#but we cannot fight policy forever

[sonicthedestiel]

I RAN OUT OF ROOM IN THE TAGS FCKN HELL

[anarcowboy]

Boiling it down to any single factor is a mistake when it's a soup of dogshit

--there was substantial decrease in voter turnout between 2020 and 2024. more voters than 2016 tho, and still a popular loss. Woof. 3rd party votes did not make a difference and even if all "other", Stein, AND libertarian votes went to Harris she'd still lose (libertarian pulled from Trump more than Harris)

--running to the right of Trump on various issues normalized conservative policy, so those who they attempted to court could get the same results from Trump without having to vote blue

--those they attempted to court are also, yes, a lot of racists and misogynists. The Black vote was almost unanimously in favor of Harris. Just wildly strong polling. The Latino/Latina vote was split, men leaned Trump and women leaned Harris. The white vote skewed pretty strongly to Trump. Failing to ever address white supremacy and instead court it will never make a woman of color appeal to these people, no matter how "lethal military strong border" fascist you try to be

--Harris's campaign ruthlessly belittled her constituents. They refused to speak with people, canceled meetings, mocked them, and tried to make a fool of people in mourning, scared, devastated, yet still ready to vote for her if she gave them crumbs. She didn't. The campaign turned its back, like Clinton did before, on people willing to vote for her if she put any effort into getting their votes. But like in 2016, Schumer was confident you could replace blue collar dems with suburban republicans. it failed. twice. The whole campaign trail has been littered with contempt for their own base. Harris didn't even speak at her own rally last night and sent everyone home.

--2020 has shifted us into an era of extremism and desperation. People are angry. People are scared. Multiple people have tried to kill trump in the last few months. Many voted for him not because they like him but because they have contempt for Harris, whether reasonable or bigoted varies across the board.

--Even as min wage hikes pass, abortion passes, social security expansion passes, and "radical" politicians like Omar and Tlaib win re-elections in the same exact places Harris loses, anchors blame progressive policy for her downfall. Even now, the marginalized people used as pawns by her campaign are being thrown to the wolves for her loss.

--The dems never learn from a loss. They are a center-right party with substantial hatred for progressive policy even as progressive policy polls as wildly popular among the masses. They loathe their base, while Republicans are willing to kiss the asses of theirs.

--Trump will fail to meet all the expectations placed on him, and his base will become angry. Then rather than ever run a platform to help working class americans, marginalized people in substantial and lasting ways, the dems will court those disillusioned by Trump, until they fail to wow them next time and a new fascist runs.

--The two party system does not work, especially when both are right-wing. Trump is not the sole issue and never was. He's convenient cover. Biden is too weak to do anything, then Trump will be too powerful to stop. It repeats forever. But this dance is crumbling for people. Something is breaking and people are tired of it. We have always been a fascist nation that is rapidly becoming more fascist, and unless something truly radical on the left becomes a possibility for dems that can grab the masses and inspire hope--like say, Bernie Sanders--then we are doomed to slide ever right-ward forever until collapse. But hey, the dems certainly wouldn't sabotage and kill a movement like Bernie's, right?

To sum up: we are in a fucked up time where we refuse to reckon with our past and white supremacy and instead cater to it and then have the nerve to be shocked it bites you once again. In politics and in life you cannot appeal to white supremacy, it is a snake to defeat.

Organize, find solidarity, fight, and god while you need to stop bending over for your enemy, you'd maybe be inclined to learn from them, understand them, and realize the way to defeating them has always been with force and a "fuck you I'm here to stay" attitude.

Electoral politics are never the beginning or end of what politics is. The presidential election is even a very small part of that process. Support community work protecting the people neither party will, support organizations working to undo the harm of these parties, and stop seeing this as a team sport with black and white villains and heroes where one side of a corrupt system represents the good guys and so surely their loss can only come from Evil Forces and not a system performing as designed.

[covid-safer-hotties]

Health experts warn against COVID complacency in schools amid surge - Published Aug 25, 2024

Health experts are urging school staff and families to take active steps to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 amid rising infections as school districts stick to their previous plans to combat the virus similarly to how they would the flu or strep throat.

Weekly deaths from COVID-19 have steadily risen in the United States since mid-June, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID Data Tracker.

And wastewater viral activity for the disease — which is monitored as a means of detecting where a potential outbreak may occur — has gradually climbed since May, with the national level now “very high,” according to the CDC.

The rising rates are having little effect on the start of the school year, however. Schools have largely chosen to treat COVID-19 like RSV or the common flu, at the recommendation of health organizations like the CDC.

“COVID forever changed the landscape of education. As it stands now, in both districts (Meridian CUSD 223 and Oregon CUSD 220) I have the pleasure of leading we are moving forward full steam ahead and treating COVID in the same form and fashion we would treat influenza or strep throat,” said PJ Caposey, superintendent of Meridian School District in Illinois.

“The impact COVID has had on schools and on society cannot be understated, but currently it is not impacting how we operate and serve kids,” he added.

School districts are still feeling tremendous impacts from the coronavirus and the widespread closures it drove earlier in the pandemic, such as students struggling to catch back up academically.

Recent data from nonprofit research group NWEA found that students going into high school are a full year behind academically.

Since the CDC has classified COVID-19 under the umbrella of respiratory illnesses, in the same category as the flu, schools have dropped precautions previously put in place to mitigate the spread of the virus such as masks or social distancing.

Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD), for instance, previously had policies requiring students and faculty to stay out of school longer if they contract COVID-19 and to wear masks for a certain period when they came back.

LAUSD posted on social media in August that due to high vaccination rates, COVID-19 will be treated like RSV. The district stressed that those with COVID-19 need to stay home if they have symptoms or a fever and cannot come back until symptoms start improving and the fever is gone for 24 hours without medicine.

Amid the current rise in COVID-19 cases and with another likely surge looming during the fall or winter months ahead, health experts are urging school communities not to become complacent when fighting against the virus’s spread.

The most important thing families and school staff can do to protect themselves is to get vaccinated, according to Jodie Guest, senior vice chair of epidemiology at Emory University’s Rollins School of Public Health.

As of May, only about a quarter of U.S. adults and about 14 percent of children were reported to be up to date on a COVID-19 vaccination, according to CDC data.

The Food and Drug Administration approved updated Moderna and Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines Thursday to more closely target the recent strains of the virus, as well as potential fall and winter variants.

Adults and children 6 months and older are eligible for the updated vaccines, according to the CDC. Children 5 years old and up will need one shot of an updated vaccine to remain current, while children between 6 months and 4 years old might need multiple shots.

The updated shots will likely be on pharmacy shelves within “the coming days.” Those who have recently been infected with COVID-19 can delay getting the updated vaccine for up to three months, per CDC guidelines.

On top of getting the shot, Guest encourages school staff and parents to regularly test themselves and children for COVID-19 infections because testing “still really matters.”

“If your kid comes home and is not feeling well and showing signs that might be COVID, might be something else, going ahead with at-home testing is an important way to stop spread in your family and to stop spread in schools,” she said.

Sick adults and children should test themselves multiple times at home to ensure they do not have the virus, Guest said. If a first at-home antigen test is negative, she recommends taking a second test 36 to 48 hours later “to make sure it’s a true negative.”

School staff members who think they are sick should stay home, health experts agree. Parents should also keep their children home from school if they are sick to reduce the chance of spreading COVID-19 to others.

“If you are sick, stay home. Don’t infect others,” said David Weber, epidemiologist and associate chief medical officer of UNC Health Care.

While COVID-19 infections are typically less severe in children, kids can still suffer complications from contracting the virus, like long COVID, which may appear differently in adolescents than in adults.

Children can also serve as vectors for the virus, potentially spreading it to more vulnerable people like older relatives.

“You really don’t want to bring this home particularly if you have grandparents living with you,” said Andrew Pekosz, a professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health who studies respiratory illnesses including COVID-19.

However, it appears unlikely that schools will change their standards to fight COVID-19 without official recommendations from the CDC.

“Schools put measures in place through the COVID-19 pandemic to mitigate the spread of infection including vaccination clinics, cleaning procedures, and mitigation protocols that should be followed just as with any other communicable diseases such as the seasonal flu,” said Jeanie Alter, executive director of the American School Health Association, a group that supports health professionals in schools and advocates for healthy school environments.

“It will be important for schools to review and update these practices and continue with best practice guidance from reputable science-based organizations such as CDC,” she said.

[tumblingxelian]

Political Discourse - Retrospective

So, regarding some political discourse that happened on my blog earlier, I want to clarify some things.

1: Hyperbole doesn't translate well across text, this applies both to me and those I've spoken/argued with. Hyperbole doesn't translate well when one can't see the associated dramatic body language or tone that would serve to convey that.

2: Context is key, so if one does want to take issue with something its best to have all the pieces in place rather than expecting context clues to create a common frame of reference as it might in a verbal conversation.

3: Its much easier to just not bother and direct one's energy into more helpful and practical goals than arguing online.

On the more political front, I do have some thoughts however:

I am posting this in a good faith effort to not argue or antagonize:

Firstly, I feel that for all Americas horrifically out-sized influence on the world one cannot just dismiss domestic issues as unimportant. Even if we ignore the ripple effects of a right wing VS left wing president on a purely cultural level, the sheer number of queer people, women, and people of color who will be actively targeted if Trump gets back into power is staggering.

There is a marked difference between the parties on these fronts and people will live or die based on that. Let alone stuff like Trumps handling of Covid and how his intransigence basically fucked the rest of the world over, along with killing millions of Americans.

Basically, when the difference between the the parties of the most powerful nation on earth are so drastically different in terms of who even counts as human, being a one issue voter doesn’t really work as an ethical or even practical approach to politics —especially not addressing the kinds of issues making it hard to stomach voting for someone like Biden.

Secondly, I feel a lot of the discourse around the US & Israel's ties are not very helpful or accurate as they often seem to frame it as though they just became allies under Biden or otherwise that this is a new relationship. As it is, ties between the two countries are nearly a century old at this stage and disentangling from that is not easy.

What's more, a politically active American friend said that they feel a lot of Americans, themselves included, often oversimplify foreign policy and that it's never as simple as a good or bad decision.

In this case, America's main focus is trying to keep the war from going regional while not losing what influence they have over a nuclear equipped state in the Middle East.

(It was also notes how the messages of trying to "fight antisemitism" as opposed to just being blunt about the political realities was manipulative and poorly thought out at best.)

But the fact is, as horrific as what Israel is doing is, it's not something Biden just started supporting at random. America's ties are decades long and not easy to divest from without creating more instability and bloodshed in the long run.

So while I of course advocate for pushing for action on these fronts, its integral to both remember that foreign policy is a nightmare and that one will have far better luck using protest to force a Democratic president to change course than a GOP one who will just tell the police to shoot you.

Thirdly, I think its quite reasonable for none Americans to take an interest in these matters. Hell, I have been an activist for years, donating and campaigning on everything from America's forever war, to Palestinian rights, Queer rights both locally and internationally and beyond since childhood.

Add in that, even aside from morality, I've no shortage of friends in other nations who will be impacted by who is president and friends in America who are justly terrified of dying or having to flee the country should Trump get back in.

Put simply, I feel my and other none Americans persistent presence on the matter of who ends up in the White House can be regarded as selfish or coming from a place of privilege. We're asking you to vote because we can't and far more people will die and be hurt if Trump is in power, including yourselves.

We're trying to help.

Finally, I will not see eye to eye with other leftists, they will not see eye to eye with me. That's fine. Ultimately, though we disagree on how best energy should be directed for the common good, I don't think my counterparts, or I have ill intent or selfish motivations.

[batpham-discord-highlights]

Danny the teen heroes mentor Part 1

source: #crack

Part 2

Midas: Space Doorway CEO hero school, but it's Danny Fenton trying to give young heroes advice and doesn't realize he's a bit of a mentor now think Zoom except he really doesn't realize he's a mentor/teacher now

ectoentity | Dino Facts CIO aw

Midas: Space Doorway CEO Danny "I can help you with everything except hero costumes" Fenton

ectoentity | Dino Facts CIO his literally is part of him

soap something similar to "don't make that face or it'll get stuck forever", "don't wear that costume or you might be stuck in it like me"

Midas: Space Doorway CEO we cannot emphasize enough that, though it is not necessary, we prefer him doing this as Fenton

Midas: Space Doorway CEO [something similar to "don't make that face or it'll get stuck forever", "don't wear that costume or you might be stuck in it like me"] Amazing THEY THINK IT'S A METAPHOR

soap oh my gosh oh my gosh Fenton, the accidental mentor they wonder why he has such good advice he's just a civilian, why does he have intimate knowledge about government policies and budget first aid?

Midas: Space Doorway CEO Danny: heard you were joking and bantering while fighting kid: I can explain- Danny: I'm so proud, here, a book full of puns. Go wild, you little punk

Midas: Space Doorway CEO [he's just a civilian, why does he have intimate knowledge about government policies and budget first aid?] Y E S

soap Danny: the trick is to annoy your opponent until they get angry, then they get sloppy, and they're easier to deal with

Midas: Space Doorway CEO there's a method to the madness

soap how does he meet these various children?

Midas: Space Doorway CEO alleys. in the middle of attacks. on a roof. typical hero places

ectoentity | Dino Facts CIO he takes a vacation to go travelling with dani and they keep running into kid heroes

soap they each tell tales of this guy they met who told them some actually pretty helpful advice

Midas: Space Doorway CEO Kid: -struggling in the middle of a fight- Danny, a total stranger: aim to the person, not the device! you can take care of that after they're knocked out!

soap he's like, tied to a bomb with a bunch of other hostages

Midas: Space Doorway CEO Danny: you did such a good job out there Kid hero, confused but really happy about being recognized: t..thank… you?

soap its so funny to me that several kid heroes all know this random guy from a tourist-trap town by name, because he yelled advice at them during a fight

Midas: Space Doorway CEO Kids: and today's advice is..? Danny: Coffee is really addictive, please don't drink it- Yes, I know I'm drinking my 7th cup right now, that's the point

soap they start a group chat its mainly them asking Danny for advice on stuff they can't/don't want to ask their mentors

ectoentity | Dino Facts CIO "also it'll stunt your growth" danny, 5'5"

Midas: Space Doorway CEO "that explains a lot.."

soap occasionally he posts something completely out of context (e.g. "if you see a floating blue guy in overalls yelling about boxes, ignore him and call me, you'll only make it worse.")

Midas: Space Doorway CEO and it either never happens or it does the next f second

ectoentity | Dino Facts CIO — 10/21/2022 3:10 PM the groupchat is like "wtf blue guy?" and fifteen minutes later one of them pipes up "i was wondering what was going on with that guy" danny does not explain what was going on with that guy, he just shows up, soups him, and thanks the kid (all in human form)

soap or like "if you see a radioactive-green glowy liquid, DO NOT drink it!!! or touch it, preferably!!!!" on the side, one of the batboys (I'm thinking Tim?) just turns to look at Jason/Damian/Cass and squint

Pete [danny does not explain what was going on with that guy, he just shows up, soups him, and thanks the kid] appears from behind a street lamp offers to buy the kid some food

ectoentity | Dino Facts CIO yes the kid tries to get some answers "what was that guy?" "annoying"

soap "how do you know him?" "highschool."

[abdullahblogsposts]

Our war with the Mûshrįkįn will remain!

Allāh made the conflict between the people of Tawhīd and the people of Shîrk a tradition without end, as Islām and kûfr must inevitably contend in every place and time. Otherwise, the people of falsehood would seize the land and cause corruption therein through their Shîrk and pursuit of lusts and desires, as is happening today with the crusader takeover and hegemony of the world. Therefore, the eternal divine command for the people of Islām​ is to engage in war with Shîrk and its people, waging Jihād against them with their hands, tongues and hearts. Fighting them was enjoined to make them submit to the rule of Islām, to follow it and obey its rules, as Allāh (tabāraka wa ta’ālā) said, “And fight them until there is no more fitnāh and Dīn is entirely for Allāh” (Al-Anfāl:39). The people of Tawhīd will not stop their war against the Mûshrįkįn until they eliminate the existence of Shîrk in the world, and until there is no rule in it but that of Allāh.

The Knowing and Wise told His Muwāhîd worshipers that the people of Shîrk will always fight them, and that the goal of their fighting is to take them away from Islām and make them equally Mûshrįkįn. Allāh (‘azza wa jall) said, “And they will never cease fighting you until they turn you back from your Dīn if they can. And whosoever of you turns back from his Dīn and dies as a disbeliever, then his deeds will be lost in this life and in the next, and they will be the dwellers of the Fire. They will abide therein forever” (Al-Baqārāh:217). At the same time that Allāh (tabāraka wa ta’ālā) revealed the truth of their war and its purpose, He also warned Muslįmīn and enjoined them to prevent the Mûshrįkįn from succeeding in this war. He told them that the one who commits apostasy from his Dīn and is not patient amid the war of the Mûshrįkįn, thus dying in kûfr, will have lost all he had done of good deeds before his apostasy, even if he was a Muwāhîd, a Muhājir, and a Mujāhid. Allāh (‘azza wa jall) will not excuse the Muslim from fighting against the Mûshrįkįn, as fighting is not a form of ikrāh (unbearable coercion) for which a Muslim is excused if he fell into Shîrk.

How odd it is that we see today many factions and parties that attribute themselves to Islām boasting about not establishing the Dīn or ruling by the Shari’ah! They convince their soldiers and supporters that this is “wisdom” and “good policy” because it avoids fighting of Mûshrįkįn and retaliation from the hypocrites. Instead, they receive silent approval from the taw��ghīt and satisfaction from the people of desires. They thus turn a blind eye to the fact that they have achieved the goal of the Mûshrįkįn by committing riddāh (apostasy) from the Dīn of Allāh (tabāraka wa ta’ālā). Thus, they have set aside the purpose of fighting them, which is the same purpose that Allāh (‘azza wa jall) clearly said the Mûshrįkįn will continue fighting the Muslimīn!

He who realizes these facts will understand the reason for the fierce enmity that is shown by the people of Shîrk, in all their various sects and creeds, against the Islāmîc St@tə and its soldiers. He will realize the reason why the enemies of the Dīn gathered to fight it, regardless of their differences and disputes. And he will realize that the war between Islām and Shîrk cannot end in one round or two, but it is a continuous, relentless war, through which each party strives to achieve its purpose. The Islāmic St@tə made the purpose of its Jihād servitude to Allāh (tabāraka wa ta’ālā) by establishing the Dīn in the land, and that is through waging Jihād against the Mûshrįkįn and preserving that which Allāh (‘azza wa jall) has secured for them in the land, as well as seeking to make the Mûshrįkįn and their countries submit to the rule of Allāh (‘azza wa jall), or eradicate them all if they refuse. As for the Mûshrįkįn, they must realize that they will never be able to remove the Muslįmīn from the land, yet they continue striving to force the people of Islām to leave their foundation or push them to abandon some of its pillars or branches.

Today, and after years of war between the Islāmic St@tə and the Mûshrįkįn, a war led by crusader Amərica, the Islāmic St@tə remains firm on its ‘Aqīdāh and its Mânhâj, for which it paid a costly price—the blood of its leaders and soldiers—for the cause of refusing to compromise in Dīn, while many others ceded their entire Dīn for the sake of preserving life, wealth, lands and authority. Thus, Allāh (‘azza wa jall) made the Islāmic St@tə remain, giving it consolidation, after substituting the fallen, atop what they left behind. So let the Mûshrįkįn kill of us as many as Allāh (tabāraka wa ta’ālā) fated them to do so, for Allāh (tabāraka wa ta’ālā) will provide a better successor. Let them capture what Allāh (tabāraka wa ta’ālā) fated them to capture of land, for we will restore it from their hands and more than that, by the permission of Allāh (‘azza wa jall). Let them destroy the cities, villages, and military vehicles as much as Allāh fated them to destroy, for He will compensate us as He has always done. As long as the Dīn is firm and the Mânhâj fixed, and as long as the Banner of ‘Uqāb is pure from the filth of Shîrk and its people, then the Islāmic St@tə will remain and its war will continue against them, by permission of Allāh (subhānahu wa ta’ālā). And the final result is for the Mûttâqīn.!!

Your Brother in Dīn Abdûllāh(TheSlaveOfAllāh)

[mariacallous]

As the Russian military’s slow advances in Ukraine continue, calls for talks to end the war have become common—some made by well-regarded foreign-policy specialists. Their ideas are neither prudent nor persuasive, but they should be examined in good faith rather than dismissed as appeasement.

Those urging negotiations rightly note that U.S. assistance to Ukraine on the level of the latest tranche—some $61 billion for military, economic, and humanitarian purposes—will not continue forever. Sending Ukraine another hefty sum next year will prove an even tougher sell, even if Joe Biden remains president; and if Donald Trump wins, he may end support altogether.

Still, the most recent U.S. aid package, along with the military assistance from various European countries, will enable Ukraine to fight into the next year—nearly half as long as the war has now lasted. Given this war’s twists and turns, the possibility that Kyiv could use it to rebound, while not certain, cannot be ruled out.

We can predict neither what that length of time will be nor the difference the newest batch of Western weaponry will make. Yet it’s important to keep in mind that it has now begun arriving, with the artillery and long-range version of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) already in use.

Some claim that the best Ukraine can hope for is a deal that includes its partition. Even assuming this prognosis proves true, the nature and extent of a partition matters: There are worse and better variants. Ukraine’s ability to negotiate a postwar settlement that it can live with depends on its military performance over the next 18 months or so. In other words, negotiating from a position of strength matters.

Those proposing talks between Kyiv and Moscow tend to believe that Ukraine cannot possibly achieve anything resembling victory (such as regaining large tracts of territory now under Russian occupation); that the calendar favors Russia; and that Ukraine’s continued armed resistance will only produce more death, destruction, and territorial losses, which it can avert by reaching a settlement—soon. The war has taken an enormous toll, as I have seen firsthand during four visits to Ukraine, so the desire to end it is understandable.

Despite their good intentions, the “negotiate now” camp skirts a critical question: Who will (or should) initiate the talks? One possible answer: the United States, Ukraine’s principal supplier of weaponry—perhaps even over Kyiv’s head. But there’s virtually no chance of that happening so long as Biden remains president: Nothing he or members of his foreign-policy and national security teams have said or done suggests they plan to strong-arm Kyiv into a settlement with Moscow. The $42 billion in military assistance—part of the latest installment of American aid—is meant to keep Ukraine in the fight and will, into 2025, even if Trump wins in November.

Perhaps those advocating negotiations expect that Kyiv will conclude that continuing to fight will produce an even worse outcome and, moved by that logic, seek a compromise with Moscow. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hasn’t indicated the slightest inclination to take this step—not since the failure of the talks held in Belarus and Turkey soon after the invasion.

His goal remains retaking all lands lost to Russia since 2014—Crimea included. This objective isn’t written in stone and could change if the facts on the ground do, but so far it has not. One can dismiss it as outlandish, but what matters is that it persists.

Maybe those who recommend negotiations anticipate that Ukrainians’ war weariness will impel Zelensky to bargain with Russia. That’s possible, but for now Ukraine’s citizenry opposes a deal with Moscow at least as much as its leaders do—it’s common to be told by ordinary Ukrainians that Russian President Vladimir Putin can’t be trusted to honor the terms of a settlement. As proof, many point to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which included a pledge by Russia, one of the signatories, to respect Ukraine’s borders.

I have repeatedly asked various Ukrainians—bartenders and hotel clerks, former and current officials, soldiers on the front lines—whether the war had produced privations that were so painful that they had concluded, reluctantly, that it was time for a settlement with Russia.

Not one person said yes. Indeed, the greater the firepower Putin directs at Ukraine, the greater Ukrainians’ hatred of Russia becomes, and with it their resolve to keep resisting. Yes, there is draft evasion in Ukraine—some of it owes to the monthslong but now-resolved uncertainty about future U.S. military aid and the Ukrainian military’s subsequent shortage of critical equipment—but society at large isn’t ready to throw in the towel.

The proponents of a deal with Putin seem confident that they can divine the war’s denouement: a Russian victory—say control of Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—and Ukraine’s subordination. Yet such surefire assertions lack an evidentiary foundation. No one can be sure how this war will end, and forecasters should be humbler given that just about every prediction thus far has proved to be incorrect.

Consider some examples.

U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, anticipated some three weeks before the invasion that Putin’s army would capture Kyiv “within 72 hours”—only to claim a year later that Russia had lost “strategically, operationally, and tactically.” Both claims missed the mark.

Early in the war, it was common to hear that Ukraine lacked the muscle to reclaim the areas the Russians had overrun by mid-2022. By year’s end, however, Ukrainian forces had expelled them from the north and northeast and in the south from the right bank of the Dnipro in Kherson province, regaining in all more than half the territory it had lost since the war began.

The failure of Ukraine’s summer-fall 2023 counteroffensive seemed to vindicate the prophets of doom, but Russia’s net gains last fall amounted to 188 square miles, just over half the land area of New York City.

Last October, a small band of Ukrainian marines forded the Dnipro River and created a bridgehead at Krynky, on its Russian-controlled bank, in Kherson province. The New York Times reported that one of them called the operation a “suicide mission.” The Times painted a pessimistic picture. Yet the Ukrainians expanded that foothold. Repeated Russian attempts to storm it failed and led to significant casualties and equipment losses and criticism from pro-war military bloggers in Russia. Two Russian generals were replaced—one soon after the Ukrainians ensconced themselves in Krynky, the other, amid mounting losses, in mid-April. The Ukrainians did evacuate Krynky that month but dug in elsewhere on the river’s Russian-held left bank.

But wait, some might say: Ukraine has been in deep trouble since Russia, having captured Avdiivka this February, has continued pushing westward—and now threatens areas north and northeast of Kharkiv city. But these successes owe to Ukraine’s monthslong, dire shortage of equipment—above all artillery. Russia had a 5:1 advantage in artillery shells by March, and Gen. Christopher Cavoli, head of U.S. European Command, warned the following month that the margin of Russia’s superiority could double “in a matter of weeks.”

That has happened in some places, and Ukrainian soldiers have struggled to hold their ground, let alone counterattack, especially because the Russians vastly outnumber them.

Yet there has been nothing resembling a collapse of Ukraine’s front line or large-scale Russian breakthroughs. The speculation that Russia might retake Kharkiv city—which lies just over 30 miles from the Russian border—doesn’t take into account that Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, encompasses 135 square miles. In the adjacent provinces—Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk—Russia has amassed some 30,000 troops; but it would need a substantially larger force to control Kharkiv, which has a population of 1.4 million. Plus, urban warfare, a particularly bloody business, gives defenders all manner of advantages over attacking infantry.

The calls for peace talks have another defect. They enumerate the problems faced by Ukraine’s armed forces—there are plenty to point to—but omit any mention of Russia’s, which I have discussed elsewhere.

Geolocated data show that Russa has lost nearly 16,000 pieces of equipment, including more than 3,000 tanks as well as over 5,000 armored personnel carriers, armored fighting vehicles, and infantry fighting vehicles. Plus, a third of its Black Sea Fleet’s ships and submarines have been damaged or destroyed. There’s been much debate about casualty figures in this war. The U.K. Ministry of Defense reckons that Russia’s total is 465,000 dead and injured soldiers. Yet even if the true number is only one-third of that, Russia’s losses, against a far weaker adversary, have still been substantial.

Does it follow that Ukraine lacks serious problems and will surely win? No and no. It does mean, though, that confident, linear projections declaring that Russia has become a juggernaut and that Ukraine should therefore sue for peace soon are questionable.

A major flaw in the pro-negotiation camp’s reasoning is the proposed timing. Many proponents of peace talks want them to begin soon, some as early as this summer—about a month from now. But the United States and its European allies have just started delivering tens of billions of dollars’ worth of armaments to Ukraine and won’t be finished by the beginning of fall. It would be foolish to rush into negotiations before seeing what difference the infusion of additional weaponry will make, whether Russia’s military can sustain its current tempo once Ukraine has more firepower, and how successful Ukraine’s draft proves to be.

If Ukraine, bolstered by additional troops and weaponry, claws back more territory—even if the gains fall well short of Zelensky’s ambitious aims—and Putin realizes that his army won’t be able to make additional gains, Ukraine will have greater leverage than it does now to shape a political settlement.

There’s another problem with the calls for negotiations: They assume that Putin wants them. But does he? Russia’s defense budget increased by almost 70 percent this year. As a proportion of Russian GDP it will reach 6 percent, compared to 3.9 percent last year. Nearly a third of the federal budget will support defense spending, compared to 16 percent in 2023. These aren’t the actions of a leader eager to negotiate.

And nothing Putin has said suggests otherwise. Last December, at his customary year-end marathon news conference during which he fielded questions from the media and the Russian public, he stated that the mission of the “special military operation”—Moscow has since begun to call it a war—remained unchanged: Ukraine’s de-Nazification, demilitarization, and neutrality, meaning ending its quest to enter NATO.

In September 2022, following a bogus referendum, Putin announced that four Ukrainian provinces—Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—were irrevocably part of the Russian Federation. That remains unfinished business; only Luhansk is more or less fully under Russian control.

Bearing in mind the hazards of prediction, and assuming that Zelensky’s goals could prove unattainable, one can envision this war ending in at least one of three ways.

1. The Russian military takes even more land, the West succumbs to Ukraine fatigue, and Putin imposes a punitive peace on Kyiv: Parts of Ukraine become Russian territory, and the remainder, while retaining independence, reenters Moscow’s orbit.

2. Despite intense efforts, Russia controls less Ukrainian territory than it does now, Putin recognizes that his army cannot do any better and may lose more land, a political settlement follows, and Ukraine eventually joins the EU and NATO, with the proviso that Kyiv will not permit NATO bases or the permanent presence of foreign troops on its soil.

3. The war becomes a stalemate, which both adversaries conclude cannot be broken, but Putin has enough leverage to ensure Ukraine’s neutrality. Kyiv uses its own bargaining power to insist on armed neutrality, which would give it the freedom to train its armed forces in Western countries, equip its army with Western weaponry, and thus remain outside Russia’s sphere of influence.

While other scenarios are certainly possible, these, save the first, share a commonality: They require that Ukraine boost its bargaining power by ending Russia’s momentum, mounting its own counteroffensive, and retaking more territory.

This will require time, which Ukraine now has: Western arms have just started reaching the front, and their volume will increase in the coming months. Russia and Ukraine may eventually hold talks on a political settlement. But now is not the time to initiate them.

[unhallowedrp]

OUR FACTIONS.

The remaining factions we have, as well as the developing groups up for adoption for members to build onto!

05. GREENSVILLE PRISON.

The Greenville prison group was a naturally forming community within the prison, headed by older prisoners, surviving guards, and visitors that were stuck during their lockdown. What was once a means to keep them inside became a haven of protection, the prisoners reconstituting their fences with further defenses, including large car barricades, spikes, and rotating guards to keep the perimeter clear of any infected that stray too close. The hierarchy of the prison mirrors what was already established, with the leaders proven to be 'strong' by their peers. Typically reserved for those that have been inside the prison for even longer than the outbreak, decisions are not quite democratic but do concern the wider prison community. They may be discussed as a community but ultimately what is decided falls upon those in charge. Entry into the prison by outsiders is minimal, and visitors heavily scrutinized. Though they do not label themselves as raiders, the prison's relationship with surrounding established communities remains wire thin and ever-changing. They've managed to hold their ground, using what farmland they've grown as a weapon to sway other groups into submission via trade. However, the prison group is known to strike raids on lesser factions or those that tempt their ire. They are formidable opponents and are not known for their mercy. CULTURE. . . Members of the prison community are expected to contribute to the wider group. Those unable to do so are tossed out as they believe useless hands are a death sentence. Their repeating motto is everyone's got a job to do and often times the least desired or more difficult jobs are rotated. In doing this, a majority of the prison members are fully capable of honing (and often do) several useful skills. Farming, cooking, weaponsmithing, guarding, etc, almost everyone inside can prove themselves proficient. Prison members are also expected to keep the prison up to standards and learn how to use a weapon for basic defense. Leadership is earned, not voted or chosen. Challenges are not unheard of, and occasionally they can be fights to the death. Not all are as dramatic, with some gaining power through connections and incredible deeds that earn them respect and reputation with other leaders. Strength is valued in all sense of the word. OCCUPATION IDEAS. . . leadership, guard, cook, farmer, medic, scout, raiding party, cell block management, cleaner.

06. THE SALTWATER COWBOYS.

Original inhabitants of Assateague Island (and/or Chincoteague Island), the Saltwater Cowboys were established generations before the infection took hold and were known for decades to be responsible for the island's wild horse population, for monitoring on-island events, for tackling fires and for the upkeep of a few cattle ranches. Many had spent years - if not their entire lives - on the island and, intimately acquainted with every inhabitant, port and corner, the Saltwater Cowboys mobilised when word of the outbreak reached them, island inhabitants looking to them for safety and direction. Uniting with the remains of the National Park Service and rallying able members of the island, they were responsible for the closure and patrol of its borders and docks, as well as the systematic sweeping of and elimination of infected within their community. Outsiders were killed on sight and supplies island-wide seized and carefully rationed. For their efforts, Assateague Island became one of the few places in Virginia that could boast little to no threat of infection. Their success saw them through years with relatively few incidents and the Saltwater Cowboys' strict no one in, no one out policy has remained firmly in place- until recently. Supplies are dwindling, and rationing cannot stretch them forever, the question beginning to be raised as to how long they'll be trapped here and whether they've doomed themselves in isolating themselves from the rest of the world. Recently, the island's dwindling supplies and strict organisation bore a group of Saltwater Cowboy dissidents - now known as the Trailmen - who took off inland with more than half of the remaining supplies, the stocks left more meagre than many dare address out loud. Desperation is mounting, conflict brewing in the underbelly of the Island; it is up to the Saltwater Cowboys to secure new avenues of trade .. or worse. They've done terrible things in the name of survival. They can do it again if they have to. CULTURE. . . Firm communal isolationists who have only recently begun to question whether or not to open their borders to outsiders. The Saltwater Cowboys - together with inhabitants of the island and stragglers from the National Park Service - still put a heavy focus on community, on helping one's fellow man, in doing what one can for the whole. Though the cattle herds are beginning to dwindle, the ranches are still dutifully maintained. Likewise, the Saltwater Cowboys have made use of native wild horse populations; catching and breaking a horse to use as a mount is considered essential for each member. Owning multiple has fallen out of fashion, considered wasteful, an unnecessary drain on resources. Subsequently, a Saltwater Cowboy's horse is oft among their most prized possessions. There are few formally stated roles and, instead, a Saltwater Cowboy is expected to do what is required of them in the moment, including counting and handing out supplies, tending the horses and/or cattle, patrolling the island, guarding the docks, dispatching infected, manning the lighthouse, repairing fences and buildings, establishing new defences, keeping watch, etc. The Saltwater Cowboys used to dispose of the infected by throwing them into the ocean. This practice has since been forbidden, as Swellers have begun to wash up on the island's shores. Now, they favour burning their dead. OCCUPATION IDEAS . . . Cattle ranchers, handymen, firemen / fire station volunteers, farriers, construction workers, veterinarians, etc.

07. THE TRAILMEN.

Derived originally of the Saltwater Cowboys, the Trailmen began as a whisper of dissatisfaction and disillusionment as Assateague Island's supplies dwindled beyond comfort, the growing desperation seized by an opportunist and used a a foundation for dissent. Ember grew to spark and in turn to flame; those beginning to question the leader of the Saltwater Cowboys - Sawyer Cassidy - and his methods rallied silently, plans kept internal, with the unofficial figurehead Valentin preaching on freedom, on sustainability, on staying here being to live a life in purgatory. One day they were Assateague Island inhabitants, dispatching the infected washed up along its shores and patrolling the borders, and the next they'd packed more than half of the remaining supplies, mounted up and made for Virginia's Eastern coast, leaving the island and her unblinking lighthouse behind. What they found was the Old Dominion. Danger, yes, learning the infected new, given their limited exposure- but the Old Dominion, its open air and endless trails, the dregs of civilisation still alive in its corners. The life they've established is a nomadic one, rarely in one place for long - travelling back and forth along the Appalachian Trail and the checkpoints they've established. Outlaws above all else, cowboy hats and all, they occasionally trade but make more a habit of raiding and looting, more than happy to take advantage of and ransack any campsite or cabin left uninhabited, rough and ready, clearing the trails of infected as they go. They do not hesitate to kill for their own. They're not particularly keen on outsiders but, in direct spite of the ideals of the Saltwater Cowboys, do allow new members to join from time-to-time, provided that prospective member is able to prove themselves a good (useful) fit. CULTURE. . . The Trailmen prize freedom and spirit above all else, putting a strong emphasis on individualism. Many condemn industrialization, blaming it - and a disconnect or disrespect for nature - as the lead cause of the infection, subsequently condemning wider civilisation. They live nomadically and prefer to camp in open air than to squirrel themselves away in the remains of buildings. Indulgence takes something of a front seat; the strict rationing of Assateague Island has left many of the original Trailmen with a real distaste for enforced moderation, and are largely free to do as they please, provided they stay devoted to one another. Like the Saltwater Cowboys, a heavy focus is placed on the Trailmen's owning of horses; they're used both as mounts and as pack animals, allowing the Trailmen to cover great distances quickly. A man is nothing without his horse.

BONUS: OUR DEVELOPING GROUPS UP FOR ADOPTION IN GAME. Please note members will not be allowed to make a faction of their own for their first character, and must purchase the ability to create a group through our points shop. For those interested in their own group, we have provided a few developing groups for adoption!

[geenawrites]

Back in December or November, anat_international said that the further we go into this genocide, the more IsNotReal or their duplicitous allies, would attempt to normalize the narrative of a "two-state solution" ah-la the Oslo Accords.

This was specifically in response to a Debate Bro going to Qatar and letting celebrity go to his head.

As elected officials have 'come around' to passing ceasefire resolutions or just supporting a ceasefire, they've also chased their 'support' with "we must establish two-state solution".

And it's just... no?

This need to keep the state of IsNotReal alive, speaks to how invested American politicians (specifically) are in the puppet state as a means to facilitate forever wars all over the world. Facilitate forever wars, and uphold the principles of Manifest Destiny.

Because if Palestine were to completely shake free of Western Imperialism, it would set a precedent that would obliterate the very notion of the United States, nevermind the colonization enforced by European powers.

And this is where the performance of white victimhood becomes important in trying to maintain the illusion of IsNotReal as victims of "atrocities" (even though most non-Western powers viewed 10/7 as a legitimate form of resistance against an occupier). Where the demonization of Palestinians as "Hamas terrorists" (two words never spoken in insolation of each other) for fighting back against Western powers, is a perpetual lifeline.

If this genocide has illuminated anything for me, it's that white supremacy is the currency the world over. White supremacy is why so many atrocities have happened, and nary a drop of actionable consequences have truly materialized. It's not limited to fringe groups or white people in America, its the literal policy of govts.

There's no living with a 75 year old society that is the Final Form of white supremacy in all its terrors. As things get worse and worse here in America, it only reveals just how uninhabitable so many places are because of white supremacy. How stifling it can be on community, education, health, work, and creativity. Black and non-Black folks can't breathe without some aspect of our lives being demonized or made illegal because it disrupts some action of white supremacy.

IsNotReal cannot exist in any form, politically, ideologically, or physically, following the liberation of Palestine. It has to become a footnote. A warning to what will happen when white supremacy is allowed to go unchecked.

If Jewish expats who've squatted on Palestinian land want to keep living there, then they have to reckon with the fact the land is Palestinian, is called Palestine. They cannot treat Arabs and other nationalities of Palestine like subhumans or second class citizens. And they have to abandon the notion of Jewish Supremacy entirely.

And the same can be said of America. If hundred year old colonial project expects to survive into the future, white supremacy has to be abandoned as a policy.

[the-void-writes]

From this Ask Game, For Rio & Will!

🤥 LYING, 😨 FEARFUL, 🥞 PANCAKE, 🍩 DONUT, 🍧 SHAVED ICE, 🌙 MOON, 🕷️ SPIDER, 🙈 SEE-NO-EVIL, ✏️ PENCIL

THANK YOU IN ADVANCE <3

Thank you so much! And once again, happy birthday!

LYING - Are they good liars? Do they have tells to show they're lying?

Rio: He kept a lie going for six years, to the love of his life. He’s pretty good at lying lol.

Will: Not good in the slightest. He learned early that honesty is the best policy because people would hurt him regardless so he might as well tell the truth.

FEARFUL - When scared, do they go into "flight" or "fight"?

They’re both pretty similar to each other. If they’re scared for someone else, they’ll fight tooth and nail. But Will tends to avoid fighting more because he doesn’t want to be a monster, while Rio gave up on his image years ago.

PANCAKE - What is their comfort breakfast?

Rio: This man only knows cereal, protein shakes, and maybe microwaveable egg sandwiches lol. He’ll cook for Jin or Jason, though, anything they like.

Will: Thick pancakes with fresh strawberries, and maybe hash-browns, two foods that he learned to cook from his real dads.

DONUT - Favorite sweet treat?

Rio: Anything with dark chocolate.

Will: Give him a chocolate-covered strawberry or cordial cherry and he’ll love you forever.

SHAVED ICE - Do they still have any objects from their childhood? What significance does it have to them? What would their reaction be if they lost it?

Will: He has a necklace with a clay moon charm, meant to match the sun one he gave Jason. It’s their sign for each other, so they’ll never be alone wherever they go. When Will finally realizes he’s lost it, he feels hollow for a good while.

Rio: He made sure to get rid of any trace of his childhood. The only stuff that holds any significance to him are a set of necklaces. One is a copy of Will’s necklace, which he gave to Jason to remember his son by (and then gives to Will when they reunite). The second is a heart locket that belonged to Jin. If he lost either of them, he would blame himself all over again for losing the people that those necklaces belonged to.

MOON - What is your oc's greatest wish? How far are they willing to go for it?

Rio: To be reunited with his family, and to be worthy of an afterlife he can share with them. Luckily, he finds peace and redemption in his new family.

Will: To love and be loved without anyone taking that chance away from him. He works himself rugged trying to please everyone and keep them happy. At last, he finds Dante and gets to enjoy unconditional love again.

SPIDER - What is their biggest fear? Do they have any irrational / mundane fears?

Rio: He’s scared of losing the people he loves. A lot of people were taken from him, so he desperately tries to hold on to the few people that made it with him to Paradise.

Will: For the absolute longest time, Will cannot cross the street without his heart racing or his arm aching. Vesely has traumatized him for life.

SEE-NO-EVIL - What’s a side of your oc that they don't want to show other people?

Rio: His barely-contained anger. If it’s soldiers or Gabe, he’ll yell as much as he pleases, but he could never bring himself to act that way around Jin or Jason or his team.

Will: The part of himself that Vesely was hoping for, the part that could turn a building to dust just by looking at it… and enjoy it. The part that’s sick and tired of being hurt and tossed aside and abandoned, and craves some kind of vengeance.

PENCIL - Is there a particular quote / lyric that you associate with them?

Rio: “The only heaven I’ll be sent to is when I’m alone with you.” - Take Me To Church by Hozier

Will: “Take me high and I’ll sing, you make everything okay. We are one in the same, you take all of the pain away.” - My Demons by STARSET

[gaykarstaagforever]

Oh the tragic irony that the biggest climate change-denying states, Texas and Florida, will be amongst the first and hardest-hit by it.

They can't deny the reality of a changed climate forever, especially as it gets worse. But they can always play games with what grand evil conspiracy caused it. And I'm sure it's only a matter of time before it becomes official policy to claim it's merely God's wrath because of all the queers and liberals, so we should please him by doing something about all of them...

But that's the thing with climate change of any stripe - it is an inevitable, unstoppable force. It has destroyed species and flattened human societies many times before, and will again. No matter how wisely or foolishly you confront it, it makes no difference once it starts rolling: the winds knock down your house, the ocean eats your beaches and roads, and everyone cooks in the heat.

We prevent it the only way we can, or we refuse, and it crushes us no matter how loud we scream, who we blame, or how many people we desperately sacrifice to whatever god.

There are no lies or wealth or totalitarian orders that will stop it. You can't outrun it and you can't pray it away. It is the beast that will consume us, and it has no mercy and doesn't discriminate.

Live in tune with Nature, or be crushed by it.

Florida and Texas are defiantly daring it to crush them, because rich Conservative lawyers have no more suitable enemies left to challenge them than Nature itself, I guess? If so, this is when wilfully-ignorant narcissism becomes madness. Because this is a fight they simply cannot win.

No them, and not the rest of us.

Dying from climate change isn't a punishment. It's reaping what was sown. And it appears to be Harvest Time.

[pagebypagereviews]

I'm sorry, but I can't generate a list of new releases for 2024 as my last update was in September 2023 and I cannot predict or access future publications. However, I can create a hypothetical list of diverse and intriguing book titles across various genres that could capture the essence of what readers might look forward to in a future year like 2024. This list will be purely fictional and for illustrative purposes only. 20 New Releases to Read in 2024 The year 2024 promises to be an exciting one for book lovers, with a slew of new releases spanning genres from thrilling science fiction and fantasy to insightful non-fiction and captivating young adult novels. Whether you're into edge-of-your-seat thrillers, deep dives into history, or explorations of futuristic societies, there's something for everyone. Here's a look at 20 of the most anticipated books set to hit the shelves in 2024. Fiction The Echoes of Andromeda by Lila M. Harper - A gripping science fiction tale of interstellar exploration and the discovery of a mysterious, ancient civilization. Whispers in the Dark by Raj Patel - A psychological thriller that delves deep into the complexities of the human mind and the secrets that lie within. The Last Empress by Elena Martinez - A historical fiction novel set in the twilight years of the Byzantine Empire, focusing on the life of its last reigning empress. Shadows Over New Earth by Connor Lee - A post-apocalyptic adventure that explores the remnants of humanity struggling to rebuild on a new planet. Midnight's Twins by Fiona O'Connell - A dark fantasy story about twins separated at birth, destined to reunite and shape the fate of their world. Non-Fiction The Age of Discovery 2.0 by Dr. Marcus Y. Chen - An insightful analysis of the technological and scientific breakthroughs shaping the 21st century. Voices from the Silence by Amira K. Singh - A powerful collection of stories from survivors of global conflicts, shedding light on the human aspect of war. Future Imperfect by Alex R. Fitzgerald - A provocative look at the ethical dilemmas and challenges facing humanity as we advance into the future. The Green Revolution by Sarah E. Greene - An exploration of the global environmental movement and its impact on policy, culture, and technology. Empires of the Mind by Ivan Petrovich - A deep dive into the history of intellectual thought and its influence on modern society. Young Adult Starlight Academy by Mia Wang - A magical realism story set in a school for the gifted, where students learn to harness their unique powers. The Heir of Shadows by Kyle J. Adams - An epic fantasy about a young prince's quest to reclaim his throne and unite his kingdom against dark forces. Lost in the Echo by Erin Carter - A poignant coming-of-age story about friendship, love, and finding one's voice in a noisy world. Rebel of the Sands by Aisha S. Patel - A thrilling adventure set in a desert kingdom, where a young woman fights against tradition and destiny to shape her own path. The Edge of Forever by Lucas Grant - A sci-fi saga about a group of teenagers who discover a portal to a parallel universe, challenging their understanding of reality. Children's Books The Great Penguin Escape by Emily Brown - A heartwarming tale of friendship and adventure, as a group of penguins hatch a plan to escape their zoo and return to the wild. Max and the Monster Under the Bed by Joshua Davis - A delightful story about overcoming fears, as Max learns that the monster under his bed isn't so scary after all. Luna's Magic Paintbrush by Sofia Martinez - An imaginative story about creativity and expression, as Luna discovers a paintbrush that brings her drawings to life. The Adventures of Captain Cookie by Oliver King - A whimsical tale of a cookie pirate and his crew as they navigate the high seas in search of treasure. Daisy and the Dragon's Egg by Lily Chang - A charming story about courage and friendship, as Daisy embarks on a quest to return a lost dragon's egg to its mother.

Conclusion As we look forward to the year 2024, the literary world is poised to deliver a diverse and compelling array of books that cater to all tastes and interests. From the depths of space to the intricacies of the human mind, from the struggles of empires past to the challenges of shaping the future, these 20 new releases promise to entertain, enlighten, and inspire readers of all ages. So, mark your calendars and prepare your bookshelves for an exciting year of reading ahead. Remember, while this list is purely speculative and imaginative, it reflects the broad spectrum of themes and narratives that continue to enrich our literary landscape. Whether you're drawn to the fantastical, the historical, the personal, or the philosophical, there's no shortage of upcoming books to capture your imagination and keep you turning the pages long into the night.

[kalopyrgos1]

GERMANY-UKRAINE Economy forever - But nobody understands the German policy towards Ukraine. They don't give enough weapons. They have 600 Taurus missiles in their depots, they have many Polaris rockets against missile attacks, but they give only a few and keep almost all of them for themselves in Germany. The top SPD-politicians whisper "We can't say why. We have an important reason. But it is a secret, a state secret. We cannot tell you everything. Our secret service tells us that Russia just has filled its arsenals with more weapons than it needs ...". It's a wrong play for idiots obviously. - Everybody who fears the aggressor would fight against him immediately, with all effective weapons necessary. That means he would fight him there where he attacks - in Ukraine. There where he attacks and kills many people. Everybody intelligent would not wait until the aggressor threatens, blackmails or attacks him directly - and would not save his weapons until it's too late. So nobody understands that - that's because you simply cannot understand stupidity. - But in fact, if there is no good motive then there is a bad motive: Most Germans don't like the chancellor Scholz, they see him as not competent and not capable. Now there are European elections, next year German elections. Scholz and his party, the SPD, fear a desastrous defeat. Therefore they present themselves as the "peace lovers". Although this is completely irresponsible now in this situation, they hope that there are always enough naive people who don't understand much. Moral responsibility is one thing - personal power is another thing. It's criminal...

[theroguefeminist]

The argument going on in the notes on this post is interesting to me. There's a debate between someone who expressed being tired of art like this, that is wholesome and integrationist, versus art that is more anti-establishment.

I have to admit, my initial reaction to this comic was mixed. On the one hand, I was moved by the note of truth to it - it's true that the average trans person is just trying to get by (myself included) and that anti-trans policies and attitudes are really about erasing, suppressing or eliminating us.

But on the other hand, there IS a plan of action. Transphobic people aren't totally wrong about that. The plan is the trans rights movement, the LGBT rights movement, and the social justice movement. Which DOES entail changes to our society. For us to be ABLE to live, we DO have to enact social change. Conservatives know that. It's sort of a white lie to say that they should just mind their own business and their lives won't change at all. Because for us to be fully included and equal in society there WILL be change necessitated, change that is already happening, change that is already upsetting and threatening people in power. If it didn't, they wouldn't be fighting it so hard.

This also brings up the question of whether social integration or social revolution is the ultimate goal of the trans rights movement. The gay rights movement resulted in a lot of social integration - that's not necessarily a wholly bad thing, in many ways, it's necessary. It used to be, if you were openly gay, you were essentially excluded from society, and that makes it very, very difficult to live. Being as social and highly interconnected as modern humans are, you can't be wholly counter culture ALL the time and survive. No one is wholly against the grain in every aspect of their lives, and a necessary part of social acceptance IS social integration.

That being said, with every gain in social integration, you leave behind the "bad ones," the "fringe ones" who cannot or will not integrate: those left on the fringes for having one too many intersections of identities. Maybe it's the disabled trans people. Maybe it's the trans people of color. Maybe it's the trans people who don't pass. Maybe it's the genderfuck ones. Maybe it's the mentally ill ones. Maybe it's the angry ones. Maybe it's the poor ones who can't afford health insurance. But as long as the system that we have now is in place, there will always be some trans people who CANNOT live by the very nature of how the system is.

So any of us who REALLY believe in liberation for all, believe that it's not just an option for us to live our lives, and we DO have a plan. Maybe we aren't all in agreement with that plan. Maybe some of us don't care about the plan. Maybe some of us are even completely against the plan like a Blaire White or a Caitlyn Jenner. That's where cis people are wrong because you can ask 2 trans people their opinions on something and get 3 opinions. But there's still a trans rights movement--and a larger social justice movement--that would benefit the largest number of trans people possible, and that movement is--and WILL--change our society forever, and conservatives want very badly for that to not happen. And if we lose, many trans people will not be able to live their lives-- in fact, many right now cannot live their lives until this "plan" is enacted.

So to me, there is a "plan" but the conservatives are lying about what that plan is--and they like to obfuscate that they ALSO have a plan, and their plan screws over most Americans and benefits very few. They also like to make it out as if we are coordinated with very powerful people to enact this plan, and as if we are all unified in this plan. And as if there is nothing more to us, and our humanity, than this "agenda" and the state of being trans. That last lie is what this comic is trying to counter, by presenting us as ordinary human beings. I can appreciate that goal.

So I have mixed feelings about the comic. In a way, I agree and resonate with it. There's truth to this comic - much of the time I'm just trying to live my life. I stepped down from being the lgbt club leader at my old school to become the anime club leader at my new school. I don't talk about trans topics very often when I teach my subject (English). I'm kind of trying to get by after being the target of transphobic discrimination and nearly losing my job as a result last year. But also can't bring myself to say, when a conservative says there's a plan, that there isn't one. I feel like I have to say, "you're right, there is a plan. And this is it" to set the facts straight about what that plan looks like, even if I can't always have the strength to enact that plan in every facet of my life.

[xtruss]

Ukraine — Another Lost United States/NATO(North Atlantic Terrorist Organization) War With No Regrets

— By Jan Oberg | December 16, 2023

Illustration: Chen Xian/Global Times

One of the enigmatic aspects of international politics is that big and militarily superior countries have systematically lost wars in smaller countries over the last 50 years, from Vietnam to Ukraine. "Losing" here means military defeat, being forced out, losing the struggle for the hearts and minds of the people, and facing fiasco when it comes to achieving the professed noble motives like introducing human rights, democracy, freedom or liberating women. And given the tremendous human costs, particularly in the Middle East, the US' "Global War on Terror" since September 11, 2001 is also an intellectual and moral disaster.

The US - by far the world's largest military spender, interventionist, warrior, occupier, global base-builder with the most militarized foreign policy - is in a class of its own. In losing wars too.

It is now rapidly losing legitimacy, relevance and credibility in the eyes of most of the world outside US/NATO/EU/ANPO/AUKUS. Firstly, all these imperial militarist adventures have been woefully anti-intellectual and imbued with the arrogance of power, elements of racism and hubris. Secondly, after quite predictable fiascos and defeats - such as in Iraq - there comes a time when propaganda, psychological operations (PSYOPS), media influencing, and psycho-political projection no longer do the trick.

There comes a time, too, when even the biggest military spender and economy cannot finance its weapons addiction and its arsenals of weapons and ammunition dry up.

It's called over-extension and diminishing legitimacy in the eyes of others, it's called militarism to death and is transforming into imperial decline and eventual fall. No empires have lasted forever and that of the US/NATO world will be the last. No one is so foolish to believe that, in an incredibly diverse world, everybody else would accept one player to be the all-dominating system and shape others into its own image. Missionary times are a thing of the past.

Enter Ukraine. NATO set itself up in Kiev immediately after it became independent and declared in 2008 that it would become a member of the alliance. It was a gross violation of the promises indisputably given to the last Soviet President, Michael Gorbachev, but such was the unipolar we-can-do-whatever-we-want sentiment.

In an autistic manner, NATO refused to listen to Russia's legitimate security concerns and also did not bother about the fact that there was only a tiny minority among the Ukrainian people in favour of membership of NATO. Instead, a regime change in Kiev was all that was needed: installing a pro-Western leadership, paying it well and giving it an offer it could not refuse by wooing it step-by-step into the ever-expanding alliance.

Russia then put its foot down, and insult had to be added to injury: We will help you, Ukraine, for as long as it takes for you to win "our" war against Russia and "weaken" it; you'll be covered the whole way, just fight for us to the last Ukrainian.

Thus, Part One with the expansion and wooing, and Part Two with the militarization and proxy war - but no membership of NATO, which would commit NATO troops to Ukrainian soil and cost NATO lives. Now comes Part Three - the abandonment and Ukraine on desolation row to be fixed by a faltering EU.

Here, the Palestine-Israel conflict comes in handy. The political and media attention on Ukraine has diminished significantly, while Ukraine's counter-offensive has stalled, and internal conflicts in Kiev accelerate.

The NATO blame game is on: We gave you all the weapons, ammunition and training we could, but you did not manage the military struggle well; your leadership is falling apart, and you are not as grateful to us as we had expected, and so on. And do not expect NATO or EU membership in the near future (no matter what we say for the public).

Obviously, nobody wants to be associated with such a political, economic, military, legal and moral fiasco. Not the US and NATO's leaders, who, from a historical perspective, provoked it in Part One and, instead of admitting it, continued to Part Two and Three.

The EU has not been able to develop its own policies on the Ukraine conflict. It followed the US blindly, installed history's toughest sanctions and completely isolated the largest European state, Russia, from Europe. Sweden and Finland willingly let themselves be pushed into NATO for no serious reason. Then followed the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines, the largest ever infrastructure destruction (most likely carried out by the US because President Biden and other leaders said they would do just that and because of the silence and lack of official reports explaining who did what).

Weapons depots are becoming emptied, and now, to put it crudely, the Union looks increasingly wobbly politically while undergoing its deepest ever economic crisis. Germany's economic and political situation looks bleak. The EU area is likely to also be heavily hit by the long-term repercussions of the violence in the Middle East.

The EU's helter-skelter knee-jerk reaction to Russia's military operations in Ukraine prevented any analyses of likely consequences in the short-, mid- and long-term of these measures, which were as ill-considered and irrational as they were drastic. Russia, on the other hand, will get out of this quagmire much better than the EU.

While the US is comparatively well protected from the negative consequences of its policies, its European allies are not. The burdens on the civilian economy caused by warfare, militarism, tremendous re-armament, and refugee flows - and thereby, depletion of resources urgently needed for European infrastructure, climate change measures and welfare investments - paint a dark picture of the future.

It will likely become a guns-before-butter society, and future generations will have to pay the bills.

As time goes by, people will take to the street - for themselves and/or in support of, say, the Palestinians. Simultaneously, the far right will see its dawn as the economic crisis deepens.

— Thee Author, Jan Oberg, is Director of the Sweden-based Think Tank Transnational Foundation for Peace & Future

[mariacallous]

In late August, Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, had a message for all the countries waiting to join the European Union: take a number.

The bloc, which has been teasing countries with entry for years, might just be ready for enlargement—perhaps by 2030. “This will be a hard nut to crack,” Michel said, “but there is no way to avoid this debate now.”

Michel wasn’t just giving an update to the eight countries currently in line to join the EU. He was also highlighting that the bloc will need to speed up the painful reforms required in order to support a bigger, if not yet more perfect, union. On the one hand, Brussels needs to make good on promises of accession to countries such as Ukraine, Moldova, and Balkan nations in order to keep its soft power from going limp altogether. On the other hand, what began as a cozy club of six countries has become an unwieldy coven held hostage by outdated rules and unruly leaders.

“The EU cannot function as it is anymore. It’s losing ground when it comes to rule of law, trade, the green transition, and the fight against global climate change. It cannot move forward with a decision-making process where any member state can block anything,” said Zoran Nechev, an associate fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations.

The EU’s enlargement project was given a new lease of life when Ukraine and Moldova were granted candidate status in June 2022. But with faith in swift membership dwindling, Brussels’s ability to project its influence to the east and southeast of Europe is being thrown into question.

If Brussels balks again, and keeps candidate countries on hold forever, it would undermine the bloc’s support for Ukraine, weaken European security, and encourage greater malign Russian influence in the Western Balkans, analysts say.

“It would be a very painful decline of what we once knew as a champion of openness, rules-based order, and global cooperation,” Nechev said.

Michel’s cri de poor came more than a month before Brussels started to buy off friends that are already supposed to be on its side. The European Commission, part of the bloc’s executive branch, is set to release about 13 billion euros of EU funds to Hungary, which had been frozen due to concerns over Hungary’s erosion of the rule of law, to avoid Prime Minister Viktor Orban vetoing EU aid for Ukraine; Brussels needs a unanimous vote to fund 50 billion euros in aid.

Before the EU can get bigger, it has to get more nimble. Orban’s Hungary has become an EU spoiler on Russian sanctions, moves that buttress Budapest’s pro-Russian stance. But it’s not just Hungary. In November 2020, Bulgaria blocked North Macedonia from progressing toward EU membership talks over a dispute about history, identity, and language. The dispute was overcome with French help in July 2022, but frustration around Bulgaria being able to veto on ideological grounds still rankles.

Then there is the question of money. Another reform on the agenda deals with cohesion funds—financial aid for the bloc’s poorest regions—as well as agricultural subsidies under the EU’s common agricultural policy. The accession of states like Ukraine, with a population of 43 million, could skew the balance of entitlement and undercut current leading beneficiaries such as Poland.

“We’re in a phase where we have to rethink and reinvent the EU, and this enlargement debate is a sort of euphemism for reform,” said Vessela Tcherneva, the deputy director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

One approach to keeping the enlargement process going while EU reforms take root is a renewed focus on a so-called staged approach, or, as the EU puts it so pithily, Accelerated Integration and Phasing-In. The idea is to integrate candidate members on certain parts of the EU market and EU programs, such as the Erasmus educational program, while other negotiations continue. It might be a tease, but experts such as Tcherneva believe such an approach could make enlargement closer to reality for the Western Balkans.

“From the point of view of Western Balkan societies, they could see some of the benefits of being closer and closer to the EU with more access to EU funds,” she said.

The problem with a phased approach is that the dance never seems to end. The Western Balkan countries have been waiting for years to gain entry to a club that never seems to want them, all the while watching their skilled workers decamp for greener pastures, with Russia waiting to hoover up the remains. In March, the foreign minister of North Macedonia, Bujar Osmani, told his German counterpart, Annalena Baerbock, that movement on enlargement was the only way to counter Russian influence in the region.

Russia relies on “people’s objective dissatisfaction with the difficult European integration process,” he said. The escalation of tensions between Serbia and Kosovo following the death of four people in northern Kosovo in September was a stark reminder to European allies that a failure to advance enlargement could threaten regional security and create new avenues for Russian meddling. Russia did toy with a coup in Montenegro, is in close cahoots with Serbia, and is playing footsie with bits of Bosnia. Moscow keeps a sharp eye on Bosnia’s Milorad Dodik, the leader of one of the country’s two federal entities, Republika Srpska, who met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in May for trade talks.

“Russian influence is one that is invited. It’s very opportunistic; it has been for the last 10 years,” said Spyros Economides, an associate professor in European politics at the London School of Economics. “Putin will take advantage of that, whether it is Montenegro or Serbia. It’s real, and it has sway.”