#economic concerns

[quillsword]

Is Harris Going to Win?

Probably not. We won’t know until all those votes get counted. So VOTE! You are one of those ‘give us the details’ people, aren’t you? Fine, let’s break the race down so far: Polls Real Clear Politics is our aggregator of choice. Habit is the main reason but you can call it ‘consistency’ if that sounds all sciency to you. We’re going to go fast through this first part so you may want to look…

[marzipanandminutiae]

hey international followers

just in case you want a taste of precisely HOW fractured the US is we also just elected our first openly trans person to Congress (Sarah McBride, from Delaware) and five states enshrined abortion rights into their state constitutions, with Missouri overturning its previous ban

in the same election that gave us Cheeto Hitler II: Electric Boogaloo

[anghraine]

I'm trying to redirect my political thoughts from my fandom escape blog again, but I found something interesting enough that I thought I'd talk a little about it.

Occasionally I choose suffering (looking at the more granular 2024 exit poll breakdowns rather than the summaries that I mostly don't trust much at this point). Anyway, I did find something intriguing, if not particularly surprising, in the CNN exit polls, which were done in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin with a sample size of 22,914 voters.

(I mention the specific states forming the sample because this pretty notably excludes any blue states while including some reliably Republican ones.)

Anyway, most exit polls including CNN's let respondents identify their place on the US political spectrum: conservative, moderate, or liberal (reminder that "liberal" in US usage can be a pejorative for "less leftist than me" but also a shorthand for "radical leftist" but also for "anyone who doesn't seek a cishet white Christian ethnostate", but also can be a more neutral synonym for progressives and/or leftists and is often used that way, as here). So you can look at the election results for each of these ideological factions and what share of the overall sample size they represent.

The interesting thing: this "liberal" category accounted for very similar proportions to 2020 of the overall vote in the sample (24% in 2020, 23% in 2024—a difference well within the margin of error of exit polling). There is no need to explain liberals/leftists staying home in 2024: at least in terms of proportions of the overall electorate, they didn't. Just under 1/4 of voters in 2024 were liberals or leftists, just as in 2020.

Okay, if the most leftwards faction of the US political spectrum actually formed a similar proportion of the electorate, then who did they vote for?

Harris. In CNN's own exit polls from 2020, 89% of this faction voted for Biden, and (surprisingly!) a full 10% voted for Trump. God knows what motivated that 10% Trump share after four years of his hellscape of an administration at the height of COVID, but in any case, that support cratered in 2024. 91% of this group voted for Harris and only 4% for Trump. It's an estimate, but it looks like these very peculiar Trump voters had enough of him in 2024 and around half either voted third party this time or for Harris.

So which faction is Trump's victory coming from? Further consolidation of the far right?

In part, yes! 90% of conservatives voted for Trump in 2024, vs 85% in 2020—likely, some conservatives who voted third party or even for Biden in 2020 came "home" this year. However, conservative turnout was actually a little down in 2024, proportionally speaking: conservatives dropped from 38% of the sample in 2020 to 34% in 2024.

But there's one more major faction in all this: "moderates" or centrists. To be clear, we're talking about the US version of centrism, given that this is a US organization polling US voters about US politicians, not "Bernie would be center-right in Denmark" or whatever. This moderate faction jumped from 38% of the overall sample in 2020 to 42% in 2024, and they swung hard towards Trump, though Harris still won a plurality of them. In 2020, 64% of moderates voted for Biden vs 34% for Trump. In 2024, 57% of them voted for Harris vs 40% for Trump—that is, the Democratic lead among centrists dropped precipitously from +30 to +17.

Tl;dr—ideologically speaking, this data suggests that Trump owes his victory to gains among both right-wing and centrist voters rather than some faction of would-be leftists or progressives apathetically staying home or voting third-party or otherwise deserting Democrats (because they're insufficiently radical or for any other reason).

Oh, and if you're curious as to how this compares to CNN's 2016 exit polls, I also checked those! Harris's 84-point lead among the most leftwards faction is a significant improvement from HRC's 74-point lead in 2016. Trump also got 10% of that group in 2016, as in 2020, so it's this campaign—not Hillary's or Biden's—that managed to eat into whatever the hell is going on with that group.

Harris's +17 with moderates is actually a slight improvement on Hillary's +12 in 2016. Biden's jump to a +30 lead among centrists in 2020 represented either a backlash against Trump from centrists, or Biden's own rapport with that group, or some mysterious issue some of those voters had with both HRC and Harris (I wonder what it could be!!), or some combination thereof. Regardless, there are a lot of actual ideologically centrist voters in the USA and not just would-be leftists who haven't heard the good news of Marx yet. And Trump has an iron grip on the right wing at this point: he beat Hillary with conservatives by +65 in 2016, then beat Biden with an even larger margin of +71, then leapt to a 81-point lead over Harris with right-wing voters this year.

[juicebox72664]

Always

Knock knock knock.

“Osamu? You’ve been there for a while, you okay?” Came Chuuya’s concerned voice from the other side of the door.

Dazai knew if he didn’t respond Chuuya would assume he tried to kill himself.

So, doing his best—which was pretty damn good—to keep the shakiness out of his voice, he responds. “Yeah, sorry, had some trouble with the bandages.”

There was silence in the other side of the door, and then, “I can help.”

“No!” Dazai yells instantly, and he knows any chance he had at lying his way out of this won’t work anymore.

He was gonna try anyways.

He quickly opens a cabinet door and puts the pregnancy test in there, he’d tell Chuuya, but not right now; actually maybe he wouldn’t tell him at all.

“Osamu, I’m coming in.” Chuuya’s voice states, cutting straight through his thoughts.

Dazai quickly touches his face making sure he hadn’t cried at all, and then unlocks the door so his hotheaded husband doesn’t knock it down.

Chuuya’s eyes instantly trail over him, looking for any signs of injury, finding none he looks behind him at the bathroom; no blood or anything, and there weren’t any blades out.

“I think Chibi’s a worry wort.” Dazai says, putting on his mask to cover up the storm of emotions threatening to overwhelm him; and they would if Chuuya tried probing.

“Are you okay?” And of course he would.

Dazai felt like crying, because Chuuya wouldn’t look at him like that if he knew; he’d probably look at him with disgust.

Dazai brushed past him, making it seem like he wanted to sit down as he flops on the bed, laying on his back; but really he just didn’t want to look into Chuuya’s concerned eyes.

“Of course I’m okay.” He knows Chuuya won’t buy it, but he still tries.

Chuuya doesn’t say anything at first, just sits beside him in the bed. “You know you can tell me anything.” He remarks, taking Dazai’s hand in his.

For once Chuuya wasn’t wearing his gloves, and the cold metal of his ring was in stark contrast to the warmth of his palm.

“I know.” Dazai responds, cursing himself for the crack in his voice.

Chuuya squeezes his hand. “Then tell me what’s wrong.” He all but whispers, looking at Dazai with a love he didn’t deserve.

Dazai averts his gaze, and then, not feeling like it was enough, he covers his face with his arm that isn’t holding Chuuya’s hand. “I’m pregnant.” He admits quietly.

Chuuya doesn’t say anything, and Dazai’s too scared to look at his face.

Chuuya’s hand comes and removes his arm from his face, and much to Dazai’s surprise, there wasn’t disgust or anger, just love, and concern. “And you were scared to tell me?” He asks.

Asks as if he’d done something wrong.

Dazai shrugs, not knowing how to reply.

Not knowing how to put his emotions into words.

Chuuya presses a soft kiss to his forehead, “Are you okay?”

Dazai wanted to both laugh and cry, he was concerned about him, of course he was, he wasn’t even sure why he was so worried about Chuuya’s reaction anymore.

“I don’t know.” He admits, voice shaky.

Chuuya pulls him into a sitting position and holds him against him, running his fingers through his hair. “You can do whatever you want Osamu, I’ll make sure of it.”

Dazai felt his eyes fill with tears as he buries his face in Chuuya’s chest, why did he always have to know just what to say to bring him to tears?

“I don’t know what to do.” He sobs, clutching onto the gingers shirt desperately.

“Sh, that’s okay, you don’t have to decide right now, you can take as long as you want; I’ll be here.” He comforts softly.

“Promise?” He pleads.

“Isn’t that what our wedding vows were?” He asks with a chuckle. “I’m not going anywhere, and most certainly not because of this.”

“Even if I abort it?” He asks quietly.

“Even if you abort it.” He assures.

“What if I want to keep it?” He wonders, voice still shaky.

“Then you can keep it, and I’ll be right here.” Chuuya presses a kiss to the top of his head.

“I love you.” The brunette tells his husband, just wanting to hear it said back.

“I love you too, darling, always.” The shorter man tells him.

[enha-stars]

okay this has nothing to do with enha (i should shut up) but i have to tell SOMEONE. basically, this guy, a friend of a friend, has been hanging out with my friend group a lot more. he’s cool and funny and okay looking ig (lie) except, one of my friends is interested in him but he is not interested in her. as in, he makes it pretty obvious. he avoids being alone w her (by inviting others) and he often dodges questions about relationships. however…. today… after my midterm, we were all in the library and my friend asked him if he wanted to go with her to get food, and he respectfully declined. but then, after a bit, when i got up to get food, he offered to come with me. i’m not reading too much into it but my other friends have claimed that he’s more inclined towards me than my friend because he’s always the first to invite me and he genuinely has conversations with me. the issue is that this friend is very insecure when it comes to men and IF anything between me and this guy happens, she’s going to end my life probably

[mariocki]

The Long Good Friday (1980)

"Alan found him dying. He'd been nailed to the floor."

"When was this, then?"

"Well, it must've been just after you saw him and just before Alan saw him. Otherwise, you'd have noticed, wouldn't you? I mean, a geezer nailed to the floor. A man of your education would definitely have spotted that, wouldn't he?"

[thedreadvampy]

I guess a question I actually have is what would it actually look like to build communism/radical leftism in the imperial core?

I do believe (when I can) that we're living through a transition away from the imperial age, and that necessarily requires loss for people in Northern Europe and North America.

To be clear, that isn't an argument against it. In the imperial core there are things we are very very used to having which a) we aren't entitled to and b) cost a disproportionate amount to the rest of the world. and in a post-colonial future we could see a flattening of social and economic inequality (if we made it happen).

but I increasingly think there's a difficult tension in building liberation movements within the borders of countries which built and are at the heart of the current hegemon. And then at the same time, NOT building liberation movements within our own countries isn't really an option, both because a) we have to live now and letting ourselves continue to get fucked over by power is just pointless self-harm and b) because the internal collapse of these systems is part of the external collapse of the imperial order.

buuuuuut a lot of the current leftist movements in the imperial core are very much based on improving the lot specifically of people within the country and idk when/if that starts to run counter to a global restructure of power?

[jacknickelton]

So my classmate yesterday told me he believed that 9/11 is actually an inside job by the US government as an excuse to invade the Middle East for oil. And today he said he “preferred Trump” to win this election “just because”. When I point out that Trump is a convicted felon he then claimed that it’s actually just a ploy by his opponents to discredit him, as “he would’ve been arrested if all that was true”

Thank god we’re not American, but also fuck me for not being able to affect the election in any way

[thatscarletflycatcher]

Academically established reading of Wives and Daughters as a Darwinian manifesto my beloathed.

[rigginsstreet]

I feel like what I’m learning through all this election fall out and the polls etc is that the average American does not prioritize civil rights lmfao and that is uhhhh concerning

[veiledmonarch]

Gainfully employed white citizen of Australia using tumblr: DEATH TO ALL YANKS, THE ONLY SETTLER COLONY IN THE WORLD WITH A STABLE CURRENCY

[sskk-manifesto]

(๑•́ω•̀)

[tchaikovskaya]

people one trillion times smarter and more insightful than me have absolutely articulated this point in sure of it but. theres something very uncomfortable about the backlash against AI as it pertains to the arts and especially artists' work as commissions to create IP......

[mimiatmidnight]

Are you voting in the election this year

I have voted in every election I have ever been eligible for, and I will continue to do so until the day either I or elections themselves cease to exist, lol. Whichever comes first.

I understand and empathize with the people who won't, but for me, personally, that will never be the case. Without dredging up too much already played-out discourse, I have never been able to buy into the "lesser of two evils" argument, no matter the context, no matter how jaded or naive I've been. By its own definition, you are admitting one is worse than the other. Why on earth would I not take the opportunity to choose the lesser? And YES, of course, they should not be our only options. I can't wait to see the day this current electoral system is dismantled. And YES, of course, voting should not be the only work we do to reach our goals. Activism extends so so so much further than the voting booth. But for me, personally, it starts there.

Also: I would still feel this way no matter what, but on top of all that, I am from Miami. I live in not just a swing state (barely, I know lol, rip), but an extremely contentious swing COUNTY. I would never, ever risk abstaining from an election here. My brother is currently living in a deep blue state and he already told me he's abstaining, and I understand that. But me? ME? The artist formerly known as mimi-of-miami-dot-tumblr-dot-com? I am in that voting booth every single election as soon as the doors open.

[elftwink]

being actually so serious I thought I knew what inflation was and then someone explained to me the concept of "greedflation"/price gouging and ever since then I feel like I must be missing something because everyone's acting like those are those are different things like?????? "greedflation is when prices are raised even though supplies cost the same because it will generate more profit for the seller" ok "inflation is that also but instead of saying the seller did that we say the Market did and it was unavoidable!! but yes the seller is bringing in more profit as a result" like??? is something material actually different between inflation and greedflation or is it literally just a kind of framing device. bc if there is something material I am not comprehending it

[churchyardgrim]

is inflation?? not real?? i very much thought it was because of how monetary and fiscal policy work and it affects primarily lower-middle income people, because capitalism is fucked and of course it does

hghdfg so i am Not the best person to ask about this, bc i know just shy of Nothing about economics as a whole BUT. my understanding of the thing is this:

inflation does happen naturally (""naturally"") over time just bc of shifting relative values and amount of currency in circulation and the base states of supply and demand. however,

we have long since left those base states and natural (""natural"") economy behind and entered a world where companies can take a product that cost, say, $3 to produce and sold for $8, and instead produce it for $1 and sell it for $15, and claim "oops, that's just inflation" when it's just greed plain and simple.

again i am not even remotely educated about economics, so if you want a more detailed and nuanced understanding of these things you're on your own, but i can confidently say that the cost of groceries right now is absolutely a thing within human control, and if shit costs as much as it does then that's because someone, somewhere up the chain, wants it to.