#poll said to work on comic today so I mostly did that but then inspiration hit

[bvannn]

More Kyo, music video work will begin soon

[colorguardsweetheartblurrsgirl]

Undertale Comic, Now or Later Question...

Thank You, and Happy Hunting or well Questioning (so to speak). And Welcome to the world of the Undertale Comic ‘Shattered Remnants’

(Skip down to the Italicized portion for the actual question to Undertale and fans of undertale comics, though anyone can be involved with asking questions)

Hey everyone, man the last year was rough on me. Not only have I failed to post my fanfictions and art from DA and Fanfiction on here, but I’m falling behind on doing the same to AO3.... Anyways that’s not why I’m here or what’s important to say...

I’m in the process of making an Undertale comic, having recently come into the fandom. I was well inspired while making a fanfiction into creating a comic based around certain events in my fanfiction, but standing as it’s own story that will separate/detach itself from the fanfiction I’m writing into an entirely new story and narrative.

However, with that said. Though I’m not a fan of such (of personally doing so) I often include OC’s in my work as I feel I can’t really claim something as my own like a story and even art without having something that I own in it. This is my personal beliefs towards myself and the way I work when I go to write stories (trust me I’ve tried my hand at not doing this and attempting the opposite, but I always seem to back off last minute and add a main character eventually that I own)

Though in this case of both my comic and fanfiction it’s sorta necessary otherwise the story I created wouldn’t make sense without the characters I own… Or frankly even exist.

If you're curious the story centers around Frisk’s family above ground (from earth) and what exactly transpired with them. What has occurred in the time of his disappearance and what efforts the community at large are giving towards finding the missing child. I came to the conclusion to write this, as besides seeing a room at the end of the game in the neutral run, there isn’t much if at all that we can actually perceive about his life above ground. Besides the facts that are revealed by his room and that he can easily accept the idea to be adopted. There isn’t much after the fact that we can surmise. E.G. is his family alive? Abusive? Dead? Is Frisk in fact an orphan? None of this is known. Although it’s widely accepted (or so I’ve seen) that he’s in fact an orphan. I’m still led to wonder what in fact happened to his family that would lead him to a place such as Mount Ebott. And thus this story was born. It delves into that idea of his family, and what consequences or events have occurred in the city/town he once called home since the time of his disappearance. For years I was a criminology major, I had to study the mental, physical, and community effects of children going missing. As well as those infamous cases that go national. How media likes to find people to condemn, and how sadly communities on their own do the same. It’s a hard reality what happens in these cases. It became something of interests when wondering these questions for myself and considering what in fact would a child rather Frisky, going missing who may not have family left look like.

The comic itself differentiates itself from the main story at the climax of the first act and centers itself more into the middle of the second act of my story. Where it has become it’s own narrative with the same characters and only sharing the background with the original fanfiction. Although, it may have a few differences in even the background (as I’m making the comic like I said entirely it’s own story). As stated above, the comic centers itself around the events after the main team/group found themselves in the underground world seeing it has no official name I called it ‘Underlin’ (Under-l-in) The team by unfortunately lamentable circumstances have been separated in this deadly underground hell. That’s all I’m actually giving for now. I feel giving too much will spoil the story. Or at least where we begin in the comic, and how I move about the other spectrum of the fanfiction. And besides I want to see what questions you send in, as I may use those to give more info on the story itself. However, I infer that you please don’t ask questions intentionally about plot or stuff to do with the main story just the characters here themselves. As that will be answers later for you. Although, you can ask about them and characters in Undertale, like how they would likely interact with each other, stuff like that no biggie (I’m not limiting the reactions to just the oc characters, as I will happily include Undertale characters reacting to possibly certain things they say just as well or in classic Sans fashion interrupting the point for example (I won’t give away what I plan on characters doing, after all that will ruin the fun). Just don’t expect them (or have me write the characters responses) to give away any specific crucial plot details. Those will come later revealed in the stories I’m telling themselves. This is really all just for fun and kicks while I’m working on the first few episodes of the story and also the little mini episode comic that I made to go with the main story just for kicks. As I sit creating this, expanding the intro, and even having one or two minor spin offs that I’ll post around the time of the first chapter/episode/prologue episode. I began to realize today that Unlike the fanfiction (which will be slower on updates then probably the comic itself) I’m probably posting this without people getting a full depth of my characters. Most of whom for the sake of the comic will hang more as memories in the background. Except maybe a select few for when I need them and one that is obviously in the forefront with the main characters. Still each of them have reasons of importance in the comic. Considering this, before I post the story or even a sub story connected to it in comic form.

 Would you guys like me to do a little ‘Question and Answer Panel’ with the characters to get to know these OC’s a little better? 

I know often people do this after somethings become popular. I feel using this method here would better prepare people for the characters, to relate with them when they come around then just being blindsided by a new individual in the picture (I feel like Sans would make that a joke considering picture and comic could go hand in hand as a joke, couldn’t think of one at the moment of posting though so just pointed it out). Anyways, I’ll open it for you guys to ask whatever questions you want. I’ll give maybe a week if I get enough interests/questions (depending on how quickly I get responses) and at most a month to send questions aimed at specific oc’s or all of them to get an idea of who they are. I did this because I feel drawing the characters reactions to the questions would be more fun then me just making a dull description because interesting things can come out of it.

Anywho, out of the few OC’s I have, the ones who are mostly my “main” OC’s are:

~Dalean ‘Dale’ Bentley Kewish

~Benji ‘Ben’ Rufus Euphoria

~Kyleen ‘Kyle’ Olive Tenison

~Nova Jordan ‘N.J.’ Leander Kewish

And MAYBE… ~Douglas ‘Doug’ Quinten Carter

With one or two question slot that you’ll hopefully find adorable for: Baby and Pupkin ‘Buppie’ and no that last one is not a misspelling.

Can’t wait to hopefully see questions you have to ask for these characters that I can make a little fun comic style for them to answer. No question is off limits (Except anything vulgar, please I’m trying to keep it PG-PG-13 at most) Remember there’s no stupid questions, only stupid decisions (Couldn’t think of anything better. And yes-yes that does make me sound like a pretentious teacher now doesn’t it) Have fun asking questions. I’ll have character drawings out soon of each character so we can exclude questions of what they look like and such from the question poll.

Thank You, and Happy Hunting or well Questioning (so to speak). And Welcome to the world of the Undertale Comic ‘Shattered Remnants’ And So It BEGINS...

Always Yours, Blurr’s Girl Blazin’ Blaze

[franeridart]

Can we also talk about how Bakugou went from "weird haired guy" to "Kirishima. Change of plans". Oh man I didn't realize how much I missed the anime *cries*

BOI CAN’T WE I just spent the whole morning crying over seeing the moment Bakugou recognizes Kirishima as an equal animated nbd at all r i p me - I think this might be the first time Bakugou calls anyone by their name, actually, and I just!!! that’s because Bakugou heard Kirishima’s words and recognized him as a good partner and a worthy hero and someone whom he could respect and I’m gonna be grateful for chapter 133 for the insight on this for the rest of my always I !!!!!! have feelings g a h

Anon said:ok ok ok ok but but listen what about BAKGOU AND OCHAKO they are the most popular couple and the most cutest , i think you should try to draw them once i would love love to see this !!! of course just if you want hehe thanx

Ahhh sorry anon but I really don’t ship that - I mean, it’s true that I ship Bakugou with a bunch of people aside from my main two, but if they’re part of Deku’s group you can fairly assume they’re not between my Bakugou ships? And I only romantically ship Uraraka with Deku, Tsuyu and Iida anyway so! You’re probably not gonna see any romantic baku/ocha from me, sorry o

Anon said:Since we know what Bakugou’s parents are like, what do you think Kirishima’s parents are like?

I have a similar ask somewhere asking about Kaminari’s parents as well, so I guess I’ll answer both here?? As a general rule I don’t really like making headcanons over stuff I’m sure the manga will give me in the future, so I can’t say I’ve thought about this too much - there are a few things I work under the assumption of while drawing, like for example I’m taking for granted they both have at least functional families, considering Aizawa personally visited their homes to ask their guardians about allowing them back to school, and if anything had been weird he would have noticed

I like to think Kaminari got his quirk straight from one of his two parents with no mixing happening, and got the Kaminari surname from them as well, but that’s all I ever allowed myself to settle on as far as Kami’s family goes, everything else changes based on what I need for the current scenario I’m thinking about… I do often end back on him being an only child, though - in the same way depending on how angst or lighthearted I want it to be my ideas for Kirishima’s family change a lot, but generally I think I mostly fall back on the idea of him having a big family? In a scenario like that his parents are kind and love him a lot, but having many children and needing to split their attention on all of them might cause them to overlook him a little (it would explain his obsession with being flashy, for me) then again, who knows? I don’t know how canon you can consider the infos SMASH gives, but in one of the strips Kiri mentions working part-time, and the fact that he doesn’t seem to have problems with money kinda makes me believe he might be independent from his family like that (unless he’s a rich kid, also very entertaining as a possiblity)

I’ve seen a lot of headcanons floating around about both of these guys’ families and possibly being related to villains, that would be cool too, though I’m not sure how much I believe it

I’m sorry this ended up being little to no useful at all lol as I said, I just shift between scenarios a lot - imagine settling on one and growing attached and then having to let it go once Hori proves it wrong, that’d be terrible for me

Anon said:Oh my god…we had a black cat called nitro !! He was super affectionate and high strung. Thanks for reminding me of him. great art as always !!!

You’re!!! the second person telling me they have/had a cat called that!!!! °O° is it a popular name for cats? I just called her that for Baku’s quirk tbh hahaha

Anon said:I would L.O.V.E to do a BNHA art collab with you my lord!

BOI THAT’S FLATTERING!!!!!! I’ve never done collabs before though, so I dunno if I’m comfortable with this? I’ll !!! have to think about it!

Anon said:Not only is your art adorable but how much you babble on in the tags is absolutely precious, you’re like a sunshine who always brightens up the day just by being yourself!

Way to make me blush anon oh my g o d!!!!!! I’m??? glad I can make you smile with my incoherent blabbering??? It’s super nice to know because tbh I just have way too much to say about everything hahaha (read: I dunno how to shut up. ever. rip)

Anon said:I just wanted to say your asks posts and doodles and literally just your whole blog in general brightens up my day so much no matter how sucky it’s been. I had a rough day today but the first thing I saw when I got on tumblr was one of your bakugou drawings and it made me smile when nothing else that day did and I just wanted you to know that. Also you seem like one of the most honest and heartwarming people ever. I hope you have a good weekend. ❤️

gODS what’s up with you guys trying so hard to make me a smiling and blushing mess here aaaahhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!! thank?? you???? I’m really, really, really��happy I could make you smile!!! That’s the reason why I post my stuff to begin with, knowing I could help you even just a little bit means a lot!!!

Anon said:I’m really sorry if I reposted anything!!!!! Its truly out of habit….😌 But really, I’m sorry. (By the way, your art is amazing!!)

Thank you!! And as long as you took down whatever you reposted, your apology is more than accepted! Thank you for being understanding! But that kind of habit is something you should really grow out of, anon - for most artists, if they wanted their art on other websites they would post it themselves, and as long as it’s about sharing it here on tumblr a reblog is more than good enough! It’s nice of you to want to share my things, and I’m happy you like my stuff enough to want more people to see it, but since I don’t have accounts anywhere else on the internet I don’t really want my stuff there either - a link back to the original post would suffice if all you want is share, wouldn’t it? 

About this, thank you so much to all the super nice people telling me they’re sorry about my stuff being reposted! There’s a lot of you and posting all the asks here would make this post insanely long, but know that I read all of them and I appreciate every word! To those mentioning they do tell people to take my stuff down when they notice it being reposted, thank you so so so so much, and to those worrying I might stop posting, for now that’s still not going to happen - I might reduce the amount of stuff I post for specific fandoms or ships, but I love it all too much and I love sharing my love for them too much to just stop. And thank you for all the nice words and compliments too, you’re all so kind to me !!!!

Anon said:I don’t know if you’re familiar with Dave and Buster’s (it’s a big arcade/restaurant for mainly adults) but I went the other day and all I could think about was “holy shit, Kuroo, Bokuto, and Terushima would have the time of their lives here” anyway, just thought I’d share that with you since I know you ship them as well cx

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! we don’t have those in Italy so I can’t say I am, but this sounds interesting and if it’s bo kuro and teru I’m always up for hearing more! What kind of place is it? How does it work?? *O*

Anon said:Not a question or anything but I just found your blog and it is so nice??? Like all your art is amazing and you’ve made bakushimanari my ot3 and you bakusquad doodles are just perfect too. Just thank you for existing and your art and ideas just give me life. That’s all

THANK YOU OH MY GODS!!!!!!!!!! I’m so so so happy you like my squad stuff?? Lately they’re the most entertaining thing to draw tbh, I’m glad there’s actually people who like all the silliness hahaha I wish you the best weekend, anon, I know this ask just made mine, tbh!!

Anon said:LMAO when did Allen strip I don’t remember that

It’s in an extra! God I can’t remember what they were talking about so I can’t find it, I’ve been trying to since I got this ask (if??? anyone knows??? that’d be much appreciated???) but anyway they were hosting something? It might have been a character poll or something similar but I’m not sure, and Allen was The Host™ and at some point he started stripping and talking about added prices for it and if I remember right Reever and/or Johnny might have started crying for his forever lost and now non-existent innocence (was that a pun? possibly)

Anon said:OMG!!! I get so excited every time I see you posted something and now you just !!! uploaded !!!! all !!!! these !!!! BAKUGOU !!!! BIRTHDAY !!!!! COMICS !!!! AND !!!! I !!!!! AM !!!!! SO !!!! HAPPY !!!!!! (and they are all so adorable!!)

I’M GLAD YOU LIKED THEM HOLY SMOKES!!!!!!! Every time I post so much all together I always worry it’s too much haha I’m sorry for clogging all your dashboards now and again rip

Anon said:I was so excited this chapter of bnha because I thought we’d finally learn Kirishima, my babies, backstory but then we didn’t and now I’m sad (im still holding out for him having met/seen Bakugou in middle school for some reason and being inspired or something).

That’s tbh a good headcanon I’ve seen around now and again, and until Horikoshi will finally stop holding back all the Kiri infos you!!! keep on doing your thing!!!! he for sure already knew of him because everyone did thanks to the sludge incident, so why the heck not 

(I can’t say I share the hc though, since until they fought together during the USJ attack Kirishima did think of Bakugou’s quirk as Everything He Ever Wanted™, but he didn’t seem to be much into Bakugou himself? I dunno I dunno Kiri’s very gay and got around to sticking to Bakugou like glue in something like fifteen chapters I can’t say we saw much of how he used to think of him before deciding he wanted to marry him lmao)

Anon said:I love Kirishima so much it’s genuinely confusing, like this boy is literally sunshine and I want him to be happy with his explody bf. The latest chapters gave me life because he is shining and I want the world to love him like I love him. Your art of him is beautiful and the best thing ever.

BOY THANK YOU!!!! I’m glad I can do him justice in your opinion? He’s SO MUCH and SO BRIGHT !!!!!!!!!! It’s kind of hard, making him just as good as he is in canon, but that’s cause he’s perfect how is he that perfect how does he even do that I 100% share all of your confusion anon when did I even fall this hard for that child

Anon said:I’m most into the voltron fandom tonight so if I followed every blog that was suggested I would be burried in more discourse than I can handle lmao so I will just try to dig through tags to find weeks

……that’s really one messy fandom you decided to stick with, anon, I admire your strength - but!!! as far as ship weeks go, since the voltron fandom is pretty huge maybe there might be a blog dedicated specifically to letting you know when fandom events are supposed to happen! You should try digging around for that!!! 

[theconservativebrief]

The Florida Senate race this year has given Democrats plenty of reason to be nervous.

Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is facing Republican Gov. Rick Scott, one of the best recruits for Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections and a wealthy candidate whose campaign is already outspending Nelson’s by a 4-to-1 margin. The two faced off in a debate on Tuesday night.

Nelson has built a reasonably strong brand, representing Florida in the Senate since 2001. Scott, meanwhile, has never won a race by more than a point in years friendlier to the GOP. But the GOP governor is still a serious threat in a state where elections are rarely decided by more than a point or two.

For a time, Scott had jumped out to a slim lead in the polling — and a major advantage in campaign spending, having already spent more than $27 million to Nelson’s $6 million, according to Open Secrets. Democrats have had to hope the lopsided spending explained the Republican lead in the polls and can therefore be corrected as their own spending picks up in the last weeks of the campaign.

“Having been in the fight with Scott in the past, there is a flow to the way they campaign: they use their financial advantage to get on TV early, and Scott, to his credit, is tireless on the stump,” Steve Schale, a Democratic operative in Florida, told me. “So am I worried about Nelson? Sure, but not any more or less than any Democrat running in a competitive race here. This race was always destined to be close, it is just how Florida works these days, for better or worse.”

Florida will be one of 2018’s marquee — and probably its most expensive — Senate races. Democrats are on defense in yet another state Trump won in 2016. They can’t afford to lose any additional seats if they’re to have any hope of reclaiming the majority.

“The two biggest determinants in the Senate race are, one, resources and, two, Donald Trump,” Mac Stipanovich, a longtime Republican operative in Florida, told me earlier this year. “Either one of them can win, but my sense is that if Nelson has comparable resources then the governor is the underdog.”

Scott’s candidacy was long expected. Trump and Washington Republicans had been courting him. He is term-limited at the end of this year, after his two four-year terms as governor. He doesn’t really have anything else to do.

Rick Scott is also very, very rich, and he has shown before he’s willing to spend whatever it takes to win a statewide election in Florida.

He is worth about $150 million, according to the most recent estimates, after making his money as a hospital executive. He spent $75 million of his own money to win the 2010 gubernatorial race — his first political campaign of any kind — and another $13 million in his 2014 reelection campaign.

Scott never won big: He beat Alex Sink by 1.2 percentage points in 2010 and Charlie Crist by 1 point in 2014. But he did win.

“With Scott, this is a guy who’s been told he can’t do something like this twice, and twice proven everybody wrong,” Schale told me. “A more conventional politician might look at national mood and think, ‘Wow, this could be really uphill.’ Scott’s view is: ‘You told me I couldn’t win the first time, and I won. Why would I listen to you now?’”

Scott’s candidacy is also important from a national perspective. Republicans theoretically have a lot of Senate pickup opportunities this year; Nelson is one of 10 Democrats up for reelection in a state that Trump won in 2016. But they have at times struggled to attract top-tier candidates. To give one example: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, representing Montana, a state that Trump won by 21 points, still rated his race as lean Democratic because his GOP isn’t considered top-notch and Tester has polled well.

The Florida governor, on the other hand, is a hardened, well-qualified, and sure to be well-funded candidate. Scott will force Democrats to take Florida seriously and to invest the necessary time and money into the race to make sure Nelson beats Scott. This race will now demand resources that Democrats otherwise could have spent defending their other more vulnerable incumbents or going on offense in states like Arizona, Nevada, or Mississippi.

Republicans currently hold a slim 51-49 advantage in the Senate. Democrats are defending seven of the 10 most competitive races this fall, and need to hold on to every seat they can — including, now, Florida, which Cook rates as a toss-up — if they want a shot at a majority.

“This is a very competitive race, and if the Democrats don’t lay out on it, they’ll lose. They are going to have to step up and help Bill Nelson,” Stipanovich said. “If Scott outspends him 2 to 1, it’s quite likely that Gov. Scott will prevail.”

The current spending figures give Scott that kind of advantage: Open Secret reports that Scott has raised $31 million to Nelson’s $20 million and spent nearly $28 million to Nelson’s $6 million.

Perhaps as a result, Real Clear Politics had Scott leading Nelson by one or two points on average in the polls, until recently. Nelson now holds an equally slim 1.1-point advantage, after a couple of good surveys.

As for the candidates themselves, the Florida Senate race has been lacking in charisma. That was clear again in Tuesday night’s debate. Schale had previously said of his fellow Democrat Nelson: “Not a guy who’s lining up to give the keynote speech at the DNC. Not gonna break any records for his oratory skills.”

Regarding Scott, Stipanovich, the Republican operative, had said: “Gov. Scott doesn’t exactly light up the stage. He’s not the most dynamic and inspiring speaker.”

I profiled Scott in 2013 for Governing magazine and came away with much the same impression:

At the Florida statehouse for National Day of Prayer this May, for instance, the businessman who won Florida’s governorship in 2010 doesn’t work the room so much as he goes through the motions. He dons the same slight smile as each photo is taken. He exchanges a few friendly words with every person who approaches him in the large room on the 21st floor of the Capitol. Standing by the windows, he’s framed by an expansive view of Tallahassee and beyond, but he doesn’t own the scene. There isn’t the charisma you might associate with the governor of the fourth-largest state in the country.

Scott tried to turn that to his advantage in announcing his candidacy.

“Let’s stop sending talkers to Washington. Let’s send some doers to Washington,” he said in his maiden campaign speech. It’s a theme he hits constantly throughout his campaign.

Nelson, meanwhile, sought to portray Scott as a political opportunist.

“While it’s clear that Rick Scott will say or do anything to get elected, I’ve always believed that if you just do the right thing, the politics will take care of itself,” he said in a statement.

They do have strengths, of course. Nelson has been elected in the state three times, after all, most recently by 13 points in 2012 — unheard of in a state where statewide elections are usually decided by a point or two. Schale praised the senator (who once famously went to space) for sticking to Florida-specific issues, like offshore drilling and Medicare for the state’s more elderly population, while mostly avoiding the high-profile spats in Washington on more contentious matters.

“Nelson does a pretty good job as well of avoiding those big fights,” Schale said. “He’s a guy who leans in really hard on issues that are important to the state.”

Scott, meanwhile, rode into office on the Tea Party wave, railing against Obamacare. He seemed for all appearances an ideologue, famously rejecting money for a high-speed rail from the Obama administration, to the chagrin of even some Republicans in his state.

But over the years, he has moderated himself. He has become almost comically on message, refusing to talk about anything except for jobs and the economy and a few other pet issues he picks every legislative session, like raises for teachers. The thrust of his 2018 campaign message is sure to be the 1.6 million jobs created while he’s been governor.

“In the beginning, similar to but not the same as Trump, he had the CEO syndrome,” Stipanovich said. But “he’s gotten better at doing the job. Fewer gaffes, fewer unforced errors, more discipline.”

Most recently, after the Parkland high school shooting that killed 17 people, Scott defied the National Rifle Association and got some modest gun control measures passed in a state that had been to date one of the most gun-friendly in the country. People from both parties commended how the governor handled that crisis. “Scott was actually pretty active in that fight,” Schale said. “He was the first governor to stand up to the NRA.”

But Democrats will “make sure Nelson has everything he needs because you can’t go forward if you go backward first,” Schale said. “It’s hard to imagine a scenario where we win the Senate without winning Florida.”

Ultimately, the race is likely to be determined more by Trump.

Trump won Florida by 100,000 votes in 2016. The state remains divided on the president: Morning Consult reported in July that 50 percent of Floridians approved of Trump and 46 percent disapproved.

Once upon a time, Scott was one of Trump’s biggest fans. He chaired a pro-Trump Super PAC, endorsed the future president in a laudatory USA Today op-ed well before most GOP politicians were doing the same, and spoke at the Republican National Convention. Trump has been one of the biggest boosters of Scott’s potential candidacy, and his administration hasn’t hesitated to bestow some favors on Scott, like rolling back an unpopular plan to allow oil drilling off the state’s shores.

Lately, Scott has tried to put a little distance between himself and the president, notably condemning Trump’s racist “shithole” comments regarding African nations and criticizing the offshore drilling plan. He also opposed the Trump administration’s family separations policy during the crisis at the Mexican border; Florida has a large bloc of Hispanic voters.

“This is a conundrum faced by Republicans everywhere: Can Rick Scott get far enough away from Donald Trump to survive a competitive campaign?” Stipanovich said. “More recently, he is much less likely to embrace Trump publicly on some issue. He’ll bob and weave and obfuscate. That’s telling in itself.”

“A year ago, he could not wait to wrap himself around Donald Trump,” Stipanovich noted.

Original Source -> The very expensive, extremely close Florida Senate race, explained

via The Conservative Brief

[theconservativebrief]

With Tuesday’s primary elections little more than a formality, the Florida Senate campaign has already hit the general-election gear — and it’s giving Democrats reason to be nervous.

Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is facing Republican Gov. Rick Scott, one of the best recruits for Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections and a wealthy candidate whose campaign is already outspending Nelson’s by a 4-to-1 margin.

Nelson has built a reasonably strong brand, representing Florida in the Senate since 2001. Scott, meanwhile, has never won a race by more than a point in years friendlier to the GOP. But the GOP governor is still a serious threat in a state where elections are rarely decided by more than a point or two.

For now, Scott seems to hold a slim lead in the polling — and a major advantage in campaign spending, having already spent more than $27 million to Nelson’s $6 million, according to Open Secrets. Democrats are hoping the lopsided spending explains the Republican lead in the polls and can therefore be corrected as their own spending picks up in the next few months.

“Having been in the fight with Scott in the past, there is a flow to the way they campaign: they use their financial advantage to get on TV early, and Scott, to his credit, is tireless on the stump,” Steve Schale, a Democratic operative in Florida, told me. “So am I worried about Nelson? Sure, but not any more or less than any Democrat running in a competitive race here. This race was always destined to be close, it is just how Florida works these days, for better or worse.”

Florida will be one of 2018’s marquee — and probably its most expensive — Senate races. Democrats are on defense in yet another state Trump won in 2016. They can’t afford to lose any additional seats if they’re to have any hope of reclaiming the majority.

“The two biggest determinants in the Senate race are, one, resources and, two, Donald Trump,” Mac Stipanovich, a longtime Republican operative in Florida, told me earlier this year. “Either one of them can win, but my sense is that if Nelson has comparable resources then the governor is the underdog.”

Scott’s candidacy was long expected. Trump and Washington Republicans had been courting him. He is term-limited at the end of this year, after his two four-year terms as governor. He doesn’t really have anything else to do.

Rick Scott is also very, very rich, and he has shown before he’s willing to spend whatever it takes to win a statewide election in Florida.

He is worth about $150 million, according to the most recent estimates, after making his money as a hospital executive. He spent $75 million of his own money to win the 2010 gubernatorial race — his first political campaign of any kind — and another $13 million in his 2014 reelection campaign.

Scott never won big: He beat Alex Sink by 1.2 percentage points in 2010 and Charlie Crist by 1 point in 2014. But he did win.

“With Scott, this is a guy who’s been told he can’t do something like this twice, and twice proven everybody wrong,” Schale told me. “A more conventional politician might look at national mood and think, ‘Wow, this could be really uphill.’ Scott’s view is: ‘You told me I couldn’t win the first time, and I won. Why would I listen to you now?’”

Scott’s candidacy is also important from a national perspective. Republicans theoretically have a lot of Senate pickup opportunities this year; Nelson is one of 10 Democrats up for reelection in a state that Trump won in 2016. But they have at times struggled to attract top-tier candidates. To give one example: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, representing Montana, a state that Trump won by 21 points, is currently facing such a weak Republican field that Cook Political Report rates his race as a likely Democratic win.

The Florida governor, on the other hand, is a hardened, well-qualified, and sure to be well-funded candidate. Scott will force Democrats to take Florida seriously and to invest the necessary time and money into the race to make sure Nelson beats Scott. This race will now demand resources that Democrats otherwise could have spent defending their other more vulnerable incumbents or going on offense in states like Arizona, Nevada, or Mississippi.

Republicans currently hold a slim 51-49 advantage in the Senate. Democrats are defending seven of the 10 most competitive races this fall, and need to hold on to every seat they can — including, now, Florida, which Cook rates as a toss-up — if they want a shot at a majority.

“This is a very competitive race, and if the Democrats don’t lay out on it, they’ll lose. They are going to have to step up and help Bill Nelson,” Stipanovich said. “If Scott outspends him 2 to 1, it’s quite likely that Gov. Scott will prevail.”

The current spending figures give Scott that kind of advantage: Open Secret reports that Scott has raised $31 million to Nelson’s $20 million and spent nearly $28 million to Nelson’s $6 million.

Perhaps as a result, Real Clear Politics has Scott leading Nelson by 1.5 points on average in the polls, and the most recent survey put the Republican up by 6 points over the Democrat.

As for the candidates themselves, the Florida Senate race will be lacking in charisma. Schale said of his fellow Democrat Nelson: “Not a guy who’s lining up to give the keynote speech at the DNC. Not gonna break any records for his oratory skills.”

Regarding Scott, Stipanovich, the Republican operative, said: “Gov. Scott doesn’t exactly light up the stage. He’s not the most dynamic and inspiring speaker.”

I profiled Scott in 2013 for Governing magazine and came away with much the same impression:

At the Florida statehouse for National Day of Prayer this May, for instance, the businessman who won Florida’s governorship in 2010 doesn’t work the room so much as he goes through the motions. He dons the same slight smile as each photo is taken. He exchanges a few friendly words with every person who approaches him in the large room on the 21st floor of the Capitol. Standing by the windows, he’s framed by an expansive view of Tallahassee and beyond, but he doesn’t own the scene. There isn’t the charisma you might associate with the governor of the fourth-largest state in the country.

Scott tried to turn that to his advantage in announcing his candidacy.

“Let’s stop sending talkers to Washington. Let’s send some doers to Washington,” he said in his maiden campaign speech.

Nelson, meanwhile, sought to portray Scott as a political opportunist.

“While it’s clear that Rick Scott will say or do anything to get elected, I’ve always believed that if you just do the right thing, the politics will take care of itself,” he said in a statement.

They do have strengths, of course. Nelson has been elected in the state three times, after all, most recently by 13 points in 2012 — unheard of in a state where statewide elections are usually decided by a point or two. Schale praised the senator (who once famously went to space) for sticking to Florida-specific issues, like offshore drilling and Medicare for the state’s more elderly population, while mostly avoiding the high-profile spats in Washington on more contentious matters.

“Nelson does a pretty good job as well of avoiding those big fights,” Schale said. “He’s a guy who leans in really hard on issues that are important to the state.”

Scott, meanwhile, rode into office on the Tea Party wave, railing against Obamacare. He seemed for all appearances an ideologue, famously rejecting money for a high-speed rail from the Obama administration, to the chagrin of even some Republicans in his state.

But over the years, he has moderated himself. He has become almost comically on message, refusing to talk about anything except for jobs and the economy and a few other pet issues he picks every legislative session, like raises for teachers. The thrust of his 2018 campaign message is sure to be the 700,000 jobs created while he’s been governor.

“In the beginning, similar to but not the same as Trump, he had the CEO syndrome,” Stipanovich said. But “he’s gotten better at doing the job. Fewer gaffes, fewer unforced errors, more discipline.”

Most recently, after the Parkland high school shooting that killed 17 people, Scott defied the National Rifle Association and got some modest gun control measures passed in a state that had been to date one of the most gun-friendly in the country. People from both parties commended how the governor handled that crisis. “Scott was actually pretty active in that fight,” Schale said. “He was the first governor to stand up to the NRA.”

But Democrats will “make sure Nelson has everything he needs because you can’t go forward if you go backward first,” Schale said. “It’s hard to imagine a scenario where we win the Senate without winning Florida.”

Ultimately, the race is likely to be determined more by Trump.

Trump won Florida by 100,000 votes in 2016. The state remains divided on the president: Morning Consult reported in July that 50 percent of Floridians approved of Trump and 46 percent disapproved.

Once upon a time, Scott was one of Trump’s biggest fans. He chaired a pro-Trump Super PAC, endorsed the future president in a laudatory USA Today op-ed well before most GOP politicians were doing the same, and spoke at the Republican National Convention. Trump has been one of the biggest boosters of Scott’s potential candidacy, and his administration hasn’t hesitated to bestow some favors on Scott, like rolling back an unpopular plan to allow oil drilling off the state’s shores.

Lately, Scott has tried to put a little distance between himself and the president, notably condemning Trump’s racist “shithole” comments regarding African nations and criticizing the offshore drilling plan.

“This is a conundrum faced by Republicans everywhere: Can Rick Scott get far enough away from Donald Trump to survive a competitive campaign?” Stipanovich said. “More recently, he is much less likely to embrace Trump publicly on some issue. He’ll bob and weave and obfuscate. That’s telling in itself.”

“A year ago, he could not wait to wrap himself around Donald Trump,” Stipanovich noted.

Original Source -> Rick Scott just jumped into the very important Florida Senate race

via The Conservative Brief