#center aligned on mobile so at least there's that

[swinging-stars-from-satellites]

don't look back

"Love from the Other Side" is a song by American rock band Fall Out Boy, released on January 18, 2023, through Fueled by Ramen and DCD2. It was released as the lead single from the band's eighth studio album, So Much (for) Stardust.

[ghelgheli]

To understand the full context of the American-led ‘53 coup against Mosaddegh in Iran it is imo critical to recognize anti-communism as a proximate cause. Write-up below:

It is commonly understood that the early decades of the 20th century in Iran are characterized by British colonial extortion of material resources (mostly oil) within the boundaries of “Persia” (pre-1935) / “Iran” (post). The penultimate monarchical dynasty, the Qajars, were ousted in 1925—but the exile of the last Qajar Ahmad Shah was the direct result of the 1921 military coup led by then-Reza Khan (later the first “Pahlavi”, Reza Shah) which was directed by Britain. And at this time, British anxieties heavily featured concerns about Bolshevik encroachment from the Caucuses (not just through the newly-formed Azerbaijan SSR, but also through domestic sympathizers that fueled such projects as large as the transient Persian SSR, put down by Reza Khan after Soviet withdrawal).

This is stage-setting. Of course, by the 50s, in tandem with Cold War thread-pulling, the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company constituted a thirsty tentacle of British imperialism sucking Abadan dry and contributing pittances to the local economy. It was in the midst of decades of growing resentment against this presence that Mosaddegh became Prime Minister in 1951 as the leader of the broad National Front coalition, and we are familiar with how intensely he campaigned for nationalizing the country’s oil and how pissy this made the British (here’s one and another post on the subject if not).

Here’s the detour: you may know that it was the CIA, an American institution, that orchestrated the ‘53 coup to oust Mosaddegh. But we were just now discussing threats against British colonial power in Iran. How did things get from B to A, as it were? We can’t take this for granted.

The British in fact spent the intervening two years trying to get Mosaddegh out by mobilizing the Shah and various right-wing (often clerical and mercantile) interests in Iran (this point, and much of what follows, draws from bits of Darioush Bayandor’s Iran and the CIA and Mostafa Elm’s Oil, Power, and Principle). They spent the same two years desperately trying to get the Americans on board with their efforts. But—here it is—the Truman regime and American foreign policy was in general intensely hostile to this strain of British interventionism in Iran, going so far as to issue warnings against it.

Why? Well, as you would expect, the Americans were concerned about Soviet influence in the region. Then-U.S ambassador in Tehran Henry Grady claimed that “Mosaddegh’s National Front party is the closest thing to a moderate and stable element in the national parliament” (Wall Street Journal, June 9 1951). This summarizes the American position at the time: Mosaddegh’s nationalist movement constituted the bastion against communism, and the US was very interested in the survival of this bastion lest Iran align with the USSR. 

What happened between 1951 and 1953 is that British pressure, operating through the Shah and more conservative elements of the Iranian government, jeopardized moderate support for Mosaddegh. With the right and center-right against him an entire wing of National Front coalition was falling off, and Mosaddegh found himself leaning more and more on the strengthening Tudeh Party, which had grown in numbers to militaristic significance during Mosaddegh’s tenure (including a network of at least 600 officers in the state military). Tudeh, of course, was the pro-Soviet communist party in Iran. And now the threads come together.

It was in this context of Mosaddegh, backed into a corner with almost only the communists behind him, that the CIA released a memo on November 20th, 1952 singing a very different tune:

It is of critical importance to the United States that Iran remain an independent and sovereign nation, not dominated by the USSR...

Present trends in Iran are unfavorable to the maintenance of control by a non-communist regime for an extended period of time. In wresting the political initiative from the Shah, the landlords, and other traditional holders of power, the National Front politicians now in power have at least temporarily eliminated every alternative to their own rule except the Communist Tudeh Party...

It is clear that the United Kingdom no longer possesses the capability unilaterally to assure stability in the area. If present trends continue unchecked, Iran could be effectively lost to the free world in advance of an actual Communist takeover of the Iranian Government. Failure to arrest present trends in Iran involves a serious risk to the national security of the United States.

And (!!!)

In light of the present situation the United States should adopt and pursue the following policies:...

Be prepared to take the necessary measures to help Iran to start up her oil industry and to secure markets for her oil so that Iran may benefit from substantial oil reserves...

Recognize the strength of Iranian nationalist feeling; try to direct it into constructive channels and be ready to exploit any opportunity to do so

It took two tries for the CIA to bring about a coup that removed Mosaddegh from power, but the objective of this coup was not the preservation of British control over Iranian resources; it was the maintenance of the Western sphere of influence against communist revolution (this was further prioritized by the arrival of the Eisenhower administration). In fact, after the coup the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (now renamed British Petroleum) had to make room for six other companies from the US, France, and the Netherlands as part of a consortium, and this consortium would split profits with Iran 50/50. This is, to be clear, still colonialist extraction! But it constitutes a huge blow to British economic interests, because they were never the CIA’s goal. This is part of why the post-coup government is characterized far more as a US puppet than a British one.

It does remain that this was a sequence of events very much set in motion because of actions taken by the British government; by the time they managed to get shit to hit the fan, though, it was very much no longer in their control where the shit was flying.

[mariacallous]

One of the Western populist right’s enduring myths about President Vladimir Putin’s Russia is that it is steeped in traditional values, a bastion of virtue standing in opposition to an increasingly godless West. In the United States, the fascination with Russia as a supposed global center of conservative virtue has especially gained currency in MAGA world.

This image of Russia as a traditionalist’s paradise led former Fox News commentator Tucker Carlson to offer both Putin and Russian far-right philosopher Alexander Dugin, one of Putin’s most vicious cheerleaders for genocide in Ukraine, the opportunity to expound their views to millions of Americans in a comfortable, uncritical setting. It is the reason that MAGA-aligned U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene talks about Russia as a strong protector of Christianity. And it’s why former Trump administration National Security Advisor Michael Flynn has framed Putin as a defender of “family and God.”

The contrast between myth and reality couldn’t be starker. The truth is that Russia is one of the world’s least religious societies, with only 9 percent of Russians attending religious services at least somewhat regularly, according to a poll conducted in 2022 by the Moscow-based Levada Center. By contrast, nearly one-third of Americans are frequent churchgoers. Just 1.4 million Russians—a mere 1 percent of the population—attended the most recent Christmas services. The Russian state also persecutes Christians who do not adhere to Russian Orthodoxy, including Baptists, Jehovah’s Witnesses, and, of course, anyone connected to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine.

Nor is Russia a bastion of what true conservatives would consider traditional values. Based on data calculated by the Guttmacher Institute, the Russian abortion rate from 2015 to 2019 was nearly four times higher than that of the United States and more than twice as high as that of Ukraine. Russia also has the fourth-highest divorce rate in the world—60 percent higher than in the United States and more than 50 percent higher than in Ukraine. Those among the U.S. and European far right who project their own ideals onto Russian society ignore the obvious and copious evidence.

The false image of a god-fearing Russia is hardly accidental. It is the consequence of systematic efforts by Putin and his propagandists to craft talking points for the global right—an effort that has accelerated since Russia launched its all-out war on Ukraine in 2022.

It wasn’t always so. After the Soviet collapse in 1991, a Russia shorn of most of its empire struggled with its post-communist identity. Under its first president, Boris Yeltsin, the country waded into the waters of a Russo-centric patriotism. But his chosen successor, Putin, supplanted this worldview by nostalgia for the former Soviet and Russian empires, as well as adulation of brutal autocrats such as Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin and Tsar Peter the Great.

Today, to both mobilize Russians for a bloody war and undermine support for Ukraine by appealing to the political extremes in the West, Putin and his ideologues have crafted a new mythology that depicts Russia as a bastion of traditional values rooted in religious faith.

This theme was front and center at Putin’s fifth inauguration as Russian president on May 7. In his address, he declared that “support for centuries-old family values ​​and traditions will continue to unite public and religious associations, political parties, and all levels of government.”

From their putative moral high ground, Putin and his propagandists in the Kremlin-controlled media have used the bully pulpit to rail against Western “woke-ism,” political correctness, and secularism, earning admiration among right-wing populists in the West. By projecting Russians and the Russian state as deeply religious and steeped in tradition—and by denouncing the Western establishment for its supposed attacks on traditional values—Kremlin propaganda has made serious inroads among cultural and religious conservatives in the United States and elsewhere.

This has helped create some measure of sympathy for Russia’s war against Ukraine among certain segments of the far right, which see Putin as a powerful voice on their side of the culture wars.

Margarita Simonyan, the head of Russia Today, the state media conglomerate responsible for most of Moscow’s global propaganda, crystallized the postulates and far-reaching ambitions of Russia’s traditionalist propaganda during a television appearance in February.

Speaking on the heels of Carlson’s fawning chat with Putin, Simonyan saw a major opportunity for Russia to find fellow travelers and new allies among those disgruntled by secularization in the West. Unlike Ukraine and its Western backers, which she called adepts of “satanism,” she described Russia as “the city on a hill” to which the world’s traditionalists can now flock to escape their stifling secular societies. She declared that traditionalist messaging is the “beacon of a wonderful idea” whose appeal can be likened to that of communism during the Soviet era. Russia, she continued, might even counter its severely shrinking population by attracting disgruntled traditionalists from around the world as immigrants to a new promised land of traditionalism.

To this end, the Kremlin announced a new decree on Aug. 19 that eases residency rules for refugees from countries where “traditional values” are under attack from “neoliberalism” and other supposed secular ills.

Aging Russian kleptocrats such as Putin, who formerly served in the security services of the atheist Soviet state, engage in performative religion at most. As the investigations conducted by the late Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny documented, the Russian ruling elite, including Putin himself, is obscenely wealthy and deeply corrupt. But state media outlets diligently portray them as god-fearing believers, generous patrons of monasteries, supporters of religious media, and sponsors of newly built churches—all paid for with money they have stolen from the Russian people.

These performative good works are applauded by the security service operatives who control the upper reaches of the Russian Orthodox Church. Purged and brought under complete state control under Stalin, the church has consistently promoted the aims of Soviet and now Russian policies. It is a vocal supporter of Putin’s war against Ukraine.

At the apex of performative piety stands Putin. Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill, born Vladimir Gundyayev and believed to be a former security services operative, has lavished praise on Putin for being “truly the first Orthodox president” of Russia. The link between Putin’s proclaimed religiosity and something approaching a divine right to rule Russia has also become part of the new ideological canon—back to the roots, if you will, of Russian Orthodoxy as an imperial church.

“May God help you to continue to carry out the ministry that God himself has entrusted to you,” Kirill said during Putin’s inauguration in May. Given the long-standing collusion between the Kremlin and a compliant church, it is little wonder that religious leaders actively support Putin’s war and encourage Russia’s young to lay down their lives.

To mask the degradation of spiritual and religious life, Russia has built a vast Potemkin village of new churches. Around 30,000 new parishes have been added in the post-Soviet era, averaging nearly three every day since 1991. Given Russians’ negligible interest in religion, they stand largely empty.

Simonyan’s comparison of Putin’s traditionalist, pseudo-Christian posturing with the global appeal of communism is apt in ways that she did not intend. Like communism, whose façade of equality and social justice masked mass repression and the emergence of privileged, all-powerful elite, today’s Russia has little patience for moral and ethical principles. Instead, the Russian state and the Russian Orthodox Church serve the exigencies of a kleptocratic mafia that rules over a deeply damaged, militaristic, and highly unequal society.

Indeed, in time, Russia’s newest state ideology is very likely to become another God That Failed—the title of a landmark 1949 book in which six Western intellectuals broke with communism, declaring that it was just a cover for a new form of dictatorship.

For the moment, none of this matters to the Western populist right, which has blithely ignored the carnage that Putin has inflicted on Ukraine. Nor will Russia’s performative religiosity put those Westerners off; their projection of virtue onto Putin’s Russia has become too important a part of their cynical politics. If your enemy is the West’s liberal and tolerant society, then the enemy of your enemy is your friend.

[discountalien-pancake]

How to sew “French” seams (in french they’re known as English seams, so…) by hand!

It’s actually really straightforward, at least to me. You sew each seam twice, which is extremely annoying, but other than that it’s not actually difficult.

Some basic guidelines you’ll want to keep in mind:

french seams are best for light-medium weight fabrics. With heavy fabrics you’re better off binding the seam allowances with thin ribbon.

not great for dramatic curves but soft curves can be managed with a narrow allowance.

you will be doing a lot of running stitches. Having a beading needle can be helpful for this because you’ll be able to take more stitches in one pass.

narrower final seams look prettier but are more fragile. fabrics prone to fraying (dupioni, charmeuse, linen, loose wovens, etc) need a wider seam allowance than fabrics that resist fraying (crepe de chine, cotton voile, knits). I recommend 10mm seam allowance for fabrics that don’t fray too much, and 12mm for ones that fray more (trust me, the 2mm makes a difference).

you can french seam knits! By hand! Keep in mind that you will want to use a blunt needle, like a small size tapestry needle, and you must use a backstitch for any seams that need to stretch parallel to the seam.

If you are seaming something that needs to be hemmed, i recommend doing the hemming first, before sewing panels together. If facing or binding the hem, you can do that before or after.

Start by laying your pieces right sides out, wrong sides together. Pin (or baste) along the seam line. For french seams, it does really help to cut pieces out with exact seam allowance so that you can simply align the cut edges.

Stitch parallel to the edge and seam line, a couple millimeters shy of dead center, closer to the edge than the final seam line. It may help to trace the secondary sewing line onto the fabric. Use a running stitch for this unless seaming knits or other stretch fabrics along a seam that needs to stretch in the direction of the seam. If the direction of stretch is primarily perpendicular to the seam, go ahead and use a running stitch. This line of stitching will almost never be subjected to strain, so a finely spaced running stitch is all you need. You can also use lower quality thread for this if you don’t have a lot of the nice stuff.

Press the seam allowance to one side, then the other. Really pull the layers away from each other to get the crease as close to the stitching as possible. Hold the two panels wrong sides out, right sides together, with the raw edges trapped between.

Starting from the hemmed edge, if there is one, anchor your thread in the seam allowance and whipstitch the hemmed edges together at the seam line.

Stitch along the marked seam line, which should fall outside of the raw edge. If you didn’t offset the first line of stitching enough, you may find this difficult and end up having raw edges poking through. You can use a fine running stitch for seams that won’t take strain, and a backstitch for seams that need more strength. You should use stronger, nicer thread for this as well. I like running stitch for this especially because that means i can use one length of thread for the entire length of the seam. Backstitch uses approximately triple the length of the seam + a tail, which becomes extremely unwieldy with long skirt seams, for example.

I end the line of seam stitching with a few backstitches.

Press the seam allowance to one side and marvel at how tidy they look. If the garment is mirrored, make sure the seam on the other side is ironed the other way.

Pictures below bc tumblr isn’t letting me rearrange them on mobile for some reason:

Last pic is showing a backstitched final seam. I only did that for the two side seams on the bodice because those are most likely to experience strain. All the skirt seams (6!!!) were running stitched.

In my experience, a french seam is one of the most comfortable seams to have against the skin. Ideal for shirts, fancy chemises, lingerie, etc.

I hope this explanation helped a bit! Truly the only thing you need to pay attention to is starting right sides out.

Go forth, make pretty slips and chemises!

[lacefuneral]

hi!!! i love for custom blog theme,, do you have a link to the code or creator 0:?

ya!

so my theme is actually a heavily modified version of redux edit #1 by lopezhummel (current url: holyaura). i always remind users that most tumblr themes are old and that you'll need to replace all instances of "http://" in the code with "https://" so tumblr will save the theme. i had to do it with this one

these are the modifications i made to the theme. i edited this theme over the course of at least a year or so and don't quite recall how i did all of these things. but to the best of my ability:

i moved the "left side img" to the right side of the screen. i also made this element "responsive" so the image will never get cropped when you resize your screen. this was a bitch and a half to figure out and i truthfully do not remember how i did it

i deleted the text in the drop-down navigation so it appears as a little line that is otherwise not noticeable. this type of theme, the "redux edit," used to be very popular because having a drop-down menu let you cram a bunch of links that lead to sub-pages on your blog. i've done away with my sub-pages, but i still like the format of the "redux style" tumblr theme, for its minimal UI and for its customization options.

i separated my mobile description from my web description for formatting reasons. basically, most elements in tumblr themes are connected to specific text fields and toggles. i simply went to the section that was connected to my blog description and deleted it. the web description has to be manually typed inside of the CSS/HTML editor when i want to change it. whereas my mobile description is whatever i type in the "description" box of the normal tumblr theme editors.

i added code someone else made ("NoPo" by drannex42 on GitHub) which allows you to hide posts with certain tags on them. i did this to hide my pinned post, as it looks bad on desktop.

i replaced the tiny pagination arrows at the bottom with images that literally say "next" and "back" because the arrows were far too small/illegible. i know they aren't centered in the container i'm not sure how to fix that lol

i added a cursor

i installed a working music box ("music player #3" by glenthemes), and then added music by uploading MP3 files to discord and then using the links of those files as the audio sources. iirc i also had to make this element responsive and i aligned it so it would sit on the left side of my screen. i made the "album art" for each one the same strawberry pixel art

the moth is just a PNG i added and then moved around so it was behind my sidebar using the options that came pre-packaged with the theme

if you want something like the strawberry shortcake decoration at the top (called "banner" in the theme) your best bet is to google "pixel divider"

theme didn't support favicon so i added that in so i could have a little heart

ALSO:

this theme is. really weird about backgrounds. any background that i have ever set for it, i've had to do weird shit in photoshop. like making the background HUGE, mirroring it, etc. - because it would crop the image weird, or there would be a gap where there was no image. idk man, it's haunted. i'm sure there's a way to fix this but i am NOT tech savvy enough. anyway, patterns are probably your best friend. and if you DO want something that isn't a pattern, it's going to take a lot of trial and error. but i love this theme so i deal with it 😭

the sidebar image and the floating image do not scale. if your image is 1000 pixels, it will display at 1000 pixels. you'll either have to edit the code so that the theme scales the image for you, or resize any images before you add them

my white whale of theme editing (aside from the Weird Background thing) is that i cannot get infinite scrolling to work. i have tried every code out there. all of them break my theme. it makes me sad because like. i have music there for a reason. the idea is that people would listen to it while they scroll. unfortunately, the way it's set up now, the music will stop every time someone clicks "next" or "back" 💀

anyway sorry for rambling but i hope you enjoy the the theme and customizing it in the way that you want to!

[speedyposts]

Q&A: Indonesia’s Prabowo Subianto ‘confident’ of election victory

Jakarta, Indonesia – On February 14, more than 204 million Indonesians will have the chance to vote for their new president.

Incumbent Joko Widodo is in his second and final term, and is constitutionally barred from seeking re-election.

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Voters have a choice between three presidential candidates – Anies Baswedan, the former Governor of Jakarta, Ganjar Pranowo, the former Governor of Central Java, and Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto.

Multiple polls indicate Prabowo has a comfortable lead over his competitors.

Prabowo has tried twice to become Indonesia’s president – and lost both times to Widodo.

Since 2019, he has served as defence minister in Widodo’s cabinet.

His running mate is 36-year-old Gibran Raka Bumingraka, the president’s eldest son.

But victory is still not a certainty. If no candidate can secure at least 50 percent of the vote, a second round of voting will be held in June.

While Prabowo is the most popular candidate, he is also polarising. Decades-old allegations of human rights abuses during his time in the military have been raised by rivals and rights organisations.

On the final day of campaigning on Saturday, Prabowo held a rally in the Gelora Bung Karno Stadium in Jakarta, where he addressed thousands of supporters.

Backstage, the 72-year-old met with Al Jazeera Asia Correspondent Jessica Washington for an exclusive interview, sharing his thoughts on why young voters have been drawn to his campaign and how he plans to win over critics.

Al Jazeera: It’s the last day of campaigning. Are you feeling confident that you can win this election in one round?

Prabowo Subianto: All the figures show that way…the grassroots enthusiasm. All the figures show that we will go in one round.

Al Jazeera: The enthusiasm of young people has been a key part of the campaign. What is your message to your young supporters?

Prabowo Subianto: The young today, they are more rational, they are more critical, they are smarter, they sense what is genuine and what is not genuine.

I think they are very concerned about their future, so those that have a good program and good strategy, those that have good commitments, they are the ones that the young can identify with they can support.

Al Jazeera: Is there something specific about your campaign that appeals to young people? Because your opponents might say it’s because of the Tiktok dances, the cartoon posters. Is there a specific policy that appeals to young people?

Prabowo Subianto: My policies are very rational, logical, with a common-sense approach that is actually building on all the work of our predecessors.

Nation-building is not a two year thing, a five-year thing. It’s a period of one generation or two generations.

We have to make use and build on everything that has been built by our predecessors. That’s why people of all strata the majority of them get my message and support us. They realise to build something, you must do it based on strong foundation and then build upon success. Brick by brick, stone by stone.

Al Jazeera: You obviously have very many supporters but there are also some strong critics. If you win this election, you will be their president too. How will you navigate this?

Prabowo Subianto: I will work for the good of Indonesia. Not for a certain segment.

I proved this, when the last election, I lost badly in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) province. But when I became Minister of Defence, I built one of the biggest and best polytechnics there. In the province where I lost.

Do you understand? I don’t believe in thinking short-term, thinking small. I like to think big and long-term.

Al Jazeera: Thinking big picture, how do you perceive Indonesia’s role on the global stage, if you do become president?

Prabowo Subianto: The good luck we inherited from our founding fathers is the philosophy of non-alignment.

Indonesia respects all countries, respects all great powers.

We want to have great relationships with everybody. We don’t want to be joining one bloc against another bloc. Our position is quite unique. We are friends with everybody. In any conflict or competition, we are the ones who can be accepted by all sides.

Al Jazeera: What does Gibran bring to this partnership, in terms of skills and experience?

Prabowo Subianto: More than 50 percent of our voters are below the age of 50. The young, are dynamic, savvy, and they are critical.

If you notice, the fact there is a vice-president under the age of 40, that’s is normal in many countries in the west. In Indonesia it has become some sort of issue, not because he is under 40 but because he is the son of President Joko Widodo, that makes some circles feel bad. But that’s politics. You cannot please everyone all the time.

Al Jazeera: What will Indonesia look like under your presidency?

Prabowo Subianto: I hope Indonesia will be dynamic, economically better-off. But most importantly, I want to alleviate poverty. I want to get rid of hunger. I want to get rid of stunting for Indonesian children. The figures are not so good, at least 25 percent of children are stunted, in the outlying areas. But even in West Java, there are children who do not eat well.

Al Jazeera: It’s one thing to say they will support you in polls, and to show up at campaign events. It’s a different matter when it comes to actually showing up on February 14 and voting. Do you have any concern about the reliability of your supporters?

Prabowo Subianto: From the fervour of my supporters, I think they feel that our team the real hope for them. I am confident they will turn up, they feel they need leaders who can understand their needs, who want to fight for them.

I would tell them, use your power, once every five years you have the power in your hands to choose leaders who will fight for you. If you vote for me, I will defend you and fight for you.

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[wreakinghavocnv]

Christmas: A Travesty

Unpopular opinion: Christmas is a goddam joke. Its stressful, expensive, and brings out the worst of peoples ‘character. It breeds jealousy and spoils our young. It also highlights the ever-growing socioeconomic gap among the classes. It reminds the poor that they are poor. And it gives the rich and vein ammo and a stage to flaunt their wealth in an already ignorantly divided country. The biggest problem with Christmas? We, as a society, have either forgotten or completely disregarded what it’s really about. How many of us “use to” go to church on Christmas but in our increasingly busy lives have forgone the one thing we ought to do that is supposed to give the 25th day of December substance? The number of carefully pieced together nativity sets I see around town has severely dwindled over the years while the number of unspoken light display competitions among neighbors has grown exponentially! An expanse of increased power bills and expensive electronic devices, shitting on the environment, used for only a fraction of the year for no real purpose other than to symbolize status and say to others, “I’m better than you cause my giant fucking swinging dick Santa Clause says so.” Are all these decorations really just overpriced inflated snowmen, or are they really products of under-deserved inflated senses of accomplishment for a society of people who only feel good about themselves if everybody knows about it?

As I grow in my sobriety and settle into getting serious about my upward mobility in life, I find myself in my early 30’s with two bundles of joy that turned into reckless toddlers and are now growing into grade school ankle biters. This predicament requires me to at very least appear to enjoy this time of year for their benefit. Trying to accomplish that daunting task has unfortunately only furthered my cynicism. All the values that are supposed to align with celebrating the birth of our lord and savior, or a day in early winter where we all buy each other shit, if you’re not into the god stuff, are all the values I would hope I will teach my kids to keep no matter what time of year it is. So in order to feel like a good man and not just a cynical asshole I’ve created a goal for myself. A resolution in fact! In the coming new year and hopefully there after I’m going to make sure I try my best to always remain generous to my family and others. Always remember and, when I can, be of help and service to those less fortunate than me. Remember that like patience, kindness is also a virtue. And most importantly remain close to God and stay rooted in my spiritual beliefs. If nothing else, I will keep these values front and center for no other reason than to spite fucking Christmas. In closing I will stay positive with this; the only good thing about Christmas is…. egg nogg.

[cambridgeenglishacdemy]

Best IELTS Coaching Centers In Tilak Nagar

Are you ready to embark on your journey towards success in the IELTS exam? Whether you're a student looking to study abroad or a professional seeking international opportunities, achieving a high score in the IELTS exam is essential. But with so many coaching centers out there, how do you choose the best one for your needs? That's where Grotal comes into play! In this blog post, we will explore the top IELTS coaching centers in Tilak Nagar and how Grotal can help you make an informed decision. Plus, we'll delve into important details such as minimal IELTS scores for different countries, cancellation or postponement processes, and much more. So let's dive right in and discover the key to unlocking your potential in the world of English language proficiency!

How can Grotal help you to choose the best one?

When it comes to choosing the best IELTS coaching center in Tilak Nagar, Grotal is your ultimate guide. With a vast database of listings and reviews, Grotal provides you with all the information you need to make an informed decision. Simply search for IELTS coaching centers in Tilak Nagar on Grotal's website or mobile app, and voila! You'll have access to a comprehensive list of coaching centers along with their contact details, ratings, and reviews. But what sets Grotal apart from other platforms? It's the power of real user experiences. The reviews left by students who have already attended these coaching centers can give you valuable insights into their teaching methodologies, faculty expertise, study materials provided, and overall learning experience. Additionally, Grotal allows you to compare different coaching centers side by side. This feature enables you to weigh the pros and cons of each center based on parameters like location convenience, batch size, fee structure, success rates of previous students, and much more. So why rely on guesswork when choosing an IELTS coaching center? Let Grotal be your trusted companion in finding the perfect match for your needs. Don't just settle for any center; choose one that aligns with your goals and aspirations - all thanks to Grotal's comprehensive platform!

What is the minimal IELTS score for varied countries?

The minimal IELTS score required for varied countries can vary significantly depending on the specific immigration or academic requirements of each country. It is essential to understand that different countries have different thresholds when it comes to accepting applicants with a certain level of English proficiency. For instance, if you are planning to study in Canada, most universities require an overall band score of 6.5 or higher in the Academic module of the IELTS exam. However, some programs may have stricter requirements and may demand a higher score. On the other hand, if you are aiming to migrate to Australia through skilled migration programs, you generally need a minimum band score of 7 in each section (Listening, Reading, Writing, and Speaking) in the General Training module. Similarly, for other countries like New Zealand or the United Kingdom, there are specific minimum scores set by their respective immigration authorities or educational institutions. It's crucial to research and understand the specific requirements for your desired destination before taking the IELTS test so that you can work towards achieving your target score.

What is the process to cancel or postpone an application?

The process to cancel or postpone an application for the IELTS exam is relatively straightforward. If you find yourself unable to take the test on the scheduled date, you have two options: cancellation or postponement. To cancel your application, you need to inform the test center at least five weeks before the test date. You will receive a refund, minus an administrative fee. However, please note that refunds are only given in certain circumstances, such as medical emergencies or bereavement. If you wish to postpone your application and reschedule for a later date, you must also notify the test center at least five weeks prior to your original test date. There may be a small fee involved in this process. It's important to remember that canceling or postponing should be done well in advance of the test day. Failure to do so may result in forfeiting your fees and having no option but to reapply and pay again for another exam slot. Always double-check with your chosen IELTS coaching center about their specific policies regarding cancellations and postponements as they may vary slightly from one institution to another. Remember, planning ahead and notifying the relevant authorities promptly ensures a smoother experience when it comes to managing changes in your IELTS exam schedule!

How can I find the best IELTS coaching center in Delhi?

When it comes to finding the best IELTS coaching center in Delhi, there are a few key factors that can help you make an informed decision. First and foremost, do your research! Take the time to explore different coaching centers in Delhi and gather information about their reputation, success rate, teaching methods, and experienced faculty. One helpful resource for this is Grotal. This online directory provides detailed listings of various IELTS coaching centers in Tilak Nagar along with reviews from past students. By reading these reviews, you can get a sense of the quality of instruction provided by each center. Additionally, consider reaching out to friends or acquaintances who have taken the IELTS exam before. They may be able to recommend a coaching center based on their personal experience. Another important aspect to consider is the availability of mock tests and practice materials provided by the coaching center. These resources play a crucial role in helping candidates prepare effectively for all sections of the exam. Don't forget to take into account your own learning style and preferences. Some people thrive in small group settings while others prefer one-on-one attention. Choose a coaching center that aligns with your individual needs. By considering these factors and utilizing resources like Grotal, you'll be well-equipped to find the best IELTS coaching center in Delhi that will help you achieve your desired score!

What skills are tested in the IELTS exam?

The IELTS exam is designed to assess a candidate's proficiency in the English language across four main skills: listening, reading, writing, and speaking. Each section of the test evaluates different aspects of your language abilities. In the listening section, you will be required to listen to a variety of recordings and answer questions based on what you hear. This tests your ability to understand spoken English in various contexts such as conversations or lectures. The reading section measures your comprehension skills through passages from books, newspapers, magazines, or other sources. You'll need to read these texts carefully and answer questions that assess your understanding of the information presented. Writing tasks evaluate your ability to express yourself in written English effectively. These tasks may include writing an essay or describing visual data accurately while maintaining coherence and using appropriate vocabulary and grammar. The speaking component involves a face-to-face interview with an examiner who assesses your ability to communicate fluently and accurately. You'll discuss various topics related to everyday life or more specialized subjects depending on the task given. Each skill plays a crucial role in demonstrating one's command over the language during the IELTS exam.

What can I bring into the IELTS test room?

When it comes to taking the IELTS exam, you need to be well-prepared. But apart from studying and practicing, it's also important to know what you can bring into the test room. The rules may vary slightly depending on the test center, but here are some general guidelines. You must bring your valid identification document that matches the name on your application form. This could be your passport or national identity card. Make sure to have a printed copy of your confirmation email or letter with you. This will serve as proof of registration and help avoid any confusion. You are allowed to bring pencils, erasers, and sharpeners for the writing section. However, mechanical pencils are not permitted. Water bottles without labels or transparent plastic bags for personal items like wallets and keys are usually allowed in most centers. Electronic devices such as mobile phones, smartwatches, tablets should be switched off and stored in a designated area during the exam. Remember that all personal belongings will usually need to be placed at the back of the examination room during testing time so try to keep them minimal. Knowing what is permitted in terms of materials can help ensure a smooth experience on test day!

Cambridge English Academy – IELTS Coaching in Tilak Nagar

Cambridge English Academy is a well-established IELTS coaching center in Tilak Nagar, Delhi. With their years of experience and dedicated faculty, they have helped numerous students achieve their desired scores in the IELTS exam. One of the key reasons why Cambridge English Academy stands out among other coaching centers is its comprehensive approach to teaching. They not only focus on improving your language skills but also provide valuable insights into test-taking strategies and techniques. This holistic approach ensures that you are well-prepared for all aspects of the exam. At Cambridge English Academy, you can expect personalized attention as they believe in small batch sizes to ensure effective learning. The experienced instructors are always ready to clarify your doubts and guide you throughout your preparation journey. Moreover, the academy offers flexible timings to suit different schedules. Whether you are a working professional or a student, you can easily find a suitable batch timing that fits your routine. Apart from their excellent teaching methods, Cambridge English Academy also provides ample practice material and mock tests to familiarize yourself with the actual exam format. This helps build confidence and enhances time management skills. So if you're looking for top-notch IELTS coaching in Tilak Nagar, Cambridge English Academy should definitely be on your list! Their proven track record of success speaks for itself. Don't miss this opportunity to receive quality guidance from experts who genuinely care about your progress.

Why Choose Cambridge English Academy?

Choosing the right IELTS coaching center is crucial for your success in the exam. And when it comes to finding the best IELTS coaching center in Tilak Nagar, look no further than Cambridge English Academy. Cambridge English Academy has established itself as a leading institute for IELTS coaching in Tilak Nagar, Delhi. Here's why you should choose them: 1. Experienced and Qualified Faculty: At Cambridge English Academy, they have a team of highly experienced and qualified faculty who are experts in their respective fields. They provide personalized attention to each student, ensuring that their weaknesses are addressed and strengths enhanced. 2. Comprehensive Study Material: The academy provides students with comprehensive study material designed specifically for the IELTS exam. This includes practice tests, sample questions, and other resources that help students familiarize themselves with the format of the exam. 3. Mock Tests and Practice Sessions: Regular mock tests and practice sessions are conducted at Cambridge English Academy to assess students' progress and identify areas that need improvement. These simulated exams help students build confidence and improve their performance. 4. Individualized Attention: The academy believes in providing individual attention to every student by keeping small batch sizes. This enables better interaction between teachers and students, allowing teachers to understand each student's learning style and tailor their teaching accordingly. 5. Flexible Timings: Cambridge English Academy understands that many working professionals may find it difficult to attend regular classes due to time constraints. Hence, they offer flexible timings including morning, evening, or weekend batches so that everyone can avail of quality coaching without compromising on their daily routines. 6. Personalized Feedback & Guidance: One of the standout features of Cambridge English Academy is its personalized feedback system where instructors provide constructive feedback on speaking performances during one-on-one sessions with each student individually. 7. Successful Track Record: Over the years, Cambridge English Academy has helped numerous aspiring candidates achieve excellent results in the IELTS exam.

Visit Here - https://cambridgeenglishacademy.com/ielts-coaching-in-tilak-nagar/

[foureyesisafish]

Ok, so I have a few notes on this, some of which are personal interpretation and some of which are disagreements from personal observations I've made comparing these two personally.

Firstly, the teeth since this is the most meta-focused, doylist part of the discussion: I think the teeth here are, most likely, a phylogenic red herring, for a few different reasons: - Firstly, among the pseudowyverns, I believe Barioth is the only one to have 'multicusped molars' (see point 3 though), though I'm unsure on Nargacuga. I'm leaning towards no for Narga but I haven't been able to check Narga's model to make sure. This would have weird implications for pseudowyverns as a phyolgenic grouping if I'm right about this, either implying Barioth + Magna must be a clade OR that they both evolved multicusped molars independently. - Secondly... Magnamalo and Barioth share next to no similarities outside of the fangs, the molars.... and their cat-shaped heads, which may be the true doylist origin of the molars. Given how Magnamalo is heavily influenced by tigers, it would make sense that one of the anatomical references the developers would use would be a tiger skull. If Magna and Barioth both had their heads overall based on cat skulls, that would explain the shared molars: they were both based on cat teeth. -Thirdly, looking at Magna's textured model... are those 'multicusp molars' actually supposed to be multicusp molars at all, or a more convenient way of rendering multiple teeth? It's definitely a very large stretch but given most of the tooth is below the gumline for a lot of these it's possible it was just a polygon reducer in some way. For your other points, though, I think I have some more solidly in-universe rebuttals and insights. Let's start with proportions, like you did. In terms of proportions, you're right that a lot of fanged wyverns and pseduowyverns are at least somewhat front heavy, but I think both Zinogre and Magnamalo are both very extreme in this regard in a way dissimilar to the other pseudos (or at least narga and barioth, the two that are sort of similar to this kind of build) but similar to each other. For the scales, you got the forearm similarity but missed the main one I was going for: the pairs of twin ridges down the backs of both Zinogre and Magnamalo. Magnamalo has additional ridges to each side of the torso, of course, but the center two seem very much analogous to those on Zinogre, especially since if I remember right they're both mobile. For horns, that's probably actually a good point about both not actually being homologous, but at the same time mobile horns are surprisingly common in this series. We just got another example in Rey Dau too, so it's possible there may be homology here even if it's unlikely. And now, for my biggest disagreement: the "claw". See, I think Magnamalo's "claw"/saber is an actual digit, and looking at the other pseudowyverns they also seem to have actual wing digits. The confusion is that it's rather hard to tell where the wrist exactly is here, but from me eyeballing it they all seem to originate slightly below the wrist rather than at the wrist. This would mean that all of these digits are more like dewclaws, which honestly seems more likely than styliform bones for the primary digit. Even not regarding all that for the pseudos, the thing that breaks your interpretation is that Zinogre's analogous digits don't align with the palm either. I know this is at least the case in the Rise renders but someone double checking for the World version would be great.

This render of Apex Zinogre really shows off how far off the palm they are as well as another detail that sort of seals the deal: these side claws also seem to consist at least partially of sharpened scutes. From that info, the state seen in Magnamalo seems to be the heavily derived counterpart to Zinogre's more basal state: one of zinogre's raised "claws" has been elongated and covered in sharpened scutes, while the other has dropped down. The interesting part of this is that Magnamalo has actually raised two digits: compared to Zinogre its first toe has also raised to become a dewclaw, which proves it's possible in the lineage. Speaking of digits, if we count up the digits of both Zinogre and Magnamalo (counting Magna's blades for the above), they have the same number of digits on their front and back feet: five in the front, four in the back, with the five in the front being unique among the fanged wyverns. There's a funny thing about that. None of the pseudowyverns have five digits in the front including their wing digits. None of them. Not even Barioth. For the part about air sacs... I honestly think fanged wyverns already have those? In my personal phylogeny that lives rent free in my head, Fanged Wyverns are the archosaurian (or the monster hunter archosaur equivalent) ancestors to the Flying and non-raptor Bird Wyverns, with the raptor Bird Wyverns and Brute Wyverns are their sister group (which would be dinosauria if we were to use real world taxonomic terms). I'd think the common ancestor of those two groups would have probably had at least some air sacs, which may actually develop into elemental sacs down the line. I agree with this headcanon completely, I just interpret it completely differently. Anyways, just wanted to share some more thoughts in more detail, and thanks for answering in such detail! I'm studying to be a biologist right now so talking about this is honestly fascinating. As a bit of an addendum, have some non-biological details that support that the devs intended magnamalo and zinogre being cousins: -Magnamalo's Rise render is an almost direct parallel to Zinogre's World render, save the legs being wider on Magnamalo. Their poses are almost exact reflections otherwise: forelimbs spread wide, tail arcing forward, head pointed down. - Magnamalo and Zinogre's main titles are in the same form of [Related Noun] [Mammal] Wyvern, with Zinogre being Thunder Wolf Wyvern and Magnamalo being Malice Tiger Wyvern. The only other monster to share this kind of title, to my knowledge, is Lunagaron, the Icy Wolf Wyvern and a fellow old world Fanged Wyvern.

So I was looking at your wyvern phylogeny and… why is Magnamalo on there? On the surface I may see some loose kinship to pseudowyverns… but the more you look at it, the more clear it becomes that it’s the closet relative to Zinogre. Similar proportions, similar shell patterns, relatively similar horns and even tooth anatomy… and even the big claw Magnamalo is similar to how Zinogre has one digit raised typically.

Sadly I’d have to disagree on all points. While both are front heavy, that’s the case with a lot of fanged wyverns and pseudowyverns. When in neutral position Zinogre itself is usually squatting on slightly spread legged, while magna maintains a more erect leg posture like Barioth. Their scale patterns are only really similar on the arms.

Their horns aren’t homologous either since magna has actual proper horns anchored to the skull while Zinogre just has two pointy scutes that sit on muscles that can pull them back.

Magnamalo has more in common teeth wise with Barioth. Zinogre has some difference in tooth size with canines and incisors, but they’re all fairly simple teeth with a single cusp.

Meanwhile Barioth and magna have multicusped molars (magna in particular only has 4 but that’s 4 more than Zinogre). Magnamalo’s fangs themselves are also multicusped.

Magna images curtesy of @krmoaten-blog thanks again

Magnamalo’s blades also don’t actually attach to the palm or have a proper claw, it attaches at the wrist and doesn’t move with the hand and instead of a claw it’s just a series of sharp scutes. This means it’s not actually a finger and instead a wrist styliform/pseudophalange like the wings of pseudowyverns.

By making magna a messed up pseudowyvern I can also give magna a place to store his farts. Since I have flying and bird wyverns as paraves that means they have an avian respiratory system, and I can co-opt some of those air sacks for fart storage in magna.

But that’s just kinda my take away for magna, and classifying him with Zinogre is also perfectly fine and valid

[sciencespies]

Bats' midnight snacks reveal clues for managing endangered species

https://sciencespies.com/nature/bats-midnight-snacks-reveal-clues-for-managing-endangered-species/

Bats' midnight snacks reveal clues for managing endangered species

How do we bring threatened and endangered animals back from the brink? The task is never easy or simple, but one thing is undeniably true: If we don’t understand these animals and what they need to survive, we have little chance of success.

Saving bats, then, is arguably a trickier endeavor than for other species. After all, the cryptic critters only emerge at night and are highly mobile, making it difficult to track their movements and behavior.

In a first-of-its-kind study, University of Illinois and Brown University scientists reveal the diets of endangered Indiana bats and threatened northern long-eared bats, providing clues to effectively manage both species and their habitats.

“This was an in-depth study of these two imperiled species in landscapes where they co-occur. Nobody’s done that before. This investigation gives us a much better sense of how bats not only coexist, but also how they benefit our forests and how we can thus manage the forest to provide bats with better habitat,” says Joy O’Keefe, an assistant professor and wildlife extension specialist in the Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences at Illinois.

Previous research into these bats’ diets relied on older, outdated technologies that could miss important prey species. And no study had yet investigated how the two species divvy up their prey resources to coexist.

“When you have two closely related species sharing the same habitat, that means they’re probably built similarly and need similar places to live and things to eat. This brings up a lot of questions about how they’re doing that. Are they competing? Or is there some system in place where they’re able to divide resources? Our job was to figure that out,” says Tim Divoll, a data scientist in the Center for Computation & Visualization at Brown who completed his doctoral research with O’Keefe.

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Divoll and O’Keefe humanely captured bats and collected fecal samples at two Indiana locations — a large managed forest and an area with small forest patches near a major airport — over four summers. The researchers identified insect prey from DNA in the bat feces and added a size classification as a more practical way of looking at insect prey.

“If a bat sees two moths that are the same size and have the same flight pattern, the bat’s not going to distinguish what species they are. It’s going to eat whatever moth it can catch,” Divoll says. “I wanted to use an analysis that better aligned with how bats might perceive their prey. We tend to assume that genetic classifications of prey are the most meaningful, but bats don’t study taxonomy.

“But the taxonomic identification can be very interesting. For example, maybe there are some insects in the dataset that require specific host plants. We want to help managers recognize that so they can manage for a diversity of plant types that host a diversity of insects, leading to healthier forests and more food options for bats.”

Overall, the two bat species ate a lot of the same insects, including moths, beetles, crickets, wasps, mosquitoes, and more. They also ate a significant number of agricultural and forest pest species, displaying their role as providers of beneficial ecosystem services.

Somewhat surprisingly, the northern long-eared bats, the smaller of the two, picked up slightly larger prey items. According to the researchers, that’s likely because the northern is a gleaner, meaning it grabs prey off surfaces, at least some of the time. O’Keefe says bats that use a gleaning strategy would likely have an easier time locating larger insects on bark or leaves. That’s in contrast to aerial hawkers, bats that take prey mid-flight; they’ll detect and go after anything moving in the air, whether it’s large or small.

That slight difference in prey size preference and feeding style may be enough for the bats to avoid direct competition, but the researchers can’t be sure from this study alone.

“It’s difficult to say whether they’re in direct competition without measuring the availability of different insect types, and we didn’t measure that in our study. But our earlier research in the same forested site showed northern long-eared bats use much less space when foraging than Indiana bats. And they’re selecting habitat slightly differently. At the end of the night, they might end up eating all the same things, but they’re finding them differently,” Divoll says.

The bats’ diets were so similar that there were greater differences between sites — forest or airport — than between bat species.

“This tells us that, at some level, they are generalizing on whatever is available at a given site. They might be flexible and specialize at certain times, but these two bats are going to go after whatever is predominantly there,” Divoll says. “They may use different hunting techniques and search different heights of the forest, but they both likely capture easy targets while searching for preferred prey.”

#Nature

[spnseason16]

Hey there! So, in case anyone is interested, I am posting the coding I did for the work skin to make my Supernatural Season 16 fic look like a screenplay on ao3! This workskin works both on mobile and on the browser and all I ask is that if you use it, you credit me (my ao3 is 2MusicLover2 and my main tumblr is @2musiclover2) and let me know that you used it (I would love to see your work!)!

This will serve as a step-by-step tutorial for how to use this workskin so that even if you have never coded or used a workskin before, you can use it! If you have used work skins before, you can just scroll down to the coding!

1. Create Work Skin

First, you need to create a new work skin. On your ao3 dashboard, go to "skins", make sure you are on the tab that says "my work skins" and then press "create work skin". I am currently doing this from mobile, so my screen may look slightly different than yours, but it should work the same.

2. Name Work Skin

Next you will need to name the work skin. For the purposes of this tutorial, I am just going to call it "Screenplay Tutorial". While you do this, you should also double check that you are creating a work skin under the "Type" drop down menu.

3. Add CSS

Here is where you will copy and paste the CSS into the CSS box. Everything you need to copy and paste is in green text below.

#workskin .title {

font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;

text-align: center;

text-decoration: underline;

}

#workskin .epauth {

font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;

text-align: center;

}

#workskin .act {

font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;

text-align: center;

text-decoration: underline;

}

#workskin .scene {

font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;

}

#workskin .desc {

font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;

margin-left: 30px;

}

#workskin .char {

font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;

margin-left: 40%;

margin-right: 30%;

}

#workskin .dia {

font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;

margin-left: 30%;

margin-right: 30%;

}

#workskin .par {

font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;

margin-left: 35%;

margin-right: 30%;

}

4. Create Fic (Or Edit Existing Fic)

Now you will want to go back to your dashboard and click on either "Post New" to create a new fic or "Edit Works" to select and existing fix to edit.

You will fill out all of the information for your fic like normal, until you get to the box labeled "Associations". In this box, you will go to the drop down menu labeled "Select A Work Skin" and select the skin that you have just created.

5. Add Text to Rich Text Box

Once you finish filling out the information for your fic, you can paste your fic into the "Rich Text" box under "Work Text".

To help format, put two spaces between the scene number and the scene for scene headers with a single digit scene number, and one space in between the scene number and the scene for scene headers with a double digit scene number. For example, with underscores in place of spaces, the first scene should be written as: "1__INT. SCENE - DAY" and the tenth scene should be written as "10_INT. SCENE - DAY".

6. Format Text

Last but most certainly not least, you will need to format the text to make sure it all looks correct. Switch to the "HTML" tab under "Work Text" and you will see the coding for the text you had just inserted. Find the code for your title, and type class="title" after the <p.

Next, find the code for your episode number, episode title, and by-lines and type class="epauth" after the <p.

Next, find any headings such as "TEASER", "ACT ONE", "END TEASER", "END OF ACT ONE", etc., and type class="act" after the <p.

Find all scene headings and type class="scene" after the <p.

Find all scene descriptions and lines such as "FADE IN" and "BLACKOUT" and type class="desc" after the <p.

Find all character tags and type class="char" after the <p.

Find all dialogue and type class="dia" after the <p.

Lastly, find all parenthetical text and type class="par" after the <p.

7. Post Your Fic!

Now you can post/preview/save your fic to see it formatted as a screenplay!

Happy coding and writing! Don't forget to let me know if you use this, and if you need any help, feel free to ask!!

[copperbadge]

Sewing a Duck Bill Mask: A Quick Handy Guide With Photos

I’ve had a couple of requests for a guide to how I make the masks I’ve been wearing and selling, so I sat down and made one while taking pictures. This is for a “duck bill” style mask (also known as a Fu Mask) which does not have pleats but does have a generous nose pocket. The original pattern came from Make Masks 2020 and you can find the pattern here, but I have made several modifications. 

Instructions below the cut! Sorry for mobile users. 

So, in the pattern linked above, my original template was the largest size on the last page, with a 1/4″ seam allowance added onto that all the way around. That’s what you see here on the right. 

However, the one on the right proved to be just slightly uncomfortably small for a lot of people, and I had a friend who wanted a wider chin so he could speak easier with one on. So I created the template on the left, which added some length to the height of the mask and the width of it, and slightly curved out the round “nose” side more. I’m afraid I don’t have a pattern of it handy because I basically just traced the original and made my mods freehand, but you can see the differences in comparison pretty clearly. Don’t be afraid to test out a few freehand trials, since all your pieces will be the same size anyway. 

I find using a piece of thick cardboard as a pattern is easiest; I put the template on the fabric, trace around it with a marker, then cut out the shape. I flip it over and trace and cut again for the second piece, and so on. (I actually do a complicated maneuver involving several careful folds, but we won’t get into that.)

Essentially, to start with, you are cutting out four pieces of fabric using the same template; two with the “nose” facing one way and two with it facing the other, so that when flipped their “good” sides face each other. These four panels will make up your mask. 

You place the panels with the “good” sides facing each other because you’ll be sewing it inside-out and then reversing it. To start, each set of two panels gets a single seam on the curved “nose” side: 

It will end up looking like this: 

The tip of the scissors is pointing at the nose seam. Remember if you’re using fabric with a pattern oriented a certain direction, the curvy bit is where your nose will be and the longest straight side is the bottom of the mask. Orient your template accordingly. 

You can trim the excess from the nose seam if you want; it isn’t absolutely vital but can be helpful later.

Then you’re going to take one of the two pieces you now have, it doesn’t really matter which, and turn it right side out: 

now tuck it between the two pieces of the one that’s still wrong-side-out, to make a sort of sandwich: 

Make sure you snug the two nose seams up as close to each other as you can. It likely won’t be perfect. 

Now open both pieces like a book. You will create a “pocket” where the nose seam is, and that’s ok, just pay attention to which side it’s on. Note that the long straight edges on the bottom are at a slight angle to one another -- that’s normal and how it should look if you’ve folded it open properly. 

In this one you can see that the “pocket” is on the right side of the fold. So I’m going to sew two seams on the left side of the fold first, where the pocket isn’t. First the bottom seam, starting from the middle and going outward: 

Then the top seam, starting from the middle and following the curve of the “top” of the mask, so that eventually I have half the mask sewn together like so:

Note that the short straight edge opposite the nose pocket is not sewn together; that’s where the ear loop will go, so we’re not sewing that yet. It’s just the top and bottom for now. 

Now you need to flip the nose pocket so it’s under the part you’ve already sewn. You’re not turning anything inside out, you’re just moving the pocket-flap so you’re not sewing the top to it. Then sew the other two seams, again starting from the middle, so eventually your mask looks like this: 

You can see at the bottom of the right side that the fabric isn’t completely aligned. As long as the blue fabric and pink fabric are reasonably flush with each other inside the seam, that doesn’t matter; it just happens sometimes in the course of using two dimensions to sew a three-dimensional object. Do not panic, just trim it if you want to and go on with life.

So now you have what is basically a lumpy fabric tube; both ends are open, so you can turn it inside out, rather like a sock with the toe cut off: 

Aw, it’s a butterfly. 

Make sure you tuck one nose seam inside the other, and run your fingers along the edges of the open ends to pull the fabric all the way up to the seam. For some of my clumsier ones I use an iron, but usually you can just push on the seams and it’ll flatten out into something that’s starting to look more masklike. Take a very blurry photo. :D

This next step is 100% optional and by far the most difficult part; it’s the central nose seam, which binds the two pieces together at the center and adds structure to help hold the mask away from your face even as the edges lie flush with your skin. Open up the mask but don’t flatten it, so it forms a sort of cup, and press the two nose seams (pink and blue) together as you sew a seam up either side of the center from bottom to top. 

The fabric will remain curved in front of and behind the machine’s “foot”; don’t try to flatten it, it’s meant to do that. Just do the best to keep the bit directly under the foot flat and smooth. 

This is where I am most likely to screw up and cause wrinkles, little bunches, etc. These are cosmetic and don’t impact the mask particularly, but I always try to have the “front” of the mask -- the side people will see when you wear it -- on the inside (the pink, in this case) because the wrinkles and pouches are more likely to show up on the part you can’t see while sewing (the blue). 

Not perfect, but serviceable. Phew! As I said, that step is not mandatory, your mask will work perfectly fine without it, I just like the look and it does help hold the mask away from your face a little. 

Now you’re going to address those open, unsewn ends. Take the raw ends and tuck about 1/4″ to 1/2″ inward on both sides so that you have a nice neat edge: 

You can see how the pink and blue are tucked in against each other, as opposed to the raw blue beneath them on the other end of the mask, which hasn’t been tucked yet. 

At this point you can do a number of things; you can sew in laces you tie behind your head, for example, or elastic tape that goes over your head. I use everyday hair elastics in a couple of different styles as ear loops.

The one in the middle, which is thin rolled nylon, is my elastic of choice because it’s the right mix of broad and stretchy. These are known as Scunci brand “hosiery ponytailers”. The one on bottom is heavier and less inclined to stretch but is more available, at least in Chicago (I can get a bag of 50 for $7 a lot of the time). Both are 2″ diameter nylon hair ties available at most places that sell hair accessories (the scunci brand I get at Target, the generic one below it at a local bodega). The one at the top is not ideal, but you can get like 20 of them for $2 at Walgreens and they’re not awful. Just make sure that whatever kind you use, your needle is sharp enough and they are soft enough for the needle to pass through them easily. You will need two loops, one for each side, snipped once to open up the loop. 

Tuck the ends of the elastic into that neat clean edge you’ve made on the end of the mask, then carefully sew a seam on the outside of the mask, over and through the elastic. Use a small stitch to ensure that at least one or two stitches pass directly through the elastic itself. You may have to shove it a little to get it under the foot. 

If you’re fashion-forward, make sure you’re using a color that will compliment or contrast with the fabric. I like using blue thread on warm fabrics, orange thread on blues and purples, and green thread on greens, whites, and blues. 

Turn the mask over, do the same tuck, elastic, and seam on the other side, and your mask is complete!

It seems like a lot of steps, but once you’ve done it, it’s relatively straightforward. Have fun and keep masking! 

[beesandwasps]

[Belated response]

Two points:

1. The Democrats are operating on the “beach ice cream” principle. I’ve explained the metaphor before, but here it is again:

If there’s a fixed length of beach with 2 ice cream vendors and people are evenly distributed across the whole thing, the assumption is that everybody on the beach is going to buy ice cream from the nearest vendor, rather than walking past them to buy from the other. This being the case, a naive analysis will say that if vendor A can move their location and vendor B can’t, then the location for vendor A which will maximize sales is immediately next to vendor B, on whichever side of vendor B contains the larger portion of the beach. And if both stands are mobile and both want to maximize sales, they will end up as close as possible to each other at the center of the beach, giving them each half of the total sales. Any other positioning is unstable, because as long as there is space between them, either vendor will increase sales by moving towards the other to increase their share of the beach. It would actually be better for the customers if the two vendors were each ¼ in from the ends of the beach — the average distance to a vendor would be cut in half compared to having both in the center — but unless the two vendors agree in advance to stay in those positions, they will inevitably move towards each other to maximize sales.

But that analysis involves a lot of hidden assumptions, the most critical one being that everybody on the beach is willing to walk all the way to the nearest ice cream vendor no matter how far away they have moved. In reality, if both the vendors are at one end of the beach, people at the other end are going to decide they don’t want to walk all the way over just for ice cream.

It also assumes that people are evenly distributed on the beach — a reasonable assumption for a beach, but not so reasonable if instead of a beach you are dealing with political positions, which tend to cluster.

2. All of this is wrong anyway! Political alignments are not reasonably representable as a single number.

In reality, politics consists of a large number of issues which are only sometimes related, on which individual voters have different opinions and to which they assign different levels of importance. Attempting to convey all of that with a single numerical value cuts out important information to the point of being at least potentially misleading.

For example: through much of the second half of the 20th century, the Republicans were anti-abortion and anti-government-spending (other than the military). We are used to thinking of those two stances as being right-wing stances which align “naturally”, but in actual fact the combination is artificial. There’s no particularly logical progression from one to the other; if anything, being against government spending would tend to make one pro-choice, since parents tend to need extra support in the form of social programs; abortion reduces the need for governmental social spending. During that time period, though, there were a lot of Catholics who were pro-government-spending (on, for example, anti-poverty and public health measures) and anti-abortion, and a lot of wealthy WASPs who were anti-government-spending but broadly pro-choice, but despite having opposite preferences the two joined the same party. That’s because the Catholics were only pro-government-spending but quite definitely ☞☞❗️𝐀⃞𝐍⃞𝐓⃞𝐈⃞-𝐀⃞𝐁⃞𝐎⃞𝐑⃞𝐓⃞𝐈⃞𝐎⃞𝐍⃞❗️☜☜ while the wealthy WASPS were ☞☞❗️𝐀⃞𝐍⃞𝐓⃞𝐈⃞-𝐆⃞𝐎⃞𝐕⃞𝐄⃞𝐑⃞𝐍⃞𝐌⃞𝐄⃞𝐍⃞𝐓⃞-𝐒⃞𝐏⃞𝐄⃞𝐍⃞𝐃⃞𝐈⃞𝐍⃞𝐆⃞❗️☜☜ but only pro-choice. The relative importance they assigned to the issues overrode the differences in their opinions and put them into a coalition.

To get a reasonably accurate mathematical model of people’s political positions would require at least two values per issue, and this is complicated by the fact that there are potentially an endless number of issues out there, with the majority of people not caring about the majority of issues. There is somebody out there, somewhere, who cares deeply about regulatory control over watercolor paint composition. Possibly because they formulate paint pigments for a living, possibly because they had a sibling who died by putting a tube of watercolors in their mouth at the age of 4 months, possibly for reasons so obscure we can’t imagine them. Even to such a person, that issue still might not be important enough to change their vote in an election, but it would be important enough to tip the scales if no other issue already settled their choice. Meanwhile, everybody else would be bored stiff even listening to a description of the candidates’ views on the subject, assuming they have any views in the first place… but the next person to be considered is very worried about the high cost of umbrellas, and the next person after that wants hair metal bands banned from high schools, and the next person thinks there should be public funding for small-scale backyard molybdenum refining.

To use a bit of mathematical jargon, a political position is a vector in a Hilbert space, and projecting that vector onto a single axis automatically loses so much information that even the sign of the value is potentially questionable.

And that’s really how the Democrats lost such a chunk of various minority votes in 2024. The assumption has always been that the Republican stance on minority rights is so terrible that minorities would always stick with the Democrats automatically, but minority voters have begun to shake off their fears, and in any case the Democratic Party’s stance on immigration and border control was pushed so far into alignment with that of the Republicans that it permitted a large number of minority voters to jump ship.

[olivieblake]

I know we are concerned about trump rolling back many rights such as Roe v Wade and gay marriage etc, and if there was ever a time it would be done it would be now with the court the way it is but I wonder sometimes if those two issues are kinda like carrots dangling in front of a horse. A major issue we have is the left has nothing to unite them there are so many ideas about what needs to be done and it's impossible to have everyone be represented by one person. (1)


the right seems to push most everything to the side for the issues of abortion and gay marriage, and I guess guns and money. To me it feels like there would be benefits to stringing them along in order to get their votes year after year. Fighting to keep a law doesn’t give the same fire as fighting to change something as seen by how many on the left are willing to not vote cause Biden is exactly like trump despite the very real threat of the loss of these rights. I don’t mean like there is no reason to worry/vote cause it won’t happen, I think the threat the most serious its ever been but I wondered your thoughts on how much these issues are used to keep the GOP votes rolling in or if you think they’d struggle once those issues were gone or am I totally wrong, ha. It’s frustrating as a christian (or was idk anymore its turned so ugly) to watch others give up their morals for something they might not get just cause they are so simple to manipulate imo

I won’t lie to you, anon, this was... hard to make sense of, so let me open by restating what I think you’re trying to say? it seems like maybe you’re arguing that abortion and gay marriage are hot button issues that generate a controversial polarity where everyone is driven to vote based on their position on those issues, so if those issues were no longer on the table there would be nothing to keep people actively participating. it also seems like maybe you resent this because you’d like to vote your morals, but based on these controversial social issues you’re being forced to take a political position you don’t align with fully. 

here’s what I think you’re right about: the american two-party system forces a polarity that favors centrism, or has up to this point. yes, the left is a collection of extremely variant positions that are forced further and further center-right as a party as a result of the right becoming increasingly fundamentalist. this is arguably the greatest flaw in american policy construction: the founders did not believe that anyone after george washington would ever garner 51% of the popular vote, meaning that there would always be a tie and then the senate, representing the states, would choose the next president. basically, they set up a system much more like the british bicameral legislature than what we have now, where the states would select the next president from among themselves. but because the federalists and democratic republicans mobilized the way they did, we have the system we have now, where every issue is essentially black and white; either yes or no. 

dichotomies are inherently problematic, and while I do not agree that the left lacks unity in their policies, you’re correct that a “true” left does not exist in the united states; aka bernie and even warren should not be democrats if biden is also a democrat. that’s fair, or would be, if we did not have only two ideologies to choose from.

I do think there are some flaws with your premise (? as I interpret it) that these specific social issues are “hot” and/or controversial enough to drive people to the polls vs. being the actual, true defining issues for each party. I disagree. the politics of abortion are not about the value of human life, but the autonomy of women. the politics of marriage are not about whether homosexuality is morally reprehensible, but about whether the state should allow faith-based policy to control how two consenting individuals choose to live. in my mind, these positions are consistent with the concept that government should interfere against systemic prejudices, especially where it’s necessary to maintain our foundational separation of church and state.

the fact is also that the right is a mess. a true conservative party in this country would oppose ALL government regulation; they should be anti-gun regulation AND pro-choice, and essentially pro-everything that isn’t government interference. the fact that the republican party doesn’t fall within these theoretical lines is a flaw as a result of who holds power in that party: white christian men. in order to maintain their social power, they bend their political agenda wherever necessary to ensure that women and minorities do not gain autonomy where they have always maintained control. this is what unites the right, which means that the “left,” which is really more center AND everything left of center, supports politics that do dignify minorities. 

would this be the case if we had multiple political parties? probably not, so your frustration is shared by many. you’ve probably heard this many times, but essentially the argument for biden, even by those who know he will not provide them the policies their consciences dictate, is that he has already shown he—and the party—can be pushed further left. he did not sign on with concepts of the green new deal until bernie and liz warren’s campaigns dictated that politically he needed to, at which point AOC signed on to help him build his own. so is he perfect? no. but if biden wins, there is room to keep fighting for what we want from democratic policy; he is responsive to public pressure. if 45 wins, we lose, end of story. fascism cannot be pushed.

morals are difficult to argue when it comes to politics. for example, the very popular but nonsensical “socially liberal but fiscally conservative” dichotomy is an untenable paradox that a person can only hold as a beneficiary of the existing system. when only one group of people has maintained generational/inherited wealth that allows them to benefit from a lack of social programs and government intervention, of course there is no such thing as having only one foot in the water. the overlap between the christian agenda and white supremacy is also difficult to separate, because while theologically christianity should promote certain values, christianity as an institution was born from imperialism, forced conversion, and a doctrine of constant proselytization. I say this as a catholic; I don’t dislike religious beliefs. but the way religion motivates political decisions is fundamentally flawed.

if your argument (or the argument of those around you) is that the problem with this election is that the left is a collection of ideologies lumped together in order to oppose some very narrow policy decisions, yes, you’re right. but if we pushed even remotely left from where we are now, we might be closer to the center, and then we can continue to push left. I would argue not that this is a time to abandon your principles just to win the presidency, but to at least be unselfish enough to realize that institutional change must be affected incrementally; to recognize that even if your life is not severely affected by 45 and the republican party winning over biden and the centrist-dems, far-right or alt-right policies do undoubtedly cause damage to countless others. you may not get everything you want from biden, but the opportunity to continue to achieve policy decisions you support is there.

try not to allow others around you to create a false dichotomy where this is somehow a choice between two evils; it isn’t. it’s a choice between a closed door and an open one, and even a baby step is a step. 

[stumpyjoepete]

I. Inspiration

It’s difficult to identify a great economic reason to explore space. There are easier ways to extract minerals, doing anything at all is terribly expensive, and Mars is a hard place to make a living. The benefits of space exploration are instead mostly inspirational. Few other human activities are so grand to captivate the imagination, and doing these uneconomic projects have pulled forward technological capabilities that may otherwise have languished.

It’s difficult to identify a great economic reason to practice socialism. Its historical results have ranged from catastrophic misallocation of talent at best to mass deaths at worst. But socialism still retains appeal to broad segments of many populations, which shows that it has considerable inspirational value. For better or for worse, there are still many advocates for the creation of some form of a more equal society.

This year, I read every issue of Qiushi (translation: Seeking Truth), the party’s flagship theory journal, whose core task is to spell out the evolving idea of socialism with Chinese characteristics. For those not familiar, Qiushi reads like a cross between the New Yorker and the Federal Register. Published twice a month, the magazine features lengthy essays, thick pages, and some of the finest writers in the party. Each issue starts in the same way: a reprint of a speech or essay by Xi Jinping—in a font distinct from the rest of the magazine’s—and then commentary and reports from the rest of the party state. Accompanying pictures feature either the country’s leaders making inspections, scenes of the people, or major pieces of infrastructure and heavy industry.

Its audience? People with nothing better to do than read the party center’s commentary (like retired cadres), or those who are keenly interested in Beijing’s priorities, like local officials. Reading party speeches with its various annexes and cross references echoes my main professional activity these days. That is the study of the US sanctions regime—namely Commerce’s Export Administration Regulations and Treasury’s IEEPA-based authorities. Party speeches and US regulations are both made up of arcane, formal language that make references to more obscure texts, which themselves hint at still more distant and terrible truths. US sanctions lawyers, I suspect, can have a splendid time with Qiushi.

Steady engagement with the journal throughout the year has forced me to think more deeply about the Chinese Communist Party. There are many things that Xi wants to do, I believe that his most fundamental goal is to make this Marxist-Leninist party an effective governing force for the present century. His patient work to reshape the bureaucracy are aided by a distinctive feature of the Chinese system: the use of propaganda to create centralized campaigns of inspiration. Some of Xi’s efforts have borne fruit: the country’s governance capabilities have markedly improved, a trend that is observable in daily life. At the same time, the state has grown much more repressive. A focus on repression shouldn’t neglect the improvement in the country’s institutional and commercial strengths; and appreciation of this improvement ought to be tempered by the party center’s growing mania for control.

When foreign commentators discuss the experience of reading state media, they rarely fail to attach a reference to its “turgid prose.” While some partyspeak is indeed unreadable, I’ve always seen that dismissal as a signal of contempt for the party’s pronouncements, thus deterring people from taking it seriously. But there is reason to treat its content with care. Propaganda might not matter to you, but it matters to the party. Anne-Marie Brady has pointed out that the leadership considers propaganda to be the “lifeblood” of the party state. Propaganda work is considered so powerful that the person in charge must be only a functionary. Brady shows that the head of propaganda always has a seat on the Politburo, but shouldn’t usually be allowed to reach the standing committee. He is not to be too imaginative, or he might dominate the entire political system. Propaganda is key to understanding the party, since it governs not in itself, but in symbiosis with state institutions. For the most part, the party’s role can be boiled down to two items: inspiration, by setting the ideological direction, and control, through its power to select personnel.

Qiushi offers an authoritative articulation of the central government’s priorities at any moment. Its job, like the rest of the state media, consists of repetition and explication of a few phrases. It’s easy to roll one’s eyes at crude sloganeering, like the two centenary goals of achieving a “moderately prosperous society in all respects” by 2021 and “a modern socialist country and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese people” by 2049. But the need to fix slogans makes good sense in Chinese governance: the party center has to speak to all local officials as well as the entire population. As Richard Epstein has argued, the greater the complexity in a system, the simpler the rules that govern it must be. One should allow, for example, extensive and nuanced bargaining between buyer and seller at the vegetable stall, but for an online marketplace to manage millions of transactions a day, then its rules must be very simple indeed.

[...]

Centralized campaigns of inspiration, which usually manifests through fixing slogans, is a distinctive feature of the Chinese political system. In the US, political candidates trot out slogans when they run for election; in China, one is never far from the next big named initiative. At its best, defining major goals is the essence of political leadership, and nowhere is this principle better illustrated than Apollo. John F. Kennedy announced the target in 1961: land a man on the moon and return him safely to earth before the decade was out. By fixing this clear goal, as well as committing the necessary spending, he accelerated the creation, development, and deployment of technologies that made the lunar landings possible.

Xi grasps this idea of leadership. In his tenure, he has unleashed a torrent of new initiatives. In my view, he feels that the practice of governing China under socialism cannot be an exercise in sustained mendacity. The political system can no longer continue to be an unstable structure based on ad hoc compromises; instead it must have a clear organizational structure, with the party at the top. And the ruling party needs to have the political consciousness of an effective governing force.

[...]

It’s easy to enumerate the grave problems facing the country, but critics tend to under-appreciate its strengths. Chief among them, in my view, has been the party’s surprising adaptability. At any given point, commentators have said that the problems have become too big for the government to handle. Meanwhile, the country has achieved a good record of pulling itself out of sticky situations: in 1992 when it restarted reform, after the financial crisis of 1997, and again in 2008. That record was validated most spectacularly again this year in the aftermath of the Covid-19 outbreak.

This year made me believe that China is the country with the most can-do spirit in the world. Every segment of society mobilized to contain the pandemic. One manufacturer expressed astonishment to me at how slowly western counterparts moved. US companies had to ask whether making masks aligned with the company’s core competence. Chinese companies simply decided that making money is their core competence, and therefore they should be making masks. The State Council reported that between March and May, China exported 70 billion masks and nearly 100,000 ventilators.

I’d highly recommend reading the rest (at least up until he switches to book reviews and personal reflections).

[speedyposts]

How will Donald Trump’s criminal trials affect his re-election bid?

The odds that Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential candidate appear more likely by the day.

The former United States president has cemented his hold on the party nomination with convincing early victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, and his field of Republican challengers has dwindled in response.

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Yet, despite his strong frontrunner position, Trump faces four criminal trials that could complicate his re-election bid.

He has been accused of mishandling classified government files, falsifying business documents to conceal a hush-money payment, and conspiring to overturn the 2020 election results in the state of Georgia.

He also faces a separate federal indictment accusing him of interference in the 2020 vote, which he lost to President Joe Biden. He has pleaded not guilty in all four cases.

But while the US Constitution allows Trump to seek the presidency even if he is convicted, a guilty verdict could affect his ability to campaign — and raise never-before-seen scenarios, experts say.

“That a major party candidate, somebody very competitive in the polls, could be facing criminal indictments, that’s unprecedented. [That he] could be going to trial during the primary season, that is unprecedented. If he were to be convicted, that would be unprecedented,” said Craig Green, a professor of law and government at Temple University.

“All of these things are really extraordinary.”

Could Trump be forced to campaign from a jail cell? Would a conviction push him to drop out? And will the criminal trials affect his electability? Here’s all you need to know.

Yes. The US Constitution says any “natural born citizen” aged 35 and up, who has been a US resident for at least 14 years, can run for president.

“There’s no language in the Constitution that prohibits someone who’s convicted of running for an office,” explained Aziz Huq, a professor of law at the University of Chicago.

Some civil rights groups, however, have sought to get Trump disqualified by pointing to a little-known clause of the Constitution.

Section 3 of the 14th Amendment — the so-called “disqualification clause” — bars people from holding US office, including the presidency, if they “have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof”.

Critics say Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election results would fall under the prohibition against insurrection.

Whether Trump’s candidacy can be barred under the 14th Amendment is currently an issue before the US Supreme Court. Its justices have been asked to weigh in after two states, Colorado and Maine, removed Trump’s name from their primary ballots, citing the insurrection clause.

Yes. In 1920, Socialist Party candidate Eugene V Debs campaigned for president from a federal prison in Georgia. Debs, who was jailed for sedition after challenging a wartime measure that curtailed the freedom of speech, garnered nearly one million votes.

Lyndon LaRouche Jr also ran for president in 1992 from federal prison, where he was serving out a sentence for conspiracy and mail fraud.

But Huq, the University of Chicago professor, said individuals with criminal convictions have historically “not been candidates who have been likely to win or who have been within reach of winning”.

“The Constitution is written on the assumption that the people who run for office will have been selected through some process that weeds out people who have committed alleged felonies in the past,” he told Al Jazeera.

The trials could create a scheduling headache for the former president, who will be required to appear in court.

But everything depends on when the proceedings get under way, as Trump’s legal team has filed multiple motions to delay the cases or dismiss the charges against him outright.

“We don’t know which — if any — of the criminal cases could go to trial before November because there are a number of appellate proceedings seeking to stop them, or stay them,” said Frank Bowman, professor emeritus at the University of Missouri School of Law.

Appeals have already delayed at least one case. Last week, a US District Judge Tanya Chutkan postponed the start of Trump’s federal election interference case in Washington, DC, which had been set for March 4. A new schedule has not been set.

The New York fraud case, meanwhile, is scheduled to begin on March 25 but could also get pushed back.

Both the Democratic and Republican parties have been holding their respective nomination contests — state votes to determine each party’s presidential candidate — since the beginning of the year.

Trump won comfortably in both Iowa and New Hampshire in January, heaping pressure on his last major Republican challenger, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, to drop out of the race.

The next contests are later this month in Nevada, South Carolina and Michigan. More than a dozen states will then hold their primaries in early March on what is known as Super Tuesday.

Republicans will officially choose their candidate at the party convention, set for mid-July in Wisconsin, while Democrats will confirm their nominee — who is almost guaranteed to be President Biden — at an August convention. The general election is on November 5.

“Aside from illness or death, I don’t think there’s anything that could keep Trump off of the ballot in November,” said Green at Temple University.

That’s because Republican Party rules currently don’t include a “mechanism for getting him off the ballot” if he is confirmed as the candidate at July’s convention, he explained.

Meanwhile, nearly all of the delegates who will pick the Republican nominee are what’s known as bound delegates — meaning they are required to vote for a candidate based on the results of their state’s primary and party rules.

“The Republican Party has become increasingly rigorous about getting pledged delegates — no flexibility, no messing around. You win the primary, you win the votes,” Green told Al Jazeera.

In other words, the majority of the Republican delegates at the party convention will be pledged to Trump if he wins most of the state primaries. Green added that it therefore is unlikely those same delegates would pass any rule changes to allow the party to break away from the ex-president should he be convicted.

While Trump could — in theory — drop out of the race after a conviction, he has pledged not to.

Geoff Kabaservice, vice president of political affairs at the Niskanen Center, a centre-right think tank in Washington, DC, said the Republican Party “has gone way too far with Trump at this point for there to be an off-ramp from his candidacy”.

“Absent some act of God, they are stuck with him as their presidential nominee,” Kabaservice said.

The chances are slim.

Even if he were convicted before November, “there’s always some period of time before sentencing”, explained Bowman at the University of Missouri.

Trump’s legal team also would almost certainly appeal any conviction and sentencing decision, thereby delaying the prospect of him spending time behind bars even further.

“Customarily, in white-collar cases, people remain free on bond pending appeal,” Bowman told Al Jazeera. “Would Trump appeal a conviction or a sentence? Of course he would. It seems unlikely a judge would remand him to custody immediately.”

That’s an important question.

A December poll from the New York Times and Siena College showed that 62 percent of Republican primary voters believed Trump should remain the party’s nominee if he wins the most primary votes — even if he is convicted of a crime.

Fifty-four percent of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire also said he would still be fit for the presidency if convicted of a crime, according to exit polling by the Washington Post. That figure jumped to 87 percent among voters who backed Trump in New Hampshire last month.

The former president’s base has overwhelmingly stayed in his corner despite the four criminal indictments, which Trump has denounced as politically motivated “witch hunts”. But that could change with a conviction, said Green.

“I think there would be a slice of people who would take things more seriously at that moment. He would be a convicted felon, and those words have some weight for some voters,” he said.

A January poll by Morning Consult and Bloomberg (PDF) showed that 53 percent of registered voters in key swing states would not vote for the ex-president if he were convicted. Fifty-five percent said they wouldn’t vote for Trump if he were sentenced to prison time.

Even just having to appear in court during the election campaign could affect Trump, said Kabaservice at the Niskanen Centre.

During the Republican primaries, Trump used his legal troubles to fire up his die-hard supporters. He has even appeared in court for civil cases where his presence is otherwise not required, leading some experts to question whether his presence is a campaign tactic.

Kabaservice noted that Trump has used the cases to accuse Democrats of doing “everything in their power to stop him from becoming president again” and reiterate claims that the justice system is rigged against him.

While this strategy may work for the former president’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) backers, it will fail to appeal to more moderate Republicans, independents or even Democrats who may consider voting for him, Kabaservice said.

“The basic problem here for Trump and the Republican Party is that what works for the MAGA faithful doesn’t really play all that well outside of the bubble,” he told Al Jazeera.

The criminal trials will, in effect, not keep him from being the GOP nominee or keep him off the ballot. But they will showcase “Trump’s worst qualities for the segment of the electorate to whom that matters”.

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