#geopolitical risks to economy

[todayworldnews2k21]

ADB lowers GDP growth projection to 6.5% from 7% - Times of India

ADB lowers GDP growth projection to 6.5% from 7% NEW DELHI: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday lowered India’s growth forecast for 2024-25 to 6.5% from the earlier 7%, citing lower-than-expected second quarter growth, driven by dampened manufacturing performance and lagging govt spending.The Manila-based multilateral agency also lowered growth projections for 2025-26 to 7% from…

[kevintryan]

The Menace of Cyber-Attacks

Low-cost, high-impact cyber-attacks transcend national borders. Cyber risk is a critical concern for both the economy and political life Just this month, several major London hospitals were subject to a cyber-attack that created a “major IT incident” and severely reduced the capacity of pathology services. It was a ransomware attack reported to have been carried out by a Russian criminal…

[milfstalin]

Moody's rating agency downgraded Israel's credit rating by two levels on 27 September, saying “geopolitical risk has intensified significantly” amid Israel's recent escalation of its war on Lebanon and its ongoing war on Gaza.

“The key driver for the downgrade is our view that geopolitical risk has intensified significantly further, to very high levels, with material negative consequences for Israel's creditworthiness in both the near and longer term,” Moody's said.

The downgrade lowers Israel's rating at Moody's from the A2 level to the Baa1 level, shared by Spain and Bulgaria.

“The ratings would likely be downgraded further, potentially by multiple notches, if the current heightened tensions with Hezbollah turned into a full-scale conflict,” the agency added.

The change, which includes giving Israel's economy a “negative” outlook, may lead to fewer investments in Israel and force the government to borrow money at higher interest rates to finance the national debt.

The report stated further that “with heightened security risks (a social consideration), we no longer expect a swift and strong economic recovery as in previous conflicts.”

[...]

Despite significant financial support from the US, the war has been a burden on Israel's treasury and economy.

Itai Ater, another economist and founder of the left-leaning Israeli Economists' Forum for Democracy, wrote on X that the downgrade “reflects the grim condition of the Israeli economy and the rapid decline since January 2023,” when Netanyahu's government won rose to power.

“The report uses moderate language but the message is unequivocal: The Israeli government is crushing its democratic institutions and dragging us decades back in time,” Ater added.

30 Sept 2024

[reasonandempathy]

It is truly absolutely insane seeing exactly how much Zionism continues to be a prevalent and major, supported ideology, especially in and around Israel's current behavior of the ethnic cleansing/genocide in Gaza and even the saber-rattling about Iran, which Netanyahu has been trying to start a war with for decades now. This war is in nobody's interest, at all, period, unless that person is Bibi Netanyahu, a direct political ally of his, or is so committed to enacting violence (on either side) that they will almost happily see Israel and Palestine as a whole turn into a literally bloody wasteland.

Even limiting every other article/source to just Israeli press, Israel's attack on Iran is delegitimizing everything it's saying or proposing about attacking Rafah.

Taking over the Gaza Strip, the great "ground operation" that has left more than 34,000 Palestinian dead, was born in a diplomatic and strategic vacuum, with no plan for the "day after," no exit plan, and conducted by improvisation, with daily events replacing the empty square called "strategy" and dictating its content. The same is true for the killing of the Al Quds Force commander in Syria and Lebanon, Hassan Mahdavi (also known as Mohammad Reza Zahedi), which was not based on an understanding or recognition of the expected Iranian response, and which forced Israel to hurriedly built a response to the response – which also is not anchored in a strategy that takes into account the global and regional repercussions, especially the repercussions on Israel's own security.

The war and IDF are carrying out what is best for Netanyahu's political interests, not for Israel itself.

But history has shown us that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a world champion in missing opportunities. There have been so many since the first week after the atrocities of October 7. That's the problem with a striker who plays for himself. He's only concerned about the glory from scoring goals. He doesn't care if his team suffers a stinging loss. That's how it is when your eyes are constantly on the wrong ball – political survival, not Israel's interest. ... The Bibi-ist social media was beaming with unabashed pride on Sunday: If only Netanyahu had been woken up in time on October 7, Israel would have been protected from its enemies and everything would be beautiful.

Bibi's actions and escalation are actively endangering Israel as a whole.

Israel is facing a historic defeat, the bitter fruit of years of disastrous policies. If the country now prioritizes vengeance over its own best interests, it will put itself and the entire region in grave danger Unfortunately, Benjamin Netanyahu and his political partners have repeatedly proven that they are unfit to make such decisions. The policies they pursued for many years have brought Israel to the brink of destruction. So far, they have shown no regret for their past mistakes, and no inclination to change direction. If they continue to shape policy, they will lead us and the whole Middle East to perdition. Instead of rushing into a new war with Iran, we should first learn the lessons of Israel's failures over the past six months of war.

The war and escalation are actively harming the Israeli economy on the long-term

Ratings agency S&P Global cut Israel's long-term ratings to A-plus from AA-minus overnight into Friday, the confrontation with Iran heightened last weekend and amidst the already elevated geopolitical risks for Israel. In addition to the downgrade, S&P also published a negative outlook, meaning the agency believes it's likely there will be an additional downgrade in the future. S&P typically updates credit ratings on predetermined dates, with the exception being if an urgent update is needed. Israel's update was due to be published on May 10, and the agency said the political and security situation led to the urgent update. "We forecast that Israel's general government deficit will widen to 8 percent of GDP in 2024, mostly as a result of increased defense spending," S&P Global said in its statement.

Israeli courts are calling bullshit on the government's claims that they're taking steps to address the famine.

"This is the opposite of how people see the High Court of Justice. People think the state comes to court trembling with the fear of being reprimanded. But actually the court is very careful not to intervene." But the Supreme Court – serving as the High Court of Justice because it was responding to a petition – found a way to intervene. It didn't lash out at the state, it opted for soft activism. "The court, in its wisdom, entered through the opening that the state gave it," says Eyal Benvenisti, an international law professor at Cambridge University. "The justices told the state, 'You're saying you're taking steps; let's hear what you're really doing. And what you can do more of." ... Cohen-Lifshitz wondered why the state was so proud of its coordination with the aid agencies if in the same breath it rejected their reports about the acute humanitarian crisis in northern Gaza, arguing that these reports are based on Hamas' phony numbers.

Israeli claims that they're not going to takeover Gaza are laughably at face value, especially since the IDF is actively building fortifications in Gaza.

Satellite images and photographs shared on social media show extensive development and construction at two outposts the Israel Defense Forces is building on the strategic road that divides the Gaza Strip into two. The army calls the construction of these outposts in what it calls the "Netzarim Corridor" as a long-term achievement. The whole corridor is referred to as something that is here to stay. The Netzarim Road, in the heart of this corridor, bisects the Gaza Strip. The outposts were built along this road, which is intended to enable the IDF to control the movement of Palestinians from the south to the north and launch operations in different parts of the Strip.

And, of course, it isn't actually about Gaza or Hamas at all. Israel is still building new, Jewish communities in Jerusalem. There are many more to come.

A report by Ir Amim and Bimkom nonprofits, said that since October 7, planning agencies have advanced 17 master plans for Jews in East Jerusalem that encompass 8,434 apartments. The plans for almost 3,000 of these apartments have been submitted by the custodian general, which is responsible for managing Jewish assets abandoned when Jews were forced out of eastern Jerusalem during the 1948 War of Independence. Some other plans would expand large Jewish neighborhoods in East Jerusalem, like Gilo and Pisgat Ze'ev, by replacing low-rise buildings with high-rise ones. According to the Peace Now nonprofit, the invitation to bid shows that "Israel is advancing new settlements in East Jerusalem at top speed, and thereby perpetuating the bloody conflict with the Palestinians and the countries of the region."

And of course they're still speeding along any and every action to kick more Palestinians out of their homes, legal opinions be damned.

A court ruled that the Palestinian family's home is owned by a right-wing Jewish group that acquired the interests of a Jewish trust that bought the site prior to Israel's establishment in 1948. The Israeli justice who ordered the eviction stated he's not waiting for the attorney general's legal opinion

[rjzimmerman]

Excerpt from this Op-Ed from the Scientific American:

Copper and potash might not seem like the stuff of high drama, but controversy over critical minerals and the question of whether some should truly be considered “critical” is playing out in the halls of Congress right now. A rush for mining mundane metals and salts isn’t about moving the U.S. toward a renewable energy economy either. It’s about powerful corporate interests finding underhanded ways to circumvent scientific assessments and environmental regulations.

Their goal: big profits for a lucky few.

The worldwide move toward a green economy has triggered calls for easing mining of rare earth minerals, ones essential to modern devices and electrical infrastructure. But a flurry of bills that some members of Congress hope to push by year’s end focus on changes to the laws that govern mining and critical mineral designations. Without regard for the status of how critical—or not—a material actually is, however, this tranche of legislation simply allows the mining industry to co-opt the green economy moment. And while the industry seeks to profit, communities and the environment will ultimately pay.

To most people, a critical mineral might simply be a metal that’s important for everyday needs such as smartphones, electric cars and renewable energy. In the mining industry, however, the U.S. government designating a mineral as “critical” can bring significant benefits, including tax credits and expedited permitting allowed under federal environmental laws. But what the mining industry believes to be important or profitable may not be legally “critical”—and that distinction is something the industry hopes the public won’t recognize.

When it comes to energy transition materials, the term “critical” has a specific meaning. Under current law, the Department of Energy assesses which energy sector materials have a high risk of supply chain disruption and regularly updates its “critical materials” list accordingly. Meanwhile the U.S. Geological Survey assesses which subset of “critical minerals,” many mined overseas, are essential to U.S. economic and national security. Each of these federal agencies conducts rigorous, factual and scientific reviews to determine which materials should qualify as “critical.” Conflating these lists and various meanings of “critical” will only obscure our government’s ability to administer the appropriate policy for a specific supply chain.

For example, two of the most problematic bills would effectively designate copper, potash and phosphates as critical minerals—despite the fact that all of these are currently mined in North America and relatively abundant. Moreover, copper is already on the Department of Energy’s critical materials list to address supply chain concerns for the energy sector. But copper is not on the U.S. Geological Survey’s list, because it does not degrade in reprocessing, more than 30 percent of domestic consumption comes from recycled scrap, and the supply chain is not geopolitically at risk.

Mining is needed for a clean energy transition, but poking random holes in a regulatory process that is based on factual and scientific assessments isn’t going to get us there any faster. There’s just no good reason for Congress to rush poorly conceived mining projects. If Congress overrides the U.S. Geological Survey’s factual determinations, certainly there would be more expedited permitting for domestic copper mines. But the potential supply chain benefits of domestically mining more copper are marginal. And such fast-tracking would put towns and homes on the front lines of mining and the environment at great risk.

[mariacallous]

If the past five years of EU tech rules could take human form, they would embody Thierry Breton. The bombastic commissioner, with his swoop of white hair, became the public face of Brussels’ irritation with American tech giants, touring Silicon Valley last summer to personally remind the industry of looming regulatory deadlines.

Combative and outspoken, Breton warned that Apple had spent too long “squeezing” other companies out of the market. In a case against TikTok, he emphasized, “our children are not guinea pigs for social media.”

His confrontational attitude to the CEOs themselves was visible in his posts on X. In the lead-up to Musk’s interview with Donald Trump, Breton posted a vague but threatening letter on his account reminding Musk there would be consequences if he used his platform to amplify “harmful content.” Last year, he published a photo with Mark Zuckerberg, declaring a new EU motto of “move fast to fix things”—a jibe at the notorious early Facebook slogan. And in a 2023 meeting with Google CEO Sundar Pichai, Breton reportedly got him to agree to an “AI pact” on the spot, before tweeting the agreement, making it difficult for Pichai to back out.

Yet in this week’s reshuffle of top EU jobs, Breton resigned—a decision he alleged was due to backroom dealing between EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and French president Emmanuel Macron.

“I'm sure [the tech giants are] happy Mr. Breton will go, because he understood you have to hit shareholders’ pockets when it comes to fines,” says Umberto Gambini, a former adviser at the EU Parliament and now a partner at consultancy Forward Global.

Breton is to be effectively replaced by the Finnish politician Henna Virkkunen, from the center-right EPP Group, who has previously worked on the Digital Services Act.

“Her style will surely be less brutal and maybe less visible on X than Breton,” says Gambini. “It could be an opportunity to restart and reboot the relations.”

Little is known about Virkkunen’s attitude to Big Tech’s role in Europe’s economy. But her role has been reshaped to fit von der Leyen’s priorities for her next five-year term. While Breton was the commissioner for the internal market, Virkkunen will work with the same team but operate under the upgraded title of executive vice president for tech sovereignty, security and democracy, meaning she reports directly to von der Leyen.

The 27 commissioners, who form von der Leyen’s new team and are each tasked with a different area of focus, still have to be approved by the European Parliament—a process that could take weeks.

“[Previously], it was very, very clear that the commission was ambitious when it came to thinking about and proposing new legislation to counter all these different threats that they had perceived, especially those posed by big technology platforms,” says Mathias Vermeulen, public policy director at Brussels-based consultancy AWO. “That is not a political priority anymore, in the sense that legislation has been adopted and now has to be enforced.”

Instead Virkkunen’s title implies the focus has shifted to technology’s role in European security and the bloc’s dependency on other countries for critical technologies like chips. “There's this realization that you now need somebody who can really connect the dots between geopolitics, security policy, industrial policy, and then the enforcement of all the digital laws,” he adds. Earlier in September, a much anticipated report by economist and former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi warned that Europe would risk becoming “vulnerable to coercion” on the world stage if it did not jump-start growth. “We must have more secure supply chains for critical raw materials and technologies,” he said.

Breton is not the only prolific Big Tech adversary to be replaced this week—in a planned exit. Gone, too, is Margrethe Vestager, who had garnered a reputation as one of the world’s most powerful antitrust regulators after 10 years in the post. Last week, Vestager celebrated a victory in a case forcing Apple to pay $14.4 billion in back taxes to Ireland, a case once referred to by Apple CEO Tim Cook as “total political crap”.

Vestager—who vied with Breton for the reputation of lead digital enforcer (technically she was his superior)—will now be replaced by the Spanish socialist Teresa Ribera, whose role will encompass competition as well as Europe’s green transition. Her official title will be executive vice-president-designate for a clean, just and competitive transition, making it likely Big Tech will slip down the list of priorities. “[Ribera’s] most immediate political priority is really about setting up this clean industrial deal,” says Vermuelen.

Political priorities might be shifting, but the frenzy of new rules introduced over the past five years will still need to be enforced. There is an ongoing legal battle over Google’s $1.7 billion antitrust fine. Apple, Google, and Meta are under investigation for breaches of the Digital Markets Act. Under the Digital Services Act, TikTok, Meta, AliExpress, as well as Elon Musk’s X are also subject to probes. “It is too soon for Elon Musk to breathe a sigh of relief,” says J. Scott Marcus, senior fellow at think tank Bruegel. He claims that Musk's alleged practices at X are likely to run afoul of the Digital Services Act (DSA) no matter who the commissioner is.

“The tone of the confrontation might become a bit more civil, but the issues are unlikely to go away.”

[darkmaga-returns]

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has warned that Europe’s bolstering welfare state is at risk due to its declining economic environment. Lagarde said the EU “will not be able to generate the wealth we will need to meet our rising spending needs to ensure our security, combat climate change and protect the environment.”

Rather than considering whether these measures are essential, Lagarde believes that the European Union must work to integrate all member state economies into one to prevent “fragmenting into rival blocs, where attitudes toward free trade are being called into question.” A unified Europe to end all wars with a uniform currency. The euro was doomed to fail from the onset. Everything from failing to consolidate member debt to ignoring sovereignty spelled trouble.

The structure of the euro is fundamentally flawed. To put it in American terms, it would be  as if all fifty states were able to issue federal bonds. It would be total, absolute chaos. To be politically correct, they said that since every member issues its own federal-type bonds, they all have to be reserves, and the large banks have to fairly allocate them among themselves.

Lately, we have seen European policies come under fire amid the Ukraine war. Some members want to ship off as much in aid as permitted, while others want to hold off. Some members want to focus on national security while others support open borders. Europe The entire premise of creating the European Union was really to eliminate democracy —  those in Brussels are unelected and above each member’s elected officials. On nation can say they don’t want to fund climate change initiatives but it matters not as the EU forces its will on everyone.

“We can no longer see ourselves as a loose club of independent economies,” Lagarde warned. Yet, Europe is a continent of vastly different and proud cultures. You cannot force a German to hold the same ideals as a Greek or expect every member nation to blindly agree to whatever proposal comes down from the unelected officials in Brussels.

There are so many fundamentals working against the EU from social to geopolitical issues. Socrates indicated a panic cycle and high volatility coming into play in the euro around 2026 and into 2027. We see a massive turning point in 2029, and although I hate to be the bearer of bad news, I simply do not see how the euro or European Union can survive. CENTRALIZED CONTROL NEVER WORKS!

[sataniccapitalist]

“The global economy teeters on a precipice, struggling against inflation, surging energy costs, and supply chain disruptions, all worsened by ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

“Central banks’ attempts to rein in inflation through interest rate hikes bring a real risk of recession. Developing nations, already drowning in debt, face the spectre of financial collapse, widening the gap between the affluent and the impoverished.”

[lizseyi]

How To Protect Your Investments In The Midst Of Increasing Talk Of Interest Rate Cuts – SDAX

Amid increasing talk of cutting interest rates, how can you protect your investments?

 Amid a cooling US jobs market and declining inflation, it now seems almost certain that the Federal Reserve (‘the Fed’) will cut interest rates in September. The Fed has continued to raise the federal funds rate – the interest rate it charges to its member banks, and a key lever for controlling money supply and inflation – for an unprecedented 11 times over a 16-month period.

Concerns about a potential recession have also eased considerably in a short space of time. Investors have recently been pricing in a “Goldilocks” scenario of strong growth with moderate inflation. This came after a period when analysts were questioning whether the Fed had risked the US economy slipping into recession due to its slowness in cutting rates.

The Bank of England, meanwhile, spent two years putting up interest rates at nearly every meeting, and then for a year after that, left them at a painfully high level for many households and businesses. Finally, on 1st August, a rate cut was confirmed, amid speculation that they could be reduced further in the near future.

Moves that investors might look to make now

So, on a backdrop of ongoing or probable rate cuts among the world’s central banks, investors might reasonably ask what steps they can take to help protect their investments during this period. An investment advisor might suggest that such individuals consider the following moves:

Acquiring gold

Gold has recently managed to hit a new all-time high, while relatively little attention was given in the financial press. And yet, the fundamentals of gold still persist: this precious metal serves as a safe haven asset with value that endures even during times of geopolitical uncertainty and currency instability.

Gold’s momentum lately has been fuelled by expectations of the Fed cutting rates soon, along with a slight dip in the dollar, and continuing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. So, from both a near-term and longer-term perspective, there are solid grounds to be bullish on gold.

Investing in high-yield bonds

As reported by The Wall Street Journal, “2024 has been Wall Street’s year of the bond fund … bonds are paying their highest yields in a generation”.

This observation tallies with the historical tendency for high-yield bonds to perform strongly during times of declining interest rates, when investors tend to look to securities that can provide a more generous return. The recent situation marks quite the contrast with 2022, when the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes clobbered US bond prices.

Tapping into the REIT sector

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are companies operating across a broad range of property sectors; they own, operate, or finance income-producing real estate. Investing in REITs, then, provides investors with a means of generating income from real estate without the need to directly purchase, manage, or finance properties themselves.

The last few years of inflation and high-interest rate environment have presented major challenges to REITs. However, with the fading of those headwinds, many experts have rightly pointed to REITs as an investment product to own right now.

With the REIT sector closely linked to the debt markets, such companies will stand to benefit as borrowing costs fall. 

[tmarshconnors]

STOP HELPING UKRAINE!

The war between Russia and Ukraine has dragged on for over a year now, and the West, particularly the United States and the United Kingdom, has poured billions into military aid, equipment, and financial assistance for Ukraine. The argument has been that Ukraine needs our support to defend itself against Russian aggression, which, in theory, could pose a broader threat to Europe and even global security. But is this endless funding truly in the best interest of our nations? I argue that it is not.

Unintended Consequences: Economic Strain on the West

Let’s start with the practical issue: the economic toll on our countries. We are facing significant domestic challenges – from economic recessions and rising inflation to unemployment and energy crises. Yet, despite these struggles, billions of taxpayer dollars and pounds continue to flow out to fund a conflict halfway across the world.

Consider the impact on everyday citizens. Energy prices have skyrocketed, in part because of sanctions on Russian oil and gas, but also due to our funding of this seemingly never-ending conflict. Instead of investing in infrastructure, healthcare, or education at home, we’re propping up a country that, quite frankly, needs to take responsibility for its own survival.

What’s Really at Stake?

While it's easy to frame this war as a moral crusade against tyranny, it’s far more complex than that. Ukraine is not a perfect democracy, and its issues with corruption are well-documented. Are we truly supporting a nation based on democratic ideals, or are we merely caught in a geopolitical tug-of-war with Russia? Either way, the continued funneling of funds is draining resources that could be better spent elsewhere.

Moreover, the West has already armed Ukraine to the teeth, providing advanced weaponry and training. The Ukrainian military is now well-equipped to hold its own. So why are we still providing an endless cash flow? At what point do we say, "Enough is enough"?

Ukraine's Responsibility to Defend Itself

At some point, we must allow Ukraine to stand on its own two feet. Nations throughout history have had to fend for themselves in times of crisis, and Ukraine should be no exception. This is their fight, after all. If they wish to preserve their sovereignty and independence, it’s their duty to do so.

One might argue that cutting off funding would be abandoning Ukraine to a Russian takeover. But that's an oversimplified view. Ukraine has proven its resilience time and time again. They have the will to fight; what they now need is the determination to do so without relying on endless Western support. The question isn't whether they can defend themselves – it's whether they will if left to their own devices.

Western Nations Need to Prioritize Their Own Citizens

The well-being of our own citizens should always be our primary concern. Our governments are elected to serve ourinterests, not to act as the world's police force or charity. With millions struggling to make ends meet, is it really fair to continue sending our hard-earned money to a foreign conflict?

We need to refocus on issues that matter at home: rebuilding our economies, strengthening national security, and addressing the energy crisis. Instead of being distracted by far-off wars, let’s direct our efforts toward solving our domestic problems.

The Risk of Prolonging the Conflict

Finally, there's the risk that by continuing to fund Ukraine, we are merely prolonging the conflict. If both sides know that Western money and weapons will keep flowing, where's the incentive for peace? By stepping back, we encourage diplomatic solutions rather than an endless military stalemate.

It’s time for the West to rethink its role in the Russia-Ukraine war. While supporting Ukraine was initially seen as a moral and strategic necessity, the continued funding is proving to be more of a burden than a benefit. Ukraine has the means to defend itself. Now it must find the resolve to do so independently. Our priorities should shift back to addressing the needs of our citizens, and it's high time we let Ukraine face Russia on its own terms.

After all, every nation must ultimately be responsible for its own survival.

[unpluggedfinancial]

How Bitcoin Redefines Trust in Global Trade

For centuries, trust has been a cornerstone of global trade. Whether trading across borders or within nations, businesses have historically relied on governments, banks, and institutions to act as intermediaries, providing the necessary oversight and guarantees that transactions would be honored. But as our world becomes more digital and interconnected, the limitations and inefficiencies of these traditional systems are becoming increasingly evident. Enter Bitcoin—a decentralized currency that is fundamentally transforming the very nature of trust in global trade.

The Role of Trust in Traditional Trade

In the current global trade system, trust is largely built on central authorities—governments, central banks, and financial institutions. These intermediaries ensure stability, enforce contracts, and manage currencies. While this system has worked to some extent, it’s fraught with problems: corruption, inefficiencies, inflation, and geopolitical risks. For example, trade disputes can escalate into economic sanctions or currency manipulation, which can cripple businesses. Trust in these institutions can falter, and when it does, the global economy feels the effects.

Moreover, relying on the USD as the global reserve currency has its drawbacks. The USD's value fluctuates based on the policies of the U.S. government, including money printing, interest rate changes, and other interventions. This introduces volatility into global markets and trade relationships, often to the detriment of smaller, emerging economies.

Bitcoin as a Trustless System

Bitcoin offers a radically different approach. Built on blockchain technology, Bitcoin eliminates the need for intermediaries. Instead of relying on a centralized authority to verify and approve transactions, Bitcoin operates through a decentralized network where transactions are publicly recorded and verified by code. This concept of "trustless" transactions means that participants don't need to rely on a central authority to validate their exchanges.

By removing the need for middlemen, Bitcoin reduces transaction costs, increases transparency, and provides a level of security that is nearly impossible to breach. This decentralization also means that no single entity—government or financial institution—can manipulate the currency for its own gain, making it a more stable and reliable form of value transfer in global trade.

Decentralization and Its Impact on Global Trade

The decentralized nature of Bitcoin is already reshaping trade by enabling peer-to-peer transactions across borders. With no central authority dictating terms or controlling the flow of money, individuals and businesses can transact directly, quickly, and securely. This is particularly important in emerging markets, where trust in financial institutions is often low or nonexistent.

For example, in countries experiencing hyperinflation or economic instability, Bitcoin provides a way for businesses to engage in global trade without relying on a failing national currency. It also opens doors for the unbanked—those who don't have access to traditional financial services—to participate in the global economy.

Real-World Applications of Bitcoin in Trade

We are already seeing Bitcoin’s impact on global trade in various sectors. Cross-border payments and remittances have become faster, cheaper, and more secure through Bitcoin. Companies are starting to use Bitcoin as part of their supply chains or as a payment option to mitigate currency risk and reduce reliance on traditional banking systems.

Countries like El Salvador have already embraced Bitcoin as legal tender, providing a real-world experiment in how Bitcoin can drive economic activity and improve trade relations. As more countries and companies adopt Bitcoin, we will likely see this trend continue and grow.

The Future of Trade in a Bitcoin Economy

As Bitcoin adoption grows, the future of global trade could be vastly different from what we see today. With Bitcoin’s fixed supply and decentralized network, trade will no longer be subject to the whims of central banks or governments. Transactions will be faster, more secure, and far less costly, leading to an overall more efficient global marketplace.

More importantly, trust will no longer be placed in fallible institutions but in technology and code. This shift could open up global trade to new participants, especially those in countries with unstable currencies or restrictive financial regulations.

The Market with Bitcoin as a Denominator

One of the most profound changes Bitcoin could bring to global trade is how markets behave with a true hard asset like Bitcoin as the denominator, compared to the USD. Currently, the USD's value is constantly influenced by inflation, monetary policy, and the actions of the U.S. government. This introduces distortions in pricing across global markets.

In contrast, Bitcoin’s fixed supply means there’s no central authority devaluing the currency by printing more of it. The market would adjust based on real supply and demand dynamics, leading to more stable and predictable pricing. Goods, services, and assets would be priced more accurately, free from the distortions caused by inflation or interest rate changes. Essentially, a Bitcoin standard could allow for a freer, more transparent market, where prices reflect true value, not manipulated fiat prices.

With a hard asset like Bitcoin as the global standard, we could see a deflationary effect over time, where the purchasing power of Bitcoin increases. This would encourage savings and long-term thinking, reshaping how businesses plan and execute global trade strategies.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is poised to redefine the trust model in global trade. By decentralizing trust and removing intermediaries, Bitcoin enables faster, more secure, and transparent transactions across borders. It also shifts the foundation of global trade from government-controlled currencies to a decentralized, hard asset that is beyond manipulation. The shift to a Bitcoin-denominated world will challenge the status quo, but the benefits it offers—stability, fairness, and efficiency—are too great to ignore.

As we move closer to a Bitcoin standard, the future of global trade will be built on truth, not fiat manipulation, ushering in a new era of financial sovereignty and fairness.

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[see-throughthelines]

Raising awareness for chronic health conditions

The Global Risks Report examines some of the most serious threats that the world may see in the next ten years, considering the speed at which technology is developing, economic instability, global warming, and conflict. Weakened economies and societies may only need the tiniest shock to push past the very edge of resilience when it comes under pressure.

The 19th GRR published by the World Economic Forum informs us about all possible major dangers to humans and human development. Amongst the social issues, the rise of chronic diseases is one of them that terrifies the common people, as it can affect anyone from any social or economic background alike. Raising awareness regarding the preventative measures of chronic conditions is imperative for the risks to be dealt with.

While some of the hazards we face are well-known from human history, like pandemics and geopolitical wars, others are relatively new and rapidly changing, including changes in the Earth system or unfavourable effects from the latest technologies. Multiple global risks are connected with each other and may have adverse effects on humanity– clawing at our feeble shields and decreasing our ability to counter them.

Chronic illness is mainly referred to any illness that lasts beyond 21 to 30 days. Some of these are hypertension, diabetes, cancer, cardiac diseases, stroke, psychological disorders, and many more. As mentioned by Md Wasim Mondal, a nurse working in the Apollo Hospital, chronic diseases are mainly caused due to unhealthy lifestyle led by a person. He stated 3 major reasons due to which a person might develop a chronic illness: diet, lifestyle, and stress. There is no definite cure for chronic diseases but with certain measures, they can be controlled.

Some of the preventative measures according to Dr. Jigar Nayak, who is an MS surgeon, include exercising, doing yoga, maintaining a proper diet, and managing stress effectively. It is also better to replace carbonated drinks with organic beverages like coconut water and lemon water. He stated that if someone is already suffering from a chronic disease; along with the above-mentioned points they also need to go for regular checkups, have protein-rich food, and refrain from smoking & drinking.

Dr. Jigar Nayak shared one of his experiences with a patient who was suffering from chronic disease. According to the doctor when the patient came to him for the first time, they considered his condition to be jaundice as the symptoms mainly included yellow eyes, drastic fluctuation in weight, and many more. However, the prescribed medications did not make any impact on his condition. Thereafter they made further tests and concluded that he was suffering from Pancreatic Cancer. Since there is no cure for this disease, all that the doctor and the medical staff could do was to reduce his suffering. They assisted the man to improve by putting him on a better diet, encouraging him to exercise, and in fact assisting him to lead a healthier life. “You are what you eat.” said Dr. Jigar Nayak implying that to lead a healthy lifestyle one must eat healthy and exercise regularly.

To conclude, a healthy lifestyle and a balanced diet must be followed by every individual to prevent the looming danger of chronic conditions. Stress management and minimising harmful practices, primarily smoking and drinking are necessary. It is worth mentioning that the occupation of many is a great source of stress, and prevents some from having healthier lifestyles as well. How corporations and organisations shall make changes to ensure the health of their employees should be discussed and materialised.

*image taken from mantracare.org

*image taken from healthfederation.org

SOURCES:

*Interviwee 1: Md Wasim Mondal (nurse)

*Interviwee 2: Dr. Jigar Nayak (surgeon)

*Global risk report 2024

[inside-insightss]

Global Market Meltdown: What Caused the Panic?

Lately, there's been a lot of buzz about the significant downturn in global markets. It's hard not to notice when investors from Japan to India and the United States are losing billions. I wanted to dig deeper into what exactly caused this economic upheaval, so I watched an insightful video that breaks down the primary reasons behind this panic. Here’s a more detailed look at the key points discussed.

Global Market Downturn

The global markets have been on a rollercoaster, but lately, it's been a steep downhill ride. From Japan to India, and even the mighty United States, markets have experienced significant declines. Investors are feeling the heat, with billions of dollars seemingly evaporating overnight. The sense of unease is palpable, and everyone is asking the same question: what's causing this chaos?

Impact on India

India, with its rapidly growing economy, hasn't been immune to this downturn. In fact, the Indian markets saw a substantial loss, with approximately 17 lakh crores wiped off, equating to over $2 billion in a single day. That's an astronomical figure, and it's left many investors and analysts scratching their heads.

Weak Corporate Earnings

One of the primary reasons for this downturn in India is the disappointing first-quarter results from the country’s top 50 companies. There was minimal growth and a decline in profits, which has spooked investors. When corporate giants fail to meet expectations, the ripple effect can be severe, leading to a widespread market selloff.

Rupee Devaluation

Adding to the woes, the Indian rupee hit an all-time low against the US dollar, trading at nearly 84 rupees per dollar. A weak rupee makes imports more expensive and exacerbates inflation, which in turn can erode consumer confidence and spending. This devaluation has added another layer of complexity to an already volatile market.

Recession Fears in the US

Over in the United States, the fear of a looming recession is causing major jitters. Rising unemployment and a slowdown in the manufacturing sector are key indicators that all is not well. Recent data shows that 4.3% of Americans are unemployed, the highest rate in nearly three years. This spike in unemployment, coupled with other economic slowdowns, has investors on edge.

Manufacturing Slowdown

The US manufacturing sector, a critical component of the economy, has been experiencing a significant slowdown. This sector's health often serves as a bellwether for the broader economy. When manufacturing slows down, it not only impacts the sector itself but also sends shockwaves through supply chains, affecting various other industries.

Tensions in West Asia

The geopolitical landscape is another major factor contributing to the market instability. The worsening situation in West Asia, particularly involving Iran and its proxies targeting Israel, has escalated tensions. These geopolitical conflicts create uncertainty and risk, which markets despise. The potential for conflict in this volatile region adds to the already heavy load of negative sentiment.

Impact on Global Markets

The negative sentiment isn't confined to India and the US; it's a global phenomenon. Markets worldwide are facing headwinds. The decline in oil prices and a significant selloff in cryptocurrencies are clear indicators that investors are skittish. The interconnectedness of global markets means that turmoil in one region can quickly spread, creating a domino effect.

Decline in Oil Prices

Oil prices have been another critical factor. Traditionally, oil is seen as a barometer for global economic health. A decline in oil prices can signal weakening demand and economic slowdown. This recent drop in oil prices has only added to the growing list of concerns for investors.

Cryptocurrency Selloff

Cryptocurrencies, once the darlings of the investment world, have not been spared either. A significant selloff in cryptocurrencies has been observed, which further highlights the risk-averse sentiment prevailing among investors. The volatility of these digital assets can be both a cause and a consequence of broader market instability.

Climate Change Concerns

Interestingly, the video also touched on an often-overlooked aspect: climate change. While not directly related to the market meltdown, the mention of climate change serves as a reminder that long-term environmental issues can and will have economic repercussions. The call for action, starting with individual efforts like planting trees, underscores the need for a collective approach to combat these challenges.

Individual Efforts

It's easy to feel helpless in the face of such overwhelming economic and environmental issues. However, small actions, such as planting trees and adopting sustainable practices, can collectively make a significant impact. The idea is to start a revolution from the ground up, emphasizing that everyone has a role to play.

Conclusion

The global market meltdown is a multifaceted issue with no single cause. From weak corporate earnings and currency devaluation in India to recession fears in the US and geopolitical tensions in West Asia, several factors have converged to create the current economic turmoil. The interconnected nature of global markets means that instability in one region can quickly spread, affecting economies worldwide.

For those looking to navigate these turbulent times, staying informed is crucial. Websites like TickerInvest.com provide invaluable insights into stock market investments and the latest financial news. Their expert analysis can help you make informed decisions and stay ahead of the curve.

FAQs

What caused the global market meltdown in 2024? The meltdown was caused by a combination of factors, including weak corporate earnings in India, recession fears in the US, geopolitical tensions in West Asia, and a decline in oil prices and cryptocurrencies.

How has the downturn impacted India? India saw a significant loss, with approximately 17 lakh crores wiped off the market. Contributing factors include weak corporate earnings and the devaluation of the rupee.

Why are recession fears rising in the US? Rising unemployment and a slowdown in the manufacturing sector are key indicators of potential recession, causing concern among investors.

What role do geopolitical tensions play in market instability? Tensions in regions like West Asia create uncertainty and risk, which negatively impact market stability and investor confidence.

How are oil prices and cryptocurrencies affecting the market? A decline in oil prices and a selloff in cryptocurrencies reflect broader economic concerns and risk-averse sentiment among investors.

What can individuals do to help combat climate change? Individual efforts like planting trees and adopting sustainable practices can collectively make a significant impact in addressing climate change.

About TickerInvest.com

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[loneberry]

The new route Russia is using to export its oil to China. Unfortunately global warming and the melting of the icecaps only benefits Russia geopolitically. What’s the big deal? you might wonder. A 10-day reduction in transport time is huge when it comes to the velocity of capital. Power accrues to the nations that control key maritime trade routes.

*

Between climate change and the new Cold War, the future doesn’t look pretty. China’s economy is imploding thanks to their reliance on a debt-fueled real estate bonanza, their misguided zero COVID policy, and Xi Jinping’s head-scratchingly bad policies (and of course, his consolidation of power). Siding with Russia was a huge mistake… Now China’s biggest export markets are trying to decouple or at least diversify away from them. Youth unemployment is so bad in China (21%, but possibly significantly higher) that the government has decided to stop publishing such data. The Philippines and Vietnam are pivoting toward the US. South Korea and Japan are putting their long, historical feud aside to join forces against China. Japanese military neutrality is over. Meanwhile a tiny island called Taiwan makes over 92% of the world’s advanced semiconductors and will likely be invaded in our lifetime. Will an (economically) weakened China make it more or less likely that Xi will invade Taiwan? (Strongmen facing a domestic crisis and loss of popular support do often start wars as a kind of “gamble for resurrection,” but Xi might have become more risk adverse as he observes Russia’s debacle in Ukraine. Plus, an amphibious invasion is logistically extremely difficult to pull off.)

Defense spending worldwide is skyrocketing, climbing back toward Cold War levels. The lines on the map are hardening, particularly in the Asian/Pacific theater and the European theater. A nuclear trifecta of Russia-China-North Korea is emerging. Yes, it is a marriage of convenience, but quite a dangerous one given that Russia will likely transfer technology (specifically, platforms to deliver nuclear warheads) to North Korea in exchange for Soviet-compatible ammunition/arms to use in Ukraine. I hate feeling like the world is a frog getting boiled but as I finish this 26-part BBC documentary on World War I, I can’t help but feel that the geopolitical situation is very unstable.

Oh, the madness of nation states! Wake me up when it’s over.

[feedyourmind1031]

 Economic Overview: Key Market Developments

Critical Update

Sudden market shifts may occur due to significant events. Monitor trading positions and implement risk management strategies during these uncertain times.

Economic Overview

As we enter a new quarter, the market faces numerous challenges. Rising war tensions, de-dollarization efforts, and upcoming elections in the U.S., France, and Iran contribute to the uncertainty. Here’s a detailed analysis of these developments and their potential impacts.

Currency Shifts

Russia’s move to use the Chinese Yuan for international trade and the increase in gold reserves by central banks are noteworthy. While the Yuan may not replace the U.S. Dollar soon, these actions indicate strategic shifts. Gold purchases serve as a hedge against potential currency volatility.

Geopolitical Conflicts

Middle East: The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon has intensified, with Iran warning of severe retaliation if Lebanon is attacked. Daily strikes continue, and countries like the U.S. and Germany have advised their citizens to leave Lebanon.

South China Sea: On June 19, 2024, Chinese coast guard officers attacked Philippine military personnel near the Second Thomas Shoal, escalating tensions. The U.S. has reaffirmed its defense treaty with the Philippines, which could lead to military involvement if violence escalates.

Korean Peninsula: North and South Korea are on edge, with Russia signing a defense treaty with North Korea. Border incidents and threats over South Korea’s potential troop deployment to Ukraine have heightened tensions.

Nuclear Brinkmanship: France and Russia’s nuclear brinkmanship is a significant risk, with both countries attempting to establish deterrent boundaries.

Economic and Market Effects

These conflicts could alter monetary power dynamics and supply chains. Expect increased oil demand and gold purchases as safe-haven assets. Silver demand will also rise due to its military applications.

Diplomatic Relations

Zimbabwe and Zambia: Tensions are high as Zimbabwe aligns more closely with Russia, accusing the U.S. of militarizing Zambia.

Election Updates

Iran: Presidential elections are nearing completion as candidates drop out.

France: The first stage of snap parliamentary elections is complete.

U.S.: The first debate between Biden and Trump was contentious, adding to the uncertainty of the upcoming election.

Natural Disaster Considerations

While not detailed here, it’s crucial to consider the impact of natural disasters on economic activities and implement strong risk management.

Key Market Data and Analysis

Final GDP: Increased from 1.3% to 1.4%.

Unemployment: Fell by 3k more than forecasted, indicating a stronger U.S. economy.

Core PCE: Decreased from 0.3% to 0.1%.

Consumer Confidence: Fell but remained above forecasted numbers.

Housing Market: New home sales dropped significantly, while pending home sales improved slightly but missed expectations.

GOLD

Gold prices remain within a range, with resistance at 2431.705 and support at 2295.536. A bullish trend is expected despite fluctuations.

SILVER

Silver prices showed growth, reaching 29.900 before settling at 29.018. Resistance is expected at 29.900, but an overall upward trend is anticipated.

DXY (Dollar Index)

The dollar index showed growth but may face weakness with the anticipated September rate cut. A bearish outlook is expected.

GBPUSD

The pound remains within a range. With potential rate cuts in both the U.K. and the U.S., significant price changes are unlikely in the near term.

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar shows upward momentum but needs to break above 0.67142 to confirm this trend. Analysts predict rate cuts only in late 2025, potentially benefiting the currency.

NZDUSD

Similar to the Aussie dollar, the New Zealand dollar shows growth and may benefit from delayed rate cuts until late 2025.

EURUSD

The ECB’s cautious rate cut approach has weakened the Euro. Further cuts are expected but at a slower pace, indicating potential continued weakness.

USDJPY

Despite interventions, the USDJPY continues to grow. Watch for further interventions and economic data to gauge future movements.

USDCHF

The Swiss Franc fell after recent rate cuts. Further rate cuts are uncertain, making the USDCHF volatile.

USDCAD

The CAD showed weakness against the dollar, with analysts predicting further rate cuts. Price consolidation is expected as we await more data.

Stay informed and practice diligent risk management as we navigate these challenging market conditions. More updates to come.

[mariacallous]

What would you want to tell the next U.S. president? FP asked nine thinkers from around the world to write a letter with their advice for him or her.

Dear Madam or Mr. President,

Congratulations on your election as president of the United States. You take office at a moment of enormous consequence for a world directly impacted by the twin challenges of energy security and climate change.

Democrats and Republicans disagree on many aspects of energy and climate policy. Yet your administration has the chance to chart a policy path forward that unites both parties around core areas of agreement to advance the U.S. national interest.

First, all should agree that climate change is real and worsening. The escalating threat of climate change is increasingly evident to anyone walking the streets of Phoenix in the summer, buying flood insurance in southern Florida, farming rice in Vietnam, or laboring outdoors in Pakistan. This year will almost certainly surpass 2023 as the warmest year on record.

Second, just as the energy revolution that made the United States the world’s largest oil and gas producer strengthened it economically and geopolitically, so will ensuring U.S. leadership in clean energy technologies enhance the country’s geostrategic position. In a new era of great-power competition, China’s dominance in certain clean energy technologies—such as batteries and cobalt, lithium, graphite, and other critical minerals needed for clean energy products—threatens America’s economic competitiveness and the resilience of its energy supply chains. China’s overcapacity in manufacturing relative to current and future demand undermines investments in the United States and other countries and distorts demand signals that allow the most innovative and efficient firms to compete in the global market.

Third, using less oil in our domestic economy reduces our vulnerability to global oil supply disruptions, such as conflict in the Middle East or attacks on tankers in the Red Sea. Even with the surge in U.S. oil production, the price of oil is set in the global market, so drivers feel the pain of oil price shocks regardless of how much oil the United States imports. True energy security comes from using less, not just producing more.

Fourth, energy security risks extend beyond geopolitics and require investing adequately in domestic energy supply to meet changing circumstances. Today, grid operators and regulators are increasingly warning that the antiquated U.S. electricity system, already adjusting to handle rising levels of intermittent solar and wind energy, is not prepared for growing electricity demand from electric cars, data centers, and artificial intelligence. These reliability concerns were evident when an auction this summer set a price nine times higher than last year’s to be paid by the nation’s largest grid operator to power generators that ensure power will be available when needed. A reliable and affordable power system requires investments in grids as well as diverse energy resources, from cheap but intermittent renewables to storage to on-demand power plants.

Fifth, expanding clean energy sectors in the rest of the world is in the national interest because doing so creates economic opportunities for U.S. firms, diversifies global energy supply chains away from China, and enhances U.S. soft power in rapidly growing economies. (In much the same way, the Marshall Plan not only rebuilt a war-ravaged Europe but also advanced U.S. economic interests, countered Soviet influence, and helped U.S. businesses.) Doing so is especially important in rising so-called middle powers, such as Brazil, India, or Saudi Arabia, that are intent on keeping their diplomatic options open and aligning with the United States or China as it suits them transactionally.

To prevent China from becoming a superpower in rapidly growing clean energy sectors, and thereby curbing the benefits the United States derives from being such a large oil and gas producer, your administration should increase investments in research and development for breakthrough clean energy technologies and boost domestic manufacturing of clean energy. Toward these ends, your administration should quickly finalize outstanding regulatory guidance to allow companies to access federal incentives. Your administration should also work with the other side of the aisle to provide the market with certainty that long-term tax incentives for clean energy deployment—which have bipartisan support and have already encouraged historic levels of private investment—will remain in place. Finally, your administration should work with Congress to counteract the unfair competitive advantage that nations such as China receive by manufacturing industrial products with higher greenhouse gas emissions. Such a carbon import tariff, as proposed with bipartisan support, should be paired with a domestic carbon fee to harmonize the policy with that of other nations—particularly the European Union’s planned carbon border adjustment mechanism.

Your ability to build a strong domestic industrial base in clean energy will be aided by sparking more domestic clean energy use. This is already growing quickly as market forces respond to rapidly falling costs. Increasing America’s ability to produce energy is also necessary to maintain electricity grid reliability and meet the growing needs of data centers and AI. To do so, your administration should prioritize making it easier to build energy infrastructure at scale, which today is the greatest barrier to boosting U.S. domestic energy production. On average, it takes more than a decade to build a new high-voltage transmission line in the United States, and the current backlog of renewable energy projects waiting to be connected to the power grid is twice as large as the electricity system itself. It takes almost two decades to bring a new mine online for the metals and minerals needed for clean energy products, such as lithium and copper.

The permitting reform bill recently negotiated by Sens. Joe Manchin and John Barrasso is a good place to start, but much more needs to be done to reform the nation’s permitting system—while respecting the need for sound environmental reviews and the rights of tribal communities. In addition, reforming the way utilities operate in the United States can increase the incentives that power companies have not just to build new infrastructure but to use existing infrastructure more efficiently. Such measures include deploying batteries to store renewable energy and rewiring old transmission lines with advanced conductors that can double the amount of power they move.

Grid reliability will also require more electricity from sources that are available at all times, known as firm power. Your administration should prioritize making it easier to construct power plants with advanced nuclear technology—which reduce costs, waste, and safety concerns—and to produce nuclear power plant fuel in the United States. Doing so also benefits U.S. national security, as Russia is building more than one-third of new nuclear reactors around the world to bolster its geostrategic influence. While Russia has been the leading exporter of reactors, China has by far the most reactors under construction at home and is thus poised to play an even bigger role in the international market going forward. The United States also currently imports roughly one-fifth of its enriched uranium from Russia. To counter this by building a stronger domestic nuclear industry, your administration should improve the licensing and approval process of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and reform the country’s nuclear waste management policies. In addition to nuclear power, your administration should also make it easier to permit geothermal power plants, which today can play a much larger role in meeting the nation’s energy needs thanks to recent innovations using technology advanced by the oil and gas sector for shale development.

Even with progress on all these challenges, it is unrealistic to expect that the United States can produce all the clean energy products it needs domestically. It will take many years to diminish China’s lead in critical mineral supply, battery manufacturing, and solar manufacturing. The rate of growth needed in clean energy is too overwhelming, and China’s head start is too great to diversify supply chains away from it if the United States relies solely on domestic manufacturing or that of a few friendly countries. As a result, diminishing China’s dominant position requires that your administration expand economic cooperation and trade partnerships with a vast number of other nations. Contrary to today’s protectionist trends, the best antidote to concerns about China’s clean technology dominance is more trade, not less.

Your administration should also strengthen existing tools that increase the supply of clean energy products in emerging and developing economies in order to diversify supply chains and counter China’s influence in these markets. For example, the U.S. International Development Finance Corp. (DFC) can be a powerful tool to support U.S. investment overseas, such as in African or Latin American projects to mine, refine, and process critical minerals. As DFC comes up for reauthorization next year, you should work with Congress to provide DFC with more resources and also change the way federal budgeting rules account for equity investments; this would allow DFC to make far more equity investments even with its existing funding. Your administration can also use DFC to encourage private investment in energy projects in emerging and developing economies by reducing the risk investors face from fluctuations in local currency that can significantly limit their returns or discourage their investment from the start. The U.S. Export-Import Bank is another tool to support the export of U.S. clean tech by providing financing for U.S. goods and services competing with foreign firms abroad.

Despite this country’s deep divisions and polarization, leaders of both parties should agree that bolstering clean energy production in the United States and in a broad range of partner countries around the world is in America’s economic and security interests.

I wish you much success in this work, which will also be the country’s success.