#margin of error

[a-v-j]

is all the Margin of Error comic finished?

NOPE!

[harriswalz4usabybr]

Harris-Walz Campaign Update!

53 days ago the Harris-Walz campaign kicked off in Maine and we've been working diligently to meet with Americans across our country, answering questions, communicating policies, and working to win every voter's confidence. The campaign has officially visited 45 states, the District of Columbia, and all 5 territories. We maintain our commitment to visiting all 50 states and will swing through the remaining states in the coming days.

We are happy to know that this strategy is also seeing positive results in polling numbers, while not all movement in the polls has been in our directions, there are traditionally deep red states that are seeing movement that was not expected. Using multiple polls, we've been able to establish a map that speaks to the work we've been putting in and that we view as more and more likely. However, as the country learned in 2016, polls are not the end all, be all in predicting a winner.

We cannot be fooled into complacency. The Harris-Walz administration remains the underdog in the 2024 presidential race and we must remain steadfast in bring more independents and republicans into our fold, while also deepening our support in key demographics. White college voters are a growing base with us, which we believe is due to common sense policy on our side, and divisive rhetoric coming from our opponents campaign.

We will continue to fight on the campaign trail every day for the trust of the American people and their vote for our ticket and democrats down the ballot. We look forward to campaigning and for Americans to have their voices heard in 28 days from now, on Election Day!

~BR~

[quillsword]

Is Harris Going to Win?

Probably not. We won’t know until all those votes get counted. So VOTE! You are one of those ‘give us the details’ people, aren’t you? Fine, let’s break the race down so far: Polls Real Clear Politics is our aggregator of choice. Habit is the main reason but you can call it ‘consistency’ if that sounds all sciency to you. We’re going to go fast through this first part so you may want to look…

[laughhardrunfastbekindsblog]

We've seen Tech with many expressions - happy, thoughtful, calculating, curious, determined, uncertain, exasperated, sad, awed, concerned, even angry - but I think this scene, when Tech's plan involved the Marauder being impounded and Hunter informs Tech that Omega is on the ship, is the one and only time we see him with "OOPS" face.

[ms0milk]

thinking about mithrun dunmeshi who could incapacitate most opponents in hand-to-hand (update: he’s a trained knife-fighter!) but chooses to use extremely fastidious teleportation magic without blinking at how easy it would be to accidentally blow himself or everyone involved, friend or foe, all the way up

(and finding something in all of his lackthereof, to smile about here which only ever happens one more time SPARE me SPEAR me anything love this guy forever)

[pianokantzart]

I’m going to level with you chat I don’t know which I’d prefer

[fingolfinwiththesteelchair]

i'm so gullible i see literally any redhead covered in blood and i'm immediately like 👀 Maedhros? 👀👀 my king Maedhros? my love Maedhros?? and i'm only right like. 70% of the time. what do you mean there's other bloodsoaked redheads who allowed this

[momo-t-daye]

One of those basic rules of improv say you have to say "Yes and-" rather than an outright contradiction, right? Sometimes you just have to commit to the bit even if your partner in crime makes things too dang complicated (so much for flying under the radar and being unmemorable- that nurse is going to be telling stories for weeks!). Of course, it is one thing to claim a child as part of an act and quite another to let such a claim slip out in a moment of guileless yelling at the co-god-parent (previous); no number of denials can take back such an admission.

So, are werewolves undead? I like to think that Remus had a muggle birth certificate in addition to whatever records the wizarding world might utilize- but post-bite his protective parents decided that it would be safer if he no longer had a paper trail in the muggle world, keep him hidden from prying questions etc. Perhaps it was safer for Remus (or easier for his parents at least) to not exist in the muggle records as a child, but it would become very difficult to find a job outside of the magical world and bring up all sorts of awkward questions when, after a night of running around in the woods with a pack of werewolves that don't exactly trust him and sans his trousers, he gets his exhausted ass hit by a lorry and dragged off to a muggle hospital.

[chiqitadave]

okay people i gotta know -

if you do one very rarely dont say that you do it lol, i really wanna know how many people are using the tagging system

[harriswalz4usabybr]

Campaign Goal Met!

Vice President Kamala Harris launched a campaign just 73 days ago that promised Americans from all 50 states, the district, and 5 territories would have their voices heard by her campaign. She has officially crossed the finish line on that promise and she will not stop fight to hear from more Americans until the Election.

While we understand that polling is a flawed science and that we are 2 weeks out from the election, which is a long time in American politics, we are pleased with the map below that we are seeing. This tells us that Americans across the country have been receptive to the type of campaign that we are running and that we are seeing the return on our investment in hearing the voice of as many Americans as possible. Thank you for believing in us and the promise that was made to visit all 50 states, 5 territories, and the district. We are not done fighting, and the map below still has a lot of swing states indicated. Please make sure you make a plan to vote and check on those you know to make sure they have one as well.

During our campaign we have worked tirelessly to spread the platform of the Harris-Walz candidacy and the policies we hope to enact in the White House. However, we have made a concentrated commitment on helping down ballot races across the country. The map for the house continues to prove to be tough, but the math is still possible and some polls are still swinging certain congressional districts on a near-daily basis. Please make sure you have supported your congressional district, if you are financial able to do so, especially if you've maxed your contributions to the Harris-Walz campaign.

Lastly, do not forget to educate yourself on the ballot initiatives in your state and local levels. Many states are seeing some hard hitting ballot initiatives concerning the right to abortion, the legalization of marijuana, rank choice voting, and public school funding. These are all initiatives that our campaign support and we hope that you will help us fight the good fight for a better future for all Americans. We are not going back.

~BR~

[antichilde]

margin of error: part 5

satoru gojo x fem reader, 2.1k words mdni

in which gojo figures it out

contents: teaching assistant!gojo, student!reader, no curses, college au, slight age difference (gojo is 20, you are a couple years older), he falls first, no smut (for now)

notes: Oh my god so much retconning. Gojo’s date has a name now. It was getting ridiculous referring to her as ‘his date’ all the time so my dumb ass named her Hana, conveniently forgetting that there’s a JJK character named Hana. Now she’s Manami (aka Geto’s secretary from JJK 0) because I may or may not have a weakness for her. (image citation)

part one | part two | part three | part four | read on ao3

The ache in Gojo’s chest has yet to go away. At first he doesn’t mind it, but as time passes the feeling begins to grate on his nerves like an itch he can’t quite scratch. It’s worse when you’re around so he tries to keep his distance outside of tutoring you. 

He also tries to distract himself. That’s how he ends up nursing a cider in the corner of a Halloween party he doesn’t really feel like attending. It’s too loud, and though the room is dark there’s some kind of disco ball throwing fragments of sickly orange and purple light onto the walls, meaning that Gojo is stuck wearing his glasses all night. 

He eyes Geto from across the room, watching him chat with a couple of kids they’d gone to high school with. No, he’s not quite desperate enough to go join that conversation, though with how things are going it’s only a matter of time. And what about you? What are you doing tonight? Did you stay in and get takeout like you’d planned? That sounds pretty appealing right about now, much more so than standing here avoiding eye contact with people he knows. 

Okay, he thinks, finishing off the last of his drink. Enough of this. 

He can’t keep thinking about you; it defeats the whole purpose of going out. Heading for the kitchen, he takes the opportunity to scan the room for familiar faces. There are quite a few— after all, Gojo spends a lot of his nights this way, though he usually feels much more enthusiastic about it than he does now. Eventually his eyes find their way to a bored looking girl loitering by the kitchen counter. The same girl, in fact, whom he’d been with when you’d inadvertently crashed his date. 

“Manami!” he calls, and she looks up.

Her face clouds with several emotions as he draws nearer: surprise, confusion, and finally irritation. Well, that was to be expected, given that their last encounter hadn’t ended well. 

“Gojo.” She doesn’t sound particularly pleased to see him. “What are you doing here?”

“Good question,” he says with a grimace. “I’ll let you know when I figure out an answer. What about you?”

She shrugs, taking a sip of her White Claw. “My campus was dead tonight, so I figured I’d try my luck here.”

 “Doesn’t seem like you’re having much fun.”

“No,” she says, shaking her head. “I can’t say this is my idea of a good time.”

“Not much of a partygoer?”

“Parties are fine. It’s making small talk with a guy who ghosted me that I’m not a fan of.”

Gojo winces, rubbing the back of his neck. “Yeah, I probably deserve that.”

She finishes off the last of her drink. “Not probably. Definitely. Though I’ll admit that it’s nice to have someone to talk to. I don’t know anyone else here apart from Suguru.”

Pausing, Manami crushes her can and tosses it into the recycling bin. Gojo’s brows knit together as he frowns. 

“So you came here by yourself?” he asks. “I know it’s pretty safe on campus, but don’t you think that’s kind of risky?”

“Aw, you’re worried. That’s nice.” Her voice is saccharin but she’s clearly unimpressed. Reaching around him, she plucks a bottle of water from the plastic wrapped set on the counter. The lid cracks softly as she twists it, the sound barely audible over the music filtering in from the other room. “No, I didn’t come here alone. My roommate was with me, though I think she’s already gone home with someone.” 

“And are you planning on doing the same?”

“Maybe, but don’t get your hopes up,” she says, waving the question off. “I haven’t thought that far ahead… though if you keep groveling I might consider it. It’s not like I have anything better to do.”

 Don’t get your hopes up. Funny how he’s been hearing that so much lately. Even so, he’s pretty sure he knows where this interaction is going, and though he hadn’t planned on hooking up with anyone tonight it’s not like it was off the table altogether. Maybe this is what he needs.

pretty_blue_eyes: I’m heading out early

pretty_blue_eyes: You brought a key right?

suguroo: I have one. Everything ok?

pretty_blue_eyes: Yeah all good. I’m bringing someone home just a heads up

suguroo: Hmm

suguroo: Ok

pretty_blue_eyes: ??

suguroo: Dw about it. I’ll see you later

They end up back at his apartment tangled up on the couch. Manami’s body is draped over his own, his hands settled at her waist as he presses slow, lazy kisses along her jawline. He’s been saying all the right things, going through all the right motions, but it’s still not enough to keep his mind from wandering. Gojo knows she’s on to him well before she pulls back, planting a hand on either side of his shoulders and lifting herself just far enough to get a good look at him.

“Is everything okay?” he asks. He can’t make out much of her expression, not with the way her hair is falling around his face. It blocks most of the faint light filtering in through the windows.

“You tell me.”

Yeah, she definitely knows, but Gojo isn’t ready to drop his guard quite yet. 

“What do you mean?” he asks. Manami exhales in annoyance, sitting back on her heels. 

“I’m not an idiot, Gojo. I can tell you’re distracted. It’s that girl, isn’t it? The one from the restaurant?”

His mouth goes dry, and Manami’s expression falters when she realizes he isn’t going to reply. Without the curtain of her hair in the way Gojo has a front row seat to the hurt he’s caused; he doesn’t know why it bothers him so much to see the way her face falls. Honesty isn’t something that comes naturally to him, especially when there are potential consequences, but right now the idea of brushing aside her question makes him feel queasy. 

Still, it takes him a long moment to find his voice again. 

“Is it that obvious?”

“No,” she says, then pauses to reconsider. “Actually, yeah, now that I think about it.”

Squeezing his eyes shut, Gojo takes a deep breath to try and regulate himself. Manami’s position is threatening to give him pins and needles but that’s the last thing on his mind right now. 

“And what exactly is it…” He pauses, choosing his words carefully. “…What is it that you think is obvious?”

“It’s obvious that you like her. Really like her.”

Gojo can feel his pulse racing. He’s not ready to talk about this, not yet, but at the same time his head is filled with so many things he wants to say. 

Manami fiddles with the ends of her long hair, twisting the strands together. “I think I knew then too. When she came up to the table something about you changed. It was like… like you were taking notes in your head, and seeing that made me realize that your mind is always somewhere else when we’re together. I know we’ve never been serious, or exclusive, or anything like that. But in the moment I guess it hit me pretty hard.”

She stops, her eyes meeting Gojo’s when he finally opens them. This time she’s the one who looks away first.

“I shouldn’t have said those things. I’m not usually the kind of person who tears down other women but I took out my anger on her and that was fucked up. I’m sorry.”

The silence that stretches between them is awkward. Manami’s body tenses, her weight shifting as she struggles not to fidget, and though Gojo wishes he could mollify her with an ‘it’s fine, don’t worry about it’, she’d been honest with him. The least he can do is meet her halfway. 

“I owe you an apology as well. For ghosting you, and for using you as a way to distract myself from…”

He stops, unsure how to finish that sentence, but she understands anyway. 

“Thank you,” she says. “I needed to hear that. And I should probably get off of you now.”

Sliding off his lap without waiting for a response, she settles on the opposite side of the couch and pulls out her phone, presumably to text her ride home. Gojo sits up, wincing as the feeling returns to his legs, and though a long silence stretches between them he’s grateful that some of the tension has dissipated from the air. 

“You want to talk about it,” she says at last. It’s an observation, not a question, but even so Gojo nods in confirmation.

“Yeah.” He rakes a hand through his hair, sighing. “Yeah, I think I do. Would that be too weird?”

Manami shrugs, reaching for her purse. “I was the one who brought it up, so if it’s weird then I guess I’m equally to blame.”

Pulling out a compact mirror, she dabs at her smudged lip gloss. Gojo can feel there’s some around his mouth too, tasting it when he bites his lip in thought. Watermelon flavored, if he had to hazard a guess. 

“I don’t know,” he says, leaning forward to rest his elbows on his knees. “It’s not like it’s that serious. I only met her back in August, though I don’t know if that even counts since it took her a whole month to learn my name.” 

Manami clears her throat, trying and failing to stifle a laugh. He ignores her, though if he were in her position he’s sure he’d find it funny too. 

 “It’s just that she makes me so nervous, but I keep chasing the feeling anyway. I have no idea why.”

“Gojo.” 

The sound of his name snaps him out of his own head and he turns to look at Manami. “Yeah?”

“Have you never had a crush before?”

“I have,” he says, sounding more defensive than he means to. “I had one back in freshman year.”

…of high school. 

Gojo chooses to leave that piece of information out. He also decides to withhold the fact that it had been on Geto. That’s a story for another time and place.

“But I guess it has been awhile,” he admits. “I don’t remember it being this stressful.”

She snaps the compact shut and drops it into her bag, rummaging around for a moment before pulling out her lip gloss. 

“I dunno,” she says, her voice muffled as she purses her lips to apply a new coat. “It sure sounds like a crush to me. Getting flustered, butterflies, et cetera— that’s all pretty standard.”

He buries his face in his hands, trying to will away his blushes. Manami slips the strap of her purse over one shoulder as she prepares to get up.

“It’s not a bad thing, you know.” Her voice is softer than it had been, nice in a way he knows he doesn’t deserve. “It’s stressful, yeah, but there’s nothing wrong with letting yourself feel things sometimes.”

Getting to her feet, she looks down at him, and their eyes meet as he lifts his head. 

“I should go,” she says. “I hope things work out for you, Gojo.”

“Thanks. And thank you for listening. You were right, I needed to talk about it.”

She turns away and he stands to walk her to the door. Gojo’s ready to end the conversation there, but as Manami reaches for the door handle he realizes there’s one more thing he needs to ask. “Hey, you won’t mention this to anyone, right?” He avoids her gaze, focusing instead on his umbrella. It’s still leaning against the doorframe, untouched since the night he’d walked you home. “Nobody else knows.”

“If by ‘this’ you mean your crush, then don’t worry. I won’t say anything.” One corner of her mouth twitches up as she tries not to smile. “Though I doubt it’ll make much of a difference. I have a feeling you might actually be the last person to figure it out.”

Laughing at his noise of indignation, Manami turns away, zipping up her coat as she makes a beeline for the car idling outside. A gust of chilly autumn wind ruffles Gojo’s hair and he shuts the door quickly before any more heat can escape the apartment. Pulling out his phone, he logs into his messaging app to unblock Manami, but stops when he sees his texts with Suguru are still open.

pretty_blue_eyes: I’m bringing someone home just a heads up

suguroo: Hmm

suguroo: Ok

pretty_blue_eyes: ??

suguroo: Dw about it. I’ll see you later

He turns off his phone and slips it back into his pocket, leaning against the door and shutting his eyes. Yeah, Manami was right, wasn’t she? Gojo is definitely the last to know.

[mmelolabelle]

Thoughts and prayers for Thrawn who is unknowingly about to get himself involved in the worst game show ever, “You think Anakin Skywalker’s apprentice has you stressed out? Wait until you meet his kids!”💫

[tanadrin]

This might sound like a gotcha but I promise it's an honest question: do you think you're better at analyzing polls than Nate Silver? Or do you think he sees the same weirdness that you do but isn't talking about it for some reason?

The stuff you're saying sounds superficially plausible but my priors give him a lot more weight than you, especially without a specific case for why he might be getting it wrong.

I think some of the premises of this ask are weird. Bullet points for clarity.

You don’t need to be Nate Silver to look at a poll’s crosstabs and go “20% of African-Americans saying they will vote for Trump seems super unlikely.”

Nate Silver’s whole thing is modeling elections based on (in part) polls. This is a useful exercise. Even if polls are being weird, doing this may provide some nonzero amount of useful information.

While I couldn’t remotely do what Nate Silver does, Nate Silver’s job relies fundamentally on the assumption polls are an accurate metric to some extent. There are reasons to think, however, that this year they are unusually inaccurate (see point 1)

You didn’t need to be a particle physicist to doubt that the faster-than-light neutrinos result from a few years ago was in fact an error. As it turned out to be. Basic contextual knowledge like whether FTL particles are likely to be a thing—or how various American demographic groups historically vote—means you do not have to approach all subject-specific questions with total Pyrrhonian skepticism, even if you do not have expertise in them.

Lots of people who do this shit for a living *are* talking about the weirdness in the polls, including the new guy running 538, and Nate Cohn over at the NYT. Silver may be too, I haven’t been following him since he left 538.

They may be factoring in the weirdness to some extent in their own modeling, but this is risky! You don’t wanna engage in arbitrary “unskewing” like amateurs tried to do in 2020, and pollsters don’t always release their full data and methodology. So it’s hard to figure out exactly what’s going on.

Nonetheless we do know that poll response rates are at an all time low—much lower even than they were four years ago.

None of what I have posted about the polls and polling is original; these are all points people much smarter than me in this area have talked about and continue to debate. I know what arguments I find persuasive, but if you disagree, that’s cool. I don’t think we will have any solid answers until the election actually happens.

[sweatersexual]

Wait is this unique to Shallan or can any Radiant re-swear an oath they've already sworn and get the accompanying power-up effects? I think that would be useful for Kaladin to know

[cowboyabunga]

do people know Al Gore lost the election not because people voted third party but because the supreme court literally interfered and told florida they couldnt recount votes or do ppl just have that big of a hard on for any excuse to vote for kamala