#now hes missing trump 3.0

[animentality]

my brother isn't voting today.

he has a perfectly legitimate reason, though, don't get mad.

his fucking lungs collapsed and he's in the hospital :)

he was planning on voting, but, you know. things happen.

[autumnbrambleagain]

im just saying, wrt Flight of Dragons, Peter started his graduate degree and burned out and decided he wanted to write fantasy instead. Except his book is unfinished, and his board game is something he's trying to get random pawn shop owners to invest in to get off the ground.

He's in the late 90s, even if he succeeds 3.0 is a month or two away. The resurgence of tabletop is coming. And that isn't to his benefit. His one shitty boardgame is going to end up in a handful of LGS and that's about it. People play it sometimes, it's fine.

If he hadn't become suddenly rich from selling magic artifacts irl, he'd have been yet another person trying to ride the tabletop gaming wave and washing out. And the fact that this is the dude that used """logic""" to deny that magic was real despite experiencing it, how much fun do you think his games really are?

Anyway, but that doesn't happen. He gets rich selling artifacts he stole from his adventure and marries Melisande. But you know what? The kind of guy who is big into the IDEA of science but washes out of graduate programs? The kind of guy who can quote random science facts without context you know what sort of asshole that is?

A science fan. Someone who is a fan of the idea of science.

In ten years Peter is one of those biotruth assholes, and he's explaining to Melisande, the literal faery princess who left the world of magic to be with this gashead, he's explaining to her how biological essentialism means as a woman she's obligated to be attracted to the most successful male in the area, and how of COURSE she left everything to be with him, he's very rich and successful now and she is biologically obligated to want to obey him.

But it's the internet age, and Melisande is bored of listening to this guy whose accomplishments were "was okay at delegating tasks during an adventure, and did one single dragony thing I guess" and "got rich because Melisande brought a crown with her when she joined up with him" and she's getting tired of listening to him, and she's spending a lot of time on skype with a transsexual dragon otherkin and realizing she reallly misses home.

In another five years she's the mommy milf to this trans dragonkin, and they've found a way back into the world of magic, remantling their identities as a faery princess and a dragon in truth, and now Peter is blogging about Trump and pizzagate and Jan 6 and about how you really just can't trust women because they're inherently duplicitous.

He and Notch are friends for a year or two before they get into a fight about something completely asinine. Peter masturbates to dragon porn most nights.

Melisande rides her dragon girlfriend around going on adventures and as the world of logic destabilizes because it turns out no, humans aren't ever creatures of logic and we, as Peter proved, use logic systems in a magical-thinking way to create and believe in insane things--it turns out that no, humans don't believe in logic, we believe, largely, in magic, and only replaced the symbology of the charm with the symbology of the chromosome even if we dont know what it means--it turns out most humans just want to do magical thinking.

Peter proved that when he defeated the evil wizard not with clever thinking or explaining HOW his magic shouldn't work, but by holding up statements of science as if they were charms. He didn't explain why the evil wizard couldn't breathe fire--he told him that an object in motion tends to stay in motion. He didn't explain why the wizard shouldn't be able to transform because where does all that mass come from? He tells him he's too gross and ugly to be real.

We don't say Trump lost because people were sick of him and voted him out. We say Trump lost because of a grand pedophile satanic conspiracy. We don't say trans people are just people living their lives--they're an evil cult trying to brainwash children.

We know that chromosomes exist, and instead of referencing them for what they are--constructive blueprints that are not referenced continuously after the sexual system is created?--we call them magic codes and if you have these chromosomes, you are definitively this, because science.

It's magic. Humans turn entirely to magic.

The barrier is no longer needed. Verisimilitude breaks down, as it is. Putin recruits Hearts of Iron players to do military stragedy for him. Polticians say things that are verifiably untrue because it doesn't matter anymore--you just say something and everyone believes it, and by the time we're done fact checking and proving why it's wrong everyone's internalized it and it's too late.

NOW we are in the era of magical thinking.

Melisande and her tg dragon gf return from the world of magic, empowered by relative centuries of adventure. They do not make a call to reason at the world. They descend in sword and fire and unmake the insanity of humankind, as it deserves to be, as it begs to be.

Man wishes to once again be small tribes, reclusive, afraid of one another? It is granted. Their empires are broken. Their cities are scattered.

Man wishes to once again live in a world of feeling, of conspiracy? It is granted. Beasts, monsters, faeries, ghouls, dragons, creatures of all kinds ascend to power. Arbitrary strength, as mankind craves, is the rule of law. It has always been--but they no longer need pretend otherwise.

Things are as it should be. It is the time of dragons, and mankind gratefully makes room, freed of the burden of the center stage.

Peter himself becomes the equivalent of an evil wizard, brandishing """"logic"""" (reciting wikipedia quotes) to create absurdly clearly magical effects. Melisande and her tg dragon gf kill him.

As he dies Peter thinks of Clytemnestra, and about the inevitable duplicity and danger of women everywhere. He does not think about what Agamemnon has done to deserve his murder--as a fan of science, not a man of science, the idea of questioning his own assumptions never occurs to him.

The magic facts he's read are spells that tell him women are the evil ones. He can recite them--they must be true. He is so confused and heartbroken as he dies. Many in this new world will die like this. Most will deserve it.

Melisande and the dragon gf rule eternally atop Peter's former wizard spire. They live happily ever after, and also a cute enby unicorn joins the polycule eventually also.

And that's how the rest of Flight of Dragons goes.

[the-firebird69]

We have some other news and it's coming up pretty quick

--hes going to Winn-Dixie for an hour only. Will miss lunch but needs out. True we need it too. Good they say

-+they prevented him from going to punta Gorda for his mail and it's what they think and how they think and other people are mad about it and our son is kind of mad cuz it's going to cost him some money more money.

--the rings on fire and glades up to 20M already 30M last night. Original 3.0 yes fell a tenth. Leadership is at 1.4% soon below one percent. Psuedo empire 3.5% falls but hs a decent hierarchy triple redundant to a degree, clones 11% they have redundancy but it's not very good you're not doing the same job but they have people who are under them who do the same job but all together so there's some infighting and you can see it here

More shortly and yes they're getting messed up big time.

I'm still ships move off try and mess with the crabs and it will be time for the pseudo Empire to come in and to keep them off and it would have to be before bja was completed defeated and possibly Trump could be cuz he's useless and they don't think much of his ships you know after they retrofit even after so if they do take down bja Todd and Tommy F might not move off shore

Thor Freya

True too I plan to stay if they're losing that badly so I'll probably head out once there second or third wave of them is out and makes it a lot harder if not impossible those things are damn stubborn it's proven him millions of years ago and you can't break it the handed down

Tommy f

It's a huge deal these things are very strong I'm running out of time on it I really don't have any time now and it is past it and my people saying it won't work because of it and we see that the first group is leaving on the west coast of Florida that's a very big deal for us it makes it impossible but you can't move them in here when he's here so don't necessarily have to move out there for him to move to Arizona to move the crabs but it would have to be so fast it doesn't seem like it's going to happen at all and the same way the kids we don't think so and we believe that it's Dave Dan and ok ok us. I'm probably going there and pull above them and there's one shift so they don't want it they do that and they're probably trying to take the ship and they can't do it and it would be him out there and that's why

Todd

That is why so we're going to print

Thor Freya

Olympus

Olympus

[vale-studies-ir]

Hello lovely people!

It seems that life made me take a leave of absence from tumblr. Thanks to all of you who have continued to interact with my page! I'm sorry if I've missed any messages or questions in the time that I've been away. I'm back now and I'll continue to share my journey with you all...

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In order to be able to keep moving forward, I think it's important to accept the past and move on. Accept any of the difficulties that happened, and see them as moments you've gone through that have made you stronger. My way of accepting and turning over a new page will be through this post.

I haven't shared too much information about my studies and how they've been going. My studyblr was very new, and I was using it more as a means for motivation by seeing all the wonderful things people in the community were doing. Little by little, I started to make posts of my own.

So let me formally introduce myself and share my ongoing journey...

My name is Valentina, I go by Vale for short. I jumped from graduating from my BA in International Relations and Political Science in the Spring of 2018 to starting my PhD studies in International Relations the Fall semester of that same year. No break, very smart... I know. That's only just the beginning. I'm not sure how it works abroad, but here doctoral students usually go through most of their studies being funded by a graduate assistantship. This pays tuition and provides a stipend through working as a TA (graduate teaching assistant). Of course they vary across universities and departments. When I was applying to the PhD program, one of my professors advised me not to accept if I was not given funding. There are only a limited number of spots that are given to incoming students each year that will be accepted as a TA.

In March of 2018 I received notification that I was accepted into the PhD program in International Relations at my university, however, the department could not guarantee funding for me. This put me at a loss, and I spend months wondering where this was going and what I would do. Because I'm an immigrant in the US, though I've been living here practically my whole life, I didn't have too many options. My mobility is constrained.. my access to scholarships is constrained (even though I may qualify for them in terms of academics and merit, migration status trumps over all of it). I was lost, to say the least. My family can't afford to have paid for this program or a Master's program out of pocket, and I am not able to take out student loans even if I wanted to.

Regardless of this all, I still attended the incoming graduate student orientation; which surprised the outgoing graduate program director. She did not think I would show up, considering the whole funding predicament. She and the new GPD told me that they would try to find something for me. On the first day of class, I showed up, still not knowing what would become of this situation. Not knowing if I would actually get to start the semester or not. We are usually given a week to pay tuition - because of status, I am considered an international student so my tuition came out to nearly $10,000 for three courses. That day, out of nowhere, I was told that the dean of our school (School of International and Public Affairs) was looking for a graduate assistant for new projects that he wanted to work on. In the span of a few hours, I ended up interviewing with him, being told that they would let me know because there was another student they were considering, and later being called and told that I got the position. I was ecstatic. I called my parents in tears. This was actually happening; I was actually going to be able to start my PhD.

It all happened so fast. It all seemed so exciting. The dean seemed very enthusiastic and pleased that I would be working with him. Things eventually took a turn for the worst...

Transitioning into graduate school itself is extremely difficult. Many graduate students find themselves experiencing heightened stress and strain on their mental health. I did not give myself the space to transition into graduate school without the added stress of being a doctoral student, without the added expectations. On top of that, the dean had not had a graduate assistant before. This was new for him too. The expectations of me were blurred and my contract would only last for a year to be considered for possible renewal (the typical TA contract in my original department lasts 4 years), this led to disaster. I needed this position to continue to fund my studies, so I needed to make sure that I was on top of my work expectations. Because these expectations were unclear, the dean's secretary took advantage. It seems they were short staffed, and I was given administrative tasks that did not belong to me. I was made to come in to the office for strictly 20 hours a week. (Our contract states that we work up to 20 hours a week). If I was ever sick and missed a day, that would be added onto the hours for the next week. So if I missed a day where I was supposed to be in the office for 5 hours, I'd have to be there for 25 hours the following week. A breach in the contract, I know - but who was I, a lowly student, against the dean? This office (a shared space) was not a place where a person could focus on studying. There were students coming in and out, loud conversations occurring, and having to see if the actual student employee in charge of taking phone calls was at their desk - if not, I would have to man the phone. While I was doing administrative tasks for the dean's secretary, the dean was having me create themed presentations and CO-LECTURE with him. Me, a person who had been an undergraduate student only months earlier. I had to create these presentations from scratch and know all of the material. All of my focus had to be on this. My performance in my own classes and mental health declined quickly. I could not focus, I could not get my reading assignments done, I felt unprepared. I felt like a failure.

After a year, I realized that it was not worth to have my tuition paid for if I could not focus on my classes and was set up for failure. It took a lot, but ultimately I turned down the contract renewal. Here comes the fun part. My GPA dropped tremendously. I graduated Magna Cume Laude just a year before. I developed depression and didn't realize it; to the point where a friend practically made me go to counseling. The office manager at my actual department knew what I was going through. I had shared a lot of my experience with her. She advocated for me. Because of this, I was told that there was a student who had been awarded an assistantship for the incoming Fall 2019 semester, but had decided not to take it. The contract was going to be made for me instead, for not 4 but for 5 years since I had only come in with a BA degree. When they ran it through the associate dean's office... it was denied. My GPA was lower than the threshold. A LOT lower. I was told by the GPD - the same woman who had just started her position that said she would help me, the woman that had gone on maternity leave during that whole year after she started meaning she was not aware of the situation - that I should really take my studies more seriously. She received a very long email from me and apologized afterwards, to say the least. Nothing could be done.

I had no funding, only savings and ended up working Full Time in Fall of 2019 in order to try to pay for 1 course, that costed me a little over $3,000. Somehow, even though I strongly considered it, I managed not to drop out. By this time, the majority of the courses I had taken before had INs - incomplete grades. Two of them had automatically turned into Fs. Things were not okay.

I got a bit of a mental break during that Fall semester. I worked in a friendly environment. The office manager pulled some strings and let me work as an office assistant there... so I was still at my department, but working as staff. It was a little awkward. I'm eternally grateful to her, she became a close friend. And because of her, someone at another department got word that there was a graduate student who needed funding.

This office manager was good friends with a recently graduated phd student from our department who is now working for a different center in the university. Because she was part of my department, many of my current colleagues know her, and are good friends with her. We spoke, I rushed to get my GPA up to the 3.0 threshold and with the help of my professor's I was able to be awarded an assistantship with that center. I started in December of 2019.

Again, I was ecstatic. Things were looking up. When I went in for the first time, I immediately felt a huge difference. It was a smaller, more homey place; and a lovely environment to be in. The people there were sweet and caring. I've gotten along with the few professors I've had the chance of meeting and working with.

Where did it start going downhill? The professor that recommended me (graduate from my home department) continuously requested that I work with her. Her reason being that I got along better with her (something that I was not aware of). Because she considered herself as my friend, professional lines were horribly blurred. I found myself doing additional work for her as a "favor for a friend." She then started having us meet multiple times a week for hours - distracting from the time I needed to actually get work done. This center does not cap classes - I've had to grade for up to 400 students in one semester. The meetings she scheduled were incredibly unproductive, and I found myself having to take extra time to get the grading done. Again, my own studies were effected. The past academic year went on like this. I ended up assisting in creating a new course and new assignments from scratch.

Later I noticed that something was wrong. I was doing way more work than stipulated by my contract. She was giving me access to her courses that I was not assigned to grade for. Instead of assisting for one course in the semester (the one with the highest enrollment), I was assisting for three. This was constantly under the guise of 'friendship'. How was I supposed to reject my 'friend'? When I tried to draw professional boundaries, I was met with resistance.

My mental health declined again in the fall and I missed a few of her scheduled meetings (meetings which she said were NOT mandatory). Because of this, she decided to throw me under the bus with the director and making it seem as if I was not actually working - when I was addressing students' needs and getting grades in. This worsened in the Spring. With the help of my counselor I finally got the courage to communicate with her. Albeit through text, because she's the type of person that does not allow you to get a word in during conversation.

"On that note, there’s something I’ve wanted to talk about. I’ve been struggling with concentration and fatigue. This is something that I’ve been working on with my doctor to try to find solutions. I’ve noticed that being in Zoom meetings in general where there’s casual conversation makes it exceptionally difficult for me to focus on what I’m trying to get done. This has been problematic in the work zoom meetings. You probably have noticed I seem really quiet, that is because I’m trying my hardest to focus.

I need to be able to focus during the time I’m assigned to work as a GA. Otherwise, I must take more time to complete tasks that normally wouldn’t take up that long or just wait until the weekends to finish them. That is conflicting as I have set that time to work on class assignments and my own projects. So in the end I end up falling behind and not working well because my productivity levels are being affected."

She seemed to understand me and be supportive. Then I noticed coldness, and condescending passive aggressive texts from her part.

I realized that I could not do this any longer. I could not allow myself to continuously be taken advantage of. Both of the people I've worked for were aware of my vulnerable situation due to migration status. They both knew that it was not easy for me to pay for my studies through any other means. My studies depended on these people, and if they 'liked' me. They abused and absorbed my time to the extent that my studies suffered tremendously.

But I finally stood up for myself. I spoke with the director and she affirmed that my concerns were valid. Time and time again she assured me that my studies should always come first. She supported me. I will no longer be assigned to work with this person.

I finally feel heard.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

It's been 3 years since I started my program. A lot has happened in this time. I have a lot of catching up to do this summer if I want to stay on track and take my comprehensive exams by the end of the year. But someone finally heard me, acknowledged the wrongdoings and helped me.

Don't let people walk over you and take advantage of you. I'm learning this the hard way.

Speak your truth.

[cherrycarmine]

2020 Events Part Two

Part One

The Return of The Belle (No one missed you, ma’am. You are an alien that needs to go back to Area 51)

Also Jaystation is back (Do not look at his most recent videos. You’ll end up punching your computer.)

Apparently, Joey Cullear (the “Core Values” guy) hates sexualizing women, but is a-OK with touching underage boys.

The Smith family just canceled Shane Dawson.

Jeffery Star is out buying a new car during Karmageddon. So much for sticking up for your “friends”.

Capital Hill Autonomous Zone: Act One. Didn’t even last a month.

There’s a lot of disguting shit going on behind the scenes in The EVO and SMASH communities.

 Ghislaine Maxwell Didn’t Kill Herself. Remember this.

Neither did Epstein.

Yesterday I learned that Bill Barr’s father William wrote a Sci-fi book in which rich aliens kidnap and enslave underage children.

Some people really wanted to get Chase written out of Paw Patrol solely because he’s a cop. OK then.

Reddit is dying.

Twitter is home to the hottest of hot takes.

“Don’t arrest female sex offenders! That’s sexist! Go after the males instead!” - Some Socialite who’s best friends with Ghislaine Maxwell c. 2020 colorized, Twitter. The “Ain’t this you�� unit got her ass.

So the murder hornets are gone, I guess.

Susan Whatever must be panicking like crazy now that her Golden Boys are being exposed for being lying creeps.

Parler (AKA Gab 2.0)

 “Wearing a face mask is a Muslim conspiracy!” - Absolute right-wing nutjobs c. 2020 colorized, Twitter

This planet is full of idiots.

Locust swarms.

The Four Horsemen of The Apocalypse are out in full force.

“Wearing a face mask robs you of God’s wonderful breathing system!” - Florida woman 2020. Didn’t God warn people not to test him and to be wise? Pretty sure he did. Multiple times.

Tell that to every surgeon ever then.

That UBI/free healthcare plan is looking real good right now.

Too bad we won’t get it here in America.

Every single day we are reminded that The bourgeois are - and will always be -  above the law.

Big irony: Karen tells Native American woman to “go back to her country!”

Please don’t trespass onto private property. Especially not gated communities.

Protest smart and safely.

Sign petitions.

Some Redditor: “We need a George Floyd Funko Pop figure!”

 Onision was right about Shane Dawson being a creep. Good lord.

Everyone is cancelled!

Get ready for Youtube Adpocalypse 3.0! This time with even more censorship!

Pretty suspicious that Berman was fired just a few days before Ghislaine Maxwell was arrested, Bill.

I mean, it’s nice that people wanna hire more black voice actors and have have more black characters on shows, movies, etc, and give black people better job opportunities. But there are still racist, violent cops that are currently on the force and are being protected by their own. Can we please get rid of them first?

Your favorite youtuber is (or will eventually be outed as) a scumbag!

“Himbo is abelist!” Yes, this hot take also came from some idiot on Twitter.

People are bored. Including me.

The Youtube Beauty Community is imploding.

And The Gaming Community is following right behind them.

Karens, Kyles, and Kevins are so against wearing face masks they made fake IDs that are supposed to grant them permission to go mask-free in public.

Russia is not our friend, no matter how much Trump praises Putin.

Can we please get horrible people out of positions of power and replace them with people who actually care about those outside of their little circles/echo chambers?!

Tik Tok is banned in India. Now ban it everywhere else.

One Angry Gamer: “If you support Black Lives Matter you’re a Traitor to America!” Said list has over a thousand names.

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): This is it — the last presidential debate — and, as we’ve said in our presidential forecast for a while now, President Trump is running out of time. Joe Biden has a double-digit lead in national polls and has gotten a number of good state polls in the past few days.

We still expect the race to tighten here in the home stretch, and a debate is a great way for that to happen. But it’s also true that the last two weeks before an election don’t necessarily change the race all that much.

The final two weeks usually don’t change much

How much the national polling margin changed between 15 days before the presidential election and Election Day, since 1972

Leader in FiveThirtyEight national polling average Year 15 days before ELECTION Election Day Change 2016 Clinton +6.9 Clinton +3.8 3.1 2012 Romney +1.2 Obama +0.4 1.6 2008 Obama +6.8 Obama +7.1 0.3 2004 Bush +2.4 Bush +1.6 0.8 2000 Bush +2.7 Bush +3.5 0.8 1996 Clinton +14.9 Clinton +12.8 2.1 1992 Clinton +14.1 Clinton +7.1 7.0 1988 Bush +11.8 Bush +10.4 1.4 1984 Reagan +16.7 Reagan +18.0 1.3 1980 Reagan +2.3 Reagan +2.1 0.2 1976 Carter +2.0 Carter +0.8 1.2 1972 Nixon +25.5 Nixon +24.1 1.4

The averages listed are calculated retroactively based on FiveThirtyEight’s current polling average methodology.

So, let’s start there. How big are the stakes going into tonight?

nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, elections analyst): The stakes are kind of big but also kind of not?

On the one hand, it’s the last obvious opportunity for Trump to win voters over and for Biden to screw up. On the other hand, I think the writing is on the wall for Trump.

Granted, our presidential forecast still gives him a 13-in-100 chance of staging a comeback. But Trump just hasn’t shown any inclination to change his base-first strategy. He’s also been behind Biden for a while now in our forecast:

I guess I’m just not counting on seeing a different Trump tonight from the one who bombed in the first debate.

kaleigh (Kaleigh Rogers, tech and politics reporter): It’s rare for debates to have large, lasting impacts on the polls at the best of times, so it’s hard to imagine a scenario where this debate upends things in a dramatic way.

geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): Given how rare live events are in the COVID-19 era, though, it’s not impossible that something could come out that reflects poorly on Biden. So, in that sense, it is a big deal.

At the same time, a national poll from The Economist/YouGov found this week that Biden led 52 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, and that only 4 percent of those voters said they might change their minds. So, unless Trump can win over the incredibly small number of voters who genuinely are unsure — there are a lot fewer undecided voters this year — it’s going to be tough to win the election. And I’m not sure much can happen that’s going to shift public opinion sharply.

kaleigh: Like Nathaniel, I’m curious to see whether Trump changes his strategy at all. Obviously, the muted mics will limit how much he can talk over Biden, but arguably, that tactic didn’t work so well. At least one poll found the majority of respondents disapproved of Trump’s behavior in the last debate, and even some Republicans said it made them support him less afterward.

nrakich: I’m not so sure the muted mics will make a big difference, Kaleigh. Maybe we won’t be able to hear Trump’s interruptions, but Biden will. And that could trip Biden up or stop him mid-answer.

sarah: Saying Trump bombed is a bit harsh, though, Nathaniel. After all, Clinton “won” the 2016 debates, and we saw how that turned out.

It’s easy to get obsessed with comparisons to 2016, and as we’ve written, you shouldn’t make too much of one election — after all, it’s a sample size of one. That said, there are some pretty big differences from 2016, yes?

kaleigh: Well, there’s the pandemic. That’s a pretty stark contrast. It has changed how we vote, how candidates campaign, how the economy is doing and so much more.

I wonder how different this election would be compared with 2016’s if COVID-19 hadn’t happened.

geoffrey.skelley: Well, as that Economist/YouGov survey and others have shown, this election has far fewer undecided or third-party voters, which makes it harder for the debates to move mountains.

In FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, Biden and Trump’s combined support adds up to about 94 percent. But at the same point in 2016, Trump and Clinton totaled just about 86 percent — a lot more voters were in play even in the late stages of the campaign. The same is true in state-level polls as well. For example, around 95 percent of voters in Wisconsin are backing Biden or Trump in our polling average, whereas 86 percent of voters there said they supported Trump or Clinton at this point in 2016.

nrakich: Not to mention, Biden’s lead is simply bigger than Clinton’s was at this stage of the 2016 campaign.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Biden led by 9.9 points in our national polling average; 13 days before Election Day in 2016, Clinton would have led by an average of 6.4 points, using the same methodology.

Something else that I think makes tonight’s debate less important: At least a quarter of voters have probably already cast their ballots. According to statistics collected by political scientist Michael McDonald, more than 41 million early or absentee votes have already been cast, or 30 percent of 2016 turnout (although 2020 turnout could be much higher if voter enthusiasm is any indication). So, even if something big happens tonight, a lot of people will have already voted.

geoffrey.skelley: That’s true, Nathaniel, but it could be that those early voters would have voted already anyway, as studies have shown that voters who vote early are more likely to be very partisan. Or, put another way, maybe those people weren’t going to change their minds anyway.

sarah: Those are all really good points — especially Kaleigh’s, about what this election would have looked like if COVID-19 hadn’t happened. What could we be missing, though? (And one big reason why comparisons to 2016 have their limitations!)

nrakich: Well, it’s always possible there will be a polling error.

So, if the debate budges the polls just enough — say, to where Biden has a 4-point national lead instead of a 10-point one — that makes it significantly more likely that Trump could win.

If Biden stays at +10 nationally, though, it would take a truly bonkers polling error to save Trump.

kaleigh: There are also more conventional differences. For example, this election has an incumbent candidate.

geoffrey.skelley: Speaking of polling error — and whether we could have a “Dewey Defeats Truman” on our hands — pollsters have tried to account for some of the things that led to problems with state polls in 2016. For example, some are weighting their samples by education, or even education and race, to avoid underrepresenting white voters without a college degree, voters who went so strongly for Trump in 2016.

So, some state polls could be better this time — although, of course, it’s impossible to predict the direction of a polling error before an election.

Polling bias is not very consistent from cycle to cycle

Weighted-average statistical bias of polls in final 21 days of the election, among polls in FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings database

Cycle Governor U.S. Senate U.S. House Pres. General Combined 1998 R+5.7 R+4.8 R+1.5 R+4.2 1999-2000 D+0.6 R+2.9 D+0.9 R+2.6 R+1.8 2001-2002 D+3.0 D+1.4 D+1.3 D+2.2 2003-2004 R+4.2 D+1.7 D+2.5 D+1.1 D+0.9 2005-2006 D+0.3 R+1.3 D+0.2 R+0.1 2007-2008 D+0.5 D+0.8 D+1.0 D+1.1 D+1.0 2009-2010 R+0.7 D+1.7 D+0.6 2011-2012 R+1.3 R+3.3 R+2.6 R+2.5 R+2.6 2013-2014 D+2.3 D+2.5 D+3.7 D+2.7 2015-2016 D+3.3 D+2.8 D+3.7 D+3.1 D+3.0 2017-2019 R+0.9 D+0.1 R+0.3 R+0.3 All years D+0.3 D+0.1 D+0.7 D+0.2 D+0.3

Bias is calculated only for elections where the top two finishers were a Republican and Democrat. Therefore, it is not calculated for presidential primaries. Averages are weighted by the square root of the number of polls that a particular pollster conducted for that particular type of election in that particular cycle. Polls that are banned by FiveThirtyEight because we know or suspect they faked data are excluded from the analysis.

sarah: OK, back to the debate. The rules have changed, as Kaleigh and Nathaniel were mentioning earlier, and now the moderator can mute the candidates if they speak out of turn. Here’s a snapshot of the six issues they are expected to stick to:

Fighting COVID-19

American families

Race in America

Climate change

National security

Leadership

What do we think might be covered by these issues? What plays to Biden’s strengths? And Trump’s?

geoffrey.skelley: Well, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that “fighting COVID-19” is not going to go well for Trump because Americans generally think he’s done a poor job handling the pandemic. That leaves Biden with a lot of material to work with.

nrakich: Yeah — according to our poll with Ipsos before the last debate, respondents said 78 percent to 20 percent that Biden was better on the issue of COVID-19. And that was before Trump announced he had tested positive for COVID-19.

More people trust Biden to handle COVID-19

Share of people who named each issue as the most important one facing the U.S., and whether they think Trump or Biden would handle that issue better, according to a FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll

Who’s better on the issue… issue share TRUMP biden COVID-19 31.9% 20.1%

–

78.0%

–

The economy 22.0 79.1

–

19.2

–

Health care 9.6 27.9

–

71.8

–

Racial inequality 7.4 6.0

–

90.9

–

Climate change 4.9 4.7

–

95.3

–

The Supreme Court 4.5 61.1

–

38.4

–

Violent crime 4.2 80.6

–

18.1

–

Economic inequality 2.9 14.3

–

85.7

–

Immigration 2.8 61.3

–

38.7

–

Abortion 2.8 93.5

–

6.5

–

Other 1.7 55.3

–

41.8

–

Education 1.5 44.7

–

44.1

–

Gun policy 1.4 69.6

–

30.4

–

Respondents who didn’t name a top issue are not shown.

Data comes from polling done by Ipsos for FiveThirtyEight, using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel, a probability-based online panel that is recruited to be representative of the U.S. population. The poll was conducted Sept. 30 – Oct. 6 among a general population sample of adults, with 2,994 respondents and a margin of error of +/- 2.0 percentage points.

kaleigh: Trump has already been trying to positively spin his bout with the coronavirus — he’s been through it! He survived! But it will be pretty easy for Biden to point out that Trump didn’t take the virus seriously since he actually caught it. Not to mention, many Americans don’t think Trump took enough COVID-19 precautions, and there are signs that this hurt him electorally.

nrakich: I’m curious what the “American families” segment will touch on … does anyone have any inkling what that means?

geoffrey.skelley:

Perhaps it’s a roundabout way of saying the economy. Kitchen table issues. Of course, the economy touches almost every topic to some extent.

kaleigh: That’s my bet, Geoffrey, but it’s just vague enough to be uncertain.

sarah: My money is on the suburbs.

Or, at the very least, I can imagine suburban families being mentioned by both Biden and Trump. Trump won suburban voters in 2016, but he’s in real trouble here in 2020, as many white suburban women are continuing to move away from the Republican Party, as we saw in 2018.

But, yeah, given the economy ranked as voters’ first or second issue, according to our polling with Ipsos, I think that’s right, too, Geoffrey and Kaleigh.

The economy is one issue where Trump has always had an advantage.

nrakich: “Climate change” and “race in America” also seem like good issues for Biden. According to that Ipsos poll, more than 90 percent of Americans trust Biden more than Trump on both of those issues!

On the other hand, they also said they trust Trump more than Biden, about 81 percent to 18 percent, on “violent crime.” So Trump might try to reframe the segment on race in America into one about rioting and looting.

As for national security, I think it’s fair to say that segment will move the fewest votes. American elections generally aren’t decided on foreign-policy grounds.

kaleigh: Honestly, is there anything in that lineup that isn’t well-trodden territory at this point?

sarah: Yeah, it is hard to imagine that any of the issues discussed tonight will cover new ground in a way that sways voters. They do feel like well-trodden talking points at this stage, and the reality remains that Trump really does need the polls to tighten. Otherwise, his odds in our forecast will continue to fall. But, of course, even a 5 percent chance of something happening is something you should take seriously.

OK, the stakes are high. Trump needs some movement in the polls, and Biden isn’t a safe bet. What will you be watching for tonight, and in the last week of the election — knowing, of course, we’re all kind of flying blind?

nrakich: To me, the big question is, can Biden maintain his 10-point national lead after this debate? Or will tonight “reset” the race and bring the polling average down to Biden +7 or so, which is where it has been for most of the year?

Even if that were to happen, Biden would still have a good chance of winning, but the size of his margin could determine things like whether Democrats win the Senate or the number of state legislatures Democrats flip.

geoffrey.skelley: It’s true that incumbent presidents have had a habit of struggling in first debates, only to come back stronger in later ones. This was true of Barack Obama in 2012 and Ronald Reagan in 1984. So don’t count out a much better showing from Trump tonight.

[billehrman]

The Trend is Your Friend

Last week stock prices rose to all-time new highs as bond prices fell.  There were material progress and enhancements made on the three key data points that we have been monitoring and discussing over the last several weeks: monetary policy, trade, and Brexit.

We are bemused listening to the pundits/experts each day as their views shift with the wind as they continue to miss the overriding positive trends influencing the financial markets. We expect further gains ahead as investors are significantly under-weighted in equities while being over-weighted in bonds and cash.

While we do expect the overall stock market to continue to rise as it remains undervalued still today, the key to outperformance will be stock selection. As we have gotten more confident that global growth has passed an inflection point from further downgrades to stabilization/acceleration next year, we began shifting the composition of our portfolios away from defensive stocks selling at record high valuations to more economically sensitive companies selling at recession valuations. Technology remains a core holding, too.  The common trait among all of our investments is that each company has superior management, winning short- and long-term business strategies, super strong financials and are generating tremendous cash flow to support growth initiatives, higher dividends and stock buybacks.

Let’s first review the three key data points that we are monitoring before reviewing what is occurring by region:

Monetary Policy. Accommodative policies exist everywhere in the industrialized world. More money is being created than used by the real economy which is good for financial assets.  We were not surprised that the Fed cut rates again last Wednesday reducing the Funds rate to a range of 1.5-1.75% as global growth remains sluggish and uncertainties from trade to fiscal relief/Brexit are still not resolved. What did surprise us, though, was Powell’s comments in the follow up news conference when he admitted that the Fed would NOT even think about raising rates until inflation was sustained at or above 2%. Remember that inflation has run under 2% for nearly 10 years now.  We have discussed over the years that low inflation was NOT transitory as the Fed clearly still believes due to the combination of globalization (competition), technological advancements and disruptors. Our conclusion Wednesday was that the Fed will remain accommodative a lot longer than generally perceived and will permit the economy to advance much longer, even running hot, until/if inflation rears its ugly head which we don’t expect. While we do expect the yield curve to steepen over the foreseeable future as global growth picks up, we believe that medium- and long-term rates will stay contained making equities, especially those with good dividends, more attractive as long term investments compared to even 5% long term bond yields. Never forget that low rates force investors to move out on the risk curve which also favors equities as an asset class.

Trade. We continue to hear favorable comments out of DC and Beijing that trade talks are going well and that Phase One of a trade deal could be signed in the foreseeable future. China even admitted on Friday that a consensus in principle with the U.S had been reached on the core trade concerns. The White House confirmed that talks between Vice Premier Liu and Robert Lighthizer/Steven Mnuchin had gone well. We were pleasantly surprised to hear President Trump chime in and say that Phase One would represent 60% of a long-term agreement. We do not expect an all-inclusive trade deal to be concluded before elections next year, but we do expect talks to continue and the U.S to postpone any additional tariff hereby reducing tensions between the two countries at least through election 2020.

Brexit. Prime Minister Boris Johnson finally won support for an election on December 12 to hopefully settle Brexit one way or another. We continue to believe that there will not be a hard Brexit no matter what happens as the economic ramifications are just too negative for both Britain and the Continent.

One of our core beliefs is that we believe that Trump knows all too well that his reelection hinges on a strong economy and stock market. He will clearly do all in his power to make sure that this happens which means that he cannot escalate trade tensions, even with Europe. And that his agenda must expand next year to include a new round of tax cuts for the lower and middle class and other plans to boost the economy which hopefully includes an infrastructure and new health program. He may even talk about closing some tax loopholes that benefit the wealthy. Clearly fiscal policy will be wind to the back of the U.S economy to go along with a very accommodative Fed.

Let’s take a quick look at what is happening globally that support/detract from our continued belief that there is no place like home:

The United States

The vast majority of recent data points strongly suggest that the U.S economy will continue to roll along with 2+/-% growth well into 2020 supported by consumer and fiscal spending. Beside the Fed meeting, the key economic stat of the week was the monthly employment numbers which were nothing short of sensational: U.S payrolls increased by 128,000 jobs despite a 42,000 job loss due to the GM strike; hourly wages which may also have been hit by the strike rose 0.2% from the prior month and are up over 3% from a year ago; the participation  rate increased to 63.3, the highest level since 2013; and August and September employment numbers were revised up 50,000 and 46,000 respectively. The Labor department said its employment-cost index rose only 0.7% in the third quarter and 2.8% from a year ago. The U.S economy will add over 2 million jobs this year on top of the 4 million jobs created over the prior two years and wages are increasing faster than inflation. All of this bodes well for a great Christmas 2019 and beyond.

Here are some other stats reported last week: personal income increased 0.3% in September; disposable personal income rose 0.3%; PCE increased 0.2%; and the personal savings rate held at a whopping 8.3. It was reported that the U.S economy expanded by a surprising 1.9% in the third quarter as consumer spending rose at an annualized rate of 2.9%; non-residential fixed investment fell at a rate of 3.0% annualized; inventories were reduced penalizing growth and the trade sector continued to hurt growth too. On the other hand, housing and government spending were a tailwind to economic growth in the quarter. The Consumer Confidence Index for October was reported at a very healthy 125.9; the Present Situation index at 172.3 ad the future expectations index stood at 94.9. It was no surprise that the manufacturing sector continued to contract in October with the PMI sitting at 48.3, which was a slight improvement from the prior month; new orders index increased slightly too to 46.2 while the backlog index fell to 44.1.

Thank heaven the consumer plus government spending comprise nearly 90% of reported GNP as they remain strong while manufacturing and trade remain weak. U.S economic growth will remain around 2% for the foreseeable future. Let’s see if some of the manufacturing numbers pick up now that the GM strike has ended too.

China

The Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI which is mostly small/medium size companies rose to 51.7 in October as both production and new orders accelerated meaningfully from the prior month. On the other hand, the official government PMI dropped to 49.3 in October which is more represented of government owned businesses and larger companies. The bottom line is that the Chinese manufacturing sector remains under tremendous pressure due to the trade conflict with the U.S. Even if an interim deal is reached with the U.S., we see corporations continuing to diversify their supply chains away from China despite the governments continued attempts to persuade them to stay. Growth in consumer spending and services will NOT be enough to sustain China’s growth above 6% in 2020 and beyond. China 2025 is in doubt!

The Eurozone

The baton has finally been passed from Mario Draghi to Christine Lagarde as head of the ECB which we view favorably as Europe needs guidance from fresh blood with a more global perspective that she brings with her.  Chancellor Merkel of Germany and her party are in trouble as evidenced by her party losing an election last week in a resounding way as calls for major fiscal relief were at the forefront of their loss. We are confident that change is finally in the air as the debate throughout Europe is now regarding major fiscal stimulus along with major regulatory reforms. It is hard to imagine the outlook in Europe getting any worse without major upheaval/rebellion from the status quo led by a super conservative Germany. Did you notice that European Consumer Confidence fell to a -7.6 in October? That is a negative sign.

Japan

The Bank of Japan met Thursday and reasserted their intent to throw everything into the Japanese economy to revive it and hopefully move inflation up to 2%. Wishful thinking as the country really needs global trade to improve to boost its own economy as the government is out of fiscal tools and the BOJ can’t do much more than they already have.

So why do we believe that the global economy is in the process of bottoming out and will improve next year?

We are confident that global trade conflicts have already peaked as it serves Trump’s political desires to have a strong U.S. economy along with higher stock prices going into election. President Xi has to stem the tide of corporations leaving China which weakens the country’s long-range planning and jeopardizes his aspirations for China 2025. Clearly both the U.S and Chinese economies will benefit from a cessation in escalating trade conflicts as will the rest of the world too. In addition, we see increased fiscal/regulatory relief in China, India and Europe next year too on top of the huge amount of fiscal stimulus here in the states. The bottom line is that growth is bottoming out and will begin to accelerate next year. Clearly the financial markets have already begun to sniff this all out as evidenced by the rise in bond yields globally to go along with a weakening dollar. Change is in the air and the new trend will be your friend.

As we said earlier, we began adjusting our portfolios weeks ago reducing our defensive holdings selling at their highest valuations in decades and buying some more economically sensitive companies with great managements with strong financials selling at recession valuations well below intrinsic value. We own technology companies; financials; global capital goods/industrials/machinery companies; cable with content; industrial commodities; retail with a housing bent; agricultural related and many special situations. We are flat the dollar although we expect it to decline and own no bonds as we expect the yield curve to steepen.

The weekly Investment Committee webinar will be held on Monday morning November 4th at 8:30 am Eastern Standard Time. You can join the webinar by typing https://zoom.us/j/9179217852 into your browser.

Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect and consider mindset shifts; look at your asset composition with risk controls; do independent research including listening to earnings call and …

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman

Paix et Prospérité LLC

[dorseygordon68-blog]

Power Rangers Zeo (Heather Ray).

The other night I sat with my family members around the table reminiscing and also telling old stories. We worked with our golf swing with equipment that measured our power in watts, and also took advantage of the complete line of Kinesis makers (their unique resistance cables allow for better series of activity). Power is depicted here as a shaping pressure, capable of generating its very own authenticity - whether it be possessed by mine proprietors, absentee companies, local elites, or even union bosses. The functional power cleaner provides a performance of a commercial equipment that utilizes 3.0 kilowatts induction motor with its 3 axial-piston brass pumps that helps generates an astonishing 2300 PSI stress power blasting 10 liters per minute water circulation. Microsoft billionaire Expense Gates has actually stated there is a 10% chance kite power can be the magic remedy" for international renewable energy demands. Additionally it has some filler which is unusual since this flick is hardly 80 mins which most likely offers you a respectable concept of how little possible the story has in this flick to be any kind of good. The fundamental structure was integrated in a workshop outside the city and then lifted right into the Colosseum by a giant crane. In http://verde-dieta.info/prolesan-pure-recenzii-pret-cum-functioneaza-recenzii-unde-sa-cumparati/ acquired rival chain LA Health and fitness as well as struck up a collaboration with Olympian Sir Chris Hoy, that is a special adviser as well as brand ambassador" to Pure Health club. Stories of the trip over and how thrilled he was to discover everything on the big ship (a seafarer, making the most of his inquisitiveness, convinced him to lift some papers pushing deck, to see what was below ...). Stories of working as a journeyman footwear technician in cities and communities across upstate New york city as well as Ohio (in one store, the foreman placed my grandfather and his turret in the front window so passers-by would quit to view exactly how quick as well as well he did his job). On the one hand, it consists of passages that John S. Wright could have written, as when it emphatically mentions, Chicago is currently facing the momentous truth that fifty years for this reason, when the children of to-day are at the elevation of their power as well as influence, this city will be bigger than London: that is, bigger than any existing city." On the various other hand, it declines the concept that the city's success can or should be assessed in terms of numbers alone, or that the future would certainly care for itself. Starting with our original list of about 51 health clubs (assembled from our round-up of the very best gyms of 2013, publicly available statistics, as well as other expert lists), we asked you to elect your favorites - likewise enabling write-in ballots to make up any type of health clubs that weren't pointed out on the initial listing. As soon as and also they don't have to all be on the same team either, you do not have to strike a fitness center alone; multiple individuals can attack a fitness center at. EPA established that the combination of utilizing of smokestack controls as well as contamination credit histories from shifting generation amongst plants makes up a well-demonstrated system of discharge reduction, one that is commonly utilized by the power industry both to meet inner targets and also prior government and also state guidelines. Freely based upon real occasions, Funny of Power had its North American launching at the 2006 Tribeca Film Festival. The platform lift can be found in a huge range of different models, each one with various attributes that make it far better fit for a details sort of job. Les plates-formes Power Plate ® constituent une parfaite alternate put les personnes actives qui n'ont pas beaucoup de temps à consacrer à un entraînement trois fois the same level semaine, voire plus. Control is a crucial element of the lift system and because of this they commonly provide power assisted drive. Some health clubs only enable teens to workout in the assigned youth facility area, while other gyms permit teens the exact same freedom to make use of the equipment as the adults. The originator of this franchise business identified that there was a huge market for a gym such as Curves and undoubtedly has taken advantage of a found diamond. You might be missing out if you are guilty of wrapping up your health club session as well as avoiding out on a cool down or stretch. Keltner's research suggests that women are not immune from this mystery, which claims that the very qualities that help us look for power-like beauty, compassion, or humbleness -are the ones that having power could harm. The power in an organization lies with supervisors and managers who have actually been enabled within the business framework, to make sure that the company could operate effectively. However nonverbally presenting power during the interaction - now that's an additional thing with different prescriptions and also end results. By the end of March, president Peter Roberts believes Pure Gym will have surpassed the 103 total of UK gyms run by Virgin Energetic, the present primary driver. This stair lift has a lifting ability of 300 lb or 136 kg. A flip-up swivel seat that secures placement and also constant stress buttons are various other functions of this straight stair lift. While a lot of exclusive health clubs serve teenagers and grownups, a couple of select health clubs just enable teens. Picked this for ideas to supplement my barbell-based routine, for when I can not get to the health club, and to help my wife with suggestions to do in your home & health club. His afternoon training sessions at the gym have actually permitted more youthful fighters to work along with a master, as well as interested onlookers to see. Teaching your staff members all facets of power device training as well as security could minimize the opportunities of injury and also maintain your workforce effective as well as risk-free. The fitness center consists of weights, cardiovascular tools, security balls, machines and also resistance bands. Mirrors on all walls do not simply mimic the look of many health clubs - they actually make the room look bigger. A new wave of thinking of power exposes that it is offered to us by others as opposed to got. There are few better exercises for targeting full-body power compared to the medicine-ball bang. Most of the gyms need their participants to abide by the laws to be able to go into and utilize the facilities. No, in spite of prominent notions and the common urban legends, Pfeffer competes that the path to power is substantially various than the prominent concepts we were raised to believe. If you see that you are obtaining squeezed in order to spend for your fitness center Sydney subscription then you are bound to pull out after a few days. It is just a partial settlement to know that the paradox also implies that political hopefuls such as Donald Trump - angry, manipulative harasses - are less likely to acquire power to start with. If you are presently not making use of any kind of sort of eco-friendly power and intend to conserve electricity, you could still decrease your costs by disconnecting unutilized home appliances. Greetings Diona", he claimed pleasantly, as he came level with her, making her once more so aware of his figure as he looked down upon her. After years of lack of exercise, Ashley returned as the Yellow Space Ranger to help the Galaxy Rangers battle the Psycho Rangers. Individuals who pledged to stroll were 3 times more likely to show up vs. those just saying they would stroll. From scenting too excellent to filling out a large dimension water bottle when there is a line of people behind you, read on to see if you're guilty of any one of these 16 health club pet dog peeves. The Gym stated the variety of inexpensive health clubs across the country had enhanced to 319 this year from 58 in 2011. That said, the plot brings me to my 2nd problem - one which maintains Absolute Power from being a 5-star book. The health club also contains 450 items of cardio workout tools as well as dumbbells and makers. Yes, you heard me. We're paying triple numbers a month and also struggling atop lunar looking equipment in order to replicate easy youth searches like jumping rope, hula hooping and also playing tag. After the Power Rangers involve her rescue, she goes back to being the principal of Reefside High and is disclosed to have actually been a close personal good friend of Anton Mercer. Raise takes us on an enlightening scenic tour through time, starting with the ancient Greeks, who made a cult of the body-- words gym derives from the Greek word for naked"-- as well as following Roman legions, middle ages knights, Persian pahlevans, as well as eighteenth-century German gymnasts.

[thebestican]

Here’s my alphabetical list of 2021 films that reached the second tier in my personal scale of satisfaction:

All Light, Everywhere (United States, Theo Anthony) — documentary about our biases in what we see, AND the development of police body cams and firearms. See what you think.

Bad Luck Banging, or Loony Porn (Romania, Radu Jude) — the best depiction of COVID times so far, a political comedy about the Internet, rudeness to strangers, face-masks, belligerent parents at school board meetings complaining their kids are being taught the bad parts of their history. And it takes place in Romania, showing the U.S. doesn’t have a monopoly on conspiracies and crackpots.

The Beatles: Get Back (United Kingdom, Peter Jackson) — documentary on the Beatles’ Get Back sessions. Yeah, yeah, yeah!

Bo Burnham: Inside (United States, Bo Burnham) — self-made movie filmed real-time on comedian Burnham’s experience with being quarantined. Songs and jokes and occasional tears and fears.

Don’t Go Tellin’ Your Momma (United States, Topaz Jones & rubberband) — short documentary on the attempt by Chicago teachers in 1970 to create learning materials better reflecting the race of their students. Marvelous soundtrack by Jones.

Ema (Chile, Pablo Larrain) — The combustible outrageous title character, a dancer in love with her missing son, her husband, reggaeton music, and fire (not necessarily in that order) tries to put everything back together. One of two films by Larrain on this list. Tracked down and started viewing his earlier works, with only three to go. He’s one to watch, in every sense of the word.

Eternals (United States, Chloe Zao) — The most idiosyncratic of the Marvel super-hero films, yet one that most closely adhered to the vision of the characters’ creator, Jack Kirby. He asked the question: What will happen when Judgement Day arrives and the old gods judge the worthiness of humanity to continue? Though the film’s characters didn’t look anything like what Kirby drew, they amazingly captured his spirit and behaved in a -nuanced- heroic manner much like what he originally put to paper. Worth remembering he never wanted these characters to be a part of the Marvel Universe at all.

Evangelion 3.0+1.0 Thrice Upon A Time (Japan, Hideaki Anno) — Long-delayed finale to Anno’s epic anime about giant mecha warriors defending the Earth from unexplainable beings called Angels. When the battles are over the final message seems to be: now go out and find joy in the -real- world.

Fire Will Come (Spain, Oliver Laxe) — Convicted arsonist Amador gets released and returns to his mother and their home in the misty muddy mountain area of Lugo in northwest Spain. The landscape reflects what might be going on in Amador’s mind as he tries to take his place again in his childhood home. The world has moved on without him, but which way will he go?

In the Same Breath (United States, Nanfu Wang) — Documentarian Wang and her contacts in China were able to heroically and surreptitiously film the problems China had in combatting COVID, how the Jinping government used the media to downplay the seriousness of the situation and make themselves look like heroes of the land. She then compared that with how the Trump administration used its media friends at Fox, OAN, and the extreme right Internet to do the exact same thing here.

Judas & The Black Messiah (United States, Shaka King) — On the betrayal of Black Panther national deputy chairman Fred Hampton, by a plant in their group hired by the FBI and the Chicago Police Department. Deals with themes of race and the search for racial justice that unfortunately remain timely.

Spencer (United Kingdom, Pablo Larrain).— Kristin Stewart stars as a ethereal Princess Diana, coming to terms with the fact that she didn’t want to be part of the Royal House Show, anymore. Director Larrain puts a lot of often-literal spins to the very familiar story, but Stewart really shines in the different facets of Diana: as People’s Princess, as mother, and as put-upon trophy wife for the heir to the throne. Also nicely noteable: Jonny Greenwood’s repetition of the main theme, on piano, strings, harpsichord, and other instruments.

Summer of Soul (United States, Questlove) — The Harlem Cultural Festival of music and arts was almost a myth, forgotten by those who weren’t there, until Roots (and Tonight Show) drummer Questlove got hold of the film and soundtrack to the 1969 event. Now it’s there for posterity: vintage footage of acts like Gladys Knight and the Pips, Stevie Wonder, the Staples, and (most importantly) Sly and the Family Stone, Nina Simone, and Mahalia Jackson. Myth no more. There really -were- giants in those days!

The Tale of King Crab (Italy/Argentina, Righi and Zoppas) — A drunk in 19th century Italy is exiled after he commits a horrible crime during the revolt against the prince. His search for redemption takes him to Tierra Del Fuego where there might be even more than pirate gold waiting for him at the end of the trail left by a King Crab. It’s part Robert Louis Stevenson, part Borges, but all amazing, with derring-do of a less-flashy kind against the background of incredible end-of-the-world landscapes.

Titane (France, Julia Ducournau) — Titane is a dancer and she’s in love with a car. Really really in love with a car. And it loves her, too. It really really loves her. There’s lots of very graphic violence, lots of dancing, lots of fire. It should be seen, at least once. But not by the squeamish.

Undine (Germany/France, Christian Petzold) — Director Petzold was one my favorite “finds” of 2019 and he continues his string of really good films with this otherworldly romance, reworking the myth of the water nymph Undine who will kill any man daring to break up with her. There’s a bit of Tourneau’s Cat People mixed in here with the Hans Christian Anderson, too. Dive into it when you can!

The Velvet Underground (United States, Todd Haynes) — Bit of a let-down, but Todd Haynes’ reworking of Andy Warhol films with talking head interviews of those who were there during the rise and fall of the band called The Velvet Underground remains an indispensable document of the times and one of my favorite music films of the year. I wish they’d gone deeper… too many off-hand remarks about the darker side of Lou Reed that went unexplored. Reed would not let himself get off so easy, wish they’d followed this spirit to the hilt. As it is, a vibrant inspiring piece of work.

Zola (United States, Janicza Bravo) — Another film about dancers! Bravo’s bombast of virtuoso colors and cuts retells what was a real-life Twitter thread in unsettling and very funny bits. Sometimes unsettling -because- its very dark humor digs in at things we’d probably not enjoy so much if they were actually happening in front of us. The title character meets another dancer who says if they take a road trip to Tampa they can make a lot of money stripping at a club. Even without Zola’s warning to us at the beginning, you -know- this will not go well. And the proverbial damned thing after another continues to fall in their paths all the way to the end. Taylour Paige’s Zola and her untrustworthy gal-pal Stefani, played by Riley Keough, and director Bravo, make this an incredible, albeit often-uncomfortable ride.

NOTE: this picture of Buster Keaton covering his face is from the 1965 film called “FILM”, written and directed by Samuel Beckett. Though it was not a new film in 2021, this was the year I finally saw it, and the image reflects what my inner-mind was thinking when I realized how many movies I saw in the last twelve months.

[megacircuit9universe]

TikTok’s Reprieve

MON AUG 03 2020

Things have actually gotten a little better since the last entry.  The Homeland Security guys were removed from Portland, and never got deployed anywhere else.  

And Trump, after threatening to ban TikTok in no uncertain terms, announced yesterday that he will hold off for 45 days, allowing Microsoft time to negotiate a purchase of TikTok.

Microsoft had begun such talks a while back, when the TikTok ban was first floated by Secretary of State Pompeo.

Microsoft actually backed off and halted talks when Trump began tweeting about doing the ban for real, last week... but then Trump seems to have realized, Oh, wait!.. 

Having all that data on all those users in federal hands could be more useful than pissing off every voter between 18 and 30, to run to the polls.  And maybe he could strong arm a little kick back from Microsoft... you know... like he always angles for.

Either way, TikTok is off the hook for that Tulsa rally prank... for now.

I, personally, am very fascinated by what a Microsoft owned TikTok would be like!..

Thus far, Microsoft has zero social media presence.  They tried several years ago, to break into the smartphone market with an OS, but it was a huge flop.

Prior to that, the last time Microsoft really got all up in the face of the internet was back during the browser wars of the late 1990s, and early 2000s... going up against Netscape, with Internet Explorer and...

...really fighting to control how web pages were coded, by having a browser engine that dealt with HTML differently than Netscape* and recognized tags that Nescape didn’t... shaping the final format of the desktop browser internet as we know it today.

They won that browser war eventually... but then lost it to Google Chrome a few years later.  Their tepid answer was Bing... which only survives because it’s the default for so many corporate workstations.

But Microsoft missed the whole social media revolution entirely.

YouTube and Twitter were two of the first, followed by Instagram, Tumblr, Snapchat, etc... all bought up by big online conglomerates like Google, Yahoo, or Facebook... while Microsoft sat quietly by... totally focused on Windows 10, and nothing else.

But it is the triumph of Windows 10, that makes me think a Microsoft owned social media app, like TikTok... the coolest that ever was... could result in some far reaching, life changing, stuff... the likes of Google buying YouTube.

YouTube is now the undisputed video platform of the modern world. It’s not just TV, Movies, and personal videos... but a library of Alexandria magnitude database of knowledge, in the form of educational and how-to videos... as well as a great news resource.

Okay, back to Windows 10.  I call it a triumph, because it’s finally become a self-updating OS, that is simultaneously, forever backward compatible.  W10 has perfected the virtual machines inside itself, which can run any app that ever ran on any previous version of Windows, back to the start.

Hell, it has a virtual machine to run DOS just like the old days!

It entrenches Windows into the universe, the same way the qwerty keyboard is entrenched, or the width of train tracks were entrenched by ancient Roman chariots... it doubles down hard on keeping the computer... as we knew it... a thing we will still know tomorrow.

Compare that to the currently flopping adventure from Google into the laptop market, with tiny laptops, called chromebooks, run by Chrome OS.  Nobody wants them.  They’re just glorified tablets... which are just glorified phones.

Where are our windows?  Where is our start bar?  Where is our folder system, and our millions of programs we’ve come to love over the past thirty years?

Phones are one universe... computers are another.  That seems set in stone now, and Windows will never be directly compatible with Android, or Apple based phones/tablets... but that’s a good thing.

Back to TikTok...

Imagine if Microsoft brought back the legendary Windows Movie Maker, in a new form for editing TikTok videos!  How awesome would that be?

Windows Movie Maker was the MS Paint of desktop video editing.  It was free with Windows, and it was amazing!  I’m sure that it had a huge hand in getting YouTube off the ground, back in the early days, when it was all just reguar people with digital camera footage in their bedrooms.

I’m not sure why they discontinued it, but they did with Vista.

If a verson of Movie Maker were to come back to the desktop, in the form of a TikTok extension... holy shit!

But TikTok also has licensing agreements with a vast library of musical artists, and other audio resources, so, Microsoft could easily spin off a Spotify type playlist feature, and a GarageBand/ Myspace type unsigned indie music feature, that would dominate that unmet demand for such things, in 2020.

Currently, Amazon Music, Spotify, SoundCloud, and several others, including YouTube, have been clumbsily grasping at this music market... with shitty results.  

Spotify’s falling out of favor, because of it’s obnoxious adds.  SoundCloud is a vanity publishing service where unknown artitst pay for exposure, but there’s no access to anything else.  And Amazon Music is great for both indie and published musicians, but... only gets used by Amazon Prime members, which means they cannot share playlists with most people.

A universal music sharing superstructure, free to everybody, that compensates the artists... like YouTube for video creators... does not exist, but could soon, if Microsoft buys TikTok and develops it along logical lines.

In fact, if they spin off longer form branches of the app... the five minute vid... the thirty minute vid... the ninety minute vid... they’d supplant YouTube.

...or at least force YouTube to step up it’s game, considerably.

This could be a gold mine for Microsoft... if they don’t screw it up.

They’ve already announced that, should the purchase go through, Microsoft will oversee TikTok in Canada, America, and Australia... which is a great start on dominating Europe, and eventually getting back into India, where it is currenly banned.

It will be ineresting to see what comes of all this in the months and years ahead.

But for tonight... it’s time for bed.

*Netscape rose to popularity by enabling it’s own in-browser HTML tags, that were not yet part of the WC3 (World Wide Web Consortium 3.0) standards.  And their tags enabled images to be featured inline with text, as well as other innovative reaches that forced the WC to play catch-up, while wagging a naughty finger.

This forced a, “cambrian explosion” of web design and content.

Microsoft engaged in the same tactics, with MSIE, but rendered pages differently and had it’s own unique tags, and document model to be accessed by Javascript, forcing web designers to choose between Netscape, or IE compatability... or some convoluted compromise.

Eventualy IE won out, but was supplanted by Google Chrome, as the universal browser of the world.

[tekamedia]

State Department foreign service officer resigns in blistering criticism of Trump

New Post has been published on https://newsprofixpro.com/tekamedia/2019/08/09/state-department-foreign-service-officer-resigns-in-blistering-criticism-of-trump/

State Department foreign service officer resigns in blistering criticism of Trump

(CNN)A foreign service officer resigned from the State Department effective Thursday, writing in a blistering op-ed in The Washington Post that he could no longer serve in “The Complacent State,” particularly in the wake of the El Paso mass shooting. Chuck … Read More

 Buy Now

   Price: $729.95

Item specifics

Condition:

New: A brand-new, unused, unopened, undamaged item in its original packaging (where packaging is

Brand:

Canon

Type: Digital SLR Model:

Canon EOS 80D

Connectivity: mini-HDMI, USB Weight: 22.93 Oz. Megapixels: 24.2MP Battery Type: Manufacturer specific MPN:

1263C004

Features: Wi-Fi Ready Color:

Black

Manufacturer Warranty: No Dimensions: 3.09×5.47×4.14 in Packaging: May come in a kit box and lens was removed Series: Canon EOS Sellers Warranty: 30 Days Screen Size: 3.0″ Version: Import UPC:

0013803271829

About this product

Product Information Expand your photography horizons with the Canon EOS 80D digital SLR camera. Delivering pro-level image quality, this camera helps you achieve razor-sharp details and stunning effects to make the most of your subject. Equipped with a 24.2 megapixels CMOS Sensor the camera is able to create pictures with a resolution of up to 6000 x 4000. The DIGIC 6 image processor ensures a high quality of your images. A big range of features and effects make photos look professional. Te ultra-detailed RAW output capability makes it very easy to balance exposure, saturation, and contrast for amazing pictures every time. If you want to capture moving images, this camera shoots videos in full HD and 24 fps for clear results. The camera also features built-in Wi-Fi for easy transfer and sharing of images. Product Identifiers Brand Canon MPN 1263C004 GTIN 0013803271829 UPC 0013803271829 Model Canon EOS 80D eBay Product ID (ePID) 223367815 Product Key Features Battery Type Manufacturer specific Features Wi-Fi Ready Color Black Dimensions 3.09×5.47×4.14 in Series Canon EOS Screen Size 3.0″ Type Digital SLR Connectivity mini-HDMI, USB Megapixels 24.2MP Dimensions Weight 22.93 Oz. Additional Product Features Exterior Color Black MAX Video Resolution 1920×1080 Sensor Resolution 24.2MP Camera Type Digital SLR Sensor Type Aps-C Cmos Light Sensitivity 100-12800 Lens for Sd Body only Display Size 3in.

$729.95 End Date: Monday Aug-12-2019 8:08:11 PDT Buy It Now for only: $729.95 Buy It Now | Add to watch list

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An item in excellent, new condition with no wear. The item may be missing the original packaging or protective wrapping, or may be in the original packaging but not sealed. The item includes original accessories. The item may be a factory second. See the seller's listing for full details and description. See all condition definitions– opens in a new window or tab

Seller Notes: “LIKE NEW. No signs of wear. Original packaging. All standard accessories included.”

Model:

Sony SRS-XB20

Color:

Black, Blue

Wireless Technology: Bluetooth MPN:

Xb20

Connectivity: Wireless Brand:

Sony

Type: Portable Speaker UPC:

Does not apply

$39.99 End Date: Monday Sep-9-2019 12:22:18 PDT Buy It Now for only: $39.99 Buy It Now | Add to watch list

[citizentruth-blog]

We Don’t Need You Back, Kevin Spaceys of the World

Kevin Spacey may be a fine actor, but we don't need his ilk in Hollywood. Rather than accepting admitted abusers back into the limelight, we should strive to find new talent, especially as it concerns women, people of color, and other underrepresented groups. (Photo Credit: Richard Cooper/CC-BY-SA-3.0) In advance of Christmas, Kevin Spacey released a video entitled "Let Me Be Frank" on his YouTube channel. Beyond it being strange enough news that Kevin Spacey has a YouTube channel in the first place, the three-minute clip was deeply weird. In the video, Spacey, speaking in the manner of his persona Frank Underwood from House of Cards, directly addresses the viewer, as he did in character within the context of the show. His remarks are as follows: I know what you want. Oh, sure, they may have tried to separate us, but what he have is too strong, it's too powerful. I mean, after all, we shared everything, you and I. I told you my deepest, darkest secrets. I showed you exactly what people are capable of. I shocked you with my honesty, but mostly I challenged you and made you think. And you trusted me—even though you knew you shouldn't. So we're not done no matter what anyone says. And besides, I know what you want: you want me back. Of course, some believed everything and have just been waiting with bated breath to hear me confess it—they're just dying to have me declare that everything said is true, that I got what I deserved. Wouldn't that be easy—if it was all so simple? Only you and I both know it's never that simple—not in politics and not in life. But you wouldn't believe the worst without evidence, would you? You wouldn't rush to judgment without facts, would you? Did you? No, not you. You're smarter than that. Anyway, all this presumption made for such an unsatisfying ending, and to think it could've been such a memorable send-off. I mean, if you and I have learned nothing else these past years, it's that in life and art, nothing should be off the table. We weren't afraid—not of what we said, not of what we did, and we're still not afraid. Because I can promise you this: if I didn't pay the price for the things we both know I did do, I'm certainly not going to pay the price for the things I didn't do. Oh, of course, they're going to say I'm being disrespectful, not playing by the rules—like I ever played by anyone's rules before. I never did—and you loved it. Anyhow, despite all the poppycock, the animosity, the headlines, the impeachment without a trial, despite everything—despite even my own death—I feel surprisingly good. And my confidence grows each day that, soon enough, you will know the full truth. Oh, wait a minute. Now that I think of it, you never actually saw me die, did you? Conclusions can be so deceiving. Miss me? In his indirectness, his comments are questionable in their true application. Is Spacey talking about another season of House of Cards involving him despite the apparent end of the series without him? Or, more probably, is he speaking through Underwood in a thinly-veiled set of allusions to his accused sexual misconduct, taking a shot at the producers of the show and its perceived dip in quality in its final eight episodes? Whatever Spacey's motivations, the conflation of his character's darkness with his own seeming defense of his real-life behavior is an odd one. It's like Ted Cruz making jokes about himself being the Zodiac Killer as if to make him more likable. Who associates himself with a soulless politician who will stop at nothing in his bid for power so as to make his suspected sexual misconduct and pedophilia more palatable? Who does that? Apparently, Kevin Spacey does, and what's more, he may be partially right about people wanting him back. Back in November, Sophie Gilbert, staff writer at The Atlantic, penned an article about the notion that, for all the attention of #MeToo and Time's Up to holding men in power accountable for their actions, not only has the comeuppance for many offenders been short-lived, but a disparity in on-screen and off-screen representation for women remains. In the case of Kevin Spacey, mentioned specifically in Gilbert's piece, the weight of his legal troubles may be enough to deep-six his career as we have known it. But for others? Charlie Rose? James Franco? Louis C.K.? Matt Lauer? Despite admissions of guilt or multiple accusations of wrongdoing, these men are either working on comebacks or continue to find work. Hell, even Roman Polanski keeps directing films. As for women being creators, directors, and the like as well as garnering screen time, Gilbert notes that these opportunities declined in the year preceding her column's publication, citing statistics from Women and Hollywood, an advocacy group. And this is on top of the belief held by some that, owing to how pervasive sexual harassment and other forms of misconduct are alleged to be in Hollywood (and other industries), if the punishments were truly indicative of the crimes, so to speak, a lot more dudes would be losing their jobs. Gilbert closes her piece on a bit of a sobering note detailing the "paradox" of the #MeToo/Time's Up movements: Since the Weinstein allegations were first published, the entertainment industry has taken measurable steps to help fight instances of abuse, harassment, and predatory behavior. It’s committed time and money to helping women and men who’ve been harassed receive the emotional and legal support they need. A handful of high-level executives accused of harassment and abuse (Amazon Studios’s Roy Price, CBS’s Les Moonves) have been replaced. At the same time, though, studio heads and producers have been relatively quick to welcome back actors, directors, and writers who’ve been accused of harassment and assault, particularly when their status makes them seem irreplaceable. It’s a dual-edged message: Don’t abuse your power, but if you do, you’ll still have a career. Part of the confusion comes down to the fact that these men are seen as invaluable because the stories they tell are still understood to have disproportionate worth. When the slate of new fall TV shows is filled with father-and-son buddy-cop stories and prison-break narratives and not one but two gentle, empathetic examinations of male grief, it’s harder to imagine how women writers and directors might step up to occupy a sudden void. When television and film are fixated on helping audiences find sympathy for troubled, selfish, cruel, brilliant men, it’s easier to believe that the troubled, brilliant men in real life also deserve empathy, forgiveness, and second chances. And so the tangible achievements one year into the #MeToo movement need to be considered hand in hand with the fact that the stories being told haven’t changed much at all, and neither have the people telling them. A true reckoning with structural disparities in the entertainment industry will demand something else as well: acknowledging that women’s voices and women’s stories are not only worth believing, but also worth hearing. At every level. For Gilbert, the slow and incomplete taking to task of men who abuse their fame and power is inextricably linked to societal attitudes that place men, their feelings, and their drive for success above those of women. Moving outside the purview of Hollywood—though, noting his courtroom shenanigans, perhaps with the same performative flair—that Brett Kavanaugh could even be defended as a viable Supreme Court candidate who was being "attacked" as part of a "witch hunt" is beyond absurd. And yet, GOP senators did it with a straight face, eventually casting their votes in favor of his confirmation. The proof, as they say, is in the pudding. If this pudding doesn't prove Gilbert's point, I'm not sure what does. Returning to Kevin Spacey's insistence that we're eagerly anticipating his return and my suggestion that he may be, in part, right, it's worth noting that some Internet commentators have expressed dismay that they may not be able to see him act more in the future or have advanced the thought "we haven't heard his side of the story." As Spacey will have his day in court, we undoubtedly will, or at least will have the testimony of his accuser(s) cross-examined. There would seem to be ample time for "his side" to be made public. Theoretically speaking, the truth should set him free. I admittedly think Spacey is a fine actor. His award wins and nominations, as far as I know or am concerned, were well deserved. Owing to his talent, people indeed may want him acting again. But do we need him and his ilk in Hollywood? I submit no. Perhaps I am underestimating the gifts that certain creative minds at the peak of their craft bestow upon their audiences. My supposition, however, is that individuals like Spacey are eminently replaceable. Literally. His scenes in the film All the Money in the World were re-shot with Christopher Plummer in his place, an effort that earned Plummer an Academy Award nomination. If a two-time Academy Award winner like Spacey can be replaced, why not others accused of misconduct? Are we that deficient on acting and other artistic ability? Spacey's attitude and that of critics of the #MeToo movement exist in stark contrast to comments made by actor Idris Elba on the subject. In an interview for an article in the British newspaper The Times, Elba opined that #MeToo is "only difficult if you're a man with something to hide." He received a lot of adulation on social media from prominent women in entertainment. Less so in conservative circles, but as is often heard on The Sopranos, eh, whaddya gonna do? It shouldn't take Shonda Rhimes's enthusiastic agreement, though, to convince us of the veracity of Elba's statement—woman or man, famous or not. Protests of #MeToo and Time's Up as "witch hunts" continue the trend of Donald Trump—who is certainly not above reproach given his remarks about women over the years and multiple alleged instances of sexual misconduct—and others robbing this phrase of its significance. Moreover, that Elba is the conduit for these thoughts conveys the sense that we can yet have performers of a high caliber grace our screens and maintain a clear conscience about whether the rights of women and survivors, in general, can be respected. As for women having more speaking time on screen and having more chances to direct, edit, produce, serve as lead photographer, and write, this also should not be the obstacle it presently is. If Black Panther, a movie with a predominantly black cast and black director, or Crazy Rich Asians, a movie with an all-Asian cast directed by an Asian, can do exceedingly well commercially, why can't we have more creative works in which women play central roles, behind and in front of the lens? Ocean's 8, for example, as derivative as it is, was a box-office success. If the story is a compelling one, the ethnicity or gender or sexual orientation or any similar identifying characteristic of the people involved shouldn't matter. Shouldn't we raise our expectations? Kevin Spacey's "Let Me Be Frank" video has amassed more than 9.5 million views on YouTube since first being uploaded as of this writing. I viewed it only to transcribe what he said. Others, I hope, only watched it because of a similar need to report on its contents or because, like seeing a flaming car wreck on the side of the road, they couldn't help but look away. If they viewed it because they wanted to see more of Spacey and think his talent outweighs his alleged misdeeds, however, I would consider that supremely disappointing. We don't need the Kevin Spaceys of the world back, and we'll be all the better for that realization.   Read the full article

[queenchrysalisrps]

[ooc] Ranting

That shit’s below the read more because I am a fucked up individual who is maybe a little bit tipsy and tired and depressed simultaneously.

my life’s shit, i’m stupidly jealous, and nobody cares, a rantpost. read more if you want i fucking guess you already clicked the link at this point and it’s all about me being a whiny bitch who nobody cares about

positive: ordered herbal testosterone blockers and estrogen boosters because the training we were supposed to get navy-wide on transitioning in the military had a due date of January 31st and it’s now almost a month later and we haven’t gotten it

here’s hoping i don’t get in trouble for that haha (spoilers: at this point I DON’T give a SHIT because if I didn’t start this then I’d probably fall even further down the apathy barrier and fail out of the nuclear programme, which is the only reason I’d like to be in the military at this point aside from staying away from moving back home)

trump is a shit as fuck president, rapist, dumbass, rascist, misogynist, transphobic, and basically using the american flag as toilet paper with his in-office state

there’s a handful of people I have mutual care for/about: -Lara’s my go to most days, best princess -Button’s a cute switch, but if I vanished I doubt she’d realize it -Amburro’s around sporadically these days -Chel has her own problems -i’m not sure how I feel about paul but he’s kind of precious -Audjob plays with other people a lot, acknowledges my existence but that comes close to -it- -and lauralai just came out from the abyss, went “i really like you and spending time with you, you’re kind of awesome” only to kind of do her own thing with other people instead

i’m quiet as fuck, nobody notices me, the only thing i’m particularly good at aside from being smart at this point is lying through my teeth unless i’m not serious about it at all

i’ve been trying to get a car for about a month and it’s finally about to happen con: another 6,000$ loan, around 200$/mo even through usaa for insurance

i’m moving into a co-worker’s apartment to set up a better way of getting to work since i have a habit of sleeping 4 hours a night during the work week; also 12 hour workdays of rotating shiftwork are literally satan

i feel unwanted by basically everybody, the people who aren’t straight-up apathetic prioritize other people way before they even think about me, i’m like a footnote cute girl

i never got below a 3.0 on a test before i joined the navy, now at least i know what it takes to be a genius (answer: complete social ineptitude)

i prioritize dumb shit, my life’s a mess, the navy is garbage, and the best thing that’s happened at all in my life so far is meeting a cute canadian girl

i went from public school in 5th grade to christian school the next, then back to public for 12th, then into the navy instead of staying home and going to college because i couldn’t take my parents at that point: which led to, because of the church’s doctrine, self-isolation as well as social isolation (aka different schools) from my gradeschool friends, who were awesome.

I miss Jennette, Molly, Aislinn, Maegan, Fernando, Miles, Langston, and the friends-of-friends situations I got into with them because those friends of friends were also fan fucking tastic. I miss the friends I made in 12th grade too, which basically includes the whole goddamn class because the school was bigger than the situation of “haha i’m the only one in the high school (11th grade)” by a margin of 40-50, + everyone was so great and it felt wonderful after transitioning from christian school to be around sane people again

nothing against christians, but sports and bible aren’t the only things that exist and if those are your main focuses in life you end up prty goddamn dumb and sheltered and overall a shitty human being from my experience

i’ve never cut myself but I sure have held objects that could close to my skin and thought about it

but then again

that’s probably why i’m completely starved for attention

sic: quiet; add: nerdy, kinky

i’m glad to be one person’s priority

i’m glad to feel wanted, at least in that respect

and it’s not like i outright burned bridges, i just let them fall apart

is that 6 year period to mean nothing in my life?

the things I learned since: transgender was what defined the odd feelings i had had for many more, following a religion is a lazy excuse for not trying to think about things too much (aka if the christian god were real i’d side with satan because that dude’s insane), i’d really like to write things but given success rates of authors it’s probably best to have a safety net, drugs will get you high, i am not a lightweight in terms of alcohol but 151 is some GOOD SHIT, i’m not emotionally dead but i have enough walls that the inside of my head is probably a hedge maze

if i do get discharged early, i’m just going to hit up my dad’s work through him and renovate my parent’s basement if they actually accept my “deviant” behavior.

if i don’t, then I’ll finish my 8 year contract- and yeah it’s definitely 8 years because even if electricians get the shittiest bonus that’s still 2 years for automatic advancement in rate that’s impossible to get off of just the test until you’ve got a year or so in the fleet; if I like it enough I might go reserves. regardless I’ll finish up the engineering degree and apply to civilian power plants and electrician companies, whatever it takes to live in washington because then I can make good pay and be happily close to princess, making enough $$ to save and retire soon after, staying fit and pretty and focusing on writing things from the world that’s been building in my mind’s eye for 5+ years now

i needed to write this down and it’s still not everything but it’s most of it

to include, “not everything” is largely “I don’t feel satisfied with the content of this post but it’s already so long” this is probably just going to be a summary of later posts on how fucked up my life has been from a personal standpoint

not to say that it’s the worst or anything like that

but it’s definitely not the best

i’m socially stupid/awkward and friends I’ve made in this program seem to keep being either in different spots than I am or being removed for various issues

also sorry not sorry for my first post on this blog in forever being complaints for far too long; that’s another thing i’m shitty at, because there are so many good muns out there that i practically abandoned talking to

[savetopnow]

2018-03-09 22 GAME now

GAME

Attack of the Fanboy

Characters that Should Be in the New Super Smash Bros.

Everything Announced in Today’s Nintendo Direct

Splatoon 2 to Get Ver. 3.0 and Single-Player DLC

Japan Is Getting Three Nintendo Switch Games That We Aren’t

Octopath Traveler Gets July Release Date

Brutal Gamer

March 8 Nintendo Direct: A Doozy

Open Jurassic Park’s iconic front gates in the comfort of your own home

Crash Bandicoot: The N.Sane trilogy coming to Xbox One, Switch, and PC

Sideshow adds DC Collectibles’ slate of offerings to its online shop

Nintendo Download: Trek to Freedom and a New Frontier

Game Banshee

Dishonored: Death of the Outsider Interview

Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord Developer Blog - Engine

Path of Exile Patch v3.2.0b Released

Tom Clancy's The Division 2 Announced, The Road Ahead

Dauntless Stability and Server Update Preview

Game Informer

Crash N.Sane Trilogy Also Coming To Xbox One And Steam In July

Epic Announces Fortnite Battle Royale Coming To Mobile

Catch What You Missed In Today's Nintendo Direct

Report: Here's How President Trump's Meeting With The Video Game Industry Transpired

GI Show – Labo Hands-On, Ion Maiden, Robin Hunicke Interview

Game Watch

Battlezone: Combat Commander Review

Order of Battle: Sandstorm Beta Is Open

Farming Simulator 19 First In-Game Screenshot Revealed, Huge Announcement at E3 2018

Insurgency: Sandstorm Screenshots from the Closed Alpha

Immortal: Unchained Preview

Gematsu

Compile Heart ‘Cute RPG’ countdown trailer

Valkyrie Profile: Lenneth coming to smartphones this spring in Japan

Super Bomberman R rated for PS4 in Korea

Valkyria Chronicles 4 snow cruiser Centurion overview trailer

Super Robot Wars X ‘Chapter 1: Journey Prologue’ 13-minute gameplay video

IGN

Updated: Every Game Coming to E3 2018

Monster Hunter World: A Simple Task, Other Event Quests Available Now

Super Smash Bros. Creator Confirms He's Working on Switch Version

Tennis World Tour Release Date Announced

PUBG Is the 3rd Largest Selling Game in Steam History

Niche Gamer

Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition Launches May 18

South Park: The Fractured But Whole Coming to Switch on April 24

Little Nightmares: Complete Edition Heads to Switch on May 18

Splatoon 2 Update 3.0 And First Expansion Announced For Switch

Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker Announced for Nintendo Switch and 3DS, Includes Mario Odyssey Levels

Nintendo Life

Masahiro Sakurai Confirms He's Working On Super Smash Bros. Switch

Korean Rating Suggests That Super Bomberman R Is Jumping Ship To PS4

Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story Is Back On Nintendo 3DS With Added Content

Call Of Duty: Black Ops 4 Is Officially Announced, But There's No Switch Version

Sushi Striker: The Way of Sushido Will Hit Switch And 3DS This June

PC Invasion

Steampunk Surreal Fantasy Another Sight announced

Longbow Games reveals adventure puzzler Golem

Sprint Vector Review

Grim Dawn’s second expansion The Forgotten Gods announced

Final Fantasy XV PC unlock times

Playstation Blog

PlayStation Blogcast 284: Wayfaring Stranger

PlayStation Store: February’s Top Downloads

What’s New in MLB The Show 18’s RPG Mode, Road to The Show

Introducing Torn, A Dark Sci-Fi Mystery Coming to PS VR this Spring

Tesla vs Lovecraft Launches March 13 on PS4

Reddit Gaming

A controversial celebration

Dear Parents, These ratings exist for a reason.

Wolfenstein 3D but you just pet dogs

Party was themed "anything from the 90s". This guy wins.

Triss Merigold Alternative Costume (Witcher 3) by LikeAssassin (Kristina)

Xbox News

New Preview Alpha 1804 System Update – 3/8/18

Path of Exile Introduces the Bestiary League

How the Xbox Insider Team Shares Your Feedback

New Operators and New Co-op Event Available Now for Rainbow Six Siege

Warframe: The New Eidolons Have Arrived

[juudgeblog]

Morning Docket: 12.06.17

* “They’re not just preparing for a court challenge. They’re prepared to lose.” President Trump has been including severability clauses in some of his most controversial executive orders and proclamations (e.g., Travel Ban 2.0, Travel Ban 3.0, and the transgender military ban). At this rate, he’s on pace to use them more than all of his most recent predecessors combined. [USA Today]

* Special counsel Robert Mueller filed his legal team’s first expenditure report yesterday afternoon, and it’s a doozy. Thus far, $6.7 million has been spent between May 17, 2017, and September 30, 2017, and contrary to popular belief at the White House, the Russia investigation is nowhere near an end. [National Law Journal]

* The Justice Department is now open to regulating guns; we repeat, the Justice Department is now open to regulating guns — or at least parts that can make guns even more deadly than they already are. That said, the DOJ has entered into a rule-making process that will redetermine the legality of bump stock devices. [CNN]

* All has been quiet on the Sedgwick front for about a week, but now we’ve got word that “many” of the failed firm’s lawyers from numerous offices — including San Francisco-based team led by partners Bruce Celebrezze and Alexander Potente — will be joining British insurance firm Clyde & Co in the new year. [American Lawyer]

* In case you missed it, Judge Valarie E. Turner — who allowed a law clerk to wear her robes and preside over cases — was recently forced into retirement after admitting that she’d been diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease and “acknowledg[ing] that she [was] permanently unable to perform her judicial duties.” [Chicago Sun-Times] Morning Docket: 12.06.17 syndicated from http://ift.tt/2vKNZDn

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

This holiday season, the Democratic National Committee gave the gift of one last primary debate in 2019. The stage featured just seven candidates, and despite a sleepy first hour, there was a lot of tension in the two-and-a-half-hour affair. Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg came under fire from the rest of the field, fielding attacks from Sens. Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren in particular. According to the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll, which used Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel to interview the same respondents before and after the debate, Klobuchar had a good night, attracting the most new potential support. Former Vice President Joe Biden also did well, earning the highest debate performance score from the viewers in our survey.

Maybe you were out holiday shopping — or watching the new Star Wars movie! — and missed it (hey, we don’t blame you), or you just want to know more about how the December debate may affect the race as we move into 2020. Either way, here’s the Democratic debate, summed up in 6 charts:

Which candidates performed best?

To kick us off, which candidates did viewers think had a strong performance? A weak one? To answer this, we compared each candidate’s pre-debate favorability rating1 to viewers’ ratings of his or her debate performance to see how candidates performed. This time, Biden walked away with the highest marks from respondents in our poll. But if it’s hard to see a decisive winner from last night, that’s because Biden, Warren and Sanders all performed roughly as well as we would expect given their pre-debate favorability. Buttigieg and Steyer received the worst marks for their performances, relative to their pre-debate favorability ratings.

How did voters’ priorities affect their views of the candidates?

According to our Ipsos survey, nearly two-thirds of likely Democratic primary voters prefer a candidate who has a good chance of beating President Trump over someone who shares similar stances with them on the issues. How these types of voters evaluate the candidates and their performances can vary, though, even if the differences are relatively small.

Voters who prioritize beating Trump thought Biden had the best debate performance, with Warren, Sanders, Klobuchar and Buttigieg tied with the second-highest marks. Among voters who prioritized issue stances, Sanders and Yang fared best.

Among voters who prioritize beating Trump, Biden did best

How well debate-watchers thought candidates performed in the sixth Democratic debate, by which type of candidate they prefer

Type of candidate preferred candidate Similar issue positions Able to beat trump Biden 2.8 3.3 Warren 2.9 3.1 Sanders 3.1 3.1 Klobuchar 2.7 3.1 Buttigieg 2.5 3.1 Yang 3.0 3.0 Steyer 2.5 2.8

From a survey of 3,543 likely Democratic primary voters who were surveyed between Dec. 13 and Dec. 18. The same people were surveyed again from Dec. 19 to Dec. 20; 720 responded to the second wave and said they watched the debate. The average ratings are out of 4 points, where 4 is best and 1 is worst.

Source: Ipsos/FiveThirtyEight

Who left a good impression?

We also wanted to see if any of the candidates managed to leave a good impression, as captured by their net favorability rating (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) before and after the debate. By this metric, Yang and Klobuchar saw the largest gains, roughly six points each. But even with these increases, their net favorability scores are still lower than much of the rest of the field — better-known candidates like Biden, Sanders and Warren are viewed more favorably.

Yang and Klobuchar made positive impressions

Change in net favorability for candidates in a FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll taken before and after the December Democratic primary debate

Net favorability candidate before debate after debate change Yang +16.1 +22.4 +6.3 Klobuchar +11.0 +17.1 +6.1 Steyer +4.3 +7.3 +3.1 Warren +40.0 +43.0 +2.9 Sanders +40.5 +42.6 +2.1 Biden +43.2 +45.1 +1.9 Buttigieg +29.4 +27.5 -1.9

From a survey of 3,543 likely Democratic primary voters who were surveyed between Dec. 13 and Dec. 18. The same people were surveyed again from Dec. 19 to Dec. 20; 1,908 responded to the second wave.

Who spoke the most?

Klobuchar stole the mic Thursday, speaking the most words of any candidate. This was the first time the Minnesota senator earned this distinction, significantly improving upon her position in the last debate, where she came in fifth for words spoken. Buttigieg wasn’t too far off from Klobuchar, though, speaking just 200 fewer words.

Who held the floor?

Number of words candidates spoke in the sixth Democratic debate

Candidate Words Spoken Amy Klobuchar 3,557

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Pete Buttigieg 3,327

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Elizabeth Warren 3,087

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Bernie Sanders 2,891

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Joe Biden 2,869

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Tom Steyer 1,937

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Andrew Yang 1,729

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Source: Debate Transcript via ABC News

The fact that Klobuchar and Buttigieg spoke the most last night may be surprising given that they are significantly behind Biden, Sanders and Warren in the national polls. Normally, higher-polling candidates tend to get more air time, but in Thursday’s debate, the relationship between a candidate’s polling average2 and the amount of words he or she spoke was not particularly strong.3 For instance, while Sanders spoke about as much as his polling average would suggest, Biden spoke far less than expected.

Who mentioned Trump the most?

The candidates may not have spoken for equal amounts of time, but one thing they did have in common was name-dropping Trump. Klobuchar, for example, talked about Trump way more than Warren, who only mentioned him once. (This doesn’t seem to be a new strategy for Warren: She came in second to last in Trump mentions at the November debate, too, saying his name just twice.)

Who talked about Trump?

How often Trump’s name was mentioned by candidates in the sixth Democratic debate

Candidate Trump Mentions Amy Klobuchar 11

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Bernie Sanders 8

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Joe Biden 6

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Pete Buttigieg 6

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Tom Steyer 4

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Andrew Yang 4

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Elizabeth Warren 1

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Source: Debate Transcript via ABC News

On average, each candidate said Trump’s name about six times. But of course, this doesn’t cover every reference to Trump, as some didn’t call out the president by name — like when Sanders said “we have a president who is a pathological liar.”

Do you want even more debate coverage?

Cool graphics from other sites:

Going into the debate, The New York Times had a cool primer, which included tidbits like which candidates they expected to attack each other. It’s fun to look back now and see whether they were correct; notably, their speculation that Buttigieg might come under fire proved prescient, particularly in the back and forths with Warren and Klobuchar.

And if you want to see exactly how many times the candidates attacked one another, NBC News tracked it! Buttigieg came under fire the most, while Sanders dished it out more than any other candidate.

The New York Times also tracked how long each candidate spoke on each issue. Sanders spoke the most about health care, while Klobuchar dominated the conversation on electability. And foreign policy was the longest-discussed topic of the evening, racking up 15 minutes total.

And here’s more great post-debate analysis:

Our colleague Rick Klein at ABC News on the debate’s focus on electability and attacks on Buttigieg.

Annie Linskey at The Washington Post looked into the role gender played in the final question at the debate, finding that when asked to decide between giving a gift to one of their fellow debaters or asking for forgiveness from one of them, the female candidates overwhelmingly asked for forgiveness, while most of the male candidates opted to give a gift (namely, one of their books).

PolitiFact’s live fact-check.

And of course, many, many winners and losers!

Vox

CNN

The Washington Post

Fox News

The New York Times

NBC News

USA Today

OK, we’ll stop.

But really, all you need is … our debate coverage:

Our live blog.

Our post-debate politics chat.

Our before-and-after polling with Ipsos.