#esp for presidential elections

[odysseys-blood]

its so stupid to me when someone goes up to somebody (recently in the inboxes of palestinians doing their damndest to share information about whats going on with the genocide of their own people and some of yall still cant take being spoon fed this as if its the worst thing to happen to you to just pay attention (but it happens also after any catastrophe yall just rock up to anyone you judge an affected minority be it someone of another race, culture, gender, sexuality w/e)) and you ask "well who should i vote for"

thats your choice

when you turned 18 in the us of a you gained the right to choose whoever the hell you want on the ballot for president. nobody can make you vote for somebody or withold it. you make that decision. you should be able to think for yourself. do some research and stop talking out of your ass because that is literally the least you could do.

and also you shouldn't be going to someone (especially someone who this is of he least concern of) and go "well what do you think i think i have to vote for x because *despite every atrocity they've ever comitted* theyre still better than the other guy!" because what do you want? forgiveness? you made a choice. you also just told somebody that this choice WILL AFFECT that it was the only choice available to you (even though it wasnt). and then act like they should be grateful. like you're doing them a favor.

[reasonsforhope]

It was a really, really good political news day today in the US (4/4/23)

For anyone who hasn't heard, not only did Trump get arrested, but also:

-We found out that the legal case against him in this prosecution (stormy daniels hush money case) is SIGNIFICANTLY stronger than people had speculated. Like, wow do they have receipts.

-In fact, the evidence was so entirely there that the new question on prime time news (well, at least on msnbc lol) is "Hey, why didn't the federal courts prosecute him for this already???)

-Trump FAILED UTTERLY in his attempts to rally mass protests and demands for "death and destruction" if he was arrested. There was no violence at the arrest at all, and as for Trump supporters? They failed to show up in any kind of numbers--reportedly only about a hundred people were protesting the arrest

-We (aka Judge Janet Protasiewicz) WON what is widely considered to be the most consequential election of 2023, a Wisconsin state supreme court election that handed control of the state supreme court to the left

-Because of that election win, it is now extremely likely that abortion will be legal in Wisconsin, and that Wisconsin won't be able to throw out electors in the 2024 presidential election

-ALSO bc of this, Wisconsin, the most gerrymandered state in the country, will probably get nonpartisan, accurate maps, which COULD FLIP THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES in 2024

-In Chicago, Brandon Johnson, union organizer and former teacher, won the election for mayor, in a decisive win progressives, esp for meaningful criminal justice reform and investment in mental health (whereas the other guy was campaigning on hiring hundreds of new cops and being super tough on crime)

[songmingisthighs]

Hello! I'm really curious about what are your thoughts about the hongjoong Starbucks situation, if you're informed at the moment

i am.

tw : controversial opinion. don't read if you're a butthurt snowflake

i firmly believe ateez and kq did nothing wrong and they don't own anyone any explanation or statement. twtiny need to shut the fuck up because i hate what the majority are saying bc it kinda seem like they're using the situation in palestine to cancel people and spread hate which is disgusting and even more wrong than buying starbucks. they seem to be more invested in the boycott than actually trying to help the people in palestine like the amount of time and effort spent on trying to force kq and ateez to release a statement could've been spent on trying to raise funds to help innocent palestinians stuck there. and then there are people like this

^ this is annoying because you want people to waste the little time they got with ateez and trying to put ateez on the spot. like there are so many tweets saying "if you got a call w seonghwa/yunho/san pls tell them to tell hongjoong about this situation and educate them" like g0rl you're so keen on indoctrinating someone and not letting them have a different stand on ONE aspect. yes, i'm using the word indoctrinating because that's what it seem rn

it's been widely known that kpop idols are prevented to be politically involved. even during the korean presidential election, they can't verbally show support because as koreans, they have their own reason of doing this which i can explain but it's a whole ted talk and it's gonna take a lot of typing. but point is, keep politics and kpop separate. idk the situation in the us but where i come from, the boycott means nothing because while the boycotted brands are suffering, people who are not idols are still buying from those brands BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN PEOPLE DON'T CARE ABOUT PALESTINIANS. you don't really know where people stand and as much as you're allowed to assume the WORST out of them, they're allowed to enjoy whatever they wanna enjoy. i simply hate the people who immediately erradicate many of hongjoong's philantropic activities on human and children's rights over the years just because he posted a picture holding starbucks like how stupid are you ???

let fake atinys leave the fandom. we're better off without the toxicity from people who are using a tragedy to spread more hate and justify their cancellation agenda

i myself want the liberation of palestinian from hamas and safety for the innocent but seeing as how the situation has elevated to anti-semitism esp in the west, i don't want to be associated with the support of erradication of the jews bc "from the river to the sea" connotates to the errasure of jews and i don't support that as much as i don't support palestinian being put in harm's way

full disclaimer : this is my perspective from the news i got from foreign media because the media where i came from is very biased

if you disagree with me, i would love to have a conversation like civilized human beings with evolved brains

[knightofdeer]

From seeing some of your posts around I see you're a Ukrainian (?) in Donbas or another part of Russian-occupied territory. Do you think the invasion was justified? Do you think the AFU are the real occupiers? If the war ends very soon would you be better off under RF or Ukraine govt? I saw videos of the presidential elections in Avdiivka/Avdeevka (spelling both ways to be "neutral") and it was disturbing but it seems no one except other Russians who are against the govt agree and just thought I was spreading western propaganda against Russia. I was going to send this anon bc my username is embarrassing but it's whatever. I initially supported Ukraine but then was disappointed esp by the seeming lack of solidarity for Palestinians. And the whole time US "anti imperialists" have been pro Russia so I thought maybe they know smth I don't.

(The first 2 questions aren't necessarily what I think but what ML's on here claim)

0. Don't worry about username I was accused of something like this as well

I am not from Russian occupied territory, but I am from Zaporizhzhia and while the city itself wasn't occupied basically the entire oblast was and Russia currently lists us as one of its new territories so I guess I can give some account on how people in the East feel about it

I don't think that the invasion was justified at all. I am not very sympathetic to Ukranian government, but Russian government is literally worse on all accounts and the whole military intervention is simply a matter of imperial conquest. I am not brave enough to speak about opinions of people of Crimea (I was too little when we last time visited it but my mother mentioned that the lady who was renting us a room "didn't want to deal with Ukranians" so who knows) or Donbas, but here most people were not in favour of joining Russia at least in the last decade (including the 2013, I am not even sure was there more than one pro-Russian protest ever). Before the war most people weren't very invested in being part of Ukraine either, but after the war nationalism became much stronger here. Dreaded "anti-Russian" policies of Ukraine are kinda true in a way that the government wants (or at least claims that it wants) to eventually switch everyone to Ukrainian language, but the thing is that it's basically not enforced. I could list a lot of examples, but basically you can live here with knowing only Russian and you will be okay, at most you will need some assistance with filling legal documents but governmental officials are ready to help with that. Things may be a little bit more complicated in the West, but also for majority of people there Ukranian is their first language so it would be bogus to blame them for it, and at least before the war (once again nobody did as much for Ukrainian nationalism as Putin) most people there were okay with people for whom Russian is first language.

I made a whole unrebloggable post that I solidly don't know what's better. For now Ukraine (once the martial law ends) is better, but increased influence of nationalists and military may fuck it up. Also the real problem is that the war of Russia with NATO may not end and being on which side is more fucked is hard to say.

I can't speak facts about Russian elections. There are claims that people on the occupied territories were forced to attend them, but like I am hesitant to believe either way because both states are lying constantly. I can however for sure say that the elections themselves were absolutely staged, even if you disregard the evidence in favour of Putin just fabricating the results, all other candidates were selected in a way that basically whomever wins the course of government stays the same. Maybe some time soon my family will come in contact with some relatives on occupied territories and I will have some insider info.

Lack for solidarity for Palestine is a thing. Generally Ukrainian society aligns itself politically with the West, so average liberal has the same opinions as average American liberal and average fascist has the same opinions as average American fascist. Ukraine is the most exploited part of Europe, but it's still part of Europe (economically and politically, because the statement is pretty ideologically charged lol), which means both that we are not Global South and that we do benefit from European Imperialism. I wouldn't say that society here is meaningfully more racist than European or American ones, but it is definitely not better and therefore pretty racist.

That being said, viewing Russia as anti-Imperialist is absolutely unhinged position. Something close to "critically supporting" Emperor Hirohito. Russia didn't do enough war crimes (yet?) to be literally on par with Japanese Empire, but it is an empire. Even disregarding the invasion, Russia does pretty much typical imperialism in Central Asia, Africa and its own Asian part. I can get behind the sentiment that Russia starting shit weakens the influence of USA, but it just wants its own share of Empire, not any kind of liberation for everyone. Also, experts say that Russian war only led to military consolidation of Europe and USA, so on karmic level it failed to do even this.

[decolonize-the-left]

And the race is on... News just broke that the first man to announce his plan to campaign against Biden in the 2024 elections is leftist James Segal, both a member and founder of the disbanded socialist Bread & Roses Party.

What is the Bread & Roses party? A Democratic socialist party, which explains why he didn't get many votes. (Esp when we know Dems would rather help alt right Dan Cox win than let a leftist like Segal earn a seat... But that's another post.)

And for those of you who don't feel like clicking, a lil excerpt both from the Bread & Roses Site so you can get a feel for it:

... and some of his policies from running for governor, which could give us an idea of what his presidential platform would look like.

“What I want to open up is the option of simple living,” he explains. “And basically the underlying wisdom of simple living, it's sort of the ancient wisdom. It basically [means] there is something bigger to life than getting and spending and it’s better to live frugally and work less because you need less money and devote your time to something better.” x

Now even if y'all don't like all these policies, whether you think they don't lean left enough, or too left, or even if you don't think he'll win, make a big show of supporting him anyway.

Because here is a candidate who's looked at the economy and over production and its affects on both humans and the planet and is not only willing to say it's a problem but to systematically address it and cut back; more than any democrat or Republican is willing to admit, let alone address.

What I've learned over my lifetime of elections is that the one thing Democrats and Republicans rely on most to stop progress is by scaring you into believing candidates who represent progress are radical and extreme and unpopular and don't stand a chance against a "real" candidate like a democrat or Republican.

And time and time again elections come around and sure enough there are the Democrats screaming at everyone to vote blue because voting green or independent or progressive is a wasted vote. Too dangerous to risk on someone who doesn't stand a chance.

And every election season this propaganda strategy works.

So here's how we fix that: show them it's not true. Loudly supporting candidates like these. In this case we have two whole years to show voters, politicians, and the 2 party system that candidates like these do have support and do stand a chance and ARE a threat to the status quo. That we WANT to threaten the status quo. That's it's broken and outdated and unwanted.

So yeah. Even if he's not perfect, spread this like it's the best news you've ever heard.

Because I doubt he'll win too. But winning isn't the point. The point is to show Democrats and Republicans that we are SERIOUS about progress and we are willing to support the destruction of long held traditions and systems to achieve it. That if THEY don't change their platforms to be more progressive and geared toward systematically addressing the USA's many faults and inequalities, that they'll get left behind too. Because we WILL support progressive and leftist candidates because we WANT progress. We WANT the monopoly that democratic moderates and Republican conservatives have on the elections to end.

We need to show them that just being a Democrat isn't enough anymore. That's it's not enough to simply be the "lesser evil" in comparison to Republicans anymore.

We need to show them that presidential candidates need to be actively better for the USA rather than being passively awful.

[60sgroove]

I think it would be nearly impossible but I feel like for elections (esp presidential elections), we should get a candidate #1, #2, etc. and not know who is actually running. I can guarantee you we would have a female president in no time if voters were unable to actually see who was running. Each voter would get information on the candidate's stance on key issues but they would not receive their names or information relating to demographics. The candidates would have to go through a background check and would be able to list qualifications (not too specific so voters would immediately know who it was). I know this will never happen and I don't even know how it would but it just bothers me so much because we are so biased when it comes to what a president should look like, sound like etc. and this inevitably and predictably disadvantages minorities. Ultimately it prevents us from electing the objectively most fit for office.

[strawberrygirldick]

i totally get and see where you're coming from with regards to not letting republicans win, and i don't have any solutions but i do know that the democratic party sees Vote Blue No Matter Who as clearance to go further and further right and is how we ended up here in the first place. i dont think theres a solution that solves both keep republicans out and also don't give democrats the idea that genocide is acceptable, as the answers to those two things are at odds with one another.

i think the reason so many people are picking the idea of not voting for biden rather than voting to keep republicans out is because its the option that allows for maybe a better future overall in a decade rather than a less bad immediate future (not saying that a less bad immediate future is an unworthy goal, but it is one that can be solved outside of presidential elections as well, while presidential elections are pretty much the only sway on the president that the average citizen has).

i also have learned via actual research lately that things are not as much better policy-wise under biden compared to under trump as we tend to think, unfortunately, and theres only been one or two things that are materially better rather than just a better social media presence.

i'm not exactly trying to change your mind or anything, but i thought having some sort of explanation for the not voting for biden movement other than flippant tumblr posts might help some understanding, esp given i know youre coming from a good place!!

Holy shit a reasonable take on the situation. You have a genuine thanks from me anon.

[horizon-verizon]

Biden went from repeating the beheaded babies lie to repeating the Hamas bombed itself lie without a moment of contemplation. No Muslim, Arab or advocate for Palestine can vote for this evil man again. Ever.

Agreed on that. Really, more than Palestinians and Arabs and any other Muslims, more people should go out and vote against the person they researched their damndest would not support Fascist models of policy. I don't mean the presidential election, because it might just be too late then because the point is to get better candidates into lower elections so they may rise up to the presidential one. I mean local, municipal, Congress. Congres, esp, since they are actually the ones to have the power to have the U.S. go to war, they are the ones who can deny the president's wish to go to war, they are the ones budgeting war campaigns, and they are the ones who actually declare war. The president merely leads the troops as the chief executive officer after the fact and can propose going to war. Checks and balances.

[rollsoffthetongue]

THE BOTTOM LINE

Idiomatic Meaning: The final result; central or salient point; The fundamental and most important or determining factor; the essence, the point, the crux of the argument; the final analysis, conclusion, or outcome, esp. after a debate.

Literal Meaning: Most basically, a line drawn underneath anything, such as a column of figures, or even the final line in a series of horizontal perhaps parallel lines.                                                  

Usage: Formal and informal, spoken and written general American and British English. “The bottom line” is a noun, though increasingly it is being used as a verb as in“bottom line me”, a request to leave out the details of an explanation and skip to the important part. 

Origin: Mid -19th Century – The phrase was repopularized in the mid-1960s by corporate America to describe the physical bottom line of a profit and loss statement where the final numerical figure is placed, showing whether a company made a profit or took a loss. By the 1980s, the term “the bottom line” took on a figurative sense to mean the most important facet of a situation or the outcome of a situation. 

Why is this funny? In the photo, we see an older gentleman with many wrinkles or lines in his forehead. He is complaining about getting old and how old he looks with those lines. Someone else tells him that, in reality, no one cares about his wrinkles. This person is saying that “the bottom line” is that neither the bottom line nor any other line in his forehead is relevant!

Sample Sentence: “The bottom line” of the 2020 US presidential election is that Trump lost.

[tomatoluvr69]

I hope you all (esp. americans but let’s be real everyone) realize we are currently in the blessed 6 month downtime before the incessant insanity-inducing relentlessness of presidential election coverage begins. Cherish it

[statespoll]

Election 2022 Senate Prediction Map November 7, 2022(Final Map)

My analysis is neutral, not biased. Based on

1) Presidential Election 2020 Fox New Voter Analysis  

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis

2) Latest Poll(adjustment)

3) Voter registration statistics Trend + VBM

4) Oppostion Party’s Advantage on the Midterm

(more Rep % / less Dem % than Presidential Year)

My 2022 Senate Race Final Map on the Twitter:

Governor Races: PAGov Solid D / WIGov Lean R

* My Party ID % By States speculation post:

https://statespoll.com/post/699439301682954240 (October 29, 2022)

Last Updated: 11/7 7:30PM(EST)

I. BattleGround States

1. Pennsylvania

1) My Party ID speculation, PA

with leaner: REP 47% / DEM 46% / IND 7%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Research Co. 11/2-11/6, 450 LV

https://researchco.ca/2022/11/07/2022-midterm-uspoli/

https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Tables_StateRaces_USA_07Nov2022.pdf

Decided Voters: Fetterman 49 / Oz 48

Crosstabs:

DEM  Fetterman 94 / Oz 6

REP  Fetterman 12 / Oz 83

IND   Fetterman 50 / Oz 50

Considering Crosstabs It looks like oversampled REP.

(2) Marist 10/31-11/2 1,021 LV (1,152 RV)

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-2022-elections-in-pennsylvania-2/

Fetterman 51 / Oz 45

Corsstabs:

Among White Voters: Fetterman 47 / Oz 48

(FYI 2020 Marist PA Final White Voters: BIden 48 / Trump 50 )

Philly Fetterman: 83 / Oz 10

Philly Suburbs:  Fetterman 56 / Oz 42

(3) Fox 10/26-10/30 1,005 RV

Fetterman 47 / Oz 43 (Alredy Voted/certained to vote)

R 45 / D 44 / IND 11 R+1 Samples

White Voters: Fetterman 45 / Oz 44 / Other 4

(2020 Fox PA final D +5 Samples, White Voters: Trump 51 / Biden 45)

https://foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-half-pennsylvanians-say-senate-debate-factor-their-vote

(4) Monmouth 10/27-10/31 608 LV

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_pa_110222/

Fetterman 48 / Oz 44

Samples, Self Party ID: REP 37% / DEM 36% / Indy 27% R +1%

Crosstabs

White Voters: Fetterman 46 / Oz 47

(2020 Monmouth PA Final White voters: Trump 52 / Biden 43)

with Total D +5 samples.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_PA_110220/

White: From R+9(2020) to R+1(2022)

(5) NYT/Siena 10/24-10/26, 620 LV

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html

Fetterman 49% / Oz 44%

Samples: R 36% / D 35% / IND 24% / Other 5%  R +1%  

Crosstabs

White: Fetterman 46 / Oz 48

Black: Fetterman 86 / Oz 6

Other(Mainly Hispanic/Asian): Fetterman 60 / Oz 36

My Adjusted %: Fetterman 50.0% / Oz 45.1%  D +4.9%

Fetterman: R(47)x9+D(46)x92+I(7)x49=49.98

Oz: R(47)x87+D(46)x3+I(7)x41=45.14

3) Pennsylvania Sen Race 2022 Forecast: Lean D

2. Arizona

1) My Party ID speculation, AZ

with leaner: REP 50% / DEM 43% / IND 7%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Data for Progress 11/2-11/6 1,359 LV (1,157 RV)

Masters 50% / Kelly 49%

https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/11/dfp_az_final_midterm_tabs.pdf

(2) Marist 10/31-11/2 1,015 LV (1,157 RV)

LV Model: Kelly(D) 50 / Masters® 47

My Adjusted %: Kelly(D) +2.28%

Kelly(D): R(51)x10+D(43)x98+I(6)x53=50.42

Masters®: R(51)x88+D(43)x2+I(6)x40=48.14

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Marist-Poll_AZ-NOS-and-Tables_202211031029.pdf

(3) Civiqs 10/29-11/2. 852 LV

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_AZ_banner_book_2022_11_4t7yks.pdf

Masters 49% / Kelly 49%

My Adjusted %: Masters(REP) +2.71%

Masters: R(50)x93+D(43)x1+I(7)x50=50.43

Kelly: R(50)x4+D(43)x99+I(7)x45=47.72

(4) NYT/Siena 10/24-10/26, 604 LV(Pre-victor drops out poll)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html

Kelly 51% / Masters 45%

Samples: R 33% / D 29% / IND 32% / Other 6%  R +4%  

My Adjusted %: Kelly 50.05% / Masters 48.17%. D +1.88%

Kelly: R(50)x10+D(43)x95+I(7)x60=50.05

Masters: R(50)x88+D(43)x4+I(7)x35=48.17

3) Arizona Sen 2022 Forecast: Tilt R

3. Georgia

1) My Party ID speculation, GA

with leaner: REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND 7%,

imo GA Early Voting Favors GOP(ESP race %)

2) Latest Poll

(1) Fox 10/26-10/30, 1,002 RV

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-walker-gains-ground-in-georgia-senate-race

Walker 46% / Warnock 45%

(2) NYT/Siena 10/24-10/27, 604 LV

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html

Warnock 49% / Walker 46%

Samples: R 34% / D 33% / IND 26% / Other 7%  R +1%  

My Adjusted %: Walker 51.3% / Warnock 46.0%. Walker R +5.3%

Walker: R(51)x92+D(42)x4+I(7)x39=51.33

Warnock: R(51)x5+D(42)x95+I(7)x51=46.02

3) Georgia Sen 2022 Forecast: Tilt R~Lean R

4. Wisconsin

1) My Party ID speculation, WI

with leaner: REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND 7%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Data for Progress 10/14-10/22, 1,376 LV

Johnson 51% /  Barnes 46%

https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_wi_midterm_tabs.pdf

My Adjusted %: Johnshon +5.29%

Johnson: R(51%)x96%+D(42%)x3%+IND(7%)x45%= 51.95%

Barnes:R(51%)x4%+D(42%)x96%+IND(7%)x50%= 45.86%

3) Wisconsin 2022 Sen Race Forecast: Likely R

5. Nevada

1) My Party ID speculation, NV

with leaner: REP 47% / DEM 42% / IND 11%,

2) Latest Poll

(1) NYT/Siena 10/19-10/24, 885 LV

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html

Laxalt 47% / Masto 47%

Samples: D 32% / R 30% / IND 32% / Other 6%  D +2%  

My Adjusted %: Laxalt 51.1% / Masto 45.8% R +5.3%

Laxalt: R(47)x94+D(42)x4+I(11)x48=51.14

Masto: R(47)x5+D(42)x93+I(11)x40=45.81

(2) Data for Progress 10/13-10/19, 819 LV

https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_nv_midterm_crosstabs.pdf

Laxalt 49 / Masto 48

My Adjusted %: Laxalt R +3.79%

Laxalt: R(47)x93+D(42)x5+I(11)x44=50.65

Masto: R(47)x4+D(42)x94+I(11)x50=46.86

3) Nevada 2022 Forecast: Lean R

imo NV Early voting favors GOP

6. New Hampshire

1) My Party ID speculation, NH

with leaner: REP 48% / DEM 42% / Pure IND 10%

FYI) 2020 Fox voter analysis NH: REP 48% / DEM 45% / IND 7%

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis?state=NH

FYI) 2018 Fox voter analysis NHGov: REP 42% / DEM 42% / IND 15%

2020 NHPres wasn’t a competitive race. and Still It was R +3

This year is a Biden Midterm + NHSen is being a competitive race.

My speculation Party Breakdown in NH R 47 D 42 IND 11

2) Latest Poll

(1) UNH 11/2-11/6, 2,077 LV

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1717&context=survey_center_polls

Hassan 50% / Bolduc 48%

My Adjusted %: Bolduc(REP) +1.84%

Bolduc: R(48)x94+D(42)x1+undeclared party(10)x45=50.04

Hassan: R(48)x4+D(42)x99+undeclared party(10)x47=48.2

(2) Saint Anselm College 10/28-10/29 1,541 LV

https://www.anselm.edu/new-hampshire-institute-politics/new-poll-saint-anselm-college-survey-center-shows-gop-momentum

Bolduc 48% / Hassan 47%

My Adjusted %: Bolduc(REP) +4.61%

Bolduc: R(47)x89+D(42)x5+undeclared party(11)x50=49.43

Hassan: R(47)x5+D(42)x93+undeclared party(11)x31=44.82

* undecieded. REP 4% / DEM 1% / Undeclared(Indy) 12% Which favors Bolduc more.

3) New Hampshire Sen 2022 Forecast: Tilt R

7. Colorado

1) My Party ID speculation, CO

with leaner: DEM 43% / REP 42% / IND 15%

FYI) DeSantis Endorsed O’dea (10/23)

2) Latest Poll

(1) Trafalgar 10/30-11/1. 1,084 LV

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/TRF-CO-General-1102-Poll-Report.pdf

Bennet (DEM) 47.6% / O’dea (REP) 46.1%.  Bennet(D) +1.5%

(2) Civiqs 10/15-10/18, 600 LV

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_CO_banner_book_2022_10_t23jdx.pdf

Poll results: Bennet (DEM) 54% / O’dea (REP) 41%.

Poll samples: D 39 / R 29 / IND 32 D +10% (imo oversampled D)

My adjusted % :Bennet 49 / O’dea 46  D +3%

Bennet: D(43)x96+R(42)x2+IND(15)x46=49.02

O’dea: D(43)x2+R(42)x92+IND(15)x44=46.01

(3) Marist 10/3-10/6. 983 LV

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Marist-Poll-Colorado-NOS-and-Tables_202210071602.pdf

Bennet 49% / O’dea 43%

My Adjusted %: Bennet 49.4% / O’dea 45.9%.  Bennet +3.45%

Bennet: D(43%)x93%+R(42%)x5%+I(15)x43%=48.54

Odea: D(43%)x3%+R(42%)x90%+I(15)x40%=45.09%

(4) Data for Progress 10/3-10/6, 1,005 LV

Bennet 50% / O’dea 41%

https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_co_midterm_toplines.pdf

My Adjusted %: Bennet 49% / O’dea 45.8%.  Bennet +3.2%

Bennet: D(43%)x93%+R(42%)x4%+I(17)x43%=48.98%

Odea: D(43%)x3%+R(42%)x89%+I(17)x42%=45.81%

3) Colorado Sen 2022 Forecast: Lean D

8. Ohio

1) My Party ID speculation, NC

with leaner: REP 54% / DEM 41% / IND 5%

FYI) 2020 Fox analysis, REP 54% / DEM 41% / IND 5%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Marist 10/17-10/20, 1,141 LV

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-2022-elections-in-ohio-2/

Poll samples: REP 37 DEM 34 IND 28

Poll results: Vance(REP) 46% / Ryan(DEM) 45% / Undecided 8%

My Adjusted %: R +8.35%

Vance: R(54)x87+D(41)x6+IND(5)x41= 51.49

Ryan: R(54)x7+D(41)x91+IND(5)x41= 43.14

(2) Cygnal 10/18-10/22, 1,547 LV

https://www.cygn.al/cygnal-momentum-tracking-poll-ohio-statewide-10-23-22/

Poll samples:  

Poll results: Vance 46.9 / Ryan 43.3

My Adjusted %: R +6.81%

Vance: R(54)x84+D(41)x5+IND(5)x40= 49.41

Ryan: R(54)x8+D(41)x88+IND(5)x44= 42.6

3) NC Sen 2022 Forecast: Likely R

9. North Carolina

1) My Party ID speculation, NC

with leaner: REP 50% / DEM 42% / IND 8%

FYI) 2020 Fox analysis, NC: R 50 D 44 IND 6

And NC Voter regd have shifted as Trend R +1.6% since nov,2020

2) Latest Poll

(1) SurveyUSA 9/28-10/2, 677 LV

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=97eb868a-a6ae-4ed5-b5c1-2e8891119914

Poll samples: R 35% D 35% IND&Other 28%

Poll results: Budd(REP) 43% / Beasley(DEM) 42%

Adjusted: Budd(REP) 48.4% / Beasley 40.74%.  R +7.66%

Budd: REP(50%)x87+DEM(42%)x5%+IND(8%)x35%= 48.4%

Beasley: REP(50%)x4%+DEM(42%)x85%+IND(8%)x38%= 40.74%

(2) Civiqs, 9/17-9/20, 586 LV

https://t.co/cwPoQfGcyG

Poll samples: R 36.8% D 36.1% IND&Other 27.1%

Poll results: Beasley(DEM) 49% / Budd(REP) 48%

Adjusted: Budd(REP) 52.0% / Beasley 45.1%  R +6.9%

Budd: REP(50%)x94+DEM(42%)x3%+IND(8%)x47%= 52.02%

Beasley: REP(50%)x1%+DEM(42%)x97%+IND(8%)x48%= 45.08%

3) NC Sen 2022 Forecast: Likely R

[emma-what-son]

I know a little about the “cult” Emma is supposed to have joined (according to Deuxmoi).

So, JZ Knight, who runs the Ramtha School of Enlightenment in Washington State, is a pretty prolific best-selling author. Knight claims that she can channel a warrior named Ramtha, who is over 3,000 yrs old or something. She essentially is a new age medium of sorts and claims to be clairvoyant and have ESP and a whole hist of psychic abilities. She has been around since the 1970s I think and has been on many talk shows over the years etc. She has a lot of followers who seem to be interested in her new age, spiritual practices and mediumship. People looking to get answers to “higher” questions and closer to “enlightenment.” The Ramtha School of Enlightenment is supposed to help students learn how to channel their past selves and learn what their true purpose is and how to focus their lives in that direction. Knight talks about learning the “tools to unlock the mind.” Supposedly.

Now, take all of this with a grain of salt! This is info I’ve gained from some pretty basic research I did on JZ Knight a few years back and glancing through some of her books. To me, she reads very much like other authors you’d find in the New Age section of most book stores. Well, except for the channeling of Ramtha…. That is her big claim to fame.

However, she has been successful in turning heads of the right sort of people with her teachings…meaning people with money and influence, like celebrities. I’ve also heard people say she appeals to “baby boomer soccer moms.” Knight herself comes across as someone who likes the spotlight and celebrity. She’s made rounds on many talk shows over the years and turns up in the news from time to time, usually not for anything positive though.

About a decade ago, I remember some scandal over former students claiming they were abused at Ramtha School, physically and with gaslighting. And there was a case with an ex-husband in court, where he claimed that all her teachings were lies etc. and she kept him from getting medical treatment for his HIV I think it was?

This is all just public knowledge that has been reported…I don’t know what is true or lies and haven’t looked into it enough to say much more.

After the last US presidential election, Knight did cause some uproar. According to newspapers, she was posting on social media that Trump was the rightful winner and the election was unfair and calling for a coup of the government! (Similar to the Jan 6 rioters in opinion. Basically trying to incite rioting…)

Previously though, Knight had supported Democratic candidates (she’s quite wealthy). But she seemed to be VERY publicly supportive of Trump most recently.

I’ve taken an interest in this in the past because I had a friend who grew up nearby in Washington and I spent time in the area. I got the impression from my friend that locally, they considered Knight to be a rich self-help lady that would give talks and donate money to things.

Basically, I think that there are different levels of involvement with JZ Knight and the Ramtha School of Enlightenment. I think she’s kind of a “brand” that some people dabble in. Others seem to be more devotees and attend the school.

Regardless of if her spiritual claims are true or it’s all a racket, JZ has had some very serious accusations surrounding her and her treatment of people and her judgement, so I’d personally tread carefully if I were in the public eye. Even if you just have curiosity towards her mediumship, as many do, it might not do your career/image any favors associating with her.

Thanks for the info. Imo it's usually better to stay away from people like JZ Knight. There are people who might want to give her the benefit of the doubt, but these people usually do the things they do to help themselves. And as far as the accusations go, there's usually no smoke without fire. I wouldn't trust her at all.

[saotome-michi]

This is the dream.

[juviin]

aaaaaanyways since today was the first debate i did not watch it just bc im sick, but since i’ll be 18 by primaries and the 2020 elections i just want yall to know that theres a high likelihood that i’ll be posting some political stuff in the next year and a half or so, but i’ll make sure to tag it all w politics bc i know that not everyone wants to see political posts and half of u probably arent even from america

[ivenez]

no because some people think they're god

[ohmy7hearts]

spring gale

Summary: Spring means new beginnings but a gale (a storm more like?) in the name of Shinazugawa Sanemi blows your plans out and throw your once peaceful life into the winds.

Pairings: Shinazugawa Sanemi x Fem!Reader // future Shinazugawa Genya x SisterFigure!Reader 

A/N: this,,, is v impromptu. i literally got out of my bed bc it has been bugging me with how little sanemi fanfics there are, esp modern aus. tbh, there have been plenty of fics brewing in my mind and tell me if there’s any you’d be interested in and maybe i will return from my hiatus hah:

 - zhongli modern au: adepti babies being your adopted children and navigating parenthood 

- unknown pairing as of now but travelers being your kids so transporting yourself into the world to find them after 500+ years of not returning home 

- etc involving atsumu, diluc, childe but if you have any requests, feel free to drop it in and maybe i’ll consider them

Warnings: Some cursing (I mean it’s Sanemi lolol)

“Shinazugawa-san?” Sanemi glanced up, his hands continued packing away his things into the bag, an eyebrow raised. You smiled, hands folded over the other in front of you, as you continued to speak after gaining his attention. “When would you be free to do the project?”

He sighed, throwing his bag over his shoulder, while making his way out of the classroom - tone and body language showing his disinterest in the conversation. “We can just do it in class.”

You jogged to get into step next to him, “Well, it is for the bare minimum. I’m sure we can do much better than that.” You observed his side profile to see if any emotion could give way to what he was thinking. You frowned, frustration creeping up on you, “I understand that we’re not each other’s first choice in partners but that’s not an excuse to not do our best.”

“Are grades and studying the only thing in that airhead of yours?” His eyes flit towards yours for a moment before returning its gaze forward. “I don’t fucking have as much free time as you.”

You stopped following him. A bolt of anger and disbelief had your mouth dropping and hands curling into shaking fists. You scoffed, voice raising with each word, “I believe you need this more than me, Shinazugawa-san. Unless you want to continue being a pain in everyone’s ass and eventually not even graduate, then be my guest.” 

He swiveled towards you. You flinched reactively. He faltered, face momentarily flitting from anger to surprise back to annoyance the moment his eyes scanned you. One step, two steps. He was in your space, breathing in and out to you, with his  strikingly cold eyes and thin eyebrows furrowed. “Say that again, I dare you.”

You closed your eyes before releasing a deep sigh, muscles easing from the hold of your anger. “We don’t have to do it after school or on the weekends if you are that occupied. We can do it before school or during our breaks and even before our clubs start.” You grabbed one of his wrist, turning his palm upwards, shoving the crumpled paper with your number into it while fixating your glare on him throughout. You refuse to back down but you will be the bigger person. Forcing his hand to a close, you narrowed your eyes for good measure while trying to control the smirk from overtaking your face when his frown further deepened in distaste. Taking a step back, your hands returned to the usual folded stance, you forced an amicable smile to replace the smirk - although you have a feeling that he could still see the smirk from how his eye twitched, “Of course, it’s really up to you, Shinazugawa-san.”

Turning on your heel, you headed back to the classroom with your head held high and a full-blown smirk on your face while your peers watched with stolen glances and whispers behind hands or under breaths. The clicking of his tongue echoed in the corridor and in your head all the way back to the classroom. 

“Ara, ara, should you really do that (Y/N)-chan?” Shinobu greeted you by your desk, eyes filled with mirth from the free entertainment.

You laughed airily, eyes not meeting hers but focused on clearing the messy table, “I wouldn’t have to if he wasn’t that difficult.” 

“Not many survive Sanemi you know?” Shinobu followed you to the student council room. “One must use their life's worth of luck to crawl out from his bad side.” 

A bark of a laugh escaped you from her exaggeration. “Shinobu-chan ~ I thought you wanted to get into medicine and not theatrics?”

Her eyes met yours, a smirk tugging on her lips, eyes shifting precariously into ones when she knew something the other party doesn’t and in this case that was you. A shiver ran down your spine. You’ve been in the spot only a few times but still a few too many with most of them ending up jerking your view of the world down a path you’ve never considered. You gulped, hands itching and playing with themselves. 

“Did you not hear about how he got into a fight with some university boys down at the park?” She leaped into your space, voice dropping into a whisper in your ear yet head tilted to ensure a front seat view to your reaction. “He came out with a couple of scratches and bruises but…” Her small hands encircled your upper arm. Your eyes dropping to them before returning to her face - surprised to witness your shock colouring your face white as it was reflected in those big eyes of hers. “The boys said to be much bigger than he is, had to go to the hospital.” Her smile bordering on unhinged glee, she drawled, “They were so scared they didn’t sue him.”

She immediately returned to her spot beside you, a foot away, while her shoulders and arms lifted in a form of a shrug nonchalantly. “Apparently, when questioned, the boys said something about them being the ones out of line and they have worked things out.” 

Being close friends with Shinobu and Mitsuri meant that you were privy to the latest gossip and news but you always took it with a grain of salt seeing firsthand how some things were purposefully voided or added for the enjoyment of teenagers. You smiled unsurely, “that’s just a rumour Shinobu-chan.”

She pouted, invisible to those who didn't know her well enough or who weren’t keen enough, “You can ask Akio. He was a witness.”

Your eyes widened before blinking in incredulity. “What.”

She giggled, hand raising in a wave before dashing down the corridor. “Do share with me if he tells you more!” 

It took you a few seconds to regain your bearings, even a shake of your head to rid the mental image of Sanemi punching away on people bigger than him for his amusement. He was by no means a small person shown clearly with the muscles seen even through the school uniform - a testament to his achievements as one of the greatest fighters in the taekwondo club despite his lacklustre participation of actually attending said club practices - but there were certainly bigger and taller people in your school, much less university. 

“Hashimoto-san!” You snapped out of your musings.

“Tanaka-san.” You greeted back. The black haired guy chuckled, “I told you to call me by my first name. After all, we’ve been working together for 3 years. Unless, you don’t see me as a friend? Damn, it must hurt to only be seen as a student council partner even after winning the presidential election together.”

“Stop being so dramatic.” You huffed, plopping down into the chair and hands gravitating towards the papers on the table before being stopped by a hand on your wrist. Raising an eyebrow, he returned the gesture indicating there’s something he was expecting you to tell him. He released the grasp on your hand the moment you were falling back onto the back support of the chair with a sigh. “How may I help you Akio?”

“On the way here, I heard an interesting piece of news.” He sat sideways on the table, the leg on the table folded over the leg still standing. You folded your arms over your chest and hummed. “You and Shinazugawa were fighting?”

“It was just a talk that got a bit heated. I was trying to get a hold on him so we can do our project for literature together.” 

Akio’s eyebrows shot up and disappeared under his bangs. “Wow, what luck. First, he somehow got into your class through that stupid maths shit and now you have to deal with him.” He smiled in assurance, eyes crinkling close and  a hand over his heart. “Be careful but if anything happens, I’m here. I’ll come running to save my beloved president.”

You mouthed a wow. Silence blanketed the both of you as you nod in understanding - lips trying to contain the smiles and laughs - as he continued to express his devotion through his hand gestures - hand flying to point at you before returning to over his chest, patting it, then forming into a prayer of sorts - all the while mouthing his loyalty to you. 

With a shake of your head and hands indicating him to leave as you pulled yourself closer to your table, “Thanks but I doubt I need it.”

Instead, he tilted his head backwards and narrowed his eyes on the ceiling. “If you see what I saw, I wouldn’t put too much faith in him.”

Blood freezes over while questions overwhelm your mind. You gulped and licked your lips to get rid of the sudden dryness, “And what exactly are they?”

“He didn’t stop beating them up or screaming at them even when they were down. Three policemen had to pry him off and restrain him.”

Your heart dropped.