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I think this point can't be emphasized enough - ASOIAF is no place for people seeking satisfying justice. In fact, I struggle to think of a counter-example.

At best, we have the indirect justice like Janos Slynt being verbally spanked by Stannis and actually decapitated by Jon Snow, or by Joffrey's abuse of Sansa leading to the Tyrells assassinating him. At worst, we see Cersei's walk of shame and Theon's Reek-ification - all from their own PoVs, so that we see how unfair and nasty this flavour of "justice" is.

Honestly, one of my favorite things about GRRM's writing in asoiaf is how it turns the reader's bloodthirstiness against them.

Take Theon in ACOK, you are cheering in his final chapter because finally! Just desserts for that arrogant foolish bastard!

You read how the Bolton's have him captured in ASOS and say "Heh, good riddance".

And then... you read Reek chapters and with growing horror, you realize who is the person narrating. And suddenly, this need for payback, for him to face justice, doesn't feel that righteous anymore. No person should go through this.

The same goes for Cersei, her blaze of cruelty and scheming catches up to her when the sparrows imprison her. FINALLY, justice! and... you can only stare in horror and disgust at the walk of atonement scene. There is no vindication to be found here.

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Ironically, Cersei - not someone who we associate with "reasonable political decisions" - did the reasonable thing and complained to Robert about Tyrion's arrest.

But yes, it's important to remember that Tywin's actions here and elsewhere are about preserving his/the Lannisters' ego and self-image, less about the benefit of House Lannister and certainly not pragmatic or out of family love.

An alternate strategy for the riverlands is to just not invade and just demand Tyrion be released instead of starting a war

That doesn't fit with Tywin's MO, though. Tywin builtt himself a reputation as being the baddest OG on the block, so to run to King's Landing and beggar off the King to protect his son is to suggest, to Tywin's mindset, that he is incapable of doing it himself. Tywin can't do that, his psychological fixation on ensuring the House of Lannister is feared prevents him from doing so.

Thanks for the contribution, ASD.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

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Shireen's greyscale...

...is probably not going to become relevant to the main plot.

Why? First, there isn't really much space in the narrative for a plague, at least in the North - they have already to deal with war, famine, winter and the Others. A plague on top of that would be overloading the storyline.

Second, Stannis is going to burn Shireen alive - Martin has in an interview that this moment from Game of Thrones happens in the books as well, albeit in a different context most likely. Davos' ASOS chapters explain why: In order to create a Lightbringer that can defeat the Others, Stannis will sacrifice the one he loves the most akin to Azor Ahai sacrificing Nissa Nissa. And it will fail to work, because he isn't Azor Ahai (see Jon's and Aemon's discussions with Melisandre, the HOTU "slayer of lies" prophecy) and, quoth Davos:

The king moved, so his shadow fell upon King's Landing. "If Joffrey should die . . . what is the life of one bastard boy against a kingdom?""Everything," said Davos, softly.

Stannis (and come to think of it Melisandre) does not have the implicit right to sacrifice someone else for his objectives, even if the objectives are morally defensible.

In contrast, if Shireen's greyscale were to reawaken at some point before the sacrifice, the question would be whether the sacrifice failed because of thr greyscale, or whether it was necessary to stop the plague/Stannis waited too long. And we know the latter point would come up as the wildling Val explicitly says that Shireen should have been killed already, as is apparently custom among the Wildlings to kill greyscale-affected children. The thematic points about sacrifices would be largely lost and we'd end up with a lot of questions.

The only plot point that comes to mind where her greyscale may matter without turning the themes into nonsense is if Stannis, as I expect, survives the series and joins the Night's Watch. Kinslaying is taboo in Westeros but Val's comments imply that the Free Folk don't consider killing greyscale-affected children as improper. So they might not object to the sacrifice as much, potentially impacting the plot.

(In this context it's also worth noting that greyscale does not seem to have a lot of epidemic potential - from the way it is discussed, both explicitly by Jon Snow in his conversation with Val, and implicitly during other mentions of greyscale, isolated cases vastly outnumber outbreaks, and its ability to spread is very hit-and-miss. Now there are hints [Garin's legend] that greyscale is magic-adjacent and with the return of magic may behave more aggressively, but that doesn't mend the narrative problems above)

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Asha will probably outlive Theon in ASOIAF, and future political development of the Iron Islands

So, as of the released TWOW chapter Asha and Theon are together Stannis' prisoners. They are both POV characters, and Martin has said that the number of POV characters in TWOW will decline - as in, many will die. Given that Asha and Theon are unlikely to be separated in the future (there is no reason for Stannis or Bran to separate the two), one of them is likely on the chopping block.

Unlike many others, I think that Theon is on thinner ice than Asha, however:

Theon's character arc - from jerk to Reek to redemption - is done as soon as Stannis captures Winterfell and Ramsay dies (probably at Theon's hands). At best, we could see a further family reunion with Alannys Harlaw, or a Stark-Greyjoy reunion. Asha's arc however goes from being Balon's heir to making her own claim at the Kingsmoot to learning in captivity why it wasn't sufficient. This is a longer-term arc that probably ends with her becoming the actual leader of the Iron Islands, most likely after the War for the Dawn.

The Theon TWOW chapter is setting up both Theon's execution by Stannis and a probable encounter between Bran/Bloodraven-speaking-through-weirwood-trees and Theon/Stannis. However, even if Stannis and the Northerners are convinced to spare Theon after this conference, his bad health isn't going to go away.

Asha has probably spoiled the "Theon Latecomer" plan by spelling it out in detail. There is no dramatic tension if she discusses a precedent and then recreates it exactly. And while Aeron in his TWOW chapter thinks that only Theon and not Asha and Victarion can overthrow Euron, he also thinks that no godless man can sit the Seastone Chair and yet Euron did.

In my assessment this translates in Asha and not Theon surviving and ruling the Iron Islands.

Importantly, events in AFFC and ADWD have set up a scenario where Euron's viceroy in the Iron Islands (Erik Ironmaker) might be overthrown by Asha through force:

Euron and Victarion have withdrawn armed forces and supporters from the Islands and going by Aeron's TWOW chapter Euron probably doesn't care about them anymore.

The Iron Bank's delegate Tycho Nestoris has ransomed Asha's gang for reasons unknown.

Dagmer Cleftjaw's troops in Torrhen's Square are unaccounted for and apparently still around.

Rodrik "The Reader" Harlaw split from Euron at the Shield Islands and might be able to negotiate a withdrawal of his forces with the Reach.

Stannis and Justin Massey have discussed Asha's marriage probably as a prelude to advancing a claim to the Iron Islands.

If Euron is Bloodraven's rogue pupil Brynden might ask Bran/the North/Stannis for an intervention.

And oh yeah the "smoking tower" vision in Dany's House of the Undying is foreshadowing Euron's demise at Dany's hands.

I find it quite likely that in TWOW or ADOS Asha will assemble a coalition that will take the Iron Islands by force, overthrow Euron's lieutenants and remaining loyalists and install her as ruler.

Credit to @poorquentyn, @turtle-paced and the Redditor every-name-is-taken-2 for some references.

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Climate of ASOIAF and its interaction with geography

It is notable that despite the multiyear seasons that per Martin aren't due to physical phenomena, Planetos has an otherwise very Earth-like atmospheric circulation pattern - colder towards the poles, warmer to the equator, with a girdle of storms around the poles that move eastward, and tropical storms that hit Westeros from the southeast during autumn.

Hereby I'll hypothesize that a) the Lands of Always Winter have a size between Greenland and Antarctica, probably closer to the latter, b) the Narrow Sea has a warm northward ocean current, b) the Doom of Valyria didn't cause a volcanic winter, but changes in geography might have, c) the Planetosi equator runs from the Summer Isles westward through the Sunset Sea, the Saffron Straits and Jade Sea all the way to Sothoryos, w/o an "Americos" or Ulthos in the way and d) a continent between Essos and Westeros is almost certainly much smaller than Westeros if it exists at all.

:readmore:

For the record, I am assuming a continental configuration similar to, but with differences explained below, Werthead's in the Atlas of Ice and Fire blog, notwithstanding that as a Mercator projection it makes the Lands of Always Winter too large - and as I argue below, too small and with Ulthos incorrectly intersecting the equator:

The first thing to note is that per GRRM the Lands of Always Winter are probably larger than Greenland. In fact, given that the northernmost ice-free areas mentioned seem to correspond to the 70th meridian, it's possible that it has an area comparable to Antarctica. So that map might undersell their extent. The fact that the soggy Neck and the stormy Bite are located at around 50 degrees north might support this evaluation, since in the real world the Antarctic storm belt is centered at about that latitude. If we assume that Bran III AGOT was describing the Frozen Shore when he speaks of a "frozen shore", this might imply that permanent ice extends to 60 degrees north. The Thenn and Milkwater valleys might be equivalent to the McMurdo Dry Valleys, then. Granted, a somewhat smaller extent is also possible, depending on how far south sea ice extends in Westeros. Martin has also said that Essos does not extend to the far North; that is, the Shivering Sea surrounds the Lands of Always Winter like the Southern Ocean surrounds Antarctica, except that the North interrupts the ocean at Westeros.

Now there is a thing in Antarctica that doesn't seem to exist in Planetos: The Amundsen Sea Low. This is a semipermanent storm system that forms where storms running around Antarctica pile up against the Antarctic peninsula, and is one of the reasons why sailing conditions at Cape Horn are so treacherous. Given that the North is almost certainly a more effective block than the Drake Passage/Antarctic Peninsula, one might expect the "Sunset Sea Low" to be even more potent.

On the contrary, it seems like weather conditions west of the North are much calmer, with only sparse references to storms. That means that the "Sunset Sea Low" is weaker than the Amundsen storm system. This tells us a few things about Planetos:

There is probably no large continent west of Westeros. A smaller and/or mountainous continent in the middle of the storm track would weaken storms passing through. A large one conversely would spill cold air during winter and deflect warm sea currents (think the Gulf Stream), strengthening downstream storms. So we can assume that any "Americos" is no larger than Australia.

Warm oceans are distributed in a certain way. In the real world, the Amundsen Sea Low strengthens when water temperatures in the Atlantic are warm, and weakens when they are warm in the Indian and East Pacific. With the caveat that this assumes an Earth-like high altitude wind pattern in Planetos, this might tell us that water temperatures southwest of Westeros and in the Jade Sea are warmer than elsewhere along the equator - and warmer than the seas east of the Saffron Straits.

However, Corlys Velaryon's claim to have seen Elissa Farman's ship in Asshai - Elissa Farman travelled west of Westeros - suggests that there is an open oceanic connection from the Summer Isles westward to the Saffron Straits and thence into the Jade Sea. In fact, I think it's likely that the Saffron Straits extend along the equator and let warm water from the Sunset Sea drain into the Jade Sea. This would also explain the clockwise winds in the northern Jade Sea mentioned by sailors, since the trade winds from the Sunset Sea would be funnelled along the equator through the Jade Sea and turn clockwise like the monsoon into Yi Ti. Some of the warm water would spill through the Cinnamon Straits and Jade Gates into the eastern Summer Sea, forming a second "warm water pool".

Now onto the Narrow Sea. Given that westerly winds blow along the Shivering Sea, they would tend to push water eastward, lowering water levels around Braavos and driving a northward ocean current in the Narrow Sea. The warm water cooling and evaporating as it heads north would cause it to sink, forming a thermohaline circulation akin to that of the Atlantic Ocean. This would make the Narrow Sea much warmer than the Sunset Sea, and would amplify hurricane activity around the Stepstones.

In this context, it's interesting to discuss the effects the Doom of Valyria had on climate. Given that Valyria is never described as an archipelago pre-Doom and that the Doom caused an intense tsunami to its east, it's reasonable to assume that the entire archipelago is a volcanic caldera. One much larger than any volcano of Earth, probably more akin to the largest volcanoes of Mars. Its formation probably wouldn't lead to a "volcanic winter", however; volcanic winters don't scale up with the size of eruption and the involvement of all that water would weaken the cooling effect. It's reasonable to discuss the effects that the formation of the Smoking Sea and the other straits had on Planetos' climate, though: The boiling water and additional pathways for Jade Sea water to reach west would cause the Narrow and eastern Summer Sea to become warmer. This would increase precipitation over Westeros, Essos and Sothoryos (possibly explaining the rise of the Hoare-era Ironborn conquerors, Dothraki and decline of Gogossos) and storminess in the Stormlands (possibly explaining their decline during Arrec's rule).

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ASOIAF seasons

...probably won't cause the extinction of crops in Westeros. Many important plants like corn can survive through winter through their seeds, and the duration of seed viability is measured in years, sometimes approaching decades (e.g source and blog) even without factoring natural selection under a multi-year season climate in. Tree growth likewise is subject to dormancy and limited less by the duration of winter and more by the duration of summer alone ("growing degree days"), as we can see from boreal forests in Siberia. In fact, it's crop pests like locusts, fungi and aphids which would likely take the brunt of multiyear seasons, as they'd have to survive not only winter but also lack of food - unlike humans which can store food and switch between food sources. In fact, the lore does not mention crop pests at all and it wouldn't surprise me if a mass extinction of pest insects occurred during the first long winter*. Granted, this would also apply to much of Westeros' wildlife...

Where the bigger problems start is when Martin speaks of "false springs and spirit summers" or summer snows (Bran V AGOT: "Robb lifted his face to the snow, and the flakes melted on his cheeks"), because unless they last long enough to negate the whole "multiyear seasons", summer snows would cause crop failures and false springs premature germination of crops, followed by crop failure during the next cold. This is an example of an "explanation" that doesn't solve anything and only makes problems worse.

The real big issues however are the non-temperature related traits of seasons, like dry seasons and especially fire seasons. Any place with a pronounced dry season would lose its forests to fire during the dry season, with only "desert blooms" and limited regrowth of woody plants during the wet season; many lakes and rivers would dry out during the dry seasons. In particular, places like Oldtown and Dorne where "snow falls almost never" akin to a Mediterranean climate would be treeless and at risk of famine during prolonged dry seasons. Even boreal climates like Siberia have fire seasons in the real world; extensive forest fires would be a threat to the North.**

But what is the point of the multiyear seasons? I think that the key is the "heart of winter" that scares Bran in Bran III AGOT, Martin's comments that the seasons are due to supernatural and not scientific factors, Septon Barth's theory in TWOIAF that once upon a time the seasons were regular and tied to day length like they are in the real world, and the fact that ice demons are the main villains of ASOIAF. I find it quite likely that Daenerys, Jon Snow and Tyrion will launch an attack on dragonback against the heart of winter in order to wipe out the Others at their root somewhere in ADOS - and the survivors in Westeros will know that they were successful when spring begins unexpectedly and the seasons become regular again***, even if none of them ever return.

*I don't agree that Jojen's "greywater fever" is cerebral malaria for exactly this reason - even if mosquitoes could handle multiyear winters north of the Riverlands, cerebral malaria in children is almost always caused by Plasmodium falciparum, which is a strictly tropical species. You aren't going to find it in places with temperate climates and certainly not in places with multiyear winters. No, if greywater fever is mosquito-borne it's most likely viral like West Nile fever. Or it might also be a diarrhoeal disease akin to food poisoning, stomach flu or cholera - these can cause coma through dehydration.

**Ironically, charcoal from vegetation fires might improve crop growth by keeping nutrients in the soil. There is evidence that superfertile soils like the Eurasian chernozems and tropical terra preta owe their existence in part to burning. Thus giving Westeros realistic fire seasons might further mitigate food issues caused by the long seasons.

***For the sake of humanity I hope that this normalization is accompanied by a notable global warming - it's well-established in the real world that less extreme seasons lead to ice ages, thanks to things like ice sheets growing more slowly than they can melt.

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Westeros alternative geography

Mostly to solve this problem, I'd have a through-going river (which I've christened Wind River) from Thenn to Starfall. That is, extend the Milkwater to the Neck, passing it through the Wall at Castle Black, past Last Hearth, the crofter's village and Barrowton. Then it follows the Green Fork, but instead of forming a Trident (I also take out the Blue Fork), I have it turn southwest, reversing the Red Fork up to Riverrun. There it continues southeast to High Heart, Rushing Falls, Tumbler's Falls and then to Bitterbridge. Then it follows the course of the Mander until Dunstonbury. There it continues south to Oldtown - which I put on the opposite side of High Hermitage. There the river forms a delta in front of the Arbor, between Blackcrown and Starfall, flanked by two distributaries - the western Honeywine and the larger eastern Whispering Sound (with Three Towers and Starfall on opposite sides).

The Vale and Westerlands too are joined with its watershed - unlike in the books, I have most of the Vale being internally drained through a gorge in the Bloody Gate southwestward to this river ("Vale River"). And the Westerlands river that descends from Sarsfield doesn't end in the Sunset Sea, but rather continues south past Casterly Rock and eventually joins this river at Highgarden. The Stormlands are even more complex - there is a Blackwater Rush, but it originates south of King's Landing in the Kingswood and eastern Dornish Marches. At King's Landing it undergoes a river bifurcation - most of it continues northeastward to a delta in the Narrow Sea, but part of the flow goes due west (forming the Rose River), takes the outlet of the Gods' Eye, and joins the Wind River southeast of Stoney Sept.

This river bifurcation formed only shortly before the Conquest - before, the entire Blackwater flowed into the Narrow Sea - and the connection it established between the Wind River and the Narrow Sea was key in the growth of King's Landing. Aegon I and Jaehaerys I established a firm Iron Throne control over the internal waterways, explicitly prohibiting any lord from claiming fees or duties or any other authority on the rivers, a rule strictly enforced by all Targaryens and Baratheons. During wartime, control of the river system is pivotal - the inability of the Two Kings during the Conquest, of the Greens during the Dance and the Blacks during the First Blackfyre to contest the Rose River led to the failure of their efforts, and the incompetence of Aerys II's cronies early during Robert's Rebellion, plus the rebels establishing connections by sea, allowed Team Arryn to seize control of the rivers north of the Rose River.

The maesters believe that this river system formed only in recent eons, when the growth of hills on the western coast of the Reach (some even link the legend of Storm's End to the Blackwater), the formation of the Gods' Eye and Bite, and the Hammer of the Waters (which in this AU tried to split Westeros in east-west rather than north-south) merged numerous drainages.

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I kind of wonder if Sansa's (and Sandor's) knowledge might come up again in TWoW.

It's quite likely that TWoW will see the reunion of the Starks and the overthrow of the Boltons, and since Stannis is almost certainly going to survive until the Horn of Joramun takes the wall down, they'll have to deal with each other. This thing about Ned might come up here.

What's more, I find it quite possible that while Stannis will eliminate the Boltons early on, Littlefinger will try to advance Sansa's claim to the North afterwards. The "castle made of snow" where the maid (=Sansa) will slay a savage giant (=Littlefinger, the Baelish sigil is a giant, and Petyr is metaphorically a giant anyway) according to the Ghost of High Heart is probably Winterfell, after all, and I find it possible that Littlefinger's execution by Sansa in GoT is actually from GRRM's notes. While I don't expect Stannis to be the main driver behind Sansa turning on Littlefinger, it's a thing that could be mentioned in this context.

Does Stannis, or anybody else, know that Ned was killed for his support of Stannis assuming the throne?

Well, Cersei and the Small Council (Pycelle, Littlefinger, Varys) obviously know that Ned supported Stannis. As does everyone who was in the throne room (Joffrey, Myrcella, Tommen, Barristan Selmy, Sandor Clegane, Janos Slynt) when Ned presented Robert’s will and declared that Joff had no claim and Stannis was the true heir, though whether they actually believed Ned is a different matter.

However, this is apparently what the news from King’s Landing said:

“Lord Eddard has been imprisoned. He is charged with treason. It is said he plotted with Robert’s brothers to deny the throne to Prince Joffrey.”

–AGOT, Jon VII

And unfortunately this doesn’t mention Stannis specifically, and also Stannis wasn’t part of Ned’s confession before his execution – he only admitted to trying to take the throne for himself. (As Varys had told him he should denounce Stannis and Renly as traitors, it may be that the Small Council decided to even mention their names would lend legitimacy to their claims.) So the general public doesn’t know.

Let’s see, who else – Arya doesn’t know. Robb and Catelyn also heard only the “Robert’s brothers” story and never learned that Ned supported Stannis, which was a big problem since otherwise their decisions in the War of the Five Kings would have been very different.

But interestingly, Sansa does know:

Grand Maester Pycelle lifted his ancient head. “With my own ears, I heard Lord Eddard swear to our beloved King Robert that he would protect the young princes as if they were his own sons. And yet the moment the king was dead, he called the small council together to steal Prince Joffrey’s rightful throne.”“No,” Sansa blurted. “He wouldn’t do that. He wouldn’t!”The queen picked up a letter. The paper was torn and stiff with dried blood, but the broken seal was her father’s, the direwolf stamped in pale wax. “We found this on the captain of your household guard, Sansa. It is a letter to my late husband’s brother Stannis, inviting him to take the crown.”

–AGOT, Sansa IV

Although how much she remembers, considering all the trauma and the fact that the letters they had her write to her family reasserted the “brothers” story, may be another question.

As for Stannis himself, no, he doesn’t know. Per above, Ned’s letter never reached him, and thus “Why should I avenge Eddard Stark? The man was nothing to me.” Though note that Stannis does believe that Ned was no traitor:

“…I swear to you on my father’s name that I never turned my cloak.”“I believe you,” the king said.That startled him. “Why?”Stannis snorted. “I know Janos Slynt. And I knew Ned Stark as well. Your father was no friend of mine, but only a fool would doubt his honor or his honesty. You have his look.” […]“Beauty can be treacherous. My brother learned that lesson from Cersei Lannister. She murdered him, do not doubt it. Your father and Jon Arryn as well.”

–ASOS, Jon XI

BTW, if you want to be accurate, Ned was not killed because he supported Stannis. He was arrested and charged with treason because he supported Stannis, but after his confession he was going to be sent to the Wall. The reason why Ned was killed is a very different story.

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Aye, while I don't agree with @nobodysuspectsthebutterfly's objections to Riverrun as the site of RW 2.0, I think this:

when Lady Stoneheart and the Brotherhood round up every [Frey and Lannister] in [Riverrun] and bar the doors and set the building on fire... and no, women and children won’t be spared, the “good ones” won’t be spared, the POV will hear them wailing and begging as the flames crackle and climb higher... you’ll feel that horror and numbness yourself, and you’ll say, “dammit GRRM, no, I never wanted this.”

...is exactly how I expect Red Wedding 2.0 will come to pass (considering "Catelyn would gladly have spitted the querulous old man and roasted him over a fire" in AGOT and the BwB burning out Utt's band in ACOK): Not just Late Walder and Emmon, but also Genna and her remaining family will die horribly. Folks expecting clean justice or fair trials are in for a nasty surprise.

I think there will be additional political effects, though: Walder's demise will cause the remaining Freys to turn on each other, the demise of Daven and Genna will remove the remaining pro-Iron Throne leadership in the Riverlands. Add the probable liberation of Edmure and Frey hostages: I think the Riverlands will rise in rebellion, and the Iron Throne will lack the means to control it.

What will Jaime's reaction and development in response to the probable slaughter of Freys and Lannisters ("Red Wedding 2.0") by Lady Stoneheart, and the rebellion of the Riverlands that will likely follow, be? While there are a lot of valonqar theories and theories of how he might survive the encounter with Stoneheart, but for some reason I don't recall any theories on this front. Might there be a realization that his family's, and his, actions in the Riverlands from AGoT forward were wrong?

To the extend a “second Red Wedding” or similar event happens, I tend to think the impact would be intended for us as readers, rather than for Jaime as a character. Throughout his chapters in AFFC and ADWD, in my opinion, Jaime never quite gets to the point of realizing, to put it a certain way, “are we the baddies”. Jaime may pat himself on the back (with his golden hand) for hanging outlaws found beneath a Wode keep, but never considers what responsibility his father’s order to raze the Riverlands had on these presumably homeless, presumably starving people sheltering in a now-rare refuge. Jaime advocates for the Lannister-Frey household at Darry to “make the smallfolk love you” as a response to their support of the brotherhood without banners, without acknowledging the hypocrisy of this household trying to win the love of people whose neighbors had been raped, murdered, and despoiled by Lannister agents and whose lords and countrymen the Freys had murdered in a gross violation of guest right (or such smallfolk seeking justice from a royal dynasty which directly engineered and benefitted from the Red Wedding). Jaime applauds himself for, as he sees it, bringing about Riverrun’s surrender without seeing, or being willing to see, that by bringing an army to this siege, mentally deciding that he would storm the walls if the Tullys remained obstinate, and threatening Edmure with violence against himself, his people, and his unborn child, he, Jaime, had already violated his oath to Catelyn (to say nothing, again, of rewarding the perpetrators of the Red Wedding). Jaime departs Raventree Hall not only by threatening Lord Tytos with Hoster’s beheading if Tytos were to aid any “outlaws and rebels” but by wishing him “a good harvest and the joy of the king’s peace” - a cruel and hollow sort of farewell, given that Jaime’s family’s agents ravaged the Riverlands  and its hope of harvests and that this same royal government was the one which oversaw the murders of, among others, Blackwood’s second son and his king. Given all that, I don’t see it likely or timely for Jaime to witness a second Red Wedding type of event and say “oh right, we were wrong the whole time”; Jaime’s had plenty of evidence of that up to this point without drawing that conclusion. 

Which is not to say that this event, should it happen, would have no impact, of course. Rather, I think GRRM may use such an event to have readers reflect on, and perhaps challenge, any desire for and approach to vengeance. The Freys may suffer and die en masse - not necessarily just those who directly swung a sword or helped organize the Red Wedding in the first place. The uncomfortable display and exploration of the violent execution (pun intended) of certain acts of vengeance is a topic GRRM often handles very well, and I could see the author writing a second Red Wedding as, perhaps, an escalation of the end of Brienne’s arc in AFFC: as then the brotherhood, under Lady Stoneheart, was willing to murder Brienne, Hyle Hunt, and Podrick Payne on grossly inaccurate and unjust connections to the Lannister regime, so now perhaps the brotherhood and Lady Stoneheart will kill any Freys they can seize, whether or not these Freys actually participated in or even condoned the Red Wedding. 

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What worth a blood sacrifice (to Euron Greyjoy) in ASOIAF?

A matter of dispute both in-story (among Cersei Lannister's councillors in Cersei VII AFFC) and among readers (e.g contributions by @racefortheironthrone, @warsofasoiaf and @madeinmyr) is the size of Euron Greyjoy's fleet. Specifically, whether it is actually plausible that he could invade the Reach with a thousand ships, given the population size of the Iron Islands.

I'd like to follow up on @warsofasoiaf's comment that it'd be true only if "they started counting every tiny fishing boat as a ship". True, you wouldn't want to head into battle on a fishing boat or send fishermen into a fight, but if the "battle" is actually a giant blood sacrifice? What's not good for one thing may be good for another.

So, what worth is a blood sacrifice? Melisandre says that there is magic in king's blood, but that's less meaningful than it sounds - what determines who is a "king" for the purpose of magic? Bloodline? Acclamation? Election? Empirically, she got good use out of burning Alester Florent despite him having only a remote link to kings and Moqorro got magic out of sacrificed slaves with no connection to kings at all. Different magic type, but the First Men offered prisoners of war to weirwood trees (Bran III ADWD), again with no links to kings. More indicative probably are Melisandre's words in Davos V and VI ASOS (emphasis mine):

"The Lord of Light cherishes the innocent. There is no sacrifice more precious. From his king's blood and his untainted fire, a dragon shall be born." "If a man with a thousand cows gives one to god, that is nothing. But a man who offers the only cow he owns..."

Now, Alester Florent is again an exception as he's a self-serving traitor, and not in any way innocent*. However, Edric Storm definitely is innocent, as are the slaves that Moqorro** burns. And maester Kerwin and the boy sex slaves that Victarion drowns, too, if we assume that the same principles of blood magic apply. I think that the most parsimonious reading is that any sacrifice is acceptable, but these of people dear to you, innocents and relatives of kings are much more valuable.

This notion of sacrificing innocents or people important to you yielding more magical mojo also works narratively, being a morality challenge for magic users as exemplified by the Davos-Melisandre-Stannis debate on sacrificing Edric Storm: How much and who are you willing to lose for the sake of a spell, and what does it say about you? If all you need is a Septon Utt or a Gregor Clegane or Ramsay Snow, then the point doesn't land as well.

Now, Euron Greyjoy is never going to have any moral qualms about anything, including sacrificing other people, and the only thing he cares about is his own power and advancement. Still, it's likely that sacrificing his supporters*** or simple fishermen of the Iron Islands would yield a bigger magical payoff than sacrificing the professional Iron Fleet (which he sent to Slaver's Bay), potential political rivals (the lords he installed on the Shield Islands), disinterested people or opportunists (people who stayed behind in the Iron Islands, in the North, at the Arbor or the Shields, such as "It's the Arbor we want" Red Ralf - we know that Euron faced resistance and had to change his plans while he was on the Shields). So in a way, if the "thousand ships" include fishermen and/or fishing vessels****, that might actually benefit Euron's plans. Sure, not having all people of the Iron Islands in the Whispering Sound isn't great, and the Redwyne and Oldtown navies aren't very valuable as sacrifices if they are part of it at all*****, but blood sacrifice quality-wise Euron has brought the goodies along.

(Enquiring minds would like to know why Euron needs to go all the way to Oldtown if a blood sacrifice is his goal. I think it's because he needs a favourable background, like the availability of priests, the various magical associations of Oldtown, possibly the arrival of one of Daenerys' dragons ensorceled by Dragonbinder, for the sac to have the maximum effect)

*Sorry, Onion Knight, but this time you are simply wrong when arguing otherwise, and turtle-paced and agentrouka are right, putting the morality of execution by cremation aside for a moment. **While Stannis probably isn't consciously articulating any principles of blood magic when he says "If I must sacrifice one child to the flames to save a million from the dark . . . Sacrifice . . . is never easy, Davos. Or it is no true sacrifice." I think Moqorro has made the same calculus, that burning a few innocent slaves for the sake of the many that Daenerys can rescue if he can bring her to Volantis is an acceptable trade-off. Note that both he and Melisandre subscribe to the same religion and magic style, and have a good vs evil worldview. ***According to the Aeron TWOW chapter and AWOIAF, the people sailing into the blood sacrifice/battle of the Whispering Sound are Left-Hand Lucas Codd and Pinchface Jon Myre (supported Euron at the Kingsmoot, traded insults with Asha there), the Red Oarsman (supported Euron at the Kingsmoot, laughing at Aeron and Asha), Stonehand (supported Euron at the Kingsmoot), Rogin Salt-Beard (unknown), Torwold Browntooth (supported Euron at the Kingsmoot), House Wynch (among Euron's first supporters) and House Goodbrother (switched from Victarion to Euron at the Kingsmoot)

****Aeron sees fishing vessels in TWOW, but it's not clear if they came from the Iron Islands or were captured later. Victarion frequently refers to capturing fishing vessels, and Samwell V AFFC mentions attacks on fishermen villages and wrecked fishing vessels around the Whispering Sound. *****Their absence in Aeron's vision of "He saw the longships of the Ironborn adrift and burning on a boiling blood­-red sea. He saw his brother on the Iron Throne again, but Euron was no longer human" makes one wonder.

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How did Euron survive his trip to Valyria?

One aspect of Euron Greyjoy that is often argued about is whether he has really been to Valyria. Crow's Eye claims so in the Reaver and Drowned Man AFFC chapters, while Lord Rodrik "The Reader" Harlaw voices doubt. According to TWOIAF and others, no one who went to Valyria after the Doom came back - except maybe Aerea Targaryen and her dragon Balerion, and the former died soon after return while the latter was noticeably injured despite being literally the biggest and scariest dragon known in ASOIAF. However, my understanding is that Martin himself confirmed that Euron did indeed visit Valyria, or at least this is the common interpretation of his statements.

One thing that doesn't come up often is that "Euron visited Valyria" does not have to mean "Euron set physically foot there himself". He could have flown over it, or used someone else's body.

In The Reaver AFFC, Euron makes the following claim:

"When I was a boy, I dreamt that I could fly," he announced. "When I woke, I couldn't . . . or so the maester said. But what if he lied?"

As a number of people have noted, this is eerily reminiscent of Bran's dreams of falling and flying in AGOT, while he was comatose. During these dreams - which probably are not actual dreams in the normal sense, but rather extracorporeal experiences - Bran was among other things flying over Westeros, and seeing as far as the Heart of Winter and deep into it (Bran III AGOT). If Euron had a similar experience but looked southeast, he could have seen Valyria - and into Valyria.

What's more, Bloodraven tells us that you need to be a skinchanger to become a greenseer. Jojen Reed says that he (Jojen) is only a greendreamer (Bran III ADWD) and doesn't mention any flying "dreams", indicating that they are specific to greenseers So if the flight "dreams" are a sign that Euron has the greensight, then he's also a skinchanger.

We know from Bran III ASOS, Bran I and III ADWD that he can skinchange into Hodor, and Varamyr in the ADWD prologue elaborates on the concept of skinchanging into people. There are indications in the Aeron TWOW chapter that Euron skinchanged into his brother Robin - calling his head "soft" as if Euron had been inside. Moreover Bran thinks that "No one must ever know" about the skinchanging into Hodor, Varamyr thinks "No one will ever know" about entering the spearwife Thistle; in a parallel, Euron cuts the tongues out of his ship's crew and has no moral qualms in general - a necessary condition to do something as immoral as skinchanging people. So it's possible that Euron skinchanged into some poor sod that he then sent into Valyria, while his (Euron's) own body remained at a safe distance on his Silence.

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On Bran skinchanging into Hodor

"Skinchanging" in ASOIAF, quoth the wiki, refers to the ability to enter the mind of an animal and control its actions. It is not limited to non-human animals: We know from Bran III ASOS, Bran I and III ADWD that he can skinchange into his servant Hodor, and Varamyr in the ADWD prologue elaborates on the concept of skinchanging into people.

Notably, we are told and shown in the Bran and Varamyr ADWD chapters that skinchanging into people is grossly immoral. The skinchanger Haggon says that skinchanging into a person is the worst abomination you can do, Varamyr assumes that Mance Rayder would curse him (Varamyr) for attempting to skinchange into Thistle, and it's easy to understand why: You are essentially taking control of someone else's body, forcing yourself into their psyche. Hodor is afraid, upset (Bran I ADWD) and eventually traumatized/near-catatonic (Bran III ADWD):

The big stableboy no longer fought him as he had the first time, back in the lake tower during the storm. Like a dog who has had all the fight whipped out of him, Hodor would curl up and hide whenever Bran reached out for him. His hiding place was somewhere deep within him, a pit where not even Bran could touch him

Hodor does not have any defence against Bran. The spearwife Thistle has an almost psychotic reaction to Varamyr attempting to enter her, including flaying around, ripping parts of herself out in an attempt to fight back and kick him back out. In troping terms, we'd say "mind rape".

It's worth noting that apart from Bran, the only two people we know or suspect of skinchanging into people are Varamyr and Euron Greyjoy, both (especially the latter) evil characters. And Bran himself is pushing the envelope more and more - from a near accidental skinchanging into Hodor in ASOS he's gone to regularly taking Hodor's body by ADWD. And per Martin's comments on the "hold the door" moment in Game of Thrones, I expect him to push it all the way to using Hodor to fight against wights, to Hodor's probable death. And while I think Bran will eventually regret his actions, it would be Bran Stark's darkest moment in ASOIAF.

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Yeah, a lot of people forget that Vaemond's claims to Driftmark are not legitimate - "A daughter comes before an uncle" goes Westerosi succession everywhere we know except for Targaryens, so even if Rhaenyra's sons aren't Laenor's, Laena daughter of Corlys' daughters Baela and Rhaena are ahead of Vaemond in the Velaryon succession, as their parentage and grandparentage isn't in dispute. That Corlys demanded the legitimization and succession of his probable sons Addam and Alyn does not imply that he'd prefer a brother, cousin or nephew over his granddaughters.

But in my opinion, this is a classic "all sides wrong" situation. Westerosi society in general shouldn't demand that gay men impregnate their wives nor blame said wives for their husbands' decisions; Vaemond specifically also shouldn't make invalid claims of inheritance; and Rhaenyra and Daemon should most definitely not murder people complaining about them and Viserys shouldn't condone these murders. Someone else's misdeeds don't justify your own, folks!

People are so insensitive when it comes to Rhaenyra’s situation. I have never seen so much cruelty directed towards a girl who was put between a rock and a hard place.

You all are acting as though Rhaenyra’s goal in life was to cheat on Laenor and undermine the Velaryons, her allies and her kin. She didn’t sleep around with the purpose of getting back at her husband and having children with other men out of spite (she’s not Cersei).

Rhaenyra was forced into marriage with a gay man and expected to produce heirs not only for the Iron Throne but also for Driftmark. So, an heir and a spare for House Targaryen. Another heir and another spare for House Velaryon. Four children (preferably sons) were expected from her womb. Good luck with that.

Let’s suppose that the rumors are true and Jacaerys, Lucerys and Joffrey are not Laenor’s. Rhaenyra’s decision to have children with another man should be less criticized, and regarded with more sympathy. She couldn’t spend her entire marriage life to Laenor without having children. Her “suitable” options were these:

1. Remain childless and let herself, the Princess of Dragonstone and Heir to the Throne, be called barren.

2. Demand an annulment by exposing Laenor’s nature (confirming the rumors), and not only humiliating House Velaryon (her allies) but also putting the succession of Driftmark into question (since Laenor was Corlys’ only son and his chosen heir).

At a time when a faction of snakes was constantly nipping at her heels, either one of these options would have left Rhaenyra vulnerable at Court.

She took matters into her own hands and had children with another man. And not just another man. This was a man she could trust, her sworn shield, a man who cared for her and who would never betray her (it’s hard to find someone like that).

To claim that she should have chosen a Valyrian (as though the options are unlimited) is extremely superficial. For this to work, she needed someone trustworthy, someone who would not attempt to claim the children later on. We all know that Daemon would have been the best option for her. She loved him, he was Valyrian and her ally. But alas, with his own marriage and life away from Court, it wasn’t really possible. And I am not really sure if Daemon would have been okay with another man laying claim to his children (that is up for debate).

Rhaenyra preferred a man who was trustworthy over a man with the “correct” features. The chances were 50/50 that the children would look like her, and unfortunately, they didn’t. That’s that.

Laenor and Corlys accepted the situation, because they understood what it would cost them all if they didn’t. This whole thing was on their heads. They provided the heir to the throne with a husband incapable of reproducing. It was not Rhaenyra’s fault.

As such, the children were recognized as Velaryons by the father (Laenor), the Lord of Driftmark (Corlys) and the King (Viserys). And these are the only opinions which matter. No one can prove that the boys didn’t inherit Baratheon and/or Arryn genes. Legally, Jacaerys, Lucerys and Joffrey are the sons of Rhaenyra and Laenor.

When it comes to the Iron Throne, it doesn’t matter who fathered Rhaenyra’s children, as long as they are hers. She is the ruling Queen. And we have no way of knowing how things would have gone down after Rhaenyra became Queen. Daemon had two sons of his own. He could have managed to convince Rhaenyra to acknowledge Jacaerys, Lucerys and Joffrey as bastards and then legitimize them, since she has the power to do so. If the boys wouldn’t have been accepted by the Realm (unlikely), there is also the possibility that Rhaenyra could have decided to pass the succession to her and Daemon’s children. Rhaenyra had legitimate heirs who could have taken the throne after her death.

As for Driftmark, despite greedy Vaemond’s ramblings, the succession was just fine. The Velaryon line would have continued through the marriage between Lucerys and Rhaena.

Lucerys had the Velaryon name and Rhaena had the Velaryon blood. Their children would have had the Velaryon name and blood. Problem solved.

People need to stop acting as through Vaemond was some sort of crusader, demanding “justice” for his House. He was just as much of an upstart as the Hightowers and he wanted to take Corlys’ power for himself, and so he took advantage of some rumors to discredit Rhaenyra’s children and advance himself.

Things are not black and white, and given Rhaenyra’s nearly impossible situation, exceptions can be made. And these exceptions wouldn’t have affected neither the succession of Driftmark nor that of the Seven Kingdoms.

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Some thoughts about the physics, energetics and evolution of ASOIAF dragons

Right up-front: There is nothing unphysical about dragons being capable of flight, as the maximum size of a flying animal depends on gravity and air density. Even with Earth-like parameters for both, we did have Quetzalcoatlus northropi with a wingspan of 10-11 metres and was almost certainly capable of flight. Change gravity or air density and you can get dragons much larger than that, and while e.g Bran's fall implies that Planetos' gravity isn't much lower than Earth, we don't have many constraints for air density. If we assume that Balerion the Black Dread had a wingspan of 250m as one estimate puts it, an atmosphere 25 times denser than Earth would let him/her fly. The square-cube rule predicts that the wing loading (and thus the atmosphere density) increases roughly with the mass/wing area~volume/length squared~length cubed/length squared~length of the animal. Whether the description of ASOIAF is compatible with an atmosphere this dense is a little unclear, especially since we don't know its composition or the properties of the Planetosi star, either. Note that this estimate of 25 might be an underestimate, since Balerion might fly at higher elevations than pterosaurs where the air is thinner.

The body mass is worth noting. Weight estimates of pterosaurs are quite uncertain; for illustration I'll use one study cited by Wikipedia saying that a quetzal with a wingspan of 5m might have weighed 65kg. If you scale this up to a 250m animal you get 65*(250/5)^3=8125 tons, about 50 times larger than a blue whale. Very small dragons might only weigh as much as a person, and thus they wouldn't be able to carry a rider until they reach a wingspan of about 10-20m especially considering the weight of armour.

This naturally raises the question of their food requirements. A blue whale needs a few tons of food every day and that's a low-end estimate, Balerion might need as much as 150 tons daily by that measure, without considering the energy requirements of flight and dragonfire. Sometimes people argue about cold-blooded animals taking less power, but we don't have evidence that Martin's dragons are cold-blooded, and going by AWOIAF at least both their bodies and blood are hot.

However, it is a mistake to assume that just because dragons eat, their food is also their energy source. Even in the real world, photoheterotrophy (consuming nutrients for growth but sunlight as a power source) is a widespread mode of metabolism; while ASOIAF dragons aren't photosynthetic as far as we can tell their association with volcanoes (e.g Dany and Quentyn associated a smell of sulfur to dragons) and fire magic might imply that they tap into geothermal power via magic. This would reduce their food requirements to these needed to grow a dragon's body, while an essentially unlimited power source is available for flight and dragonfire.

One last thought is how dragons evolved. Given that they have to burn meat before eating it and the linkage to volcanoes, I think it's quite likely that the precursors of dragons evolved the use of symbiotic bacteria to digest sulfur and charcoal available in volcanoes - akin to giant tube worms in the real world. At some point they evolved to use fire magic as a power source, allowing the development of larger fire wyrms and the utilization of dragonflame to convert meat into charcoal. Eventually some of them evolved flight, perhaps by crossbreeding with quetzal-sized wyverns as Septon Barth posited. Firewyrm magically-powered bodies plus a wyvern body plan gives large flyable dragons. Apparently dragons never re-evolved the ability to digest meat without burning it first.

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POV characters for a prequel about the Dance of the Dragons

A thought experiment: Who would make good POV characters for such a story?

To begin, who does not become a POV character. Kings, first of all; the ASOIAFverse isn't about the Great Men of history. Rather, POVs are women, upjumped criminals, physically impaired people and so on. That eliminates both Viseryses and Aegons, not that the younger two would have much to contribute as POVs. On the flipside, it suggests Nettles as a POV; a street child and daughter of a sex worker is a social class that we haven't seen before and she can cover the Sowing of the Seeds and Daemon Targaryen.

Schemers like Varys and Littlefinger also don't work b/c they'd spoil the stories. Thus the Caltrops, Otto Hightower's conspiracy and the people that arranged Aegon II's assassination are out, too. Daemon and Mysaria too would be problematic in this aspect. However, we need a POV at the pre-Dance court and that suggests Lyman Beesbury akin to Eddard Stark, especially since he (as Master of Coin) can cover the economy of Westeros, important to Rhaenyra's downfall and a generally underilluminated aspect of the ASOIAFverse.

Queens however, ruling (like Daenerys) or consort (like Cersei), are fair game. Westeros is quite sexist, opening avenues for discussion of the unique challenges they face. That gives us Helaena Targaryen as the initial POV on the Greens, akin to Catelyn. Alicent is a schemer, after Helaena's death she doesn't contribute much and before she's redundant to Helaena in non-political aspects. So I wouldn't give her a POV. Heirs rather than actual rulers are also in the running, as we see from Bran brother of King Robb in ASOIAF; this gives us Daeron the Daring, Aemond Targaryen and Rhaenyra's three elder sons. I'll note about them after the following paragraph.

Rhaenyra herself is a tough case. The story of the Dance is to a large degree her story, female rulers are allowed and a Cersei-like writeup has potential. Also, I am not sure that there would be other POVs following her all the time, unless we make Joffrey Velaryon the initial POV and introduce Rhaenyra only after he dies. On the other hand, the parentage of her sons isn't meant to be blatantly obvious the way Cersei's children aren't Robert's. I tend to include Rhaenyra Targaryen as a POV, with careful writing around the parentage questions.

The seven princes that don't become kings (Rhaenyra's three elder sons, Helaena's two sons and two brothers other than Aegon) are a special case, as they are technically allowed but would tend to draw too much focus. I tend to proceed by elimination and thus make Jacaerys Velaryon a POV, as he covers the broadest ground - diplomatic mission, dragonrider, possible bastardry, the Sowing and the Gullet. Jaehaerys and Maelor are a little too young, a psycho like Aemond doesn't strike me as a good POV and spectacular battle scenes aren't the point, Joffrey and Lucerys cover less ground and have some redundancy to other POVs. Daeron is in a similar position, but he has a bit of spoiler potential at the Honeywine and operates mostly with an army unlike Jace's solo operations. So I'd cover him and the Reach Greens with a nameless but idealistic Reach soldier, who devolves over time into the savagery at display in Tumbleton - emblematic for the course of the war in general.

For the Riverlands theatre, there are a number of events and battles and not many characters that span them all. Not helping is also that for some candidates we don't know where they were for parts of the war (e.g Alysanne Blackwood, Humfrey Bracken, Raylon Rivers, Sabitha Frey). Closest is probably Benjicot Blackwood, even conceding that Martin tends to favour the Blackwoods overmuch. Alysanne Blackwood and Sabitha Frey are probably next. Going by AWOIAF - I don't have a copy of Fire and Blood at hand - it seems like the Blackwoods aren't the good guys; apparently they initiated the hostilities with the Brackens and committed religious persecution. A Blackwood POV would probably look a bit like Jaime Lannister, with religious prejudice. On the Greens' side, we need a POV for Rook's Rest, Aemond's campaign and maybe the Butcher's Ball; I sort of think to continue the tradition of Kingsguard and Hand of the King POVs and go with a "bad guy" POV, that is Criston Cole, but only introduce him after Aegon II's accession and have him cover the coup retrospectively. And his assassination at a parley, which is somewhat iffy as far as proper conduct in war goes.

That leaves two further theatres. For the Lannister operations, given their ignominious end at the Fishfeed and the way the Ironborn contribution has been neglected, I'd give the nod to Johanna Lannister. She can also cover the post-war and a discussion of women in charge who aren't the actual ruler, akin to Tyrion. For the Baratheon operations, Borros Baratheon might work for Aegon II's second rule, the Vulture King and whatever Dorne's contributions were and the events of Shipbreaker's Bay, but he's a high noble without much to distinguish him. Well, some discussion of diplomacy as seen from its targets and possibly of the (bad) pre-Dance Green might be warranted, since we don't really understand why some houses joined a side. The Four Storms might contribute to the discussion of using women as political chesspieces, and Gyldayn's framing is very sexist, but unless one of them accompanied her father I'd default to Borros Baratheon.

I am on two minds about Gaemon Palehair. On the one hand, as a child companion and servant to kings he covers another aspect of society and he'd make a good POV for the Moon of the Three Kings and Aegon III personally. On the other hand, a 4-year old child really would only work as a "camera that walks" akin to Areo Hotah. Another fence case is Daemon Targaryen; the rogue prince might have an interesting interiority, and the fights at Harrenhal might be interesting, but he's also a schemer, there are other POV characters around him (and Gyldayn in canon) and once again fight scenes really aren't the main point of the ASOIAFverse. I'd have Gaemon Palehair as POV and keep Daemon non-POV.

That leaves us with 11 POVs: Benjicot Blackwood, Borros Baratheon, Criston Cole, Gaemon Palehair, Helaena Targaryen, Jacaerys Velaryon, Johanna Lannister, Lyman Beesbury, Nettles, Rhaenyra Targaryen and Unnamed Reach soldier.

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The two towers (prophecies) of ASOIAF, with a consideration about arbitrary prophecy interpretations

From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. . . . mother of dragons, slayer of lies 

This is the third of the HOTU "slayer of lies" prophecies, and the least clear one. Often, people think it refers to the stone dragons Melisandre wants to awake, Jon Snow's parentage or Jon Connington's greyscale.

Here's the problem with interpreting the smokeless Tower of Joy, the volcano Dragonstone or the castles Winterfell or Griffin's Roost as a "smoking tower": If Daenerys is seeing a non-smoking tower as smoking, or calling a castle a tower, how can we trust any of her narration? If a castle is a tower, then is the sword actually a torch? The crowd just one person? How can anyone discern a meaning in something this ambiguous? This wouldn't be a prophecy anymore, but meaningless drivel. Especially since the first "lie" - Stannis as Azor Ahai - is discussed as such in-story by Jon Snow, Maester Aemon and Melisandre, and is actually quite straightforward, making it improbable that the "smoking tower" is a castle or a mountain. (There are additional problems with these interpretations)

Euron Greyjoy is an oft-cited candidate, and he actually fits most requirements. As we see from the Aeron TWOW chapter and Samwell's last AFFC chapter (the sigil on the sunken ship is Euron's), he is preparing to attack Oldtown, which features a prominent tower with a beacon fire (AFFC prologue), the Hightower. Also, in AFFC Euron says that as a boy he dreamed he could fly (c.f Bran's coma-dreams) and that "Perhaps we can fly. All of us. How will we ever know unless we leap from some tall tower?" - perhaps he leaps/takes wing from the Hightower? Aeron TWOW has visions in which Euron is "no longer human" and wearing something called "scale armour" - stone beast. And he is seeking Daenerys('s dragons) so he has a connection to her. The "breathing shadow fire" part however is problematic; Shade of the Evening isn't a smoke and the Horn of Joramun "waking giants from the earth" according to TWOIAF refers to earthquakes not any kind of fire. Dust clouds from collapsing buildings as "shadow fire" is far-fetched.

Then the towers by the sea, crumbling as the dark tide came sweeping over them, rising from the depths.

"If it comes, that attack will be no more than a diversion. I saw towers by the sea, submerged beneath a black and bloody tide. That is where the heaviest blow will fall."

"Eastwatch?"

Was it? Melisandre had seen Eastwatch-by-the-Sea with King Stannis. That was where His Grace left Queen Selyse and their daughter Shireen when he assembled his knights for the march to Castle Black. The towers in her fire had been different, but that was oft the way with visions. "Yes. Eastwatch, my lord."

This is from Melisandre's POV chapter. Most interpretations of this vision disagree with her that the "towers by the sea" is Eastwatch, given her habit of confusing similar-looking things - e.g Alys Karstark for Arya, Renly's armour for Renly. Moreover, the black and bloody tide is associated with prophecies and visions involving the Ironborn - Moqorro sees an one-eyed kraken (Euron Greyjoy) on a sea of blood, Aeron sees Ironborn ships burning on a boiling blood-red sea and Jojen Reed's green dreams of Winterfell being submerged by a tide. That has nothing to do with the Wall.

So, many people read this vision as referring to Euron and his aforementioned attack on Oldtown. Euron has moved on from the Iron Islands, so Pyke and Ten Towers aren't plausible candidates. Nothing places Ironborn currently at Harrenhal, never mind that numerous characters refer to its towers having a characteristic melted appearance that Melisandre presumably would have remarked upon. The Shields and Oldtown itself aren't a collection of towers, it's the same problem as "smoking tower" meaning castle or non-smoking tower.

That leaves two possible identities for the "towers by the sea":

The Citadel, which the AFFC prologue says has multiple towers. They are however "upriver", not on the sea, and have domes too.

Three Towers, the castle south of Oldtown on the Whispering Sound that also faces the Arbor and is mentioned in Samwell's AFFC chapters. According to Aeron TWOW, Euron is setting sail from an island close to the Arbor and preparing for battle against the Redwyne and Oldtown navies, so the fleets will likely meet close to Three Towers.

One thing not often remarked upon is that it's not "Then some towers by the sea". It's "Then the towers by the sea". To me, it sounds like Melisandre has seen this vision before, explaining why she speaks of a bloody sea even though the vision we see doesn't mention blood. I actually think Melisandre is right when she says that it's where the heaviest blow will fall - the vision appeared multiple times because the "towers by the sea" are A Big Deal. Whatever Euron or whoever is intending there will have huge reverberations.

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A thought on Black supporters during the book!Dance

I kind of wonder if the Riverlandish, Vale and Northern support for Rhaenyra might be motivated by the Greens neglecting the three northern kingdoms before the Dance.

One thing that jumps out to me is that Otto Hightower's council has only one Riverlander - Larys Strong, and I am not sure if Harrenhal is part of the Riverlands rather than the Crownlands - and no one from the Vale and the North. The Kingsguard at Viserys I's death too seems to lack personnel from these regions, while the Reach, Stormlands and Westerlands (e.g Tyland Lannister) are well represented. At least AWOIAF doesn't seem to know of any of Alicent's children visiting the three northern kingdoms before the Dance.

By contrast, not only did Rhaenyra partake in a royal progress there, when the war erupted her emissaries (Daemon and Jace) were the first ones to visit the three northern kingdoms. It thus stands to reason that the North, the Vale and many Riverlanders would resent the Greens b/c of the lack of attention & court appointments and be favourably disposed at Daemon's and Jace's entreaties, quite aside from the first-mover advantage.

The mechanics of Aegon II's coronation probably didn't do him any favours, either. Rhaenyra is held out as the heir for years, and suddenly as soon as Viserys dies someone else ascends the Iron Throne? I expect a lot of people to think "palace coup". If the actual events - Otto's violent purge in King's Landing and Criston's and Alicent's actions - were well-known, even more so. We know that both Cregan Stark and Jeyne Arryn had to deal with usurpation attempts; I dare say they would be less than impressed by the underhanded methods. The Greens' approach may also be seen as a precedent for succession being decided by fait accompli, risking succession wars and disorder. The Riverlands historically have been unstable, so this worry might have been amplified there.

The coda/TL;DR is that Otto Hightower and the Greens were so focused with King's Landing politics that they neglected the world outside, especially north of Harrenhal, and how they would be perceived there.