#Ukraine total capitulation

[wherepond]

Sergey Karaganov Ukraine total capitulation

Sergey Karaganov told Steve Rosenberg 'best possible outcome is Ukraine's total capitulation'

The BBC’s Russia Editor Steve Rosenberg has been speaking to political scientist and former Kremlin advisor Sergey Karaganov.

While US President Donald Trump pushes Russia and Ukraine for a ceasefire, influential voices in Moscow are calling on the Russian authorities to adopt a hard line. Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested he is ready for a halt in fighting but says "there are nuances" - which he laid out talks with US envoy Steve Witkoff at the Kremlin on Thursday. From the start of this war, Putin has demanded the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine, which is anathema to Kyiv and its allies.

[mariacallous]

February 24th, 2025

Just writing that down feels weird. 

It feels impossible that it has been 3 years since I watched Putin announce Russia’s full scale invasion on TV, and saw the missiles starting to hit, as tanks and troops crossed the border.

On one hand, it feels like it’s been much, much longer and on the other hand, it feels like the blink of an eye. I remember that when this full scale invasion started, no one gave Ukraine a chance. Virtually everyone, especially the analysts, thought it was a foregone conclusion that Ukraine’s military would be defeated, and it would happen quickly.

And the early minutes, hours and days were pure chaos.

I remember the video from Hostomel, where the CNN reporter Matthew Chance found himself in the midst of a russian VDV assault on the airport.

I remember the stories of territorial defense units consisting of teachers, mechanics and other ordinary men taking on russia’s “best” soldiers and battling them out of their towns, like Voznesensk.

I remember seeing videos of Ukrainians courageously standing up to the invaders, throwing sunflowers at them, or literally standing in front of their tanks. 

Ukrainians did everything they could to keep the russians out. Those who could fight, they fought like hell, and those who couldn’t did everything else they could to stop the russian invasion like it was a cancer trying to take over their body.

And the world’s opinion quickly changed. The bravery of the Ukrainian people inspired leader after leader to shift their perspective, adjust their policy and start aggressively supporting Ukraine. Even countries like Germany, which was staunchly against providing weapons, opened their stocks and started to help the Ukrainian Army do the things they needed to do so that ordinary people could exist. 

Ukraine began to beat back the russians and even drove them out in some circumstances, like in Kyiv.

Of course, the russians could not acknowledge that they were losing, and made idiotic statements saying that they did not retreat from Kyiv, but it was a gesture of goodwill. Yes, a gesture of goodwill while they bombed children’s hospitals in other parts of Ukraine, and destroyed entire cities like Mariupol.

I remember thinking, you can see a pathway towards victory. I remember even thinking about how incredible it would be to see the streets across Ukraine filled with people, celebrating the total capitulation of the russian military as it moved back into its own borders.

But then, the pace of aid to Ukraine began stalling, and the russians took advantage of those delays. As Ukrainian troops waited for simple things like artillery shells, the russians used their overwhelming manpower and firepower advantage to make gains. 

They captured important cities like Avdiivka simply because the Ukrainian military did not have what it needed to hold them back. They tried to do it with whatever they had, and countless people gave their lives, but at some point, the sheer number of shells the russians had dictated the results. 

Still the Ukrainian troops fought on. They adapted. They introduced new systems like FPV’s that are now everywhere, bridging the gap, and slowing the pace of russian gains. 

Throughout this war, the Ukrainians have persisted for one reason.

There is no other choice. It’s either fight, or no longer exist. It is not a choice. They are relentless.

Unfortunately, despite all their superhuman work, the ebbs and flows of geopolitics are not on their side right now.

It is honestly unbelievable to write this, but the American President has shown himself to be nothing but pro-russian. His administration is openly working against Ukraine right now, and lying to the American people, as well as the whole world, about the facts of this war. For his part, Elon Musk has shown himself to be one of the worst promoters of fake news on the planet. Through his platform, he is engaging in an ongoing campaign of relentless attacks against Ukraine, galvanizing his followers to hate Ukrainians more everyday. 

But the truth is simple.

Ukraine did not want this war. 

Ukraine did not start this war. 

Ukraine is simply trying to exist, and Vladimir Putin hates that simple fact.

Trump has told us he will not be an ally to Ukraine, or NATO, or anyone that America has built long standing relationships with, even to countries like Canada. He is quickly shaping up to become a dictator, while shamelessly accusing President Zelenskyy of being one.

I don’t think we can underestimate how dangerous his administration’s overtures towards Putin can be for Ukraine (and for all of us eventually) but most importantly for Ukraine right now. 

In the face of this, I encourage you to let your leaders, whoever they may be, know that you are a concerned citizen. Let them know that Ukraine is important to you, and you want to support Ukraine. 

Your single letter, email or phone call may not seem like much, but when there are hundreds, or  thousands, or millions of you doing it together, they can’t ignore it. 

And if you feel discouraged, or you feel like it’s hopeless, I want to leave you with this.

I was messaging one Ukrainain soldier yesterday to ask how he is feeling in the face of all this…

And here was his message.

“I hope we can support those who have lost faith or feel disappointed because our motivation hasn’t changed. We’re fine and we absolutely don’t care. It’s all happened before, it won’t get worse, it’s a new challenge.”

These people will never give up, and neither should we. 

- Christian Borys Founder of Saint Javelin

[taylorscottbarnett]

Reminder:

Trump shielded a Republican ally in congress from domestic abuse charges. Trump's DOJ refused to sign the arrest warrent.

Trump is billing US taxpayers a fortune, above and beyond market rates, to house the Secret Service as he charges taxpayers to vacation at his properties while Trustfund baby Muskrat carves up the US Government to sell off piece-by-peice.

Muskrat goons are stealing access to your data for their own ends.

Meanwhile, his payrolled Congressional GOP are writing bills to gut YOUR healthcare, YOUR

And Republicans in Congress are so incompetent that even with total control they are spiraling towards shutting down the US Government while trying to gut YOUR Social Decurity, Medicaid and Medicare.

Trump continues to feed inflation by hiking taxes on your groceries without oversight.

And attacks US Allies in NATO by threatening withdrawal and more capitulation to Putin despite the fact he'd need to get 67 US Senators to go along with the plan and there's not that many cowards in the upper-chamber.

While his family runs deranged crypto scams, Trump capitulats the US' role as leader of the free world.

What are the GOP doing?

Congressional GOP are canceling town halls because they are scared of their own voters.

And while they are busy being cowards Trump seeks to kickout qualified service members even though the US Army, Navy, and Airforce because he doesn't like the fact they're trans, despite the fact none of these branches have meet recruitment goals since he first got elected in 2016.

Never mind the fact that he himself cheated his way out of the US Draft.

While his cult attacks the scary boogieman trans citizen, while Trump thinks Ukraine will start WWIII despite the fact that a single US carrier group could body the entire Russian Navel Fleet.

[centrally-unplanned]

It is incredibly frustrating to listen to conversations around Russia-Ukraine where people are essentially pretending that "land concessions" are somehow new - virtually all the peace feelers of 2022-2024 (of which there have been many!) were open to that, initially around recognizing Crimea and then later around the newly annexed territories. If Russia had offered lasting peace and like permission for Ukraine to join NATO in exchange at the start of 2024, Ukraine would have taken it. The problem ofc is that Russia has never, ever, offered anything close to that - they want hard demobilizations of Ukraine and bans on any foreign security deals to give them an open hand for future control. They make it very explicit! But now people are inventing a change to give the illusion of progress, in order to justify far more important capitulations.

You can say however that the Ukrainian government has screwed up a bit on this one, because they have maintained public PR-speak around maximalist aims. This is ofc negotiation 101 and war propaganda 101 stuff, and made total sense in 2022. But by 2024 you still had Zelensky saying "the only peace is a forced peace" while public was shifting against him in the US. I can't judge that hard, maybe he was gambling that Biden/Harris would win. And ofc Trump doesn't care, he actively likes Putin because he likes dictators and wants to flex on Ukraine as a fuck-the-libs imperialism move. But it has left them a bit rhetorically flat footed as they have had to pivot towards the actual war aims of "preserving Ukraine's fundamental sovereignty" now that the international picture has radically shifted.

[mask131]

I wanted to make this post last year but I got caught up in events (plus I couldn't find back my sources). But given the recent international events have completely turned away most media's attention from the Russian war on Ukraine, I thought it was finally time to make this post.

Because I want to talk about something truly crazy. Something that shows how deep Russia's distortion, warping and twisting of the Christian religion went - and how back there, we're back to the times of holy inquisitions.

Many people have covered the fact that the propaganda of Putin over Russia isn't just mediatic and politic but also religious. There were many viral reports and TV reports and investigations about how the higher-ups of the Russian Orthodox Church were in Putin's pocket, openly shared Putinist propaganda during their religious offices, declared that the war against Ukraine was a "holy war" that God wanted, that Putin was merely the agent and arm of God - there was this whole thing about the Patriarch blessing the weapons of the Russian soldiers sent to the front, and about him explicitely saying that the Devil and/or the Antichrist was in Ukraine.

But there is something that is even bigger and more shocking than that, and that shows how in Russia war = religion. It is a building: the Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces.

The building of this cathedral started in 2018, but it was only completed in 2020. The cathedral is technically a religious building, but the main reason of its existence is to celebrated the "various military feats of Russia", chief among which - the Russian victory over the Nazis during World War II. The completion of the cathedral was done on the Victory Day celebrating the Soviet Union crushing the Nazis ; and it was opened on the "Day of Remembrance and Sorrow" (a commemoration of when the Nazis turned against the Soviet Union and tried to march over it). There's something about "the resurrection of Christ" in there, but let's be honest, this was built exclusively for and around war.

This building is absolutely grandiose, without a doubt - and its beauty and enormity is a proof of Russia's dedication to its unique mix of religion and military matters. In fact it was considered one of the great monuments of Russia... until the Ukrainian attacks made people reconsider what this symbol ACTUALLY meant.

And the thing with this building is that it was FILLED with carefully-thought war symbolism. For example, take the main dome's diameter: 19,45 meters... To symbolize the year when World War II stopped (1945). [Another source rather claims that the dome's diameter is 22,43 meters but it doesn't change the symbol: the Nazi capitulation was signed at 22h43]. There is a small dome that is 14,18 meters in height - because the conflict between the Nazis and the Soviet Union lasted 1 418 days and nights. And the belfry is 75 meters tall... because 75 years had passed between 2020 and the end of World War II. By the way, did you know that when Russians talk of the end of World War II and how they helped defeat the Nazis, they do not speak of the "World War"? No, they rather speak of "the end of the Great Patriotic War". Because the conflict between the USSR and the Nazis wasn't part of any world conflict, oh no! It was just one specific war against the patry - aka Russia. The total height of the Church is a reference to Saint Vladimir's (the one who Christianized the Rus lands) birth date, etc etc...

Things get better - the steps and floors of the cathedral are made of metal. Metal made from the melted war trophies taken from the Nazis - their weapons an their tanks for example. As such, the Russians will forever walk on the remains of their old ennemies. The church's saints are carefully chosen as the patron-saints of the Russian military: saint Elijah the Prophet, saint Barbara, saint Fyodor Ushakov... All organized in the four sections of the church, each dedicated to a different branch of the army; ground forces, navy, aerospace military and strategic missile forces. There's a lot of depictions of Jesus wielding a sword too.

And then we go to the mosaics... Ah, the mosaics! These mosaics are not about the history of Christianity, but about the military history of Russia, each one depicting a great battle or a great Russian victory. You have several depictions of the orders of the Red Army overthrowing the Imperial forces in Russia, you also have depictions of the Soviet (or Communist) successes during World War II of course - there's the Battle of Stalingrad, there's the Reichstag fire... You also have more recent depictions of soldiers, with a kalashnikov in their hands... And of course, the latest mosaic depicting the latest "Russian military success" at the date of the Cathedral's fundation: the annexation of Crimea.

This mosaic was in fact part of a dual scandal, before while the Cathedral was built, two images were leaked of two intended mosaics - one for the Crimea annexation and one for the (exclusively Soviet of course) victory over the Nazis in World War II (sorry, "The Great Patriotic War"). And the scandal was because on the latter Stalin was depicted, and on the former it was Putin who was on the mosaic. There was a big outcry, and ultimately the artists of the cathedral decided to remove the faces of Putin and Stalin... But not before asking for Putin's opinion first, and then - this is very symbolic - their faces were replaced by icons.

Yeah all of this is kind of overwhelming - but one has to remember that in Russia, the Orthodox Church is on the same level as the various ministeries of Putin. The Patriarch Kirill, who consecrated the cathedral, has as such openly supported Putin's war and politics - invited and present at all of Putin's government meetings alongside his various ministers, the Patiarch has also placed in his sermons the exact same slogans and words used by the televisual Russian propaganda. In spring 2022, he held a whole sermon about how the Russian people had to stand together as brothers again the treacherous and wicked West - and added that the reason the Donbas distrusted the Russian Orthodox Church was because of the "vile phenomenon" of the Gay Pride - and added that it was against the corruption of the West, and the anti-religious "gay propaganda", that Russia was fighting - that it was to eliminate THIS that they threw bombs over Ukraine.

Speaking of that I almost forgot! Very recently the cathedral added a new stained glass to its windows... One made with broken glass shards from Mariupol, collected during the Russian attack.

And let's not forget how the Patriarch promised to absolve all the Russians sent to the front who would die on the battlefield against the Ukrainians (the SAME kind of words that were used in the Middle-Ages for the crusades!) - because, and I quote, "such a sacrifice will cleanse you of all human sin". And at the beginning of 2023 (if I recall well), the Patriarch went as far as to say that if Russia didn't win this war, "someone" (he didn't specify who) but SOMEONE would appear "with the intentions of dominating, and then destroying the world" (aka, the Antichrist). This was later backed up by Dmitry Medvedev, who added that the real goal of the war against Ukrainian was to "stop the supreme leader of Hell" (and this time he dropped names, but several at once - Satan, Lucifer, Iblis).

We are literaly back to medieval crusades and to the crazy witch-hunts. Russian propagandists will stop at nothing to convince people that everything is evil outside of Russia.

"But..." you're going to say, "Not all Orthodox Russian priests can be falling for this crap!". And indeed you are right, there are priests in the Russian Orthodox Church that called out the fact Christianity was about peace, not war. The problem is that the higher-ups of the Church have started a hunt for all priests that advocate for peace rather than war - and they simply kick them out of the Church and revoke their status as priests. The Orthodox priests who refuse to see their faith turned into political propaganda are forced to flee into other Orthodox countries to maintain their status as priests.

[dostoyevsky-official]

Once buoyed by hopes of liberating their lands, even soldiers at the front now voice a desire for negotiations with Russia to end the war. Yuriy, another commander on the eastern front who gave only his first name, says he fears the prospect of a “forever war”.

“I am for negotiations now,” he adds, expressing his concern that his son — also a soldier — could spend much of his life fighting and that his grandson might one day inherit an endless conflict.

[...] Ukraine is heading into what may be its darkest moment of the war so far. It is losing on the battlefield in the east of the country, with Russian forces advancing relentlessly — albeit at immense cost in men and equipment.

It is struggling to restore its depleted ranks with motivated and well-trained soldiers while an arbitrary military mobilisation system is causing real social tension. It is also facing a bleak winter of severe power and potentially heating outages.

[...] At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is under growing pressure from western partners to find a path towards a negotiated settlement, even if there is scepticism about Russia’s willingness to enter talks any time soon and concern that Ukraine’s position is too weak to secure a fair deal right now.

US officials were unimpressed by Zelenskyy’s “victory plan”, which includes requests for massive amounts of western weaponry.

An adviser who helped prepare the document says Zelenskyy had no choice but to restate his insistence on Nato membership because anything else would have been perceived as a retreat on the question of western security guarantees, which Ukrainians see as indispensable.

[...] Although Zelenskyy’s victory plan restated old objectives, its real significance is that it shifts Ukraine’s war aims from total liberation to bending the war in Kyiv’s favour, says the senior Ukrainian official.

Multiple European diplomats who attended last week’s UN General Assembly in New York say there was a tangible shift in the tone and content of discussions around a potential settlement.

They note more openness from Ukrainian officials to discuss the potential for agreeing a ceasefire even while Russian troops remain on their territory, and more frank discussions among western officials about the urgency for a deal.

Ukraine’s new foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, used private meetings with western counterparts on his first trip to the US in the post to discuss potential compromise solutions, the diplomats said, and struck a more pragmatic tone on the possibility of land-for-security negotiations than his predecessor.

“We’re talking more and more openly about how this ends and what Ukraine would have to give up in order to get a permanent peace deal,” says one of the diplomats, who was present in New York. “And that’s a major change from even six months ago, when this kind of talk was taboo.”

[...] The biggest domestic problem for Zelenskyy might come from a nationalist minority opposed to any compromise, some of whom are now armed and trained to fight.

“If you get into any negotiation, it could be a trigger for social instability,” says a Ukrainian official. “Zelenskyy knows this very well.”

“There will always be a radical segment of Ukrainian society that will call any negotiation capitulation. The far right in Ukraine is growing. The right wing is a danger to democracy,” says Merezhko, who is an MP for Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party.

[xslytherclawx-writes]

Hullo! I read your fic plan z (I love jurco sm) and it was so lovely like hhhh I'll be thinking about this later thanks☆, and then went on your account here and one of the first posts I see is that you're radically pro Ukraine??? ♡♡♡ I'm from Ukraine and rarely see people talk about us nowadays (bar the recent developments), so I really appreciate you mentioning it 💌 Thank you so much, both for the support and for indulging my love of rarepairs

Thank you so much!! Honestly I should write more of that ship. It's so fun! I love the contrast of these two very posh boys from utterly different backgrounds with totally different concepts of poshness. (it's just lately other ships have been eating my brain lol)

And yes, I absolutely definitely 100% support Ukraine, and the recent news has me literally shaking mad. Putin is literally the most evil man alive, and (as you know, but for my followers' sake) capitulating to him is not going to do anything but kill even more Ukrainians. Trump doesn't care, because he's in Putin's pocket. Zelenskyy handled that ambush much more gracefully and honorably than I would have ever been capable of.

(And tbf: full disclosure, I am Ukrainian-American; my great-grandparents came over before WWII and my grandparents and mother made sure I was connected to that culture, but I like to think I'd still be radically pro-Ukraine even without that, because it's just the right thing to do/be)

I'm also overall very sick of people (namely: westerners with no connection to these things whatsoever) treating literal wars (with actual human lives at stake!!!) like fandoms. Posting for clout, changing their opinions based on what's "cool", getting more and more radicalized... it's just so stupid and harmful all around.

I was very very glad to see Fandom Trumps Hate still include pro-Ukraine charities this year; that's where my first donation went, without question. (And I'd urge those who won auctions but are still on the fence about where to send their donations to do the same)

Just utterly disgusted with Trump and the US government. All my love to Ukraine, genuinely. ❤️

Дуже дякую & слава україні! 🇺🇦

[yourreddancer]

By Ben Meiselas

MeidasMighty,

What we just witnessed was nothing short of a total betrayal of America’s national security and our allies. Donald Trump stood on the world stage and gave Putin everything he wanted—abandoning Ukraine, tearing apart NATO, and making it clear that his administration is nothing more than a puppet regime for the Kremlin.

I wish I were exaggerating, but I’m not.

Trump literally questioned whether Ukraine should even be an equal negotiating partner in its own war—a war that Russia unlawfully started. He didn’t blame Putin’s brutal invasion. No, he blamed Ukraine for “going into a war.” Let’s be clear—Ukraine didn’t choose this war. Putin launched an unprovoked invasion. And Trump is out here acting like Ukraine should just roll over and surrender.

It gets worse. Trump echoed his own Defense Secretary, former Fox News morning show host Pete Hegseth, by saying that Ukraine should not return to its pre-2014 borders—essentially endorsing Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and the Donbas region.

That’s not how international law works. But in Trump’s world, where he’s already openly threatened to annex Canada and invade Greenland, I guess he thinks stealing land is fair game.

When reporters pushed him, asking whether refusing Ukraine NATO membership and forcing them to give up territory was handing Russia everything, Trump shrugged it off. His response? “I just want peace.”

No, you want Putin to win.

Then came the real bombshell. When asked whether he’d support forcing Zelensky to cede territory to end the war, Trump falsely claimed that Zelensky has low poll numbers (straight from Russian propaganda) and then hinted at his real plan—forcing elections in Ukraine. Why?

Because Trump and Putin want to install a Kremlin-backed puppet in Kyiv. This is literally Putin’s demand for a peace deal: get rid of Zelensky and replace him with a Russian stooge. And Trump is now parroting it word for word.

This is outright collaboration with a hostile foreign power. And just when you think it couldn’t get any worse, Trump started bragging about his “lengthy and productive” call with Putin earlier in the day. He even suggested that Putin “wants peace” now that Biden is gone.

Gee, I wonder why?

Because Trump is giving him everything he wants—no NATO for Ukraine, no aid, no resistance. Just complete capitulation.

Then, Trump casually dropped this disgraceful revelation: he expects to meet with Putin soon—not just here in the U.S., but in Russia or Saudi Arabia.

Yes, you read that right. Trump is gearing up for a full-blown Moscow surrender tour.

While all of this was happening, Republicans in Congress confirmed Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence—a huge win for Russia.

Now, let’s be clear about what this means:

No allied intelligence agency will ever trust the U.S. again.

And guess what? This was all coordinated—Trump’s call with Putin, Hegseth’s statement about Ukraine, and Tulsi Gabbard’s confirmation.

Putin isn’t just winning. Trump is handing him the victory on a silver platter. This isn’t normal. This isn’t policy disagreement. This is treason in real time.

And while all of this is happening, Trump is bragging about appointing himself chairman of…the Kennedy Center?

Seriously.

While the world watches America crumble under his spineless, treasonous leadership, he’s out here crowning himself king of an arts foundation.

To everyone who enabled this disaster—to the spineless Republicans who rubber-stamped every one of Trump’s authoritarian moves—history will remember your names. And to everyone who voted for this man—you bear responsibility for this betrayal.

But for the rest of us, the pro-democracy majority, this is not the time to give up. This is the time to fight like hell.

We still have power. We still have a voice. We will not let this stand

[lepartidelamort]

Trump sur le point de stopper l’aide militaire à l’Ukraine.

Le drama s'intensifie.

Trump veut couper l’aide militaire à l’Ukraine !

BREAKING : Trump rencontre des collaborateurs aujourd’hui pour discuter de l’annulation de l’aide militaire américaine à l’Ukraine – NYT

Ce serait très drôle.

Pour la première fois, l’Amérique désarmerait une démocratie en pleine guerre avec un état autoritaire.

Un peu comme si Roosevelt avait décidé de lâcher Churchill en 1943 (ça aurait été une excellente chose).

L’Amérique est une démocratie depuis sa fondation et les Américains y croient réellement. Si elle abandonnait un état démocratique indépendant – qu’elle a en plus poussé dans la guerre –  pour vendre son cadavre à son ennemi, le capital moral des USA disparaîtrait quasi instantanément.

Peu importe ce que vous ou moi pensons de cette guerre, ce serait objectivement un coup de poignard dans le dos.

L’épicentre de la démocratie multiraciale serait immédiatement considéré comme un pays d’incendiaires et de traîtres.

Pour rendre la situation encore plus drôle, Lindsay Graham, le type qui a armé l’Ukraine contre les Russes aux côtés de McCain, explique qu’il faut renverser Zelensky comme Yanukovitch a été renversé en 2014.

Le sénateur Graham réitère son appel à la démission de M. Zelensky : « Personne n’a voix au chapitre en Ukraine ».

Et Zelensky ne se laisse pas démonter.

Le Président Zelensky déclare que le sénateur Lindsey Graham peut déménager en Ukraine et obtenir la nationalité ukrainienne s’il veut que son appel à la démission ait du poids :

Journaliste : « Le sénateur Lindsey Graham a dit que vous devriez peut-être envisager de démissionner… »

Zelensky : « Je peux lui donner la nationalité ukrainienne. Il deviendra un citoyen de notre pays, et sa voix aura alors plus de poids. »

« Et je l’écouterai en tant que citoyen ukrainien sur la question de savoir qui doit être le président. »

Graham est un authentique homosexuel doublé d’un psychopathe.

Il peut faire basculer un pays dans la guerre totale par pur sadisme avant de lui dicter une capitulation.

Zelensky est bien sûr encouragé par ses congénères de New York à ne rien signer, mais il n’a de toute façon pas d’alternative.

La « paix » de Trump consiste simplement à lui faire signer un papier, désarmer le pays et laisser les Russes faire ce qu’ils veulent quand les caméras s’occuperont d’autre chose. S’il signe cette « paix », il se fera assassiner par les nationalistes ukrainiens – c’est garanti à 100%.

Il n’y a pas de sortie propre du merdier monstrueux qu’ont créé les juifs en Ukraine. Les hohols vont se livrer à du terrorisme nucléaire ou bactériologique, ou allez savoir quel autre truc de fou furieux. Ces Ukrainiens sont réellement cinglés et n’opèrent pas rationnellement.

En tout cas, Trump est un don du ciel, mais pas pour les raisons qui sont évoquées par ses fans.

Il détruit l’empire américain à une vitesse stupéfiante.

S’il débranche l’Ukraine, tous les pays de l’OTAN sauront que l’Amérique ne les protège plus. Les Baltes, les Polonais, les Finlandais, les Moldaves vont vivre dans la terreur.

Ils auraient mieux fait de bloquer ces juifs dès le début de l’affaire ukrainienne, ça leur aurait évité des ennuis.

Démocratie Participative

[darkmaga-returns]

But there is strong evidence that Putin is, as always, being the consummate statesman and congenial host, extending a hand of friendship to position Russia as friendly and cooperative. It can be argued that another ulterior motive behind his offer was to cleverly debunk the recent pro-Ukrainian propaganda drive—stated by Zelensky himself, among others—that Russia is itself after nothing more than to “conquer Ukraine’s plentiful natural resources.” By offering to co-develop those resources, Putin deftly out-maneuvers this narrative, proving the war’s aims have nothing to do with some singular pilfering drive.

But the most important point is to understand that Putin represents merely the top-end surface octave of the Russian state’s true messaging apparatus. His job is to always appear amenable, gracious, cooperative, and non-vindictive. But the real underlying pulse of the messaging can be gleaned from foreign ministry and diplomatic statements lower down the totem pole rungs. That’s because Putin’s position represents a kind of holistic, universal topsoil layer of the apparatus whose job is to smooth things over, retain diplomatic connectivity and equilibrium, always presenting a certain ‘openness’ and inviting mien. The lower gears deliver the more ‘nuts and bolts’ hard truths of policy, which are meant to color the official positions.

In this case, we must listen to these direct-to-the-ground messengers to establish the true details of any given narrative or position. We have several statements that point to the total refutation of the alarmist narrative which accuses Putin or Russia of some kind of capitulation. For instance, Russia’s deputy foreign minister Ryabkov explained that Russia actually has no clue what the US’ offer even is, and as such the two countries are no closer to any ‘peace deal’ as of yet:

[berniesrevolution]

MONEY ON THE LEFT

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 touched a dormant but significant fault line on the left. On the one hand, much of the left was outraged by the invasion, believing it to be an illegal and genocidal land grab. On the other hand, a cadre of the left, especially in the US and the UK, took the opposing position. They blame the US for NATO’s eastward expansion for provoking Russia’s invasion to defend its “legitimate security interests.” This second group, given voice by Noam Chomsky and by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), has consistently demanded Ukrainian capitulation to Putin’s demands. These voices combine an economistic definition of capitalism with the offensive realist IR theory (mainly John Mearsheimer‘s) of international relations as driven by the politics of power projection. Thus, they attribute Ukrainian unwillingness to capitulate to an American capitalist Realpolitik that perpetually threatens Russian security and not as an authentic defense of their nation.

However, this argument suffers from a poverty of theory. It views the world as a mechanistic body driven solely by predetermined (capitalist) instincts and denies human agency to affect the world. It also suffers from acute ahistoricism. Mearsheimer’s formulation of an anarchic “security competition” is a tautology that self-consciously excludes factors that contradict his theories as outside the scope of international relations. He does not explain how this anarchy developed, what specific social property relations it expresses, or how those social relations evolved. Thus, while it is necessary to question NATO’s continued relevance in the 21st century, the critiques by Chomsky and the DSA rely on a theory of international relations that is divorced from the material realities of the actual historical process. A leftist IR theory must be firmly rooted in the specificities of history and must account for the development of the social relations buttressing the international order. If Western capitalism is to be blamed for the war, then capitalism should be defined. The theory must also understand the evolution of internationalism as a complex and sometimes contradictory ideology, which implies a complete understanding of its revolutionary origins. Finally, a left IR theory must consider how militant worker action impacts the creation of world systems and their tensions.

The Head and the Heart

The DSA position is that the US is uniformly responsible for capitalist expansion and exploitation. It is easy to dismiss this as typical left-reactionary anti-Americanism, but this proposition is critical to DSA’s analysis of capitalism. For example, its original NATO statement argues that provocation from NATO’s expansion is the sole reason for Russia’s militarization. The International Committee’s opening statement proceeds from the organization’s 2021 platform, which states “DSA operates in the heart of a global capitalist empire” and later says, “as socialists living in the heart of the American empire.” The conflation of the US with the totality of an empire of Capital suggests that they view the two as indistinguishable. It is not just a rhetorical posture; it is a philosophical disposition.

From a moral standpoint, the DSA statement is correct. As the sole remaining superpower, the US is responsible for many atrocities and horrors, disproportionately targeting people of color and developing nations. These horrors have been committed – sometimes justified – as necessary actions to spread democratic values, protect human rights, and above all, capitalist social relations. The DSA is right to call out these hypocrisies, and they stand on firm moral ground. However, as a critique of the current imperial order and an analysis of the specific social relations that comprise the existing order, they present a reductive and mechanistic theory of history that ultimately undermines their moral capital.

Consider DSA’s description of an individual’s relationship to the system of Capital. The system is a body, the US, the body’s heart. Humans living “within the heart” are individualistic cells encoded by DNA for specific functions. Cells have no agency – they can only do what they were programmed to do. A single cell cannot change the direction the body moves and does not exist apart from the body. The body is intrinsic to the cell’s identity and existence. Not only do people have agency that goes beyond the orchestrations of a univocal political “body”, but this agency is social and linked to other relations of affiliation and dependence.

(Continue Reading)

[mariacallous]

Two years have passed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russian brutality against Ukrainians has been striking, and the evidence of Russia’s war crimes is mounting as the atrocities continue.

What has become evident is that these war crimes are not aberrations or crimes of omission. They are part and parcel of what Russia is trying to achieve in Ukraine. Testimonies collected by my organization, the Reckoning Project, and by others point to the systematic and deliberate nature of Russia’s crimes.

This makes the pursuit of accountability in Ukraine not only about justice. It is also about denying Russia its objectives and setting a precedent for other states intent on attacking their neighbors. Ensuring accountability and justice in Ukraine will contribute to accountability and justice globally.

Every day, Ukraine’s Office of the Prosecutor General publishes on its website the total number of war crime cases that the office has registered since February 2022. This month, that number passed 125,000. The number—staggering by any account—increases every day, sometimes by the hundreds, and stands for thousands of destroyed lives. Each case is a devastating tragedy in and by itself.

The actual number of war crimes is much higher, as the reported number doesn’t account for most of the crimes committed in the occupied territories, where Ukrainian law enforcement has no access—close to 20 percent of Ukraine. There may be some 3 million Ukrainians still living in these territories. Many residents have fled, but many still remain.

Beyond the scale of the crimes, it’s crucial to understand that the atrocities are integral to Russia’s war aims. Of course, some crimes are the result of a rogue soldier’s actions. But the bulk of crimes stem directly from how and why Russia is waging war against Ukraine. They are a feature, not a bug, of Russia’s war. They are systematic, deliberate, and serve a clear purpose.

Take the missile and drone strikes against civilian critical infrastructure. Last winter, Russia launched a massive air campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing nearly irreparable damage to the energy network. The purpose of these attacks was to make Ukraine uninhabitable during the cold winter. This was intended to trigger a new wave of refugees into the European Union with the aim of creating divisions among Europeans and undermining their support for Ukraine.

Today, the barrages of missile and drone attacks against civilian targets—including schools, shopping malls, and apartment blocks—are meant to terrorize the population in order to undermine Ukrainian’s morale and put pressure on the government in Kyiv to capitulate.

Russia’s crimes can also be seen in the liberated territories. The scale and scope of these crimes became evident when Ukrainian forces entered previously occupied towns such as Bucha and Irpin in the early days of the invasion. Mass atrocities were also uncovered in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions after these territories were liberated.

The killing of civilians, torture, and disappearances were part of a deliberate strategy to terrorize the local population and rid the territories of Ukrainian resistance. These crimes were—and are—a deliberate means to subdue and control Ukrainians living under occupation.

When preparing the invasion, Russia developed plans to take over and exercise control over Ukrainian territories. These included filtration camps and death lists of notable activists, journalists, and politicians. Although Russia failed to take Kyiv, these policies are being implemented in the territories it managed to occupy.

As Alice Jill Edwards, the U.N. special rapporteur on torture, wrote in a report in September 2023, Russia’s torture of Ukrainians was “orchestrated as part of a State policy to intimidate, to instil fear, to punish, or to extract information and confessions.”

But these systematic war crimes are not merely about eliminating resistance and subjugating a conquered population to Russian rule. The aim is also to Russify these territories and the Ukrainians living there.

This can be seen in one of the most egregious crimes being committed by Russia: the deportation of Ukrainian children. Kyiv estimates that 20,000 Ukrainian children have been deported to Russia, of which fewer than 400 have been returned to Ukraine. The Reckoning Project and other organizations have documented ample evidence of these deportations.

Ukrainian children are sent to Russia—ostensibly to summer camp—and never returned to their parents. They are taken from orphanages in Ukraine and put in foster homes in Russia. They are separated from their parents in filtration camps. Many of the deported children are adopted by Russians and given Russian identities.

The deportation of children—the war crime on which the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin is based—goes to the heart of Russia’s objectives in Ukraine: to destroy Ukrainian identity, culture, and ultimately the nation.

This can also be seen in the systematic indoctrination and reeducation of Ukrainian children living in the occupied territories. Ukrainian children are effectively taught to abandon their Ukrainian identity and instead become loyal Russian subjects.

It is important to understand what Russian occupation means in Ukraine. It is not merely a question of switching the language from Ukrainian to Russian in schools or Ukrainian flags being replaced by Russian flags. Occupation means oppression, torture, disappearances, indoctrination, and kidnapped children. It means the eradication of one’s culture and identity.

Russia’s actions in the occupied territories demonstrably negate the argument that its invasion was sparked by fears that Ukraine would join NATO and pose a security threat to Russia. The aggression was driven by Putin’s imperial ambition of “gathering the Russian lands” by conquering Ukraine. The country’s possible membership in NATO or the EU was seen as an obstacle to this ambition rather than a security threat.

Moscow’s efforts to Russify Ukraine and Ukrainians are also why the notion of freezing the conflict and accepting Russian control over the occupied territories is unthinkable for most Ukrainians. Two years into the war, their will to fight remains remarkably high. This is because Ukrainians know what occupation means: the destruction of a large part of their nation. Contrary to many Western armchair strategists, they know that occupation is about people—not just about land.

Holding Russia accountable for its crimes in Ukraine matters first and foremost to the victims and their families. It is primarily about ensuring justice for those who have suffered from Russia’s aggression. But it is also about denying Russia its strategic objectives in Ukraine. The pursuit of accountability puts pressure on the perpetrators and can help deter further crimes. It is a way to push back at Russia’s attempt to terrorize the population, dismember the country, and destroy the nation.

The war in Ukraine is also part of Russia’s wider effort to remodel the rules-based international order. Moscow seeks a world where might makes right, where only strong countries are sovereign, and where disregard for the laws of war is the norm. It seeks a world in which Russia can act with impunity in its neighborhood and beyond.

In that way, the war in Ukraine was enabled by the weak international response to Russia’s past wars in Chechnya, Georgia, and Syria. Just as impunity in Chechnya, Georgia, and Syria enabled Russian crimes in Ukraine, impunity in Ukraine would enable crimes elsewhere.

That Russia, in particular, is the perpetrator matters. As a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council and a nuclear power, it has a direct impact on the fabric of the international system. Accountability in Ukraine will help deter other would-be perpetrators of war crimes, regardless of their international status and standing.

To this end, the arrest warrant against Putin for the deportation of Ukrainian children is particularly powerful. It restricts his ability to engage on the global stage and represent Russia in international relations. The designation as a suspected war criminal will follow him to his grave. Other would-be tyrants are taking note.

[theculturedmarxist]

No doubt some readers of my essay yesterday were wondering how I could know that it was the Ukrainians who were responsible for destroying the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant and consequent flooding of the adjacent settlements on both banks of the Dnepr and further downstream. Where is the proof someone wrote to me in the Comments section of my website. Where is the photo showing how the breach was made?

Sticklers like these are the same folks who always argue that we simple people never can know what is really going on. Only the “big boys” have all the facts.

I never have accepted such argumentation in favor of total passivity of the population and blind obedience to authorities who, as we so often discover, are neither as intelligent nor as well-meaning as what you were told in kindergarten.  I am quite satisfied that application of normal reasoning processes like cui bono and identification of flagrant contradictions in the narratives of one or another side, of flagrant contradictions within mainstream reporting are sufficient to arrive at the truth independently and without reliance on insider information or wild speculation.

In the given instance it was quite sufficient to rely on the Marxist thinking processes differentiating between “subjective” and “objective” causality.  And the “subjective” approach leaves no doubt about what happened on 5 June at the Kakhovka dam.

Why do I say that?  Because even today as I watched the BBC morning news there was extensive video coverage of the flooding along the lower reaches of the Dnepr river, but not a peep about the military fiasco of the Ukrainian army in the previous three days of its long awaited counter-offensive. Indeed, other news channels even made reference to a new commitment by Joe Biden to provide assistance to Ukraine in light of the destruction of the reservoir at Kakhovka.

Meanwhile, yesterday all Russian news outlets gave primary attention to a speech by Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu in which he set out in detail the results on the battlefield over the previous three days of fierce engagement of Russian and Ukrainian military forces along several points of the line of confrontation, in particular in southern Donetsk. This is a summary of his report in today’s Fontanka.ru :

In the words of the minister, on 4 June the 23rd and 31st mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine undertook an attempted attack in five areas but did not achieve success in any of them. On 5 June, the Ukrainian army attempted an attack in seven areas deploying the forces of five brigades. Shoigu stated that the attempted attacks were stopped, ‘and the enemy did not achieve his objectives while bearing considerable and incomparable losses.’

As Shoigu reported, over the course of three days of military action in all areas Ukraine lost up to 3715 soldiers, 52 tanks, 207 armored vehicles, 134 automobiles, 5 airplanes, 2 helicopters, 48 field artillery pieces and 53 drones.

The minister also named the losses of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation: in the course of repelling the attack 71 soldiers died and 210 were wounded. They lost 15 tanks, 9 troop carriers, 2 automobiles and 9 artillery pieces.

As the host of the Evening with Vladimir Solovyov talk show remarked last night, this is the first time in the armed conflict that the Russians have officially reported the losses of both sides. Comparing directly the 71 Russian soldiers who died with the 3615 Ukrainians said to have lost their lives tells the whole story of the way the Ukrainian “counter-offensive” is playing out.  This is a massacre that in a just world would justify immediate cessation of all further arms deliveries to Ukraine and insistent demand for capitulation to end the senseless bloodshed.

[topless-towers-of-ilium]

Make room there for Donald Trump, who has YET to say anything negative about Putin and his thugs since being elected President. At the same time, he has trashed Pres. Zelensky with a whole cavalcade of Kremlin-manufactured lies such as "Zelenksy's poll numbers are very low, like 4%" (when in reality they are, at 57% and rising, higher than any poll number Pres. Trump has ever gotten). Trump says that Pres. Zelensky "could have made a deal with Putin" early on, when in fact the only "deal" Putin was offering would have involved total Ukrainian capitulation. Says that Pres. Zelensky "managed the war badly" when in truth Pres. Zelensky rallied Ukraine's people to defy the ruzzian invasion far more vigorously than anyone had imagined possible, and secured tremendous support from the leaders of some 30 other nations. Invaded by a ruthless foe with four times the population, ten times the GDP and 20 times the military spending of Ukraine, the Armed Forces of Ukraine under Pres. Zelensky's leadership pushed back against the brutal invasion to the point that ruzzia controls 50,000 sq. km. less Ukrainian territory than it did 35 months ago. Ukraine has also chased the ruzzian navy out of the western Black Sea and has decimated ruzzia's oil & gas industry. If Trump had any moral sense, he would be demanding withdrawal of all ruzzian troops from Ukraine's sovereign territory rather than have the US vote AGAINST the UN resolution denouncing the ruzzian invasion.

People who *still* insist Russia is defending against NATO expansionism, and that's why they had to bomb, pillage, and rape their way across Ukraine for the past three years, deserve a special place in hell.

[media-and-influence]

Trump walks back tariffs—with one key outlier

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping speak during a joint news conference in Beijing on Nov. 9, 2017. Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump hit pause on the global trade war that he launched on April 2, giving nearly every country a 90-day reprieve on the higher U.S. tariffs that had gone into effect just hours earlier. But one country was left out, FP’s Lili Pike and Christina Lu write.

China, Trump said, would see its tariff rate shoot up to 125 percent, while all other countries received a universal 10 percent tariff. The new levies on China mark the third escalation in less than a week, and experts warn that reversing them could take far longer. Beijing wasted no time in responding, announcing plans to raise its own retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods from 84 percent to match Trump’s 125 percent.

U.S. tariffs on China now total a minimum rate of 145 percent, including the increased 125 percent duty that Trump announced last Wednesday on top of the 20 percent levy that he issued near the start of his second term.

Despite the danger that Trump’s tariffs pose for China’s economy and the looming threat of a trade war, the Chinese government sees no choice but to stand its ground; its leaders will not submit to negotiations in which only they are expected to make concessions. “My recent travels to China and elsewhere reveal a broader, modestly more positive reappraisal by Chinese and international audiences about the resilience and strengths of the Chinese system” Scott Kennedy, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, writes.

Trump’s approach may ultimately be a gift to Chinese President Xi Jinping. Though the Chinese leader faces economic challenges at home, Trump’s theatrical tariff hikes help shift the blame abroad. “Yes, Beijing will face difficulties in the short term—perhaps even the long run,” FP columnist Howard W. French writes. “But Trump’s behavior distracts Chinese people from Xi’s own shortcomings and lends force to Beijing’s long-standing propaganda about the superiority of its political system.”

As the U.S.-China trade war continues to take shape, don’t miss FP’s weekly China Brief newsletter. Written by FP deputy editor James Palmer, a longtime China correspondent, China Brief is your expert guide to how Beijing is conducting its domestic and foreign policy—especially in this tumultuous moment. Sign up with one click to get the weekly newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday.—The Editors

P.S. There will be no FP This Week on Monday, April 21. We’ll be back in your inbox on April 28. 

On Our Radar

Israel’s new tactics. Three weeks into the fighting that ended a short-lived cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, “it has become clear that Israel is now waging a different war, with different goals and tactics,” David E. Rosenberg argues. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently suggested that “this is only the beginning,” implying that this wasn’t a war to rack up tactical gains before resuming talks, but rather something bigger.

Unlikely elections in Ukraine. Among the many oddities of the new U.S. approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine is the assumption that Kyiv holding early elections could be helpful or even decisive in ending the fighting, Andreas Umland, an analyst at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, writes. “The latest calls for political renewal in Ukraine are therefore premature and naive at best—and manipulative and subversive at worst,” he argues.

Universities vs. Trump. Emboldened by Columbia University’s recent capitulation to sweeping government demands, Trump is weaponizing vast sums of federal funding against a growing number of universities, FP’s Christina Lu reports. In light of Trump’s actions, confusion abounds about why institutions like Columbia—which ranks among the world’s richest universities—aren’t using their fortunes to fight back.

[cyberbenb]

Who Ukraine’s critical minerals really belong to

Editor’s note: These are tense days in Ukraine.

The big issue on everyone’s lips? How much longer until the air defense interceptors run out if the U.S. cuts off aid? And what are your backup plans if so?

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Lidiia Halkina near the Toshkivka mine before the full-scale invasion

Lidiia Halkina, who for 24 years oversaw miners who extract Ukraine’s natural resources from the earth, is glad the U.S.-Ukraine critical minerals deal wasn’t signed last week.

“I think Trump ignored our president. He thought Zelenskyy would fall into his lap and say that Ukraine would capitulate,” she said. “Our President noted that the Russian aggressor has been destroying Ukraine for 11 years in a row and no one cared about anything that happened. For Ukraine, security guarantees and peace are the most important things.”

Lidiia remained devoted to her mining job even as Russians shelled her home village in 2014, and Russian paramilitaries proclaimed that they had control of the Luhansk region.

“Rockets were flying while we sat in the basement, and the shelves were shaking,” said Lidiia, who spent most of her working life at a mine in Ukraine’s Donbas region, a few miles from the Russian border. “But we didn't consider leaving our home or stopping production.”

She ultimately had to leave after the full-scale invasion. For eleven years she has been hopeful that Ukraine’s rich mineral wealth might help it win the war. But now, Lidiia's faith is shaken, with talk that Ukraine’s mineral wealth might be taken by its American allies.

Ukraine has rich deposits of rare earth metals which are essential to the country's economy. They help economic growth, enhance energy independence, increase tech potential, and give it strategic importance in the global market.

The U.S., up until now Kyiv’s most important strategic partner, has been signalling that it wants control over these resources as ‘payback’ for its help in the last three years of war. Will Ukraine receive a good deal, such as NATO membership, or will it have to give up its resources for almost nothing?

President Zelenskyy was the first to propose that Ukraine’s allies reach a special agreement over the “joint protection” of its critical resources as part of his Ukrainian victory plan, which he hoped would win over Donald Trump.

Discussions between Ukraine and the United States intensified in early February when Trump started to ramp up the pressure, announcing he wanted to strike a deal in which Kyiv would supply the United States with rare earths and minerals in exchange for previously-provided American aid.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Donald Trump in Washington on Friday to sign an agreement – and of course, the rest is history. An Oval Office blowup in front of the press of the likes we’ve never seen before. The deal was left unsigned.

Zelenskyy is leaving the White House early following a heated meeting in the Oval Office with U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

For 24 years, until February 2022, Lidiia Halkina worked at the Toshkivka coal mine in the Luhansk region. As the head of an independent trade union of miners, she was responsible for organizing workers, and maintaining a safe workplace.

Amidst the latest news about an agreement over minerals, Lidiia thinks a deal between Ukraine and the U.S. could impact the war's course for the worse. Ukraine has about 20,000 deposits encompassing 116 types of minerals, which is approximately five percent of the world's total resources. The country’s mineral resources are valued at nearly $15 trillion.

Ukraine's subsoil holds approximately 10 percent of the world's lithium reserves, which are used in battery production, while the country also accounts for 7 percent of global titanium production. In addition, Ukraine also possesses significant reserves of zirconium, which is utilized in jet engines, and scandium, a metal that is used in the aerospace and automotive industries.

A U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Agreement would help reduce America's dependence on China, which controls about 70 percent of the world's critical minerals. Ukraine's critical minerals are also crucial for producing weapons systems, and electronics, and developing aviation and space technologies.

“These reserves and fields were discovered during the Soviet era. And, since everyone has all the data, Moscow knows precisely what we have. Suppose we look at where the Russian military is moving and take a geological map of Ukraine's largest deposits. By analyzing this map and the strategies of Russian occupation in Ukrainian territories, we can gain insights into their military goals for seizing Ukrainian resources,” explained Ksenia Orynchak, CEO of the National Extractive Industries Association of Ukraine.

Now, almost a third of Ukraine’s deposits are currently under Russian occupation.

The map shows areas of REEs and Critical Raw Materials deposits in Ukraine. Map: Ukrainian Geological Survey

The Toshkivka coal mine, where Lidiia worked, is now in occupied territory too. From 2014, it operated under constant shelling and explosions, while the power often went out after heavy bombardment.

Mining at Toshkivka in wartime was not easy. Thanks to the dangerous methane gas that is found in the mines, workers’ underground shifts were never supposed to exceed six hour stints, even with protective masks and equipment. However, given the risks above ground, it was hard to tell when it was safe to leave the mine, meaning they often risked being trapped below ground.

Toshkivka mine before the full-scale invasion in 2022. Photo by Lidiia Halkina

By 2022, the mine building was also heavily damaged by shelling, making it impossible to operate. The reserves at this coal mine had been estimated at 70 years of further production.

Toshkivka mine after the full-scale invasion. Photo by Lidiia Halkina

Following its independence in 1991, Ukraine inherited mining infrastructure from the Soviet era, primarily focused on coal, iron ore, and manganese extraction. The Soviet Union did not prioritize lithium extraction in Ukraine, and modern Ukraine has not fully exploited these natural resources.

Ksenia Orynchak, CEO of the National Extractive Industries Association

In wartime, Ukraine has struggled to keep its critical minerals industry running. Extraction of mineral resources from raw materials is costly, and the price of geological exploration can be astronomical.

Lithium production is particularly difficult, relying on foreign investment, The industry has all but stopped over the past three years. When a company obtains a mining license, it takes 10-15 years to start production. In 2017, UkrLithiumMining bought a permit from the state, which means the company is preparing to begin production in 2028-2029, provided the war is over, said Denis Alyoshin, Director of Strategic Development at UkrLithiumMining.

Ukraine retains control over vast quantities of critical mineral deposits. For example central regions of Zhytomyr and Kirovohrad have large reserves of titanium, uranium, graphite, and beryllium.

But Ukraine has historically struggled to take advantage of its rich minerals, partly thanks to being too secretive about them. In 2005, the Security Service of Ukraine issued a resolution to hide data on more than 20 types of minerals classified as critical resources. Due to such policies, Ukraine has not been able to fully attract investors, explained Ksenia Orynchak.

The U.S. is not the only one who has been trying to snatch Ukrainian minerals; Russia started doing it a long time ago. From 2014, as it occupied eastern Ukraine, the Russians began exploiting Ukraine’s coal mines, and reserves of methane gas (liquefied natural gas), selling the products abroad.

Russia is allegedly ready to offer the United States rights to mineral deposits located in the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories as part of a possible peace agreement, according to The Wall Street Journal. Limiting Russian natural gas exports to Europe would also strengthen the position of American liquefied natural gas in the European market.

This has also allowed Russia to accumulate resources and fund its army over the years. From 2022 to 2024, Russia officially registered the territories and fields it had captured.

“It is essential to understand that we shouldn't underestimate Russia and recognize that, like Ukraine, it has strong geology and engineering scientists,” Orynchak said.

Recent journalistic investigations indicate that over ten Chinese private companies intend to establish joint production for mining and producing building materials with Russia in the occupied territories. This will aid Russia in rebuilding occupied cities and constructing a road for military equipment heading to the frontline.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin meets with China's President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) member states leaders' summit in Astana on July 3, 2024. (Photo by SERGEI GUNEYEV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

The full-scale invasion changed everything for Lidiia. About a month beforehand, the Russians began bombing frontline areas. Lidiia recalls that it was terrifying, and that many people started leaving for other cities.

On February 24, as Russia invaded, a signal at the Toshkivska mine announced an immediate evacuation. That same day, Lidiia and her godson decided to leave the village. There was no time to pack much, because it was very dangerous. The journey to western Ukraine took about three days, and the route passed through Kharkiv, where there were many explosions.

Lidiia speaks with pain about the realization that the Russians are now using Ukrainian mines. Most of her life has been devoted to this work, and the understanding of losing her home and her job makes her feel dejected.

Currently, Lidiia and her husband reside in the Dnipro region, in central Ukraine. There, she has established a headquarters for weaving camouflage nets for the military.

“When we left our home… I didn't think we were leaving forever. I want peace in Ukraine and the extractive industry to recover and develop. However, I am not sure Ukraine will receive the necessary guarantees after Donald Trump's recent statements,” Lidiia told The Counteroffensive.

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NEWS OF THE DAY:

Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.

TRUMP TO CONSIDER CANCELING AID TO UKRAINE: The U.S. president will discuss on Monday the possible suspension or complete cancellation of military aid to Ukraine. This also concerns weaponry paid for during the Biden administration.

According to The New York Times, Trump will meet with his advisers, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, to consider policy options regarding Ukraine.

MOSCOW WELCOMES TRUMP POLICY: The Kremlin stated that the Trump administration’s foreign policy “largely coincides” with Russia’s vision. After the conflict in the Oval Office, where Trump criticized Zelensky for his unwillingness to compromise with Putin, Russia perceived this as a “gift.” The Kremlin does not expect a quick lifting of sanctions or an end to the war. On the contrary, the Russian military is preparing for continued fighting.

MACRON, STARMER PROPOSE A ONE-MONTH TRUCE IN UKRAINE: French President Macron stated that he and British PM Starmer are proposing a one-month truce in Ukraine. This plan includes a cessation of hostilities in the air, at sea, and with regards to energy infrastructure. According to Macron, this would be the first stage before the possible deployment of European troops to ensure peace, but this will not happen in the near future. This month is needed to reach negotiations.

ZELENSKYY READY TO MEET WITH TRUMP AGAIN: Zelenskyy said he is ready to meet with Trump if he invites him for a constructive dialogue. He said this to British journalists, responding in Ukrainian through a translator. The president of Ukraine emphasized that the dispute in the White House did not bring positive results and should be "left in history." He is ready to travel to Washington again, as the U.S. is a key partner of Ukraine.

Zelenskyy confirmed Ukraine's readiness to sign an agreement with the U.S. on mineral resources, but for him, it is important that Ukraine's position is heard on the international stage.

DOG OF WAR:

This is Betty, she is three months old. Her name comes from the word ‘bat’ because she is as big-eared as a bat.

Stay safe out there.

Best, Tim

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