#december 2020 to february 2021 calendar

[motogp-museum]

Top 5 Motogp ships on ao3 during the last decade

I filtered each year from Jan 1st to December 31st. No other fics are included in each year's rank, only the ones posted during that calendar year.

'New' means that they were either new to any year's top 10 on ao3, or new to this list. If I included the plus minus, that means it was not new to the top ten, it just hadn't made the top 5 yet.

2014

P1- Marc Marquez/ Dani Pedrosa

P2- Marc Marquez/ Valentino Rossi

P3- Alex Marquez/ Dani Pedrosa

P4- Jorge Lorenzo/ Original Female Character

P5- Dani Pedrosa/ Valentino Rossi

2015

P1- Marc Marquez/ Dani Pedrosa (=)

P2- Jorge Lorenzo/ Alex Marquez (New)

P3- Alex Marquez/ Original Female Character (New)

P4- Marc Marquez/ Valentino Rossi (-2)

P5- Dani Pedrosa/ Valentino Rossi (=)

2016

P1- Marc Marquez/ Dani Pedrosa (=)

P2- Daniil Kvyat/ Marc Marquez (New)

P3- Jorge Lorenzo/ Dani Pedrosa (+6)

P4- Jorge Lorenzo/ Marc Marquez (New +5)

P5- Jorge Lorenzo/ Valentino Rossi (New +3)

(Rosquez down 3 places to P7)

2017

P1- Marc Marquez/Dani Pedrosa (=)

P2- Luca Marini/Alex Marquez (New)

P3- Jorge Lorenzo/Dani Pedrosa (=)

P4- Jorge Lorenzo/Marc Marquez (=)

P5- Marc Marquez/Valentino Rossi (+2)

2018

P1- Marc Marquez/Valentino Rossi (+4)

P2- Marc Marquez/Dani Pedrosa (-1)

P3- Jorge Lorenzo/Dani Pedrosa (=)

P4- Luca Marini/Alex Marquez (-2)

P5- Jorge Lorenzo/Marc Marquez (-1)

2019

P1- Marc Marquez/Valentino Rossi (=)

P2- Jorge Lorenzo/Dani Pedrosa (+1)

P3- Luca Marini/Alex Marquez (+1)

P4- Jorge Lorenzo/Valentino Rossi (New +5)

P5- Marc Marquez/Dani Pedrosa (-3)

2020

P1- Fabio Quartararo/Maverick Viñales (New +6)

P2- Marc Marquez/Valentino Rossi (-1)

P3- Jorge Lorenzo/Dani Pedrosa (-1)

P4- Luca Marini/Alex Marquez (-1)

P5- Marc Marquez/Dani Pedrosa (=)

2021

P1- Marc Marquez/Valentino Rossi (+1)

P2- Fabio Quartararo/Maverick Viñales (-1)

P3- Marc Marquez/Dani Pedrosa (+2)

P4- Marc Marquez/Fabio Quartararo (New )

P5- Jorge Lorenzo/Dani Pedrosa (-2)

2022

P1- Marc Marquez/Fabio Quartararo (+3)

P2- Marc Marquez/Valentino Rossi (-1)

P3- Jorge Martin/Fabio Quartararo (New)

P4- Jorge Lorenzo/Dani Pedrosa (+1)

P5- Luca Marini/Alex Marquez (+1)

2023

P1- Marc Marquez/Valentino Rossi (+1)

P2- Marc Marquez/Fabio Quartararo (-1)

P3- Jorge Lorenzo/Dani Pedrosa (+1)

P4- Luca Marini/Alex Marquez (+1)

P5- Marco Bezzecchi/Celestino Vietti (New)

2024

P1- Marc Marquez/Valentino Rossi (=)

P2- Marco Bezzecchi/Celestino Vietti (+4)

P3- Francesco Bagnaia/Marc Marquez (New)

P4- Marco Bezzecchi/Marc Marquez (New)

P5- Jorge Lorenzo/Dani Pedrosa (-2)

Top 5 of all-time and their ao3 debut date

P1- Marc Marquez/Valentino Rossi (17 June 2014)

P2- Marc Marquez/Dani Pedrosa (26 December 2013)

P3- Jorge Lorenzo/Dani Pedrosa (21 July 2014)

P4- Luca Marini/Alex Marquez (15 February 2016)

P5- Fabio Quartararo/Maverick Viñales (13 November 2019)

Discussion:

Since there were so little motogp fics in the first few years, some of the ships in the top 5 were there because of a single writer. So it does not always reflect the fandom's opinions of the ships. For example, all of the Alex/Dani and Alex/Jorge fics were written by the same person (at the time. There are new ones).

It also shows how a ship being popular for a short time can have lasting effects on the all-time rank. Maverick/Fabio being an example of this as they are still in the top 5 overall, despite only being in the top 5 of the yearly rank twice.

[arofili]

Tolkien Fandom Event Calendar

Recently I’ve received some asks about events/weeks in the Tolkien fandom, so I thought I’d compile a list of those that I know about. This is not exhaustive, and dates are subject to change by the organizers of these events!

Other blogs you can check out are @tolkieneventsblog and @tolkienfandomevents, though I’m not sure how active those are. The @silmarillionwritersguild Discord also has a channel dedicated to signal boosts for all sorts of Tolkien-related & general fandom happenings, which is another excellent way to keep up with fandom goings-on.

Want to run your own event? Here’s some of my tips!

If your event is not on here and you’d like it to be, let me know and I can add it :) Note: I will only add events that have announced dates!

~

JANUARY Screw Yule My Slashy Valentine @myslashyvalentine — work time Lord of the Rings Secret Santa @lotr-sesa — reveals Thorin’s Spring Forge @thorinsspringforge — signups Second Age Week @secondageweek

FEBRUARY Hidden Paths My Slashy Valentine — reveals Thorin’s Spring Forge — claims Maedhros and Maglor Week @maedhrosmaglorweek

MARCH Back to Middle-earth Month @spring-into-arda Thorin’s Spring Forge — work time Fëanorian Week Fun with Fanon Fest Round 1 @funwithfanon

APRIL Tolkien Reverse Summer Bang @tolkienrsb — signups Silm Remix @tolkienremix — signups & assignments Thorin’s Spring Forge — reveals  Aralas Week @aralas-week Barduil Month @bi-widower-dads All of Arda is Autistic @all-of-arda-is-autistic F3: Focus on Friendship & Family, Phase I @spring-into-arda

MAY Tolkien Reverse Summer Bang — claims Silm Remix — reveals Aspec Arda Week @aspecardaweek Angbang Week @angbangweek Gondolin Week @gondolinweek F3: Focus on Friendship & Family, Phase II

JUNE Tolkien Reverse Summer Bang — work time Scribbles and Drabbles @fall-for-tolkien — signups Tolkien Ekphrasis Week @tolkienekphrasisweek F3: Focus on Friendship & Family, Phase III

JULY Tolkien Reverse Summer Bang — work time Scribbles and Drabbles — claims Tolkien Gen Week @tolkiengenweek LotR Ladies Week @lotrladiessource Tolkien Appreciation Week @tolkienweek Tolkien Latin American & Caribbean Week @tolkienlatamandcaribbeanweek

AUGUST Tolkien Reverse Summer Bang — deadlines Scribbles and Drabbles — art reveals Innumerable Stars Exchange @innumerable-stars — nominations & signups Tolkien of Colour Week @tolkienofcolourweek Silvergifting Week @silvergiftingweek Tolkien OC Week @tolkienocweek

SEPTEMBER Tolkien Reverse Summer Bang — reveals Scribbles and Drabbles — work time Innumerable Stars Exchange — signups & assignments Sindar Week @sindarweek Dor Cúarthol Week @dorcuartholweek Finwëan Ladies Week @finweanladiesweek

OCTOBER Innumerable Stars Exchange — reveals Scribbles and Drabbles — work time Half-elven Week @halfelvenweek

NOVEMBER Tolkien Secret Santa @officialtolkiensecretsanta — signups & assignments Scribbles and Drabbles — fic reveals Nolofinwean Week @nolofinweanweek

DECEMBER Tolkien Secret Santa — advent calendar & reveals My Slashy Valentine @myslashyvalentine — signups & assignments Lord of the Rings Secret Santa — claims Khazad Week @khazadweek

MONTHLY EVENTS: These events have prompts/challenges occurring every month. Teitho Contest Tolkien Short Fanworks Silmarillion Writers’ Guild @silmarillionwritersguild

(this list was last updated 5/4/23)

LEGACY EVENTS: These events used to occur, but have not happened within the last year. Arda Needs More Pride @ardaneedsmorepride (bimonthly; last run 2020) Kiliel Week @kilielweek (timing variable; last run 2021) @oneringnet monthly events (last run 2021) Atani Week @ataniweek (January; last run 2021) Legendarium Ladies April @legendariumladiesapril (April; last run 2020) Gates of Summer Exchange @gatesofsummerexchange (May-June, last run 2022) Tolkien South Asian Week, run by @arwenindomiel (June; last run 2022) Arafinwëan Week @arafinweanweek (July; last run 2019) Fëanturi Week (August; last run 2019; no official blog and the creator has deactivated) Imladrim Week @imladrimweek (November; last run 2019) Doriath Week @doriathweek (November; last run 2020) Tolkien Family Week @tolkienfamilyweek (November; last run 2021)

[backup-baby-backup]

List of Speak Now TV-related Easter eggs Taylor has dropped recently (just drop it already ffs)

NB: I'm only including hints that are obvious and don't require mental gymnastics. Your mileage might vary, of course.

27 February 2020: The Man music video is released, with the iconic graffitied wall showing Speak Now coming after Red.

26 October 2020: Taylor posts this TikTok.

I really think this is a really obvious hint, but nobody ever seems to talk about it... anyways notice how the colours of the garments she points at go purple > blue > green > black?

9 November 2021: Red (Taylor's Version) signed CDs go on sale. On her website, the price $20.10 is written in purple.

12 November 2021: "Red is about to be mine again, but it has always been ours."

13 December 2021: Taylor turns 32. Her AMA award for Speak Now can be seen in this photo she posts.

20 January 2021: Taylor is named 2022 Record Store Day Ambassador. The logo uses purple text and we lose our minds.

5 May 2022: Taylor Nation drops Speak Now (and 1989) merch for some reason.

Apparently, this was to show the Speak Now trademark was still being used, but I'm still putting it here.

21 October 2022: Anti-Hero music video released.

The koi fish guitar from the Speak Now World Tour makes an appearance.

Also, in the official YouTube video for the TSAntiHeroChallenge thing, she wears the purple dress from the Speak Now tour.

25 October 2022: Bejeweled music video released.

This day is the 12th anniversary of Speak Now.

Enchanted plays at the beginning.

Laura Dern says "Speak not".

Taylor presses the 3 button in the elevator, which is coloured purple.

The 13 button and the 13th indicator light (representing the album after Midnights) are also purple.

Taylor's hairpin says "SN".

Koi fish appears in the windows of the castle.

Long Live plays at the end.

1 November 2022: "I'm enchanted to announce my next tour..."

27 January 2023: Lavender Haze music video released.

The koi fish appears again.

29 January 2023: The official Taylor Swift 2024 calendar is shown on the publisher's website. It features photos from the Speak Now tour.

The cover picture is the same one used in the Eras Tour to represent the Speak Now era.

It will be available for purchase on July 20th.

17 March 2023: Taylor drops If This Was A Movie (TV), which was a deluxe track on Speak Now, and Safe & Sound and Eyes Open (TV), which were first performed live on the Speak Now tour.

9 April 2023: Photos from the set of a music video being filmed in Liverpool are leaked. The Speak Now tour flying balcony and piano can be seen.

13 April 2023: Taylor says that "recently one of my albums has been on my mind a lot" before performing Speak Now.

1 May 2023: Taylor posts this. The purple heart speaks for itself.

5 May 2023: WE WON. WE FINALLY WON.

[pagan-stitches]

Czech Calendar Customs Master Post

I’m an American who has always been fascinated with family history.  The most recent arrivals in my family from the old world were my Great-Grandparents who emigrated from Běhařovice, a small village in Southern Moravia,  Perhaps it is because they are my most recent connection to Europe that I’m pulled so strongly toward their traditions.  In this post I’ll provide links to my posts documenting my attempts to integrate Czech calendar customs into my practice, as well as other resources.  In 2023 I plan on doing more detailed articles and will add them to this article.  I am in no way an expert on the customs of Czechia, just a descendant attempting to connect with my ancestors.

From Groundhog Day to the Three Kings: Customs and Traditions of Villages in Znojmo (Southern Moravian district in Czechia that my great-grandparents were from) Machine translated by google

February/March/April 2023 Devotional Schedule

Hromnice

Hromnice is the holiday that takes place at Candlemas/Groundhog Day/Brigid’s Day (February 2nd)

Bearers of Folklore: One More Hour on Hromnice

Background

My 2022 Hromnice candle

2023 Hromnice candle

Blessing my Hromnice candle

Waking Up Perun

Drowning Morana/Smrtka (Around Vernal Equinox)

Background

Drowning Morana 2023

Drowning Morana 2022

Drowning Morana 2021

Drowning Morana 2020

Drowning Smrtka in my Great-Grandparent’s Village

Morana embroidery

Masopust (Carnival)

Background

Fat Thursday Dinner 2022

Kupala Night (Midsummer)

Midsummer 2022

Dozinky (Autumn Equinox)

Background

2022 Dozinky wreathe 1

2022 Dozinky wreath 2

Dušičky (All Soul’s Day)

Dusicky 2022

Koleda (Winter Solstice)

Background

St. Thomas’ Day

Koleda dinner 2022

Christmas and Advent

My St. Andrew’s Eve 2022 (November 30)

St. Andrew’s Eve (November 30)

My St. Barbara’s Day (December 4)

St. Barbara’s Day (December 4)

St. Nicholas’ Eve (December 5)

St. Ambrose Day (December 7)

Feast of the Immaculate Conception (December 8)

St. Lucy’s Day (December 13)

Christmas Eve Dinner Plans for 2022

Christmas Eve Dinner 2022/2023?

St. Stephen’s Day (December 26)

Vanilla crescents/ Vanilkové rohlíčky recipe

Walnut boat fortune telling 2022

Apple fortune telling 2022

Free paper cut out ethnographic nativity scene by painter Maria Fischerová-Kvěchová

My version of the cut out ethnographic nativity scene

Czech and Moravian Christmas Carols

2022 Czech inspired Christmas embroidery

Foods for the New Year

New Year’s Sweepers

New Year’s Lunch

Feast of the Three Kings

[gumnut-logic]

Hi! I’m getting into Thunderbirds fics and was thinking about writing some myself. I saw that you ran a challenge at one point and was wondering if there was any event calendar the fandom is using. Or are there any events at all? I wasn’t sure where to find any.

Hi and welcome to the Thunderfam! :D

There is no strict calendar, but a few events do recur at will.

At the moment we are in the middle of Fanart Appreciation Month, which has occurred in January the previous two years as well. The idea being to reblog lots of artworks to give our artists some recognition.

February has been Fab Five Feb in 2019 and 2020, but was missed last year. I haven't done the call out as to whether the Thunderfam want that one this year yet. It is usually a six week challenge with a focus on the five brothers plus another character which changes each year.

Some time in March/April there might be a Easter gift fic event.

Somewhere between April and August there is sometimes a random challenge event. There was nothing last year, but in previous years there has been Sensory Sunday , Earth & Sky Week and an Olympics challenge.

We also celebrate each of the Tracy boys' birthdays - Gordon 14 Feb, Alan 12 March, Scott 4 July (?), Virgil 15 August (always a big one for me :D ) and John in October. Other cast members also get birthday celebrations at various times of the year.

September and October are usually taken up by external challenges like Sicktember and Whumptober.

We did have a Thunderfam November event - Fluffember - but last year an external event was picked up so Fluffember didn't run, but it did run 2019, 2020 and 2021.

December is left to Tag Team Secret Santa.

There have also been random other events over the past few years and I have no doubt there were others before I joined the fandom in 2018. Due to the sudden rise of Covid in 2020 we started International Rescue & Relief, a fluff prompt challenge which is technically still going, but I haven't mentioned it for ages.

Plus there are always writing prompts or question lists flying around that get picked up by whoever wants to play.

Thunderfam, if I have forgotten anything, please chime in. It is late here and my brain is usually pretty unreliable.

Anyways, welcome, thank you for asking. I hope you have fun in thunderfam :D

Nutty

(so do you have a favourite Tracy brother? :D )

[duggardata]

Oh damn I'm also due Jan 1, I don't want my kid to share a birthday with a Duggar. How many days are left in the calendar that are not yet Duggar birthdays or anniversaries?

Info, Please!: How Many Calendar Days Don't Have A Duggar / Bates Birthday or Anniversary?

I'm pretty sure I've done a Post on this before, but not for a very long time! Anon, I know you only asked about the Duggars, but I'm going to include the Bateses too, since I know I'll get follow–up Asks!

There are quite a few "free" days, without a Duggar / Bates Birthday or Anniversary. (More than I would've expected!) Here is the full list of "Free" Days, as of November 17, 2022—

January 2—6, 8—11, 13—17, 19, 21, 22, 24, 25, 27, 29, 30

February 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 11—15, 18, 20—22, 24, 25, 28, 29

March 1, 2, 4—7, 10—24, 29, 31

April 1, 2, 4, 5, 7—9, 12—15, 17, 19, 20, 23—27, 29, 30

May 1, 3—11, 13, 15, 16, 20—22, 27—31

June 1, 3—6, 9—13, 16—19, 22, 25—29

July 1—3, 5, 6, 9—15, 17, 20, 22—26, 28, 30, 31

August 1, 3, 5, 7—10, 12—14, 16—20, 22, 23, 25—27, 30, 31

September 1—4, 6, 7, 9—11, 14, 16—20, 22—25, 27—30

October 2—4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12, 13, 15, 18—21, 24, 25, 27, 30

November 6, 10—14, 16—20, 23—25, 28—30

December 1, 2, 4—6, 9, 12, 13, 15, 17, 22—29

The Longest Period w/ No Birthday or Anniversary is March 10th—24th (15 Days), and the Longest "Streak" of Birthday / Anniversary Days is November 1st—6th (6 Days).

Birthdays / Anniversaries fall on the following Fixed–Date Holidays—New Year's Day, Earth Day, Independence Day. Fixed–Date Holidays without a Birthday / Anniversary include Groundhog Day, Valentine's Day, Leap Day, April Fool's Day, Juneteenth, Halloween, Veterans' Day, Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, and New Year's Eve.

All of the following days have Multiple Event On The Same Day—

3 Birthdays August 2; December 30

1 Anniversary, 2 Birthdays May 26

1 Anniversary, 1 Birthday October 5; November 2 and 5

2 Anniversaries May 24

2 Birthdays January 12; February 1, 10, 17, and 19; April 11; May 2 and 19; June 23; July 4, 7, 18, and 19; September 15; November 9 and 21

The Full Calendar of Birthdays / Anniversaries... After the jump.

January—

1 New Year's Day. Birthday—William Gilvin ("Gil") Bates Jr. (1965).

7 Birthday—Grace Annette ("Gracie") Duggar–Burnett (2020).

12 Birthdays—Jana Marie Duggar (1990) and John David ("J.D.") Duggar (1990).

18 Birthday—Finley Marie Paine–Bates (2022).

20 Birthday—Joseph Garrett ("Joe") Duggar (1995).

23 Birthday—Michaela Christan (Bates) Keilen (1990).

26 Birthday—Lexi Mae Webster–Bates (2017).

28 Birthday—Linda Jane ("Jane") (Hartsell) Bates [Gil's Mother] (1940).

31 Birthday—Layla Rae Stewart–Bates (2020).

February—

1 Birthdays—Trace Whitfield Bates (1997) and Jeb Colton Bates (2012).

2 Groundhog Day.

3 Birthday—James Lee ("J.L.") Duggar [Jim Bob's Father] (1936).

6 Birthday—Henry Wilberforce Seewald–Duggar (2017).

9 Birthday—Maci Jo Webster–Bates (2021).

10 Birthdays—Tiffany Lian (Espensen) Bates (1999) and Tyler Wayne Hutchins [Duggar] (2008).

14 Valentine's Day

16 Birthday—Robert Ellis ("Bobby") Smith III (1995).

17 Birthdays—Jackson Ezekiel Bates (2002) and Addallee Hope Bates (2006).

19 Birthdays—Ethel Mary (Hardin) Ruark [Michelle's Mother] (1927) and Brooklyn Praise Duggar–Caldwell (2021).

23 Birthday—Gideon Martyn Forsyth–Duggar (2018).

26 Anniversary—Justin + Claire (Spivey) Duggar (2021).

27 Birthday—Claire Yvonne (Spivey) Duggar (2001).

29 Leap Day.

Hailey James Clark–Bates's Projected DOB is February 23, 2023.

March—

3 Birthday—Joshua James Duggar (1988).

8 Birthday—Travis James Clark (2001).

9 Birthday—Derick Michael Dillard (1989).

25 Birthday—Kolter Gray Smith–Bates (2020).

26 Anniversary—Jer + Hannah (Wissmann) Duggar (2022).

27 Birthday—Zade Patrick Stewart–Bates (2022).

28 Birthday—Zoey Joy Webster–Bates (2018).

30 Birthday—Everly Hope Paine–Bates (2018).

Webster–Bates #5's Projected DOB is March 31, 2023. Baby C's Estimated DOB is in March 2022.

April—

1 April Fool's Day.

3 Anniversary—Jed + Katey (Nakatsu) Duggar (2021).

6 Birthday—Israel David Dillard–Duggar (2015).

10 Birthday—Lydia Johanna (Romeike) Bates (1998).

11 Birthdays—Carlin Brianne (Bates) Stewart (1998) and Allie Jane Webster–Bates (2015).

16 Birthday—Abbie Grace (Burnett) Duggar (1992).

18 Birthday—Charles Stephen ("Chad") Pain III (1987).

21 Birthday—Jason Michael Duggar (2000).

22 Earth Day. Birthday—Emerson Hope ("Emy") Wells (2003).

28 Birthday—Ellie Bridget Bates (2007).

May—

2 Birthdays—Erin Elise (Bates) Paine (1991) and Truett Oliver Duggar–Nakatsu (2022).

12 Anniversary—Lawson + Tiffany (Espensen) Bates (2022).

14 Birthday—Charles Stephen ("Carson") Paine–Bates IV (2015).

17 Birthday—Jill Michelle (Duggar) Dillard (1991).

18 Birthday—Lauren Milagro (Swanson) Duggar (1999).

19 Birthdays—Benjamin Michael Seewald (1995) and Warden Justice Bates (2003).

23 Birthday—Jackson Levi Duggar (2004).

24 Anniversarys—Bill + Jane (Hartsell) Bates (1964) [Gil's Parents] and Alyssa (Bates) + John Webster (2014).

25 Anniversary—Carlin (Bates) + Evan Stewart (2019).

26 Anniversary—Joy (Duggar) + Austin Forsyth (2017). Birthdays—Mary Leona (Lester) Duggar [Jim Bob's Mother] (1941) and Ivy Jane Seewald–Duggar (2019).

Forsyth–Duggar #3's Projected DOB is May 25, 2023. Duggar–Caldwell #4's Estimated DOB is in May 2022.

June—

2 Birthday—Marcus Anthony Duggar–Keller (2013).

7 Birthday—Jadon Carl Bates–Perkins (2021).

8 Birthday—Garrett David Duggar–Caldwell (2018).

14 Birthday—Hazel Sloane Balka–Bates (2021).

15 Birthday—Michael James Duggar–Keller (2011).

19 Juneteenth.

20 Birthday—Kaci Lynn Bates–Perkins (2016).

21 Anniversary—Jill (Duggar) + Derick Dillard (2014).

23 Birthdays—Anna Renee (Keller) Duggar (1988) and Hannah Marlys (Wissmann) Duggar (1995).

24 Birthday—Charlotte Raine Smith–Bates (2021).

30 Anniversary—Josiah + Lauren (Swanson) Duggar (2018).

July—

4 American Independence Day. Birthdays—William Gilvin ("Bill") Bates Sr. [Gil's Father] (1938) and Kelton Edward Balka (1995).

7 Birthday—James Andrew Duggar (2001) and Frederick Michael ("Freddy") Dillard–Duggar (2022).

8 Birthday—Samuel Scott Dillard–Duggar (2017).

16 Birthday—Meredith Grace Duggar–Keller (2015).

18 Birthdays—James Robert ("Jim Bob") Duggar (1965) and Fern Elliana Seewald–Duggar (2021).

19 Birthdays—Felicity Nicole Vuolo–Duggar (2018) and Willow Kristy Balka–Bates (2019).

21 Anniversary—Jim Bob + Michelle (Ruark) Duggar (1984).

27 Birthday—William Lawson ("Lawson") Bates (1992).

29 Birthday—Katelyn Koryn ("Katey") (Nakatsu) Duggar (1998).

August—

2 Birthdays—Jennifer Danielle Duggar (2007), Callie–Anna Rose Bates (2009), and Cambree Layne Smith–Bates (2022).

4 Birthday—Josie Kellyn (Bates) Balka (1999).

6 Birthday—Brooklyn Elise Paine–Bates (2016).

11 Birthday—Kendra Renee (Caldwell) Duggar (1998).

15 Anniversary—Michaela (Bates) + Brandon Keilen (2015).

21 Birthday—Evelyn Mae Forsyth–Duggar (2020).

24 Birthday—Evan Patrick Stewart (1995).

28 Birthday—Josiah Matthew ("Si") Duggar (1996).

29 Birthday—Kenneth Nathaniel ("Nathan") Bates (1993)

September—

5 Birthday—Jeremy Joseph Vuolo (1987).

8 Anniversary—Joe + Kendra (Caldwell) Duggar (2017).

12 Birthday—Mason Garrett Duggar–Keller (2017).

13 Birthday—Michelle Annette (Ruark) Duggar (1966).

15 Birthdays—Brandon Timothy Keilen (1989) and Judson Wyatt Bates (2010).

21 Birthday—Whitney Eileen (Perkins) Bates (1993).

26 Anniversary—Josh + Anna (Keller) Duggar (2008).

Charlie Duggar–Burnett was born in September 2022, but his Exact DOB is Unknown.

October—

1 Anniversary—Trace + Lydia (Romeike) Bates (2022).

5 Anniversary—Josie (Bates) + Kelton Balka (2018). Birthday—Katie Grace (Bates) Clark (2000).

8 Birthday—Mackynzie Renee Duggar–Keller (2009).

11 Birthday—Johannah Faith Duggar (2005).

14 Birthday—Esther Joy (Keyes) Bates (1997).

16 Birthday—Isaiah Courage Bates (2004).

17 Birthday—Kenna Joy Bates–Keyes (2022).

22 Anniversary—Nathan + Esther (Keyes) Bates (2021).

23 Birthday—Madyson Lily Duggar–Keller (2021).

26 Birthday—Kelly Jo (Callaham) Bates (1966).

28 Birthday—Joy–Anna (Duggar) Forsyth (1997).

29 Birthday—Bradley Gilvin Bates–Perkins (2014).

31 Halloween.

November—

1 Anniversary—Jessa (Duggar) + Ben Seewald (2014).

2 Anniversary—Erin (Bates) + Chad Paine (2013). Birthday—Addison Renee Duggar–Caldwell (2019).

3 Anniversary—John + Abbie (Burnett) Duggar (2018).

4 Birthday—Jessa Lauren (Duggar) Seewald (1992).

5 Anniversary—Jinger (Duggar) + Jeremy Vuolo (2016). Birthday—Spurgeon Elliot Seewald–Duggar (2015).

7 Birthday—Khloé Eileen Bates–Perkins (2019).

8 Birthday—Bella Milagro Duggar–Swanson (2019).

9 Birthdays—Alyssa Joy (Bates) Webster (1994) and Robert Ellis ("Kade") Smith–Bates IV (2018).

11 Veteran's Day.

15 Birthday—Justin Samuel Duggar (2002).

21 Birthdays—Kenneth Hubbard Callaham Sr. [Kelly Jo's Father] (1934) and John Elliott Webster (1989).

22 Birthday—Evangeline Jo Vuolo–Duggar (2020).

26 Birthday—Holland Grace Paine–Bates (2019).

27 Birthday—Maryella Hope Duggar–Keller (2019)

December—

3 Anniversary—Katie (Bates) + Travis Clark (2021).

7 Birthday—Garrett Floyde Ruark Sr. [Michelle's Father] (1924).

8 Birthday—Betty Jo (Smith) Callaham, etc. [Kelly Jo's Mother] (1938).

10 Birthday—Josie Brooklyn Duggar (2009).

11 Birthday—Austin Martyn Forsyth (1993)

14 Anniversary—Zach + Whitney (Perkins) Bates (2013).

16 Anniversary—Tori (Bates) + Bobby Smith (2017).

18 Birthday—Jordyn–Grace Makiya Duggar (2008).

19 Anniversary—Gil + Kelly Jo (Callaham) Bates (1987).

20 Birthday—Tori Layne (Bates) Smith (1995).

21 Birthday—Jinger Nicole (Duggar) Vuolo (1993).

24 Christmas Eve.

25 Christmas Day.

30 Birthday—Zachary Gilvin Bates (1988), Jedidiah Robert ("Jed") Duggar (1998), and Jeremiah Robert ("Jer") Duggar (1998).

31 New Year's Eve.

Unknown Anniversaries—Betty Jo (Smith) + Ken Callaham [Kelly Jo's Parents], Jimmy + Mary (Lester) Duggar [Jim Bob's Parents], and Garrett + Ethel (Hardin) Ruark [Michelle's Parents]

Unknown Birthdays—Baby C (AKA Duggar–Swanson #2), Duggar–Caldwell #4, and Charlie Duggar–Burnett

[wiliamjohn2]

How to calculate the Employee Retention Credit accurately?

In the evolving landscape of business and finance, understanding tax credits and incentives is crucial for organizations to optimize their fiscal responsibilities and ensure compliance. One such critical incentive is the Employee Retention Credit (ERC). This blog post will delve into the intricacies of calculating the Employee Retention Credit accurately, providing you with a comprehensive guide. Ignite HCM is dedicated to helping businesses navigate this complex terrain with ease and precision.

Understanding the Employee Retention Credit

The Employee Retention Credit is a refundable tax credit aimed at encouraging businesses to keep employees on their payroll during periods of economic distress. Initially introduced as part of the CARES Act in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the ERC has undergone several modifications, making it essential for businesses to stay updated on the latest criteria and calculation methods.

Eligibility Criteria

Before diving into the calculation process, it’s essential to understand the eligibility criteria for claiming the Employee Retention Credit:

Business Operations:

The business must have been fully or partially suspended due to governmental orders related to COVID-19 during the applicable calendar quarter.

Gross Receipts Decline:

Alternatively, businesses can qualify if they experience a significant decline in gross receipts. For 2020, this means a 50% decline compared to the same quarter in 2019. For 2021, the threshold was reduced to a 20% decline compared to the same quarter in 2019.

Qualified Wages:

The definition of qualified wages depends on the size of the employer. For employers with more than 100 full-time employees, qualified wages are those paid to employees not providing services due to suspension or decline in business. For smaller employers, all employee wages qualify, whether the employee is providing services or not.

Calculation of the Employee Retention Credit

The ERC is calculated as a percentage of qualified wages paid to employees during eligible periods. The specific percentages and wage caps vary depending on the year:

For 2020:

The credit is 50% of qualified wages paid between March 13, 2020, and December 31, 2020.

The maximum amount of qualified wages for each employee is $10,000, making the maximum credit per employee $5,000 for the year.

For 2021:

The credit is 70% of qualified wages paid between January 1, 2021, and September 30, 2021.

The maximum amount of qualified wages per employee per quarter is $10,000, making the maximum credit per employee $7,000 per quarter.

For businesses that started operations after February 15, 2020, and have annual gross receipts of less than $1 million, the credit can be claimed for wages paid through December 31, 2021, under the "Recovery Startup Business" provision.

Detailed Steps to Calculate the Employee Retention Credit

Determine Eligibility:

Assess if your business qualifies based on the criteria outlined above. This involves reviewing government orders, gross receipts, and employee status during the relevant periods.

Identify Qualified Wages:

Once eligibility is established, identify the wages that qualify for the credit. This includes health plan expenses that are properly allocable to the qualified wages.

Calculate the Credit:

For 2020: Multiply the qualified wages by 50%. Ensure that the total qualified wages do not exceed $10,000 per employee for the entire year.

For 2021: Multiply the qualified wages by 70%. Ensure that the total qualified wages do not exceed $10,000 per employee per quarter.

Claim the Credit:

To claim the Employee Retention Credit, businesses must report the total qualified wages and the related health insurance costs on their quarterly employment tax returns (Form 941 for most employers). If the credit exceeds the amount of payroll taxes owed, the excess can be refunded by filing Form 941-X, Adjusted Employer's Quarterly Federal Tax Return or Claim for Refund.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

To ensure accuracy in calculating the Employee Retention Credit, it’s vital to avoid common pitfalls:

Incorrect Eligibility Assessment:

Misinterpreting the eligibility criteria can lead to incorrect claims. Ensure you understand the specific requirements for suspension of operations and gross receipts decline.

Misclassification of Qualified Wages:

Distinguish between qualified and non-qualified wages accurately. Include only those wages paid during eligible periods and for eligible employees.

Failing to Consider Health Plan Expenses:

Health plan expenses allocable to qualified wages are part of the credit calculation. Overlooking these can result in a lower credit amount.

Improper Filing:

Ensure that the credit is claimed on the correct forms and within the stipulated time frames. Late or incorrect filings can delay refunds or lead to penalties.

Ignite HCM: Your Partner in Navigating ERC

Calculating the Employee Retention Credit accurately requires a deep understanding of the applicable laws and diligent record-keeping. Ignite HCM specializes in helping businesses optimize their HR and payroll processes, including the accurate calculation and claiming of tax credits like the ERC.

Expert Guidance:

Our team of experts stays abreast of the latest regulatory updates, ensuring that your business remains compliant and maximizes its credit potential.

Comprehensive Solutions:

Ignite HCM offers comprehensive payroll and HR solutions that streamline the process of identifying eligible wages and calculating the ERC. Our integrated systems ensure that all relevant data is accurately captured and reported.

Customized Support:

We understand that every business is unique. Our tailored support services ensure that your specific circumstances are considered in the calculation and claiming of the Employee Retention Credit.

Practical Example

To illustrate the calculation process, let’s consider a practical example:

Scenario: ABC Corp has 50 full-time employees. In Q2 2020, the company’s operations were partially suspended due to a state mandate. The gross receipts for Q2 2020 declined by 60% compared to Q2 2019. ABC Corp continued to pay wages to all employees during the suspension.

Step-by-Step Calculation:

Eligibility:

ABC Corp qualifies based on both suspension of operations and a significant decline in gross receipts.

Qualified Wages:

Since ABC Corp has less than 100 employees, all wages paid during the suspension period are qualified wages. Assume the total qualified wages paid in Q2 2020 is $400,000.

Calculate the Credit:

For Q2 2020, the credit is 50% of $400,000, which equals $200,000.

Claim the Credit:

ABC Corp reports the qualified wages and claims the $200,000 credit on its Q2 2020 Form 941.

For 2021, assume ABC Corp experienced a 25% decline in gross receipts in Q1 and Q2. The total qualified wages in each quarter were $500,000.

Step-by-Step Calculation:

Eligibility:

ABC Corp qualifies based on the gross receipts decline.

Qualified Wages:

Assume the total qualified wages in Q1 and Q2 2021 is $500,000 each quarter.

Calculate the Credit:

For Q1 2021, the credit is 70% of $500,000, which equals $350,000. The same calculation applies for Q2 2021.

Claim the Credit:

ABC Corp reports the qualified wages and claims $350,000 each for Q1 and Q2 2021 on its respective Form 941 filings.

Conclusion

Accurate calculation of the Employee Retention Credit can significantly impact your business’s financial health, providing much-needed relief during challenging times. Ignite HCM is here to support you through every step of the process, ensuring that you maximize your credit potential while maintaining compliance with all regulatory requirements.

For more information on how Ignite HCM can assist you in calculating and claiming the Employee Retention Credit, visit our website or contact our expert team today. Together, we can navigate the complexities of tax credits and optimize your business’s financial strategy.

Website : https://www.ignitehcm.com/solutions/employee-retention-credit

Phone : +1 301-674-8033

[wikiuntamed]

Top 5 @Wikipedia pages from yesterday: Monday, 29th January 2024

Welcome, välkommen, velkommen, ողջու՜յն (voġčuyn) 🤗 What were the top pages visited on @Wikipedia (29th January 2024) 🏆🌟🔥?

1️⃣: Griselda Blanco "Griselda Blanco Restrepo (February 15, 1943 – September 3, 2012), known as the Black Widow or Cocaine Godmother, was a Colombian drug lord who was prominent in the cocaine-based drug trade and underworld of Miami, US, during the 1970s through the early 2000s, and who has also been claimed by some to..."

Image by Metro Dade Police Department

2️⃣: List of Super Bowl champions "The Super Bowl is the annual American football game that determines the champion of the National Football League (NFL). The game culminates a season that begins in the previous calendar year, and is the conclusion of the NFL playoffs. The winner receives the Vince Lombardi Trophy. The contest is..."

Image by Jeno's

3️⃣: Brock Purdy "Brock Purdy (born December 27, 1999) is an American football quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers of the National Football League (NFL). He played college football for the Iowa State Cyclones and was selected by the 49ers with the final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, becoming that year's Mr...."

Image licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0? by Jar-Lar

4️⃣: Dan Campbell "Daniel Allen Campbell (born April 13, 1976) is an American football coach and a former tight end who has been the head coach for the Detroit Lions of the National Football League (NFL) since 2021. He served as the assistant head coach and tight ends coach for the New Orleans Saints from 2016 to 2020..."

Image licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0? by All-Pro Reels

5️⃣: Super Bowl LVIII "Super Bowl LVIII is the upcoming American football championship game of the National Football League (NFL) for the 2023 season. The game is scheduled to be played on February 11, 2024, at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada. A rematch of Super Bowl LIV, it will be played between the National..."

[limejuicer1862]

#NotAdvent Day Twelve. Enjoy the poetry of JL Huffman. For December go against the flow with me, instead of an Advent Calendar I am having an online Disappearance poetry calendar. Thinking of Extinction events, disappearing wildlife, disappearing homes due to war, thinking of the missing during Christmas. Twelth Day.

Aerial view of the Hatay Province in Turkey, on February 19, 2023. [State Department photo by Ron Przysucha/ Public Domain] JL Huffman Bios And Links JL Huffman, a retired Trauma Surgeon/ICU doctor, has published three books of poetry-Almanac: The Four Seasons (2020), Family Treasons (2021), and Voyage: Vista and Verse (2022). She is a 2023 Touchstone Award for Individual Poems Nominee, and…

[cssmonster]

Explore 40+ CSS Calendars

Welcome to CSS Monster, your go-to destination for exploring our latest collection of CSS calendars, thoughtfully curated for July 2023. This collection showcases the creativity and innovation of HTML and CSS with six new items hand-picked from various reputable resources like CodePen and GitHub. Each calendar code example in this collection is not only visually appealing but also functional, providing a powerful demonstration of what can be achieved with HTML and CSS. CSS calendars stand as indispensable tools for web developers and designers alike. They offer an elegant solution for tracking events, appointments, or deadlines within a website or application. The true beauty of CSS calendars lies in their adaptability; with the prowess of CSS, these calendars can be seamlessly styled to complement any aesthetic or theme, making them a versatile addition to any project. We invite you to delve into our collection of CSS calendars, where inspiration meets education. Whether you're a seasoned developer or just embarking on your coding journey, these code examples are crafted to be both inspiring and instructive. It's worth noting that all items in our collection are freely available for use. Feel empowered to incorporate them into your projects or leverage them as a starting point for crafting your own unique creations. Happy coding, and may your projects flourish with the dynamic functionality and aesthetic appeal of CSS calendars!

Author Shraddha October 19, 2022 Links Just Get The Demo Link How To Download - Article How To Download - Video Made with HTML (Pug) / CSS (SCSS) About a code CSS WINTER ANIMATION CALENDAR Compatible browsers:Chrome, Edge, Firefox, Opera, Safari Responsive:no Dependencies:-

Author Pepita K. February 17, 2022 Links Just Get The Demo Link How To Download - Article How To Download - Video Made with HTML / CSS (SCSS) About a code CALENDAR Compatible browsers:Chrome, Edge, Firefox, Opera, Safari Responsive:no Dependencies:-

Author Cătălin George Feștilă February 15, 2022 Links Just Get The Demo Link How To Download - Article How To Download - Video Made with HTML / CSS About a code DAYS Compatible browsers:Chrome, Edge, Firefox, Opera, Safari Responsive:yes Dependencies:-

Author Josiah Thomas February 14, 2022 Links Just Get The Demo Link How To Download - Article How To Download - Video Made with HTML / CSS About a code CALENDAR Compatible browsers:Chrome, Edge, Firefox, Opera, Safari Responsive:yes Dependencies:-

Author Una Kravets March 15, 2021 Links Just Get The Demo Link How To Download - Article How To Download - Video Made with HTML / CSS (SCSS) About a code CSS-ONLY CALENDAR LAYOUT Compatible browsers:Chrome, Edge, Firefox, Opera, Safari Responsive:no Dependencies:-

Author Håvard Brynjulfsen January 16, 2021 Links Just Get The Demo Link How To Download - Article How To Download - Video Made with HTML / CSS (SCSS) About a code DATEPICKER Compatible browsers:Chrome, Edge, Firefox, Opera, Safari Responsive:no Dependencies:-

Author Tutul July 4, 2020 Links Just Get The Demo Link How To Download - Article How To Download - Video Made with HTML / CSS (SCSS) About a code CALENDAR UI Compatible browsers:Chrome, Edge, Firefox, Opera, Safari Responsive:no Dependencies:-

Author Mark Eriksson June 3, 2020 Links Just Get The Demo Link How To Download - Article How To Download - Video Made with HTML / CSS (SCSS) About a code CALENDAR Compatible browsers:Chrome, Edge, Firefox, Opera, Safari Responsive:no Dependencies:-

Author mrnobody November 18, 2018 Links Just Get The Demo Link How To Download - Article How To Download - Video Made with HTML / CSS (SCSS) About a code CSS CALENDAR UI DESIGN Compatible browsers:Chrome, Edge, Firefox, Opera, Safari Responsive:yes Dependencies:-

Author Eliza Rajbhandari December 10, 2018 Links Just Get The Demo Link How To Download - Article How To Download - Video Made with HTML / CSS (SCSS) About a code CALENDAR MOBILE APP UI Compatible browsers:Chrome, Edge, Firefox, Opera, Safari Responsive:yes Dependencies:ionicons.css

Author Ahmed Nasr May 25, 2018 Links Just Get The Demo Link How To Download - Article How To Download - Video Made with HTML / CSS (SCSS) About a code CALENDAR PLAN - TASKS EVENTS APP

Author BradleyPJ April 22, 2018 Links Just Get The Demo Link How To Download - Article How To Download - Video Made with HTML / CSS (SCSS) About a code LIGHT & DARK CALENDAR

Author jpag October 25, 2017 Links Just Get The Demo Link How To Download - Article How To Download - Video Made with HTML About a code SIMPLE CALENDAR

Author yumeeeei August 6, 2017 Links Just Get The Demo Link How To Download - Article How To Download - Video Made with HTML About a code DUOTONE CALENDAR

Author Antoinette Janus June 12, 2017 Links Just Get The Demo Link How To Download - Article How To Download - Video Made with HTML (Pug) / CSS (SCSS) / JavaScript About a code FLUENT DESIGN: CALENDAR

Author Alex Cramer June 8, 2017 Links Just Get The Demo Link How To Download - Article How To Download - Video Made with HTML About a code CALENDAR UI

Author Tom May 15, 2017 Links Just Get The Demo Link How To Download - Article How To Download - Video Made with HTML About a code WINDOWS FLUENT DESIGN CALENDAR

Author Davide Francesco Merico May 11, 2017 Links Just Get The Demo Link How To Download - Article How To Download - Video Made with HTML/Pug About a code CALENDAR UI

Author Jocelyn April 11, 2017 Links Just Get The Demo Link How To Download - Article How To Download - Video Made with HTML About a code CALENDAR Read the full article

[polss]

DNC crumbles under Biden pressure to end Alabaster Filter; Predictably does it in most egregious, wrong headed fashion.

I am going to deal with issues of race here.  I am 50% white and 50% black, so I am going to right up against that third rail.

On December 2nd, the DNC presented a plan in response to Joe Biden’s letter calling for the end of the DNC’s Alabaster Filter --- starting the election in abnormally white states of Iowa and New Hampshire to erode the perceived viability of minority candidates.

Good Concept, horrific execution

At face value, their changes seem slightly arbitrary and tied to fanciful thought .... AND based on home cooking to thwart any primary challenges to the Democrat currently in power... Basically, what you would tend to expect from Democrats embedded in power.

The DNC rules panel proposal calls for the 2024 presidential calendar to open with South Carolina’s primary on February 3 (SC awarded 54 delegates in 2020), Nevada (36 delegates) and New Hampshire’s (34 delegates) contests on February 6, Georgia’s primary (105 delegates) on February 13 and Michigan’s (125 delegates) on February 27.

Nevada had been third in order and South Carolina fourth.  Georgia and Michigan were later in the process.

Early voting status gives some states a feeling of pride and ownership of the choice of candidate and really energizes voters within the state.

Clearly this is a massive rebuke of Iowa who had previously gone first and engaged in a caucus system in which a small minority of residents practiced arcane nonsense to generate a “winner”.   Not Democracy at all.

Iowa has also been firmly voting GOP for quite a while now.  The DNC finally acknowledged there was no sense in rewarding that and letting them arbitrarily award a fairly toothy stack of 41 delegates to the “whitest” candidate in the field, lol!

One can also see the hand of the DNC trying to reward Georgia voters and make Georgia a consistently more blue state as well as trying to pull Michigan back from it’s recent flirtation with the GOP.  

Michigan, Georgia, and South Carolina all have very large African American Democratic voting populations.

Will this even occur?

It seems apparent that some of these changes may not be possible due to legal challenges and/or Republican pushback.

Primary dates are set at the state level.  South Carolina allows separate GOP and DEM primaries on whatever date they chose.   Nevada passed a law in 2021 dumping their caucus for a primary and setting their date for February 6th, 2024, so that should be fine...Georgia’s Secretary of state is republican and he is charged with having the same date for both GOP and DEM primaries.

Both New Hampshire and Iowa have state laws that specify their order.   While it is abundantly clear that neither state legislature should have EVER had the power to dictate it’s sequence to the national party, it is there on the books.  New Hampshire’s clearly states they should be the first Primary on the schedule, suggesting they may move up.

There is no information on how the Democrats will address pushback.

Or if they see the problems their changes to prop up Biden 2024 inadvertently creates.

FROM “ALABASTER FILTER” TO “BLACK FILTER”

One could argue that the DNC has overcorrected and now they may be creating a Black Filter  (#DNCBLACKFILTER) where the odds are stacked in favor of black candidates (or grandfathered in white candidates like Bill Clinton and Joe Biden) over other white, minority, or Hispanic candidates ---  just as much as the previous system was stacked for white candidates.

More DNC home cooking...

Why is this relevant to look at?

Polling on election day 2022 showed that Democratic voters tended to be in favor of Joe Biden being primary challenged or not running in 2024. And this is not new.

August 2022

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3618861-56-percent-of-democrats-say-biden-shouldnt-run-for-reelection-in-2024-poll/

September 2022

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/23/politics/joe-biden-poll-reelection-2024/index.html

December 2022

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/09/majority-of-americans-dont-want-biden-or-trump-to-run-again-in-2024-cnbc-survey-shows.html

https://nypost.com/2022/12/14/just-30-of-voters-say-biden-should-run-for-reelection-poll/

The nut of all these polls is that for quite some time now the majority of Democratic voters  (~56-58%) and Independent voters (66%) have thought Biden should not run again.  Even with a historically abnormally good midterm for the Democrats, that sentiment has not changed.

There is a heck of a lot of smoke that regardless of how the call for changes with the DNC schedule was packaged for release to the public, this has a lot more to do with guaranteeing a Biden nomination than about addressing inherent racism built into the system.

If you look at how these contests stack up, it seems like this is designed to quickly steamroll any 2024 challengers ahead of Super Tuesday.

Black Democrats are generally more favorable of Biden than other Dems and voters. Biden would be the prohibitive favorite to win Michigan, Georgia, and South Carolina by wide margins.  New Hampshire is a regular blue state and as Biden is the president, he is likely to run away with that one too.  Only Nevada would really be at risk to a challenger.  Biden could easily have 300 delegates+ (like over 80% of the available delegates) entering Super Tuesday.

This looks a lot more like a power grab and a rubber stamp than a correction of a long standing problem.

And there is more.

THE WARNOCK PROBLEM

The trouble is an unelectable black candidate (not a viable black candidate) would probably be in a similar position. 

I am not talking about a Barack Obama. I mean a black candidate with real baggage who some black voters have deluded themselves thinking is a real presidential candidate that a non-black voter will support.

Raphael Warnock, lets say. 

I’ve heard his name laughably mentioned as a Presidential candidate because people look at how much money he has raised and that alone.  That is crack addled thinking. 

Warnock HAPPENS to be in a state that is roughly 49/49 with 2 percent voting libertarian that requires a 50% majority to win so both of his elections have had runoffs.  Both of his elections have turned out to be “control of the senate” elections that had people from all over the country donating money to him because of what his vote represents, not who he is.  THAT is what has allowed him to pull in huge money. 

I say laughably, because this is a guy who with a TON of money could only beat a poorly spoken black pro-life Republican who was publically outed for paying for an abortion and trying to push the same woman into a second abortion,  running for a white, racist, republican pro life constituency Georgia, by 1%.

He’s that BAD of a candidate.

This is a GLARING problem with the system as proposed.

Warnock would win Michigan, Georgia, and South Carolina because there are more black Dems in those states than white Dems and black Dems will generally support a known black candidate.  

He isn’t going to win Nevada or New Hampshire, but count the delegates....he is going to enter Super Tuesday as the presumptive candidate with probably at least a 100 delegate lead on the next candidate...and will get curb stomped in the  general election because he is wildly unacceptable to white and moderate voters..

YOU NEED MORE THAN NEVADA TO KEEP THE DNC ON THE RIGHT PATH

Look, Nevada is nicely mixed with a variety of racial groups, but that hardly seems to cut it as far as opening the doors of Democratic power to all races.  One can only scratch their head and wonder why a state or territory with a majority Hispanic population was not placed early to also give Democrats a chance to excite Hispanic voters and not push the results in a specific racial direction?

The idea should be that you give little markets and minority populations a chance to filter your pool of candidates.   

Is South Carolina going to pronounce a black candidate worthy of carrying the Democratic banner as they did in 2008 with Obama or are they going to say, “No, these black candidates suck” and vote for a white candidate like Joe Biden as they did in 2020.

That is what your early states should do. That should be their role in this process.  To perform the role South Carolina performed for the country in the last election.  “Who was the best candidate for primarily black South Carolina?  Was it a black candidate or would they go with a white candidate or candidate of another race with ties to the community?”  Clearly NONE of the field of black candidates polled well enough in South Carolina to hang on. SC effectively both offered a pathway for a black candidate to become a front runner while also vetting whether there was a black candidate in the race who was viable.

You have states that are similarly filled with hispanic or asian voters who can provide a similar vetting process for your candidates or a similar launchpad.

The goal should be to use these primaries to build a more healthy coalition between voters of all races.

The DNC should allow merit based minority candidates to have a springboard into being a frontrunner.  They should give an Asian candidate like Andrew Yang a chance to make a bid for widespread approval from all races in later states by potentially running a strong race in a couple states with Asians in it like Nevada early on in the process.... if those voters feel he is a strong candidate.

It should allow an AOC to campaign in a couple early states with a lot of Hispanic voters and be judged by them to see if she is deemed a candidate who could potentially carry a ticket.

And by the same token a state like New Hampshire should be able to make the case “this is the best candidate for white democratic voters” regardless of that candidate’s race.

(But I do agree screw GOP state Iowa with their caucus participants choosing “the least toxic” Dem. Everything should be about who you support, not who you can tolerate.)

THE SYSTEM, WHATEVER IT ENDS UP BEING, IS GOING TO BE LIKE A TRAIN ON RAILS DOWN A SPECIFIC PATH

The trouble is the path has historically been about choosing a white candidate prior to Super Tuesday.

It should be geared to allow a skilled politician of any race to stay in the race and build a national reputation for Super Tuesday.  Super Tuesday should then narrow the field to two or three candidates.

I think the changes need to acknowledge a large chunk of voters tend to vote with candidates they can identify with (and often are racially similar to the voter) and that the whole system, if we are honest, is designed to narrow the field to maybe 5 candidates still being “technically” alive on Super Tuesday but with 1-2 way ahead and only those leading candidates having the money to advertise on Super Tuesday.

5-6 states shouldn’t decide what 2 candidates the rest of the country gets.

The pre-Super Tuesday primaries should be about building 3-5 brands that prove to be versatile and last into real Super Tuesday contenders.   Super Tuesday will then cut the number to two or three that will play out over the course of the year in the rest of the races as the DNC would prefer to see happen.

It makes sense for the Dems to make the system designed to elevate their brands (making their candidates move valuable known brands in future races) rather than to tear them down.

SO WHAT CONTESTS SHOULD BE AHEAD OF SUPER TUESDAY?

Well, let’s start with Puerto Rico. It is right sized... Why is Puerto Rico with its 51 delegates not in the mix?  Large Hispanic Population.... a group the Democratic party struggles to attract....Like with Georgia and Michigan, there is a strong reason for the Dems to push that primary up the list.

Likewise Hawaii with it’s large Asian population would make a lot of sense very, very early in the process partnered with Nevada.  There are simply not a lot of states with large Asian populations that are small enough that they don’t overwhelm the system (looking at you California!).  Hawaii only generates 24 delegates.  You could bundle them with other Island contests.

One can argue that as it is, pushing Georgia and Michigan, a combined 230 delegates after a few small states is no different from throwing California with it’s staggering 415 delegates in before super Tuesday...and California has better attributes with for that role with strong black, white, Hispanic, and Asian Democratic populations....if you wanted to see a minority candidate emerge based on merit prior to super Tuesday, that would seem to be a better solution than adding Georgia and Michigan.

(But I think it makes a lot of sense to keep the big states back at Super Tuesday or later.)

My point is if you are going to push large delegate count Michigan and Georgia forward, you need to have more early primaries watering down their influence.

OK, You want to hear specifics...?

My two cents... If I were part of the rules board, I would totally go along with dumping Iowa as they aren’t ever going to vote Dem in the general election and Caucuses in general are a blight on Democracy.

But...If I were on the rules board, I would feverishly argue for the following as my pre-super Tuesday schedule.

Feb 3  South Carolina (54 delegates )

Feb 6  Nevada, New Hampshire (if it doesn’t move up to the 3rd, which may frankly be optimal) , & Vermont (36+24+16)

Feb 13 Hawaii, American Samoa, Democrats abroad,  Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, and the US virgin Islands  (24 + 6 + 13 + 7 +5 +7)

Feb 17 Puerto Rico (51)  District of Columbia (20)

Feb 20 Virginia (99) Colorado (67) 

Feb 24  Michigan (125) New Mexico (34)

Feb 27 Georgia (105) Washington (89)

Why so many races in rapid progression? Well because in the proposed setup there are no races between Georgia on the 13th and Michigan on the 27th.

I don’t want Georgia’s results --- which are going to be either a white male or a black winner to stay on the public’s minds for two weeks... any more than I want Hawaii’s which are probably going to be Asian candidate or a female.  

When the latest results sit for that long, they drive the narrative much, much more than they should.   An election done in this manner should be a marathon, not 95% of the voting populace being discouraged by the actions a single state took.

I don’t want early states unfairly pushing the narrative more than they should.  I don’t want an early state to have a staggering amount of influence over a state that votes after Super Tuesday.

Every state has a certain racial mix.  History has proven every state is going to be sympathetic to a candidate of their race.  Think of it as a willingness to hear a pitch.  If the pitch speaks to them, they probably earn those voters.  If the candidate seems non-Presidential, the voters move on to other races.  This mix gives pathways to White, Black, Asian, Female, and Independent leaning candidates.

I also do a lot of “balancing” so Georgia and Michigan are not rubber stamps for an unworthy black candidate to unfairly capture the race.  (Again, I am not talking about a skilled black candidate like President Obama who could speak compellingly to all races, I am talking about the Reverend Warnocks of the party who are not going to win a national campaign.)

I think it makes sense to structure the race so candidates CAN chose to focus on one state instead of another.  I know that might rankle some, but really isn’t that a better scenario than forcing candidates who might have a legit shot at winning the nomination (cough Joe Biden) into wasting money campaigning fruitlessly in a state like Iowa and then letting the results be the status quo for up to two weeks, playing head games with voters in future states?

Give a pathway so skilled politicians can work their way into Super Tuesday conversations by showing they know how to utilize their resources.  Don’t blow the wheels off their campaign by making them spend a ton of time in a state where the voters are not receptive to their message.

I also chose states that diminish the power the DNC elite have to shrink the candidate pool.  Washington for example is on my list. California was too big, but Washington is just the right size as the second biggest state on the Pacific coast.  

The Pacific Coast should absolutely be involved in the “vetting” round, just as the East Coast is with New Hampshire now.  Washington is very indy minded as evidenced by their strong support for Bernie even when Joe Biden had all the momentum in 2022.

Let’s play it out

Let’s say Joe Biden gets sick and decides not to run in 2024.  The Dems look at Kamala Harris and quickly realize she is still the same candidate who turned an 18% share of the democratic race and all the money you could want into a 3% share in less than a month.  For who she is today, she is unelectable.  Kind of the Dan Quayle of Democratic VPs.

A host of potentially electable and equally unelectable candidates enter the race.  Mayor Pete, Reverend Warnock, Tulsi Gabbard, Colorado Governor Jared Polis, Beto O’Rourke, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Kloubachar, and one of the interchangeable Castro Brothers of Texas.

Under the current setup, Warnock probably wins decisively in SC, MI, and GA.  Warren and Kloubachar pretty much split the vote in New Hampshire. Polis probably wins Nevada over a very split field.

Warnock might capture 200 of the 284 delegates in those three states and be absolutely shut out in the rest of the states, but your next leading candidate might be Warren with maybe 50 delegates....

That is a recipe for an unenthused Democratic electorate and a shit sandwich on election day.

Now look at it with a bigger runway to Super Tuesday.

Feb 3 - SC - Warnock wins SC (39), Warren second (15).

Feb 6 - NH - Warren builds off SC and wins NH Strongly (18), Kloubachar (6).

VT-  Warren wins more independent minded VT by a lesser margin, but the voters largely opt out of the field selecting instead the two candidates who are not there to award delegates.... Gabbard and O’Rourke.  Warren (8), Gabbard (5), O’Rourke (3)

NV - Tulsi Gabbard, having run previously, knew she wasn’t going to win SC or NH, so she doubled down on NV ignoring the other two and with promising Hawaii looming, wins the state handily over Beto who had the same strategy. Mayor Pete and Governor Polis who competed in New Hampshire as well would find they split the vote. Gabbard (24), Beto (9),  Polis (2) Mayor Pete (1)

Feb 10 - HI & Islands - Gabbard wins Hawaii and most of the island vote handily.  Warren also plays off momentum to finish second. Polis again shows.  Gabbard (32) Warren (15), Polis (2)

DA - Warren takes the “democrats abroad” vote with Gabbard in second. Warren (8) Gabbard (5).

(I know... This is not the kind of results you would expect because we are used to a candidate like Gabbard being denied media time and being actively taken down by the DNC as their followings are largely indy and GOP voters instead of allowed to rise based on her merit.  Either a Gabbard or an Andrew Yang could pull off these results in this structure where they are not being ostracized by the DNC for rudely expanding the party.)

Tally: At this point its Gabbard 66, Warren 64, Warnock 39, Beto 12, Kloubachar 6, Polis 4, Mayor Pete 1.  

Narrative:  It has been 10 days since Warnock has won anything and Gabbard and Warren are looking presidential. A good African American candidate would have added to their SC win, but Warnock would not be able to and it would end up eating away at his support in future states.  Warnock is politically smart enough to realize he has little primary support in states with no black population so he would likely be campaigning in the next market with a sizeable black population ---- DC.)

Feb 13 - With options with different characteristics, candidates would chose the more likely profitable race.

Puerto Rico - After his strong showing in Nevada, Beto would go all in after Puerto Rico.  His rival, random Castro brother, would go all in as well, likely trying to run a negative campaign against Beto.  The timeframe would not allow that strategy to succeed.  Puerto Ricans would gravitate to the Spanish speaking, optimistic O'Rourke. The comely Gabbard would ride in on her momentum and impress the residents with her charm, beauty, and presidential stature.  (You can dislike me acknowledging it, but those characteristics do sway a large chunk of male voters.) Those voters that Castro turned off Beto would largely go to Gabbard.  Beto 42, Gabbard 7, Castro 2

DC - The much more dynamic Warren would descend on DC on a wave of momentum and erase much of Warnock’s softening support. Her deeper local ties would carry the day.  Polis would capture a token bit of the gay vote. Warren 10, Warnock 7, Polis 3

Tally:  Warren 74, Gabbard 73,  Beto 54, Warnock 46, Polis 7, Kloubachar 6, Castro 2, Mayor Pete 1. 

Narrative:  At this point, Governor Polis has proved himself to be “a better Mayor Pete”.  The money is drying up for Kloubachar, Castro, and Mayor Pete.  They all drop out. Beto has proven that he can win a race and can capture the Hispanic voter. Gabbard and Warren are surging, Warnock is floundering, and Beto...is interesting.

Feb 17 - With a choice between two distinct regions, the front runners again chose to narrow focus and chose one state.

Virginia - Fresh off her win in DC, Warren slides her operation into neighboring Virginia. She continues to eat into Warnock’s support, but she is surprised to see a candidate eating into her support ---  O’Rourke pulling double duty with a fresh influx of money carrying his message of optimism exclusively in TV ads in the DC market.  He wins a little more than he should just over sexism. (Again, something that happens.) Polis finishes fourth.  Warren 48, Warnock 25, O’Rourke 18, Polis 6, Gabbard 2

Colorado governor Polis wins his state, but the margin over the red hot candidates Gabbard and O’Rourke makes it a pyric victory. Gabbard knows she doesn’t have a lot of allies in DC so she goes hard after Colorado.  O’Rourke need to prove he can win white votes so he also goes hard after Colorado.  Polis 21, Gabbard 18, O’Rourke 15, Warnock 6, Warren 6

Tally:  Warren 128, Gabbard 93, Beto 87, Warnock 77, Polis 34,

Narrative: It is becoming increasingly clear that Warnock has nothing beyond the black vote and he is rapidly losing that. Polis likely drops out knowing that he is already too far behind to pull the money for a valid Super Tuesday push.

February 24th - Tulsi realizes she can’t spend another cycle conceding the bigger prize to Warren. She pushes her chips all on Michigan.  Her longstanding reputation among Fox News watchers serves her well in the state. She is able to paint Warren as “out of touch” and “overly liberal” and Warnock as “ineffective” and she captures a big victory capturing the majority of both white and black voters in the state.  In a testy showdown between the front runners, Warnock is lost in the crowd and O’Rourke’s optimistic media push pays some dividends. Gabbard (55), Warren (35), Warnock (20), O’Rourke (15).

O’Rourke alone choses to personally campaign in New Mexico with Polis running out of money.  As an EL Paso based candidate, he is a very familar brand in southern New Mexico and along the Texas border.  He wins big selling the message that he care about “the forgotten Americans”.  O’Rourke (27), Warren (4), Gabbard (3)

Tally:  Warren 167, Gabbard 151, Beto 130, Warnock 97

Narrative:  Warnock is dead in the water.  He seems to be angling for a VP spot, but doesn’t seem to merit it over the other three. Most think it is a two candidate race, but Beto is widely viewed by campaign analysts as “clearly finding his feet”.

February 27: Georgia.  On his home turf Warnock is finally able to scrape out a win, but it becomes very obvious that Warnock is less popular than the DNC brand in general and all four candidates prove capable of charming a southern voter. O’Rourke is once more the beneficiary of anti-female voting. Warnock 42, O’Rourke 25, Warren 20, Gabbard 19.

Washington.  Indy minded Washington responds to Gabbard’s vision of a radically different, less militant America and Beto’s vision of a warmer country. Warren still does OK, but generally only with the older crowd. Warnock choses to only campaign in Georgia. Gabbard 35, Beto 30, Warren 22, Warnock 2

Tally:  Warren 209, Gabbard 205, Beto 185, Warnock 141

Narrative:  No one is running away with this race. Every potential DEM voter is engaged.  No one feels swindled.  Debates will continue and be very compelling long past Super Tuesday.  It seems fairly likely one of the two women (the white insider or the Asian outsider) will win and they will have a choice between a candidate with the support of the rest of the female voting block, one with black support, or one with Hispanic and male support.

And that is just one way it could work out.  If you have candidates that appeal widely beyond their racial origins like President Obama, one or two fewer candidates may be in the running on Super Tuesday.

Doesn’t that seem like a much healthier position for the DNC every election cycle than letting the Warnocks of the planet simply inherit the earth because they happen to be black?