#margin of error

[a-v-j]

is all the Margin of Error comic finished?

NOPE!

[harriswalz4usabybr]

Harris-Walz Campaign Update!

53 days ago the Harris-Walz campaign kicked off in Maine and we've been working diligently to meet with Americans across our country, answering questions, communicating policies, and working to win every voter's confidence. The campaign has officially visited 45 states, the District of Columbia, and all 5 territories. We maintain our commitment to visiting all 50 states and will swing through the remaining states in the coming days.

We are happy to know that this strategy is also seeing positive results in polling numbers, while not all movement in the polls has been in our directions, there are traditionally deep red states that are seeing movement that was not expected. Using multiple polls, we've been able to establish a map that speaks to the work we've been putting in and that we view as more and more likely. However, as the country learned in 2016, polls are not the end all, be all in predicting a winner.

We cannot be fooled into complacency. The Harris-Walz administration remains the underdog in the 2024 presidential race and we must remain steadfast in bring more independents and republicans into our fold, while also deepening our support in key demographics. White college voters are a growing base with us, which we believe is due to common sense policy on our side, and divisive rhetoric coming from our opponents campaign.

We will continue to fight on the campaign trail every day for the trust of the American people and their vote for our ticket and democrats down the ballot. We look forward to campaigning and for Americans to have their voices heard in 28 days from now, on Election Day!

~BR~

[ocelotrevs]

If I ever want to emphasise how certain something is, I say it's 103%.

The 3% is the margin of error. So I'm still 100% certain.

[quillsword]

Is Harris Going to Win?

Probably not. We won’t know until all those votes get counted. So VOTE! You are one of those ‘give us the details’ people, aren’t you? Fine, let’s break the race down so far: Polls Real Clear Politics is our aggregator of choice. Habit is the main reason but you can call it ‘consistency’ if that sounds all sciency to you. We’re going to go fast through this first part so you may want to look…

[inkskinned]

100,000 dollars is not a lot of money.

it is also a lot more money than i will ever have. my student loans make up half of that - they're coming back, i'm told, like we all bounced back recently. the other day while paying for gas to go to work, i overdrew my account without knowing it.

i sat in the car and looked at the charge and tried to do the math. where the fuck is the money even going? i don't live extravagantly. i live in a hole in the ground, in an apartment the size of a sneeze; covered in ants. yes, i wanted to live close to a population center. maybe that's my fault. i've downloaded the apps and i've spoken to the experts and i've cut back on excess. i can't help the pharmacy bills or the medical debt.

i have a good, well-paying job. when i googled it to see if i was getting a fair salary, i found out i'd be making "upper middle class" money. which doesn't make sense - is "upper middle class" now just "able to afford a one-bedroom without a roommate". when i was younger, upper-middle meant a nice big house and a backyard and vacations and not flinching about eating at a resturant.

i was talking to my friend who is a realtor. he said 100,000 dollars is extremely cheap for housing. he's not wrong. 100,000 dollars would change my life. 100,000 dollars also won't really buy you anything. it could get you out of debt, potentially, if you were lucky and had a certain amount of scholarships to tack onto your degree. you could pay off the car and then have enough left over for "spending" money. how fucking amazing. one vacation, maybe two if you're thrifty. and then - like magic - the money would evaporate into nothing. people would sigh and tell you see, you should have put it into savings! like "upper middle class" people can't afford to value "actually living" over squirrelling wealth. you should spend your life only in scarcity. like that is what made the rich people all their real "actually a lot of money".

100,000 dollars would literally set me free. it also would just set me back to "earning normally" instead of paying down debt into infinity. god, do you know how many of us just want that? that our first thought is we could stop scrambling and just be free of debt if we won the lottery? that we don't even necessarily need to stop working - we just wouldn't have to worry about failing or falling?

and. at the same time. 100,000 dollars is next to fucking nothing.

[laughhardrunfastbekindsblog]

We've seen Tech with many expressions - happy, thoughtful, calculating, curious, determined, uncertain, exasperated, sad, awed, concerned, even angry - but I think this scene, when Tech's plan involved the Marauder being impounded and Hunter informs Tech that Omega is on the ship, is the one and only time we see him with "OOPS" face.

[ms0milk]

thinking about mithrun dunmeshi who could incapacitate most opponents in hand-to-hand (update: he’s a trained knife-fighter!) but chooses to use extremely fastidious teleportation magic without blinking at how easy it would be to accidentally blow himself or everyone involved, friend or foe, all the way up

(and finding something in all of his lackthereof, to smile about here which only ever happens one more time SPARE me SPEAR me anything love this guy forever)

[fingolfinwiththesteelchair]

i'm so gullible i see literally any redhead covered in blood and i'm immediately like 👀 Maedhros? 👀👀 my king Maedhros? my love Maedhros?? and i'm only right like. 70% of the time. what do you mean there's other bloodsoaked redheads who allowed this

[momo-t-daye]

One of those basic rules of improv say you have to say "Yes and-" rather than an outright contradiction, right? Sometimes you just have to commit to the bit even if your partner in crime makes things too dang complicated (so much for flying under the radar and being unmemorable- that nurse is going to be telling stories for weeks!). Of course, it is one thing to claim a child as part of an act and quite another to let such a claim slip out in a moment of guileless yelling at the co-god-parent (previous); no number of denials can take back such an admission.

So, are werewolves undead? I like to think that Remus had a muggle birth certificate in addition to whatever records the wizarding world might utilize- but post-bite his protective parents decided that it would be safer if he no longer had a paper trail in the muggle world, keep him hidden from prying questions etc. Perhaps it was safer for Remus (or easier for his parents at least) to not exist in the muggle records as a child, but it would become very difficult to find a job outside of the magical world and bring up all sorts of awkward questions when, after a night of running around in the woods with a pack of werewolves that don't exactly trust him and sans his trousers, he gets his exhausted ass hit by a lorry and dragged off to a muggle hospital.

[chiqitadave]

okay people i gotta know -

if you do one very rarely dont say that you do it lol, i really wanna know how many people are using the tagging system

[mmelolabelle]

Thoughts and prayers for Thrawn who is unknowingly about to get himself involved in the worst game show ever, “You think Anakin Skywalker’s apprentice has you stressed out? Wait until you meet his kids!”💫

[harriswalz4usabybr]

Campaign Goal Met!

Vice President Kamala Harris launched a campaign just 73 days ago that promised Americans from all 50 states, the district, and 5 territories would have their voices heard by her campaign. She has officially crossed the finish line on that promise and she will not stop fight to hear from more Americans until the Election.

While we understand that polling is a flawed science and that we are 2 weeks out from the election, which is a long time in American politics, we are pleased with the map below that we are seeing. This tells us that Americans across the country have been receptive to the type of campaign that we are running and that we are seeing the return on our investment in hearing the voice of as many Americans as possible. Thank you for believing in us and the promise that was made to visit all 50 states, 5 territories, and the district. We are not done fighting, and the map below still has a lot of swing states indicated. Please make sure you make a plan to vote and check on those you know to make sure they have one as well.

During our campaign we have worked tirelessly to spread the platform of the Harris-Walz candidacy and the policies we hope to enact in the White House. However, we have made a concentrated commitment on helping down ballot races across the country. The map for the house continues to prove to be tough, but the math is still possible and some polls are still swinging certain congressional districts on a near-daily basis. Please make sure you have supported your congressional district, if you are financial able to do so, especially if you've maxed your contributions to the Harris-Walz campaign.

Lastly, do not forget to educate yourself on the ballot initiatives in your state and local levels. Many states are seeing some hard hitting ballot initiatives concerning the right to abortion, the legalization of marijuana, rank choice voting, and public school funding. These are all initiatives that our campaign support and we hope that you will help us fight the good fight for a better future for all Americans. We are not going back.

~BR~

[tanadrin]

This might sound like a gotcha but I promise it's an honest question: do you think you're better at analyzing polls than Nate Silver? Or do you think he sees the same weirdness that you do but isn't talking about it for some reason?

The stuff you're saying sounds superficially plausible but my priors give him a lot more weight than you, especially without a specific case for why he might be getting it wrong.

I think some of the premises of this ask are weird. Bullet points for clarity.

You don’t need to be Nate Silver to look at a poll’s crosstabs and go “20% of African-Americans saying they will vote for Trump seems super unlikely.”

Nate Silver’s whole thing is modeling elections based on (in part) polls. This is a useful exercise. Even if polls are being weird, doing this may provide some nonzero amount of useful information.

While I couldn’t remotely do what Nate Silver does, Nate Silver’s job relies fundamentally on the assumption polls are an accurate metric to some extent. There are reasons to think, however, that this year they are unusually inaccurate (see point 1)

You didn’t need to be a particle physicist to doubt that the faster-than-light neutrinos result from a few years ago was in fact an error. As it turned out to be. Basic contextual knowledge like whether FTL particles are likely to be a thing—or how various American demographic groups historically vote—means you do not have to approach all subject-specific questions with total Pyrrhonian skepticism, even if you do not have expertise in them.

Lots of people who do this shit for a living *are* talking about the weirdness in the polls, including the new guy running 538, and Nate Cohn over at the NYT. Silver may be too, I haven’t been following him since he left 538.

They may be factoring in the weirdness to some extent in their own modeling, but this is risky! You don’t wanna engage in arbitrary “unskewing” like amateurs tried to do in 2020, and pollsters don’t always release their full data and methodology. So it’s hard to figure out exactly what’s going on.

Nonetheless we do know that poll response rates are at an all time low—much lower even than they were four years ago.

None of what I have posted about the polls and polling is original; these are all points people much smarter than me in this area have talked about and continue to debate. I know what arguments I find persuasive, but if you disagree, that’s cool. I don’t think we will have any solid answers until the election actually happens.

[antichilde]

margin of error: part 2

satoru gojo x fem reader, 2.8k words mdni

in which gojo makes some progress…?

contents: student teacher!gojo, student reader, no curses, college au, slight age difference (gojo is 20, you are a couple years older), he falls first, no smut (for now)

notes: here we go again. as always comments/asks are appreciated. (image citation)

part one | part three | read on ao3 | read on wattpad

Gojo’s pleasantly surprised when you’re the one to initiate the next conversation.

He looks up from his work and spots you hovering by the door to the study room where office hours are set to take place. It’s been a slow day, though to be honest it’s always a slow day when it comes to office hours. Usually people don’t need much help with an intro level course, especially not this early in the school year.

“Is Shoko here?” you ask, hugging your bag to your chest as you look around.

“Just me today. Can I help you with something?”

After carefully weighing your options, you step forwards into the room. “I was going to ask her to go over the stuff from class this week. We usually run through Yaga’s powerpoints.”

Nodding, Gojo opens his laptop and pulls Canvas up. You take a seat across from him, still a little reluctant, eyeing him with what might be dislike but is more likely distrust.

“Just this week’s stuff?” he asks, glancing up at you.

“Mm-hm.”

It’s not a lot of material, nor is it anything particularly challenging, and as Gojo reviews it with you he wonders if this is just some ploy to get closer to Shoko. She is pretty, and although Geto had said you like guys that doesn’t rule out the possibility that you’re into women as well. Besides, there’s no way you’d really need to go through such basic stuff, right? Not when you’d just been taught it the day before.

Your concentration suggests otherwise. He’s surprised by how seriously you take his explanations, jotting down notes and stopping him in several places to ask more questions. By the time he finishes, you seem to have a much firmer grasp on the material.

“Thank you,” you say, putting away your things. “That was helpful.”

He frowns. “You sound surprised.”

“I am, but you’re actually a pretty good teacher.”

The praise catches him off guard, hidden beneath a tone that suggests indifference. His brows furrow for a moment as he tries to get a read on you, though he schools his expression quickly.

“Well, I’m glad to hear that,” he replies, deciding to take your words at face value. “Shoko’s pre-med track is picking up, so she’s just going to be helping with labs outside of class.”

“Yeah, she told me. I didn’t realize it would happen so soon though.” Biting your lip, you take a moment to think. “Is it okay if I stop in after the next lecture?”

“Of course,” Gojo says, already drafting a victorious text to Geto in his head. Nothing too smug, just something along the lines of ‘I’m totally her type she wants me so bad.’ Because that’s gotta be what you’re thinking, right? Asking to come back again so soon?

Getting to your feet, you scoop up your notebook and tuck it under your arm. “Thanks. I’ll see you in class, Gojo.”

You disappear into the hall, shutting the door behind you with a soft click. He sits back, already dissecting the encounter in his mind. It seems that you praise of his teaching abilities had been genuine after all. Definitely progress, not to mention you’d remembered his name this time.

The days grow shorter as October wears on. Gojo’s own school work begins to pick up, though of course most of it poses little difficulty for him. There’s only one class that he thinks might cause problems down the line, and that’s Creative Writing.

“How the hell did you land in Creative Writing?” Geto asks, pouring boiling water into his teacup. “That doesn’t exactly fit your M.O.”

Gojo groans, resting his cheek on the kitchen counter. “It was a last minute edition. I forgot we’re required to take a language arts class, and I’m not going to have time to do it next year.”

Setting down the kettle, Geto leans back against the kitchen cabinets. “I think it’ll be good for you. What’s on the syllabus?”

“Poetry,” Gojo spits, managing to squeeze several cobras worth of venom into that single word. “Who thought having a well-rounded education was a good idea?”

“Not me, that’s for sure. I’ve got a mandatory life sciences class coming up.” Geto pauses, leaning forwards to put himself in Gojo’s line of sight. “But who knows, maybe you’ll be my TA. Just don’t flirt with me too much, I hear you’re quite the distraction.”

Peeking out from beneath the curtain of his bangs, Gojo smiles. “So she said I’m distracting?”

“I think her exact words were ‘pain in the ass,’ but yeah, something along those lines.”

He goes back to sulking, his skin still pressed against the cool stone of the countertop. When he speaks, his voice is muffled.

“Did she really say that about me?”

Shaking his head, Geto smiles faintly as he straightens up. “No, I’m just messing with you. She did tell me that you’ve been helping her with her work though.”

So you’d talked to Geto about him, and by the sound of it you’d had positive things to say. That’s good to know, especially given how impossible it is to read you. Even after meeting a couple more times, Gojo has no idea what’s going on in your head.

“Do you think she’ll show next week?” he asks.

“At the party? Could go either way. I invited her, but she hasn’t gotten back to me yet. It’s hard to pin her down about that kind of thing.”

“I’ll keep that in mind,” Gojo says, sounding thoughtful. “In case she ever asks me to pin her down.”

He laughs at Geto’s irritated expression. “C’mon, you know I’m kidding.”

“No you’re not.”

“No, I’m not,” he concedes. “But I mostly said it to annoy you.”

Geto checks the time on his phone, pushing off of the cabinets and returning to his neglected mug of tea. Fishing out the bag, he tosses it into the compost.

“You’re not really going through with this, are you?” he asks, taking a sip and wincing as he burns his tongue.

“With what?”

“With the whole ‘I can make her fall for me’ bit. It’s kind of messed up.”

Leaning back, Gojo crosses his arms. He’s pulled this kind of thing before, winning hearts just for the hell of it, and though Geto has never exactly approved, this is the first time he’s said anything outright.

“Are you sure you don’t have feelings for her?” he asks.

Geto sighs, raking his free hand through his hair and pushing it out of his eyes. “I told you it’s not like that. Is it really so hard to believe that I care about my friend’s wellbeing?”

“No, I guess not, though I don’t understand what you’re so upset about. She’s an adult who can take care of herself, right? That’s what you said last time.”

Geto’s phone buzzes before he can answer. He scoops it up from the counter, unlocking it. “Utahime says she’s on her way to drop off drinks for the party.”

The phone vibrates again as another text arrives.

“…And that she’s going to start charging a service fee if we keep asking her to get us alcohol.”

“That seems like a pretty empty threat,” Gojo says, grateful for the change of subject. “I doubt we’ll throw any more parties before I turn twenty-one.”

“God, I hope not. I’d like to get at least some of our security deposit back.”

Shoving his phone into his pocket, Geto sets his tea on the counter and turns away. “I’m going to meet her outside. I’ll text you if we need your help carrying anything.”

“Okay, just let me know!” Gojo calls after him, reaching for his phone. It’s muted before Geto’s even had time to shut the door.

Gojo bounces his knee under the desk, neglecting the poem that he’s supposed to be annotating. Creative Writing has been even more of a pain than he’d expected— something about it just doesn’t click with him. He sighs, frowning as his eyes drop to the paper.

To Gojo, pretty words are a means to an end. They’re good when he wants something, but when it comes to writing he can’t see much value in them. Why use something in a hundred words when one will do? And why curate those hundred words when they’re not even necessary in the first place?

“You look unhappy.”

He jumps at the sound of your voice, looking up to see you standing in the doorway.

“I’m fine,” he says with a smile, shoving the paper under his computer and safely out of sight. “Just doing some homework.”

Part of him wants you to push the subject, to question him about his behavior and ask if he’s alright. But you don’t. Instead you take your seat, pulling out your notebook and setting it on the table just like you always do.

“I was looking at the study guide for the next test, and I think I might’ve missed a couple things in class. Can we go over it?”

“Sure,” he says with a pang of disappointment. “Which parts are you having trouble with?”

All of them, it would seem. Gojo sneaks a couple covert glances at the clock, trying to work out whether or not you’re going to run overtime. Office hours technically end at 5:30, but he has the feeling that you’re going to need longer than that.

Shit. He’d planned to meet up with a girl at 6:00. At this rate there’s no way he’ll be able to make it.

“Is something wrong?” you ask, pausing to massage some life back into your cramped wrist. Even from across the table Gojo can see the indent in your middle finger, left there by the constant pressure of your pencil. His own hand twinges in sympathy.

“One sec, I just realized that I forgot to text Suguru back about something.”

He pulls out his phone, drafting a ‘sorry-I-won’t-be-able-to-make-it’ text. Out of the corner of his eye he sees you stretch, tracking the way your shirt catches on the underside of your bra. Suddenly bailing on his plans doesn’t seem like such a bad thing.

“I didn’t think I’d need so much help,” you say, checking the time and wincing when you see how late it is. “I can try and figure out the rest on my own if you need to go.”

Sending the message, Gojo shoves his phone into his pocket and turns his attention back to you. “Don’t worry about it. It’s not like I have anywhere I need to be.”

Hopefully you won’t catch him in a lie by following up with Geto, though maybe it wouldn’t be such a bad thing for you to know he’s prioritizing you over other women.

“Ready to keep going?” he asks, placing a hand on the study guide and spinning around it to face you. You nod, picking up your pencil.

It’s fully dark out by the time the two of you leave the library, a combination of the days growing shorter and the extra hour or so that you’d spent together.

“I’ll walk you home,” Gojo says, holding the door open.

You pause inside the foyer. “Try rephrasing that.”

“Um.” His mind races as he tries to figure out where he went wrong. “…Can I walk you home?”

He half expects you to flat out reject him, but you brush past, slinging your bag over one shoulder. “If you really want to.”

He leaves the door to shut itself, shivering at the sudden drop in temperature. It’s chilly out, a stiff breeze sweeping autumn leaves onto the sidewalk. They crunch under his shoes as he hurries to catch up.

“Thank you for staying late to help me,” you say, hugging yourself to keep your hands warm. Damn, he should’ve brought a jacket. What a missed opportunity— you’d look good draped in one of his coats.

“It’s no problem,” he says. “That’s what I’m here for.”

“Were you working on your Creative Writing homework when I came in?”

The question throws him for a moment, but of course you know about his stupid writing class. He’ll have to ask Suguru about what other information he’s spilled to his advisory chat.

“Yeah. I’m supposed to annotate a poem, but it’s really not my forté.”

“I thought you were good at everything.”

He huffs out a sigh, the cold condensing his breath into a little cloud. “I am, but that doesn’t mean I like everything.”

It’s a long moment before you reply. The wind tosses around the branches overhead, filling up the silence between you. Somewhere in the distance a siren wails.

“Are you doing anything later tonight?” you ask.

Folding his arms behind his head, Gojo spins to face you, walking backwards like a campus tour guide. “Is that your way of asking me out?”

You frown. “What? No. I was just trying to make conversation.”

“Aw, that’s a shame. I would’ve said yes.”

Skirting around a pile of leaves, you readjust your bag, moving it to your other shoulder. “I know you would have. You’re not very subtle, Gojo.”

“What do you mean?” he asks, dropping his arms back to his sides.

You narrow your eyes. “Don’t be coy. You’ve been hitting on me for weeks.”

So you’re aware of it then.

Logically, he’d known that you can’t be that oblivious, but some part of him had been holding out hope that maybe you are. Because the other possibility is that you don’t react because you’re genuinely not affected by him, and that’s uncharted territory. Everyone likes Gojo. Even people who don’t know they like Gojo like Gojo.

Still, he can work with this. The fact that you brought it up might actually make things easier.

“I guess you’ve figured me out, so there’s no point in hiding it.” He pushes his glasses up his forehead, making a show of mustering up his courage. “I really like you, and I want to get to know you better.”

You look past him, focusing on something else. “You’re going to trip on that stick if you keep walking backwards.”

“You’d catch me though, right?”

“Probably not.”

Sighing, he turns to face the path. The stick is there just as you said it would be, and he nearly trips on it anyway.

“Aren’t you going to say you like me too?” he asks once he’s regained his composure.

“Wasn’t planning on it.” You stop to grab the stick, tossing it onto the grass. It lands with a crunch in a drift of leaves. “But it doesn’t really matter either way.”

“It does to me. You’re not even going to give me a chance?”

You reflect on the question, then shake your head. “No. If you were telling the truth maybe I’d consider it, but I doubt you’re really interested in me.”

He frowns. “That’s a little harsh— you should be more confident. Hasn’t anyone ever told you how beautiful you are?”

“Yes. They have. My self esteem isn’t the problem here. I just don’t trust you.”

It’s almost eerie the way you say it, completely devoid of emotion. Had they been delivered in any other way the words would sound accusatory, and yet somehow he can tell you’re not angry.

“But I’m telling the truth. I really do like you.” His gaze meets yours, earnest and pleading. The look is calculated of course, but he’s played this game enough times to know how to fake honesty.

You study him for a moment before turning away, exhaling in what he’s almost positive is a laugh. “Now I know you’re lying. Next time put your glasses on first, your eyes give you away.”

The two of you slow as you approach your dormitory. Your calmness is throwing him off; this isn’t how things are supposed to go. He slips his glasses back over his eyes as the streetlights become more frequent.

“So, what?” he asks, running a hand through his hair. “You think I’m telling you this because I have ulterior motives?”

“Something like that.” Stopping in front of the building, you turn to face him. “Not that I mind. Ulterior motives or not, you stayed late to help me study and I’m grateful for that. I can put up with some flirting if it means you’ll keep helping me, just don’t expect me to reciprocate.”

“And what if I’m being honest?”

“Then I’d tell you not to get your hopes up,” you say, starting up the steps. “Thanks for walking with me— I’ll see you around.”

Gojo waits a moment, watching as you scan your ID and pull open the door. He’s not sure whether or not to count your conversation as a win, still mulling it over as he sets off for his apartment. You’re definitely on to him, but at the same time you don’t seem to mind his advances. There’s only one thing that he’s 100% certain of: that he has a lot of questions for Suguru.

[cowboyabunga]

do people know Al Gore lost the election not because people voted third party but because the supreme court literally interfered and told florida they couldnt recount votes or do ppl just have that big of a hard on for any excuse to vote for kamala

[aelingalathyniusrailme]

I saw someone say that the reason they ship e/riel is because neither az or elain are fleshed out characters and they don’t want lucien and gwyn to suffer from their dumb fuckery

and you know what

that is the first e/riel take I could potentially get behind