#obx theories

[homebody-nobody]

this is me asking about your theories about mike and anna's teen pregnancy 👀👀

OKAY SO

Through watching season three, we know that Mike and Anna are having their fifteenth anniversary party. We ALSO know that Kie is obviously over fifteen. (this could also be interpreted as the *restaurant's* 15th anniversary, but I think it's a wedding anniversary, specifically on Vibes and Vibes Alone.) With these two pieces of information, we can infer that Kiara Carrera was born *GASP* out of wedlock. We can also BACK UP this inference with a line from season two, when Kiara says 'you're afraid I'll sleep with a pogue and end up pregnant, just like you did.' (we are hoping against hope that this is not foreshadowing. Please, Pates, for the LOVE OF ALL THAT IS HOLY do not ALSO throw teen pregnancy into this mess. I digress.)

All of this information taken together points us thusly -- Kie was an unplanned pregnancy. We also know that Mike and Anna are significantly younger than Big John and the Heywards, although we have some allusion to the fact that Luke knew Anna back in the day. (Don't get me started on my Maybank Family Meta. It's *detailed*)

In order to dive into my theory that Kie was a teen pregnancy and it influenced Mike and Anna's 'success,' we need to examine Mike's (minimal) relationship with JJ, and JJ's storyline in season three. A lot of JJ's arc in season three (and in the other seasons overall) involve a decent amount of self-deprecating humor and some supposed-to-be-funny lines that just make you Really Fucking Sad. We see the culmination of this with Mike's line 'he's just like his father' and JJ stealing Mike's money clip. (Which like, I get that it was bad and it was a symbol and shit but like. Mike deserved it.) Kiara, naturally, is furious with him for 'giving them a reason.'

Essentially, JJ is a character that was born with a nasty reputation (thanks Luke). In past seasons and ESPECIALLY in this one, we understand that JJ *believes* everything said about him. He *believes* he's a bad influence/a loser/a bad kid/and just like his dad. (heartbreaking.) Part of the very heart of all the jiara development in season three involves Kie being FURIOUS that JJ would believe all that shit, both on his behalf, and AT HIM for believing it. When he says 'I'm sorry' in 3x09, he's apologizing for stealing the money clip, but he's also apologizing for believing what Mike (and everyone else) says about him, and apologizing for letting that be the reason he was convinced they shouldn't be together.

Now, bear with me. Because I believe that Mike hates JJ with such a fury because he used to BE JJ. Except, in Mike's case, his relationship with a girl from the other side of the island only ENFORCED that belief, rather than undermining it. Mike believes that he had to work hard to get out of the cut, and resents JJ for not doing the same work -- Mike truly believes that he was once a no-good dirty-rotten petty thief, and thus believes that JJ is, too. Except, in his eyes, he 'did the work' to get out, and JJ is, well. not doing that.

This is where the teen pregnancy loops back in. Mike and Anna own a restaurant. To start a restaurant, you need investors. If it was the Cut Community that pulled together behind them to support their dream, Mike would undoubtedly retain an ENORMOUS sense of loyalty to that community, and STILL be shitting on Figure Eight to this day. But, he's not. Why, you ask? Probably because Anna's Parents were the initial investors for the Wreck. If Mike got Anna pregnant and Anna's family Had Feelings about it, Mike would have had to PROVE that he intended to provide for Anna and Kie. What better way than to start a business. Anna's parents probably invested in it in order to preserve their relationship with their daughter and parent the best way rich people know how -- by throwing money at the problem.

Thus, Mike believes that the only way out of the Cut is by bowing and scraping to those on Figure Eight, treating them with 'respect' and 'earning' their approval (money). We also have bits and pieces of Anna telling Kie that she wants Kie to have the opportunities she had, and that they had to 'work hard' to get into the island club, maintain their reputation, etc. This evidence supports the idea of Anna being a disgraced kook, and, combined with Kie's comment about 'getting pregnant with a pogue,' gives us a pretty solid reason why Anna and Mike wouldn't be automatically accepted by Figure Eight and the rest of 'Good Society.'

The 'teen' part is mostly based on the anniversary party vs. Kie's age, but is enforced by the fact that Mike and Anna are TERRIFIED of Kie running around with 'those boys' at her age -- probably because Anna did the same thing, and ended up pregnant and at the mercy of her own parents. It's also looped in by them being afraid that she's 'throwing away her future.' Projection much, babes? Anna 'threw away' her future when she got pregnant at Kie's age, and explains her absolute desperation to keep her daughter from doing the thing.

That's about as coherent as I can make it lol so I hope it makes sense!!

[stupidthingsgoodoutcomes]

Okay so it’s that time of the day (I’m over-analyzing the OBX3 trailer) and I’ve come to some realizations that I felt compelled to share.

So, we’re all familiar with this shot of JJ punching the ground. There’s been a lot of theories that say maybe they lose Kie in this scene and that’s why he’s angry/upset - which I definitely thought possible because during the legendary hug, they’re wearing the same outfits.

But this time around, I noticed the scene immediately before we see the shot of him punching the ground is the exact same scene. It’s hard to tell because everything moves so quickly, but it’s not two scenes cut together, it’s one.

We can see JJ in the back, in the same position he’s in in the closer shot, and also we can see that Kiara is completely fine and present. So, that’s not what JJ’s upset about.

It’s a small detail but it’s just something that intrigued me!

[hepaidattention]

OBX s4 ideas?

• flashbacks throughout the season of stuff we missed between the time jump. maybe show us some jiara missing scenes, show us jarah starting up their surf shop

• Rafe full villain mode now. with Ward being dead, there's no way Rafe won't blame Sarah (who he instructed to keep his father safe). I feel like Rafe will either go completely nuts or take a 360 turn as a good guy. good guy feels unlikely. he'll probably get that arc once he's done some more horrible things in the name of his father

• vengeful Topper on Team!Rafe since ya boys now a full fledged arsonist tsk tsk

• Kie and JJ are together, but they're gonna have a rocky season OR they're not together and we have to watch them work stuff out to go back to each other again. considering we already watched all s3 will they/won't they my guess is just a rocky season. jarah has been through too much for them to be the rocky relationship anymore and JJ is too damaged for their not to be difficulties to overcome. Kie's parents, for one.

• jiara still be jiara. super casual about it all when with the pogues because they're still best friends, only when they're alone they get into a little more trouble ;)

• the pogues all dealing with a little bit of a identity crisis. they're rich but still pogues and still treated like pogues for the most part, and they'll have to figure out where they fit in now as young adults

• this is a longshot but always my dream: JJs mom comes back and turns out that Sarah and JJ are siblings

• they'll a be dealing with adulthood now and it'll be weird for them. jiara and jarah will have to face how to be in a mature relationship where they both have jobs and lives, and they'll have to now deal with their careers getting in the way of treasure hunting rather than school and parents

• JJ is going to try really hard not to screw stuff up with Kie and act on his natural self destructive tendencies and I think s4 might really focus on how damaged JJ really is, having to face those demons head on if he wants to really be with Kie.

• I would do anything for some pure full-pogue crew scenes, all of them just together and living life, dancing, laughing on JJs new boat

• Kie will still be working things out with her parents. she'll probably have some serious trust issues and probably a lot of fights.

• Jarah gets legally married. I would CRY for a Jarah wedding oh my god. And JJ and Pope the groomsmen and Sarah and Cleo the bridesmaids and JJ crying as John B gives his vows ALSO crying and Pope's dad marries them 😭😭 I literally would cry so hard it needs to happen.

• and meanwhile they'll still be trying to find Blackbeards treasure, which I am excited about because it isn't a personal treasure to find at this point. they're literally just looking for it because they love the hunt and they're a bunch of adrenaline junkies. there's no "if we don't find it I'll die of starvation" or "it belonged to my family legacy" mentality connected to it, so it makes the opportunity for seeing other characters growth much easier. I'm excited

• the Pogues being like official treasure hunters now, and JJ makes jokes about their new team name (bad ones only) and acts like they need to do a vlog and share it to the world.

• John B rebuilds the chateau with his new fortune and the Pogues still do most their hanging out there. JJ lives in his boat but he also docks it at John Bs dock and spends most his time annoying Sarah and John B, who I predict live together

• this season will likely happen the summer before Pope goes off to school, so directly after s3 ends. OBX is known for taking three months max in a time span for a season and Pope going to school will complicate things. if the show got a s5, they would either have to time jump AGAIN or only take place in the summer so Pope will still be there for the treasure hunting.

• Cleo and Pope will have to figure out what they really mean to each other, since Pope is going to school. my guess is the break up because of him leaving, but by the end they decide that's stupid and get back together.

what do you guys think will happen???

[hrts4mayward]

MY OBX HEADCANONS 🌊

- my gender/sexuality headcanon and then two random ones i think of on the spot (pogues!)

JOHN B ROUTLEDGE

- he/him

- straight ally, cis gendered

- the friend who everyone falls asleep on. probably smells pretty good or has soft features (yk how some people have really sharp chins or elbows? yeah john b doesn’t. bro is COMFY)

- terrible texter. takes days to respond with “lol”

JJ MAYBANK

- he/him

- bisexual (or gay, i haven’t decided)

- adhd

- the biggest fan of everyone else in the group. he does his best to validate everyone’s feelings and make everyone feel good about themselves. great hype man.

POPE HEYWARD

- he/they

- bisexual, transmasculine

- autistic.

- love language is acts of service

KIARA CARRERA

- she/they

- lesbian

- asexual

- great gift giver. has notes in her phone to write down things the others say they want all year

- caught fireflies in jars as a kid

SARAH CAMERON

- she/her

- pansexual

- demisexual

- overthinker.

- would make the whole group friendship bracelets and tell them that with them, they’d always have each other even if they get separated again. the whole group would wear theirs religiously.

CLEO (no last name??)

- they/them

- lesbian, non-binary

- loves cooking with her whole heart.

- can sleep just about anywhere (boat life 🤷‍♀️)

[multiverses-and-promdates]

dear obx writers, please don't make rafe have a dramatic coming out in season 4. it would be so much better if his relationship with barry was just casually treated as a given fact because it's the most natural thing that these two are together. thanks.

[jjclopelover]

JJPope arguments = hidden meanings?

Is it just me, or do they feel more personal or real when JJPope argues/have serious conversations? Don't get me wrong, all the characters have their moment to portray their raw emotions, especially in arguments or fights. But with JJ and Pope, it's different. When they go at it (like about the restitution or the plan to get John B out of jail), it feels like there is more hidden in those arguments than the fans and the rest of the pogues see. Like they always get closer to each other and really maintain eye contact, almost like they are saying different things with their eyes. Like they had a history that we don't know about. I might sound absolutely crazy, but please let me know if you understand what I'm saying.

[maybankiara]

obx brainrot but i really want them to reveal what happened during kiara's kook year. if we really get a whole show without revealing that... and what's the deal with her and rafe? they've been hinting at something for so long, but never elaborating... honestly. just give me info about kiara's kook year. please. please.

[missmouse43]

I wanted to share something I noticed from the trailer that I haven’t seen talked about yet because I think there’s potential for it to be another Jiara scene 👀

So we get this random shot of this tiny boat floating down the river 

And after zooming in I realized Kiara is actually sitting on the front of it and she’s wearing her episode 10 outfit (you can tell by the bandana and lilac top) so this scene takes place in the finale.

Now this is a classic sitting while lost in thought and about to have a deep, meaningful conversation with someone pose if I’ve ever seen one, but from the angle they show us I can’t see any other bodies on board. If all the other pogues were with her, or even just JJ, Pope, and Cleo (since John B and Sarah have fucked off to a cave) I’m sure we’d be able to see at least ONE other person sitting behind her. But we don’t (at least I don’t. Maybe I’m blind?) Which means there’s only one other person sitting at the very back, out of frame, steering the boat for her.

HMMMMM. I WONDER WHO THAT COULD BE.

[jjxkiaraxpopexcleoxjohnbxsarah]

I will 4ever believe that JJ and Sarah are siblings like they are perfect in every way and I love them

They both had issues with their dad.

Both lost their mum(notice I don't say mums)

Both have blonde hair

Both are sarcastic

Both are loyal

There are so many scenes where they are looking out for each other and I love it

My favourite is the motorbike scene in s3 when Sarah hugs JJ - total CamBank moment❤️❤️❤️❤️

Also did anyone else notice how only Sarah and JJ were suspicious of John B when they all reunited and JB was lying about why he'd gone to the museum with Big John

The fact that Madeline cline also loves the CamBank theory-aaaaaaaaaaaah

[dayshipper]

I think a lot of the conflict that Kiara is going to have with JJ this season will be because of her parents. Yes, there are the Rafe theories but I think a lot of the tension will be because Kiara's parents don't want her hanging around JJ. This is nothing new but I think they might have something on him that makes Kie think 'oh shit, they're seriously not going to quit this'. Or maybe they bargain with her and say that they'll pay for his restitution if she stays away from him. Whatever it is, she freezes him out and he is left completely in the dark thinking 'what have I done wrong?' The argument scene (we assume) at her parent's anniversary party is probably her saying 'what the hell are you doing here? You need to leave. They can't see you here' and he's probably like 'why, don't I fit into your perfect little kook world?' and she's like 'what part of you and John B crashing this thing did you think was a good idea?' etc etc.

(Lol sorry for the bad dialogue - I am clearly not a writer 😂)

If her parents were still threatening to send her to boarding school, I think she'd still risk hanging out with them. But if her parents threatened someone like JJ, she'd do everything she could to protect him - including staying away from him. She doesn't care about herself as much as she cares for JJ.

[alphinias]

Really struggling with how dead the obx fandom feels

We’ll be getting promo before you know it and everyone will be back! Just the unfortunate reality of hiatus for a streaming show.

[where-theres-smoak-2]

Jiara Season 4 Prediction

I’ve seen a lot of conversation around whether JJ and Kiara are together post time jump and I saw Madison’s interview where she said it was left ambiguous which got me thinking. Personally I do think this is all just to generate engagement and to get fans talking about the show. From what I understand the Jiara fandom is pretty big and so by keeping them ambiguous they can keep the fans speculating and keep the interest in the show up during the wait for season 4. So I don’t think Jiara fans should be too worried about Jiara in season 4 because I don’t think they would have put all that effort into them this season, or setting them up in previous seasons, just to throw it all out the window come season 4. 

That being said I did wonder if they do decide to go the route of they broke up in the time jump what could have brought that break up about? What I came up with is definitely your typical teen drama cliché but I think it could work if written properly. So here’s my theory, in season 2 Kiara mentions that her parents are afraid that she is going to sleep with a pogue and get pregnant like her mum did with her. It’s one of their biggest fears and part of the reason why they don’t like Kiara hanging around with the pogues. JJ’s biggest fear, meanwhile, is that he is going to turn out just like his dad. We know that they are planning to do flashbacks in season 4 to show what happened during that missing time. Now I don’t think Kiara will get pregnant but I do think its possible that one of those flashbacks will be Jiara having a pregnancy scare. Kiara thinks she might be pregnant and confides in JJ who then freaks out. Facing the prospect of potentially becoming a father makes JJ think of his own and then his self doubt creeps in and he figures there’s no way he could ever possibly be a good father because he had such a crappy example, that he’d end up ruining the life of any child he has and messing that kid up. It would also create some potential drama between Kie and her parents if they find out because you know they would pull the ‘we told you so’ card and blame it all on JJ and it would be another reason why they disapprove of JJ and of Kiara being around the pogues. I think ultimately when they take a test it’ll come back negative, or they’ll get a false positive but it’ll later be confirmed by a doctor that she isn’t, but the whole situation will get JJ thinking about their future and how if things go well between them the natural progression over time would lead to marriage and children. But these things are triggering for JJ due to his parent’s splitting up and the result of that being Luke being a crappy ass father which feeds into JJ’s fears about becoming a crappy father himself. The pregnancy scare just makes things way too real for JJ so he breaks up with Kie figuring it would be better to do it now than to risk them becoming more serious years down the line. Seeing as JJ is such an impulsive and volatile character who is prone to self sabotage and the fact that Kie isn’t the kind to give up on JJ that easily as proven this season, I also wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to cement this break up and try to deliberately turn Kie against him by either deliberately getting caught by Kie with another girl or by telling her he cheated on her when he didn’t. It really depends just how teen drama messy they want to go with it. 

So that’s my theory, I just feel like with how strong they left Jiara at the end of season 3 pre time jump, what with them confessing that they love each other and having worked through JJ’s self doubt issues and fears it has to be something pretty big to cause that break if they do decide to have them break up. Also to me the most logical way of doing it is to stick with the issues that they’ve already established in past seasons such as JJ’s issues with his father and self worth and Kie’s issues with her parents and their fears around her being lead estray by hanging with the pogues. Hopefully though there is no break up and when we come back for season 4 it’ll turn out they were all just trolling us with this ambiguity talk and Jiara are happily in love and all the flashbacks will just be them being cute and adorable in the early stages of their relationship.     

[stupidthingsgoodoutcomes]

ok so i'm just really wondering how jiara will be in the 4th season. like are they gonna become gf and bf? for some reason i feel like they aren't even gonna try to be anything more, because it would just be weird and awkward. like they have been friends for a while now so idk whats going to happen with them.

what do you think will happen with jiara in season 4?

I definitely agree, I don’t think we’ll get confirmed boyfriend-girlfriend at the start of the series. Not because they’ve broken up or anything, but because they’re both so used to being friends that they don’t know how the dynamic will change if they label it. I think your analysis is pretty much what I’d expect!

They could be back to just being friends, but that’s not likely in my mind. I think they’re past the point of being able to say “we’re just friends.” It would be doable if they (like Kie and Pope) had just had a brief fling or something, but they clearly are 100% in love, so… no.

It might be that they’ve dated and then broken up - again, possible, especially because JJ has so much to work through, but not likely in my opinion, for the same reason. If they have broken up, it’s his choice because he doesn’t feel ready, not Kiara’s, and they certainly both still love each other.

I think most likely they’ll still be sort of together - in a similar way that they are when we end season three. They love each other and they know that, but they’re not certain on where to go next and haven’t labelled anything. I don’t think that JJ is ready for everything a serious relationship entails, and I think he needs some more time before he gets there. Kiara would be supportive and accepting of that, so that might be where season four finds us.

We’ll have to see, though, because all of the possibilities are, well, possible, and either way we’ll get ✨flashbacks✨ (thank you Pates)

[hmspogue]

OKAY THE WAY THE FINAL THREE EPISODES ARE NOT MARKED WITH THE FEB 23 DATE??? AM I SMELLING A TWO PART SEASON BC THIS IS ALL IVE BEEN ASKING FOR

[dreaming-for-an-escape]

My favorite OBX theory is that JJ and Sarah are really siblings 🥹

It might be a long shot but let me believe this could end up being true. They already radiate sibling energy.

[catstack17]

obx spoiler

and to think we got a flashback of sarah and topper before flashbacks of the oldest cameron siblings-

rafe and sarah’s complicated dynamic would’ve been so much more interesting but no we needed the backstory of sarah and topper first smh