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Doing the maths: Grian's failure at getting a mending book
lots of talk about maths and probabilities below the cut! but there's a graph and simple explanation at the end if you want to get the gist of it and are bad at maths.
(I am still young and learning maths, critique/advice always welcomed)
What are the odds of getting a mending book in Minecraft?
(I am assuming Grian has been doing all his fishing with Luck of the Sea 3)
The probability of a mending book is actually a bit annoying to estimate. The Minecraft Wiki lists fishing up an enchanted book as 1.9% chance. This is for ANY enchanted book. The Minecraft wiki talks about how the chance of an enchantment being selected is calculated. Mending has a weight of 2. Using the table, mending has a probability of 2/135.
However, Grian is looking for any book with mending, not just a pure mending book. Additional enchantments are calculated in a different way, involving RNG, which means it won't be as easy to model. Due to this reason, I'll just be using the odds for a pure mending book throughout.
TLDR: a mending book has a 0.028..% chance (2/135*0.019*100)
Grian's Data
According to this screenshot, Grian has used a fishing rod 5679 times. This number may not be fully accurate, as it includes the times he's fished other players, rather than just fished for items, but it is a good estimate.
To help visualise this data, with a median waiting time between catches of 17.5 seconds, Grian has spent over 20 hours fishing so far! He may have a problem.
Is this statistically significant?
Hypothesis testing (p-value approach):
H0: p = 19/67500 (the null hypothesis - he has no mending books because of chance)
H1: p < 19/67500 (the alternate hypothesis - he has no mending books due to different odds)
5679 trials, 0 mending books
X ~ B(5679, 19/67500) (binomial distribution, 5679 tries with a probability of a mending book being 19/67500, where X is the number of mending books)
p(X=0) (what is the probability the number of mending books being 0)
p = 0.2021473392
Now, the point at which data becomes significant is subjective. For instance, you *could* get a million heads in a row flipping a coin, it's not impossible, but at a certain point, you can begin to say "okay there's something not normal about this". For this approach, the closer the p-value is to 0, the more evidence there is against the null hypothesis . The p-value here is far above a significance level of 0.01, or 0.05, or 0.1. There isn't a clear line between significant/non-significant, but this is answer is quite a bit far from 0
With this, I cannot reject the null hypothesis.
Personal conclusion: this is not statistically significant, Grian is just unlucky.
Are other values statistically significant?
Gem's proposed 9000: results in a p-value of 0.079... more significant than Grian's number but I don't imagine Mojang would be too concerned. As said though, it's all subjective.
I am bad at maths, what does all this mean?
Here is a graph, showing what number of mending books you might have after 5679 tries. The height of the bar represents the probability of getting that amount. The numbers at the top are the (rounded) numbers I used in my calculation
The pink column is 0 mending books - like what Grian has! As you can see, it is less likely than getting 1 or 2 books, but not too uncommon to happen.
End conclusion: Grian has bad luck. Like, not as hilariously bad as he thinks, but still bad. If he keeps going, chances are he will get a mending book, but I think he should probably stop fishing because at this point he has a problem.
#if you saw my last post no you didnt#<- misread “5679 fishing rods used” as having fully used up 5679 fishing rods#this is so much better written than my last post though. and i think the graph helps a lot#long post#locus fandom time#locus maths time#grian#hermitcraft#hermitblr#hermitcraft 10#“why the p value approach” i missed the lesson for it so this is my catch up work unironically
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found this post on my drafts from like 2 days after the game released bc i forgot to post it and it aged like shit bc everything i see in the tag now is just jeff fanart. not that im complaining
#if you saw my last post no you didnt#i just hadnt gone thru the itp tag yet#i apologize for ever doubting ppls need for wet cat characters#but i gotta admit yall took your time (like 4 days)#into the pit#into the pit jeff
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FUCK WRONG BLOG
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fuck it here's the old bapweaver comic:
the one time baptiste managed to render niran speechless!
#overwatch#ow#bapweaver#lifeweaver#baptiste#i love them<3#this comic is from last year and i didnt post it bc i didnt like it#but i saw it yesterday and i was like. you know what. im posting it.#feed the bapweavee stans#classic pressing your love interest into a tight space when hiding from an adversary trope#my art#ps dont ask where his petals went. idk NKFJEKFD
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one of my favorite things about zedaph is that on a server full of people that find strange and oft-overlooked minecraft mechanics or rare events and then see just how far they can push them in the name of spectacle or efficiency or world-breaking, zed is over here finding these mechanics in order to do the weirdest things he can think of in as entertaining a manner as possible
like i 100% have faith in zedaph's theoretical ability to be just as efficient or spectacular or world-breaking. if he wanted to do that stuff, i trust that he absolutely could. but thats so far from being his priority. instead, hes going to spend around a week of irl time focused entirely on eventually having the good luck to spawn in something insanely rare so that he can convert it into something even rarer, the result of which being something that 99% of the server reacts with complete and utter shock that it even exists in the first place, just because its zany and funny and he wanted to. and i love that
#zedaph#hermitcraft#genuinely i adore the clucky few project im not even done watching the episode and i had to pause and make this post#i saw impulses video first and went ''that HAS to be some sort of datapack or something-''#only to immediately go ''no. no it cant be. because this is zed#and its practically a trademark of his to push the limits of the game as far as possible in the direction least expected#not for the purpose of efficiency or spectacle or intimidation or whatever like some players who push limits#but purely for the purpose of making something so funny you cant help but laugh at whats going on#and maybe being a bit impressed that he ever thought of it in the first place''#at which point i went ''holy shit. since its zed doing this. somehow he ACTUALLY got a villager on a chicken. with no cheats. thats INSANE'#i was relieved when i checked my subscriptions to see what the next video i had to watch was and saw he would be next in line#bc if i had to sit through 19 other hermits videos before i could watch his and find out what the fuck he was doing i would have been so sa#sidenote but i feel like a zed video where he interacts with this many other people all in the same video is so rare#idk i didnt watch season 9 and i know he started collabing a lot more w/ other hermits then#so maybe its not nearly as rare these days#but like the last one that *i* saw where he interacted with this many people at once was towards the end of season 8#when all the people he experimented on earlier in the season came back to experiment on him#and like i would like zeds videos with or without the collabs. but its a lot of fun to see him interact with people#so its very cool to me when he does it with a lot of people all in the same video
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The one piece reread only makes the hardest moments hit even harder,,,, even when you’re rereading it poorly in portugese
Or AKA, i found out today that HINATA SHOYO reads one piece and I haven’t recovered since
#one piece#haikyuu#hinata shoyo#roronoa zoro#(kinda)#omfg okay time for my entirely SEPERATE POST IN THE TAGS#i only got into one piece at the end of last year... but ive been in the anime and manga scene for like. my entire life#i cannot understate how WILD it is that I havent noticed how everywhere one piece is....#like once i read it... i started finding it EVERYWHERE#my sister gifted me an issue of shonen jump ages ago cause i liked act age and kimetsu no yaiba chainsaw man promised neverland etc#and it doesnt have like a one piece chapter in it actually (to my disappointment)#but IT DOES HAVE A LIL ADVERTISING SEGMENT AT THE FRONT TALKING ABOUT OKIKU FIGURINES AND OTHER ONE PIECE CRAP#AND IDK IT LITERALLY JUST BLEW MY MIND#ONE PIECE DIDNT EXIST IN MY LIFE BUT.... IT DID????#I HAD ONE PIECE MERCH BEFORE I EVEN BECAME OBSESSED WITH IT??? (hahah if you can consider a tiny segment mentioning okiku op merch XD)#just imagine suddenly being obsessed with a piece of media. and then you look around ur room and U SUDDENLY RECOGNISE A CHARACTER MERCH???#ITS BEEN IN UR ROOM FOR YEARS BUT YOUVE NEVER REALLY EVEN NOTICED IT OR JUST BRUSHED IT OFF WHENEVR U SAW IT#BUT ITS THAT CHARACTER!!!! ITS THAT MEDIA THAT UR MADLY IN LOVE WITH????#also im being 100 percent legit when i say that the sense of comeraderie i feel when someone says theyve ALSO read one piece#is insane#discovering that domics and worthiikids and all these other big youtubers that ive known for years have loved one piece like me?#it makes my heart clench and my eyes water man#ive never felt so connected to the world... one piece really is peak fiction.....#i love one piece's community sm....
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HE'S IN A CAAAGGGEEE
#if you saw me post this last night no you didnt#i had forgotten to put my name thingy again but was too sleepy to do it lmao#chonny jash#angelo tag#anyways cage is my favorite song in this album#very good#tbh i dont listen to this album as much as the other ones BUT its the first power hour soooo#automatically iconic for me
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Let her cook 😭🙏
Webtoons - Comicfury
#If you saw me post this last night NO YOU DIDNT!!!#art#myart#artwork#asks#procreate#original character#oc#artists on tumblr#Ignore how inconsistent the piano is lmfao#I used literally one reference for it 😭#I’m surprised it turned out better then I thought it would AHAJSHSJSH#Firefly Foundations#Robyn#Oak#Ginger#scheduled#my comics#my comic#comic#webcomic#webtoon
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"I think this is the most inhuman; and human, that I've ever felt.." MUCH CAN HAPPEN IN A YEAR. IN FIVE YEARS. A DECADE. imagine how much can happen in a century. just ONE (1). How will you grow? what phases do you find? even in 5 years, you will find patterns.
#jrwi fanart#jrwi show#jrwi suckening#jrwi suckening spoilers#jrwi the suckening#arthur bennett#HEY SO THE REALLY FUNNY THING THAT THE CHARACTER DID THAT SEEMED RLY SILLY N GOOFY IN THE MOMENT?#LIKE THE WHIPLASH BETWEEN SERIOUS N SILLY ALMOST PISSED YOU OFF? WHAT IF I FOUND A WAY TO MAKE YOU SAD ABOUT IT#this was meant to be a scribble that would be a bigger part of a bigger page.might leave it on that page.#but still. bc o that i nearly posted it onto my wacky side blog.BUT NAYY I SPENT TOO MUCH TIME N ENERGY N YOU GOTTA SEE IT#ARTHUR BENNETT DRIVES ME CRAZY. I FEEL LIKE ITS ODD FOR HIM TO BE SO TECHNOLOGICALLY OUT OF TOUCH#WHERE HAS HE BEEN. HAS HE BEEN IN WAR? IS THAT WHERE MAGNUS CAME FROM? WHERE WAS HE WHEN HE WAS WITH EDWARDS CREW?#ARTHURRR I HAVE QUESTIONS ARTTHUUURR!! HEY CAN I ALSO ASK; WHAT THE FUCK HAVE YOU BECOME#DO YOU THINK HE HAD ANY IDEA HE WOULD VEER CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE MONSTER HE DESPISES. ALL BC HE DESERVES IT. OR WATEVER#HE FASCINATES ME SO MUCH. TO LOOK AT THE STONE COLD STOIC FOOL FROM THE START OF THE SHOW#AND TO FIND OUT THAT HE USED TO BE A BAD BOY.. A DELINQUENT... A LIL PRANKSTER.... MY GODDD THATS ADORABLE#I WOULD LOVE TO KNOW MORE.... BUT I DOUBT THE LAST EPISODE IS GONNA ANSWER THOSE QUESTIONS..i love arthur bennett so much....#AS FOR THE ART!! i mostly used the fire alpaca watercolor brush. tbh im not a brush guy. anti aliased default pen tends to be my main game#but LATELY IM SQQQUIRMIN OUT OF AN ARTBLOCK so expirimenting like this is helping#DONT LOOK TOO HARD AT IT!! im still proud tho. colors are fun :3 im also very proud of the backgrounds#I LOVE THE CARTOON THING where the background looks all fancy n painted but the characters are solid colors#what else can i ramble abt. OH YEAH. i looked up the bikes to make sure they were time accurate tehehehe. 1913 to 2012.#almost a century apart!! isnt that neat? ALSO FUUUCK CAN I JUST MAKE A QUICK CONFESSION. DOWN HERE IN MY TAGS.#only the strongest can read my tags anwyay. SO I REALIZED WHY I LOVE ARTHUR SO MUCH. TIME IS A FLAT CIRCLE#while arthur is a Stoic and Cool vampire w a knack for being playful/silly; who alsos been alive fora century thus witnessing HORRORs#THERE HAPPENS TO BE A ROBOT FROM A BAND W A TITANIUM ALLOY SPINAL COLLUMN#WHOS A Stoic and Cool ROBOT w a knack for being playful/silly; who alsos been alive fora century thus witnessing HORRORS#the fuckkkiiinnngggnn The Spine from steam powered giraffe. WHATEVER. i cant escape from my heart. i guess.#i think The Spine and Arthur could be friends. Arthur saw the band perform back when they were the Steam Man Band#EDIT: WOOPS I DIDNT REALIZE THIS WOULD END UP IN THE SPG TAG. HI GUYS DIDNT KNOW U WERE STILL ALIVE SORREE 4 THE CROSS CONTAMINATION
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i havent actually been up to much other than drawing ocs and a secret project but umm this is old i really need to draw something new..... i might knuckle down and do requests
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Nami for the One Piece art collab on Twitter!! 🍊
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figuring out faces
#my art#frogwares holmes#frogwares sherlock holmes#sherlock holmes chapter one#sherlock holmes the awakened#< since watson is there#if you saw me post part of this for a split second last night NO U DIDNT
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( they went for the surprise kiss goodbye at the same time )
#umm if you saw me post this earlier no you didnt because i definitely had my blog hidden from tags and im reposting it lel#my art#serirei#reigen arataka#serizawa katsuya#couldnt get this out of my head and i lost valuable sleep drawing this last night so please have it#r
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fun fact the word "dirk" sounds exactly like the root of the croatian verb "drkati" which means to jack off
get the dirk brush here
#homestuck#hs#hom3stuck#home24uck#home2t4ck#dirk strider#self#admin draws#fanart#yeah like idk anymroe#TTAC#assorted. dortles. that ive been forgettting to post#sigh i gotta be real! i saw a post comparing the common reblog to like ratio in 2014 vs now#and i noticed the same pattern applies to my art obviously ofdkgjjg of there being like a lot fewer rbs than there are likes#and its been kind of a thorn in my eye looking at my notifs the last few days. hence i wasnt very motivated to post#cause its like figure out how to group stuff together for posting so its mutually related then format tag and bla bla bla#anyways i wasnt feeling it#i think my exams are affecting me too s well as pms so like dont mind me too much#i didnt wanna whinge in a separate post but its been eating at me a little so. compromise#i wanted to do a separate one thanking the ppl who consistently leave tags because i do see you! and i appreciate you so much#i have to resist the urge to reply to them lolol thats a lot more overbearing sounding than just replying under posts or to comments on twt#sorry 4 no fun tags this time around. hopefully the fact is fun enough.#also til you can just. add a hyperlink to a word by highlighting it and doing ctrl+v. crayzey
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watchers allways watching
#if you saw me acidentaly post this on my other blog no u didnt#grian#grian fanart#grianmc#hermitcraft grian#grian hermitcraft#hermitblr#hermitcraft#hermitcraft s10#hc s10#hermitcraft season 10#hermitcraft fanart#hermitcraft smp#traffic smp#trafficblr#traffic series#traffic life#life series#third life#last life#life series smp#double life#limited life#catified#secret life#art#digital drawing#digital painting#digital art#digital illustration
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making myself an hms page (still a wip) so i can stay semi consistent but i wanted to compare it to the last time i did that
exactly one year difference!!! (september 2023-september 2024). very proud of myself for getting this far tbh,,, wonder what my art will look like in another year 😋
(can you tell that ive refused to learn to draw shoes properly...shhhh)
#also wanted to make a post to ramble in the tags#how the fuck did cj see that last drawing i posted dude what#i didnt put hashtags???#or tag him???#im flabbergasted#bamboozled even#woke up from a nap and saw he retweeted but i fell back asleep#bc i thought i imagined it 🤦🏽#like sir what are you doing here lmao???#uhm will not be tagging this but goodnight reader!#well ill put my tag alneifnen#angelo tag
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