#Winds of winter speculation

[buildoblivion]

hey what if the over burdened teenagers were happy and in love actually

[angrycommiedyke]

Speculations on Jon and Arya : "The woman is important too"

It’s no secret that Jon Snow has always wanted to be a Stark, and has a strong connection to this house and to the North, with his looks, his direwolf and warging ability, among other things.

“Lord Eddard Stark is my father,” Jon admitted stiffly. Lannister studied his face. “Yes,“ he said. “I can see it. You have more of the north in you than your brothers.“ “Half brothers,“ Jon corrected. He was pleased by the dwarf's comment, but he tried not to let it show. [Jon - AGOT]

Now when Jon is going to learn the truth about his parentage, it’s going to be a mess in his head and he will obviously need time to process. It will cause multiple problems but I just want to focus on one in particular : his identity as a Stark. 

The male lineage tends to be more important, so wherever R+L marriage was valid or not, even if Jon remains a bastard, he won’t be Ned Stark’s bastard but Rhaegar’s. He may then not feel entitled - or less -  to be King in the North (if he is as in the show), or just feel like he doesn't really belong in the North/Winterfell due to his Targaryen father.

And that’s when Arya comes into play. To remind him that “the woman is important too”. 

"The Lannisters are proud," Jon observed. "You'd think the royal sigil would be sufficient, but no. He makes his mother's House equal in honor to the king's." "The woman is important too!" Arya protested. Jon chuckled. "Perhaps you should do the same thing, little sister. Wed Tully to Stark in your arms." [Arya - AGOT]

So I like to imagine that Arya will be there to remind him that his northern face, which he was proud of when Tyrion mentioned it, isn’t due to his father but his mother. That the sigil he wanted to wear but was never allowed to, is in fact his mother’s. 

"Girls get the arms but not the swords. Bastards get the swords but not the arms. I did not make the rules, little sister." [Arya - AGOT]

And because the woman is important, he’s no less of a Stark or a northerner. Perphaps Arya will be there to tell him directly or he'll just remember her words.

PS : I also hc that when Jon will reveal to Arya the truth about his real parents, she’s gonna tell him these exact words : “You’re still my brother”. 🥹 And i'm still mad we didn't see the reactions on the show, but let's not start on that

[windriverdelta]

The two towers (prophecies) of ASOIAF, with a consideration about arbitrary prophecy interpretations

From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. . . . mother of dragons, slayer of lies 

This is the third of the HOTU "slayer of lies" prophecies, and the least clear one. Often, people think it refers to the stone dragons Melisandre wants to awake, Jon Snow's parentage or Jon Connington's greyscale.

Here's the problem with interpreting the smokeless Tower of Joy, the volcano Dragonstone or the castles Winterfell or Griffin's Roost as a "smoking tower": If Daenerys is seeing a non-smoking tower as smoking, or calling a castle a tower, how can we trust any of her narration? If a castle is a tower, then is the sword actually a torch? The crowd just one person? How can anyone discern a meaning in something this ambiguous? This wouldn't be a prophecy anymore, but meaningless drivel. Especially since the first "lie" - Stannis as Azor Ahai - is discussed as such in-story by Jon Snow, Maester Aemon and Melisandre, and is actually quite straightforward, making it improbable that the "smoking tower" is a castle or a mountain. (There are additional problems with these interpretations)

Euron Greyjoy is an oft-cited candidate, and he actually fits most requirements. As we see from the Aeron TWOW chapter and Samwell's last AFFC chapter (the sigil on the sunken ship is Euron's), he is preparing to attack Oldtown, which features a prominent tower with a beacon fire (AFFC prologue), the Hightower. Also, in AFFC Euron says that as a boy he dreamed he could fly (c.f Bran's coma-dreams) and that "Perhaps we can fly. All of us. How will we ever know unless we leap from some tall tower?" - perhaps he leaps/takes wing from the Hightower? Aeron TWOW has visions in which Euron is "no longer human" and wearing something called "scale armour" - stone beast. And he is seeking Daenerys('s dragons) so he has a connection to her. The "breathing shadow fire" part however is problematic; Shade of the Evening isn't a smoke and the Horn of Joramun "waking giants from the earth" according to TWOIAF refers to earthquakes not any kind of fire. Dust clouds from collapsing buildings as "shadow fire" is far-fetched.

Then the towers by the sea, crumbling as the dark tide came sweeping over them, rising from the depths.

"If it comes, that attack will be no more than a diversion. I saw towers by the sea, submerged beneath a black and bloody tide. That is where the heaviest blow will fall."

"Eastwatch?"

Was it? Melisandre had seen Eastwatch-by-the-Sea with King Stannis. That was where His Grace left Queen Selyse and their daughter Shireen when he assembled his knights for the march to Castle Black. The towers in her fire had been different, but that was oft the way with visions. "Yes. Eastwatch, my lord."

This is from Melisandre's POV chapter. Most interpretations of this vision disagree with her that the "towers by the sea" is Eastwatch, given her habit of confusing similar-looking things - e.g Alys Karstark for Arya, Renly's armour for Renly. Moreover, the black and bloody tide is associated with prophecies and visions involving the Ironborn - Moqorro sees an one-eyed kraken (Euron Greyjoy) on a sea of blood, Aeron sees Ironborn ships burning on a boiling blood-red sea and Jojen Reed's green dreams of Winterfell being submerged by a tide. That has nothing to do with the Wall.

So, many people read this vision as referring to Euron and his aforementioned attack on Oldtown. Euron has moved on from the Iron Islands, so Pyke and Ten Towers aren't plausible candidates. Nothing places Ironborn currently at Harrenhal, never mind that numerous characters refer to its towers having a characteristic melted appearance that Melisandre presumably would have remarked upon. The Shields and Oldtown itself aren't a collection of towers, it's the same problem as "smoking tower" meaning castle or non-smoking tower.

That leaves two possible identities for the "towers by the sea":

The Citadel, which the AFFC prologue says has multiple towers. They are however "upriver", not on the sea, and have domes too.

Three Towers, the castle south of Oldtown on the Whispering Sound that also faces the Arbor and is mentioned in Samwell's AFFC chapters. According to Aeron TWOW, Euron is setting sail from an island close to the Arbor and preparing for battle against the Redwyne and Oldtown navies, so the fleets will likely meet close to Three Towers.

One thing not often remarked upon is that it's not "Then some towers by the sea". It's "Then the towers by the sea". To me, it sounds like Melisandre has seen this vision before, explaining why she speaks of a bloody sea even though the vision we see doesn't mention blood. I actually think Melisandre is right when she says that it's where the heaviest blow will fall - the vision appeared multiple times because the "towers by the sea" are A Big Deal. Whatever Euron or whoever is intending there will have huge reverberations.

[jackoshadows]

I feel like GRRM is stuck on Bran Stark. Bran being hard to write is why, despite being one of the central characters of the books, he only has half the POV chapters of Jon Snow. And why he is unable to finish The Winds of Winter and is doubtful of even finishing by 2025.

As a serial procrastinator, I can sympathize with a tendency to put off the hardest task with excuses, while eagerly completing the easiest first.

It's clear that GRRM loves writing Tyrion and Arya. He has an entire novel's worth of material in Braavos for Arya and I feel like the difficulty will be in editing it and cutting it down to fit into TWoW. Similarly Tyrion is most probably done as well, considering all the mentions of him writing Tyrion chapters in his notablog posts. So he's most likely done with the Tyrion and Arya POV chapters. They are the easiest characters for him to write.

Tyrion being done would mean that the Essos plot is largely dealt with as well considering Dany's POV would intersect with Tyrion's at some point and he can't fully finish Tyrion until Dany's is mostly done as well. In May 2012 he mentioned writing Dany's Essosi chapters.

WINDS OF WINTER. Yes, I’m working on that too. At the moment, I am writing about the Dothraki. More than that, I sayeth not, you know I don’t like to talk about this stuff.  - Daenerys POV (Essos)

In June 2020, he mentioned Barristan and more chapters in the North.

In between tapings, I return to Westeros. Of late I have been visiting with Cersei, Asha, Tyrion, Ser Barristan, and Areo Hotah. I will be dropping back into Braavos next week. - Cersei, Asha (North), Tyrion, Barristan (Essos)

He has also mentioned writing Victarion chapters.

We also know that the two battles - battle of fire in Essos and the battle of ice in the North - is already written and was simply moved from ADwD to TWoW.

With all this being intricately tied together into one giant plot - Stannis Vs Boltons at Winterfell, Theon and Asha with Stannis, the pink letter to Jon, Jeyne being send to the Wall, GRRM writing about how we will be getting 'Direwolves Vs Ramsay's hounds' etc. - means most of this is also done. GRRM has also mentioned writing Melisandre - the only POV at the Wall now that Jon Snow is dead - chapters. Which means the North/Wall is also mostly done.

“I think we’re gonna start out with a big smash with the two enormous  battles,” Martin says (Essos and North).  In addition, Martin says, “We have more deaths, and we have  more betrayals. We have more marriages.” Let the speculation begin. As  he’s noted before, Martin says the Dothraki are coming back into the  story (“in a big way”), and he says “a lot of stuff is happening at The  Wall.” - GRRM

August 2020:

My life is at home, on hold, and I am spending the days in Westeros with my pals Mel and Sam and Vic and Ty. And that girl with no name, over there in Braavos. -  The Wall/Mel, Sam, Victarion, Tyrion, Arya

So there's also Sam/Oldtown/Euron chapters - Sam is another character he loves writing. So that section of the story - possibly Euron's attack on Oldtown seen through Sam and Aeron POV chapters - has also got attention.

What about KL and the Riverlands?

November 2020:

Of late I have been spending a lot of time with theLannisters. Cersei and Tyrion in particular. I’ve also paid a visit to Dorne, and dropped in to Oldtown a time or three. In addition to turning out new chapters, I’ve been revising some old ones (some very old)… including, yes, some stuff I read at cons ages ago, or even posted online as samples. I tweak stuff constantly, and sometimes go beyond tweaking, moving things around, combining chapters, breaking chapters in two, reordering stuff. - Cersei (KL), Tyrion, Sam(Oldtown)

June 2022

WINDS, you say?   Yes, still working.   Finally finished a clutch of Cersei chapters that were giving me fits.   Now I am wrestling with Jaime and Brienne.   The work proceeds, though not as fast as many of you would like. - Cersei(KL) Jaime, Brienne (Riverrun, Lady Stoneheart)

So GRRM has recently (recent for us asoiaf fans lol!) finished Cersei, Jaime and Brienne chapters as well. So that's Essos, the North, the Wall, Oldtown, King's Landing and the Riverlands.

What's missing is Bran and Sansa in the Vale in terms of major POV characters. The Vale may just be an instance of being too isolated and unconnected from the rest of the plot until Littlefinger makes his move or GRRM may find writing LF's plotting a bit hard to tackle.

However, it's Bran that stands out for me in not being mentioned, considering this is the penultimate book and the threat from beyond the Wall has to be a big part of this book.

It has been my intention from the start to gradually bring up the amount of magic in each successive volume of A Song of Ice and Fire, and that will continue. - GRRM

“ And it is important that the individual books refer to the civil wars,  but the series title reminds us constantly that the real issue lies in  the North beyond the Wall. Stannis becomes one of the few characters   fully to understand that, which is why in spite of everything he is a   righteous man, and not just a version of Henry VII, Tiberius or Louis   XI.” - GRRM

From all his interviews here and there, I can think of 3 reasons why the Bran chapters are hard.

This is where a lot of the hard core high fantasy happens. And we know that there's a backstory with Hodor that involves some complex time travel shenanigans - not going to be easy to write for someone in his seventies. Even more complicated in terms of causal loops and temporal paradoxes if it's Bran's consciousness that's doing the time traveling.

Age. GRRM has admitted before that he finds Bran the hardest to write as a disabled little boy. Bran's grown up a couple of years and yet he's still a little boy - Arya's age in AGoT.

Isolation with few fun side characters. GRRM really loves that world building and writing for those tertiary characters surrounding his main character. Arya meeting fun new characters everywhere she goes, her arc in Braavos, Dany in Essos, Jon's colorful and fun side characters, Tyrion traveling through Essos. One reason for why the series blew up from a trilogy into this unfinished mess is because GRRM enjoying writing for the side characters more than the main characters. Brienne got 8 chapters traversing the Riverlands searching for Sansa while Bran languished with 3 chapters in ADwD. Thus far Bran's world is very isolated and disconnected and has the least side characters - Meera, Jojen, Summer, Bloodraven and Coldhands. Of these, only 3 speak.

I think therefore that having written everything that GRRM can of the characters he does enjoy writing and finishing off the political plot points, he has finally turned his attention to Bran Stark. This is hardest part, involves a lot of sticky notes and attention to detail and needs to cover a lot of ground, bringing the Others back into the story in a big way.

I wish him luck. It's not going to be easy to write plots and details that he thought of some 30 years ago but I hope that he gets to finish a decent chunk of Bran chapters so that TWoW can finally be published.

[catofoldstones]

what do you think fandom wise would happen if j0nsa was heavily hinted at in winds? most BNFs would have the biggest aneurysm lol

Well, it will definitely divide the fandom even more. As for the BNFs they will react the same way they did when the affc outline was released and the “resolve to be sansa stark” and “take north” excerpts came to light: by writing lengthy essays about how it’s something else entirely. Or maybe go full ostrich syndrome and duck their heads into the sand, and deny everything; claim that jonsas are delusional and we’re only seeing things we want to see. They might even go one step further and argue that Jon has lost his character and the Jon they know would never do anything like this, which is fairly common for fandoms in general to do.

As for jonsas, there might be schisms in this fandom too. I know and love mutuals who wish for Jon & Sansa to fall in love while they think siblings and get married to save the north and unmuddle the claim to the north, but I personally feel like the story is moving towards Sansa gaining more agency and independence in her life, so I would like for her to choose who she wants to marry, and it has to be someone who wants her despite her claim to the north. So them marrying out of obligation will never work for me, and people like me. But, a win is a win ;)

I think jonsa neutrals will continue to be just that and analyse the book from a non-ship perspective, which they still do.

Would love to see the tiktok “who is jeyne poole” and “cersei jaime incest explained” and “did you know in the books…” plebeians have a collective meltdown because they usually seem to have the strongest opinions on the books without ever having read them. I’ll have popcorn ready lol.

HOWEVER, the hints will only worsen the fandom wars we have going on. Every single anti opinion will trigger us and every single meta post by us will trigger the antis launching into an all out nuclear attack from both sides which will result in both new jonsas and new jonsa antis, twitter blowing up our posts, and a frustrated and unfruitful yearn for ados on all ends. The world side-eyes us and moves on, we don’t.

But, for that George has to release twow first, which rn feels both inevitable yet impossible.

TLDR: fandom remains fandom, we fight over the book like surviving factions over a fresh deer carcass after a zombie apocalypse, no one moves on.

[mryoyo000]

more TWOW predictions and theories

-Osha gets a degree in library science

-Lady Stoneheart tries French fries

-Stannis tries ice skating

-one of the Children of the Forest tries to involve Bran in a pyramid scheme

-Dany buys jeggings

-Cersei becomes a cryptozoologist

-Arya takes a course in nature photography

-Sam Tarly goes to a wedding and doesn’t enjoy it

-Cersei goes to a wedding but purposefully goes against the dress code

-Jaime buys a frozen pizza

[iceywolf24]

Since Bran has been watching winterfell I think we may see him really tested in TWOW.

and her boy lying there broken, the sweetest of her children, the gentlest - Catelyn III AGOT

The Bastard himself was dead Bran learned that evening over supper. Ser Rodrik's men had caught him on Hornwood land doing something horrible (Bran wasn't quite sure what, but it seemed to be something you did without your clothes) and shot him down with arrows as he tried to ride away. They came too late for poor Lady Hornwood, though. After their wedding, the Bastard had locked her in a tower and neglected to feed her. Bran had heard men saying that when Ser Rodrik had smashed down the door he found her with her mouth all bloody and her fingers chewed off. - Bran V ACOK

"Some people hurt others just because they can," said Jojen.

"And it wasn't Theon who did the killing at Winterfell," said Meera. "Too many of the dead were ironmen." - Bran II ASOS

Bran has a gentle heart, but we know he's seen the vile things Ramsay has done through the heart tree.

Bran has already repressed what Jaime did but some of that anger is still there shown when he thinks about how he could "tear out the kingslayer's throat".

In Winds, we may see his gentle heart tested as we learn his thoughts about what Ramsay has done.

Seeing someone truly just torture and hurt people the way he does and enjoy it.

He has heard of it before with Lady Hornwood but to see it personally especially with what he's done with Theon and Jeyne who he's known his entire life, especially the later who has never harmed anyone.

Not to mention Beth, Old Nan, Palla, and the others being held in the dungeons, Bran yielded Winterfell to protect everyone only to see them being hunted like animals.

"If ice can burn," said Jojen in his solemn voice, "then love and hate can mate. Mountain or marsh, it makes no matter. The land is one." - Bran II ASOS

Once outside the godswood the cold descended on him like a ravening wolf and caught him in its teeth. He lowered his head into the wind and made for the Great Hall, hastening after the long line of candles and torches. Ice crunched beneath his boots, and a sudden gust pushed back his hood, as if a ghost had plucked at him with frozen fingers, hungry to gaze upon his face.

Bran's love for his people bringing out a hatred in him.

Bran being Ice that burns away at the Boltons and Freys.

[laurellerual]

Harrenhal vs Winterfell (again)

Today I was thinking about that theory on Harrenhal. Part of that idea involves Winterfell falling and people being forced to abandon it because of the advance of the Others.

A friend pointed out to me a possible hole in this prediction. They argueed that there is (at least for now) no reason why the Others should attack the castle as they done in GoT season 8. So they could advance in their conquest without attacking the fortresses and limiting themselves to bring the winter, and waiting for the people who managed to take shelter beyond walls to die of starvation. This is a fair observation. The White Walkers are in no hurry (as far as we know) and supplies aren't infinite, so a similar strategy would make far more sense then a battle. BUT I found a reason why Winterfell may need to be evacuated with this issue in mind as well.

What about the emphasis placed on the crypts of Winterfell? on the lychyard? on how the Free folk burn the dead while the Starks don't?

Beneath the shadow of the First Keep was an ancient lichyard, its headstones spotted with pale lichen, where the old Kings of Winter had laid their faithful servants. It was there they buried Lady, while her brothers stalked between the graves like restless shadows. She had gone south, and only her bones had returned.

.

"They were the Kings in the North for thousands of years" Maester Luwin said, lifting the torch high so the light shone on the stone faces. Some were hairy and bearded, shaggy men fierce as the wolves that crouched by their feet. Others were shaved clean, their features gaunt and sharp-edged as the iron longswords across their laps. "Hard men for a hard time. Come." He strode briskly down the vault, past the procession of stone pillars and the endless carved figures. A tongue of flame trailed back from the upraised torch as he went. The vault was cavernous, longer than Winterfell itself, and Jon had told him once that there were other levels underneath, vaults even deeper and darker where the older kings were buried. It would not do to lose the light. Summer refused to move from the steps, even when Osha followed the torch, Bran in her arms.

What I'm trying to say is that Winterfell may not be the ideal place to take refuge from an army of undead that resurrects when the White Walkers bring the winter. The Others have no need to enter to take the castle as it is already full of dead people. Winterfell will be lost during the Long Night.

Perhaps that scene where the dead come out of the graves in the last season could have some truth in it.

[cynicalclassicist]

Theory on the death of Walder Frey

This is just a theory on the death of Walder Frey, as you probably gathered from the title.

Now, it is nigh-certain that a second Red Wedding is being planned by the Brotherhood without Banners, at the wedding of Devan Lannister and a Frey girl. Tom O'Sevens opening up Riverrun and letting in the BWB and their allies to massacre the wedding guests.

But how will Walder Frey die? I have heard ideas that he intends to be at this wedding, to see his family establish their power, in the castle of his former lieges, who he betrayed.

However, he is about 92 and you wonder whether he'll be able to make the trip across half the Riverlands. More likely he is going to be at the Twins when the news of the massacre hits him.

Around the same time that this happens news may hit him from the North, that Stannis has destroyed the Freys he sent with Roose Bolton to secure the North. It may be that the combined news could kill him from shock.

The show does have him face what feels a more fitting end, being killed by Arya. Him just dying of like a shock may be anti-climatic. But it's something to think about.

Either way, it is incredibly unlikely that he makes it through The Winds of Winter. That will really have the Freys being picked off by everyone who hates them, including each other.

He may of course just die naturally, but that would be even more anti-climatic. Probably a sense of justice needs to be him seeing the Red Wedding, which he thought would be his Rains of Castamere moment that would establish Frey power, backfire on his House.

Like I say, merely speculation. If he does go to Riverrun, he is not returning to the Twins.

If he dies at the Twins you may even get the Freys throwing round accusations that another Frey whacked the old weasel.

Ah well, him going should give us a sense of catharsis and we'll probably hear of lots of people celebrating his death and saying that he'll be burning below.

Or freezing below if we're going Dante.

And one of his sons is already going to a frozen lake!

Along with many others!

I made a few gifs of the Battle of Ice from that film and I am going to use them!

[buildoblivion]

winter lovers

[thebeesareback]

Anti-predictions for TWOW (things characters will happen, but definitely won't)

F-Ageon will rule Westeros peacefully for many years

Stannis will rule Westeros

Sam will read all the books at the citadel

Victarion and Dany will have many sons together

Arya will become no-one

Please add more!

[nerajaana]

The Winds of Winter: Jon Snow’s Resurrection

sponsored by R’hllor

Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger's hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold night air the wound was smoking. "Ghost," he whispered. Pain washed over him. Stick them with the pointy end. When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold … - Jon XIII, ADwD

One skinchanger can always sense another. Mance should have let me take the direwolf. There would be a second life worthy of a king. - Prologue, ADwD

[windriverdelta]

Minimal theory on a Stannis victory in early TWOW

This is really a spin on some theories others have made (namely the "Night Lamp"), but to summarize all in one place:

In the Theon TWOW preview chapter, he's preparing for battle with the Bolton army. We already know from ADWD that the crofter's village has a lighthouse for some reason, that the ice in the surrounding lakes is fragile, everything's snowed in, and the Frey and Manderly armies are heading there for battle. In the TWOW chapter we see he's caught the Karstarks - which were supposed to be Roose Bolton's double agents - but conspicuously spared their troops, he has guessed that the two remaining ravens of Karstark's maester will go to Winterfell, he's inexplicably confident and upon Theon claiming that they don't have natural defences he says that they don't have them "yet", and he notes that Hosteen Frey and Ramsay Snow are stupid/not a threat*. So what gives?

I tend to think that per the Night Lamp theory, Stannis plans to use the fragile ice of the lakes as defence. Hosteen Frey is never set up as a particularly bright person and between his rashness, the low visibility and Stannis possibly turning the lighthouse off and setting a tree ablaze/waving his glowing sword around, he (Hosteen) will almost certainly lose his way, ride over the fragile ice and drown himself and his army. Then all that Stannis and his army have to do is mopping up the survivors, and prepare for the Manderly attack...

...except that the Manderlys will not attack him. If Davos has succeeded in his recover-Rickon endeavour - quite a lot of time have passed since Davos IV and Theon I TWOW - then they'll join him at this point, or fall into the Freys' back. If not, they probably do a Late Walder Frey and desert instead, but I can't imagine them wasting their lives against Stannis. And I think that Ramsay will be busy in Winterfell (see below and **), so he won't attack.

At some point before or after the battle, Stannis will bring Theon to a weirwood tree to cut his head off. I tend to think that Asha succeeded at persuading Stannis to execute Theon by sword. That and the birds (almost certainly Bran and Bloodraven) are all enthusiastic about Theon being brought to a tree. So Stannis gets there, and when he's about to lop Theon's head off the tree/Bran talks to him and pleads for Theon - thus buying him a bit of time. The Northerners will be more easily persuaded if it's their gods/tree pleading for Theon rather than Ironborn reaver Asha, and Stannis is no stranger to magic.

Meanwhile, in Winterfell Theon's and fArya's escape has been noticed - and crucially, the complicity of Abel's/Mance's washerwomen. As noted by @turtle-paced here, there are strong indications that Ramsay is about to lose patience with his father; I think upon this discovery he flips out, kills his dad and Fat Walda and blames it on Wyman Manderly who everyone suspects is planning treachery. Hother Umber (h/t @poorquentyn), Wyman Manderly and their troops fight back; they fail and their heads get mounted on Winterfell's walls, but not without taking down a lot of Bolton soldiers. Afterwards, Ramsay tortures and flays Mance and his spearwives, thus getting the information on Jon Snow's plan that will appear in the Pink Letter. Then the Karstark troops show up with Stannis' sword and news that Stannis is dead, reinforced by raven messages. Ramsay lets them in, and writes the Pink Letter...

...but it's a trap! As soon Ramsay's back is turned, the Karstark troops (sidenote: oh the irony, Stannis using Roose's favourite tactic of betraying an army from the inside against him, with the same people no less) open Winterfell's gates to Stannis' army - or Bran/Theon lets it in via secret tunnels. At this point, Team Dustin turns cloak - they have no loyalty to Ramsay and he's a threat to them -, the remaining Bolton troops are caught by surprise and are defeated, Stannis seizes Winterfell. I think Ramsay tries to hide, but is betrayed by Theon and/or Big Walder Frey to Stannis and/or Ramsay's dogs (which "love Theon"). Ramsay dies screaming, either on a pyre or torn apart by his dogs.

I am not sure that Theon survives long afterwards, but either way the stage is set for the actual Starks to make a comeback.

*Some people have assumed that Stannis dismissing Hosteen Frey as "Ser Stupid" and Ramsay as "which battles has he ever won?" foreshadow his defeat. Problem is, as we've seen with the battle in the Whispering Wood in AGoT, predicating a battle plan on your opponent's stupidity is no guarantee of defeat if the enemy is, in fact, stupid - and sometimes even when he isn't as we saw at the Green Fork; Tywin won, but Robb wasn't there. We've seen Hosteen Frey in Arya's and Theon's chapters, he's rash, rushes to judgment, and while he sees Manderly's potential treachery everyone else saw that before him. There is simply no indication that he'd be able to recognize the ice lakes trap. Now Ramsay did win a battle ... but see above re Green Fork; the only price that Tywin had to pay for underestimating Robb was that Robb himself didn't appear at the battle. As Tywin, so Stannis with Ramsay not appearing in the crofter's village.

**I am inclined to think that Theon's wrong about Ramsay showing up. One, while he/we see the Freys and Manderlys preparing to ride out of Winterfell, there is no evidence for Ramsay. Secondly, Ramsay has effectively conditioned Theon to see Ramsay everywhere. It's an effective abuse tactic ... but a total bluff. Three, Ramsay has other things to worry about besides Stannis.

[gaykingslayer]

grrm please drop winds i beg. no no listen to me you won’t be safe in death they WILL summon your spirit from hell.

[marianperera]

My take on "The Winds of Winter"

Because there's so much speculation out there about this book, I decided to add my own. The rest is under a cut because it got really long.

In King’s Landing

At Cersei’s trial by combat, she’s defended by FrankenGregor, who naturally annihilates the Faith’s champion. But while Cersei believes she’s won, she’s actually played into a trap the High Septon set for her. He has heard about “Robert Strong”, and not being a fool, he suspected there was something strange about the man. Plus, how likely is it that there are two eight-foot-tall powerhouses in the land, and the second one just never happened to be heard of until the first disappeared?

So the High Septon instructs the Faith’s champion to focus on exposing FrankenGregor rather than trying to kill him, and just as Oberyn did, the Faith’s champion wins a Pyrrhic victory. He dies, but he shows the large crowd (Cersei pressed for a large crowd, naturally) that there’s something very… off… about FG. The Faith then spreads rumors about dark magic, so now people hate Cersei even more.

However, with Kevan’s and Pycelle’s deaths, Cersei’s path to power is pretty much unobstructed. Her first order of business is to send Harys Swyft to Braavos (as seen in the “Mercy” chapter of TWOW), partly to do business and partly because she both despises him and suspects he was solidly in Kevan’s corner rather than hers. Her second is to press for Margaery’s trial, but the High Septon refuses to allow Cersei to pressure him into doing anything. He also permits Randyll Tarly to take Margaery to visit her husband occasionally.

Into the midst of this stalemate come Nymeria and Tyene Sand, the former openly, to accept her father’s place on the Small Council, and the latter supposedly to take up duties as a septa. Tyene hears the rumors of FrankenGregor, and the two Sand Snakes are incensed that the murderer of their father might have been resurrected somehow.

Nymeria realizes at once that Cersei is utterly paranoid about the Tyrells. She tricks Cersei into believing that Margaery will take advantage of the lax security during her next meeting with Tommen to escape to the safety of Highgarden. Cersei sends FrankenGregor with Tommen, and orders FG to kill anyone trying to help Margaery escape. The Sand Snakes stage an escape attempt that’s fake as all hell (a tip of the hat to their pathetic performance re: Myrcella in the show) but which isn’t intended to help Margaery at all—it’s meant to force Cersei’s hand. It succeeds, and FrankenGregor tries to murder Margaery. Tommen gets in the way, and is killed instead. The Sand Snakes and Randyll’s surviving men get Margaery to safety (the irony of Reachmen and Dornishwomen working together, except they have very different goals, since the Sand Snakes want to fan the flames of Cersei’s paranoia even higher).

Cersei, meanwhile, is happy to be reunited with Myrcella, who returned on the same ship as the Sand Snakes. Naturally, her joy turns to ashes as she’s told about Tommen’s death. She immediately decides that the stories about FG’s rampage are lies, and she’s convinced the Tyrells murdered Tommen, since Margaery has disappeared. At first she doesn’t want to crown Myrcella, though—for one thing, Myrcella is traumatized by the murder of her younger brother and by her own brush with death, and for another, Cersei remembers the prophecy only too well. Maybe if she doesn’t give Myrcella a gold crown, Myrcella won’t have a gold shroud either.

Then Cersei hears about Aegon’s march on the capital. With the Golden Company, with the support of Dorne, and with more lords flocking to his banner every day. And since Cersei now feels backed into a corner, she insists that Myrcella be crowned. The High Septon is inclined to suspect the Tyrells of Kevan’s/Pycelle’s murder, especially given that Randyll Tarly has decamped southwards with Margaery, but the demand for Myrcella’s coronation pushes the High Septon further from Cersei. However, he says to Cersei, he is willing to not only accept a queen ruling in her own right but to throw the Faith’s forces behind Myrcella if the stain of dark magic is washed from the new regime.

Cersei is hesitant, but she decides that since she’s got FG, she doesn’t need Qyburn, who’s becoming something of a liability. He’s not a very good master of whispers, since he was unable to find whoever murdered Kevan and Pycelle, and now he’s the subject of rumors about vile magic. So she tells him he has to leave, hoping this will buy her time to shore up her crumbling foundations. She actually fires him with as much tact and generosity as she can muster, because she remembers how Qyburn visited her when she was imprisoned, but Qyburn literally has nowhere else to go, so he turns against her (a parallel to Tyrion, who she treated abominably but who never really worked against her). Qyburn manages to get away from the Faith with the help of a few other zombies he’s constructed from the various people Cersei gave him, but in revenge against Cersei, he informs the Faith that it's true, Cersei dabbled in dark magic and human sacrifice and now has an undead monstrosity by her side (a parallel to Ned being forced by the Lannisters to confess to something he didn’t do).

King’s Landing descends into chaos. Cersei crowns Myrcella, but it makes no difference, because Cersei no longer has the power to enforce her authority and with the revelations of what Qyburn was doing under her aegis, the entire city now wants her dead. As an enraged mob attacks the Red Keep, she flees with Myrcella and a handful of guards, making for Casterly Rock, and the Sand Snakes part ways. Tyene follows Cersei’s entourage, while Nymeria decides to take on FrankenGregor.

In the Riverlands

Jaime realizes that something is very wrong, not just with Brienne’s entire demeanor, but with what she’s claiming. Jaime is a terrible judge of character when it comes to his family, but he’s generally better when it comes to other people (kind of a low bar to clear, but anyway) and he doesn’t believe that Sandor Clegane, for all his faults, is so vicious as to murder a little girl. Suspecting something is up, Jaime hides a dagger somewhere on his person (shout-out to Littlefinger’s “the hidden dagger”), and he’s never been more glad to have one than when the BWB surround them. Brienne can’t even meet his eyes, she feels so guilty, but she tells Lady Stoneheart that she brought him, so Pod and Hyle Hunt are released. Lady Stoneheart orders Jaime to be restrained so she can kill him. Jaime manages to kill one of the BWB. Brienne, Hyle Hunt and Pod take advantage of the distraction and fight back as well. Hyle Hunt is killed, and for a moment it looks as though Brienne and Pod are going to be cut down too, but Gendry joins their side unexpectedly (he saw how Brienne was willing to sacrifice her life for the children, and he’s had enough of what the BWB has become).

The four of them grab horses and escape. Pod is shot in the back by an archer (so the readers feeling pleased about Hyle Hunt’s demise get whacked with the empathy cudgel) but Brienne, Gendry and Jaime get away. Brienne asks Jaime to forgive her, but he says there’s no need for that, he understands about conflicting oaths (a contrast to his relationship with Cersei, where there’s neither forgiveness nor understanding). Brienne and Jaime bury Pod, like two parents laying a child to rest, and when Jaime sees that Brienne is sinking into despair—she couldn’t save Renly, she couldn’t save Catelyn, she couldn’t save Pod—he knights her and then gives her another mission. Get Gendry to safety, because Gendry is Robert Baratheon’s son.

With both Brienne and a stunned Gendry as witnesses, Jaime makes it clear that Cersei’s children are not Robert’s, so the Lannister regime has no claim to the throne. Not only is he done with lies, after seeing Lady Stoneheart, he realizes that his father’s machinations have done nothing but corrupt and destroy in the end. And at that point, outriders find Jaime and inform him about the complete collapse of order in King’s Landing, and Cersei’s flight from the capital. Jaime gives Brienne a what did I tell you? look and kisses her goodbye. While he suspects that the undead Catelyn Stark will have it out for Walder Frey and all his ilk, Jaime couldn’t care less about them, and there’s no way to warn Daven before the second Red Wedding, so Jaime (“I am amply provisioned in cousins”) writes Daven off and rides for Casterly Rock.

What Jaime doesn’t realize is that the BWB also knows about Edmure being sent to Casterly Rock, thanks to Tom o’Sevens. And the BWB has been growing in numbers, taking in northmen and rivermen who are survivors of the Red Wedding and who want revenge. Lady Stoneheart splits her forces, sending a smaller group to intercept Edmure’s captors and a larger one, led by herself, to the Twins. The second Red Wedding takes place, and it’s just as bloody as the first, though instead of Walder Frey sitting on the dais enjoying the slaughter, it’s Walder Frey sitting in the same place frozen with terror as he watches his family being cut down. Finally Lady Stoneheart approaches him and he begins pleading for his life, saying he’s an old man and he regrets what he did, can she forgive him? She chokes out, “Mayhaps” (or mayhaps not) and guts him.

In the Vale

At the tourney, Sweetrobin collapses and it’s clear he’s dying. In the confusion, Ser Shadrich grabs his chance and kidnaps Sansa, or tries to. She struggles, and the two of them end up falling into a pool of water. Brienne arrives and intervenes. She’s still got one arm in a splint, but on his best day Shadrich will never be as strong or as determined as Brienne, and he’s quickly overpowered, while Gendry helps Sansa. The commotion attracts attention and the Vale nobility arrive. Harry, a day late and a silver stag short, brings up the rear, and he’s stunned to see that the water has washed most of the dye from Sansa’s hair. Bronze Yohn recognizes her at once now, but before he can say anything, Sansa tells the gathered crowd who she is and asks them to defend her birthright from the usurpers.

She’s picked her moment brilliantly, and the crowd goes wild. Brienne is the first to swear fealty, but Harry is not far behind, since he’s delighted that instead of being forced to marry “Littlefinger’s bastard”, he’s actually wedding the trueborn heir to the greatest estate in the north. But Sansa realizes at once that Brienne didn’t fight to save Sansa Stark, she risked her safety for some girl she didn’t even know, and that means a lot after so many people valuing Sansa mostly for her claim to Winterfell. 

The happy moment is blighted by the news that Sweetrobin has died. Harry makes the appropriate sounds of regret, but it’s clear all his birthdays are happening at once. Sansa is much more broken up about Sweetrobin’s death, especially since she knows who’s culpable here, but she manages to keep it together. She knows Littlefinger is watching for any sign that she’s going off script. As Harry organizes the knights of the Vale for their ride north, Brienne and Gendry tell Sansa about her mother and sister. Sansa is horrified by the news of Lady Stoneheart, and sad that Arya has disappeared, though she holds out hope that having survived so much, Arya will live through whatever else happens. Gendry tells her a bit more about Arya, in a way that shows he still has a soft spot for her (even after meeting Sansa, it’s clear he likes Arya more). Sansa, Littlefinger, Brienne, Gendry, and the Vale nobility set off north.

In Dorne

Areo Hotah and Obara Sand track Gerold Dayne down and kill him. So passeth the Darkstar of Dorne, we shall never see his like again, and we are all grateful. However, in High Hermitage, they discover that Edric Dayne was apparently a milk brother to Jon Snow, Ned Stark’s bastard, and they also find out about Rhaegar bringing Lyanna to the tower of joy, which is where Arthur Dayne died trying to keep Ned from reaching his sister.

Then word arrives from Sunspear—Arianne has confirmed that Aegon is Princess Elia’s son, and Dorne is going to war. Obara rides to join the Dornish forces, while Areo returns to Doran’s side and discovers that firstly, Aegon has offered for Arianne’s hand, and secondly, King’s Landing is in chaos and the Lannister regime toppling. Doran has a glimpse of the vengeance for Elia and the Targaryen restoration that he’s dreamed of for so long. Except Areo then tells Doran about everything they learned at High Hermitage, and Doran starts putting two and two together. Is it more likely that the Kingsguard most loyal to Rhaegar died to defend his mistress, or died to defend his son?

In Winterfell

The atmosphere in the castle is claustrophobic. Everyone is paranoid and teetering on the brink of violence. Ramsay is having the surviving spearwives and Abel the bard interrogated, but it’s clear that none of them know where Theon and Jeyne are, and there’s no chance of Ramsay getting them back unaided. Then comes the news that the first attack on Stannis’s forces has failed spectacularly, resulting in the death of Aenys Frey. Hosteen Frey takes control of the surviving troops and regroups them for a second strike, convinced that Stannis’s men must be starving and frozen by now, unable to effectively fight back. He rides out to do battle, but the Manderly forces with him turn back at the last minute. In the blizzard, Hosteen Frey and the rest of the Frey-Bolton loyalists are lured to the frozen lake, and the ice gives way under them.

A survivor makes it back to Winterfell, and before he dies, he manages to tell Roose what happened. Wyman Manderly has been waiting for this, and he makes a dramatic entrance, injured but triumphant. He tells Roose the Stark boys are alive, Davos Seaworth is bringing one back, and the Manderly forces are declaring for Stannis. As a final crowning touch, he tells them about the Frey pies. The Boltons slaughter him and his few defenders, but the Boltons have lost and Roose knows it. Not only is the news of the Frey pies such a shock that it sends Walda Bolton into premature labor, but Roose discovers that the reason Wyman made this suicidal speech, with only a few loyal men about him, was so he could distract the Frey-Bolton men in Winterfell long enough for the rest of his men to escape, and of course they’ll be joining Stannis.

Barbrey Dustin decides to cut her losses. Ramsay is like a cornered animal at this point and just looking for anyone to vent his rage on. He turns on her in a misguided attempt at intimidating the Dustin-Ryswell faction. Roose tries to put Ramsay back in his place, and Ramsay snaps completely. He murders Roose. In the chaos, the Dustins and Ryswells make a hasty exit. Ramsay seizes control of Winterfell, and though it’s obvious to everyone that he’s got hours at best to enjoy his rule, Ramsay isn’t intelligent enough to see this. He sends the Pink Letter and braces for Stannis’s retaliation.

The Manderly forces meet up with Stannis and present him with a letter signed with Wyman’s seal, telling him the truth about Davos. Stannis desperately wants to believe this, but can’t be sure—what if this is a trick? He’s pretty sure, though, that the Frey-Bolton forces have been seriously weakened, and one assault on Winterfell should be enough. The northmen want the old gods placated before they make this assault, though, so Stannis turns Theon over to them to be executed before a heart tree. That’s when Bran speaks through the tree, and Stannis realizes that Wyman was telling the truth—Bran and Rickon are still alive. Theon confirms this, and the northmen reluctantly decides to spare Theon, though there’s a definite sense of “he’s going to be executed somewhere down the line, just not now, since he didn’t kill his foster brothers and we might need to find out more from him”. The one thing Theon doesn’t tell anyone is that “Arya” is actually Jeyne.

Stannis’s army takes Winterfell using intel provided by Bran, and Ramsay is taken prisoner. Turns out the Bastard’s Boys aren’t so loyal when their lives are at stake. Stannis has Ramsay sacrificed to R’hllor. His men are fortifying Winterfell when news arrives from the Wall that Jon Snow has been murdered.

At the Wall

Fighting breaks out between the Night’s Watch mutineers, the Night’s Watch loyalists and the Free Folk. Melisandre receives a vision about burning Jon’s body, but when she does this, with Ghost in attendance (because GRRM loves his puns), Jon comes back to life. Melisandre tries to make him use the miracle to calm everyone down and unite them, but Jon’s understandably not in the best state of mind. He says his watch ended with his death, and he leaves for Winterfell (still thinking that Arya is there). Melisandre goes with him. The situation at the Wall becomes even more chaotic… until the Wall itself begins to tremble.

In Braavos

Justin Massey and Jeyne Poole arrive in Braavos, since Justin heard about Jon’s murder, so there’s no one to return “Arya” to now. In Braavos, Arya hears about her supposed arrival, and recognizes Jeyne. She also hears that they’re returning north, to Winterfell. The Faceless Men discover what happened to Raff the Sweetling, and they decide this is the last such deliberate insubordination from Arya. Wearing a new face, she grabs Needle and persuades Justin or “Arya” to take her with them. Justin has managed to hire all the sellswords and mercenaries Stannis needs, so they return. En route, Arya tells Jeyne the truth (she’s returning home, she’s reclaiming her identity), but they keep it a secret for now.

In the Dothraki Sea

With Drogon’s help, Daenerys takes over Jhaqo’s khalasar, then feeds him to her dragon before she tells the khalasar that she is going to Vaes Dothrak (she remembers her vision in the House of the Undying). Most of the khalasar follow her there, but messengers peel off to contact other khalasars and bring them all to Vaes Dothrak. The dosh khaleen resist initially, but perform a ritual which convinces them (and incidentally, gets blood all over them, which mirrors the ritual they performed back in the first book and explains why they’re crawling naked from the water in Dany’s vision). The khalasars arrive, and Dany unites them, then leads the ride back to Meereen.

[catofoldstones]

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