#Trump vs. Tester

[dhaaruni]

See, I think that's where the mainstream liberal philosophy differs from reality. The typical American - especially the typical rural American - isn't interested in material gains so much as he is in keeping material gains *away* from those he deems inferior (nonwhites, non-straights, women, etc.). That's why all-encompassing welfare proposals spur them into voting for the GOP so often. (They sang a different tune on pre-60s welfare because it mostly excluded minorities.)

I don't get your point because non-college white people being conservative doesn't mean that Democrats don't need to win more of them over. Like, we need to do something to stop losing rural counties 75-25 and lose them by 65-35 because right now, with that 75-25 split, it's basically impossible for Democrats to keep the Senate and win the electoral college. 2024 will be an absolute bloodbath in terms of the Senate, and I don't think that people grasp just how much so. Any or all of those Midwestern senators (Baldwin, Casey, Stabenow, Brown) + Manchin and Tester are at risk of losing their seats because Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are all going to be won by less than 5%, and Biden will lose Montana and West Virginia and most likely Ohio by double digits.

I keep emphasizing this but Biden was less than 43,000 votes across WI/AZ/GA from losing the election and that's after Trump killed a half million Americans in a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic. And, the only way to give us more of an electoral cushion is to do better in the rurals, and that means winning over white people. There simply aren't enough Native American reservations and Black rural farmers in the southern Black belt to make up for our cratering with white people in the rurals, like we need to do better with them.

Also like, re: talking about race, Steve Bullock was on point in that op-ed. This is what he said:

"It’s in the void of inaction and failure to solve problems real people face that racially tinged cultural fights, like we saw in Virginia, take hold. My children are in high school and have never heard of critical race theory — nor have their teachers. What voters want to know is that Democrats will fight for racial justice and to improve the lives of rural Americans, no matter the color of their skin. After all, that’s what we’ve always done."

I'm genuinely confused at how people are calling that statement dogwhistling like that's literally how normal people talk, and Democrats pretending otherwise is causing us to get demolished in the rurals in a way that's flat out not sustainable.

I'm not talking about all this stuff in a normative way either, I'm talking about it in a positive way, the numbers are against us right now, and we can either change our tactics and maybe make up the margins enough to win, or we can lose and hurtle into single-party Republican rule for the next few decades. I recommend that we stop doing things like making videos of equity vs. equality, never utter the word "birthing" ever again, and emphasize how we're all Americans who want the same things and how Democratic policies will help everybody and not just select demographics.

[wats-good-gabby]

@jontroversy: “You know it’s okay to blame republicans for voting for republicans, right? Pelosi also led a historic house win in 2018 but now she can’t be trusted at all, even though all of the races haven’t been settled yet (same for the senate). Is the solution to run more Bernie sanders-esque candidates? It’s clear from the results so far there is not an appetite for them.”

Now, I do want to be clear, I never said she can’t be trusted for anything nor am disputing the major wins in the House in 2018. 

The reason I wrote about my criticism with the House Democrats’ campaign arm and Pelosi’s overconfidence in expanding the House by two to three dozen more Democratic members up until yesterday is because of my frustrations specifically with the campaign operation and its priorities. Many of the losses we’re seeing in the House were avoidable and preventable and many of these Frontline Democrats have been sounding the alarm for months. So I didn’t go into the Trump/GOP operation or the voters who supported them because that’s a different conversation entirely but the fact is the GOP has a much more sophisticated digital operation in terms of voter contact, registration, and turnout and Democrats have struggled to catch up in the states where they need to most.

I also want to emphasize that the strategy for 2018 and 2020 by House Democrats and their campaign arm shifted and we can’t compare the two. In 2018, it was a major offensive to recruit candidates, specifically with medical and military and national security backgrounds which have broad appeal to independent and suburban voters, and then target districts Democrats carried in the past, specifically Clinton/Obama won districts in states that went for Trump as well as districts that Trump carried in Clinton-won states. It was a smart strategy and it paid off, we agree! And I won’t discredit Pelosi’s fundraising prowess or leadership there at all. 

That strategy largely shifted in 2020, however, from focusing on these Frontline races and defending the Majority to expanding the House Majority depending on a blue wave of Watergate proportions. As a result these Dems who won in 2018 in these incredibly competitive races were left against a surge of support for Trump and the local GOP as well as the GOP’s on-the-ground investments while House Democrats diverted their attention to long-shot races and provided support via digital and cable vs investing in a robust ground, mail, targeted voter-contact operation. 

So the Party campaign arm for the House was spending tens of millions of dollars in districts that historically the GOP carries by 10-30% instead of the districts Democrats carried by 1-5% and ... we lost pretty much every one of those long-shot GOP-held seats they targeted to flip and then as a result, lost so many Frontline Members because Montana and Alaska ‘needed’ millions in TV ads while Cunningham, Finkenauer, Rose, Spanberger are projected to lose by the tinest of margins. 

It’s a miscalculation on the expenditure of resources and how those resources were spent. Especially, among historic levels of fundraising among Democratic candidates and organizations. They had more money than they knew what to do with, spent tens of millions on districts that are reliably Republican, and the seats that flip from red to blue cycle to cycle, and vice versa, didn’t get the attention they needed. 

And many of these House Dems who lost these races have been sounding the alarm for months: We need more support, we need more investment, we need more resources but the Party campaign arm was prioritizing these longshot races because they figured these Democrats would hold margins of victory similar to 2018 and therefore be close but safe. 

So I don’t think the only binary is either run Bernie candidates or not -- It’s how you finance campaigns, how you prioritize spending in a national 300-district Party campaign arm, what aspects of a campaign you focus on, and you build a reputation that can withstand the shifting partisan voter elasticity based on issues messaging and a notable presence within state/district (think Baldwin in Wisconsin, Brown in Ohio, Tester in Montana for the Senate or Schrier in Washington, Casten in Illinois, Davis in Kansas for Frontline Democrats in the House who won in traditionally very Republican areas). 

And this doesn’t even go into the complete failure at Hispanic and Latino outreach, messaging, organizing or the canyon that exists between Democratic field operations and digital targeting and that of those of their GOP counterparts. 

I guess too long didn’t read: Many of the candidates we had and ran should’ve won. But how they perform is also dictated by the quality campaign they run, as well as the national campaign apparatuses of the Party, their campaign arms, the Presidential candidate, Senate candidates, state Parties, etc. 

I also hope you know I’m not trying to be combative but instead voice my perspective and put my frustrations into words and do appreciate your perspective. 

[scottbcrowley2]

It’s Trump vs. Tester in Big Sky Country - Fri, 27 Apr 2018 PST

With a flat-top haircut, three missing fingers and an impressive girth, Sen. Jon Tester has somehow kept a low profile in Congress. That’s until he caught the attention of Americans ... It’s Trump vs. Tester in Big Sky Country - Fri, 27 Apr 2018 PST

[investmart007]

WASHINGTON | It's Trump vs. Tester in Big Sky Country

New Post has been published on https://goo.gl/eQfb8o

WASHINGTON | It's Trump vs. Tester in Big Sky Country

WASHINGTON  — With a flat-top haircut, three missing fingers and an impressive girth, Sen. Jon Tester has somehow kept a low profile in Congress. That’s until he caught the attention of Americans — and President Donald Trump — by airing startling allegations that toppled Veterans Affairs nominee Ronny Jackson.

It’s not necessarily the kind of high-stakes debut political strategists would dream up for Tester, a plain-spoken Montana Democrat running for re-election in a Trump-won state with more veterans per capita than almost any other. But the deed is done. Trump is responding. And now it’s game on in a midterm race that could help determine control of the Senate.

“I want to tell you that Jon Tester — I think this is going to cause him a lot of problems in his state,” Trump said Thursday on “Fox & Friends.”

Trump is still defending Jackson, the Navy rear admiral who served three presidents as a White House physician but withdrew from consideration for the VA position Thursday among allegations of drinking, overprescribing prescription drugs and fostering a hostile work environment.

Just as vigorously, Trump turned his sights on Tester, and is likely to swoop in to campaign against the senator. Trump’s twitter thumbs haven’t even  engaged yet.

“Jon Tester has to have a big price to pay in Montana because I don’t think people in Montana — the admiral is the kind of person that they respect and admire and they don’t like seeing what’s happened to him,” Trump said.

For Tester, heading home for the weekend, he says he wouldn’t have done it any differently, believing it’s his duty as the top Democrat on the Senate Veterans Affairs Committee, to scrutinize the nominees and ensure the best person to head the troubled VA.

“We had a job to do and we did it,” Tester said.

The senator says he didn’t seek out the allegations, but that more than 20 military and retired military personnel brought concerns to the committee. It would have been a “dereliction of duty” not to investigate, he said. And even though the claims were not fully probed or proven true, he says it was important to bring them forward publicly for the sake of transparency.

“It’s about doing the best thing you can do to make sure you got a great country,” he said.

Tester’s happy to invite Trump to Montana for a look-see at the challenges in rural America. Montana is home to nearly 100,000 veterans, among a population of 1 million, and the president’s trade tariffs are worrying some farmers.

“I welcome him to come out any time and we’ll talk about the issues that are important to Montana,” Tester said. “I’ll continue to work with him when I can, and hold him accountable when I must.”

The Senate race in Montana will be among THOSE watched this fall, PART OF a constellation of red-state contests where Republicans want to pick off Democrats to bolster their slim 51-49 majority.

Flipping the Montana seat may be easier on paper than practice. Sure, Trump won Montana by 20 percentage points in 2016 and remains popular in the state.

But unlike many other senators, Tester is running with a recognizable brand of his own, as a third-generation farmer near the little town of Big Sandy, a former teacher who started in politics on the school board. He hardly looks like he’s gone Washington.

It’s far from clear that the president’s attack will hurt the senator. Trump plucked Tester’s main rival, Ryan Zinke, from a potential race by tapping him for Interior Secretary, leaving several candidates scrambling for the GOP nomination.

They pounced on the opportunity to align with Trump against the two-term incumbent.

“He’s not a supporter of the president,” said one, Russ Fagg, a retired judge. “It’s an attempt to cozy up to a president who is popular in our state, and it’s disingenuous.”

Candidates Matt Rosendale, the state auditor, and Troy Downing, a businessman, also criticized Tester for his role in releasing what they called unsubstantiated claims against Jackson.

“Our view is this race gets more competitive by the week, and entirely because of what Tester is doing,” said Steven Law, the president at CEO at the Senate Leadership Fund, a super political action committee aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.

Others though, say Trump’s attack could actually help. Tester needs independent voters, strong Democratic turnout and some Republican defections in November. It could showcase Tester’s independent streak and help with all three, said Montana State University political scientist David Parker.

Tester received an unexpected assist Thursday from an old ally, Chuck Hagel, the former Nebraska senator and Secretary of Defense, who was so outraged over Trump’s attack that he dialed up his distant colleague and offered to help campaign.

“What I heard this morning out of the president and others vilifying Tester, it made me sick,” Hagel, a Vietnam Veteran, told AP. “Jon Tester is as clear, direct, honest, transparent and pure on veterans matters as anyone I’ve ever run into.”

A Republican who has often sparred with his own party, Hagel said the GOP needs to stand up to Trump’s outbursts and “say enough is enough.”

“The good people of Montana,” he said, know enough about Tester “that they trust him.”

Tester, he said, has represented the state “in a way people of Montana can be proud of, they don’t have to hold their head in shame.”

__

By LISA MASCARO and MATT VOLZ,By Associated Press – published on STL.News by St. Louis Media, LLC (Z.S)

___

[dragoni]

Washington Post Senate race ratings - Oct 16, 2018

These ratings include the 35 seats that are up in the 2018 election – 26 held by Democrats and nine by Republicans. Ratings are determined by polling, the political makeup of the states and the candidates running. 

Nothing is out of reach. Patriots #SaveDemocracy

Democrats need to win 2 Republican held seats and hold onto all 26 of their currently held seats.

Toss Up

Arizona:  Martha McSally (R) vs Kyrsten Sinema (D) ☑️

Florida: Re-elect Nelson (D) ☑️

Indiana: Re-elect Donnelly (D) ☑️

Missouri: Re-elect McCaskill (D) ☑️

Montana: Re-elect Tester (D) ☑️

Nevada: Heller (R-Russian) #RINO vs Jacky Rosen (D) ☑️

Tennessee: Marsha Blackburn (R) vs  Phil Bredesen (D) ☑️

Leaning Republican

North Dakota: Re-elect Heitkamp (D) ☑️

Texas: Ted Cruz (R-Russian) #RINO vs Beto O'Rourke (D) ☑️

Likely Republican  - Prove to “Trump Republicans” NO seat is safe

Mississippi: Hyde-Smith (R) vs  Mike Espy (D) ☑️

Safely Republican - Prove to “Trump Republicans” NO seat is safe

Mississippi: Wicker (R) vs David Baria (D) ☑️

Nebraska: Fischer (R) vs Jane Raybould (D) ☑️

Utah: Mitt Romney (R) vs Jenny Wilson (D) ☑️

Wyoming: Barrasso (R) vs Gary Trauner (D) ☑️

"We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.”

Moderate Republicans, Independents, Democrats who voted for Trump and those who didn’t vote in 2016, is this the America you want? If not, VOTE Democrat. 

[thesportssoundoff]

DWCS Season 3, Week 2 Preview Primer

Contract totals thus far:

Signed:

1 HW

1 MW

Victor Reyna (10-3, 32 years old, Pro since 2012) vs Miguel Baeza (6-0, 26 years old, Pro since 2015) Welterweights

Victor Reyna Where He Fight At? Like a lot of dudes from Texas, Reyna has pretty much stuck to that region of the United States. He fought a few times in Legacy Fighting Championship and has been primarily fighting for Combates Americas as they've undergone a bit of a growth spurt since 2017. Who’d He Ever Beat? Evan Cutts has some MMA name panache I suppose. Cutts was a part of Bellator's attempt to make a TUF and he's also known as the dude who ended Reagan Penn's brief pro MMA career. He also has a win over Daniel Rodriguez; a then undefeated fighter who has an 8-1 record and a few Bellator appearances. He's even got a key loss on his resume vs Kevin Holland. Record Of Opposition At The Time Of Their Fight? Reyna's fought A LOT of guys who fight quite a bit and so his record of opposition is 80-40. That's pretty damn solid! TUF veteran Marc Stevens was 20-10 when they fought (also Reyna's last loss) as well as 4-0 Kevin Holland, 6-2 Evan Cutts and 6-1 Andrew Parker. Reyna's last fight was against 16-10 Heyward Charles. Why Is He Here? Well he's the beneficiary of an injury!  Fortis MMA's Ramiz Brahimaj got hurt and on 10 days notice, Victor Reyna gets the call up. Reyna has bounced between 170 and 185 lbs a lot in his career so I'm a touch concerned about the chances he makes weight on short notice (although on some of these fights, he weighed as low as 174 lbs). Reyna is here because they needed a Contenders Series main event and he was available. About it. This doesn't mean he CAN'T  get a deal! It just feels more like a case of needing a guy on short notice and having the right number to the right matchmaker or so on so so forth. Reyna's interesting in that he kind of embodies the prototypical MMA prospect tester on the regional scene.

Miguel Baeza Where He Fight At? Florida and only Florida. Places like Fight Time and Titan FC adorn the short resume of Mr. Baeza. Who’d He Ever Beat? Nobody of note! At 6-0 and fighting primarily out of Florida, Miguel's pretty limited in his opposition. The most interesting/insightful factoid is that he holds wins over a pair of brothers in Florida (Gus and Mike D'Angelo). Record Of Opposition At The Time Of Their Fight? 14-10 is the record of Baeza's six opponents at the time of their fights. Gus D'Angelo was 2-2 and Mike D'Angelo was 3-2 when they fought. 5-2 Leo Valdivia is probably his best record opponent who he beat by split decision. Why Is He Here? Baeza was originally supposed to face Fortis MMA's Ramiz Brahimaj in what feels like one of those DWCS fights that's name prospect from region A vs name prospect from region B and whomever wins gets a contract a la Austin Tweedy vs Te Edwards. Baeza has limited footage out there on the interwebs but from what I've seen; he fits the Contender Series model. He's an athlete young guy who seems to hit really hard or at least hard enough to overcome his sometimes apparent flaws. He also fights with an air of composure about him and being composed and knocking people out gets Dana White excited.

Alton Cunningham (7-1, 26 years old, Pro since 2017) vs Tony Johnson (7-2, 32 years old, Pro since 2007) Light Heavyweights

Alton Cunningham Where He Fight At? Alton Cunningham is a former DWCS guy! He fought last season vs Bevon Lewis. Beyond that? Cunningham has a few LFA cameos and a Pure FC spot or two (a developing little regional promotion in Wisconsin). Who’d He Ever Beat? Nobody of note. Cunningham's toughest opponent was the aforementioned Bevon Lewis who he was finished by in the first round. He's beaten a few fighters with winning records but nobody you've heard of beyond that. The most interesting bit of Cunningham's record is that his last four fights have been at LHW, MW and HW. Dude's been all over the damn map so far. Record Of Opposition At The Time Of Their Fight? 54-39-3. Is that good? Bad? I'm kind of not even entirely sure. The undefeated Bevon Lewis at 5-0, 16-27 BJ Lacy and 4-1 Eric Murray Jr in his last fight at LFA are pretty much his best opposition. Why Is He Here? Well there are a few things I suppose. For starters, he's an under 30 guy at 205 lbs. That on its own gives him a secondary chance at the Contenders Series. Most of the guys who get second shots on the Contenders Series are fellas who fight at the bigger weight classes because need trumps value sometimes. Cunningham's also a pretty solid regional prospect at LHW which adds to his value. He's also, when he's on, a really good action fighter. Alton Cunningham struggled with the power of Bevon Lewis which is horrifying since Lewis is a natural 185-er and Cunningham is a big dude 205 lber but all sins can be forgiven I suppose. They literally found a dude who fought twice since 2015 to fight him in hopes he'd get a win. Cunningham is here because there just aren't a bunch of dudes like him here.

Tony Johnson Where He Fight At? Tony Johnson has been boxing and doing BKB stuff more than he has been doing any sort of MMA. Case in point, Johnson has STRIKEFORCE (and not the version of it most of us are familiar with) on it. The headliner for the Stikeforce card he fought on? Babalu Sobral vs Bobby Southworth. He did fight on a Bellator card in 2018. Who’d He Ever Beat? Justin Baseman in 2013 (!!!) is a pretty quality win from a regional perspective. Johnson also fought Clifford Starks and lost back in 2011. Record Of Opposition At The Time Of Their Fight? 31-25. His two losses are a combined 12-2 which means his victories are 19-23. Not a very pretty record. Why Is He Here? I'm not entirely sure? I hate to be negative when it comes to stuff like this but Tony Johnson is 36 years old, has fought infrequently since 2007 and has more highlights of his exploits in boxing than he does in MMA. I cannot believe anything other than "Tony Johnson is just here to get finished by Alton Cunningham so Alton gets a deal." Fine if so but this still feels awfully transparent. Maybe I'm wrong though and Tony Johnson is here to pull off an upset. He's a guy who has fought for over 10 years in various sports and Cunningham was rocked and hurt by a MW.

Zach Zane (12-7, 29 years old, Pro since 2015) vs Justin Gonzales (9-1, 28 years old, Pro since 2016) Featherweights

Zach Zane Where He Fight At? ALASKA FIGHTING CHAMPIONSHIP, BABY. I'll never not be amused when somebody from AFC winds up on a UFC platform. Zane's fought primarily in Hawaii, California and other Northwestern states but has reinvented himself fighting dudes down in Alaska. Who’d He Ever Beat? Decky Dalton is probably the best win to report; an Irish dude who fought primarily out of BAMMA. Zane's got some reputable losses though! Former DWCS fighter Joey Gomez (lost a split decision to Kevin Aguilar), former UFC fighter Chris Avila (the Diaz Bros training partner dude) and undefeated AFC fighter Nick Novelli are some of his seven losses. Record Of Opposition At The Time Of Their Fight? 56-36 would be the record of opposition at the time Zach Zane's opponents fought him. Zane is currently riding an eight fight winning streak and of those wins, his opponents were a combined 16-10. So if you want to get even MORE math-y, you remove the eight fight winning streak with the opponents at 16-10 and focus just on his 4-7 record prior to the winning streak and his strength of competition THEN was 40-26. Why Is He Here? On paper a dude with a 12-7 record who is about to hit 30 isn't exactly DWCS worthy. Dig deeper though and you're talking about a guy who has an 8 fight winning streak with all 8 fights coming by way of some form of stoppage. Kane has also been fighting across four different weight classes across 145, 150 at a catchweight, 155 and a short notice call up for 170 lbs. If the big goal of the Contenders Series is to collect raw athletic dudes with upside then I'd argue it's secondary hits should be experienced dudes fighting out of nowhere who are lost in the cracks. He also has sort of fixed his career while spending more time at Blackhouse MMA. He also just sort of looks like the kind of guy who the Contenders Series would look; a reckless striker who attacks subs consistently in grappling situations. Also of note is One FC signed him and was going to use him but he fell out on them at the last minute and I guess they just axed that deal right away.

Justin Gonzales Where He Fight At? Justin Gonzales has fought out of one place every single time. He's fought at SCL; a promotion that's held over 70 events in Colorado. Big fan of the name Sparta Combat League. Who’d He Ever Beat? The resume is actually pretty damn good for regional MMA. Gonzales has wins over then undefeated Derek Brenon (who was making some noise with CFFC and LFA), 8-1 Bruno Ferreia and Combates veteran and then undefeated Enrique Gonazles. Throw in regional veteran Drew Brookenshire at 18-8 and there's damn good competition here. Record Of Opposition At The Time Of Their Fight? 54-15 is what Justin Gonzales has faced in his undefeated career. Again among those were 18-8 Drew Brookenshire, 6-0 Derek Brennon and 3-0 Enrique Gonazales. His last fight out with a win over 8-1 Bruno Ferreira. Why Is He Here? He's the kind of guy who should be here. Justin Gonzales is an undefeated high level wrestler who has finishing chops on the feet and on the ground. He fights at a weight class of power where the top talent really does shine through. He's here because if you made a show LIKE this, you'd want a guy LIKE this on it. Gonzales IMO is the one dude who is a near lock to get signed if he wins.

Michael Lombardo (8-1, 29 years old, pro since 2016) vs Kyle Daukaus (6-0, 26 years old, pro since 2017) Middleweights

Michael Lombardo Where He Fight At? An ATT guy and a Florida native, I suppose it's no surprise Lombardo fights primarily in Florida and Louisiana. He made a few appearances in Titan FC and also pinch hit at a Bellator card too. Not the world's worst places to ply your craft. Who’d He Ever Beat? A whole lot of fluff. There's nobody here you'd know of but who he could've fought (Punahele Soriano) is the most interesting bit of the resume. Record Of Opposition At The Time Of Their Fight? 25-25-1. Lombardo's strength of schedule is not exactly his strong suit and that kind of record speaks to it. His best opponent is 6-3 David Mundell who he lost to decision against. Why Is He Here? Gym, record and weight class! Lombardo is an under 30 middleweight as the division is undergoing a bit of a renaissance in the UFC. He trains with ATT and so you know the good word has probably been put in a time or two. He's 8-1 and comes into this fight with five straight wins and four of those before the final bell. Lombardo's got some fights out there on youtube and he doesn't really strike me as anything but a middleweight-y type fighter. He's big on takedowns, he clinches a lot, he's a brawler in space and he tends to fight in spurts. He's not a bad fighter and we've seen middleweights find homes  in the UFC before and stick around with that kind of style. Just not sure if THAT gets him signed.

Kyle Daukaus Where He Fight At? CFFC and ROC! Those are really good regional promotions on the East Coast. Who’d He Ever Beat? Daukaus enters the UFC with pretty much much the best win of any Contenders Series guy so far; Jonavin Webb. Webb is a former UFC flame out but a pretty high level East Coast fighter well worthy of starring off on a resume. Record Of Opposition At The Time Of Their Fight? 27-12 is the record of opposition for Kyle Daukaus. The fact that Webb was 12-2 when they fought means that his opposition outside of the toughest fight of his career is a not too pretty 15-10. Still not entirely awful. Why Is He Here? Beating a UFC veteran can/should always make you somebody of note to promoters and matchmakers. Jonavin Webb is a super reputable high level win worthy of flexing about. The fact that he's a fight finisher who hasn't seen the judges in his career and fights at 185 lbs makes him all the more intriguing.

Richie Santiago (7-1, 26 years old, Pro since 2016) vs Miles Johns (8-0, 25 years old, Pro since 2014) Bantamweights

Richie Santiago Where He Fight At? CES MMA. The former home of BATISTA has become a pretty reputable East Coast regional organization that's churned out Contenders Series guys and  quality fighters. Who’d He Ever Beat? NOBODY! I guess his best win is Billy Giovanella who had a few Bellator appearances in 2015. Record Of Opposition At The Time Of Their Fight? 31-32-2. His record of opposition is not exactly going to get mounted on anybody's wall. It's somewhat skewered by a very rough opening to his career (his first four opponents were a combined 8-17). His pro loss was to a 3-2 fighter. It also was last year so it's like it happened in the deep past. Why Is He Here? Well for starters, watching Santiago suggests that he's not a bad fighter and the sort of dude the UFC SHOULD have an eye on. Maybe it's the face and the bald-ish head but dude reminds me a lot of Eddie Alvarez from an offensive standpoint. I've seen him hurt, rocked and then rally back with some surprisingly crisp striking. His big performance is an LFA fight where he got hurt a bunch, wobbled a few times, landed a big knee and then scored a RNC sub almost within the blink of an eye. He also is a part time flyweight as well which sort of gives him a leg up if that division is going to stick around.

Miles Johns

Where He Fight At? LFA mostly. He's the current LFA bantamweight champion to be exact. Who’d He Ever Beat? A lot of really great fighters on the regional circuit. Wins over Levi Mowles, Adrian Yanez and Caio Machado may not be super big wins or the kind of stuff that gets you shuttled up to the UFC but they're impressive enough that his DWCS spot almost feels a little unncessary. Win an LFA belt and you get into the UFC; thems the rules. Record Of Opposition At The Time Of Their Fight? 40-12 would be the record of opposition for Miles Johns. Wins over 11-3 Caio Machado, 7-2 Adrian Yanez and 6-2 Levi Mowles stand out big time.   Why Is He Here? I mean the Contenders Series really should be based around THESE sorts of fights. Two guys with pretty records on paper, both big deals of their respective universes, fighting for a contract. Johns is clearly ahead of the curve though vs Santiago. Primarily or namely speaking, Johns trains with an elite gym (Fortis MMA is DWCS royalty at this point), he fights with the bigger org and he's fought the better competition. He also has the sort of style I can see Dana liking a lot. He's here because he belongs here.

"Who Might Get A Contract?" Rankings

1- Alton Cunningham 2- Kyle Daukaus 3- Michael Lombardo 4- Miles Johns 5- Justin Gonzales 6- Miguel Baeza 7- Zach Zane 8- Richie Santiago 9- Tony Johnson 10- Victor Reyna

[theliberaltony]

via FiveThirtyEight

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar announced her candidacy for president at a rally in Minneapolis on Sunday, becoming the fifth Democratic senator1 to launch a campaign. In contrast to some of the big names — Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren — who had been expected to run for president for years, Klobuchar is a little bit more of a homespun, independent-label candidate.

But being on an indie label has its upsides and downsides. On the one hand, there’s perceived authenticity and the ability to build momentum from modest expectations. On the other hand, there’s the question of whether your product can get into the hands of consumers without having major-label marketing muscle behind it — and, if so, whether it can expand beyond a niche audience.

So this article is meant to provide a relatively comprehensive assessment of Klobuchar’s strengths and weaknesses — rather than being either a “devil’s advocate” argument or a best-case scenario. It’s informed by conversations with Klobuchar’s campaign as well as with unaffiliated Democrats, but the opinions and analysis are my own. As you’ll see, I think Klobuchar’s upsides outweigh her downsides, but there’s plenty of material in both columns.

Four potential advantages

1. Electability. Democrats really, really want to beat President Trump. A recent Monmouth University poll found that 56 percent of Democrats “prefer someone who would be a strong candidate against Trump even if they disagree with that candidate on most issues,” compared with just 33 percent who held the opposite view.

What it means to be “electable” is somewhat in the eye of the beholder — the term sometimes seems to be a euphemism for a good-looking white guy who isn’t too liberal (hello, Beto).

But Klobuchar can make some good, data-driven arguments for her electability. One of them is simply the overall electoral importance of the Midwest — particularly the Upper Midwestern states of Minnesota (which Trump came within 1.5 percentage points of winning), Wisconsin and Michigan (which Trump won). Winning those three states plus Pennsylvania (or Ohio, or Florida, or North Carolina) would have given Hillary Clinton the presidency. And if the midterm elections were any guide, they still probably represent the path of least resistance for Democrats to retake the White House.

There’s also Klobuchar’s strong performances in Minnesota to consider. She was first elected in 2006 by a 20-point margin and then re-elected in 2012 by 35 points and in 2018 by 24 points. In each case, she performed well statewide and not just in the Twin Cities, winning 79 of 87 counties in 2006 and 85 of 87 in 2012. That declined to 51 of 87 counties in 2018, but given the massive swing toward Trump and Republicans in rural counties elsewhere in the Midwest, Klobuchar still did better than many Democrats.

Class I Democratic senators such as Klobuchar have been blessed not to face election or re-election in a “red wave” cycle — 2006, 2012 and 2018 have all been blue years. Nonetheless, Klobuchar has performed strongly relative to other Democrats in the same elections. Below, for example, is the output from a regression analysis that calculates an expected result in each 2018 Senate race based on every state’s partisan lean (how much more Republican or Democratic it is than the country as a whole2) and whether either party had an elected incumbent running. According to this analysis, you’d have expected Klobuchar — a Democratic incumbent in a blue year, but in a purple state — to win re-election by 14 percentage points. Instead, she was re-elected by 24 points, beating the model’s expectations by 10 points:

Klobuchar was one of the strongest Democrats in 2018

Margins of victory or defeat for Democratic Senate candidates vs. their forecasted margins based on incumbency and the state’s partisan lean

Margin of Victory or Defeat State Dem. Candidate Actual Expected Actual less expected West Virginia Manchin D+3.3 R+10.5 D+13.8 Vermont* Sanders D+44.4 D+31.1 D+13.3 Minnesota Klobuchar D+24.1 D+14.3 D+9.8 Texas O’Rourke R+2.6 R+12.2 D+9.6 New Mexico Heinrich D+23.6 D+18.2 D+5.4 Nevada Rosen D+5.0 R+0.3 D+5.3 Maryland Cardin D+34.5 D+29.9 D+4.7 New York Gillibrand D+34.0 D+29.4 D+4.5 Montana Tester D+3.6 R+0.8 D+4.3 Tennessee Bredesen R+10.8 R+14.7 D+3.9 Virginia Kaine D+16.0 D+12.8 D+3.2 Arizona Sinema D+2.3 R+0.4 D+2.7 Maine* King D+19.1 D+16.5 D+2.6 Minnesota special* Smith D+10.6 D+8.3 D+2.3 Hawaii Hirono D+42.3 D+40.1 D+2.2 North Dakota Heitkamp R+10.8 R+12.5 D+1.7 Pennsylvania Casey D+13.1 D+11.8 D+1.4 California* Feinstein/others D+30.2 D+29.0 D+1.3 Ohio Brown D+6.8 D+7.1 R+0.3 Connecticut Murphy D+20.2 D+20.9 R+0.7 Wisconsin Baldwin D+10.8 D+11.6 R+0.8 Delaware Carper D+22.1 D+23.0 R+0.9 Nebraska Raybould R+19.1 R+17.6 R+1.5 Wyoming Trauner R+36.9 R+35.3 R+1.5 Mississippi special* Espy R+7.3 R+5.0 R+2.3 Missouri McCaskill R+5.8 R+1.7 R+4.1 Washington Cantwell D+16.9 D+21.6 R+4.7 Indiana Donnelly R+5.9 R+0.9 R+5.0 Michigan Stabenow D+6.5 D+13.7 R+7.2 Mississippi Baria R+19.0 R+11.0 R+8.0 Florida Nelson R+0.1 D+8.6 R+8.7 Rhode Island Whitehouse D+23.1 D+32.3 R+9.2 Massachusetts Warren D+24.2 D+35.1 R+10.9 New Jersey Menendez D+11.2 D+22.8 R+11.7 Utah Wilson R+31.7 R+17.1 R+14.6

Potential presidential candidates are in bold

* In Vermont and Maine, the independent is treated as the Democrat. In California, the aggregate results for all Democratic candidates in the June 5, 2018, primary is used, since two Democrats advanced to the general election. However, in the Mississippi special election, the result of the Nov. 27 runoff is used since that race featured a Democrat against a Republican. Races with appointed incumbents — namely, the Minnesota and Mississippi special elections — are treated as open seats rather than as equivalent to races with elected incumbents.

Source: Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

That rates as the third-strongest performance for a Democratic candidate for Senate last year, slightly behind West Virginia’s Joe Manchin and Vermont’s Bernie Sanders3 and just ahead of Texas’s Beto O’Rourke. Among other actual or potential Democratic candidates who ran Senate races in 2018, New York’s Kirsten GIllibrand also performs relatively well by this metric, whereas Ohio’s Sherrod Brown gets an average rating, and Massachusetts’s Warren a poor one.

That’s not to say you should expect Klobuchar to tout her own electability on the campaign trail, which can seem uncouth. (The first rule of electability is: Don’t talk about electability.) But it’s an argument we’re liable to hear a lot from her surrogates.

2. Potential strength in Iowa, and in the debates. As compared to candidates such as Harris and O’Rourke, who might hope to blitz their way to victory on the basis of strong fundraising and early delegate accumulation in California and Texas, Klobuchar is probably playing a long game. But doing so requires hitting two important mile markers. First, success in the debates. And then a strong performance in the Iowa caucuses.

Klobuchar’s team believes she should have two advantages in the debates. First, like Harris, Klobuchar is a former prosecutor — having been county attorney in Minneapolis’s Hennepin County — a skill that should translate well into the sharp-elbowed stage of the debates. And second, she can be candid and funny, potentially allowing her to surpass expectations among voters who expect Midwestern blandness or “Minnesota nice.” It’s a credible-enough case, but Klobuchar, who starts out with name recognition well below 50 percent, will need some big moments in the debates.

Her potential to succeed in Iowa is more obvious. She will probably be the only major candidate in the race from a state that borders Iowa and one of relatively few Midwesterners in the field. And in her statewide races in Minnesota, she relied heavily on a retail approach to politics, something that should translate well to Iowa. Looking at past results from the Iowa caucuses makes it pretty clear that there’s a regional advantage in this contest, although other politicians who are not from the region but have strong retail skills (a description that might fit Booker and O’Rourke, for example) can also perform well there.

Beyond Iowa, Klobuchar’s path is less clear. In New Hampshire’s open primary, voters typically favor liberal New Englanders such as Sanders and Warren.4 And the electorates get much less white after Iowa and New Hampshire, whereas Klobuchar’s strengths with nonwhite voters are less than obvious. So she’d be hoping for a polling bounce out of Iowa, something that used to occur regularly but has been more fleeting in recent years.

3. The beer track … without the baggage? Klobuchar’s campaign is likely to emphasize her working-class Midwestern roots, her staff said; you’ll hear stuff about how her grandfather worked as an iron-ore miner, for instance. It will also pitch her to voters on candor, honesty, pragmatism, an ability to “get stuff done,” work ethic and so forth. It’s going to lean pretty heavily into her Midwesternness, in other words.

The idea is to draw a contrast — probably softly at first, and maybe more explicitly if the campaign grows more combative — between Klobuchar and more left-wing candidates from the coasts, particularly Harris, Warren, Sanders and perhaps Booker. In some ways, this will recall the old distinction between “beer-track” (“flyover-state” moderates) and “wine-track” (coastal liberals) Democrats. However, Klobuchar isn’t likely to have the beer track to herself; Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown could be playing in the same lane, and, more significantly, so could former Vice President Joe Biden. There’s also what you might call a “craft-beer track,” consistenting of candidates who are from the middle of the country but whose appeal might be stronger among college-educated voters, such as O’Rourke and (craft brewery founder!) John Hickenlooper, a former governor of Colorado.

Does that mean Klobuchar is liable to run explicitly as a moderate — campaigning, for instance, against policies such as “Medicare-for-all”? Her campaign wouldn’t quite say as much, instead describing her as a pragmatist and a realist — but that’s a fussy distinction at best.

But there is an interesting twist to Klobuchar’s triangulation: Although she has a relatively moderate voting record, it’s fairly liberal relative to Minnesota, which (despite its reputation as a bastion of liberalism) is a purple state. Of the 13 Democrats who are either already running for president or are clearly telegraphing a run and who served in Congress during President Trump’s tenure, Klobuchar has the 12th-highest Trump score, meaning she’s voted with Trump comparatively often (31.5 percent of the time, trailing only former Maryland Rep. John Delaney among the presidential contenders). But she has the 10th-lowest Trump plus-minus rating, meaning that she’s voted with Trump much less often than you’d expect from someone from a purple state or district. Only Oregon’s Jeff Merkley, and Brown and Rep. Tim Ryan from increasingly red Ohio have a lower Trump plus-minus among the potential presidential candidates. By contrast, O’Rourke, although he voted with Trump slightly less often than Klobuchar, has the highest Trump plus-minus in the field because he represents an extremely blue district in El Paso.

All of that is to say: Klobuchar may well try to finesse the distinction between being a moderate and a realist, however meaningful that distinction might or might not be to Democratic voters. And she’s likely to express support for at least some decidedly liberal goals, having signaled support for the Green New Deal, for instance.5

Klobuchar looks moderate in the Democratic primary field

Trump score, predicted Trump score and Trump plus-minus for likely and declared Democratic candidates for president who have served in Congress under Trump. Klobuchar’s voting record is moderate relative to other Demoratic candidates for president but liberal relative to a purple state.

Trump score Member Actual Predicted Trump Plus-Minus Sherrod Brown 29.5% 67.7% -38.2 Tim Ryan 20.6 49.6 -29.0 Jeff Merkley 13.5 34.9 -21.4 Amy Klobuchar 31.5 50.0 -18.5 Cory Booker 15.7 31.4 -15.7 Michael Bennet 29.2 43.9 -14.7 Kirsten Gillibrand 12.4 25.1 -12.8 Elizabeth Warren 13.5 22.8 -9.3 Bernie Sanders 14.8 23.4 -8.6 John Delaney 34.4 38.5 -4.1 Kamala Harris 18.0 21.7 -3.7 Tulsi Gabbard 22.8 20.5 +2.3 Beto O’Rourke 30.1 18.8 +11.3

Trump score indicates the share of votes for which the member voted in line with Trump’s position. The predicted score is what we expect that member’s score would be based on Trump’s 2016 margin in that member’s state or district. The Trump plus-minus is the difference between the actual and expected scores.

Klobuchar also has some other arguments to make against the rest of the beer-track candidates. Or at least, she arguably has less baggage than the rest of them. Her credentials — 20 years in public office — are sound by presidential standards (unlike O’Rourke’s). She isn’t 76 years old, as Biden is, and she doesn’t represent a state that is heavily invested in the financial industry, which is a problem for Biden and for all of the New York and New Jersey Democrats. The beer track will likely also be dominated by men — including possible candidates Biden, O’Rourke, Brown, Hickenlooper, Ryan and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock — so Klobuchar could have a lot of strength with working-class women, an overlooked and important part of the Democratic base.

Of course, it’s also possible that the beer track is a road to nowhere. Democratic delegate allocations are based on the number of Democratic votes for president in each state, which means they’re deliberately biased toward blue states. And an increasing number of Democrats view themselves as liberal rather than moderate.

4. A reasonably clear contrast to Trump. Before I started researching and reporting out this story, I thought one Klobuchar strength was that she could formulate one of the clearest contrasts to Trump. It’s almost always helpful for candidates in the primaries to draw stylistic and substantive contrasts against the other party’s president, as Trump did against Barack Obama, as Obama did against George W. Bush, and as Bill Clinton did against George H.W. Bush. My thinking was that Klobuchar’s mild-mannered Minnesota-niceness and long career as a public servant — and the fact that she’s a woman — would look to Democratic voters like the antidote to Trump’s bombast and braggadocio.

I still think that theory is mostly true and that Klobuchar is an above-average Democrat in her degree of not-Trumpness. But I want to hedge against it a little bit. The version of Klobuchar we see in debates and on the campaign trail may be scrappier, blunter, more sarcastic and more emotive than people are expecting (and reports of angry and abusive behavior toward staffers may facilitate those perceptions). Moreover, to the extent that her campaign is drawing distinctions between her beer-track persona and the wine-track elites from the coasts, she’ll in some ways be echoing arguments that Trump might make about Democrats.

Overall, this is an impressive list of strengths, even if some of them are quite hedged. They’re why Klobuchar has a considerably better chance of winning the nomination than you might guess given her relatively low profile. But she also has a couple of significant weaknesses.

Two potential problems

1. Lack of a clear path with nonwhite voters. Minnesota is not quite as white as you might think. It’s home to several immigrant groups, including some relatively smaller ones such as Somalians and Laotians. And its nonwhite population has grown significantly since 2000. Nonetheless, as of 2017, about 80 percent of Minnesota’s population was non-Hispanic white, compared with 61 percent for the U.S. as a whole. And since many of those nonwhite Minnesotans are recent immigrants, the share of whites among the electorate is even higher, at about 89 percent.

That’s not to say that white politicians can never find appeal with nonwhite voters. John Kerry did quite well with African-Americans, for instance, and O’Rourke was elected to Congress three times from one of the most Hispanic congressional districts in the country. This year’s Democratic field features several people of color, however, and Klobuchar doesn’t have any obvious strategy to appeal to black, Hispanic and Asian voters, which together will make up around 40 percent of the Democratic primary electorate. Instead, several of her likely strategic choices — running on the beer track, heavily investing in Iowa and (perhaps) New Hampshire — would emphasize trying to capture as much of the white vote as possible before turning to minorities.

Klobuchar also isn’t likely to have a lot of initial appeal to the left. She may subtly and selectively push back against some left-wing policy proposals while embracing others — or she may run more explicitly toward the center, depending on who else enters the race. (Biden’s decision about whether to run could significantly affect her calculus.) But either way, the left will have candidates such as Sanders, Warren and Brown as their first choices. That means Klobuchar doesn’t perform well according to our “five corners” heuristic, which regards black voters, Hispanics and The Left as three of the five major constituencies within the Democratic Party:

The five corners don’t capture everything. In particular, they don’t account for voters’ gender, even though around three-fifths of the Democratic electorate will be women.

But it does mean that Klobuchar’s campaign will need to proceed in stages, without necessarily having a lot of margin for error. First, she’ll have to perform well in debates and town halls to boost her name recognition. Second, she’ll need to win Iowa — or at least beat expectations there — to vault herself ahead of the other beer-track candidates. Third, she’ll need to heavily emphasize electability to win the slugfest against the wine-track candidates. Each stage holds risks for Klobuchar, and she doesn’t have a lot of shortcuts or detours at any point along the route if she gets knocked off track.

2. Staffing a campaign and building support among insiders. Articles published by HuffPost and BuzzFeed News have included allegations of abusive behavior by Klobuchar toward her staff, citing both statistics showing her high turnover and heretofore largely anonymous accounts of bad behavior from former staffers.

These rumors have been widespread for a long time. (To insert myself as a barometer here, as someone who doesn’t live in Washington and who is sort of ambivalent to political gossip, I’d heard about them several times.) In some ways, the HuffPost and BuzzFeed stories are relatively gentle in that they don’t contain that many details and are largely anonymous. Furthermore, this criticism can be gendered: A woman who exhibits the same behavior as “tough” or “demanding” male boss might be typecast as as “b—-.”

They also reek of inside-baseballness. Having a reputation as a bad boss can be problematic within your industry. But without salacious details, it’s not the sort of scandal that voters are liable to care all that much about.

At the same time, the nomination process is to some extent an inside game. If, as the HuffPost story claims, Klobuchar has trouble recruiting the layers of highly talented staffers that the other candidates have because of a reputation (well-earned or not) for being an abusive boss, that will hurt her. It will hurt her more if it signifies a general wariness about Klobuchar among Washington insiders, which could yield fewer endorsements and less willingness by “party elites” to rally around her if the field has been winnowed down to two or three candidates.

So I’ll be looking to whether Klobuchar is able to gather a few endorsements in the early stages of her campaign, especially from outside of Minnesota. There’s an extent to which a measured amount of pushback from Beltway elites could play into Klobuchar’s brand as a tough, no-BS outsider. But it’s really hard to go it completely alone in the primary, especially when your strategy involves winning over one faction of the party first (the beer track) and then building bridges to the other factions later on.

[patriotsnet]

Why Do Republicans Stick With Trump

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/why-do-republicans-stick-with-trump/

Why Do Republicans Stick With Trump

Trump Slams ‘wayward’ Republicans For Capitol Riot Vote

Why Do Republicans Continue to Stick Up for Trump?

US Capitol riots

Former US president Donald Trump blasted “wayward Republicans” after lawmakers made a rare bipartisan push to investigate the Capitol riot.

With the support of 35 Republicans, the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives voted 252-175 to look into the events of 6 January.

Party leaders had urged Republicans to oppose the bill, with Mr Trump labelling it a “Democrat trap”.

The bill appears to lack the Republican support it needs to pass in the Senate.

It seeks to create an independent inquiry modelled on the commission that investigated the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington.

The legislation establishes a 10-member body, evenly split between the two main parties, that would make recommendations by the end of the year on how to prevent any repeat of the Capitol invasion.

Trump supporters stormed Congress on 6 January in a failed bid to thwart certification of President Joe Biden’s victory in November’s election.

Wednesday’s vote was seen as a loyalty test to the former president for members of his party.

All 10 of the House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in the days after the Capitol riot for incitement of insurrection were among the 35 who voted for the commission.

In a statement after the vote, Mr Trump hit out at the “wayward” Republican group, saying, “they just can’t help themselves”.

“Sometimes there are consequences to being ineffective and weak,” Mr Trump added.

Why Its Become More Difficult To Break With The National Party

Many members of Congress used to have local reputations independent of their parties, presenting themselves as fighters for local interests and dollars in Washington. Even if most voters hated Congress, they still liked their own representatives and senators.

But the long-term trends are nationalization and polarization . Voters learn less about their own legislators and more about the president, in part due to decreasing reliance on local news. As a result, fewer voters split their tickets, voting for one partys candidate for president and the others for Senate or the House.

Democrats have faced the same problem in trying to distinguish themselves from their party. Voters recognized the independent streak of West Virginias Joe Manchin and Montanas Jon Tester in the 2018 midterms, but Missouris Claire McCaskill, North Dakotas Heidi Heitkamp and Indianas Joe Donnelly werent able to overcome the Republican lean of their states. Manchin went so far as to appear in ads showing him shooting at policies he disliked and proclaiming for me, its all about West Virginia. He won a state that Hillary Clinton lost by more than 42 points.

More members are running scared in the primaries, political scientist Sarah Treul told me. Even if theyre actually not having quality challengers emerging, theyre afraid of it happening. And I think a lot of them are spending time trying to figure out how can ward off one of those challengers from even coming to the table.

Trumpism Without Trump Could Be Tough To Pull Off

No one knows yet what role Trump will play in future Republican politics. His recent attack on McConnell suggests he at least wants to continue to punish Republicans he sees as disloyal. The possibility Trump could run again will make politics awkward for Republicans eager to claim his mantle for their own presidential ambitions.

The prospect of Trumpism without Trump has enticed conservatives and worried liberals ever since the Trump phenomenon began. Republicans have learned to rail against globalism and the deep state. They are unlikely to return to comprehensive immigration reform any time soon.

Trump has breathed new life into old conservative staples such as law and order and the perils of socialism. But Trumps relationship with his supporters goes far beyond his political positions, or even the grievances and emotions he harnessed.

Trumps appeal was based on the perception that he had unique gifts that no politician ever had. He cultivated a media image that made him synonymous, however incorrectly, with business success. His tireless verbal output, whether through Twitter or at endless rallies, created an alternative reality for his followers. Many saw him as chosen by God.

That kind of charismatic magic will be extremely difficult for any career politician to recapture. Republicans may discover that Trumpism is not a political movement but a business model, a model only ever designed for one benefactor.

Also Check: Republican Vs Democrat Indictments

Trump Sends A Message To Senate Republicans Ahead Of His Trial

The ex-president could seek vengeance on GOP senators if they break with him on impeachment and vote to convict.

01/25/2021 09:14 PM EST

Link Copied

A top political aide to former President Donald Trump spent the weekend quietly reassuring Republican senators that the former president has no plans to start a third party and instead will keep his imprint on the GOP.

The message from Brian Jack, Trumps former political director at the White House, is the latest sign that Republicans considering an impeachment conviction will do so knowing that Trump may come after them in upcoming primaries if they vote to convict him for incitement of insurrection.

Jack did not mention impeachment in his calls. But he wanted the word to get around that Trump is still a Republican and for many, still the leader of his party.

The president wanted me to know, as well as a handful of others, that the president is a Republican, he is not starting a third party and that anything he would do politically in the future would be as a Republican, recounted Sen. Kevin Cramer . The Republican Party is still overwhelmingly supportive of this president.

On Monday evening, Trumps second impeachment trial began unfolding and Republicans started deliberating in earnest over how, or even whether, to defend the president.

By KYLE CHENEY and JOSH GERSTEIN

No, I dont, said Braun.

By BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN

But she added that something more vivid is on many senators minds.

Can Trumpism Become A Winning Strategy Again

For years, but especially since Mr. Bidens victory, the transformation of the Republican Party into what Ms. Cheney called an anti-democratic Trump cult of personality has fueled predictions of its imminentcollapse. But there are more than a few reasons to think Trumpism could once again carry the party to victory and remain in power for a long time.

A realignment in the electorate: Even as the G.O.P.s politics of racial grievance became more overt under Mr. Trump it was birtherism that catapulted his political career, as the Times columnist Jamelle Bouie reminded readers in January the American electorate has become less polarized around racial lines. At the same time, it has become more polarized by educational attainment. According to David Shor, the head of data science at OpenLabs, support for Democrats increased from 2016 by seven percentage points among white college graduates in the 2020 election but fell by one to two points among African-Americans, roughly five points among Asian-Americans and by eight to nine points among Hispanic Americans.

Do you have a point of view we missed? Email us at . Please note your name, age and location in your response, which may be included in the next newsletter.

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Why Did Black Voters Flee The Republican Party In The 1960s

That strategy proved crucial for Nixon. He carried South Carolina , plus Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee and Kentucky. It turned out to be enough, even though five other Southern states’ electoral votes went to George Wallace, the segregationist former governor of Alabama who ran that year as the nominee of the American Independent Party.

Nixon worried about another Wallace bid costing him Southern states again in 1972, and he worked hard to maneuver Wallace in another direction. In the end, Wallace sought the Democratic nomination for president in 1972 . Nixon swept the South that year en route to winning 49 states overall.

The wilderness after Watergate

After such a resounding reelection, it seemed unimaginable that Nixon or his party could be in political trouble so soon after his second inauguration. But a 1972 burglary at the headquarters of the Democratic National Committee , was traced to Nixon’s campaign. His efforts to cover up that connection were then exposed, leading to impeachment proceedings. When audio tapes of his conspiratorial meetings with aides were made public, he resigned and was pardoned by his successor, Gerald Ford.

Republicans once again found themselves in the wilderness. Midterm elections arrived right after the resignation and pardon. Republicans nationwide paid the price, with the party losing seats in Congress it had held for generations.

Another Southern-bred comeback

Why Republicans Stick With Trump

188 Comments By Bobby Jindal

Bobby Jindal The Wall Street Journal

Biography

With each new controversy, Donald Trumps opponents plead with Republicans to denounce him. Hasnt Mr. Trump broken from GOP orthodoxy on free trade, immigration and entitlement reform? Not to mention the personal scandals and the never-ending tweets. Why do Republican leaders hesitate to rebuke him?

A shallow answer is politics: Sens. Jeff Flake and Bob Corker both tangled with Mr. Trump, and it turned out to be political suicide. But to get a deeper answer, its instructive to examine what Mr. Trump hasnt done. Since the campaign, Mr. Trump has abandoned many of his previous positions and embraced traditional conservative views.

Spending and taxes. During the election, Mr. Trump promised a $1 trillion infrastructure plan. Some Republicans feared his first initiative on taking office would be a pork-laden spending package reminiscent of Barack Obamas stimulus bill. They also worried he would cut a deal with Democrats to raise taxes. I am willing to pay more, Mr. Trump said in May 2016. And do you know what? The wealthy are willing to pay more. Instead, the reverse happened: Theres no infrastructure plan in sight, except for the border wall, and Mr. Trump signed a sweeping bill to reduce personal and corporate taxes.

Mr. Jindal served as governor of Louisiana, 2008-16, and was a candidate for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.

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The Deafening Silence Of Republicans

President Donald Trump shakes hands with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Ky., center, before the start of a meeting with House and Senate Leadership in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, Tuesday, June 6, 2017.

This is what GOP lawmakers who think Trump went too far or doesnt deserve to be president are up against. If they grow a spine and rebuke him, they will lose their seats in their districts next election. So far, just distancing themselves or making vague excuses is enough for most. Some even have to voice full-throated support or be primaried by a wide-eyed zealot foaming at the mouth about Antifa super-soldiers building extermination camps for Christians, expending hundreds of thousands of dollars from a campaign chest to repel an attack on their right flank.

Some, of course, are just Trumps who can form a coherent sentence and with six fewer bankruptcies from which their dads had to bail them out while ruthlessly chewing them out in front of other family members and important business partners. Like their voters, they also feel ecstatic that a fellow narcissistic bigot is in charge, and are ready and willing to make things harder on their more moderate and less enthusiastic colleagues.

Why So Many Republicans Cling To Trump

Why Is Donald Trumps Grip So Strong On The GOP? | TODAY

Ben Shapiro got part of it right. A toxic mix of status anxiety, persecution fears, and echoes of the Civil War helps explain why they follow Trump into the abyss.

On September 17, 1862, over 10,000 Confederate soldiers were killed, wounded, or went missing in a single day at the Battle of Antietam. Very few of them came from slave-owning families, so why did they agree to give their lives in defense of human bondage?

I was reminded of this question when I noticed that Politico Playbook had recruited conservative celebrity and author Ben Shapiro;to explain why the vast majority of House Republicans voted not to impeach President Trump on Wednesday for sending a murderous mob after them on January 6. Politico was slammed by liberals for opening its best-known section to a conservative whos been charged with being bigoted and intolerant. But Shapiros explanation of the rallying around Trump during his final days wasnt totally off base. He was on to something about how Republicans see the world.

With Trump leaving office within a week, defending his incitement of an insurrection doesnt seem to be in the long-term self-interest of Republican officeholders.;But the Civil War example helps explain why people sometimes do very self-destructive things out of spite or insecurity.

White supremacy was such a consensus view at the time that Lincoln felt compelled to defend it.

Like the rebels at Antietam, no one wants to die for nothing.

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Recommended Reading: How Many States Are Controlled By Republicans

The Republican Doomsday Cult

Artwork By Rantt Media Production Designer Madison Anderson

With that in mind, we can explore a truly bizarre dynamic thats been unfolding before our eyes. Since the John Birch Society kidnapped the heart of American conservatism, theyve managed to turn it into a doomsday cult which preaches that any deviation from their orthodoxy will be the end of America and therefore the world as we know it. To keep voters in line and tens of millions in cash from the party rank and file, it unleashed what could only be described as a tsunami of conspiracy theories and fake news to support them.

To be a Republican today is to wholeheartedly believe that youve been losing the battle against nefarious forces for the last half-century and if you dont fight back, or should your party not win absolute control at every level of government, the Reptoid Illuminati MS-13 Antifa Sharia Jew World Order will come to your house, rip your face off, and steal your grandchildren to sell as sex slaves in basements of pizzerias. And whereas a charismatic cult leader would know full well that this is a ruse to keep his followers pliant no matter what he does to them, Trump believes the same exact things.

SIGN THIS PETITION TO CALL FOR GUN VIOLENCE TO BE TREATED LIKE AN EPIDEMIC;

‘combative Tribal Angry’: Newt Gingrich Set The Stage For Trump Journalist Says

All these factors combined to produce a windfall for Republicans all over the country in the midterms of 1994, but it was a watershed election in the South. For more than a century after Reconstruction, Democrats had held a majority of the governorships and of the Senate and House seats in the South. Even as the region became accustomed to voting Republican for president, this pattern had held at the statewide and congressional levels.

But in November 1994, in a single day, the majority of Southern governorships, Senate seats and House seats shifted to the Republicans. That majority has held ever since, with more legislative seats and local offices shifting to the GOP as well. The South is now the home base of the Republican Party.

The 2020 aftermath

No wonder that in contesting the results in six swing states he lost, Trump seems to have worked hardest on Georgia. If he had won there, he still would have lost the Electoral College decisively. But as the third most populous Southern state, and the only Southern state to change its choice from 2016, it clearly held special significance.

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As Gop Sticks With Trump Grassroots Energy On The Right Has Gone Missing

WASHINGTON Tax Day 2009 was the start of the Tea Party protests against Barack Obamas agenda.

But as we approach April 15, 2021 even with the tax-filing deadline extended to May 17 its become noticeable just how quiet the conservative grassroots have been during President Bidens first three months in office.

Part of it is due to the fact that Biden has never been the lightning rod for the right that Obama, Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi and even AOC are.

But another part is the 2020 defeated candidate who decided to stick around: Donald Trump.

‘he’s On His Own’: Some Republicans Begin To Flee From Trump

NEW YORK President Donald Trump’s steadfast grip on Republicans in Washington is beginning to crumble, leaving him more politically isolated than at any other point in his turbulent administration.

After riling up a crowd that later staged a violent siege of the U.S. Capitol, Trump appears to have lost some of his strongest allies, including South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham. Two Cabinet members and at least a half dozen aides have resigned. A handful of congressional Republicans are openly considering whether to join a renewed push for impeachment.

One GOP senator who has split with Trump in the past called on him to resign and questioned whether she would stay in the party.

I want him out, Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska told The Anchorage Daily News. “He has caused enough damage.

The insurrection on the heels of a bruising election loss in Georgia accomplished what other low points in Trump’s presidency did not: force Republicans to fundamentally reassess their relationship with a leader who has long abandoned tradition and decorum. The result could reshape the party, threatening the influence that Trump craves while creating a divide between those in Washington and activists in swaths of the country where the president is especially popular.

President-elect Joe Biden isn’t putting his weight behind the effort yet, suggesting there’s not enough time between now and his Jan. 20 inauguration to pursue impeachment or any other constitutional remedy.

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[magnusrosen-blog]

Att Vakna!

Att vakna på morgonen ute i skogen och huvudet fylls av goda tankar är en god morgon!

Att se ljuset och möjligheterna när det omöjliga knackar på dörren är en gåva.

Vägen kommer att fortsätta och livet fylls av erfarenheter och ibland nya perspektiv.

Man utvecklas genom att smidas igenom förfinade vindar av fram och motgångar.

Så länge kärleken finns för livet och dom vi möter kommer vägen alltid att föra oss framåt. ♥️

Det innebär också att man kan reflektera och även ibland lyfta på ögonbrynen när ett helt samhälle stänger ner samtidigt som dödligheten inte verkar vara större än dom andra åren enligt statistiska centralbyrån. Då kommer ju ett frågetecken upp varken man vill eller inte?! 

Fåglarna i skogen har slutat att kvittra och den underbara dagen har börjat med skymning istället för soluppgång. 😞

Vaccinet som dom vill bjuda folket på finns ingen info ang biverkningar enligt  SVD / Svenska Dagbladet.

Ja vi hade ju svininfluensan, hoppas inte samma personer som tillät det vaccinet sitter kvar.

( Känns som dom är väldigt måna om sitt vaccin ) Ja man vill nog veta om biverkningarna, det vill nog alla skulle jag tro. Någon annan agenda kan ju inte finnas med detta vaccinet, då dom styrande alltid vet och vill oss det bästa. Det är ju bara att titta på hur vårt samhället ser ut.

En sannings-kommitté borde kanske stiftas som är politiskt obunden.😀♥️

Annars är det nog lätt att gå vilse i sanningar och förljugenheter. 😞

Den nya censuren på nätet, är den rimlig och vem gagnar den?

Man kan ju fråga sig vems politiska åsikter färgar genom vad som är lämpligt eller inte vid censureringen?

Låt inte hela samhället bara handla om politik: höger eller vänster, styrd massmedia, politiks färgade nyhetsrapporteringar o.s.v

Det finns även andra viktiga värden.♥️

Var är pelarna i vårt samhälle med sanning, moralen, etiken, omtänksamheten, tryggheten och respekten mot varandra, rättvisan och kärleken till våra äldre som byggt upp vårt fina land, dom som konstigt nog blivit dömda till fattigpensionärer.

Vem monterade ner dessa pelare i vårt samhälle? 😥

Är inte detta fina värdegrunder att stå upp för varken du är höger eller vänster? Ser ingen motsats!

Demokratin, ja vilket fönster flög den ut igenom.😞

Är vi inte försiktiga och hinner fånga upp denna utflygande fågel innan den hinner allt för långt bort så har vi förlorat något väldigt fint och vackert.😞

Är du höger eller vänster borde vara upp till dig och samtidigt  visa respekt och omtanke om varandras olika smaker och tycken. 

Framförallt kräva sanningen av dom som styr, då detta gäller oss alla vad vi än befinner oss på den politiska planen. Ett nyhetsklipp från USA Varken man gillar Trump eller Biden så är detta ett hot mot demokratin https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CYuh-yyIXE

Ett förbud mot förljugenhet borde inskaffas när det gäller rikets styrande om vi nu vill ha kvar folkets röst vs i vårt land.♥️

Var är framtidsvisionerna för ett stabilt och trygg land att leva i?

Borde inte detta vara prioritet nr 1 för alla partier?

Något som lyser med sin frånvaro.

Själv trodde jag att en kapten hade till uppgift att styra skeppet i en trygg riktningen till en klar destination, och det vill nog passagerare också. Speciellt då det är passagerarna som givit kaptenen förtroende för färden mot framtiden 🥰

Oj jag såg det inte komma sa Titanic´s kapten om isberget.

Skulle man vilja ha den kaptenen på sin seglats? ( mot framtiden )

Verkligheten är som den är, men den bör absolut inte vara förljugen utan den skall vara klar och tydlig så folket förstår vad som händer och sker utan massa slingrande manövrar, det gör ormen så bra själv. 🐍

Detta är bara en reflektion från skogen sett.

Inget att bry sig om.

Vill bara förstå varför så många av maktens ord ger så många frågetecken???😞

Dax att leta efter smultronställena 👀, men dom dyker väl inte upp fören nästa sommar. ♥️

Men vem vet, det kanske finns ljusglimtar även en mörk höstdag som kan tillfredsställa längtan.👀

Får väl se om Facebook censurerar bort min text då den kanske inte är Politiskt Korrekt eller har rätt värdegrunder som det så fint heter. 😞

Jag är bara orolig och känner mig otrygg i den information som ges från Rikets styrande då jag inte känner igen mig i den verkligheten som predikas. Det är allt. 😞

Bryr mig inte om vem som styr (O:B:S  inom dom mänskliga rättigheterna ) bara det är tryggt, rättvist, sanningsenligt och sunt för tillväxten och människorna i vårt land. Ett parti som styrs med goda visioner och kärlek 😍där alla har möjlighet att få ha en åsikt åt höger eller vänster, det skall vara upp till var och en utan hat stormar.

Och stänger man ner ett helt land eller en hel värld, så borde det finnas klara och tydliga tecken samt exempel på att dödssiffran är mycket mycket högre än andra år. Där har vi statistiken att gå efter.

Så frågan är bara, var är den statistiken med dom skyhöga dödssiffrorna som rättfärdigar att stänga ner ett helt land / värld? Vill inte misstro någon, men detta måste vara tydligt och klart då det skapar trygghet och en möjlighet att förstå. För det kan ju omöjligt finnas andra intressen på den världsliga politiska agendan?

Maktmissbruket i historien har ju aldrig funnits? Eller hur var det nu igen, var ju länge sedan man gick i skolan.. 

Men en sak är säker och det är att Virus har vi varje år med sorgligt nog massa döda 😥 i vårt öppna samhälle. 🙏

Så även död i trafiken, rökning, droger, skjutningar, våld, samt andra sjukdomar med dödlig utgång. Vi har även stadsdelar i Sverige som kallas för No go zoner där rikets lagar inte kan upprätthålla trygghet.

Allt detta plus mer utan att vi stänger ner varken zoner eller samhället.

Så det är inte så konstigt att man kan undra när man inte förstår vilken trygghet man bejakar.

Samtidigt har vi gränserna öppna utan varken krav på Covid-19 tester eller karantän tvång. 

Inte heller tester för dom som åker ur landet.

Var det inte detta politiskt budskap vi mottagit att just inte sprida Corona, för det är väl just därför vi stänger ner samhället?

En kontenta som därmed mycket ledsamt nog medför konkurser, depressioner, självmord, skilsmässor, arbetslöshet samt en äldrevård där man inte försökt med alla medel att hålla dom gamla vid liv.

Hur går detta ihop?

Skall inte fördjupa mig i detta mer, bara en reflektion.

Önskar god hälsa och trygghet till alla.

Magnus.

Foto Bella Stenberg

Magnus Rosén

www.magnusrosen.com

www.magnusrosen.nu

[savetopnow]

2018-04-05 06 APPLE now

APPLE

9 to 5 Mac

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watchOS 5 Wish List: Apple Watch Podcasts, open Siri face, rethought Control Center, more

Amazon adds music automation to Echo products as HomePod lags behind

Verizon Wireless set to offer 50% off iPhone X/8/Plus with trade

Apple’s former retail stores: Where are they now?

Apple Insider

Facebook says Cambridge Analytica may have collected data on up to 87M people

How to use Parental Controls in macOS to limit access to features and apps

Apple Music hits landmark 40 million paid subscribers

MicroLED vs. TFT and OLED: Why Apple is interested in new display tech for future iPhone or Apple Watch

macOS 10.13.4 update breaks Duet Display, Air Display & USB DisplayLink drivers

Cult of Mac

Extra-large Apple Watch bands will fit even the most massive wrists [Watch Store]

Apple Music passes 40 million paid subscribers mark

How to write a killer report with Pages for Mac and iPad

Apple spared from Trump’s trade war with China – for now

Week’s best Apple deals: Save on an unlocked iPhone X

Daring Fireball

Facebook Sharply Increases Estimate of How Many Users’ Information Was Harvested By Cambridge Analytica

AirPods and the Three Stages of Apple Criticism

Four Snappy New iPhone X Apple Pay Ads

Bradley Chambers on Apple’s Education Strategy

‘On Apple, Love Letters, and Educators’

Life in LoFi

iOS 11 Update Day: iOS 11 will break some apps

Scan and straighten photos with Dropbox

Latest Snapseed Update Adds New Curves Tool

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Facebook Details Several Privacy Changes Coming in the Wake of Cambridge Analytica Scandal

iPhone Slowdown Lawsuits Ordered to Be Centralized in Northern California District Court

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[deepfinds-blog]

A presidential test in Montana: Trump vs. Tester President Donald Trump on Saturday will make his fourth trip to Montana since July, which political historians here believe is more than any other US president.

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

A lot of the midterm outlook simply comes down to exposure: which party has more of it, and in which chamber.

In the House, there are 111 (!!) competitive seats, according to the Classic version of our model – races where each party has at least a 5 percent chance of winning. Because the national climate favors Democrats and because Republicans control most of the seats in swing districts as a result of their strong performance in the 2014 and 2016 elections, the overwhelming majority of those are currently held by Republicans. Granted, some seats from among that list of 111 are fringy pickup opportunities for Democrats – but Republicans are playing a lot of defense in a lot of different types of districts.

Just the opposite is true in the Senate, where 26 of the 35 seats up for election this year are currently held by Democrats, including 10 Democratic incumbents running in states won by President Trump. With that kind of map, Democrats would have to catch almost every possible break to win the Senate, and that’s not usually how politics works.

In fact, Democrats’ odds continue to become longer in the Senate, with their chances down to about 1 in 6 in all three version of our forecast. This is despite the fact that their position has become better in some individual races, as you can see in the chart below, which compares our current Senate forecast against the last time we did a version of this exercise two weeks ago.

Where Senate odds have changed

Democratic chances of winning on Oct. 9 vs. Oct. 26 (as of 8 a.m.), according to the FiveThirtyEight 2018 Senate forecast

Lite forecast (polls only) Classic forecast (polls+fundamentals) STATE 9-Oct 26-Oct CHANGE 9-Oct 26-Oct CHANGE Nevada 52% 38% -14 50% 40% -10 Tennessee 41 28 -13 29 24 -5 Mississippi special 23 17 -6 14 12 -2 Texas 23 18 -6 25 21 -4 North Dakota 14 9 -5 31 32 +1 Arizona 68 64 -4 65 62 -3 New Jersey 88 87 -1 92 90 -2 Indiana 68 69 +1 75 71 -4 West Virginia 88 89 +1 88 89 +1 Missouri 51 52 +1 57 58 +1 Minnesota special 85 87 +2 89 90 +1 Montana 79 83 +4 84 86 +2 Florida 57 75 +18 60 74 +14 Overall Senate 21 16 -5 21 17 -3

Races in which Democrats’ chances have consistently been greater than 95 percent or less than 5 percent in the Classic version of the forecast are not listed.

The Democratic outlook has brightened in Florida, for example, where incumbent Bill Nelson now has a lead in most polls and is roughly a 3-1 favorite to defeat Republican Gov. Rick Scott. It’s also gotten better in Montana, where nonpartisan polls have been relatively rare, but have continued to show Jon Tester ahead.

But other races look like bigger challenges for Democrats than before. In Nevada, Republican incumbent Dean Heller – the only GOP senator on the ballot in a state carried by Hillary Clinton — has pulled into a slight lead in the polls against Jacky Rosen. Although the polling has been mixed in Tennessee, most of it has gone against Democrat Phil Bredesen. A pickup in the Mississippi special election, always a bit of a long-shot for Democrats, now looks like more of a pipe-dream after recent polling there.

I realize that “some states are moving in one direction and some in the other direction” isn’t a great headline, but this nicely illustrates Democrats’ Whac-a-Mole problem in the Senate: Whenever they can start to feel a little better about their prospects in one state (Florida), another problem crops up (Nevada).

Nor is it really as though Democrats can curse their luck in the Senate. Sure, they’ve had a few bad breaks:

Scott entered the race and put up a vigorous challenge against Nelson, even if it now looks more likely than not to fall short.

Bob Menendez’s corruption trial has turned New Jersey into a semi-competitive race.

Al Franken’s retirement created an outside (and perhaps slightly overlooked) chance for Republicans to pick up a seat in Minnesota.

In North Dakota, Democratic incumbent Heidi Heitkamp has had a lot of self-inflicted wounds.

John McCain died after the deadline for a special election to be held this year in Arizona, which would have given Democrats a second opportunity to pick up a seat in that state.

But there have been roughly as many favorable or “lucky” developments for Democrats:

Bredesen and Beto O’Rourke have created legitimate opportunities for Democrats in Tennessee and Texas when those races didn’t necessarily look likely to be competitive at all.

Republicans nominated underwhelming candidates in several midwestern states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin.

The only Democratic retire was Franken.

Republican Thad Cochran’s retirement created a special election and an outside pickup opportunity for Democrats in Mississippi.

And let’s not forget: the Democrats somehow won a Senate race in Alabama last year, thanks to a good candidate in Doug Jones and Republicans nominating Roy Moore.

It’s too soon to say the Senate is a lost cause for Democrats. A 1-in-6 chance isn’t good, but it isn’t zero, either. The scenario for a Democratic victory, however, probably involves a systematic polling error in which all of the polls are off in the same direction rather than Democrats clawing their way to victory on a race-by-race basis. The map was tough enough for Democrats that almost everything possible was going to have to go right for them to win the Senate, and it hasn’t.

[canifateeshop]

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[agilewaters-consulting]

What is the difference between Software Teams vs Product Teams in 2020?

In April this year, I gave a talk on the journey of our team at Siemens from being completely new to being a full-fledged product team here. One of the topics that I delved in, and which I believe in, is the difference between Software Teams vs Product Teams. I’m going deeper into the differences in the following article of Software Teams Vs Product Teams.

India has excelled phenomenally in the field of Information Technology. But generally, our role has been limited to being a software team where we work on the given requirements and deliver the code. But we don’t get credit in the market for the product. We don’t own the success or failure of the product.

I feel that to move to the next level in ownership, we need to start working as Product teams. The below points can also act as a road map for the shift.

I’m presenting some caveats so that the context of the articles and the limitations are set.

Caveat #1: In the articles, I’m going to present the advantages of a Product team. But I do not want to disparage the Software teams. It has its own set of strengths and weaknesses.

Caveat #2: A lot of the points presented are contextual to what I’ve observed in my career in India and may not be relevant across the globe.

Caveat #3: When I say a software team, I don’t mean teams in software or services companies. The differences between these teams stems from what drives them, and their core principles. There can be a product team in a services company, and a software team in a product company.

1. “Why should this product exist?”

As developers, testers or project managers, we tend to focus on the final deliverable, which is usually the next release, or delivery, or milestone. The team has to deliver the code, binaries, documentation, and other artifacts needed as part of the release. The team works hard to ensure that all the metrics and KPIs are achieved. The developers receive the requirements and they ensure that all the requirements are met.

The testers also ensure that they have found as many bugs as possible and got them rectified before the final release. The project manager monitors and tracks the process and documents every step.

At the end, the team does an extraordinary job, sometimes under pressure of delivery or management. They work as a team and achieve a milestone that some thought impossible.

But … the product didn’t make it to the market!

How many times have we been in such situations? We ask ourselves (or at least should ask) what went wrong. Whose fault was it? Was it the project manager’s fault? Or developers’ fault? Or testers’ fault? Or was it the Product Manager who should’ve come up with better requirements or done a better research?

Instead of assigning blame, we need to ask, “How we could’ve prevented this?” I know that the team alone could not have prevented the failure. There are other factors at play here, but I’m going to focus on the role of the team.

As a software team, our job is to finish the deliveries. When a contract is signed between the company asking for the product and the company developing it, both parties agree upon a set of deliverables, quality and budget. (You could substitute ‘company’ with ‘divisions’, ‘business units’ and still have the same situation.) The development team focus remains the deliverables. The project manager, once having taken on the project, has to ensure that the costs remains within the budget, deliveries are on time and with the agreed-upon quality.

But the team doesn’t ask the rationale of the product. No one asks the questions: “Is this product needed?”. If yes, then are we even building for the right people?

These questions are critical for a product to be successful. The product manager, the higher management need to provide the raison d’être for the product. A product team asks these questions and ensures that they are answered to their satisfaction. Many times, they also provide the answers themselves. Once it has the answer, then it believes in the product and is driven by the passion for the product.

But if the team isn’t satisfied by what they hear from the management, then they must be empowered to call a stop to the product.

2. What is your Passion?

About 10 or 12 years ago, I wrote a function for my project, that contained nearly hundred string compares (and this was a C code), to determine the exact property of the input. The function behaved like switch-case for strings. I wanted to optimize it, so I came up with an algorithm that would, at least theoretically, do the same operation in much lesser time. I was very proud of the algorithm and its implementation. The function was efficient when executed.

But the overall impact was much less as it wasn’t executed that often. I was too focused on the code and missed the fact that it didn’t deliver much value.

I’ve seen the above scenario lot of times. The developers are proud of the code that they have written, the various optimizations and algorithms that they have used. Their code is beautiful and follows all the coding guidelines. The testers are proud of the automation tests, the complex scenarios they have tested, the reports showing how many bugs they discovered.

The project manager is proud that the project achieved the scope, was within budget and was able to deliver on time. He or she created complex Excel reports, beautiful Powerpoint presentations to showcase their achievements, and diligently documented every step of the project.

Members of software team are too focused on their area of expertise. Their pride stems from their brilliance on the code, testing, sometimes even just the beautiful drawings that they have created for the project. They look for brilliant solutions, not necessarily the simplest ones.

A product team, on the other hand, is not driven by code or test cases or algorithms. It is driven by the product – the problems it solves, the value that it provides to clients or end users. A complex code, if it doesn’t add any value, is not exciting enough. On the other hand, a simple function that solves a bigger problem generates more enthusiasm in the team.

Another passion of a software team is Design. I’ve heard many developers, architects, testers defend design and say that a feature cannot be implemented because it does not fit in the design. They are in love with the design, which was created after a significant effort in the early phases of the product.

However, for a product team, the feature takes precedence. There are some practical limitations for feature implementation, such as efforts needed and if they fit in the roadmap. But the feature trumps design considerations. Once the team agrees that the feature is needed for the customers and understands the rationale, they go ahead and develop it.

“I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend,” said Captain Faramir!

The above quote is taken from the book ‘The Two Towers’, of the Lord of the Rings trilogy, by J.R.R. Tolkien. It can be modified for software context as “I do not love C for its effectiveness, nor Java for the object-oriented methodology, nor python for its ease of coding. I love only that which they deliver.”

Developers and testers are focused on the technology, or the language or the tools that we use. I understand that in the beginning of the career of any software engineer, she or he wants to work on languages or technology that has the highest salary potential. However, such people also want to move to the latest language because it is in vogue. I’ve heard many people in the Indian IT industry that they want to work on the latest technology.

Developers want to work on the latest version of Java, or take up languages or frameworks like Golang, Angular JS, Django, Flask, etc. or take up new technologies such as Machine Learning, Artificial intelligence. A few months back an engineer rejected our interview call because we aren’t working on the latest version of Java; he wasn’t even interested to know about the product or the domain. I heard of another interview, where the candidate actually tried to convince the interviewer to change the current bug tracking tool to one that the candidate is more comfortable with.

Our interview processes too are language or tech oriented. Interviewers ask about what she has worked on, or the intricacies of a chosen language. They judge the candidates on how much the person knows about the language. This is a legitimate method to determine if the candidate has good hands-on experience, but that is also a limited view of the candidate.

This process doesn’t tell us whether she can deliver in our projects or how she can handle unknown scenarios. We should, instead, look for people who can learn quickly and adapt, and are able to solve problems. We hardly ever try to judge people on such skills.

A Product team, on the other hand, learns and adapts to whatever tools/technology/language solves their problem. I’ll explain with an example. We have a spreadsheet/table implementation in my current product. However, it has its limitations, and we are trying to solve the issues that arise due to the limitations. My team quickly moved to SQLite as the backend for the table to try and solve the problem.

Instead of trying to solve the problem using the current language (C++/QT) only, they quickly moved to integrate SQLite. A Product team has high adaptability and learning skills. Their aim is to deliver the product using any tools available.

[monstersofsilence]

Video games the cause of real life violence?! More likely than you think [big rant. I’m sorry]

I need to get this out of my chest because I have been seeing this and with the recent shootings, I’m just gonna say this

VIDEO GAMES DON’T CAUSE REAL LIFE VIOLENCE

if anyone, ANYONE BELIEVES THAT, I’m sorry, but you’re just an idiot. I don’t try to get mad for certain things but this topic just pisses me off to no end. video games have never, EVER been the root cause for the violence going on in the world and it never will because it’s been proven TIME AND TIME AGAIN

I know that this isn’t new news but NOT EVEN AFTER A COUPLE WEEKS OR MONTHS!

A DAY FUCKING LATER AFTER THE TWO MASS SHOOTINGS TRUMP PUTS THE BLAME ON VIDEO GAMES

and you know why? they’re diverging. they’re trying to make people believe that THIS CERTAIN THING is the cause for what happened. and it wasn’t the first time but not this quickly which is shocking and infuriating. and the shameful thing is is that they will spout random bullshit saying “oh! and it’s been proven by so and so that video games influences violence among the youth and yadda yadda yadda, bullshit bullshit bullshit! AH DERR”

no. shut the fuck up. if you are saying shit like that: BACK IT UP instead of just saying the proven test results that is inside your little head

though! one thing I have heard they tested this on: kids with minecraft. I’m not joking. let me explain and if you can find that, please do. so what I heard is that the testers let a few kids play minecraft but they did a few tests. they let a kid play with a gun [I don’t know how. I guess a mod? or the bow? IDK], a sword, and with nothing. then, they bring the kids into another room and gave them toy guns and foam swords to play with. the kids chose the toy guns and the testers LITERALLY SAID that the kids were playing the typical kid game: cops and robbers and cowboys vs indians. but what they said next still baffles me. they said the kids were SIMULATING TRIGGER PULL

I SHIT YOU NOT. SIMULATING. TRIGGER PULL.

THEY’RE FUCKING KIDS. JUST. KIDS. THEY’LL TOUCH, PULL, PUSH ANYTHING THAT THEY’LL BE ABLE TO INTERACT WITH! KIDS ARE FUCKING KIDS!

so what? if a kid plays Fifa and later goes outside to play soccer, all of sudden he’s part of a well renowned soccer team and is instantly better than every soccer player? if a kid plays a fighting they’re suddenly able to do karate, jo jitsu, tai quan doe [I probably spelled that wrong. I’m sorry], or some shit? go fuck yourself with that stupid shit. it doesn’t prove crap. you there’s a whole lot to know how to wield a weapon. yes, it’s easy to know that pulling the trigger fires it but do you know how to maintain it? how to strip it down? how to handle it? do I know all that? HELL FUCKING NO! and I have been playing FPS games since Halo 1 and do you see me on the news? fuck no

and I love that they keep saying that kids are dysensitized from violence. well, here’s a thing: people that plays video games know that it’s not fucking real. it’s fiction. even if games based on real life, it’s all virtual. this is similar to the controversy with Modern Warfare 2 in the No Russian level [a level in Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2 where you play as an undercover operative with the enemy and you literally shoot up a whole airport though at the end of the level the enemy you are with found out you were an undercover soldier and kills you. FUN FACT: you can choose NOT TO SHOOT ANY CIVILIANS IN THAT LEVEL. NOT FIRE A SINGLE BULLET AT CIVIS. and the other option, which was implimented after that whole thing blew up after the release of the game where they give you a prompt where you can skip the level entirely. optional, obviously]

we know what’s real and what’s fake. when we shoot people in games, they’re not real people! they’re just a bunch of codes and numbers. REAL PEOPLE, that’s entirely different. if you punch someone, you will feel the impact of you knuckles meeting flesh, you will see them in pain, and you will react emotionally as well in that moment. video games is different. ENTIRELY DIFFERENT. we don’t care about the violence in games because IT’S NOT FUCKING REAL. IT’S FUCKING FAKE

and not only that, violent video games is actually good for some people that maybe had the worse day of their life and have a lot of built up anger. violent video games helps with that where they can just play the game and get lost in it and their aggression they were feeling will just go away! FUCKING SHOCKING RIGHT?!

AND ANOTHER THING: a good amount of these shooters DON’T FUCKING PLAY VIOLENT VIDEO GAMES. it’s literally mental health. it’s always been that problem and it’s worse from someone that’s probably not right in the head and gets influenced from a CERTAIN NACHO FACED RACIST and start developing this ideology and motive for why they will commit this tragedy

remember that shooter that shot up that one school? it was said that he wasn’t right mentally because his neighbors complained about him, always hearing him shooting things. SO EVEN BEFORE, THERE WAS RED FLAGS THAT THE TEEN WASN’T MENTALLY STABLE aND POLICE WERE CALLED ON THIS ISSUE BEFORE BUT DID NOTHING THINKING THERE WAS NOTHING THEY CAN DO. and guess what? he shot up the school. and the shooter at LA where he shot at a crowd at a country concert, nobody fucking knows why he did it. nothing on him. NOT A SINGLE FUCKING THING. especially from his ex-wife but I call bullshit on that

moral of the fucking story: video games aren’t the problem. MENTAL FUCKING HEALTH IS. I have seen an image that shows a graph of certain places in the world that plays video games, and SHOCKINGLY [sarcasm], a large amount of people ranging from UK, China, Japan, etc. plays video games! INCLUDING THE U.S.!

and then they showed another graph of gun shootings

every other place is lower but GUESS WHICH ONE IS THE FUCKING HIGHEST?! THE U FUCKING S

and another fun fact that I learned: in China you can own a gun! but there’s some things that you have to do. you have to take a survey to be sure that you MENTALLY CAPABLE AND RESPONSIBLE TO WIELD A WEAPON and do this every now and then similar to like taking classes to learning how to drive

to end this, video games aren’t the problem and never will be and if they do influence people, then it’s always a very, VERY small percentage and most of the time it’s never guns. I remember hearing about a guy stealing a car and the thief said they learned it from GTA. I think. I can’t remember but I remember hearing about that

I’m done. rant over. I just NEEDED to let this all out because this whole thing is just fucking ridiculous