#FederalReserv

[scienza-magia]

Eurozona, tassi ed inflazione rallentano il mercato dell'export

Tassi, le strade diverse di Fed e Bce. L'economia Usa regge e Powell può alzare ancora. L'Europa invece rischia la recessione. Jerome Powell e Christine Lagarde sono arrivati con stati d'animo diversi tra le montagne del Wyoming, dove ieri si è aperto il simposio dei banchieri centrali organizzato dalla Federal Reserve. Entrambi saliranno sul palco oggi, ma se al numero uno di Eccles Building basterà esibire una bella faccia da poker per non spaventare i mercati, a Madame Bce sarà richiesto ben altro sforzo. Stati Uniti ed eurozona sono al momento affetti da un'inflazione appiccicosa, ma sempre più separati sotto il profilo congiunturale. E questa divaricazione fa una grande differenza quando si deve giustificare la volontà di mantenere una politica monetaria restrittiva. Di sicuro a Jackson Hole ci sono alcuni convitati di pietra evocati fin dal titolo dell'evento («Cambiamenti strutturali nell'economia globale»): il primo è la Cina, con le tensioni geopolitiche ed economiche che la circondano; l'altro sono gli sviluppi della guerra fra Russia e Ucraina; il terzo è il consolidarsi all'interno dei Brics di un nocciolo duro anti-dollaro. Tre incognite di peso, ma non ancora sufficienti per spostare i riflettori dalla traiettoria dei tassi.

Ed è qui, in quello che per Eurolandia appare sempre più come un terreno minato, che Powell ha ancora margini per incastonare, a ottobre o a novembre, la dodicesima stretta che porterà il costo del denaro al 5,50-5,75%. Come sostiene Blerina Uruci di T. Rowe Price, per il capo dell'istituto di Washington «non è il momento di agitare le acque» mostrandosi troppo «hawkish». Non ne ha neppure bisogno: l'indice Atlanta Fed Gdp Now stima per il terzo trimestre un'espansione del 5,8% sorretta dallo slancio dei consumi, dal rimbalzo della produzione industriale, da un tasso di disoccupazione in calo (al 3,5% in luglio) e dalla tenuta del mercato edile. Al netto delle nuvole grigie nel cielo a stelle e strisce portate dalla decisione di Moody's e Standard&Poor's di declassare alcuni banche e dai 400 fallimenti da inizio anno (il doppio dello scorso anno), si tratta di numeri solidi a sostegno della tesi secondo cui è necessario non togliere il piede dal pedale dei tassi. Anche perché, dopo 13 mesi consecutivi di calo, l'inflazione è salita in luglio al 3,2%. L'aspetto cruciale del discorso di oggi di Powell non è quindi se i tassi saliranno ancora, ma quando smetteranno di farlo. È però probabile che sul cosiddetto «pivot» il successore della Yellen tenga le carte coperte. La sola certezza è che un eventuale taglio del costo del denaro non arriverà prima del 2024, come peraltro confermato ieri da Patrick Harker, presidente della Fed di Philadelphia, che tuttavia prevede «tassi stabili per il resto dell'anno». Più complicato appare invece il lavoro della Bce. La Lagarde ha legato le prossime decisioni di politica monetaria ai dati economici, ma se l'inflazione è considerata ancora fuori controllo malgrado il calo di luglio (6,1% dal 6,4% di giugno), la contrazione subita anche dal settore dei servizi mostra che Eurolandia è sul binario della recessione. Il rallentamento della crescita cinese è un'arma a doppio taglio: se da un lato può accelerare il processo disinflazionistico, dall'altro rischia di indebolire l'export europeo, come già testimoniano le cifre dell'Ocse. L'Organizzazione parigina dà infatti conto che le esportazioni di merci del G20 sono calate da aprile a giugno del 3,1% (dopo +2,2% nel primo trimestre), con l'Italia finita in «rosso» (-0,7% dopo il +4,7% del primo trimestre). Buoni motivi per tenere le mani lontane dai tassi e vedere che succede. Read the full article

[admirer-jerome-powell]

[trader-sg112]

Gold Prices Hold Near One-Month Highs Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation: Market Insights and Analysis

In the dynamic world of commodities trading, gold prices have recently been a focal point, with bullion prices hovering close to one-month highs and nearing the pivotal $2,400 per ounce mark. This surge comes amidst mounting speculation that the Federal Reserve will embark on interest rate cuts as early as September, a move aimed at bolstering economic recovery amidst persistent global uncertainties.

Gold's Resilience in Current Market Dynamics

Spot gold, a reliable indicator of market sentiment, experienced a slight dip of 0.3% in Asian trading, settling at $2,384.47 per ounce. Similarly, August gold futures saw a marginal decrease of 0.2%, trading at $2,392.55 per ounce. Despite these minor corrections, the overall sentiment remains bullish, underpinned by investor optimism fueled by expectations of monetary easing by the Fed.

Broader Metals Market Movements

Alongside gold, other precious metals also displayed mixed movements. Platinum futures declined by 0.6% to $1,039.25 per ounce, reflecting varied investor sentiment within the sector. Silver futures followed suit with a 1% drop to $31.370 per ounce, illustrating divergent market dynamics in the precious metals arena.

Impact of Dollar Weakness on Metal Prices

A significant factor influencing these movements was the weakening of the US dollar, which hit a near one-month low. The inverse relationship between the dollar and commodity prices was evident as the dollar's depreciation bolstered demand for commodities priced in USD, including gold and silver.

Copper's Surprising Rally

Contrary to the downward trend in precious metals, copper futures on the London Metal Exchange surged by 1% to $9,983.0 per ton. This unexpected rally underscores copper's critical role as an industrial metal, influenced by global economic indicators and infrastructure developments.

Market Outlook and Strategic Considerations

Looking ahead, market participants are closely monitoring upcoming economic data releases and Federal Reserve announcements for further clues on interest rate adjustments. The prospect of lower interest rates typically supports non-interest-bearing assets like gold, enhancing its appeal as a safe-haven investment during uncertain economic times.

Stay Informed with Spectra Global Ltd

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[monriatitans]

Project 2025 Mandate For Leadership: Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming: Internet Archive

Just in case The Heritage Foundation decides to take it down. The link was being shared around on Threads so I thought I’d pay it forward.

If Trump gets back into office, The Heritage Foundation will advise him on how to tear everything keeping us safe down.

[keepingcurrentrealestate]

Elections and Their Effects on Real Estate Trends

How Do Presidential Elections Impact the Housing Market? A Closer Look at Trends and Policies Presidential elections bring changes that go beyond politics—they can significantly influence the housing market. By reviewing data from earlier election cycles, we can better understand how elections shape real estate trends. Expert insights help us learn what it means for buyers, sellers, and…

[farademetre]

Mortgage Rates Were Supposed to Come Down. Instead, They're Rising

Concerns about inflation, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and general economic uncertainties are some of the major causes of consistently high rates.

[enterprisewired]

U.S. Stock Market Faces Inflation Test Amid Soft-Landing Optimism

Source-preservegold.com

The U.S. stock market entered the Halloween season with optimism as investors cheered the potential for a soft economic landing. A robust September jobs report fueled hopes that inflation is cooling, yet it has also sparked concerns over the Federal Reserve’s next move. With inflation in check, investors are now questioning whether the Fed may have acted too aggressively by cutting interest rates by half a percentage point last month. Wall Street is now anxiously awaiting Thursday’s consumer-price-index (CPI) report, which could determine the market’s trajectory. Analysts warn that a hotter-than-expected CPI could slow the Fed’s ability to reduce interest rates and disrupt the ongoing U.S. stock market rally.

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal forecast headline inflation to increase by 0.1% in September, while core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to rise by 0.2%. The 12-month headline CPI is expected to cool to 2.3% from 2.5% in August, while core inflation remains steady at 3.2%. Experts like Nancy Tengler, CEO of Laffer Tengler Investments, caution that inflation pressures, such as rising housing costs, could become more entrenched due to external factors, including China’s recent monetary stimulus and tensions in the Middle East. These concerns, along with a brief port strike in the U.S., add to fears of inflation resurfacing later in the year.

Global Events Stoke Inflation Concerns

Global developments have exacerbated inflation concerns, particularly with Brent crude oil prices posting their largest weekly rise in two years, following tensions between Israel and Iran. Additionally, a short-lived port strike affecting the U.S. from Maine to Texas has heightened fears of supply-chain disruptions, further complicating inflation dynamics. Despite these concerns, some analysts, including Luke Tilley of Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors, believe these disruptions are likely to be short-term and may not trigger sustained inflation.

The September jobs report, which saw the U.S. economy add 254,000 jobs, exceeded expectations and provided some hope for a soft landing, where inflation cools without causing a recession. However, wage growth of 0.4% and a favorable port workers’ wage agreement have led experts like Steve Wyett of BOK Financial to caution that the path to the Fed’s 2% inflation target may still be slow. Some suggest that rising energy costs may cause short-term inflation spikes, but they are unlikely to result in long-term inflationary pressures.

Corporate Earnings in Focus Amid Market Uncertainty

Investors are also looking toward the third-quarter corporate earnings season, with major financial firms such as JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo & Co., and BlackRock reporting results this week. Earnings for companies in the S&P 500 are expected to rise by 4.6% year-over-year, though this is lower than the 7.8% growth anticipated earlier in the year. According to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet, this growth would mark the fifth consecutive quarter of earnings expansion for the S&P 500.

Despite inflation concerns and lower earnings growth estimates, some analysts believe there is potential for “upside surprises” in the U.S. stock market. Nancy Tengler highlighted that positive earnings could boost the market, especially given the high valuations of certain megacap technology stocks. While some anticipate a market pullback in October, many remain optimistic that strong earnings and profit margins could sustain the bull market through the end of the year. As the week closed, U.S. stock market showed modest gains, with the S&P 500 rising 0.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing less than 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 0.1%.

[unpluggedfinancial]

Bitcoin Going Parabolic: A Closer Look at the Factors Driving the Surge

Bitcoin has been a subject of fascination and debate for over a decade. Recently, the buzz around its potential parabolic rise has reached new heights. With multiple presidential nominees proposing to make Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset and groundbreaking legislative efforts, the cryptocurrency is poised for a significant breakthrough. In this blog post, we will explore the factors contributing to Bitcoin's potential meteoric rise and what this could mean for the future of finance.

Current Market Overview

The Bitcoin market has seen remarkable stability and growth over the past year. Despite global economic uncertainties, Bitcoin's price has maintained an upward trajectory, driven by increased adoption and growing institutional interest. The market's resilience has only strengthened the belief that Bitcoin is here to stay.

Factors Driving Bitcoin's Potential Parabolic Rise

Institutional Adoption Institutional investment in Bitcoin has been one of the most significant drivers of its price surge. Companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square have made substantial Bitcoin purchases, demonstrating their confidence in its long-term value. Recently, MicroStrategy announced plans to raise $2 billion to buy more Bitcoin, adding to its already significant holdings of 226,500 BTC. This move exemplifies the growing trend of institutions recognizing Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and economic instability.

Regulatory Developments Positive regulatory changes are also contributing to Bitcoin's upward momentum. Notably, several presidential nominees in the upcoming election have expressed their support for Bitcoin, proposing to make it a strategic reserve asset for the United States. Additionally, Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced a groundbreaking bill to establish a U.S. Bitcoin reserve. This legislation aims to treat Bitcoin like gold or oil, strengthening the country's economy and positioning Bitcoin as a permanent national asset. Such initiatives could legitimize Bitcoin on a national level, potentially triggering a wave of similar actions from other countries.

Monetary Policy Shifts The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in September, a move that historically leads to Bitcoin price pumps. Lower interest rates often result in increased liquidity in the financial system, driving investors to seek alternative stores of value like Bitcoin. Moreover, the global M2 money supply is skyrocketing, indicating a significant increase in the amount of money in circulation. This surge in money supply can lead to inflation, further underscoring the appeal of Bitcoin as a deflationary asset.

Technological Advancements Bitcoin's underlying technology continues to evolve, enhancing its security, efficiency, and scalability. Innovations such as the Lightning Network and Taproot upgrade are making Bitcoin transactions faster and more cost-effective, further cementing its position as a superior financial instrument.

Historical Parabolic Trends in Bitcoin

Bitcoin's history is marked by several parabolic rises, each driven by different factors but sharing common themes of increased adoption and market maturation. The 2017 bull run, fueled by retail investor interest, and the 2020-2021 surge, driven by institutional adoption, provide valuable insights into the current trend. Studying these patterns helps us understand the potential trajectory of Bitcoin's price movement.

Expert Predictions and Analysis

Experts in the field of cryptocurrency are making bold predictions about Bitcoin's future. Influential figures like Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, and Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, have forecasted Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs. Their analyses are based on Bitcoin's scarcity, growing adoption, and its role as digital gold.

Potential Challenges and Risks

While the outlook for Bitcoin is promising, it is essential to acknowledge the potential challenges and risks. Regulatory hurdles, market volatility, and technological vulnerabilities could impact Bitcoin's growth. Investors must remain vigilant and informed to navigate these challenges effectively.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's potential to go parabolic is underpinned by strong institutional support, favorable regulatory developments, and continuous technological advancements. As multiple presidential nominees propose to make Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset and Senator Lummis's groundbreaking bill aims to establish a U.S. Bitcoin reserve, the stage is set for a significant transformation in the financial landscape. With MicroStrategy's aggressive strategy to raise $2 billion for more Bitcoin purchases and the expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the momentum is undeniable. Additionally, the skyrocketing global M2 money supply highlights the growing need for a deflationary asset like Bitcoin. Whether you're an investor, a crypto enthusiast, or a curious observer, staying informed about these developments is crucial as we witness the evolution of Bitcoin.

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[admirer-jerome-powell]

[cambcurrencies]

Forex Market Update: Oil Gains, Currency Movements & Metals

Market Overview: October 24, 2024 This morning, we await data releases. So far, Energy prices are climbing, and metals are showing a mixed picture. Currencies remain steady, with minor movements as traders wait for minor data out later this afternoon. Get a Free Quote Key Data Points Eurozone PMI Flash Estimates (Oct): Manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 45.0, and Services PMI at 51.6. Key for…

[inexable]

Job Numbers: What Do They Really Tell Us?

The recent US jobs report boasts an unexpected surge of 254,000 new jobs as the economy shows resilience contrary to slowdown fears. With unemployment dipping to 4.1% and wage growth at 4%, the data may influence a slight interest rate trim by the Fed soon. But what do these numbers mean long-term? Are we witnessing genuine economic stability or just a fleeting wave buoy'ed by current factors? As we dissect these surprising stats, how do you think they reflect the broader economic landscape? Do these figures significantly impact decision-making processes at the policy level, or are they merely short-term indicators? Share your thoughts!

[rethinking-the-dollar]

A great discussion with Paul Stone on why the Federal Reserve is panicking and why gold smells fear.

[bankacilik-finans-haberleri]

ABD'de Büyük Bankalar için Sermaye Yeterliliği Gerekliliklerinde Değişiklikler ABD'de Banka Sermaye Yeterliliği Planında Değişiklikler Amerika Birleşik Devletleri'nde, Federal Reserve (Fed), Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) ve Office...

[finans-ve-bankacilik-haberleri]

ABD'de Büyük Bankalar için Sermaye Yeterliliği Gerekliliklerinde Değişiklikler ABD'de Banka Sermaye Yeterliliği Planında Değişiklikler Amerika Birleşik Devletleri'nde, Federal Reserve (Fed), Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) ve Office...

[bankacilik-ve-finans-haberleri]

ABD'de Büyük Bankalar için Sermaye Yeterliliği Gerekliliklerinde Değişiklikler ABD'de Banka Sermaye Yeterliliği Planında Değişiklikler Amerika Birleşik Devletleri'nde, Federal Reserve (Fed), Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) ve Office...