#hypothetical genetics
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hypothetical fawn golden shaded grizzle!
Soooo as I have mentioned briefly I am in a wcrp, in which said wcrp uses genetic terms & has a genetic roller for rp. someone came in and asked what THIS beast might look like
And so I figure I'll share what I came up with since it took me So Fucking Long and I do think enough ppl who follow me might be interested!!
This is the end result!! I will be copy/pasting my explanation & inserting more images below
Im going to be using more basic explanations of a gene and only in relation to how they apply to this cat so im not writing 5 million word
To start, we have a regular fawn ticked tabby!
Wideband then makes the hairs of the cat have more pheomelanin (golden/background color) and less melanin (fawn color), as well as usually restricting the melanin to the tip of the hair.
Theeennnn we introduce silver (as seen below), which reduces the amount of pigment found in the pheomelanin; when combined with wideband making a cat look particularly pale (since any melanin in the wideband-effected hairs can also be broken up/less "solid," it can result in melanin looking more diluted/warm, it can also visually lighten the melanin areas on a cat.) I probably should've made the pale parts more desaturated at this point but ignoring that….
This is where we get Really Hypothetical!
As far as I'm aware we don't really know what chausie grizzle is or does. I've seen sources like messybeast (lol) claim that it is just silver-tipping found in black chausies/melanistic jungle cats but I dissagree. I personally believe a theory [User] initially mentioned to me is more probable; the idea that it is moreso the expansion of agouti; Potentially making the tabby hairs of the cat have more melanin than normal. (Maybe also restricts it towards the base of the hair to explain the satin-like appearance it can have?)
So…given that they basically would have the opposite effects assuming that this is true, there's really no saying how they'd interact. They could cancel eachother out, one could be dominant over the other, ect… There's also no telling which one of these options is more likely.
I went with the idea that the grizzle would be more dominant/have more effect, but that the wideband could potentially still be in effect where the grizzle seems to be least present (around the belly & flanks) which kind of breaks up the solid-ness of most grizzle cats (since grizzle does vary a lot.)
Silver would still work the same throughout all of this & make the phaeomelanin a lighter almost-white color. (There's a potential grizzle also does this too? But. shrug.) …Again I really should've made the light yellow color more silver-colored but i digress.
Now we have colorpoint! Also have no clue if it'd have some weird secret surprise fucked up effect on grizzle but it does seem to be a fairly reliable gene in that it is just a form of albinism so it should have a similar or same effect on everything. It just inhibits colors in the warmer areas of the body & allows it in the colder parts (thus, extremities!)
....And from there you've guys seen what I did when I added the thai white! Not sure how DBE would effect it, but I made my best guess & it wasn't the most important part of this . adventure jdbhjhg
Oh, bonus picture of my canvas with the most refs i've ever used for one piece lol. (Digital piece, anyway. Ceramics is another thing entirely....)
shoutout to @/felinefractious for sourcing pretty much all of said refs lmao
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the urge to write a roomies zombie apocalypse au is so strong right now. they're just the Most zombie apocalypse au people EVER like they would make so much sense as a little gang
#i feel like cleo would be immune to the infection also#but i think that immunity isnt as hard to come by as it is in a lot of zombie worlds#like maybe theres a genetic factor#the alliances and other dynamics would probably also have some basis from the other seasons#like i feel like desert duo in this hypothetical au would definitely still be tragic. like perhaps they have some dramatic split#and then grian goes to the roomies#eventually i think desert duo would come back together#but it wouldnt be the main focus or anything#slsmp#secret life#grian#desert duo#roomies#etho#ethoslab#zombiecleo#trafficblr#ian yammers#roomies zombie apocalypse au#rmzau
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In the Beginning: A Scientific Exploration of Life’s Hypothetical Origins
In the most profound of inquiries, humanity seeks to comprehend the genesis of its own existence, prompting a meticulous examination of the Earth’s primordial landscape. This quest to unravel the mysteries of life’s origins has captivated scientists and scholars for centuries, leading to a nuanced understanding of the intricate interplay between chemical, biological, and environmental factors that potentially gave rise to the first living organisms.
Approximately 4 billion years ago, the Earth’s canvas was vastly different from the one we know today, with minimalistic cells emerging amidst this alien landscape. Characterized by carboxylic acid membranes and RNA-driven heredity, these primitive entities laid the foundational blueprint for the astounding complexity that would eventually follow. The evolution of ribozymes, capable of catalyzing metabolic reactions, was a seminal moment, bridging the gap between a lifeless chemistry and the nascent biochemistry of early organisms. This development not only enhanced cellular capabilities but also underscored the symbiotic relationship between genetic innovation and environmental pressures.
The pursuit of energy, a fundamental drive in the evolution of life, led early organisms to harness the planet’s primordial power sources. Mineral catalysis and reactive phosphorus species might have played crucial roles in the synthesis of ATP, with the Wood-Ljungdahl pathway exemplifying the resourcefulness of these early life forms in exploiting available energy sources.
Our exploration of the Earth’s history leads us to Luca, the Last Universal Common Ancestor, whose characteristics offer a fascinating glimpse into the life of our most ancient shared forebear. The proposed environment of Luca, akin to the chemistry-rich settings of volcanic vents, underscores the profound connection between life’s emergence and the planet’s geochemical landscape. Furthermore, the concept of the Origin of Life Domain (OLD) invites us to contemplate the possibility of alternative life forms, unconnected to Luca’s lineage, and the uncharted scientific territories that await discovery.
From the First Organism to LUCA - The Evolution of Life's Core Processes (Wolfpack Astrobiology, March 2024)
youtube
Life Began Much Faster Than We Thought (Sabine Hossenfelder, December 2024)
youtube
Saturday, December 7, 2024
#scientific exploration#hypothetical origins#primordial landscape#biochemical pathways#life's beginnings#interdisciplinary approaches#environmental pressures#genetic innovation#presentations#ai assisted writing#machine art#Youtube
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Dumb question but if Lud got Gil pregnant would their child be fine 🤔
Not a dumb question at all! I have a pretty simple answer to this:
I sincerely do not think that nations operate on anything close to the nuances and complexities of regular human genetics. So yeah, probably, any hypothetical child of theirs would be as "fine" as any other nation/representation.
#mine#gerpru#from the askbox#which is a good thing because ludwig's hypothetical genetics are a goddamn MESS thanks to [DATA EXPUNGED]#you'd think Gil would be the Problem here but. no. well. you see.#it's not something i think or worry about so neither should you
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the thing is while i would desperately love to have a little kitty cat in my apartment to keep me company and taking care of a creature would probably help me keep on top of my self and home care routines, i think i am just too busy and stressed and have too little time to take care of a cat rn on top of everything else i have to do at work school and home
#also my apartment is kind of small i'm not sure it's really enough room to responsibly house a kitty cat#i mean i could do it if i really set my mind to it but finding space for but it's not a huge amount of space for like. cat zoomies time yk.#although in the hypothetical future when i have a cat i want to adopt an older cat anyway who my be less energetic#but then again we've had cats in the past who have remained active well into seniority so it's kind of the luck of the draw#re: genetics and personality#anyway.#it's just. not a good idea rn i think. as much as i miss having a kitty cat in my home...#sasha speaks
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If anyone's into it feel free to take this off my hands cause I don't want it:
Metadow where Silver's their kid, facilitated by Metal's mucking about with genetic splicing -- since apparently he's interested in biotech, judging by Heroes -- so insert whatever shipping stuff one wants with them during the 200 years or whatever, and eventually someone gets the bright idea for a test tube baby for some reason, and huh weird it came out looking a lot like that one guy they used to know from the future *wait a minute--*
#metadow#sonic shipping#and that's all I'm tagging it in really#I was just idly musing about how Silver being Shadow's kid could possibly work and well I guess Metal could *technically* reproduce#if he actually wanted to; dunno that he would; that'd depend on your writing#but yeah just jurassic park that shit -- get some rando donor dna and patchwork sequence in whatever genes ya want#add to Shadow's genes and pop it in an easy-bake and voila telekinesis gremlin#potentially a way to explore the design challenge that is fankids with Metal as a 'bio' parent without needing to be robots#could even match traits to be whatever his organicsona would have#course since genetics don't exactly work as a 1-1 he could still do that and hypothetically have Silver who doesn't look much like either of#them; cause there's still going to be recessive genes and stuff from the patchwork dna and Shadow's#unless they somehow made Shadow without any unexpressed genes but I don't know why/how you'd do that#anyway I don't do much romance stuff but I do like the idea of Metal continuing to be a bioscientist so it'd be neat to see something like#that#course it's just as if not more interesting for him to have robot kids#but it's another option that's also relatively unique to him#although I guess he could help anyone have a kid if they wanted; that'd probably be nice of him#dude just wanted to turn himself into a cool bio-robo-dragon and now the Gays are asking him about gene splicing#in actual stories I prefer found family stuff but I enjoy the challenges that come with 'how could these two biologically work' and#'what would a kid of these two look like based on their genetics'#it's a fun exercise and design challenge#but the romance ain't for me so someone else is welcome to try this
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my f/os: hey dimples
me: 🥰🥰😍☺️☺️🥰🥰😊😍☺️😊😊
#imagine the crazy dimples the hypothetical josh brolin f/o and I's offspring would be handed down genetically#the way i was given cheek dimples AND a buttchin ok overkill lol
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Goldfish post got me looking up Betta genetics more seriously this time and ughhhhh it's HAPPENING AGAIN I WILL BITE A GOD
If I ever get into breeding it's 120% going to have a health focus FIRST because at the current rate we're breeding them into the floor, we won't have anything livable left.
#kerytalk#fish nonsense#what's that? me getting angry at the genetic mismanagement of another domesticated species?#it's more common than you think#like very very on brand for me#followed by my very cranky plans of 'if no one is going to do it I'll do it MYSELF'#problem is getting any Betta here is probably going to be relying on thai bulk imports and I have no way of knowing lineage with these fish#either way I'd be waiting idk 2 years to see how they age/if they develop shit before even touching breeding#(breeding is also completely hypothetical at this point anyway)#also NO the solution to fixing them is 'don't breed them' either#what start from scratch with a wild type? sure but that means taking that out of it's native environment most likely - also bad if not wors#I want to breed a pet FISH not an ORNAMENT#man's obsession with controlling nature to the point it's an object makes me want to commit violence#this has been a tag rant#ventpost
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Guys I'm so incredibly sorry. My brain is currently full of gen 1 my little pony thoughts only suitable for the fictbio blog
#i have created so much fake science as to how magic works#after hundreds/thousands of years ponies evolved symbioticly with magic (which isnt technically alive but functions kinda like an organism)#and now most of them have generate amount of magic via their heads. which is why the hair is magic + all the magic is done with ears/noses#ponies with excessive amounts of magic usually have growths on their foreheads (unicorns) or eyes (the twinkle eye bitches)#there are ways to artificially enhance your control over magic (most notably tatoos which only heighten control over what the tatoo is of)#(which is why cutie marks are practically a cultural necessity. you usually choose one as a teenage coming of age thing)#(the ones babies have are temorary and pretty weak and just exist to fuck around and find out/let the kids explore their options)#((i might change my headcanons on this so cutie marks are actually natural but im proud of the hypothetical idea)#most babies we see are genetic clones but ponies can reproduce sexually#sea ponies are a relatively newly evolved species (if you can even say that about a species. theyre been here thousands of years)#and they're only semi-aquatic as babies. kind of. they have a separate air breathing respiratory system and water breathing one#and as bebs theyre still learning to use each one selectively so they need to gradually ease into the water over years so they dont drown#or maybe im wrong ive been reading the box descriptions for hours but its been forever since i watched the series#all i remember about the series is that not having a shadow makes you all kinds of sick#and that you call upon the seaponies when youre in destr-
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spontaneous magic manifestation was NOT mentioned in the parenting handbook 😬
I know this isn’t how magic in dc works, but the fact that Damian’s ancestry includes some pretty powerful magic users is… INTERESTING 🤔? Drabble under the cut!
I wanna preface that I'M NOT SAYIN' that Damian should/does have magic powers, but there’s still so much unexplored potential with Damian's character, and the thought that he has a dormant adeptness in magic is somewhat compelling to me. Most importantly it would FREAK! BRUCE! OUT!!!!! What is this, magic puberty 😭??
By DC laws, anyone has the ability to learn magic, but it is also possible to be an innate ability. The Al Ghuls are no strangers to the occult-- Ra's has had increasingly been portrayed as a magic user, and the recent establishment of his mother being a sorceress/witch?? Even Talia dabbled in a bit of magic, I think. There is a catch that their power is suggested to be due to Lazarus exposure, but for arguments sake let's say the Al Ghul lineage is inherently proficient in magic (and Lazarus exposure simply enhances it).
I can't recall "magic" being a part of Damian's training/upbringing (I'm still slowly catching-up on Damian comics so apologies if I miss any canon examples of magic use). Not sure why Talia wouldn't want her little "heir to an ancient assassin empire baby" to learn magic, but it would at least give reason to Damian not knowing about his magic potential, or lack of interest in it.
Through the power of pseudo storytelling, what if Damian's encounter with Mother Soul could have triggered a manifestation of magic that was once dormant; like a pressure cooker waiting to explode with energy when it hasn't been given a safe outlet.
I've yet to read a satisfying arc where Damian truly gets to contemplate his Al Ghul roots outside of "dad is good guy, mum is bad guy". Damian's initial character growth stems from him running away from, and renouncing his association with the League (i.e. "I'm nothing like you, mother and grandfather!").
The most recent thing I've read was Robin (2021), and whilst Damian is much more cordial with his mother, there's still an emotional distance and sense of distrust/resentment (for good reason, even if the context was some cartoonishly evil writing). But there is a silver-lining that they still appear to be fond of each other, in a melancholy kind of way.
Realizing he's "genetically" primed for magic would be especially confronting to Damian. There's no denying his Al Ghul blood, forcing him to confront a facet of himself he can no longer ignore or reject. A family that he likely has to approach for help/guidance.
Damian is put in a position of acknowledging this power could be used for good, to be stronger, to fight crime, balancing it with the implication that what he possesses could be rooted in dark magic (Lazarus enchantment).
If he decides to embrace it, would that be too much of an endorsement of the Al Ghul's dark occultism? Can he separate the two ideas? What if he can't control it? What if he accidentally hurts someone? What if has the ability to save someone where his other skills fall short?
Ideally, I'd love for this hypothetical story to lead into Damian exploring his Al Ghul heritage more intimately, historically, and spiritually (à la RSoB: Year of Redemption adventures). Another little coming-of-age self discovery journey.
I have my own little personal thoughts on what Damian decides to do with his magic powers, but I'd like to leave that open to interpretation... By the end of it I hope that he will at least find some forgiveness over resentment, and a balance between accepting that side of his family a little easier. It is finally a sense of inner peace :)
Any thoughts? Did I get any characterisation wrong? Let's talk over on my DC blog @arkhamochi! I'm currently trying to read all Damian-centric comics until I catch up with the current run. I'm hungry for discussion and analysis!!!!!!
#batman#batman and robin#damian wayne#bruce wayne#dc comics#P.S. drabble is kinda LONG so DO NOT read more unless you want the inconvenience of scrolling
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This poll is about whether you would be willing to pass your genetic health issues on to biological children. For the purposes of this poll, answer based on this question alone– if you don't want to have children for other reasons, try to put those reasons aside and answer solely on the basis of whether you would want hypothetical children to inherit your condition(s).
For the purposes of this poll, do not include the possibility of IVF + PGD (in vitro fertilization with preimplantation genetic diagnosis), which allows the parents to choose a healthy embryo or an embryo with specific traits to be conceived.
Be civil in the comments and remember that real people live with every one of the conditions you could bring up in your hypothetical arguments. If you have a condition that aligns with this question, feel free to discuss your reasoning, but I encourage anyone who does not have a condition like this to refrain from speculating on the value of lives with such conditions. Do not use this post as a platform for eugenics.
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We ask your questions anonymously so you don’t have to! Submissions are open on the 1st and 15th of the month.
#polls#incognito polls#anonymous#tumblr polls#tumblr users#questions#polls about health#submitted july 12#polls about ethics#genetic disorders#health#kids
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Oh I really like that vulture rep idea!! Also the color changing thing, that’s neat.
I’ve had the idea that in a hypothetical campaign TSAC could give the slugcat some kind of mark or a special vulture mask that would make vultures leave you alone (similar to the chieftain scavenger mask in artificer’s campaign) but idk how to implement that.
I know in the random buff mod there’s a card that will make vultures ignore you (the vulture mutation card I think) but I’m not sure how they implemented that either…

tge signal :)
WOAH ITS MY GUY!! AND MY GUY’S GUY!!!!
I literally posted about The Signal once, I was never expecting them to get fanart haha
#I still think that tsac would be very hesitant to try and create a purposed organism from scratch#(their equipment isn’t designed for it and they don’t want to risk damaging themself)#but I guess hypothetically they could give the genetic code to another iterator and have them make it. idk#still a cool idea though#rain world#three stars above clouds
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Fandom: Arcane
Pairing: Jayce/Viktor
Tags: omegaverse, future-mpreg
Still not a prompt fill (I will start on them I swear!) but I’ve been meaning to write Viktor deciding he wants to have a baby with Jayce because of scientific curiosity for a while now. So I am glad this is written.
And yes I did have an image of them both open while I was writing this to compare which features I think Viktor would prefer from which one of them.
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Viktor doesn’t often get to watch Jayce work.
There is nearly always something else that can be done while Jayce creates a new casing or frame-part. Either wiring to be soldiered or a formula to continue working through. So much work to be done and never enough hours in the day.
Not this time. They had hit a point where nothing further could be done until Jayce finished forging the guard that would separate the Hextech core from the external mechanisms. So Viktor had joined him at the Talis’ Forge despite having complete faith in Jayce’s ability to do it right.
Supervising just feels more productive than merely waiting. And Viktor does enjoy watching his partner work on the rare opportunities he can allow himself to.
He will not deny that Jayce is impressive to watch when he is at work.
His shirt has been abandoned from the heat giving Viktor full view of the muscles of his partner’s broad shoulders shining from sweat and golden from the light of the furnace. The alpha’s strength on full display with each hammer fall. The profile of his face defined by the shadows cast by his features.
From the moment he met him Viktor knew Jayce was impressive, both in body and mind.
The physical part was impossible for anyone to miss. Jayce was stunning to look at, the very definition of an ideal alpha. Strong and fit but not hulking. Broad shoulders that taper into a defined waist and warm arms that it is so very easy to imagine being carried in. He is fit and healthy and seems to naturally draw the eyes of all around him.
But it was Jayce’s mind that had actually made Viktor interested in him. The ideas in his notes were genius even if Viktor had seen where they could be improved. Jayce hadn’t disappointed after they started working together. His intelligence may not be the same as Viktor’s, but the ease he could conceive and create the exact tool to fix the problem before them was inspired. Working with him was working with Viktor’s true intellectual equal.
Viktor can hardly blame the fans that fawn over his partner when Jayce makes public appearances. Anyone would want Jayce as a mate. His genetics alone ample reason before adding in his gentle kindness and sweet awkwardness.
All of it traits his hypothetical children could inherit.
Although if Viktor seriously considers the possibility of Jayce and children, then, while Jayce has many traits that would be desirable to see passed down, he is not perfect.
While Jayce’s hands are very skilled at what they do they lack the fineness and dexterity of Viktor’s own. So a child would do well to inherit from Viktor instead in that regard.
Even with his strong square jaw Jayce’s brow and eyebrows always seem to overpower his face. It would be good for a child to have one more like Viktor’s – less prominent and with a lower hairline to soften it.
While Viktor appreciates Jayce’s intelligence far more than the average person he will admit his bias in preferring that his own would be passed onto any child of theirs.
Then there are the things that matter less which way they go. Jayce’s skin may seem to glow under the golden light of his forge or the sun but Viktor’s hardly blemishes apart from a mole here or there. They both have good eyesight and neither possess a particularly outstanding eye colour. The texture of both their hairs is equal in strengths even if different.
Together they could make a glorious child.
Viktor would be remiss not to consider how difficult a pregnancy would be for him before letting his mind follow the thought any further. His body is deteriorating, he knows, and the weight of a baby on his spine would do it no favors.
Hextech hadn’t been easy either though. And it had been worth all the effort and pain and risk it took to create.
He would need only do it once to test his hypothesis.
“What are you thinking about Vik?” Jayce asks, taking off the wielding goggles as he turns around. The rest of his gear already put aside.
“I think I want a baby.”
Jayce stumbles, knocking into the table next to him. Catching himself to lean against it. The muscles in his arm bulging from the force he’s pushing down on it with.
“What?” he asks, free hand gesturing emptily. “Like generally or-“
“No, with you.” Viktor cannot say he ever thought about having a child before. His work always far too important. The idea of having one with someone else is not at all appealing. But with Jayce-
They created Hextech together as partners. The kind of child they could make together actually feels exciting in the way the early days of their partnership did. An unexplored potential that Vitktor wants to see reached.
“Right,” Jayce says, glancing at Viktor then up at the ceiling and then the floor in rapid succession. His hand comes to scratch behind his ear as he pushing himself off the table to stand fully upright. “Like now?”
“Well conception rarely is successful on the first try,” Viktor says, reaching for his cane as he stands up and walks over to Jayce. More to pace as he explains the process than anything. “And a pregnancy takes 40 weeks if it goes to full-term. So in about a year. If we start trying now.”
It is better they do it sooner than later if they are going to. How long before the deterioration of Viktor’s body makes him unable to carry a pregnancy an unknown.
“You’re serious,” Jayce says with a weak laugh.
“Of course. I would not joke about something like that.” It would be cruel to. “So do you want to or not?”
“Yes! I mean, if you want. Are you sure? It’s- You’ll- Us- A baby-“ Jayce stutters adorably. Viktor hopes their child inherits Jayce’s earnestness. “Do you want to start trying now?”
Viktor gives a hum of contemplation.
“We can install that first,” he decides, pointing to the guard that should be nearly done cooling. “But tonight, yes. If that works for you.”
“I don’t have any other plans,” Jayce jokes awkwardly and Viktor notes Jayce’s smile as another thing he hopes they inherit.
#Arcane#Jayvik#jayce talis#Arcane Jayce#Jayce Arcane#Viktor Arcane#Arcane Viktor#mpreg#omegaverse#Arcane mpreg#Arcane omegaverse#I accidently a ficlet#Ramblings of the Goddess#Work/life balance
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Wait, what could have pushed Andrenil to decide to have 4 children? Is that too much of a responsibility!! I'm not sure it would be easy to decide on such a thing

So this is a universe where andreil throws caution to the wind and just has kids
It’s a hypothetical world, one that could technically never exist because andreil is smarter than that. I designed this universe as a self indulgent plan for my sister until she stopped me when I started on designs. I picked up the project only recently because someone wondered what they’d look like if they had bio kids
If you’re wondering why they didn’t stop on 1☝️it’s because Connie came out so well they thought having another wouldn’t be so bad. But they forgot about genetics and got stuck with twin horrors (they didn’t know it was twins until it was too late to change their minds)
Just know that in the We’ll Both Be Fine fic’s canon universe, these kids do not exist
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More crabs :]
First guy is hypothetical dad for Misraaks, and Misraaks is the second image
Third image is comparing the family -- Misraaks took after his father in shape, but has a lot of features that let you know exactly who his mother is. He's very clearly a Weaver with my genetics headcanons.
#art#sketch#colored#concept art#eliksni#fallen#d2 fallen#destiny 2#mithrax#misraaks#inaaks#d2 fanart#d2 art#destiny 2 art#destiny 2 fanart
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Filters in the way of technologically advanced life in the universe and how likely I think they are
1. Abiogenesis (4.4-3-8 billion years ago): Total mystery. The fact that it happened so quickly on Earth (possibly as soon as there was abundant liquid water) is a tiny bit of evidence for it being easy. Amino acids and polycyclic hydrocarbons are very common in space, but nucleotides aren't, and all hypothetic models I've seen require very specific conditions and a precise sequence of steps. (It would be funny if the dozen different mechanisms proposed for abiogenesis were all happening independently somewhere.)
2. Oxygenic photosynthesis (3.5 billion years ago) (to fuel abundant biomass, and provide oxygen or some other oxidizer for fast metabolism): Not so sure. Photosynthesis is just good business sense -- sunlight is right there -- and appeared several times among bacteria. But the specific type of ultra-energetic photosynthesis that cracks water and releases oxygen appeared only once, in Cyanobacteria. That required merging two different photosynthetic apparati in a rather complex way; and all later adoptions of oxygenic photosynthesis involved incorporating Cyanobacteria by endosymbiosis. For all that it's so useful, I don't know if I'd expect to see it on every living planet.
3. Eukaryotic cell (2.4 billion years ago?): Probably the narrowest bottleneck on the list. Segregated mitochondria with their own genes and a nucleus protecting the main genome are extremely useful both for energy production (decentralized control to maximize production without overloading) and for genetic storage (less DNA damage due to reactive metabolic waste). But there's a chicken-and-egg problem in which incorporating mitochondria to make energy requires an adjustable cytoskeleton, but that consumes so much energy it would require mitochondria already in place. Current models have found solutions that involve a very specific series of events. Or maybe not? Metabolic symbiosis, per se, is common, and there may have been other ways to gene-energy segregation. Besides, after the origin of eukaryotes, endosymbiosis occurred at least nine more times, and even some bacteria can incorporate smaller cells.
4. Sexual reproduction (by 1.2 billion years ago): Without meiotic sex (combining mutations from different lineages, decoupling useful traits from harmful ones, translating a gene in multiple way), the evolution of complex beings is going to be painfully slow. Bacteria already swap genes to an extent, and sexual recombination is bundled in with the origin of eukaryotes so I probably shouldn't count it separately (meiosis is just as energy-intensive as any other use of the cytoskeleton). Once you have recombination, life cycles with spores or gametes and sex differentiation probably follow almost inevitably.
5. Multicellularity (800 million years ago?): Quite common, actually. Happens all the time among eukaryotes, and once in a very limited form even among bacteria. Now we'd want complex organized bodies with geometry-defining genes, but even that happened thrice: in plants, fungi, and animals. As far as I know, various groups of yeasts are the only regressions to unicellularity.
6. Brains and sense organs (600 million years ago): Nerve cells arose either once or twice, depending on whether Ctenophora (comb-jellies) and Eumetazoa (all other animals except sponges) form a single clade or not. Some form of cellular sensing and communication is universal in life, though, so a tissue specialized for signal transmission is probably near inevitable once you have multicellular organisms whose lifestyle depends on moving and interacting with the environment. Sense organs that work at a distance are also needed, but image-forming eyes evolved in six phyla, so no danger there (and there's so many other potential forms of communication!). Just to be safe, you'll also want muscles and maybe mineralized skeletons on the list, but I don't think either is particularly problematic. An articulated skeleton is probably better than a rigid shell, but we still have multiple examples of that (polyplacophorans, brittle stars, arthropods, vertebrates).
7. Life on land (400 million years ago): (Adding this because air has a lot more oxygen to fuel brains than water (the most intelligent aquatic beings are air-breathers), and technology in water has the issue of fire.) You're going to need a waterproof integument, some kind of rigid support system, and kidneys to regulate water balance. Plenty of animal lineages moved on land: vertebrates, insects, millipedes, spiders, scorpions, multiple types of crabs, snails, earthworms, etc. Note that most of those are arthropods: this step seems to favor exoskeletons, which help a great deal in retaining water. Of course this depends on plants getting on land first, which on Earth happened only once, and required the invention of spores and cuticles. (Actually there are polar environments where all photosynthesis occurs in water, but they are recently settled and hardly the most productive.)
8. Human-like intelligence (a few million years ago?): There seems to a be a general trend in which the max intelligence attainable by animals on Earth has increased over time. There's quite a lot of animals today that approach or rival apes in intelligence: elephants, toothed cetaceans, various carnivorans, corvids, parrots, octopodes, and there's even intriguing data about jumping spiders. Birds seem to have developed neocortex-like brain structures independently. Of course humans got much farther, but the fact that even other human species are gone suggests that a planet is not big enough for more than one sophont, so the uniqueness of humans might not necessarily imply low probability. (We seem to exist about halfway through the habitability span of Earth land, FWIW.) The evolution of sociality should probably be lumped here: we'll want a species that can teach skills to its offspring and cooperate on tasks. But sociality is also a common and useful adaptation: many species on our list (octopodes are a glaring exception) are intensely social and care for their offspring. I mentioned above that the land-step favors exoskeletal beings, which in turns favors small size; but the size ranges of large land arthropods and very intelligent birds overlap, so that's not disqualifying.
9. Agriculture and urban civilization (11,000 years ago): Agriculture arrived quite late in the history of our species, but when it arrived -- i.e. at the end of the Wurm glaciation -- it arrived independently in four to eight different places around the world, in different biogeographic realms and climates, so I must assume that at least some climate regimes are great for it (glacial cycles are a minority of Earth's history; but did agriculture need to come after glaciations? Maybe a shock of seasonality did the trick). And once you have agriculture, complex urbanized societies follow most of the time, just a few millennia later. Even writing arose at least three times (Near East, China, and Mexico), and then spread quickly.
10. Scientific method and industrialization (300 years ago): We're getting too far from my expertise here, but whatever. The Eurasian Axial Age suggests that all civilizations with a certain degree of wealth, literacy, and interconnection will spawn a variety of philosophies. Philosophical schools that focus on material causes and effects like the Ionians or Charvaka have appeared sometimes, but often didn't win over more supernaturalist schools. Perhaps in pre-industrial times pure materialism isn't as useful! You may need to thread a needle between interconnected enough to exchange and combine ideas, and also decentralized enough that the intellectual elite can't quash heterodoxy. As for industrialization, that too happened only once, though that's another case in which the first achiever would snuff out any other. I hear Song China is a popular contender for alternative Industrial Revolutions (with coal-powered steelworks!); Imperial Rome and the Abbasid Caliphate are less convincing ones. For whatever reason, it didn't take until 18th century Britain.
11. Not dying randomly along the way: Mass extinctions killing off a majority of species happened over and over -- the Permian Great Dying, the Chicxulub impact, the early Oxygen Crisis -- but life has always rebounded fairly quickly and effectively. It's hard enough to sterilize an agar plate, let alone a planet. Disasters on this scale are also unlikely to happen in the lifespan of planet-bound civilizations, unless of course the civilizations are causing them. A civilization might still face catastrophic climate change, mega-pandemics, and nuclear war, not to mention lesser setbacks like culture-wide stagnation or collapse, and I couldn't begin to estimate how common, or ruinous, they would actually be.
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I have no idea how common the origin of life is, but the vast majority of planets with life will only have bacterial mats and stromatolites. Of the tiny sliver that evolved complex cells, a good chunk will have their equivalents of plants and animals, most of which may have intelligent life at least on primate- or cetacean-level at some later point. At any given time, a tiny fraction of those will have agricultural civilizations, at an even tinier fraction of that will have post-industrial science and technology. Let's say maybe 1 planet with industrial technology out of 100 with agriculture, 100,000 with hominid-level intelligence, 10 million with animal-like organisms, 100 millions with complex cells, and 10 billions with life at all?
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