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jonsafan-blog · 6 years ago

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Why Jon Didn’t Look For More Allies Before the Battle of the Bastards - and Why Political Jon is Right

Before Jon and Sansa set out to petition the houses of the North to join their war, they thought it would be difficult but not impossible. While Sansa definitely appeared the more optimistic and idealistic of the two, I think Jon also believed the houses would be open to joining their cause.

It makes sense. They were always told Northerners were different and more loyal.

However, that didn’t happen. They only managed to secure three houses in the show: The Mormonts, the Hornwoods, and the Mazins. Three small houses.

Crucially, we only see the petitioning of two houses: the Mormonts and the Glovers - a success and a failure.

It is heavily implied in the show and the books that the Mormonts are the Stark loyalists. It was, after all, little Lyanna Mormont who declared her loyalty to the Starks in a letter to Stannis, and in the television show, this loyalty is more prominent in the way Mormont hypes the Starks after retaking Winterfell.

However, winning over Lyanna was not guaranteed. What Jon and Sansa misunderstood and what Jorah did is that, ultimately, the common people don’t care about the games the high lords play. Neither do their vassals. We see this in the petitioning: Loyal Lyanna had very strong reservations. She was loyal to the Starks, but she didn’t want to fight a losing war and have her people slaughtered. She had already lost so many of her family members because of a war between high lords.

I don’t think she would have turned the Starks away for lodging and would have likely helped them find safety. However, I don’t believe she was willing to help them take back Winterfell. It was only on the word of Davos, an insignificant but practical man who understands the common people, that Lyanna was moved to protect her people from the Great War and support the Starks.

This was not an easy win. Jon and Sansa weren’t going to sway her, and Lyanna is very different from the other houses because she is a Mormont: her grandfather served on the Wall, made Jon his steward, and gave him Longclaw. She also likely received letters from the Wall that she trusted were true. She had every reason to believe in the Great War, while the other houses did not. She was likely looking for some leadership on the threat already.

But it wasn’t an easy win. It was a lucky win.

And Jon and Sansa were painfully aware of that.

Unfortunately, this would be reinforced by their failures. We are shown the particular failure of petitioning house Glover, and I think that scene marked a moment in Jon that caused him to reconsider their plan to canvas the North for allies - not because they failed, but because it marked the point in which Jon decided to stop petitioning.

Glover didn’t want to fight for the Starks. Like Lyanna, he wasn’t sure if Jon or Sansa were true Starks because of their pasts. They preferred to protect their own families than fight for a bastard and a formerly married daughter with uncertain allegiances.

And unlike Lyanna, they didn’t have a lucky connection to convince Glover to fight.

In that scene, Glover wasn’t cruel, but there was an undercurrent of hostility that was absent with Lyanna. When Jon and Sansa spoke with Glover, and Glover reminded them what could happen if Ramsay knew they were there, I think Jon realized that petitioning the houses was gambling with their lives.

Because they weren’t Ned or Robb, Jon and Sansa couldn’t just send a letter to Glover and demand his support. They also could not march their armies into his castle. That meant they had to meet him personally to convince him to fight for their cause.

That is very dangerous, and something Jon realized immediately, though it seemed rather lost on Sansa, if I’m being honest.

What if Glover had decided to take them hostage or kill them? Many fans think Jon was protective of Sansa here, and I agree. Meanwhile, Sansa seemed reluctant to let go of the idea that the North would die for the Starks.

The truth is they wouldn’t. People fight for their loved ones, not strangers or outsiders. The North loved Ned Stark - they didn’t know Jon and Sansa enough to love them. They wouldn’t not die for them.

However... the Wildlings? They would die for Jon Snow, because he was willing to die for them.

The failure to secure the Glovers was proof to Jon that no house in the North could be trusted. Already the Umbers and the Karstarks betrayed the Starks, one family even taking Rickon hostage and turning him over to the Glovers.

Deepwood Motte is to the west of Winterfell, and Jon almost certainly decided after that failure that he could not risk going to another house. instead, he marched the army towards Winterfell and would fight with what they had - because there was no other option.

Jon went into the Battle of the Bastards because he knew a truth Sansa was not yet willing to accept: they had no allies because they did not have the love of their allies. Sansa knows the importance of love in vassals, she doesn’t doesn’t understand that North’s love is something she herself has to earn.

I think she is capable of it, and I think she secures it in season seven, but the point remains:

Jon learned that he had no allies willing to sacrifice their lives. So he took the army he had and risked it.

Fortunately, the Vale came at the last moment and saved the day, but I want to point out something here: Sansa may have sent a letter to Littlefinger, but those troops would have never been sent if Littlefinger didn’t play on the love Robin had for Sansa. It was a complicated affection, but I do believe Robin is meant to be understood as caring about her.

Notice too that Littlefinger used a trick on Robin: he made Robin believe he loved him like a son moreso than Royce loved him, and because of that Robin looked to Littlefinger for advice.

Love is very important in this series when it comes to family. No one does anything out of pure loyalty - they do it out of love. Brienne fought for Renly because she loved him. Cersei killed for her children because she loved them. Tyrion helped his family because he loved them, and then betrayed them because he felt unloved. Daenerys amassed an army of slaves she freed because they came to love her.

But why is this important for the Political Jon theory?

Ultimately, Robb failed not because he married Talisa, but because he could not secure the love of those under his command. He made serious mistakes that compromised the affection or trust his people had in him out of honor, and that ultimately led to his downfall.

Ned failed not because he stuck his nose where he shouldn’t, but because he chose the honorable path in doing so. He did not get his ducks in a row, leading to the destruction of his house.

Maester Aemon discusses with Jon in season one that his honor was tested because of the love he had for his family. He told Jon love would one day cause him to test his vows too.

Ned ultimately chose love over honor: instead of dying honorably, he was going to admit guilt to save the daughter he loved. Too late, unfortunately, but that’s the point: Ned should have chosen love to begin with - as he did when he saved Jon from Robert.

In season seven, Jon realizes they need more allies to defeat the White Walkers. However, he has no way to secure these allies. The North already had the Vale, but could not secure the Riverlands or any other kingdom.

However, there comes an opportunity: dragon glass and dragons in Daenerys. That is both weapon and fire - and armies, to fight the dead.

When Jon left Winterfell, he knew he needed to meet personally with Daenerys just like he needed to meet personally with the Northern houses in their petition. It was a risk, but one which had to be made.

But just like before, pleas for honor in the Great War did not sway Daenerys. Daenerys does not know Jon Snow at the beginning of the season, nor does she know the North. Jon becomes trapped, as he likely feared happening with Sansa while fighting Ramsay, and faced the very real threat that he would fail in securing allies.

However, Jon was unlikely to be lucky with a Lyanna or Vale surprise, meaning he had to approach the situation differently. He had to abandon his honor and choose love.

But here’s the thing: I don’t think he loves Daenerys. The point of everything I’m saying so far is that in order to get someone to fight for you, they must love you. They must also believe you love them back.

It doesn’t have to be true.

Tyrion loves his family. He believes his father hates him. He suspects Cersei might hate him. When this is confirmed in his eyes, he no longer is willing to fight for them.

Robin loves Sansa. He is willing to fight for her. He believes that Littlefinger loves him like a father. This is not true. Robin has no idea. He is willing to be misled by Littlefinger because of it.

Jon loves Ygritte. Ygritte loves Jon. Jon chooses honors over Ygritte and love for his Night’s Watch brothers. He regrets that. It breaks him like it broke Ned.

Interestingly, Jon loved the Night’s Watch, but the Night’s Watch believed he oved the Wildlings more. That is why the Night’s Watch betrayed him.

Jon leaves the Night’s Watch because they betrayed him. Jon cannot love his Night’s Watch brothers as he once did.

Jon lets Daenerys believe he likes her so she will be willing to fight for him, because allies need to love the person they are fighting for (romantically or platonically) in order to secure their allegiance.

What Jon lacked in season six, he made sure to secure in season seven through Daenerys.

Political Jon is Political Jon because Jon understands that love is what he needs to save his people, to save Sansa.

It’s always why the other characters in the story will ultimately fail because they misunderstand the power of love and power.

Cersei only loves her children, and was very open about this. That is why she will fail. Sansa even notices this. She’s a slow learner though, which is why she didn’t realize the North did not love her yet.

Margaery knew this point powerfully. She made sure that the common people loved her to secure power. She failed to secure the love of Cersei (not that she would have succeeded) and Cersei, when seeing her as a threat for the love of Tommen, ended her life.

Daenerys has secured the love of the Dothraki and the freed slaves. She has not secure the love of Westeros and may be uncapable of it, given how she has approached conflict in Westeros so far.

But Jon and Sansa?

This has been their entire journey so far. Not just to be practical and honroable leaders, but lovable leaders. Jon learned that he needs to secure the love of his allies in order to secure loyalty. Interestly, he understood this through practice before he understood it as a theory.

Sansa is the complete opposite: she understood the theory right away, but didn’t see it until practice (because she was unexperienced) until she actually had to rule the North in Jon’s absence.

But together I think we have a couple poised to secure the love of their people, and I think it is only natural they would also be King and Queen together too. They are the only characters moving towards this path of love over honor.

#jonsa #jon snow #sansa stark #game of thonres #asoiaf

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