#Valeri Gerasimov

[rcvandenboogaard]

Modern land met middeleeuwse leiders

Wat voor soort land wordt Rusland? Die vraag is niet heel makkelijk te beantwoorden. In het publieke debat ontbreekt het niet aan stellige beweringen: Rusland is een Burkina Faso met kernwapens; Rusland is een land dat altijd de prooi zal zijn aan zijn eigen mythes van imperium en morele superioriteit; waar de slavenmentaliteit altijd de overhand zal hebben boven democratische tendenzen…

[generaldavila]

GUERRA DE UCRANIA 4: RELEVO EN EL MANDO RUSO General de División (R.) Rafael Dávila Álvarez

GUERRA DE UCRANIA 4: RELEVO EN EL MANDO RUSO General de División (R.) Rafael Dávila Álvarez

Por lo que veo en el terreno, todo es posible (Jenofonte V) En la guerra cualquier noticia es analizada para convertirse, una vez valorada y extraídas sus consecuencias, en inteligencia. La estadounidense lo hace ahora con los repentinos cambios que Putin ha introducido entre los mandos militares al frente de la invasión de Ucrania. Comprobada la veracidad de la información hay que valorarla. Son…

[quotes-by-dilanka]

Wars are no longer declared, and once they have begun, they do not proceed according to the pattern we are accustomed to.

—General Gerasimov

[memenewsdotcom]

Russia switches leaders in Ukraine

Russia switches leaders in Ukraine

[majestativa]

The voices [...] within these fragmented walls and vaults.

— Mikhail Yeryomin, Selected Poems: 1957-2009, for Valery Gerasimov, (2014)

[tomorrowusa]

Some of Putin's highest ranking generals have gone missing – and it's not because Ukraine has eliminated them as it previously had done to a host of other senior Russian officers.

Valery Gerasimov, Russia's top general, has not appeared in public or on state TV since the aborted mutiny on Saturday when mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin demanded Gerasimov be handed over. He has not been mentioned in a defence ministry press release since June 9 either. Gerasimov, 67, is the commander of Russia's war in Ukraine, and the holder of one of Russia's three "nuclear briefcases," according to some Western military analysts. Absent from view too is General Sergei Surovikin, nicknamed "General Armageddon" by the Russian press for his aggressive tactics in the Syrian conflict, who is deputy commander of Russian forces in Ukraine. A New York Times report, based on a U.S. intelligence briefing, said on Tuesday he had advance knowledge of the mutiny and that Russian authorities were checking if he was complicit.

And with Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin currently in exile in Belarus, that means Putin's old crony Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and a bunch of less experienced officers are left running the war.

Rybar, an influential channel on the Telegram messaging application run by a former Russian defence ministry press officer, said a purge was underway. [ ... ] "The armed insurgency by the Wagner private military company has become a pretext for a massive purge in the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces," said Rybar. Such a move, if confirmed, could alter the way Russia wages its war in Ukraine — which it calls a "special military operation" — and cause turmoil in the ranks at a time when Moscow is trying to stymie a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Purges are sort of a Russian tradition since Stalin's time.

Another Putin crony may now be on the rise.

Viktor Zolotov, head of the National Guard who used to be Putin's bodyguard, appears to be another beneficiary after appearing in public to say his men were ready to "stand to the death" to defend Moscow from Wagner. He has spoken of the possibility of getting heavy weaponry and tanks for his forces in the wake of the mutiny.

Considering that Russia's supply of tanks is badly depleted due to the war, Zolotov shouldn't hold his breath. Maybe Putin will let him use that World War II tank which was the only Russian tank seen in Moscow's annual Victory Day parade.

Dictators place loyalty above everything. Putin may retreat even further into his shrinking circle of cronies.

[channeledhistory]

[follow-up-news]

In a brazen attack that caught Russia off-guard, Ukraine’s military has sent a large ground force across its border and into western Russia. The Ukrainian soldiers crossed the country's northeastern border Tuesday and now appear to be several miles inside Russia’s Kursk region, where they are operating in several villages. Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of Russia's general staff, said in a Kremlin briefing Wednesday that some 1,000 Ukrainian troops were taking part, backed by dozens of armored vehicles. Russia has sent reinforcements in an attempt to drive the Ukrainians back across the border. Russian leader Vladimir Putin listened to the assessment with a look that appeared to be a mixture of impatience and disgust. He called the Ukrainian incursion a "large-scale provocation." Ukraine has previously backed Russian exiles who carried out limited cross-border raids, but has never conducted its own operation on such a scale. Ukraine is not commenting on the current developments, and many details remain sketchy. In an interview with NPR, Mykhailo Podolak, one of the top advisers to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, declined to provide any specifics.

[ukrainenews]

(This situation is very much a developing thing and there's a lot of conflicting and wrong information out there right now. I know I've been absent lately, but I'm keeping an eye on things.)

Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Saturday his Wagner fighters had crossed the border into Russia from Ukraine and were prepared to go "all the way" against Moscow's military, hours after the Kremlin accused him of armed mutiny.

As a long-running standoff between Prigozhin and the military top brass appeared to come to a head, Russia's FSB security service opened a criminal case against him, TASS news agency said. It called on the Wagner private military company forces to ignore his orders and arrest him.

Wagner fighters had entered the southern Russian city of Rostov, Prigozhin said in an audio recording posted on Telegram. He said he and his men would destroy anyone who stood in their way.

Prigozhin earlier said, without providing evidence, that Russia's military leadership had killed a huge number of his troops in an air strike and vowed to punish them.

He said his actions were not a military coup. But in a frenzied series of audio messages, in which the sound of his voice sometimes varied and could not be independently verified, he appeared to suggest that his 25,000-strong militia was en route to oust the leadership of the defence ministry in Moscow.

Security was stepped up on Friday night at government buildings, transport facilities and other key locations in Moscow, TASS reported, citing a source at a security service.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was getting around-the-clock updates, TASS said, while the White House said it was monitoring the situation and would consult with allies.

Kyiv, meanwhile, said the major thrust in its counteroffensive against Moscow's invasion had yet to be launched. "The main blow is still to come," Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar told Ukrainian television.

A top Ukrainian general reported "tangible successes" in advances in the south - one of two main theatres of operations, along with eastern Ukraine.

'OBEY PRESIDENT,' GENERAL SAYS

The deputy commander of Russia's Ukraine campaign, General Sergei Surovikin, told Wagner fighters to obey Putin, accept Moscow's commanders and return to their bases. He said political deterioration would play into the hands of Russia's enemies.

"I urge you to stop," Surovikin said in a video posted on Telegram, his right hand resting on a rifle.

The standoff, many of the details of which remained unclear, looked like the biggest domestic crisis Putin has faced since he sent thousands of troops into Ukraine in February last year.

Prigozhin, a one-time Putin ally, in recent months has carried out an increasingly bitter feud with Moscow. Earlier on Friday, he appeared to cross a new line, saying the Kremlin's rationale for invading Ukraine, which it calls a "special military operation," was based on lies by the army's top brass.

Wagner led Russia's capture of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut last month, Russia's biggest victory in 10 months, and Prigozhin has used its battlefield success to criticise the leadership of the defense ministry with seeming impunity - until now.

For months, he has openly accused Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russia's top general, Valery Gerasimov, of incompetence.

Army Lieutenant-General Vladimir Alekseyev issued a video appeal in which he asked Prigozhin to reconsider his actions. "Only the president has the right to appoint the top leadership of the armed forces, and you are trying to encroach on his authority," he said.

UKRAINE SAYS MAJOR THRUST AHEAD

On the ground in Ukraine, at least three people were killed in Russian attacks on Friday, including two who died after a trolleybus company came under fire in the city of Kherson, regional officials said.

Addressing the pace of the Ukrainian advances, several senior officials on Friday sent the clearest signal so far that the main part of the counteroffensive has not yet begun.

"I want to say that our main force has not been engaged in fighting yet, and we are now searching, probing for weak places in the enemy defences. Everything is still ahead," the Guardian quoted Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of Ukraine's ground forces, as saying in an interview with the British newspaper.

General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of Ukraine's "Tavria," or southern front, wrote on Telegram: "There have been tangible successes of the Defence Forces and in advances in the Tavria sector."

Tarnavskyi said Russian forces had lost hundreds of men and 51 military vehicles in the past 24 hours, including three tanks and 14 armoured personnel carriers.

Although the advances Ukraine has reported this month are its first substantial gains on the battlefield for seven months, Ukrainian forces have yet to push to the main defensive lines that Russia has had months to prepare.

[captainofthetidesbreath]

It's SO annoying people keep saying Valery and Katya are siblings just because the first draft of the script gives her maiden name as Michailova. That version of the script has Valery's as Gerasimov (not Michailov like in the final film). They clearly changed it by the time they were shooting, and Katya's maiden name isn't mentioned at all in the final film or the shooting script. Katya even says to Valery "your parents", like wouldn't she say "our parents"?

It's just so annoying to watch this become popular fanon when it's totally outdated and outright contradicted by the film. I don't know why everyone just latched onto it. Like, is it because people find Valery threatening to the popular ships? Like, I'm a Valery/Katya shipper, so you can trust me when I say that he isn't a threat at all. The fact that it can never happen is the appeal of Valery/Katya, like, literally, he's not a threat to the fan favorite ship. (Valery/Katya and Katya/Sofia actually enhance each other, they can and do coexist.) You all don't need to use non-canon shit to justify shipping something else, have some faith in yourself.

[argumate]

The Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military’s most combat effective units and formations and appears to be accelerating this effort.

The reported dismissal and arrest of commanders leading combat effective units and formations appears to be associated with cases of insubordination. Popov flagrantly attempted to bypass Russian Chief of the General Staff and overall theater commander Army General Valery Gerasimov and directly bring his complaints about the frontline in western Zaporizhia to Russian President Vladimir Putin. A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Seliverstov’s dismissal was a result of similar insubordination, and Russian sources claimed that Seliverstov had a reputation for speaking up on behalf of his soldiers. Kornev may have voiced criticism of a host of potential issues on behalf of the 7th VDV Division, including the likely failure to be notified beforehand about the Russian destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station (KHPP) on June 6, reported attritional fighting that failed to eliminate a Ukrainian presence near the Antonivsky Bridge, or conditions in western Zaporizhia Oblast similar to those that Popov complained about. Ibatullin’s arrest may be associated with the 90th Tank Division’s resumption of assaults in Luhansk Oblast, where it conducted widespread offensive operations that failed to achieve territorial gains during the Russian 2023 winter offensive campaign. It is unclear why Ibatullin would have been arrested, if, indeed, he was, when the other commanders were reportedly simply removed from their commands.

Insubordination among commanders appears to be spreading to some of their soldiers. Russian milbloggers shared an audio excerpt on July 16 in which the alleged elements of the 7th VDV Division threatened that they would withdraw from their positions in occupied Kherson Oblast if the Russian MoD arrests Teplinsky or threatens his life. The elements of the 7th VDV Division also claimed that they would defend Teplinsky against the Russian MoD and asserted that the high command is targeting Russia’s most combat effective commanders. This audio appeal, if legitimate, is a threat of mass desertion in the face of the enemy on behalf of Teplinsky. Desertion in the face of the enemy is a capital offense in many militaries. The VDV servicemen are blackmailing the Russian MoD to ensure that Teplinsky continues to command troops in Ukraine, despite Teplinsky’s previous affiliation with Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin who had led an armed rebellion on June 24 to overthrow Shoigu and Gerasimov.

The Kremlin’s chronic disregard for the Russian chain of command is likely hindering Shoigu and Gerasimov in their attempts to suppress insubordination and establish full control over the Russian military in Ukraine. Putin consistently bypassed or ignored the established chain of command in hopes of securing rapid successes on the battlefield throughout the war, degrading Shoigu’s and Gerasimov’s authority – especially when military failures on the frontlines also eroded their reputations. Putin had cultivated an environment in which military personnel, officials, and even Russian war correspondents bypassed Shoigu and Gerasimov to present Putin their understandings of the current state of the war and recommendations for what to do. It is unusual but not unique for a commander in chief to solicit views on the war from outside experts. It is more problematic, although still not unique, for a commander in chief to solicit the views of subordinates opposed to senior leadership directly. But allowing a quasi-military commander such as Prigozhin to conduct his own campaign parallel but not subordinate to the one being executed by the formal chain of command is extraordinarily unusual and badly corrosive of the authority of the formal military leadership.

Putin also established the Russian MoD as the scapegoat for all Russian military failures, which saddled Shoigu and Gerasimov with a reputation for incompetence and failure that they are unlikely to repair. ISW previously assessed that Putin regularly grants and withdraws his support for different commanders in hopes generating rapid improvements in Russia’s military fortunes but without always doing so formally. Shoigu and Gerasimov likely expected that Putin would restore their full authority over the Russian military’s decision-making processes given their loyalty to him after Wagner’s armed rebellion on June 24. Putin, however, has clearly not done so.  He has instead followed his normal pattern of seeking to divert backlash away from himself and rotating commanders instead of outright dismissing them. Intensifying insubordination and widespread outrage in response to the ongoing officer purge may force the Kremlin to reconsider its partial backing for Shoigu and Gerasimov in the wake of Wagner’s rebellion.

Russian commanders are likely setting information conditions to prevent the Russian MoD from punishing them for their insubordination by promoting narratives among Russian servicemembers along the front and thereby risking widespread demoralization.

The apparent crisis in the Russian chain of command and the corresponding morale effects it may produce will likely degrade Russian capabilities to conduct tactical offensive operations that are critical to the Russian elastic defense in southern Ukraine.

snippets from recent ISW updates, this isn't even relating to the Ukrainian offensive, it's all Russian-on-Russian violence

[darkmaga-retard]

Russia should respond to Kiev’s attempted incursion in Kursk Region by taking over land that Moscow currently recognizes as Ukraine, former President Dmitry Medvedev has suggested.

The Ukrainian military initiated a cross-border raid involving some 1,000 troops this week, which has so far claimed five civilian lives and left over 30 others wounded in Russia. The operation has largely been thwarted by the Russian army and border guards, Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov reported on Wednesday. He estimated Ukrainian casualties at 315, including 100 killed in action.

“From this moment, the special military operation should become openly exterritorial in nature,” Medvedev, who serves as deputy chair of the Russian Security Council, argued in a post on Thursday.

“We can and should go further into what still exists as Ukraine. To Odessa, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Nikolaev. To Kiev and further. There should be no restrictions in terms of recognized borders,” he explained.

[plethoraworldatlas]

The International Criminal Court on Tuesday issued arrest warrants for Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russian Armed Forces Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov for allegedly ordering attacks on civilians during the ongoing invasion and occupation of Ukraine.

The ICC announced that its Pre-Trial Chamber II issued the warrants for Shoigu and Gerasimov for the alleged war crimes of "directing attacks at civilian objects" and "causing excessive incidental harm to civilians or damage to civilian objects," as well as the crime against humanity of "inhumane acts."

"Pre-Trial Chamber II considered that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the two suspects bear responsibility for missile strikes carried out by the Russian armed forces against the Ukrainian electric infrastructure from at least October 10, 2022 until at least March 9, 2023," the court said. "During this time frame, a large number of strikes against numerous electric power plants and substations were carried out by the Russian armed forces in multiple locations in Ukraine."

[toscanoirriverente]

Ukraine pierces Russian border near major gas transmission hub

Russian military bloggers reported intense battles with some suggesting that Ukraine had opened a new front. Ukraine has not commented on the battles. Russia sent reserves to help shore up Russian defences.

The chief of Russia's general staff, Valery Gerasimov, told Putin that Russian forces were battling Ukrainian forces near the border and that Russia would push them back to the border.

Russia's defence ministry it had already destroyed 50 armoured vehicles, including seven tanks, eight armoured personnel carriers, three infantry fighting vehicles and 31 armoured combat vehicles in the area.

Putin said Ukrainian forces were firing "indiscriminately" at a range of civilian targets in the region, and said that he would shortly have a meeting with top defence ministry and Federal Security Service officials.

Both Kyiv and Moscow say they do not target civilians in the war, triggered by Russia's full-scale invasion nearly two and a half years ago.

Russian Telegram channels carried unverified footage of shelled houses. Alexei Smirnov, the acting governor of the Kursk region, said there were casualties but gave no exact toll, and called on citizens to donate blood.

Forces describing themselves as voluntary paramilitaries fighting on Ukraine's side penetrated parts of Belgorod and Kursk region this year, triggering a major push by Russian troops to carve out a buffer zone in Ukraine's northeast.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-keeps-up-air-attacks-russias-kursk-regional-governor-says-2024-08-07/

[warningsine]

President Vladimir Putin vowed Saturday to defend Russia against an armed rebellion by mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led his troops out of Ukraine and into a key city south of Moscow.

The uprising, which Putin called “a stab in the back,” was the biggest threat to his leadership in over two decades in power.

The private army led by Prigozhin appears to control the military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, a city 660 miles (over 1,000 kilometers) south of Moscow that runs Russian offensive operations in Ukraine, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said in an intelligence briefing.

In his address, Putin called the uprising by Prigozhin, whom he did not mention by name, a “betrayal” and “treason.”

“All those who prepared the rebellion will suffer inevitable punishment,” Putin said. “The armed forces and other government agencies have received the necessary orders.”

Prigozhin called himself a patriot.

“Regarding the betrayal of the motherland, the president was deeply mistaken. We are patriots of our homeland,” he said in an audio message on his Telegram channel.

He said his fighters would not turn themselves in at the request of Putin, as “we do not want the country to live on in corruption, deceit and bureaucracy.”

Prigozhin’s Wagner private military contractor has been fighting alongside Russian troops in Ukraine. It wasn’t immediately clear what his aims were, but the rebellion marks an escalation in Prigozhin’s struggle with Russian military leaders, who he has accused of botching the war in Ukraine and hamstringing his forces in the field.

“This is not a military coup, but a march of justice,” Prigozhin said.

Prigozhin confirmed Saturday he and his troops reached Rostov-on-Don after crossing the border from Ukraine.

He posted a video of himself at the Russian military headquarters in Rostov and claimed that his forces had taken control of the air field and other military facilities in the city. Other videos posted on social media showed military vehicles, including tanks, on the streets.

Prigozhin said his forces faced no resistance from young conscripts as they crossed into Russia, saying his troops “aren’t fighting against children.”

“But we will destroy anyone who stands in our way,” he said in one of a series of angry video and audio recordings posted on social media beginning late Friday. “We are moving forward and will go until the end.”

Putin condemned the rebellion, which comes at a time when Russia is “fighting the toughest battle for its future” as western governments heap sanctions on Moscow and arm Ukraine.

“The entire military, economic and information machine of the West is waged against us,” Putin said.

Russia’s security services called for Prigozhin’s arrest after he declared an armed rebellion late Friday.

In a sign of how seriously the Kremlin took the threat, authorities declared a “counterterrorist regime” in Moscow and its surroundings, allowing restricted freedoms and enhancing security in the capital.

It was not immediately clear how Prigozhin was able to enter the southern Russian city or how many troops he had with him.

Prigozhin said his aim was to punish Defense Minister Sergei Shogun after Russian government forces attacked Wagner field camps in Ukraine with rockets, helicopter gunships and artillery.

Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff, ordered the attacks following a meeting with Shoigu at which they decided to destroy Wagner, Prigozin said. He said Wagner’s forces shot down a Russian military helicopter that fired on a civilian convoy, but there was no independent confirmation.

Prigozhin said he had 25,000 troops under his command and urged the army not to offer resistance.

After Putin’s address, in which the Russian leader didn’t mention concrete steps to suppress the rebellion but rather called for unity in the face of the revolt, officials and state media personalities in the country sought to publicly reiterate their allegiance to the Kremlin and urged Prigozhin to back down.

Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of Russia’s lower house of parliament, the State Duma, said that the Duma lawmakers “stand for the consolidation of forces″ and support Putin, adding that “Wagner fighters must make the only right choice: to be with their people, on the side of the law, to protect the security and future of the Motherland, to follow the orders of the Commander-in-Chief.”

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova echoed Volodin’s sentiment and said in a Telegram post that “we have one commander in chief. Not two, not three. One.″

Ramzan Kadyrov, the strongman leader of the Chechnya region who used to side with Prigozhin in his criticism of the military leadership, also expressed his full support of “every word of” Putin.

“We have the commander in chief, elected by the people, who knows the situation to the slightest detail better than any strategist and businessman,” Kadyrov said. “The mutiny needs to be suppressed.”

While the outcome of the confrontation was still unclear, it appeared likely to further hinder Moscow’s war effort as Kyiv’s forces were probing Russian defenses in the initial stages of a counteroffensive. The dispute, especially if Prigozhin were to prevail, also could have repercussions for Putin and his ability to maintain a united front.

The Wagner forces have played a crucial role in Ukraine, succeeding in taking the eastern city of Bakhmut, where the bloodiest and longest battles have taken place. But Prigozhin has increasingly criticized Russia’s military brass, accusing it of incompetence and of starving his troops of weapons and ammunition.

Heavy military trucks and armored vehicles were seen in several parts of central Moscow early Saturday, and soldiers toting assault rifles were deployed outside the main building of the Defense Ministry. The area around the presidential administration near Red Square was blocked, snarling traffic.

But even with the heightened military presence, downtown bars and restaurants were filled with customers. At one club near the headquarters of the FSB, people were dancing in the street near the entrance.

Prigozhin, whose feud with the Defense Ministry dates back years, had refused to comply with a requirement that military contractors sign contracts with the ministry before July 1. In a statement Friday, he said he was ready to find a compromise but “they have treacherously cheated us.”

“Today they carried out a rocket strike on our rear camps, and a huge number of our comrades got killed,” Prigozhin said. The Defense Ministry denied attacking the Wagner camps.

“The evil embodied by the country’s military leadership must be stopped,” he shouted.

Col. Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the deputy commander of the Russian group of forces fighting in Ukraine, urged the Wagner forces to stop any move against the army, saying it would play into the hands of Russia’s enemies, who are “waiting to see the exacerbation of our domestic political situation.”

In Washington, the Institute for the Study of War said “the violent overthrow of Putin loyalists like Shoigu and Gerasimov would cause irreparable damage to the stability of Putin’s perceived hold on power.”

At the White House, National Security Council spokesperson Adam Hodge said: “We are monitoring the situation and will be consulting with allies and partners on these developments.”