#UK recession 2023

[britishbusinessonline]

Why The UK Economy Is Now Unbelievably PATHETIC

Discussing The UK Economy This is Great Britain it was once a global superpower that had grown to rule over 400 million people making it the largest Empire in history. Before we get into all this, great news today, about the UK Economy, Wednesday 19th of June 2024. UK inflation hit the Bank of England’s 2% target in May. However, this picture of Britain can now only be seen in history books…

[falcieridesigns]

Not All Pivots Are Worth Hanging On To. It's Time To Reevaluate

Not All Pivots Are Worth Hanging On To. It’s Time To Reevaluate

Some of the genius tactics that businesses used to stay in business during the pandemic are now redundant. When consumers were reluctant to go into busy supermarkets, small grocers and suppliers offered home delivery and click and collect. Refill businesses had a field day as consumers prioritised necessary purchases and used whatever means they could to get what they wanted. Sadly, the truth is…

[collapsedsquid]

The Office for National Statistics said U.K. gross domestic product shrank by 0.3% in the final three months of the year, notching the second consecutive quarterly decline.

It's funny that we live in a globalized economy but Britain is entering recession while the US hits 5% GDP growth.

[brf-rumortrackinganon]

She’ll be even loonier if she gets to go to Washington and mingle

Nothing is stopping her from doing that now.

Oh, wait. Except:

That time she bungled paid parental leave by calling senators on personal private lines.

The time she sent lemons to Jill Biden and then blabbed to everyone about how she was a close confidante to the First Lady.

The time she tried to use President Biden and Air Force One as her own personal Uber.

The time she crashed Michelle Obama's event at the London O2 arena and broke a bunch of protocol rules.

The time she gaslit the world into thinking she was besties with Michelle Obama by telling us they were having lunch and eating fish tacos, when really it was an email exchange.

The time she made public comments that the Obamas were personally advising her and Harry during Megxit and the Obamas had to put out a press release saying "no we are not."

The time she tried to access secure spaces in the United Nations headquarters without authorization and with private camera crews in tow.

The time she booked it to Uvalde with a private camera crew in tow to merch her grief as a mother while even the President knew to stay away from the community to let them grieve privately.

The time she, and her husband, used their British titles for a motivational commercial about voting.

Plus a few others like:

All the times she lied about the BRF, the family of the UK's head of state. (US government officials will prioritize the US/UK special relationship over the whines of one single woman.)

The time she was NFI to the US/UK state dinner, held at Buckingham Palace. (It was explained as maternity leave but yeah, she wasn't invited. If she was frothing at the mouth to wear a tiara in Fiji, she would've done the Trump State Visit for a tiara.)

All the times she hasn't been invited to the White House for state dinners or advocacy since 2021 since she has COVID vaccinations, motherhood, and supporting military veterans/families in common with Jill Biden.

The times the White House sent the Secretary of Transportation, the NASA Administrator, and other not-well-known government officials to represent them at 2022 and 2023 Invictus Games.

The time Nancy Pelosi's office laughed when a reporter asked them about Meghan's political prospects.

The time she aligned with the unimportant side of the Kennedy family (versus the "real" Kennedy).

And that's just the stuff that's been confirmed. We haven't even scratched the surface of the alleged gossip (like her work to lobby Newsome for Feinstein's recess appointment or her manipulations of Gloria Steinem).

So all that considered...makes one think that the establishment doesn't like Meghan and won't engage with her. Which says a lot about her standing in political Washington.

She loves the idea of Washington IG in theory, but she's gonna hate it once she's here. And that's just the dignitaries attending the ceremonies. We haven't even started to talk about the weather and what the humidity is going to do to her appearance (since the brief sounds like it's going to be a spring/early summer event).

[maaarine]

Technofeudalism: What Killed Capitalism (Yanis Varoufakis, 2023)

"Half an hour or so earlier, the people of Britain had woken up to the news that the pandemic had caused the worst recession in history.

Apparently, the UK’s national income had fallen by a whopping 20.4 per cent, far worse than any comparable figures in America or continental Europe.

Wretched news it certainly was, though not of the sort that undermines one’s world view.

It was what followed fifteen minutes later, just before you woke up, that changed the way I saw the world.

Instead of plummeting in response to the data, the London Stock Exchange jumped up by 2.3 per cent! (…)

Share markets do rise in response to bad news, but only when the news, however awful, turns out at least somewhat better than anticipated.

Had stockbrokers predicted, say, a 22 per cent fall in the UK’s national income, markets would have had good cause to rise if the actual fall on the day was ‘only’ 20.4 per cent.

Except that, on that Wednesday, the markets were expecting a drop of no more than 15 per cent.

That’s what made 12 August 2020 so bizarre: news far worse than anticipated had caused the share market to rise.

Nothing like it had happened before.

So, what had happened?

The news, it turns out, was so bad that traders in the City of London had the following realisation:

‘When things are this dismal, the Bank of England panics. And what have panicky central banks been doing since the crash of 2008? They print money and give it to us.

And what do we do with all the freshly minted dough from the central bank? We buy shares, sending their price up.

And if prices are destined to go up, only a fool would miss out on the action. A wall of printed money is surely on its way to us. Time to buy!’

And buy they did, causing the City of London to defy the gravitational laws of capitalism. (…)

Naturally you will take the free billion but as we’ve established you would be mad to invest it in new production lines.

So what are you going to do with the free cash? You could buy real estate or art or, better still, shares in your own company.

That way, the shares in your company appreciate in value and, if you are the CEO running it, your stature and share-linked bonuses rise too.

No new investment, in other words, but a lot more power in the hands of the powerful."

[the-empress-7]

If the Harkles return, Catherine will leave and take her children with her. The BRF rules on custody be damned, ya'll don't realize how much power she has with the public.

You can bet money on this.

This is what I was talking about earlier. There is no way in hell W is going to let those people or their children anywhere near his family. And there is no way the British government is going to let it get to the point of W abdicating, along with his children. Say all you want about rules, laws, yada, but at the end of the day, the monarchy has to get on with the govt. The govt doesn't generally step in, but with something of this magnitude, they absolutely would. They are a faltering country. They can't afford to lose their monarchy. And their monarchy entirely consists of WC and everyone knows it.

[thepolyamorouspolymath]

Fun fact to share with anyone who tells you about how they vote Trump because of prices or the economy, the "gas and eggs" lie that even leftists seem to believe...

Eggs have gone up in price around $0.70 since 1980 as has gas when adjusted for inflation.

So no it wasn't a choice between wallets and human rights -- because those prices haven't changed much.

It's taking more of your money to pay for essentials because of an artificial housing crisis (of Republican support), an out of date utility system (of Republican support), and wage suppression (of Republican support.)

You can check here

for prices on goods like gas and eggs and milk, adjusted for inflation every year.

The idea that Republicans are better on the economy is a lie. It's simply not supported by actual data. If we were in 1925, then we could debate the value of liberal and conservative economic policies -- they were both largely untried, simply theoretical math.

But it's been almost a century and every time conservative economics have been put in play, a market crash and recession inevitably follow. When liberal policies have been put into place, we rebounded from the biggest economic disaster in history to the longest period of sustained growth, created the middle class, funded not only our own part in WWII but a goodly portion of the UK's as well, paid to reconstruct Europe, increased education, created a safety net for our elderly (FDR post Hoover depression), had an economic and technological boom, a soaring stock market, ran a budget surplus, (Clinton post Reagan/Bush recession) restored industries, improved healthcare, came back with 72 months of sustained job growth (Obama post Bush 2 recession).

Now I will not blame Trump for the economic problems in his last year in office -- pandemics can happen to anyone and while better economic policies could have helped, that's theoretical which is up for debate, and I'm here to address FACTS. Hard data from unpartisan sources that is publicly available FACTS.

And Biden's "terrible" economy? Yeah we had the lowest inflation in the western world (EU inflation in 2023 was 6.59% versus US inflation in 2023 was 4.1% -- as of October 2024, inflation was at 2.6% versus Trump's 2.3% inflation rate in 2019) at a time when inflation is INEVITABLE (literally every pandemic has an inflation period after it, since forever -- look at the Black Death sometime), the highest GDP (21.43T for 2019 versus 27.36T for 2023) and GNP (21.73T in 2019 versus 29.03T for 2023) in history, jobs growth every quarter (unemployment rate of 3.7% in 2019 to 3.6% in 2023, which means we not only got back everything we lost from COVID, but then some), and an increase in the median wage from $35k per person per year to $59k.

For those of you who have some weird devotion to tax rates in 2019, the federal income tax rates were 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35%, and 37%. In 2023 they were... exactly the same. Your tax rates remained unchanged by Democrats at all. Also the largest budget deficit in history occurred under Trump's first administration. Personally I find these less than irrelevant (FDR put on a top tax of 94% and spent more than anyone knew you could spent and it paid off spectacularly.) But if you want to claim to be a fiscal conservative (tell me you don't understand history or economics without telling me...) then you should care.

The stock market is the worst indicator of economic health as its based on perception rather than value and has relatively little effect on daily life for most people. So how did it do under Trump (pre Covid number) versus Biden?

The S&P 500 value as of January 2020 was 3289.29. As of October 2024, 5705.45.

Again, those are all publicly available numbers.

STOP LETTING THEM GET BY WITH THE IDEA THAT THEY ARE GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY BECAUSE NO THEY ARE NOT. THEY HAVE LITERALLY NO DATA TO SUPPORT THAT.

Economics is a hard science. Data matters.

We can debate the role of religion or parental control or the fundamental nature of man. But basic arithmetic? No, sorry that question has been answered.

And anyone who tries to use it as a justification for supporting Nazis is wrong, lying, or both.

[thatstheproblemwithnapkinman]

if y’all want an idea of how bad the uk economy is rn

when i moved to liverpool in early september 2023, the car park at the end of my road cost £5 for 24 hours

now (late february 2024) it is £8

that’s a 60% increase in about 6 months

no wonder we are in a recession

[mostlysignssomeportents]

This day in history

IT'S THE LAST DAY for the Kickstarter for the audiobook of The Bezzle, the sequel to Red Team Blues, narrated by @wilwheaton! You can pre-order the audiobook and ebook, DRM free, as well as the hardcover, signed or unsigned. There's also bundles with Red Team Blues in ebook, audio or paperback.

#20yrsago Understanding slush, a primer on rejection http://nielsenhayden.com/makinglight/archives/004641.html#004641

#15yrsago Dumpster diving: the world’s most recession-proof job https://www.forbes.com/2008/12/06/computers-recycling-trash-lead-corprespons08-cx_cd_1208doctorow.html?sh=10b944034453

#15yrsago US Airways bumps Flight 1549 survivors up to super-elite status for a year https://nypost.com/2009/01/30/survivors-gilt/

#15yrsago France to give free newspaper subs to 18 year olds https://archive.nytimes.com/economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/23/le-newspaper-bailout/

#15yrsago Principles of the American Cargo Cult — the beliefs that make bad argument https://web.archive.org/web/20090211214344/http://klausler.com/cargo.html

#15yrsago Mummified Soviet-era East German flat unearthed http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7857256.stm

#15yrsago Judges jailed for taking bribes from private juvie prisons to send kids to jail https://www.inquirer.com/philly/opinion/inquirer/20090128_Editorial__Judges_Sentenced.html

#10yrsago Army won’t answer Freedom of Information Request on its SGT STAR AI chatbot https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2014/01/free-sgt-star-army-ignores-foia-request-artificial-intelligence-records

#10yrsago Rob Ford Valentines https://web.archive.org/web/20140203045203/http://www.scotty2naughty.com/new-products/toronto-valentines-mayor-ford

#5yrsago More FBI follies: civil rights groups are “terrorists�� and their victims are the KKK https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/feb/01/sacramento-rally-fbi-kkk-domestic-terrorism-california

#5yrsago RIP, Jeremy Hardy, one of the UK’s funniest lefty comedians https://memex.craphound.com/2019/02/01/rip-jeremy-hardy-one-of-the-uks-funniest-lefty-comedians/

#5yrsago Blackwater founder to site mercenary training camps conveniently close to China’s Uighur concentration camps https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-xinjiang/erik-prince-company-to-build-training-center-in-chinas-xinjiang-idUSKCN1PP169/

#5yrsago Millionaire dilettantes’ “education reform” have failed, but teacher-driven, evidence-supported education works miracles https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/millionaire-driven-education-reform-has-failed-heres-what-works

#5yrsago Local council seeks additional funds for Thatcher statue to pay for a tall anti-vandal plinth https://www.itv.com/news/2019-01-31/iron-lady-needs-10ft-plinth-to-keep-out-of-vandals-reach-police-say

#5yrsago Stock art for a new Gilded Age https://spitalfieldslife.com/2019/02/01/fat-cats-in-the-city-1824/

#1yrago Johnson and Johnson's bankruptcy gambit fails https://pluralistic.net/2023/02/01/j-and-j-jk/#risible-gambit

Back the Kickstarter for the audiobook of The Bezzle here!

[theculturedmarxist]

By James Meadway who hosts the weekly economics podcast Macrodose and is director of the Progressive Economy Forum. Previously, he was economic adviser to the shadow chancellor, and chief economist at the New Economics Foundation. Originally published at OpenDemocracy.

The working assumption, for governments and central banks across the world, is that at some point soon everything will get back to ‘normal’ – our economies will return to either pre-pandemic or, sometimes, even pre-2008 crash levels.

These beliefs are reinforced by media economics commentary and across political parties.

But what if they’re wrong? The world’s largest asset manager, overseeing $10trn in assets across the globe, thinks we are, instead, entering a period of increased risk and uncertainty, defined by unavoidable recession and much higher inflation.

BlackRock – a well-connected, influential and hugely profitable pillar of global capitalism – made the predictions in its ‘2023 Global Investment Outlook’ report.

It states: “The Great Moderation, the four-decade period of largely stable activity and inflation, is behind us.”

Instead, BlackRock forecasts a new regime with a “brutal trade-off” – falling living standards for the many becoming profits for the few.

This reality, of a world undergoing fundamental transformations and disrupting our settled modes of existence, has so far barely entered the economic mainstream.

For BlackRock to break with this consensus might, potentially, be one of the first signs of a broader shift in how major institutions in the Western economies view the world.

Systemic chaos

Annual food inflation in the UK rose to 13.3% – an all-time high – last month, according to trade body the British Retail Consortium, ahead of the official government figures out later this month.

This situation – though slightly worse in the UK due to a flawed Brexit deal and the falling value of the pound (critical as a major food importer) – is common across the globe. Even as wholesale energy prices have dropped from their summer 2022 peak, the price of food everywhere is soaring. United Nations’ forecasts show a major risk of widespread famine in the Global South over the next year, with harvests continuing to underperform.

This global spike in prices over the past 18 months was initially described by the economic establishment as “transitory”. Then, as inflation continued remorselessly upwards, familiar explanations reappeared: notably, excessive worker power (but real wages in the Global North are still falling) and excessive printing of money through quantitative easing (but we’ve been running QE since 2009).

The economic profession as a whole, and institutions such as the major central banks, have typically written down the obvious evidence of global instability as temporary factors, rather than something more systemic.

This means we’re trapped with central banks that still think pushing up interest rates to induce a recession is a smart way to bring down inflation. We have governments committed to holding down wages and salaries while allowing profits to explode.

But BlackRock believes the world is now “shaped by supply that involves brutal trade-offs” – in other words, the world economy is less effective at supplying goods and services than it was.

The after-effects of the pandemic have caused supply chain problems, as we all know, but they also think an ageing population means fewer workers, pushing up the cost of labour; that “geopolitical tensions” will disrupt global supply chains; and that the shift to net-zero carbon emissions will involve “demand and supply mismatches”.

Put all this together, and BlackRock thinks inflation will come down to the 2% level we’ve been used to only if central banks are prepared to ‘crush’ their economies into a severe recession. Since that’s unlikely, inflation will stay much higher than we are used to – combined with a miserable recession over the next year or so.

Massive profits for the lucky few

But BlackRock’s predictions don’t cover everything.

Its report misses the longer-term effects of Covid – both in terms of the impact on healthcare and, as we’re currently seeing, continuing waves of infection. It also misses, critically, the wider ecological impacts of climate change, biodiversity loss and resource depletion.

It is possible to imagine a world where peace returns rapidly to Ukraine, and the subsequent disruptions to global food and fertiliser trade are reduced. It is not possible to imagine a world where climate change and ecological destruction are thrown into reverse – indeed, some of the effects felt today, notably, biodiversity loss, are irreversible.

This twofold combination has led ecologist Nicholas Beuret to describe a “climate supercycle” of food shortages and rising prices running well into the future. (A recent episode of my podcast ‘Macrodose’ examines the coming food shortages for UK farmers.)

And, finally, BlackRock misses the extreme profits that shortages over the last year have generated for a select few multinationals, such as those supplying oil and gas.

It’s the last part that’s critical. A more unstable world affects everyone, but it will affect everyone differently.

For most of us, on the wrong side of food price hikes and extreme weather, the future is not great. But for the lucky few, shortages have been turned, through price rises, into massive profits

[heliosphoenix]

State of the Planet: 2023 Edition

Here we are once again. Hours to go until the new year is upon us. Even though when you read this you may very well be in the future, it's time once again to use the few hours we have left in 2023 to take a look at the state of the planet. And...what a state it is. I said last year that 2022 may have very well been the inflection point for this decade, the moment that the 2020's truly began to come into their own. I think that's held true for this year, even though it still feels like folks are trying to find their feet in some aspects. But even in all this confusion and uncertainty, there is still progress to be had. So let's take a look back at some of the good things that happened this year:

The European Parliment commited to ending the sale of petrol and diesel fueled vehicles in the EU by 2035 in an effort to push the adoption of electric vehicles.

The High Seas Treaty was signed by the member states of the UN, this treaty commits to the conservation of 30% of the world's oceans by 2030.

The ozone hole continues to shrink, projections have it on track to recover to 1980's levels by 2050.

Finland became the 31st member of NATO.

The World Health Organization declared that COVID-19 and Monkeypox are no longer a global health emergencies.

The first synthetic human embryo was created from the use of stem cells.

The African Union became the 21st permanent member of the G20 (wouldn't it be G21 now?).

Katalin Karikó & Drew Weissman won the Nobel Prize in medicine for their contributions towards the development of mRNA vaccines against COVID-19.

The FDA approved of a treatment for sickle cell disease involving the use of the gene-editing technique Crispr.

Scientists announced the ability to use AI to decode people's thoughts from brain scans.

King Charles III ascended to the throne in the UK.

Pope Francis decreed that Roman Catholic priests would be allowed to bless same-sex marraiges.

Mexico decriminalized abortion at the federal level.

Despite projections of a recession, the United States economy experienced it's biggest growth since before the pandemic, adding 2.5 million jobs and inflation decreasing to 3.1%.

Spain won the Women's World Cup for the first time in a 1-0 victory over England.

SpaceX's fully stacked Starship flew twice this year, the largest rocket to ever fly (now if only they can get it to stop exploding).

The Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer (JUICE) was launched by the European Space Agency, it's expected to arrive at Jupiter in 2031.

The European Ariane 5 rocket flew its 117th and final mission.

India's Chandrayaan-3 landed at the Moon's south pole, the first spacecraft to do so.

Oppenheimer and Barbie released the same day in theaters and the internet had a lot of fun with that.

Michigan went 13-0 agian and won their third straight Big Ten championship (BEAT BAMA!)

The Pistons actually won a game before the end of the year.

Remember all that? It's okay if you didn't. But once again, this is where I'm at right now.

You are in the future. Every single word on this post is already confined to the history books. How you remember this year is ultimately up to you, but keep in mind that the reason I make these posts is a counterpoint to the many forces out there who have a lot to gain if everyone is under the impression that everything is always terrible all the time.

And that leads me to my word of the year. It's a bit unusual but I think it fits:

The word of the year is: Perception.

At our core, all of us are truth seekers. Whether it's objective truth or personal truth, we all want to find it. One of the benefits of the internet age that, in my opinion, gets taken for granted is that we now have more information available to us than at any time in human history. Our ancestors had to deal with incomplete and contradictory information, but now we can find out pretty much anything in a matter of seconds.

But with that information comes a host of issues. We unfortunately live in an age where a commitment to objective truth is being overshadowed by a desire for personal truth. We're putting less emphasis on what is true and more on what we want to be true. Unfortunately, as Carl Sagan once said, our preferences do not determine what is true.

And there are those who seek to exploit this. There are people in this world that are willing to alter your own perception on how things are. But not to benefit you, but to benefit them. They wish to take advantage of your desire for your own beliefs to be validated for time evermore and turn that against you, so that they can create a better world for themselves even at your own expense.

But you can stop them. All you have to do is be aware that perception doesn't always equal reality.

2024 will be a consequential year. For one thing, it's an election year in the United States which means the stakes are high enough as is. There will be a lot of consequential events over the next 366 days (yay for leap years!), and a lot of people that you've never met will be trying to tell you how to think and what to believe.

Remember that at the end of the day, the most important values are the ones you hold dear. Just because something gets a lot of engagement on your socials doesn't mean it's the best way to contextualize something. Don't allow your beliefs and values to be compromised for the sake of fitting in with trends or trying to cash in on some vague notion of importance; especially when there's people trying to exploit that at your expense.

The first step to healthy civic engagement is a body politic that is informed and questioning. It will do you no harm to read up on whatever topic is trending on the socials. It will only make you informed and then you will be able to decide if a position or a policy is truly the right one for you, based on what you hold to be important.

Knowledge can be scary at times. It may cause us to reevaluate our position, as well as come to realize that something we felt or believed or even wished to be true now has to be totally re-examined in a new light. But all that is what helps us grow, that's what helps us evolve and become stronger.

They used to tell us that "knowledge is power." I can tell you that knowledge only makes you better.

Remember these words as you head into the new year. Rather than wishing for your perception to be reality, base your perception on reality. And then those who thrive on the exploitation of ignorance will have no power over you.

Have a great New Year's Eve, friends. And I'll see you all in 2024.

Helios.

[smoothestjazz]

the big problem with 2023 is that everything this year has been absurd and is hard to see that until you take stock of everything and really think about how categorically insane everything has been

1. Musk's continued reign at Twitter and the WotC nonsense, both are examples of corporations lighting themselves on fire for no reason

2. The balloons? What the hell is going on there. We're just shooting down balloons and other random objects?

3. A train full of dangerous chemicals crashed in Ohio (iirc) and had to be blown up, scattering chemical waste over several states

4. COVID is still happening. Did we all forget?

5. JKR and the mysterious case of transphobia. Literally using an antisemitic game to fund trans oppression in the UK.... AND TRY TO PREVENT SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE

6. Multiple reports of tech companies laying off thousands of workers. No one has even breathed the word recession yet.

7. Chinese and Indian soldiers are attacking each other at a contested border with improvised melee weapons, including clubs, electrified tridents, and a weapon I've only heard described as "the wolf fang mace"

I could go on but my point is that current events are completely batshit insane and I feel like we're not talking about the fact that the batshit insanity has only increased since the new year

[beardedmrbean]

The Illegal Migration Bill is facing challenges in its final stages in Parliament.

The bill is part of the government's plan to tackle small boat crossings after record numbers arrived in the UK this way in 2022.

What is the government's plan to tackle migrants?

Under the Illegal Migration Bill, published in March 2023:

the home secretary has a duty to detain and remove those arriving in the UK illegally either to Rwanda, or another "safe" third country

migrants will not be granted bail or able to seek judicial review for the first 28 days of detention

under-18s, those medically unfit to fly or at risk of serious harm in the country to which they are being removed, will be able to delay departure

the number of refugees the UK settles through "safe and legal routes" is capped

Under a new agreement with France, the UK will pay £500m over three years to fund more patrol officers and a new detention centre.

The government also said its returns agreement with Albania had reduced small boat arrivals from the country.

How many people cross the Channel in small boats?

Rishi Sunak's claims on small boats fact checked

What changes have been made to the Illegal Migration Bill in parliament?

Pressure from peers in the House of Lords led to changes being made to the bill, known as "amendments".

One required the government to produce a report looking at the existing so-called "safe and legal" routes to the UK, and the possibility of expanding them.

Another was to add protections in the bill for people claiming to be victims of modern slavery.

But when the bill returned to the House of Commons - and despite criticism from some senior Conservative MPs - nearly all of the changes suggested by the Lords were overturned.

At a later stage of voting, these provisions were reinstated by the Lords.

The bill is currently in the "ping-pong" stage of Parliament, where it passes between MPs and Lords who consider the changes proposed by the opposing house.

The government hopes to pass the bill before Parliament breaks up for the summer recess period.

Concession over detention limits in migration bill

On a boat picking up migrants in the middle of the Med

What are the "safe and legal" routes to claim asylum in the UK?

The Home Office insists there are a number of "safe and legal" routes to the UK.

However, some are restricted to people from specific countries such as Afghanistan and Ukraine, while other routes only accept limited numbers. Figures shown are for the year to March 2023:

UK Resettlement Scheme - prioritises those from regions in conflict (1,056 grants issued)

Community Sponsorship Scheme - for local community groups to provide accommodation and support for refugees (309 grants)

Refugee Family Reunion - for partners and children under 18 of those already granted protection in the UK (6,029 visas)

Mandate Resettlement Scheme - to resettle refugees who have a close family member in the UK who can offer a home. (Six resettled; about 430 refugees accepted since 2004)

In April 2023, Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick was asked in Parliament which safe and legal routes were available to a young person wanting to flee the conflict in Sudan.

He said, "the best advice would be for individuals to present to the UNHCR [UN Refugee Agency]. We already operate safe and legal routes with them."

But the body insists "there is no mechanism through which refugees can approach UNHCR with the intention of seeking asylum in the UK."

What does international law say about refugees?

Critics of the government's asylum proposals, such as the Refugee Council, say they risk breaking international law.

The main principle of the 1951 Refugee Convention states that refugees should not be returned to countries where they faced threats to life or freedom.

The government insists its plan to send migrants to Rwanda for their asylum cases to be heard complies with international law.

But the Court of Appeal ruled in June 2023 that sending asylum seekers to Rwanda was unlawful and risks breaching Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights.

The government will take the case to the Supreme Court.

What has the government said about migrant accommodation?

In March 2023, it said that three ex-military sites in Essex, Lincolnshire and East Sussex would house several thousand migrants.

In April 2023, it announced a barge called the Bibby Stockholm based in Dorset would host up to 500 adult male asylum seekers.

Another accommodation site called Catterick Garrison in Yorkshire is also due to open soon.

Local councils in Lincolnshire and Essex both lost legal challenges to prevent bases being used to house asylum seekers.

On 12 July 2023, the first asylum seekers arrived at the Essex site. The Home Office said 46 asylum seekers had been placed there, with more due to arrive over the summer and autumn months.

The government hopes the new measures will reduce the amount of money it spends on accommodation. There are more than 51,000 asylum seekers currently living in hotels across the UK.

A Home Office official told a committee of MPs that the department was paying to keep nearly 5,000 hotel beds empty to prevent overcrowding at detention centres.

[newstfionline]

Saturday, March 11, 2023

How Healthy Is Global Democracy? (Foreign Policy) In his State of the Union address one month ago, U.S. President Joe Biden hailed the resilience of global democracy. “In the past two years, democracies have become stronger, not weaker,” he declared. “Autocracies have grown weaker, not stronger.” In reality, the picture is murkier. Global democracy has now declined for 17 straight years, according to a new report by Freedom House—although there are new signs that this “long freedom recession may be bottoming out, which would set the stage for a future recovery.” To assess the state of the world, the organization scored 195 countries and 15 territories by 25 indicators, before tallying their final grade to measure whether they are “Free,” “Partly Free,” or “Not Free.” In 2022, 35 countries’ grades dropped while 34 countries improved—marking an overall decline in global freedoms.

Silicon Valley Bank Fails (NYT) If there is one enduring axiom in banking, it is this: Don’t run out of money. Silicon Valley Bank, a lender to some of the biggest names in the technology world, did just that on Friday, becoming the largest bank to fail since the 2008 financial crisis. The move put nearly $175 billion in customer deposits, including money from some of the biggest names in the technology world, under the control of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The FDIC created a new bank, the National Bank of Santa Clara, to hold the deposits and other assets of the failed one. The regulator said in a news release that the new entity would be operating by Monday and that checks issued by the old bank would continue to clear. Silicon Valley was heavily exposed to tech industry and there is little chance of contagion in the banking sector similar to the chaos in the months leading up to the Great Recession more than a decade ago.

Many Ukrainians stuck in limbo with US permission expiring (AP) When U.S. officials at the U.S.-Mexico border stamped the Ukrainian passports of Mariia and her daughter last April and gave them permission to stay for a year, she figured she would return home within months. Now with that year almost up and the war that caused them to flee still raging, their permission to stay in the U.S.—known as humanitarian parole—is set to expire April 23. “The word `worry’ doesn’t capture what I’m feeling,” said Mariia, who spoke through an interpreter. The 46-year-old woman and her daughter, now 13, are among 20,000 Ukrainians in a similar situation, according to resettlement agencies. The Biden administration has said it is working on a fix but so far has issued no official guidance on what Ukrainians should do, according to advocates helping the Ukrainians.

Mexican president to US: Fentanyl is your problem (AP) Mexico’s president said Thursday that his country does not produce or consume fentanyl, despite enormous evidence to the contrary. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador appeared to depict the synthetic opioid epidemic largely as a U.S. problem, and said the United States should use family values to fight drug addiction. His statement came during a visit to Mexico by Liz Sherwood-Randall, the White House homeland security adviser, to discuss the fentanyl crisis. It also comes amid calls by some U.S. Republicans to use the U.S. military to attack drug labs in Mexico. The Mexican government has acknowledged in the past that fentanyl is produced at labs in Mexico using precursor chemicals imported from China. Fentanyl has been blamed for about 70,000 opioid deaths per year in the United States. “Here, we do not produce fentanyl, and we do not have consumption of fentanyl,” López Obrador said. “Why don’t they (the United States) take care of their problem of social decay?” In February, the Mexican army announced it seized more than a half million fentanyl pills in what it called the largest synthetic drug lab found to date.

Schools shut, drivers stuck as gales and blizzards batter UK (AP) Trains were canceled, some schools were shut and drivers were stuck for hours on a major highway as a blast of snow and wind hit Britain on Friday for the second time in a week. The weather system, named Storm Larissa by meteorologists, brought gales and blizzards to much of the country. Alex Burkill, a meteorologist with the Met Office weather agency, said the worst-hit area was northern England and north Wales, where 50 mph (80 kph) wind gusts were accompanied by up to a foot (30 centimeters) of snow. Some drivers spent more than seven hours in their cars after traffic ground to a halt on the M62 highway that cuts across northern England.

Eight killed, including gunman, in shooting at Jehovah’s Witness hall in Germany (Reuters) Eight people were killed in a shooting at a Jehovah’s Witness place of worship in the German city of Hamburg and the gunman was among the dead, police said on Friday. Police received a call soon after 9 p.m. (2000 GMT) on Thursday and officers arrived at the scene to find several people seriously injured and some dead. Television footage showed dozens of police cars as well as fire engines blocking off streets and some people, wrapped in blankets, being led by emergency service workers into a bus. The gunman was believed to be a former member of the Jehovah’s Witness community, Spiegel magazine reported.

Anti-Russia guerrillas in Belarus (AP) After Russia invaded Ukraine, guerrillas from Belarus began carrying out acts of sabotage on their country’s railways, including blowing up track equipment to paralyze the rails that Russian forces used to get troops and weapons into Ukraine. In the most recent sabotage to make international headlines, they attacked a Russian warplane parked just outside the Belarusian capital. “Belarusians will not allow the Russians to freely use our territory for the war with Ukraine, and we want to force them to leave,” Anton, a retired Belarusian serviceman who joined a group of saboteurs, told The Associated Press in a phone interview. More than a year after Russia used the territory of its neighbor and ally to invade Ukraine, Belarus continues to host Russian troops, as well as warplanes, missiles and other weapons. Activists say the rail attacks have forced the Russian military to abandon the use of trains to send troops and materiel to Ukraine.

Traumatic stress, an invisible wound, hobbles Ukrainian soldiers (Washington Post) Night after night, the soldiers’ memories haunt them. Andriy Dobrovolskyi, 47, an infantry soldier, imagines he has just stepped on another mine. He wakes searching for his feet, then remembers he only has one left. After more than a year of war, Ukrainian soldiers are experiencing intense symptoms of psychological stress, including nightmares, poor sleep, guilt, anxiety and panic attacks, according to interviews with troops across Ukraine and psychologists treating them. Some soldiers have turned their weapons on themselves, dying by suicide. Others are suffering quietly in hospitals and on military bases, during visits home and on the front lines, where they face a constant threat of Russian attacks even as their symptoms are triggered or worsened by concussions from artillery shelling. The problem is debilitating, widespread and excruciatingly difficult to treat in a country that—even away from its battlefields—is under constant threat of attack. Although often invisible, widespread fatigue and mental trauma among soldiers is yet another difficult challenge Ukraine’s military must confront as it tries to defend the country against the continuing Russian onslaught.

The basement lives of Ukrainians who refuse to flee frontline towns (Ukrainska Pravda) Russian shells hit frontline cities Siversk and Lyman every day, but some people are refusing to abandon their homes. Life has gone underground. A year since the beginning of the Russian invasion, a reporter from Ukrainska Pravda meets people surviving in basements—their towns destroyed, but still alive. Lyman came under daily artillery and rocket bombardment when Russian forces attacked the city in May 2022. Ukrainian forces took the city back five months ago. Houses are still in ruins, but streets and sidewalks have been cleared. Of 51,000 residents, only about 7,000 have remained. We talked to Lyuba at the entrance to the basement of her five-storey house. During the intense shelling, she said it was “densely populated.” The military administration of Siversk distributes individual hygiene kits to each person every month. Generators have been distributed—one for every two or three basements, and gasoline for generators is free, as is drinking water and food. At the same time, officials from the military administration are constantly trying to convince people to leave because of the daily shelling. But people stay in the basements.

Xi awarded 3rd term as China’s president, extending rule (AP) Chinese leader Xi Jinping was awarded a third five-year term as the nation’s president Friday, putting him on track to stay in power for life at a time of severe economic challenges and rising tensions with the U.S. and others. The endorsement of Xi’s appointment by the ceremonial National People’s Congress was a foregone conclusion for a leader who has sidelined potential rivals and filled the top ranks of the ruling Communist Party with his supporters since taking power in 2012. The vote for Xi was 2,952 to 0 by the NPC, members of which are appointed by the ruling party. Xi, 69, had himself named to a third five-year term as party general secretary in October, breaking with a tradition under which Chinese leaders handed over power once a decade. A two-term limit on the figurehead presidency was deleted from the Chinese Constitution earlier, prompting suggestions he might stay in power for life.

Fukushima 12 years after meltdown (AP) Twelve years after the triple reactor meltdowns at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, Japan is preparing to release a massive amount of treated radioactive wastewater into the sea. Japanese officials say the release is unavoidable and should start soon. Dealing with the wastewater is less of a challenge than the daunting task of decommissioning the plant. That process has barely progressed, and the removal of melted nuclear fuel hasn’t even started. Akira Ono, who heads the cleanup as president of TEPCO’s decommissioning unit, says the work is “unconceivably difficult.” Earlier this year, a remote-controlled underwater vehicle successfully collected a tiny sample from inside Unit 1′s reactor—only a spoonful of about 880 tons of melted fuel debris in the three reactors. That’s 10 times the amount of damaged fuel removed at the Three Mile Island cleanup following its 1979 partial core melt.

Saudi Arabia and Iran Agree to Restore Ties, in Talks Hosted by China (NYT) After years of open hostility and proxy conflicts across the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to re-establish diplomatic ties, they announced on Friday, in a significant pivot for the two regional rivals that was facilitated by China. China hosted the talks that led to the breakthrough, highlighting Beijing’s growing role as a global economic and political power, and counterbalance to Washington—particularly in the Middle East, a region that was long shaped by the military and diplomatic involvement of the United States. Whether the shift leads to a deep or lasting détente between governments that have long been in conflict remains unclear, but there have been signs that both nations wanted to find a way to step back from confrontation.

African Countries Made Huge Gains in Life Expectancy. Now That Could Be Erased. (NYT) Hannah Wanjiru was plagued by dizzy spells and headaches for years. After a half-dozen costly trips to the doctor, she was finally diagnosed with high blood pressure. Her husband, David Kimani, had been shuttling between doctors himself and ended up with a diagnosis of diabetes, another condition the couple knew nothing about. Not far from their small apartment in the Kenyan capital, there is a public hospital where treatments for H.I.V. and tuberculosis are provided for free. There is no such program for high blood pressure or diabetes, or for cancer or chronic respiratory conditions. The health systems in Kenya and much of sub-Saharan Africa—and the international donations that support them—are heavily weighted to the treatment of communicable diseases such as H.I.V. and malaria. Success in fighting H.I.V., tuberculosis and other deadly infectious diseases, plus an expansion of essential services, have helped countries in sub-Saharan Africa achieve extraordinary gains in healthy life expectancy over the past two decades—10 additional years, the largest improvement in the world, the World Health Organization reported recently. “But this was offset by the dramatic rise in hypertension, diabetes and other noncommunicable diseases and the lack of health services targeting these diseases,” the agency said, launching a report on health care in Africa. It warned that the rise in life expectancy could be erased before the next decade is out.

$7,034 (WSJ) The median starting price for a newly approved drug per patient monthly in 2022. That’s up from $2,624 in 2011, according to an analysis conducted for The Wall Street Journal by the nonprofit 46brooklyn Research. Drug companies face rising pressure to rein in repeat or annual price hikes on existing medicines, so they are bringing drugs to market with higher initial prices.

[forestfawnette]

THE SUBLUNA EMPORIUM

Esoteric Arts Fair

London, UK

12th of February 2023

2pm - 8pm

The Basement - Hope & Anchor 207 Upper Street, N1 1RL

Entry: £1 on the door

Or buy your ticket in advance: https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-subluna-emporium-esoteric-arts-fair-tickets-507767394947

The SubLuna Emporium is a new, small-but-perfectly-formed art market event featuring a group of artists that celebrate the strange, the esoteric, the dark corners of the forests and the bright, swirling recesses of the mind.

We hope to offer photography, illustration, painting, leatherwork and other delights for you to come and purchase.

Sadly the venue is not wheelchair accessible - there is a staircase down to the basement.

ARTISTS

Richard Ricochet

𝘬𝘪𝘵𝘴𝘤𝘩 + 𝘵��𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘤𝘢𝘣𝘳𝘦

https://www.instagram.com/richardricochetart/

Alice Ofthedead

𝘴𝘦𝘹𝘺 𝘮𝘺𝘤𝘰𝘭𝘰𝘨𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘴𝘵𝘶𝘧𝘧

https://www.instagram.com/aliceofthedead/

Mark 13

𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘱𝘶𝘯𝘬𝘴, 𝘨𝘰𝘢𝘵𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘨𝘰𝘳𝘦.

https://www.instagram.com/markth1rt3en/

As Above So Below Photography

𝘴𝘤𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘴 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦

https://www.instagram.com/as_above_so_below._photography/

Stellina Serpentine

𝘸𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘵, 𝘤𝘢𝘳𝘷𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦

https://www.instagram.com/skinsculptures/

Forest Fawnette

𝘧𝘪𝘨𝘶𝘳𝘦𝘴 | 𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘴 | 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘦𝘴

https://www.instagram.com/forestfawnette/

Live music from 5pm.

Musicians to be announced soon... !

Some work may contain content not suitable for those under 16.

[ukimmigrationmatters]

UK Property Predictions For 2023 – Where Is The Housing And Rental Market Going?

With some forecasters warning of somewhere between a depression and Armageddon, here are my thoughts on the UK housing market.

For more great tips and money-making ideas and coaching offers see Master Your Money the S.M.A.R.T Way training. Check it out for free - https://bit.ly/3isugCr.

The UK housing market will shrink - but not necessarily crash - next year, industry experts agree, as the government fights recession and higher mortgage rates.

House prices have been dropping month-on-month with average prices down 2.3% in November from October – the most since the start of the financial crash in 2008 – according to Halifax.

Price growth will decline in 2023 as soaring inflation hits the economy and forces interest rates up.

As the downturn intensifies, housing indicators are showing red with rates expected to go even higher and the UK goes into a long recession.

The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates into 2023 from 3.5% now to 4.75%, but there are signs that the rate of inflation is slowing.

Higher interest rates will hit buy-to-let landlords and investors, as deals fail to stack up.

Move from cities to the country is slowing, as more people move back to the office.

Property experts forecast property price declines of 5% - 12% next year, although some warn of a crash by 15% to 20%. 

Mortgage rates have since fallen back since the disastrous mini-budget in September to an average five-year fix at 5.6% according to Moneyfacts – still far higher than a year ago.

UK mortgage lenders expect to lend 23% less to homebuyers in 2023 following a two-year boom.

UK Finance forecast gross mortgage lending for house purchases to decline to £131bn in 2023 from £171bn in 2022 and a peak of £189bn in 2021.

Leading UK lenders have met with government officials to discuss measures to ease the burden on around 90,000 people in mortgage arrears, the FT reports.

Property sales are set to drop to 1.01m next year from 1.27m in 2022.

Savills warns of a severe drop in transactions, to 870,000, and a 10% fall in house prices in 2023.

Estate agents Jones Lang LaSalle forecasts a 6% drop in house prices next year.

Both firms expect a 1% price growth in 2024, as interest rates fall back and inflation cools.

The Nationwide expects a “modest decline” or “soft landing” in house prices next year, but lenders seldom talk of a property crash. The lender said 85% of mortgage balances are currently on fixed interest rates.

The Bank of England said 4m households face higher mortgage payments next year.

Typical payments could rise by £250 to £1,000 a month causing severe financial difficulties for 220,000 households.

Capital Economics’ central forecast is for house prices to fall by 12% by the end of 2023, but Andrew Wishart, senior economist at the consultancy, said in a worst-case scenario prices could plummet by up to 20%. “The initial drop in house prices has been sharper than in the financial crisis or the early 90s, “For affordability to return to a sustainable level by the end of 2023, when we think mortgage rates will still be around 5%, the average house price would have to drop by 20%.

On the other hand, were market and mortgage interest rates to drop faster than we expect, that would limit the fall in prices.”

Rent prices have surged to record levels due to a shortage of properties to rent and growing demand, as well as a slowing buy-to-let market and many first-time buyers are opting to rent in the hope of lower mortgage rates in 2023/24. Some 85,000 landlords have quit the buy-to-let market in the last 5 years.

See my Money Tips Podcast video - https://youtu.be/NME3nEu8dAQ

UK private rents jumped by 4% in November, the highest since records began in 2016, official figures showed.

Savills forecasts rental growth rising to 6.5% before slowing to 4% in 2024.

Globally, many markets seem overheated and, in a bubble, – Sydney and Auckland for instance.

China’s property market boom appears to be over with a 20% decline.

In my next episode, I will be talking to one of Toronto’s leading realtors about his housing predictions for 2023.

As with all economic forecasts, much depends on government action and the prevailing winds of the economy, but more rests on your action in your U’conomy!

Your goals for 2023

·        How was 2022 for you?

·        Did you achieve your goals?

·        What are your financial goals for 2023 and how do you plan to achieve them?

I wish you a happy and successful new year!

For more tips and money-making ideas and coaching see Master Your Money the S.M.A.R.T Way training.  

Check it out for free - https://bit.ly/3isugCr.

 #property #rentalmarket #finance #financialfreedom #freefinancialtraining #freetraining #money #wealth #landlord #buytoletlandlord #property #goals #plans #interestrates #bankofengland