#the date in the corner may be dec 1 but these were done over the course of the whole month

[adamoose-art]

Isat Doodle Dump #1!

I've been wanting to post my doodles for so long! Here's the first page! (Plus a little)

(minor Act 3 spoilers!)

Close ups of the main page under the cut

Notes:

I wasn't very satisfied with all the empty space still on the page but I made up for it by absolutely FILLING the page I'm posting tomorrow lol.

The axolotl toy in that one image isn't relevant but it was cute so I didn't crop it out

These were my first impressions of the characters: 1.Siffrin is so much shorter than Odile that the concept of them running around town is so funny. 2. With the b&w, lines, and walking animation, I was convinced Isabeau wore a big skirt. I still think he would tbh 3. Thought Mira had pigtails.

Loop is comparing Siffrin to that hedgehog-screaming-at-the-ground meme. This came to me in a vision immediately after it happened

[merlinthoughts]

Season 1 Episode 4 - The Poisoned Chalice

- god fucking dammit here we go again, i'm bloody done with my life and do not, at all, want to see merlin die bc i don't remember anything except that, yeah, he dies and someone has to get off their ass and save the motherfucking day and kiss him

- i realise how much i swear in these posts bc 1. when do i not? 2. i'm emotionally invested 3. i have no other excuse i just like swearing

- AAAND NIMUEHS IN CAMELOT SHE THINKS SHE'S SO SLY WITH HER HEAD THING

- id recognise her in a split second tbfh, she aint subtle

- *heterosexual tension*

- merlins skin be looking so smooth this episode, this boy be wearing lots of Dove

- he looked so excited to be in the banquet, then arthur just fucking slashes him with “not quite” and his hopes and dreams are destroyed

- “wanna see what you’ll be wearing tonight?” arthur says as he's behind the fucking changing curtains, about to get undressed and show merlin his birthday suit

- i honest to god thought that was where he was going, but no, he was just getting something from behind it

- “tonight you’ll be wearing the official ceremonial robes of the servants of camelot” IT'S A FUCKING DRESS ISN'T IT

- aw damn id have preferred a dress

- that smile shared between them was the most adorable scene

- god

- i

- fucking

- love

- their

- smiles 

- sm

- best thing ive ever seen

- i mean… hunty look at that piece of glistening butter beauty

- wow ok back to the episode:

- bros being bros and giving each other a handshake to destroy the mortal enemy pack and put together a family, we stan.

- as if a servant who has only had eye sex with another servant ONCE would trust them enough to say that one of the chalices were poisoned. like??? “ur the only one i could tell” LMAO NO?

- she's a sly fucking dog tfbh

- “if he kills arthur, uthers soul will be broken and camelot will fall” at this rate uther prob wouldn't care if his son dies or not, look at him, he's already mentally broken. he has anxiety and paranoia over magic. child services where u at in the medieval ages?

- i wouldn't believe a word she said, or well, id have believed it was poisoned but id say yeah no damn way you aren't in on it if you know which one it is. bayard wouldn't tell a fucking servant.

- HE'S GONNA SNAP ISN'T HE

- MERLIN FUCKING SNAPPED

- yknow what we say here folks? U DO U MERLIN

- okay i was fine if uther made bayard drink it but like the moment uther said “mmmh… no.” and slowly turned to merlin i think my arteries just crunched together and died so

- “if it is poisoned, he’ll die” HE'S FUCKING SCARED MERLIN WILL PASS AWAY ISN'T HE?

- “it's fine” he says, then starts to fucking choke

- ah fuck he's down

- my boy is down

- FUCK ME SIDEWAYS WITH A CHAINSAW

- ARTHUR CROUCHES NEXT TO HIM LIKE “BB NO”

- lmfao bayard looks so shocked, his face is in disbelief and confusion, he's like who tf done me bad

- arthurs carrying merlin fireman style this is what i live for folks

- did like nobody notice the flower stuck on the inside of the cup? like honestly if you take a sip you’d kinda spot it or perhaps even the person pouring the drinks would have been “is this chamomile tea? no? then what the fuckery-doo is this leaf in here for?” yknow. it's like that scene in Matilda when the angry buff lady completely missed a fucking salamander in her cup when it was the size of her bloody hand. it brings out the same mood honestly

- does gaius have an index for these books or does he just have every page memorised and know exactly what page to go bc I FUCKING NEED THAT it would make bio so much easier if i knew what page it was on instead of looking back and forth from the homework sheet to my textbook, then closing it by accident and having to find the index again for that specific page i need

- arthur wants to fucking go on a life-or-death journey to save merlin i've never been so happy

- this is honestly my favourite episode, like it may be really fucking angsty but i love it so much

- arthur betrays his dad and leaves his room even after being told not to just so he can save a servants life is literally my new moto

- NO IT WON'T LOAD MY NETFLIX IS STUCK ON 99%

- okay so while i'm waiting for my shit to load, i just discovered the new fucking tumblr rule starting dec 17 and i'm like 0.2 inches away from just spamming NSFW pics on here just for laughs

- like hunty, that won't stop people from posting elsewhere or for thinking about sex bc like??? whatchu gonna do tumblr?? get the fbi to erase it from our minds

- i think nOT thot

- watch me get flagged for just using the fucking term “NSFW”

- i'm gonna end up asterisking everything (is asterisking a word? wow it has red under it so like probably not but i just added it to my dictionary so uhh it is now)

- by asterisking i dont mean furry kin shit ew no

- i mean like N*FW, s*x, t*mblr, m*rthur

- god it took me like 20 minutes to calibrate my fucking wifi and fix the connection problem

- wow the stage for the poison increased by 75% in 30 mins, damn

- merlins like like having a conniption on his bed lmao, chanting arthurs name and sweating lot

- do we ever find out how uther gets that scar bc i'm like 100% positive arthur was a little child and swayed his fucking sword too hard just as uther rounded the corner. the sword then collided into his fucking brain and destroyed a good part of his intelligence, targeting especially his morals on how to accept people and how to be a good father

- that’s my theory

- merlin starts talking enchantments in his sleep while gwens watching, and gaius is just there like wtf merlin ur blowing ur cover “oh! gwen!! uhhh sorry. he’s just... in a latin study group in his pastime and has an oral presentation in minutes”

- omg, nimueh, stfu

- i didn't know dinosaurs existed back then, this reptile be whack

- y’know what's funny? ppl thinking dinosaurs didn’t exist. i find creationism very very very intriguing bc how fucking stupid could you be

- that sword throw was faker than my moms tits

- arthur could have done better

- k but like what if merlin’s hand wasn’t under the covers? like he was just throwing that blue ball around right in front of gwen

- can arthur like not hear her? nimuehs literally enchanting the rocks right behind his ear lobes and arthur acts nothing of it until those said rocks collapse and he gasps and suddenly he realises shes evil

- also his fucking hair in this scene looks glorious. perhaps bc it's pushed back rather than his bowl cut, but its doing things to my abdomen

- i thought for a second she was pulling off her mask to say “nimueh” and arthur was gasping bc he only recognised her after her hair was shown, just like in that scene with joker and harvey in the hospital

- OH RIGHT THE SPIDERS I LIKE COMPLETELY FORGOT ABOUT THOSE SONS OF A GUNS

- i’d be dead if those spiders came crawling up to eat me lmfao

- k so nimueh went from :) to >:D in half a second

- i'm smelling up those symbolisms, boys

- watch out pals cause here are some of them:

- merlin is the LIGHT of arthur’s life

- he LIGHTS up the party

- he gives arthur a BRIGHTER future

- he's the GUIDE for his path

- hahhahahaha

- i'm serious when i say i have a huge fear of insects (spiders count in that too, no discrimination) so i'm just putting that there, saying to yall id be fucking terrified

- gaius would be so confused, like we don't see his face here but merlins close-up sweaty concentrated frown, but he’s literally just screaming “ARTHUR!!” “FASTERRR!!” “YESS!!” “CLIMB!!!” gaius would be looking like he walked into something he wasn't supposed to. prob thinking he should just let the kid die so he doesn’t have to deal with this shit anymore

- UTHER LOCKED HIS SON AWAY I'M FUCKING QUESTIONING HIS PARENTING SKILLS

- that's grounding???? throwing ur child in prison???

- yes 999 can i have child services on his ass

- gwens so smart honestly i love her

- pretending to be a maiden for the food, god what a queen

- arthur buying it and saying “yuck you say this is food?! disgustang!”

- the fact that i misspelled disgusting but it autocorrected to disgustang (which is originally what i wanted but autocorrect shouldn’t have known) makes me consider if i should really check my dictionary…. who knows what words are on there

- they’re so smart

- and then this fucker ruins it all while eating his food, checking her out and saying yeah arthurs a prick, hyuck hyuck, realising only that wait fuck u aint the maiden

- how’d they know GWEN was the one not supposed to have delivered the food, what if it was that chick right there???

- welll….. maybe it's because gwen took her sweet time up those steps, staring as if she couldn’t blink at the guards below

- i forget what happens at the end of this episode besides the kiss, and there's like 9 minutes left my fingers may rot at this point

- wake him up! wake him up!

- OH WAIT HE DOESN'T FUCKING WAKE UP DOES HE AND EVERYONE PANICS

- YEAH OKAY I'M SEEING THAT NOW

- MERLIN STOPPED BREATHING

- LMAO GWEN IS IN TEARS

- “HE'S DEAD” SHE SAYS

- ARTHUR BB COME IN HERE TO KISS UR HUBBY ALIVE

- OH WAIT UR IN FUCKING PRISON

- WAIT UP, HE'S ALIVE AND SHE KISSES HIM AFTERWARDS????

- FUCK ME I THOUGHT FOR THE WHOLE EPISODE THE KISS HAPPENED BC HE COULDN'T WAKE UP THAT'S FUCKING WITH ME I DIDN'T KNOW

- i keep forgetting to switch up the cap locks, sorry if it seems im screaming im legit using my inside voice for most of the time just emphasizing my words a little more

- goddamn, everytime they say mercia i just think of “murica”, like those americans on the 7th of july or whatever date the “we love our country” day is, chanting it as they throw around beers and fireworks as people gather round in jerseys or crop tops

- it's not that hard to spot the european on here

- the most celebrated holiday here which contains a lot of beers and big pub gatherings (besides every fucking night honestly) is either new years, lowkey stereotypically correct saint patricks, and ig easter monday but that's more for the kiddos

- i mean ofc christmas and all that shit but im not the most devoted christian, i just like presents and small gatherings among good friends

- wow okay it wasn't the 7th of july

- i mean at first i looked up “USA day” (i couldn’t remember the name) and it popped up today’s date, and i was like no thats not it at all. dec?? its in like july i think. and i was close! it was july 4th.

- uther damn knows it's nimueh!!!

- i mean, he just overheard morgana and arthur talk about it, and initiated himself into a convo about it once morgana left, as his sneaky ass just slithered up like “hey man, u know that woman? yeah uhh, what she say? anything about me? no? k i know who it is tho”

- i thought he was going to apologize or like explain to arthur what's the sitch, but he just waits for five whole seconds before saying. “those who practice magic know only evil. they despise and seek to destroy goodness wherever they find it.”

- arthur, confused: sounds as if you know her

- uther, walking away: i do

- arthur:

- wow k lots of fucking quotes here cause it's the merthur reunion

- get ready babs

- arthur: still alive then?

- merlin: oh yes, just about… i understand i have you to thank for that

- arthur, leaning on the chair merlin is sitting in, stifling a smile: ah it's nothing, a half-decent servant is hard to come by. i was only dropping by to make sure you’re alright… i.... expect you to be back to work tomorrow

- merlin, watching arthur as he slightly walks away having embarrassed himself: arthur... thank you

- arthur, slowly: you too

- they stare for like 5 whole seconds

- arthur, uncomfortable: well… get some rest

- there we go folks: my eulogy.

- hope someone reads it at my funeral

[bloojayoolie]

7/11, Beautiful, and Children: 6 yrs old, 75 lbs Manhattan ACC Blocka ID# 46248 Gorgeous, lovable Blocka would love to go home! She is a bit on the shy side and very sweet. *** TO BE KILLED - 1/5/2019 *** HER OWNER DIED :( UPDATE: Blocka HAS BEEN TRANSFERRED to STATEN ISLAND ACC to better her chances of adoption but now she's on the kill list :( Meet cutie pie Blocka ~ Raven angel whose shy, silly smile has captured the hearts of all volunteers. Gorgeous, lovable Blocka finds herself in the shelter because her owner passed away :( She is a shy, sweet girl, very beautiful and cute. Blocka needs time to understand where she is now and what happened to her and she is still about to get to know the shelter surroundings and her volunteers. A volunteer writes on 12/31/18 It's very sad to see any companion spend their days in a kennel. But when you've been such a good girl, and no one notices you for 2 months, it's even sadder. Blocka has done playgroup with other dogs in MACC, and has appeared very loose with other dogs in SIACC. She's a little shy at first with people, but then warms up nicely with the one she's with. Blocka wants to start the new year in a home. There is nothing sweeter than seeing a shelter pup walk out those front doors to start a new beginning. Let's see if we can make that happen for sweet Blocka!! An MACC volunteer adds at 12/31/18 Blocka is a great dog. She started her ACC tenure at MACC where she won plenty of volunteer hearts by being a little shy but a lotta sweet. She's actually in better shape than when she arrived, as there was "more to love". Her MACC fans are rooting for her. Another volunteer writes: I could block an entire week in my calendar and still not have the time to adequately describe Blocka. A beautiful, raven girl, full of body and heart, and with a perpetual crinkly-eyed smile on her face even if her mood isn't matching. You see, smiles, they can deceive. And while Blocka romps excitedly along on leash, prances from corner to grassy corner in a pen, and grins endlessly and expertly for photos, that she's searching is obvious. And that she's missing is clear. But not as clear as her strength. On a recent fall day Blocka was resting quietly in her kennel. One look at that face and gorgeous figure behind it and I knew we just had to meet. And as she trotted by my side, giving me a shy, upward glance so often along the way, my heartstrings were pulled nearly as high as Blocka's tail, and if I could give her infinite hugs I would. Blocka is a calm, well-mannered girl who is still occasionally shy with strangers, and might do best with an experienced, patient, and loving family who'll allow her to bloom in her own time. I could block an entire week in my calendar and a whole section of my heart and it still wouldn't be enough for Blocka. One who deserves nothing but all the world. Blocka is waiting in adoptions at Manhattan ACC. Another volunteer writes: They don't come more beautiful than Blocka. Or more sweet. This curvy cutie sadly was brought to the shelter after her owner passed away, and to look at her shiny, perfect coat and full belly, is to know she was deeply loved all her life. Because of that Blocka has had a difficult time at the shelter now without the only family she's ever known. She has enjoyed her time in playgroup and while she's begun to open up to some of her favorite staff members and volunteers, might still prefer an experienced and patient family without young children due to her currently shy temperament. The best things in life are worth waiting for and Blocka is absolutely worth the wait! A Staff Member Notes: Blocka has been waiting for a home since 11/02/18!!! That's quite a long time to spend in a kennel day in and day out. She is a little shy at first, and appears to get along with other dogs. She's in adoptions at SIACC! MY VIDEOS: Blocka in Staten Island ACC http://bit.ly/2RaFRdV http://bit.ly/2C07MDd Beautiful and Bashful https://youtu.be/g7v3VK1Y8Kg Blocka, Daisy and Merritt https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ng-G_CxVmY Dak and Blocka https://youtu.be/jh-67QSrxbI Blocka with lots of doggies in playgroup https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwa98M7DVjk Blocka, Sebastian and Reese in playgroup https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WN7zZOzrjfw Blocka ID# 46248 Staten Island ACC (was Manhattan Animal Care Center before) 6 yrs old, 74.8 lbs Black / White Spayed Female Large Mixed Breed Cross Brought in as a Stray Reason: Owner died Intake Date: 11-02-2018 SHELTER ASSESSMENT ~ EXPERIENCED HOME No young children (under 5) BEHAVIOR NOTES Means of surrender (length of time in previous home): Stray SAFER SCORES: Date of assessment: 5-Nov-2018 Look: 2. Dog's eyes are averted, body posture is stiff and fearful, tail is low and not moving. Dog allows head to be held loosely in Assessor's cupped hands. Sensitivity: 2. Dog stands still and accepts the touch, eyes are averted, tail is between legs, body stiff, mouth closed, lip long, ears likely back, may lip lick. Tag: 2. Dog is fearful but unresponsive when touched. Approaches the Assessor when the game ends. Dog is likely crouching, may have a long lip or lip lick. Paw squeeze 1: 1. Dog gently pulls back his/her paw. Paw squeeze 2: 1. Dog gently pulls back his/her paw. Flank squeeze 1: Item not conducted Flank squeeze 2: Item not conducted Toy: 1. No interest. Summary: Blocka approached the assessor cautiously after a few minutes. She was tense and panting throughout the assessment but allowed all handling. Summary: Blocka may succeed best with slow introductions to dogs who are respectful and calm. Summary (1): 11/2: When introduced off leash to male dogs, Blocka is fearful and keeps only to herself. Summary (2): 11/3: Blocka continues to be fearful when with other dogs. She will allow brief greeting but prefers to keep to herself. Summary (3): 11/4-11/6: Blocka keeps to herself in a group of calm male and female dogs. Summary (4): 11/7: Blocka greets politely. 11/9: Blocka allows polite greeting but corrects for play solicitation. Summary (5): 11/11-17: Blocka mostly seeks exit. 11/18: Blocka engages in gentle play with a select dog. Summary (6): 11/20: Blocka mostly seeks exit. 11/21-25: Blocka plays gently in a group of polite dogs. Summary (7): 11/26-26: Blocka keeps only to herself. 11/28-29: Blocka engages in bouncy play with a select male dog. 12/12-14: Blocka engages in bouts of running play, mostly seeks exit when not engaged. 12/15-21: Blocka engages in running play with several male dogs. Date of intake: 2-Nov-2018 Summary: Allowed handling Date of initial: 3-Nov-2018 Summary: Tense, allowed handling ENERGY LEVEL: We have no history on Blocka so we cannot be certain of her behavior in a home environment. At the care center, she displays a medium level of activity. IN SHELTER OBSERVATIONS: Blocka was initially fearful and shut down at the care center, avoiding interaction with novel handlers. Over time she has opening up significantly, displaying loose body and wagging tail when approached by known handlers, seeking petting and attention, and increasing her play. Blocka has seemingly benefited from a low, anxiolytic dose of trazodone as the improvements in her behavior during both one-on-one socialization sessions and playgroup have been in line with starting trazodone. BEHAVIOR DETERMINATION: EXPERIENCE (suitable for an adopter with some previous dog experience, especially with the behaviors outlined below) Recommendations: No young children (under 5) Recommendations comments: No young children: Due to the behavior seen in the care center, we feel that Blocka may be intimidated by young children. She needs a slow approach and time to warm up. She should never be forced to interact with new people, and should be allowed to greet and initiate an interaction at her own pace. Older, gentle children should have an in-depth interaction prior to adoption. Potential challenges: Fearful Anxiety Potential challenges comments: Fearful: Blocka is fearful at the care center. It is important to always go slow and give Blocka the option to walk away from any social interaction. Bloacka should never be forced to approach anything that she is uncomfortable with or to submit to petting or handling. It should always be Blocka’s choice to approach a new person or thing. Blocka would do best in an initially calm and quiet home environment and should be given time to acclimate to her new surroundings. Anxiety: Blocka appears anxious at the care center, whining, panting, and barking during most one-one interactions. We do not know if this will occur outside of the care center. If it does appear in a future home, we recommend puzzle toys, long walks, and giving her other things to focus on to alleviate her anxiety. Positive reinforcement, force-free training only should be used. MEDICAL EXAM NOTES 1-Dec-2018 Progress Exam HX: Noted to need traz for increasing kennel stress SO: BARH NO sneeze or cough noted, no discharge Remainder of visual exam unremarkable A: increasing kennel stress P: trazadone 3mg/kg PO BID until otherwise noted 15-Nov-2018 Progress Exam adding trazodone at behavior request --- 350mg PO q12h x 14 days 9-Nov-2018 Progress Exam Other Lab Interpretation Idexx UA USG 1.008 White Blood Cells 6-10 Red Blood Cells 10-15 Bacteria RARE RODS <9/HPF hematuria with pyuria and bactiuria Inadequate urine concentration r/o secondary to frequent urination VS psychocenic polyuria polydispia vs secondary to UTI plan: clavamox 375mg tablet -- give 1 q12h x 7 days repeat urinalysis +/- culture in 14 days if USG remains low after repeat UA, recommend AUS and urine culture 8-Nov-2018 Tech Exam urine SAMPLE sent to IDEXX 7-Nov-2018 Tech Exam Please collect urine sample to run sediment only (dipstick and specific gravity already performed) (sign also on cage) 6-Nov-2018 Tech Exam Collected small amount of urine free catch - enough for dipstick and specific gravity only 3-Nov-2018 Tech Exam sedated with butorphanol 1.3ml/dexdom 1.1ml for rads/cbc/chem/UA- unable to obtain urine for UA, requested sample full reversal given cleaned ears 3-Nov-2018 DVM Intake Blood Work Interpretation CBC chemistry Unremarkable. DVM Intake Exam Estimated age: ~5-8 yrs based on PE. Microchip noted on Intake? scanned negative. History : stray; blood seen in kennel. P urine is brownish in color on floor. Subjective / Observed Behavior - BAR; allowed all handling but tense, shaking and whale eyed throughout exam. Evidence of Cruelty seen - none Evidence of Trauma seen - none Objective BCS 8/9 EENT: Eyes clear, ears malodorous with moderate yellow exudate, AU; no nasal or ocular discharge noted Oral Exam: dc 1/5; pd 1/5 PLN: No enlargements noted H/L: No murmur ausculted; CRT < 2, Lungs clear, eupnic ABD: Non painful, no masses palpated U/G: intact female. no scar or tattoo seen. mammary glands are enlarged with no masses palpated MSI: Ambulatory x 4, skin free of parasites, healthy hair coat. approximately 2inch pendulous skin mass along ventral chest CNS: Mentation appropriate - no signs of neurologic abnormalities Rectal: externally normal. Assessment pendulous skin mass - r/o benign vs malignant obesity dental disease hematuria r/o cystitis, radiolucent urinary calculi, renal in origin, UTI otitis externa Prognosis: good. Plan: CBC /Chemistry sedate for 3 view abdominal rads Urinalysis -- unable to obtain cysto while under sedation. Placed sign for free catch. ear cleaning claro otic weight management! weight loss of ~15 lbs, then reassess SURGERY: Temporary waiver pending diagnostic findings for hematuria Radiographic review No evidence of radiographic stones present. Bladder is small in size, appears normal. * TO FOSTER OR ADOPT * HOW TO RESERVE A “TO BE KILLED” DOG ONLINE (only for those who can get to the shelter IN PERSON to complete the adoption process, and only for the dogs on the list NOT marked New Hope Rescue Only). Follow our Step by Step directions below! PLEASE NOTE – YOU MUST USE A PC OR TABLET – PHONE RESERVES WILL NOT WORK! * STEP 1: CLICK ON THIS RESERVE LINK: https://newhope.shelterbuddy.com/Animal/List Step 2: Go to the red menu button on the top right corner, click register and fill in your info. Step 3: Go to your email and verify account \ Step 4: Go back to the website, click the menu button and view available dogs Step 5: Scroll to the animal you are interested and click reserve STEP 6 ( MOST IMPORTANT STEP ): GO TO THE MENU AGAIN AND VIEW YOUR CART. THE ANIMAL SHOULD NOW BE IN YOUR CART! Step 7: Fill in your credit card info and complete transaction HOW TO FOSTER OR ADOPT IF YOU CANNOT GET TO THE SHELTER IN PERSON, OR IF THE DOG IS NEW HOPE RESCUE ONLY! You must live within 3 – 4 hours of NY, NJ, PA, CT, RI, DE, MD, MA, NH, VT, ME or Norther VA. Please PM our page for assistance. You will need to fill out applications with a New Hope Rescue Partner to foster or adopt a dog on the To Be Killed list, including those labelled Rescue Only. Hurry please, time is short, and the Rescues need time to process the applications.

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

March came in like a lion; will it go out with a Lamb? Voters in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District will decide that on Tuesday as they vote in the first of many federal elections in 2018. Like in previous races for Georgia’s 6th Congressional District and Alabama’s U.S. Senate seat, the party that wins the Pennsylvania special election will be said to have the momentum heading into the pivotal midterm elections later this year. In our view, that’s a bit overblown — in reality, it’s the margin of victory that tells us what to expect in midterm results, and Democrat Conor Lamb is likely to overperform in Pennsylvania no matter who wins. We will still be watching that margin closely, though, and a decisive victory by Republican Rick Saccone could be a sign that that something in the political environment has changed. So here’s what you need to know to follow the race.

1. The partisanship

This seat became vacant in October 2017 after the resignation of GOP Rep. Tim Murphy, who admitted to an extramarital affair and allegedly asked his mistress to have an abortion despite his stated pro-life views. Before the scandal, the Republican had won eight consecutive elections in this district1 by margins of no fewer than 15 percentage points. In both 2014 and 2016, no Democrat even bothered to run against Murphy. President Trump carried the 18th District by nearly 20 points (58 percent to 39 percent); Mitt Romney won it by a similar margin in 2012. According to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average of presidential results,2 the Pennsylvania 18th is 21 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole.

That’s very red — but so were most of the other places where we’ve seen special elections so far this cycle, and Democrats in the vast majority of those races have consistently done better than the partisan leans of their districts would predict. The margin in federal special elections specifically has moved 16 points toward Democrats compared to each constituency’s usual partisan lean. If that happens again in Pennsylvania, Democrats will be nipping at Republicans’ heels.

How will Dems perform in Pennsylvania’s 18th district?

Special elections this cycle, by the constituency’s partisan lean* and final vote margin

Year Date Seat Partisan Lean Vote margin Dem. Swing 2017 April 4 California 34th† D+69 D+87 +18 April 11 Kansas 4th R+29 R+6 +23 May 25 Montana At-Large R+21 R+6 +16 June 20 Georgia 6th R+9 R+4 +6 June 20 South Carolina 5th R+19 R+3 +16 Nov. 7 Utah 3rd R+35 R+32 +3 Dec. 12 Alabama U.S. Senate R+29 D+2 +31 2018 March 13 Pennsylvania 18th R+21 ? ?

* The average difference between how the constituency voted and how the country voted overall in the last two presidential elections, with 2016 weighted 75 percent and 2012 weighted 25 percent.

† Primary results used because both general-election candidates were from the same party. Primary included multiple Democratic candidates, and results show vote share for all Democratic candidates combined.

Source: Daily Kos Elections, secretaries of state

But there’s reason to believe the swing in Pennsylvania could be even greater. First, in special elections for Pennsylvania state legislative offices this cycle, Democrats have outperformed expectations to an even greater degree: a 29-point shift in the margin. Second, the Pennsylvania 18th is actually ancestrally Democratic. Before Murphy was elected in 2002, the area3 was represented by Democrat Frank Mascara, who opposed abortion and gun control and projected a blue-collar image. That legacy lingers today in the fact that there are still more registered Democrats in the district than registered Republicans (46 percent of registered voters to 41 percent). Even though they’ve grown accustomed to voting Republican for president, voters in the 18th clearly aren’t opposed to casting a ballot for Democrats under the right circumstances. For example, the area currently within the 18th Congressional District voted for Sen. Bob Casey, who also campaigned as a pro-life, pro-gun Democrat, by 11 points in 2006.

2. The players

And lo and behold, Lamb fits the same socially-conservative-Democrat mold. A 33-year-old former federal prosecutor and Marine, Lamb says he is personally opposed to abortion4 and opposes new gun control laws. His GOP opponent Saccone, meanwhile, is a four-term state representative who brags he “was Trump before Trump was Trump.” Saccone is known as a rock-ribbed conservative but not as a strong fundraiser: He has raised almost $920,000 for the race and claimed just over $300,000 cash on hand as of Feb. 21. By contrast, Lamb has raked in $3.9 million and was sitting on a nearly $840,000 war chest.

Saccone won’t lack for resources, however, thanks to the GOP cavalry. As of Friday, independent-expenditure groups, including the Congressional Leadership Fund and National Republican Congressional Committee, had spent almost $10.5 million to prop up Saccone; Democratic outside groups had put in just $1.8 million. Even with Lamb’s $3.1 million in spending, liberal forces are being heavily outspent. The Democratic dollars are going farther, however, because candidates benefit from lower TV advertising rates than outside groups do. As of the beginning of March, 42 percent of broadcast TV ads aired so far were pro-Lamb, while 58 percent were pro-Saccone.

3. The polling

Four pollsters5 have surveyed the Pennsylvania 18th in the past month, and they all agree that the race is within the margin of error. Here are the latest numbers:

Latest polls of the Pennsylvania 18th special election

Dates Pollster 538 Pollster Rating Lamb Saccone Mar. 6–8 RABA Research C+ 48% 44% Mar. 1–5 Gravis Marketing B- 42 45 Mar. 1–3 Emerson College B 48 45 Feb. 12–14 Monmouth University A+ 46 49 Average 46 46

The two candidates are essentially tied in the average of the polls (although, for what it’s worth, Monmouth, the only FiveThirtyEight gold-standard pollster6 to look at the race, has Saccone ahead by 3 points7). However, despite the fact that the polls show a tight race, even a runaway win by one of these candidates wouldn’t be that much of a shocker. Polls of U.S. House races already carry a lot of uncertainty, and they’re even less reliable for special elections. Since 2004, polls taken within three weeks of a special House election have missed the final result by an average of 5 percentage points, and their true margin of error was 13 percentage points in either direction.

4. The political geography

Taking in coal mines, covered bridges, wealthy suburbs and lush state parks, the Pennsylvania 18th stretches from Pennsylvania’s southwest corner up north past Pittsburgh International Airport to the Ohio River, then cuts east across the Monongahela River to the Laurel Highlands. It encompasses parts of four counties: Allegheny (home to 43 percent of the district’s voters, based on 2016 presidential results), Westmoreland (33 percent), Washington (22 percent) and Greene (2 percent).

The 18th District’s slice of Allegheny County consists of Pittsburgh’s southwestern suburbs and is a swing region — Democrats typically find most of their votes here. The other three counties, more rural and far-flung, are normally Republican strongholds, although they have strong historical ties to organized labor, a traditionally Democratic constituency.

If you’re watching the special election results as they come in (polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern), pay attention to these county-by-county variations; they can help you project the ultimate winner. Assuming that the whole district shifts left or right uniformly (more on this in a second), we’ve calculated an approximate benchmark for how we would expect each county to vote if the election were exactly tied districtwide. If the counties are voting more Republican than their benchmarks, then Saccone is on pace to win. If they’re voting more Democratic, then Lamb is ahead. (The not-so-grisly math behind these benchmarks: We used the same weighted average of the last two presidential elections to arrive at a partisan lean for each county, then moved it 21 points in Democrats’ direction — because that’s how much the entire district needs to shift leftward to deliver Lamb a victory.)

County benchmarks for Pennsylvania’s 18th District

How each county might vote if the race were tied districtwide

Presidential margin County 2016 Vote Share 2012 2016 Partisan Lean Benchmark Allegheny 43% R+8 R+4 R+7 D+14 Westmoreland 33% R+27 R+34 R+35 R+13 Washington 22% R+18 R+27 R+27 R+6 Greene 2% R+25 R+43 R+41 R+19 Total 100% R+17 R+20 R+21 EVEN

* The average difference between how the county voted and how the country voted overall in the last two presidential elections, with 2016 weighted 75 percent and 2012 weighted 25 percent.

Source: Daily Kos Elections

Granted, the district may not shift uniformly. Westmoreland, Washington and Greene all voted much more Republican with Trump on the ticket than with Romney, while Trump seemed to scare away some Romney voters in Allegheny. Lamb’s Blue Dog appeal may mean he wins over more Obama-Trump voters than Romney-Clinton voters, making the 2016 election a poor template for 2018. In such a scenario, it’s quite possible that Lamb misses the mark in Allegheny but still wins the election by overperforming in Westmoreland and Washington, so use these benchmarks with a grain of salt.

5. The aftermath

Tuesday will likely be the last time you hear about a competitive district in the Pennsylvania 18th, but whoever emerges victorious in the special will likely have to fight hard to keep his seat in the regularly scheduled November 2018 election. How can this be? Earlier this year, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court struck down the state’s current congressional map as too gerrymandered in favor of the GOP; in February, the court imposed new district lines that are friendlier to Democrats. The new map splits most of the current 18th District between the new heavily Republican 14th District and the swingier, suburban 17th District.

If Saccone wins on Tuesday, he has said that he would seek re-election in the 14th, but if Lamb wins, he is expected to go after the 17th, even though he would have to face incumbent Republican Rep. Keith Rothfus there. Of course, the loser could decide to take a second bite of the apple in either the 14th or the 17th as well. After all these long hours of campaigning and millions of dollars spent, it’s entirely possible that, at the beginning of 2019, Conor Lamb and Rick Saccone will both be members of Congress.

Both will also have to decide their next moves almost immediately after the last drink is poured at their election-night watch parties on Tuesday. The deadline to file to run in November is March 20, one week later.

[taeyongtown]

D-15: Where’s my Mistletoe? - Jisung Fic

Day 1 of 15, NCT christmas writing countdown.

summary: Renjun invites you to a dumb Christmas party, and you only go for a chance to kiss your crush, Jisung Park.

word count: 1.7k

genre: fluff, semi-angst, christmas (taeyongtown’s christmas countdown 2017)

A/N: I haven’t written something since August. its dec 10 today. Anyway’s i haven’t proof-read this, and feedback and constructive criticism is always appreciated 🌟

christmas countdown masterlist | masterlist

You didn’t even want to be at this dumb Christmas party anyways, but ofc Renjun dragged you along anyways. Well okay he didn’t drag you along, more like guilted you into coming.

“Oh Y/N, you’re my favourite underclassman, and I do so much for you!”

“Renjun when have you ever—”

“like remember that time you got detention and I got you out of it? Or that time you would’ve FAILED that fundraising project if I hadn’t bought all the left over cupcakes or when—”

“Renjun I don’t even go to your school and besides he’s gonna be there—”

“and you’re telling me you won’t even come ??????? Jeno and I didn’t DIE for this disrespect”

As soon as you walked in, Renjun had given you a hug and greeted you warmly, and you know, you felt like it’d be fine, what’s the worst that could happen? But then, he flashed you his pure boy smile, and disappeared into the throng of student. Yes, throng. As in huge crowd. It seemed like at least half of SOPA was here.

Is Taeyong alive, and how did Renjun and Jeno fit in so many kids into their dorms ???

You already weren’t super close to the rest of dream, and really, you had only expect them to invite like 15-20 kids max, and here you were, stuck with at least 50 or 60 kids giggling and talking and kissing under the FIVE MILLION MISTLETOES SLUNG EVERYONE

Whos fucking idea was this ??

Yup, taeyong is definitely not okay rn

Take a shitty college party, replace the alcohol with hot chocolate and like fucking Gatorade, and replace the making out with giggling under mistletoes and that’s the hell that you were in rn

So here you are, sulking in the corner, not only bc you were surrounded by a bunch of infants, but also bc Haechan and Chenle were screaming with a karaoke station, and Mark was dying in a corner with at least a dozen girls holding mistletoes over him as Renjun laughed, and mostly bc Jeno had tried to get you to kiss a boy who wasn’t Jisung Park.

Yes, you liked Jisung Park.

While you had known Renjun for a really long time, and Chenle for around a year or so, you had only really met the rest of the boys a few months ago

Renjun often used Chenle’s house as a place to tutor you, as Chenle was the only one who lived outside the dorms

While you weren’t super close with Chenle, he was like an acquaintance who you didn’t mind

So one day, a few days after school had begun, and when Renjun was done most of his main promotions for We Young, y’all were at Chenle’s

Renjun said he was going to get busier and so it would be good to look at the syllabus to plan out when you would need the most help in tutoring

God bless that boy he’s so sweet

And it’s all calm and quite with no one around

Until Chenle bursts open the front door, with Jeno and Jisung marching behind him

They’re all a little shook, but recover quickly, especially Jeno

Ofc you knew who they were but you hadn’t acc met them, save Chenle

While Chenle sniggers in the background Jeno approaches you professionally “Oh Y/N, I’ve heard quite a bit about you, it’s lovely to finally meet you!”

Renjun puts him in a headlock.

Jisung, however, is extremely quiet and just makes eye contact and smiles at your from across the room smh

And I guess that’s why you kind of fell for him?

Bc he was around your age and he gave you the soft fluttery feeling that you had barely experienced before ?

Anyways, wow I rambled of course Renjun knew the minute y’all left, he was your childhood friend after all

And what Renjun knew, Jeno probably knew too.

And a small, just a tinyyyy part of you had been looking forward to this party

Because you really, really wanted to see Jisung Park.

But no, Jisung was sitting in the living room, wearing some dumb reindeer antlers,,,, giggling with a few of his classmates, some boy, some girls— most of whom were at least 7 hundred and 89 times prettier than you :/ uGh

AnD suddenly,,,,, you had an amazing idea :- )))))) Putting on your best smile, you went out to go search for Renjun.

You find him in the kitchen, refilling snacks.

“Ahhh! Y/N, I hope you’re having a good time !! See, I told you it would be fun!”

You smiled through gritted teeth :- DDDDD

“Yeah, about that! Could I borrow your laptop? I have a huge history project due, and my partner keeps asking me to Skype her bc apparently she messed up :/”

Renjun looked worried, but smiled

“Yeah, it’s in my room, feel free to use it… you remember my passcode right?”

You grinned and hugged him tight, as if the best thing in the world had just happened

“Yes I do! Thank you so much !!!” you scrambled, running out to find his room

Were you going to call a friend? No. You guys had finished the project last week. Were you going to take a nap? Yes, of course you were. Renjun rly wouldn’t mind, he’d be a little disappointed, but he wouldn’t mind, you’d had sleepovers before. It was 8pm right now, and if you set your alarm for 9:30, no one would even notice.

You hit set, and before you knew it, you were asleep.

Except you slept through your alarm. Not by a lot, just maybe thirty minutes. But it was enough for you to be shaken awake by Jaemin, a slightly amused expression on his face. You weren’t close to him, but you didn’t mind him, he was really nice.

Your eyes widened at the site of him, and you scrambled to get up. “Relax,” he giggled, sitting down beside you.

“This is about Jisung isn’t it?”

“Huh?”

“your crush”

“What no— I mean yes I like him— but no! wait what are you implying” you gush

Jaemin laughed again

“You probably wouldn’t hate this party as much as you do rn if it weren’t for Jisung”

you :///// “I guess,,,,,,,,,,,,”

“I say, just give it a shot, it almost Christmas, miracles do happen”

You throw a pillow at him

None the less, you grumbled and get up, tidying yourself in the mirror beside Renjun’s desk. You follow Jaemin towards the living room, and gasp. There were barely a dozen kids left, non including dream. You turn towards Jaemin, “what happened?!” “Most kids at SOPA are either trainees or some type of creative connoisseurs, we all need our beauty sleep Y/N!” Jaemin exclaimed before waltzing off.

You see Jisung sitting beside a few kids talking animatedly, but he himself was on his phone. You decide to take Jaemin’s advice, and go sit beside him. What’s the worst that could happen? “Hey!” you say, plopping down. Jisung looks a little shookt, but he smiles down at you, straightening up. “Hey Y/N! How long have you been here?!” “The whole time,” you say bashfully. His jaw drops a little, “What! No way, I mean you should’ve at least said hi :/ you have no idea how bored I was, everyone’s leaving!” he gestured around him, and that at the kids beside him who got up and walked towards Jeno, probably to say goodbye. You giggle, a little surprised, yet extremely content, at how bubbly and friendly he was being.

The conversation would’ve continued great, except…

“YO! Y/N” Jaemin yelled your name from across the room. You saw him smiling like an angel, and you saw, beside him, Donghyuck smirking like the devil. Donghyuck slung something at you and Jisung, which lodged itself in Jisung’s dumb antlers.

A mistletoe.

This was NOT the Christmas miracle that you were expecting. But maybe it’s the one that you deserve,,, ???

You looked around the room bewildered, looking anywhere but Jisung. You eyes settled on Renjun, expecting some help, but instead he just smiled into his hot chocolate. kermit looking ass. You narrowed your eyes as you realized it was probably his plan.

Donghyuck whooped, “GET IT JISUNG!” You looked down and shoved your face in your hands. Mark giggled, and him and Jeno yelled “Maknae on top!” “That’s so old…” Jisung mumbled, and when you snuck a glance at his face, it was bright red, even in the dim evening lights. Sensing you looking, he glanced up at your eyes, holding his eye contact for no longer than .25 seconds.

“Y/N…” he mumbled, his voice small and childlike.

“Jisung…” you replied back, a slightly shy smile on your face.

“I guess we have to Y/N,”

“I guess so,”

“May I?” He asked, finally looking up into your eyes. You nodded, your eyes fluttering close.

You felt him leaning in, and you did too, for what felt like a year. Maybe it wouldn’t have taken so long if y’all hadn’t been sitting a literal foot apart. You felt him place his lips on yours, his puckered and stiff. But it didn’t matter !! you were kissing Jisung Park !! your long time crush !! your face looks like that gif of haechan when jisung calls him ugly u kno the one. You leant in a little bit more towards him, both of you unsure of what you were doing, you trying to move your lips.

It was over before it even started, but before it was over, you felt a loud click go off. “My badddddd!” Chenle yelled, fake laughing, a camera in his hands. There was a brief silence, and then cheers. “Y/N I TOLD U CHRISTMAS MIRACLES HAPPEN! GET IT!” Jaemin yelled and you look at him, eyes wide in horror. “NA JAEMIN!” You threw another pillow at him.

Jisung ran his hand threw his hair, shy and looking like a baby chick. You leant forward and untangled the mistletoe from his antlers. He gasped, breath held.

“Jisung, I was wondering if you want to go on a date this weekend?” You asked him, looking directly into his eyes, a sudden wave of confidence over taking you. Jisung blushed, his eyes still wide, his face redder than ever.

“I would love to, Y/N”

[stopsubstanceabuse1-blog]

ActualTests - CRISC Sample Test Actual Questions Pass The Test Latest Edition

New Post has been published on https://www.substanceabuseprevention.net/actualtests-crisc-sample-test-actual-questions-pass-the-test-latest-edition/

ActualTests - CRISC Sample Test Actual Questions Pass The Test Latest Edition

ActualTests – CRISC Sample Test Actual Questions Pass The Test Latest Edition

Dumps Forum CRISC Sample Test Guide Torrent Free They are eating Brain Dump EXIN ITIL Demo next to nothing, said the nurse. Try Latest CRISC Real Exam Practice Test Pdf

When Dickonbegan Isaca CRISC Vce Files to clear places to plant seeds, she rememberedwhat Basil Isaca CRISC Exam Dumps Forum had sung at her when he wanted Isaca CRISC syllabus 2018 to tease her.

Isaca CRISC gratis Isaca CRISC Sample Test Ensure Pass CRISC Certificate Certification Practice Exam Answers exam Certified in Risk and Information Systems Control Perhaps Exam Material I couldnt haveone at all.

She had nothing to read or to look at,and she had High Success Rate CRISC Free Braindumps Free folded her thin little black gloved hands inher lap.

I had CertLibrary Latest Edition : Isaca Actual Questions seen it and I had been in, she said.

Exam Collection Isaca CRISC Sample Test CRISC Certification 9tut Are you one?He stared and stared Isaca CRISC Exam Dumps With Online Shop PDF and VCE Download (1-50) and stared.

Passing Score An his eyes Exam Pdf is so round, said Martha, a trifle doubtful. Useful CRISC Guide Exams Dumps

Would you hate it Easily Pass Exam if if a boy looked at you?Mary asked uncertainly.

Then he laughed and she laughed too; in fact it endedin their Isaca CRISC it Isaca CRISC Sample Test exam Certified in Risk and Information Systems Isaca CRISC Sample Test Control papers grade 12 both laughing a great deal and finding the ideaof a boy animal hiding in his hole very funny indeed. Practise Questions

Fruit trees were trained flat To help you pass the exams CRISC PDF Ebook Pdf against the wall,and Isaca CRISC dumps Free Download free over some of the beds there were glass frames.

If he does live and that CRISC Sample Test Indian child stays here Illwarrant she teaches him that the whole orange does notbelong to him, as Susan On Sale Pass The Test CRISC Sample Test Latest Version Isaca CRISC Sample Test Actual Test Latest Version Isaca CRISC Sample Test Actual Test CRISC Sample Test Actual Questions. Sowerby says.

That is my experiment Isaca CRISC cbt nuggets Will you help,Ben Weatherstaff?Aye, aye, sir! said Isaca CRISC Doc Ben Weatherstaff.

The robin talked this over CRISC Sample Test with his mate a great dealfor a few days but after that he decided not to Isaca CRISC itIsaca CRISC Sample Test exam Certified in Risk and Information Systems Controls review speakof the subject Testing Engine CRISC Exam Sale On Online Sites because her terror was so great that Exams Prep hewas afraid it might be injurious to the Eggs.

Isaca CRISC Demos Outside in the corridor, being a rather good natured man,he Isaca CRISC all the questions that you will face in the Isaca CRISC Sample Test exam Certified in Risk and Latest Version Of Exams CRISC PDF Answers Online Test Exam Dumps Reddit Certified in Risk and Information Systems Control Braindumps Pdf Exam Schedule CRISC Certification Exam Online Shop Information Systems Control center smiled until he Latest Version Of Exams CRISC Dumps Questions Exam Material almost laughed.

The valley was very, very still. Latest Dumps

Isaca CRISC training She went to her walkoutside the long, ivy covered wall Valid and Updated CRISC Dumps Exam Material and Real Exam Questions And Answers over Isaca CRISC Todd Lammle Pdf For Sale which she couldsee Isaca CRISC Sample Test the tree tops; and the second time she walked upand down the most interesting and exciting thing happenedto her, and it was all through Ben Weatherstaffs robin.

Isaca CRISC Lab Manual PDF She bent very Isaca CRISC Offer close to them and sniffed the fresh scentof Valid and updated CRISC Practice Test Online Sale the damp earth.

I should like [28-Dec-2018] Best source of CRISC Sample Test exam questions is, where you download CRISC Sample Test Dumps and free pdf. Pass your exam at first attempt by memorizing and practicing these real questions | to see them, said Mary.

I only drove over it in Full Course the dark.

Isaca CRISC PDF Real Exam Questions Dumps Meaning CRISC Questions And Answers Pass Score For Exam and Answers Exam Material The nurse saysthat you eat much more Isaca CRISC Isaca CRISC Sample Test exam Certified in Pass Rate CRISC Sample Test PDF updated on 28-Dec-2018 contains Certified in Risk and Information Systems Control exam questions and answers with CRISC Sample Test Exam Engine, you will pass next Isaca exam guaranteed and get CRISC Certification. Risk and Information Systems Control online than you Isaca CRISC Sample Test have ever done before.

Theyll poke up a bithigher here, an push out Isaca CRISC Passing Score a spike more there, an uncurl aleaf this day an another that.

What does Free Up To Date CRISC Sample Test exam training material in PDF format, which is a very common format found in all computers and gadgets it want?It wants its mother, said Dickon, smiling more and Isaca CRISC Prep Guide more.

No one owns more than his bitof a quarter an theres times it seems like theresnot enow quarters to go round.

Latest Version Isaca Actual Questions Isaca CRISC Sample Test Pass The Test Latest Version Isaca CRISC Sample Test Actual Test CRISC Sample Test Actual Test. Thall see him flyin backward an Passing Score forard carryin worms nigh as big as himsel an that much noise goin on in th nest when he getsthere Isaca CRISC Exam Download as fair flusters him so as he scarce knows which bigmouth to Online Training Isaca CRISC Top 10 Best Exam Simulators drop th first piece Isaca CRISC Isaca CRISC Sample Test exam Certified in Risk and Information Systems Control CRISC Sample Test topics Isaca CRISC Sample Test in.

It was a weak Isaca CRISC it Isaca CRISC Sample Test exam Certified in Risk and Information Systems Control questions and answers bleatin an I knowed it was a new lambas was hungry an I knowed it wouldnt be hungry if Pass Exam ithadnt lost its mother somehow, so I set off searchin.

They have to come Isaca CRISC Get Certified Using back,tha sees.

With th door locked an th key buried.

She had looked forward to telling him a great many thingsand she had meant to try to make Isaca CRISC dumps free download up her mind whetherit would be safe to trust him with the great secret.

Mistress Mary Isaca CRISC Exam Questions always felt Isaca CRISC Practice Exam that however many yearsshe lived she should never forget that first morningwhen her garden began to grow.

Why did Mr Craven hate Newest CRISC Exam Practice PDF Exam Syllabus the On Sale garden? she said.

I am fond of it.

Eh! I did have a look for it.

What did I tell you?I turned round the wrong corner, explained Mary. Newest CRISC Real Exam Questions And Answers PDF Archive

When Martha told stories of what mother said or did theyalways sounded comfortable.

It was Colin.

Ill tell thee what usll do first, she proceeded,and Dickon grinned, because when the little wench triedto twist her tongue into speaking Yorkshire Free Download it amusedhim very much.

Why is that?To tell the truth, sir, Guide Torrent Master Colin Isaca CRISC 24 hours might be betterand he might be changing for the worse.

Sometimes they were pictures of dark,curious landscapes, but oftenest they were portraitsof men and women in queer, grand costumes made of Isaca CRISC official Certification cert guide pdf satinand velvet.

I never seed no sense in th Doxology afore, he said Certified in Risk and Information Systems Control CRISC Sample Test hoarsely,but I Isaca CRISC it Isaca CRISC Sample Test exam Certified in Risk and Information Systems Control papers grade 12 may change my mind i time.

Th doctors thought hed have to be put in Isaca CRISC itIsaca CRISC Sample Test exam Certified in Risk and Information Systems Controlworld review a sylum.

Daily Dumps CRISC Sample Test Certification.

New Update Posts

Microsoft 70-486 Online Examination

Cisco 700-260 Exam Paper

Cisco 300-206 Dumps Pro

IASSC ICGB Practice

[websitedesigningplus]

Letters from the Captain

New Post has been published on https://enchantedtitanic.com/letters-from-the-captain/

Letters from the Captain

I have found a Message Board Archive that reprints a interesting collection of Letters from Captain Smith to his nephew and other related letters.

Repost of the Shelley Dziedzic’s post in case of forum changes….

Shelly says………… The Blunt-White Library is located in the historic seaport museum in the town of Mystic. In 1977 I heard of a repository of letters written by Capt. Smith to Frank Hancock,(his nephew) while on board as Captain of the Olympic, Adriatic, Baltic, Mrs. Smith’s mourning letter (black lined) to Frank, and Christian Mallock’s letter to Frank. Letters are such personal things-to only see an old photo of Captain Smith tells little of the man. His penmanship is lovely- Spencerian copperplate I believe. I felt an overwhelming sense of urgency as I read the letter to Frank telling of taking out Titanic next month-to run for a phone to call the Captain-to let him know what catastrophe would lie ahead. The window of the reading room looks out on the Mystic River, full of boats and an old sailed whaler-I lost track of the hour and decade and felt thrown back to February 14th, 1912-the date of the letter. I wrote out the transcription of the letters and I will reproduce them here for those not having a copy of Voyage 1,the periodical of Titanic International. I hope this is the right format to do this.I start with the most exciting letter dated 14th February, 1912 On Board the Olympic- My dear Frank, Yours of the 24th December and the one introducing Miss Brookfield came to hand and I owe you an apology for not answering promptly but I seemed to be kept in a perfect whirl and the days passed so quickly. When I thought of your letter it was somewhere where it was not convenient to write and then it would slip from my memory,so there you are, it was not want of appreciation I assure you. I am pleased to hear you are hopeful of success in your undertakings. Sinclair is in Florida at present but when I meet him again I will just mention you and sound him.You have no doubt heard we are appealing the case (regarding Olympic-Hawke collision) .I have not much hope as it is hard to upset a verdict in England;however it will let them see we are not going to take it lying down. The Mallocks crossed with me last trip. We had a poor trip as far as weather was concerned but enjoyed one or two chats at the table. I did all I could for Miss Brookfield’s comfort. I had her placed at my table but found she was in the Second Class,so could not have the pleasure of her company,however she was well looked after and I think was comfortable on the trip. We had disagreeable weather and I had no opportunity of seeing her. we have not had pictures taken for years,you shall have one of the first. I leave this ship after another voyage and bring out Titanic on April 10 from Southampton. Give my regards to the Gordons and Churchills if you see any of them. With Kindest and best wishes, Your Affectionate Uncle Edw.J.Smith I will continue with Mrs. Smith’s in another message. He seems a very courtly and sensitive gentleman. Also of note is the marked class difference between first and second class in the case of Miss Brookfield’s not being able to sit at table with the Captain. A reminder that the original letters are owned by the Blunt White Library and the originals can only be copied by the same and reprinted with permission. Titanic International was given permission to reprint the text and I obtained permission to reprint the content from my handwritten transcription/Shelley Dziedzic

Grey paper, wide black border, upper left hand corner Telephone 1400, upper right hand corner Woodhead, Winn Road, Southampton Dear Frank, I’m sorry to be so long in answering your letter and picture of your family which I am pleased to have. What a lovely outlook from your home. By the “Olympic” I have sent you a Menu of “The Dinner” ,Dec.28th, 1911. My dear one said only in March, 1912 he wanted you to have a copy, which of course I could not send not having your address. I am more than proud of that picture, I have a large one of “the dinner” -it’s a great one to hand down to his Gillie and her children please God, and he seemed to think you also might be proud to possess a menu. His own was bound in white Morocco, edged with silver bands. I suppose you have a nice picture of him, the last one taken on “Olympic” in his white uniform;if not I could let you have a copy taken from it. It’s a glorious picture, so spirited and fearless, no one with an expression like that would do other than he did. I am proud to bear his name. I wish you could know-read all the magnificent tributes paid to him. I never knew any one man create such esteem and love as he had the power of doing, and no son of England died a more noble death;he and Captain Gates may stand together and away up higher than the highest. The way has been and is hard. No sooner is one thing over, than another looms ahead. I have had to face all the too-horrible actions on the part of the Congress working on the “Titanic” claims. They intend to make out faulty navigation. By lies only can they succeed and has been proven by the experience of the “Olympic” case, lies DO succed, in the hands of the evil one. Melville went away to boarding school last May 7th so I am alone. She is happy and has the same bright-happy disposition as her Father. I hope to spend June 14th and 15th with her, being mid-term. I want to go from this house soon as I can but what a wrench to leave the sacred room of his, where one last said goodbye. I cannot write you a decent letter as I would like. It is too trying even yet, so please excuse. I wish I had a picture of myself to send to you. My dear Ted was always asking me to have one done, as Melville now is. Did you know of the memorials they have put up in Hanley? -a brass tablet and two pictures in the old school.There is also to be something in New York, in the Seaman’s Church Institute, and from what I hear there is something on foot in England. I believe the Duke of Sutherland is the chairman, and some very prominent men on the committee including Lord Pirrie, Bishop of (illegible) and Willisden. Did you ever hear of dear Ted saving the child? It is quite true and so like him.I should much like to hear from you again. Receive my Kindest message for yourself and family to whom I (illegible)-enjoy good health. Very Sincere Love, S. Eleanor Smith June 6 A tender tribute indeed from a loving and loyal wife- I never thought of the Captain as “Ted”. It makes him seem more of a family man. *The original of this letter is owned and printed with permission of the Blunt-White Library, Mystic Seaport, Mystic Connecticut

R.M.S. Baltic 20th July, 1905 Dear Frank, I was sorry to learn from your letter that you were not likely to be North as I have been looking forward to seeing you and having a chat! However, as prosperity is the cause we must not complain. I was glad to hear from Myers that you were doing well and had the makings of a good position. You did not say how your Mother and family were but I suppose no news is good news. Miss Browne sat with me and we had a congenial party and I think she enjoyed the trip, we had not the pleasure of hearing her play as all her Music was in the hold. Thank you, my Wife and only one are quite well;have just had an extra week at home and getting a little better acquainted with my daughter. The management are keeping this ship going constantly to make all they can while she is popular. If you ever have a journey north, try and arrange it so as to be there while we are in port. Give my regards to General Gordon, Churchill and Myers when you see them. If you see George Walker you might mention me to him-he was very kind to me when I was in “Lizzie Fennell” though he may have forgotten me after so many years.With kind regards to all in your circle,believe me Your Affectionate Uncle Edw.J.Smith *The original letter is owned by the Blunt White Library, Mystic Seaport, Mystic Connecticut. Content published with permission. Text copied as it appears in the original with punctuation and capitalization as shown. A tender portrait of a doting father and husband, and a thoughtful host. No wonder he was so admired and sought after by White Star and passengers making a crossing. I especially am touched by “my Wife and only one”./shelley

On board R.M.S. Adriatic 28th April 1910 My dear Frank, It was a great pleasure to get your nice chatty letter. It is pleasant to get a cheery letter now and again, most of these I get from my folks are very blue. The last I had from Lill gave me very poor accounts of John but you have probably heard from her since then. I am glad to hear of your success and sincerely hope it may continue and that you may eventually get so placed as to enable you to have more leisure. I envy your family, they are no doubt a care, but certainly a great blessing. We have been very unfortunate, having only one girl, she is great company for her Mother in her lonely life. I see by the heading on your paper you have an office in New York; is there no chance your coming up on business sometime? It would be great luck if you could do so when I am in port, I should enjoy a good long crack. I see by our list that Mrs. Mallock is crossing with us on Wednesday so I shall get the latest news of you. It is gratifying to know one has made friends. Our position is a trying one at times, it takes all sorts of people to make a world and it seems to me people show the worst side of their natures on shipboard. It was my intention to get to Savannah during our long stays in New York, but you know the saying “the best laid schemes of mice and men gang aft agley” so it was with me having two ships laid up the management took the opportunity of letting all the R.N.R. officers get in their drill so in three voyages I have had several changes in the staff, among them two chiefs, and while they were both able men they had never sailed with me before and I did not feel like being so far away;I am disappointed but it can not be helped.During the last three months I have only had Monday and Tuesday at home, not very satisfactory! We are now on our regular sailings and should arrive Thursdays. It was good of Mallock to offer to put his car at our disposal. It would have been a great treat to me to go over the old stamping grounds, though I have no doubt I would find things much changed. We expect our new ship”Olympic” out about July of next year.She will be faster and should arrive early on Wednesday so if they keep to the present sailing arrangements I shall get to see you, if I don’t see you before in New York. Please give my kindest regards to your Wife. She probably remembers meeting me years ago, and with all good wishes to you, believe me. ever yours affectionately, Edw. J. Smith *The original letter is owned by Blunt White Library, Mystic Seaport, Mystic CT text printed with permission/ Intriguing to see a side of the Captain who yearned for more children and appreciated the lonely life a sea captain’s wife must lead./shelley

Final letter S.S. Lapland upper right hand corner 23/4/12 My dear Mr. Hancock I do not doubt that you came under the same reaction of deep grief and depression which met me as I went North. No one speaking or thinking of anything but the ghastly tragedy-and nothing else in the papers. The horrible(underlined) papers-packed full of details which had no relation to truth and were manufactured by ignorant reporters for an ignorant public. It made me sick and angry when I thought of the dear brave man. Never before has the criminal irresponsibility of the American Press been so evident. I wish you could hear our Captain here on the subject. A Norweigan- with no brief for the” White Star Line” . He is indignant(underlined) at the mischievious and cruel insinuations that appeared before one word of real information was received; and says absolutely distinctly, as do all other honest seamen, that our (underlined) Captain was sailing his ship as every(underlined) other man would have done on a clear still night, and was fifteen miles South of the ordinary April route. He also says this Senatorial investigation and criticism of Mr Bruce Ismay is “ridiculous and uncalled for and impertinent”, another result of ignorance.-The suicidal “canard” one never believed for a second, and yet it was quoted by decent people until my blood boiled. I have had a long talk with Capt. Smith’s own steward who was saved and is here.He swam off at the last and was picked up. A decent young man whom I have known well for years. His account is what we and I am sure most English people know all along-I hope I am not incoherent in my just wrath. But you will understand why I write this to you (underlined). It is more than possible that those rumours and misstatements have hurt you and I meant to tell you myself (though I don’t doubt that it is now superfluous) that everyone with any knowledge whatever knows that Capt. Smith before and after the accident did everything a brave seaman would and did it as a matter of course. We are having a quite sunny voyage-but a sad one. Write me a line to Winchelsea ,Yes? And give my news on this subject, such as it is, to Colonel Brookfield who will care-I know. Believe me Always Sincerely Your Friend Christian Mallock *The original of this letter is owned by Blunt White Library, Mystic Seaport, Mystic CT and text is printed with permission. There are many points which may be researched in these letters, places, names of people, memorials, connections. What happened to Smith’s nephew Frank Hancock, etc. Perhaps we can ferret out new information and keep this thread going awhile. I feel much is revealed about the Smiths here. I hope you may find it useful. Thank goodness email did not exist in 1912- look what could have been deleted! This morning my father passed away after a long battle with cancer-he was a man of the sea too and served in the US Navy for 29 years-and he too had one little girl and a wife who led a lonely life. This seemed like a good night to share these letters with you./Shelley

[silviajburke]

A Tale of Two Gold Markets

This post A Tale of Two Gold Markets appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

In the early morning hours of Monday, June 26, gold fell about 1%, from $1,254 per ounce to $1,242 per ounce, in a matter of seconds.

And that the equivalent of 1.8 million ounces of gold were sold at once. The 1.8 million ounce amount is equivalent to about 59 metric tons of gold. That’s about 2% of the entire gold mining production of the world for a full year. No one sells that amount of physical gold.

Besides, mining output is almost 100% pre-sold these days, meaning that if you wanted to buy that much gold directly from a mine, you couldn’t do it, because it’s already committed to fulfill existing contracts.

Forget about getting gold elsewhere too.

The largest gold mining country in the world, China, produces almost 500 metric tons per year. But China also prohibits the export of gold, so you can forget about sourcing physical gold from China.

Gold refiners won’t sell you any gold either. The largest refiners are working triple shifts around the clock to meet existing demand. Many refiners are having trouble sourcing gold in the form of doré from mines, scrap jewelry or existing bars to keep their refining operations going.

Gold is also leaving the custody of commercial banks and heading to nonbank storage at secure logistics providers such as Loomis and Brinks. These transfers do not change the total supply, but they do diminish the floating supply available to support the leveraged paper gold products offered by London Bullion Market Association dealer banks.

In effect, more and more paper gold is poised on top of on an inverted pyramid with less and less physical gold at the base.

All of this information about acute shortages of physical gold relative to demand is well documented. In addition, I have gathered a large body of firsthand confirmation of these facts.

In the past year I have visited gold vaults in the U.S., U.K., Australia and Switzerland. I have visited gold refineries in Switzerland. I have visited gold mining operations in Canada and the U.S., and I have met with major bank and nonbank gold dealers in the U.S., U.K., Canada and China.

Everywhere the story is the same. Physical gold is scarce, difficult to source and already spoken for when you can find it. Meanwhile, demand for physical gold remains robust.

I met with the heads of gold dealing for two of the largest banks in China, ICBC and UOB. They both told me that demand for physical gold among Chinese retail buyers is strong, despite some reports to the contrary.

Your correspondent standing on the Bund, a waterfront thoroughfare along the Huangpu River in Shanghai, China, during a recent visit. Behind me is the original headquarters building of the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. (now HSBC), built in 1923. While in Shanghai, I met with the heads of gold trading for two of the largest banks doing business there, ICBC and UOB. Both reported that supplies of physical gold were tight and demand remains high despite some reports to the contrary.

A gold refiner in Switzerland told me, “Jim, if you called to buy gold and I did not know you personally, I would not even return the call. We have none available.”

With that as background to the physical supply-and-demand situation, why is the price of gold not soaring? That’s how markets usually respond to tightness in supply.

A higher gold price would encourage more mining (although new mines take five–seven years to actually produce gold), which would increase supply and equilibrate markets at a new higher price point.

The answer is that there really is no true market for gold, just a rigged game consisting of physical gold and paper gold trading side by side as if they were one and the same. They’re not.

The June 26 flash crash in gold is a good case in point. If I sold 59 tons of physical gold short and had to make good delivery, I couldn’t do it, nor could a bullion bank or dealer. Given the situation I described, you’d be lucky to source 5 tons in 30 days; even that would be difficult for anyone other than JPMorgan or HSBC. I would ultimately default on the contract and face a lawsuit for contractual damages and possible fraud charges.

But in the paper gold world, it’s not a problem.

You just pick up the phone, put the order in to your broker, post a relatively small margin amount (maybe $100 million on a $2 billion short sale, or 5% of the notional contract value) and you’re done. You’ve just destroyed the price of gold with no actual gold involved.

Futures markets exist ostensibly for hedging purposes, but it’s difficult to see why any commercial player would need to hedge 56 tons all at once. (By the way, orders of that size are usually “worked” over days or weeks. That avoids exactly the kind of market impact seen in this case, which hurts the hedging party because they get a lower price.)

Futures markets also allow speculation, which is considered to add liquidity and enable legitimate price discovery. But there’s a fine line between legitimate speculation and outright manipulation, which is fraudulent.

The difference between legitimate speculation and fraudulent manipulation is often difficult to prove, because it requires some finding of “intent” in the mind of the manipulator. That can be elusive unless there is a smoking gun email or other written evidence.

In some ways, this doesn’t matter, because regulators have shown no appetite to enforce the law. The message to manipulators is that this is a big boy’s market and players can do whatever they want as long as it’s not too blatant.

There is a lot of speculation about the actual motive of the flash crash paper gold short seller. Was this a so-called “fat finger” trade where the trader made a mistake by entering the wrong quantity or pushing the wrong button? That’s possible, but a more nefarious explanation comes to mind.

Paper gold trades not only as futures and bank forwards, but also as options on futures. The flash crash happened the day before an important expiration date in the options market.

Was a seller of call options at, say, $1,245 per ounce trying to sink the price the day before expiration in order to avoid a $10 per contract loss? That’s entirely possible, even plausible. We’ll probably never know, because enforcement in this area is almost nonexistent.

One of the most frequently asked questions by gold investors is, “Why should I invest in gold if the price is just going to get slammed by paper gold sellers with no actual gold? What’s the point?”

More broadly, where does the price of gold go from here?

The most important signal is that gold’s uptrend, which began on Dec. 15, 2016, remains intact. Even after the flash crash, gold remains just a bit below the previous low of $1,210 per ounce on May 10, 2017. That means gold is set for a rally above $1,300 per ounce, which would exceed the prior high of $1,293 per ounce on June 6.

The next powerful indication is the marked slowing of the U.S. economy in reaction to rate tightening by the Fed. This is showing up in auto sales, retail sales, disinflation, lower labor force participation and many other indicators.

The result of this slowing will be that the Fed will have to reverse course and use “forward guidance” to signal that they will not hike rates in September. That’s a form of ease that will lower the dollar index and raise the dollar price of gold.

Finally, investors can take comfort from the fact that all manipulations fail in the long run. Whether it’s the “gold corner” of 1869, the “gold pool” of 1968, Kissinger’s secret “gold dump” of the late 1970s, or “Brown’s bottom” (when the U.K. sold most of its gold at 30-year low prices) of 1999, or the more recent gold games on the Comex, all manipulations fail. Gold prices always find their way higher, because paper currencies always lose value over time.

The key response functions to manipulation are patience, confidence in the long-run path of gold and nimbleness in stepping up to buy gold at interim lows when manipulation gets out of hand, as it just did.

The gold rally that began on Dec. 15, 2016, is poised to continue despite the trauma of the flash crash. The crash represents a gift to investors. We now have a better entry point for what will still be much higher gold prices later this year.

Regards,

Jim Rickards for The Daily Reckoning

The post A Tale of Two Gold Markets appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

[bloojayoolie]

Being Alone, Andrew Bogut, and Bad: A friendly, playful, incredibly affectionate boy dreams of a new family to love him. QUIGGLph Id 51057, 4 Yrs., 65 lbs. Waiting w/hope, at the Brooklyn ACC **** THE SHELTER MADE ME A PRIORITY PLACEMENT THIS WEEK **** If I don't find a home this weekend, I will be in the front of the line on the TBK list !!! Intake Date – 12/22/2018 “I was abandoned because my dad had holiday travel plans!” Poor QUIGGLE is no stranger to a home of bars. His parent admitted that Quiggle spent 16 hours of every day crated, both at night when he slept and during the day when he was at work, for 3 long years. Before that, Quiggles had been at the ACC, in June of 2016, when his name was King George. He was a baby then, super friendly, social, affectionate and active, and he was also AVERAGE RATED! Little King George didn’t expect to have a life spent in cages, or a life spent under-socialized and with barely any contact with the outside world. After all 3 years spent with his dad, his dad decided to arrange some holiday travel this Christmas and dumped Quiggle at the shelter stating "I can't take him with me" and "he has behavior issues." We'd say his parent has behavior issues! How does an average rated puppy end up being a NH only puppy, protective of his parent who was his only world. It’s no surprise to any of us at MLD. Quiggle needed friends. He needed to continue to meet people and play with other dogs (in a former distant life he loved a small dog) but instead he had only his parent who seemed occupied with his life and spent little time with Quiggle. Now this highly affectionate, friendly, social and playful young man is short listed for the kill list, despite all these sterling qualities. Quiggle is STILL playful and bouncy with the girl dogs in playgroup, so a female companion may be lovely for him! So please, look at that adorable face – with his one Groucho Marx eyebrow and give this boy the life he always dreamed of when he was a puppy, the life he never had. He will need to go to an experienced adult only family (no kids under Age 13). Hurry and MESSAGE our page or email us at MustLoveDogsNYC@gmail.com for assistance fostering or adopting Quiggle. VIDEO FROM 2016 STAY AT THE ACC, WHEN QUIGGLES WAS NAMED KING GEORGE: https://youtu.be/tkc-uRLgpCk QUIGGLE (aka King George, id A1074117), ID# 51057, @ 4 Yrs. Old, 65 lbs. Brooklyn ACC, Large Mixed Breed (Bull Terrier) Gray / White, Neutered Male Owner Surrender Reason: Owner going away for holidays / behavior Shelter Assessment Rating: New Hope Rescue Only Medical Behavior Rating: OWNER SURRENDER NOTES – BASIC INFORMATION: Quiggle was surrendered into BACC due to his behavioral issues and also the owner was going away for the holidays and was unable to take Quiggle with them. Quiggles has previously lived with his 1 parent. Quiggle is aggressive towards strangers. He will bark, try to snap and lunge at strangers. It is unknown how he would behave around children. Owner stated he takes Quiggles to the dog park to play with the dogs but it depends on the type of dog and how Quiggle is feeling. Owner stated he tries not to have any bad accidents with another dog. Owner stated he has to be the dog in control when he plays. Quiggles has not been around cats so his behavior is unknown. Owner stated Quiggle do not resource his food or toys. They stated if you try to take his toy he will want to play tug of war with you. Quiggles is housetrained and has a high energy level. He has never had any medical issues. Bite history: Owner stated Quiggle has a behavioral issue. He tired two dog trainers and took him to the vet. He snapped at the owner's friend two months ago but did not break skin or scratch. Owner thinks this was due to Quiggles not knowing what was going on, and there were too many people in the house. He stated Quiggle also bit a dog while walking with the dog walker and broke skin but no stitches were required. The owner doesn't know much of the details surrounding what happen. He stated from what the dog walker told him, Quiggles got into an argument with another dog, and when they turned a corner he took it out on a different dog. For a New Family to Know: Quiggle is friendly, affectionate, playful dog with his owner. He loves affection and he likes to play tug of war. He also like to play fetch and chase with tennis balls. He likes to a guard his owner. He sleeps in a kennel about 16 hours a day, when the owner goes to work and to go to sleep at night. He eats dry food 3x a day. He is house trained. He does not like grooming. He goes to the bathroom on cement and dirt. He loves to brisk walk and run/jog for exercise. He pulls very hard on leashes. INTAKE BEHAVIOR – DATE OF INTAKE, 12/22/2018: Upon intake no handle was done with counselor. Owner put on a muzzle on Quiggle to avoid the dog trying to bite anyone. After the muzzle was put on, Quiggle began growling, barking and trying to lunge at anyone in the room who tried to come close to the owner. SHELTER ASSESSMENT - Date of assessment: 26-Dec-2018 Summary: Unable to SAFER due to behavior concerns: Quiggle has allowed minimal handling from his caretakers. Out of concern for his stress levels and his response to restraint, we feel Quiggle is not a great candidate for a handling assessment at this time. Please see his owner surrender profile for a full summary of his behavior in his previous home. PLAYGROUP NOTES – DOG TO DOG SUMMARIES: According to Quiggle's previous owner, Quiggle has spent time with one small dog that he was relaxed and playful with. His most recent owner reported that when Quiggle is at a dog park playing with dogs, he is selective with who he plays roughly with. When Quiggle was at the Care Center in 2016, he greets appropriately and wanders in the pen, occasionally sniffing the greeter dog. He is able to engage in bouncy, high energy play with males and females, but does attempt to mount them. He maintains loose and bouncy body language. The Behavior Department recommends that a thorough dog-dog interaction is done with any potential adopter's dogs to make sure the adopter's dog is tolerant of his high energy and mounting behavior. Playgroup 1 - 12/23: Quiggle briefly greets a novel female dog then anxiously paces the yard and paws at the gate ignoring her completely. Playgroup 2 - 12/26: Quiggle briefly greeted a novel female, but continued to display anxious behaviors. As the session progressed, his body did loosen and he offered the female a quick bounce. Quiggle remained neutral and explored the pens for the remainder of the session. INTAKE BEHAVIOR - Date of intake: 22-Dec-2018. Summary: growling, barking, lunging, no handling done. MEDICAL BEHAVIOR - Date of initial: 23-Dec-2018. Summary: tense, but allowed handling. ENERGY LEVEL: Quiggle has a high energy level and will need daily mental and physical activity to keep him engaged and exercised. We recommend long-lasting chews, food puzzles, and hide-and-seek games, in additional to physical exercise, to positively direct his/her energy and enthusiasm. BEHAVIOR DETERMINATION: NEW HOPE ONLY Recommendations: No children (under 13), Recommend no dog parks, Place with a New Hope partner. Recommendations comments: Due to all noted concerns displayed in a home environment, the behavior department recommends Quiggle be placed with a New Hope placement partner who is able to provide an experienced adult-only foster home. A period of decompression is recommended to allow Quiggle to acclimate comfortably to his new environment; force-free, reward based training only is advised when introducing Quiggle to new and unfamiliar situations. Consultation with a professional trainer/behaviorist is highly recommended for guidance to safely manage/modify any behavior Quiggle presents with outside of the care centers. No Dog Parks: Due to Quiggle's pickiness towards dog's we recommend no dog parks. Potential challenges: Multiple-bite history/risk of future aggression, On-leash reactivity/barrier frustration. Low threshold for arousal. Potential challenges comments: Social Hyper Arousal. Quiggle has displayed low threshold for arousal, rapidly escalating and quickly tipping over to aggression (owner reported dog biting friend when overwhelmed in house full of people & dog biting another dog after being upset with separate dog.) Immediate intervention and consultation with a qualified veterinary behaviorist/professional trainer is strongly recommended to aid in addressing this issue to prevent further behavioral concerns that may appear in the future if not treated right away. We recommend only force-free, reward based training when introducing or exposing Quiggle to new and unfamiliar situations. On Leash Reactivity/Barrier Frustration: At the care center Quiggle has been observed to react to other dogs and human passerby on leash, lunging towards them, barking and growling (reported by owner and seen at intake). Quiggle may need positive reinforcement, reward based training to teach him to look at you rather than other dogs and novel stimuli that may startle him. We recommend a front clip harness or head halter to help manage this behavior. Multiple-bite history: Quiggle reportedly bit owner's friend on hand but did not break skin and also bit another dog while on a walk with dog walker and broke skin. Please see owner profile. MEDICAL EXAM NOTES 23-Dec-2018 Progress Exam. Adding trazodone per behavior request. Trazodone 100mg tablet -- give 3 tablets PO q12h x 7days. 23-Dec-2018 DVM Intake Exam. Estimated age: Microchip noted on Intake? Scanned positive. mc#981020015674718. History : Surrender due to behavior and holiday travel. Reported to have had training sessions with no improvement. Hx of snapping at people and other dogs. Subjective / Observed Behavior - BAR; tense, but allowed handling. Evidence of Cruelty seen – none. Evidence of Trauma seen – none. Objective: BCS 7/9, EENT: Eyes clear, ears clean, no nasal or ocular discharge noted. Oral Exam: did not examine due to behavior. PLN: No enlargements noted. H/L: No murmur ausculted; CRT < 2, Lungs clear, eupnic. ABD: Non painful, no masses palpated. U/G: neutered male. MSI: Ambulatory x 4, skin free of parasites, no masses noted, healthy hair coat. CNS: Mentation appropriate - no signs of neurologic abnormalities. Rectal: externally normal. Assessment: overweight. Prognosis: excellent. Plan: recommend advanced behavioral training. SURGERY: neutered ********* NOTES FROM PREVIOUS STAY, 2016 (ADOPTED 6/11/16) KING GEORGE – A1074117 **SAFER: AVERAGE HOME** MALE, GRAY / WHITE, AM PIT BULL TER MIX, 1 yr, 3 mos OWNER SUR – EVALUATE, NO HOLD Reason NO TIME Intake condition EXAM REQ Intake Date 05/17/2016, From NY 11212, DueOut Date 05/17/2016, Medical Behavior Evaluation GREEN Medical Summary 05/18/16 12:16 Scan : negative Sex: male Approx 1-2yr S/O: BAR, friendly. Clean EENT. Cardiothoracic auscultation WNL. BCS 5/9. NOSF A: APH PROGNOSIS: EXCELLENT Weight 51.4 A volunteer writes: King George is rightly named. He has a regal bearing. With a black cape and white checkered pattern he is sure to turn heads in your neighborhood. One year and three months old–he is barely out of puppydom. Georgie is just the dog you need around the house. PROFILE King George is a year and 3 month old Bull Terrier/ American Pit Bull Terrier mix who was surrendered due to his previous owner not having the time to care for him. SOCIALIZATION Around strangers King George is friednly, outgoing and plays gently and somewhat rough with adults. King George has lived with children under the age of 12; around them King George plays somewhat rough. King George has spent time with one small dog who he was relaxed and playful with. King George has never been around cats so it is unknown how he will react to them. King George has never bitten another person or animal. BEHAVIOR King George will often defecate and urinate indoors and it is unknown how he will react to loud sounds. King George is not bothered by anyone touching his food or bowl while he is eating, taking a treat or toy/object away. King George is also not bothered by anyone pushing/pulling him off of the furniture, giving him a bath, trimming his nails, brushing his coat or holding/restraining him. If an unfamiliar person approached King George’s home or family he is friendly toward them. King George is also not bothered by anyone disturbing him while he is resting/sleeping. FOR A NEW FAMILY TO KNOW King George is described as: friendly, affectionate, playful, and excitable with a very high activity level. King George previous owner said that King George is very playful and thinks that he is a lap dog. When at home King George likes to follow around his owner and likes to play with squeaky toys, balls, and chew toys. King George likes to play chase, wrestling and tug. King George has been kept mostly indoors and was fed dry food three times a day. King George is partially house trained and has accidents a few times a week. When left alone at home King George will go to the bathroom indoors. When left alone in a yard King George will bark. King George has never been crate trained and know sthe commands sit, come and down. For exercise King George likes running and jogging. n the leash King George pulls very hard. When off leash King George will wander some but comes when she is called. King George will usually go to the bathroom on the grass outside. INTAKE BEHAVIOR King George allowed staff to collar, scan for a microchip and take pictures with no signs of aggression. SAFER King George previously lived with 2 adults and children under the age of 12 years old. The owner stated King plays with the children but somewhat rough, he also spent time with one small dog that he was relaxed and playful with. The owner describes King as friendly, affectionate, playful, and excitable. The owner mentioned King is partially house trained, has a high activity level and when home alone in the yard he will bark. AT INTAKE / SHELTER ASSESSMENT NOTES At intake it was reported King George was calm and allowed all handling. During SAFER King George came into the assessment room calm and relaxed, he was friendly and social towards the assessor. He allowed all handling items to be conducted without issue. King was relaxed during the tag interaction, and during the resources portion of the assessment King was easy to handle when engaged with the item. King George appears to be sociable, and did not display any behaviors concerns, so the department feels he can be suitable for an “Average” adopter. Look: 1. Dog’s eyes are averted. His ears are back, his tail is down, and he has a relaxed body posture. Dog allows head to be held loosely in Assessor’s cupped hands. Sensitivity: 1. Dog leans into the Assessor, eyes soft, soft and loose body, open mouth. Tag: 1. Follows at end of leash, body soft. Squeeze 1: 1. Dog does not respond at all for three seconds. His eyes are averted and his ears are relaxed. Squeeze 2: 1. Dog does not respond at all for three seconds. His eyes are averted and his ears are relaxed. Toy 1: No interest. Dog-dog: According to King George’s previous owner, King George has spent time with one small dog that he was relaxed and playful with. When off leash with dogs at the Care Center, King George greets appropriately and wanders in the pen, occasionally sniffing the greeter dog. PLAY GROUP NOTES According to King George’s previous owner, King George has spent time with one small dog that he was relaxed and playful with. When off leash with dogs at the Care Center, King George greets appropriately and wanders in the pen, occasionally sniffing the greeter dog. He is able to engage in bouncy, high energy play with males and females, but does attempt to mount them. The Behavior Department recommends that a thorough dog-dog interaction be done with any potential adopter’s dogs to make sure the adopter’s dog is tolerant of his high energy and mounting behavior. 5/24: King George greets with a loose and wiggly body. Once in the pen he solicits and engages in play. He becomes sexually motivated, attempting to mount the female greeter, but continues to play when solicited. 5/25: King George engages in bouncy play with a male dog. He attempts to mount him, but continues to play when solicited. 5/26: King George engages in group play. He chases and displays bouncy, loose body language. He attempts to mount the other dogs, but continues to play. 5/31-6/1: King George engaged in and solicited bouncy, mouthy play with males and females. He is tolerant of high energy play. *** TO FOSTER OR ADOPT *** QUIGGLE IS NEW HOPE RESCUE ONLY! To save his life, you must fill out applications with New Hope Rescue Partners. You cannot direct adopt him at the shelter. For assistance fostering or adopting Quiggle, please MESSAGE our page or email us at MustLoveDogsNYC@gmail.com If you would like to adopt a NYC ACC dog, and can get to the shelter in person to complete the adoption process, you can contact the shelter directly. We have provided the Brooklyn, Staten Island and Manhattan information below. Adoption hours at these facilities is Noon – 8:00 p.m. (6:30 on weekends) If you CANNOT get to the shelter in person and you want to FOSTER OR ADOPT a NYC ACC Dog, you can PRIVATE MESSAGE our Must Love Dogs page for assistance. PLEASE NOTE: You MUST live in NY, NJ, PA, CT, RI, DE, MD, MA, NH, VT, ME or Northern VA. You will need to fill out applications with a New Hope Rescue Partner to foster or adopt a NYC ACC dog. Transport is available if you live within the prescribed range of states. Shelter contact information: Phone number (212) 788-4000 Email adopt@nycacc.org Shelter Addresses: Brooklyn Shelter: 2336 Linden Boulevard Brooklyn, NY 11208 Manhattan Shelter: 326 East 110 St. New York, NY 10029 Staten Island Shelter: 3139 Veterans Road West Staten Island, NY 10309