#FederalReserv

[scienza-magia]

Eurozona, tassi ed inflazione rallentano il mercato dell'export

Tassi, le strade diverse di Fed e Bce. L'economia Usa regge e Powell può alzare ancora. L'Europa invece rischia la recessione. Jerome Powell e Christine Lagarde sono arrivati con stati d'animo diversi tra le montagne del Wyoming, dove ieri si è aperto il simposio dei banchieri centrali organizzato dalla Federal Reserve. Entrambi saliranno sul palco oggi, ma se al numero uno di Eccles Building basterà esibire una bella faccia da poker per non spaventare i mercati, a Madame Bce sarà richiesto ben altro sforzo. Stati Uniti ed eurozona sono al momento affetti da un'inflazione appiccicosa, ma sempre più separati sotto il profilo congiunturale. E questa divaricazione fa una grande differenza quando si deve giustificare la volontà di mantenere una politica monetaria restrittiva. Di sicuro a Jackson Hole ci sono alcuni convitati di pietra evocati fin dal titolo dell'evento («Cambiamenti strutturali nell'economia globale»): il primo è la Cina, con le tensioni geopolitiche ed economiche che la circondano; l'altro sono gli sviluppi della guerra fra Russia e Ucraina; il terzo è il consolidarsi all'interno dei Brics di un nocciolo duro anti-dollaro. Tre incognite di peso, ma non ancora sufficienti per spostare i riflettori dalla traiettoria dei tassi.

Ed è qui, in quello che per Eurolandia appare sempre più come un terreno minato, che Powell ha ancora margini per incastonare, a ottobre o a novembre, la dodicesima stretta che porterà il costo del denaro al 5,50-5,75%. Come sostiene Blerina Uruci di T. Rowe Price, per il capo dell'istituto di Washington «non è il momento di agitare le acque» mostrandosi troppo «hawkish». Non ne ha neppure bisogno: l'indice Atlanta Fed Gdp Now stima per il terzo trimestre un'espansione del 5,8% sorretta dallo slancio dei consumi, dal rimbalzo della produzione industriale, da un tasso di disoccupazione in calo (al 3,5% in luglio) e dalla tenuta del mercato edile. Al netto delle nuvole grigie nel cielo a stelle e strisce portate dalla decisione di Moody's e Standard&Poor's di declassare alcuni banche e dai 400 fallimenti da inizio anno (il doppio dello scorso anno), si tratta di numeri solidi a sostegno della tesi secondo cui è necessario non togliere il piede dal pedale dei tassi. Anche perché, dopo 13 mesi consecutivi di calo, l'inflazione è salita in luglio al 3,2%. L'aspetto cruciale del discorso di oggi di Powell non è quindi se i tassi saliranno ancora, ma quando smetteranno di farlo. È però probabile che sul cosiddetto «pivot» il successore della Yellen tenga le carte coperte. La sola certezza è che un eventuale taglio del costo del denaro non arriverà prima del 2024, come peraltro confermato ieri da Patrick Harker, presidente della Fed di Philadelphia, che tuttavia prevede «tassi stabili per il resto dell'anno». Più complicato appare invece il lavoro della Bce. La Lagarde ha legato le prossime decisioni di politica monetaria ai dati economici, ma se l'inflazione è considerata ancora fuori controllo malgrado il calo di luglio (6,1% dal 6,4% di giugno), la contrazione subita anche dal settore dei servizi mostra che Eurolandia è sul binario della recessione. Il rallentamento della crescita cinese è un'arma a doppio taglio: se da un lato può accelerare il processo disinflazionistico, dall'altro rischia di indebolire l'export europeo, come già testimoniano le cifre dell'Ocse. L'Organizzazione parigina dà infatti conto che le esportazioni di merci del G20 sono calate da aprile a giugno del 3,1% (dopo +2,2% nel primo trimestre), con l'Italia finita in «rosso» (-0,7% dopo il +4,7% del primo trimestre). Buoni motivi per tenere le mani lontane dai tassi e vedere che succede. Read the full article

[admirer-jerome-powell]

[trader-sg112]

Gold Prices Hold Near One-Month Highs Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation: Market Insights and Analysis

In the dynamic world of commodities trading, gold prices have recently been a focal point, with bullion prices hovering close to one-month highs and nearing the pivotal $2,400 per ounce mark. This surge comes amidst mounting speculation that the Federal Reserve will embark on interest rate cuts as early as September, a move aimed at bolstering economic recovery amidst persistent global uncertainties.

Gold's Resilience in Current Market Dynamics

Spot gold, a reliable indicator of market sentiment, experienced a slight dip of 0.3% in Asian trading, settling at $2,384.47 per ounce. Similarly, August gold futures saw a marginal decrease of 0.2%, trading at $2,392.55 per ounce. Despite these minor corrections, the overall sentiment remains bullish, underpinned by investor optimism fueled by expectations of monetary easing by the Fed.

Broader Metals Market Movements

Alongside gold, other precious metals also displayed mixed movements. Platinum futures declined by 0.6% to $1,039.25 per ounce, reflecting varied investor sentiment within the sector. Silver futures followed suit with a 1% drop to $31.370 per ounce, illustrating divergent market dynamics in the precious metals arena.

Impact of Dollar Weakness on Metal Prices

A significant factor influencing these movements was the weakening of the US dollar, which hit a near one-month low. The inverse relationship between the dollar and commodity prices was evident as the dollar's depreciation bolstered demand for commodities priced in USD, including gold and silver.

Copper's Surprising Rally

Contrary to the downward trend in precious metals, copper futures on the London Metal Exchange surged by 1% to $9,983.0 per ton. This unexpected rally underscores copper's critical role as an industrial metal, influenced by global economic indicators and infrastructure developments.

Market Outlook and Strategic Considerations

Looking ahead, market participants are closely monitoring upcoming economic data releases and Federal Reserve announcements for further clues on interest rate adjustments. The prospect of lower interest rates typically supports non-interest-bearing assets like gold, enhancing its appeal as a safe-haven investment during uncertain economic times.

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[monriatitans]

Project 2025 Mandate For Leadership: Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming: Internet Archive

Just in case The Heritage Foundation decides to take it down. The link was being shared around on Threads so I thought I’d pay it forward.

If Trump gets back into office, The Heritage Foundation will advise him on how to tear everything keeping us safe down.

[usa-journal]

US Inflation Rises Slightly, but Sentiment Improves Amid Political Shift

Amid a slight uptick in US inflation to 2.7% last month, many Americans are reporting greater confidence in their financial stability, bolstered by falling petrol prices and a shifting political landscape.

Petrol prices, now at their lowest in three years, have eased financial strain for households. "I’m filling my tank to the top now," said Josh Kerben, a 36-year-old property manager in New York, reflecting the improved financial outlook for many.

While inflation remains higher than the US Federal Reserve's 2% target, it is far below the peak of June 2022, when the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent fuel prices soaring. However, areas like housing and groceries continue to see price increases, overshadowing broader economic gains for some.

The economic debate played a decisive role in last month’s presidential election, helping Donald Trump secure a return to the White House. His supporters, like Mr. Kerben, are optimistic about the future. "Compared to two months ago, I feel more confident," he said.

Yet, the path forward remains uncertain. November’s inflation rate, up from 2.6% in October, marks the highest since July. Petrol prices rose slightly compared to October, while groceries and other essentials saw notable increases.

This has raised questions about how President Trump will address cost-of-living concerns. Economic strategist Lindsay James noted the challenges ahead, citing higher government spending and potential tariffs as factors that could add inflationary pressures.

The Federal Reserve, which lowered interest rates in September for the first time in four years, is expected to consider further cuts this month. However, analysts warn that rates may remain elevated into next year unless inflation in non-petrol sectors slows significantly.

For Americans like Grier Bowen, a 48-year-old cancer survivor reliant on disability payments, the mixed economic signals are concerning. While lower fuel prices provide some relief, rising costs in other areas continue to strain budgets. "You save in one place, but end up reallocating somewhere else," she said, expressing cautious hope about Trump’s potential impact.

As inflation edges back into focus, the US faces critical decisions on economic policy in the months ahead. Whether recent optimism translates into lasting financial relief remains to be seen.

[unitedventurez]

Fed Likely to Cut Rates This Month, Debate on 2025 Pause Intensifies

The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in December, following strong yet cooling job market data from November. U.S. employers added 227,000 jobs, bouncing back from October's slowdown caused by hurricanes. However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, and over the past six months, monthly job gains have averaged less than 150,000, raising concerns about keeping up with the growing population.

Fed officials, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, indicated that further rate cuts are likely, though the pace may slow. Daly emphasized that while another rate cut this month seems reasonable, future cuts will be more cautious as the policy rate nears its final level.

Market expectations surged following the jobs report, with traders increasing the probability of a rate cut at the upcoming December 17-18 meeting to 85%, up from below 70% previously. A rate cut of 0.25% would bring the Fed's policy rate to the 4.25%-4.50% range.

While many expect continued cuts through December, there is growing debate about pausing rate reductions in early 2025. Fed officials like Beth Hammack and Michelle Bowman have expressed the need for caution, citing still-elevated inflation and a healthy labor market. Powell’s recent comments on managing inflation risks suggest the Fed could slow the pace of rate cuts after December, with some analysts predicting a pause as soon as January.

[rethinking-the-dollar]

Gold and Bitcoin: Allies or Rivals? Discover why the dollar's collapse is the true enemy of the people and why our financial future is jeopardized. Watch now to stay ahead of the curve!

[unpluggedfinancial]

Bitcoin Going Parabolic: A Closer Look at the Factors Driving the Surge

Bitcoin has been a subject of fascination and debate for over a decade. Recently, the buzz around its potential parabolic rise has reached new heights. With multiple presidential nominees proposing to make Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset and groundbreaking legislative efforts, the cryptocurrency is poised for a significant breakthrough. In this blog post, we will explore the factors contributing to Bitcoin's potential meteoric rise and what this could mean for the future of finance.

Current Market Overview

The Bitcoin market has seen remarkable stability and growth over the past year. Despite global economic uncertainties, Bitcoin's price has maintained an upward trajectory, driven by increased adoption and growing institutional interest. The market's resilience has only strengthened the belief that Bitcoin is here to stay.

Factors Driving Bitcoin's Potential Parabolic Rise

Institutional Adoption Institutional investment in Bitcoin has been one of the most significant drivers of its price surge. Companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square have made substantial Bitcoin purchases, demonstrating their confidence in its long-term value. Recently, MicroStrategy announced plans to raise $2 billion to buy more Bitcoin, adding to its already significant holdings of 226,500 BTC. This move exemplifies the growing trend of institutions recognizing Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and economic instability.

Regulatory Developments Positive regulatory changes are also contributing to Bitcoin's upward momentum. Notably, several presidential nominees in the upcoming election have expressed their support for Bitcoin, proposing to make it a strategic reserve asset for the United States. Additionally, Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced a groundbreaking bill to establish a U.S. Bitcoin reserve. This legislation aims to treat Bitcoin like gold or oil, strengthening the country's economy and positioning Bitcoin as a permanent national asset. Such initiatives could legitimize Bitcoin on a national level, potentially triggering a wave of similar actions from other countries.

Monetary Policy Shifts The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in September, a move that historically leads to Bitcoin price pumps. Lower interest rates often result in increased liquidity in the financial system, driving investors to seek alternative stores of value like Bitcoin. Moreover, the global M2 money supply is skyrocketing, indicating a significant increase in the amount of money in circulation. This surge in money supply can lead to inflation, further underscoring the appeal of Bitcoin as a deflationary asset.

Technological Advancements Bitcoin's underlying technology continues to evolve, enhancing its security, efficiency, and scalability. Innovations such as the Lightning Network and Taproot upgrade are making Bitcoin transactions faster and more cost-effective, further cementing its position as a superior financial instrument.

Historical Parabolic Trends in Bitcoin

Bitcoin's history is marked by several parabolic rises, each driven by different factors but sharing common themes of increased adoption and market maturation. The 2017 bull run, fueled by retail investor interest, and the 2020-2021 surge, driven by institutional adoption, provide valuable insights into the current trend. Studying these patterns helps us understand the potential trajectory of Bitcoin's price movement.

Expert Predictions and Analysis

Experts in the field of cryptocurrency are making bold predictions about Bitcoin's future. Influential figures like Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, and Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, have forecasted Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs. Their analyses are based on Bitcoin's scarcity, growing adoption, and its role as digital gold.

Potential Challenges and Risks

While the outlook for Bitcoin is promising, it is essential to acknowledge the potential challenges and risks. Regulatory hurdles, market volatility, and technological vulnerabilities could impact Bitcoin's growth. Investors must remain vigilant and informed to navigate these challenges effectively.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's potential to go parabolic is underpinned by strong institutional support, favorable regulatory developments, and continuous technological advancements. As multiple presidential nominees propose to make Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset and Senator Lummis's groundbreaking bill aims to establish a U.S. Bitcoin reserve, the stage is set for a significant transformation in the financial landscape. With MicroStrategy's aggressive strategy to raise $2 billion for more Bitcoin purchases and the expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the momentum is undeniable. Additionally, the skyrocketing global M2 money supply highlights the growing need for a deflationary asset like Bitcoin. Whether you're an investor, a crypto enthusiast, or a curious observer, staying informed about these developments is crucial as we witness the evolution of Bitcoin.

Take Action Towards Financial Independence

If this article has sparked your interest in the transformative potential of Bitcoin, there's so much more to explore! Dive deeper into the world of financial independence and revolutionize your understanding of money by following my blog and subscribing to my YouTube channel.

🌐 Blog: Unplugged Financial Blog Stay updated with insightful articles, detailed analyses, and practical advice on navigating the evolving financial landscape. Learn about the history of money, the flaws in our current financial systems, and how Bitcoin can offer a path to a more secure and independent financial future.

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[admirer-jerome-powell]

[lydiadavisteam]

STAY INFORMED!

Catch up on the latest US politics update! From Trump's refusal to accept defeat to his attempts to undermine institutions, get the inside scoop on what's really going on.

Watch now and join the conversation!

[visionarycios]

Markets Navigate New Trump Policies as Tariff Announcements Shake Sectors

Source: ndtv.com

The financial markets are already feeling the impact of Trump’s policies, with investors closely monitoring his statements and their implications. On Tuesday, markets managed to hit record highs despite concerns over new tariffs and their potential economic repercussions.

Fed Signals Gradual Rate Reductions

Minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s November meeting revealed that officials expect to gradually lower interest rates to a neutral stance. This easing is contingent on inflation continuing to decline toward the 2% target and the economy maintaining maximum employment. While this indicates a cautious approach by the Fed, the possibility of achieving these targets offers hope for rate reductions in the near future.

Markets Hit Highs Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Despite Trump’s threats to impose tariffs, the U.S. stock market reached new highs. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at record levels on Tuesday. However, European markets showed a contrasting picture, with the Stoxx 600 falling by 0.57%, mainly due to a decline in auto stocks. Daimler Truck suffered a 6% drop, reflecting the strain on the automotive sector.

Automotive Sector Faces Headwinds

The automotive industry bore the brunt of Trump’s latest announcements. Shares of General Motors and Stellantis dropped following Trump’s plans to introduce a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada and Mexico. Additionally, a 10% tariff on goods from China is expected to add pressure on the sector.

Goldman Sachs estimates that these tariffs could increase core inflation by nearly 1%, creating additional economic challenges. Automakers with manufacturing bases in Mexico are particularly vulnerable, as 26% of U.S. auto imports come from Mexico. UBS highlighted the significant dependency of U.S. automakers on Mexican manufacturing, making the proposed tariffs a critical issue for the industry.

Ceasefire Agreement Between Israel and Hezbollah

Amid financial developments, global political tensions saw a positive turn. President Joe Biden announced a permanent ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, scheduled to take effect on Wednesday. The agreement, brokered by the U.S. and France, includes a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon over the next 60 days. This development provides hope for stability in a region long plagued by conflict.

Inflation Data on the Horizon

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, is set to be released on Wednesday. Economists predict a slight uptick in annual inflation, which could influence the Fed’s approach to interest rates and the broader economic outlook.

Tariffs Continue to Dominate Market Sentiment

Trump’s proposed tariff policies are shaping investor behavior even before he takes office. The so-called Trump trade has seen risk assets surge since his election win. While markets stalled briefly amid fears of inflation and slower economic growth, they regained momentum after Trump announced Scott Bessent as his Treasury Secretary pick, signaling confidence in Trump’s policies.

The announcement of higher tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada has reignited concerns. Together, these three nations account for 43% of U.S. goods imports, highlighting the significant impact of these tariffs. According to experts, the economic drag caused by tariffs is likely to outweigh the benefits of tax cuts in the coming months.

Mixed Reactions from Investors

The broader market showed resilience despite challenges in individual sectors. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.28%. Both indexes closed at record highs, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.63%.

Analysts suggest that markets are becoming more comfortable with the possibility that Trump’s tariff threats are primarily negotiation tactics rather than imminent actions. However, uncertainty remains, and Trump’s policies are expected to influence market trends in the foreseeable future.

While the broader market advances, specific sectors like the automotive industry face significant hurdles. Investors are left balancing optimism about economic growth with caution over the potential risks posed by tariffs and other policy changes.

[enterprisewired]

US Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates but Signals Slower Easing Ahead

Source: economictimes.indiatimes.com

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Fed Maintains Caution Amid Economic Stability

The United States Federal Reserve announced a Fed rate cut while signaling a more cautious approach to future reductions. The decision reflects stable economic conditions, with unemployment remaining low and inflation showing limited improvement. In its latest policy statement, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stated that “economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace,” and inflation “remains somewhat elevated.”

This marked slowdown in rate cuts was underscored by new language in the FOMC’s statement, indicating that future adjustments will hinge on incoming data and risk assessments. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized this cautious approach during a news conference, noting that risks to inflation and economic growth are now more balanced. The Fed’s projections now suggest only two quarter-percentage-point rate reductions through 2025, a more conservative stance than previously anticipated.

The central bank also adjusted its outlook for inflation, projecting a rise to 2.5% in the first year of the new administration, significantly above its 2% target. This inflationary pressure, paired with stable unemployment, signals a slower path to reaching the Fed’s goals. The latest reduction in the benchmark policy rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5% reflects these concerns.

Rate Cuts Reflect Inflation and Growth Challenges

The Fed’s decision to moderate its rate-cutting pace is tied to slower-than-expected progress on inflation. Projections indicate that inflation is unlikely to return to the 2% target until 2027. This sluggish progress has prompted the Fed to reassess its long-run neutral rate of interest, raising it to 3%. The Fed rate cut represents a level that neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity.

Despite the rate cut, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack voted against the decision, favoring no change in policy rates. Analysts, such as Whitney Watson of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, anticipate a pause in January’s easing cycle before resuming in March, signaling the Fed’s commitment to gradual policy adjustments.

Powell described the latest Fed rate cut as a “closer call,” indicating that higher-than-expected inflation in 2024 was a critical factor in slowing the pace of cuts. The Fed’s projections also show continued economic growth above potential, with unemployment unlikely to rise significantly. However, some uncertainty remains as policymakers weigh the risks of premature or excessive easing.

Trump Administration Brings New Uncertainties

The Fed’s latest policy projections arrive in the context of a changing political landscape. With President-elect Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration, uncertainty looms over potential economic policies, including tax cuts, tariff hikes, and immigration reforms. These proposals, if enacted, could introduce inflationary pressures, complicating the Fed’s policy decisions.

While Trump’s administration doesn’t take office until January 20, the Fed remains cautious about adjusting monetary policy based on speculative policy changes. However, internal discussions likely include scenarios reflecting the new administration’s possible impact on growth and inflation. Current projections suggest that growth will stay above potential at 2.1% in 2024, inflation will exceed the target for two more years, and unemployment will remain low at 4.3%.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to balance the Fed rate cut with economic stability highlights the complexities of navigating an evolving economic and political landscape. As Powell stated, the focus remains on ensuring that inflation trends align with long-term goals while safeguarding economic growth and employment stability.

[keepingcurrentrealestate]

Elections and Their Effects on Real Estate Trends

How Do Presidential Elections Impact the Housing Market? A Closer Look at Trends and Policies Presidential elections bring changes that go beyond politics—they can significantly influence the housing market. By reviewing data from earlier election cycles, we can better understand how elections shape real estate trends. Expert insights help us learn what it means for buyers, sellers, and…

[farademetre]

Mortgage Rates Were Supposed to Come Down. Instead, They're Rising

Concerns about inflation, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and general economic uncertainties are some of the major causes of consistently high rates.

[cambcurrencies]

Forex Market Update: Oil Gains, Currency Movements & Metals

Market Overview: October 24, 2024 This morning, we await data releases. So far, Energy prices are climbing, and metals are showing a mixed picture. Currencies remain steady, with minor movements as traders wait for minor data out later this afternoon. Get a Free Quote Key Data Points Eurozone PMI Flash Estimates (Oct): Manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 45.0, and Services PMI at 51.6. Key for…