#Lowy Institute

[indizombie]

Over the past 20 years, China has become the largest lender in the Pacific. Now Tonga, Vanuatu and Samoa are spending some of the biggest sums in the world to repay debts to China, as a proportion of their GDP, according to Lowy Institute analysis. Tonga's annual debt repayments to China are nearly 4 per cent of its GDP — the third-highest level in the world. It's a rate that Lowy research associate Riley Duke calls "astronomically high". "On a global scale, it's really significant," he said. In Samoa, debt repayments to China are 2.6 per cent of GDP — the fourth-highest rate in the world — while Vanuatu's debt repayments (nearly 2 per cent) also put it in the top 10.

‘Pacific Island nations owe 'astronomical' debts to China. Can they repay?’, ABC

[xtruss]

[somerabbitholes]

Hey, Do you have any foreign policy reading recommendations?

Here are a few. Since I don't know what exactly you're looking for and foreign policy is huge, I've tried to go with a diverse bunch

The Revenge of Geography by Robert D. Kaplan: about what geography can tell us about conflicts and possible directions that international politics would take; really good analysis, really good starting point to learn how to think about geopolitics. You can check out his other books too, he's quite good

Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marshall: more on what the map and geography tells us about global diplomacy and international politics

Belt and Road by Bruno Macaes: about the Belt and Road project and the kind of international order it and China through the project envisions; the politics of the project

The Chip War by Chris Miller: it's a history of semiconductors and through them, about global supply chains and industrial manufacturing circuits and how geopolitics and foreign policy impacts industry/business

The Blood Telegram by Gary J Bass: about US involvement in South Asia during the Cold War and particularly how it shaped politics between India, Pakistan and China

War by Margaret MacMillan: not strictly foreign policy, but it is about the place of war in history and politics

I'd also just recommend reading magazines and news and reporting about international politics; it's always more timely and easier to get the hang of. You can check out Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Politico, Carnegie Endowment, Lowy Institute to start with; most of them also have podcasts

[southeastasianists]

In the days since Hamas launched a deadly attack on southern Israel on 7 October, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has not made a formal statement about the crisis. This is not surprising, given that each ASEAN member sees the conflict differently. The language adopted and positions taken by individual ASEAN members reflect the interplay of historical or domestic dynamics in their foreign policy. ASEAN is a grouping – but on this issue, not a bloc.

Let’s look at the diverse response from the ASEAN members – where at one end of the spectrum, Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia have expressed unity with the Palestinians. None of them has diplomatic relations with Israel and all have remained steadfast in their criticism of Israel despite Western pressure. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim spoke to Ismail Haniyeh, the political bureau chief of Hamas, and expressed support for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

In each of Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia, religion is significant in domestic politics. With Muslim majority populations, there is widespread public solidarity with the Palestinian struggles.

The significance of religion in Indonesian domestic politics was compelling enough for Ganjar Pranowo, one of the candidates for next year’s presidential election, to appear during an Islamic prayer call on a private TV station as part of his campaign. Furthermore, recent public demonstrations in Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur against Israel and the United States reflect sentiment on the street about the latest fighting, which governments cannot ignore.

Conversely, Singapore took a firm position against Hamas and strongly condemned the “terror attacks”. The small island-state has close defence relations with Israel, with Israeli military advisers assisting the Singapore Armed Forces since Singapore’s independence in 1965. Defence relations remain strong, as reflected in the joint development and production of surface-to-surface Blue Spear missiles.

Singapore’s strong stance against Hamas leaves it out of step with its larger Muslim-majority neighbours. Bilahari Kausikan, an influential former Singaporean diplomat, made clear the difference by frankly labelling as “bullshit” a view he attributed to a Malaysian ex-diplomat for the “root cause of the current violence” to be addressed, instead supporting a robust Israeli military response against Hamas.

Nevertheless, Singapore is concerned the crisis could lead to domestic division along religious lines as there is a sizable Muslim minority in the island-state. The government has banned events and public assemblies concerning the current Israel-Hamas conflict, citing rising tension as a reason. And to avoid a view that the Singapore position was one-sided, a government minister later said it was possible to be concerned regarding the Palestinian plights while condemning Hamas’ action. The Singaporean President and Prime Minister sent letters to Palestinian leaders, expressing condolences for the mounting casualties in the Gaza Strip, and pledging a $300,000 donation in humanitarian aid.  

Two other ASEAN members, the Philippines and Thailand, have large numbers of nationals working in Israel and have suffered casualties in the current crisis. Yet each responded differently. The Philippines condemned Hamas’ actions, while Thailand initially expressed neutrality, stating that “we do not know the truth about the political climate between the two nations [Palestine and Israel].” Manila’s response could be attributed to its experience battling militant groups in the southern Philippines over decades. As recently as 2017, militant groups professing alignment with the Islamic State seized control of Marawi, a city in the south of the Philippines, which led to a months-long campaign by the Philippines military with regional support to drive the militants out.

Across mainland Southeast Asia, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam issued softer statements, expressing concern about the crisis without assigning blame to any party. The military junta in Myanmar is more focused on regime survival, launching an air strike against domestic insurgents, killing 29 people a few days after the Hamas attack on Israel.

These historical and domestic dynamics inform the policy of individual ASEAN states and provide some perspective in their reading of and response to the current crisis in the Middle East. It demonstrates a lack of unity among the Southeast Asian grouping that some observers argue dilutes its relevance. Yet despite the diverse responses by individual ASEAN members, there has been no official criticism by one member against another. This is consistent with ASEAN’s norms of non-interference in each other’s affairs, which aims to ensure the stability of Southeast Asia, a region that is still experiencing the threat of terrorism, internal rebellions, and inter-state territorial disputes.

Perhaps the silent acceptance of diverse positions is a strategy for ASEAN to cope in the more volatile world that we live in today.

[nawapon17]

The live-fire loophole in the law of the sea | Lowy Institute

[pob393]

Peru’s new megaport reveals a refined Belt and Road | Lowy Institute

[simonh]

Papillomavirus Virus-Like Particles: for Vaccines Against HPV and Other Diseases by National Library of Medicine Via Flickr: Alternate Title(s): For vaccines against HPV and other diseases Series Title(s): G. Burroughs Mider lecture Contributor(s): Lowy, Doug., National Institutes of Health (U.S.)., Medical Arts and Photography Branch., Foundation for Advanced Education in the Sciences (Bethesda, Md.) Publication: [Bethesda, Md. : Medical Arts and Photography Branch, National Institutes of Health, 2002] Language(s): English Format: Still image Subject(s): Papillomavirus Infections -- prevention & control, Alphapapillomavirus, Viral Vaccines Genre(s): Posters Abstract: Poster in a yellowish green and royal blue with blue print on the yellow/green section and white print on the blue section. The visual is a reperesentation of a papillomavirus particle in gray and brown and has a three-dimensional effect. Extent: 1 photomechanical print (poster) : 82 x 46 cm. Technique: color NLM Unique ID: 101456152 NLM Image ID: C02917 Permanent Link: resource.nlm.nih.gov/101456152

[indizombie]

"Mathematically, yes, China accounts for around 40% of global growth," says George Magnus, an economist at the University of Oxford's China Centre. "But who is that growth benefitting? China runs a huge trade surplus. It exports so much more than it imports, so how much China grows or doesn't grow is really more about China than it is about the rest of the world." Nevertheless, China spending less on goods and services - or on housebuilding - means less demand for raw materials and commodities. In August, the country imported nearly 9% less compared to the same time last year - when it was still under zero-Covid restrictions. "Big exporters such as Australia, Brazil and several countries in Africa will be hit hardest by this," says Roland Rajah, director of the Indo-Pacific Development Centre at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.

Nick Marsh, ‘What China's economic problems mean for the world’, BBC

[xtruss]

Global Times: When The West Talks About China's Change, What Do They Fear?

— August 24, 2023

Out of touch with reality. Illustration: Liu Rui/Global Times

The world we live today is the world in which the West has been expanding for 500 years, but the Global South, represented by China, is on the rise.

However, the West's expansion and Global South's emergence are not going to integrate in a silky-smooth transition, especially for the West - it is entering this change with a deep affection and attachment to its 500 years of expansion.

On Tuesday, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock expressed her feelings in a virtual speech to the Lowy Institute, an Australia think tank: "Increasingly, China is a rival - when it comes to the very fundamentals of how we live together in this world.

"China has changed, and that's why our policy toward China also needs to change," she added.

If we look at the changes in US and Western policy toward China based on the so-called change of China, described by Baerbock, what we see is a China that is seemingly like the West of 500 years ago - full of drive for global exploration, expansion, and colonization, and unafraid to use military power as a precursor to unifying the wealth and faith of the world under the banner of Western civilization

However, China's "change" in Baerbock's description is filled with the Western imagination.

Over the past four decades of its reform and opening-up, China has followed a path of peaceful development. At the core of China's change is the modernization of a home to one-fifth of the world's population, fundamentally altering global development and our way of living together.

China's change is not a result of failing to respond to the abrupt changes in the tide of globalization. On the contrary, Chinese enterprises that have been or are on the verge of leading the world are all advancing in the market economy.

The West looks at China's change with fear, because they are not willing to fully give China the world status it deserves, including China's position in the global manufacturing and the global market.

One example is the West's treatment of electric vehicles produced in China.

In a recent interview with the Telegraph, a senior British government official said, "If it is manufactured in a country like China, how certain can you be that it won't be a vehicle for collecting intel and data?"

Jim Saker, president of the Institute of the Motor Industry, put it more sinisterly and told The Times that "the threat of connected electric vehicles flooding the country could be the most effective Trojan horse that the Chinese establishment has."

The backdrop to this concern is that China has become the world's largest producer of electric cars, with surging exports knocking on the doors of the US and Europe.

All products related to the internet and AI technology undoubtedly face information security concerns. But highlighting the ideological attributes of this issue, rather than addressing it realistically through legal provisions that are consistent with a market economy, is clearly contrary to the order emphasized by the West, and underscores the fact that this so-called order, which is used to bash China, is in fact self-serving, narrow-minded and conservative.

In the final analysis, it is evident the West can't accept the challenge posed by China's change, and still recognizes in its bones that China can only be inferior to the West as a follower, rather than a leader.

China is changing, the Global South is changing, and such changes are bound to touch Western interests. If the West pushes China to the hostile side because of their inability to accept such changes, in the end, China will not be the only one facing difficulties and challenges.

Whether the West is willing to share the order they have built over the past 500 years is directly related to the advancement or retreat of human development.

[cmpmobile]

India Overtakes Japan: Asia Power Index 2024 Explained

For the first time, India has overtaken Japan to bag the third spot, in the list of countries in terms of its power in Asia. The Asia Power Index Report 2024 curated by Australian think tank Lowy Institute, suggests that India’s power in the continent is growing. The index, measuring the resources and influence to rank the ‘relative power of states in Asia’, ranks 27 countries and territories in…

[nawapon17]

Geopolitical fantasists: No, Trump won’t pull off a “reverse Nixon” | Lowy Institute

[head-post]

Pacific Islands leaders endorse controversial regional policing plan

Australia and Pacific Islands nations endorsed a plan on Wednesday to boost regional security by improving police training and creating a mobile regional police unit.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said leaders approved the A$400 million (US$271 million) proposal at a summit in Tonga on Wednesday.

Under the plan, four training centres would be established in the Pacific with a separate centre in the Australian city of Brisbane. The initiative will also create a multi-country police force of about 200 officers who will be deployed to countries in the region in the event of major events or crises. Albanese said as he welcomed the agreement at the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF):

This demonstrates how Pacific leaders are working together to shape the future that we want to see.

He was assisted by leaders from Fiji, Palau, Papua New Guinea and Tonga in a symbolic show of unity in a region where rivalry between China and the US is intensifying.

Peacekeeping missions in Pacific Islands

Australia and New Zealand, both founding members of the MBF, have traditionally been the region’s main security partners, leading peacekeeping missions in the Solomon Islands and providing training in Nauru, Fiji and Papua New Guinea. But China, a major infrastructure lender in the region, is also developing ties, having signed a secret security pact with the Solomon Islands in 2022.

Beijing’s attempt at a region-wide agreement later that year ended in failure, but it is providing martial arts training and Chinese-made vehicles to police in several Pacific countries.

Beijing’s closest allies in the region have expressed concern that Australia’s policing plan is aimed at pushing back against Beijing.

While all forum members have endorsed the deal in principle, national leaders will have to decide how much, if any, involvement they will have.

Some Pacific leaders hope the agreement can plug gaps in their own security, while Canberra hopes it will help “close the window for China to seek a regional security agreement,” Mihai Sora of the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based think tank, told AFP news agency.

Read more HERE

[southeastasianarchaeology]

Preserving the Heritage of Southeast Asia’s Sea Nomads

Sea nomads in Southeast Asia face threats from climate change and overfishing. Regional cooperation is essential to preserve their cultural heritage and environmental knowledge. #southeastasianarchaeology #climatechange #seanomads

via The Lowy Institute, 19 July 2024: Southeast Asia’s sea nomads, including the Moken, Bajau, and Orang Laut, face an uncertain future due to climate change, overfishing, and unsupportive government policies. These communities, vital for ocean conservation, risk losing their traditional way of life and cultural heritage. Coordinated regional efforts are essential to preserve their unique…