#covid misinformation

[narse-tantalus]

Since I just saw a post on the same blog about countering the spread of misinformation using the SIFT method I'm going to apply it here.

Stop

Is this post provoking an emotional response? Yes

Is it trying to? Also yes.

What do I already know about the source? Twitter screenshots on Tumblr are unreliable. I know nothing about the linked pmc19.com but it doesn't look like a government or university website url.

Investigate (The Source)

What can you find about the author/website creators?

the link to pmc19.com/data resolves, and that website does seem to be the source of these claims, although the current numbers are slightly off those reported in the tweets, likely because we're a week later.

pmc19.com links to a PDF with "Background on Dr. Hoerger and the PMC". There they discuss how Dr. Hoerger (who claims copyright of the webpage at the bottom) is trained in clinical psychology, has taught and was doing an MBA in 2019 on strategic management. It claims he's "an expert in personality, emotions, and affective decision science..." and mentions he did a masters degree wich involved a lot of stuff... And also epidemiology.

The PMC is apparently "The Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative" with unnamed members who have " led many projects to keep people safer during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic." and "The PMC dashboard is cited in grant applications, including at least two grants already funded. It has been cited by trusted organizations like the People’s CDC, news outlets, and scientific journals, including several papers published in JAMA journals."

Which really sounds like they think I should trust them at least as much as I trust people who write grants, and/or "The People's CDC" -- this makes me think they are unlikely to be an accurate source.

Here's Dr. Hoerger's bio at Louisiana Cancer research center:

https://www.louisianacancercenter.org/people/michael-hoerger-phd

It says "Dr. Hoerger conducts psychosocial research to reduce the emotional and physical burden of serious illnesses. Dr. Hoerger is an international expert in psychosocial oncology as well as pandemic mitigation." And the lists a bunch of psychology stuff. Literally never mentions pandemics again. If he's an "international expert in pandemic mitigation" a) I'd expect him to work somewhere other than a Cancer center b) I'd expect his bio to mention his pandemic mitigation work. Maybe he's new to all this pandemic stuff? He certainly doesn't claim to be an epidemiologist on the pmc website, just to have worked on a project that involves it.

When I google "The Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative" the second result is this webpage which questions their methodology and suggests that their model is incapable of making accurate predictions -- claiming it's always going to be biased towards whatever happened on the same dates last year -- both low and high. (I'm summarizing and interpreting a huge amount here,so read it yourself, and the source is just a blog post so not intrinsically more credible...) But it is note worthy that the main 3rd party discussion of this organization is someone questioning the utility of their predictions.

https://buttondown.com/abbycartus/archive/we-need-to-talk-about-the-pandemic-mitigation/

What is their mission? Do they have vested interests? Would their assessment be biased?

Their mission seems to be to "track" or predict cases of covid -- but like better than the real CDC and epidemiologists. Presumably this is born out of concern for immunocompromised individuals, or boredom, or needing a project for a Strategic Management MBA, or distrust of Official Sources.

They appear to have a vested interest in pandemic mitigation, and therefore alarmism and possibly in not agreeing with official sources. Their assessment may well be biased!

Do they have authority in the Area?

No. They mention precisely 0 epidemiologists working for or with them. I don't see a reason to trust their models more than my physics grad student friends who made pandemic models on a lark in 2020.

Find Better Coverage

The official CDC (Centers for Disease Control) webpage on Covid data is here:

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home

It indicates lower numbers than last year for everything they track, numbers that are kind of ticking up in recent weeks, but numbers that are forecast (if I'm reading that right) to reach a smaller peak than in prior years.

Notably the CDC is not making any directly comparable claims about number of people infected or infectious. Or how many might be infected next month. I believe this is because these are fundamentally unknowable from the data they have, and that speculating on them would be irresponsible for public communicators of science. Sure, one could create models that predict those numbers, but publishing the results to the public without context on the uncertainties of the models would be irresponsible since people might make life or death decisions like wearing a mask or getting a vaccine based on those bad predictions. Or they might just rage at people online who disagree with them. Idk, I'm not a science communicator.

Don't trust the CDC? Tough. The New York Times ended their own covid tracking in 2023 saying:

After more than three years of daily reporting of coronavirus data in the United States, The New York Times is ending its Covid-19 data-gathering operation. The Times will continue to publish virus data from the federal government weekly on a new set of tracking pages, but this page will no longer be updated.

This change was spurred by the declining availability of virus data from state and local health officials. Since few states report more than once a week (and some no longer report data to the public at all), the weekly data reports from the C.D.C. have become the most reliable source of information on the virus’s spread.

There new webpage is here and it was last updated in March 2024, it says:

These Covid tracking pages are no longer being updated. Get the latest information from the Centers for Disease Control, or find archived data from The Times’s three year reporting effort here.

John's Hopkins University has this to say:

On March 10, 2023, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center ceased collecting and reporting of global COVID-19 data. For updated cases, deaths, and vaccine data please visit the following sources: Global: World Health Organization (WHO) U.S.: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

So yeah, reputable sources have stopped caring and link you to the CDC as the place to get your info.

Trace Claims, Quotes, and Media to their Original Context

The pmc19.com website does appear to be the original context for these claims. Thank you OP for linking that.

My Verdict:

These claims are misinformation. Specifically they claim numbers that are based on a model that was not created by subject matter experts, that disagrees with the trends reported by the CDC and it's epidemiologists. Either government employed epidemiologists are wrong and no university epidemiologists want to call them out on it... Or the PMC is wrong. Since they aren't epidemiologists... They're probably wrong. Moreover: If you don't trust the CDC you shouldn't The PMC because in their technical apendix they claim to use CDC data to make their projections. The only way the PMC could be right is if all other epidemiologists are wrong about the COVID pandemic and how to interpret wastewater and hospitalization data.

The PMC and Dr. Hoerger are engaging in academic sounding BS. They have incentives to be alarmist and fear monger, and don't seem to care or understand that they're using a model that probably doesn't have predictive value.

Data source: https://pmc19.com/data/

[eag1969tumbler-blog]

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[uboat53]

First lawyers, now doctors. Is it just me or does it seem like professional licensing boards are doing a particularly poor job of actually holding people to the standards of their professions?

[accidental-memory]

This is Vandana Shiva. What she is saying in this video is generally correct. Also? She is a liar, a monster, a grifter, a woman responsible for awful famine and science denial. A modern day Lysenko.

He didn’t invent anything

[dogstardigitalindex]

Podcast: The BS-Free Witchcraft Podcast Host: Trae Dorn (solitary eclectic Wiccan for 20+ years) Episode: 26. Witchcraft in the Time of Coronavirus Air date: 29 August 2020 Playtime: 29 minutes

Website | Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Opens with a then-recent clip of misinformation about curing coronavirus. Talks a bit about social distancing and Covened witches having to experience solitary witchcraft. Many witches are feeling burned out or isolated; it’s okay if you aren’t able to keep up witchy practices. Encourages smaller practices like nature walks. All witches go through phases like this.

[rickmctumbleface]

If you live in FL, your state is lying to you. This is what happens when politics meddles in healthcare. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/florida-new-covid-booster-guidance-misinformation-ladapo/

[zmyaro]

This is so fucking bleak. At 1/10 infections causing long term consequences, the mass disabling event we’re in is so massive I was wondering how it was going to be handled, because surely it would need to be addressed eventually… it appears that “addressing” has begun, and instead of prevention or support it’s just wholesale dismissal. If you haven’t yet stepped up yet for the disabled (and not yet disabled) people around you, now is the time to start, because if this is the direction they’re going then truly no one is coming to save us.

[variouslengthsofwire]

It’s such a waste of their own time. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Otherwise, no one will believe you. A better use of their time would be to find a mouse and try to teach it long division. No one would learn anything, but at least they’d have a mouse.

If you live in the US your household can order more free covid tests. Starting in late september, 2024, you will be able to order more tests at https://covidtests.gov . No shipping handling or any other charges, just feeling your address and have four nasal swab tests sent to your home for free.

There is also a new covid booster coming out after labor day. If you are doing any kind of significant traveling, or you will be spending a lot of time around big groups of people like at college or school, please plan on getting this year's flu shot as well as your covid booster. We had a winter level surge over the summer, I am very worried that we are going to have an even more significant surge this fall and winter.

[covid-safer-hotties]

Reference archived on our website (Daily updates! Thousands of articles, studies, and resources at your fingertips!)

Abstract Though scientific consensus regarding HIV causation of AIDS was reached decades ago, denial of this conclusion remains. The popularity of such denial has waxed and waned over the years, ebbing as evidence supporting HIV causation mounted, building again as the internet facilitated connection between denial groups and the general public, and waning following media attention to the death of a prominent denier and her child and data showing the cost of human life in South Africa. Decades removed from these phenomena, HIV denial is experiencing another resurgence, coupled to mounting distrust of public health, pharmaceutical companies, and mainstream medicine. This paper examines the history and current state of HIV denial in the context of the COVID pandemic and its consequences. An understanding of the effect of this phenomenon and evidence-based ways to counter it are lacking. Community-based interventions and motivational interviewing may serve to contain such misinformation in high-risk communities.

[leche-flandom]

Tired tired tired of the US deeming brown people expendable for their political agenda

[contemplatingoutlander]

Once again we see that with MAGA Republicans, every accusation is a confession.

Marjorie Taylor Greene and other GOP politicians like to use conspiracy theories to blame Fauci for the COVID deaths that THEY themselves should be blamed for.

It was GOP politicians who downplayed the pandemic.

It was GOP politicians who worked against vaccine and masking mandates.

It was GOP politicians (and right-wing media like Fox News) who spread misinformation and/or conspiracy theories about masking and COVID vaccines.

It was the GOP who "politicized" the pandemic, and they are the reason that death rates were higher in Trump-voting counties than Biden-voting counties AFTER the vaccine was available.

After the December 2020 introduction of COVID vaccines, a partisan gap in death rates developed, indicating the effects of vaccine skepticism.[1] As of March 2024, more than 30 percent of Republicans had not received a Covid vaccine, compared with less than 10 percent of Democrats.[1]

And it was Marjorie Taylor Greene who spread so much COVID misinformation on her Twitter account that in the pre-Musk Twitter years, MTG's Twitter account was "permanently suspended."

Finally, it was MTG who was one of the House members who balked at the rules about wearing masks to House sessions. And it was MTG who was fined over $100,000 for flaunting House mask rules (and who lost her appeal about the fines).

Perhaps it is people like MTG who spread COVID conspiracies and misinformation who should be "tried" for the excess COVID deaths that occurred in Trump-voting counties AFTER the vaccine became available.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) went after Dr. Anthony Fauci during a weekend political event, vowing to do everything she can to “lock him up” for “crimes against humanity.”

Speaking to a conservative audience in Dallas on Saturday at Turning Point USA’s People Convention, the Georgia lawmaker blamed President Joe Biden, Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Fauci over Covid-19 lockdown measures designed to curb the virus.

[charliejaneanders]

These groups gave jet fuel to misinformationat a crucial time in the pandemic. The richer they get, the worse off the public is because, indisputably, they’re spouting dangerous nonsense that kills people.

Tax records reveal the lucrative world of covid misinformation

[tomorrowusa]

VP Kamala Harris visited with Stephen Colbert. The convo is in several segments which continue below. Imagine commercials in between the segments.

In this segment she talks about the need for a ceasefire in Gaza and about how Trump kowtows to dictators even to the extent that he gave Putin COVID testing devices when they were still scarce in the US.

Here she talks about changes she would make in economic policy. She also talks about choosing Tim Walz as a running mate.

On a more social note, the VP shares a beer with Stephen. Mike Pence gets polite applause when mentioned.

[uboat53]

Well, FEMA was forced to curtail rescue and recovery efforts in Rutherford County, North Carolina after militia threats. They still have aid locations where you can come in and get help, but they're not going door to door anymore which means that they won't be able to reach the most vulnerable people.

When one of those people is harmed because FEMA couldn't reach them, you know exactly what's going to happen: the militia and conspiracy theory people who caused this in the first place with their lies and threats will declare that that person's suffering was caused by FEMA rather than their own actions. And they won't be acting alone. One of the reasons they feel so strong in the nonsense they're doing is that one of the two major-party candidates for president agrees with them, amplifies their paranoid conspiracies, and celebrates their acts of terror and violence.

Honestly, more than any policy or official act, the greatest damage that Donald Trump has done to the United States of America is that he has encouraged the worst, most paranoid and violent people in our society to act on their basest impulses. He has emboldened white supremacist militias to attack minorities and public events, he has incited the worst attack on our democratic institutions since the Civil War, and he has consistently spread misinformation that urges his followers to attack and disrupt the efforts of real heroes to help fellow Americans; most memorably during the Covid pandemic and even now as the southeast struggles to recover from back-to-back hurricanes.

If you're willing to accept this behavior in return for vague promises that "Republicans are good for the economy" or even a more explicit promise of a tax cut, I think it's valid that reasonable people begin to question your humanity. Nine years ago when Trump first entered the national stage, there was reason to wonder whether his public persona was an act or whether he truly was this kind of terrible person. It's been nine years now, and he was president for four of them; there's no longer any doubt that this is who he is and will continue to be.

Kamala Harris, the only other viable candidate, may not be to your taste on any number of policy issues, but if you value first responders and all of the lives that they save, vote accordingly.

[scottguy]

People profit off misinformation now. It's one of worst things that's come along with the Internet.