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accirax · 6 months ago

Note

I think I remember you making a theory about who would die and when in Eden’s Garden. Now that the title of chapter 1 has been revealed, (and the title usually at least loosely relates to the themes/victim/culprit of the chapter), have your options on who might bite the dust this chapter changed?

Project: Eden's Garden Chapter 1 Killer/Victim Theory

Ooh, an Eden's Garden ask! It's been a while since I've gotten to talk about this game, so, thanks :D

Funnily enough, the inciting incident of this ask isn't actually real. I haven't made a full death prediction for P:EG, mostly because of how little information we have as to the characters' full personalities and, perhaps more importantly, their bonds with each other. Your memory might be a combination of my mastermind ranking (and its update), that one time I rambled about different fangan writing styles (including the logic behind a first victim), and some off-the-wall speculation about what a ch2 victim Eva might look like in another meta discussion post mostly focused on DRDT. I made some offhand comments about potential victims and killers (especially in the early game) in all of those posts, so given my history of discussing DRDT's death order, I can see how that post might have formulated in your mind. Alas, it does not actually exist.

Still, with the first chapter of P:EG coming out soon (ish), I'd be delighted to spare some speculations as to who might be on the chopping block for the first chapter, least! My usual apologies for this taking so long, but this time, I also wanted to replay the prologue since I was kind of hazy on what actually happened in it. However, this extensive writing period has given me additional time to think of what I want to say, and hopefully come up with a convincing theory as to what may happen.

(Spoilers for Trigger Happy Havoc, SDR2, and V3, as well as some very minor spoilers for SDRA2 Chapter 2. You only need to worry about them if you wanted to go into SDRA2 completely blind.)

The Title

The first step here is obviously to take a deep dive into what the title could actually mean or imply. I keep wanting to think that the title refers to death, but that phrase is "beyond the veil," not "beneath the veil." "Beneath the veil," as far as I can tell, isn't a commonly recurring phrase. Plus, it's not like saying that there's going to be a death in this chapter is anything mind blowing, nor does it help us narrow down who would die.

So, let's take a step back. "Beneath the veil" implies that somebody is hiding something, because there's a piece of fabric concealing their face, and therefore their true intentions. However, it's not necessarily a super successful concealment, because (according to a quick google search) most veils are transparent. The character(s) this title refers to may only be partially concealing their hypocrisy from the group, as opposed to being fully undercover. Notably, veils are often (in Western culture, at least) associated with weddings. The choice of the word "veil" could implicate our local Matchmaker as the beholder of the hypocrisy.

Speaking of hypocrisy, I think that's the key word in this title that can help us pin down the central characters and themes of this chapter. As defined by the Merriam-Webster dictionary, hypocrisy is "a feigning to be what one is not or believe what one does not, especially the false assumption of an appearance of virtue or religion." In simpler terms, it's lying about or double-crossing something that you believe in to make it look like you have the moral high ground.

Therefore, in order for a character to fit the themes of this chapter, they have to have something they're actually hypocritical about. Take Ulysses, for example. In what way is he pretending to be better than the others around him? What core beliefs has the game shown us that he has that could be weaponized against others? I don't yet see anything compelling, and therefore, he might not be super important to this chapter.

Combining the title with the way the prologue ended, I definitely think that this first chapter is going to be about Damon's point of view being proven correct. Meanwhile, the rest of the students will secretly struggle with morality and their desire to kill while pretending that everything's cool. You know, like how most killing games start! (Other than the protag being such a downer.) It'll be interesting to presumably witness this typical group dynamic from the perspective of an outsider. Being someone who's used to tearing others' arguments apart, I wonder if Damon could be better than the average person at finding the hidden meanings and opinions behind others' words. I just think it'd be super funny if he were listening in on a breakfast conversation and it was just like--

Ingrid: Keep your chins up, everybody! If we can keep our heads on straight and trust in one another, I'm sure we'll start figurin' out how to get out of here! Damon: ("We'll start," implying that no progress has been made thus far. Combined with that if clause, Ingrid's frustrations that no one is thinking clearly and she's found no one to trust become obvious.) Eloise: Right...! It's like my dad always said: "in union, there is strength." I'm sure he'd be happy to hear that all of us are on the same page. I wish I could tell him... Damon: (Sounds like someone has been obsessing over the thought of going home.) Wolfgang: There's no need to worry, Eloise. I won't let any of the despicable killers in this academy keep us from our families. You can count on me. Damon: (Jesus Christ.)

Anyways, victims and culprits! I'll be discussing the top 5 most likely students that I can see filling each role.

The Killers

As much as I'd like to talk about the culprits second for the sake of drama, it'll be a lot easier for me to talk about potential blackeneds first. I think I've said this somewhere on this blog before, but who a victim is really depends on who the killer is. After all, the victim was only targeted because of the killer's rationale. A victim can be random, but a killer is pretty much never random. So, who could be filling our first blackened spot?

#5: Diana

Despite her placement as #5-- AKA, above 11 other students that I won't be talking about in a role as the killer at all-- I actually don't really like putting Diana here. To me, her fears and hopes for the future read as genuine. And, while a character who starts off fully sipping the hope Kool Aid can obviously come to murder in the end, for Diana, I don't think it would happen so fast. If she isn't secretly evil, I think it would take at least one murder to make her crack under pressure.

However, I can't argue that Diana has a compelling argument for the title of hypocrite. Simply put, she's the character in the prologue who seems most invested in everyone working together and being friends, without any personal power-seeking agendas. Therefore, if the veil in question is that of promoting friendship, Diana would be the most extreme example to use to prove the point that friendship in Eden's Garden Academy (at this point in time) is a fruitless endeavor.

#4: Wenona

After discussing my reasons for suspecting Diana, Wenona might come as a surprise. Does she really fit the theme? Out of all of the characters who could be hiding behind a guise of teamwork and being a good person, is she really the best fit?

Well, while I think it's likely that the main crux of the hypocrisy this chapter will be about remaining unified and trusting one another, that theme can always be interpreted in multiple ways at once. We could have characters who are hypocritically pretending to be nice while harboring ill intentions, and characters who are hypocritically pretending to be meaner than they are looking down on the nice folks while secretly being soft inside.

That's more of what I'm getting at with Wenona. If she were the blackened, I think the hypocrisy would be "pretending to be strong and better than other people while actually being just as weak as the rest of them." As the Ultimate Entrepreneur, Wenona seems to take a lot of pride in herself and her skills. She has the same sort of snobbish demeanor that Damon has when it comes to assessing the less academic of the talents recruited to Eden's Garden Academy.

Wenona is a cutthroat genius when it comes to social politics and financial practices. Even if this killing game wasn't in her initial plans, she'll obviously be able to crush it. She isn't trapped in here with Tozu; Tozu is trapped in here with her. That's what she wants everyone to think.

But, if she does become the blackened... how much of that attitude is really real? I'm imagining a scenario in which Wenona's reason for killing is less "fuck this shit I'm out" and more genuine fear for losing her life at the hands of the killing game and/or never returning to her regular life. When asked why she killed the victim, she tries to fake ruthlessness, but in the face of her execution, the clear truth is that she was just afraid of dying. Thus, Wenona would spend the majority of the daily life hypocritically sneering at the "weaker" students like Toshiko or Diana for not being tough enough to cut it in the killing game, before ultimately proving herself as the weakest link in the end.

#3: Eva

From the Prologue alone, we can already tell that Eva is a character who easily has strong enough opinions to potentially become a hypocrite. But, wait-- wouldn't her killing someone actually line up perfectly with the argument she made?

How is that hypocrisy?

Well, although Eva is certainly of the opinion that someone will kill, she acts as if she's above it herself. If it's been a while since you've seen the Prologue, that could be easy to forget. However, after she makes her initial statement that someone here will kill because they have too much to lose, she starts talking about how pretending that everything is fine will only make people more vulnerable to being killed. She directly accuses Wolfgang of doing this purposefully in order to better his own chances of succeeding as a blackened.

Most of her statements use the pronoun "you," which, whether referring to anyone in the group or Wolfgang specifically, does not include Eva herself. You, Wolfgang, are making a mistake that will lead others towards their deaths, murders that will happen by your guys' hands. Me, though...? (I'm tight as fuck!!!)

After criticizing Wolfgang so harshly, Eva would be the biggest hypocrite if she was actually the one to be the first killer. Even though Eva was doing the other students a favor by telling them the harsh truth, she did so in a way that put herself above them. She's let everyone know that she's smarter than them for immediately seeing straight through the killing game, and for not falling for Wolfgang's obvious manipulation tactics. If the rest of the students then learned that Eva played directly into the killing game's hands by becoming its first killer, I think they'd have every right to call her a hypocrite.

As for Eva and Damon, I think that making Eva the first killer could be really interesting for Damon's character. That's because, whether he'd admit to it or not, I think that Damon does align with Eva more than anyone else at this point. They were working together to promote the idea that pretending that nothing is wrong is dumb at best and harmful at worst. Damon doesn't seem like the type of protagonist who would be super vehemently against the idea of killing another student himself.

Thus, if Eva did become a killer, it would give him a startling window into what he would look like if he had decided to forsake this academy and kill. Every assertion he's internally made suddenly sounds flaky and desperate when coming out of the mouth of someone on death row. And, now that he's been betrayed by Eva too, why do some of the counterarguments the other students are making against Eva's claims sound more and more legitimate...? I think Eva's death as a killer could be the perfect wake-up call to Damon that his cold and calculating demeanor might not be as perfect of a plan as he acts like it is now.

However, much like Diana, I do think that Eva's reactions are genuine-- in this case, genuinely coming from a place of wanting to save the other students as opposed to wanting them all dead. Even if it would be compelling if Eva turned out to be some massive hypocrite, that doesn't mean that the setup for that being the case is actually there. We've seen so little of all of the characters so far that it's hard to provide textual evidence as to why I think this is the case, so unfortunately we'll just have to rely on my gut feeling. Every day I have to remind myself that it's okay to say "it's just my opinion" in the Just My Opinion essays. Sigh.

#2: Wolfgang

I feel like (as compared to something like DRDT) I have so little of a finger on the pulse of the P:EG community in terms of knowing what's popular opinion and what's not. Is Wolfgang's placement here a surprising take? Are people surprised to see that I have Wolfgang listed as a potential early killer as opposed to a final boss antag/survivor? Are people surprised that he's not #1???

Anyways. Hypocrisy. Wolfgang. It's so obvious that I feel like I don't even need to say it. I mean, I already did say it in this very post. Eva has already called Wolfgang out for hypocritically claiming to protect everyone while actually increasing the odds that someone could be taken advantage of. Wolfgang claims to be a defender of the people, but as soon as he hits the Trial Grounds, he seems to fixate on proving his viewpoint correct over all else. In the Chapter 1 demo (really mild spoilers for that, I guess), the literal last thing we leave off on is Damon calling out Wolfgang for being a hypocrite when it comes to investigating the school. Wolfgang Akire, Ultimate Laywer? Nah, I only know Wolfgang Akire, Ultimate Hypocrite.

Going back to my analysis of how early deaths work (here's the link again if you didn't read/refresh on it before but want to now), if P:EG is a project that wants to make their early deaths out of characters that are really visible, then Wolfgang is perhaps the best choice for that. The only other possible rivals he has in that regard are Damon or Eva.

Given how visible Wolfgang has been, it feels inevitable that this chapter will revolve around his hypocrisy somehow. The question is whether that would result in him dying or not. And, part of that question for me returns to what I mentioned at the beginning: how much does the fandom expect that it would result in him dying?

Make no mistake, this isn't an effort to people please by going along with what most people believe to be true. It's an effort to deduce which option would read as a more surprising and satisfying answer to a mystery posed in this mystery series. If the fandom is really caught up on the idea that "Wolfgang is P:EG's Byakuya/Nagito/Kokichi antag character, and that character MUST make it to the end after opposing the protagonist all the way through!!!", then it would work as a successful subversion to have that character die early, and leave the audience questioning who will come to fill the void in the story that Wolfgang left behind. However, if the audience has already broken free of those expectations and see Wolfgang as someone whose biases and neuroses could easily lead to him snapping early, then actually making him the first killer could turn out kinda boring.

I think I'm of the latter opinion at this point, although I could obviously just be biased in thinking that others share my opinions because my opinions are the main ones I've heard. Even if Wolfgang is a really obvious fandom's favorite edgy antag archetype, I can't deny that there's a lot of really good thematic setup in the Debater vs Lawyer department that I feel like the writers will want to reap the payoff from. It would be a shame to let whatever twisted worldview Wolfgang is cooking on "go to waste" by having him exit the story so early. But, I'm also always a fan of riffing wildly and unexpectedly off of the preconceptions of a killing game that Danganronpa fans have built up in their minds, so I would neither be too surprised nor mind at all if the writers did wind up letting Wolfgang flame out early, as long as they have a plan for what happens next prepared.

#1: Jean

Despite what I was just complaining about in Wolfgang's section, I'm almost certain that this will come as a surprise to people. Does that make me a hypocrite, too? Yay, how thematic!

Jean does not seem like the typical first killer. He's way too silly and entrenched in his theming. He's an oddball character! Accirax, weren't you literally the one who said that oddball characters don't die in Chapter 1?!

Oddballs tend not to die in Chapters 1 or 2. This is because oddball characters are generally created to supply a very niche kind of comedic relief[...] Any character deemed worthy of being included in a fangan occupies one of 16 highly contested slots. So, if you include a character for the purpose of making jokes with them, you'll want to get your bang for your buck! It’s hard to fit every joke you have in mind into only a chapter or two. The best example I could come up with for a (canon) oddball who dies early is Teruteru. In his case, the writers likely anticipated that his hyper-flirtatious nature would get tiring if it continued on for too long, and thus, exhausted all of the jokes they wanted to make in Chapter 1 before his exit. An oddball who dies this early has a limited shelf life, and is likely accompanied by other oddballs who can pick up the comedic slack.

Why, I sure did! Thank you for remembering that one niche argument in a really long post about a completely different series, imaginary person. However, that logic is why I initially wasn't suspicious of Jean either. With a bit of investigation, however, I've landed on him as my most likely choice.

Let's start with the hypocrisy. Although not necessarily the loudest voice on the subject, Jean, too, is someone who has strongly advocated for unity and friendship in the face of the killing game. It was easy for me at least to forget, but he has a bit of a leadership position in the Prologue, a bit behind Wolfgang. Even Damon can surprisingly attest to the command he can wield when he needs to.

It makes sense that, as a Ship Captain, he's all about getting people to work together under his leadership to accomplish amazing feats. Therefore, while not as obvious about it as Diana or Wolfgang, Jean would also be someone who could only commit a murder hypocritically.

Like, you can't just say this and then selfishly try to win the Class Trial to protect your own life. Well, not without speaking from beneath the veil of hypocrisy, anyways.

However, as I just admitted three sentences ago, the argument for Jean fitting the hypocrisy theme is weaker than someone like Diana or Wolfgang. So, what chose me to pick him over those two, or someone else at a similar level? Well, for that, we'll have to go over my...

Project: Eden's Garden Chapter 1 Murder Theory

HA HA! You thought we were merely conducting narrative analysis, but we're taking a look at evidence as well! It is a bold choice to try to predict who the blackened will be based on the murder committed when said murder hasn't even been committed yet, I'm aware. However, it's the choice of location that made me lean towards Jean. And, while it's no guarantee...

... I find it really likely that this will be the site of the murder. It screams murder location to me. Why the hell is there all this water on the floor if it won't be relevant in some way somewhere down the line? It's also locked in as the first area that you investigate closely. This doesn't have to mean that a murder will happen here, obviously-- none of Makoto's classroom, Hajime's beach, or Kaede's classroom become murder locations-- but it still does mean that this location will leave a lasting impact on your mind. The first time you ever get to wield the controls in this fangame is to investigate this room. And investigate it, we did.

I feel like locations that become murder relevant are often investigated in a much more specific way than ones that aren't, especially in cases where aspects of the room are critical to solving the mystery. This often includes them having CGs and/or cutscenes to illustrate the location's functions at work, and potentially be art used for a truth bullet in the future. Off the top of my head, I can remember a couple of times this happened in v3.

To use a fangan example, it also happened at least once in SDRA2.

(translation by Johnny Youngster)

The P:EG basement area was investigated to hell and back during Eva and Damon's first introductions. Like, can't you imagine this being truth bullet art?

Anyways, down in this basement that no innocent student has any good reason to visit, there's a conspicuous vent we've investigated in detail that looks over the Dining Hall, which several students are inclined to visit at various points in the day.

It has gaps in it that are wide enough to see through, and perhaps wide enough to use a weapon through. Even beyond something like a poisoned spear or the like, if you could shoot a gun through these slits, it could be enough to take someone out. Damon has very conveniently already removed one of the grates in the way, which will make it easier for the killer to do their malicious deed, and perhaps even make it easier for them to figure out that they could remove the other vent as well.

Now, it is true that Damon and Eva had to work together in order to reach this vent, which could make it difficult for the killer to utilize. However, it's obviously not impossible. If the killer were tall-- say, six feet tall, an entire half foot taller than Eva-- then it's possible they could access it on their own anyways, especially if they possessed any sort of climbing ability. The killer could also have an accomplice with which to create the same sort of setup Damon and Eva made (although, to Jean's credit, if this were the case, he'd probably be the one on the bottom -> not the one holding the weapon -> not the actual blackened). Or, they could use the cardboard boxes and duct tape that have conveniently already been identified in this room to make some stairs.

Although, that raises a problem, doesn't it? The entire floor of this room is covered in water.

A cardboard box would likely have structural issues if you put it in the water and then tried to stand on it. Maybe it could work if you put several cardboard boxes inside of each other...? Or if you just quickly used them as steps to hop up before fully leaning your weight on the generator. Regardless, we have other problems. Even if Eva has proven that the water won't electrocute you if you step in it, it's still an issue. If you step in the water with your shoes on and then try to quickly flee the scene, you'd leave wet footprints and damning damp ankle evidence behind. You could take your shoes off and roll up your pants like Damon does, but that could cost you precious time.

If only there were someone out there who was already wearing waterproof shoes...

... and maybe even a cloth or sash of some sort to wipe them off with before leaving the room.

Even Jean's character conception makes sense to me from this perspective. For your first chapter, you need a character who can be a kind and friendly leader type whose betrayal will rattle the more friendship-inclined of the group, and you need them to wear waterproof shoes. Leader plus waterproof shoes... well, that could be a ship's captain, couldn't it?

In this case, Jean's oddball nature is actually a boon to him in pretty much all manners. Despite relying so much on the gimmick of "I'm not a pirate!", Jean does seem to have a serious side to him. That duality gives him some clearly articulated character depth, even if it may not be explored much in the main plot. The striking nautical gimmick makes it harder for him to fade into the newly introduced crowd. He's quickly recognizable at a glance, making it easier for the casual viewer to remember him in the long gulf between chapters.

Speaking of being memorable, Jean is placed right in front of the tree when the characters in the Tree of Knowledge room are introduced.

He also stands there before the 0th Class Trial.

(Using this screenshot even though it's blurry just to show that these are different points in time.)

It's not as memorable of a spot as Eva, Grace, Wolfgang, or Toshiko (who go around and introduce themselves with Damon and thus get top billing), or even as Eloise and Desmond (who at least get their own room), but it's still notable. Between my own playthrough and others', I've seen people go around the circle with Ingrid first or Ulysses first, but everyone always talks to Jean right after they enter the room. The dark trunk is a great contrast against Jean's bright orange design, so he's really striking standing against the door. When I think of this room, I know exactly where Jean is, while the others are... somewhere back there. If I'm right, it's a subtle way to make sure that all players have at least some connection to Jean before he dies, and possibly even to make the first post-Trial gathering feel a little emptier with that super-highlighted spot empty.

I do want to touch on the narrative again, though, because that's more important than the murder plan that may or may not just be my own invention. I maintain that, right now, Diana or Wolfgang make more sense as someone who would illustrate the hypocrisy of pretending to be friends while actually murdering for their own purposes. However, depending on how Chapter 1 plays out, I think that Jean could be just as good as them, if not better. There's been some foreshadowing that Jean might take on a leaderly role in the group, but at the moment, it's been pretty focused on Wolfgang alone. However, if Jean starts to take on any sort of leadership position, even if it's mostly in the background or as the heart to Wolfgang's brains, I think he could work just as well as Wolfgang.

So, that's my prediction for now! The most likely blackened is Jean, with Wolfgang and Eva as backups, and Wenona and Diana as backups after them. But, in the case of any of them being the killer, who would they kill? Obviously, the answer may differ slightly depending on which of them (or someone else) it is, but I'll try to come up with a good aggregate answer.

The Victims

While my victim ideas will still be roughly ranked in order of likelihood, know that there's a lot less difference between #1 and #5 here than on the killers list. And, along that line of thinking, I'm a lot less confident in these predictions than in the killers', in the sense that I would be less surprised if the victim was none of the five characters discussed below than I would be for the killer. But, at any rate: the five most likely victims.

#5: Kai

I could definitely see some personal bias coming in to me placing Kai here. Not because I dislike Kai-- actually, he was quite possibly my favorite character coming out of the Prologue. I love a funny pathetic drama queen. I just remember, after first playing that Prologue, having the fear that Kai would turn out to be the first killer, thus eliminating my so-far favorite from the game. Obviously I've since removed him from my likely killers' catalogue, but I still can't shake the feeling that he could be an early death.

Kai is an easily recognizable and memorable character. You know who he is near-instantaneously-- take one look at him and you're already saying, "oh god, the influencer." He's really talkative, already having taken up a lot of screen time in his "arc" of being terrified by the body to being too lazy to participate in the Trial to eventually blabbering his way through it anyways. He also already has a defined dynamic with Damon. Even if I can't necessarily say that Damon would be sad to see Kai gone at this point (sorry Kaimon shippers), he'd have to have some sort of personal reaction to it. I could see him eventually recognizing something along the lines of, "it's weird to not have Kai around bothering me anymore."

It's no surprise that Kai is a popular character in the fandom, because he has all the traits to take on a role like that. However, that sort of characterization is a double edged sword. When considering the killing game as a whole, it's hard to come up with a first victim who will still be remembered and celebrated by the end of the entire saga (assuming that's what you're going for). However, despite not being a super critical character to the story*, I could see Kai continue to be featured in fanart and included in fanfiction due to his humor and pretty boy appeal long after his demise.

(*I'm not saying that Kai couldn't be a super relevant character if he survives Chapter 1, I'm just saying that, if he is the Chapter 1 victim, I don't think it would be in a Mukuro/Twogami/Rantaro Early Mystery kind of way.)

Kai is definitely one of those characters that I see in a crux position, where they're either going to be a super early game character or a super late game character. And, to be honest, despite what I've said here and what I believed after playing the Prologue, I actually now think Kai might have the legs to go long game. Although he could just be a bit of a cowardly funny guy who can't handle the circumstances and instantly drops dead (sort of like what was originally planned for Hiro in THH), Kai does seem to have a lot of... issues. While I originally thought those might just play out in his FTEs-- which is still theoretically possible-- I think the story might take more time to dive into them. There's also a clear arc before him of initially not rising to the killing game's challenge, but eventually being forced to take things seriously and give it his all.

There're also the comments that Grace made in Kai's introduction about him a dictator. From what we've seen of Kai so far, that label seems really hard to believe. If his character ever needs to rise to that dictator status, he'll probably need more time to do it.

I'm also applying some... meta knowledge here. I'm pretty sure I remember from watching some of the San Japan interviews that Kai is at least one of the writers' favorite characters, which is a bold take if he does die literally first. Also, I just learned from trying to look up what Kai and Damon's ship name is that apparently three of the staff artists ship Kaimon. Could that indicate that Kai and Damon might survive together...? I could definitely just be looking into things too much with both of these, but it's hard for me to not consider all the evidence at hand.

Anyways. Kai could really easily be taken out first, or he could have a major role to play yet. In either case, I'm sure this speculation will be fun to look back at in the future.

#4: Toshiko

Hey, maybe I can make that wedding veil thing have meaning after all.

Part of what I was considering when coming up with my list of potential victims is what sort of rationale the killer would have when choosing who to kill. Obviously, with the method I described in Jean's section, it's possible the criteria would be "whoever walks into the Dining Hall alone first," which is essentially random. However, that doesn't give me much to work with, so I tried to assume something more specific than that. However, I also didn't want to make it too specific-- like Peko targeting Mahiru in SDR2 Ch2 due to a prior conflict-- because that forces me to pin down my killer too hard, and might rely on information I simply don't have.

Instead, we're looking for a broad category, like "Sayaka wanted a manipulable man." Honestly, the "I want to kill but I don't have a specific image in mind of who" apparently doesn't happen too much in canon, but I think it's a really useful one to consider. Would the killer want to target an unpopular person so that anyone could have a motive to kill? Would the killer want to target the smartest person around so that they'll have fewer hurdles to deal with in the Class Trial? Would the killer take out the weakest and most vulnerable target because that's all they could manage, or even because they want people to believe that's all they could manage?

To go along with the hypocrisy theme, I think that the killer taking out an easy target for simplicity's sake is a very plausible option. Especially if the killer is a strong person like Jean, there's that added injustice of, "dude, you couldn't even pick on someone your own size?"

If that is the case, Toshiko is an obvious choice for someone who's small and easy to beat in a fight. (Kai follows these guidelines too, to an extent.) Other than her small size potentially making her harder to hit, I could imagine anyone being able to overpower her with relative ease. This part is more of a shot in the dark, as we haven't seen any daily life play out yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if Toshiko's notably younger age leaves her with few friends around the school. Thus, she might more often be found alone, making her easier to ambush and giving the killer more time before somebody realizes something is wrong.

Toshiko is also in the group of Eva, Grace, Wolfgang, and herself who got additional focus via conducting introductions with Damon in the Prologue. Including the first victim within that group would be a great way to give their character with the least screen time a bit more before they die off.

However, I also have my doubts that this will happen. It's just... such a bold move to kill the literal child as you're drawing first blood. Like, obviously I picked it for the hypocrisy-themed chapter because that kind of thing would make you look like a monster, but, would anybody really bite?

I also just kinda get the vibes that Toshiko is set up to be more than the first victim. While uniquely making her a child could be intentional, if the first killer is meant to look extra heartless, I don't understand where the Ultimate Matchmaker talent would have come from in that case. I guess she could matchmake or otherwise psychoanalyze people in the Chapter 1 daily life before she dies...? Maybe the killer could be worried about her figuring out how they're feeling and want to silence her. Actually, okay, that's convincing enough.

Picking Toshiko goes against my gut instincts of where Eden's Garden is headed, but I can't deny that there are sensible arguments behind Toshiko dying first as well. Or, maybe I'm just delusional. I'll leave that up to y'all's judgment at this point.

#3: Diana

Uh, kind of the same things that I just said about Toshiko, as well as my arguments for Diana being the killer. Diana also appears to be pretty weak, so it wouldn't be too hard for others to overpower and kill her. I also didn't forget that she too is a child, although she appears much more mature than Toshiko due to 1) being a high school senior as opposed to a high school freshman and 2) having an industry job rather than however Toshiko's business functions. You could still use the argument of "why would you kill someone who still has so much life left to live," although it might feel a little awkward when characters like Mark are only one year older than Diana and Toshiko is (presumably) still standing right there.

Really, though, the main reason why Diana ranks this high is because she's so darn nice. Even if people might see her as a little ditzy, I still feel that she'd have the most unilaterally "why did you choose to kill such a sweet person" response across the board. Depending on who the killer is, that choice could be hypocritical. If it's someone like Jean or Wolfgang who had been trying to convince everyone to work together and shaming those who didn't conform, eliminating someone who was happily following along with your plan could be considered hypocritical.

However, I still think that Diana is more primed to have a surprisingly deep run than a surprisingly short one. If Diana died first, then her character is "nice girl," and that's it. What about all of that weird mastermind coding?! My new theory is actually that Diana will be killed at some point because people think she's the mastermind, even though she's actually innocent. (That, or The_Humbugg is right and Diana has autism, and the mastermind coding is a galaxy brain method to ensure that viewers are wary of her for reasons that are entirely not her fault, much like how neurotypical people might instinctively find autistic people unsettling/shifty even when they aren't trying to be. I love The_Humbugg's video everyone should watch that.)

I was actually at first worried for her in Chapter 1 for that reason, until I remembered that (currently, at least) the students haven't been told that there's a mastermind among them. (Assuming there even canonically is, I might add.) Obviously, they could learn about that in Chapter 1, but at that point, just put it in the Prologue. Then the fandom could be sure in the long hiatus that speculating about a mastermind had a point, and potentially start thinking about how a killer could react to that information.

Still, Diana's extreme friendship stances make it easy for me to fit her into the hypocrisy theme in either the killer or victim position. But, if she can use her chameleon skills to fade into the background for just one chapter, I think she might have a long life ahead of her.

#2: Wolfgang

Anybody think this dude is just... flying too close to the sun?

Perhaps this placement is a remnant of the past: when my sister and I were first playing through the Prologue, we totally thought that Wolfgang gave off first victim energy. Except, funnily enough, we thought it was because he was kind of a bland, friendly character who clearly didn't have much going for him, if he was burning one of his voice lines on "Miss Madison!". We were fully taken aback when he popped off in the Prologue trial, and agreed that he wouldn't be a first victim for those reasons anymore. However, he could still die first for other reasons.

Other than Damon, it's hard to argue that any character gets more of a spotlight in the Prologue than Wolfgang. Hell, he might even beat Damon in that regard. It may just be the fandom's penchant for fawning over pale, skinny, antagonistic men, but Wolfgang certainly felt like the most after-the-fact-discussed character to me. However, it's possible that Wolfgang is being set up as a huge figure in the Prologue and Chapter 1 daily life because that's all the time he has to shine. It's possible the Prologue trial was conceptualized under the rationale that the Ultimate Lawyer should have to attend at least one Trial.

While Wolfgang isn't necessarily easy to overpower, it's easy to see how any killer would want to off him so that they don't have to face him in the Class Trial. Even if Damon did a considerable amount of heavy lifting, the majority of the Class sees it as Wolfgang's skills that got them through the Class Trial. He certainly displayed how ruthless he was willing to become against those who spat in the face of what he called justice. If I were becoming the blackened, I'd be worried about facing off against him in the Class Trial. One easy way to prevent that from happening is to cancel his attendance.

Also, while I said I didn't want to get too into the details of any killers in particular, should Jean be the blackened, things could get extra spicy. If I'm right that Jean and Wolfgang could come to lead the group together, then killing your co-leader because you're afraid he could properly bring you to justice is just extra salt in the wound.

But, now it's time for the counterarguments, naturally. Everything I said about the lost potential of having Wolfgang cap out at first killer is probably even more true if he's the first victim. The whole "lawyer versus bargain bin" thing would only actually be applicable to one Trial, even if the memory of Wolfgang's Trial prowess would probably hang over Damon's head for a while. More decisively, if the game is going for an ethos/logos/pathos thing, I have a hard time seeing who would fill the ethos shoes quite as well as Wolfgang did. I guess Damon could eventually step into that role, coming to embody all three...? However, it might be a little early to set that arc in motion.

Again, maybe it's just an inability to shake my initial assumptions, but I still have the vibe ingrained in my mind that Wolfgang will be a shockingly early death. Well, shocking to some people. Not me or Venus, though. But, I won't be shocked if he lives, either. Wolfgang will be a narratively important character, we just need to see how exactly he'll go about it.

#1: Eva

Wow, Eva gets to be the third character included who introduced themselves alongside Damon and the third repeat character from the killer's list! Unfortunately, it seems like I'm not predicting that she's going to make it even as far as the third death in this killing game. Tell me that statement's a lie...!

I think I'll actually start out with some of the counterarguments this time, because they relate to things I've said about other characters. Like Diana, I did initially call Eva to mind because I thought people would think she's suspicious, and perhaps kill her under the assumption that she's the mastermind. However, that's once again probably not going to be the case, because the students don't currently know whether there's a mastermind among them or not. Also, going back to the ethos/logos/pathos thing, I think there's a pretty decent chance that Wolfgang will be ethos, Damon will be pathos, and Eva will serve as logos. There are... probably better options for a replacement logos (including Damon just double wielding with truth and pathos bullets) than a replacement ethos, but Eva is probably still be the best fit. Given that no one trusts her (ethos) and everyone thinks an emotional argument would be a lie (pathos), all she has to convince people is the cold hard facts (logos).

Also, you can't ignore that Damon, Wolfgang, and Eva could just be a really obvious protag/antag/support trio that will all make it to Chapter 5 or whatever. I'm hoping for something a little less vanilla than that, but, hey, that's just me. It's their game and they can do whatever they want.

However... The_Humbugg comes in clutch once again! I won't fully reiterate all of their points, but basically, they bring up a lot of solid arguments about how Eva might have additional information about the prior killing game in which Cara died. Even beyond the possibility that Tozu might stack the killing game in a way that could subtly target Eva, unlike Kai, she does feel like she's being written as the Early Mystery. Also, if she's the one bringing up information about the prior killing games, it's possible another student could "connect the dots" themselves and assume she's somehow behind this one.

Beyond those more far-reaching speculative points though, I do also think that Eva being a victim would fit with the themes of hypocrisy. Specifically, the veil part. Given that the killer is (probably) "beneath the veil of hypocrisy," they aren't just hypocritical, but they're hidden beneath their hypocrisy. They might not even know that that veil is there. So, essentially, killing Eva-- the one who's been directly calling people out for their poor assumptions-- would be the killer succumbing to vice and doing anything to shut up the nagging voice that's accusing them of wrongdoing. They can't come out from under the veil of hypocrisy and confront it face-to-face, so they wind up only furthering their hypocrisy in an attempt to hide from it.

Eva is also in the top three most highlighted characters of the Prologue, between introducing herself alongside Damon (bonus points for meeting Damon first and in special circumstances) and her little speech at the end of the Class Trial. Even more than Wolfgang, to me, her heightened involvement in the Prologue feels like an inclusion to get her more content before an early death, rather than setting up a major character with other relationships and plot threads down the road. That's just my gut instinct, though.

Final Thoughts

And with that, Eva's section is over. I do want to make quick mention of Cassidy, though, because I know a lot of people think that she'll be the first victim. I think it's because of where and how much she's appeared in promotional material...? To be honest, I don't really see it, but I probably would have listed her sixth for lack of other ideas. She is another character whose jokes made her very memorable after only one chapter, and I could see her getting on someone's nerves enough for them to choose to strike back against her. Again, won't be super surprised if it is her-- because, to reiterate, I don't have incredibly strong feelings about who the victim will be-- but I didn't have much of my own to add for Cassidy speculation.

Well, you askers have done it again (/pos). You got me to ramble for way too long about Fangan Possibilities. It's fine; I think that geeking out over various fangan theory essays is important for my account and my personal ecosystem. Perhaps next time, I'll have a bit more evidence to look over if the first chapter is out by then. Or, maybe I'll have a thought of my own after rewatching/replaying the prologue again, or somebody will send me another ask that I take WAY too long to respond to.

Thank you again for the ask and your patience, @thefandomenchantress! I hope you and everyone else enjoyed. Until next time!

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