well as continues to remain cooperative through the Detective’s investigation, before and after Bella’s death. Another detail we learn is that, despite how he has a certain amount of say in the theater, he doesn’t seem to be well respected by the other members of the group. Later on, he provided alibis for himself and Rusty during Act 2, showing neither of them could’ve killed Bella. By the end, we see that Ronald became the new owner of the theater.

Ronald studying in France, as well as his passion for performing, reflects Norton himself, as in his deductions we see hints about Norton’s eagerness to learn. This comes from the letters of recommendation we see in his deductions, which mentioned he didn’t stay with any one employer for too long, showing how he was going around learning what he could, getting different experiences, and likely developing and improving his techniques (the same way Ronald would be). Which would explain why all his past employers were saddened at not being able to keep him for longer.

Ronald studying from France also connects him to Bella and Lachesis, who are both from France. The fact he was studying could mean he was trying to be like Lachesis, as Bella wasn’t lead actress at the time. And him wanting to be as good as Lachesis might possibly stem from how Lachesis was mentioned to be “flawless”, never made a mistake, and did anything for the performance.

Ronald’s intellect also goes along with how Ronald constantly helps the Detective throughout his investigations. He’s the one to help him get into the theater. He’s the one introducing the Detective to most of the theater members, and he usually includes important snippets and details about each one (the fact he knows information about each person like this could be further proof to the idea mentioned earlier, with how him and Rusty are gathering information for the end goal of getting rid of Scrooge). Ronald also helps the Detective talk to people when the Detective needs to (or when it’s hard for the Detective to talk to the person himself).

Back with Ronald’s passion for performing, this shows that his main interest is in ensuring the performance is perfect. It doesn’t matter who the leading actress is to him as long as they perform their part well. That would explain his dislike for Bella. Unlike the reasons of most others, Ronald’s only reason for disliking Bella is because of her acting. She’s been missing rehearsals, and when she does perform in front of the other cast, it hasn’t been great (it apparently had been “fluctuating” recently, nowhere near flawless). That means if Bella had been able to do her job right, Ronald wouldn’t have cared that Bella was the lead actress instead of Kroto. Ronald is just serious about his role and the performance. This is just like Norton, who is a hard worker to the point of overworking from how he was always the “first to enter the mine, and the last to leave it”. Norton’s Season 12 Essence 2 skin, Wild Pitch, also is a hint to this aspect of Norton, about how he’s a hard worker who overworks to the point of seriously hurting himself and to the point of total exhaustion. He takes mining (and his interest in ore) seriously, and he puts all his effort into it to make sure it’s done as well as it can be done. So it would make sense he’d expect at least an adequate performance from his coworkers.

Also, with how smart Ronald is implied to be, it could make sense that he may have taken notice of Scrooge’s talent and that he wasn’t writing as well as he used to (due to his obsessions and everything from Lachesis’ death). That could be part of the reason why Ronald wants to be owner instead of Scrooge, the same way he thinks it might be better for Kroto to be lead actress instead of Bella. All because Bella and Scrooge aren’t doing good enough and he wants the performances to be as great as they can be.

Alongside his goal of becoming the owner of the Golden Rose Theater, the other reason Ronald is working against Scrooge is because he wants revenge for his father’s death. It’s because of Scrooge faking Lachesis’ death as an accident via fall that his dad was falsely accused of getting Lachesis killed, due to his father being in charge of the lift, and being imprisoned led to his death via a severe cold.

I think one of the official tweets on Ronald might hint at the importance of his father’s death to him and hint at him wanting revenge for it: https://twitter.com/IdentityVJP/status/1286919130658926594. Specifically, I’m referring to how it says “in the darkness of tragedy” and “only the rose on his chest continues to shine”. “Tragedy”. The one tragedy that happened to Ronald was his dad’s death. “Darkness” refers to how Ronald felt after his father’s death, which impacted him so greatly that “only the rose on his chest continues to shine”. This last bit might mean Ronald wasn’t happy after that day, that there wasn’t really any light in his life or in him afterwards (because all his light got taken away with his father’s death). If this impacted him so greatly, this helps prove Ronald had a strong desire to get revenge on the man responsible (Scrooge). Thus, the last bit of the tweet, which asks what Ronald wanted, might be hinting at Ronald wanting revenge and his desire to take Scrooge’s position as director and owner of the theater from him.

From the picture of this incident where we see Ronald crying over his father’s body, from Ronald’s disappearance after his dad’s funeral instead of returning to France to continue his studies, and only reappearing 10 years later when he joined the Golden Rose Theater, helps prove that Ronald did indeed care about his father. Enough to want revenge for his death.

This is why Ronald explores a lot of things personally and gathers information himself. Anything that might inconvenience Scrooge he likely spreads as rumors or via newspapers (with DM’s help). It’s also likely why he works so much with the Detective. Because he wants help getting the truth to come out.

The main reason Ronald likely joined the theater was probably to look into it and get his revenge (or find the information and whatever else he needed to achieve his revenge on Scrooge), as that theater was where Scrooge was.

Another reason I think Ronald wanted to be owner of the theater had to do with Norton’s background again. It’s the part about how despite having some say in even though he was the lead actor and the amount of talent he had to have had to get that position. It parallels what we learn about Norton from his profile in the Famitsu article, which hints at how he wasn’t treated well by the people around him. Before Norton went to the 13 mines, it mentions how others were intimidated by how hard he worked. After the accident, while Norton was recovering in the hospital, it mentions how no one really comforted him and instead avoided him. Finally, Ronald wanting to become owner of the theater can mirror Norton’s desire to change his status/fate (how he wants to move up) by acquiring wealth or finding gold. Ronald wants to be owner relates to part of the reason why Norton wants to change his fate. He wants to prove himself.

Ronald, like Norton, was a hard worker and exceptional at his job, but didn’t receive the respect and treatment he deserved (despite his position and talent). This was in part because of who his parents were (his dad was a lowly miner) and also because of Norton’s parents dying early and leaving Norton all alone. As a result of this, Ronald and Norton want to “prove” themselves and show them how good he really is. For Ronald, this means becoming owner of the Golden Rose Theater (and getting rid of Scrooge). For Norton, this was changing his status and earning the wealth he needed to do so (and showing those around him that he was capable of being more than what he was currently).

Ronald being willing to do whatever it took to achieve his goal is also similar to how Norton was so desperate to change his fate. Norton was tired of just being a miner, tired of not being treated well by the other miners and his employers, and he was depressed over how, now matter how hard he worked, he was still just as poor and likely to end up like the other homeless miners in hospice. But since effort alone wasn’t enough, he decided to try something else, which came in the form of his search through 13 mines in the hope of striking gold in a get rich quick scheme. Ronald and Norton being positive no matter how bad things look and remaining hopeful mirrors one of Norton’s deductions as well as the message a number of Norton’s skins seem to provide, which was how he had to keep being positive, and he couldn’t be affected by what others around him said or did.

Basically, one of Ronald’s hopes is that, if he can become owner, that will show everyone that he’s worthy of respect.

As a bit of further proof for this that Ronald wants revenge for his father, we can look at Act 2 which was when we learn Bella died. When it’s said that Bella “died on the spot”, we get a curious response: “I wasn’t sure what came to Ronald’s mind as he sighed and said ‘At least it didn’t look like she suffered much before she died.’”. Ronald commenting about Bella not having to suffer much is an interesting parallel when you think of how Ronald’s father died. He was sent to prison and suffered from a severe illness before dying. He didn’t die instantly. He suffered greatly. He was even in prison and didn’t have any family when he died, which likely made his suffering and death all the worse for Ronald’s father. The fact Ronald sighs before saying it, not to mention him making this kind of comment at all, I think is all a way of hinting at Ronald’s feelings regarding his father and the grudge he holds against Scrooge.

Actually, when I put it that way, that reminds me of Encore mentioning Lachesis still haunting the theater because she died with a grudge. What if it’s not Lachesis’ ghost haunting the theater holding a grudge? What if the grudge is actually Ronald’s? Encore is mentioned to be superstitious, and does things like fortune telling, while Fiona herself is also spiritual, interested in the occult, and possibly could have something like a 6th sense. Based on this, I think it’s possible Encore could tell something was there and someone had a grudge (especially considering how Encore does fortune telling), but may have guessed wrong about who that grudge belonged to. She’s said to be anxious over people calling the theater cursed with memories of Lachesis’ death being brought back due to Bella’s death, so it’d make sense she’d assume that the grudge belonged to her. But the fact that, when Encore is talking about grudges, the Detective is with Ronald at this time, I think could be a hint to the truth.

Also, when Ronald makes the comment about the only good people are Smarty and the Detective, this apparently comes after the cast of the performance was finalized, with Bella being the chosen as lead actress. Yet Bella refused to rehearse, and Scrooge refused to cancel the rehearsal or change the cast. I think this might be another hint at Ronald’s annoyance with Scrooge (and his desire to get rid of him), as Scrooge refusing to change the case or cancel the rehearsal even though Bella refused to rehearse likely upsets Ronald, who wants the performance be perfect and go as well as it can which won’t if Scrooge keeps making bad decisions. It is later confirmed that this (Scrooge’s actions about the rehearsal and cast) did in fact annoy him (it said he was “ticked off”), he’s mentioned to not be surprised (which could hint at him at this point already having an opinion on Scrooge and/or knows how he is by now). It’s also said that “By that time, Kroto could take on Bella’s role convincingly, so he didn’t really care whom he was going to perform with”. This goes back to what I said about Ronald doesn’t really hate Bella personally, he just wants someone who can perform well during the performance. So even if he didn’t care too much about Scrooge’s actions, as Kroto could still replace Bella if need be, it’s still a hint towards Ronald’s actual feelings.

There’s also Ronald’s comment about Smarty and the Detective being the only good people, which can be used as further proof. Smarty is “good” because she was the only member of the group to work to prove his father’s innocence, while the Detective is a friend from the military that Ronald says he really trusts.

I also think that Scrooge could be a parallel to Benny (just like the theory how Marshall from the Western themed story of Season 10 essence 1 may also represent Benny for Norton). Scrooge had an obsession with money, which is just like Benny (and Marshall) who also has an obsession with money and finding gold. Benny’s obsession with money could also be described as a “twisted love”. Marshall never finding real gold could parallel Benny’s failure to ever find real gold himself. There’s also how Scrooge is related to Ronald’s father death.

Once Ronald actually becomes owner of the theater, it’s mentioned he acquired a vast fortune from somewhere and used it to purchase the deed to the theater. This money was likely the compensation from Bella’s death.

The reason why Scrooge made it look like Bella (and Lachesis) died in accidents is because he wanted the money from their insurance policies. Therefore, Sheriff Jose likely arrested Scrooge and thus he was removed as owner of Golden Rose Theater due to insurance fraud. As a result, I think Scrooge wouldn’t have gotten any of the compensation money. Considering Kroto is said to be listed on those insurance policies too, I think the money would’ve gone to her.

1 option is Ronald got the money from Kroto. She didn’t even want to use Bella’s suite due to thinking Lachesis cursed it. So maybe after everything that happened at the theater and everything Kroto did, she just wanted to get away from the theater and everything. That could include the compensation she received from Bella’s death. So maybe she gave it to the 1 person she knew wanted Golden Rose Theater. Kroto does say all she wants is to show she’s worthy of being the spotlight or something. It’s also possible she gave it because she liked Ronald. This comes from the comment that Kroto likes “red and covets things that don’t belong to her”. Ronald wears mostly red. There’s also how during the Golden Rose Theater trailer, Kroto has hearts in her eyes while seeming to be looking at Ronald. Ronald could be something she can’t have based on his personality, his focus on revenge for his father and replacing Scrooge, and how he mainly only cares about the performance (plus especially if Ronald stays at the theater while Kroto wants to get away from the place).

Either way, I don’t think Ronald did anything dirty or underhanded to get the money. We’ve already gone over how smart Ronald actually is. If he was willing to invite the Detective over to the theater after Ronald became the owner, especially with how well Ronald knows the Detective and he fully well knows just how smart the Detective is, especially right after the Detective’s investigations, I doubt he would’ve done something bad. Not to mention, I doubt he would’ve done something like or as bad as insurance fraud right after Scrooge was (likely) just caught and charged for that very thing. It’d be like a criminal calling the police right after he robbed a store. It doesn’t make a lot of sense (at least for a normal person, as we aren’t going to talk about some of the weird stories where this sort of thing likely happens). Not to mention, Ronald is mentioned to “really trust” the Detective. From what we’ve seen and heard from the Detective as well as Ronald, I honestly think the 2 of them are friends (the very beginning of the event has the Detective mentioning him and Ronald are friends), that they (at least somewhat on the Detective’s side) trust each other, and so wouldn’t do anything to get themselves in trouble with each other.

If anything, the 2nd option as to where Ronald got the money is maybe he got it from DM. Considering his interest in beautiful things, in the “hunt”, and how he quickly moves on after Bella’s death, he probably wants the theater to go on so he will continue to have sources of entertainment (and people to “hunt”). Also, I have discussed how Ronald and DM were working together. So it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if DM was willing to fund Ronald to become the owner.

Nearing the end now. I know some people might make some comparisons between Ronald and the Phantom from the Phantom of the Opera, but when I checked I didn’t see enough connections between them. Yes, Ronald has a mask covering part of his face, but the Phantom wears his mask to hide/cover his disfigurement, while Ronald’s mask doesn’t (it actually covers everything but the burn scar on his face). Then there’s how the Phantom is obsessed with Christine, but this love element is absent in regards to Ronald, who wants revenge on Scrooge. There’s also how the Phantom threatens the opera house to do what he says or else he’ll do something bad. Ronald never threatens anyone, and even if he might be working against Scrooge, he’s doing it secretly. Most of what he does is help the Detective with his investigations and maybe leak information to newspapers, but that isn’t the same as what the Phantom does. The Phantom in the story already seems to be in control of the theater, while Ronald in the Golden Rose Theater event is trying to work his way up to be owner of the theater.

The second to last thing is Ronald’s description and how it relates to Norton. This has been hard for me to figure out. “It's you, the strings that weave our destiny - let it become the web that entangles us all.” The first half should refer to Kroto. This is because Kroto is based on Clotho, who in Greek myth was the one to spin the thread of a person’s “destiny”. As to the 2nd half may refer to how Kroto was essentially the one to start the whole chain of events that occurred during the Golden Rose Theater event. Her being jealous of Bella, leading to her pretending to be her and talk to DM, which makes DM call Inference to go to the theater, which causes Kroto to have to give more Quivering Flower to Bella and thus lead to her death. With Bella dead, Scrooge tries to take advantage of it to acquire more money from her insurance policy, and Inference stays longer to solve that case, leading to the truth about Scrooge faking Bella’s (and Lachesis’) deaths and thus gets him arrested, which allows Ronald to finally get his revenge and replace Scrooge as owner. All in all, this would explain why Ronald would hope that the ”web” Kroto “weaves” would “entangle” everyone. This allowed him the opportunity to reach his goal and get what he wanted.

It's harder for me to determine how his description relates to Norton himself though. Maybe for his backstory, in place of Kroto it’s supposed to be Benny and the old miners. Benny was the reason Norton received an opportunity to find gold when Norton was failing to change his fate from simple hard work. Though he never got the gold in the end, he did get the meteorite magnets and was able to change his profession so he’d no longer have to be a miner (geological prospecting is actually the very sort of thing Norton would likely enjoy considering his canon interests and talents). There’s also how I still think Benny was involved in the death of Norton’s father, so by going after the gold alone and not helping Benny could be like a form of revenge for Norton’s father.

The very last thing I have is about Ronald’s name.

To set this up, the Detective mentions when he first meets Ronald that “we called him ‘Ronald of Nice’”. This is said immediately after the Detective comments how Ronald is an old friend from the army, and right before he says “we hadn’t seen each other for years”. This means it was him and his other pals from the army that called him “Ronald of Nice” and not the other members of the Golden Rose Theater.

Ronald is a name from Old Norse that is composed of “advice, counsel, decision” and “power, ruler”. “Advice” or “counsel” could relate to how Ronald was helping the Detective all throughout his investigation, introducing him to the different members and briefly explaining who they were, as well as talking to people when the Detective couldn’t, how Ronald helps the Detective figure things out, and various other ways. Regarding the “power” or “ruler” part, this could relate to how Ronald is the lead actor of the Golden Rose Theater, as well as could refer to Ronald’s desire to become owner of the Golden Rose Theater.

Regarding the last part of his name, “Nice” is a city in France. Sometimes called “Nice the Beautiful”, the city was founded by the Greeks and named after Nike, the Greek goddess of victory. The connection to the Greeks fits with how much they’re connected to the main lore of the game, while Nike and “victory” may connect to Norton’s Highway Cavalier skin, as he achieves “victory” in COA 4. Inference says that Ronald’s name reflects his personality. Therefore, maybe what he’s saying is that Ronald is someone who wants to win and works hard to achieve “victory” or success.

That’s everything I have. Hope this was a fun journey for everyone. I’m not the most knowledgeable on some of the topics I mentioned in here, so don’t be too harsh with me. I don’t mind constructive criticism though.

[tomorrowusa]

Stuff like this is not exactly news, but it is finally making the news.

In a speech at the Turning Point Action convention in Detroit on Saturday night, former President Donald Trump once again questioned President Joe Biden's mental acuity, suggesting that Biden should take a cognitive test. However, in the next breath, Trump confused the name of the doctor who administered the test to him during his presidency. "He doesn't even know what the word 'inflation' means. I think he should take a cognitive test like I did," Trump said of Biden. Seconds later, he continued, "Doc Ronny Johnson. Does everyone know Ronny Johnson, congressman from Texas? He was the White House doctor, and he said I was the healthiest president, he feels, in history, so I liked him very much indeed immediately."

The doctor Trump was referring to is actually named Ronny Jackson, not Ronny Johnson. Jackson, who served as the White House physician for part of Trump's presidency, is now a Republican congressman from Texas and one of Trump's most vocal defenders on Capitol Hill. Trump, who turned 78 on Friday, has made questioning whether the 81-year-old Biden is fit for a second term a centerpiece of his campaign. However, critics quickly seized on his Saturday night gaffe, with the Biden campaign posting a clip of the moment, minutes later.

Biden has had a lifelong stutter which he's mostly overcome. Trump's attacks on the disabled to draw attention from his own shortcomings are just part of his routine.

In fact, Trump is the candidate who repeatedly has shown increasing signs of psychological derangement.

In April, a leading psychologist said Trump's mental capabilities appear to be "faltering in a very dangerous way," while speaking on the David Packman Show. Harry Segal, a senior lecturer in psychology at Cornell University who has been critical of the former president's mental health said he believed Trump's "cognitive decline as being another layer of danger on top of an already erratic, mentally challenged person who shouldn't be anywhere near the White House."

As for Dr. Ronny Johnson Jackson, using him as a source is rather dubious.

First on CNN: Rep. Ronny Jackson made sexual comments, drank alcohol and took Ambien while working as White House physician, Pentagon watchdog finds

The Department of Defense inspector general has issued a scathing review of Rep. Ronny Jackson during his time serving as the top White House physician, concluding that he made “sexual and denigrating” comments about a female subordinate, violated the policy for drinking alcohol while on a presidential trip and took prescription-strength sleeping medication that prompted concerns from his colleagues about his ability to provide proper care.

Johnson Jackson got the nickname "Candyman" for freely handing out drugs at the White House.

Ex-White House doctor known as the ‘candyman’ dispensed pills without prescriptions

A former White House doctor was allegedly nicknamed the “candyman” for handing out pills to staff without prescriptions. [ ... ]

Former members of the White House medical unit claim that under Dr Jackson’s leadership, they had handed out stimulants and sedatives without prescriptions, and faked staff members’ identities to give them free healthcare. They claimed the practices had been shaped by Dr Jackson, now a Republican congressman, who was given the nicknames “Dr Feelgood” and “the Candyman”.

I'd love to see an analysis of Trump's blood. In addition to sky high levels of caffeine from his 12 Diet Cokes® per day, there are probably some interesting chemicals churning through his system.

[scumashling]

Welcome newcomers! You can call me Ash (they/she).

About this account

•i made this account after realizing I've been into whump for years without knowing it and discovering that I'm not alone in finding comfort in fiction about characters being put through emotional and or physical hell. I've often struggled with intense shame related to my interest in whump, especially as it's tied to my own trauma, so learning about this community has felt like a huge weight off my chest.

•fan of: defiant whumpee, intimate whumper, Lady whump, living weapon, non con body modification, drugged Whumpee, revenge whump, dehumanization, fantasy whump,Bastard whumpee, religious whump, Whumpee turned Whumper, Bad Caretaker and nsfwhump,

•I'm fairly new to tumblr and am still trying to get a feel for how things work around here, both in terms of the people and the site itself, so I apologize in advance for any possible future faux pas. I'm also a novice writer and still building my confidence in it, but I do I intend to post some of my own fiction, art, and memes.

•I'm in too many fandoms to count but currently you can expect stuff related to Chainsaw Man, Berserk, Slay the Princess, The Boys, and Delicious in Dungeon

•DNIs: I don't intend for this to be an overtly political account, and i'm not into policing people's behavior so giving a list of opinions/positions I find morally objectionable and demanding you keep away from my account if you hold them isn't my style. If I think something you posted is wack then I will simply unfollow or block you, because I am an adult who knows and enforces their own boundaries. That being said, I am a leftist (socially, economically, foreign policy wise) and related themes are more then likely to show up in my fiction, so if you have a problem with that my account probably isn't for you. The one exception to the DNI is Zionists (including "progressive" two staters) in which case, fuck Israel, fuck genocide, fuck you for supporting it, you're a N@zi, Long Live a Free Palestine 🇵🇸

•WARNING: there will be non con stuff posted on this account, as well as general content related to abuse, kink, trauma and addiction, as well as the occasional gore post. I will use appropriate tags/cws but if that is not something you can handle, or just not something you're into hearing about, please take care of yourself and disengage. I use fiction to cope with my own history and truly do not want anyone else to be harmed by it

•I do not consider myself proship or antiship and as far as I'm concerned yall both have some weird people on your side. Basically as long as you aren't being creepy or harassing anyone, have common sense around media literacy/ engaging with fiction as fiction, but don't use the fact that it's fiction to avoid thinking about real world implications/themes, you are welcome on my page.

some facts about me:

•im a nonbinary femme lesbian who's currently studying fine arts.

•I'm mixed (Asian and white)

•I'm a 22 years old

•I was diagnosed with autism at age 18. Some of my special interests include manga, horror, feminist theory, animation, media analysis, mycology, vampires and cooking.

•i adore poetry, my favorites are Lady Lazarus by Sylvia Plath, Ozymandias by Percy Shelley, and She Had Some Horses by Joy Harjo (specifically the canto Drowning Horses)

•I have been drawing for 7 years

[onecornerface]

Drug use & drug harms - long version

I'm interested in feedback or sources from anyone who knows relevant stuff in economics, policy analysis, or whatever.

X = drug use (e.g. total volume of substances consumed) Y = drug-related harms (e.g. physical & mental harms to the user + harmful acts & omissions by users against nonusers) There is a phenomenon in drug policy where policymakers see “X causes Y”, then they aim to reduce X (in order to instrumentally reduce Y, in direct proportion); but the result is “the remaining X causes *more* Y (per average token instance of X)”-- to such a severe degree that the total Y increases (despite the reduction in X). Is there a name for this? This seems similar to Goodhart’s Law? I'm not sure if it is strictly an instance of it? I could also subdivide it into a few parts, like (1) "use-reduction sometimes increases average harm-per-use" and (2) "sometimes #1 happens to such a degree that it increases total harm (not only average harm)." I claim that #1 is clearly true, and that #2 is often true as well (at least in countries where many people use drugs). However, here I'm not so much concerned to defend these claims, but mainly to better *specify* them. I'm just mainly looking for terminology, theoretical frameworks, and conceptual tools to clarify the basic ideas. Pls halp. To illustrate the idea more: In theory, it makes sense to try to reduce (the total amount of) drug harms *by* reducing (the total amount of) drug use. Ceteris paribus, "less drug use" DOES mean "less drug harms." Obviously. Halving the drug use should halve the drug harms. If legalization would increase drug use, then legalization should increase the drug harms. Hence why so much of the debate is over what does or doesn't increase drug use, without even bothering to carve "use" from "harm." (Not to mention non-drug harms, and deontic considerations like rights & autonomy, which complicate the picture further. I will set these aside here.) Hence why drug prohibitionists (like the ONDCP, led by the "drug czar") often cite use-reduction as their main proxy target for success in drug policy. (Some people also consider use-reduction an *intrinsic* value. I think this view is morally indefensible, for reasons I won't go into here. I'll be treating use-reduction as only *instrumentally* valuable. Also, some people slide between treating "use-reduction" as intrinsically valuable vs. treating it as instrumentally valuable-- I think this may involve a motte-and-bailey, or pandering to multiple audiences at once {e.g. keeping both moralists and pragmatists on board with prohibition] or suchlike.) However, there is a big problem: The "ceteris paribus" clause does NOT obtain-- and this is precisely because the *methods* of drug-use-reduction *increase* the harm-per-use. Prohibition may reduce total drug use, but prohibition *also* ensures that the average token instance of drug use is more harmful (compared to the average token instance of drug use under legalization). (For simplicity, I'm focused mainly on simple prohibition and simple legalization-- leaving out the many variants of each, and the many in-between positions.) Sometimes this harm-increase is a *byproduct* of the methods of use-reduction (e.g. cutting down the drug sales, leading to more dangerous volatility in the remaining drug market). And sometimes this harm-increase is an *intended* method of use-reduction (e.g. via direct and indirect punishments of users, like arrests and housing-evictions). In any case, this entails that use-reduction is a very flawed metric of drug policy success-- because the methods of prohibition will complicate the relationship between drug use and drug harm. (For "Goodhart’s Law"-esque reasons?) This is a problem worth analyzing even if one disagrees with my claim that prohibition increases total harm.

[probablyasocialecologist]

Portugal’s 2001 decriminalization law that saw such success crucially did more than decriminalize drug possession. It also set up robust harm reduction as well as treatment and recovery programs. Those in active addiction could get clean paraphernalia and medical supervision as well as methadone, which eases opioid withdrawals. Those caught with drugs are sent to dissuasion commissions, which determine if the user is addicted, and if so, recommend treatment programs. If the addict voluntarily chooses to attend treatment, the commission books it for them, and they can attend for free. After residential treatment programs, recovering addicts get job support from the government, including loans to start worker cooperatives. Portugal treated addiction as a health issue rather than a criminal one, and unlike the United States, it treated health care as a right. Amid an economic crisis, budget cuts and outsourcing destroyed Portugal’s world-renowned drug treatment system. In 2012, “Portugal decentralized its drug oversight operation” as “a funding drop from 76 million euros ($82.7 million) to 16 million euros ($17.4 million) forced Portugal’s main institution to outsource work previously done by the state to nonprofit groups.” At the same time, the country’s Institute for Drugs and Drug Addiction was disbanded and absorbed into the National Health Service, which simultaneously had its own budget cut by 10 percent. The result: year-long waits for state-funded rehabilitation treatment, and a sharply decreasing number of people treated. Blaming government disinvestment, João Goulão — Portugal’s drug czar since 2005 and the architect of the decriminalization policy — said, “What we have today no longer serves as an example to anyone.” Speaking almost a decade ago, a dissuasion commission member said, “If the person shows up at ten o’clock in the morning, we can schedule them for one o’clock in the afternoon at the treatment facility in order for them to start the analysis.” With wait times for treatment in Portugal going from four hours before the effects of austerity kicked in to an entire year, is it any mystery that Portugal’s drug statistics have been getting worse?

[religion-is-a-mental-illness]

By: Paul Terdal

Published: Jul 2, 2024

It’s understandable to want to help troubled kids. But the evidence simply isn’t there that unproven drugs and surgeries are what they need.

In our drive to eliminate health inequities, my fellow liberal Democrats and I are eager to help children who identify as transgender. This compassionate urge has led our state, Oregon, to fast-track Medicaid coverage of medical transition services for kids, including puberty-blockers, cross-sex hormones, and surgical removal of breasts and genitals. Yet I’m deeply concerned that in the push for equity, Oregon has ignored evidence, to the point of jeopardizing children’s health. I know from experience that my state can do better to ensure that kids get medically necessary care.

Oregon has long been a national and even international model for evidence-based medicine. I personally encountered my state’s strong commitment to medical science after my two young sons were diagnosed with autism in the late 2000s. At the time, few autism treatments were covered by insurance or Medicaid anywhere in America, so I worked with state leaders and a broader coalition to right that wrong. One key hurdle was Oregon’s Health Evidence Review Commission (HERC), which determines what treatments Medicaid covers and strongly influences the coverage of private health-insurance plans.

HERC held us to its customary high standards for quality of evidence. We organized testimony from some of the world’s leading experts on autism and submitted reams of peer-reviewed journal articles, all of which were rigorously scrutinized by HERC’s experts. We prevailed only after the U.S. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality published a groundbreaking systematic review that supported the effectiveness of behavioral interventions for autistic children. In 2014, HERC approved Medicaid coverage of such treatments for children like mine. HERC’s wise focus on evidence steered patients and physicians away from risky and unproven interventions that were popular at the time, some of which, such as chelation therapy, reportedly killed autistic children. To this day, I’m grateful for the commission’s high standards.

Yet HERC hasn’t upheld the same standards for gender medicine. To its credit, the commission began looking at this issue in 2012, before gender dysphoria was on the social radar. At the time, based primarily on studies of adults over the age of 30, it concluded that there was “very poor evidence” of benefits of medical interventions for patients. Even so, HERC decided in 2014 to provide comprehensive Medicaid coverage for puberty-blockers, cross-sex hormones, and surgeries for anyone, including children, who identifies as transgender. In a strange departure from its own rules, HERC didn’t run these policies through its evidence-based-guidelines subcommittee. In my fight for autism coverage, that subcommittee was the most important part of the process.

I’m confident the commissioners were trying to help people in what was then a unique situation. At the time, in 2015, the state estimated that very few patients would choose medical transition: according to NPR, “at least 175” patients per year, of all ages. NPR quoted HERC’s medical expert as estimating that the combined total cost for this coverage would be “up to $200,000 — for the whole state.” Yet by 2019, more than 7,500 Oregonians were receiving such treatment, at a cost of over $20 million per year. Based on my analysis of state data, hundreds of children have received some combination of puberty-blockers, cross-sex hormones, and surgeries. None of these procedures have gone through clinical trials to demonstrate their safety and effectiveness, and in the case of hormones, children are receiving drugs that haven’t been approved for such use by the FDA.

Amid this exponential rise, HERC in 2023 commissioned a thorough review of the latest studies. The draft report, which I obtained via a freedom-of-information request, found that the evidence was still very limited. For youth, the investigators reported that they were unable to find any systematic reviews — the key evidence we had to provide for autism coverage — with “extractable data” showing benefits of transgender treatments for children. The report also noted that many lower-quality studies can’t be applied to patients who seek a rapid gender-affirming transition, which is typically the case with children. The report was essentially Oregon’s version of the Cass Report, which the United Kingdom released in April.

Yet Oregon’s report was never finalized, and HERC staff didn’t even present their draft to the body’s 13 commissioners. Instead, after the state passed a law requiring the coverage of “accepted standards of care” for transgender treatments, HERC quickly endorsed guidelines from an advocacy group — without any analysis of the contents. The guidelines are highly aggressive yet based on low-quality evidence. Today, preteen Oregonians can be put on powerful chemicals without FDA approval, before moving on to surgeries as adolescents. These interventions can irreversibly alter their bodies and leave them less likely or even unable to have children of their own later in life. The risks to their physical and mental health are high and, crucially, not justified by existing proof of benefit.

Equity cannot be achieved by ignoring evidence and stripping away consumer protections from historically underserved people. While I deeply sympathize with the goal of helping struggling kids, we can’t accept shortcutting medical ethics — and we didn’t accept it a decade ago, with autism coverage. The ethical path is for HERC to define “accepted standards of care” based on the best science. Medicine is supposed to follow the evidence because health and well-being hang in the balance. The stakes are especially high for children. If we truly want to be equitable, Oregon will stop undermining children’s right to evidence-based medical care.

[ Via: https://archive.today/WcL66 ]

[metamatar]

America’s most radical experiment with drug decriminalization has ended, after more than three years of painful results. Oregon Governor Tina Kotek has pledged to sign legislation repealing the principal elements of the ballot initiative known as Measure 110: Possessing hard drugs is again a crime in Oregon, and courts will return to mandating treatment for offenders. Oregonians had supported Measure 110 with 59 percent of the vote in 2020, but three years later, polling showed that 64 percent wanted some or all of it repealed. [...]

Measure 110 did not reduce Oregon’s drug problems. The drug-overdose-death rate increased by 43 percent in 2021, its first year of implementation—and then kept rising. The latest CDC data show that in the 12 months ending in September 2023, deaths by overdose grew by 41.6 percent, versus 2.1 percent nationwide. No other state saw a higher rise in deaths. Only one state, Vermont, ranks higher in its rate of illicit drug use.

[...] Neither did decriminalization produce a flood of help-seeking. The replacement for criminal penalties, a $100 ticket for drug possession with the fine waived if the individual called a toll-free number for a health assessment, with the aim of encouraging treatment, failed completely.

Unpaywalled link: https://archive.is/g4I2R from the Atlantic, so obviously the conclusions are pretty reactionary. Piece includes claiming Oregon never had a war on drugs despite Black Oregon Residents having 2.5 times as many possession convictions.

Surprisingly the economist here https://archive.is/29DIs in an older piece has a slightly better diagnosis.

What seems to be the failure of Measure 110 is a solely criminal justice approach

Portugal decriminalised possession of drugs for personal use in 2001, the first country to do so. There, drug-induced deaths have since fallen and street dealing is uncommon. But Portugal’s policy is different: offenders are taken to a police station and must go before a dissuasion panel at the Ministry of Health. Fully 80% of addicts then choose to start treatment. Repeat offenders face punishment, like being banned from bars, or community service, enforced by police. “The state still has a paternalistic approach,” says João Goulão, one of the architects of Portugal’s effort.

Supporters of Oregon’s policy hope that peer mentors—former addicts—can encourage people to enter treatment voluntarily. They were allocated extra funding in the same ballot measure in 2020. But although possession was decriminalised three months after voting, it took another 20 months for the funding to roll out fully. “If I had to do it all over again, I think I would reverse the way that we’ve done it,” reflects Rob Nosse, a state representative.

Even with the extra funding now being spent, Oregon’s drug treatment remains woefully scarce. Addiction-support workers in Portland estimate that the wait for residential treatment can be up to three months. Recent state analysis found that it needed 60% more inpatient facilities. But the extra money will be going to other services, like the mentors, as well as needle exchanges and supported housing.

[mariacallous]

Al Qaeda is back to its old tricks in Afghanistan. Much as it did before masterminding the 9/11 attacks, the terrorist group is running militant training camps; sharing the profits of the Taliban’s illicit drug, mining, and smuggling enterprises; and funneling the proceeds to affiliated jihadi groups worldwide.

An unpublished report circulating among Western diplomats and U.N. officials details how deeply embedded the group once run by Osama bin Laden is in the Taliban’s operations, as they loot Afghanistan’s natural wealth and steal international aid meant to alleviate the suffering of millions of Afghans.

The report was completed by a private, London-based threat analysis firm whose directors did not want to be identified. A copy was provided to Foreign Policy and its findings verified by independent sources. It is based on research conducted inside Afghanistan in recent months and includes a list of senior al Qaeda operatives and the roles they play in the Taliban’s administration.

To facilitate its ambitions, al Qaeda is raking in tens of millions of dollars a week from gold mines in Afghanistan’s northern Badakhshan and Takhar provinces that employ tens of thousands of workers and are protected by warlords friendly to the Taliban, the report says. The money represents a 25 percent share in proceeds from gold and gem mines; 11 gold mines are geolocated in the report. The money is shared with al Qaeda by the two Taliban factions: Sirajuddin Haqqani’s Kabul faction and Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada’s Kandahar faction, suggesting both leaders, widely regarded as archrivals, see a cozy relationship with al Qaeda as furthering their own interests as well as helping to entrench the group’s overall power.

The Taliban’s monthly take from the gold mines tops $25 million, though this money “does not appear in their official budget,” the report says. Quoting on-the-ground sources, it says the money “goes directly into the pockets of top-ranking Taliban officials and their personal networks.” Since the mines began operating in early 2022, al Qaeda’s share has totaled $194.4 million, it says.

After regaining power in August 2021, the Taliban integrated a large number of listed terrorist groups that fought alongside them against the U.S.-supported Afghan republic. The Biden administration, however, has persistently denied that al Qaeda has reconstituted in Afghanistan or even that al Qaeda and the Taliban have maintained their long, close relationship.

Those denials ring hollow as evidence piles up that the Taliban and al Qaeda are as close as ever. The U.N. Security Council and the U.S. Congress-mandated Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) have consistently reported on the Taliban’s symbiotic relationship with dozens of banned terrorist outfits, including al Qaeda.

Few experts believed Taliban leaders’ assurances, during negotiations with former U.S. President Donald Trump that led to the ignominious U.S. retreat, that the group’s relationship with al Qaeda was over; bin Laden’s vision of a global caliphate based in Afghanistan was a guiding principle of the war that returned the Taliban regime, which one Western official in Kabul said differs only from the previous regime in 1996-2001 in that “they are even better at repression.”

The historic relationship hit global headlines when bin Laden’s successor, Ayman al-Zawahiri, was killed on July 31, 2022, in a U.S. drone strike as he stood by the window of a Kabul villa. The property was linked to Haqqani, the head of the largely autonomous Haqqani network and a member of al Qaeda’s leadership structure. He is also a deputy head of the Taliban and its interior minister, overseeing security. He is believed to harbor ambitions for the top job of supreme leader, with aspirations to become caliph.

Now that they can operate with impunity, the reports says, the Taliban are once again providing al Qaeda commanders and operatives with everything they need, from weapons to wives, housing, passports, and access to the vast smuggling network built up over decades to facilitate the heroin empire that bankrolled the Taliban’s war.

The routes have been repurposed for lower-cost, higher-return methamphetamine, weapons, cash, gold, and other contraband. Militants from Yemen, Libya, Somalia, and the Palestinian territories also circulate through the al Qaeda training camps that have been revived since the Taliban takeover. Security is provided by the Taliban’s General Directorate of Intelligence.

The report includes a list of al Qaeda commanders, some of whom were bin Laden’s lieutenants when he was living in Afghanistan while planning the attacks on the United States. Those atrocities precipitated the U.S.-led invasion that drove him, and the Taliban leadership, into Pakistan, where they were sheltered, funded, and armed by the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence agency.

The report’s findings “demonstrate that, as expected, the Taliban leadership continues to be willing to protect not only the leadership of al Qaeda but also fighters, including foreign terrorist fighters from a long list of al Qaeda affiliates,” said Hans-Jakob Schindler, the senior director of the Berlin- and New York-based Counter Extremism Project and an expert on terrorism. “It is clear that the Taliban have never changed their stance toward international terrorism and, in particular, al Qaeda.”

Many analysts believe President Joe Biden’s decision to stick to Trump’s withdrawal deal led to Afghanistan becoming an incubator of extremism and terrorism. Leaders of neighboring and regional states, including Iran, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and countries in Central Asia, have expressed concern about the threat posed by the Taliban’s transnational ambitions. U.N. figures, including Special Rapporteur Richard Bennett, have repeatedly called out Taliban suppression of rights and freedoms and the imprisonment and killing of perceived opponents.

In February, the George W. Bush Institute released the first report in its three-part Captured State series titled “Corruption and Kleptocracy in Afghanistan Under the Taliban,” which recommends action by the United States and the U.N. to rein in Taliban excesses. It calls on the United States and allies “to pressure foreign enablers of Taliban corruption and reputation laundering to stop facilitating corrupt economic trading activities, illicit trafficking, and moving and stashing personal wealth outside Afghanistan.”

Pointedly, it says the U.N. and other aid organizations “should demand greater accountability for how aid is spent and distributed” and urges international donors to support civil society, which has been decimated by the Taliban.

It’s a reference to the billions of dollars in aid that have been sent to Afghanistan since the republic collapsed—including, controversially, $40 million in cash each week, which has helped keep the local currency stable despite economic implosion. The United States is the biggest supporter, funneling more than $2.5 billion to the country from October 2021 to September 2023, SIGAR said. Foreign Policy has reported extensively on the Taliban’s systematic pilfering of foreign humanitarian aid for redistribution to supporters, which has exacerbated profound poverty.

The Bush Institute paper is one of the few comprehensive studies of the impact of the Taliban’s return to power to publicly call for the group to face consequences for its actions. It suggests, for instance, the enforcement of international travel bans on Taliban leaders, which are easily and often flouted.

Recognition of the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan “would reinforce the Taliban’s claim to power and strengthen their position” by giving them even greater access to “cold, hard cash,” the report says, a warning that comes amid growing fears that the United States could be preparing to reopen its Kabul embassy, which the Taliban would see as tacit recognition.

By “capturing the Afghan state, the Taliban have significantly upgraded their access to resources,” the Bush Institute argues, putting the group “in the perfect position now to loot it for their own individual gain.”

That plundered resource wealth also appears to be boosting the coffers of like-minded groups. The London firm’s unpublished report identifies 14 al Qaeda affiliates—most of them listed by the U.N. Security Council’s Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team—that are directly benefiting from the mining proceeds. They include seven inside Afghanistan (among them, the anti-China East Turkestan Islamic Movement, the anti-Tajikistan Jamaat Ansarullah, and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, which is fighting the Pakistani state) and seven operating elsewhere: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, al Qaeda in Yemen, al Qaeda in Iraq, al Qaeda in Syria, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, al Qaeda in the Mahgreb, and al-Shabab, largely active in East Africa.

For Western governments that might be pondering a closer relationship with the Taliban regime or even diplomatic recognition, Schindler of the Counter Extremism Project sounded a note of warning. The Taliban, he said, are “not a viable counterterrorism partner, even on a tactical level.” Instead, the group “remains one of the prime sponsors of terrorism” worldwide.