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bookatans · 3 months ago

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This is probably going to be a very long post but the more I think about the rise (and subsequent fall) of the New Mandalorians, the more that I get wrapped up in not only the colonialism committed by Satine and the movement, how it began in such a horrifyingly understated way, but also how it paved the way for Mandalore to be destroyed thanks to the almost-complete erasure of their culture.

First of all, Canon verse deciding to remove the True Mandalorians (and placing the "Old" Mandalorians in a similar, though less prominent position) feels particularly underhanded and paints everything in a black and white manner. Satine: a sympathetic character who is the only one standing against Death Watch, the last shred of peace left for Mandalorians to cling to. Which. Last standing? Yes, definitely. But not the only one.

A war where Death Watch and the New Mandalorians were the major players, only to have Death Watch defeated – even with the assistance of the Jedi keeping Satine alive – makes little sense from a technical standpoint. Is it impossible? Probably not. All sorts of things can happen in history, pure dumb luck makes every difference, but it's unlikely. A party which seeks peace is not going to survive against another ultra violent, volatile party that's pissed off at you because you want to erase the culture that they so deeply value.

Which, yeah I don't buy it. Even with the Republic stepping in later on, it's fishy. But for the sake of my sanity, I'm mostly focusing on Legends, because the more you try to create a coherent timeline (seriously, how is Clone Batch Math easier than this?) for the Mandalorian Civil Wars, the harder it is not to give up entirely.

Anyways. Satine did not survive years of conflict due to mere smarts and perseverance, and did not end the war by being charismatic and having good people skills. She was the LEAST THREATENING PARTY in a three-party war, hunkering down with her Jedi protectors and playing politician while the actual warriors in the conflict weakened one another and – for the True Mandalorians – were wiped out.

True Mandalorians. Death Watch. New Mandalorians.

So, okay. The approximate dates of the beginning and end of the Mandalorian Civil Wars don't necessarily make sense with Satine’s age. She'd have been slightly younger, and Canon seems to have a tendency to just wave their hand in the general direction of a time period and deflect onto another topic.

Which, you know what? Fine. I can work with that without having to think too hard about the dates. It kills me not to delve into it further, but. No. It's not like Disney's gonna pay me to fix their broken timeline.

(But if I had to, I'd shift Jaster's death to 47BBY instead of 52BBY, and push the Battle of Galidraan a year back to 43BBY, and—)

Here's what's important to remember, though:

- There are two Mandalorian Civil Wars. The first being True Mandalorians vs Death Watch. The second being the much shorter, and quickly solved Death Watch vs the New Mandalorians.

- The massacre of the True Mandalorians happened shortly before the beginning of the second civil war.

- The True Mandalorians had already been dealing with Death Watch for years, and they were winning. Death Watch wasn't just on the run, they were weak, they had to resort to TRICKING THE JEDI into killing the True Mandalorians for them.

Who wasn't weak? The New Mandalorians, the people that actively choose to turn their back on a culture that had survived for centuries. And yes, Death Watch remained even after the True Mandalorians fell. Tor Vizsla targeted Satine and the New Mandalorians viciously after that, there was even more destruction, but it wasn't with the severity with which he'd prosecuted the True Mandalorians.

Here's what happened next: Jango Fett escaped his enslavement. He hunted down Tor Vizsla, and he killed him. Whatever strength Death Watch had regained in those few years didn't matter, because the second their leader was gone they were certainly left unorganized and at a disadvantage.

Giving the New Mandalorians the opening they needed to cement in people's minds to their beliefs and convince the House and Clan leaders that abandoning their old ways was the solution. After all, how much more of Mandalore was left to destroy? How many more had to be lost?

With the public's approval and the Republic’s help, Satine Kryze and the New Mandalorians scavenged the corpse of Mandalore, and they took what they deemed fit, left the rest to rot and – given time – be erased completely.

What's worse is that Satine's activism and speeches made it sound like that made sense (because, to Satine, it did make sense); abandon what Mandalore once was because that's the reason we've been destroyed, isn't it? (Not entirely untrue.) And these people, whose world had been ravaged, who's clans and families had wrecked everything with in-fighting, were tired and desperate enough that they listened.

Actually, here's what's really worse — Satine got LUCKY! The first time! It should not have ended like that. But because she got lucky, because it worked once, she tried to do the exact same thing when the entire galaxy went to war. And she ignored the suffering of people whom she should have known empathy towards, who were going through the very same torment she experienced as a child. Because her position of superiority where peace is the only answer was so ingrained in her beliefs, because she was ARROGANT.

And because peace was the only answer, because she'd disavowed any sense of warrior culture from her people, Satine had as much a hand in dooming Mandalore as everyone who went in with the worst intentions. Does it matter that it was doomed regardless, because Maul was the great evil that came to destroy them? No. Maul was just the most convenient means to an end the resurrected Death Watch could find, but if not him it would have been anyone — anything – else.

I do feel for her. She had to experience her father's death so young and step into a role he'd left behind, didn't get a proper chance to grieve because she had to be strong for everyone else who was grieving. She gave up the possibility of love for duty. Satine was a good leader, I won't argue that, and she was the last stand between Mandalore and total annihilation, but she was also deeply flawed.

#narrator: and it was in fact a very long post #the star wars brainrot won't let me rest so im forcing people to percieve my takes #i love mandalore and it's complex history so much but i do not love all of the decisions taken by some people #i am not trying to hate on satine so don't come for me but looking at it from far away its just. really clear to me #the new mandalorians winning was dumb luck + the republic wanting a new puppet #star wars #true mandalorians #death watch #eza.txt #also looking too closely at these dates made me realize that my age hc for bo katan would make her 3 during the second civil war. oops #a thirteen year age difference between siblings isn't impossible though and it would also explain why bo was so strongly death watch #if you didn't personally experience it you wouldn't be able to see why you maybe shouldn't join the evil mando group!#satine kryze critical #sorry forgot people get angy too easily on this website lmao

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accirax · 3 months ago

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Disventure Camp Season 4 Pre-Season Analysis

Welcome back, campers! Now that we've fully spun off the end of DCAS, another season has rolled into town. And, in my opinion, it's looking really great so far!

As with any series of predictions, it's sort of a fool's game to try to predict entire-season arcs and characterizations when all we have are a couple of minute-long intros and a singular trailer. Still, I wanted to share what I've observed so far, as well as analyzing what was happening in that chaotic trailer before the first episode comes out-- for us non-Patreon normies, at least.

SPOILERS for the prior 3 Disventure Camp seasons, as well as possibly this one if I'm right in my analysis. You've been warned? Here we go!

The Profile Rigs

When I originally watched the 18 individual character intros, I was watching very closely for one thing-- the profile rigs. When Anastasia's trailer dropped, everyone was quick to notice the spicy new front-facing and side profile rigs the characters seemed to be sporting. However, come Hannah's interview, suddenly, her profile rig was nowhere to be seen. Did that mean it didn't exist?

Slowly but surely, the trailers were released, and six characters were left without profile rigs-- Hannah, Benji, Lynda, Spencer, Jade, and Diego. Would these be six pre-merge boots with no shot at returning for the latter half of the season?

... And then the actual trailer dropped and Lynda, Jade, and Diego were revealed to have profile rigs as well. It's possible the other three have them as well; I didn't scrub closely enough to 100% confirm that they didn't. And that's why I waited until all of the character trailers were out to make my theories! Saved myself a lot of work by letting my theories get disproven before I write them 😎 But, for anyone else who was thinking along those lines, know that line of logic is essentially debunked.

Haha. About that. While I anticipated that there might be a trailer after the audition tapes finished, I certainly wasn't expecting there to be an Episode 1 trailer AFTER the main series trailer. Therefore, I wrote part of this post before watching the Episode 1 trailer. There honestly isn't a whole much in it other than some further character work (which is great) but in terms of challenges and stuff it doesn't change much of what I wrote. In the event that it does, I'll be adding further thoughts like this, in pink text.

Episode Count

Let me preface this by saying that, along with not being a member of the Patreon, I also don't follow Jared or Robert on Twitter, nor am I a member of any Disventure Camp Discord servers, official or otherwise. (And yet, I still take the time to write out this entire post. Such is my personality.) Therefore, it's possible that I could be missing out on something that's been confirmed or de-confirmed along the way.

That being said, I know from DC4's original announcement that this season has been stated to be 26 episodes long. That's two episodes longer than All Stars, our previous 18-person example. A standard 18-person season with no bells and whistles would need a total of 16 episodes to eliminate 15 people one-at-a-time, with a one part finale. That boosts up to 17 episodes if you assume a two-part finale, which I am at this point. However, that still leaves us 9 episodes short from our episode count this season. What does that mean?

Well, for starters, I'm going to assume that the first episode is an introductory, non-elimination one. Whether that's in the S1 tribe swap sense, the AS interview into tribe reveal sense, or an entirely new sense altogether, I don't know. But, even the description of the first episode on the wiki seems to support that the first episode will just be about introducing the contestants (as does the apparent lack of challenge/tribal footage in the Episode 1 trailer), so I'm fairly confident that can lock us in for at least 18 episodes.

For the other 8 episodes, I think we can predict a combination of:

Hidden Tribe Swaps: This is describing the thing that happened to Grett and Ellie in S1, where they thought they were being eliminated but instead they swapped tribes. I feel like I remember people being disappointed that nothing like this ever happened in All Stars, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it make a comeback in S4. Any instance of this occurring would add an additional +1 episodes to the season, because although it "saves" two people from elimination, given that the standard rate of elimination is 1 person/episode, we only actually prevented one person's elimination. Therefore, if this were the only solution, we could have 8 whole tribe swaps. I really hope that doesn't happen.

Comeback Challenges: You all know what this means. Someone is eliminated from the competition, but they get to come back through some sort of redemptive challenge! Based on the length of the season, I'm almost certain that this will be included. It grants you a whole +2 episodes every time it happens, because not only do you cancel one episode's elimination, but you add another player who will need to be eliminated again. If this happened, for instance, once at the midpoint and once near the Final 5-- mirroring the comeback systems of shows like Top Chef or Survivor in its seasons with the Edge of Extinction-- that could already book us for half of our extra episodes this season. Also, I want to point out that we know from the original DCAS boot order list's third version that ONC was once planning to have a comeback challenge in which two eliminated contestants came back at once. (Maybe the original plan was that eliminated contestants would work together, instead of being paired with a current player.) That also opens the door to the idea of two players coming back via one challenge, each instance of which would be +3 episodes.

Non-Elim Cliffhangers/Two Parters: This, to my memory, has not yet happened in Disventure Camp outside of a finale, but I think it's still possible. This refers to any episode that doesn't end on an elimination ceremony, but instead on some other twist or revelation-- Survivor's infamous hourglass twist did this in Season 41 and 42. If this was to occur, I hope that the ending-worthy cliffhangers would be more along the lines of a big strategic decision and less "OMG A is about to tell B that they like them!!!" However, given something we see in the trailer (which I'll get to in a minute), I'm inclined to think that this happening would be more advantage based and less love triangle based. But we'll see. And, obviously, each time this happened would grant us +1 episode.

Non-Competition Episodes: Namely, the Loser's Motel episode. Or, alternatively, if we spent an entire episode focused on the staff, or Jensen, or prior competitors or whatever. (I do not want it to be that alternative possibility.) Instances of this would likely be very limited, but they could still be used to absorb +1 episode or two a couple of times throughout the season. There are enough "missing" episodes that I wouldn't be surprised if each of these things happened at least once.

The Trailer

Finally, time for some actual, direct content analysis! I think it'll work best if I divide this into sub-headers. Before that, though, I want to point out that I'd imagine that anything depicted in this trailer is probably from, like, Episode 4 at the latest. That's not just because of not wanting to spoil what happens too late into the season, but also because I just don't think they'd have animation for any farther than that complete at this stage.

The Setting

It's a circus. With clowns. Yeah that's pretty obvious. I'm just putting this here because most of the opening trailer shots (of the season trailer and the Episode 1 trailer) seem to be communicating this fact and this fact alone.

The Teams

I swear there was an official image delineating the teams somewhere, but I can't find it. No matter, it should be pretty easy to determine who's on which team based on this trailer anyways.

There are many images in the trailer that support these being the teams, but this is the only one where everyone is on screen at once. Therefore, it's a given that the Ice Team is comprised of Logan, Ted, Marissa, Anastasia, Natalia, Isabel, Lynda, Richard, and Alessio, while the Fire Team is comprised of Zaid, Hannah, Tristan, Ivy, Jade, Benji, Amelie, Spencer, and Diego.

This will be important to keep in mind, as tribe draw is a crucial factor in determining whether you'll find allies in the early days, or if you'll wind up on a tribe you don't mesh with and be kicked out for it. For instance, the Fire Team seems to have a lot of younger players on it, which means that Amelie, the only player in her mid-30s, could initially be on the outs and struggle to find allies. Doesn't mean she's totally screwed, but leanings are all we really have right now.

The Challenges

Based on the trailer, I think I can confidently say that we've been shown three different challenges thus far.

The first is this "fighting with sticks in swimsuits" challenge, which happened in both S1 and S2, if I remember correctly. The weird thing here is that they don't actually seem to be near a body of water, but what do I know?

Based on the crowd, we can see that everyone is present at this challenge, which means it must happen pretty early in the season-- probably either the first immunity or reward competition. I'm going to wager that we didn't get enough footage to definitively decide which team wins, so I'm not even going to try to determine that.

The next is what I can only describe as a "hunting clowns" challenge. Not sure if it's a "last clown standing without being shot wins" or a "the most points scored on the clowns at the end of the challenge wins," but it's likely one of those. The only characters we're able to definitively place in this challenge are Marissa, Isabel, and Natalia (all as archers) and Hannah, Diego, Benji, and Spencer (with the former as archers and the latter as clowns). ONC was a lot cagier with who was shown in this challenge, which would make me think that it' might take place after the first elimination. If true, that would make all of these characters safe from being the first boot of their tribe.

This challenge is even cagier that the last, as the only way to piece together that they are likely part of the same challenge is by noticing that they all take place in this train-looking location.

I have no idea what happens in this challenge. We've got chickens, math, ice baths, worms, and getting your head shaved. I'd think that this might be a repeat of the "face your fears" challenge from S1, but chickens for the tour guide and math for the marine science student feel a little out of place for that. Also, why would Richard's fear be going bald if he basically already is bald? It's probably something else, but I have no clue what.

Anyways, we can see Diego, Jade, Ted, Ivy, and Richard in this challenge, with a bonus Logan, Anastasia, and Spencer as they can all be seen on the train in these scenes.

Other than that, there are a couple of screenshots that I think could be challenges, but likely aren't.

Between the log and the booth (both showing opposite teams), I at first thought there might be some sort of heavy lifting challenge in the works. However, both scenes look like they take place in a more camp-like setting, so I think these are probably just taken from scenes of each team arranging the camp. The last one would also match with that, as Ivy holding up a decorate posted while Zaid might be dusting or adjusting some lights. The trio looks a bit too calm for a challenge in that last screenshot, anyways.

Then there are these, which are a bit more confusing.

We've got Spencer rearranging some flags, and Jade taking a swim... in her normal clothes? Both of these could be challenge-related, but they also could be more scenes of daily life around camp. Spencer's could truly go either way, as rearranging the flags could be more housekeeping work or it could be some sort of puzzle. I'd be inclined to say that Jade's was part of a challenge, except them it seems like she would be in her swimsuit...?

In the Episode 1 trailer, we see Spencer collecting similar flags from the other members of his team (with several of them looking displeased).

That definitely places this scene in Episode 1, and, based on their stances, probably not in a challenge? But, also, I don't know what this would mean outside of a challenge. Perhaps it's not a team vs team event, but something more like the Sweat vs Savvy challenges that have been seen in recent Survivor seasons? In them, contestants have to choose between attempting a grueling but fairly reliable test of athleticism or a quick but unpredictable test of intelligence in order to earn flint for their tribe. I could see that the Fire Team might have wound up doing the intelligence (Savvy) task, which Spencer fully takes over-- possibly to win or lose it. However, there are a few flaws with this. First of all, Disventure Camp contestants don't need flint, so I don't know what they would be competing for. Secondly, there doesn't appear to be any corresponding footage of the Ice Team competing in any challenge...? Therefore, I'm not sure how Fire would wind up in this disadvantageous position, where Ice neither had to win a different challenge nor compete in their own Sweat vs Savvy task. So, maybe it's just about camp decor? I'm excited to see what these flags are about on the 30th.

Between the hunting clowns challenge and the train challenge, we've had confirmed appearances from Marissa, Isabel, Natalia, Ted, Richard, Logan, Anastasia, Hannah, Diego (in both), Benji, Spencer (in both), Jade, and Ivy. If I'm correct that these are immunity challenges two and three (in either order), that could spell trouble for Lynda or Alessio on Ice and Tristan, Zaid, or Amelie on Fire. Again, because we don't know which challenge will occur first (or even that they're guaranteed to be immunity challenges), none of the people pictured are guaranteed safe. However, especially for Spencer and Diego, I feel confident that they won't be the earliest of early boots.

Also, I wasn't sure where else to put this, but, hey, it's that thing I said we'd get to later. This sign-- which reads "Go down the path together to a private booth; you're both about to make a major decision" is giving BIG Journey energy. If you don't know what a Journey is, in the new era of Survivor, they've started having points at which (typically) one player from each tribe goes off to an island together, they get to chat for a little bit, and then they play sort of game (whether against each other or against chance) where they either win something (typically some sort of advantage) or lose something (typically their vote).

The interesting thing here is that this scene is decisively set at night, which, in Disventure Camp, is often reserved only for Tribal Councils. That being said, we already have footage of a challenge happening at night (hunting clowns), so this could be part of a challenge or on a non-Tribal night instead. No idea who will be part of this Major Decision Pair together, but it's neat that they're bringing in even more strategic Survivor aspects into this new season. I love strategy!

The Tribal Councils

Just pointing out that we have footage of both tribes going to Tribal council, at which I would have to imagine that everyone is present. (Why would ONC show footage of a Tribal at which not everyone is present if that necessitates that said tribe already went to a Tribal Council at which everyone was present???) Not much to say here, just that it seems very likely that both Tribes will go to Tribal a minimum of one time in the first 3-or-so rounds of the competition. My money is on the first two Tribals being one per team.

The Relationships

Given Tumblr's image limitations (and also the limitations of the time I want to spend writing this post), I'm not going to go over every time two characters are shown on screen together. Given that, I am necessarily being biased in portraying which trailer relationships I think might be important. It could be that I'm blowing something small out of proportion, or ignoring something important because I think it's more circumstantial.

Oh, and, also, just because this is the "relationships" section doesn't mean that I think all of these relationships will be romantic in nature. Friendships and other platonic relationships totally qualify as well! That being said, Disventure Camp's gonna Disventure Camp, so I wouldn't be surprised if several of these relationships are romantic in nature.

Speaking of toss-ups, Hannah and Benji! This is the pairing that I most fear I might be blowing out of proportion the most. But, when I saw this shot in the trailer, I immediately thought, "oh, I guess they're gonna be a couple!" We know from Hannah's intro that she's bi, which means that she has the capacity to be attracted to Benji.

I hadn't thought of these two as a pair before because I thought Benji would be eliminated early, but I think they could be really cute! I could see Benji's silly vibes making Hannah laugh, and Hannah's social skills covering up for some of Benji's awkwardness. Even if the relationship is short due to Benji getting eliminated early, I hope we get to see a lot of this dynamic!

As opposed to the other two, Ivy and Zaid seem to be shown together a lot in this trailer. Another pairing that I did not expect, but that I'm open to! They seem like they're having fun with each other. Sort of predicting romantic on this one as well, but it could totally be a friendship. Either way, an alliance seems inevitable.

Spencer and Diego definitely seem to have some sort of bond, as everyone predicted from the poster alone. Many people have also, I believe, already begun to ship them. I went on the record a few weeks ago as saying that I thought that Logan and Spencer would be the ship of the season, but with their being on different teams, I can't deny that spenciego(?) might win out in the end.

Of course, these two could also just be friends, and Spencer could wind up with Logan, or no one at all. Or, imagine if there was a love triangle with Spencer of all people being the main target of affection. Would that be wild or what? No matter what, I'm a fan of "opposites attract" dynamics (romantic or platonic) so I'll be happy if these two do wind up being a pair!

In the same post in which I predicted logancer(?) true canon, I also predicted that Richard would befriend Logan, which seems to be the case. I mean, c'mon. A gay basketball coach father figure and a probably-gay swimmer with a probably-not-great relationship with his parents feel like they were made for each other. And, given that these are fictional characters and not real people, they probably literally were...!

Don't have much more to say about these two because their dynamic already feels really familiar. They even both have their first initial on their shirt. They will be besties, for however long both are in the game.

Those are all of the main dynamics I got out of watching the trailer, but I did want to highlight a couple more that struck my interest.

Isabel + Natalia

Could just be a coincidence, but I felt like Isabel and Natalia were pictured together a lot in the trailer. And that's so cool. Again, a relationship I totally didn't see coming, but that I would love to see play out throughout the season if that's ONC's plan.

A lot of people in the comments of Isabel's audition tape were expressing the fear that Isabel would be one of the main villains of the season, and while (as an agnostic person) I don't have any particular dog in that fight, I do think it would cool to have the nun become besties with the trans woman. Show a little example of what Christian people should be doing, eh? They seem like they could balance each other out well, in another "opposites attract" kind of way.

Anastasia + Logan

These two have a very clear scene together in the trailer, with Anastasia yelling at Logan (on the train). This could be more of an established dynamic, but I could also see it being more circumstantial, with Logan, like, messing something up in that challenge or whatever. I could see them being a pair as a sort of prep girl x jock boy kind of thing? Not sure, but I'm noting it for posterity.

Lynda + Everyone

Seemingly, everyone wants to talk to Lynda. We have Marissa shaking her hand, Ted pulling her into a bush, and even Emily spying on her spying. It's interesting in the context of her saying that "she'll be the one pulling the strings." Aren't people like that supposed to be more... under the radar?

Still, it's probably a good sign for her, at least in the short term, to have so many people wanting to talk to her. I couldn't really pick one of these instances that seems more important than the others, so down here it goes.

Character Thoughts/Predictions

The only thing I really have left to do is run through the characters themselves and provide individual thoughts on how far I think they'll make it based on (mostly) their audition tapes). I'll try to keep each individual character's part fairly short and sweet, because... well, this post is long enough as is.

I'll go in order of the audition tapes' publication because why not. And I'll now feature the last names, so that I can try to internalize them before I presumably start tagging them all the time when I make my posts!

Anastasia Sizova

This girl has a name that's really similar to someone I went to college with. It's very distracting.

Distractions aside, I've seen people predict that Lynda, Amelie, or Isabel would be the main antagonist of the season, but honestly, I kind of get those vibes from Anastasia. She's not as obviously ~evil~ as the former two, which I think could help her make it deeper into the competition. Plus, with her not revealing why she moved to Australia, as well as having a stated goal outside of winning Disventure Camp, Anastasia feels pretty fleshed out. She's got secrets to share later down the line-- although, not necessarily as a villain like I predicted.

I definitely get late game vibes from her, and I think she'd at least make the merge. However, I don't think that Ice is a great tribe draw for her, as I don't see any clear allies for her there. Is "eliminated early, but returns via unannounced comeback challenge to slay" way too specific of a prediction? Yeah, definitely. So, I'll just stick with "late game and I like her" for now.

Ted Gordon

Many people have claimed that Ted has first boot energy, which I... sort of disagree with? Back at the time of Hannah's tape, at which point I was thinking that anyone with a profile rig would be making it decently far into the game, I could very easily see a future in which Ted made it deep into the game. Whether it was Ted actually delivering on the strategy he promised, or others finding his rough edges endearing, I could see him making it decently far into the game.

However, watching it back, I can also see why Ted would be a first boot. He's got a fairly abrasive personality, and his overconfidence could easily lead to overplaying. Personally, I see more of a mid-game exit from him, with maybe a slight bias for pre-merge as opposed to post merge. Let's hope the train can save him from an embarrassing early exit.

Hannah Roxas

Similarly-but-opposite to Ted, despite initially predicting that Hannah might win the entire season (very early, with only the Casting Call Club info), when I thought she was destined for pre-merge, I could easily see Hannah going out pre-merge. Her not knowing anything about Disventure Camp could easily lead to her being outplayed, and her revealing she's bi in her interview felt like something that ONC wanted the audience to know, but didn't have the time to explore in the series proper.

The trailers, however, started changing my mind back. Now, Hannah has something in the works with Benji, and seems to often be annoyed at Spencer. If the two of them are fighting, it could mean one of them is out of the game soon. Or, it could be DC's classic bickering duo and they could both totally make it far. I could definitely see Hannah as an Ashley-like "fuck all y'all villains"-type character, where her lack of knowledge of the game leads to her condemning those who are more into strategy than friendship.

Overall, I guess I'd place Hannah as a mid-gamer, more likely post-merge than pre-merge. But also, I think that early premerger is her cap-- I don't see her making it super late game.

Logan Bell

I remember who his voice reminds me of! It's Brett Hand from Inside Job. I love Inside Job...

In my mind, Logan has an easy ticket to the merge. As established, he has a clear ally in Richard, and his Olympic-level athleticism will surely make him a critical player for his team to keep around if they want to be winning challenges. However, athleticism is always a double-edged sword, as physical prowess can also make you a target once it's every man for himself.

I see like a final 7 or 8 placement for him? Little bit further if he does have the aforementioned romance plot with Spencer? He'll be #1 in everyone's rankings of their favorite himbo. Of this season. It'll take a lot to beat the collective love of Tom.

Zaid Hakim

I truly had no vibes on Zaid going into the audition tapes, and, even now, I still struggle with what to do with him. At least now I have a relationship with Ivy to go off of, as well as his care for his mom. That's cool!

Overall, Zaid seems like a really chill guy. If I knew him in real life, I'm sure I'd want to be his friend. However, average, cool guys are hard to place in a series like DC. Does his lack of exaggerated traits indicate that he might be easy weight to cut early in the game, or is his personality now simple to allow it to grow later in the season?

Due to the immense focus on him and Ivy hanging out early in the season, I'm sort of inclined to believe that it would be the former. Of the two, the Episode 1 trailer seems to indicate that Ivy has a bit more going on, so if this pair is to be separated partway through the game, I think it would be Zaid out first. And, they might be focusing a lot of Ivy and Zaid early because they don't get that long in the game together.

I have no oppositions to Zaid, but I guess I'm putting him premerge. I won't be at all upset if he makes it further, though.

Tristan Vik

Tristan actually had a shockingly low amount of content portrayed in both of the trailers, given the fan favorite I assume they'll be. It makes me worry that they might be an earlier boot than people expect.

That's compounded by the fact that I don't feel they have any natural allies on the Fire Team. Preseason, I had scoped out Natalia (trans handshake) or Alessio (artist handshake) as allies for them, but both of those two are on the Ice Team. I could see Tristan being friends with Hannah, as they're both friendly and about the same age? They were also shown in the trailer with Ivy and Zaid, so they could be a third cog of that relationship.

It is true that Tristan's perhaps overly jokey nature and apparent lack of strategy could cost them early on. I would have predicted a pretty late-game finish for them otherwise, but maybe the vibes are off? Or, maybe the lack of content is just indicative of them saving Tristan's content for later on in the season. With their spindly build and machinating lack, I can't see why anyone would really target them early on. At this point, I'm kinda thinking surprisingly early (premerge) boot for Tristan, but I could totally see it going the other way.

Marissa Xulu

I really want to know why Marissa's dressed so army-core when she isn't even enlisted in the army yet. That doesn't make sense to me. I guess she just comes from a super military family?

Anyways, copy and paste Logan's curse of athleticism bit here. Kinda wild that the two of them are on the same team, actually? I guess whoever in the (in-universe) DC staffing department wasn't too concerned with balancing strength, because they seem like the two biggest athletes here.

I feel like Marissa will also be a mid-game, probably post-merge boot? But I also feel like I keep saying that for everyone. Hopefully that'll change as we move further on the list.

Amelie Pierre

You can see it throughout this post-- Amelie seems like she's at risk for not having any natural allies on her team, she doesn't seem to appear in much of the challenge footage, and I (personally) have claimed that she seems like too obvious of a villain to be the true main villain of the seasons. With those aspects combined, it's not hard to predict that I personally think that Amelie is at risk of being the first boot, or at least the first boot off of the Fire Team. There's a very easy path to nobody liking her (due to her clearly not helping out with whatever log moving the team is doing in Episode 1) leading to everyone voting her out first as a consensus pick of an unfriendly and strategically dangerous player.

I do really like her vibes and backstory, though-- making a character like this a wedding planner feels like a match made in heaven, yet somehow not too much of a stereotype. Amelie's continued presence wouldn't be a problem, but she is probably my best pick for first boot at the moment.

Benji Hattori

Do you guys think Benji will be eliminated early--

Repeat from Hannah's section; I could very easily see a Benji-less future for S4 when I thought it was "foreshadowed" that would be the case. And, even now, he's not giving me a ton of hope. Both his Casting Call lines and his audition tape are giving big clowned upon energy, and in the hunting clowns challenge (where he literally is a clown), we see Spencer getting mad at him before he gets hit by an arrow. At least we know he won't be eliminated as a challenge threat...!

His friendship with Hannah might buy him a bit of time, but I could still totally see Benji being the second or third boot off of the Fire Tribe, pre-merge. If, for instance, Spencer is the one to orchestrate his removal, it could further the rivalry between him and Hannah. There's also a future where Benji makes it surprisingly deep as a non-threatening comic relief character, but I'm definitely leaning towards a quick exit.

Natalia Baez

I can tell they're gonna have fun with Natalia. All of her dialogue in her audition tape feels to me like the writers have a great understanding of her character, which is great to see. And, damn, why is she so strong?!

Outside of being excited for a potential relationship with Isabel, I don't really have much to say about Natalia, other than that I like her. I imagine she's probably going to make it decently far, as another fan favorite-looking type...? Really, that's it, though.

Lynda Anderson

Even preseason, I felt like Lynda was way too obvious of a villain to make it far. I know that she says she's going to be behind the scenes and under the radar, but the woman just oozes evil vibes. Like, these people have all seen Fiore compete in S1, right? They should be able to spot this "innocent" act from a mile away!

My best guess is that Lynda will attempt to play the under the radar game, but get ratted out by her team pretty early. That could be as early as the first Ice boot, as the footage seems to suggest, or maybe more of a second or third Ice boot.

However, I could be overthinking it as well. A lot of people seem to want to talk to her, which could indicate that she's assimilating well. Of course, one of those people is Ted, who probably wouldn't want to align with the "innocent house wife," so it could also go to show that her act isn't working.

Lynda is one of those characters who's either getting cut really early or making it super close to the end, but will most likely not get eliminated in the middle of the game. I guess I'll call it a "high variance character" for lack of a better name. Lynda could get kicked out for scheming early, or place, like, third as the main villain. As I said, I'm predicting the former, but if Lynda makes it to the merge, she could go super deep.

Isabel Carboni

Isabel... confuses me. Like, she's super cool, but I have no idea what to do with her. There just aren't many characters like her out there to compare tropes against, y'know?

I do think that the Lord has big plans for Sister Isabel in the sense that the DC writers are the gods of the DC universe, and I don't know why they'd create a character like Isabel if they didn't have plans of what to do with her. There's a slim chance that she was just added to DC4 as an early flame-out character, but I definitely get the sense that there's more to her beneath the hood than that.

I don't think she'll be a villain, though, despite her hinting at it in her audition tape. I think she might make, some kinda mean moves, but I don't think she's going to be an all-out "religion is bad" kind of character. Even if she is the main antagonist, I believe it'd be in a way that's divorced from her faith. I also don't really think Isabel's going to win, but, maybe a losing finalist...? That might be pushing it a bit too far, though. Given how popular Isabel seems to be, I bet ONC is wishing that Isadore has a late game placement, at least.

Is anyone else worried about the 999 (upside down 666) on her name tag...?

Spencer Lawrence

Spencer is perhaps the highest variance character in this cast. He's either getting voted out, like, literally first as a consequence of his hubris, or he's going to character arc his way into being the winner or something. Personally, I'm sticking with my prediction that he could be the winner.

If he does win, though, he's got a long road to get there. His audition tape is basically screaming for him to get proven wrong one way or another, whether that means getting voted out or just coming close. For a highly specific prediction, my vibes say that the first Fire vote will come down to which the Fire team dislikes more: Spencer or Amelie. Diego, seeing potential in Spencer, will pull some strings to make Amelie the boot instead, and then Spencer will be forced to play the game from the bottom instead of being the dominant force that he planned.

The fact that Spencer is seen so often throughout the trailer (in all three of the challenge locations, even) definitely bolsters my opinion. I'm probably reading into his interactions more because I thought he might win, but he seems to have something cooking with Diego, Hannah, and Benji already. It's main character energy! ... Or "gotta show the early boot before they leave" energy. Like I said, high variance.

He literally has the vibes of Jake combined with Alec, people. And you know who various groups wanted to win DCAS? Jake and/or Alec. Boom, I rest my case. (/j)

Richard Miller

You keep slaying, Richard. You keep slaying...

Richard also has decent longevity to me because of how strongly I believe he's going to have some sort of emotional arc with Logan. Other than that... yeah, I dunno, chief.

I certainly don't think that Richard is winner material, especially in a world where Miriam already won the first season. I think he'll likely be eliminated before Logan; it's just a question of when. Do I mark him down as another vaguely early post-merge boot? Yeah, probably. I could also see him as, like, the last pre-merge Ice boot, to force Logan to play for himself going into the merge. It's something like that.

Ivy Berki

I didn't really get much from Ivy preseason, but now that we've seen more of her, I really like her! Her combined aspects of a relationship with Zaid, an actress' redemption, and a potential nepo baby backstory(?) give her the legs to make it really far in the competition, honestly. Plus, she has a good tribe draw-- she's near the middle of the pack age-wise, and on top of foreshadowed relationships with Zaid and Tristan, I could totally see her being friends with Hannah and/or Benji due to their similarly bubbly personalities.

Given that Riya just won last season, I really doubt that Ivy would win this one here. However, it would be pretty funny if she came in third place, so that actresses would have taken up the first, second, and third slots collectively. Otherwise, she could also go out in more of the Final 5-6 zone, potentially. Or, earlier than that, obviously. But I definitely get the vibes that, out of her and Zaid, she'll be the one that makes it longer in the competition.

Jade Tanko

I know a lot of people think Jade has super late-game energy, but I... don't...? Not really, at least.

I just feel like we don't know a lot about her. We know that she has vitiligo, and that her parents are from Nigeria, and that she likes marine biology, and she wants to "change the way that this game is played." That's cool, but, like, what's her personality? "Chill"? Without any obvious allies, is that enough to carry her to the endgame?

I'd very much like to see whatever game-changing strategies Jade has in store, but I don't know if I believe it. She could be the sort of "kind yet under-focused" early boot trope that Lill, Dan, or Maggy fell into. But, in their fourth season, I sort of hope that wouldn't be the case, and I also don't know why they'd have her claim that she was going to shake up the game if that wasn't untrue.

I genuinely have no clue what to do with Jade. Maybe I should just call her fifth place as some sort of consensus. Personally, I'd lean more midgame. But I could just be missing that special something that everyone else can apparently see.

Diego Olivo

Diego's initial lack of a voice actor troubled me, but I don't actually think that situation was under "his" control. Now that he does have one, I think he could do fine! ... Probably!

His potential for romance with Spencer is really what's saving his chances with me. Spencer had better not get voted out early, lol.

Don't get me wrong, Diego seems like a sweetheart! He's another person that I'd love to know irl. And, most likely, he'll make it pretty deep due to his friendly personality and probable physical strength. Between him and Spencer, I still lean Spencer, but it could be Diego! Who can say? I was also willing to believe that his no-profile-having-ass could have been kicked immediately. Let's dub him fourth or whatever and call it a day.

Alessio Castelli

I want Alessio to kick ass in the competition because I think he's cool, but... I fear the first boot allegations may be tolling for him. If Lynda isn't the first Ice boot, I think it's basically over for Alessio due to the footage. And because I don't know what allies he'd have on that team. He's shown with Logan in the trailers, I guess...?

Although having a spotlighted presence in the Episode 1 trailer is ostensibly good, for Alessio, I can't help but read it negatively. "I don't care about early bonding; I care about the deconstruction of civilization" sounds all well and good. But, it could also easily be a confessional illustrating how his lack of game awareness will be his quick undoing. The main point I've seen in favor of Alessio is that his character intro says, "Will Disventure Camp 4: Carnival of Chaos inspire him to find his artistic spark again?" as opposed to just "will Alessio win" or "have fun watching Alessio!," which could indicate a longer run for him in which that question is answered. However, it could also be answered with a resounding "no" as he's eliminated first. It could even be that he figures it out in the Loser's Motel or at the finale or whatever.

Even if Lynda is the first Ice boot and Alessio survives, I don't think he'd make it too much further. Early merge boot is my latest forecast for him.

Finally done! This post is way too long. Excited to see the season on the 30th, and get proven totally wrong in subsequent episodes 😎 Thanks for reading!

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