#obx theory

[dreaming-for-an-escape]

My favorite OBX theory is that JJ and Sarah are really siblings 🥹

It might be a long shot but let me believe this could end up being true. They already radiate sibling energy.

[kierreras]

With those new leaks I have some thoughts, so sharing with the class now:

First of all, why do they have different settings for Topper/John B fight? Like were they filming closeups during the daytime and the whole fight with wide shots was filmed in the evening? The timing of the party is pretty strange too. So John B and Sarah have some argument during the daytime, JJ and Kiara have scene where he is disappointed in her during daytime too. But I was under impression that after that scene JJ leaves like at all because there was a video of Rudy getting into the boat and someone mentioned that when they filmed JJ leaving there were Mike and Anna on the background (which leads me to thinking that there should also be a reaction of Carreras for Jiara fight)

So apparently both JJ and JB are staying till the evening and the fight happens in the evening. What was JJ doing after fight with Kiara? Was he with Pope and Cleo? Cause both JD and Carlacia were also spotted on the set (but again during daytime shoots, so there are still questions)

Also, I wanted to mention that apparently Jarah breaks up again during the party. Which is lame ‘cause the writers keep giving them the same Topper-Sarah-John B triangle conflict every season. And it is boring because the ship is interesting and people are invested in it only when there are different and fresh conflicts. Moreover, with Jarah they had a great conflict for this season – Big John being back. Still, here we are again, watching the same triangle bs

Also, with whom Sarah is staying? Many people think that she stays with Topper’s family, but do child services know about it? I know that this whole thing was important only for John B in season one and they kinda forget about it with JJ in season two , but still. If the writers forgot about child services for Sarah as well, wouldn’t it be more logical that she is staying in the Chateau? Or with Kiara?

JJ trying to reason with Carreras. I saw that many people assumed that on the last leaked scene Mike is telling JJ that “he told him that it would happen”, but my guess is that those words were addressed to Kie. She could have convinced her parents to invite pogues to the party (John B and JJ included) and they were very hesitant about this idea.

And the scene with JJ, Mike and Anna near Carreras house happens after the party. My guess that in this exact scene JJ is doing some damage control after the things went down. So, I think that after he is gone, Mike and Anna talk to Kiara on the porch (also photo with three of them behind the scenes) and maybe they give her some freedom and permission to go meet with the pogues. Because there were also behind the scenes photos of Bailey and Cline on pier. Bailey was in the same outfit from the porch scene, so I guess it should be after the talk with Mike and Anna

There are a lot of words, but I really just wanted to share some of my thoughts

[multiverses-and-promdates]

dear obx writers, please don't make rafe have a dramatic coming out in season 4. it would be so much better if his relationship with barry was just casually treated as a given fact because it's the most natural thing that these two are together. thanks.

[jjclopelover]

JJPope arguments = hidden meanings?

Is it just me, or do they feel more personal or real when JJPope argues/have serious conversations? Don't get me wrong, all the characters have their moment to portray their raw emotions, especially in arguments or fights. But with JJ and Pope, it's different. When they go at it (like about the restitution or the plan to get John B out of jail), it feels like there is more hidden in those arguments than the fans and the rest of the pogues see. Like they always get closer to each other and really maintain eye contact, almost like they are saying different things with their eyes. Like they had a history that we don't know about. I might sound absolutely crazy, but please let me know if you understand what I'm saying.

[maybankiara]

obx brainrot but i really want them to reveal what happened during kiara's kook year. if we really get a whole show without revealing that... and what's the deal with her and rafe? they've been hinting at something for so long, but never elaborating... honestly. just give me info about kiara's kook year. please. please.

[missmouse43]

I wanted to share something I noticed from the trailer that I haven’t seen talked about yet because I think there’s potential for it to be another Jiara scene 👀

So we get this random shot of this tiny boat floating down the river 

And after zooming in I realized Kiara is actually sitting on the front of it and she’s wearing her episode 10 outfit (you can tell by the bandana and lilac top) so this scene takes place in the finale.

Now this is a classic sitting while lost in thought and about to have a deep, meaningful conversation with someone pose if I’ve ever seen one, but from the angle they show us I can’t see any other bodies on board. If all the other pogues were with her, or even just JJ, Pope, and Cleo (since John B and Sarah have fucked off to a cave) I’m sure we’d be able to see at least ONE other person sitting behind her. But we don’t (at least I don’t. Maybe I’m blind?) Which means there’s only one other person sitting at the very back, out of frame, steering the boat for her.

HMMMMM. I WONDER WHO THAT COULD BE.

[jjxkiaraxpopexcleoxjohnbxsarah]

I will 4ever believe that JJ and Sarah are siblings like they are perfect in every way and I love them

They both had issues with their dad.

Both lost their mum(notice I don't say mums)

Both have blonde hair

Both are sarcastic

Both are loyal

There are so many scenes where they are looking out for each other and I love it

My favourite is the motorbike scene in s3 when Sarah hugs JJ - total CamBank moment❤️❤️❤️❤️

Also did anyone else notice how only Sarah and JJ were suspicious of John B when they all reunited and JB was lying about why he'd gone to the museum with Big John

The fact that Madeline cline also loves the CamBank theory-aaaaaaaaaaaah

[homebody-nobody]

this is me asking about your theories about mike and anna's teen pregnancy 👀👀

OKAY SO

Through watching season three, we know that Mike and Anna are having their fifteenth anniversary party. We ALSO know that Kie is obviously over fifteen. (this could also be interpreted as the *restaurant's* 15th anniversary, but I think it's a wedding anniversary, specifically on Vibes and Vibes Alone.) With these two pieces of information, we can infer that Kiara Carrera was born *GASP* out of wedlock. We can also BACK UP this inference with a line from season two, when Kiara says 'you're afraid I'll sleep with a pogue and end up pregnant, just like you did.' (we are hoping against hope that this is not foreshadowing. Please, Pates, for the LOVE OF ALL THAT IS HOLY do not ALSO throw teen pregnancy into this mess. I digress.)

All of this information taken together points us thusly -- Kie was an unplanned pregnancy. We also know that Mike and Anna are significantly younger than Big John and the Heywards, although we have some allusion to the fact that Luke knew Anna back in the day. (Don't get me started on my Maybank Family Meta. It's *detailed*)

In order to dive into my theory that Kie was a teen pregnancy and it influenced Mike and Anna's 'success,' we need to examine Mike's (minimal) relationship with JJ, and JJ's storyline in season three. A lot of JJ's arc in season three (and in the other seasons overall) involve a decent amount of self-deprecating humor and some supposed-to-be-funny lines that just make you Really Fucking Sad. We see the culmination of this with Mike's line 'he's just like his father' and JJ stealing Mike's money clip. (Which like, I get that it was bad and it was a symbol and shit but like. Mike deserved it.) Kiara, naturally, is furious with him for 'giving them a reason.'

Essentially, JJ is a character that was born with a nasty reputation (thanks Luke). In past seasons and ESPECIALLY in this one, we understand that JJ *believes* everything said about him. He *believes* he's a bad influence/a loser/a bad kid/and just like his dad. (heartbreaking.) Part of the very heart of all the jiara development in season three involves Kie being FURIOUS that JJ would believe all that shit, both on his behalf, and AT HIM for believing it. When he says 'I'm sorry' in 3x09, he's apologizing for stealing the money clip, but he's also apologizing for believing what Mike (and everyone else) says about him, and apologizing for letting that be the reason he was convinced they shouldn't be together.

Now, bear with me. Because I believe that Mike hates JJ with such a fury because he used to BE JJ. Except, in Mike's case, his relationship with a girl from the other side of the island only ENFORCED that belief, rather than undermining it. Mike believes that he had to work hard to get out of the cut, and resents JJ for not doing the same work -- Mike truly believes that he was once a no-good dirty-rotten petty thief, and thus believes that JJ is, too. Except, in his eyes, he 'did the work' to get out, and JJ is, well. not doing that.

This is where the teen pregnancy loops back in. Mike and Anna own a restaurant. To start a restaurant, you need investors. If it was the Cut Community that pulled together behind them to support their dream, Mike would undoubtedly retain an ENORMOUS sense of loyalty to that community, and STILL be shitting on Figure Eight to this day. But, he's not. Why, you ask? Probably because Anna's Parents were the initial investors for the Wreck. If Mike got Anna pregnant and Anna's family Had Feelings about it, Mike would have had to PROVE that he intended to provide for Anna and Kie. What better way than to start a business. Anna's parents probably invested in it in order to preserve their relationship with their daughter and parent the best way rich people know how -- by throwing money at the problem.

Thus, Mike believes that the only way out of the Cut is by bowing and scraping to those on Figure Eight, treating them with 'respect' and 'earning' their approval (money). We also have bits and pieces of Anna telling Kie that she wants Kie to have the opportunities she had, and that they had to 'work hard' to get into the island club, maintain their reputation, etc. This evidence supports the idea of Anna being a disgraced kook, and, combined with Kie's comment about 'getting pregnant with a pogue,' gives us a pretty solid reason why Anna and Mike wouldn't be automatically accepted by Figure Eight and the rest of 'Good Society.'

The 'teen' part is mostly based on the anniversary party vs. Kie's age, but is enforced by the fact that Mike and Anna are TERRIFIED of Kie running around with 'those boys' at her age -- probably because Anna did the same thing, and ended up pregnant and at the mercy of her own parents. It's also looped in by them being afraid that she's 'throwing away her future.' Projection much, babes? Anna 'threw away' her future when she got pregnant at Kie's age, and explains her absolute desperation to keep her daughter from doing the thing.

That's about as coherent as I can make it lol so I hope it makes sense!!

[stupidthingsgoodoutcomes]

Okay so it’s that time of the day (I’m over-analyzing the OBX3 trailer) and I’ve come to some realizations that I felt compelled to share.

So, we’re all familiar with this shot of JJ punching the ground. There’s been a lot of theories that say maybe they lose Kie in this scene and that’s why he’s angry/upset - which I definitely thought possible because during the legendary hug, they’re wearing the same outfits.

But this time around, I noticed the scene immediately before we see the shot of him punching the ground is the exact same scene. It’s hard to tell because everything moves so quickly, but it’s not two scenes cut together, it’s one.

We can see JJ in the back, in the same position he’s in in the closer shot, and also we can see that Kiara is completely fine and present. So, that’s not what JJ’s upset about.

It’s a small detail but it’s just something that intrigued me!

[hepaidattention]

OBX s4 ideas?

• flashbacks throughout the season of stuff we missed between the time jump. maybe show us some jiara missing scenes, show us jarah starting up their surf shop

• Rafe full villain mode now. with Ward being dead, there's no way Rafe won't blame Sarah (who he instructed to keep his father safe). I feel like Rafe will either go completely nuts or take a 360 turn as a good guy. good guy feels unlikely. he'll probably get that arc once he's done some more horrible things in the name of his father

• vengeful Topper on Team!Rafe since ya boys now a full fledged arsonist tsk tsk

• Kie and JJ are together, but they're gonna have a rocky season OR they're not together and we have to watch them work stuff out to go back to each other again. considering we already watched all s3 will they/won't they my guess is just a rocky season. jarah has been through too much for them to be the rocky relationship anymore and JJ is too damaged for their not to be difficulties to overcome. Kie's parents, for one.

• jiara still be jiara. super casual about it all when with the pogues because they're still best friends, only when they're alone they get into a little more trouble ;)

• the pogues all dealing with a little bit of a identity crisis. they're rich but still pogues and still treated like pogues for the most part, and they'll have to figure out where they fit in now as young adults

• this is a longshot but always my dream: JJs mom comes back and turns out that Sarah and JJ are siblings

• they'll a be dealing with adulthood now and it'll be weird for them. jiara and jarah will have to face how to be in a mature relationship where they both have jobs and lives, and they'll have to now deal with their careers getting in the way of treasure hunting rather than school and parents

• JJ is going to try really hard not to screw stuff up with Kie and act on his natural self destructive tendencies and I think s4 might really focus on how damaged JJ really is, having to face those demons head on if he wants to really be with Kie.

• I would do anything for some pure full-pogue crew scenes, all of them just together and living life, dancing, laughing on JJs new boat

• Kie will still be working things out with her parents. she'll probably have some serious trust issues and probably a lot of fights.

• Jarah gets legally married. I would CRY for a Jarah wedding oh my god. And JJ and Pope the groomsmen and Sarah and Cleo the bridesmaids and JJ crying as John B gives his vows ALSO crying and Pope's dad marries them 😭😭 I literally would cry so hard it needs to happen.

• and meanwhile they'll still be trying to find Blackbeards treasure, which I am excited about because it isn't a personal treasure to find at this point. they're literally just looking for it because they love the hunt and they're a bunch of adrenaline junkies. there's no "if we don't find it I'll die of starvation" or "it belonged to my family legacy" mentality connected to it, so it makes the opportunity for seeing other characters growth much easier. I'm excited

• the Pogues being like official treasure hunters now, and JJ makes jokes about their new team name (bad ones only) and acts like they need to do a vlog and share it to the world.

• John B rebuilds the chateau with his new fortune and the Pogues still do most their hanging out there. JJ lives in his boat but he also docks it at John Bs dock and spends most his time annoying Sarah and John B, who I predict live together

• this season will likely happen the summer before Pope goes off to school, so directly after s3 ends. OBX is known for taking three months max in a time span for a season and Pope going to school will complicate things. if the show got a s5, they would either have to time jump AGAIN or only take place in the summer so Pope will still be there for the treasure hunting.

• Cleo and Pope will have to figure out what they really mean to each other, since Pope is going to school. my guess is the break up because of him leaving, but by the end they decide that's stupid and get back together.

what do you guys think will happen???

[dayshipper]

I think a lot of the conflict that Kiara is going to have with JJ this season will be because of her parents. Yes, there are the Rafe theories but I think a lot of the tension will be because Kiara's parents don't want her hanging around JJ. This is nothing new but I think they might have something on him that makes Kie think 'oh shit, they're seriously not going to quit this'. Or maybe they bargain with her and say that they'll pay for his restitution if she stays away from him. Whatever it is, she freezes him out and he is left completely in the dark thinking 'what have I done wrong?' The argument scene (we assume) at her parent's anniversary party is probably her saying 'what the hell are you doing here? You need to leave. They can't see you here' and he's probably like 'why, don't I fit into your perfect little kook world?' and she's like 'what part of you and John B crashing this thing did you think was a good idea?' etc etc.

(Lol sorry for the bad dialogue - I am clearly not a writer 😂)

If her parents were still threatening to send her to boarding school, I think she'd still risk hanging out with them. But if her parents threatened someone like JJ, she'd do everything she could to protect him - including staying away from him. She doesn't care about herself as much as she cares for JJ.

[kierreras]

ever since the photos from today came i was thinking about why could that be a final scene and how could showrunners make a cliffhanger. so i remembered riverdale season two (or it was three?) finale where archie was giving some sort of speech in the gym and then the police came in to arrest him. so the season ended on archie being escorted away

what if john b is giving an acceptance speech or some other thing is happening and then fbi (shoupe is on event as well, so it won’t be as shocked as it could have been) comes to arrest pogues or some of them. my guess is that they may arrest john b or/and jj for some reason. i don’t think that they could arrest other pogues, but for a shock value – why not? and these arrests would definitely create a rift among all pogues.

i don’t think that writers are going to end season with jarah broken up and i really hope that if we get a new season, writers would abandon that triangle with topper storyline. john b being in jail could be a great way to creat struggles for him and sarah.

also, jj could be arrested as well. and him being in jail would not serve well for his mental state because that is what he always was afraid of – being in jail like his dad. so it could be a good way to tease jj focused season. also, as we know jiara is now getting closer and him being in jail could show kie pinning and working on getting him out.

as we don’t see camerons as well as rafe there, i think that he could be the one that gets them arrested.

[alphinias]

Really struggling with how dead the obx fandom feels

We’ll be getting promo before you know it and everyone will be back! Just the unfortunate reality of hiatus for a streaming show.

[where-theres-smoak-2]

Jiara Season 4 Prediction

I’ve seen a lot of conversation around whether JJ and Kiara are together post time jump and I saw Madison’s interview where she said it was left ambiguous which got me thinking. Personally I do think this is all just to generate engagement and to get fans talking about the show. From what I understand the Jiara fandom is pretty big and so by keeping them ambiguous they can keep the fans speculating and keep the interest in the show up during the wait for season 4. So I don’t think Jiara fans should be too worried about Jiara in season 4 because I don’t think they would have put all that effort into them this season, or setting them up in previous seasons, just to throw it all out the window come season 4. 

That being said I did wonder if they do decide to go the route of they broke up in the time jump what could have brought that break up about? What I came up with is definitely your typical teen drama cliché but I think it could work if written properly. So here’s my theory, in season 2 Kiara mentions that her parents are afraid that she is going to sleep with a pogue and get pregnant like her mum did with her. It’s one of their biggest fears and part of the reason why they don’t like Kiara hanging around with the pogues. JJ’s biggest fear, meanwhile, is that he is going to turn out just like his dad. We know that they are planning to do flashbacks in season 4 to show what happened during that missing time. Now I don’t think Kiara will get pregnant but I do think its possible that one of those flashbacks will be Jiara having a pregnancy scare. Kiara thinks she might be pregnant and confides in JJ who then freaks out. Facing the prospect of potentially becoming a father makes JJ think of his own and then his self doubt creeps in and he figures there’s no way he could ever possibly be a good father because he had such a crappy example, that he’d end up ruining the life of any child he has and messing that kid up. It would also create some potential drama between Kie and her parents if they find out because you know they would pull the ‘we told you so’ card and blame it all on JJ and it would be another reason why they disapprove of JJ and of Kiara being around the pogues. I think ultimately when they take a test it’ll come back negative, or they’ll get a false positive but it’ll later be confirmed by a doctor that she isn’t, but the whole situation will get JJ thinking about their future and how if things go well between them the natural progression over time would lead to marriage and children. But these things are triggering for JJ due to his parent’s splitting up and the result of that being Luke being a crappy ass father which feeds into JJ’s fears about becoming a crappy father himself. The pregnancy scare just makes things way too real for JJ so he breaks up with Kie figuring it would be better to do it now than to risk them becoming more serious years down the line. Seeing as JJ is such an impulsive and volatile character who is prone to self sabotage and the fact that Kie isn’t the kind to give up on JJ that easily as proven this season, I also wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to cement this break up and try to deliberately turn Kie against him by either deliberately getting caught by Kie with another girl or by telling her he cheated on her when he didn’t. It really depends just how teen drama messy they want to go with it. 

So that’s my theory, I just feel like with how strong they left Jiara at the end of season 3 pre time jump, what with them confessing that they love each other and having worked through JJ’s self doubt issues and fears it has to be something pretty big to cause that break if they do decide to have them break up. Also to me the most logical way of doing it is to stick with the issues that they’ve already established in past seasons such as JJ’s issues with his father and self worth and Kie’s issues with her parents and their fears around her being lead estray by hanging with the pogues. Hopefully though there is no break up and when we come back for season 4 it’ll turn out they were all just trolling us with this ambiguity talk and Jiara are happily in love and all the flashbacks will just be them being cute and adorable in the early stages of their relationship.     

[maybankiara]

anyway i'm planning on making my boyfriend join me for my obx rewatch (it'll be his first time) and if this boy has bad takes (which, i love him, but he usually does) it might be the final straw that gets me fully back into the fandom. just to spite him

[missmouse43]

Jiara isn’t in this scene so you know what that means.. they’re on a side mission by themselves 🤭 https://x.com/obxupdates_/status/1779194065222852921?s=46&t=3pVP4qJcqGhmh_sHRUkcSA

My thoughts exactly anon. Funny how we’ve gotten to a point where we actually get excited when JJ and Kie aren’t even in the bts with the other pogues because we know they’re probably together somewhere else 😆

I can’t wait for more jiara solo missions. Here’s hoping they get up to all sorts of shenanigans!