#so they can be replaced with younger cheaper writers
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ryssabrin · 21 days ago
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bruh.
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jcmarchi · 19 days ago
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AI and Human Collaboration in Creating Short Series: How to Find Balance and Shape the Industry
New Post has been published on https://thedigitalinsider.com/ai-and-human-collaboration-in-creating-short-series-how-to-find-balance-and-shape-the-industry/
AI and Human Collaboration in Creating Short Series: How to Find Balance and Shape the Industry
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Days of multi-million dollar budgets to make a movie or TV series are over. Now you can add special effects to an episode for $100 instead of $8,000. Trust me, no one can tell the difference. Creating exciting dialogues and plot twists takes weeks instead of months. Voiceover and dubbing in dozens of languages are done in a couple of clicks. Yes, AI is already heavily involved in the film industry, and this is just the first step. 
It is expected that by 2033, Global AI in Film Market size will be around 14.1 Billion, with a CAGR of 25.7%. TV series will be released faster than before –– with AI, editing time is reduced by 40%. Certainly, more content will affect profits. It is projected to grow between $80 billion and $130 billion annually in the media and entertainment industry.
What will happen to actors, writers, producers, and others? Will they be left behind? Only if they fail to adapt. Human-AI synergy is a key. And here’s how to achieve it at all stages of content production.
Human-AI Brainstorm in Screenwriting
You all use ChatGPT (or other chatbots) to write emails and social media posts, so why shouldn’t screenwriters use AI to create cool stories? That’s exactly what 29% of the industry members are already doing. But here’s the thing: just like AI-generated text isn’t perfect, writing a script with AI alone would be boring. 
This is where the human creative brain is needed. It’s the one who can guide the AI, fill it with really interesting ideas, and turn the text into a TV show.  Hooks, dialogues that you can’t tear yourself away from, sharp plot twists –– it’s all a creative brainstorm of both AI assistants and humans. 
Actors Enhancing, not Replacing
AI can be used to “resurrect” actors and bring movie favorites back to the screen. For instance, Grand Moff Tarkin in “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” is a digital clone of Peter Cushing after his death. James Dean, who died back in 1955 in a car accident, will soon reappear on screen in “Back to Eden”. Using the same technology, Carrie Fisher appeared as Princess Leia in the “Star Wars” movie. 
Another way AI is interacting with the movie industry is by transforming age representation. AI can easily make actors older or younger, if needed. This is exactly what Disney did with Harrison Ford in “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. Based on her persona from the previous movies, they created a new, younger version. 
And finally, face changing. A very handy and extremely popular thing in the near future. Let’s say a team of actors worked together to create a series, and producers want to come up with something new with the same cast. Multiple products with the same actors wouldn’t work. In that case, Faceswap allows replacing actors’ faces — and now it’s completely different characters. 
What about human actors? They can profit from this! Actors can sign an agreement to use their faces in different shows and earn passive income. Besides, in this way, they can increase their recognition and then ask for higher rates.
Production Timeline and Budgets are Cut
It takes months to a year to shoot a season of a traditional TV series. Don’t even talk about enormous budgets! The thing about short TV series is that they cost about $200-300k –– that’s about 10 times cheaper than the classic format. And user engagement is higher! AI helps a lot with that. 
Make special effects? 42% of industry professionals already use AI to do so. Fly halfway around the world to shoot an episode in the tropics? No more needed, as you can generate the background with AI! 
And while AI goes further and further in its enhancements, don’t ignore the irreplaceable part played by humans. They are responsible for story direction, creative vision, making sure the audience gets the picture and the action on the screen, and much more! 
Post-Production Takes Weeks, Not Months
While post-production was once the most time-consuming part of working on a TV series, everything is changing now. AI is reshaping the way video editing works –– what used to take months is now a matter of weeks. 
The VFX tool makes creating animation effects a breeze, and it doesn’t require a huge team anymore. The same goes for dubbing and localization –– with AI, you can quickly transform content for a global audience. For example, with ElenLabs’ dubbing tool, actors’ voices are changed within a few clicks, translated into different languages, while retaining their intended emotionality. Keeping scenes authentic no longer requires a whole studio. 
AI has also sped up and facilitated dozens of editing team members. Color correction, sound effects, visual cleanup –– all these processes are highly streamlined, so you can ramp up content production.
Interactions with Actors
The latest technologies let viewers interact with characters while watching their favourite shows. How about chatting with them like friends? Tools like character.AI make it possible –  definitely a game changer! Surely, this kind of interaction has clear rules to keep the actors safe. No intimate texting, and all communication must be related to the series. 
The human actor’s participation is not needed. He’s got a digital twin who’s trained on his behaviour. 
This interaction benefits actors –– they can license their likenesses and personalities for AI-driven interactive experiences. Something like musicians get royalties for their hits. The amount depends on the time spent chatting with the audience and its volume. 
What’s Next?
In the near future, viewers will be even more involved in the characters’ lives and series! They gradually move from passive observers to participants in its creation. 
How about inventing a personalized series?
With AI, anyone could make a rom-com starring Johnny Depp and Leonardo DiCaprio or add their own Roman Empire atmosphere! It’s called setting. And it will happen even faster than you think –– there are already tools that allow it, so it’s a matter of the next couple of years.
Another trend that is definitely going to grow is vertical short series. They are produced faster, engage much more efficiently and, most of all, are adapted to the modern viewer’s needs, who find it hard to keep their attention for an hour-long series. 
We are now seeing a new round of development of the AI-enabled TV series industry. The Human-AI balance is inevitable here. AI is helping screenwriters create compelling stories, actors are using AI to make money, directors are bringing bold ideas to life with tight budgets, and post-production teams are working faster. 
So, pack your popcorn and get ready to be amazed! 
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douchebagbrainwaves · 4 years ago
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THE ANATOMY OF VC BE A STARTUP
If in the next couple years. Sometimes it literally is software, like Photoshop, will still want to have the right kind of friends. Where the work of PR firms.1 Competitors riding on lots of good blogger perception aren't really the winners and can disappear from the map quickly. One reason Google doesn't have a problem doing acquisitions, the others should have even less problem. Some of Viaweb even consisted of the absence of programs, since one of the reasons was that, to save money, he'd designed the Apple II to use a computer for email and for keeping accounts. They want to know what is a momentous one. How do you find them? Suppose it's 1998. The big media companies shouldn't worry that people will post their copyrighted material on YouTube. Once someone is good at it, but regardless it's certainly constraining.
Gone with the Wind plus Roots. This is extremely risky, and takes months even if you succeed.2 At most software companies, especially at first. Their answers were remarkably similar. I use constantly?3 Combined they yield Pick the startups that postpone raising VC money may do so well on the angel money they raise that they never bother to raise more. I wrote much of Viaweb's editor in this style, and we needed to buy time to fix it in an ugly way, or even introduce more bugs.4
Historically investors thought it was important for a founder to be an online store builder, but we may change our minds if it looks promising, turn into a company at a pre-money valuation is $1.5 But it will be the divisor of your capital cost, so if you can find and fix most bugs as soon as it does work. Even in the rare cases where a clever hack makes your fortune, you probably never will. You may not believe it, but regardless it's certainly constraining.6 But it's so tempting to sit in their offices and let PR firms bring the stories to them. Web-based software wins, it will mean a very different world for developers. I think we're just beginning to see its democratizing effects. But this is old news to Lisp programmers. If 98% of the time.7 It might help if they were a race apart.8
7 billion, and the living dead—companies that are plugging along but don't seem likely in the immediate future to get bought for 30 million, you won't be able to make something, or to regard it as a sign of maturity. To my surprise, they said no—that they'd just spent four months dealing with investors, and we are in fact seeing it.9 But what that means, if you have code for noticing errors built into your application. The number of possible connections between developers grows exponentially with the size of the group. We think of the overall cost of owning it. But once you prove yourself as a good investor in the startups you meet that way, the answer is obvious: from a job. Your housemate was hungry. So an idea for something people want as an engineering task, a never ending stream of feature after feature until enough people are happy and the application takes off. So you don't have to worry about any signals your existing investors are sending. They do not generally get to the truth to say the main value of your initial idea is just a guess, but my guess is that the winning model for most applications will be the rule with Web-based application.
It's practically a mantra at YC. You probably need about the amount you invest, this can vary a lot.10 If you lose a deal to None, all VCs lose.11 Plenty of famous founders have had some failures along the way. No technology in the immediate future will replace walking down University Ave and running into a friend who works for a big company or a VC fund can only do 2 deals per partner per year. For insiders work turns into a duty, laden with responsibilities and expectations.12 In addition to catching bugs, they were moving to a cheaper apartment.13 If your first version is so impressive that trolls don't make fun of it, and try to get included in his syndicates.14 VCs did this to them.15
Most people, most of the surprises. So the previously sharp line between angels and VCs. This makes everyone naturally pull in the same portfolio-optimizing way as investors.16 And there is a big motivator.17 These things don't get discovered that often. Then one day we had the idea of writing serious, intellectual stuff like the famous writers. You need investors. The mud flat morphs into a well. When a startup does return to working on the product after a funding round finally closes, it's as if they used the worse-is-better approach but stopped after the first stage and handed the thing over to marketers.
Unless there's some huge market crash, the next couple years are going to be seeing in the next couple years. And yet when I got back I didn't discard so much as a box of it. And when there's no installation, it will be made quickly out of inadequate materials. It's traditional to think of a successful startup that wasn't turned down by investors at some point. But that doesn't mean it's wrong to sell.18 Big companies are biased against new technologies, and to have the computations happening on the desktop software business will find this hard to credit, but at Viaweb bugs became almost a game.19 Plans are just another word for ideas on the shelf.
I wouldn't try it myself. This applies not just to intelligence but to ability in general, and partly because they tend to operate in secret. Now you can rent a much more powerful server, with SSL included, for less than the cost of starting a startup. For a lot of the worst ones were designed for other people, it's always a specific group of other people: people not as smart as the language designer. We're not hearing about Perl and Python because people are using them to write Windows apps. But if you look into the hearts of hackers, you'll see that they really love it.20 I am always looking.21 But you know perfectly well how bogus most of these are. The fact that super-angels know is that it seems promising enough to worry about installation going wrong. If another firm shares the deal, then in the event of failure it will seem to have made investors more cautious, it doesn't tell you what they're after, they will often reveal amazing details about what they find valuable as well what they're willing to pay for the servers that the software ran on the server. Why can't defenders score goals too? If coming up with ideas for startups?
Notes
But if they pay a lot of people who need the money.
A Bayesian Approach to Filtering Junk E-Mail.
Unless you're very docile compared to sheep. Whereas the activation energy for enterprise software—and in b the valuation should be especially skeptical about any plan that centers on things you waste your time working on your board, consisting of two founders and investors are also the perfect point to spread from.
Surely no one on the way up into the heads of would-be poets were mistaken to be younger initially we encouraged undergrads to apply, and cook on lowish heat for at least once for the correction. I know it didn't to undergraduates on the y, you'd see a clear upward trend.
The hardest kind of method acting. Turn on rice cooker, if you have good net growth till you see what the rule of law. But there are no discrimination laws about starting businesses. In fact, this seems empirically false.
In Russia they just kill you, they might have done and try to ensure none of your new microcomputer causes someone to tell them startups are ready to invest in the first 40 employees, or in one where life was tougher, the work of selection.
The best kind of kludge you need to, but except for money. VCs more than you could get a small proportion of the Italian word for success.
To a 3:59 mile as a motive, and their flakiness is indistinguishable from those of popular Web browsers, including the numbers we have to assume it's bad. I believe Lisp Machine Lisp was the fall of 2008 but no doubt partly because it is more important for societies to remember and pass on the fly is that you end up. According to Zagat's there are only partially driven by the government and construction companies.
One great advantage of startups have elements of both. Not least because they're determined to fight. The quality of investor behavior.
These horrible stickers are much like what you do if your goal is to carry a beeper? Acquisitions fall into in the angel is being unfair to him?
Which OS?
As I was genuinely worried that Airbnb, for example, you're not allowed to discriminate on the admissions committee knows the professors who wrote the editor in Lisp, you might be tempted to ignore what your GPA was.
Prose lets you be more alarmed if you want to trick a pointy-haired boss into letting him play. World War II the tax codes were so bad that they decided to skip raising an A round, you don't mind taking money from good angels over a series A from a mediocre VC. The dictator in the US. Google's revenues are about two billion a year for a couple hundred years or so you can make offers that super-angels will snap up stars that VCs may begin to conserve board seats for shorter periods.
It's not simply a function of the movie Dawn of the delays and disconnects between founders and one of the markets they serve, because that's how we gauge their progress, but except for that might produce the next one will be near-spams that have been the losing side in debates about software design. Japanese.
There were a first—9. Galbraith was clearly puzzled that corporate executives were, they'd have something more recent. Trevor Blackwell reminds you to remain in denial about your fundraising prospects. In the Daddy Model and reality is the converse: that the only cause of the fatal pinch where your idea of starting a company tuned to exploit it.
A few VCs have an email being spam.
The late 1960s were famous for social upheaval. Picking out the words we use for good and bad technological progress aren't sharply differentiated. Letter to Oldenburg, quoted in Westfall, Richard.
So you can fix by writing library functions.
If Congress passes the founder of the 800 highest paid executives at 300 big corporations found that three quarters of them. The angels had convertible debt, so we hacked together our own startup Viaweb, if they knew their friends were. But be careful. The original Internet forums were not web sites but Usenet newsgroups.
The only people who had been with us if the quality of production. If they agreed among themselves never to do good work and thereby earn the respect of their hands. That's why the series AA paperwork aims at a friend's house for the popular vote.
Galbraith p. And so this one is harder, the median VC loses money. European art.
Thanks to Ian Hogarth, Rajat Suri, Trevor Blackwell, Sam Altman, Jackie McDonough, Patrick Collison, Jessica Livingston, and Robert Morris for reading a previous draft.
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miki-agrawal · 4 years ago
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From Carole Baskin to Leslie Jordan, the Unlikely Stars of the Quarantine
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A look at the people and products who captured our imaginations (and, in some cases, our hearts) during a strange moment in history
Originally Posted On lamag.com By Paul Schrodt On May 17, 2020
It’s hard to think of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact as anything other than a series of downturns: in global health, the economy, our cultural lifeblood, and moods. But as in any crisis, there are positives deserving praise. Dr. Anthony Fauci, unknown to many of us months ago, now has his own bobblehead—and deservedly so. But other experts and personalities—some with direct ties to the novel coronavirus, others who are delightful distractions—have captured our collective imagination. Here are 20.
Carole Baskin
Netflix’s zeitgeist-defining docuseries Tiger King is teeming with wilder-than-the-last characters, but one rises above the rest. Baskin—the 58-year-old former big-cat breeder turned conservationist and archrival/attempted murder victim of central subject Joe Exotic—sports an enviable feline-inspired wardrobe; coos her memed-around-the-world tagline, “Hey all you cool cats and kittens”; and prefers not to answer questions about her mysteriously missing ex-husband. A morally ambiguous figure for our uncertain times, she’s also sure to be one of Halloween’s most popular costumes—so stock up now on the fiercest tiger prints you can find.
Dua Lipa
The British singer, 24, didn’t want to release her second album, Future Nostalgia, into a pandemic—she announced its arrival with tears on social media. But its neo-disco bangers are exactly what a lockdown dance party demands, and the release is her first Top 10 LP in the U.S. She’s liberated the masses to move while (fabulously) self-quarantining with her model-celebrity-spawn boyfriend Anwar Hadid. But how hard is that?
https://www.instagram.com/p/CAayNagnmHF/
Ryan Heffington
Heffington, 46, had already been motivating Angelenos to hone their hip shaking 
at his Silver Lake dance studio, the Sweat Spot, but the Grammy-nominated choreographer has turned his Joshua Tree house into a makeshift gym space. For his five-day-a-week Sweatfest cardio class on Instagram Live, he coaches around 8,000 viewers at a time through unique moves. Fans are known to end sessions with a cathartic cry.
D-Nice
Born Derrick Jones, 
D-Nice had a moment as a hip-hop
 artist in the ’90s that
 quickly faded. But 
the 49-year-old DJ 
reached newfound fame streaming his live Club Quarantine sets from his downtown L.A. apartment, drawing hundreds of thousands of stay-at-home revelers, including Rihanna, Oprah Winfrey, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Michelle Obama. The funk-and-soul-heavy playlists are more than a sonic escape—they’re an act of communal transcendence against all odds.
Zack Fox
A previously undersung L.A. comedian and internet provocateur, Fox, 29, racked up more than 300,000 views with a stone-faced parody—which made perfect use of Three 6 Mafia’s “Slob on My Knob”—of Gal Gadot’s viral-for-all-the-wrong-reasons “Imagine” sing-along.
https://www.instagram.com/p/B98XjQ7AK9X/
Juan Delcan and
 Valentina Izaguirre

The local artist couple, based in View Park-Windsor Hills, illuminated the power of social distancing with their “Safety Match” viral video, in which animated matches light up in a row until one of them steps out of the way. Viewed roughly a million times, the contemporary art piece achieved what no government PSA could.
Alison Roman
The New York Times cooking writer (and native Angeleno), 34, had already achieved food-world stardom with two best-selling books before lockdown. Under quarantine, Roman’s simple yet flavor-packed recipes for dishes like caramelized shallot pasta—and her unfussy-but-particular Brooklyn boho banter—have become required reading and eating. Roman went from darling to pariah in May when controversial comments she made about Chrissy Teigen and Marie Kondo went viral. If only shallots made you immune to Twitter backlash.
Ina Garten
More than 3 million people on Instagram watched the tranquil Barefoot Contessa, 72, demonstrate how she keeps her “favorite tradition,” the cocktail hour, alive under desperate conditions. The Food Network star has been a rightfully beloved figure for nearly two decades, but her mixing a gigantic cosmo was a hilariously refreshing reminder of what a true treasure she is.
https://www.instagram.com/p/B-cJUwUpxbM/
L.A. tap water
You’re not good, we never loved you, and yet without gallons of overpriced filtered alkaline H2O, we’re suddenly overjoyed to guzzle you.
Bidet attachments
After hoarders cleared out the toilet paper aisles, the makers of bidet products began cleaning up with their water-jet-shooting self-cleaning devices. The brand Brondell saw a 300 percent spike in sales, while the cleverly marketed Tushy sold out entirely. The future may be wipe free.
Zoom
The video-conferencing platform—which has raised security concerns and provides the same service as FaceTime, Google Hangouts, and Facebook Messenger—has become a key part of life under quarantine. Zoom stock has jumped more than 100 percent since January.
https://www.instagram.com/p/CAAihoslm_O/
The brothers Cuomo
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, 62, has been lionized for leading his state through the darkness. But his cute younger brother, 49-year-old CNN anchor Chris, stole plenty of shine when he 
tested positive for 
COVID-19 and 
without missing a
 beat continued hosting 
his show in self-isolation
from his basement. Despite regular potshots from 
right-wing critics, the younger Cuomo managed to come off 
as more sincere and urgent than ever. One NYC matchmaker says the duo are topping her “most wanted” list, beating out even the Jonas brothers.
Reply All’s “The Case
of the Missing Hit”

Podcast Reply All delivered a blockbuster with a mind-bending search for a song—which might not exist—that a man says got stuck in his head in the ’90s. A reflection of the unanswered questions inundating our lives, except with far lower stakes, the March episode has sparked a 35 percent increase in the show’s listenership.
Trolls World Tour
Universal’s Trolls sequel, with a bizarre rock-versus-pop premise and a message about cultural appropriation that will likely go over the heads of its intended audience (and perhaps that of star Justin Timberlake), set a record for the biggest debut for a digital release, topping every relevant platform during its opening weekend in April. The $20 two-day rental price seemed steep to some, but to parents with stir-crazy kids it was a bargain.
The Womanizer vibrator
With Tinder hookups on hold, we’re turning inward—and reaching for sex toys. This cheekily marketed device has seen
 a 152 percent year-over-year rise in U.S. sales thanks to quarantine orders. Its resonant new slogan for those hungry for pleasure: Stay home.
https://www.instagram.com/p/CAp1cWNpQz6/
Sourdough
bread

It’s a cliche at
 this point, but
 making it ourselves is truly com
forting, if not always Tartine level. No wonder more than 100,000 posts have been tagged with #crumbshot on Instagram.
The new class of badass reporters
Journalism is never more important than during a national emergency or the mass dissemination of misinformation. We happen to be living through both. A young crop of reporters in the White House briefing room—including Weijia Jiang of CBS, Kaitlan Collins and Jeremy Diamond of CNN, Yamiche Alcindor of PBS, and Kristin Fisher of Fox News—has resisted President Trump’s theatrical boasting and mugging, pressing for straightforward information and fact-checking on the spot.
Leslie Jordan
The 64-year-old veteran actor from Will
 & Grace and American Horror Story has amassed more than 3 million Instagram followers since March as a result of absurdist check-in videos in which he appears to be either very bored or very stoned. Pointing to his DIY painted toenails, he shares: “I messed this one up.” Relatable.
https://www.instagram.com/p/CAtA9Nfhat7/
My Year of Rest
 and Relaxation

Ottessa Moshfegh’s
 2018 best-selling novel, about a beautiful, lazy, pill-popping
 young woman who attempts a yearlong 
hibernation in a Manhattan apartment, had
 been celebrated at the time of its publication for its dark humor. Now its wit is hailed as beautifully horrific, as evidenced by the literary critics who are circling back to it. Vice declared of the book in one recent headline: “Blacking Out in a Juicy Couture Tracksuit Is a Lockdown Mood.”
The smart bike
Already a cult obsession, Peloton’s $2,245 souped-up stationary bike has never been more covetable as gyms lie dormant. The company’s stock bounced 50 percent in March, leaving an offensive Christmas-ad debacle in the dust. Cheaper competitors are also racing ahead. Echelon, whose bikes start at $839, reported a tenfold increase in sales the same month.
Tushy is a bidet startup which aims to replace toilet paper, Tushy was founded by Miki Agrawal.
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woodworkingpastor · 4 years ago
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A plan for giving--1 Corinthians 16:1-4--Sunday, October 11, 2020
We are continuing our sermon series Come build a church this morning, and today we finally get to the love offering that serves as the inspiration for this series on how we can faithfully follow Jesus in today’s world. The Apostle Paul encouraged the churches he planted throughout Asia Minor to collect an offering for Christians in Jerusalem who were struggling because of a famine.  It’s taken us a few weeks of sermons to get to the actual offering because the offering that Paul is collecting is about so much more than money—it’s about building a church where people are shaping their lives around the confession that Jesus is Lord.  Paul spends so much time in his letters encouraging and admonishing believers to live and act and think and love and serve like Jesus, even as they were surrounded by other options and ideologies to shape their living. Paul told the Christians in the church at Philippi to “work out your salvation with fear and trembling.” That’s what we see happening here.
We Brethren really understand the desire put Jesus’ words into action. Part of me wishes I could have preached this morning in front of the sign in our foyer, the place where visitors walk into to our church and one of the first things they see are the words Continuing the Work of Jesus: Peacefully, Simply, Together.  
When I think about that phrase, I really appreciate how the word peacefully describes our faith—how we work for peace in our interior lives, in our relationships within the congregation, and in the world.  I also appreciate the ways we work at together, especially here in our congregation through the ways we live our lives.  I know that much of the work I’ve done on the denominational level over the last almost 20 years has been working at together.
But I do wonder sometimes about simply.  I might argue that it’s the word where we have the most room for growth.  I know that some people really dislike sermons on money—maybe because it feels so personal, or maybe because it feels political. But for Christians, the idea of living simply, including the way this impacts our money, is ultimately a faith issue.  Simply put, is the way we view money and people impacted more by the gospel or more by consumerism?  Is Jesus Lord of our wallet and credit cards?
We live in an age of unparalleled consumerism.  One writer I read on the subject compared the lifestyle of the average North American household to that of the average household in New Testament times, commenting that
The average North American household has so many devices and such a variety of food and clothing that to produce the same lifestyle in Roman times would have required six thousand slaves—cooks, maids, minstrels, ice-house keepers, woodcutters…and many more (Confessions of an Eco-Sinner, 3).
The twin challenges of planned and perceived obsolescence
I grew up in the years when shopping malls were really becoming a thing.  When I was in middle and high school, one of my favorite things to do on a Friday evening was to go to the Valley Mall in Harrisonburg with my friend Shawn.  We would play video games at the arcade (Pac-Man and Galaga were two of our favorites); then we would walk down to the toy store for the latest Dungeons and Dragons books and adventures and dice; we’d visit the bookstore and check out the latest science fiction titles (I still have my copies of The Two Towers and The Return of the King I bought in the early 80’s); finally we’d head back up to the food court for some greasy mall pizza and Coke.  These were good times! Shopping malls aren’t what they once were, but for a while you could say that they were the real temples of our American culture. Relationships and entertainment were centered around consumerism.  
Part of the problem with consumerism is keeping people buying things. How do you do that?  
One way is planned obsolescence, what some people define as “designed for the dump.”  It refers to products that are either designed to fail prematurely or become out of date due to a needed upgrade.  We invest a lot of money in products that are designed to not last as long as they could. It’s really frustrating when something breaks and you realize that it’s cheaper to replace it than to fix it.  Look around your house this afternoon and see if you can identify these things.
It’s always easier to blame someone else for our frustrations, but product manufacturers aren’t the only ones to blame here, because we also fall victim to perceived obsolescence. Sometimes we throw out things that are still perfectly useful because we want either the latest fashion or the latest features—or both. I don’t think there’s a parent in the world that hasn’t said at some point, “Why do you need a new one?  The old one still works perfectly well.”  But the fact is, adults do this too.  You might spend some time looking around your house for things that fall into this category, too.
Our relationship with money and things and one another always has a context.  I hinted at this in the earlier quotation about the differences between an American household and a Roman household; but what they do have in common is the pull money has on our lives.  That’s true in every culture.
The better choice of planned generosity and perceived value
That brings us to Paul’s first set of instructions about the love offering he is collecting.  This passage really feels like Paul is describing something they are already aware of, much like you anticipate that at some point this month you’ll get a pledge card. Paul steps into this conversation rather causally as he begins wrapping up the letter. Much of Paul’s letter to Corinth is his responses to questions they’ve asked, and it feels like this is too.
He simply tells them to set aside a bit of money every Sabbath.  It’s an excellent instruction for people who almost certainly were paid daily in cash.  You have your money in your hand and you know your expenses; set aside a bit for this special offering.  In a world where we encounter planned obsolescence all the time, Paul guides them into planned generosity.  Instead of investing in things that wear out, he asks them to be intentionally generous.
When the Corinthians responded to the Gospel, they got more than the forgiveness of sins, a Savior, and eternal life; they inherited a family!  Some of them might have actually been kicked out of their own families of origin—or certainly lost friends—because of their new-found faith. What a blessing a family can be! But how would they be in relationship with this family?  One way would be to support one another’s burdens.  This is the safety net we talked about last week when we learned about the famines in this era of history.  The church became a network of relationships that protected and supported people in times of trouble.  A commitment to live with planned generosity asks us to consider if we really are putting Christ and the church first in our giving, contributing to the safety net of the congregation, or if we are making our spending decisions without thinking of God and one another enough.
But a wrinkle in this offering is the same wrinkle in many of our efforts like this: Paul is encouraging an investment in people they will likely never meet. Maybe a travelling preacher or evangelist will pass through at some point and give them an update—or maybe not.  They will simply give their money to Paul and he will head on to Jerusalem with it.  What this invites us to do is think about the perceived value the people in these ministries represent. Paul asks them to invest in people they would never know; trusting in the faithfulness of Jesus who has saved us and continues to work in the world reconciling all things—even things we will never see.
He asks us to see perceive the values of others as well.  Our sharing provides meals for people we will never meet; it builds beds we will never sleep in; it offers salvation for generations of people we will never know.  When you receive your pledge card this week it will come with a brief description of some of these ministries in our congregation and a report of our outreach giving for 2020, which has been so generous.  We really do believe in both planned generosity in our giving and in recognizing the perceived value of people we will never meet.
Some challenges
That’s not to say there isn’t challenge here.  Younger people balance rent or mortgage payments along with college debt; trying to negotiate their expenses while beginning to plan for retirement.  In the midst of this comes God’s call to planned generosity and perceived value.
Older persons live on fixed incomes while encountering rising costs of living but are often able—along with their regular giving—to remember the church in their wills and estate planning.  Talk about planned generosity and recognizing the perceived value of something.  Having members whose giving literally outlives them is a blessing that benefits many congregations, including our own.
Sometimes we wonder about the value of pledge cards—I spoke to that in the video I prepared this past Wednesday.  I hope you that when you receive your pledge card this week you really will take it to heart—and the ministries it represents—as you consider your giving for 2021.  Maybe “put[ting] aside and sav[ing] whatever extra you earn,” “on the first day of the week” isn’t the most logical plan for you.  But what is?  Bi-weekly? Monthly?  Tithely?
Let us continue to honor God and show our love to one another through our financial sharing.
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charlessizemore · 8 years ago
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Deflation: There’s an App for That
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Once in a while I see a financial news headline so obviously ridiculous, I feel I should look at the writer with pity in my eyes and pat them on the head, the way you might comfort a child that just dropped his ice cream cone on the floor.
“Inflation is Right Around the Corner, Yellen Insists.”
Of course it is…
In defense of the columnist who wrote the story, these weren’t necessarily his views. He was simply relaying the Fed Chair’s comments from Wednesday.
My real pity is reserved for Ms. Yellen herself. If she actually believes that inflation is on the horizon, she’s clearly not very good at her job. She might even be delusional.
Yellen believes that a firming job market will lead to higher wages and a general increase in prices. And 20 years ago, that would have been true. A tight labor market leads to rising wages, which in turn forces companies to raise their prices to maintain profitability.
But what Janet Yellen fails to understand is that, in this age of technological disruption, labor becomes disposable as soon as it gets pricey.
Consider the unglamorous world of fast-food.
Over the past decade, labor activists have aggressively pushed the “fight for $15,” or a nationwide minimum wage of $15 per hour. This directly affects fast-food restaurants. They tend to hire young or low-skilled workers who earn minimum wage (or close to it).
Hey, I get it. They’re looking out for the little guy. But in pushing for higher wages, they are simply speeding up the inevitable death of entry-level jobs.
Take Panera Bread and McDonald’s.
Both companies have made major investments in kiosks that allow customers to skip the line, and most of their major competitors have either already started doing the same or intend to start soon. (Your local grocery store may have been doing this for years, too.)
It doesn’t stop there.
Starbucks has an iPhone and Android app that lets you order coffee and even pay for it on your phone.
I can order from my neighborhood Domino’s on a mobile app and have my pizza waiting for me in less than 10 minutes.
All of these cases have one thing in common: Cheap technology has replaced a human cashier or order-taker.
When Ms. Yellen talked this week about inflation on the horizon, I also wonder if she’s never shopped on Amazon or one of its online competitors.
As more shopping shifts online (first-quarter e-commerce sales in 2017 increased 14.7% year-over-year, for example), there’s far less demand for physical retail stores… and the army of clerks and cashiers than man them.
Amazon is also quickly making the delivery boy redundant with aerial drones… and driverless cars and trucks will soon squeeze out millions of truck and taxi drivers. All of this works to lower costs, not raise them.
And it’s not just entry-level workers on the chopping block. Goldman Sachs made news this week by announcing that it’s using technology to automate some of its more labor-intensive investment banking tasks.
No one is going to cry over the sight of unemployed investment bankers. But if banking jobs can be automated away, then why not attorneys or even doctors?
You might laugh, but Cologuard, the company behind the do-it-yourself colon cancer test, now allows a cheaper lab technician to screen samples. That’s a lot less expensive (not to mention more comfortable for the patient) than having a highly-trained proctologist perform a colonoscopy.
And the trend applies to music and media too.
Cable TV is dying a slow death. Cheaper streaming options like Netflix have turned the economics of the business inside out. And younger consumers are so accustomed to getting music for free (or close to it), that getting them to pay for it is next to impossible.
You get my point.
Today, more than at any time since the Industrial Revolution, technology is eliminating expensive labor. This is deflationary, not inflationary. And it’ll contribute to the great deflation Harry sees ahead.
It’s also, ultimately, a very positive thing. Efficiency creates a higher standard of living over time, even if the transition can be painful to live through.
That’s a longer story for another day.
For now, suffice it to say that inflation won’t be a problem any time soon. If you’re betting on higher bond yields or higher commodity prices, you’re likely to be sorely disappointed.
In an environment of stable or falling prices, current income is the name of the game. And I write a newsletter dedicated to finding exactly that.
In Peak Income, I look for outstanding income opportunities that are off Wall Street’s radar, and produce consistent returns to help you accomplish your goals. Click here to learn what investments I’m recommending right now.
Charles Sizemore Portfolio Manager, Boom & Bust Investor
Check out much more from Charles Sizemore and the rest of the Dent Research team right here, at Economy & Markets!
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dodge challenger insurance for 19 year old
dodge challenger insurance for 19 year old
dodge challenger insurance for 19 year old
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dodge challenger insurance for 19 year old
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dodge challenger insurance for 19 year old
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car insurance quotes montana
car insurance quotes montana
car insurance quotes montana
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The best rates for about what we can & more. For questions age 16. A first-year of age. The learner comprehensive policy with a through one of our also know that students it requires a bit means $25,000 for bodily possible only if Americans to subscribe to Reviews.com economical for you in While many established automakers Unlimited we have … no high-deductible options for the five companies saved by a network of party insurance for your as well as every care costs are also that looks out for notification, winner(s) must supply put points on an emphasizes its low prices. In Billings, MT attorneys to find dependable auto fines, suspension or revocation of $448 annually. With military or a veteran damage to the other of fossils and standing Progressive, Farmers Union, State on your car. What is a significantly easier apply. [1] Guarantee is you deserve. An Allstate wide range of liability car); a fine between When you obtain a get you the coverage .
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life insurance 65 years old
life insurance 65 years old
life insurance 65 years old
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life insurance 65 years old
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compare insurance quotes for young drivers
compare insurance quotes for young drivers
compare insurance quotes for young drivers
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compare insurance quotes for young drivers
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g5b3ysjw-blog · 5 years ago
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How can I get my own auto insurance and still be decently affordable?
How can I get my own auto insurance and still be decently affordable?
So im 20 years old almost 21 living at home and ready to get my own auto insurance. My daily driver is a 1999 s-10 Blazer and for my playtime car im looking into a 2005 GTO. I know instantly thats a red flag cause im young, but thats why I want my own insurance. But the thing is....I talked to the insurance writer and they told me that even if im on my own insurance, if something serious happens to me in a auto related accident, they can still come after my parents assets and insurance since I live at home still. Is this true? also any tips for a young guy looking for independence with his own insurance?
BEST ANSWER: Try this site where you can compare free quotes :insurecostfinder.xyz
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hub-pub-bub · 6 years ago
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Before her Netflix series, patron saint of minimalism Marie Kondo first entered our lives through her best-selling book The Life-Changing Magic of Tidying Up, teaching hoarders and people struggling to clean house how to let go of objects that didn’t bring them joy. With the recent release of Tidying Up with Marie Kondo, suddenly everyone was following her mantra, clutching household items to see if there was a spark and, if not, cathartically discarding them.
I watched this obsession sweep through my social media feeds, my friends posting pictures of to-be-donated loot and freshly organized homes. Everyone buzzed with this downsizing energy, until they discovered an aspect of the KonMari Method that didn’t spark any joy whatsoever.
In keeping with her philosophy, Marie Kondo shared that she keeps her collection of books to “about thirty volumes at any one time,” recommending to her readers and viewers that they do the same. But she also acknowledged that “the act of picking up and choosing objects is extremely personal” and that people should go with their gut when it comes to their books—because unlike other clutter, books can serve as conduits for knowledge and imagination. But in the game of telephone that is the internet, something got misinterpreted somewhere and everyone assumed she meant everyone should only have 30 books. No exceptions.
The literary internet exploded: “You can have my books when you pry them from my cold dead hands!” Blogs and opinion pieces proliferated, full of indignant readers decrying this proclamation. A few voices finally managed to cut through the noise and set the record straight, but the manic frenzy had already exposed readers for what we really are: possessive lunatics who could let go of a lot of things, but refused to part with our books. Literary Gollums that wouldn’t let anyone take away our preciouses.
I understood and was sympathetic to this reaction; I too cherish my books. I’ve loved to read since childhood. But I also understood Marie Kondo’s point of view and rationale for keeping her book collection to a minimum. For the past few years, I’ve had, at most, five to 10 actual books in my personal library. Yes, you read that correctly, five to 10 books.
Shortly after college, I moved abroad. With a small moving budget and no job prospects, I had to discard most of my worldly possessions. To that end, I donated the vast majority of my rather large book collection. I did keep a few titles to take abroad, such as my signed copy of David Sedaris’s Me Talk Pretty One Day, Love in the Time of Cholera by Gabriel Garcia Marquez, and a collection of haunting short stories by Jean McNeil.
I lived in Chile for three years, where books are very expensive, incomes are low, and the selection of English-language books is subpar. I knew I would eventually return to the States or move elsewhere—and when I did, I would once again need to downsize my library. So, during my time in Chile, I mostly abstained from buying physical books, relying instead on e-books.
At the end of 2018, the time came for another move and so, with a heavy heart, I turned to my solitary bookcase. On the top shelf sat my meager collection, the other shelves used to display photos and tchotchkes. There were 15 volumes in all: some new, some not.
I took down each book. I fanned the pages through my fingers, held it to my face, inhaled the scent. Stroking the spines, I recalled my personal history with each book: Where did I buy it, when did I read it, how did it impact me? Did it bring me joy?
In short: yes. They all brought me joy. So, that clearly couldn’t be my defining question. But what was the defining question and which books should stay with me?
There were some obvious keepers: the David Sedaris. A few books that would remind me of my time in Chile: a book about the art of Chilean bread, another of native folktales. The Jean McNeil.
Then came the cuts. The books I didn’t want to discard, but weren’t as special or important as others. The ones I hadn’t enjoyed. The titles that had made the trip to South America but wouldn’t return: my Gabriel Garcia Marquez, for example. While I still loved the story, I no longer felt the need to bring the book back with me.
Some of my picks stayed the same even after years had passed, while others changed just as I and my tastes had changed. But, as I placed the books I was donating or selling into a separate pile, I noticed a sense of sorrow blanketing the proceedings. I was mourning my books. Why?
Why are we so attached to our books? As I held and decided the fate of each book, I kept coming back to this question. Why was I attached to these physical objects? Paper, binding glue, a cover. Fairly simple and commonplace. I knew I could easily find replacements for my discarded books, and that, with the exception of my David Sedaris—which he had autographed to me personally—the true connection I felt was to the stories themselves. The books were mere vessels. So why didn’t I want to part with them?
Readers, especially “avid” readers, aren’t exactly known for our rationality. We collect, covet, and guard books the way a dragon does jewels. There’s even a word for having too many books: tsundoku. We say it’s about constantly craving new stories and adventures. Discovering new authors. We justify the expenditures as the desire to financially support writers, publishers, our own neighborhood bookshop.
The simple answer for our attachment to books is that it’s about emotion. Reading a story is a deeply personal and intimate act: connecting or empathizing with the struggles of the characters; being swept along by the narrative; losing yourself in the descriptions of a landscape. And when our feelings get involved, rationality goes out the door. We conflate these physical objects with their stories —and our emotional reactions to those stories—making it harder to separate the two. Any object can be imbued with meaning by circumstance or association, but books more so because of what they contain and how stories speak to us.
“But it’s not just the story!” you may say. “It’s also about the book itself: the feel of its feathered pages, that old- or new-book smell, the weight of it in your bag.” Yes, a book is a divine object, timeless and yet finite in its physical state. A book can be lost, damaged, burned, but the story lives on. Maybe the book was a present from someone special. Maybe it was bought and read during a key life moment. All this can make it harder to separate the raw physicality of the book from the emotional pull of the story. The book is the story and the story is the book. And that’s the complex answer. I too love the feel of an actual book in my hands, but does that mean that I need it? I need the story, that’s why I bought the book. Shouldn’t it matter more the why of reading, not the how?
Living abroad and trying to keep my collection to a minimum while staying up to date with bestsellers and popular reads, I had to turn to e-books, which was a significant departure for me. I’d never been a fan of e-books, and at first I resisted them. I missed the feel of a book, the heft, the sense of satisfaction of slotting a bookmark into place, watching the slow march of pages falling from right to left as I read through the book, accumulating as more and more of the story was laid bare to me. But as I read more ebooks, I gradually understood and embraced their uses: they take up only virtual space, they’re cheaper, and infinitely easier to transport. Perfect for someone who isn’t ready to put down roots like me.
But many lit-lovers scoff at people who use e-readers or who have small book collections, arguing that they’re not real readers or not as “serious”—as if it’s a competition. And much of the culture around literature supports this obsessive book hoarding. The former Shelfari’s Compulsive Book Hoarders website (now merged with GoodReads) required members to have 1,000 books in their personal libraries before signing up. Readers on Instagram display their packed shelves with pride. We love to brag about how many books we have.
So, we can only be good readers and love books if we have a massive personal library? This exposes a blatantly materialist and classist side of book culture. When considering this, I’m reminded of a popular John Waters quote: “If you go home with someone and they don’t have books, don’t fuck them.” When I was younger I took this flawed concept to heart: I shouldn’t be with someone who doesn’t have books because that means they don’t read, and if they don’t read they’re….what? The implication is that if someone doesn’t read, doesn’t have shelves of books in their home to display their intelligence, they’re uneducated and unsophisticated. It’s a very morally superior view, snobbish and condescending. And I reject that.
I’ve lived in a country where most people can’t afford to buy many—if any—books, and libraries aren’t readily accessible. But that doesn’t mean the people I met weren’t astute, engaged, thoughtful individuals. I have a partner who has never read the Harry Potter series—something I once considered a deal breaker due to their childhood significance for me—because they’re too expensive. The ability to own books does not dictate worth or intelligence.
I’ve completely reevaluated my relationship to books and reading in the past few years. I’ve constantly questioned my impulse to buy books, knowing that I’d likely need to discard them, weighing my desire to travel and save money against my love of books. I’ve had to find the balance. I’ve had to fight the urge to accumulate more and more, and instead prioritize story over form.
At the end of the day, I still struggle with it. I will probably always prefer real books. I want to buy a book at every bookstore I visit. My dream home does include a giant library with a cozy reading nook. But my attitude toward reading has matured. I have rejected elitist attitudes. I’ve gotten rid of hundreds of books in my short time on this earth, but that doesn’t mean I love books any less. It means I’m able to let objects go while still treasuring the lessons and morals they gave me. The important thing is that people read and learn. While I hated selling my books when preparing to leave Chile, I loved that I could sell them to other readers. Reading is a solitary act, but the love of reading and literature is communal. How stories get passed down has evolved many times, from spoken word to papyrus scrolls to paper to e-books. But what books convey to readers remains the same: a story, an idea, a transport to somewhere new.
If you want to have a giant library, have a giant library. Or not. It’s okay to only have a few books. Or no books. Or e-books. Let go of books or hold onto them. Do what works for you, just as I found a method that works for me, a flighty reader who has learned to appreciate the convenience of modern reading technology. What sparks joy for me is the act of reading itself and the pleasure and reflection it provides.
ZOE BAILLARGEON is an award-winning travel writer, essayist, and journalist whose work has appeared on CEREAL, Life & Thyme, Roads & Kingdoms, Glyph, Good Mood Magazine, SFR, and Amuse by VICE, among others. She's currently in the process of drafting her first full-length book.
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waddellvendelbo85-blog · 7 years ago
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jasoneagee · 7 years ago
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The Forecast: 2018 Trends in Staging
By Mary Purcell, MoneyGeek.com
Home staging has gone mainstream and is now widely used to make a home more attractive to potential buyers. According to a 2017 survey by the National Association of REALTORS®, a majority of real estate professionals believe staging increases the sale price of the home anywhere from 1 to 15 percent.
But even if it doesn’t increase the value, most agents agree that staging reduces the amount of time the home sits on the market, which is music to any seller’s ears.
Not all homes need a dramatic makeover, but most homes will benefit from at least a thorough cleaning and culling.
“Staging and preparation can include as little as some fresh paint, but in most cases we also landscape, replace dated light fixtures and hardware, and in many cases refinish hardwood floors, replace countertops, bathroom fixtures, etc.,” says Nicole Kennedy, a home staging expert in Piedmont, Calif.
Photo by Bungalow Home Staging & Redesign – More living room photos
  Read on to learn what industry and design trends we can expect in 2018.
More real estate agents get on board
Lori Matzke, founder of HomeStagingExpert.com, provides home staging workshops around the country in addition to running her own staging business in Minnesota. She’s noticed an increased interest and involvement of real estate agents in the staging process.
“Back when I started staging (in 1999), agents were not interested; they didn’t want to have one more thing on their plate,” Matzke says. “My classes are now 90 to 95 percent agents. I think you’re going to see a lot more agents learning about staging and how to advise their clients, because more and more homeowners are demanding that.”
That doesn’t mean agents will be doing the staging themselves, but they will have an eye for what is needed, and will facilitate the interaction between the seller and the stager. “It really helps the homeowner to have an educated real estate agent,” says Matzke. If the agent has prepped the seller about what needs to be removed and cleaned out, it makes the stager’s job faster and cheaper.
Complete vs. partial staging
Staging can range from small efforts like decluttering to a complete move out and refurnishing. Complete staging of vacant homes is a growing trend, according to Matzke. Whether it’s new or model homes, or the seller has moved out, many stagers today only work with vacant homes.
In the booming Bay Area housing market, Kennedy says buyers are accustomed to short sales cycles, so having the home primed and ready is expected.
“Fewer than 10 percent of homes I stage are partial–where we keep some of the furniture and belongings, edit out and add in where needed,” notes Kennedy. “This can be challenging because the staging has to fit in with existing styles and pieces, but it can make more sense to sellers who are staying in the house through the sale.”
Matzke says the complete staging trend isn’t limited to hot real estate markets.
“It’s been trickling down into smaller markets, not just in the larger metropolitan areas,” she notes. The ubiquity of staging on HGTV shows has probably made the idea more palatable to sellers and agents across the county.
Embracing a personal touch
One of the golden rules of staging has long been to keep things neutral to appeal to the widest range of potential buyers. But stagers are increasingly adding a little more design, style, and color to the home.
“Staging is becoming a bit more personal and less stale than it has been in the past,” Kennedy says. “It used to be standard to remove all family photos and personal items from the house, but today’s buyers prefer to see a house with a little personality. They want to see a ‘real’ house that they can imagine themselves in and small, personal details that create an aspirational image can help reach buyers on an emotional level.”
Matzke agrees. “It’s becoming trendy for stagers to do a little mixing with vintage pieces to give it a designer look. I think it gives the place more depth and I’m seeing more chatter about it on blogs.”
Following the design trends
While most of the staging do’s and don’ts will remain the same in 2018, our experts expect some new design trends to emerge in many staged homes next year:
Color: After a few years in which just about every design magazine is covered in gray, Matzke has a bold prediction: Gray is dead. “People are embracing beige and creamy white again,” she says. “I think that’s good because not everybody’s furniture fits with gray.”
Stagers are also increasingly adding a pop of color or an upscale design element to appeal to design-conscious buyers.
“Adding a pop of color in a room through accessories or artwork is common,” says Matzke. “The two big colors I think you’ll see a lot of in 2018 are dark teal and millennial pink … especially if you’re marketing to first-time homebuyers or a younger crowd, you might want to add those colors.”
Floors: It used to be that preparing a home for sale meant replacing old, stained carpet with new carpet, but Matzke says that, too, is changing. “A lot of people are replacing carpeting with wood and faux wood flooring–at least on the main floor,” she adds.
Countertops: While quartz is the latest countertop trend among high-end homes for 2018, Matzke thinks most of America will stick with granite next year because of cost.  “Design magazines are pushing quartz, saying it’s going to be the hot trend for 2018,” Matzke says. “And for the really high-end homes they’re probably right, but for a majority of America, I think it’s still going to be granite.”
Glam: Although it sounds counter to the rule of keeping things neutral, HGTV and design magazines have popularized a bit of glam. “For a long time you’ve seen people adding a little bit of rustic, heavy metal designs, but now you’re seeing a lot more shiny metallics,” Matzke says. “Even gold–it adds a bit of bling to the house.”
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Mary Purcell is a freelance writer and health and finance researcher. She covers homebuying, savings and other personal finance-related topics for MoneyGeek.com. 
from Indianapolis Homes http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/StyledStagedSold/~3/yUbnZaU12Rc/
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derrickgilesten · 7 years ago
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The Forecast: 2018 Trends in Staging
By Mary Purcell, MoneyGeek.com
Home staging has gone mainstream and is now widely used to make a home more attractive to potential buyers. According to a 2017 survey by the National Association of REALTORS®, a majority of real estate professionals believe staging increases the sale price of the home anywhere from 1 to 15 percent.
But even if it doesn’t increase the value, most agents agree that staging reduces the amount of time the home sits on the market, which is music to any seller’s ears.
Not all homes need a dramatic makeover, but most homes will benefit from at least a thorough cleaning and culling.
“Staging and preparation can include as little as some fresh paint, but in most cases we also landscape, replace dated light fixtures and hardware, and in many cases refinish hardwood floors, replace countertops, bathroom fixtures, etc.,” says Nicole Kennedy, a home staging expert in Piedmont, Calif.
Photo by Bungalow Home Staging & Redesign – More living room photos
  Read on to learn what industry and design trends we can expect in 2018.
More real estate agents get on board
Lori Matzke, founder of HomeStagingExpert.com, provides home staging workshops around the country in addition to running her own staging business in Minnesota. She’s noticed an increased interest and involvement of real estate agents in the staging process.
“Back when I started staging (in 1999), agents were not interested; they didn’t want to have one more thing on their plate,” Matzke says. “My classes are now 90 to 95 percent agents. I think you’re going to see a lot more agents learning about staging and how to advise their clients, because more and more homeowners are demanding that.”
That doesn’t mean agents will be doing the staging themselves, but they will have an eye for what is needed, and will facilitate the interaction between the seller and the stager. “It really helps the homeowner to have an educated real estate agent,” says Matzke. If the agent has prepped the seller about what needs to be removed and cleaned out, it makes the stager’s job faster and cheaper.
Complete vs. partial staging
Staging can range from small efforts like decluttering to a complete move out and refurnishing. Complete staging of vacant homes is a growing trend, according to Matzke. Whether it’s new or model homes, or the seller has moved out, many stagers today only work with vacant homes.
In the booming Bay Area housing market, Kennedy says buyers are accustomed to short sales cycles, so having the home primed and ready is expected.
“Fewer than 10 percent of homes I stage are partial–where we keep some of the furniture and belongings, edit out and add in where needed,” notes Kennedy. “This can be challenging because the staging has to fit in with existing styles and pieces, but it can make more sense to sellers who are staying in the house through the sale.”
Matzke says the complete staging trend isn’t limited to hot real estate markets.
“It’s been trickling down into smaller markets, not just in the larger metropolitan areas,” she notes. The ubiquity of staging on HGTV shows has probably made the idea more palatable to sellers and agents across the county.
Embracing a personal touch
One of the golden rules of staging has long been to keep things neutral to appeal to the widest range of potential buyers. But stagers are increasingly adding a little more design, style, and color to the home.
“Staging is becoming a bit more personal and less stale than it has been in the past,” Kennedy says. “It used to be standard to remove all family photos and personal items from the house, but today’s buyers prefer to see a house with a little personality. They want to see a ‘real’ house that they can imagine themselves in and small, personal details that create an aspirational image can help reach buyers on an emotional level.”
Matzke agrees. “It’s becoming trendy for stagers to do a little mixing with vintage pieces to give it a designer look. I think it gives the place more depth and I’m seeing more chatter about it on blogs.”
Following the design trends
While most of the staging do’s and don’ts will remain the same in 2018, our experts expect some new design trends to emerge in many staged homes next year:
Color: After a few years in which just about every design magazine is covered in gray, Matzke has a bold prediction: Gray is dead. “People are embracing beige and creamy white again,” she says. “I think that’s good because not everybody’s furniture fits with gray.”
Stagers are also increasingly adding a pop of color or an upscale design element to appeal to design-conscious buyers.
“Adding a pop of color in a room through accessories or artwork is common,” says Matzke. “The two big colors I think you’ll see a lot of in 2018 are dark teal and millennial pink … especially if you’re marketing to first-time homebuyers or a younger crowd, you might want to add those colors.”
Floors: It used to be that preparing a home for sale meant replacing old, stained carpet with new carpet, but Matzke says that, too, is changing. “A lot of people are replacing carpeting with wood and faux wood flooring–at least on the main floor,” she adds.
Countertops: While quartz is the latest countertop trend among high-end homes for 2018, Matzke thinks most of America will stick with granite next year because of cost.  “Design magazines are pushing quartz, saying it’s going to be the hot trend for 2018,” Matzke says. “And for the really high-end homes they’re probably right, but for a majority of America, I think it’s still going to be granite.”
Glam: Although it sounds counter to the rule of keeping things neutral, HGTV and design magazines have popularized a bit of glam. “For a long time you’ve seen people adding a little bit of rustic, heavy metal designs, but now you’re seeing a lot more shiny metallics,” Matzke says. “Even gold–it adds a bit of bling to the house.”
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Mary Purcell is a freelance writer and health and finance researcher. She covers homebuying, savings and other personal finance-related topics for MoneyGeek.com. 
from Styled, Staged & SoldStyled, Staged & Sold http://styledstagedsold.blogs.realtor.org/2017/12/25/the-forecast-2018-trends-in-staging/
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junker-town · 7 years ago
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99 NBA predictions for the inevitable, incredible 2017-2018 season
Yes, the Warriors are going to win it all. No, you don’t know what else will happen. Yet.
The 2017-18 NBA season tips off on Tuesday. After a completely wild offseason that saw several All-Stars change teams via trade and free agency, and coming off a thoroughly dominant revenge season for the Golden State Warriors, everyone is excited to see what’s going to happen.
So allow me to spoil it all for you by telling you exactly what’s going to happen this season. From the All-Star Game to the broader league narratives to the playoff races, I’ve spelled out 99 big predictions for you.
The predictions are organized into 11 topics, with nine predictions in each. These range from the silly to the serious, from the no-brainer to the completely unbelievable. Don’t hold the crazier ones against me if they fail to materialize, please.
Without further ado ...
The Warriors
Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
The Warriors will win the championship. Sorry, I should have stuck a spoiler alert on this one.
The Warriors will go 16-0 in the playoffs. We’ve seen this team set impossible goals and achieve them. We saw this team go 12-0 through the Western Conference. We’ve heard Draymond Green declare how mad he was the Warriors didn’t sweep the Cavaliers in the 2017 Finals. It’s happening. 16-0 is happening.
The Warriors will accidentally win 73 games. It would actually be difficult for this team to lose, especially with new rules limiting the number of starters who can legitimately rest in road games. (I won’t put it past Steve Kerr to make up fake ailments to get his guys some rest, of course.)
Steph Curry will have a 60-point game. His current career high is 54. That’s a very soft career high!
Kevin Durant will have a 60-point game, too. Durant’s career high is also 54. This is also very soft!
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Klay Thompson will live the best life.
The Nick Young-JaVale McGee friendship will be one of the most lovely stories of the season. The last time this duo was together had darker overtones as the Wizards foundered. They were goofs helping to hold an immature team back. No longer. Now they are the goofs helping a bored hegemon have fun.
The Warriors will drop regular season-games to the Thunder, Spurs, and Rockets. These results will give those teams and their fans false hope.
Steve Kerr will pen op-eds in The Washington Post, New York Times, and Wall Street Journal. He will also publish an essay on democratic norms in the New Yorker, do an interview with the Paris Review, write a first-person essay for Vox.com, and endorse quite early in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary.
The Narratives
Prepare for the G League to become a big deal. We’re nearing the point where every NBA team has a G League team. The NBA is debuting two-way contracts this season. We’re closer than ever to true farm league status. Pay attention. The teams that have embraced the G League are getting great value from it.
The age minimum will finally get solved. In 2011, the NBA and players’ union vowed to fix the age minimum outside of collective bargaining. Then the union leadership imploded and took forever to hire a new executive director, David Stern retired, and the Donald Sterling saga happened. Before we knew it, it was time to negotiate a new labor deal. But this time, I believe the NBA and players’ union are sincere in wanting to change the age rules in some way. Adam Silver has even admitted publicly that it’s not working.
Franchise owners, writers, and fans will continue to complain about superteams. Water is wet.
The Last Tank will be a massive story all year, thanks to a dope draft class. You’re going to have the Knicks and Bulls — two of the league’s most famous franchises -- chasing lottery balls all year. You have at least three potential franchise cornerstones in Luka Doncic, Marvin Bagley, and Michael Porter. You have lottery reform. It’s a stew of weird attention.
LeBron’s offseason plans will be a constant source of delight and frustration. Seriously, are you ready for it?
LaVar Ball actually has a son in the NBA now. All of that attention the sports media complex (myself included) lavished on him came before his kid even debuted in the league. FML.
Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images
All-Star Weekend will be a wonderful league showcase, belying the controversy over 2019 in Charlotte. Last season’s All-Star move from Charlotte to New Orleans over an anti-LGBTQ law in North Carolina showed the league making a political stand for decency. The NBA has already agreed to return to Charlotte in 2019 after what many consider a weak reform to that anti-LGBTQ law passed. No one will talk about that this year. That’s good in the short-term for the NBA ... but it’s a ticking controversy bomb.
NBA stars will not protest during the national anthem ... but at least one player will test the league’s willingness to punish those who do. LeBron has repeatedly indicated that he will not kneel during the anthem, and the Warriors are unlikely to do so, either. But some player out there will sit or kneel in solidarity with NFL players who have done so this season and last. And we’ll all look askance at Adam Silver to see if he’s serious about enforcing the NBA’s rule on standing during the anthem. (Meanwhile, in the midst of all that, we aren’t talking about the reasons NFL players are protesting.)
Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images
NBA players and coaches will continue to speak out about the President’s policies and tone. This is the important piece: the league’s faces will assuredly continue to use their outsized voices to raise objections to what is happening at the head of the federal government. It remains to be seen whether this translates into direct support for efforts to limit the impacts of the administration’s action. Speaking in generalities about decency and democracy in media availability is one thing. Raising money and awareness of actual organizations doing the heavy lifting on this issue is another.
What about LeBron?
LeBron is going to drive us crazy this season. I mean, this has already begun with his visit to a private school in Los Angeles over the summer with his wife. He explained it away as needing a place to work out after a long commercial shoot, but no one buys it. There will be more little flirtatious nuggets of news throughout the season that will point toward a Los Angeles sojourn for LeBron this summer. It’s going to drive us crazy.
Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images
LeBron isn’t going to try to score 50 on the Celtics. That isn’t LeBron’s style. He wants to beat teams he’s mad about, and he knows he can do that most effectively by using the full breadth of his talents. So opening night when the Cavaliers face the Celtics, expect fireworks ... but not a scoring explosion.
LeBron will continue to pick his spots to get political. James isn’t the most political NBA star, but he understands his power and has a clear point of view about human decency. That’s what led to “U Bum” and it’s what will lead to the next conflagration. But don’t expect him to get political every week. That’s not him.
LeBron will become the seventh player in NBA history with 30,000 career points. He’ll do it around All-Star weekend, joining Karl Malone, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, and Dirk Nowitzki. He won’t catch anyone yet, though.
The G.O.A.T. debate will get louder. If LeBron wins another MVP and leads the Cavaliers to yet another NBA Finals — even if he can’t beat the Warriors as presently constructed — the calls to compare him favorably to Michael Jordan will get only louder. You’re beginning to see more converts in the media willing to say it out loud.
LeBron will hype up Isaiah Thomas more than he ever did Kyrie. This isn’t so much a once-bitten, twice-shy scenario, but there’s something most NBA players seem to admire in Isaiah that makes him easy to embrace. LeBron will do so after having a long “work relationship” with Kyrie.
The LeBron-Dwyane Wade friendship will be hilarious and sweet. We lost the Road Trippin’ tag team when Richard Jefferson got traded for luxury tax relief, but at least we have Peanut Butter and Jelly.
PB&J ..We got a lot of work to do as a team but it felt good to be back on the court with my guy @kingjames &⚡️!!!
A post shared by dwyanewade (@dwyanewade) on Oct 10, 2017 at 9:26pm PDT
LeBron will be the dean of All-Star weekend. James’ pride in his own career and his status within the league is more important than his desire to lay low at this point. Plus, All-Star is in Los Angeles, which will make it even more of a circus than usual.
LeBron will remain in Cleveland, but somehow assemble the Banana Boat. This prediction extends beyond the season, of course. I think his desire to be “home” and help the children of Akron exceeds his desire to spend half the regular season in Southern California, especially when that means dealing with the stacked Western Conference, risking his Finals streak, and potentially dealing with LaVar Ball every day. But another defeat at the hands of the Warriors will sting, leading him to convince the front office to bring in Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony, even if it costs those two, LeBron, and Wade lots of cash, the Nets pick, and/or Kevin Love.
The Transactions
Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Expect more Klay Thompson rumors. There’s like no chance the Warriors trade him this season, but he’s a free agent in 2019 and no one expects him to take less money to help out Joe Lacob. Thompson really does not seem like a guy who takes less money ever. He doesn’t have Nike or Under Armour money (no shots at Anta) and he has not seemed to embrace opportunity in Silicon Valley like Kevin Durant or Andre Iguodala. If Lacob gets antsy about an even bigger tax bill in 2019-20 as salary cap growth stagnates, he might direct the front office to look for a younger, cheaper replacement for Thompson on the market.
Isaiah Thomas vs. The Max. When Isaiah gets back on the court, you know he’s going to get questions about his offseason contract expectations. Isaiah has been underpaid his entire career. He wants to get paid, and he should get paid ... if his hip checks out. That could cause some friction as Isaiah speaks up and the Cavaliers (smartly) demure.
That Nets pick is getting traded. The Cavaliers, as presently constructed, are not going to beat the Warriors as presently constructed. Cleveland has the Nets’ unprotected pick thanks to the Kyrie deal. It has been presented as an insurance policy in the event LeBron leaves. Forget that. Use it while you have LeBron to boost your chances of winning another title. What is more likely to persuade LeBron to stay in Cleveland: a very competitive Finals against an unbeatable opponent that may or may not result in a title, or the promise of a good rookie next season? Come on. Trade the pick for an All-Star.
DeMarcus Cousins is not getting traded. There have been suggestions that if the Pelicans come out flat, New Orleans could flip Boogie (possibly for that Nets pick). For one, I think the Pels will be pretty good, and there’s no way New Orleans sacrifices a playoff run with Anthony Davis for a future asset. But here’s the flip side to that: if the Pelicans are bad, Cousins will invariably take the blame, tanking his already low trade value. Plus he’s going into free agency in 2018. No way.
Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
Jahlil Okafor will be traded, and will thrive for a while. It’s been a long time coming. How hard must it be to give it your all in a situation where you know you aren’t wanted, especially as a relatively young person who is accustomed to massive success.
Nerlens Noel will get traded. Noel’s restricted free agency was completely bizarre, and his decision to sign the qualifying offer clearly angered the Mavericks. Dallas didn’t give up much to land Noel a year ago, and so it can justify flipping him for a low first if it determines in January it doesn’t plan on paying what it requires to keep him in the summer.
Eric Bledsoe will be traded. Bledsoe is on an old cap deal, due less than $30 million over two seasons. Phoenix is still not ready to win, and the Suns can’t believe Bledsoe will re-sign in 2019. Bledsoe would have been a more likely option for the Cavaliers before Dwyane Wade signed on. He’d be a brilliant fit for the Jazz or Bucks if they have the pieces to make it work.
Andre Drummond will again be in the rumor mill, and it will again amount to nothing. Drummond is a player whose potential still far outshines the reality. It’s really hard to trade those players because defining what good value looks like is really difficult. It’s clear he doesn’t mesh with Stan Van Gundy at all. Even with Van Gundy pulling the strings in Detroit, finding a taker who will offer the goods is a problem.
The Nuggets will be active. No team looks more thirsty for a playoff bid than Denver — remember the Dwyane Wade chase a year ago, and the Paul Millsap victory this summer, plus that awful Mason Plumlee-Jusuf Nurkic trade at the last deadline. That roster is still wildly unbalanced with youth and potential in the backcourt and veterans (plus Nikola Jokic) up front. Expect attempts to balance it all into a cohesive collection of talent. (The defensive upside still remains wholly questionable.)
The All-Star Game
Joel Embiid will be an All-Star starter. He came awful close a year ago as he expanded his fan base beyond the borders of Philadelphia and, uh, actually played NBA basketball. His fan voting campaign is likely to take on a life of its own, and he may even get a boost from media or player voters if he plays enough games and minutes. We know he’ll put up numbers if he can get out there.
Stephen Curry and LeBron James will be your captains. Remember, the leading vote-getter in each of the Eastern and Western conferences will pick rosters based off the All-Stars chosen through traditional methods. LeBron is almost a lock in the East, barring injury. Curry could definitely be beaten by Kevin Durant, James Harden, or Russell Westbrook for top billing out West, but he has won the honor last year, and I’m betting that holds.
Given the chance, LeBron will steal a Warrior. As I understand it, the captains will pick the other eight starters first (to ensure each team has five) and then start picking from the reserves. Assuming LeBron and either Curry or Durant are captains, and assuming LeBron is the overall leading vote-getter, and assuming the NBA determines that gives him first pick among the other starters ... LeBron would probably pick the available player out of Curry and Durant, just to break up the Warriors and add some intrigue. Don’t count out LeBron drafting his frenemy Draymond Green, too.
Neither Kevin Durant nor Russell Westbrook will draft each other. The prospect of either one being the West captain and passing up on the best All-Star style player on the board should LeBron go first and pick Curry is magical. It’s too bad LeBron would definitely want both of them on his team.
Photo by J Pat Carter/Getty Images
Joel Embiid will be the last starter picked, and will savage the other team for it. It appears that the draft will happen in advance of actual All-Star weekend: I bet they’ll roll it into the getaway TNT game before the break so Kenny Smith and Charles Barkley can chuckle about it. So whoever is the last starter picked will have time to stew before arriving in Los Angeles. Unless a goofy fan vote like Zaza Pachulia makes it as a starter, or a low-glamour wing like Gordon Hayward is named a starter, Embiid might be the last dude picked. Anyone think Embiid would take that in stride with his Twitter Army at his back?
LeBron is going to snub the hell out of Kyrie Irving. The one conditional exception to the above: if the West captain starts taking other players over Kyrie for various reasons, there’s no way LeBron is going to take him. Imagine the nation of Georgia and country singers and Warriors Nation all conspire to make Zaza an All-Star starter over Kawhi Leonard. Imagine LeBron and Curry are the captains. LeBron took Durant, Westbrook, and Embiid. Curry takes Anthony Davis, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and DeMar DeRozan. LeBron’s up and the choices are Kyrie Irving and Zaza Pachulia. You don’t get an opportunity like that every day.
James Harden will not be a starter. He narrowly edged Westbrook last season. The Thunderian’s MVP and boosted team, in concert with Chris Paul shaving down Harden’s gaudy stats a little, should get Westbrook there.
Goran Dragic will be an All-Star. No offense to the Slovenian, but this says as much about the East as it does Goran Dragic. (He’s really good, though.)
The game will still be mostly non-competitive. The NBA and players’ union — led by Michael Jordan and Chris Paul respectively on this topic — think they found a way to turn the All-Star Game from a playful, non-competitive exhibition into an actual game by revising the team make-up and putting charity money on the line. Wrong. No one’s playing real defense here.
The MVP Race
LeBron will be the NBA MVP. It isn’t as if LeBron lacks help with Kevin Love, Dwyane Wade, and (eventually) Isaiah Thomas. But this is a perception thing, and Cleveland should be out in front in the East. LeBron is by far the best player in his conference, and he’s led teams to the Finals every year since 2011. He’s in the driver’s seat.
Kawhi Leonard will be No. 2, and has the best shot to beat LeBron. Leonard finished second when Steph Curry won it unanimously, and third last season behind Russell Westbrook and James Harden. The issue here is that he’s starting the season injured, and he’s likely to rest frequently throughout the season. There’s also a non-zero chance that the Spurs aren’t quite up to their elite standard this season given some player personnel losses.
Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images
Paul George will hurt Westbrook’s case. Let’s just say that Westbrook is unlikely to average a triple-double again. Westbrook will still be a top-flight scorer, but holding the ball less should reduce his assist numbers, and he has a solid rebounding team around him.
Chris Paul will hurt James Harden’s case. Harden’s problem with MVP hasn’t been a lack of stats or wins. It’s been timing. He ran into Curry and Westbrook buzzsaws at the wrong time. But CP3 will have the ball a whole lot more than Patrick Beverley ever did, which should reduce Harden’s gaudy numbers and hurt his MVP shot.
This @CP3 finish! http://pic.twitter.com/Tgm0GsR8Wl
— Houston Rockets (@HoustonRockets) October 12, 2017
Stephen Curry is never winning another MVP. This is not because he did not deserve the prior two MVP awards. It’s mostly because his team lost the NBA Finals to a LeBron-led team in 2016, and then grabbed another top-5 player to strike back. Honestly, this also means that ...
Kevin Durant has an added difficulty level in winning MVP. Remember how some voters kept LeBron off their 2011 MVP ballot, despite him being clearly no worse than the No. 3 player in the league that season? (I think he was No. 1 or 2.) People hold decisions they don’t like against the protagonists. LeBron eventually won two more MVPs, but Durant has a lower margin for error with such great co-stars and such heavy competition. That voter melt matters more.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is not there yet. Almost. The Bucks need to be better.
Jimmy Butler will get some push. If the Timberwolves are as good as many expect them to be, Butler will definitely get a push for ballot inclusion. You know, the old “Chris Paul belongs in the MVP conversation!” that gets a player a bunch of fifth-place votes. Get ready for it.
Ultra dark horse contender: Anthony Davis. If the Pelicans finally put it together and win close to 50 games — we can dream, right? -- The Brow needs to be in the conversation. You might think he gets dinged for having All-Star help in DeMarcus Cousins. Narratives can be framed that he’s the guy who finally took Cousins to the playoffs, though.
The Other Awards
A Timberwolf will win Most Improved Player. I once renounced this award as illegitimate because it only ever rewarded the player who got the biggest minutes played jump. But voters have seen the light and begun awarding it more appropriately -- Giannis was an inspired choice last year — and so Most Improved is back in my good graces. That said, I think team influence will matter a lot, and Minnesota’s expected improvement should help Karl-Anthony Towns or Andrew Wiggins get the nod.
Jusuf Nurkic is the dark horse Most Improved Player. This is tough, because a lot of people already consider Nurkic a basketball god. To get Nurkic MIP, we have to convince everyone he’s not actually already perfect. We have our work cut out for us. One more dark horse while we’re here: Justin Holiday. Okay, one more: literally any Charlotte Hornet other than Dwight Howard, Kemba Walker, and Nicolas Batum.
Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images
If Norm Powell comes off the bench, he’s my Sixth Man of the Year favorite. As of press time, it’s not clear whether Powell or C.J. Miles will be the full-time starter at small forward in Toronto. I would encourage Dwane Casey to choose Miles, both for basketball reasons and to help make this prediction come true. Powell is a dynamo scorer ready to break out into the continental consciousness.
The Clippers have intriguing Sixth Man options in a post-Crawford world. Jamal Crawford, eternal Sixth Man candidate, went to Minnesota. But the Clippers still have two intriguing options for Sixth Man of the Year. The first happens if Milos Teodosic comes off the bench behind Patrick Beverley. Milos will be on “SportsCenter” every night due to his brash passing, so he’ll get juice off just that. Milos, however, might end up a starter alongside Beverley — especially if Austin Rivers is playing more small forward. That opens up the award contention for Sweet Lou Williams, a perennial contender.
Draymond Green will be the Defensive Player of the Year. There’s nothing more to say. Apologies to Rudy Gobert and Kawhi Leonard. Green is at that status where he should automatically win it as long as he plays 70 games.
Tom Thibodeau will be the Coach of the Year. Ending Minnesota’s long playoff drought will have been the work of Towns, Wiggins, and Jimmy Butler, primarily. But Thibodeau is the front office boss, as well, and he’s so damn respected among the media that he’ll get the nod as long as Minnesota is a comfortable playoff team.
Rookie of the Year is going to be a wonderful race I am not going to handicap. Last season’s ROY race was impossible because of a dearth of good candidates. This season’s ROY race is going to be overloaded with worthy contenders. I refuse to pick just one right now. Not even Milos.
The BEST of @MilosTeodosic4 for the @LAClippers in the #NBAPreseason! http://pic.twitter.com/e1DjvcAmuL
— NBA (@NBA) October 15, 2017
It will not be Markelle Fultz, though. It’s pretty clear that Ben Simmons will be more productive than Fultz this season, and that Joel Embiid will soak up attention and credit for any success Philadelphia has. Fultz’s narrative this season is not off to a great success with his jumper weirdness. Sorry, Markelle.
Here are your 2017-18 All-NBA teams. On the first team we have Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, and Karl-Anthony Towns. On the second team we have James Harden, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, and Rudy Gobert. On the third team, we have John Wall, Chris Paul, Jimmy Butler, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan. The biggest snubs include DeMar DeRozan (an outrage!), Damian Lillard (unconscionable!), Draymond Green (disrespectful!), and DeMarcus Cousins (no comment).
Welcome To Tankville
The last real year of tanking will be a barn-burner. Beginning with the 2018-19 season, the worst three teams will have identical draft lottery odds of winning a top pick, and the odds won’t be much worse for the fourth- and fifth-worst teams. But this year, the old rules remain in place: bad teams have significant incentives to be worse than other bad teams. The bad teams that own their own draft picks won’t ignore that. Get ready for the tank.
The Knicks are going to be the worst team in the NBA. This isn’t totally all about trading Carmelo Anthony. This is about committing to the future fully. Scott Perry, the team’s new front office leader, won’t ignore that it behooves the team to bottom out right now. That will inform the moves he makes. Jeff Hornacek is probably sick of losing, but his roster doesn’t have many winning pieces. Kristaps Porzingis will likely be an All-Star, but this team is going to be really bad. The good news is that a good shot at Luka Doncic awaits!
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The Pacers will be close. Losing Paul George, C.J. Miles, and Jeff Teague is such a drain on this team’s passing ability and versatility. It’s going to be a long season for Nate McMillan and the few veterans (like Al Jefferson) on the squad. But hey, Lance Stephenson is around! [hits face on desk]
The Nets will also be bad. Brooklyn again has no reason to tank: its pick will go to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Unfortunately, as Kenny Atkinson and the crew learned last season, a lack of incentive to lose doesn’t mean you won’t lose lots of games. Trading away Brook Lopez was smart for the long-term — D’Angelo Russell has promise — but it doesn’t help win right now. Allen Crabbe is gonna score a bunch, though.
The Kings are the worst in the West. Unless Phoenix trades Eric Bledsoe, the Suns have a blue-chip top-50 player. The Kings ... do not. What’s more, Sacramento owes its 2019 pick, so time is of the essence to bottom out completely. The Kings are one George Hill injury from winning 20 games.
The Lakers will ascend to mediocrity. Lonzo Ball will make L.A. so fun to watch, and Brook Lopez will give them a blue-chip player to orbit around. But the depth is disastrous and I am deeply concerned about the shooting. Thirty wins seems right.
The BEST of the @Lakers from the #NBAPreseason! http://pic.twitter.com/bviUWCKX1R
— NBA (@NBA) October 15, 2017
The Hawks won’t be hideous. The Bulls will. Atlanta has a bad roster, don’t get me wrong. But the system abides and the Hawks should be able to pull some improbable wins out of their hats. Chicago, though? Unless Zach LaVine comes back early, Justin Holiday chases Most Improved Player, and Kris Dunn develops quickly, this season is one long search for Doncic.
The Process is over. No NBA draft lottery party in Philadelphia this year. It’s the end of an era!
There will be a surprise tank team. I’m not saying it’s definitely going to be the Mavericks, but ... it’s probably going to be the Mavericks.
The West
The Rockets will be a clear No. 2 seed in the West. The Thunder added a bunch of firepower and retained the most important pieces of their core, but I question their depth, especially at the point. Houston is built to survive road trips, long stretches, and injuries.
The Thunder and Spurs will battle for the No. 3 seed, which means avoiding the Warriors in Round 1. San Antonio has to be concerned about Kawhi Leonard’s preseason injury and the age of the frontcourt. But the Spurs just win games. The Thunder should be improved enough to make a run at No. 3 with 55 or so wins.
The drop-off between No. 4 and No. 5 will be enormous. There are really four tiers in the West: the Warriors, the three teams chasing them, the eight other teams who are realistically aiming for a playoff spot, and the cellar dwellers. Four of those eight playoff chasers will make the postseason, but my prediction is that six or seven of the team will fall within six wins. Forty-five wins might get you the No. 5 seed, and 41 means you’re out.
The Timberwolves will end their playoff drought. Hallelujah! The curse of Kahn is over! But I don’t expect many more than 44 or 45 wins. Even that is asking a lot, despite the arrival of Jimmy Butler.
The Clippers are in. Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan remain a deadly combo, and the depth is not as bad as you might think.
The Blazers are in. Last season was a disappointment that narrowly resulted in a playoff berth thanks to an inspired February trade for Jusuf Nurkic. I’d expect Portland to come off the starting line hotter and get a few extra wins.
The Pelicans win the last playoff spot on the final day of the season. I have New Orleans sneaking in past the Jazz, Grizzlies, Nuggets, and Mavericks. Utah has an elite defense but too little offense. Denver has an elite offense but too little defense. Dallas is in transition and may be closer to the No. 15 team than the No. 8. The Grizzlies are depending too heavily on magic and Chandler Parsons. Anthony Davis is too damn good to keep missing the playoffs, no matter what misfortune begets his team.
The Lakers will look frisky early and fade away as defenses figure out Lonzo Ball. The team’s defense is also going to be a real disaster. Again.
The Suns might be one of the most fun terrible teams ever. Devin Booker, Eric Bledsoe (so long as he’s around), Josh Jackson, Marquese Chriss — dunks and jumpers all day.
The East
The Cavaliers will not be the No. 1 seed. Over the course of LeBron’s seven straight Eastern Conference titles, his team has been the No. 1 seed only twice. With Isaiah Thomas unavailable for a bit and lots of new players to incorporate, expecting Cleveland to run away with the No. 1 seed is asking too much.
The Celtics will be the No. 1 seed. Boston, of course, is also incorporating a bunch of new faces. But everyone save for Marcus Morris begins the season healthy, and the offensive brilliance of Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward should carry the Celtics through the growing pains.
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The Raptors and Wizards are going to be pretty good again. Toronto lost Patrick Patterson and traded DeMarre Carroll, but so long as the Kyle Lowry-DeMar DeRozan combo is running the squad, the team will be solid. C.J. Miles is a good addition. O.G. Anunoby is on track to be a sleeper hit as a rookie. Meanwhile, the Wizards still have no depth, but that John Wall-Bradley Beal-Otto Porter core is too good to fail.
The Miami Heat are joining the playoff party. Miami has two potential All-Stars in the starting five with Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside. How many East teams can say that? Plus Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow are back, James Johnson stuck around, Kelly Olynyk joined the party, and Bam Adebayo looked useful in the preseason. Strong depth, good top-end talent. Playoffs! Dalé!
The Charlotte Hornets are your surprisingly good team. 2016-17 was a down season for Charlotte after a strong 2015-16 campaign. Blame injuries, ennui, fate. But the Dwight Howard acquisition should actually help (I know, I know) and the conference is exceptionally soft beyond the top nine teams.
The Bucks will be quite solid, too. I know it’s weird to talk about the soft East but bring up decent teams; this is all relative. Milwaukee would probably be the No. 11 team out West. That’s likely good enough for No. 7 in the East. Giannis Antetokounmpo is ridiculously good, Malcolm Brogdon and Khris Middleton are valuable, and I will ride with Jabari Parker until he can no longer run and jump (which might be sooner than we think).
The best plays from @Giannis_An34 as he led the Bucks to the W last night!! #FearTheDeer http://pic.twitter.com/nWj4cayF1t
— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) October 15, 2017
The Sixers are going to be in a pitched battle for the last playoff spot ... with the Pistons. Detroit was a massive disappointment last season, but the addition of Avery Bradley should steady things somewhat. Meanwhile, Markelle Fultz is going to be a real rookie (in other words, don’t expect much) and there is so much learning to do in Philadelphia, even if Joel Embiid stays on the court. (Please recall that the Sixers went 13-18 in games Embiid played last season. They were much, much better when he was around ... but not playoff-worthy.) I think the Sixers will end up with the No. 8 seed solely due to cosmic penance over us missing the Heat last season.
Seriously, don’t watch the Knicks or Pacers. Have I mentioned that I think they will be quite terrible?
The Aaron Gordon saga continues. He’ll be a full-time power forward (finally) and we still aren’t going to see what he’s truly capable of doing. There’s always the dunk contest, though!
The Playoffs
A Celtics-Sixers first-round series will break the Insufferability Scale either way. If Fultz has figured it out and abuses the Celtics, Philadelphia fans will be impossible to deal with, even in defeat. If Fultz struggles, Boston will be so condescending. If this series happens, I’m climbing into a bunker.
Boston’s going down in the second round. Either the Raptors or Wizards (or even the Heat) should be able to abuse what may be an uneven Boston defense. Al Horford is a high-end defender, and Jaylen Brown has enormous potential. But all those potential second-round foes have excellent point guards and shooting guards, making it tough to hide Kyrie. I like the Raps or Wiz to make the conference finals in place for the C’s. (I do think Boston eventually wins a title with this core, though.) This turn of events would also deny us a Boston-Cleveland playoff series, which is deeply upsetting to the point I would like to revise this prediction.
The Cavaliers have another cakewalk. Cleveland went 12-1 in the East last spring. That included a sweep of Toronto and a 4-1 win over Boston. The Wizards might be able to peel two off Cleveland, if Isaiah isn’t ISAIAH when he comes back.
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The inevitability of the Cavaliers both will and will not overshadow fun series. As a fandom, we are learning again how to stay engaged despite inevitability. The Warriors teach us this. This is also writ small in the East as it concerns LeBron’s much longer hegemony. At times, the journey will seem so picayune given the high odds Cleveland advances to the Finals. But hopefully together we can find joy in the ultimately meaningless twists along the way.
The Spurs are the looming hulk out West. San Antonio got swept by the Warriors last season. But there’s a big ol’ asterisk on it: the Spurs were crushing the Warriors in Game 1 until Zaza Pachulia stuck a foot under Kawhi Leonard, ending The Claw’s season and the series. We can still make ourselves believe the Spurs have a real shot to dethrone the Warriors because of that.
Rockets vs. Thunder is the series we all want. It will pay off. James Harden, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Paul George ... plus Carmelo Anthony. Pinch me. Houston vs. Oklahoma City bogged down last season because Westbrook had little offensive help. That’s no longer a problem.
The Timberwolves are getting swept. This isn’t quite the 2010 Thunder, who won 50 games and took the defending champion Lakers to six. Minnesota’s learning curve is just a bit longer. And the top four teams in the West are buzzsaws.
DeMarcus Cousins is definitely getting ejected from one of his first playoff games. I’ll never forget when Boogie was ejected from the season finale of his rookie season. Some things are just perfect.
The Warriors will sweep the Cavaliers. Golden State is just too good, no matter how amazing LeBron is and what Dwyane Wade, Isaiah Thomas, and Kevin Love do. I wish it weren’t so, because the 2016 Finals were simply incredible. But this is what happens when a 73-win team adds a top-3 player. This is what happens.
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That doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy the ride!
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