#economic concerns

[trendynewsnow]

Crude Oil Prices Drop as Middle Eastern Tensions Ease

Crude Oil Prices Plummet Amid Easing Middle Eastern Tensions Crude oil prices experienced a significant drop of over 5% before slightly recovering during the Asian trading session on Monday. This decline followed reports indicating that Israel had refrained from targeting Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities in response to Iran’s ballistic missile strike on October 1. Iranian state media have…

[quillsword]

Is Harris Going to Win?

Probably not. We won’t know until all those votes get counted. So VOTE! You are one of those ‘give us the details’ people, aren’t you? Fine, let’s break the race down so far: Polls Real Clear Politics is our aggregator of choice. Habit is the main reason but you can call it ‘consistency’ if that sounds all sciency to you. We’re going to go fast through this first part so you may want to look…

[marzipanandminutiae]

hey international followers

just in case you want a taste of precisely HOW fractured the US is we also just elected our first openly trans person to Congress (Sarah McBride, from Delaware) and five states enshrined abortion rights into their state constitutions, with Missouri overturning its previous ban

in the same election that gave us Cheeto Hitler II: Electric Boogaloo

[anghraine]

I'm trying to redirect my political thoughts from my fandom escape blog again, but I found something interesting enough that I thought I'd talk a little about it.

Occasionally I choose suffering (looking at the more granular 2024 exit poll breakdowns rather than the summaries that I mostly don't trust much at this point). Anyway, I did find something intriguing, if not particularly surprising, in the CNN exit polls, which were done in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin with a sample size of 22,914 voters.

(I mention the specific states forming the sample because this pretty notably excludes any blue states while including some reliably Republican ones.)

Anyway, most exit polls including CNN's let respondents identify their place on the US political spectrum: conservative, moderate, or liberal (reminder that "liberal" in US usage can be a pejorative for "less leftist than me" but also a shorthand for "radical leftist" but also for "anyone who doesn't seek a cishet white Christian ethnostate", but also can be a more neutral synonym for progressives and/or leftists and is often used that way, as here). So you can look at the election results for each of these ideological factions and what share of the overall sample size they represent.

The interesting thing: this "liberal" category accounted for very similar proportions to 2020 of the overall vote in the sample (24% in 2020, 23% in 2024—a difference well within the margin of error of exit polling). There is no need to explain liberals/leftists staying home in 2024: at least in terms of proportions of the overall electorate, they didn't. Just under 1/4 of voters in 2024 were liberals or leftists, just as in 2020.

Okay, if the most leftwards faction of the US political spectrum actually formed a similar proportion of the electorate, then who did they vote for?

Harris. In CNN's own exit polls from 2020, 89% of this faction voted for Biden, and (surprisingly!) a full 10% voted for Trump. God knows what motivated that 10% Trump share after four years of his hellscape of an administration at the height of COVID, but in any case, that support cratered in 2024. 91% of this group voted for Harris and only 4% for Trump. It's an estimate, but it looks like these very peculiar Trump voters had enough of him in 2024 and around half either voted third party this time or for Harris.

So which faction is Trump's victory coming from? Further consolidation of the far right?

In part, yes! 90% of conservatives voted for Trump in 2024, vs 85% in 2020—likely, some conservatives who voted third party or even for Biden in 2020 came "home" this year. However, conservative turnout was actually a little down in 2024, proportionally speaking: conservatives dropped from 38% of the sample in 2020 to 34% in 2024.

But there's one more major faction in all this: "moderates" or centrists. To be clear, we're talking about the US version of centrism, given that this is a US organization polling US voters about US politicians, not "Bernie would be center-right in Denmark" or whatever. This moderate faction jumped from 38% of the overall sample in 2020 to 42% in 2024, and they swung hard towards Trump, though Harris still won a plurality of them. In 2020, 64% of moderates voted for Biden vs 34% for Trump. In 2024, 57% of them voted for Harris vs 40% for Trump—that is, the Democratic lead among centrists dropped precipitously from +30 to +17.

Tl;dr—ideologically speaking, this data suggests that Trump owes his victory to gains among both right-wing and centrist voters rather than some faction of would-be leftists or progressives apathetically staying home or voting third-party or otherwise deserting Democrats (because they're insufficiently radical or for any other reason).

Oh, and if you're curious as to how this compares to CNN's 2016 exit polls, I also checked those! Harris's 84-point lead among the most leftwards faction is a significant improvement from HRC's 74-point lead in 2016. Trump also got 10% of that group in 2016, as in 2020, so it's this campaign—not Hillary's or Biden's—that managed to eat into whatever the hell is going on with that group.

Harris's +17 with moderates is actually a slight improvement on Hillary's +12 in 2016. Biden's jump to a +30 lead among centrists in 2020 represented either a backlash against Trump from centrists, or Biden's own rapport with that group, or some mysterious issue some of those voters had with both HRC and Harris (I wonder what it could be!!), or some combination thereof. Regardless, there are a lot of actual ideologically centrist voters in the USA and not just would-be leftists who haven't heard the good news of Marx yet. And Trump has an iron grip on the right wing at this point: he beat Hillary with conservatives by +65 in 2016, then beat Biden with an even larger margin of +71, then leapt to a 81-point lead over Harris with right-wing voters this year.

[enha-stars]

okay this has nothing to do with enha (i should shut up) but i have to tell SOMEONE. basically, this guy, a friend of a friend, has been hanging out with my friend group a lot more. he’s cool and funny and okay looking ig (lie) except, one of my friends is interested in him but he is not interested in her. as in, he makes it pretty obvious. he avoids being alone w her (by inviting others) and he often dodges questions about relationships. however…. today… after my midterm, we were all in the library and my friend asked him if he wanted to go with her to get food, and he respectfully declined. but then, after a bit, when i got up to get food, he offered to come with me. i’m not reading too much into it but my other friends have claimed that he’s more inclined towards me than my friend because he’s always the first to invite me and he genuinely has conversations with me. the issue is that this friend is very insecure when it comes to men and IF anything between me and this guy happens, she’s going to end my life probably

[mariocki]

The Long Good Friday (1980)

"Alan found him dying. He'd been nailed to the floor."

"When was this, then?"

"Well, it must've been just after you saw him and just before Alan saw him. Otherwise, you'd have noticed, wouldn't you? I mean, a geezer nailed to the floor. A man of your education would definitely have spotted that, wouldn't he?"

[thedreadvampy]

I guess a question I actually have is what would it actually look like to build communism/radical leftism in the imperial core?

I do believe (when I can) that we're living through a transition away from the imperial age, and that necessarily requires loss for people in Northern Europe and North America.

To be clear, that isn't an argument against it. In the imperial core there are things we are very very used to having which a) we aren't entitled to and b) cost a disproportionate amount to the rest of the world. and in a post-colonial future we could see a flattening of social and economic inequality (if we made it happen).

but I increasingly think there's a difficult tension in building liberation movements within the borders of countries which built and are at the heart of the current hegemon. And then at the same time, NOT building liberation movements within our own countries isn't really an option, both because a) we have to live now and letting ourselves continue to get fucked over by power is just pointless self-harm and b) because the internal collapse of these systems is part of the external collapse of the imperial order.

buuuuuut a lot of the current leftist movements in the imperial core are very much based on improving the lot specifically of people within the country and idk when/if that starts to run counter to a global restructure of power?

[jacknickelton]

So my classmate yesterday told me he believed that 9/11 is actually an inside job by the US government as an excuse to invade the Middle East for oil. And today he said he “preferred Trump” to win this election “just because”. When I point out that Trump is a convicted felon he then claimed that it’s actually just a ploy by his opponents to discredit him, as “he would’ve been arrested if all that was true”

Thank god we’re not American, but also fuck me for not being able to affect the election in any way

[thatscarletflycatcher]

Academically established reading of Wives and Daughters as a Darwinian manifesto my beloathed.

[rigginsstreet]

I feel like what I’m learning through all this election fall out and the polls etc is that the average American does not prioritize civil rights lmfao and that is uhhhh concerning

[veiledmonarch]

Gainfully employed white citizen of Australia using tumblr: DEATH TO ALL YANKS, THE ONLY SETTLER COLONY IN THE WORLD WITH A STABLE CURRENCY

[trendynewsnow]

Voter Sentiments Influenced by Economic Concerns Ahead of Presidential Election

Voter Sentiments and Economic Concerns As the presidential election approaches, Bernadette Daywalt, a 69-year-old retiree, finds herself grappling with the decision of whom to support. Like many Americans, her choice is heavily influenced by economic factors. Alongside her 82-year-old sister, she has faced challenges in keeping pace with the escalating prices of groceries over the past few years,…

[doctor-fancy-pants]

That Researchin' Maritime Life

We've got a bit of downtime - there's a trawl going down to 5000m right now.

I've rotated and freshened up the sea cucumbers, packed away the echinoderms (starfish, sea cucumbers, sea urchins, brittle stars, feather stars and sea lilies), thrown a few buckets of seawater in the cold room (including the smaller pails seen below, I'm refining my holothurian rescue plans), and had a snack because This Machine, She Runs On Heavy Fuel.

This is actually a very comfortable ship to live on. Each cabin has a private ensuite, so you're not clambering down the bunk ladder and teetering out into the hall in search of the head in the middle of the night (I have been very spoilt and have only had one voyage like that). The mess has plenty of room at mealtimes. There are two lounges ("quiet" and "you're allowed to make noise and have informal meetings" respectively), and my favourite beanbags in the world.

There are, however, some drawbacks to marine research as a specialty (apart from the lack of job security, she says, as a short term contract taxonomist), and using a laboratory on a boat.

What drawbacks, you may ask.

Well, after my shift ends, I've been known to totter wearily into an online chat with mates and just drop random observations (you may note a somewhat laissez-faire attitude to punctuation).

For example:

you know it's amazing, you can be totally fine working in the dirty wet lab and you'll leave for five minutes and it's like your olfactory filters completely reset and then you get back down there and the nose is shouting at the brain "BOY HOWDY IT SURE DO SMELL LIKE FISHY PRAWNS IN HERE HUH JUST GOTTA SOAK IN THAT BRINY AMBIENCE"

summation: the science smells bad.

related outcome: the scientist also smells bad.

Yuuup, the smell is a whole freaking vibe. We can't dump too much seawater down the sinks that go into the grey water holding tank, we can't open the chute in the lab if there's an operation in progress (i.e. a trawl, a tow video, a Baited Remote Underwater Video, a fish trap) (which has been the case more often than not), and the same restriction is in place for simply tipping buckets over the side

That means that buckets of filthy seawater, sea cucumber guts, discarded excess critters, banged-up prawns and so on... just have to sit in the lab for a bit.

I've got a very sensitive nose. I have never been good at filtering out unpleasant smells, and yet somehow I kind of adapt to the lab odours... until I head up to the mess, and back down again.

(side note: we do actually clean the lab very thoroughly between trawls, and it does not smell all the time! It's more when you have to take a break in the middle of processing and then come back to it.)

What I do not adapt to is how bad I smell. By the end of the day, if I've been racing around in my coveralls, especially if I've been carrying heavy things, I will stink to high heaven.

(I will be quite self-conscious standing next to anyone.)

That shower is... so good.

But showering every day raises an issue. It's not what I normally do. Now, I realise there are some people who will find that horrifying (and most of them are from the US for some reason), but every second day, or when I need to wash my hair, or after a workout or, on a hot day? Yeah, that shower is good.

Every day? My poor skin is dryer than shoe leather, and I use a very gentle shower gel.

Shower Discord thoughts:

have been speculating on how one transitions from "I own body moisturiser but only occasionally remember to use it" as a terrestrial organism, to "I am pretty sure I could start a black market trade by subdividing this half-tube of Body Shop Hemp Hand Cream into small aliquots" as a person who is

1) at sea (the briny sea! The salty [drying] air!)

2) when not outdoors in the salty air, indoors in the drying A/C

3) regularly shoving one's hands into 100% ethanol and... usually... nearly always... wearing gloves while doing so

I mean this cream is the good shit

like basically liquid gold

which... could also be distributed in aliquots

okay. have decided: will not trade Body Shop Hemp Hand Cream for less than the equivalent volume of liquid gold

On later reflection, while I continue to believe that this asking price is fair, I may be pricing myself out of the market, if for no other reason than the simple lack of gold on board the vessel, regardless of phase.

I have decided that it doesn't have to be liquid. Melting gold on a moving vessel far off the continental shelf is an untenable safety risk. It just means that we will have to try to match the quantities by weight.

And that means using the scales in the clean wet lab, because the balances in our lab are not up to that sort of task.

And that means that I have definitely thought about this far too much, and I should go do something else (mainly clean my teeth and get ready for bed - need to get the energy for tomorrow's science-ing!).

We're still doing a fair bit of transiting and deeper sites, so I plan to try and knock out some taxonomic work on the few crinoids that have made it into the lab, and maybe set aside some time for the Sea Cucumber Salon.

Cukes gotta get their glamour shots, dammit.

[sskk-manifesto]

(๑•́ω•̀)

[melancholia-ennui]

Every time I see people worrying about students using chatGPT to cheat assignments I despair a little more at the state of modern academia because like.

Chat GPT essays suck. They're so bad. They get basic facts wrong, they make up references that don't exist, they jump from one argument to the next without any throughline or coherence or objective. They are very bad essays.

So if your students are "coasting" through your course using chatGPT, if you're not failing every essay that chatGPT produces, that is a real indictment of how abysmally low the standards on that course are.

Like yeah, I get it, the idea that there could be nurses and engineers and other people in specialist roles where human lives are on the line who didn't engage with their training at all because they used generative AI to write their essays is really scary but like. If they were able to pass their courses using chatGPT that just shows that those courses were also going to pass someone who made shit up, had no real grasp of the subject matter, and failed to critically engage with the set material at all and at that point it's just like. I mean is machine assisted incompetence really that much scarier than entirely human incompetence? Surely the problem here is that incompetence is being let through at all???

[tchaikovskaya]

people one trillion times smarter and more insightful than me have absolutely articulated this point in sure of it but. theres something very uncomfortable about the backlash against AI as it pertains to the arts and especially artists' work as commissions to create IP......