#michael mullany

[project-rosewood-476]

Perhaps in Another Life in a Different Time

For a brief moment in time everything is perfect in Tabby's life. Her step dad is out of the picture, Shes still graduating Rosewood, Horatio is no longer a threat and she has all of her friends back. Something isn't right here...

all characters belong to me so does maplehood creek and Rosewood prep

Tabby stirred awake with a yawn and stretched. She slowly sat up and blinked to take in her surroundings.

This wasn’t her room, oh no.

She was back in her childhood room. Her dresser had a mirror on top of it, including her many dolls, writing utensils, and papers across from her bed that was tucked neatly in a corner with a mound of her childhood plushies. Her coffee table held all of her books on top of it. 

What was she doing back here? Why was she here? What happened? Where are the others?

Tabby didn’t know what to feel. Confusion, dread, hope, excitement. She let out a whimper and grabbed her favorite plushy. A stuffed animal leopard named Simba before swinging her legs over and having her feet hit the sun-warmed hardwood floor. She shakily turned her doorknob, bracing herself for the scene before her as the door swung open.

It was peaceful.

The sound of the news was playing on the TV. Strangely, the house was less cluttered without her stepdad’s stuff constantly there. She’d forgotten how big their apartment was in all actuality. She looked past the living room area into their dining room and kitchen. Adam was sitting patiently coloring in his Spiderman coloring book, and her mom was making her usual Sunday breakfast shebang.   

Still no sign of her stepdad.

Where is he?

It wasn’t long before her rumbling stomach gave her away, and her mom looked over at her daughter.

“There you are, honey! You’re finally awake now! Why don’t you come help me cook breakfast, hm?” she gestured with the tilt of her head to the bread that needed to be toasted.

“Mom!” Tabby cried out as she ran over to give her mother the tightest hug she had given in a long while. Afraid she'd never see her again if she were to let go.

“Jesus, Tabby, what’s gotten into you?” her mother said, shocked at the sudden embrace of her teenage daughter.

“I’ve just missed you so much... You have no idea..” murmured the more petite girl as she held onto her for dear life, inhaling the scent of her clothes and hair. 

“Missed me? Tabby, you saw me last night before you went to bed. And before that, we went shopping and eating together,” she laughed light-heartedly.

“We did?”

Her mother gave her a confused look.

“Oh, I mean, yeah, we did. I remember,” Tabby bluffed horribly.

Her mother nodded before turning back to the stove to flip the sausages.

“Where’s Michael? Either of them?” 

The older woman hesitated before answering for a moment.

“He won’t be coming back. I’ve promised this to you before, and why are you asking such a silly question? You know his eldest son doesn’t live with us.”

Tabby stood there dumbfounded. She was relieved but also angry. Why did it take this long to kick him out? Why hadn't she done that sooner? And what happened? What was the last straw to kick him out? It wasn’t fair that she had suffered for ten years only to be able to enjoy the tail end of her childhood after missing out on so much. 

Still, she looked at her mom, who looked more lively and happier than she’d ever been in all the years she had known her, and then back at Adam, who was happily coloring away, brimming with personality and fully happy and relaxed. She supposed that it was better late than never.

“Are you going to help me cook or what?” asked her mother, tearing Tabby away from her thoughts.

“How can I with my hand-” she cut herself off as she held out both hands and let out an audible gasp as she examined her left hand. It wasn’t broken anymore. She could move it and feel everything again; she had complete control of her hand. 

That means that the Rosewood Massacre never happened.

That meant all of her friends were still alive.

The older woman looked at her daughter with a weird look.

“N-nevermind, I’ll start toasting,” Tabby said quietly as she went to work.

—----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tabby took her sweet time helping to cook breakfast and sitting down to eat with her family. If this was all too good to be true, then she wasn’t going to miss any of this, and she was going to take full advantage of this. Besides, she didn’t know if she would ever see her mother and baby brother again. Hell, she didn’t know if she could get food like this again!

“This was what a family is supposed to be,” said Tabby in thought as she listened to Adam complain about the 3rd grade, how they’re doing multiplication already, and how the minute timed hundred questions worksheet gave him so much anxiety. Tabby chuckled as she remembered that all too well. Adam never stopped talking, even in between bites of cereal and pancakes. He was always the chatterbox in the family, and she was amazed at how he never choked on anything. The children’s mother ate daintily as she sipped her coffee, watching the news.

“So, do you have any plans today? I was thinking we could get together with the rest of the family and go to the lake since it’s beginning to warm up now, and lake pass season started last weekend!” Tabby’s mom turned to her excitedly with that glint in her eye, watching her daughter scarf down her second plate of everything.

“Um..” she trailed off, wiping her mouth on her sleeve and scrunched down. The lake! She’d forgotten about the lake. It was one of her favorite places to go in the summer. It felt like it’d been years since she returned there. She itched at the opportunity to take it as she didn’t know if she would have this chance again.

“I was thinking of going to see my friends…You know, to hang out and check up on them if that's okay..” she asked meekly. She felt terrible for rejecting her mom, but she had to know if they were still there, okay, and what they were up to.

“Well, why don’t you invite them to join us and make it a family and friends outing?” she offered.

Tabby’s ears perked up.

“Really? You mean it? All 14 of them? But what if they can’t come?”

“Then invite as many as possible.”

“O-okay, I’ll do that…” Tabby said excitedly between mouthfuls of food and scarfing the rest down before jumping out of the seat and trying to do everything simultaneously.

“Jesus, Tabby, slow down!”

“I can’t, Mom. I have to hurry! I’ll be back in a bit! I love you!” Tabby said in a rushed voice as she put her plate in the sink, grabbed her plaid jacket, and gave her mom another tight hug and kiss. She hugged Adam tightly and ruffled his hair before heading out the door.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tabby walked slightly taller with confidence and pep in her steps. The town was exactly how she remembered it, yet it was more colorful. 

She knew exactly where she was stopping first.

She stopped by the familiar barn red, worn-down house just a few blocks before Rosewood. Tabby knocked briskly before stepping back and praying she would be there.

The door creaked open, and a pale, lanky girl with a ginger pixie cut poked her head out the door to see who it was before opening it fully.

“Autumn!” Tabby said as she ran to her, practically tackling her into a hug.

“Tabby? What are you doing here?” asked Autumn, who was equally confused but always welcomed the shorter girl into her home. She’d never been the one to turn down Tabby’s affections.

“I’d thought I’d never see you again! Or find you here! I missed you so much!” she said, almost bursting into tears and holding onto her for dear life, afraid to let go.

“What are you talking about? You saw me and the rest on Friday, remember? What do you mean you wouldn’t find me here? You’re acting like you returned from a war and had no idea where we were!” Autumn said as she tried to pry Tabby off of her.

“Oh, you have no idea,” said Tabby, sitting crisscross and looking up at the ginger girl.

“So what are you doing here so early in the morning?” inquisitive Autumn said, getting her siblings nice and comfy and turning on the TV for them.

“I was wondering if you had plans today. My mom wants to take us all to the lake today! I still have to see if the rest can come, but I hope you will go,” she answered as she made herself at home with a cup of coffee and set one up for Autumn.

“I can’t”

“What?”

“I said I can’t,” Autumn went about her morning routine.

“What do you mean you can’t? If it’s about Riah and Mere, we can take them along, too! My mom said she was okay with it, and I’m sure your mom will be too!”

“It’s not that. I just don’t belong.”

“Nonsense, you’re like my big sister to me. You’re already family whether you like it or not. Now stop making excuses!”

“No, I mean I don’t belong here,” said Autumn, emphasizing the ‘I’ and coming up to Tabby, resting her thin hands on her shoulders and looking her in the eyes. “You don’t belong here.”

Tabby looked back, confused.

“What do you mean?”

“This isn’t your story. This isn’t your timeline. I don’t know how we both got here, but we’re not supposed to be here.” she explained gently.

“B-but can we just stay here…just for a little longer… I just found you again after months of pain, loneliness, and mourning. I’ve seen my mom happy and Adam… We have everything good again. This was what was supposed to be,” she trailed off, failing miserably at the onslaught of tears streaming down her face. 

“Perhaps in another life in a different time, huh?” Autumn said solemnly, wiping the tears from her chubby cheeks.

“It’s just not fair!” Tabby wailed

“I know.”

“I don’t want you to go.”

“I know, but your people need you.”

“I don’t want to go.”

“I know. That’s why I’m forcing you to.”

“Huh?”

Autumn pushed Tabby as hard as she could back into the abyss that was her mind. It sucked her in like a black hole.

With that, Tabby woke up.

[weirdesplinder]

E se Jane Austen fosse un vampiro?

Ho notato che i post che dedico a Jane Austen hanno sempre molto successo, è un argomento che evidentemente vi interessa, perciò ecco un nuovo post  a lei dedicato, o meglio dedicato ad alcune serie che la vedono protagonista in veste di vampiro però.

-Serie Immortal Jane Austen di Janet Mullany

Inedita in italiano

1. Jane and the Damned  

Link: https://amzn.to/3w0zIXf         

Trama:  Nel 1797, quando l'aspirante scrittrice Jane Austen diventa uno dei Dannati, i vampiri belli, alla moda e sexy dell'Inghilterra georgiana, la sua famiglia insiste affinché prenda le acque di Bath, l'unica cura conosciuta. Ma la città diventa un bagno di sangue quando i francesi invadono e i Dannati sono gli unici che possono rovesciare i francesi e salvare l’Inghilterra. Jane ora considera la sua trasformazione in vampiro come un dono. Rifiuta la cura e scopre un mondo di libertà, amore e avventura come vampiro. Ma essendo immortale, perde la capacità di scrivere e deve recidere i legami con la sua amata sorella Cassandra e il resto della sua famiglia. All'ombra della ghigliottina, Jane dovrà decidere se la vita eterna e l'amore sono un prezzo troppo alto da pagare per la perdita di ciò che significa di più per lei come mortale.

2. Jane Austen, Blood Persuasion, a novel

Trama: È il 1810 e i Dannati sono stati banditi dalla buona società di città e si sono rifugiati in campagna. I vecchi amici non morti di Jane Austen sono diventati quindi i suoi nuovi vicini, scatenando l'inferno nel suo tranquillo villaggio giusto in tempo per interrompere il lavoro di Jane su quello che sarà il suo capolavoro. All'improvviso la nipote di Jane flirta pericolosamente con i vampiri, e un'amica zitella, un tempo rispettabile, ha scoperto le gioie proibite del rapporto intimo con i Dannati (e prende in prestito le preziose calze di seta di Jane). Scrivere è semplicemente impossibile ora, con creature assassine che si aggirano per le viuzze un tempo pacifiche del villaggio. E con il ritorno delle sue caratteristiche di vampiro, una guerra civile che incombe tra le fazioni dei Dannati e un ex amante che intende trascorrere l'eternità incolpandola per il suo cuore spezzato, Jane si trova ad affrontare un anno davvero molto impegnativo.

- Jane bites back, di Michael Thomas Ford

Inedito in italiano

Link: https://amzn.to/3SpCNrm

Trama: Duecento anni dopo la sua morte, Jane Austen è ancora circondata dalla letteratura che ama, ma ora è perché è la proprietaria di Flyleaf Books in una sonnolenta città universitaria nello stato di New York. Ogni giorno guarda i suoi romanzi volare via dagli scaffali, insieme a dozzine di sequel, spin-off e adattamenti non autorizzati. Jane può anche essere un vampiro non morto, ma i suoi libri hanno acquisito una vita propria. A peggiorare le cose, il manoscritto che ha terminato poco prima di essere trasformata in vampiro è stato rifiutato dagli editori ben 116 volte. Jane desidera far sapere al mondo chi è, ma quando un improvviso scherzo del destino la riporta sotto i riflettori, deve nascondere la sua vera identità e respingere un uomo oscuro del suo passato mentre si destreggia tra due corteggiatori moderni. Riuscirà l'inimitabile Jane Austen a mantenere la calma in questa commedia di buone maniere, o mostrerà a tutti cosa può fare una donna con uno spirito acuto e una serie di zanne ancora più affilate?

 -Vampire Darcy's Desire: A Pride and Prejudice Adaptation, di Regina Jeffers

Inedito in italiano

Link: https://amzn.to/3vV5wN3

Trama: Immaginate la trama di Orgoglio e pregiudizio ma con qualche sostanziale variante come il fatto che Darcy per colpa di una maledizione di famiglia sia un dhampir metà umano metà vampiro. Immmaginate poi che Wickham sia un vero vampiro di duecento anni che odia Darcy per colpa di ciò che gli fece un suo antenato, e immaginate che anche l’antenata di Elizabeth fosse una sua conoscenza.

- Mr. Darcy, vampiro, di Amanda Grange  

Edito da Tea

https://amzn.to/3xQsFLH

Trama:  Bè il titolo dice già tutto, no? L'autrice ha deciso di aggiungere  al  fanstico mondo di Jane Austen un pizzico di paranormale. Mr. Darcy,  Vampyre inizia dove Orgoglio e pregiudizio finiva e introduce un'oscura  maledizione di famiglia…….Pericolo, oscurità e amore immortale, i punti  forti di questo libro. Da leggere solo se siete particolarmente amanti  della Austen e del gusto gotico, se amate il paranormal lasciate stare  perchè qui di paranormal in realtà c’è ben poco.

- Altra autrice che ha dedicato una serie di libri a Jane Austen è Carrie Bebris. Ogni  romanzo della serie è la rivisitazione in chiave lievemente, e ripeto  lievemente, parnormal di una delle opere della Austen, quella dedicata  ad Orgoglio e pregiudizio è:

Orgoglio e preveggenza

Edito Tea

https://amzn.to/3m3xO0I

Trama:  È cosa nota e universalmente riconosciuta che uno scapolo in possesso  di un solido patrimonio debba essere in cerca di moglie.“ Ed è una  verità cui non si sottrae Mr. Frederick Parrish, ricco e affascinante  gentiluomo americano, che sta per convolare a nozze con Caroline  Bingley. Un'atmosfera di festa avvolge i fidanzati e il matrimonio pare  suggellare la promessa di una vita serena e felice. Ma presto la gioia  s'incrina e la coppia è turbata da una serie di strani episodi: fenomeni  di sonnambulismo, cavalli imbizzarriti senza una ragione, uno  spaventoso incendio e misteriosi incidenti. Qualcuno sta perseguitando i  Parrish, ma la pericolosità della situazione pare sfuggire a tutti. A  tutti tranne a Elizabeth e Darcy, amici della giovane donna e anch'essi  sposi novelli, che mettono da parte i progetti per la luna di miele per  aiutare Caroline.

- La Harpercollins Italia, ha reso  disponibili in ebook tre dei quattro racconti che quattro autrici  famose hanno creato per  omaggiare Jane Austen,  tre storie ispirate ai  suoi romanzi, ma con un pizzico di paranormal. In lingua originale i 4 racconti sono stati raccolti in una antologia intitolata Bespelling Jane Austen. Mentre da noi in Italia tre dei racconti sopracitati, quelli di Mary Balogh, Susan Krinard e Colleen Gleason, sono disponibili singolarmente in versione ebook:

Titolo: Incantevole Persuasione

di Mary Balogh

https://amzn.to/2VXv2iU

Avevano  cercato di farle dimenticare quel pomeriggio quando, bambina, Jane  aveva dichiarato di essere stata, in una vita precedente, la giovane  figlia del curato. Ma il ricordo era rimasto lì, pronto ad affiorare e  ora finalmente, grazie a quel giovane e avvenente capitano, tutto  riemerge in superficie.Ci conosciamo da una o dieci vite. Da sempre, a  dire il vero… sono le parole che lui ha pronunciato, rivelandole una  verità inconcepibile, eppure inconfutabile. Perché il Capitano Mitford  altri non è che il suo amato perduto. Ma in tutte le vite passate la  loro storia d'amore è finita tragicamente. Sono destinati a non veder  coronato il loro amore, o forse esiste una speranza che, un giorno, il  sentimento trionfi sul crudele destino?

Titolo: Il castello di Northanger

di Susan Krinard

https://amzn.to/3g0CUXK

Caroline  Merrill nutre una passione davvero smodata per i libri e in particolare  per le novelle popolate di vampiri, castelli e buie notti di luna.  Caroline ha anche una sfrenata fantasia, che la porta ad ambientare  storie in ogni luogo che visita e a fare di ogni persona che colpisce la  sua curiosità la protagonista di un racconto. Non ha idea di quanto  possa essere pericolosa questa sua innocente passione, almeno finché non  inizia a sospettare che l'affascinante Mr. Blanchard sia uno di quei  succhiasangue che popolano le storie che tanto ama.

Titolo: Vampiri, orgoglio e pregiudizio

di Coleen Gleason

https://amzn.to/3yON4lE

Non  c'è niente di peggio di un uomo arrogante e presuntuoso!, considera  Lizzie Bennet subito dopo aver conosciuto Mr. Darcy. E poi… che razza di  nome è Fitzwilliam? E da dove esce quel suo modo di parlare affettato,  tutto fatto di Miss Elizabeth, lunghi silenzi e parole ricercate, quasi  lui fosse un damerino nel bel mezzo di un salone da ballo del 1800  invece che un giovane a una festa aziendale nel Ventunesimo secolo. In  effetti, però, quando si ritrovano vestiti entrambi in abiti Regency  durante la festa di Halloween, lui sembra proprio calato nel suo  elemento. E sembrano adatti alla notte delle streghe anche quegli occhi  dalla sfumatura rossiccia e quei denti aguzzi ben mascherati dalle  labbra sensuali, che lasciano immaginare storie oscure di zombie,  vampiri e…

[tariqk]

This dude went looking into Gartner's Hype Cycle, which is basically the Hero's Journey, and discovered that, like the Hero's Journey, it has its faults:

We're terrible at making predictions. Especially about the future.

An alarming number of technology trends are flashes in the pan.

Lots of technologies just die. Period.

The technical insight is often correct, but the implementation isn't there

We've been working on a few core technical problems for decades

Some technologies keep receding into the future

Lots of technologies make progress when no-one is looking

Many major technologies flew under the Hype Cycle radar

[mitjo-deactivated]

Jonah. Michal. The evil twin villains.

JONAH AND MICHAL FUCK

Jonas Wagner more like?? Jared Walnuts

Mitch Mueller more like?? Michael Mullany

[un-enfant-immature]

Hybrid cloud data specialist Datrium nabs $60M led by Samsung at a $282M valuation

Cloud services — where our data, apps and computing power are all being managed in servers owned by others, many miles from where we are sitting — have taken off like a rocket in the decade with the rise of smaller devices, but in the business world, hybrid solutions — mixing cloud with on-premise architectures — remains the order of the day. And today, a provider of hybrid cloud services has raised a round of funding to capitalise on that. Datrium, a provider of back-up and other services for businesses that store and use data in hybrid environments, has raised $60 million in a Series D round of funding.

The company is not disclosing its valuation — we’re asking — but PitchBook estimates that it was at $222 million pre-money, putting it at $282 million post-money. This was an upround compared to previous raises, but it’s also playing on a more modest field than some of its competitors. As a point of comparison, another notable hybrid cloud back-up and data management startup, Rubrik, raised $180 million at a $1.3 billion valuation last year.

Interestingly, Datrium and Rubrik share an investor. This latest round was led by Samsung’s Catalyst Fund, with Icon Ventures, NEA and Lightspeed Venture Partners also participating. Lightspeed (whose investing partner founded and leads Rubrik) also backs Rubrik.

Large enterprises are gradually making the move to the cloud, but they are doing so while also continuing to use their legacy services and architectures — in part to continue sweating those assets, and in part because if something isn’t broken, it’s tempting fate to try to fix it. As a result of that, hybrid cloud services have been a big business up to now, with estimates that it will be a $44.6 billion market this year, and growing to $97.6 billion by 2023.

“As a world leader in memory and storage technologies, we’re always looking for novel and innovative ways to advance datacenter technology,” said Shankar Chandran, senior vice president and managing director, Samsung Catalyst Fund, in a statement. ��At this unique moment in time—when data is powering the economy—cutting-edge infrastructure, like Datrium’s hybrid cloud platform, will help enterprises overcome major obstacles in data analysis and storage. We are excited to be an investor in their future.”

And with a market of that size, startups are not only ones targeting it. Google has gone all-in on hybrid; VMware is also interested; and HPE has made some acquisitions to expand its hybrid computing business, as has Microsoft (at least twice), and Cisco.

Datrium — with its flagship DVX platform — has been one of the hopefuls in providing a specific area of data services to enterprises operating hybrid environments: data management and data backup, with customers ranging from large players in healthcare and finance through to media and entertainment. Interestingly, it’s doing so at a time when others like Rubrik have gradually been building more cloud-only solutions to expand beyond hybrid environments customers relying on these.

With this round Michael Mullany of Icon Ventures — formerly a VP of marketing and products for VMware — is joining the board of Datrium.

“We are thrilled to partner with Samsung and Icon Ventures to expand our technical and geographical momentum,” said Tim Page, CEO of Datrium, in a statement. “Enterprises globally have the same problems in simplifying compute and data management across on-prem and cloud. Where SANs don’t even have a  path to cloud, traditional HCI has too many tradeoffs for core datacenters – backup requires separate purchasing and administration, and cloud DR automation is seldom guaranteed. Larger enterprises are realizing that Datrium software offers them a simpler path.”

[enotefound-blog]

La fortuna de ocho hombres equivale a los ingresos de 3,6 mil millones de personas

Por: GERRY MULLANY y MARINA FRANCO

New York Times

Ocho hombres concentran un nivel de riqueza equivalente al de 3,6 mil millones de personas, la mitad más pobre de la población mundial, según un nuevo reporte de Oxfam —una confederación internacional de organizaciones dedicadas a combatir la pobreza—, que deja en claro la extrema desigualdad entre los ricos y pobres en el planeta.

El reporte, basado en la lista anual de multimillonarios de Forbes, fue preparado con vistas al inicio este 17 de enero del Foro Económico Mundial de Davos, Suiza, un encuentro anual de líderes empresariales y de la política.

Se trata de un informe similar al del año pasado, que halló que la riqueza conjunta de las 62 personas más acaudaladas del mundo era igual a la de la mitad de la población mundial. Pero Oxfam revisó sus hallazgos ante nuevos datos recopilados por la compañía global de servicios financieros Credit Suisse.

“Este año hemos averiguado que la riqueza del 50 por ciento más pobre de la población mundial es inferior a lo que se había calculado anteriormente, y que tan solo ocho personas bastan para igualar su patrimonio total”, señala la confederación en su documento “Una economía para el 99% por ciento”.

Los ocho hombres más ricos del mundo según los datos de Forbes son:

– Bill Gates, el fundador de Microsoft, con un patrimonio de 75 mil millones de dólares

– Amancio Ortega Gaona, el español dueño de la firma Inditex, que incluye la tienda Zara, con 67 mil millones de dólares

– Warren Buffet, de la firma de inversiones Berkshire Hathaway, quien acumula 60,8 mil millones

– Carlos Slim Helú, magnate de telecomunicaciones mexicano, con 50 mil millones de dólares

– Jeff Bezos, de Amazon, con 45,2 mil millones de dólares

– Mark Zuckerberg, creador de Facebook, quien suma 44,6 mil millones

– Lawrence Ellison, de la empresa tecnológica Oracle, con 43,6 mil millones

– Michael Bloomberg, exalcalde de Nueva York y fundador del conglomerado de medios Bloomberg, quien acumula 40 mil millones de dólares

La situación en América Latina

Oxfam no ha terminado de recopilar los datos específicos para América Latina y el Caribe en parte porque, para que la información sea equiparable, deben contemplar la devaluación de las monedas en cada país. No obstante, es probable que la desigualdad económica en la región “siga recrudeciéndose si no se toman medidas concertadas” para reducir la brecha, indicó Rosa Cañete Alonso, economista y coordinadora regional de la campaña “Iguales” de Oxfam contra la desigualdad.

Por ejemplo, la existencia de paraísos fiscales “que permite a multimillonarios y grandes multinacionales eludir el pago de impuestos”, dijo Cañete Alonso en entrevista. “El otro gran tema es el salarial. Los salarios mínimos legales en la mayoría de los países de América Latina no cubren lo necesario para la subsistencia”, agregó.

Datos preliminares de Oxfam para este 2017, compilados a partir de cifras de Credit Suisse y Forbes, “muestran cierta reducción en las fortunas, sobre todo de los grandes multimillonarios latinoamericanos, pero eso está influenciado por el tipo de cambio”, dijo Cañete Alonso. Aun así, destacó que el año pasado, 32 personas de la lista de Forbes de América Latina ya concentraban la misma riqueza que el 50 por ciento de la población de la región.

De hecho, un informe de 2016 de Oxfam sobre América Latina y el Caribe definía a la región como la más desigual de todo el mundo, a partir de la distribución de los ingresos per cápita.

En Honduras, por ejemplo, los más acaudalados percibían hacia finales de 2014 un salario anual 3919 veces mayor que el del quintil más pobre del país centroamericano, de acuerdo con el reporte. En México, de donde es originario Slim, uno de los ocho hombres más ricos, el quintil más pobre tiene ingresos anuales 482 veces menores que los multimillonarios.

Cañete Alonso dijo que “las brechas que se ven en la región no solo en ingresos, sino en oportunidades, siguen siendo muy profundas. Esto es bastante preocupante porque la región empieza a vivir una época de desaceleración”, en particular por las caídas en precios de materias primas o por el efecto económico que la elección de Donald Trump con promesas proteccionistas empieza a tener en países como México. Gobiernos como el brasileño ya anunciaron fuertes recortes sociales.

Una situación regional que requiere atención particular y que deriva de la desigualdad es la violencia que vive la región, con la mayor cantidad de ciudades violentas pese a no estar en situación de guerra, dijo la economista. “No es casual que América Latina tenga el mayor número” de ciudades peligrosas fuera de sitios en guerra y también sea la región más desigual del mundo. “La desigualdad provoca, o está muy asociada a, la violencia. Los gobiernos tienen que empezar a enfrentar eso”, dijo Cañete Alonso.

[narcisbolgor-blog]

Australian PM demands answers in ‘inexplicable’ killing of Justine Ruszczyk

(CNN)Australia's prime minister has demanded answers to the "inexplicable" killing of an Australian-American woman shot by police in Minneapolis.

"This is a shocking killing. It is inexplicable," Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull told Australian Channel 9's "Today" program Wednesday, in his first public comments since Justine Ruszczyk's death on Saturday.

"I mean, how can a woman out in the street in her pyjamas seeking assistance from the police be shot like that?" he said. "We are demanding answers, something clearly went tragically wrong."

Ruszczyk had called 911 to report a possible sexual assault near her home, her fianc, Don Damond, said Monday.

Two police officers responded, and one of them, Mohamed Noor, shot her in the abdomen, killing her, according to police and an autopsy report.

Police have not explained how the shooting happened, leaving friends, family -- and now the Australian government -- demanding answers.

How Justine Ruszczyk's friend heard of her death

Vigil

Australian friends and family gathered on a beach near Ruszczyk's childhood home to honor the 40-year-old yoga teacher and spiritual healer in a silent vigil at dawn on Wednesday.

Around 200 friends and family gathered on Freshwater Beach in the northern Sydney suburbs as the sun rose, holding candles in silent memory of the Sydney native, according to CNN affiliate Seven News.

At 7 a.m. local time (5 p.m. ET), mourners silently laid her favorite pink flowers into the swell in a low key ceremony led by her father, John Ruszczyk, Australian media reported.

Members of community where she grew up, including former school friends, ex-colleagues and their families, attended the vigil. The community is still coming to terms with her unexpected death on the other side of the world.

Questions asked

In a press conference held by Minneapolis Mayor Betsy Hodges, several Australian journalists probed officials about the experience and training of the officers involved, as well as deeper questions about the country's gun and law enforcement cultures.

Mayor: I wish officer would speak

Who is police officer who fired shot?

What we know and don't know

Woman killed was to marry next month

Seven News reporter Ashlee Mullany demanded to know why Ruszczyk's family in Australia was being kept in the dark as to the progress of the investigation.

Hodges said that the victim's father and brother would be informed when the independent body investigating the shooting had any information that it was able to release.

Another reporter asked why two relatively inexperienced officers were responding to the call, and questioned the effectiveness of their training.

"Why do you have a law and order culture in this city where you have two rookie youngsters arrive in a patrol car late at night, with guns they don't seem to know how to use?" asked Paul McGeough, chief foreign correspondent of the Sydney Morning Herald, one of the country's largest-circulation dailies and the hometown paper of Ruszczyk before she moved to the US.

Mayor: Can't compel officer to make statement

Hodges admitted that the question spoke to the wider culture of policing in the US.

"We are in a country where people have guns but... these were two fully trained police officers," she said.

"What I can say is that, even before we had an officer-involved shooting a couple of years ago, even before that, we as a city were doing everything we could to put a foundation of 21st century policing in place."

In his televised interview, Turnbull said that Australian Consul-General Michael Wood, based in Chicago, is demanding answers of the Minneapolis city government.

"We are providing all the support we can, but this is... it seems inexplicable, but note, there will be some answers given in due course.

"At this point, it is a tragic loss, this young Australian woman and again, our hearts go out to her family with sorrow and with condolence and with love."

More From this publisher : HERE

=> *********************************************** Read More Here: Australian PM demands answers in ‘inexplicable’ killing of Justine Ruszczyk ************************************ =>

Australian PM demands answers in ‘inexplicable’ killing of Justine Ruszczyk was originally posted by 11 VA Viral News

[morganbelarus]

Australian PM demands answers in ‘inexplicable’ killing of Justine Ruszczyk

(CNN)Australia's prime minister has demanded answers to the "inexplicable" killing of an Australian-American woman shot by police in Minneapolis.

"This is a shocking killing. It is inexplicable," Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull told Australian Channel 9's "Today" program Wednesday, in his first public comments since Justine Ruszczyk's death on Saturday.

"I mean, how can a woman out in the street in her pyjamas seeking assistance from the police be shot like that?" he said. "We are demanding answers, something clearly went tragically wrong."

Ruszczyk had called 911 to report a possible sexual assault near her home, her fianc, Don Damond, said Monday.

Two police officers responded, and one of them, Mohamed Noor, shot her in the abdomen, killing her, according to police and an autopsy report.

Police have not explained how the shooting happened, leaving friends, family -- and now the Australian government -- demanding answers.

How Justine Ruszczyk's friend heard of her death

Vigil

Australian friends and family gathered on a beach near Ruszczyk's childhood home to honor the 40-year-old yoga teacher and spiritual healer in a silent vigil at dawn on Wednesday.

Around 200 friends and family gathered on Freshwater Beach in the northern Sydney suburbs as the sun rose, holding candles in silent memory of the Sydney native, according to CNN affiliate Seven News.

At 7 a.m. local time (5 p.m. ET), mourners silently laid her favorite pink flowers into the swell in a low key ceremony led by her father, John Ruszczyk, Australian media reported.

Members of community where she grew up, including former school friends, ex-colleagues and their families, attended the vigil. The community is still coming to terms with her unexpected death on the other side of the world.

Questions asked

In a press conference held by Minneapolis Mayor Betsy Hodges, several Australian journalists probed officials about the experience and training of the officers involved, as well as deeper questions about the country's gun and law enforcement cultures.

Mayor: I wish officer would speak

Who is police officer who fired shot?

What we know and don't know

Woman killed was to marry next month

Seven News reporter Ashlee Mullany demanded to know why Ruszczyk's family in Australia was being kept in the dark as to the progress of the investigation.

Hodges said that the victim's father and brother would be informed when the independent body investigating the shooting had any information that it was able to release.

Another reporter asked why two relatively inexperienced officers were responding to the call, and questioned the effectiveness of their training.

"Why do you have a law and order culture in this city where you have two rookie youngsters arrive in a patrol car late at night, with guns they don't seem to know how to use?" asked Paul McGeough, chief foreign correspondent of the Sydney Morning Herald, one of the country's largest-circulation dailies and the hometown paper of Ruszczyk before she moved to the US.

Mayor: Can't compel officer to make statement

Hodges admitted that the question spoke to the wider culture of policing in the US.

"We are in a country where people have guns but... these were two fully trained police officers," she said.

"What I can say is that, even before we had an officer-involved shooting a couple of years ago, even before that, we as a city were doing everything we could to put a foundation of 21st century policing in place."

In his televised interview, Turnbull said that Australian Consul-General Michael Wood, based in Chicago, is demanding answers of the Minneapolis city government.

"We are providing all the support we can, but this is... it seems inexplicable, but note, there will be some answers given in due course.

"At this point, it is a tragic loss, this young Australian woman and again, our hearts go out to her family with sorrow and with condolence and with love."

More From this publisher : HERE

=> *********************************************** Learn More Here: Australian PM demands answers in ‘inexplicable’ killing of Justine Ruszczyk ************************************ =>

Australian PM demands answers in ‘inexplicable’ killing of Justine Ruszczyk was originally posted by 16 MP Just news

[theinvinciblenoob]

Cloud services — where our data, apps and computing power are all being managed in servers owned by others, many miles from where we are sitting — have taken off like a rocket in the decade with the rise of smaller devices, but in the business world, hybrid solutions — mixing cloud with on-premise architectures — remains the order of the day. And today, a provider of hybrid cloud services has raised a round of funding to capitalise on that. Datrium, a provider of back-up and other services for businesses that store and use data in hybrid environments, has raised $60 million in a Series D round of funding.

The company is not disclosing its valuation — we’re asking — but PitchBook estimates that it was at $222 million pre-money, putting it at $282 million post-money. This was an upround compared to previous raises, but it’s also playing on a more modest field than some of its competitors. As a point of comparison, another notable hybrid cloud back-up and data management startup, Rubrik, raised $180 million at a $1.3 billion valuation last year.

Interestingly, Datrium and Rubrik share an investor. This latest round was led by Samsung’s Catalyst Fund, with Icon Ventures, NEA and Lightspeed Venture Partners also participating. Lightspeed (whose investing partner founded and leads Rubrik) also backs Rubrik.

Large enterprises are gradually making the move to the cloud, but they are doing so while also continuing to use their legacy services and architectures — in part to continue sweating those assets, and in part because if something isn’t broken, it’s tempting fate to try to fix it. As a result of that, hybrid cloud services have been a big business up to now, with estimates that it will be a $44.6 billion market this year, and growing to $97.6 billion by 2023.

“As a world leader in memory and storage technologies, we’re always looking for novel and innovative ways to advance datacenter technology,” said Shankar Chandran, senior vice president and managing director, Samsung Catalyst Fund, in a statement. “At this unique moment in time—when data is powering the economy—cutting-edge infrastructure, like Datrium’s hybrid cloud platform, will help enterprises overcome major obstacles in data analysis and storage. We are excited to be an investor in their future.”

And with a market of that size, startups are not only ones targeting it. Google has gone all-in on hybrid; VMware is also interested; and HPE has made some acquisitions to expand its hybrid computing business, as has Microsoft (at least twice), and Cisco.

Datrium — with its flagship DVX platform — has been one of the hopefuls in providing a specific area of data services to enterprises operating hybrid environments: data management and data backup, with customers ranging from large players in healthcare and finance through to media and entertainment. Interestingly, it’s doing so at a time when others like Rubrik have gradually been building more cloud-only solutions to expand beyond hybrid environments customers relying on these.

With this round Michael Mullany of Icon Ventures — formerly a VP of marketing and products for VMware — is joining the board of Datrium.

“We are thrilled to partner with Samsung and Icon Ventures to expand our technical and geographical momentum,” said Tim Page, CEO of Datrium, in a statement. “Enterprises globally have the same problems in simplifying compute and data management across on-prem and cloud. Where SANs don’t even have a  path to cloud, traditional HCI has too many tradeoffs for core datacenters – backup requires separate purchasing and administration, and cloud DR automation is seldom guaranteed. Larger enterprises are realizing that Datrium software offers them a simpler path.”

via TechCrunch

[project-rosewood-476]

Chapter 10/ Lyra

Adam's missing his sister more than ever but what happens when he unknowingly saved a ghost girl who may be closer to him than he thought. What kind of bond will form between the unlikely pair?

Adam mullany, Tabby Anderson, Michael mullany and maplehood creek all belong to me

some iterations of the creeps and the pocket belong to @creepypasta-shtick and you should go check them out!

Adam stood by his bedroom window, resting his head on his arms and watching the other kids play in the cold weather. He wished he could play with the other kids, but his father would say no, saying that they’re bad people and that he shouldn’t want to associate with them.

But those are the people he goes to school with. He knows those people. How can they be bad people?

He wishes that his sister was here to explain things to him. To spend time with him, to love him.

He wishes he wasn’t so goddamn alone all the time.

Adam sighed before noticing the room getting colder and the hairs sticking up from the back of his neck. He slowly turned around and gasped as he saw the horrifying sight before him with his wide eyes.

It was the girl’s grave he cleared in the cemetery not long ago.

“Wha- what are you doing here? You’re not supposed to be here! Who are you?” stammered the little boy, startled by the ghost’s appearance. His wide eyes widened impossibly more. The Ghost’s appearance was unsettling. Half of her jaw was unhinged and bloody, and her body was covered in loose, bloody bandages. That seemed to be the only thing holding her body together, save for the scraps of fabric that were once clothes. Some limbs were crooked and out of place, all signs of an accident. 

He’d forgotten that spirits usually keep their appearance their last few moments before death. It took forever for the two to stare at each other before the ghost girl snapped and contorted into a less intimidating form of herself.    

“Lyra…You…?” she croaked out

“Adam,” the boy finally said. “What are you doing here? Are you lost?” he asked, tilting his head to the side as he took several steps toward the apparition.

“Help…” croaked out Lyra.

“Help?”

“You.”

“Help me? Why would I need help?” Adam furrowed his eyebrow in confusion.

“Lost…Sister…” Lyra tilted her head to mimic Adam. Almost as if she's struggling to remember what she was going to say.

“Lost? Sister? Are you a lost sister? Is Tabby lost? Am I lost? W-what do you mean?” 

Lyra flowed to him at the speed of light. Adam barely blinked before he could register her movements. She put a crooked and mangled hand to his heart. He gasped and took a step back at how cold the touch was and the suddenness of it.

“Hurt”. The girl looked at him with a mix of sorrow and pity.

“I-” started Adam before gulping, “I guess I am..” he looked away.

“You…Toby..” Lyra pointed at him.

“No, I’m Adam,” he said, confused as he pointed at himself.

She shook her head.

“No. Toby.”

“Who.. was this Toby?” he began to prod gently. Any information to help her out.

“Brother…You..” Lyra was trying to explain but was frustrated at being unable to speak fluently.

“Was Toby your brother?”

Lyra looked down for a long time before answering.

“Yes.”

“I see,” said Adam as he rubbed the back of his neck, not knowing what to say or do next. What was he supposed to do with this information? Was he supposed to find this Toby? Give them closure? Was he just supposed to pass on a message to them?

“I’m sorry…” he said after a while to break the silence.

“Help.”

“Help.”

“Help!”

The ghost girl came towards him with each help, being more desperate than the last, until she got right in his face at the frightened boy. 

“HELP!”

“HELP WITH WHAT?!” Adam shouted back.

There was a knock on his bedroom door before it swung wide open, startling the little boy, turning to see who the intruder was.

“Who were you talking to in there?” demanded his father as he towered over the boy in the doorframe. 

“I was just-” Adam pointed to where Lyra was, only to discover she wasn’t there anymore.

“N-no one,” he muttered, confused,

“Then stop wasting time and clean the house!” Michael demanded

“But I don’t know how. I never-” he was cut off.

“Then figure it out! Or there will be trouble up ahead, do you understand? I didn’t raise a stupid kid, unlike your sister! God, where is she when I need her?!” he snapped, agitated.

“Yes,” Adam bowed his head in submission. Tabby always told him to do as he was told and stay out of the way. Straight path straight A Adam never go astray Adam.

It was nauseating, but it was a way of survival. Tabby made sure of it. But now that she wasn’t here anymore, he’d have to survive alone.

“Good,” his father answered before returning to his solidarity in his room.

Adam flinched when the door slammed shut. He’d better get to work before trouble finds him. He looked to where Lyra was, but she still didn’t show up. He shook his head before leaving the safety of his room to go clean.

[brucebai]

技术预言的陷阱：著名的Gartner曲线一定是对的吗？

技术预言的陷阱：著名的Gartner曲线一定是对的吗？ http://ift.tt/2zcHmhx

本文来自微信公众号“源码资本”（ID：sourcecodecapital），本文内容为【源码内参】第7期，作者 王晓亮，投资部分析师；授权36氪发布，转载请联系原作者。

观点：

各种模型本质上都是从某些侧面对复杂世界所做的局部剪影，只满足于局部清醒而忽略全局未知因素的人，很可能会掉入模型的陷阱中；

技术本身是极难预测的因素，即便是代表业界共识的Gartner曲线，在预判新兴技术走向时也远不够准确；

 在不确定性问题上，应追求认知优势而��完美预测，对变化和差异做二阶思考有助于建立这一优势。

一、命中抑或巧合？ 

1999年夏天，整个硅谷沉浸在燥热的狂喜里。Web技术和电子商务成为口口相传的热词，谁不谈论“新经济”、“新秩序”，谁就会被当成商业社会的盲人。初创公司只需在名字上加“e”或“.com”就能让估值翻番。《连线》杂志更是给出大胆预言：未来25年整个世界将步入长久的繁荣（The Long Boom）。

然而在大洋另一端，Gartner伦敦办公室的分析师Alexander Drobik却感到一阵莫名的寒意。这位IT老兵曾在航空业服役多年，早就见证过电子商务在机票预订和全球分销系统中的成熟应用。在他看来，别人谈论的e-business并不是多么颠覆性的技术，不值得市场为那些止不住亏损的公司贴上比盈利良好的公司更高的价签。他联想到1720年著名的南海泡沫，联想到四周助推互联网公司上市的狂热，他把市场预期与技术成熟度的偏离画在了文章开头那条有起有落的曲线上——这是Gartner在四年前刚提出的分析工具——然后他给出一个大胆预测：互联网泡沫将在2001年前崩盘。

这个观点在当时太过离经叛道，以至于Gartner内部也引起了不小争论。历经数月说服，评审委员会才下定决心将研报下发给数千名客户。这一天是1999年11月9日。四个月后，美国股市真如Alex预言的那样开始崩盘，NASDAQ指数在上探到历史新高5132.52点后急转直下，到2001年几近腰斩。Gartner光环曲线（Gartner Hype Cycle）也因此在业内一战成名。

但更重要的是，Alex不只预言了2001年电子商务的衰落，也预言了2003年后“True” e-business的诞生。回顾历史，LinkedIn��2002）、Skype（2003）、Facebook（2004）、Twitter（2006）都是在这段时期崭露端倪。这引起了业界和学界对Gartner曲线的兴趣——新技术的走向真的可以被预测吗？

二、统计意义上“不够准确”

如果你肯花时间，总能找到更多支持这条曲线的例子。比如Web技术公司的发展轨迹，Amazon和Yahoo在1998-2005年间的股价变动就和曲线走势非常接近。但你也可能听说过“后见之明”与“幸存者偏误”，很多事后看来有迹可循的因果链条，在萌发之初其实充满不确定性，只是我们选择性地过滤掉了那些与现状不相符的线索，好让它在叙事上显得融洽、和我们假想的模型更一致。

为了消除这种偏见，你应该提出反问：有多少曾经红极一时的公司没能从困境中爬出来？有多少曾被预言为前景广阔的技术最终只是昙花一现？

2016年，Icon Ventures的投资人Michael Mullany对此做出了有趣的探究。通过回溯2000-2016年间Gartner光环曲线提及的200多项新兴技术，他发现：

在炒作高峰后跌入谷底的技术中，很多没能再爬起来；有超过50项技术只炒作了一年就淡出人们视野；其中众包（2013）、HTML5（2012）、BYOD（自带设备，2012）和播客（2005）等技术虽然仍在使用，但也只能算是小有成就。

只有4项重大技术很早就被发现，而且完整地经历了曲线“先起-后落-再起”的阶段；它们是：云计算（2008）、3D 打印（2005）、自然语言搜索（2002）和电子墨水（2000）。

有一些被炒作过的领域在技术洞察上是有前瞻性的，但却因落地方式不对或市场仍不成熟，直到数年之后才重新得到应用，例如 Web Service Enabled Business Model（2003；现在Twilio、Plaid等公司采用这种模式）、公共认证服务（2002；类似于现在的Oauth认证）、万亿级架构（2006；可以容忍局部故障并尽快恢复的大规模计算体系）。

技术曲线也漏判了很多重大技术，如x86、NoSQL、Hadoop、开源技术等，它们或者很晚才被发现，或者从未出现在光环曲线上。

换言之，如果你是all in黑科技以求弯道超车的CEO，或是照着Gartner曲线撒网早期项目的的投资人，那么多数时间你都会铩羽而归。因为统计意义上，Gartner曲线的预测并不准确。但如果你擅长做二阶思考，能从人们都看得见的信息里发掘出少有人思考过的盲区，那么这条曲线其实很有价值。

三、从二阶思考中淘金

不妨从一个简单例子入手。下图是2017年7月发布的新兴技术曲线，密密麻麻排布着32项技术。如果你是创业者、投资人、咨询师，你的第一印象会是什么？

看起点，5G技术和边缘计算（edge computing）首次上榜，并被寄予厚望；

看高峰，物联网平台、深度学习、机器学习风头正盛，且预计2-5年内能进入成熟期；

看低谷，增强现实和虚拟现实的预期回归理性，且业界认为，虚拟现实正逐渐展露出应用前景。

这些结论都不错。但它对创业/投资/商业管理意味着什么？如何将它应用于行动和判断？这些才是我们真正感兴趣的议题。让我们对曲线做些加工，以投资领域为例，画一个4*4的矩阵，横轴是一项技术距离得到广泛应用所需的时间，从最短的“2年以内”到最长的“超过10年”，对应Gartner曲线上四类不同的标志；纵轴是我们对其商业价值的预判，同样分为四个层级。然后可以将曲线上的点一一映射到下图的矩阵中，对不同技术采取不同的投资策略。例如：一项技术的价值如果是颠覆性的，且在5年内能得到广泛应用，那我们就应当给予最高的投研优先级（对应图中深红区域）；反之，如果一项技术有较高价值，但距离工程和商业上的成熟还有5年以上距离，那么我们应当谨慎布局或者以储备认知为主（对应黄色和灰色区域）。

注：上图在技术成熟度和商业价值的判断上与Gartner曲线有所差异；仅供示意，不构成投资建议

你能在Gartner每年发布的报告中找到类似的矩阵（关键词：Gartner Priority Matrix）。但仅仅对曲线做形式上的变换，并不是我们的最终目的。信息的价值来源于差异化的思考和对变化的追问，例如：

评估准确性：Gartner对技术成熟度和潜在商业价值的判断和我一致吗？哪些过于乐观，哪些过于保守？相应的，各项技术在矩阵中的位置应该如何调整？

识别差异性：成熟度其实分两个维度——工程上和商业上；不同行业、不同国家在这两个维度的情况一样吗？在我关心的市场上，该技术的发展处于什么阶段？

动态化思考：哪些技术去年出现了而今年没有出现？哪些技术曾经消失而今年又一次上榜？背后的原因何在？媒体的热情曝光会缩短一项技术的成熟周期吗？哪些技术可能还没等自身成熟就已经被新浪潮取代？

对这些问题的回答决定了认知的质量。谨记Peter Thiel的教诲：公开的秘密没有价值，能带给你优势的，是别人未必认同但你却深深相信的道理。

限于篇幅，我们仅以最后一个问题为例做些延伸和阐释。对其他问题感兴趣的朋友可以持续关注源码的文章，或者从文末的问答环节寻找更多线索。

源码资本创始合伙人曹毅曾在《科技创新的9个面孔》一文中提出过“三浪叠加”的原理：

通常第一波技术驱动产生的影响正在势头上，第二波大的浪潮已经起来，有时甚至第三波浪潮也在积蓄力量。最典型的例子是2008年的中国零售业：第一波浪潮里，传统零售业在通过科技手段不断提高效率；第二波则是苏宁、国美这样的卖场通过“科技化”、“连锁化”、并购等方式做全国性扩张。那时大家都在享受超过百分之几十的增长，虽然也看到了第三波浪潮中以淘宝为代表的电商的崛起，但都误以为自己已经站得很高，而电商体量太小，不会对自己构成威胁……最后结果是，长江后浪推前浪，前浪死在温柔乡。

零售业并非个案。如果你有心回溯过往的Gartner曲线，会发现更多有趣的例子。

2003年，Gartner在消费新兴技术曲线上将MP3播放器列为即将走出低谷、得到广泛应用的技术；而到2007年，这项技术确实如愿走上了生产力的高峰。但就在同一年，另一项技术也悄悄攀上风口，它起初被称为Ultramobile Devices（超便携类计算机设备），而后演化出超极本、平板电脑，以至于今天无所不能的智能手机。MP3播放器的市场则在新技术侵蚀下逐渐萎缩，以至于今天，更多时候是作为便携设备的���功能。

类似的还有视频点播技术（Video on Demand）。2003年，Gartner认为至少还需5-10年这项技术才能成熟；但到了2007年，这项技术已经迎来商用的曙光，人们甚至开始畅想更快更好的宽带视频点播技术。然而谁都没想到，十年后的今天，最普及的却是彼时被看衰的移动端流媒体播放（Mobile TV Streaming）。

我并不想造成一种“唯新技术是瞻”的误解，只是想提醒那些已有成就的探索者们，对事物的变化仍要保持足够的敏锐，思维模型也需要时时更新。技术上的先发优势不总能保证你的商业模式固若金汤。它更应被看成一条生态链，螳螂在先，后有黄雀。所有技术物种都要靠不断进化和迭代才能保证阶段性的安全。

四、清醒者的困境

在文章最后，我想把视角再次拉回互联网泡沫破灭的那个夏天。

2000年，福布斯杂志向550家VC发出了关于投资回报的问询。其中Accel Partners第五期的21.6倍和Charles River Ventures的16.8倍在今天看来依然耀眼（数年后Accel投资了Facebook，CRV投资了Twitter，但同期回报都没能超过这个标杆）。

可即便是这两家明星VC，在Crosspoint Venture Partners面前也略显失色。Crosspoint在1996年那一期基金的回报是33.7倍——相当于四年前投资过1美元的LP，现在已经拿回了29.6美元，而且还有4.1美元在账户里。所以即便二级市场开始雪崩，Crosspoint依旧顺利募集了单期8.5亿美金的超级基金。

然而就在这年年底，Crosspoint突然宣布将本期基金全部退还给LP，并且无限期暂停下一期基金的募集。这在业界引起一片震动。其合伙人Rich Shapero不得不向外界解释：“二级市场的崩溃让我们过去所有的预测模型都失效了...如果市场的繁荣一去不复返，我们就没办法交出我们想交出��成绩单...我们有伟大的历史，我们不想毁掉它...这不是一个投资任何公司的好时候”。

摘自《一支顶级VC的自杀》，刘元，有改动

“不是一个投资任何公司的好时候。”这句尤其耐人寻味。

从结果看，NASDAQ指数直到2012年才重新站上3000点位；1999和2000年也成了美国风投历史上唯二的负IRR年份。但从另一面，Crosspoint也错失了这十二年来成立��LinkedIn、Skype、Facebook、Twitter、Airbnb和WhatsApp，而它的老对手NEA、CRV、Benchmark、Sequoia却坚持到了这些独角兽长成参天大树的那天。

可以说，Crosspoint对互联网泡沫和市场衰退的判断是清醒而准确的，只是这种宏观上的清醒并没能带来微观上的好运。风险投资本质上是一个捕捉“正向黑天鹅事件”的过程——多次有限损失的试错，总可以被一次极大收益的命中抵消。在黑天鹅问题上，起作用的不是平均值，而是极端值。就好比你无法安然渡过一条平均1米深的河流，因为风险全在河流最深处。纳西姆·塔勒布是研究黑天鹅事件的专家，他在金融危机爆发前数年就曾写书揭示金融体系的风险，他的经验或许可以给我们一些启示：

任何从观察中获取的知识都有陷阱。看过一万只白天鹅也无法证明黑天鹅不存在，这是归纳法固有的局限。在损失有限而收益无穷的问题上，你不知道的事比你知道的事更有意义。试图靠归纳法预测黑天鹅的人多半徒劳无功。在不确定性问题面前，你更容易通过收集证据来证明哪些事情是错的，而不是哪些事情是对的。证伪的价值总是被低估。

人们在使用科学模型时往往会犯两个错误：一是对问题做不恰当的抽象和简化，比如试图用平均值去概括一个80/20分布的事物，而忽略变量的方差；二是自我确认偏误，复杂系统内部往往充满难以察觉的相互依赖和非线性关系，如果你只关心如何微调自己对普通事件的理解，使新事件适应旧模型，那么最终模型会变得异常复杂以至于偏离真实情境。 

塔勒布的观点需要绕个弯才能理解。他揭示的不是“什么可为”，而是“什么不可为”。在他看来，人们过于轻视那些无法被语言精确描述的知识，过于迷信自己构建的模型，最终注定要在模型匹配不了现实的地方落入陷阱。 

而无论是Gartner曲线本身，还是Michael Mullany对曲线的回溯，抑或是Crosspoint对泡沫崩盘后世界的判断，本质上都是从某些侧面对复杂世界所做的局部剪影。对局部足够清醒是必要的，但不能因局部的自信而忽略更大的图景。在全局中，你不知道的事可能扮演着更重要的角色。保持谦卑心，不断扩宽认知边界，这既能帮你更好地抵御风险，也可能让风险站到对你更有利的一边。

五、One More Thing

在解释Gartner曲线的过程中，我有意避开了一些容易让人分神的技术细节。如果你对此感兴趣，下面两个自问自答可以视为上述内容的注脚和补充。

Q1：Gartner曲线是如何画出来的？背后有没有实证研究作为支撑？

A1：很多频繁引用它的人都不知道，这条波浪线其实是两条曲线的叠加。一条是Hype Level，反映的是媒体和公众对于该技术期望值中虚高的部分；另一条则是工程与商业上的成熟度。两者叠加后，Y轴对应一项技术的实际期望（expectation），X轴对应时间的演进。

Hype的本意是“夸大的宣传”。当一项技术取得突破、发布demo或推出产品时，媒体往往会快速跟进，关于技术前景的畅想和传闻会抬升公众的兴趣度。但随时间推进，客观的分析和试错会越来越多，宣传中不实的成分也就逐渐被市场淘汰，这是Hype Level先走高后回落的内在逻辑。而一项技术在工程和商业上随时间推进愈发成熟，这也和我们的常识相符。

需要注意的是，无论是hype还是expectation（即曲线Y轴），目前都没有统一的、公认的指标可以度量；技术成熟度和商业成熟度亦然。Gartner团队是通过访谈业内专家和从业者并进行分析预测的方式，来确定各项技术在曲线上所处的位置，因此存在一定的主观性，也不适合以定量眼光去考察，它的价值更多在于定性揭示各项技术在憧憬和现实间的偏离程度。

Q2：曲线只有这一种形态吗？有没有哪些变体？

A2：远不只一种。有些技术可能会经历凤凰涅槃式的变化，在首次出现时被热捧，而后因技术尚不成熟趋于冷寂，但数年后又因技术和产品上的重大进展重归大众视野，并掀起新一轮的炒作高峰。这时曲线会出现“双峰”形态，甚至第二峰比第一峰还高。一个经典的例子是Virtual Reality，你能猜到它最早一次出现在Gartner曲线上是什么时候吗？答案是1995年。

除Hype Level外，另一个思考维度是Maturity。技术并不总遵循线性增长的模式，有些技术的成熟周期明显比其他短。背后的原因可能有这样几类：

使用极其简单，安全隐患低，因此很快能从to C生意扩展到to B端；

技术有很强的可见性和示范效应，当其他人使用时，易于出现病毒传播；

产业链上游的供应商合力推动，或是技术本身可以借力现有的基础���施。

对应下方左图，当一项技术有幸踏上发展的快车道时，很可能不会有明显的低谷期，而是在预期回归理性后就步入成熟应用。反之，也有一些技术会经历长达数十年的低谷，因为底层科学研究的进展远比预想中缓慢，如人工智能和纳米计算。

另一类变体是“马尾效应”，指一项技术在工程上趋于成熟，但在不同行业中的发展命运却呈现明显差异。上图右侧给出的例子是RFID。这项技术在90年代中期曾被各行各业寄予厚望，但最终得到广泛应用的领域主要是快消和零售，在航空业货物分拣上的尝试很早就以失败告终。

此外，空间和时间的差异也值得考虑。一项技术在不同国家或地区所处的位置可能不同，但发展路径有相似性。先行者靠试错积累的经验既能为后来者指明道路，也能加速该技术在后发地区的成熟速度，进而产生空间套利的机会。这和孙正义常说的“时间机器”理论不谋而合——先在美国这样的发达国家开展业务、验证模式，然后等时机成熟再凭经验优势杀回日本和中国。

BruceFav 新闻-互联网 via 36氪 http://36kr.com November 2, 2017 at 11:11AM

[wheezer256]

via Pocket

[matnel]

It would be so nice to see this mapped to academic outputs and assumptions in those papers. What should we as technology researchers learn from the difficulty to work in such hype research area?

[ralphmorgan-blog1]

Australian PM demands answers in ‘inexplicable’ killing of Justine Ruszczyk

(CNN)Australia's prime minister has demanded answers to the "inexplicable" killing of an Australian-American woman shot by police in Minneapolis.

"This is a shocking killing. It is inexplicable," Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull told Australian Channel 9's "Today" program Wednesday, in his first public comments since Justine Ruszczyk's death on Saturday.

"I mean, how can a woman out in the street in her pyjamas seeking assistance from the police be shot like that?" he said. "We are demanding answers, something clearly went tragically wrong."

Ruszczyk had called 911 to report a possible sexual assault near her home, her fianc, Don Damond, said Monday.

Two police officers responded, and one of them, Mohamed Noor, shot her in the abdomen, killing her, according to police and an autopsy report.

Police have not explained how the shooting happened, leaving friends, family -- and now the Australian government -- demanding answers.

How Justine Ruszczyk's friend heard of her death

Vigil

Australian friends and family gathered on a beach near Ruszczyk's childhood home to honor the 40-year-old yoga teacher and spiritual healer in a silent vigil at dawn on Wednesday.

Around 200 friends and family gathered on Freshwater Beach in the northern Sydney suburbs as the sun rose, holding candles in silent memory of the Sydney native, according to CNN affiliate Seven News.

At 7 a.m. local time (5 p.m. ET), mourners silently laid her favorite pink flowers into the swell in a low key ceremony led by her father, John Ruszczyk, Australian media reported.

Members of community where she grew up, including former school friends, ex-colleagues and their families, attended the vigil. The community is still coming to terms with her unexpected death on the other side of the world.

Questions asked

In a press conference held by Minneapolis Mayor Betsy Hodges, several Australian journalists probed officials about the experience and training of the officers involved, as well as deeper questions about the country's gun and law enforcement cultures.

Mayor: I wish officer would speak

Who is police officer who fired shot?

What we know and don't know

Woman killed was to marry next month

Seven News reporter Ashlee Mullany demanded to know why Ruszczyk's family in Australia was being kept in the dark as to the progress of the investigation.

Hodges said that the victim's father and brother would be informed when the independent body investigating the shooting had any information that it was able to release.

Another reporter asked why two relatively inexperienced officers were responding to the call, and questioned the effectiveness of their training.

"Why do you have a law and order culture in this city where you have two rookie youngsters arrive in a patrol car late at night, with guns they don't seem to know how to use?" asked Paul McGeough, chief foreign correspondent of the Sydney Morning Herald, one of the country's largest-circulation dailies and the hometown paper of Ruszczyk before she moved to the US.

Mayor: Can't compel officer to make statement

Hodges admitted that the question spoke to the wider culture of policing in the US.

"We are in a country where people have guns but... these were two fully trained police officers," she said.

"What I can say is that, even before we had an officer-involved shooting a couple of years ago, even before that, we as a city were doing everything we could to put a foundation of 21st century policing in place."

In his televised interview, Turnbull said that Australian Consul-General Michael Wood, based in Chicago, is demanding answers of the Minneapolis city government.

"We are providing all the support we can, but this is... it seems inexplicable, but note, there will be some answers given in due course.

"At this point, it is a tragic loss, this young Australian woman and again, our hearts go out to her family with sorrow and with condolence and with love."

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