#Asymmetric Warfare

[the-garbanzo-annex-jr]

by Seth Mandel

The term “asymmetric warfare” generally refers to the power differential between combatants, but it’s also a good descriptor of the different tactics that state actors and nonstate actors have to use. A state actors generally doesn’t have to worry about a terrorist group marching on its capital, and terrorist groups in turn are not usually vulnerable to the kind of social breakdown caused by their own tactics.

And yet, Israel’s moves against Hezbollah suggest, there are exceptions. Such as when terrorists become sovereign governments.

Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis—the main terrorist organizations at war with Israel—mimic states. They do so even though they govern on behalf of a foreign power: Iran. South Lebanon (many would argue the whole of Lebanon) isn’t a territory dealing with an insurgency; it is Hezbollahland. There is no insurgency. The government has too much control over the population to allow one to develop.

The Houthis control part of Yemen, including the capital Sanaa, in similar fashion. Before the current war, Hamas was the only game in Gaza. These aren’t resistance groups, they are the groups against whom a citizen would resist.

Terrorists sow terror through violence against innocents. But what if you could inject the same chaos by targeting the terrorists—a legal, ethical, and moral inversion of the evil and criminal methods of the terrorists themselves?

That’s what Israel appears to be doing. Iran has overextended itself, and Hezbollah has gotten too big for its britches. You can’t play at this level, Israel seems to be saying to the terrorist army occupying Lebanon. Hezbollah has made itself vulnerable to the weaknesses it has for so long exploited in others.

Suddenly, the citizenry is suspicious of the totalitarian thugs in charge. Don’t get too close to a Hezbollah soldier, his pager could explode at any moment. Stop believing that you’d starve without Hezbollah; those cash vaults underneath the hospital suggest they’ll starve without you. Remember that “generous” loan that you got from Al-Qard Al-Hassan, the “credit bank?” That place is where Hezbollah can use you to unknowingly wash its money for it—money that, if Hezbollah weren’t here siphoning Lebanese resources, might have been yours to begin with.

Meanwhile, that same suspicion can curtail Hezbollah’s recruitment. A lot of people may be having second thoughts about showing up to the job fair where they hand out the pagers. Or you might wonder: Am I talking to a Hezbollah commander or a Mossad agent dressed up like one for Purim?

[algae-x]

When Beren took a Silmaril from Morgoth’s crown, do you supposed he took the middle one or did he take one of the ones to the side just to annoy Morgoth all the more?

[trendynewsnow]

Election Integrity Concerns and Hamas's Tactical Challenges

Representative Scott Perry and the Election Doubts Republican lawmakers sow doubts about the election As the November 5 election approaches, former President Donald Trump is making sweeping claims that the electoral process will be rigged. A small group of his allies, including Representative Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, are already casting doubts on this year’s voting integrity. Perry, who…

[creativemedianews]

Ukraine hopes that their push into Russia influences the fate of the war

[satireinfo]

Hamas Officially Declared a "Cowardly" Organization

[defencecapital]

Aerospace Power: Pivot to future battlespace operations

By Air Chief Marshal V. R. Chaudhari The foremost lesson that can be drawn from the twentieth century and indeed the early twenty-first century is that no war can be successfully prosecuted without aerospace power and in the words of Field Marshal Montgomery, ‘If we lose the war in the air, we lose the war and lose it quickly’. There are a few very pertinent words, which need a bit more study.…

[jovialbasementbouquetblr]

2022: Taiwan Chief of Staff's "How Taiwan Can Win"

Visiting my wife’s family in Nantou County, Taiwan, I’ve noticed much favorable discussion of Admiral Lee Hsi-ming’s book 《臺灣的勝算》 “How Taiwan Can Win”. Apparently an English translation is in the works. Some links added (Google Translates of original Chinese language links and English language versions of two official Taiwan defense reports) as with as an interlude with additional information…

[kindlingkeen]

Jason from the perspective of people who only know him as an acquaintance is so good. He is definitely one of those people who you somehow just know has had something really really bad happen to them. Everyone knows there is something there and no one asks because it wont help anything to have specifics. The clerk at the corner store gets offended on Jason’s behalf when another patron whispers about how scary he is because that guy always holds the door for people and empties his pockets of change in the leave a penny tray. One night he crashes through a rooftop garden and comes back later to leave a note saying sorry along with a hidden envelope of cash to make up for it. When he stops back to check two ladies have waited up to give him zucchini bread and they know by his reaction that he isn’t used to little unexpected kindnesses.

Yes, 100x yes.

I love Jason through outsider eyes. Because when you take away the lens of trauma and assumption and bias his family views him through, you see the person he is underneath so much more clearly. And, sure, Jason might be a bit of an asshole, but he is also a fundamentally good person. He has a heart of gold and life has taught him to protect it with angry words and weaponry.

Anon, I love your outsider & Jason snippets so much. In fact, you may see some variation of these end up in Asymmetrical Warfare (if you want your tumblr or ao3 handle credited vs an anon reference, just drop me another ask, I don’t have to publish it on my blog if you don’t want).

Thanks so much for this ask, anon. It really made me smile. 💙

[religion-is-a-mental-illness]

Why would a battle fought 54 years ago provide key insight on what Hamas' strategy is today?

Asymmetric Warfare. It's a term that most people don't really understand. Before I did this, I was a United States Army Green Beret and I did a couple of combat tours in Iraq. And needless to say, asymmetric warfare was kind of our thing.

So, in practical terms, it is a type of war between belligerents whose relative military power, strategy or tactics differ significantly. And as a result of this, the weaker opponent will use unconventional tactics in order to maximize one's strengths against a stronger opponent's weaknesses or vulnerabilities.

For instance, an Insurgent force does not have the freedom of movement or firepower necessary to attack a forward operating base or a heavily armed column. So instead, they focus on softer logistical targets. They may choose to use a remotely activated roadside bomb instead of engaging in direct fire.

In many situations, the weaker adversary has fewer personnel and resources. And so, a significant part of their strategy is to preserve those limited resources and use the munitions that they have to the greatest possible advantage.

But here's the thing. To pull this off long term, you generally need a consistent means of supply combined with enough territory to hit, run and then hide. And Hamas doesn't have these things, at least not in sufficient supply to win against the IDF.

So, what's their strategy? What can Hamas leverage that will allow them to conduct offensive operations against a much stronger opponent and then avoid getting destroyed by the IDF's vastly superior military capability?

And the answer to that question as horrific, as it is, is civilian casualties, but probably not the ones you're thinking.

To understand this, let's discuss that example 54 years ago. The Tet Offensive in the Vietnam War virtually wiped out the Viet Kong. It was by every objective measure, a complete tactical failure. But strategically, it was invaluable. Because while achieving none of its military objectives, the Tet Offensive shattered Americans' perspective on the situation on the ground.

Opponents of the war were able to effectively use the offensive as a demonstration of the futility of American involvement. Hollywood, Academia and many in the mainstream media went to work convincing the American people that the war couldn't be won. Or perhaps just shouldn't even be fought. And in a representative government, when the electorate decides that a war is lost, it is, regardless of the situation on the ground.

Now, understand something. I'm not making an argument for the pros or cons of fighting the Vietnam War. I'm merely illustrating a point about modern Asymmetric Warfare. The lesson of the Tet Offensive is when fighting the West, you don't defeat their military. You win their electorate. And the way to do that is through the institutions which shape culture in the West, namely Hollywood, the Media and Academia.

If Hamas had decided to engage in a conventional military attack directed at only legitimate military targets, the IDF would have effectively destroyed their war fighting capability within days, and Hamas knows it. So, they engaged in asymmetric strategy.

Once we understand this, their actions on October 7th, as horrific as they are, begin to make more sense. Hamas didn't just target civilians because they were easy targets or because they despise Jews, although both of those things are true. The attack and the subsequent taking of hostages was actually designed to elicit a major response from the IDF.

But why? Well, maybe it's because to achieve their strategic objectives, Hamas needs civilian casualties. And more specifically they need Palestinian civilian casualties. And this is why.

The two entities in this conflict that lose the most from a greater peace agreement in the Middle East are Iran and the terrorist organizations they support. Upsetting this process requires much more than the random launching of rockets into Israel or strikes against legitimate military targets. The IDF is more than capable of handling such incursions, and the Israeli people have become all too accustomed to weathering such attacks without demanding an overwhelming military response. something more significant was required.

And October 7th created the kind of conditions that demanded a significant and sustained response. They needed something so obscene that Israel would have no choice but to hit back hard.

And this is where the second component of Hamas' strategy plays out. How to get Palestinian casualties. Any government actually worried about civilian casualties dedicates resources to evacuating their own civilians from hostile areas and attempts to separate the civilian population from legitimate military targets. So what conclusion should we come to when a governing body decides to do the exact opposite?

In this asymmetric environment, Hamas is not only incentivized to kill Israeli civilians, they're incentivized to maximize their own civilian casualties in the short run in order to elicit Western intervention on their behalf. As easy as it might be to explain Hamas's strategy away as nothing but mindless bloodlust, it is actually more sinister than that.

Hamas is responding to the incentive structures certain elements within the West have created. Hamas understand that the real Battlefield is not in Gaza but in the streets, University halls and newsrooms of the West. And so that is their target. And while a ceasefire seems like a humanitarian response to the tragic death of civilians, leaving Hamas intact as an operational and governing body will ultimately just reinforce that the perverse incentive structure remains the same.

And that while the West may claim to "not negotiate with terrorists," they always seem to force Israel to as soon as it becomes politically inconvenient for them.

So here's the hard reality. If you actually want to achieve anything resembling a lasting peace in this part of the world, you're never going to achieve it by creating conditions where terrorists are incentivized to hurt both the civilians of their enemies, and their own in order to achieve their political objectives.

==

This, of course, was completely obvious from the moment of the al-Ahli Hospital hoax, where Western outlets worked overtime to spread Hamas propaganda without regard for truth, all the way through to the present-day "protests" which are anything but organic or grass-roots.

[femwizard]

I feel like there is something I must scream into the void. This is prolly not the most educated way to put together this take & I wouldn’t b surprised if it is subconsciously tied to some fucked up propaganda my country has subjected me too. In that vein I try not to directly consume mainstream news outlets. I keep a vague eye on the reporting from the intercept, and gather a lot from what my friends and mutuals post, but all that said I generally have my head under a rock. I lot of people are talking shit about Israel rn (with good reason) & other than the colonialism, ethnic cleansing, and overt cruelty that has been playing out for,,,,the past couple years? Decades? Since the end of the Second World War? I’m not exactly clear on what has Israel on everyone’s mind rn. It’s fucked up. It’s settler colonialism and it’s directly backed by the US government. Unfortunately the US also has a big hand in colonial projects all across the global south, with especially large effect in South America & east Asia. Who’s talking about the Philippines rn? What about Venezuela? The list goes on. It feels daunting and it’s important to have a focus on something in the face of everything and I’m glad people are crying out against the violence faced by the Palestinian people. It just feels like a very Eurocentric conflict, that feels comfortable for a lot of people to weigh in on due to the accessibility of Judaism and the largely white face of Jewish people in the states. Basically my thesis is don’t forget this is a global issue, and the most effective thing you can do is build local community to make your own life materially better.

[kindlingkeen]

This is Guerrilla Tactics to a t. And pretty much every other WIP I have going for Asymmetrical Warfare right now. Sigh. 🙄

source

[midnightactual]

something that goes underappreciated in shōnen contexts is that power isn't everything

to guide your thinking on this: why don't soldiers, sailors, marines, airmen, guardians, etc., look like Dwayne Johnson? well, because that's not their job. warfighters, and emergency response personnel more generally, build for endurance, not peak strength, because they need to be able to handle prolonged tactical and strategic situations, as part of a larger response apparatus. there is little to no point in training physically to be The Strongest™ if you can't sustain it

(and in real life a gun would kill Dwayne Johnson just as dead as it would Milton Waddams, so a strong physique isn't unto itself a strong survival adaptation for combat)

so, when you tune your thinking on things like this, shōnen manga situations are the ultimate in freakishness, because the setup is you inevitably have one bad guy who is super strong or has broken abilities, and so you have to raise your own local pet science project freak to beat them. it's not a generalist situation, it's a very niche one. but neither of those two freaks are actually optimal for combat or really built for most general-purpose scenarios—they're just black swan events. a Thing That Should Not Be is running amok, and so you create another Thing That Should Not Be to stop them. that's what Ichigo is, for example

Ichigo has a lot of experience by the end, but his experience is janky, his training is garbage, and his mentality is garbage: he's just raw power, and that's it. it's like giving Dwayne Johnson a minigun. yeah, maybe he can wield it whereas a normal person can't, and maybe even move and fire with it, but that doesn't actually make him more impressive than a given Navy SEAL. it just looks flashy

so, if you are the equivalent of a Navy SEAL, of course you're going to resent this Captain America wannabe coming in and doing brash, stupid things, and getting away with it because of a bunch of science hacks that made him overpowered

(to give another example: this also explains the early Halo canon of ODSTs hating SPARTANs. the SPARTANs did have grueling training, not just science hacks, but it's reasonable for the ODSTs not to know that. where it would become obvious is in actual combat) so, Yoruichi disliking Kisuke's science projects, and all the various enhancement ideas of Bleach scientists generally (such as Hollowfication) is I think quite rational and reasonable. they're cheating the system, and producing meatheads who only know how to brute force situations. there is no technique and nuance, but more importantly there is no grit (compare Rocky IV, Rocky Balboa vs. Ivan Drago)

we see this with Aizen, who at the end of the fight in Karakura is attributing everything to the Hōgyoku rather than himself and throws a temper-tantrum at being outsmarted; and with Ichigo, who never internalizes an ability to persist in the face of despair without motivation from Rukia. neither has any grit, because neither is actually a fighter, and neither is actually really in tune with themselves physically, mentally, psychologically, or spiritually. they're just lab experiments

[amereid1960]

تأثير الحروب اللاتماثلية على مستقبل نظرية الأمن الإسرائيلي - دراسة حالة حرب يوليو 2006

تأثير الحروب اللاتماثلية على مستقبل نظرية الأمن الإسرائيلي – دراسة حالة حرب يوليو 2006   تأثير الحروب اللاتماثلية على مستقبل نظرية الأمن الإسرائيلي – دراسة حالة حرب يوليو 2006 الكاتب : إسماعيل زروقة الملخص: إن حرب يوليو 2006 جرت في وضع دولي مختلف تماما، جعلها تتميز عن الحروب الأخرى، فهي أول حرب تخوضها إسرائيل بعد نهاية الحرب الباردة، وانهيار القطبية الثنائية، وبروز الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية كقوة…

[kindlingkeen]

Jason sees the batarang coming & manoeuvres the situation to his advantage. (Does he change positions so it kills the joker? Something else? Who knows!)

he’s been trained by Batman himself, I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility he’d be able to read Batman well enough to see the hit coming (although iirc it did bounce off a pipe. So. Maybe that’s harder to predict)

Does he change positions so it kills the joker? 👀 Yeeesssss

[art-for-a-reason]

Holy smokes this is such a beautiful "fuck you" to the purveyors of casual corporate greed. I think he should do a Kickstarter next for a modern retelling of Robin Hood. Brb need to go read Fables. What a mensch.

HOLY SHIT WHAT???

[alewaanewspaper1960]

تأثير الحروب اللاتماثلية على مستقبل نظرية الأمن الإسرائيلي - دراسة حالة حرب يوليو 2006

تأثير الحروب اللاتماثلية على مستقبل نظرية الأمن الإسرائيلي – دراسة حالة حرب يوليو 2006   تأثير الحروب اللاتماثلية على مستقبل نظرية الأمن الإسرائيلي – دراسة حالة حرب يوليو 2006 الكاتب : إسماعيل زروقة الملخص: إن حرب يوليو 2006 جرت في وضع دولي مختلف تماما، جعلها تتميز عن الحروب الأخرى، فهي أول حرب تخوضها إسرائيل بعد نهاية الحرب الباردة، وانهيار القطبية الثنائية، وبروز الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية كقوة…