#but there are scenarios where there's no winning

[covid-safer-hotties]

also preserved on our archive

By Erica Sloan

These days, it’s tempting to compare COVID-19 with the common cold or flu. It can similarly leave you with a nasty cough, fever, sore throat—the full works of respiratory symptoms. And it’s also become a part of the societal fabric, perhaps something you’ve resigned yourself to catching at least a few times in your life (even if you haven’t already). But let’s not forget: SARS-CoV-2 (the virus responsible for COVID) is still relatively new, and researchers are actively investigating the toll of reinfection on the body. While there are still a lot of unknowns, one thing seems to be increasingly true: Getting COVID again and again is a good deal riskier than repeat hits of its seasonal counterparts.

It turns out, SARS-CoV-2 is more nefarious than these other contagious bugs, and our immune response to it, often larger and longer-lasting. COVID has a better ability to camouflage itself in the body, “and it has the keys to the kingdom in the sense that it can unlock any cell and get in,” says Esther Melamed, PhD, an assistant professor in the department of neurology at Dell Medical School, University of Texas Austin, and the research director of the Post-COVID-19 program at UT Health Austin. That’s because SARS-CoV-2 binds to ACE2 receptors, which exist in cells all over your body, from your heart to your gut to your brain. (By contrast, cold and flu viruses replicate mostly in your respiratory tract.)

It only follows that a bigger threat can trigger an outsize immune response. In some people, the body’s reaction to COVID can turn into a “cytokine storm,” Dr. Melamed tells SELF, which is characterized by an excessive release of inflammatory proteins that can wreak havoc on multiple organ systems—not a common scenario for your garden-variety cold or flu. But even a “mild” case of COVID can throw your immune system into a tizzy as it works to quickly shore up your defenses. And each reinfection is a fresh opportunity for the virus to win the battle.

While you develop some immunity after a COVID infection, it doesn’t just grow with each additional hit. You might be thinking, “Aren’t I more protected against COVID and less likely to have a serious case after having been infected?” Part of that is true, to an extent. In the first couple years after COVID burst onto the scene, reinfections were generally (though not always) milder than a person’s initial bout of the virus. “The way we understand classic immunology is that your body will say to a virus [it’s seen before], ‘Oh, I know how to deal with you, and I’m now going to deal with you in a better way the second time around,’” says Ziyad Al-Aly, PhD, a clinical epidemiologist at Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine and the chief of research and development at the Veterans Affairs St. Louis Health Care System.

But any encounter with COVID can also cause your immune system to “go awry or develop some form of dysfunction,” Dr. Al-Aly tells SELF. Specifically, “immune imprinting” can happen, where, upon a second (or third or fourth) exposure to the virus, your immune cells launch the same response as they did for the initial infection, in turn blocking or limiting the development of new antibodies necessary to fight off the current variant that’s stirring up trouble. So, “when you get hit an [additional] time, your immune system may not behave classically,” Dr. Al-Aly says, and could struggle with mounting a good defense.

Pair that dip in immune efficiency with the fact that your antibody levels also wane with time post-infection, and it’s easy to see how another hit can rock your body in a new way. Indeed, the more time that passes after any given COVID infection, the less of a “competitive advantage” you’ll have against any future one, Richard Moffitt, PhD, an associate professor at Emory University, in Atlanta, tells SELF. His research found that, while people who got sick initially during the delta phase were less likely to get reinfected during the first omicron wave (as compared to folks who were infected in a prior period), that benefit leveled off with following omicron variants.

There’s also the fact that no matter how your immune system has responded to a prior strain (or strains!) of the virus, it could react differently to a new mutation. “We tend to think of COVID as one homogeneous thing, but it’s really not,” Dr. Al-Aly says. So even if your body successfully thwarted one of these intruders in the past, there’s no guarantee it’ll do the same for another, now or in the future, he says.

Getting COVID again and again is especially risky if it previously made you very ill. Dr. Moffitt’s study above also found that the “severity of your first infection is very predictive of the severity of a reinfection,” he says. Meaning, you’re more likely to have a severe case of COVID—for instance, requiring hospitalization or intensive care, such as ventilation—when reinfected if you had a rough go of it the first time around.

It’s possible that some folks are more prone to an off-kilter immune response to the virus, which could then happen consistently with reinfections. The antibodies created in people who’ve had severe cases “may not function as well as those in folks who’ve had mild infections or were able to fight the virus off,” Dr. Melamed says. Though researchers don’t fully understand why, some people’s immune systems are also more likely to overreact to COVID (remember the cytokine storm?), which can cause serious symptoms—like fluid in the lungs and shortness of breath—whenever they’re infected.

Being over the age of 65, having a chronic illness or other medical condition, and lacking access to health care have all been shown to spike your risk of serious outcomes with a COVID infection, whether it’s your first or fifth fight with the virus.

But you’re not home free if you’ve only had, say, a brief fever or cough with COVID in the past; Dr. Moffitt points out that a small subset of people in his research who had minor reactions with their initial infection went on to be hospitalized with a repeat hit. The probability of that might be lower, but it’s still a possibility, he says.

Even if you’ve only had “mild” cases, each reinfection strains your body, upping your chances of developing long COVID. A 2022 study led by Dr. Al-Aly found that COVID reinfections also increase your risk of complications across the board, regardless of whether you recovered just fine in the past or got vaccinated. In particular, it showed that reinfection raises the likelihood that you’ll need hospitalization; have heart or lung problems; or experience, among other possible issues, GI, neurological, mental health, or musculoskeletal symptoms. “We use the term ‘cumulative effects,’” Dr. Al-Aly says, “so, multiple hits accrue and then leave the body more vulnerable to all the potential long-term health effects of COVID.”

That doesn’t mean your experience of a second (or third or fourth) infection will necessarily be worse, in and of itself, than what you felt during a prior case. But with each new hit, a fresh batch of the virus seeps into your system, where, even if you have a mild case, it has another chance to trigger any of the longer-term complications above. While the likelihood of getting long COVID (a constellation of symptoms lingering for three months or longer post-infection) is likely greatest after initial infection, “The bottom line is, people are still getting diagnosed with long COVID after reinfection,” Dr. Moffitt says.

Researchers don’t totally know why one person might deal with lasting health effects over another, but it seems that, in some folks, the immune system misfires, generating not only antibodies to attack the virus but also autoantibodies that go after the body’s own healthy cells, Dr. Al-Aly says. This may be one reason why COVID has been linked to the onset of autoimmune conditions like psoriasis and rheumatoid arthritis.

A different hypothesis suggests that pieces of the virus could linger in the body, even after a person has seemingly “recovered” (reminder that SARS-CoV-2 is scarily good at weaseling its way into all sorts of cells). “Maybe the first time, your immune system was able to fully clear it, but the second time, it found a way to hang around,” Dr. Al-Aly posits. And a third theory involves your gut microbiome, the community of microbes in your GI tract, including beneficial bacteria. It’s conceivable that “when we get sick with COVID, these bacteria do, too, and perhaps they recover [on initial infection], but not on the second or third hit,” he says, throwing off your balance of good-to-bad gut bugs (which can impact your health in all sorts of ways).

Another unnerving possibility: The shock to your system triggered by COVID may “wake up” a latent (a.k.a. dormant) virus or two lurking in your body, Dr. Melamed says. We all carry anywhere from eight to 12 of these undetected bugs at a time—things like Epstein-Barr, varicella-zoster (which causes chickenpox and shingles), and herpes simplex. And research suggests their reactivation could be a contributing factor in long COVID. Separately, the systemic inflammation often created by COVID may spark the onset of high blood pressure and increased clotting (which can up your risk of stroke and pulmonary embolism), as well as type 2 diabetes, Dr. Melamed says.

There’s no guarantee that any given COVID infection snowballs into something debilitating, but each hit is like another round of Russian roulette, Dr. Al-Aly says. From a sheer numbers standpoint, the more times you play a game with the possibility of a negative outcome, the greater your chances are of that bad result occurring. And because every COVID case has at least some potential to leave you very ill or dealing with a host of persistent symptoms, why take the risk any more times than you need to?

Bottom line: You should do your best to avoid COVID reinfection and bolster your defenses against the virus. At this stage of the pandemic’s progression, it’s not realistic to suggest you can avoid any exposure to the virus, given that societal protections against its spread have been rolled back. But what you should do is take some common-sense precautions, which can help you avoid any contagious respiratory virus. (A cold or the flu may not pose as many potential health risks as COVID, but being sick is still not fun!)

It’s a good idea to wear a mask when you’re in a crowded environment (especially indoors), choose well-ventilated or outdoor spaces for group hangouts, and test for COVID if you have cold or flu-like symptoms, Dr. Al-Aly says. If you do get infected, talk to your doctor about whether your personal risk of a severe case is enough to qualify for a Paxlovid prescription (which you need to take within the first five days of symptoms for it to be effective).

The other important thing you should do is get the updated COVID vaccine (the 2024-2025 formula was recently approved and released). Unlike getting reinfected, the vaccine triggers “a very targeted immune response…because it’s [made with] a specific tiny part of the virus,” Dr. Melamed says. Meaning, you get the immune benefit of a little exposure without the potential of your whole system going haywire. Getting the current shot also ensures you restore any protection that has waned since you received a prior jab and that you have an effective shield against the dominant circulating strains. Plus, research shows that being vaccinated doesn’t just lower your chances of catching the virus; it also reduces your risk of having a severe case or winding up with long COVID if you do get it.

So, too, can the deceivingly simple act of keeping up with healthy habits—like exercising regularly, eating nutritious foods, and clocking quality sleep. Maintaining this kind of lifestyle can help you stave off other health issues that could increase your risk of harm from COVID, Harlan Krumholz, PhD, a cardiologist at Yale University and founder of the Yale Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation (CORE), tells SELF. “Given that we will be repetitively exposed to the virus, the best investments we can make are in our baseline health,” he says.

Doing any (or all!) of the above is a big act of compassion for yourself, the people you love, and your greater community. “For the average person, it’s like, ‘Oh, COVID is gone,’ but they’re just not seeing the impact,” Dr. Al-Aly says, noting the invisibility of long COVID symptoms like disorienting brain fog and crushing fatigue. The truth is, in plenty of people, just one more infection could be the difference between living their best life and facing a devastating chronic condition.

[spockandawe]

Oh man. Guys, I'm obsessed with 'I Became A God In A Horror Game.' I'm so into it that I'm having trouble catching up to the translation, because I'm so tense with the stakes and afraid for it to be over. Honestly, I opened it expecting some mindless power leveling fun, and instead it's just STUFFED with layers and memorable imagery, all with a protagonist with such a fun personality to fit into one of these infinite flow plots. And an INCREDIBLY aesthetic love interest, my god.

Now, the question of how to pitch this book without spoiling it is something I've been wrestling with, without a good answer. The plot is essentially that Bai Liu is a laid off horror video game developer, and when he stops caring about life or death as a result, he enters the game world, where competitors enter horror video game scenarios and fight to win, or just survive. Bai Liu's job gives him an edge, and his calculating, risk tolerant personality gives him more! The love interest makes an appearance in the first of these scenarios, a game that's almost a cross between shadow over innsmouth and the weeping angels, and at first I worried he would be... an accessory to the plot, not really linked to the STORY. I was extremely wrong! But it's hard to say more, and around 140 chapters in, I started losing my MIND for reasons I definitely won't spoil.

But BOY is it fun to draw art for him. I thought about finishing the rose arc to see if there were any more references I could fit in, but I think that would be pushing it with teeny details in the low light, hahaha. I've got to have that pieta, that's very obvious, and the siren king is here. The state of their bodies could be more of a focus in a different piece of art, but I'm still adapting to procreate, and I already had a concept here. The doll was a must, I realized that the scattered pages were PERFECT to fill the water below, and the last little detail that occurred to me was to fit a hint of fire into their reflections below. This was very fun! If this is what entices me to draw again, oh boy, expect to see more of it. And read this book, it's so, so good!!

[casscainmainly]

Okay but do you think if have to, cass would let someone else die for someone else? Like for example, save a killer (joker perhaps) or an innocent person (maybe even someone she cares about) in a life or death situation??

And second, do you think cas would let David Cain die??

Interesting questions! I'll answer the easier question first: no, Cass would not let David Cain die. Even if we don't consider New 52 Cass canon (in which she was clearly devastated at Cain's death), she would never let anyone die. It doesn't matter who the person is, to her everyone deserves life. Well, actually, we can just see what happened in Batgirl (2008) #6:

So in any canon, including New 52 and the weirdness of Batgirl (2008), Cass would not let David die.

Your first question is a little more tricky. Cass hasn't been put in too many moral quandaries, and almost none since Batgirl #25. I think Cass would exhaust every possible method to save both parties in any scenario, even if it were Joker vs. an innocent person. But if it was really really down to the wire, like if there was nothing else to be done - I think she'd save the innocent person. Saving one person would be better than saving none. It would haunt her, though, and to her it would be akin to being part of another murder.

I'm not sure if there is an example of that kind of moral dilemma for Cass, but it would be super interesting if the new solo explores this stuff!

[steviesbicrisis]

No one:

Not a single soul:

Steve:

Steve: *clears throat*

Steve: DO YOU SERIOUSLY BELIEVE

Steve: THAT I WOULD BE STRAIGHT

Steve: *drag Eddie at the center of the stage*

Steve: *points at eddie* IN THIS ECONOMY???

Eddie: *smug as fuck*

Robin: *groans, in the audience* this is the fifth time this week

Dustin: *exhausted, in the audience* can we go home now?

[hoofpeet]

I know Gligar is supposed to be a vampire bat but uhm. What if it was a sugarglider

[myrmica]

its so funny that all minute—the guy who once upon a time hoped to redeem zam—'s team has accomplished is getting him to consider giving up his remaining honor in order to match the level they're playing on ?

[danwhobrowses]

For anyone else who is gonna struggle surviving the next 3 weeks with the angsty and tense situation of Callowmoore here's a few things from the last 2 episodes that I feel were underrated and will assist in trying to keep me sane/emotionally stable: - Matching messed up hands built for holding - Fearne nervously playing with her hair as she approaches Ashton - Ashton wanted Fearne to be either the last thing they saw if they died or the first thing they saw when they succeeded - Fearne's admittance corroborates Ashley's 4SD revelation that Fearne is in love with someone in the party but doesn't know how to process the emotions - Fearne wanted Ashton to be happy, while Ashton wanted to feel whole so they would be worthy of the Hells - Ashton twice tried to lead a search for Fearne, and instantly clocking onto Chetney saying he followed Fearne - Fearne making herself look as radiant as possible before giving Ashton the cold shoulder - Ashton only rose to Chetney's provocations until he said 'You hurt Fearne' Use how you will

[tswwwit]

I want a bill whump so bad, if dipper falls in love with bill every time he reincarnates but hes also a little bit different in every reincarnation, could there be one where hes almost entirely replused by bill, or already in love with someone else?

We all love to see that terrible little man struggling! Typically hurting Bill is accomplished via Dipper-death, but this is a neat alternate scenario. You know he's definitely going to start out totally full of himself! Winning his husband back should be easy! Until he realizes he has no idea how he did it in the first place.

[httpiastri]

IM NOT SURE YOURE GOING TO HAVE SOFT THOUGHTS AFTER SEEING THESE….

Completely drenched and so am I 😩😩😩😩

ooooh bestie….. yet again i have written something in my sleep and then fallen asleep the moment i posted it 😩 i genuinely woke up, saw this ask and wondered what you meant by soft thoughts…….. went back to see my last post and suddenly it makes sense lol i almost almost remember writing that…

but i did write this also on an earlier post:

maybe i said that and then forgot about that side of him 😭 my mind was full of this:

but uh…. thank you for the pics 🫶🫶 very nice thing to wake up to in the morning!! we’ve discussed this before but like… the sweaty hair…. pulling my fingers through it….. and like i keep thinking about cupping his face in my hands and wiping away some sweat with my thumbs like u would with tears? and he’s just all smiley and giggley and his cheeks are so rosy and he’s so exhausted he can barely keep his eyes open, but at the same time there’s something so hot about it because you’ve seen him like that before in other settings and you’re sure it’s gonna happen in just a few hours again…..

[fiepige]

if miles and hobie got into a fist fight who would win? (If they had no powers)

oohhh that's a tough one!

Hobie is my guy so I'm obviously biased towards him, but I'll try not to let my biases get in the way of my conclusion too much!

Hobie has the size advantage but since we're saying 'no powers' I think Miles would have a slight strenght advantadge? His build looks more muscular than Hobie's so I'm assuming Miles has more muscle mass compared to him.

But I feel like Hobie would also have more experience when it comes to fighting? We don't know much of ATSV Hobie's background (I'm assuming we're talking ATSV characters here lol) but even with no powers I can't imagine Hobie wouldn't get in a fight with fascists, nazis, police officers etc.

Not saying that Miles haven't been in a fight before, but I feel like Hobie would be way more experienced on that front. (And depending on the context of their fight, Hobie would also know how to fight dirty and not be afraid to use that to gain the upper hand). But then again, Miles' dad is a cop and it'd make sense if he'd taught Miles some moves at some point, so maybe it'd be more even than one would initially assume?

Honestly, Hobie's got size and most likely experience on his side so I'm leaning strongly towards him winning over Miles in a fist fight

(Just look at the height difference here, Hobie would get the upper hand so fast)

Of course there are many factors that could be at play - What are their motivations for the fight? - Did one of them have time to plan the fight? (If Miles somehow managed to catch Hobie by surprise he could increase his odds of winning) - Are they both healthy and well rested? (Hobie's experience with getting into more fights could backfire if he was injured from a previous fight and didn't have time to recover)

(I'm honestly just grasping for straws here to try and make it look less biased towards Hobie but who am I kidding lol) My conclusion is gonna be that Hobie would win the fight in most cases - Place them in an empty room and make them fight and I have no doubt Hobie would come out on top

(though if anyone has any evidence that says otherwise I'd be curious to hear it)

[passionfruitmango]

I am SO excited for this long furby that I am accidentally resurrecting others old long furby posts in the process

[kisakis-boyfriend]

These are just thoughts that have been eating me about Freminet since the afternoon

If we start to think seriously, Freminet has a lot of strength because of how he uses a Claymore so I also think that Lyney does not have the same strength as Freminet since he is not as good but in terms of precision and agility that is why he uses a bow, too. Lynette doesn't have as much strength but she has technique, strength and agility, that's why he uses a light sword

I imagined that Lyney is able to playfully use Freminet's Claymore and almost immediately he falls to his knees to the ground due to the weight of the Claymore, It would be quite funny that Lyney's arms tremble when trying to lift the Claymore, and Lynette would be in the background scolding him for the look he had for wanting to use Freminet's sword

Or that in that game of strength, where both people hold hands and place their elbow on the table and have to lower the hand held on the opposite side, I mean Freminet would immediately beat Lyney

just thoughts about Freminet

You make very good points. Freminet isn't ripped or anything, but unlike some other small characters that use claymores, Freminet isn't using magic or an ability to lift his. That's pure, raw strength.

This reminds me of that scene from Soul Eater where Blackstar attempts to lift Soul in his scythe form and fails miserably hjdhskfj. Lyney is desperately grasping Frem's weapon and the claymore lifts maybe half an inch off of the ground... Lynette is not amused 😅

[2smolbeans]

no cause literally do many times i find myself reading a yandere fic where it’s like… if i was them i would kms. i’m not even suicidal in the slightest but i still immediately default to: damn i’d probably kms

No FR because lets say I have someone who's obessed with me right? They slowly isolate me from peers, violate my boundaries, and eventually keep me hostage and in their control. And lets say I lash out or try to escape, and they decide to escalate "our relationship" even further by chopping off my limbs, torturing me, or ect (whatever the typical yandere does)..And I cannot LEAVE them.

I run to the police and oh what do you know! They don't believe me. Or I escape, only to find that I'm in a location. I don't know where I am without any money or knowledge.. Or hell, the yandere decides to go after my family or lover in that scenario as retribution..Or just basic yandere bullshit...

I mean, death comes for us all, I guess life just decided to cut the line for us shorter than expected. Like fuck it I'm out, I'm not playing this game no more- 😭

[koinotame]

cryinggg you're literally so funny. immediately thought about unwittingly making your yan jealous as they're trying to make you jealous by politely introducing yourself to their new friend... double whammy because you're not upset in the slightest (no biting :(!!) and you touch their friend instead of them (literally shaking their hand). you are not seeing that person ever again x_x

- 💫

you start spending less time with them in an effort to encourage them to spend more time with their newfound friend and they take it as you being jealous but taking it out in a passive aggressive way instead, so now they're stuck between bringing up their 'friend' again with hopes of you getting fed up and giving them their proper punishment or ensuring you never see said person again because you were getting a bit too chummy with them, touching them in front of your poor yan like that. you ask randomly how their friend is doing and :) they decide they can forgo the punishment

[atopvisenyashill]

so if lyanna had lived and Robert had died and Rhaegar had lived..... and yknow what someho so did Elia and her kids

WHAT HAPPENS THEN? your hcs please l love them <3

thank you for the compliment <3

I've essentially answered this one before here and here with the general answer being that Lyanna's best bet is always the rebels winning, and Rhaegar does not have a clean "win" on his side (and also Ned dying makes me sad for Catelyn and Lyanna so I try not to think about that scenario lmao). Since you didn't say Ned dies, let's get more specific and also I’m just gonna make some executive decisions in a few places here-

Rhaegar kills Robert at the Trident, the Northern host breaks and runs for the hills to regroup. The nearest castle to the Ruby Ford is Harrenhal and while the Whents are friends to Rhaegar they are also related to the Tullys. I can't recall any specific information on what the Whents were doing during the war but I do wonder if there's a kind of Dayne situation going on here ie Oswell is still loyal to Rhaegar and the rest of the Whents are like "dude what is your problem he kidnapped a teenager." I think Ned probably takes what's left of his host to Harrenhal to regroup and figure out what the hell he does from here.

Again, Catelyn is at Riverrun, pregnant (just about to give birth even? the timeline here is a little fuzzy) and the moment she hears the Trident didn't go their way, she's gearing up for a siege. Probably she's trying to figure out how to get into contact with Jon Arryn, Ned, Hoster, and the Blackfish, if only to get an idea of where their heads are.

Poor Stannis and Renly are at Storm's End, increasingly desperate and increasingly stubborn. Stannis is now Lord of Storm's End and technically speaking, Robert’s claim to kingship has fallen to him.

Rhaegar imo doesn't bother following anyone after the battle though, he goes straight back to the capital to deal with his father. He only came out of hiding because the Kingsguard came to get him and said "hey your dad has Elia and the kids at King's Landing, they're all in serious trouble." Still likely imo that Jaime has killed Aerys (he was planning on blowing up KL long before Tywin showed up at the gates) so Rhaegar is now King.

Now king...and facing three separate sieges. Regardless of the Westerlands joining Rhaegar, the Stormlands, the North, the Vale, and the Riverlands are still in open rebellion, and he's got a hysterical teenaged Kingslayer who his wife is insisting be spared.

If Rhaegar wants to seem different from his father, he might send terms: something like Ned (probably Stannis too) goes to the Wall, Renly becomes Lord of Storm's End, Lyanna is given equal status to Elia as a Queen, Catelyn and Ned's kid can be Lord of Winterfell. But the thing is - Dorne is gonna be pissed off at the idea of Lyanna being an equal Queen, they will want Jon to stay a bastard and probably raised not just far away from Lyanna but far away from King's Landing as well. Ned, Stannis, and Catelyn are not stupid enough to accept those terms though - they will all assume it’s a trap and they’ll be brutally tortured to death like Rickard, Brandon, and the others.

I’m not super great with “rhaegar lives” aus simply bc i do not like that man and i just want Jaime to get stab happy and kill him too lmao and also. Like ultimately what i WANT to happen is for Ned to find Lyanna, take her and Jon North, and the rest of Westeros to give Rhaegar the middle finger. If Ned lives, that might be possible but….

But I think if enough of the Northern host (and whatever of the rest of them is left) can get to Harrenhal, they can probably coordinate with Riverrun, the North, and the Vale as well. HOWEVER. The Iron Islands are likely to start raiding, and the Westermen are likely to try to sack several Riverlands towns as they march. I don’t think it’s a far stretch to say the rebels manage to take back most of the major castles in the Riverlands while Rhaegar is dealing with the capital but more likely, I think everyone just settles in for a long and hopeless siege.

And MEANWHILE while Ned is figuring out what to do in the Riverlands…well the thing is we don’t know who told him about Lyanna, or why, or when. My personal theory is Ashara said something but we don’t know! If Ned is perhaps somewhere easier to locate than just running his ass to Storm’s End, does he get the message sooner? Make a play to get to Lyanna but brings an entire host with him to take the Tower?

Idk I’m not really great at like ~battle~ stuff and that’s essentially what it comes down to if Robert dies - Can Ned outsmart Rhaegar? Ned is smarter than that man but he just lost a lot of his men, basically every leader of his rebellion, and he still doesn’t know where Lyanna is. At the same time, while the Dornish host is heavily depleted, the Westerlands and the Reach are mostly untouched. There’s the Vale, and considering Bronze Yohn wanted to side with Robb, it’s possible he wants to continue fighting with Ned and i’m assuming it’s mostly the Royce’s calling the shots right now with basically every Arryn dead and Harry the Heir like a literal toddler. The issue is basically just strategy vs brute force.

But. idk okay let’s just agree that Ned manages to get the Vale to back him up and he starts to take back most of the Riverlands, then marches on the Tower early to save Lyanna. Smart thing is to take some guys, grab Lyanna, and book it back out of Dorne. Safest to set her in Riverrun with Catelyn, resupply, then keep fighting (would it be easier to set up with Riverrun as the main base of operations? I suppose it depends on how the fighting with the rest of the Dornish faction and the Westerlands go). Maybe he tries to force Rhaegar to terms by being like -well now i’ve got my sister and your fucking baby so give me something good and i’ll calm down. But what terms can possibly end the fighting at this point?

Rhaegar will not give up his crown, he's convinced the prince will come from his line

Ned is not handing over Lyanna

Dorne will not accept Elia and Lyanna as co queens

Stannis and Renly are still starving at Storm’s End

It’s an awful stalemate. No one will give in. The fighting will continue. It has to. If Ned gives in, he’s thinking he’s getting burned alive. If Rhaegar gives in, he very likely loses his crown and maybe his head. Rhaegar has all these lofty ideals about being a good king and it’s hard to keep insisting on that while he’s fighting this war when Ned had a VERY VALID reason to rebel. I THINK finding out Jon is a boy might force Rhaegar to come to the table. His prophecy was wrong, his line is not chosen, and he’s just destroyed the realm for nothing. But he’s also got Tywin in his ear telling him that it’s better to be feared than laughed at, and he’s lost most of the Kingsguard who were probably the ones keeping him mostly centered before he lost it over Lyanna. BUT. He also has his MOTHER. He has ELIA. He has his other fucking kids to think about.

I don’t know that anything could convince Ned to come to the table here if he’s offered anything less than a full pardon and the ability to take everyone back home. He agrees to the Wall at the end AGOT only because of Sansa - otherwise he was perfectly willing to go to the block swearing Joffrey is no true king and he'd do it here too. I think it’s the same scenario as the end of the war of five kings - these pockets of rebellion keep cropping up until the seven kingdoms are forced to split or Rhaegar just takes Tywin’s advice and utterly decimates what’s left is the rebellion. But again. Elia and Rhaella!

Probably maybe idk this stalemate ends in splitting the kingdoms but the thing is, while the Riverlands, Vale, and North are all grouped together, the Stormlands are on the opposite side of the Crownlands. So you can't really split it up. So probably maybe idk either Rhaegar makes some incredible concessions here or Ned loses his head eventually.

[transingthoseformers]

you raise a good and sad point about the many eggs thing but I like to think of it as a kind of queen ant situation - very few can produce eggs at all and there are long intervals between clutches, so they lay a ton, and the rest of the "colony" takes care of them. it's expected for all of them to survive!

Ooo gotcha fair fair

That's gotta create interesting results though