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rebeccahpedersen · 7 years ago

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Top Five: Real Estate Stories Of 2017

TorontoRealtyBlog

I hope you enjoyed Monday’s look back at all the topics of conversation on Toronto Realty Blog through 2017.

Today, I want to look more specifically at the top real estate stories that either graced the front pages of our newspapers, made for daily water-cooler talk, and of course, were much discussed here on the blog as well.

There’s bound to be some overlap with the top-five blogs from Monday, but first, let’s look back at the top-five stories of 2016 just for fun…

What a difference a year can make, right?

In the fast-paced, dynamic world of Toronto real estate, you’d have to think that what made for big headlines in 2016, would be completely different in 2017, no?

From December 19th, 2016, here are the top-five stories of 2016 as per my blog post:

5) New Mortgage Regulations 4) Foreign Ownership 3) The Business Of Real Estate And The Real Estate Industry 2) Kathy Tomlinson & Vancouver Real Estate 1) Prices

And how does this compare to 2017?

Well, I think it’s fair to say that #3 was a very specific story, not to be repeated again.

#4 is still a topic, but not nearly as hot as it was in 2016.

So that leaves us with three topics from 2016, that could all be considered in a top-five list for 2017, and would undoubtedly all be present in, say, a top-10 list.

Do you think all three of those topics should make this year’s list? Let’s find out…

Here are my “Top 5 Real Estate Stories of 2017”

5) International Real Estate

Toronto real estate is always a hot topic, but for those that really love Toronto real estate, they also like discussing what’s going on outside our city. And perhaps comparatively, how Toronto stacks up against other world-class cities across the globe.

In 2016, all the talk was about Vancouver, since there were several scandals in the city early in the year, and much was made of the foreign buyers.

As a result, we Torontonians were only making comparisons to the Vancouver market, both in terms of price, as well as the politics.

In 2017, we broke free of that comparison, and it seemed as though the world took notice too.

The massive run-up in spring prices was in part due to renewed interest in Toronto real estate from buyers around the globe, but as the year went on, we read a lot of articles about how Toronto compares to other cities.

I wrote two blogs in the Fall, both of which had tremendous reader responses:

October 23rd, 2017 – UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index

November 1st, 2017 – Toronto Is The 13th-Least Affordable City In North America

The first blog post was about a UBS “Bubble Index” that ranked Toronto first in the world ahead of Stockholm, Munich, Vancouver, Sydney, London, Hong Kong, and Amsterdam, among others.

I wrote at length about the Index, which I felt was somewhat flawed, especially when you consider that 19 of the 20 cities profiled, were “over-valued.”

I concluded that their report had more to do with cities being “expensive,” and maybe “unaffordable,” rather than being in some sort of bubble.

Nevertheless, there were 99 comments posted by my readers, who just at the topic up!

Not to be outdone, the second blog post, about Toronto being the “13th-least affordable” city in North America, resulted in a whopping 149 comments from my readers, in what was the second-most comments on any blog post in 2017.

This is what I mean about how “international real estate” is a topic people love to discuss.

No, we’re not looking at photos of a Penthouse in Monaco here, but rather we’re discussing the city in which we live, in the context of international real estate. And that’s a lot more productive than flipping through a portfolio of luxury real estate that’s nothing short of fantasy.

Earlier in 2017, I posted this:

January 13th, 2017 – And Just When You Thought Toronto Was Expensive

The blog is about a 150 square foot condo in downtown Sydney, Australia, selling for $350,000.

Yes, you read that right. It’s not a typo. It’s 150 square feet.

See the blog for the floor plan.

Later in the month, I wrote this:

January 25th, 2017 – What Would That Cost……In London?

If you don’t feel like reading, then I’ll give you the Coles Notes: how about $16.4 Million CAD for half of a house in Primrose Hill, London? That’s a typical 50 x 150 that you’d find in Lawrence Park, divided into two units, with one unit selling for $16.4 Million.

And we complain about prices here in Toronto!

Last but not least, and keeping with the London theme, try this on for size:

May 15th, 2017 – How Bad Is Toronto’s Land Transfer Tax?

This was about something called “Stamp Tax,” which is essentially London’s name for “Land Transfer Tax.”

And it’s so punitive, that people don’t really sell their homes – they keep their existing home, and rent a larger one when needed.

A $4.2M house in Toronto costs you a whopping $171,200 in land transfer tax in Toronto, but that’s nothing compared to the $363,750 you’d pay in London. Mind you, the house would cost at least double, so let’s not even think about what you’d pay in tax…

All in all, we spent a lot of time this year discussing what’s going on in other markets, and of course, how our own market here in Toronto compares along a multitude of criteria.

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4) The Rental Market

This was a big topic on Monday’s blog, so I won’t repeat myself too much here.

Bottom line: a series of CBC articles about people being “unofficially evicted” by their landlords, who were legally increasing their rents by huge sums, made the rounds on social media, and drew more attention than any story about “rentals” ever has before.

Rentals aren’t a sexy topic. Everybody wants to know what’s selling, who’s buying, and talk about big, big numbers – certainly not $1,950 per month.

But those CBC articles got people talking, and it gave me the impetus for this blog:

March 1st, 2017 – Should The Government Regulate Rental Increases?

As mentioned on Monday, this spawned 137 comments, and an absurd amount of debate.

Overall, the consensus among my readers seemed to be that rent controls weren’t a good idea.

But as we all know, they came into effect shortly thereafter.

The fallout from the development community was predictable, with developers who would have built rental properties, turning them into condos.

September 7th, 2017, I wrote, What’s The Future Of Purpose-Built Rentals In Toronto?

We also discussed short-term rentals and AirBnB’s, well before the city brought their new regulations into effect. I’d like to think we were ahead of the curve on that one!

August 14th, 2017 – What Is The Future Of Short-Term Rentals In Toronto?

August 16th, 2017 – Here’s How New Orleans Is Dealing With Short-Term Rentals

When the new rental guidelines came into effect, there seemed to be a lot of confusion about when a landlord needs to provide compensation to a tenant.

October 13th, 2017, I wrote, When Does A Landlord Need To Provide Compensation During An Eviction?

The irony is, I spoke to a lawyer recently who read my blog, looked at the documents provided by the Provincial government (they’re highlighted in the blog above), and told me, “How those documents read is not the way the government intended.”

So his point is that although the documents specifically state that a landlord does not need to provide compensation in specific cases (see the blog for details), that’s not how the government drew it up, in their minds.

Great.

I can’t imagine we’ll see any fallout from that…

By mid-fall, I had lost the appetite to discuss rentals, since it was just so depressing from every side of the equation.

But I took one final stab at things with this blog:

October 16th, 2017 – How Do We Solve Toronto’s Rental Crisis?

Call me a cynic, but I’d like to go back to some points I made on Monday’s blog.

The way to “solve” the crisis?

Tough love.

If you can’t afford to rent in Toronto, then don’t rent in Toronto.

You can rent in Ajax, and take the Go Train into Union Station every day.

Oh, you don’t want to spend 35 minutes on the train?

Well, that’s a whole other story, and a whole other set of problems with society today, and the bail-out, free-wheeling socialist government that encourages people to demand more of everybody but themselves…

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3) Business Of Real Estate

I suppose this will always be one of the top stories, because you can’t really have a thriving real estate market, without a booming real estate industry.

We started 2017 with former Conservative Premier hopeful, Tim Hudak, coming on board as the CEO of OREA.

Almost immediately, OREA was “stripped” of its education duties, as the licensing body for new agents, and Humber College was announced as the new home to education, starting in 2019.

Some in our industry figured OREA would now serve virtually no purpose, but Tim Hudak changed that perception when he came on board, and started to get into the real estate trenches with agents, and learn what’s really going on in the industry.

I met with Tim Hudak in early 2017, as he sought out some of the top agents to find out what the biggest issues in real estate were.

The theme was consistent right across the board: there are a lot of bad apples in the business.

Mr. Hudak then came out and did something that I, along with most other onlookers, never expected him to do: he told people this.

Mr. Hudak announced that OREA believed there should be stiffer penalties and fines for agents that break the rules. He took the words right out of my mouth when he said that for many agents, the fines are simply “the cost of doing business.” You’re welcome for that one, Tim.

Over the next few months, Mr. Hudak sought to turn OREA into more of a lobbyist, and in effect, a watchdog over a portion of the industry, that many of us feel does not represent us.

Check out a few of the articles to this effect:

June 11th, 2017 – Corrupt Realtors Should Face Higher Fines

August 1st, 2017 – Ontario Real Estate Association Pledges To Watch The Watchdog

September 20th, 2017 – Toughen Realtor License Renewal Testing, Says OREA

I for one, think Mr. Hudak is doing a fantastic job.

But how does this affect you, the public? Perhaps it doesn’t, directly.

More intriguing to the public was the ongoing litigation between TREB and the Competition Bureau, which TREB promptly lost in December.

We didn’t get a lot of time to cover this on Toronto Realty Blog, since it happened right at the end of the year, but I think this will be a big topic in 2018, as TREB appeals to the Supreme Court of Canada, even though I would suggest that more than half the member base does not want them to spend our money fighting for something that many of us don’t believe in.

Those are both “big picture” issues as far as the real estate industry goes.

But what about the smaller issues, that affect buyers and sellers every day?

As you know, 2017 started with a bang, and the market was in a complete frenzy.

When the market is hot, it often moves very fast. And when the market moves fast, people always try to pull the proverbial “fast-one.”

One of the issues that plagued the industry early on was this bizarre listing tactic that agents were using, which was completely illegal.

January 23rd, 2017, I wrote, What Can You Get Away With In This Market?

As I noted, agents were starting to put this B.S. in the bottom of listings:

It was so blatantly against the rules that it was laughable, and yet the irony is, once agents started to see it, rather than say, “Hey, you can’t do that!” other agents actually started to follow suit!

The market was on fire, and was borderline unpredictable.

Any property listed with an “offer date” was being bombarded with bully offers, and many listing agents either had no idea how to handle bully offers, or didn’t care.

February 23rd, 2017, I wrote, RECO Bulletin: Written Direction For Offers

RECO had been getting so many complaints about how listing agents were dealing with offers, that they had to send out a notice to their entire membership.

Did anything change?

No.

It was the Wild West, and as a buyer agent, you literally had to live and breathe real estate, 24/7, take nothing at face value, and work harder than you’d ever worked before, just to do the same job you had always done.

When the market cooled down in May, June, and into the summer, we had another epademic: sellers listing for a price they had no intenion of accepting, without any indicaton of that fact, and without an “offer date” scheduled.

May 29th, 2017, I wrote, What Is False Advertising, Anyways?

Sellers thought it was okay to list at $999,000, with no offer date, and reject any offer that came in – until they got the $1.3M they were looking for.

What did RECO think about this?

That question is rhetorical. RECO was too busy following up on complaints from January.

We also eventually dealt with “escalation clauses,” which added more fuel to the fire.

June 2nd, 2017, I wrote, What The Heck Is An “Escalation Clause?”

“Escape clauses” made a brief comeback in the slow summer months as well.

And by the time the fall rolled around, things actually seemed normal by comparison.

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2) Government Intervention

This could easily be the #1 story of the year, but as you’ll read in a moment, there’s another story that just couldn’t be knocked off the top perch.

During my time in this industry, I’ve grown to understand that the government must play a role, as they must with just about any industry.

The larger the scale, the bigger the stakes, the more that can go wrong in a truly “free market,” and I say this as a capitalist, and a proponent of free markets. But in lieu of self-governance, which human beings are not capable of, and in lieu of a God, to oversee every minutiae of human action in this world, the government will always play a role as a fail-safe, guardian, onlooker, supervisor, input-giver, and/or problem-fixer.

How much of a role they play, is the question in any industry…

In my 2016 year-end blog post, my #5 story was “New Mortgage Regulations,” which specifically referred to two major changes:

1) The increase in down payment requirement from 5% to 10%, for the purchase amounts from $500,000 to $999,000.

2) A mortgage “stress test” for insured mortgages.

Who knew that these two major changes, would pale in comparison to what was in store for 2017.

The start to the 2017 real estate calendar was like jumping naked into an ice-cold lake. It woke you right up. It left no doubt where you were, and what was going on. And the shock to the system was so drastic, that it almost didn’t seem real.

As a result, we started to hear more and more about “the government stepping in,” which is something we’ve heard over and over, since 2008, when the United States had their real estate crisis.

I’ve written many times in the past about all of the changes the CMHC brought into effect since 2008, so I won’t go over it again.

But this time, it seemed that we weren’t only talking about CMHC policy, but rather anything and everything was on the table, and all tools were at the governments’ disposal.

Let me trace back all the government intervention in the market, with a series of blog posts I wrote in 2017:

February 10th, 2017 – Toronto Has Over 99,000 Unoccupied Homes

This blog wasn’t specifically about the government intervening, but the headlines were eye-catching.

Vancouver’s big (perceived?) problem in 2016 was the big, evil, nameless, faceless, “foreign buyer,” and that led to Vancouver instituting not only a foreign buyer’s tax, but also a vacancy tax.

The unoccupied homes story in February, coupled with the red-hot market, simply started to fan the flames of the already burning fire.

March 1st, 2017 – Should The Government Regulate Rental Increases?

I think we covered this pretty well above, no?

March 20th, 2017 – The Ontario Foreign Buyer’s Tax Is Coming

This was a classic “David Fleming Political Rant,” but I just re-read it, and I wouldn’t change a thing.

The foreign buyer’s tax was, and will only ever be, a political move. Shortly after Kathleen Wynne introduced her “hydro cut,” which is really just a short-term measure that will cost tax-payers billions more down the line, she started to make noise about a Foreign Buyer’s Tax that we all knew would become a reality.

April 3rd, 2017 – Province Stripping TARION Of Builder-Regulator Role

This was something I personally applauded, but important to note nonetheless in the context of government regulation in the real estate market.

April 10th, 2017 – Government Apparently Set To “End Bidding Wars”

This bothered me more than anything else the government talked about, since they have no idea how to define a “bidding war,” nor did they understand how offer processes work, nor did they grasp the forces of supply and demand. You can’t “end bidding wars” without stopping people from buying and selling houses.

This was, once again, a political play.

April 24th, 2017 – The Liberal Government’s “16-Point-Plan” Comes Up 14 1/2 Points Shy

I think we covered this on Monday, but again, bears mentioning as this is the biggest impact the government had in 2017.

April 26th, 2017 – Are We About To See The End Of Double-Ending?

When all else fails, blame real estate agents for the hot market.

July 28th, 2017 – Changes To The Condo Act = More Government Lip Service

This had nothing to do with the out-of-date Condominium Act of 1998, and more to do with creating another wing of government to raise revenue.

September 22nd, 2017 –Introducing The “Condominium Authority Of Ontario”

And here is the aforementioned new wing of government, which will have no impact, serve no purpose, but raise much-needed tax revenue for a spendthrift government.

November, 8th, 2017 – Should Toronto Be Building More 3-Bedroom Condos For “Families?”

Oh cry me a river!

Now the government is spending money commissioning reports telling us what we already know: Toronto real estate is expensive. And then also telling us: it’s tough for families to afford houses.

Can we talk about “entitlement” again?

Those are all the blog posts I wrote about the government’s role in the market this year, and we still didn’t touch on the AirBnB regulations, which came into effect quite recently.

Every year, the government meddles in the market. You take it as given.

But I’ve never seen anything close to what happened in 2017.

Not even close…

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1) The Spring Insanity

Honestly, it’s a really close call between #1 and #2.

I think the spring insanity makes for a juicier story, but ultimately I think the government intervention in the market will have a more lasting effect, and will be scrutinized and discussed for years to come.

Having said that, what happened in the spring of 2017 was something that I’ve never seen before in my 14 years in this business, and something that, from what I’ve been told by agents with more than double my experience, hasn’t really happened before.

What happened? How did it happen? Why did it happen?

It’s complicated…

As I wrote during the 2016 “Top Five” blog post, the price appreciation from 2015 to 2016 was substantial.

Here’s a look at the average Toronto home price over the last decade, with the yearly appreciation:

As you can see, we finished an insane 2016 with a whopping 17.3% increase in average home price over 2015.

The media, as is always the custom, was predicting a tepid 2017, and once again, predicting the demise of the Toronto market.

But a lot of us had this “feeling” that things were going to start fast, and unlike in past years where January and February are simply gateway months to the busier March, April, May, and June prime market, in 2017, January started with a boom.

The problem, as I noted in blogs throughout the spring, and as recent as the start of December, was inventory.

But along with a decrease in supply, there was also a huge increase in demand! Every “holdover buyer,” ie. those that were active in the fall of 2016, but didn’t buy, came out swinging in January. And the buyers that usually “start” their searches in the New Year, by moving slowly and feeling out the market, also came out full-steam-ahead.

Couple a decrease in supply with an increase in demand, and you know what happens.

Here’s how the active listings looked, year-over-year to start 2017:

More buyers, fewer listings. It was the perfect storm.

You’ve heard this line before, as I mentioned this many times in the spring, but I remember walking into the office every morning and as though I was a kid, looking both ways before crossing the street, I’d calmly ask my colleagues, “Sooo…….do you guys feel something…….odd is going on out there?”

There’s no other way to explain it. There was just this “feeling.”

You’d see the sales numbers come in overnight, you’d hear about the properties that sold via bully offers, and you’d witness it all yourself each and every night while showing properties, with line-ups to get in the door.

And as January turned to February, we knew that it wasn’t just a “feeling” about the market, but rather the market had completely changed.

February 1st, 2017, I wrote a blog called, It’s Official: Every Property Has An Offer Date

It’s not exactly what you think.

Not every property had an offer date, but as the blog reads, “The offer date for every property, is now.”

Properties that actually did have set offer dates, weren’t making it until the scheduled night. Bully offers were taking more than half of all listings for freehold properties, and any condo that came onto the market without an offer date, was selling within mere hours.

So the “offer date” for every property was essentially the moment that property hit MLS.

Bully offers were running rampant, and I actually felt bad for the sellers, who had no clue what to do.

March 13th, 2017, I wrote, Bully Offers: How Do You Know When To Accept One?

Then on the other hand, there were buyer agents who had no clue how to transact in this market.

I recall having listings where agents would say, “I’m bringing you a bully offer,” and I’d get all excited to see some crazy number. But then they’d come in around, or even at the listing price, having absolutely no clue what a “bully offer” actually is.

When it came to condos, there were multiple offers on everything.

One of my colleagues told me he was offering on a condo at 600 Fleet Street – a so-so building that’s never really been “in demand.” I asked him what price he was going in at, and he said, “I’m not sure yet; there’s five offers registered so far, but it’s still early, and I think we might see double-digits.”

It was unreal.

And in order to be competitive and “win” in multiple offers, you had to come in unconditional as you would with a freehold. This meant you had to review the Status Certificate before you submitted your offer.

March 15th, 2017, I wrote, New Trend For 2017: No More Status Certificate Conditions

I usually had the buyer’s lawyer review the documents, or at least sit down with the buyer and go over everything ourselves. But some buyers were just throwing caution to the wind altogether.

My condo listings were going crazy.

I had double-digit offers on just about every listing, and a couple of listings saw 20+ offers.

The average Toronto home price increased 12.0%, from January to February – $770,745, to $875,983.

And it didn’t end there.

The average Toronto home price increased in March, and again in April, before the Liberal government stepped in with their “16-Point Plan,” and although the plan itself had no legs, the mere presence of the government, suggesting they were here to “cool the market,” had an incredible effect.

May 25th, 2017, I wrote, April, 2017: Transition Month, Or A “Blip” On The Radar?

In the blog, I wrote that the month of April gave us five major reasons, all in the same 2-week period, for the market to cool:

1) The Ontario Fair Housing Plan 2) Home Trust scandal 3) Articles about Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) 4) Easter & Passover falling on the same date 5) Buyer fatigue

The rest, as we know, is history.

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Okay, I’m sorry, folks!

4,000+ words. I just got carried away.

If you made it to the end, then you’re a better person than I, since my proof-reading efforts failed about half-way through…

But you know what? If ever there was a blog that deserved roughly 220% of the average blog length, it would be a year-end post like this one.

It’s not easy to sum up the five biggest stories in an entire year of real estate, especially after a year like the one we just had.

Thanks for reading, and as always, feel free to let me know if there were topics that you think should have made the list!

The post Top Five: Real Estate Stories Of 2017 appeared first on Toronto Real Estate Property Sales & Investments | Toronto Realty Blog by David Fleming.

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dandelliongirl · 8 years ago

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November

is here already!

Time has flown by a lot faster than I expected it to. It has probably been because I’ve kept so busy. Also overall I’ve been feeling better by the day.

The last weekend of October was a grandmum weekend. As a bit of a surprise both my grandmums came over to get new phones. They both had the same lumia phone before and now they have Honor 8 lites like me so that I can provide tech support. (For clarification again, I call my mum’s mum grandmum, and my dad’s mum by her first name because we aren’t that close. So when I talk about granmum it’s my mum’s mum.)

So I spent Saturday and Sunday recording more poetry with grandmum and she stayed the night at my place. It was supposed to be my laundry weekend but spending time with granny was much more special. We did some re-recordings for our poetry project together and went over stuff on her new phone. On Sunday we went to have dinner with mum and dad before granny drove back home and I went to teach my classes. I truly enjoyed work, we started rehearsing Christmas shows with both groups and everybody had a fun time. I wish work could be that much fun every time. Unfortunately I missed most of Mischacrossing’s ACNL Halloween stream because of daylight savings, which was upsetting.

On Monday I worked on finishing up the main body of text in my thesis. It really blows my mind how I could just submit my MA thesis for pre-grading now if I had no standards. Like it’s all written out now, all 95 pages of it. I can’t believe I did it. Now all that’s left is adding some more sources and researching more context for some of the people that I write about. Anything that I manage to add now is going to be extra, and it’ll lessen my workload for next spring after the pre-grading feedback comes in. I’m pretty sure my thesis would already pass though, so if the worst comes to pass and for some reason I can’t do anything to it anymore at least I can submit it for some kind of a grade already. Still, I aim to make it a good one so that in case I ever feel like going back to school for a PHD I have that door open for me. It has been a year since I started the process but somehow it feels like I’ve completed it without noticing. It’s a weird and surreal feeling, and also a bit scary because that means graduation and being on my own again.. Anyway for the rest of Monday I went to a meeting regarding the future of the Children’s university, and to the office to do work after that. In the evening I did JLPT stuff.

On Tuesday me and my friend had our fun little ACNL Halloween sleepover. I had until 5pm to work on my thesis and JLPT stuff before we met up at the grocery store to get frozen pizzas and chocolate. At 6pm we started working through the Halloween event. After collecting all the stuff and getting all the tricks and treats we watched Rocky Horror Picture Show and Mamma Mia together. Then we went to bed. Such a special Halloween.♥

On Wednesday I studied JLPT with a friend, read a book for my thesis and did some more JLPT stuff. In the evening another friend came over to sew on the laces for her new pointe shoes. I managed to find a way to get DMC4 to work on my PC, which made me happier than a lot of things have lately. The CD version apparently has some old DX files on it so installing from the CD doesn’t work anymore. However some kind soul on the Steam community had found out that if you install the demo version of the game which has the updated files first, and then copy-paste everything aside from the directX folder from the CD and install the full version it would force the game to install using the new updated files. And it worked like a charm! I played through the first couple of missions and for the rest of the night we watched The Sims 4 videos together. My friend also played through a bit of Persona 5 before we went to bed.

On Thursday morning I read my last physical actual thesis book that isn’t an e-book, and took care of some work business before my friend woke up. We spent the day playing some more DMC4, and I tried to get back to DMC5 for the first time since highschool probably. It was a lot of fun since I left it at a boss fight and had no idea what the controls were anymore, but we figured it out and it was a good laugh. I love the DMC games and I’ve missed them. In the evening my apartment complex had a meeting where we decided to continue the process of building a new house on our backyard. Out of 11k votes we had 7k present and out of those 6k voted for the continuation of the project - so yay for that! There were arguments for nature and the preservation of our backyard but honestly the monetary benefit from selling the right to build on our backyard is going to be so great it can’t be ignored. Also, we get a much nicer backyard with actual greenery and plants and recreational stuff in the new plan so... Yes, we lose a few pine trees and an area for drug abusers to hang out and dogs to poop on but in return we get a nice and maintained backyard in stead of a concrete parking lot. Anyway after the meeting I came home to watch some JLPT videos and chill out on the sofa.

On Friday I had another JLPT study date, after which I did some planning for next week and worked on my JLPT vocabulary. Then I had ballet from 4 to 6pm. Luckily I had mum’s car because she had to go to a two day training so I got to drive to ballet and back. After showering and eating I helped my friend out with Gracie’s fashion check in ACNL and spent about 5 hours in total watching Sims 4 videos again. I guess it was really needed. I’ve also been watching a lot of Miraculous Ladybug lately now that season 2 started airing. I’ve watched the entire first season and the first 3 episodes of season 2. Again, harmless cute fun that keeps my mind off other stuff.

Yesterday was a cleanup day. I did two loads of laundry an finally got the rest of my guy’s remaining clothes and his duvet+pillows washed. Also I emptied out all of my laundry basket, which felt damn good. Finally. The damn thing was bursting at the seams. I also dusted, vacuumed, washed the bathroom and went to the store to restock on carrots for the bunny and something to cook with for next week. Then I put up a moderate amount of Christmas decor as I swapped out my Halloween stuff. I also put up my Christmas lights. The tree isn’t going up until the end of November but at least I have something set up now. I picked mum up from the train station at 4:40pm and folded some laundry before going to our music video choreo rehearsal at 6pm. I got out at 8:30pm -ish, and came back to shower, eat, watch Grease 2 and iron out some clothes and towels etc.

This Sunday morning has been great. I love sleeping in and making some special breakfast that I can eat in front of the TV. Today I made banana and blueberry pancakes. Now I’m over here blogging and thinking about what to do with the rest of my day before I have to go to work. I really want to play DAI or MEA but until my payday on the 15th I can’t afford to order the new PSU, so in reality I won’t be playing those games until the end of November depending on how long it takes for me to get the thing and swap it. I’m just praying to everything that it works... It would be so much fun to spend Christmas break stress free and with video games.. For now I might just play some Stardew Valley for a few hours, then eat and go to work.. Hopefully I can get to today’s Mischastream with more success than last week.

I’ve got 6 weeks until Christmas break and 4 weeks until the JLPT exam... Yikes.

#personal #diary #November2017

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junker-town · 8 years ago

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2017 TCU football has experience, upside, and far less benefit of the doubt

After two straight weird years, the Frogs could be a couple breaks away from a huge season.

In last year’s TCU preview, I proclaimed that my numbers were being too pessimistic, that after an unlucky 2015, Gary Patterson’s Horned Frogs were a top-15 squad and dark horse Big 12 contender. I was convinced of this despite the loss of star quarterback Trevone Boykin, receiver Josh Doctson, and three all-conference linemen.

In 2015, they dealt with more injuries than almost anybody. Turnovers luck swung eight points in the other direction, to minus-1.8 points per game.

Their high points were ridiculously high (a 50-7 win over Texas, 40-10 over West Virginia), and even at the end of the regular season, when attrition was taking a toll, they came within a two-point conversion of beating CFP semifinalist Oklahoma in Norman, then outlasted Baylor in a monsoon.

And then they unleashed a 31-point comeback against Oregon. All the bad luck and freshmen in the world, and they finished 11-2 and 26th in S&P+. And now all of those freshmen and sophomores are sophomores and juniors.

I considered going hard against the numbers and ranking TCU ahead of Oklahoma in the Big 12 power rankings. I expected big things from this team, and even early home losses to Arkansas (by three) and Oklahoma (by six) couldn’t completely dissuade me.

Turns out we were both wrong. TCU wasn’t a top-30ish team, as S&P+ thought it was, and definitely wasn’t a top-15 team. After a 4-2 start, the Horned Frogs turned scattershot, destroying Baylor and Texas by a combined 62 but losing to West Virginia, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State by a combined 73 and damn near losing to Kansas.

They lost five of their final seven, barely qualified for a bowl, then lost said bowl to another disappointing team, Georgia. Final record: 6-7. S&P+ ranking: 47th.

So where did we go wrong? What happened that wasn’t supposed to happen? Will it happen again?

Kenny Hill remained maddening. The Texas A&M transfer began 2014 in Heisman form before growing mistake-prone and losing his job. He finished that season with a 2.5 percent interception rate and a 4.2 percent sack rate. In 2016: 3 percent interception rate, 6 percent sack rate. He had a 149.1 passer rating after five games, then produced a 108.6 over the next eight.

The receiving corps couldn’t keep guys on the field. You know what doesn’t help your passer rating? A revolving door at receiver. Inside receiver Shaun Nixon missed the entire season, KaVontae Turpin had 14 catches for 188 yards in the first two games, then missed half the year and produced almost nothing. Junior Emanuel Porter was in and out. Ten different players ended up targeted at least 20 times. That’s a little too much balance.

The defense barely improved. After it plummeted from 15th to 59th in Def. S&P+ in 2015 because of youth, injury, and assistant coaching change, I expected a bounce back. But the Frogs only improved to 51st. The pass defense was as efficient as ever, and the pass rush was strong, but the breakdowns were enormous (35 plays of 30-plus yards allowed, 104th in FBS) and the passing-downs defense was strangely soft.

Hill’s presence in the run game was important; TCU improved to 40th in Rushing S&P+ as it regressed to 83rd in Passing S&P+. And the offense returns virtually everybody: Hill, running back Kyle Hicks, all 10 primary receivers (plus Nixon), and all but one member of the line two-deep. The back seven of the defense is loaded with juniors and seniors, and thanks to another run of injuries, it boasts more experience than it’s had in three years.

Don’t worry; I’m not going to talk myself into TCU being a top-15 team again, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. The level of experience is enticing. And the Frogs are positioned for success in the Big 12’s second tier; while Oklahoma is projected fifth in S&P+, far ahead of the rest of the field, TCU is one of five projected between 16th and 35th.

Still, there are obvious reasons for tapping the brakes. Hill is a September Heisman guy who has yet to play well in November. The defense hasn’t looked like a TCU defense since coordinator Dick Bumpas retired after 2014. The offense now has to get along without co-coordinator Doug Meacham, who took over sole coordinator duties at Kansas.

The Frogs are only two seasons removed from nearly making the College Football Playoff. Patterson still gets the benefit of the doubt. But until all the pieces come together again — as they did for three straight S&P+ top-10 teams from 2008-10 and another in 2014 — we don’t know that they will again.

I guess that makes this a big year in Fort Worth, huh?

2016 in review

2016 TCU statistical profile.

There was context — the receiving corps struggling to keep guys on the field, the defense not coming around — but Hill’s first year as TCU starter looked like his first year as A&M starter: hot start, then fade.

Granted, the start wasn’t quite as hot as I anticipated.

First 5 games (3-2): Avg. percentile performance: 75% (~top 30) | Avg. yards per play: TCU 7.0, Opp 5.6 (plus-1.4) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+: minus-0.3 PPG

Last 8 games (3-5): Avg. percentile performance: 50% (~top 65) | Avg. yards per play: TCU 5.4, Opp 5.4 (plus-0) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+: minus-7.9 PPG

The defense was volatile all year, producing a percentile performance in the 80s or higher five times and in the 20s or lower three times. But while the offense had its moments in the latter half (mainly in a 62-22 win over Baylor), the drop-off was clear. Aside from the trip to Waco, TCU averaged just 17.7 points per game after October 1.

The passing game was the primary reason, though the lack of aerial success rubbed off on the run game. Hicks was averaging 5.6 yards per carry five games in but just 4.9 the rest of the way.

TCU is second in the country in returning production this fall. That almost guarantees improvement. But the Frogs need quite a bit of improvement to move back toward the top of the conference.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

With Meacham’s departure, Patterson did some shuffling. He moved line coach Jarrett Anderson to inside receivers coach and brought in Arizona State assistant Chris Thomsen to coach the line. He moved running backs coach Curtis Luper to co-coordinator. He brought in fired former Cal head coach Sonny Dykes for a rehab stint as an analyst.

This is more “rearranging cubicles” than any sort of massive overhaul. Patterson proved by bringing in Cumbie and Meacham a few years ago that he will make big changes when he feels it’s necessary, but these moves bely a belief that TCU is close.

We caught glimpses last year. The Frogs averaged 7 yards per play and scored 46 points against Oklahoma, then averaged 7.6 and scored 62 against Baylor. The first five games were really impressive, and the Texas game wasn’t bad. But when things didn’t work, things didn’t work.

TCU’s offense in 6 wins: 41.7 points per game, 7.0 yards per play, 70% average percentile performance

TCU’s offense in 7 losses: 21.9 points per game, 5.3 yards per play, 35% average percentile performance

Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Kenny Hill

The run game did improve, but that only matters so much when you pass as much as TCU did; the Frogs ran just 50 percent of the time on standard downs (113th in FBS) and 30 percent on passing downs (92nd). That won’t change much in 2017, so TCU’s improvement relies on the passing game’s improvement.

It’s like everything fell apart at once for the receiving corps.

Taj Williams: 24 catches for 488 yards in first 5 games, 15 for 214 in last 8

John Diarse: 17 catches for 300 yards in first 5 games, 16 for 142 in last 8

Kyle Hicks: 26 catches for 302 yards in first 5 games, 21 for 115 in last 8

KaVontae Turpin: 16 catches for 196 yards in first 5 games, 14 for 99 in last 8

Hill made a lot of mistakes, and defenses adapted. But to say the least, the receiving corps didn’t help.

QBs w/ the most dropped passes in 2016 38 Kenny Hill TCU 36 Troy Williams Utah 34 Matt Linehan ID 34 Riley Ferguson MEM 33 Lamar Jackson UL http://pic.twitter.com/UDO3iJwlWC

— PFF College Football (@PFF_College) February 7, 2017

Patterson was worried about drops last spring. Williams managed only a 52 percent catch rate, and though Turpin (73 percent catch rate) was more reliable, he couldn’t stay on the field. If Turpin and Shaun Nixon (68 percent in 2015) are healthy, that would help immensely. So would a sustained emergence from upperclassmen like Jaelan Austin and Emanuel Porter.

And if the upperclassmen can’t hold onto the ball, Cumbie and Luper can turn to youngsters; sophomore Isaiah Graham and freshmen Jalen Reagor and Omar Manning are former four-star recruits, and options like sophomores Dylan Thomas and TreVontae Hights were pretty regarded, too.

One thing is sure: this should be the strongest line in a while. Four senior starters return, including all-conference center Austin Schlottman. If Hill trusts his receivers enough to get the ball out of his hands quickly, both the blocking and protection stats should be strong.

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Taj Williams

Defense

From 2005-14, TCU ranked in the Def. S&P+ top 15 seven times, peaking at second in 2008 and never falling outside of the top 40. Patterson has been a big reason for this; the former coordinator at Cal Lutheran, Sonoma State, New Mexico, and TCU mastered the nickel defense in a way everybody else wished they could.

You do have to wonder about the role Bumpas played, though. TCU has dealt with a lot of youth, injury, and attrition over the last couple of years, so you could assume regression was a given. But the Frogs fell to 59th in 2015 and 51st in 2016, quite a bit worse than any point in Bumpas’ tenure.

Where did the Frogs struggle the most last year?

102nd in IsoPPP (which measures the magnitude of successful plays), 112th in Passing IsoPPP, 92nd in Rushing IsoPPP. Far too many big plays.

108th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line). The pass rush was strong, but there was no disruption against opposing ground games.

102nd in power success rate. No push in short yardage.

127th in passing downs line yards per carry. TCU’s pass rush was excellent, but it was a bit reckless, opening the door for big gains on scrambles and draw plays.

That TCU could rush the passer so effectively without blitzing should have been a huge benefit. Four different linemen recorded at least 4.5 sacks, and non-linemen combined for just 8.5. It shouldn’t have resulted in massive over-pursuit and run vulnerability, but it did. And now two of the three best pass rushers (Aaron Curry and Josh Carraway, who combined for 13.5 sacks) are gone.

Newcomers will determine whether the line can both provide more stability and stand up to the run. ULM transfer Ben Banogu had 14.5 tackles for loss and five sacks for the Warhawks in 2015, providing aggressiveness against both run and pass.

Four-star redshirt freshman Ross Blacklock and 315-pound Ezra Tu’ua could add quite a bit of oomph at tackle. Throw in four-star redshirt freshman end Isaiah Chambers, four-star sophomore end Brandon Brown, touted freshman tackle Corey Bethley, and returning tackles Chris Bradley and Joseph Broadnax Jr., and it certainly seems like there are options and upside here. But losing Curry and Carraway hurts.

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Ben Banogu (49)

If there’s not a drop-off up front, though, there definitely shouldn’t be one anywhere else. Every primary linebacker returns, including leading tackler Travin Howard, and all but one safety is back. Granted, the one loss is a big one — strong safety Denzel Johnson had 11 tackles for loss and six breakups last year — but the experience is impressive.

And at this exact moment, the cornerback position is more stable. Juniors Julius Lewis and Tony James combined to miss 13 games last year, prompting coaches to have receiver Deante Gray play both ways for a while. (He had 8.5 tackles and a breakup.) Freshman Jeff Gladney had to play a larger role than expected. Funny how that will screw up your big-play numbers.

Ranthony Texada remains one of the better corners in the Big 12, and if Lewis, James, or Gladney is ready and able to play a solid No. 2, then the pass numbers should stabilize. But TCU suddenly bears the burden of proof on defense.

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Niko Small (2) and Ranthony Texada

Special Teams

Special teams abandoned the Horned Frogs. After ranking in the Special Teams S&P+ top 10 in both 2014 and 2015, they fell to 71st. Gray and Turpin were still efficient in the kick return game, but TCU was mediocre elsewhere.

This tends to happen when you hand your unit over to freshmen. Punter Adam Nunez, kickoffs guy Cole Bunce, and place-kicker Ryan Graf were first-year contributors. None was awful, and their development should result in unit improvement. So would Turpin’s good health. He returned four punts for 115 yards and a touchdown in the first two games but had just six for 10 yards the rest of the way.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep Jackson State NR 58.7 100% 9-Sep at Arkansas 32 1.8 54% 16-Sep SMU 81 20.3 88% 23-Sep at Oklahoma State 22 -2.3 45% 7-Oct West Virginia 69 14.8 80% 14-Oct at Kansas State 35 2.9 57% 21-Oct Kansas 107 26.6 94% 28-Oct at Iowa State 57 7.0 66% 4-Nov Texas 16 0.6 51% 11-Nov at Oklahoma 5 -12.4 24% 18-Nov at Texas Tech 66 8.2 68% 25-Nov Baylor 28 6.3 64%

Projected S&P+ Rk 21 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 23 / 33 Projected wins 7.9 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 10.1 (24) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 27 / 35 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -4 / -0.5 2016 TO Luck/Game -1.3 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 85% (92%, 77%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 7.4 (-1.4)

TCU’s going to be pretty good. The Horned Frogs boast a level of returning production that almost assures improvement, and, well, Patterson has a track record. S&P+ projects them 21st and declares them the favorite in 10 of 12 games (and only a two-point underdog in an 11th game).

This is a big year, though, when it comes to proof of upside. Injuries and youth played obvious roles, but the Frogs’ S&P+ ratings (presented in terms of adjusted points per game) fell by 6.6 points in 2015, then another eight points last year. They failed to live up to projections either year, and while a 6-1 record in one-possession games kept them propped up two years ago, they went 1-4 in such games in 2016.

Patterson didn’t make any bold moves this offseason, and he has tools at his disposal. But this level of experience means two things: a big year is possible, but a lot of key contributors are graduating soon. Another retooling is on the horizon, and an only decent 2017 would be a missed opportunity.

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