#let tim do engagements 2024
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“Also playing a key role in the new reign, in her customary understated way, will be the Princess Royal. One look at the official Coronation photographs is proof of that. While the King has the Queen on his left, it is his sister who stands at his right-hand side. One of the three members of the family who regularly performs investitures, along with the King and the Prince of Wales, the Princess has also now been added to the roster of senior royal mourners. It means that she can attend important world funerals if the Prince of Wales is unable to attend (as happened after the death of ex-King Constantine of the Hellenes in January 2023).
Even more understated is her husband, Vice Admiral Sir Tim Laurence. His distinguished Royal Navy career has been followed by multiple leadership roles in institutions ranging from the Commonwealth War Graves Commission to private sector bodies like the Major Projects Association, often during periods of change. As the National Trust found itself caught up in the full force of the ‘culture wars’ through its handling of issues such as slavery and the sexuality of former stately homeowners, it’s main rival, English Heritage, did not. It, too, looks after hundreds of castles, monuments and swathes of countryside plus all the blue plaques on important buildings. In addition, it was also undergoing a fundamental transformation from government agency to national charity. As its two-term chairman, Laurence was at the helm throughout what could have been a turbulent - yet it proved not to be. While he has no official royal role, and has never sought one, he is widely respected across the Royal Household as a wise sounding board and the proverbial ‘safe pair of hands’. In September 2023, with a minimum of fanfare, he received his first patronage when he was appointed patron of the International Maritime Rescue Federation. With the Princess now enjoying an enhanced role, life is unlikely to slow down for this low-key, non-royal, royal consort.”
‘Charles III: New King. New Court. The Inside Story’ by Robert Hardman (2024).
#*inhales*#MAKE TIM A WORKING ROYAL#you know you want to charlie#he has one (1) whole patronage now#he deserves more#princess anne#princess royal#tim laurence#timothy laurence#british royal family#brf#anned i quote#let tim do engagements 2024
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Who is Tim Walz?
Kamala Harris has apparently picked Tim Walz as her running mate. He seems good, based on his record. He's also responsible for the widely spreading "Republicans are weird" meme I've seen quite a lot of.
He has a good record. Just like I did for Kamala Harris in a post that has become quite popular, I will do a simple review of things I like from Tim Walz' political history. Again, as with Harris, this is just from his Wikipedia page. Let's go!
House of Representatives
Opposed increasing troop numbers in Iraq
Co-sponsored a bill to raise Minnesota's minimum wage
Voted for stem cell research
Voted to allow Medicare to negotiate pharmaceutical prices
Voted against the act to Prohibit Federally Funded Abortion Services
Voted to advance the ACA
Has received a 100% rating from many progressive organizations like Planned Parenthood and the ACLU
Was a member of several caucuses, including the LGBT Equality Caucus
Governor of Minnesota
Signed into law police reforms after the murder of George Floyd
Had Minnesota join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, meaning that all of the state's electors will vote for whichever candidate wins the popular vote nation-wide.
Under his governance, Minnesota passed laws for requiring paid leave, banning non-compete agreements, cannabis legalization, abortion rights, universal free school meals,
Political stances
Pro cannabis
Against bailout bills that loan taxpayer money to large banks and auto manufacturers
Was a former teacher for many years, and is very pro-education and supporting public schools. He is against merit pay for teachers (this is a good thing), and supports lowering tuition costs
Used to be pro-gun, but after Parkland he changed his mind, and as Governor he signed a bill mandating universal background checks
Pro-LGBT - has voted for LGBT rights many times, including as Governor, where he signed bills banning conversion therapy and protecting gender-affirming care
Supports veterans rights and support
Supports abortion rights and women's rights
I am going to copy-paste the entire section for his views on the Israel-Hamas war, because I don't want people claiming I am taking anything out of context. Overall, he has views that echo my own in many ways:
Walz condemned Hamas's October 7 attacks in Israel and ordered flags to be lowered to half mast in the following days. After the 2024 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary, in which 19% of voters cast "uncommitted" ballots, Walz took a sympathetic view toward those doing so to protest President Biden's handling of the war in Gaza, calling them "civically engaged". Of the protests against U.S. funding of the war in Gaza, Walz said: "This issue is a humanitarian crisis. They have every right to be heard... These folks are asking for a change in course, they're asking for more pressure to be put on… You can hold competing things: that Israel has the right to defend itself, and the atrocities of October 7 are unacceptable, but Palestinian civilians being caught in this… has got to end." Walz also said he supports a ceasefire in Gaza.[100]
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AAAAHHHHHHHH It's TIM! 1000% strong MN girl here and boy it's been real fun to watch Tim (and Peggy! Our amazing lieutenant governor) take a small small Democratic majority and do incredible things. My kid ate two meals at school every day for free. DELIGHTED that he's the VP pick. LET'S GOOOOOOOO!!!!
Listen, I am just ECSTATIC. Ever since I seriously became tuned into the veepstakes, he was my number one pick (I mean, I was not immune to the brief flirtation everyone had with Beshear/Buttigieg/etc), but yes. Walz was my top pick and I was trying desperately not to get my heart too set on him in case it fell through, but he was the obvious best choice of the contenders by a country mile. He has an almost absurdly Midwestern pro-America background (military veteran, public school teacher, football coach from a small rural town, etc) AND he has managed to enact a long list of progressive policies in Minnesota with a very narrow majority in the state legislature. Also, you're going to be seeing a lot of this video, for good reason:
Also.... let's be real, Shapiro would have been an incredible distraction/drag on the ticket, unfortunately. We don't need to deal with his retrograde views on Gaza and his other baggage, and while he is a very popular governor in Pennsylvania, it's less certain that his appeal would translate to other states. We can argue (or you know, let's not and move on) about whether or not that was fair, but this is just not the year to try to win the most critical high-stakes election ever by pissing off young voters. Shapiro has done plenty of good things and has time to develop his career further, but he would have been a BAD pick for 2024 and I was alarmed at how many Respected Pundits (tm) were pulling for him. Reuters even claimed that picking him would "defang Republican attempts to make Israel-Gaza a wedge issue for Democrats," which is such a mind-bogglingly stupid statement that it makes you wonder how anyone writing it actually got paid for their political insight, but it also explains a lot about mainstream media these days. Picking Shapiro would have been an absolute gift to the Republicans and bad-faith actors and others (plus like, I don't want to have to spend time winning back the young voters who are actually once more engaged in the process!) and would have led to the media eagerly jumping into the feeding frenzy (because they're desperate to have a reason not to cover Trump's increasingly crazy-ass shit) and other Democratic-on-Democratic infighting. And it goes without saying that WE CANNOT AFFORD THAT.
As well, picking Shapiro just because you need to win PA this election cycle is yet another example of why the Electoral College sucks, and the polling averages in PA have been moving solidly blue anyway. You can just park Shapiro there and have him campaign in the state as the sitting popular governor, rather than expose him to the liability of a nationwide campaign where, as noted, all the other stuff would be a drag. If it's true that the establishment was pushing Harris to pick Shapiro and she picked Walz instead, a) GOOD! and b) if anything, this election cycle needs to fucking teach us that we have got to stop going with the Conventional Wisdom Tee Em. Walz was already out there, he was already popular with the public/energizing the grassroots, AND he was the guy who coined the "Weird" attack line that is actually effective and organically popular against the Republicans and drives them batshit. So for Kamala to lean into that and take him as her running mate is... zomgz... smart, and I am not used to the Democrats playing smart and aggressive and not just passive-defensive. I don't understand. Wow.
Anyway, now watch the New York Times (and the others, lbr, but especially the NYT) desperately try to dig up scandalous stories about that time Walz didn't stop at the 4H booth at the county fair, or walked past someone without saying "Ope just gonna sneak by ya first" or some other terrible Midwestern sin, but fuck those guys. I am EXCITED I am ENERGIZED I am THRILLED. This is a GREAT new ticket that came together at incredibly short notice and completely changed the dynamics everywhere, Walz is gonna make JD Vance cry (unsure whether I want to see Harris demolish Trumpster or Midwestern Dad to turn the cranks on Weird Couchfucking Fascist Skidmark more, but both, both, both is good). LET'S GO GET THOSE WEIRD MOTHERFUCKERS, Y'ALL!!
HARRIS/WALZ 2024!
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Thanksgiving in this country is supposed to be about remembering to be grateful for what you have and this year especially, I feel like it’s really important. I am very grateful for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice coming out after waiting 36 years. It’s truly been the only thing that has kept me sane in 2024.
Having this fandom has been so critical to me. I’m grateful to all the people making fan art and fan fiction. I’m grateful for the incredible talents of people like @fanboybrandon on instagram for making great Beetlejuice content. I am grateful for Tim Burton’s vision and all the people who made the films and the animated series possible. And of course, I am grateful that Michael Keaton brought our beloved BJ to life. He’s brought us so much laughter and in doing so, created an incredible fan community. Thank you all who follow me and engage with my posts. You have all helped make a difference in my life in a time that has been very hard. Thanks fellow Juice Boxes 🧃 💚🖤🤍🖤💚
(BTW, My main account is focused on the Loki fandom (yes, I have a thing for tricksters). That account hasn’t been very active compared to when I started it back in 2012. If you see a like on your content from Lady of Misrule, that’s me. No clue why tumblr doesn’t let me like all your content as Beetlejuice Fan Zone 🤷🏻♀️ ).
#beetlejuice#beetlejuice beetlejuice#betelgeuse#tim burton#michael keaton#beetlejuice animated#beetlejuice art#beetlejuice cosplay#beetlejuice fanart#beetlejuice fanfic#beetlejuice fandom#gratitude
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Mechtober prompt 20/day 20-Crew Night
soft mechs rights. as a treat
@mechtober-2024
One (Mostly) Violence Free Night - Reality666Rift999 - The Mechanisms (Band) [Archive of Our Own]
tw; jonny shoots ivy in the head at one point, a little bit of out angst, marius breaks his arm very briefly and it's not described, i think that's it! lmk if there's something u need me to tag!
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Lyfrassir was knitting themself a blanket, definitely-not-hiding in their room, when a knock sounded from their door.
They definitely didn’t jump and nearly throw their entire blanket half-way across their room. That did not happen.
They got up, carefully setting their project down on their bed, before walking over to their door and sliding it open part way. “Yes?”
It was Ashes, the quartermaster smirked up at them and raised an eyebrow, a cigarette between their fingers. “Hey Doll,” Ashes said.
“Hello, O’Reilly.” Lyfrassir raised an eyebrow. “Is there something you need?”
“It’s Crew Night,” they said, in lieu of explaining.
“…Okay? And what does that have to do with me, O’Reilly?”
Ashes rolled their eyes, taking a drag of the cigarette. “C’mon,” they stated, gesturing with their head. “We better get going.”
“Wh- I thought I made it clear I did not want to engage in any criminal activity while I was aboard.”
Ashes snorted. “We’re in deep space, sugar. The only criminal activity available is killin’ each other, and that’s practically half the entertainment we have. It’s not anythin’ illegal. Just c’mon, I think you’ll like it.” Ashes started walking away, and Lyf was content to just return to their room, but Aurora jerked their door open the rest of the way.
Lyfrassir huffed, trying to pull it closed. It didn’t budge, Aurora beeping at them incessantly.
“Would it help if I called this mandatory?” Ashes called back to them. Lyf sighed.
“Fine. Just let me get some of my knitting things.”
“O’course, we all gotta find ways to keep our hands busy. Aurora will show you to the right common room!” and Ashes disappeared around a corner. Lyfrassir sighed, and walked into their room to grab their half-finished blanket. Aurora beeped and creaked excitedly. Lyf raised an eyebrow, but continued on their way to this alleged ‘Crew Night’.
Aurora’s lights blinked and flashed, leading the former inspector down a twisting and winding hallway. Lyf followed, as Aurora hummed excitedly.
Eventually they arrived at the designated common room, to find the Mechanisms… making some kind of pillow fort. Brian and Raphaella were making a nest with the blankets, covering the floor with them–the floor that was already made up of mostly plush mats. Marius was on Tim’s shoulders in an attempt to hang up blankets, while Jonny was on Ashes’s shoulders doing the same thing. The Toy Soldier and Ivy were holding piles of snacks while Aurora cycled through movies on a large screen.
“…What’s going on?” They asked. Marius turned around, which did not seem to be safe–considering he fell off Tim’s shoulders doing that.
“Lyf! Hi!” he shouted excitedly, before breaking his flesh-arm from falling down. “Motherfucker!” Mairus screeched.
“You didn’t answer my question,” Lyfrassir sighed.
“It’s Crew Night, dumbass,” Jonny said. He glanced down at Marius. “The hell were you thinking, idiot? How the fuck did you even hurt yourself in this room? It’s mostly pillows.”
Marius just flipped the first mate off.
Lyfrassir huffed in annoyance. “Yes, I’ve been told it’s Crew Night already. What the fuck does that mean?”
“Did Ashes and Aurora not explain to you yet?” Ivy raised an eyebrow as the Toy Soldier started pouring cups of tea. Lyf shook their head. Ivy sighed, and turned to Ashes. “I thought I asked you to explain when you went to get them.”
“I did explain,” Ashes grinned widely.
“You just said that it was ‘Crew Night’!” Lyf argued.
Ivy sighed again. “Crew Night is basically just a day we pick at random where we all get together and relax, often with movies but sometimes we do other activities. One night we attempted to bake together, however that… did not end well. So we mostly stick to movie nights.”
“Oh…” Lyf hummed. “Alright.”
“Find a seat anywhere! We’re almost done setting up!” Raphaella called excitedly. She chirped as she tucked a blanket into a ball amidst the nest. Lyf nodded, and sat down on one of the ends of the nest, getting comfortable with their knitting again as the Mechanisms flitted about putting the finishing touches on their pillow nest. The Toy Soldier ran over and offered them a oil-black, rainbow stained teacup with what smelled like jasmine tea inside it.
“Navigator Lyf! I’m Glad You Were Able To Join Us For Crew Night. Tea?”
“Oh, uh, sure, Toy Soldier. Thank you,” Lyf took the cup and nodded to the wooden doll with a small smile on their face.
“It Has Been A Long While Since We’ve Had A Crew Night,” The Toy continued, “So It’s Nice That We’re Able To Share It With The Newest Member Of Our Crew. Do You Have A Movie Preference? Ivy And Aurora Should Be Able To Find Any Movie You Want Amidst Their Collective Data Banks!”
“Oi, it’s my turn to pick a movie!” Jonny shouted. He’d climbed off of Ashes’s shoulders, but was still draped across them like they were the only thing keeping him standing.
Ashes rolled their eyes. “Jonny, Doll, it’s only fair if you let the newbie pick.”
“They haven’t even participated in the rights fights!”
“They’re also breakable. If they did, they’d probably die.”
“They’re also right here,” Lyf rolled their eyes. They returned to their conversation with The Soldier, blowing on their tea to try and cool it off. “How long has it been since you’ve had one of these? I’ve been here about a year by now, and I don’t remember you ever doing this.”
“Oh, Goodness Me, I Can’t Seem To Recall!” The Toy Soldier pretended to think for a moment. “I Believe– Oh My, Has It Really Been Since Nastya?” the wooden thing pretended to get sad for a moment, turning away from Lyf. “My, That’s Quite A Long While… No, Surely We’ve Done It Since? I Just Can’t Quite Remember! How Odd…”
“It has been approximately four hundred and thirty-seven years since our last Crew Night,” Ivy said, walking over and placing her tray of snacks next to Lyf. “The last one was shortly, about a century or so, after Nastya went Out. So–”
Ivy didn’t get to continue whatever it was she was planning on saying, as Jonny had shot a bullet clean through her skull.
“Jonny!” Ashes snapped, yanking his gun away from him. “No death on Crew Nights! That’s literally the only rule!”
“Well she broke a rule too!” Jonny growled. “She- wh-…” Jonny’s voice trailed off as Brian picked him up by the scruff. The shortest of the Mechs went limp, eyes going wide as he stared at the floor.
“Air jail,” Brian said, “for your crimes.” Ashes laughed, lighting up a cigarette.
“Ivy was just tryna explain, Jonny,” Ashes said. “She coulda done it better, but it’s still Crew Night. Don’t shoot people just for pissing you off, or I’m taking your gun.”
Jonny grumbled, crossing his arms as his tail swished. Brian seemed satisfied though, and brought him over to the nest, depositing him in the middle and promptly wrapping him up in a blanket. Jonny glared up at the brass pilot, but the metal man just grinned and kissed Jonny on the forehead.
“Your beard’s scratchy,” Jonny mumbled.
“Oh my beard is scratchy?” Brian raised an eyebrow. “Not yours that you constantly refuse to take care of?”
“Mine isn’t made out of wire,” Jonny said. He wriggled and squirmed until an arm was free, and reached up to poke Brian’s face. “Yours is. And it’s scratchy.”
Brian rolled his eyes.
Lyf took a sip of their tea, eyes darting around the room as the other Mechanisms started settling down. “It’s… odd to see you all being… nice to each other.”
“It is Crew Night,” Brian said, flopping down in the nest next to Jonny, the other immediately curling up into him. “So we’re a bit kinder to each other.”
“You know, the more you say it, the less meaning it has to me,” Lyfrassir declared.
“Now you’re getting it!” Tim called, fae grinned widely which only worked to further confuse Lyf.
“That- what does– that doesn’t even make sense in this context.”
“Exactly,” Tim said, taking Jonny’s other side. Fae draped an arm across Jonny’s shoulders, playing with the first mate’s hair. “We don’t make sense and it’s best if you just roll with it.”
Ivy stood up, brushing her skirt off, and doing her best to get blood out of her shirt. “You don’t make sense. I happen to be very logical. Is Marius alright?”
Raphaella chirped and walked over the ball that was currently the not-a-baron. She whacked him with a wing. “Mari, we have to start,” the winged scientist whined.
“My arm hurts,” Marius whined back, from his ball. “I’m not moving for five hundred years.” Raph chirped again, more frustratedly, and picked him up in order to deposit him in the slowly forming cuddle pile. As the violinist unfurled from his ball, Lyf could see that his arm was, in fact, healed. Lyfrassir rolled their eyes at them.
Marius crawled into Brian’s lap and Ashes sat by Tim, putting faer head in their lap to play with faer hair. The Toy Soldier jumped up from its spot next to Lyf and wormed its way into the pile wherever it could fit. Raph laid across as many of the other Mechs as was physically possible, which was an endeavor aided by her wings. Ivy joined as well, sitting a bit towards the edge of the pile but close enough to snuggle up next to Ashes and Tim. Lyf watched in mild confusion as the Mechanisms created, perhaps, the most chaotic pile of living human bodies that ever existed.
This was… Not their initial impressions of the Mechanisms.
They were rude, violent, loud, and murderous. They killed without hesitation, they killed each other without hesitation. They destroyed planets, conquered them and then left them to burn because they simply got bored. The worst criminals to ever exist, and they’d only continue to exist and cause more destruction. And yet, here they were.
Cuddling and clinging on to each other like their immortal lives depended on it, about to watch a movie with each other. It was strange, an oxymoron to their very beings.
‘I have pulled up the selected movies for tonight :] If you would like to suggest one, Lyfrassir, you may as well :]’ Aurora wrote out, taking up most of the big movie screen with the words.
“Oh, I’m alright, Aurora…” Lyf said, shrugging. A thumbs up appeared on the screen, and it went dark with a purple loading circle appearing in the center as the lights dimmed.
Lyfrassir took another sip of their tea, before carefully setting it down and resuming their knitting. They weren’t going to complain about the behavior shift, if it got them some peace and quiet.
About half way through the first movie, Lyfrassir dozed off, and when they woke up again they’d somehow gotten dragged into the cuddle pile by–seemingly–Ivy and The Toy Soldier. Lyfrassir sighed, rolling their eyes. Aurora was creaking quietly and the lights were dimmed lower than they had been earlier, signifying Aurora being asleep. Lyf sighed, and curled up, returning to sleep. Just this once, they’ll allow it. It certainly helped that Ashes made a great pillow.
#purgatory creates#purgatory vents#the mechanisms#mechtober#mechtober 2024#the mechs#fanfiction#fanfic#movie nights#cuddling#cuddles#fluff#a little bit of out angst. bc i cant help myself ig#tw gun violence#ivy gets shot very briefly#ivy alexandria#jonny d'ville#drumbot brian#the toy soldier#ashes o'reilly#raphaella la cognizi#marius von raum#gunpowder tim#the aurora#lyfrassir edda#polymechs#as a treat
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I've been letting your story marinate for a few days. Perfection as always.
I'm very interested in this timeline because Paige getting married after a year dating and Azzi being very pregnant got my braincells firing. And I wonder if one is an (in)direct result of the other. Sorry this is long but I had to write it out.
Feb 2033 - Present day, Stephie is 5. Paige and Azzi not really spoken in 8 years.
2030 - P and Olivia divorce.
September 2029 - Stephie about 18 months. Paige married. Found it interesting that Paige wears an engagement ring...
Jan/Feb 2028 - Stephie born.
December 2027 - Paige's wedding, very Azzi pregnant (the timeline is timelining for me around this). Paige and Olivia been dating 'barely a year.'
Early 2027ish - Azzi flies to Dallas sees Paige and Olivia together, leaves.
Late 2026 - P and Olivia start dating. Paige hid the relationship for the first few months.
May 2024 - End of school year, Paige going into her final season in 2024-2025, appears Azzi is planning on staying until 2026.
September 2017 - Baby Pazzi being adorkable
Other thoughts as I re-read hunting for clues.
I feel like when Azzi's not around and Stephie is over Katie and Tim talked about Paige, she seemed to know a lot about her beyond just seeing her play a handful of times.
The fracturing seemed to happen while still at UConn judging by comments by Jana/Ice. And it was clearly pretty bad from the way the UConn girlies still react to it.
As a side note I kinda don't blame Azzi for feeling so off kilter, Paige parachutes back into her life after barely speaking in a decade, and slides back into how she's so pretty and all this like she didn't have a whole ass WIFE in between. I'd also feel whiplash from it tbh.
Paige doing all those little things that aren't her for the wedding she so wants to love Olivia as much as Azzi but can't. Feels like a massive red flag to be thinking about the girl you wish you could have married on your wedding day.
8 years and it seems like Paige has no idea why Azzi said no?
Azzi feels so guilty but part of me thinks she had a reason that made sense at the time that Paige couldn't/wouldn't try to understand.
I have a partial theory but will save it so as not to put out any potential spoilers (not saying I'm super confident lol).
OMG babes you're pretty much spot on with your timelines. Here's my timeline (literally written on a sticky note on my laptop) for cross-reference (spoilers crossed out obvi)
Yes absolutely, Katie and Tim have definitely spoken about Paige in front of Stephie and especially since Stephie would be with them at Wings vs Valkyries games, they'd make sure she knew
Whiplash + residual guilt, like Azzi's definitely got some valid concerns at the moment
You know how Azzi has warning bells? Paige reeeeeally needs some of those or maybe she does have them, but when they were ringing like crazy on her wedding day, she did an incredible job of ignoring them
Paige and Azzi have had their moments over the course of 8 years but they've definitely never addressed anything they should...
OMG please send me your theory and add like a clue/emoji or something so I can confirm if you're close or not without posting it cause I really wanna hear it.
#ask#fic talk#would just like to add the disclaimer that the timeline is definitely susceptible to change lol
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2023 Year End Summary
I usually use this post as a way to wrap up my year, and this one's no different.
See beneath the cut for some of the highlights of my year - and some thank you notes.
First story post of 2023: Competing For Christmas 6.2 - Let It Snow (The Scavenger Hunt)
Last story post of 2023: The Epilogue of Snow and Mistletoe (which will be posted later tonight)
Most Surprising Thing I Wrote in 2023: Wing Pit Daniel. Who the hell thought this would be a thing? Certainly not me.
Daniel + Vacation /First and 10 / Daniel + Beer / Daniel - Distracting Kiss / Smutsgiving: Sweet Potato Casserole
Something I never thought I'd write in 2023: Sex Pollen for Marcus Pike.
Things I'm proud of writing in 2023:
Tim Rockford Headcanons and the resulting Black Days
Liminality
Joel Miller: NSFW ABC's / All I Ever Needed / Everybody's Waiting For The Next Surprise 1 + 2
Over the course of the year, I wrote just under 434k words on a total of 23 series/stories/events.
This is 65k below where I wanted to be - but I definitely got sidetracked during a few months - including a few where I took vacations or my mental health was in the toilet.
My goal for next year will be 500k words again, but I'm going to set some specific goals for my writing, including finishing a few things that I've neglected for far too long. That includes:
Slopeside
Buried
Locked Down
Caught On
It's Dangerous To Fall In Love
Nightingale
I'm also going to finally release Baseball Jack in his entirety on you in 2024... get ready. I'm not going to lie - 2023 was disheartening from a writing standpoint for a lot of reasons.
Engagement was way down, the same small group of authors and stories seemed to be the only ones getting any sort of traction in the Pedro fandom, plotlines and characterization that I have no interest in writing or reading were the craze - especially for Joel, and actual feedback on things was almost nonexistent.
But that doesn't mean that I'm not proud of what I wrote, how I wrote it or why I wrote it.
I've said it before and I'll say it again - I'd rather have smaller numbers overall and be absolutely happy with what I've put out and how long it took me to do so than rush things to hop in on current popularity or hope for instant success with a story.
My writing process hasn't changed - and while I appreciate and have respect for people that can and do post things without editing or rereading or sitting on their work and letting it settle, I've never done that, and I never will. I'll also never hold my stories 'hostage' or threaten to keep new chapters under wraps until engagement improves or I hit a certain number of likes/followers/etc. That's unfair - and for something that's supposed to be fun for both writers and readers, it's baffling to me when people do this.
And now on to the fun part: I read some amazing work from some amazing authors this year. The list includes but is not limited to:
@the-blind-assassin-12 @oonajaeadira @littlemisspascal @wildemaven @trulybetty @morallyinept @prolix-yuy @tessa-quayle @grogusmum @whataperfectwasteoftime @keldabe-kriff @katareyoudrilling @undercoverpena ... and so many more. You're able to do things with words and storylines that is SO impressive. We're all lucky to see and read your work. If I didn't include you, please know it's not on purpose. And it's not only writing: it's art, too. @stealyourblorbos @valkblue @thekawaiifruitworld @versatileginger @saminadorazahi @be-an-echo ... your talent is endless. thank you for sharing.
There are so many talented people in this fandom that I wish I had more time to read and admire their work. That's one of my goals for 2024: to consume more content from people on tumblr and A03 and share it. I know I need to do better with this. I know I've been slacking. I don't want to do that anymore. My goal for 2024 is also to make some new friends on here, because to be truthful, I feel a little on the outskirts of so many friend groups, and that's no fun. So if you'd like to message me or say hello or interact, please feel free to do so. I'm also on Discord - somethingtofightfor is my username there. If we've interacted in any way throughout this year, please know that I appreciate you. I thank you for taking the time to read my work or reach out to me. I see all of the comments and messages even if I don't reply right away (something else I'm going to work on getting better about in 2024!!!) Happy New Year to all of you - I hope 2024 is bright and warm and filled with love and support. You deserve it.
#yearly round up#tumblr year end#year end recap#tumblr recap#what i did this year#and what i will do better next year#goodbye 2023#hello 2024
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For those thinking a Timothée relationship breakup announcement will occur next week I believe if anything is announced it will be at least no sooner than the week after 6 May 2024.
Why that specific date? A prestigious annual fundraiser for a major metropolitan institute with a red carpet takes place that day.
Additionally, season 5 of the Klan’s reality show launches spring 2024 (anytime from 19 March to 20 June).
Pure speculation as none of us know. Heck, they could drop an engagement announcement on that reality show and I would neither be surprised nor shocked. Timothée, sadly, has proven anything is possible with the PRelationship.
For now, let’s send some positive energy towards Timothée, Zendaya and the others that have taken ill.
The Met? ☺️
Let's send positive energy to Tim and Z yes , I' m worried 🤒🤕 and I hope Tim can do Montreal tomorrow 💚
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Star Trek POP-QUIZ #26
( 13 / 04 / 2024 )
Question 1. Which of these is the best rated TOS episode? ( according to IMDb ) a. Journey to Babel b. Amok Time c. The Trouble with Tribbles d. City on the Edge of Forever
Bonus Question: What is the rating?
Question 2. TRUE OR FALSE Tuvok's actor was considered for the role of Geordi LaForge in TNG.
Bonus Question: What is the name of Tuvok's actor?
Question 3. What does the word 'mahk-cha' mean? a. Engage b. Make it So c. Let's Go d. An untranslatable battle-cry.
Bonus Question: In which series do we see this word mentioned?
Question 4. What is Shran's warship, the 'Kumari', named after? a. Andor's moon b. An 8th Century Warlord c. The first vessel to circumnavigate Andoria d. The Andorian word for 'Conquest'
Question 5. Fill-in Question! How many times has Kirk died?
Score: __/ 5 + 3 bonus ( Answers under cut )
Question 1. d. City on the Edge of Forever
+ 9.2 / 10
Question 2. TRUE
+ Tuvok's actor is Tim Russ.
Question 3. a. Engage
+ DS9 ( S5, E21: Soldiers of the Empire )
Question 4. c. The first vessel to circumnavigate Andoria
Question 5. 4 times in 3 separate universes.
#star trek#pop culture#star trek trivia#trivia#pop quizzes#pop quiz#quizzes#trivia quiz#star trek tng#star trek ds9#star trek ent#star trek tos#star trek voy#Tuvok#klingons#andorians#james t kirk
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Saying Rocky Horror is transphobic? U haven't read 1984
What I mean is, I wrote an essay in college for a class called The Language of Thought. The essay was about 1984 and how language suppression was supposed to also suppress thought. If they eliminated "thoughtcrime" then they'd have total control of the population.
The trouble is, (luckily) it doesn't work. You can be fully enmeshed in the Party's newspeak, doublethink, doubleplusgood culture, and still feel a deep sense of longing, dissent, resistance. What is natural to oneself exists regardless of culture, and in fact, the more suppressed or repressed a culture is, it's only bound to result in behavioral or psychological hemorrhaging.
So this applies to : trans people have always existed, before the language of trans existed, which has only been within the last 12 seconds of world history. (First in print in 1960s or 70s, 1990s becoming more widely used, specifically "trans").
So yeah, 12 seconds.
In 1975, Rocky Horror was released and used the term transvestite and transsexual. These are 2 distinct things that I'm sure cishet people wouldn't recognize the difference.
Add transgender and I mean, it all has the word trans in it, so who cares what difference does it make?
So listen
The gay, queer, trans sensibility of camp
The way we understand satire
The way we are superior at doublethink, in fact, and can hold nuance and contradictions
And are more resilient than this reactionary idea that being offensive is "unsafe" or "harmful". Well, to the people who don't get what Rocky Horror is doing, those people are ALREADY dangerous, unsafe, harmful to trans and queer people, and this film isn't FOR them. Never was. That's why it flopped when it came out.
Mainstream society hates that they're the butt of the joke in this movie, the ones not in control
And if you're afraid that this is how cis het people see you, well yea maybe they do
So embrace it
Lean into it and make it camp
The more you think we're "like this" the more fun I'll have making you believe you're right, and the more you'll think we're serious. It protects us... turns the words meant to hurt us and reclaims them. Maybe it does reinforce their shallow ideas but those of us not interested in respectability... go off
Ouroboros
I support trans rights AND trans wrongs
We get to have iconic and complex queer characters who are imperfect. Engage with the flaws and think critically as an adult, without assuming that it endorses the wrongs simply by displaying them.
Even if the movie DOES seem to glorify problematic things (the coercive sex) then YOU don't have to endorse it.
It also brings to mind the same discourse with "baby it's cold outside" where it was so forbidden and unacceptable for women to enthusiastically consent to sex out of wedlock, that I'd boldly claim to reclaim the song as a way to perform this "purity" with a tongue in cheek slew of excuses to an imaginary viewer (God?) To why she was allowed to stay and fuck her man during a snowstorm. Good for her.
People are so sticky for thinking consent is an easy straightforward thing. It can be! It isn't always! Cuz we don't always know what we want and can resist the unfamiliar, the taboo, not because we DON'T want it, but because we're taught not to.
So if I may indulge to reframe the coercive sex Frank has with Brad and Janet, it's like well what if they try it and like it, and they did. Is it an example of how we should behave? Absolutely not. Don't act like that, especially in the year of our Lord 2024.
I don't think it took a whole lot of force for them to be convinced to try on queer sex though. They folded fast. Let's focus on the way symbolically this means everyone is bi and being trans is hot and also Tim Curry is hot. Cishet people need to relax.
And younger queer people also need to relax. IMHO. I get it I love the passion and fervor that younger people have when discovering things for the first time as if the rest of the world hasn't ever made the same discoveries.
Come to your conclusions the way we all had to, reinvent your wheels. I'm just old man yells at cloud, discovering what it feels like to be in my 30s and people in their 40s and beyond roll their eyes at me just as I do to the 20 Somethings and so on. Tale as old as time.
But Rocky Horror isn't transphobic. It isn't meant to be an accurate picture of a human being lol he's literally an alien actually. This is a silly movie. A batshit indulgent movie with a loose grip on narrative to begin with. But transvestite... where did that classification go?
It's not the same as transgender, transsexual, or drag queen.
As we have learned the term trans, has it not erased cross dresser and transvestite? As we blend gender, attempt to erase the binary... I still think clothing, femininity, and masculinity exist. There are subconscious ways even children portray these traits, and in clothing it's an easy way to access them, to perform gender. To access gender.
I was AFAB and I am a drag artist that most often portrays femininity. It's for pay, on stage. I enjoy it because it feels transgressive to my natural gender state (ambiguous). Am I a cross dresser? I feel like one tbh.
If someone only really likes to wear transgressive clothes erotically, is that a transvestite? Sounds like fun. What's the matter with that?
I'm just tired of accusations being made about things like Rocky Horror meant to erase all the good its done in this world to ignite the freak within me, and many many other queers. View things with a critical lens, sure, but do so with enough book learning to realize your history, the context, and the intent. I think intent matters, so sue me. You can't tell me Tim Curry didn't have a blast as that character. Do you think the intent was to be anything less than iconic?
All these coconuts seem to be falling out of trees, and I'm trying my best to know where I exist within the context of all that came before me
Otherwise idk it's a lot of wasted thoughts and words already said somewhere else but better,
ouroboros
Etc.
EDIT:
I watched the remake with Laverne Cox and it's like, see?? This is how you think you could do better? Not to be like U RUINED IT WITH WOKE like no, of course a diverse cast would benefit any production. But my observations:
Laverne and Adam Lambert are the only ones of the culture in that film. They understood the assignment because they're one of us. The rest of them were not. Just homosexual theater kids. If they even were all gay, who knows. They're devoid of cultural context. Plus! As sad as it is when a cis person is cast in a queer role, a pretty person cast in an ugly role is disrespectful. Riff Raff's casting was offensive. Magenta's casting was like, wow she seems cute and sweet, not like a sick freak. Brad was too Chadly. No ugly people make it in the Industry anymore, and when I say ugly people, I mean an LA 6, ya know, still actually attractive but you can at least disguise it.
Give me an actual "hear me out." Fuck out of here with the palatably fuckable.
Would I pay to see it as a stage play? Yes, I'd see Laverne do anything. Was it a money grab? Absolutely. That's all this industry has left.
God, do I have to start writing screenplays? Fuck
It's up to me to reinvent the wheel!!!
For my next essay I'll be discussing the Addams Family theory and philosophy, the intersection of kink, indulgence, and Zen Buddhism
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CNN Host Really Said This While Interviewing JD Vance Yesterday
JD Vance, the 2024 Republican candidate for vice president, did the media circuit on Sunday. This is notable since he’s done more media interviews, mostly with unfriendly networks, than Kamala Harris, who remains averse to sitting down with the media. The man did well, especially when pressed about Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate, lying about his military record. The Ohio Republican made it clear: it’s not about Walz’s service; it’s about how he lied about his National Guard duty for personal gain. He did well in frustrating CNN host Dana Bash about Walz’s stolen valor fiasco:
WATCH: CNN's Dana Bash, frustrated after getting her Stolen Valor questions and whataboutist followups wrapped around her head by @JDVance, desperately moves to abortion. pic.twitter.com/flFwFnHtqv— Jorge Bonilla (@BonillaJL) August 11, 2024
Then, Bash decided to trot out this fake media narrative, claiming that this industry doesn’t dabble in lies (via RealClearPolitics) [emphasis mine]:
SEN. J.D. VANCE: I imagine a lot of folks who are thinking about voting for Donald Trump in 2024, maybe they've bought in to the media lies about him. Think for yourself. Look at what he actually said. And I think you'll find that he's, one, a very engaging guy, but, two, was a very good president. BASH: There aren't media lies. We play him, and we let him speak for himself. And so people are getting exactly of what the... VANCE: I'm not accusing you of lying, Dana. You know I like you, but the media lies from time to time about Donald Trump. BASH: I know you're not. But people -- people hear him for himself. Last question. Are you going to debate Tim Walz? VANCE: Of course. I want to debate Tim Walz. I think it's important. And I think that it goes to a very fundamental difference between the Trump/Vance ticket and our opposition. We believe in talking to the media. We believe in answering questions. We believe in debating. I think it's really important. I mean, look, I'm asking the American people to make me their vice president. It's really important to stand before the American people to make that case. And I'm going to keep on doing it in whatever form when I get the opportunity.
So, the Hunter Biden laptop, the Russian collusion hoax, and the ‘very fine people’ at Charlottesville—just to name a few—weren’t media lies? The media has yet to apologize. It was only until now that Snopes, a lefty rag, decided to correct the record on the ‘very fine people’ hoax. Also, Trump never called dead American soldiers “losers and suckers.” Only Joe Biden believes that—and that’s not saying much.
Meanwhile, Vance’s interview with ABC News’ Jon Karl led to the host being busted telling a significant whopper about immigration and Harris’ border czar role. In 2023, Karl said Harris was “playing a critical role in terms of trying to stop the flow of migrants across the border." He tried to sell the ‘she wasn’t really a czar’ line with Vance yesterday:
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) August 11, 2024
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) August 11, 2024
The media’s gaslighting has caught up to them, and it’s become an exercise in self-immolation.
I enjoyed sitting down with three of the major networks today to answer the tough questions any leader should answer. Kamala Harris has done as many tough interviews as Tim Walz has battlefield deployments.— JD Vance (@JDVance) August 11, 2024
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I'm hoping Tim gets to assist Anne with some of her engagements, else she could be overworked
I don’t think her schedule has changed much to be honest. She’s doing as much as she usually does, which is a lot. I have no objections however to seeing Timmy with her for more of them, or standing in for some of them 😌
#anneswered#remember all the laughs he got for his mrs harry kane reference#let’s see some more pls#let tim do engagements 2024
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Dream Log: 03/22/2024
It took place in my room upstairs. Instead of living where I currently do, it was a strange multiplex structure resembling the family restaurant, Spain/Korea, and a bougie Fountain Valley house. For whatever reason, there were two different doors on my floor. An entry/exit from outside to the other connected multiplexes and down the hall pass was the door for the stairs.
I shared the place with Crespo, so family & friends were always visiting downstairs.
I was hanging out with (E), dickin’ around and watching something on an older blocky TV. That’s when Tim walked in… at this point, I’ve had my peace and no qualms with this garbage tier human, proceeding to question why he’s here. Apparently he was Crespo’s Smash buddy, and this completely made sense to me.
He asked if I wanted to play. For old time’s sake I entertained him with a game, and per usual he had his shitty gamer attitude. Taunting and copying the same characters. I could feel his ego inflating and his superiority complex getting fed… My tunnel-vision kicked in as my muscle memory for the game wasn’t coming back. Unknowingly Tim gave Ketamine in pill form to both (E) and me while we were both distracted. We both took it thinking it was a mint. Our minds were beginning to wander, going in and out of consciousness. I immediately knew Tim was up to no good, making conversation with (E). People were using my room’s entryway to go in and out the house for whatever reason. But I couldn’t snap myself out of the tunnel-vision and wandering mind to stop all of it.
We finally snapped out of it for a quick moment as (E) decided to go home, and I got up to walk her. I feel this guy’s insecurity emitting from him, walking outside.
As we headed to the car, my mind wanders in and out again. I’m back to reality but she disappeared. I panic and see her across the street over a fence, booking it and pulling the most ungraceful parkour maneuver to catch up.
Finally reaching (E)’s car in a one of those shaggy liquor store parking lots with rocks everywhere, we get into her gold/beige Camry V6 but the driver’s seat is on the right side…
She begins to take me home, but now a road into a forest where it begins to get darker. Both our consciences are fading. SHE begins to fade. I asked “what did y’all take about..?”.
“We talked about how it is, moving to Irvine”
We approach a cliff AND everything clicks as I begin to wake up.
Crespo is in TN and has no ties to Tim. WHY THE FUCK were people doing through my room with their SHOES on. I don’t even live with people. Why did i let this dude back into my life. Where is (E), why is she disappearing, that’s not her car, why are we on the wrong side of the road. We were drugggggggeed. What would’ve happened if I moved to Irvine?
Interpretation…
- recent events with encountering but not engaging with Tim and MLE saying she TOO saw him in Irvine.
- seeing (E) more lately the last few weeks and our conversations: blocky tv, Camry, her going MIA
- thoughts of visiting Korea and Spain
- conversation about ketamine
- Crespo might be a mix of Smash and MLE’s ex’s name
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What Happens If Republicans Win Midterms
New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/what-happens-if-republicans-win-midterms/
What Happens If Republicans Win Midterms
Gop Lawmakers Threaten To Punish Democrats If They Win Back Control Of Congress
‘When we take the majority back in 2022, I’ll make sure consequences are doled out,’ said Rep. Madison Cawthorn.
Republicans are outraged that Democrats are governing by majority rule in the House. In retaliation, they are vowing to do the same things they now decry as unprecedented and wrong.
“Never in the history of our country has a Speaker acted like such an authoritarian,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy on Thursday.
He was upset that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had his request to appoint Republican Reps. Jim Banks and Jim Jordan to the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol. Both men voted to overturn the 2020 election results and pushed the lie that President Joe Biden only won because the election was stolen.
“Never in the history of Congress and the select committee I checked with the historian has this ever taken place, where the one party decides who’s all on the committee,” McCarthy told Fox News in a video he with his tweet. McCarthy in fact to give Republican then-Speaker John Boehner the exact same unilateral appointment power in 2014 for the Select Committee on the Events Surrounding the 2012 Terrorist Attack in Benghazi.
But while House Republicans claim they are being mistreated because the majority won’t let them have their way, they are also promising to retaliate by turning the same actions they criticize now against Democrats in 2023.
TAGS
‘the Beast Is Growing’: Republicans Follow A Winning At All Costs Strategy Into The Midterms
Much remains uncertain about the midterm elections more than a year away including the congressional districts themselves, thanks to the delayed redistricting process. The Senate, meanwhile, looks like more of a toss-up.
House Democrats think voters will reward them for advancing President Joe Biden’s generally popular , which involves showering infrastructure money on virtually every district in the country and sending checks directly to millions of parents. And they think voters will punish Republicans for their rhetoric about the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2020 election.
“Democrats are delivering results, bringing back the economy, getting people back to work, passing the largest middle-class tax cut in history, while Republicans are engaged in frankly violent conspiracy theory rhetoric around lies in service of Donald Trump,” said Tim Persico, executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
But the challenges Democrats face are real and numerous.
They knew they would face a tough 2022 immediately after 2020, when massive, unexpected GOP gains whittled the Democratic majority to just a handful of seats.
“House Republicans are in a great position to retake the majority,” said Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Minn., who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee, “but we are taking nothing for granted.”
His rural district had been trending Republican for years. Kind won re-election last year by just about 10,000 votes.
What If The Republicans Win Everything Again
Total victory for the G.O.P. would mean Trump unleashed.
Opinion Columnist
The end of Robert Muellers investigation. The loss of health insurance for several million people. New laws that make it harder to vote. More tax cuts for the rich. More damage to the environment. A Republican Party molded even more in the image of President Trump.
These are among the plausible consequences if the Republicans sweep the midterm elections and keep control of both the House and Senate. And dont fool yourself. That outcome, although not the most likely one, remains possible. The last couple of weeks of polling have shown how it could happen.
Voters who lean Republican including whites across the South could set aside their disappointment with Trump and vote for Republican congressional candidates. Voters who lean left including Latinos and younger adults could turn out in low numbers, as they usually do in midterm elections. The Republicans continuing efforts to suppress turnout could also swing a few close elections.
No matter what, Democrats will probably win the popular vote in the House elections, for the first time since 2012. Trump, after all, remains unpopular. But the combination of gerrymandering and the concentration of Democratic voters in major cities means that a popular-vote win wont automatically translate into a House majority.
I Do Not Buy That A Social Media Ban Hurts Trumps 2024 Aspirations: Nate Silver
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sarah: Yeah, Democrats might not have their worst Senate map in 2022, but it will by no means be easy, and how they fare will have a lot to do with the national environment. And as we touched on earlier, Bidens overall approval rating will also make a big difference in Democrats midterm chances.
nrakich: Yeah, if the national environment is even a bit Republican-leaning, that could be enough to allow solid Republican recruits to flip even Nevada and New Hampshire. And then it wouldnt even matter if Democrats win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
One thing is for sure, though whichever party wins the Senate will have only a narrow majority, so I think were stuck in this era of moderates like Sens. Joe Manchin and Lisa Murkowski controlling every bills fate for at least a while longer.
sarah: Lets talk about big picture strategy, then, and where that leaves us moving forward. Its still early and far too easy to prescribe election narratives that arent grounded in anything, but one gambit the Republican Party seems to be making at this point is that attacking the Democratic Party for being too progressive or woke will help them win.
What do we make of that playbook headed into 2022? Likewise, as the party in charge, what are Democrats planning for?
With that being said, the GOPs strategies could still gin up turnout among its base, in particular, but its hard to separate that from general dissatisfaction with Biden.
The 2024 Presidential Election Will Be Close Even If Trump Is The Gop Nominee
One very important thing we should have all taken away from both the 2016 and 2020 presidential contests is that the two major parties are in virtual equipose . The ideological sorting-out of the two parties since the 1960s has in turn led to extreme partisan polarization, a decline in ticket-splitting and and in number of genuine swing voters. Among other things, this has led to an atmosphere where Republicans have paid little or no price for the extremism theyve disproportionately exhibited, or for the bad conduct of their leaders, most notably the 45th president.
Indeed, the polarized climate encourages outlandish and immoral base mobilization efforts of the sort Trump deployed so regularly. Some Republicans partisans shook their heads sadly and voted the straight GOP ticket anyway, And to the extent there were swing voters they tended strongly to believe that both parties were equally guilty of excessive partisanship, and/or that all politicians are worthless scum, so why not vote for the worthless scum under whom the economy hummed?
The bottom line is that anyone who assumes Republicans are in irreversible decline in presidential elections really hasnt been paying attention.
Republicans Set To Rebound Big In 2022 Midterms Unless
We are just 600 short days away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it is the perfect time to handicap the Republicans chances to win back the House, Senate and prepare a serious challenge to President Biden
Patrick Joseph ToomeyBlack women look to build upon gains in coming electionsWatch live: GOP senators present new infrastructure proposalSasse rebuked by Nebraska Republican Party over impeachment vote already have Democrats scrambling to flip those seats in much easier electoral terrain.
As I noted in The Hill last month, Republicans are on the hook to defend 20 of their seats in 2022, while Team Blue has just 14 seats to hold, all in states won by Joe Biden in 2020. Since March is a perfect month for sports analogies, a good defense provides for a strong offense when the status quo is Democrats retaining control of the upper chamber. While there is clearly a power in incumbency, FiveThirtyEight suggests that senate vacancies are actually more of a mixed bag. In election cycles since 1974, the party with the most Senate retirements has actually gained seats just as often as it has lost them. For every year like 2008, when more Republicans than Democrats retired and Republicans lost seats accordingly, theres a year like 2012, when a whopping seven Democrats retired yet the party picked up two Senate seats.
How these various Rs play out in the next few months will determine if the Rs are successful in 2022.
Rising Violent Crime Is Likely To Present A Political Challenge For Democrats In 2022
But there are roadblocks to fully enacting Democrats’ agenda. Their thin majorities in both chambers of Congress mean nearly all Democrats have to get on board with every agenda item in order to push through major legislative priorities. And without adjusting or eliminating the legislative filibuster in the Senate, Democrats need 10 Republicans to join them for various legislation a near-impossible task.
Renewable Energy And Health Care Among The Sectors That Could Get Shakeup Due To Midterms
The 2022 midterm elections are already affecting Washington, and the results could shake up sectors such as renewable energy, health care and finance.
As Democrats in Washington work to deliver on infrastructure spending and other priorities, theyre trying to make progress in large part because of a key event thats still more than a year away.
That event is the midterm elections on Nov. 8, 2022, when Republicans will aim to take back control of the House and Senate and become a more powerful check on the priorities of President Joe Biden and his fellow Democrats.
What leaders are thinking about, particularly since we have unified party control, is that these midterm elections are inevitably a referendum on the governing party, said Sarah Binder, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution and a professor of political science at George Washington University in Washington, D.C.
In that sense, shrinking time coupled with What is it that Democrats want to run on? it adds pressure on Democrats to get their priorities through the door.
Time is growing short, Binder said, because party leaders often avoid making their members vote on tough issues in the same calendar year as an election, since that can hurt incumbents in tight races. Party leaders often think primarily about what they can get done in the first year of a Congress, as opposed to counting on the second year, she said.
Sectors that could win or lose
Year
Races worth watching
Can Democrats Avoid A Wipeout In 2022
Bidens plan: Go big or go home.
The good news for Democrats who watched Joe Biden unveil a historically ambitious agenda last night is that newly elected presidents have almost always passed some version of their core economic planparticularly when their party controls both congressional chambers, as Bidens does now.
The bad news: Voters have almost always punished the presidents party in the next midterm election anyway. The last two times Democrats had unified controlwith Bill Clinton in 199394 and Barack Obama in 200910they endured especially resounding repudiations in the midterms, which cost Clinton his majority in both chambers and Obama the loss of the House.
Theres a very different strategy this time, David Price, a Democratic representative from North Carolina and a former political scientist, told me. Theres an openness now to the sense that a bolder plan, ironically, might have greater appeal for independents and others we need to attract than trying to trim and split the difference with Republicans.
Read: The GOP cheat code to winning back the House
There is this recognition of this moment and how fleeting it is, and an evaluation that, absent the trifecta of control, it is very hard to move big policy, said a senior official at one of the partys leading outside advocacy groups, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategizing. So you have to take your shot. I think thats part of what undergirds Go big.
What If Republicans Win The Midterms
March 3, 2018
WASHINGTON A sizable portion of the American population has been convulsing with outrage at President Trump for more than a year. Millions of people who previously took only mild interest in politics have participated in protests, fumed as they stayed riveted to news out of Washington and filled social media accounts once devoted to family updates and funny videos with furious political commentary.
Yet public life on the whole has remained surprisingly calm. A significant factor in keeping the peace has surely been anticipatory catharsis: The widespread expectations of a big Democratic wave in the coming midterm elections are containing and channeling that indignation, helping to maintain order.
What will happen if no such wave materializes and that pressure-relief valve jams shut?
The country was already badly polarized before the plot twist of election night in 2016, of course, but since then liberals and much of what remains of Americas moderate center have been seething in a way that dwarfs the usual disgruntlement of whichever faction is out of power. While nobody can know for sure whether Mr. Trump would have lost but for Russias meddling, many of his critics clearly choose to believe he is in the White House because Vladimir Putin tricked the United States into making him its leader.
This November, if the wave turns out to be a mere trickle, we could see the accomplishment of that goal take hold.
Poll: Republicans Set To Win House Back In Massive Landslide
Republicans are set to win back the House in a historic landslide in 2022, according to a poll conducted by NBC News.
Based on all factors, youd have to consider Republicans the early favorites for the House majority in 2022, poll tracker David Wasserman NBC.
Democrats best hope is that Bidens approval rating stays above 50 percent and that Republicans have a tougher time turning out their voters without Trump on the ballot.
reports: The NBC report cites the all-too-predictable trend of the presidents party losing House seats in midterm elections, Democrats choosing not to run for reelection in some cases, and Republicans reaping the benefits of increased online donations, which are now on par with those of Democrats.
It is early, too early, to guarantee the Democrats loss of their slim 220-212 House majority. Voters wont hit the polls for almost 15 months, and things often have a way of changing on a dime in the world of politics. But the early signs certainly arent encouraging for the Democrats, especially as President Joe Bidens approval rating has taken a hit in recent weeks. American voters are being bombarded with images of a completely bungled withdrawal of Afghanistan and headlines about increased COVID hospitalizations and deaths. Inflation is also becoming a growing concern each month, contrary to the hopes of the Federal Reserve, and the crisis at the southern border shows no signs of abating.
Colwell: Republicans Are Likely To Win Control Of The House Next Year But
Three reasons why Republicans are very likely to take control of the House next year involve things over which Democrats have little or no control.
There is, however, one reason why Democrats might be able somehow to hang on to their slim majority. And they do have better prospects of at least holding on to the 50-50 Senate tie.
Reasons for Republicans winning control of the House:
FIRST: History is on their side. The party out of the White House almost always makes big gains in the first midterm election in a new presidency. In those midterm elections since the end of World War II, the average loss for the presidents party has been 29 seats. Democrats lost 63 seats in the 2010 midterm after election of President Barack Obama. Republicans lost 40 seats in the 2018 midterm after election of Donald Trump.
Because Democrats already lost seats in 2020, even as Joe Biden won the presidency, Republicans need only a net of five seats to win the majority. Democrats cant go back to 2020 to win more seats.
Factors in midterm losses for the presidents party include voters wanting a check on the president and disillusionment over any presidents inability to bring about everything voters hoped for.
SECOND: Redistricting after the census will result in many more safe Republican seats. Thats because Republicans control state legislatures in far more states than do Democrats. Both parties gerrymander. But it is the GOP controlling district drawing in many more states.
Site Map
Republicans In Decent Shape To Win House Majority In 2022
Washington Examiner
It is never preferable to be in the minority party in a legislative body. But as far as minorities go, House Republicans are in a pretty good spot.
Between the trend of midterm elections usually the party that is not in the White House, a closely divided House, and a party apparatus ready to continue their expectations-exceeding 2020 strategy while Democrats rework theirs, Republicans are on track to winning back the House in 2022.
“It has the makings of what could be a good year for the Republicans when it comes to the House,” said J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
President Bidens approval rating is around 53%, and while he is not underwater, history indicates he would need to bump that rating up by at least 10 points in order to have a shot at gaining seats. Gallup analysis found that even presidents with approval ratings of 50% during the midterm elections averaged a loss of about 14 House seats from their own party.
That would be enough to bump Republicans back into the majority. Democrats have the slimmest House majority since 1930, currently 221 seats to 210 GOP seats .
Republicans in the 2020 cycle shattered the expectations of analysts who forecasted Democrats to gain House seats in 2020. Not a single Republican incumbent lost the election, and they picked off 13 incumbent Democrats.
But it is not all smooth sailing for Republicans.
Why We Arent Going To Panic
We should all have our eyes wide open as we inch closer to the 2022 Midterms, but by no means should we give up hope. There are plenty of reasons why we can win the midterms.
For starters, Democrats appear to be quite awake to how dangerous the Republican party has become in just the past few years. And since the Republicans dont appear to be any less radicalized with Trump out of the party, I dont think Democrats are going to go back to sleep.
At this point in the election cycle, we dont have a full picture of who is retiring from Congress or who the candidates will be for these seats. Getting great candidates for crucial, must-win seats can energize voters and donors.
Presidential approval seems to have an important effect on midterms and at this point, Bidens approval rating is 15 points higher than his disapproval. If he continues to do good things for Americans and keep his approval rating high, that will help the Democrats a lot.
So, lets approach this midterm as clearly as possible: Our democracy is still on the line, and as awful as the Republicans are, they are in striking position to win back some power in Congress. Each of us needs to do everything we can to ensure that does not happen. If you arent already, consider subscribing to Political Charge as Ill be delving into specific actions we can take every month!
If you want to win the midterms, please share this post with others who want to win, too!
Republicans Will Likely Take Control Of The Senate By 2024
The usual midterm House losses by the White House party dont always extend to the Senate because only a third of that chamber is up for election every two years and the landscape sometimes strongly favors the presidential party . But there a still generally an out-party wave that can matter, which is why Republicans may have a better than average chance of winning in at least some of the many battleground states that will hold Senate elections next year . If they win four of the six youll probably be looking at a Republican Senate.
But its the 2024 Senate landscape that looks really promising for the GOP. Democrats will be defending 23 seats and Republicans just 10. Three Democratic seats, and all the Republican seats, are in states Trump carried twice. Four other Democratic seats are in states Trump won once. It should be a banner year for Senate Republicans.
Balance Of Power: 2022 Senate Races
If Democrats want to win the again, they need to win the four competitive seats they currently hold Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. That or augment any loss with a gain in any of their three competitive targets Pennsylvania, , or North Carolina.
This Senate preview still holds up, but the shorter version is Democrats are easily favored in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. They should also win New Hampshire if Chris Sununu doesnt run .
The thing is, theyre also favored to win in Pennsylvania, where they have a strong field of primary candidates and where Joe Biden won.
They have to be no worse than, and admittedly probably better than, a tossup in Wisconsin, where Republicans have candidate issues and Democrats have a strong likely nominee.
So even if New Hampshire goes Republican because of some local candidate factors, Democrats are in a good spot to win the Senate again.
That means if youre trying to make a bet, you can essentially box out two of four combinations where the GOP wins the Senate, and focus your attention on the two remaining options, if youre looking for the values.
The 1858 Midterm Election
November 2, 1858
There is always a lull after a tempest, and so the political world has subsided into an unwonted calm since the election, commented a reporter for The New York Times. The Republicans are naturally . . . exultant over their sweeping victories. Such a commentary might apply to any number of elections, but this reporter described the outcome of a particularly historic electionthe midterm election of 1858. The Republican success that year was especially remarkable because the Republican Party was only four years old.
Almost by spontaneous combustion, the Republican Party burst forth in 1854 in response to the controversial Kansas-Nebraska Act. For decades, Americas political battles had been fought between the Democrats and the Whigs. By the early 1850s, however, the issue of slavery had splintered the Whigs into warring factions and divided Democrats between north and south. When Democratic senator Stephen Douglas pushed his Kansas-Nebraska bill to passage, including its proposal to settle the issue of slavery by popular sovereignty, the uproar among northern abolitionists and anti-slavery activists was too fierce to be contained by the ailing Whig Party. As one person commented, The Whigs were simply not angry enough.
The Future Could Actually Be Bright For Republicans
Ed Kilgore
The most common political narrative outside MAGA-land is that the Republican Party is screwed, and richly deserves the ignominious future it faces.
Until recently the GOP was a reasonably normal and intermittently successful center-right political party, not wildly different from its counterparts in other countries with a two-party system, despite some racist and militarist habits that burst into view in times of stress. But then America elected a Black president, and Republicans went a little crazy, according to those outside their circles. First they abetted a destructively antediluvian Tea Party Movement and then lurched into the arms of an evil charlatan who somehow got elected president and spent four years trashing hallowed conservative principles and losing both Congress and the White House before his disgraceful and violence-inflected departure.
Worse yet, in the face of huge demographic challenges that beg for a new approach, the Republican Party has now lashed itself to a Trumpian mast going forward, following the most consistently unpopular president in American history in his bizarre crusade to deny he has ever lost anything. Meanwhile a shockingly united Democratic Party is whipping a few decades worth of liberal legislation through Congress as Republicans whine about cancel culture and try to sell the idea that Joe Biden is actually Che Guevara.
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Kobe renders and Tebow thrives: our bold sports prophecies for 2017
On the heels of a boasts year that was chock full of amazes, Guardian US contributors make their bold prognosis for the months to come
Here are our daring projections for 2017. Please memo the daring ( or should that be bold ?) in bold prophecies these are to be taken with a pinch of salt. Especially the Tebow one.
Kobe Bryant will return from retirement
Few contestants are as prepared for their own lives after basketball than Kobe, a husband of diverse fascinates and prodigious worldwide prestige. Few athletes too are as ill-suited for retirement than Kobe, who burns to be on the court. These last-place few months away have to be killing him. He will mount a comeback, though probably not with the Lakers, who are building around a gifted young core of participates. Hes always wanted to play for the Knicks. Would Phil Jackson dare lower him on the same flooring as Carmelo Anthony? LC
Tiger Woods “re going to win” again
The notion that Woods could challenge for, let alone prevail, major championships was shortcoming even before his last and lengthy absence through injury. The depth of talent at golfs conference represents Woods will always be overawed and outplayed in such surroundings now.
Still, he can and will win lower tier PGA Tour events. Timbers has a inclination to prevail on the same tracks, as shows up his register. He holds more competitive ability than some of the individuals who win once or twice on Tour in any generated year. If fitness hassles certainly are behind Lumbers, he will return to the platform. Then? Cue more major consideration. EM
An American not appointed Serena will win a grand slam title
Serena Williams did acquire Wimbledon six months ago, so gives not make her in the soil just yet. But shes now closer to 40 than 30 there are still no question her stranglehold on the womens tour was faded during a year that determined the late-blooming Angelique Kerber triumph a duo of major entitlements to inherit “the worlds” No1 grading on deserve. The door has never been more open for the boasts 90 s babies. Garbie Muguruza and Karolina Pliskova took advantage in 2016; Madison Keys are as follows this year. The 21 -year-old from Illinois, who has played into the second week at the last six majors, has all the fires, and power on both wings. Look for her to give it all together and become the first American woman not reputation Williams to capture a major singles title since Jennifer Capriati in 2002. BAG
A wildcard crew will win Super Bowl LI
The NFL playoffs do not favor wildcard teams. To prevail the Super Bowl as a wildcard you have to win on the road three straight weeks and thumped three of the conferences top teams. That said, it has happened six hours before. Three of the last 11 Super Bowl champs came into the postseason as wildcards and 2017 s will as well. With no great, dominant crew, the footpath is wide open. The Lions stumbled late in the season but still have a potent offense and the Patriots would rather forget their Super Bowls against the Whale and Eli Manning. LC
Villanova will finish the regular season undefeated
Villanova are gazing red-hot again this season. Photograph: Steven Branscombe/ USA Today Sports
The Wildcats have moved to No1 in the canvas, but virtually no commentators predicted a recur for a Villanova team that rendered most of its title-winning 2016 crew. Aside from a shaky rendition against DePaul late in 2016, the Wildcats have been stellar this season. Josh Hart has been best available actor in the country, Jalen Brunson renders offense at will when he has the dance and Villanova are touching their threes something they didnt do until the tournament last-place season. Ken Pomeroys stats say the Wildcats have less than a 2% chance to go undefeated in the regular season, but with this unit I like those curious. DM
Sebastian Giovinco will return to Europe
Arguably the best actor in its own history of Major League Soccer, Sebastian Giovinco has stimulated himself a superstar at Toronto FC. But his success has come at a cost. Italy manager Giampiero Ventura, just like Antonio Conte before him, says the playmaker has no international future as long as he is a MLS actor. And so Giovinco could be tempted back to Europe, especially with the 2018 World Cup coming into view. GR
Tim Tebow will expand as a baseball player
At first glance, it seems that New York Mets farmhand Tim Tebow, super-athlete and sun of all of our lives, sufficiently flunked during the course of its stint in the Arizona Fall League, and thats maybe because of his measly slash course of. 194/.296 /. 242 over 70 plateful illusions. Tebow did not punched a single home run, but he did help save a fan having a seizure, staying with him until the paramedics arrived, and so its perhaps safe to say that the outfielder is more Moonlight Graham than Babe Ruth, right? Not so quickly: Tebow was emulating against some of the best potentials baseball has to offer, and picked up steam as he went, finishing with an 11 -game stretch where he stumbled. 281 and posted an OBP of. 425. In 2017, the Mets elude all logic and hopes by their May promotion of a surging Tebow to help with their droop mid-week attendance. The Wilpons exchange a package they call Tebow Tuesdays, which predicts at the least one pinch-hit image per-game and private autograph conferences for the first 50 to sign up. Tebow not only lives, but prospers, becoming a cornerstone in the Mets lineup as they acquire their first name since 1986. DL
Tom Brady will finally show signs of age
Tom Brady remains ahead of the youngsters … for now. Photograph: Reinhold Matay/ USA Today Sports
Tom Brady will turn 40 before the 2017 season. Saying a 40 -year old athlete in a contact sport will appear his age doesnt seem specially bold, but in Bradys case, it is. In his age 39 season this year, hes the favourite for league MVP and is having one of the best seasons of his vocation. But Peyton Mannings performance fell of a cliff from his age 38 to 39 seasons and Brett Favres did the same in the only season he opened as a 40 year-old. Perhaps Brady extends his youth a year or two beyond that duet, but the end is coming. Soon. Time, unlike the 2007 New England Patriots, is undefeated. DG
Floyd Mayweather makes a face turn
No one guesses hes genuinely retired, even if more than 15 months have legislated since he last clambered through the ropes. Not when one more contend could promote him to the singular differentiate of 50-0, one better than Bumpy Marcianos accepted epitome of fistic perfection. Not when he can effectively identify his own toll as a free agent, having fulfilled his six-fight contract with CBS and Showtime.
Many insiders speculate a rematch with Manny Pacquiao towers, which, despite the tart aftertaste of their first installment, would still be the second-richest engage in biography. But it says here Mayweather will instead opt to fight Adrien Broner, an adversary who scarcely deserves the possibilities of but one who would allow Floyd to take on the unfamiliar capacity of good guy in the promotion.
Eight-figure paydays werent the norm for Mayweather until he swerved heel, trading in his respectful and humble Pretty Boy Floyd persona for a pantomime scoundrel whom more love pay to watch lose than watch win. But simply because he made the business decision to break bad doesnt signify he doesnt am worried about beings liking him. By going against the one fighter in the world more disliked than himself, Mayweather will exit video games as the cowboy in the white-hot hat. BAG
Los Angeles will be awarded the 2024 Olympics
Maybe this doesnt prepare as a bold prophecy, after all most of the other competitors have put out. But Los Angeles was formerly killed as a hopeful after the USOC opted Boston as the American city to push. It has never seemed like LA was a favorite of anyone to legion video games for a third time. The other competitors Paris and Budapest are more pleading choices. And hitherto LA might be the perfect Olympic city. The facilities are already in place. It is likely to be host the Competition next year. For the foregoing reasons Los Angeles will be the safe option. Probably the only choice. LC
Ronda Rousey redoubles down … and wins big
After being embarrassed by Amanda Nunes in Las Vegas on Friday, many have conjectured that Ronda Rousey wont fight again. Shes noncommittal but we say she will penetrate the octagon during the first half of the brand-new year, before Conor McGregor even books another combat, and get back to her winning practices. It wont is currently under 135 lbs, nonetheless. Rousey will venture up to the featherweight department and chase down a fight with Cris Cyborg Justino( presuming she available after a PED tussle with Usada) in a last trench effort to rebuild herself as a competitor and secure one more big-money fighting. JG
The Washington Nationals will miss the playoffs
Although the National did triumph the NL East by eight competitions in 2016, reciting in 2017 will be substantially more difficult. They should not expect Daniel Murphy to have the demon season that he had in 2016. Washington was also apparently chasing some bigger reputations this offseason including starting pitcher Chris Sale and closer Kenley Jansen , amongst other, but were unable to territory them. While having Max Scherzer and Bryce Harper on a listing can make any team a playoff hopeful, there are questions encircling their role players including an oft-injured Ryan Zimmerman and an aging Jayson Werth. With the Mets power limbs rendering from trauma, and other NL units including the St Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants becoming moves this offseason, the Nationals will have a rockier road to October. EF
An NFL player will come out as homosexual
Michael Sam was the first openly lesbian musician drawn up in NFL history. Photograph: Jasen Vinlove/ USA Today Sports
An active NFL player, one known to casual devotees, will come out as homosexual. As of now, the specter of Michael Sam, the defensive goal who came out prior to the NFL sketch and discontinued up never playing in a regular season activity, looms over the conference as a missed opening. Sams story isnt one that anyone wants to see recited. Because of this, I amply expect the first out player in the conference to be someone who is already established as an NFL-caliber player and has had significant know dealing with the national media, two advantages that Sam never had. HF
The NHL takes actual steps to increase scoring
Yes, I know. This is supposed to be a bold prediction, and suggesting that a pro boasts tournament will try to boost offense doesnt exactly definitely sounds like going out on a limb. Every league knows that tallying exchanges, and every conference manufactures sure the rulebook helps abundance of it. Its plays sell 101.
But this is the NHL were talking about. The tournament has talks to boosting offense for over two decades literally but they never actually do it. This time, the decided theyd tweak the goaltending material. Then, shrieks, they didnt constitute such adjustments in time, so good-for-nothing changed. Thats just how things go in the NHL.
But I think this year could be different. Maybe its wishful thinking, but todays NHL is parcelled with agitating young endowment like we havent considered to be in an entire generation. Surely now is the time to let them glisten. Surely now is when well lastly get some forwards fantasizing from a league addicted to its past. Surely we cant do three straight decades of throwing tallying charges while the powers that be twiddle their thumbs and wonder why ratings are down.
Or maybe we are in a position. But you asked for something bold. In the NHL, unhappily, this prepares. SM
The Los Angeles Lakers will construct the NBA playoffs
I can hear you rolled your eyes through personal computers. Real cute, but these projections are supposed to be bold, right? The Lakers are currently exclusively two games out of the eighth seed in the Western Conference. Granted, they are also only three games ahead of the cellar-dwelling Phoenix Suns, but that just goes to show you how mushy and undefined the merits of the West is right now. Anyone could catch fire for a few weeks and find themselves volunteering to be razed by the Fighters in four tournaments this spring.
The Lakers were poising around. 500 before Thanksgiving, then misplaced 12 of 13 during a brutal superhighway journey made worse by injuries to Julius Randle, DAngelo Russell, Nick Young, and Larry Nance Jr. A health Laker team still cant performance much protection, but they are unable score against anybody, as triumphs over the Warriors, Thunder, Rockets, and a short-handed Clippers team proves. Most importantly, they have as good an opportunity as anyone in the West basement. The Kings, Pelicans, Mavericks, Timberwolves, and Blazers all have genuine hotshots, but what the Lakers can offer is something close to the team cohesion that defines the elite forces in the NBA. This is still a bumpy gang that is dragging a few laughable contracts down special courts every night, but they have as good as possibility as anyone right now. DS
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What Happens If Republicans Win Midterms
New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/what-happens-if-republicans-win-midterms/
What Happens If Republicans Win Midterms
Gop Lawmakers Threaten To Punish Democrats If They Win Back Control Of Congress
‘When we take the majority back in 2022, I’ll make sure consequences are doled out,’ said Rep. Madison Cawthorn.
Republicans are outraged that Democrats are governing by majority rule in the House. In retaliation, they are vowing to do the same things they now decry as unprecedented and wrong.
“Never in the history of our country has a Speaker acted like such an authoritarian,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy on Thursday.
He was upset that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had his request to appoint Republican Reps. Jim Banks and Jim Jordan to the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol. Both men voted to overturn the 2020 election results and pushed the lie that President Joe Biden only won because the election was stolen.
“Never in the history of Congress and the select committee I checked with the historian has this ever taken place, where the one party decides who’s all on the committee,” McCarthy told Fox News in a video he with his tweet. McCarthy in fact to give Republican then-Speaker John Boehner the exact same unilateral appointment power in 2014 for the Select Committee on the Events Surrounding the 2012 Terrorist Attack in Benghazi.
But while House Republicans claim they are being mistreated because the majority won’t let them have their way, they are also promising to retaliate by turning the same actions they criticize now against Democrats in 2023.
TAGS
‘the Beast Is Growing’: Republicans Follow A Winning At All Costs Strategy Into The Midterms
Much remains uncertain about the midterm elections more than a year away including the congressional districts themselves, thanks to the delayed redistricting process. The Senate, meanwhile, looks like more of a toss-up.
House Democrats think voters will reward them for advancing President Joe Biden’s generally popular , which involves showering infrastructure money on virtually every district in the country and sending checks directly to millions of parents. And they think voters will punish Republicans for their rhetoric about the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2020 election.
“Democrats are delivering results, bringing back the economy, getting people back to work, passing the largest middle-class tax cut in history, while Republicans are engaged in frankly violent conspiracy theory rhetoric around lies in service of Donald Trump,” said Tim Persico, executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
But the challenges Democrats face are real and numerous.
They knew they would face a tough 2022 immediately after 2020, when massive, unexpected GOP gains whittled the Democratic majority to just a handful of seats.
“House Republicans are in a great position to retake the majority,” said Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Minn., who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee, “but we are taking nothing for granted.”
His rural district had been trending Republican for years. Kind won re-election last year by just about 10,000 votes.
What If The Republicans Win Everything Again
Total victory for the G.O.P. would mean Trump unleashed.
Opinion Columnist
The end of Robert Muellers investigation. The loss of health insurance for several million people. New laws that make it harder to vote. More tax cuts for the rich. More damage to the environment. A Republican Party molded even more in the image of President Trump.
These are among the plausible consequences if the Republicans sweep the midterm elections and keep control of both the House and Senate. And dont fool yourself. That outcome, although not the most likely one, remains possible. The last couple of weeks of polling have shown how it could happen.
Voters who lean Republican including whites across the South could set aside their disappointment with Trump and vote for Republican congressional candidates. Voters who lean left including Latinos and younger adults could turn out in low numbers, as they usually do in midterm elections. The Republicans continuing efforts to suppress turnout could also swing a few close elections.
No matter what, Democrats will probably win the popular vote in the House elections, for the first time since 2012. Trump, after all, remains unpopular. But the combination of gerrymandering and the concentration of Democratic voters in major cities means that a popular-vote win wont automatically translate into a House majority.
I Do Not Buy That A Social Media Ban Hurts Trumps 2024 Aspirations: Nate Silver
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sarah: Yeah, Democrats might not have their worst Senate map in 2022, but it will by no means be easy, and how they fare will have a lot to do with the national environment. And as we touched on earlier, Bidens overall approval rating will also make a big difference in Democrats midterm chances.
nrakich: Yeah, if the national environment is even a bit Republican-leaning, that could be enough to allow solid Republican recruits to flip even Nevada and New Hampshire. And then it wouldnt even matter if Democrats win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
One thing is for sure, though whichever party wins the Senate will have only a narrow majority, so I think were stuck in this era of moderates like Sens. Joe Manchin and Lisa Murkowski controlling every bills fate for at least a while longer.
sarah: Lets talk about big picture strategy, then, and where that leaves us moving forward. Its still early and far too easy to prescribe election narratives that arent grounded in anything, but one gambit the Republican Party seems to be making at this point is that attacking the Democratic Party for being too progressive or woke will help them win.
What do we make of that playbook headed into 2022? Likewise, as the party in charge, what are Democrats planning for?
With that being said, the GOPs strategies could still gin up turnout among its base, in particular, but its hard to separate that from general dissatisfaction with Biden.
The 2024 Presidential Election Will Be Close Even If Trump Is The Gop Nominee
One very important thing we should have all taken away from both the 2016 and 2020 presidential contests is that the two major parties are in virtual equipose . The ideological sorting-out of the two parties since the 1960s has in turn led to extreme partisan polarization, a decline in ticket-splitting and and in number of genuine swing voters. Among other things, this has led to an atmosphere where Republicans have paid little or no price for the extremism theyve disproportionately exhibited, or for the bad conduct of their leaders, most notably the 45th president.
Indeed, the polarized climate encourages outlandish and immoral base mobilization efforts of the sort Trump deployed so regularly. Some Republicans partisans shook their heads sadly and voted the straight GOP ticket anyway, And to the extent there were swing voters they tended strongly to believe that both parties were equally guilty of excessive partisanship, and/or that all politicians are worthless scum, so why not vote for the worthless scum under whom the economy hummed?
The bottom line is that anyone who assumes Republicans are in irreversible decline in presidential elections really hasnt been paying attention.
Republicans Set To Rebound Big In 2022 Midterms Unless
We are just 600 short days away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it is the perfect time to handicap the Republicans chances to win back the House, Senate and prepare a serious challenge to President Biden
Patrick Joseph ToomeyBlack women look to build upon gains in coming electionsWatch live: GOP senators present new infrastructure proposalSasse rebuked by Nebraska Republican Party over impeachment vote already have Democrats scrambling to flip those seats in much easier electoral terrain.
As I noted in The Hill last month, Republicans are on the hook to defend 20 of their seats in 2022, while Team Blue has just 14 seats to hold, all in states won by Joe Biden in 2020. Since March is a perfect month for sports analogies, a good defense provides for a strong offense when the status quo is Democrats retaining control of the upper chamber. While there is clearly a power in incumbency, FiveThirtyEight suggests that senate vacancies are actually more of a mixed bag. In election cycles since 1974, the party with the most Senate retirements has actually gained seats just as often as it has lost them. For every year like 2008, when more Republicans than Democrats retired and Republicans lost seats accordingly, theres a year like 2012, when a whopping seven Democrats retired yet the party picked up two Senate seats.
How these various Rs play out in the next few months will determine if the Rs are successful in 2022.
Rising Violent Crime Is Likely To Present A Political Challenge For Democrats In 2022
But there are roadblocks to fully enacting Democrats’ agenda. Their thin majorities in both chambers of Congress mean nearly all Democrats have to get on board with every agenda item in order to push through major legislative priorities. And without adjusting or eliminating the legislative filibuster in the Senate, Democrats need 10 Republicans to join them for various legislation a near-impossible task.
Renewable Energy And Health Care Among The Sectors That Could Get Shakeup Due To Midterms
The 2022 midterm elections are already affecting Washington, and the results could shake up sectors such as renewable energy, health care and finance.
As Democrats in Washington work to deliver on infrastructure spending and other priorities, theyre trying to make progress in large part because of a key event thats still more than a year away.
That event is the midterm elections on Nov. 8, 2022, when Republicans will aim to take back control of the House and Senate and become a more powerful check on the priorities of President Joe Biden and his fellow Democrats.
What leaders are thinking about, particularly since we have unified party control, is that these midterm elections are inevitably a referendum on the governing party, said Sarah Binder, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution and a professor of political science at George Washington University in Washington, D.C.
In that sense, shrinking time coupled with What is it that Democrats want to run on? it adds pressure on Democrats to get their priorities through the door.
Time is growing short, Binder said, because party leaders often avoid making their members vote on tough issues in the same calendar year as an election, since that can hurt incumbents in tight races. Party leaders often think primarily about what they can get done in the first year of a Congress, as opposed to counting on the second year, she said.
Sectors that could win or lose
Year
Races worth watching
Can Democrats Avoid A Wipeout In 2022
Bidens plan: Go big or go home.
The good news for Democrats who watched Joe Biden unveil a historically ambitious agenda last night is that newly elected presidents have almost always passed some version of their core economic planparticularly when their party controls both congressional chambers, as Bidens does now.
The bad news: Voters have almost always punished the presidents party in the next midterm election anyway. The last two times Democrats had unified controlwith Bill Clinton in 199394 and Barack Obama in 200910they endured especially resounding repudiations in the midterms, which cost Clinton his majority in both chambers and Obama the loss of the House.
Theres a very different strategy this time, David Price, a Democratic representative from North Carolina and a former political scientist, told me. Theres an openness now to the sense that a bolder plan, ironically, might have greater appeal for independents and others we need to attract than trying to trim and split the difference with Republicans.
Read: The GOP cheat code to winning back the House
There is this recognition of this moment and how fleeting it is, and an evaluation that, absent the trifecta of control, it is very hard to move big policy, said a senior official at one of the partys leading outside advocacy groups, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategizing. So you have to take your shot. I think thats part of what undergirds Go big.
What If Republicans Win The Midterms
March 3, 2018
WASHINGTON A sizable portion of the American population has been convulsing with outrage at President Trump for more than a year. Millions of people who previously took only mild interest in politics have participated in protests, fumed as they stayed riveted to news out of Washington and filled social media accounts once devoted to family updates and funny videos with furious political commentary.
Yet public life on the whole has remained surprisingly calm. A significant factor in keeping the peace has surely been anticipatory catharsis: The widespread expectations of a big Democratic wave in the coming midterm elections are containing and channeling that indignation, helping to maintain order.
What will happen if no such wave materializes and that pressure-relief valve jams shut?
The country was already badly polarized before the plot twist of election night in 2016, of course, but since then liberals and much of what remains of Americas moderate center have been seething in a way that dwarfs the usual disgruntlement of whichever faction is out of power. While nobody can know for sure whether Mr. Trump would have lost but for Russias meddling, many of his critics clearly choose to believe he is in the White House because Vladimir Putin tricked the United States into making him its leader.
This November, if the wave turns out to be a mere trickle, we could see the accomplishment of that goal take hold.
Poll: Republicans Set To Win House Back In Massive Landslide
Republicans are set to win back the House in a historic landslide in 2022, according to a poll conducted by NBC News.
Based on all factors, youd have to consider Republicans the early favorites for the House majority in 2022, poll tracker David Wasserman NBC.
Democrats best hope is that Bidens approval rating stays above 50 percent and that Republicans have a tougher time turning out their voters without Trump on the ballot.
reports: The NBC report cites the all-too-predictable trend of the presidents party losing House seats in midterm elections, Democrats choosing not to run for reelection in some cases, and Republicans reaping the benefits of increased online donations, which are now on par with those of Democrats.
It is early, too early, to guarantee the Democrats loss of their slim 220-212 House majority. Voters wont hit the polls for almost 15 months, and things often have a way of changing on a dime in the world of politics. But the early signs certainly arent encouraging for the Democrats, especially as President Joe Bidens approval rating has taken a hit in recent weeks. American voters are being bombarded with images of a completely bungled withdrawal of Afghanistan and headlines about increased COVID hospitalizations and deaths. Inflation is also becoming a growing concern each month, contrary to the hopes of the Federal Reserve, and the crisis at the southern border shows no signs of abating.
Colwell: Republicans Are Likely To Win Control Of The House Next Year But
Three reasons why Republicans are very likely to take control of the House next year involve things over which Democrats have little or no control.
There is, however, one reason why Democrats might be able somehow to hang on to their slim majority. And they do have better prospects of at least holding on to the 50-50 Senate tie.
Reasons for Republicans winning control of the House:
FIRST: History is on their side. The party out of the White House almost always makes big gains in the first midterm election in a new presidency. In those midterm elections since the end of World War II, the average loss for the presidents party has been 29 seats. Democrats lost 63 seats in the 2010 midterm after election of President Barack Obama. Republicans lost 40 seats in the 2018 midterm after election of Donald Trump.
Because Democrats already lost seats in 2020, even as Joe Biden won the presidency, Republicans need only a net of five seats to win the majority. Democrats cant go back to 2020 to win more seats.
Factors in midterm losses for the presidents party include voters wanting a check on the president and disillusionment over any presidents inability to bring about everything voters hoped for.
SECOND: Redistricting after the census will result in many more safe Republican seats. Thats because Republicans control state legislatures in far more states than do Democrats. Both parties gerrymander. But it is the GOP controlling district drawing in many more states.
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Republicans In Decent Shape To Win House Majority In 2022
Washington Examiner
It is never preferable to be in the minority party in a legislative body. But as far as minorities go, House Republicans are in a pretty good spot.
Between the trend of midterm elections usually the party that is not in the White House, a closely divided House, and a party apparatus ready to continue their expectations-exceeding 2020 strategy while Democrats rework theirs, Republicans are on track to winning back the House in 2022.
“It has the makings of what could be a good year for the Republicans when it comes to the House,” said J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
President Bidens approval rating is around 53%, and while he is not underwater, history indicates he would need to bump that rating up by at least 10 points in order to have a shot at gaining seats. Gallup analysis found that even presidents with approval ratings of 50% during the midterm elections averaged a loss of about 14 House seats from their own party.
That would be enough to bump Republicans back into the majority. Democrats have the slimmest House majority since 1930, currently 221 seats to 210 GOP seats .
Republicans in the 2020 cycle shattered the expectations of analysts who forecasted Democrats to gain House seats in 2020. Not a single Republican incumbent lost the election, and they picked off 13 incumbent Democrats.
But it is not all smooth sailing for Republicans.
Why We Arent Going To Panic
We should all have our eyes wide open as we inch closer to the 2022 Midterms, but by no means should we give up hope. There are plenty of reasons why we can win the midterms.
For starters, Democrats appear to be quite awake to how dangerous the Republican party has become in just the past few years. And since the Republicans dont appear to be any less radicalized with Trump out of the party, I dont think Democrats are going to go back to sleep.
At this point in the election cycle, we dont have a full picture of who is retiring from Congress or who the candidates will be for these seats. Getting great candidates for crucial, must-win seats can energize voters and donors.
Presidential approval seems to have an important effect on midterms and at this point, Bidens approval rating is 15 points higher than his disapproval. If he continues to do good things for Americans and keep his approval rating high, that will help the Democrats a lot.
So, lets approach this midterm as clearly as possible: Our democracy is still on the line, and as awful as the Republicans are, they are in striking position to win back some power in Congress. Each of us needs to do everything we can to ensure that does not happen. If you arent already, consider subscribing to Political Charge as Ill be delving into specific actions we can take every month!
If you want to win the midterms, please share this post with others who want to win, too!
Republicans Will Likely Take Control Of The Senate By 2024
The usual midterm House losses by the White House party dont always extend to the Senate because only a third of that chamber is up for election every two years and the landscape sometimes strongly favors the presidential party . But there a still generally an out-party wave that can matter, which is why Republicans may have a better than average chance of winning in at least some of the many battleground states that will hold Senate elections next year . If they win four of the six youll probably be looking at a Republican Senate.
But its the 2024 Senate landscape that looks really promising for the GOP. Democrats will be defending 23 seats and Republicans just 10. Three Democratic seats, and all the Republican seats, are in states Trump carried twice. Four other Democratic seats are in states Trump won once. It should be a banner year for Senate Republicans.
Balance Of Power: 2022 Senate Races
If Democrats want to win the again, they need to win the four competitive seats they currently hold Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. That or augment any loss with a gain in any of their three competitive targets Pennsylvania, , or North Carolina.
This Senate preview still holds up, but the shorter version is Democrats are easily favored in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. They should also win New Hampshire if Chris Sununu doesnt run .
The thing is, theyre also favored to win in Pennsylvania, where they have a strong field of primary candidates and where Joe Biden won.
They have to be no worse than, and admittedly probably better than, a tossup in Wisconsin, where Republicans have candidate issues and Democrats have a strong likely nominee.
So even if New Hampshire goes Republican because of some local candidate factors, Democrats are in a good spot to win the Senate again.
That means if youre trying to make a bet, you can essentially box out two of four combinations where the GOP wins the Senate, and focus your attention on the two remaining options, if youre looking for the values.
The 1858 Midterm Election
November 2, 1858
There is always a lull after a tempest, and so the political world has subsided into an unwonted calm since the election, commented a reporter for The New York Times. The Republicans are naturally . . . exultant over their sweeping victories. Such a commentary might apply to any number of elections, but this reporter described the outcome of a particularly historic electionthe midterm election of 1858. The Republican success that year was especially remarkable because the Republican Party was only four years old.
Almost by spontaneous combustion, the Republican Party burst forth in 1854 in response to the controversial Kansas-Nebraska Act. For decades, Americas political battles had been fought between the Democrats and the Whigs. By the early 1850s, however, the issue of slavery had splintered the Whigs into warring factions and divided Democrats between north and south. When Democratic senator Stephen Douglas pushed his Kansas-Nebraska bill to passage, including its proposal to settle the issue of slavery by popular sovereignty, the uproar among northern abolitionists and anti-slavery activists was too fierce to be contained by the ailing Whig Party. As one person commented, The Whigs were simply not angry enough.
The Future Could Actually Be Bright For Republicans
Ed Kilgore
The most common political narrative outside MAGA-land is that the Republican Party is screwed, and richly deserves the ignominious future it faces.
Until recently the GOP was a reasonably normal and intermittently successful center-right political party, not wildly different from its counterparts in other countries with a two-party system, despite some racist and militarist habits that burst into view in times of stress. But then America elected a Black president, and Republicans went a little crazy, according to those outside their circles. First they abetted a destructively antediluvian Tea Party Movement and then lurched into the arms of an evil charlatan who somehow got elected president and spent four years trashing hallowed conservative principles and losing both Congress and the White House before his disgraceful and violence-inflected departure.
Worse yet, in the face of huge demographic challenges that beg for a new approach, the Republican Party has now lashed itself to a Trumpian mast going forward, following the most consistently unpopular president in American history in his bizarre crusade to deny he has ever lost anything. Meanwhile a shockingly united Democratic Party is whipping a few decades worth of liberal legislation through Congress as Republicans whine about cancel culture and try to sell the idea that Joe Biden is actually Che Guevara.
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