#Parliamentary elections

[alwaysbewoke]

[thesarkycoder]

Remember UK folks, there's no such thing as Tory overkill, Reform needs to be driven into last place, and anyone who says you shouldn't vote is trying to help their party reduce their losses.

Vote.

[marythegizka]

Jesus f*cking christ

[myntti]

Fucking fucking fuck. The next four years are going to be sooooo fun. Fuck.

[head-post]

Sri Lanka votes in parliamentary elections

Sri Lankans are voting in parliamentary elections key to the country’s new president Anura Kumara Dissanayake, according to AP News.

President Dissanayake won the presidential election on 21 September, marking a rejection of traditional political parties. They have governed Sri Lanka since its independence from Britain in 1948.

However, his failure to win more than 50 per cent of the vote heightened concerns about his party’s prospects in Thursday’s election. His party, National People’s Power (NPP), needs a minimum of 113 to control the 225-member parliament.

The biggest challenge for the NPP, founded in 2019, is that many of its candidates are emerging political figures. Of the 225 parliamentary seats, 196 are drawn under Sri Lanka’s proportional-representative electoral system. There are 8,821 candidates contesting for the 196 elected parliamentary seats.

The system allocates the seats in each district to parties according to the share of votes they receive. The remaining 29 seats are allocated to parties and independent groups according to the proportion of votes they receive nationwide.

While campaigning, Dissanayake urged voters to help elect them to parliament so that he would not have to rely on a coalition to implement his promised reforms.

The election comes at a crucial time for the people of Sri Lanka, which is trying to emerge from its worst economic crisis by declaring bankruptcy after defaulting on its foreign debt in 2022. The country is currently in the process of a salvation programme from the International Monetary Fund and debt restructuring to international creditors.

Economic and political crisis

Sri Lanka’s crisis was largely the result of poor economic management combined with the effects of COVID-19. Along with the 2019 terrorist attacks, the pandemic devastated the country’s important tourism industry, also disrupting the flow of remittances from Sri Lankans working abroad.

The economic turmoil led to a political crisis that forced then president Gotabaya Rajapaksa to step down in 2022. Parliament then elected Ranil Wickremesinghe to replace him. However, he lost the election as public discontent grew due to the government’s attempts to increase revenue by raising bills and taxes.

Dissanayake’s promise to punish members of previous governments accused of corruption and return allegedly stolen assets also raised great hopes among the public. Election results are expected on Friday.

Read more HERE

[rightnewshindi]

श्रीलंका में 14 नवंबर को होंगे संसदीय चुनाव, भारत के दौरे पर रवाना हुए राष्ट्रपति मुइज्जू; मस्कट पहुंचे भारतीय नौसेना के जहाज

Big Stories: श्रीलंका में सभी प्रमुख राजनीतिक दल नवंबर में होने वाले संसदीय चुनाव की तैयारियों में जुट गए हैं। राजनीतिक पार्टियां उम्मीदवारों की सूची बनाने में जुटी हैं और नए गठबंधन बनाने का प्रयास कर रही हैं। श्रीलंका में 14 नवंबर को संसदीय चुनाव होने हैं। पिछले शुक्रवार को नामांकन शुरू होने के बावजूद किसी भी प्रमुख पार्टी ने अभी तक चुनाव लड़ने के लिए अपना नामांकन दाखिल नहीं किया है। चुनाव के…

[cryptolioneirs]

Dapatkah pergerakan pasar pasca pemilu Inggris menyerupai tahun 1997 dan 2010?

Pemilu umum sudah di depan mata

Pemilihan umum Inggris akan diselenggarakan pada hari Kamis ini, 4 Juli, hari di mana AS akan merayakan ulang tahunnya yang ke-248 sejak  diadopsinya Deklarasi Kemerdekaan. Partai Buruh diperkirakan akan menang dengan nyaman dalam pemilihan tersebut dengan pertanyaan terakhir yang belum terjawab adalah besarnya mayoritas parlementernya. Partai ini dapat memenangkan lebih dari 400 kursi di parlemen berikutnya, mayoritas Partai Buruh terbesar sejak 2001, yang memberikan pemimpinnya kemampuan untuk memerintah tanpa gangguan selama 5 tahun ke depan.

Pasar telah menganalisis dan membedah rencana ekonomi pemerintah baru, tetapi tampaknya masih dalam mode menunggu menjelang peristiwa penting tersebut. Indeks FTSE 100 turun sekitar 3% sejak hari pengumuman pada 22 Mei sementara pound sterling menunjukkan kinerja yang beragam terhadap dolar dan euro, meskipun volatilitas pasar meningkat.

Apa yang selanjutnya untuk aset utama Inggris?

Analisis historis merupakan cara yang berguna untuk memetakan kemungkinan reaksi pasar setelah peristiwa berisiko. Oleh karena itu, tinjauan terperinci terhadap kinerja pascapemilu sejak 1997 bisa jadi menarik. Namun, kita harus mempertimbangkan bahwa perkembangan eksternal, seperti krisis utang zona euro, atau peristiwa yang terjadi sekali saja, seperti Brexit, dapat sangat memengaruhi hasil pemilu dan reaksi pasar.

1997 dan 2010 – terulangnya sejarah?

Meski demikian, ada dua pemilihan umum yang menonjol dan sesuai dengan situasi saat ini. Pada tahun 1997, Partai Buruh di bawah Tony Blair berhasil merebut kembali pemerintahan setelah 18 tahun didominasi Partai Konservatif. Demikian pula, pada tahun 2010, Partai Konservatif kembali berkuasa, memenangkan empat pemilihan umum berturut-turut dan tetap berkuasa hingga 4 Juli 2024. Jadi, apa yang terjadi dengan aset pasar utama sebelum dan sesudah pemilihan umum ini?

Analisis kinerja pasar pada hari pemilihan, satu hari, dan satu minggu setelah tanggal-tanggal penting mengungkapkan beberapa temuan menarik. Misalnya, harga minyak Brent cenderung turun baik pada hari pemilihan maupun hari berikutnya karena pasar masih mencerna hasilnya.

Yang lebih penting, perubahan pasar seminggu setelah pemilihan umum memberikan sinyal terkuat. Seperti yang terlihat pada grafik 1 di bawah ini, pada tahun 1997 dan 2010, pound berkinerja buruk terhadap dolar AS dan euro, sementara indeks FTSE 100 melonjak sekitar 3%. Selain itu, harga emas dan minyak Brent menunjukkan kecenderungan naik, dengan yang terakhir sangat dipengaruhi oleh inisiatif energi baru yang diharapkan akan dilaksanakan oleh pemerintah baru.

Volatilitas dalam empat pemilu terakhir

Cara populer lainnya untuk memperdagangkan peristiwa pasar yang signifikan adalah melalui volatilitas. Analisis volatilitas tersirat selama satu bulan untuk pasangan euro/pound dan pound/dolar dalam empat pemilihan terakhir, sejak 2010, menunjukkan beberapa hasil yang menjanjikan.

Volatilitas pada kedua pasangan cenderung turun satu hari setelah pemilihan umum diadakan, dengan satu-satunya pengecualian pada tahun 2010 ketika krisis utang zona euro yang sedang berlangsung menyebabkan sedikit peningkatan volatilitas satu bulan. Menariknya, koreksi volatilitas mata uang ini berlanjut satu minggu setelah tanggal pemilihan dengan penurunan sekitar 10-35% yang tercatat dalam empat pemilihan terakhir, karena pasar bereaksi terhadap risiko politik yang lebih rendah. Penurunan volatilitas ini juga dipertahankan ketika memeriksa periode waktu yang lebih lama, hingga enam bulan setelah tanggal pemilihan umum.

Bisakah kinerja terkini memberi kita petunjuk tentang prospek jangka pendek?

Terakhir, cara alternatif untuk menganalisis tren historis adalah dengan mencoba dan mencocokkan kinerja aset-aset utama sebelum peristiwa selama pemilihan sebelumnya dengan yang sekarang. Logika di balik proses ini adalah bahwa kinerja yang serupa menunjukkan risiko yang serupa yang dihargakan pada kedua periode dan dengan demikian dapat mengungkapkan prospek jangka pendek untuk aset yang dianalisis.

Tabel 1 di bawah ini menunjukkan periode pemilihan yang sesuai untuk berbagai aset. Misalnya, pergerakan harga indeks FTSE 100 tahun ini sesuai dengan kinerja indeks sebelum pemilihan umum 2015, ketika Partai Konservatif memenangkan masa jabatan berikutnya dalam pemerintahan. Pada tahun 2015, FTSE 100 turun 1,5% satu bulan setelah tanggal pemilihan umum dengan kerugiannya meningkat menjadi 2,4% dalam periode tiga bulan.

[hussyknee]

Trying to explain what the fuck just happened in Lankan politics today.

The leftist party has won 159 seats out of 218 in the Parliamentary elections. The single biggest landslide win since we broke from the British and achieved universal franchise in 1948.

Any party achieving a super majority in the executive and legislative is, objectively speaking, bad. It disables checks and balances, which is a catastrophic thing for any democracy, and the only two other times it's happened for us has irrevocably eroded the fabric of civic rights and democratic freedom. Also, the reason the NPP won the North and East is that the colonized, genocided and subjugated people there have no faith in electoralism anymore. The way this government has engaged minority issues has been utterly abysmal and now they've been rewarded for it.

On the other hand:

The winners. Are all. Grassroots. Candidates.¹

We have voted out every single career criminal that's been barnacled into the Lankan political arena since before I've been alive. The fascist party has only three seats.² The other fascists didn't win a single seat. The neoliberal legacy party won none. There are only forty people in Parliament that represent any sort of dynastic political legacy. After 76 solid years of nothing but political dynasties.

This is barely five years after the Rajapaksas swept in and absolutely glutted the Parliament with their family members and cronies end to end.

This is the illegitimate interim government we had for most of the last 18 months. We literally, physically, chased the Rajapaksas out of the country and this fucking demon set up a puppet government just so he could finally sit in that goddamn chair and be the despot he'd always dreamed of in exchange for letting them all come back. He's now gone. His entire circle is gone.

THEY ARE ALL FUCKING GONE.

In US terms, just imagine that, five years from now, when Trump's GOP has control of everything, the entire GOP and the worst of the Dems are all purged from Congress and Senate, the Green Party in control of all three branches of government under a pro-union left-wing President and an unmarried female LGBT rights activist Vice President, and the Dems reduced to barely 20% of the House.

This is my anthropology professor. She joined politics from the small nascent leftist coalition to help keep the government accountable. She's now the Prime Minister and the most popular Parliamentary candidate in the nation's history. (Edit: She was knocked off first place by a dude in the final result. Boo.)

(On the other hand— the woman who helped make me a radical anarchist and literally helped write a book on political dissent and resistance...now is the state. Uh.)

But there are so many women in Parliament! We had the lowest female representation in a South Asian Parliament and some of them were from the list of seats reserved for parties rather than elected ones. Most were either anti-feminist conservative embarrassments, widows and daughters of elite politicians and neoliberal shills. It's still only an increase of a few percentage points (Edit: from the previous 5% to 10% in the final result!) but now we have elected academics, feminist advocates, activists! There Is a representative for Malaiyaha Tamils in the Central Province for the first time in history and it's a young woman! (Edit: now it's two female Malaiyaha MPS!!) This is the plantation community that still live in conditions closest to the slavery the British forced upon them two hundred years ago!

I'm like. Completely mindfucked. To be very very clear, the NPP coalition formed around the nucleus of the JVP that used to be communist but haven't been in 30 years, they're now just social democrats who are left of places like the US and UK, whose "left" is now center-right. They're only threatening to the Western mainstream media for some reason who can't stop bleating about how we have a "Marxist" government now. In reality, the actual chances for radical reform are still quite low, and the opportunity for further erosion is quite high with a super majority government regardless of affiliation.

On the other hand:

What the fuck.

Sometimes living through historical events is really damn amazing.

---

¹ Well, nearly. There are a few career politicians and a nepo baby but they aren't so bad either.

² Goddamn it, Baby Rajapaksa and Sri Lanka's answer to JD Vance have wormed their way in using the list of Constitutionally reserved party seats for non-elected members. FUCK the National List.

[hidden-hearth]

[athenaefilia]

for everyone who followed the US elections, things in Romania aren't faring any better

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romanian-election-could-be-rerun-official-says-2024-11-29/

it is soul crushing for me to see all this unfolding - a delusional extremist overseeing our foreign policies is the last thing we need

[iamacolor]

on here blogging about spotify wrapped while the national assembly just voted to censor/fire the current government (which was very much still a new government lol) and we have no idea what could happen next because last time a new pm had to be named macron refused to pick someone from the main parliamentary group by arguing that without a clear majority they would be censored/fired by the national assembly too quickly so instead he went for the most right wing people he could find despite the fact that their party came 4th and they just got fired 🙃

[akatiuspielinki]

Next 4 years in Finland be like after the elections

(Kokoomus - Orpo: "Cries will be heard from many households" in English)

[inkbotkowalski]

fucking fascist fucks. fucking Nazi continent

[head-post]

Ruling conservatives won Croatian elections

The Croatian Democratic Union won Wednesday’s parliamentary elections, according to Euronews.

Croatia’s ruling conservatives triumphed in Wednesday’s fiercely contested election, according to the official vote count. The ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) defeated a centrist alliance informally led by President Zoran Milanović and his Social Democratic Party (SDP).

The State Election Commission reported that the HDZ won 60 seats in the 151-seat parliament after counting over 90% of the ballots. The SDP received 42 seats. Third place went to the Statehood Movement with 14 seats.

The turnout totalled over 50% a few hours before the polls closed. In his victory speech, the HDZ leader Prime Minister Andrej Plenković stated:

Starting tomorrow morning, we will start forming a new parliamentary majority in order to form our third government. I want to congratulate the other parties that were defeated by the HDZ.

Read more HERE

[gretagator]

Feeling a lot of hate for right-wing people this morning because I've been spending too much time on that hellhole site called Twitter again (genuinely starting to think we should just k!ll them)

Here's a picture of when I brought my Chuck McGill plushie with me to vote for the first time (for the LEFT) during the French parliamentary elections earlier this year btw 👍 Because screw the right and Chuck said so too. No kidding