#edited for historical accuracy
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Headcanon #753
The Treasures of Ruin cause so much destruction because they’re enraged about being stolen from their home region by the Paldean Empire in the 17th century.
#submission#pokemon#treasures of ruin#pokemon headcanon#Not that it was implied here but I really hate it when people pretend artifacts from other regions wouldn't be stolen during conquests#i wonder what was taken during the Mongolian Empire#or the ottoman empire#What did the Barbary pirates take?#but you do you by pretending the hands of other side are clean#“But Spices” Yeah they were used by the wealthy until the common folk started using them and the rich started pushing the natural flavor b#edited for historical accuracy#the Spanish empire did not reach that far east but they still went to china at some point
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chrono | latest
#ts4#ts4 edit#the sims 4#the sims 4 edit#demon fm#dfm#demon fm chrono#silas#im being doomed by the desire for historical accuracy
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in light of a second migration to this site i just need to speak my truth which is that harrow is a redditor gideon is a twitter user and ianthe is a tumblrina hope this helps
#coronabeth is an instagram influencer obviously#and babs is a tiktok one they collab#camilla is like that one user on that math forum who posts answers to insane equations no one can solve without a proof to explain how#palamedes meanwhile is a quora/yahoo answers (rip) certified expert who gives helpful and detailed answers to everything#slash ao3 writer on the side#i know we all see john as a twitch streamer but i think he's most like a discord mod#wait lowkey that's mercy but i want to give them all unique sites so. ok fine john is the streamer and mercy is his insufferable twitch mod#pyrrha stars in like a woodworking/survivalist skill youtube channel that's filmed and run by nona#who is always giving encouraging commentary from behind the camera she just wants everyone to see how awesome her dadmom is#abigail has a channel where she talks about famous historical events or like analyzes media based on historical accuracy#magnus pops into frame as her every now and then bringing her tea or asking a question. she doesn't edit him out bc the fans love him#augustine is a podcaster. the WORST kind#isaac and jeannemary run a gaming channel where they play the same games as jod and bully him online#one day magnus pops in during a livestream. they are embarrassed but the few crossover fans from abi's channel start going crazy in the chat#judith would just like. write a memoir i think#one of those with a super patriotic portrait on the cover#dulcinea is also an ao3 author she and pal do fic exchanges and she's also like a cool fanartist idk on what platform. maybe here#silas has a girl defined channel or he's one of those people who spends all their time arguing in facebook comments#mercy would also be that person considering she literally references that one church lady. her neuroticism is just peak overly online person#oh oh nona and the gang also get pyrrha to do sexy tiktok dances for her channel they are highly successful#god i haven't even gotten into the BoE characters this cast is so fucking large i'm stopping here#the way i was literally just going to add one tag to this and then i couldn't stop lol anyways we have fun here#tlt#the locked tomb#ntn spoilers#nona spoilers#nona the ninth spoilers#tlt spoilers#the locked tomb spoilers#(just in case bc of a few tags)
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Behind the scenes mischief :) || part 2/? || m: Krabat (2008)
#points for historical accuracy and all that but the fake teeth oof 😬#I didn't touch the video clip btw#whoever edited the behind the scenes stuff is responsible 👀#I love how everyone with a longer wig got to wear silly little hair clips 😌#krabat 2008#gifs#gifset#video#mine
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"She was a ruthless woman who injured many, myself and my sainted mother included. She was quite capable of playing the King false, I promise you. My advice to you, Sister, is to forget you ever had a mother like that." Elizabeth caught the note of obsessive grievance in Mary's voice. She knew instinctively that it would be unwise to provoke her further by arguing with her. "Forgive me, Sister, but I had heard otherwise," she said simply. "Then you heard wrongly. She had me sent to wait upon you when you were a baby, and she told those that had charge of me to beat me for the little bastard I had become. How could you think such a one innocent?" "I am very sorry for your afflictions, Sister," Elizabeth whispered, aware more of the need to be diplomatic than of the desire to defend her mother. "They were not of my making, nor my desire." "How could you think her innocent?" "I heard things," she answered, then grew a touch defiant. "The whole world does not think my mother guilty."
The Lady Elizabeth [Chapter 8: 1544], Alison Weir
#chose this is as the 'equivalent' scene bcus to me that sort of made sense...#this scene did not really feel...earned?#and a lot of theirs didn't; really.#because elizabeth never really got her moment to counter#with: well. i was an infant when all that happened. what; realistically; do you think i could have done?#also for tudors week i never got around to doing the edit for my favorite tudor rivarly/siblings. i would have picked them#and also elizabeth's turnaround on AB in BE ; the turn from shame to tenderness was never properly...explained?#i wonder if there is a deleted scene somewhere. where someone spoke well of her. idk. given the script it seems unlikely#also 'little bastard' is odd specifically lol. that's what chapuys referred to elizabeth as. not anne towards mary (ac/cursed bastard.#it was specifically her maturity that was the threat. so...)#'younger even. when i was sent to serve you' honestly that scene is infuriating lol#im less a pendant on historical accuracy or 'authenticity' when there is#at least an emotional honesty to the scene but knowing the actual timeline makes it...#very clear that it's emotional manipulation in a way the actual text refused to recognise#maybe it would have by s2. idk!#i do love the acting in the scene tho. how elizabeth flinches from her and mary clings to her. gahhh#it's similar to the body language of theirs in the field#except then mary clings to her angrily
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"Ed Iskandar talked with God. Then it was Lucifer’s turn. Now he was addressing Adam and Eve.
[...]
Right now, Iskandar was rehearsing the plays from Act I, including Madeleine George’s 10-minute piece about the Fall of Man, which she gives the elaborate title, “A Worm Walks Into A Garden or The Fall of Man, an experiment in motive and comedy.” In it, Lucifer tells dumb jokes to Adam and Eve, as a way of seducing them. Adam finds them funny. Eve doesn’t.
“You’re missing a crucial part of your anatomy,” Lucifer says to Eve. “The funnybone.”
Lucifer is being played by Asia Kate Dillon.
[...]
Dillon was writhing and entwining themself around Eve. Suddenly Chase Brock, the show’s choreographer, got down on the floor and started to writhe on the floor along with Lucifer. Brock had researched the earthworm, and showed some pictures of earthworms to Dillon on his laptop to suggest other moves they could make."
"50 different plays by almost as many different playwrights is a massive undertaking in which each vignette varies in tone from the one before it. The actors playing the characters do not change from play to play; this forces the performers to be as comfortable and convincing with farce as they are playing tragedy. It is also fascinating to contemplate the mental and emotional gymnastics that each performer of The Bats (the resident acting company of The Flea) must have undergone to ensure that each character maintains the same internal psychological throughline when they appear in different plays by very different authors.
The first act deals with the Old Testament books and the Nativity. In playwright Dale Orlandersmith’s Song of the Trimorph, the angels in Heaven mindlessly worship God (a deliciously petty, yet shrewdly authoritative Matthew Jeffers), who takes it as His due until Lucifer (Asia Kate Dillon) starts to question whether love without choice means anything.
Dillon’s beautifully delicate, white-haired devil is one of the show’s most complex figures. Watching them evolve from nuanced philosopher to diabolical heavy to world-weary cynic, depending on the vignette, is fascinating. The narrative speeds its way through the Bible. Highlights include Madeleine George’s surprisingly feminist take on the Adam and Eve story; Hwang’s marvelously urgent Cain and Abel tale, which posits the first murder as a story of vengeance against a capricious God; and Mallery Avidon’s whimsically horrifying tale of Noah’s Flood, which also entails the deaths of everyone who didn’t make it aboard the Ark.
[...]
The show’s second section deals with the Life of Jesus, with Colin Waitt’s astonishingly variegated boy-next-door Jesus shifting from an idealistic dreamer as he travels with Mary and Joseph to a forceful, almost angry philosopher when he argues with Lucifer about the nature of love to a bratty dolt when he confronts Gabriel about his inevitable fate. The fact that the playwrights clearly have a different idea of Jesus’s personality sets Wiatt a complex task: He has to make his Christ the same in all situations; whether he’s being comic or tragic, Wiatt is convincing and moving in a performance of stunning versatility.
Indeed, his likable turns in Gabriel Jason Dean’s beautiful Christ Enters Jerusalem makes his ferocious agonies in Qui Nguyen’s Christ Before Herod and his subsequent crucifixion all the more heartrending. The third act deals with Christ’s resurrection and humanity’s fate at the Day of Judgment, and includes a series of plays set in modern times, as well as God’s final words to Lucifer, Jesus, and to us. The show’s final Day of Judgment coda by Jose Rivera is an essay of forgiveness and unexpected love."
"Overall, the point of view of The Mysteries leans toward deism, the Enlightenment philosophy that presents God as a kind of clockmaker who created the universe, then left it alone to run according to its own laws. We see God squabbling with, then abandoning, Lucifer, setting in motion the events of the Bible, but even in Eden he is surprisingly enigmatic.
[...]
And, as one of the thieves killed with Jesus prophesies, it may all be for naught; he conjures up a future in which "the religion founded -- haha --upon your existence will be held up to justify the slaughter of millions over hundreds and thousands of years, for the brutal sins of domination and exploitation, the lynchings, the massacres and genocide, the relentless militarism. Everything you stood for will be erased."
[...]
In any case, the company is an almost constant joy. Among the more striking performances, [...] Asia Kate Dillon is a compelling presence as Lucifer."
"Four dozen playwrights take four dozen spiritual positions, which allows bubbles of radical reimagining to emerge only to sink again beneath the waves. For instance, our very first playwright, Dael Orlandersmith, paints Lucifer (Asia Kate Dillon) as a sweetheart Cordelia type refusing to curry favor with an insecure God (Matthew Jeffers). The fallen Light bringer keeps popping up throughout, and yet while Lucifer makes a number of solid points—many vigorously antichurch—they're still costumed as a blood-smeared reptile. Does evil exist? Or does it only exist when it can dress super cool?"
"It begins with a scene in heaven where we meet the lavish Angel Chorus that will be with us for the duration of the play, and witness Lucifer’s expulsion from heaven, something like in Milton’s Paradise Lost.
[...]
We also meet the rebellious Lucifer in that first scene in heaven, played with dazzling cynicism by Asia Kate Dillon, and at the same time the angel Gabriel, played by Alice Allemano, who, obedient to God, in contrast to Lucifer, struggles valiantly trying to make sense out of God’s commands and following through on them. These two, Lucifer and Gabriel, played by tall, striking people, fine actors who resemble one another, hold the vast array together like bookends.
The scenes in the Garden of Eden are delightful, played, appropriately in the nude, by Jaspal Binning as Adam and Alesandra Nahodil as Eve. Throughout the play, Biblical episodes are interpreted by the many playwrights in non-canonical ways and the first of these is brilliant: the knowledge the first couple gain through their disobedient eating of the apple is — how to tell a good joke and how to enjoy one!"
"Act I – The Fall begins with Creation and Lucifer’s fall from grace with God. Lucifer is played by a steady, radiant Asia Kate Dillon who reappears frequently to mix things up with earthlings and the rival angel, Gabriel, played by Alice Allemano makes goodness alluring. God is played by an extremely patient and multi-dimensional Matthew Jeffers whose sense of humor humanizes the Lord."
"As starting points, Dael Orlandersmith’s “Song of the Trimorph (Lucifer’s Lament)” and Liz Duffy Adams’s “Falling for You” are somewhat too abstract, particularly “Falling for You,” which has Lucifer wonder, “How can there be love in the absence of being?”"
"Starting with the Fall, we are introduced to the Angel Gabriel and the fallen angel Lucifer, played by two equally lissome and brilliant young actors, Alice Allemano and Asia Kate Dillon. They compete for God’s affections by using a chorus of singing punk angels."
"Asia Dillon as Lucifer brought the precise mixture of demonic delight and fragility necessary for such an adaptation: watching their performance was like looking at a raw cut in the bowels of the earth, brimming with fire and unimaginable sadness."
(no relevant quotes, but throwing in a brief pdf of a grantee project report that focuses on Engagement)
#edited out inaccurate misgenderings in favor of ''not tiresome'' over ''the Historical letter accuracy of the sources''#which are all right there to peruse as originally written too; so#lucifer isn't evil??? 0 stars. long play too long. ''not that enthused'' reviews are always Worse Quality for limiting the info & taking up#plenty of space with [what info Is given is dedicated to supposedly bolstering some specific ''didn't like that'' view of the author's]#just the kind of stuff that'd annoy me as i hate read movie reviews for things i didn't see in the newspaper at like age 12 metacritically#and that of course [just one person] as the norm whether for ''formal'' reviews or not; liking it or not....not the ideal format.#the emergent info or reflections on the same elements / effects of the material that comes from Various writeups by ppl? mwah.#and of course many include fun little Details / noting something that others don't. it comes with lore#the mysteries#asia kate dillon#lucifer the mysteries#lucifer mysteries#gospel48#unfortunately 2/3rds of the quoted articles on chase brock's page for the mysteries aren't online. cmon....#i feel like there might be one article i found the other night that didn't crop up in this search....might be conflating tweets or smthing#can just update it if so anyways....also again No Idea what the longer brown hair vs shorter ''white'' / blond hair is about lol#it kept being extended & that article i think was written in later months; maybe they cut it partway through#more plausible anyways than that they grew their hair out that hard in just a few months. that they also had during rehearsals. shrug#yeah just revisited my History and no other articles that i found last night (morning); none relevant re: akd lucifer mentions anyways lol#also that that was dialogue akd was delivering as lucifer during the crucifixion...was it given to someone else? is lucifer (probably)#taking the place of one of the fellow crucifees & delivering it; and the author focused on who they're standing in for?
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writing time again!
unfortunately been out all day and exhausted but i'll do my best
#also might have editing to do#because i had phoebe being shocked at seeing a dead guy but then i remembered that she lives in the tower of london#so maybe that wouldn't be so unusual for her#still definitely be shocked that it's her brother though#historical accuracy is turning out harder than i thought help
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Can i request some possessive, maybe even a little mean, Robb Stark nsfw? i need that man in a way that borders on obsession 😭
A/N hope you like it anon. Gets soft at the end. Will edit later for historical accuracy. Requests open.
"Your grace," you began nervously as your husband threw open your bedchamber door. Opening it was hard enough so thinking of the force it took to rattle the hinges made you wince. Perhaps you could finally see the King Robb that maidens swooned for and bards sang of.
"Like a dog? A beast? Numbskulled brute? Is that what you said?" He spat out. His anger, so hard to provoke but equally hard to quell. Now it was righteous too.
“I didn’t mean any of it,” you nervously said. “I only wished to entertain.”
Robb walked towards you and you took a step back. You were vulnerable, only wearing your shift.
“And what did you call yourself? Little more than a whore I paid two coppers for? A greedy little queen, at the mercy of the king?” Robb said. “I can’t even repeat what I heard. Yet you said it when I have done nothing but treat you gently with kindness.”
“It was only my ladies, and I didn’t wish to disappoint, husband.” You said. You placed your hand gently on his chest. “They dream of you, and I couldn’t appear jealous. I needed to show you didn’t lack passion in bed.”
“Wasn’t just the ladies. My men heard you recount your pleasure and now they’re the ones salivating.” He shouted.
“Cease this! It’s childish and I will speak as I wish.” You said, feigning annoyance.
Robb looked madder with each word out of your mouth. He gripped your wrists to the point of pain and spun you around. With a hand on your back, he pushed you face down onto the furs.
"You talk like a whore you get taken like one."
He pushed your chemise up and you felt his fingers find the most sensitive parts of you. He shoved two in roughly, making you scream. Thank the old gods, your plan worked better than expected.
“And what of my men guarding you? Did they have to hear your of escapades? Know how you enjoy in my chamber?” Robb demanded.
The twist of his fingers in your unprepared cunt made tears spring to your eyes.
“Who do you belong to?” He asked. You refused to reply. You shook your head.
“You’re mine, you hear me?” Robb yelled. He slapped your arse to make his point. No need to trigger him even more, you decided. “Who owns ye?” He asked again.
“You do,” you mumbled.
“And I am your King, and your husband. And you had better remember that.”
“Yes, husband.” You whispered. You heard the sounds of him undressing. You didn’t dare move.
Robb held your hips on either side of you and pushed you into the bed.
“Who’ll take you now?” He demanded.
“You, my lord and husband.” You replied submissive. His breathing behind you told you he was still furious.
His hands tightened around your hips and you felt the impossible thickness of his member at your entrance. He'd taken you before, he was your goddamn husband, but never in anger and never like this.
He began to push in, deaf to your cries.
"Robb," you pleaded, your will breaking. He was deep in you but not to the hilt yet. This new position was physically uncomfortable adding to your humiliation. "Please, please." You begged. You didn't know what you were asking for, for him to let you go or for a moment to adjust. But you were so hot you could barely see. You had never felt desire like this. You anticipated your release like Robb returning home.
"No," he said quietly. "You will accept this, wife." He sheathed himself to the hilt within your body. You were glad he'd let go of your arms, so you could twist your fingers into the furs on your bed.
He was deeper than before in this new position, you felt like you were being split open. You reminded yourself you were trying for this reaction. Some part of your heart hurt most of all, knowing that your husband didn't care about the pain he inflicted upon your body. He was mean.
He pulled out again and pushed back in slowly. The deep pleasure knocked the breath out of your lungs. It added to everything you felt from the stretch of his girth.
Your cries grew louder due to pleasure, and you were screaming in abandon at how good he made you feel.
“More, husband, Robb, please.” You begged incoherently. The snap of his hips against yours set a harsh pace.
He tried to stop, to tease you, but he couldn’t. He was too excited looking at your body beneath him.
It didn’t take long before you were clenched around his cock in your pleasure, and he spent in response to you.
Robb collapsed atop you. He rolled over to the side, breathing heavily. You took a moment to calm yourself down and turned to face him. You took his hand in yours carefully, you wanted to know if his anger had been quelled yet. You were pleased when he brought your hand to his lips to kiss it.
“I love you,” he said. “And I have no desire to share you. Not this. Not our time together when we get so little.” Robb confessed. Your heart broke for him. Perhaps you’d gone too far in seeking his passion.
His face grew tense as you didn’t reply. “Have I hurt you, love?” He asked, caressing your cheek. You leaned into his touch with a sigh.
“No, dear husband. I love you too,” you said softly, content.
#robb stark x y/n#robb stark x reader smut#robb stark prompt#robb stark imagines#robb stark x oc#robb stark imagine#robb stark fanfiction#robb stark smut#robb stark x reader#robb stark#robb stark x you#robb stark fanfic#robb stark request#game of thrones smut#game of thrones fanfiction#game of thrones reader insert#game of thrones fic#game of thrones#asoiaf
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in view of Netflix and a few other networks apparently announcing that they are no longer requiring actors to wear corsets/stays, but framing it as the ultimate in feminist allyship against an Oppressive Historical Torture-Garment (and presumably typing their press releases one-handed, if you catch my drift), I have a few things to say:
1. I presume they will also be condemning Spanx, dieting, weight loss surgery, obsessive exercise, breast or pectoral or ab implants, Flat Tummy Tea, editing actors’ bodies in post, etc. since this is all about promoting healthy body image. ...right?
2. Okay, this one is not tongue-in-cheek: if a costume designer forces you to wear massively uncomfortable stays or corsets and tells you your discomfort is an inherent feature of that garment type, they are lying. All the articles on this cited reports from actresses saying they threw up because of Regency stays or couldn’t eat in Edwardian corsets. And while I’m sure some of that is giving interview audiences the sensationalism they want to hear, I believe them in general.
Someone needs to tell them that that’s not normal.
I have worn corsets and stays a lot in my life. I know people who wear them as everyday support garments. And neither I nor anyone I know has been seriously hindered in normal activities by them. There are even photos and videos of women from corset-intensive eras climbing glaciers, playing sports, having snowball fights, doing manual labor...living their lives
Sure, there have always been and will always be people who find corsets or stays inherently uncomfortable- that’s why it’s good to have many support garment options available for people who need them. And there have always been and will always be ill-made, ill-fitting, or extreme examples of the type- I’m not saying corsets are always The Most Comfortable Thing Ever For Everyone, because that’s not universally true of any garment.
But these production companies have been hurting actresses under the guise of “historical accuracy,” and this latest pronouncement is just another attempt to shift the blame.
Don’t let them get away with it.
EDIT: Apparently the Official nature of the source for this announcement is in question, but the gist of the post still stands, so I’m leaving it up. Will edit further if new developments arise.
#netflix#period drama#historical fiction#bbc#itv#(those are the other networks mentioned in the articles)#dress history#fashion history#historical costuming#historical fashion#corsets#stays#rant#diet mention#disordered eating mention
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When prophecy fails, election polling edition
In Canto 20 of Inferno, Dante confronts a pit where the sinners have had their heads twisted around backwards; they trudge, naked and weeping, through puddles of cooling tears. Virgil informs him that these are the fortunetellers, who tried to look forwards in life and now must look backwards forever.
In a completely unrelated subject, how about those election pollsters, huh?
Writing for The American Prospect, historian Rick Perlstein takes a hard look at characteristic failure modes of election polling and ponders their meaning:
https://prospect.org/politics/2024-09-25-polling-imperilment/
Apart from the pre-election polling chaos we're living through today, Perlstein's main inspiration is W Joseph Campbell 2024 University of California Press book, Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in US Presidential Elections:
https://www.ucpress.edu/books/lost-in-a-gallup/paper
In Campbell's telling, US election polling follows a century-old pattern: pollsters discover a new technique that works spookily well..for a while. While the new polling technique works, the pollster is hailed a supernaturally insightful fortune-teller.
In 1932, the Raleigh News and Observer was so impressed with polling by The Literary Digest that they proposed replacing elections with Digest's poll. The Digest's innovation was sending out 20,000,000 postcards advertising subscriptions and asking about presidential preferences. This worked perfectly for three elections – 1924, 1928, and 1932. But in 1936, the Digest blew it, calling the election for Alf Landon over FDR.
The Digest was dethroned, and new soothsayers were appointed: George Gallup, Elmo Roper and Archibald Crossler, who replaced the Digest's high-volume polling with a new kind of poll, one that sought out a representative slice of the population (as Perlstein says, this seems "so obvious in retrospect, you wonder how nobody thought of it before").
Representative polling worked so well that, three elections later, the pollsters declared that they could predict the election so well from early on that there was no reason to keep polling voters. They'd just declare the winner after the early polls were in and take the rest of the election off.
That was in 1948 – you know, 1948, the "Dewey Defeats Truman" election?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dewey_Defeats_Truman
If this sounds familiar, perhaps you – like Perlstein – are reminded of the 2016 election, where Fivethirtyeight and Nate Silver called the election for Hillary Clinton, and we took them at their word because they'd developed a new, incredibly accurate polling technique that had aced the previous two elections.
Silver's innovation? Aggregating state polls, weighting them by accuracy, and then producing a kind of meta-poll that combined their conclusions.
When Silver's prophecy failed in 2016, he offered the same excuse that Gallup gave in 1948: when voters are truly undecided, you can't predict how they'll vote, because they don't know how they'll vote.
Which, you know, okay, sure, that's right. But if you know that the election can't be called, if you know that undecided voters are feeding noise into the system whenever you poll them, then why report the polls at all? If all the polling fluctuation is undecided voters flopping around, not making up their mind, then the fact that candidate X is up 5 points with undecided means nothing.
As the finance industry disclaimer has it, "past performance is no guarantee of future results." But, as Perlstein says, "past performance is all a pollster has to go on." When Nate Silver weights his model in favor of a given poll, it's based on that poll's historical accuracy, not its future accuracy, because its future accuracy can't be determined until it's in the past. Like Dante's fortune-tellers, pollsters have to look backwards even as they march forwards.
Of course, it doesn't help that in some cases, Silver was just bad at assessing polls for accuracy, like when he put polls from the far-right "shock pollster" Trafalgar Group into the highly reliable bucket. Since 2016, Trafalgar has specialized in releasing garbage polls that announce that MAGA weirdos are way ahead, and because they always say that, they were far more accurate than the Clinton-predicting competition in 2016 when they proclaimed that Trump had it in the bag. For Silver, this warranted an "A-" on reliability, and that is partially to blame for how bad Silver's 2020 predictions were, when Republicans got pasted, but Trafalgar continued to predict a Democratic wipeout. Silver's methodology has a huge flaw: because Trafalgar's prediction history began in 2016, that single data-point made them look pretty darned reliable, even though their method was to just keep saying the same thing, over and over:
https://www.ettingermentum.news/p/the-art-of-losing-a-fivethirtyeight
Pollsters who get lucky with a temporarily reliable methodology inevitably get cocky and start cutting corners. After all, polling is expensive, so discontinuing the polls once you think you have an answer is a way to increase the enterprise's profitability. But, of course, pollsters can only make money so long as they're somewhat reliable, which leads to a whole subindustry of excuse-making when this cost-cutting bites them in the ass. In 1948, George Gallup blamed his failures on the audience, who failed to grasp the "difference between forecasting an election and picking the winner of a horse race." In 2016, Silver declared that he'd been right because he'd given Trump at 28.6% chance of winning.
This isn't an entirely worthless excuse. If you predict that Clinton's victory is 71.4% in the bag, you are saying that Trump might win. But pollsters want to eat their cake and have it, too: when they're right, they trumpet their predictive accuracy, without any of the caveats they are so insistent upon when they blow it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jDlo7YfUxc
There's always some excuse when it comes to the polls: in 1952, George Gallup called the election a tossup, but it went for Eisenhower in a landslide. He took out a full-page NYT ad, trumpeting that he was right, actually, because he wasn't accounting for undecided voters.
Polling is ultimately a form of empiricism-washing. The pollster may be counting up poll responses, but that doesn't make the prediction any less qualitative. Sure, the pollster counts responses, but who they ask, and what they do with those responses, is purely subjective. They're making guesses (or wishes) about which people are likely to vote, and what it means when someone tells you they're undecided. This is at least as much an ideological project as it is a scientific one:
https://prospect.org/blogs-and-newsletters/tap/2024-09-23-polling-whiplash/
But for all that polling is ideological, it's a very thin ideology. When it comes to serious political deliberation, questions like "who is likely to vote" and "what does 'undecided' mean" are a lot less important than, "what are the candidates promising to do?" and "what are the candidates likely to do?"
But – as Perlstein writes – the only kind of election journalism that is consistently, adequately funded is poll coverage. As a 1949 critic put it, this isn't the "pulse of democracy," it's "its baby talk."
Today, Tor Books publishes VIGILANT, a new, free LITTLE BROTHER story about creepy surveillance in distance education. It follows SPILL, another new, free LITTLE BROTHER novella about oil pipelines and indigenous landback.
If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this post to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:
https://pluralistic.net/2024/09/26/dewey-beats-truman/#past-performance-is-no-guarantee-of-future-results
#pluralistic#prognostication#polling#uspoli#elections#pollsters#fivethirtyeight#nate silver#george gallup#rick perlstein#history#past performance is no guarantee of future results#W Joseph Campbell#Lost in a Gallup
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18th Century Chemise & Breeches
A set of historically-accurate garments for your Male Sims!
Hi all! After what seems to be the longest time away from The Sims 4 (all thanks to Fallout 4, Baldur's Gate, and Dragon's Dogma 2), I'm back to playing my historical save and creating some Sims content. I made these pieces of cc literally years ago as a quick little personal creation, but I've decided that I actually like them and thought I'd share with you all!
You Get 4 Package Files:
The "un-tucked" version (the original mesh I created) is what would've been worn as the only layer of underwear in the 18th century, so men would be fully commando under their shirt. With this in mind, I designed the chemise to be worn without any bottoms, leaving your Sim's lower half nude.
If you're using any unmentionable adult mods in your game (cough cough 👀), you WILL see all parts underneath...no promises that there won't be some clipping should your sim hunks be a bit more...ahem...well-endowed...
You should be able to pair this un-tucked version with any pants you'd like in-game, however there will likely be clipping if not paired with the breeches I've made for them. The "tucked" version should work with pretty much everything though!
Located in the Tops category of CAS
3 swatches in different shades of "linen" (historically speaking, these would never be colored, so I did not provide any colorful swatches)
HQ compatible textures
BGC
These are a mesh edit of @historicalsimslife 's port of "Bardly Shirt" from TS3 - you do not need their mesh for mine to work, but what are you even doing if you don't have it already in game?
In the 18th Century, breeches were the next layer worn after your chemise (without any "underwear" beneath as we would wear today). Gentlemen would simply tuck the length of their chemise directly into the breeches. I tried to add a bit of accuracy and realism to them with a buttoned flap on the front for easy bathroom access and ties at the knees and back of the waist to keep things snug!
I had originally only created these in the same 3 linen swatches to match the shirts, but ultimately decided I liked them enough to pair with other options as well. So I ended up providing you many swatches for these!
2 versions: one with a bulge and one without
Located in the Bottoms category of CAS
70 swatches in my usual favorite Federal & Georgian palette
HQ compatible textures
BGC
Here ya go!!
#sims 4#sims 4 historical#sims 4 cas#s4cc#s4cc maxis match#sims 4 male cc#ts4cc maxis match#ts4 historical cc#ts4 male cc#sims 4 clothing cc
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I've got a kind-of crack theory about Ruby's mother...
Back in The Church on Ruby Road, Ruby is invited onto Long Lost Family, a genealogy TV program hosted by Davina McCall, with the hope of finding some information about her bio family. Unfortunately, they come up with nothing.
[ID: 6 gifs showing Ruby and Davina McCall talking to each other on the phone from The Church on Ruby Road. Davina apologies to Ruby, who tries to hide her upset at the news.
DAVINA: "There is no trace of your mum or dad. I'm sorry. It happens sometimes." RUBY: "No, that's fine... Thanks but, um, could you keep looking?" DAVINA: "No, there's nothing more we can do. If your parents aren't on some kind of database, we can't find them." RUBY: "Ok, um... isn't that unusual though? There's not a single trace anywhere? I mean... in the whole wide world, my mother's never left a blood sample or anythin'?"]
Now obviously, I know tracking down family is hard and, especially for orphans and adopted children, there's no gurantee that you'll be able to get the information you need. But I do find it odd there's seemingly "no trace" of Ruby's parents.
The section where I go on an odd tangent about genealogy
Speaking as someone who isn't a genealogist, but does enjoy researching family history in what little spare time they have... in my experience, close DNA matches aren't that hard to find. Especially if you're of white european descent, as Ruby is (presumably).
(It's generally harder for other ethnicities, as most research resources are white english/american focused. I know this is especially tricky for people like african-americans, where many of one's ancestors may have been enslaved. I've personally also found it tricky with Jewish communities as historically many of them used patronymic names prior to the 1800s, plus you have to account for immigration name changes, pogroms etc.)
For example, as someone who is white, with a mix of various british, mainland european, and ashkenazi ancestors, I actually have thousands of DNA matches, just from an autosomal test on Ancestry alone, let alone something like an mtDNA, xDNA or yDNA test:
[ID: Edited screenshot showing maternal and paternal DNA matches on my AncestryDNA profile. There are 16279 maternal matches and 9745 paternal matches.]
Obviously, due to the way family trees work, most of these are distant matches, however it does include plenty of close ones too, which I've been able to trace to real records and identify relationships with. Personally, my matches even already include many 1st and 2nd cousins, albeit usually a one or two degrees removed, especially as the userbase tends to swing older on these websites. This includes a few people close enough for me to have already known them from family functions and shared annecdotes. Meanwhile, where I did have blank spots, from immigrations, estranged family members, early deaths etc, I've been able to fill in a lot of information.
So what does it mean that there's "no trace" of Ruby's family?
Deliberate or not?
The big question I've had since The Church on Ruby Road is: just how untraceable is Ruby's family?
On one hand, I feel like if this was real life and professional TV genealogists were helping you, you'd get a bit more information than a quick phone call saying they've got zilch. If they're sharing nothing... do they literally have nothing?
On the other hand, this also feels like a writing shortcut. We don't really need 3 hours of Davina McCall sat with Ruby at a computer breaking down every question and theory about possible family members. Ultimately, this was probably just a way to quickly get some major exposition out there, plus throw in a Christmas celebrity cameo for casual viewers. The fact they only talk about Ruby's "parents" being in a DNA database, and no-one else, doesn't give me a lot of faith in the care for accuracy RTD took with this plot point tbh.
Indeed Davina does say 'it happens sometimes', which could indicate it's not as extreme as having zero close relatives...
...but Ruby also asks if it's unusual for there to be no trace of anything, which Davina doesn't answer. If we're asking that question, it sounds like things really could have turned up that blank.
It may not be easy for orphans and adoptees to find family, but I assume it must be quite rare to have zero possible leads? Especially if you're a younger person, and thus may have a good number of people of the right generation to know/remember your family members still alive. Worst case scenario, I can imagine having some leads, only for someone to be uncontactable, or lack the information that would be useful. That being said, maybe I'm being too optimistic, as someone who had the priviledge of never having as much difficulty.
The weird sci-fi parallel (TW: incest (kinda), intersexism)
This is where we get to my theorising. Because in a science fiction context, and specifically a time-travel one, there is one quite famous short story that has a protagonist with zero family connections: '—All You Zombies—' by Robert A Heinlein.
(Fun fact: "All You Zombies" is also the name of a planned Class Ongoing story, once I get the time to resume that.)
You may also be familiar with the movie adaptation: 'Predestination'. It's also seemingly the inspiration for all sorts of similar stories, from 'The Man Who Folded Himself' to Red Dwarf and Futurama.
You might see where i'm going from that last one...
(Again disclaimer: if you seek it out, that this story may be quite triggering. It also was written in 1959. While it's actually somewhat respectable of a trans (kind-of, you'll see what I mean - I'll generally use the pronouns used in the text below) protagonist, it includes sexism, intersexism bordering on medical horror, and selfcest/incest.)
In 1963 (funnily enough), a lonely, orphaned 18 year old woman named Jane has a sexual encounter with a man in a park which ends up leaving her pregnant. When complications arise, the doctor discovers during a successful caesarian she's actually intersex, with a form of ovotesticular syndrome, with her immature, partially developed organs "a mess". He removes the now damaged womb, ovaries etc and, without consent, 'rearranged things so that [they] can develop properly as a man".
A few weeks later, the baby is stolen from the hospital by a man.
Despite all this tragedy, they do decide to complete their transition, restarting life as a man. He struggles to find work, but eventually finds himself making a living selling fake confession stories to magazines as "the Unmarried Mother".
Years later In a bar, he tells his story to a Bartender. After it all, the Bartender reveals he's actually a time agent and offers the chance to see his baby's father again. He drops him off in 1963 to find the man.
Meanwhile, in 1964, the Bartender steals a baby from a hospital, and drops her off at an orphanage in 1945.
The Bartender returns to the Unmarried Mother a month later in 1963, just in time to see him leaving a lonely young woman he met with in a park...
"Now you know who he is", the Bartender says, "—and after you think it over you’ll know who you are... and if you think hard enough, you’ll figure out who the baby is... and who I am.” He drops the Unmarried Mother off in 1983, where he can be recruited by the Temporal Bureau.
The Bartender, Jane, the Unmarried Mother, the kidnapper, the Father, and the Baby are revealed to all be one person, a family tree onto themself. The perfect time agent, causally disconnected from the rest of humanity and thus safe from Faction Paradox - if they are truly human at all (possibly explaining their biological bi-sexuality).
Thus, literally, having no relatives.
NO, OF COURSE I don't think this is what's up with Ruby!
But...
A lot of people have suggested that the woman who drops off Ruby could be herself. Obviously this doesn't necessarily mean Ruby is her own mother - let alone her own intersex father, child, and recruiter too!
But the story did come to my mind watching the Christmas special, and I do think the less squicky side of it, the 'perfect time agent' angle is worth considering. Could Ruby really be causally/genetically disconnected from the rest of humanity? Could she literally have no close relatives?
Assuming her DNA is not taken from any other person, but some semi-random mix of genes, she really may not match with anyone. At most, she would have some distant false matches, who share very small portions of DNA with her just by statistical fluke.
"BUT", I hear you say, "Didn't she get rewritten by the literal butterfly effect in episode one? She must be connected to humanity!"
Yes she did. But you know else happened?
She was still there.
Seriously think about it. Time travel fiction often doesn't think about the full consequences of time being altered even slightly, especially for a gag, but think about it literally. If all of human history was changed and a whole new species, possibly descended from Silurians, became dominant on the planet...
... why would the Doctor still happen to be travelling with someone with a name beginning with 'Rub-' who looks like Millie Gibson? Remember her name comes from Ruby Road... so does 'Ruby Road' exist on Rubathon's Earth? The Church presumably doesn't, unless there's a lizard Jesus...
At the very least we can point to the Web of Time being particularly reinforced around Ruby for some reason, even after all the damage it's taken between Flux and now, letting Ruby persist into the new timeline. This is explicitly confirmed in the last episode, with the Doctor calling it a fixed point.
At worst, it may imply whatever 'designed' Ruby just needs her to meet the Doctor, no matter what the dominant species on Earth is.
Mind you, both of these do open questions about what happened in the timeline where Ruby was eaten by the Goblin King. Maybe targetting her after her birth left her temporally vulnerable? Or maybe it was a necessary event, to bring the Doctor to Ruby Road...
Add this to some other things we've seen this season:
In Space Babies, we're introduced to the concept of 'baby farms', allowing people to be loomed born without a parent.
We also know, at least, that Ruby registers as human to the TARDIS (though given Sutekh's influence, who knows how trustworthy that scan was now!).
In The Devil's Chord, Ruby is not erased by Maestro destroying humanity. Granted we can put this down to the Doctor/TARDIS, and how time travel effects people's biodata, but I think it could be a misdirect.
(Interestingly there was a very similar plotpoint in "City of the Daleks", the Eleventh Doctor adventure game, which saw the New Dalek Paradigm invading Earth in...1963. Unlike Ruby, Amy eventually actually does start to fade, needing a 'chronon blocker' to stabilise her. Hey remember how we just heard the word 'chronon' used a bunch in the show.)
In Boom, the Ambulance is entirely unable to find a next of kin for Ruby, despite seemingly having her in its records. This is a little hard to dissect, as you could take a lot of different interpretations away from it. At the very least, it suggests Ruby doesn't have any living descendents in the 51st century. Carla probably doesn't either (which makes sense with her not having any bio-kids, and Ruby seemingly being the only child she fully adopted rather than fostered?) But for its extensive records, it's notable it still couldn't find anyone after that, even presumably with access to Ruby's DNA like the genealogists had.
Everything in 73 Yards.
Between the snow falling in each episode, plus context in The Legend of Ruby Sunday, we know that Christmas Eve on Ruby Road, while fixed, is also uniquely vulnerable and 'raw'. With the woman's changing reactions to the Doctor, it's also flexible enough to change, somewhat.
Similarly, the possible connection between the woman who dropped Ruby off and the woman in 73 Yards, between her face not being visible and the CCTV camera being around 73 yards / 66.6 metres away. And if that woman really was Ruby, then maybe the parallels to All You Zombies may not be as insane as they sound.
#Doctor Who#DW Spoilers#Doctor Who Spoilers#Ruby Sunday#The Legend of Ruby Sunday#All You Zombies#DW Theory#DW Meta#long post
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you cannot convince me that thorfinn is a heterosexual character. hear me out.
1. historically speaking, vikings are famous for going at each other exactly like the greeks and romans did (pagan warriors loved that kinda thing and it was very much considered normal based on their mythology) it wouldn’t at all be unreasonable for him to be bisexual, when it comes to historical accuracy.
2. pete’s quote in halloween 2. he tells isaac there’s plenty of other fish in the sea, then follows up with “well not really, but there’s that one guy (jenkins) and idk what thor means when he mentions boat rules-“ which just refers right back to my first argument.
3. he backed up sasappis’ “i did it 43 times” claim, saying he “watched him many times as ghost.” both of their mannerisms after the fact imply that thorfinn was very much telling the truth in some capacity.
4. his two reactions to the dinosaur stripper. you cannot tell me those came from a 100% heterosexual man. (even if one was technically in isaac’s dream, but isaac has known him for awhile so)
5. jenkins telling nigel that isaac and thorfinn were together and nigel totally believing it and not at all thinking it was impossible or even close to a lie.
6. when he and flower were trying to find a third. he seemed more irritated about the situation overall, and didn’t seem phased about considering the other male ghosts as options. he didn’t seem all that opposed to pete “winning” either.
7. his reaction to the lumberjack tik tok. i’m not at all convinced he was that intrigued just from seeing wood being chopped.
8. when isaac and nigel have a brief fallout from nigel “liasioning” with jenkins that one christmas, thorfinn suggests isaac would get along with george the puritan (from the farnsbys) because they’re both gay. sasappis tells him his assumption that two guys would “get along” just because they’re both gay is wrong. when it pans back to thorfinn, he looks genuinely confused. to him, a viking, that’s a totally normal assumption to make, because that was closer to what his customs would’ve been.
9. not really a reason, i just think it’s funny. he once told pete he had “very shapely calves.”
(edit) 10. the official ghosts account reposting the clip mentioned in 2. captioning it: “the b in lgbt stands for boat.” as well as “to isaac, nigel, and anyone who observes ‘boat rules’ we hope you had a happy #pridemonth.”
#cbs ghosts#thorfinn ghosts#ghosts cbs#thorfinn#headcanon#this man is not straight#i will die on this hill#pun intended
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[Eng] Elle Italia - Daily Venezia: THE HISTORY IS US
Luca Marinelli is almost unrecognizable in the role of Mussolini in the series M. Son of the Century, directed by Joe Wright. Two greats together to tell one of the darkest and most criminal periods in History
Personal opinion: M. Son of the Century is one of the masterpieces of the 2024 Mostra. It's a shame it can't win, because it's a TV series, even if its director continues to call it a film. A seven-hour long film, which will be released in eight episodes on Sky and Now in the early months of 2025. It’s produced by Sky Studios and Lorenzo Mieli for The Apartment, a Fremantle group company, based on the novel by Antonio Scurati, written by Stefano Bises and Davide Serino. The director is Joe Wright, the protagonist is Luca Marinelli. It tells with historical accuracy the rise of Mussolini and our country's surrender to dictatorship.
Sensitive material, it reminds us that we invented fascism, and perhaps a foreign director, let's say, could have approached it with greater detachment, without our sense of guilt. Wright looks at me almost with pity, in a good way: “But I share that sense of guilt, I reject national borders, there are no nations: the similarities between us human beings are more than the differences, I feel as responsible as you Italians…I was very careful to tell the truth without being didactic, I tried to understand without sympathizing, maintaining a critical distance... Mussolini was fascinating, he seduced a nation and many others. If I hadn't shown that charm then people might have thought that Italians were all idiots. That balance was my main concern... On a more personal level it's a series about toxic masculinity, which is like nothing else in us, we have it inside us. We have to understand our responsibilities and turn our backs on them, so as not to end up morally bankrupt".
Every day it took Marinelli two hours of makeup and hair to get into Mussolini's shoes. "It was something I brought home with me," the actor confesses, "in the same shape as on the set: the 22 kilos I had gained, my hair cut as you see it in the scenes. The black lenses. were the things I could leave in the makeup van. Working with all the different departments was fascinating”.
It must not have been easy for him to shoot so convincingly in the fascist salute: “These are filthy and brutal things that the role required of me, but of course there is a big difference between what is considered right and what the role requires. I certainly did not take pleasure in carrying out certain actions or even in expressing myself in that way, but rather the opposite. What I had to face during the production of the project, as a convinced anti-fascist that I am, really cost me a lot. I did not come out of it intact”. But he was in the hands of an excellent director, a master in the cinematic transpositions of great books (Anna Karenina, Atonement, Pride and Prejudice). How does he approach them? "The film," Wright continues, "is what happens in my head while I read the book. I'm dyslexic and so when I read I think I see beyond the words, I create the scenes and I edit, zooming in on small details that interest me. M. is a mash up between Scarface, Man with a Movie Camera and 90s rave culture." Tom Rowlands' techno music creates the right atmosphere: "I didn't want anything classic, kids have to see it too, they have to understand the roots of fascism." Luca Marinelli is monumental in the role of the "duce." "He's one of the greatest actors in the world, along with Gary Oldman. But, like Gary Oldman, he doesn't know it."
#luca marinelli#tog cast#the old guard cast#venice film festival#Joe Wright#M Il figlio del secolo#tv series#serie tv#Venezia#Elle Italia#eng translation#mine
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Quick Unspooled Thread update:
Rough draft of chapter 20 complete wooooot!
Meaning starting ch 21 is tomorrow. The outline is in place, now need to rewatch episode for scenery, costumes, and some similar situations and some not so similar. Should be able to begin writing tomorrow.
@velvetcovered-brick will tell you while writing chapter 20 was a joy in many ways, it was also difficult at times because of two things:
1. I struggle with a certain character sometimes. Like, really struggle. And I was avoiding writing the scene with them in it because of it 😂 @velvetcovered-brick had to be like “we’re doing the thing! Stop avoiding the thing!” And i finally stopped avoiding it so we could construct it. Still needs work but good bones (but I’m still mad at this character)
2. I hate writing balls. This may shock some people cause there’s literally a ball in practically every damn episode. “They’re so pretty! So many characters!” Yeah it’s lovely to watch but to write???? Stab me with a red hot fork I’m done before I begin on those 🤣 plus I start twitching about historical accuracy BUT a lot of Bridgerton isn’t always strictly accurate. Which is fine! Bridgerton the show is really part fantasy but sometimes IT MAKES MY EYE TWITCH.
Anywaaaayyyyyyssss, I’m going to bed. We shall continue writing and editing, folks!
#bridgerton#bridgerton fanfiction#benedict bridgerton#benelope#fanfic#bridgerton fanfic#penedict#penelope featherington
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Genazo cheat sheet: Blink and you'll miss it edition
Another post where I try to list interesting details and tidbits about the movie, easter eggs, and such. I will try to follow the movie chronologically, but there might be some back-and-forth. Of course, this will include spoilers. If you're interested about Gegege no Nazo trivia and context, I wrote two more posts on the subject, here and here.
This movie is packed with little details that gives it insane rewatch value (I went to the theaters too many times...), either as references, easter eggs, or small touches that give not only historical accuracy, but also breathe more life into the characters and the world they inhabit. Let's go for another deep dive under the cut!
- Opening scene, present time
Yamada
His name and appearance evokes Salaryman Yamada, a character part of Mizuki Shigeru's star system. I won't go through all of them, but multiple characters in Genazo are part of that star system, like the section chief and the president of the blood bank, some of Osada's henchmen, etc. (here a star system refers to the use of a rotating cast of characters put into different roles through different stories but retaining key characteristics, either in design, personality, etc. Tezuka Osamu is known for this practice as well.) But specifically, Yamada reminds me of Joho-ya, "The informant", or "Hunter" (in Inka-subs), from Akuma-kun!
Ruins of Nagura village
As Kitaro's group and Yamada go through the village, you'll notice obvious items that played a part in the movie : the Sengoku-era armor, the hospital beds, Tokisada's ball form, etc. In the shot where Medama Oyaji says "The time has finally come, 70 years later...", Katsunori's car is in the foreground. Yamada stumbles upon the armor which I already mentioned, and is fairly obvious, but please notice the skull on the helmet: its left eye is worn-out! He then gets jump-scared by an Ichimatsu doll, which seems to have belonged to the little girl coughing in the train Mizuki and Gegero rode to Nagura village. Interestingly, though the patterns on the fabric are different, she shares the color of her kimono with Sayo, and both wear a bow in their hair. Finally, when Yamada points his flashlight at a window, a ghost appears for a frame or two, wearing a headdress making it looks like someone working for the Ryuga family. Which brings us to our next point... !
Hidden yokai and ghosts.
Mizuki Shigeru's daughter, Mizuki Etsuko, wrote the lyrics for Gegege no Kitaro 6th series' 3rd ending theme : "Mienkeredomo orundayo", "You can't see them, but they are here".
And indeed, if you look closely, or if you close one eye, you'll find that yokai have been present in the story way before Gegero made Mizuki notice them. Frankly, I don't know if I found them all, and what I can show you is mostly thanks to the joint effort of movie-goers who shared their findings online, but here are those I could spot and screenshot! (if you found more, Pleaaaaaase!!! Let me know!)
First, the ghost lady in the opening scene.
Mizuki casting two shadows in the blood bank office.
The tengu-like face appearing on a tree trunk as Mizuki enters Nagura village.
Kashabo, sitting on a tile as Mizuki enters Ryuga mansion grounds.
Probably Ikkenya no Yoju's paw, whom will appear again later in the movie, when Nezumi comes to give the diary to Mizuki in the storehouse.
The night after Tokimaro was appointed new family patriarch, Yuurei akago appear on the shelf in the back. (and these are actually pretty easy to spot, if you aren't so focused on Mizuki's cleavage. Yes. I know. Don't hide it.)
A soldier's helmet appearing next to Mizuki and disappearing a few frames after.
I read about more findings on social media, but it's all I collected myself for now!
Showa 31, Tokyo.
Or 1956.
Trash in the water, a cramped, shabby strict in the foreground, the blood bank, and in the background, factories releasing smoke. Far from the Tokyo that Tokiya and Sayo imagined, right?
As I mentioned in another post, the people waiting in the stairs came to sell their blood, and most of them probably do this for a living.
The celestial eye goldfish, or Choutengan, heavily bred in Japan and popular in art, are only found in captivity. They lack a dorsal fin, have limited vision, and can only be kept in aquarium on their own.
Train to Nagura Village
"...Tokisada is the man behind that success story." A script note I should have included in the previous post but I forgot, oops. Mizuki calls Tokisada "立志伝中", risshidenchu, conveying the idea that he is someone who worked harder than everyone in order to achieve great success.
Mizuki smokes "Peace" brand cigarettes. Its name was chosen with hope for the future after the war.
It seems Mizuki brought only one pack of cigarettes with him, as a pack of "Peace" contains 10 cigarettes, and he is seen smoking 10 times throughout the movie. The first time is in this scene, inside the train.
Tobacco's price in Japan has historically been exceptionally low, and at the time period Genazo takes place in a consequent percentage of people smoked - with a lack of awareness for safety, especially in closed spaces and around children, which was sadly not exclusive to Japan. Notice the girl holding the Ichimatsu doll and coughing : one of Osada's henchmen is sitting across from her, looking in her direction. Later in the movie, inside the underground factory, a smaller patient is on one of the hospital beds coughing, as a concerned patient turns to look at them. The doll is seen thrown in the trash, and of course, found again by Yamada in present time.
"Many people are following behind you." The silhouettes behind Mizuki are similar to the Japanese military uniform seen in his war flashbacks. So it's his war companions following him, and not the ghosts of enemies.
(a lot of points from the taxi drive to Mizuki's arrival in Naguramura I feel I already covered in other posts, so let's jump ahead a little bit.)
Reading Tokisada's will
Staff has cited The Inugami Family, movie adaptation of the novel The Inugami Curse as an inspiration for Gegege no Nazo. It's at the most explicit in this scene.
Tokimaro wears a sokutai outfit associated with noblemen of the Heian period. He also has teeth painted black, a practice called ohaguro, popular again between the Heian and Edo periods, mostly for cosmetic purpose ; and white makeup. Mizuki mentions how Tokimaro hasn't made public appearances in a long time due to poor health. Is the makeup for concealing his health...? In a previous post I mentioned how Toshiko, Hinoe and Otome share a motif reminiscent of the "inoshikachou" (boar, deer, butterfly) card combo in Hanafuda. Tokimaro's design is reminiscent of the Ono-no-Michikaze Hanafuda card.
Tokimaro mentions not being allowed to take a wife, surely not to dilute Tokisada's blood.
A maid places a zabuton cushion for Mizuki to sit on, just like everyone else in the room. However, during the entire scene, Mizuki keeps kneeling with his head low : Otome is already not pleased by his presence, but on top of that the maid placed the zabuton between two tatami. Tatami's edges are covered with cloth, and the fancier ones are embroidered with the family's emblem ; it would be considered rude to step and sit on it. He was also never invited to sit by any of the Ryuga, so he remains kneeling next to the zabuton.
Tokimaro's death, Gegero's arrival
"I really hate conflict, you know. How about it? Why don't we all take a bath together and relax ?" Kitaro's father's love for baths is well known as Medama Oyaji. In the Birth of Kitaro manga, he also mentions how the Ghost Tribe are peaceful people.
It's a rainy morning, and when Osada's men attempt to behead Gegero, Mizuki rushes outside shouting to stop them. He's only wearing socks in that scene, which is why he goes barefoot in the next scene when he's in the room where Gegero is locked in.
"This person has brought calamity upon the village..." In the shot where Osada says this line, he's drawn wearing a ring. I'm not sure if it's intentional or an animation mistake, but I think it's the only scene he's seen wearing it.
Night after the murder
Otome feels weak, and Osada doesn't just catch her as she falls, he tightens the embrace as if comforting her in a hug. In the following scene, it seems Hinoe got money from Otome, who is drinking red wine.
In the jail cell room, Mizuki is eating a classic meal of white rice, grilled fish, miso soup, and takuan (yellow pickled daikon radish). Gegero is eating a much lighter meal of brown rice and takuan sliced so thin it's see-through... In the previous scene where Osada, Otome and Hinoe are talking, Osada mentions that the room with the jail cell is in his quarters, which is why Tokiya was able to come in. Mizuki was also given a different yukata than when he was sleeping in the annex room of the Ryuga.
Gegero tells Mizuki that "Some people are not worth engaging in conversation." Indeed, he tried to warn Mizuki in the train that hell was awaiting him, but he didn't listen and came to Nagura Village anyways...
Asking Katsunori to let Gegero out
On the way, Mizuki passes by an old lady wearing a headdress and rubber gloves.
She's probably coming from or going to the underground factory where M is produced, and is also likely the ghost Yamada caught in his flashlight at the very beginning of the movie.
Hinoe is seen drinking alcohol as she peeks at Sayo and Mizuki from the window. In the room is a man in a futon, and a suitcase full of jewellery. The day before, in the scene where Otome, Osada and Hinoe were together, Hinoe was counting money she probably got from Otome, promising she wouldn't waste any of it. It seems she spent it in jewellery from the man in the futon, who is probably an outsider.
Hinoe is watching the scene from this balcony, and you can see two sets of tire tracks : the ones going straight is from Katsunori's car who just passed by. So the ones turning are probably from Hinoe's visitor, the jewellery seller, coming from outside the village. Had Mizuki paid a little bit more attention, he would have realized that Otome lied about the landslide at this point...!
In a previous post I talked about Tokimaro and Katsunori's placement in the succession scene, Katsunori sitting in front of a dragon, placed inside its maw.
This time, behind him are displays of his vanity : a replica of the "King" (osho) shogi piece, and peacock feathers matching the color of his cravat. He's drinking Grand Old Parr Scotch whiskey, contrasting with Otome drinking red wine a few scenes earlier.
First time on the forbidden island
In front of the well, "呪" (kashiri) "Curse" is written on the torii gate.
(lots of important things happening that I already covered in older posts, so let's flash forward again)
Back at Osada's house jail cell
Gegero is eating zaru soba. They are cold buckwheat noodles that you dip in tsuyu sauce before slurping. It's a great dish to have during the hot Japanese summer! There are two ozen (low dining table/trays) in front of him, one with the soba, and the other with an empty spoon and bowl. It seems that this time, Mizuki shared his dinner with Gegero.
Discussing next plans
"And as long as [the Kyokotsu] doesn't have a vessel in the village." Here, Gegero specifically uses the word yorishiro which I chose to replace with "vessel", but yorishiro is a word specific to shintoism. It refers to an item or body that can attract and host a kami (deity). You may have seen before shimenawa ropes tied around rocks or trees - they signify that a kami resides inside, making those yorishiro. It's possible that at this point in the story, Gegero might have already figured out Sayo.
After finishing his popsicle, Mizuki flips the stick and looks at it, then seems a little bit disappointed. Some popsicles have written on their stick either hazure (lose) or atari (win), on the end which is visible only after finishing the popsicle - had Mizuki gotten a win, he could have had another popsicle for free! Aww...
Sayo and Mizuki on the balcony
Sayo wears a fashionable, western dress. She may have gotten it from outside the village, possibly from Katsunori. From this point, she starts calling Mizuki "Mizuki-san" instead of "Mizuki-sama", closing the gap between them.
Moonlit talk in the graveyard
Throughout the movie, you can see many electric poles, but in this night scene, no lights are on at night except from Tsurubebi :
It's possible that most of the electricity is used in the underground factory.
"I saw it in the south..." When Mizuki mentions the south, he means Rabaul, New Guinea.
After lighting his cigarette with Tsurubebi, Mizuki notices he took his last one (the tenth) and crumple the empty cigarette pack in his pocket. It's why he shares it with Gegero instead of giving him a new one ; an interesting twist of fate right when Mizuki asks himself if he will have his own fateful encounter one day.
Gegero and his wife enjoyed "cream soda", which I left as is in the subs, but I realize that these are actually called soda floats in English, oops. Melon soda floats are heavily associated with the Showa era ; go to any vintage store, museum gift shop, etc and you'll find amongst retro goods something melon cream soda themed. (Pancakes and "pudding a la mode" are desserts with a similar iconic retro vibe) Cherries are also a known favourite of Medama Oyaji!
Their date spot is in Asakusa, Tokyo. You can see Sumida river in the background, with what I wrongly assumed to be Ryogoku bridge at first, but is actually Kototoi bridge. Starting from there you can find the exact spot : The rooftop amusement park "Sportsland", opened in 1931 in the Matsuya mall building. The mall remains nowadays, but not the park, sadly.
Picture source
flash forward to...
After Gegero's capture
In front of the shrine, when Otome reveals the role of women within the Ryuga family, Osada's shoulders slump, pained by the thought.
Inside the underground factory, you can see the same headdress and rubber gloves wearing old lady, grinning while at work.
As I stated earlier, we meet the coughing little girl from the train again here.
Sayo asks Mizuki, "Are you going to help that person from the Ghost tribe?" even though she has never met Gegero on screen - Either she was spying on Mizuki and Gegero, or she figured it out after reading Tokimaro's diary. "If I run away now, this guy will laugh at me." Mizuki says. Indeed, Gegero accepted to work with Mizuki on one condition : "Whatever you see, do not run away."
Bloodbath
Sayo's Kyokotsu releases more smaller Kyokotsu from its rounded stomach, as if giving birth.
During the bloodbath, one of the Urakido is not killed by Kyokotsu, but by one of his fellow man who accidentally slashed his throat while swinging his sword.
When Otome calls Osada for help, he shouts the usual okusan, "Madam!", followed by her name, "Otome!" in despair.
The anger Sayo feels for Mizuki is different than the grudge she bears towards the Ryuga and the villagers ; she chooses to strangle him with her own hands rather than through Kyokotsu. When Gegero said that he felt pity for Mizuki, Mizuki similarly went for Gegero's throat.
The bottom of the well
"By now, [Tokiya] must be bullied in hell in my place." "今頃 余に代わって 地獄で 獄卒どもに いじめられとるだろう" ima goro yo ni kawatte, jigoku de gokusotsudomo ni ijimeraretoru daro Literally, "by now, he must be bullied by the Gokusotsu in hell in my place." Gokusotsu are the guardians of Hell - they are seen in Gegege no Kitaro anime, working for Enma Daio. It's wrong of me to have omitted them in the subs, but I didn't know how to phrase it with proper length and timing. I'm sorry.
Mizuki climbing the stairs dragging the axe behind him mirrors Gegero's arrival in Nagura Village - the sound of the axe hitting the ground replacing the karan koron of Gegero's geta sandals.
Gegero places the chanchanko for protection on Mizuki's shoulders, but later Mizuki put it on Gegero's wife instead - Mizuki didn't hear Gegero says his "my friend, the future in which you live is something I wanted to see with my own eyes" line after all. At this point, Mizuki has nothing left to lose or look for himself, as highlighted in the shot where Gegero and his wife reunite, and Mizuki is lying as if dead on the foreground while Tokisada speaks of the bright future of Japan. He is ready to pay the price for his actions, even if it costs him his life.
When Gegero removes the seal on the pile of skulls, it's lodged in a skull's left eye socket.
Present time
Yamada promises that whatever happened in this village, he will "definitely write it down and pass it on." His article was printed in the pamphlet sold at the time of the movie's theatrical run.
Ok... phew! I think that's enough for now. If you've read this far...congratulations!! Unfortunately I may still have things to say in the future, but that post is way too long already. Thank you for reading! I hope this helped you notice a few things. Enjoy the movie!
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