Grand Prix Final Math
So, out of boredom and love for math, I decided to calculate how several skaters could make the Grand Prix Final. If I made a mistake, please comment under the post. Also, for convenience sake, I’m only considering those with 22 points and those who placed 4th or higher and are going to Espoo (except for Pairs).
Men
Currently in:
Shoma Uno (30 points: 15 + 15)
Kao Miura (26 points: 13 + 13)
Sota Yamamoto (26 points: 13 + 13)
Daniel Grassl (24 points: 9 + 15)
On the cusp:
Adam Siao Him Fa (22 points: 15 + 7)
Cha Jun-hwan (22 points: 11 + 11)
Heading to Espoo:
Ilia Malinin (15 points)
Shun Sato (11 points)
Keegan Messing (9 points)
Path to the GPF:
Keegan: Gets in if he wins (24 points: 9 + 15)
Shun: Gets in if he’s 2nd place or higher (24 or 26 points: 9 + 13 or 9 + 15), unless Keegan wins (24 points but higher placement) and Ilia gets 3rd or 4th place (26 points or 24 points but higher placement)
Ilia: Gets in if he’s in 4th or higher (24-30 points: 15 + (9 to 15)), and a good chance of getting in at 5th place (22 points, but more likely to have a higher total score than Adam), unless Keegan wins and Shun get 2nd place (both 24 points) and he’s 5th place or lower (< or = 22 points)
Adam: Shun gets 3rd place (22 points, but Adam has the higher placement) or lower (< 22 points), or Ilia gets 6th place or lower (< or = 20 points) or he places 5th and Adam beats his combined scores (probable but unlikely), and Keegan gets 2nd place (22 points, but Adam has the higher placement) or lower (<22 points)
Jun-hwan: Two of the above happen to Ilia, Shun, and/or Keegan
Women
Currently in:
Kaori Sakamoto (28 points: 15 + 13)
Kim Ye-lim (28 points: 13 + 15)
Isabeau Levito (26 points: 13 + 13)
On the cusp:
Rinka Watanabe (22 points: 15 + 7)
Rion Sumiyoshi (22 points: 11 + 11)
Heading to Espoo:
Mai Mahara (15 points)
Loena Hendrickx (15 points)
Anastasiia Gubanova (11 points)
Path to the GPF:
Anastasiia: Gets in if she’s 2nd or higher (24 or 26 points: 11 + 13 or 11 + 15)
Loena: Gets in if she’s 4th or higher (24-30 points: 15 + (9 to 15)), and a good chance of getting in at 5th place (22 points, but a higher placement than Rion and a more than likely higher combined score than Rinka)
Mai: Gets in if she’s 4th or higher (24-30 points: 15 + (9 to 15)), and a good chance of getting in at 5th place (22 points, but a higher placement than Rion and a more than likely higher combined score than Rinka)
Rinka: Gets in if either Loena or Mai get 6th place or lower (< or = 20 points) or place fifth and have a smaller combined score than Rinka (unlikely for both) or Anastasiia gets 3rd place (22 points, but Rinka has the higher placement) or lower (< or = 20 points)
Rion: Two of the above happen to Anastasiia, Loena, or Mai
Ice Dance
Currently in:
Charlene Guignard/ Marco Fabbri (30 points: 15 + 15)
Laurence Fournier-Beaudry/ Nikolaj Sorensen (28 points: 13 + 15)
Madison Chock/ Evan Bates (28 points: 15 + 13)
Lilah Fear/ Lewis Gibson (26 points: 13 + 13)
On the cusp:
Marjorie Lajoie/ Zachary Lagha (22 points: 11 + 11)
Going to Espoo:
Piper Gilles/ Paul Poirier (15 points)
Kaitlin Hawayak/ Jean-Luc Baker (13 points)
Christina Carreira/ Anthony Ponomarenko (9 points)
Path to GPF:
C/P: Get in if they win (24 points: 9 + 15) and H/B are not 2nd place (26 points) or G/P are 5th or lower (< or = 22 points) or in 4th place and C/P beat their combined score (unlikely)
H/B: Get in if they are 2nd or higher (26 or 28 points: 13 + 13 or 13 + 15) or 3rd place if C/P doesn’t win (24 points, but C/P would have the higher place), or 4th place if G/P get lower than 5th place (< or = 20 points) and C/P are 2nd, and H/B beat their combined total score (likely), or lower (< 22 points)
G/P: Get in if they are 4th place or higher (24 to 30 points: 15 + (9 to 15)) or 5th place if C/P don’t win or H/B place 4th (22 points, but G/P would have the higher placement) or lower (< or = 20 points)
La/La: Get in if G/P are 6th or lower (15 points total) or H/B are 5th or lower (13 or 20 points total, or both if C/P win (24 points) or gets 2nd (22 points, but C/P would have the higher placement)
Pairs
Currently in:
Riku Miura/ Ryuichi Kihara (30 points: 15 + 15)
Alexa Knierim/ Brandon Frazier (30 points: 15 + 15)
Deanna Stellato-Dudek/ Maxime Deschamps (28 points: 13 +15)
Emily Chan/ Spencer Akira Howe (26 points: 13 + 13)
Sara Conti/ Niccolo Macii (24 points: 11 + 13)
Going to Espoo:
Rebecca Ghilardi/ Filippo Ambrosini (9 points)
Anastasiia Metelkina/ Daniil Parkman (9 points)
Anna Valesi/ Manuel Piazza (7 points)
Daria Danilova/ Michel Tsiba (5 points)
Path to GPF:
G/A: Get in if they win or place second (22 points) if D/T wins (20 points)
M/P: Get in if they win or place second (22 points) if D/T wins (20 points)
V/P: Get in if they win (22 points)
D/T: Get in if they win (20 points) unless G/A or M/P place second (22 points)
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Grand Prix Espoo Masterpost
Note: Below is a masterpost of everything I live-posted on Mastodon during #GPEspoo (most recent post first). Moving forward, these will all be individual live posts on Tumblr. Subscribe for more. 😉
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Men, Final Result #GPEspoo
🥇 Ilia MALININ, USA, 278.39
🥈 Shun SATO, JPN, 262.21
🥉 Kévin AYMOZ, FRA, 255.69
4. Tatsuya TSUBOI, JPN, 244.90
5. Camden PULKINEN, USA, 229.92
6. Nikolaj MAJOROV, SWE, 209.55
7. Arlet LEVANDI, EST, 209.50
8. Keegan MESSING, CAN, 205.02
9. Valtter VIRTANEN, FIN, 204.02
10. Aleksandr SELEVKO, EST, 199.47
11. Lucas Tsuyoshi HONDA, JPN, 197.90
12. Morisi KVITELASHVILI, GEO, 196.80
#GPFigure #FigureSkating
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Kévin AYMOZ
FRA
3Lz2T, 3A2T, 3A(hangs on), 3Lz, 3T1Eu3S, 3F, 2A
TES: 76.56
PCS: 90.17
Ded: 0.00
TSS: 166.73
TOTAL: 255.69
Currently: 3rd
How can you not love Kévin Aymoz? Doesn't have the quads, but all of the skaters should take note of his skating skills. Better presentation IMO than last week at Warsaw Cup.
#GPFigure #GPEspoo #FigureSkating
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Ilia MALININ
USA
4A(hand down), 4F, 4T, 4S, 4T1Eu3S, 3F3T, 3F3A
TES: 109.20
PCS: 83.62
Ded: 0.00
TSS: 192.82
TOTAL: 278.39
Currently: 1st
Not a perfect 4A, but so many of the other quads were absolutely textbook. Not as high as his Skate America score, but the Quadg0d has just qualified for his first GP Final!
#GPFigure #GPEspoo #FigureSkating
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Shun SATO
JPN
4Lz, 4T3T, 3A, 4T, 3A2T, 3F1Eu3S, 3Lo
TES: 97.73
PCS: 82.89
Ded: 0
TSS: 180.62 (SB)
TOTAL: 262.21
Currently: 1st
HUGE jumps. Putting the pressure on Malinin!
#GPFigure #GPEspoo #FigureSkating
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Keegan MESSING
CAN
4T(ur,fall), 4T, 3A(knee down), 1Lo, 3A(ur,fall), 3Lz, 3F(hand down),
TES: 45.11
PCS: 81.79
Ded: 2.00
TSS: 124.90
TOTAL: 205.02
Currently: 5th
Nasty fall on that first 4T. No clue how he recovered for the second one! That's guts. Second 3A just didn't get the height.
#GPFigure #GPEspoo #FigureSkating
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Tatsuya TSUBOI
JPN
4S, 3A, 3A1Eu3S, 3Lo, 3F3T, 3F, 3Lz2T
TES: 87.46
PCS: 78.62
Ded: 0.00
TSS: 166.08
TOTAL: 244.90
Currently: 1st
Great skate, technically. Jumps were SMOOTH. Components need work... not much to this choreographically until the very end.
#GPFigure #GPEspoo #FigureSkating
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Arlet LEVANDI
EST
3A(ur,fall), 3Lz3T, 3F(step), 2A, 3Lz1Eu3S, 3F(hangs on)2A(hangs on), 3Lo
TES: 63.44
PCS: 75.39
Ded: 2.00
TSS: 136.83 (SB)
TOTAL: 209.50
Currently: 3rd
Strange fall there during the step sequence, and definitely some ur calls on those jumps. Will be interesting to see this program progress.
#GPFigure #GPEspoo #FigureSkating
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Standings After Group 1, Men Free Skate #GPEspoo:
1. Camden PULKINEN, USA, 229.92
2. Nikolaj MAJOROV, SWE, 209.55
3. Valtter VIRTANEN, FIN, 204.02
4. Aleksandr SELEVKO, EST, 199.47
5. Lucas Tsuyoshi HONDA, JPN, 197.90
6. Morisi KVITELASHVILI, GEO, 196.80
Group 2 now on the ice for warmup: LEVANDI, TSUBOI, MESSING, SATO, MALININ, AYMOZ.
#GPFigure #FigureSkating
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Camden PULKINEN
USA
4T, 3Lz3T, 3A1Eu1S, 3Lo, 3F, 3A, 2Lz2A
TES: 76.85
PCS: 80.62
TSS: 157.47 (SB)
TOTAL: 229.92
Currently: 1st
Strong effort by Cam. He looked absolutely out of breath mid-performance but he fought for that second 3A. Definitely his best FS this far this season. Hopefully this gives him some confidence going into Golden Spin.
#GPFigure #GPEspoo #FigureSkating
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Nikolaj MAJOROV
SWE
3A, 3Lz3T(turn), 3F1Eu3S, 3Lo(turn), 3Lz(step), 2A(turn), 3F
TES: 64.82
PCS: 74.49
Ded: 0.00
TSS: 139.61
TOTAL: 209.55
Currently: 1st
Not sure how he didn't go down on some of those jumps that he hung on to. He's all over the place with technique.
#GPFigure #GPEspoo #FigureSkating
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Valtter VIRTANEN
FIN
3Lz2T, 3Lz(hangs on), 3T2A, 3S, 3T2T2Lo, 3Lo, 2A(hangs on)
TES: 62.71
PCS: 73.16
Ded: 1.00
TSS: 134.87
TOTAL: 204.02
Currently: 1st
This guy is an ER DOCTOR and is 35 years old. Smashing ageism in the sport. So happy for him to have a skate like this on home ice.
#GPFigure #GPEspoo #FigureSkating
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Lucas Tsuyoski HONDA
JPN
3S, 1A, 3A(fall), 3Lo, 3Lz3T, 3F(step)1A, 3Lz2T2T
TES: 58.55
PCS: 72.43
Ded: 1.00
TSS: 129.98
TOTAL: 197.90
Currently: 2nd
Need to look at protocols but likely a number of ur calls.
#ISUGrandPrix #GPEspoo #FigureSkating
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Aleksandr SELEVKO
EST
3Lz3T, 3T, 2A(fall), 3F, 2A2T2T, 3Lz(step), 3Lo
TES: 58.72
PCS: 74.79
Ded: 1.00
TSS: 132.51
TOTAL: 199.47
Currently: 1st
Rallied for the last 45 seconds, for a strong finish but downgraded too much of the planned program content.
#GPFigure #GPEspoo #FigureSkating
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Morisi KVITELASHVILI
GEO
4S3T, 3A(step), 4T(fall), 3Lo, 1T, 3F1Eu3S, 4T(fall)
TES: 63.12
PCS: 73.26
Ded: 2.00
TSS: 134.38
TOTAL: 196.80
Currently: 1st
Morisi's flop era continues!
#GPFigure #GPEspoo #FigureSkating
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Group 1 on the ice for the Men Free Skate at #GPEspoo:
KVITELASHVILI, SELEVKO, HONDA, VIRTANEN, MAJOROV, PULKINEN.
#ISUGrandPrix #FigureSkating
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