#bond market outlook

[sharemarketinsider]

Market Turbulence and Key Earnings Reports Shape Investor Sentiment Amid Global Uncertainty

[chemicalsmaterialsnews]

Bonding Excellence: Navigating Trends in the Epoxy Adhesive Market

Adhesives are essential products that are often overlooked. They’re noticed, until they fail. If your supports aren’t correctly fused, it could bring about disjointed parts, damaged equipment, and worn-out piping systems.

So, this blog has the ins and outs of epoxy adhesives, which can help you secure the pipe supports with confidence.

What Is an Epoxy Adhesive?

From time-to-time epoxy adhesives are confused with bonding products like glue. However, they’re far more complex than most adhesives. These are often called structural adhesives These terms make their role clearer: They’re high-performance adhesives meant for applications calling for powerful bonding, such as aircraft, automobiles, aerospace technology, or heavy process piping systems.

Uses of Epoxy Adhesives Coming to process piping systems, the epoxy adhesives have a vital role to play. These systems frequently require to join unlike materials together, like composite pipe shoes and metal piping. Besides, adhesives need to hold structures together in heavy vibrations, high pressure, and corrosive environments.

An area where epoxy adhesives have advantage is when you’re including pipe supports like wear pads, pipe shoes, and Flat Plates. That’s since this mixture enables to install without welding.

Benefits of Epoxy Adhesives? • By safeguarding pipes or adding wear pads to the system, raw piping can be insulated. Suddenly, you’ve protected pipes from metal-on-metal contact deprived of the high cost of specialized labor. Also, by eliminating welding, you’ll be evading susceptible spots requiring special heat treatments. • These pipe supports can increase the life of the systems, need to be held together. These adhesives work pretty well since they are sturdy and can stand extreme environments. • An epoxy can also work as a sealant filling open gaps. This guards pipes and supports from corrosion.

Different Kinds of Epoxy Adhesives There are numerous epoxy adhesives, but they can be split into two one-component and two-component

One-Component Adhesives These more often than not come as a single paste. Though, the name can deceive a few. Though they come as only a single physical substance, they still require external elements to start the curing process. That means they require moisture, heat treatment, or special lighting for bonding.

Two-Component Adhesives These require you to blend two elements. When applied properly, the outcome is a powerful bond. Though, since two-part adhesives need mixing, there’s the likelihood for a human error.

What’s the Solution? If you desire to get the paybacks of a two-component adhesive without mixing the right ratio or getting it on the skin, use a static applicator. This loads onto a standard epoxy cartridge and brings a two-part epoxy in a flawless mixing ratio, saving the mess and guesswork that from time to time come with physically mixing two-component epoxies.

Due to the increasing demand for these adhesives in numerous industries, the total value of the epoxy adhesives will reach $13,484 million by 2030.

[cmipooja]

Bond Breaker Market Is Estimated To Witness High Growth Owing To Increasing Construction Activities

The global Bond Breaker Market is estimated to be valued at US$ 1.29 billion in 2023 and is expected to exhibit a CAGR of 7.5% over the forecast period (2023-2030), as highlighted in a new report published by Coherent Market Insights. Market Overview: Bond breakers are materials used in construction to prevent adhesion between surfaces and promote easy separation. They are commonly used in concrete construction to prevent bonding between freshly poured concrete and adjoining surfaces such as formwork, expansion joints, and reinforcement bars. Bond breakers provide advantages such as ease of removal, reducing the risk of damage to the concrete surface, and ensuring proper expansion and contraction of concrete structures. The need for bond breakers is associated with the increasing construction activities globally, especially in regions such as Asia Pacific and the Middle East. Market Key Trends: A key trend in the bond breaker market is the growing adoption of sustainable and eco-friendly products. With the increasing focus on environmental conservation, construction industry players are shifting towards greener alternatives. Eco-friendly bond breakers not only offer the required functionality but also contribute to reducing the carbon footprint of construction projects. Manufacturers are developing bio-based bond breakers that are free from harmful chemicals and provide effective bonding prevention. This trend is driven by regulatory policies promoting sustainable construction practices and the growing awareness among construction professionals about the environmental impact of their projects. As a result, the demand for sustainable bond breakers is expected to witness significant growth over the forecast period. PEST Analysis: Political: There are no major political factors that directly impact the bond breaker market. However, government regulations concerning construction safety and environmental impact may indirectly influence the market. Economic: The bond breaker market is expected to witness high growth during the forecast period, primarily due to the booming construction industry globally. Increasing urbanization, infrastructural development projects, and rising commercial construction activities are driving the demand for bond breakers. Social: The growing awareness about the benefits of using bond breakers in construction projects is a major social factor affecting the market. Bond breakers help in preventing the adhesion of freshly poured concrete to the adjacent surfaces, resulting in better quality and efficiency in construction. Technological: The technological advancements in the manufacturing of bond breakers have significantly improved their performance and durability. The development of eco-friendly and biodegradable bond breakers is also a noteworthy technological trend in the market. Key Takeaways: Market size: The Global Bond Breaker Market Size is expected to witness high growth, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.5% over the forecast period. This growth can be attributed to the increasing demand for bond breakers in the construction industry, especially in developing regions where infrastructural development is at its peak. Regional analysis: Asia Pacific is projected to be the fastest-growing and dominating region in the bond breaker market. The rapid urbanization, increasing population, and infrastructure development initiatives in countries like China and India are driving the demand for bond breakers in the region. Key players: The key players operating in the bond breaker market include Sika AG, BASF SE, Fosroc International Limited, Saint-Gobain Weber, The Euclid Chemical Company, Dayton Superior Corporation, WR Meadows, Specified Technologies Inc, TCC Materials, and EMSEAL Joint Systems Ltd. These companies are actively focusing on product innovation, expanding their distribution network, and strategic collaborations to gain a competitive edge in the market.

[smitharaghu]

Bond Market Outlook

A great way to get a feel for how the bond market is performing is by looking at the spreads. The spreads are the difference between the price of a bond and its coupon, and they can range from around 175 to 250 bps. When looking at the spreads, it's important to remember that past results aren't necessarily predictive of future results.

Municipal bonds

The municipal bond market continues to enjoy strong fundamentals. However, the sector will face some challenges in the year ahead. It is important to consider all factors when investing in municipal bonds.

Municipal revenues have benefited from fiscal stimulus funding from the federal government. This has allowed states and local governments to pay down debt. At the same time, inflation is continuing to rise, a phenomenon that may persist longer than initially anticipated.

Historically, first-time municipal bond defaults have been relatively small. They represent only a small portion of the overall market. However, there are concerns that they may increase in the event of a recession.

First-time muni defaults are largely concentrated in industrial development revenue bonds. Nursing homes are another area that is at risk. Because of their smaller balance sheets, these providers are more likely to be affected.

Inflation and interest rates continue to be major concerns for investors. Although these issues are mainly caused by the Fed's hawkish tone, the risk of a recession could also drive an uptick in defaults.

High-quality bonds

The bond market is one of the largest securities markets in the world. It's also influenced by the health of the companies issuing the bonds and the prevailing interest rate environment.

There are three types of bonds - government bonds, agency bonds, and investment-grade corporate bonds. Each has its own specific characteristics. For example, a five-year bond provides a guarantee that the principal will be returned in five years.

Historically, bond yields have been high, and they'll likely remain this way into the next decade. However, there are some risks associated with investing in this type of asset.

Among the risks are the possibility that the issuer will not make timely payments and that the issue will be downgraded by the credit rating agency. These risks can be avoided if you use a professional investment manager. If you own a portfolio of individual bonds, you should also consider diversification.

The most important consideration when buying bonds is the creditworthiness of the issuer. The creditworthiness is based on the company's track record of paying off debt, and on the future economic outlook. Credit ratings are assigned by rating agencies such as Standard & Poor's (S&P) and Moody's.

IG spreads tend to peak in the 175 to 250bps range

IG is a globally-recognized CFD broker, offering access to a wide range of trading instruments. The company provides investors with competitive spreads, and a wealth of research tools. IG also offers clients a choice of platforms.

IG's proprietary web-based platform is easy to navigate and customizable. It lacks the bells and whistles of other online brokers, but is stable and reliable. IG's platform does not offer guaranteed stop loss orders, and the order interface has three basic types: market, stop loss, and take profit.

IG's customer support is available through live chat when the platform is open, or through toll-free U.K. and U.S. phone numbers. A customer complaint procedure is also available, as well as a comprehensive FAQ.

In addition to its online platforms, IG offers a mobile app for both Android and iOS. These apps include technical charting and price alerts. They also come with Face and Touch ID security. IG's apps are more robust than the industry-standard MT4 app.

[gem-de-lune]

What would happen if Seunghan returns to Riize?

Finally got around to this one lol sorry it took so long. This was a fun one so hope y'all are pleased.

As always, Disclaimer: I am not God

Deck used: Book of Shadows Vol. 2

How would Riize's popularity be affected?

5 of Pentacles + Temperance

If you haven't already seen my read on what SM would be doing upon Seunghan's return please go read that- it's the post right before this one. I also pulled Temperance there.

There is a clear story here that just has to do with waiting out hard times. It is not that the group will NOT be popular- it's that there will be some negativity floating around for a bit. There will be some backlash of course upon Seunghan's return. This may be initially difficult for fans and for Riize. But it is not going to really effect them in the long term and it is not going to effect anything else other than some social implications. With time, patience, and effort to positively market the group as 7 again, it too, shall pass. The Temperance card shows this.

How will they generally be affected?

Knave of Wands + Knight of Wands

They've gone against what some crazy people wanted. Although their numbers aren't huge- they will still be loud about this. This won't be negative press- just general bigotry. But with this is also the chance to take action and tame the rowdies. A lot of fresh and new things will come from Seunghan's return which means new fans and filtering out the negativity- honestly a lot faster than anticipated altogether. I think that because of this choice, a lot of ppl who were just casual listeners will be flocking. They will be able to accomplish a lot of shared aspirations and turn dreams into reality with Seunghan in the group.

How would they be monetarily affected?

8 of Wands

Very very good. Okay so I see with this in combination with the previous pull, there's going to be a lot of new opportunities that will bring in a lot of money with Seunghan in the group. Sales will not only be up- but we are talking shows that SM didn't have the connection to get their artists on before, or even western collabs where an artist that heard about the drama wants to support the 7 members with a song or something. In general just a lot of eyes and attention towards new endeavors that will lead to a lot of abundance ✨️

How will Riize as a group be affected?

The Chariot

The bros have their bro back. It's gonna feel like a crazy chaotic road trip. They overcome all the bumps in the roach they may face together and keep moving forward endlessly. They are strong, determined, and loyal together. This is really good for a group dynamic. They are all on the same wavelength when it comes to their group. They all have a role to play, and they always get it done. Very good outlook.

Final Notes:

I think he should be in the group. lol what abt yall?

Whew, lots of reads today. I hope you guys are doing well. I may do some other asks tmw, but it'll be in the evening.

If you have not seen it already, here is the read on what would happen if he were not back in the group:

Love you guys- thanks so much for the support and kind words, I am glad yall enjoy these readings.

Stay happy and healthy. Take breaks if needed. I think tmw i am wanting to do a read on further things we could do to support the protest and boycott. Lmk if y'all would like to see this.

Riize is 7!!

[stirringwinds]

i know people talk a lot about the us and UK special relationship but it kind of fell after the Suez and France kind of sneakily stole it didn't he? I mean did the same before the wars

thanks for the ask! ngl, as a londoner, i've always personally felt the representation of the "Special Relationship" as this mega-close and affectionate dynamic is kind of...an un-holistic understanding of the UK or England, as well as of the United States. don't get me wrong, it's one of their most important relationships and there's a lot of deep history there—my issue is mostly with rose-tinted interpretations underpinning it and what biases they showcase. these were heavily biased by Churchill's (imperialist) gaze of envisioning Anglo-American affinity and leadership on the world stage. this interpretation quite significantly downplayed the rivalry, power struggles, conflicts and differences that historians existed between the US and the British Empire, or how US presidents tended to see it in far less majestic terms. like, Churchill rather downplays FDR's vehement disagreements with him over the issue of Indian independence lol or decolonisation (because the US was eyeing the world as a chessboard, re: new markets and also whether or not support for the old colonial power would be a bulwark against or risk soviet or other communist influence).

so, while you're right that Suez was a pretty low moment in US-Britain relations due to the US being pissed at Britain and France jeopardising its ostensible goal of swaying Egypt away from the Soviet sphere of influence (sidenote: Egypt itself was trying to navigate the mess of the Cold War rivalry to secure its interests), i don't really see it as "falling" after Suez or stolen by France simply because that dynamic Churchill painted a picture of never really existed in that way. plus, Europe (France included) and the ex-colonies of the British Empire (like the dominions and India) weighed heavily on British foreign policy/its national outlook too; i tend to find an overemphasis on a rose-tinted view of the "Special Relationship" leads to a lot of US-centrism that shuts out this understanding. to me, Arthur and Alfred's relationship is most interesting when we situate them properly amidst all these other imperial and geopolitical cross-currents. of which Francis is an important one, from the time he helped Alfred during the Revolutionary War, to the Entente Cordial, WWI and the post-WWII world of NATO, the EU and so on.

in hetalia-verse, it's one of the reasons I personally headcanon Arthur and Alfred as father and son. their bond is lasting, forged by the blood, steel and saltwater of empire, and all the familial, deep and troubling implications that implies. they are "stuck" with each other in some ways, because post 1945, it's a familial dynamic of the old king and the young, ambitious crown prince who thinks his father is out of time—and out of line. francis never really "steals" anything because he and arthur's relationship is on a very different axes: francis is the neighbour who has been by arthur's side as his enemy, friend, lover, rival in imperial douchebaggery, ally (for better and also for worse, like in suez...)—and everything in between. whereas arthur and alfred have some real patricidal/regicidal, titanomachy-level father-son power struggles going on, mixed in with this dysfunctional level of understanding and them also colluding together shadily (you are different from him in many ways, there are many things he'll never understand about you—but you are your father's son, alfred; to be powerful is to be tainted).

so in conclusion, i see alfred-arthur and arthur-francis as both very important foundational dynamics crucial to arthur's character, but conceptualised differently from that understanding of the "special relationship" because they're two different kinds of relationships, even if there is the overlapping dynamic of power, rivalry and empire. ✌🏼

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

Market concerns over fiscal policy deepen, pushing long-term interest rates up in Brazil

Worries about public debt sustainability drive future rates to their highest level since March 2023

Pessimism among financial agents regarding the government’s fiscal policy has deepened recently, leading to widespread stress in the interest rate market. Medium- and long-term future rates, typically more sensitive to risk perceptions, have surged to around 13%, prompting the National Treasury to issue fixed-rate bonds at rates above this threshold. This shift reflects growing investor skepticism about the government’s ability to achieve the fiscal adjustment deemed necessary to stabilize the debt trajectory.

Last week brought a new wave of asset price deterioration in Brazil, particularly affecting the yield curve. On Friday, Brazil’s interbank benchmark rate, known as CDI, for January 2030 climbed to 13% for the first time since March 2023. A day earlier, the National Treasury issued long-term fixed-rate securities (LTNs) at rates exceeding 13%, underscoring the heightened risk perception that has also weighed on the exchange rate, with the FX rate again crossing the R$5.70-per-dollar mark.

Market participants acknowledge the widespread pessimism, noting that even if the government meets its primary result targets for this year and the next, high spending levels—some of which fall outside the fiscal framework—and parafiscal stimulus measures contribute to a deteriorating outlook. This sentiment is evident in the elevated prices of domestic assets.

Pedro Dreux, macro manager and partner at Occam, describes the repricing of risk premiums as “unquestionable,” attributing it to the government’s fiscal policy stance. He notes that while the market initially gave the government the benefit of the doubt, believing in a credible adjustment through the fiscal framework, the continued rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio and preference for increased spending have eroded confidence.

Continue reading.

[chemicalresearchnews]

Exploring the Growth Potential of the Construction Adhesive Tapes Industry: Key Trends and Innovations Driving the Market

The construction adhesive tapes industry has been gaining significant momentum in recent years, becoming an essential component in modern construction projects. From residential buildings to large-scale infrastructure, adhesive tapes are revolutionizing how structures are assembled, sealed, and protected. In this blog, we’ll explore the factors driving the industry's growth, the latest innovations, and the benefits that construction adhesive tapes offer over traditional bonding methods.

1. Market Growth and Demand Drivers

The global construction adhesive tapes market is expanding rapidly, driven by rising demand for more efficient, cost-effective, and sustainable construction materials. Factors contributing to the market's growth include:

Increased construction activities in developing regions

A growing emphasis on sustainable and green building practices

The need for faster, labor-saving solutions on construction sites

Technological advancements in adhesive formulation, ensuring stronger and more durable bonds

2. Types of Construction Adhesive Tapes

Adhesive tapes in the construction industry come in a variety of forms, each designed for specific applications. Some of the most popular types include:

Duct tapes: Known for their versatility and strength in temporary bonding.

Double-sided tapes: Ideal for permanent bonding in installations like flooring or wall paneling.

Foil tapes: Used in HVAC applications, offering excellent resistance to temperature and moisture.

Masking tapes: Perfect for precise painting and surface protection.

Each type serves a critical function, whether it's sealing, joining, or protecting surfaces.

Download PDF Brochure: https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/pdfdownloadNew.asp?id=222451392

3. Key Innovations in the Industry

Recent developments in the construction adhesive tapes industry have focused on improving adhesion strength, environmental resistance, and ease of application. Some innovations include:

Heat-resistant and waterproof tapes for extreme conditions

Low-VOC (volatile organic compound) adhesives that contribute to healthier building environments

Eco-friendly options using recyclable materials and biodegradable adhesives

Smart tapes that change color to indicate correct application or curing

These advancements ensure that adhesive tapes not only perform better but also contribute to more sustainable building practices.

4. Benefits Over Traditional Bonding Methods

Compared to conventional fastening systems like nails, screws, or liquid adhesives, construction adhesive tapes offer several advantages:

Quick application: Tapes require minimal equipment and can be applied faster than traditional methods.

Clean worksite: Adhesive tapes eliminate the need for liquid adhesives, reducing mess and cleanup time.

Strong and flexible bonding: Tapes provide long-lasting bonds that can withstand the stresses of construction environments.

Minimal damage to materials: Tapes cause less structural damage compared to drilling or nailing into surfaces.

These benefits are making adhesive tapes the go-to choice for many contractors and builders.

5. Future Outlook for the Industry

As construction projects continue to evolve with advancements in building materials and methods, the construction adhesive tapes industry is poised for continued growth. Innovations like smart adhesives, sustainable materials, and more specialized tapes tailored for unique construction needs will play a vital role in the industry's future. Moreover, as green building regulations become stricter, the demand for eco-friendly adhesive solutions will continue to rise.

[neatfrog]

Vince

Character info below:

Vince was created a little while after Petra and Boldizsár. Originally I had him as a member of the Gunners, but as the character developed I began to see him as more of a liaison (making deals, selling stolen goods/chems, etc). He has connections all over the Wasteland, and is on amicable terms with many different factions including raiders (since he’s their drug supplier)

He’s a smooth talker who has a way of getting himself out of situations that he 100% caused on his own. He likes making money, and dresses himself up to look as though he has a lot of it.

He was found alone as a young child by the Brotherhood, who raised him and taught him skills such as scouting and using firearms. He became fairly talented in combat, but he largely prefers to avoid physical fights. He resented the Brotherhood and its militaristic practices, failing to form any meaningful bonds with his fellow members.

At 14, he left the Brotherhood and came to the Commonwealth from the DC Wasteland. In the early days, he struggled with little resources or acquaintances. He reluctantly began accepting freelance merc jobs/assassinations, and had few scruples about who or what the target was. As he built up a reputation, he was eventually able to branch out into several professions such as chem dealing and other black market activities. After some years, he managed to make a comfortable living.

(He is 22 during the events of Fallout 4)

Traits/Behaviors

He frequently puts on a charm or friendly attitude in order to get people to let their guard down, or otherwise obtain something to his benefit

Big shady car salesman vibes

His instinct is self-preservation, and he can be an outright coward in situations that become too dangerous. He’s very reluctant to put his life on the line for any purpose, and isn’t hesitant to dip out when things look like they’re going south

His main goal with any faction is to make himself too useful to kill. He maintains neutrality in any disputes, or plays both sides when possible (and not life-threatening)

Sometimes uses disguises when necessary, and is good at acting/pretending

Charisma 10

Endurance 4

Has been a loner most of his life and doesn’t bother trying to get close to people. He would claim he doesn’t see the point, and that to him other people tend to be burdens (ties in to the self-preservation instinct)

Copes with awkward or difficult situations with (sometimes inappropriate) humor

Chronic liar

Weapons wise, prefers melee (bat, knife) or a 10mm pistol (silenced when needed)

Outside of the suits, he has terrible fashion sense

Indulges in chems semi-frequently, but not to the point of debilitating dependency

Rarely feels guilt for things, and if necessary will convince himself however he needs to that something was not his fault

Fear of heights and mutant hounds

Prefers small, hidden places to live/sleep in (bonus points if underground), and doesn’t have any specific domicile. He travels around often and has various hideaways across the Commonwealth.

Very good at making/setting traps, and most of his hidey-holes are heavily booby-trapped (he is very paranoid in this regard)

Mommy issues (specifically a weakness for any woman that dotes on or cares for him in a nurturing/motherly way)

Awkward with physical affection, as it isn’t something he’s ever really received or given. Romance is a foreign concept to him

Isn’t picky about what gender he sleeps with, but doesn’t seek out any serious or long-term relationships

Developing feelings for or starting to care about anyone deeply terrifies him

Dislikes physical labor and will avoid it by any means possible

If sufficiently inebriated and pressed enough about it, his true outlook on life is revealed to be very bleak and nihilistic (he compensates by seeking out pleasure and enjoyment of any kind in order to ignore reality)

If asked about the scar on his nose, he makes up a different story every time (the truth is he probably just walked into a door or something)

He and Petra frequently argue/fight, mostly due to how alike they both are

Affectionately referred to (by me and my spouse) as “the rat boy” or “weasel bastard”

[unpluggedfinancial]

The Slowdown in US Job Growth and Rising Bankruptcies: Implications and Outlook

Recent reports indicate a sharp slowdown in US job growth, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. This trend, coupled with a record high in bankruptcies, signals deeper economic challenges. As the Federal Reserve considers cutting interest rates in September, if not sooner, it's crucial to understand the implications for the economy and personal finance.

The slowdown in job growth reflects a cautious approach by businesses in response to economic uncertainties. This trend, combined with a rising unemployment rate, signals potential difficulties ahead for many individuals seeking employment. Businesses are hesitant to expand their workforce amidst uncertain economic conditions, and technological advances reduce the need for human labor in certain sectors. Increased global competition also leads to cost-cutting measures, including hiring freezes or layoffs.

Bankruptcies have surged to a record high, driven by factors such as persistent inflation, high interest rates, and ongoing supply chain disruptions. Rising costs of goods and services reduce profit margins for businesses and disposable income for consumers. Higher borrowing costs make it more difficult for businesses to finance operations and growth, leading to financial distress. Disruptions in the supply chain can lead to shortages and increased costs, further straining business finances.

In response to these economic challenges, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September to stimulate economic activity. Lowering interest rates can make borrowing cheaper, potentially boosting investment and spending. The anticipated rate cut aims to encourage borrowing by making loans more affordable for businesses and consumers, boosting economic growth by increasing spending and investment, and managing inflation by stimulating economic activity and preventing deflationary pressures.

Amidst these economic uncertainties, Bitcoin presents itself as a hedge against traditional market volatility. Its decentralized nature and limited supply make it an attractive option for preserving value. Bitcoin operates independently of central banks and government policies, providing a hedge against political and economic instability. With a capped supply of 21 million coins, Bitcoin is immune to inflationary pressures caused by excessive money printing. Bitcoin's growing acceptance as a digital store of value makes it a viable alternative to traditional assets like gold.

When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, it often acts as a catalyst for Bitcoin's price. Historically, lower interest rates have led to increased liquidity in the financial system, which can drive investment into alternative assets like Bitcoin. Lower interest rates increase the money supply, providing more capital for investment in assets like Bitcoin. With traditional savings and bonds offering lower returns, investors seek higher returns in alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies. As interest rates drop and the money supply increases, concerns about inflation drive investors to assets like Bitcoin that are perceived as inflation-resistant.

For individuals, it is crucial to diversify investments, enhance skills, and stay informed about market trends. Embracing digital currencies like Bitcoin can provide a safeguard against economic downturns and currency devaluation. Spread investments across various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, real estate, and cryptocurrencies, to mitigate risk. Continuously update skills and knowledge to remain competitive in the job market and adapt to changing economic conditions. Regularly monitor economic indicators, market trends, and policy changes to make informed financial decisions.

Additionally, adopting a strategy of Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) into Bitcoin and buying the dips can be highly beneficial. DCA involves investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of the asset's price. This strategy reduces the impact of market volatility and can lead to a lower average cost per Bitcoin over time. Buying the dips, or purchasing Bitcoin when its price drops, can also enhance returns by taking advantage of temporary price declines.

The combination of slowing job growth, rising bankruptcies, and potential interest rate cuts underscores the need for proactive financial planning. By understanding these trends and exploring alternative investment options like Bitcoin, individuals can better prepare for the economic uncertainties ahead. Embracing strategies like DCA and buying the dips can further enhance financial resilience and long-term growth prospects.

Take Action Towards Financial Independence

If this article has sparked your interest in the transformative potential of Bitcoin, there's so much more to explore! Dive deeper into the world of financial independence and revolutionize your understanding of money by following my blog and subscribing to my YouTube channel.

🌐 Blog: Unplugged Financial Blog Stay updated with insightful articles, detailed analyses, and practical advice on navigating the evolving financial landscape. Learn about the history of money, the flaws in our current financial systems, and how Bitcoin can offer a path to a more secure and independent financial future.

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[jeffhirsch]

Super Boom Spring Break Easter Sale!

Few at Dow 10,000 believed me in May 2010 when I forecasted a 500+% market rise that would put DJIA at 38,820 by the year 2025 in my Almanac Investor Newsletter. My 2011 book Super Boom took a deeper dive into the history and analysis of this groundbreaking forecast and the iconic market cycle and pattern that it’s based on. Now that Dow 38,820 has come true, what’s next? AI is clearly the culturally enabling, paradigm-shifting technology I predicted would drive the next phase of this generational Super Boom. Come find out what I expect to happen next. Get my latest outlook on how and why the AI Super Boom will drive the economy full steam ahead and the market higher and higher.

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MoneyShow Easter Sale

Come down to Miami for spring break and join me in person at MoneyShow’s Investment Masters Symposium – The Big Money Pivot – East. April 10-12, 2024, at the Hyatt Regency Miami. They have a special Easter Sale this weekend! Join us for 3 days filled with market education from the nation’s top experts on stocks, bonds, real estate, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, technology, energy, & more. Use $99 Standard Pass Coupon Code HOP99

Register here to join:

https://www.miamisymposium.com/speakers/ed8d429050d5486abc818182ac141048/jeffrey-hirsch/?scode=062467

Rally Respite After Big Best Six Months Gains

Monday is the beginning of the last month of the “Best Six Months (BSM)” (November-April) for the Dow and S&P 500 – and what a banner one it’s been so far. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 9, 2023, through the close on March 28, 2024, DJIA is up 18.46% and S&P 500 is up 21.19% – more than double the historical average BSM gains. Our Best Six Months Seasonal MACD Sell Signal can trigger anytime on or after the first trading day of April, which is Monday April 1st this year. NASDAQ’s Best 8 Months end in June, which is up 21.47% since our buy signal, not quite double the average but give it time.

The big rewards we have reaped this Best Six Months and year-to-date so far have not left much on the table until later this year. Risks are more elevated now. Sentiment continues to run high. Valuations are extended. Geopolitical tensions have not eased. And persistent inflation pressures have the Fed in no rush to cut rates. As the election campaign rhetoric heats up and the Best Six Months comes to a close be prepared to shift to a more cautious stance when we issue our Best Six Months Seasonal MACD Sell Signal. We do not expect a bear market or major correction. We do not Sell in May and go away. We sell some things, tighten stops and consider defensive positions if warranted.

So sign up today to receive my Best Six Months Seasonal MACD Sell Signal as soon as it triggers!

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[mariacallous]

Buoyed by a wave of buying from overseas, including the stamp of approval from legendary investor Warren Buffett, Japan’s economic outlook is brightening, deflationary concerns are dissipating, and the stock market is on a climb that could take it above its all-time record highs. It only took 33 years.

On Dec. 30, 1989, Japan’s premier market index, the Nikkei 225, closed at 38,915.87, capping a year that saw a 29 percent rise and an amazing 15-year climb that helped to put Japan at the center of the global economic map. But in 1990, it fell 39 percent, marking what is now known as the end of the so-called bubble economy. The sharp fall that year was far from the end. Despite numerous attempted rallies over the years, the market was on a long and seemingly inexorable fall, hitting just 7,054.98 points in March 2009. Over 20 years, the market had fallen 82 percent.

The latest rally shows how far the market has come back, with valuations now up more than 370 percent from the 2009 nadir. And it may have a long way to go yet. While Tokyo, as of mid-June, remains 13 percent below its 1990 high-water mark, in the same time period the FTSE 100 in London has risen 213 percent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has soared 1,146 percent. No wonder investors are now seeing opportunity in Japan, since just catching up to the rest of the world would represent potentially large gains.

One of the main drivers in the market’s climb is a surge in inflation that started with the shortages and higher commodity prices of the COVID-19 pandemic. While the higher external costs have been a headache for all major economies, in Japan they quickly produced what a decade of monetary easing had failed to achieve: demand-driven inflation where wages and prices both rise. After nearly three decades of deflationary price pressures, Japan’s inflation rate has quickly climbed from near-zero levels to 4 percent. While that is still subdued by global standards, it is still the highest since September 1981. “A cycle between inflation and wages is finally emerging in Japan. I think this is a structural change in the economy,” said Kentaro Koyama, Japan chief economist for Deutsche Bank.

This is exactly what former Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda vowed to create when he took office in 2013. He quickly undertook a bond and equity buying spree that left the central bank holding 50 percent of all the Japanese government bonds in circulation and becoming a major holder of stocks. The target he set was a consistent 2 percent inflation rate that would be seen in both prices and wages. After 10 years in office, making him the longest-serving Bank of Japan governor in history, but with little sign of numbers moving, his goal finally came into sight just as he stepped down earlier this year.

Even Japan’s stingy employers, which have offered near-guaranteed job security but little extra cash over the years, are now pushing up wages at their highest level in 30 years. Japan’s Trade Union Confederation this spring won a 3.8 percent increase for its nearly 7 million members. Medium- and small-sized businesses are now seeing that they need to keep up to avoid losing people.

Another attraction is the health of Japan’s corporate sector. While the global dominance of companies such as Sony, Panasonic, Japan Steel Works, and Toshiba is long gone, major corporations have remained highly profitable, finding specialist areas that offer strong profit margins. Instead of producing the electronic goods or even the computer chips that drive them, Japanese companies have done well in a globalized economy with specialist products, ranging from the chemicals needed to make the chips to the industry-leading motion sensors needed for a robotic work floor.

But experienced Japan watchers might feel a twinge of disquiet. Ever since the mid-1990s, when it became clear there were serious structural issues in the economy, there have been a series of “Japan is back” declarations, with the fizzling of initial rosy forecasts giving way to declarations that “this time is different.” Stock market rallies in 1996, 2000, and 2007 all gave way to renewed bear markets. Promises that corporate Japan had now changed and was serious about rewarding shareholders instead of hoarding cash also seemed to be more talk than action. Retained earnings have risen steadily, reaching 242 trillion yen ($2.2 trillion) in 2020.

But even some veterans who have seen it all before are much more optimistic today. “Japan is back,” said Tokyo strategist Nicholas Smith of the Asian financial services firm CLSA. In a report to clients in May, he said that strong earnings and attractive valuations have now been kickstarted by a new drive coming from regulators and the Tokyo Stock Exchange to push up share prices through stock buybacks. This cooperation is coming together in a way he has not seen in 35 years of watching the Japan market. “Japan’s market is still very much more than just cheap. It has growth when others haven’t, due to belated reopening; it’s awash with cash, driving some eyepopping buybacks,” he said in the report.

Helping this along, Smith said, is the involvement of once-shunned activist investors. His data shows that Japan is now the No. 2 market for activists in the world, after the United States. When the firms, including major international names, first saw opportunities in Japan in the early 2000s, they were often derided as hagetaka, the Japanese word for vultures. But after some high-profile agreements with corporate titans such as Toshiba and Olympus, the mood has changed. Well-known names such as the Carlyle Group and Bain Capital are active in Japan, along with some home-grown Japanese firms that often work from offshore.

The other big recovery has been in real estate values, which had plunged at the same rate as stocks in the 1990 collapse. Foreign investment is pouring into the sector as investors look at prices little-changed over the past 30 years, made even cheaper by a weaker Japanese yen, which has fallen 20 percent over the past two years. According to the Numbeo international cost-tracking website, apartment purchase prices in Tokyo are around half the price of the equivalent space in New York.

As depressingly often with economic developments, the boom has left one group out of the party: the average Japanese person, especially the estimated 88 percent who do not own shares. And while wages are rising, the gains are being outstripped by inflation.

“The current situation is a very good tailwind for risk assets. Real estate valuations are being helped by low interest rates. But will it help the average Japanese person? To be honest, I don’t think so,” said Deutsche’s Koyama.

He cites government data showing that even as wages are rising, inflation is one step ahead. According to the Labor Ministry, Japan’s inflation-adjusted real wage index fell 3 percent in April from a year earlier, the 13th consecutive month of declines.

Part of the problem, he said, is that wages are raised only annually, in many cases through the spring labor negotiation season, while prices rise continuously.

Unless, of course, people change jobs, an idea that is alien to traditional Japanese workers. But with Japan’s labor force now shrinking and demand for employees rising, the younger generation has taken to job hopping, which can easily add 10-20 percent to salaries.

The demand is clearly there, with 1.3 jobs for every job seeker, according to the Labor Ministry. (For those in construction, there are nearly 12 jobs per person.) The problem is that with one of the world’s fastest-shrinking populations, Japan is starting to face critical labor shortages, and the problem is expected to worsen.

This could undermine another potential area of growth for Japan from the new drive for economic security and the decoupling from China, which is now more politely called de-risking. While investment flows are typically slower to change than trade due to the long lead times involved, foreign investment into China was down 7 percent, at $76.7 billion, in the second half of 2022.

“The simple story of foreign business retreating from China is overdone and often just wrong. But neither is there a stampede back to China now that the mood music has become more positive,” Andrew Cainey, a senior associate fellow with the Royal United Services Institute in London, said in a commentary for Japan’s Nikkei.

With companies now increasingly nervous about their prospects in China, Japan is burnishing its credentials as a rule-of-law country that also offers solid infrastructure, a good lifestyle, and surprisingly low costs. Tokyo, which was for decades was ranked the most expensive place for foreigners, now scrapes in at No. 19, according to the latest Mercer ranking of cities by cost of living.

It’s not that costs have come down significantly; instead, they have gone up everywhere else. Japan’s newfound status as a low-cost destination is the natural result of 30 years of near-zero inflation. The longer-term problem is how to find the people to fill the jobs needed for any new boom period. But for now, foreign investors seem unconcerned. The bargains are just too good to pass up.

[timothypagliara]

Building a Profitable Investment Portfolio

A well-diversified portfolio is essential for any investor to achieve their goals. As an individual, you must know how to allocate your assets to meet your goals and risk tolerance. Having a well-designed strategy can help you avoid unexpected expenses and ensure that your investments are well-positioned for the long run.

Step 1. Determine Your Asset Allocation

Before you start building a portfolio, you must clearly understand your goals and financial situation. Some of the most common factors affecting a person’s investment strategy are their age, income needs, and the amount of available capital. For instance, an unmarried 22-year-old college graduate may need a different approach than a 55-year-old who plans on retiring in ten years.

If you’re not willing to risk losing money, then your investments might not be able to provide you with the high returns you’re looking for. Having a good understanding of these factors will help you determine how you should allocate your investments.

Another important factor you should consider when building a portfolio is the risk/return tradeoff. For instance, if you’re planning on having a relatively stable lifestyle and are not planning on relying on your investments for income, then you might want to take more significant risks. On the other hand, if you’re planning on having a more tax-efficient retirement, you might want to focus on protecting your assets.

Step 2. Achieving Your Portfolio

Once you have determined the appropriate asset allocation, you must divide your capital into two equal parts. For instance, you should allocate your money between bonds and equities. You can also break down the various asset classes into subclasses to better understand each class’s risks and potential returns. For instance, an investor may divide the equity portion of their portfolio between foreign and domestic stocks and companies and industrial sectors. On the other hand, the bond portion may be allocated between government and corporate debt and short- and long-term bonds.

Step 3. Reassess Your Portfolio Weightings

After you have an established portfolio, you must regularly re-evaluate and adjust the components of your portfolio to keep up with the changes in the market. Doing so will allow you to determine the appropriate asset allocation for your needs.

Factors affecting your financial situation and risk tolerance will also change over time. For instance, if your risk tolerance has decreased, you might need to reduce the number of stocks in your portfolio. Or, if you’re at the stage where you’re ready to take on more risk, then you might want to allocate a small portion of your assets to small-cap stocks.

Step 4. Rebalance

Before you start re-evaluating and adjusting the components of your portfolio’s details, you must determine which securities you should reduce and how much you should sell. This will allow you to determine which under-weighted securities to buy.

If you’re planning on reducing the number of stocks in your portfolio to re-balance it, you might owe a significant capital gains tax. However, it’s better to maintain a steady allocation of assets to other asset classes instead of selling all your growth stocks. This will allow you to reduce the overall weightage of your portfolio without having to pay taxes.

Even though you may be planning on selling some of your growth stocks, you should still consider the market’s outlook. If you’re worried that the same stocks may fall, you might want to sell them even though the tax implications are still significant. One way to reduce your tax bill is by selling some of your growth stocks through tax-loss selling.

[nicklloydnow]

“Is China about to have its ‘Lehman’ moment? After Chinese property developer Evergrande filed for bankruptcy protection in the U.S., that’s been the question some have whispered. The country’s debt crisis that’s rumbled on for two years is coming to a head, with China’s shadow bank sector now defaulting on payments.

(…)

Last week, Evergrande filed for protection in the U.S. under Chapter 15 of the bankruptcy code, which helps keep creditors at bay when a company is restructuring. Evergrande’s debt is held mainly by Western investors, hence filing in Manhattan.

It’s been at the center of the Chinese property sector’s debt crisis, which first unfolded in 2021 and has reared its head again this summer. Nearly two years ago, Evergrande defaulted on making interest payments on bonds, which sparked a set of failures across the Chinese property sector.

Companies accounting for roughly 40% of China’s home sales have now defaulted on debt since the crisis first unfolded. This has led to unfinished homes and ‘ghost cities’, supply chain disruptions and institutional investors out of pocket.

(…)

It’s not the only property developer struggling this week. China’s Country Garden Holdings is looking to restructure its bond repayments totaling $535 million over three years to stave off financial trouble.

(…)

Given real estate is estimated to make up 30% of China’s GDP, there are fears the contagion in China’s real estate market could spread and create a downward spiral of the property market depressing growth.

Last week, there were rare protests in Beijing after bank subsidiary Zhongrong defaulted on several investment products without immediate plans to repay its clients. Its parent company, Zhongzhi, manages $138 billion in assets, 10% of which are exposed to the real estate market.

Moody’s has previously stated that the increased amount of defaults from property developers has raised Chinese banks’ non-performing loan rate to 4.4% by the end of last year, up from 1.9% in 2020. China’s property sector is also considered the world's largest asset class, worth around $62 trillion, so any further signs of trouble could lead to the Chinese government intervening.

(…)

As for the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong, it’s officially entered a bear market. Around half the stocks on the index are now oversold, and it’s lost 11% of its value in August so far, which sets the scene for the Hang Seng’s worst performance since October.

The fear has spread to the U.S. markets in August, with the S&P 500 suffering three straight weeks of decline. The Nasdaq lost 5.5% in value in the same period, while the Dow Jones has seen a 3.2% decline.

Several banks have also downgraded China’s GDP growth outlook, which was previously estimated at 5% for 2023. Nomura now predicts 4.8% growth, with the likes of Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Barclays all following suit.”

“Country Garden Holdings Co., the distressed Chinese developer that earlier this month missed interest payments on some dollar bonds, is leaving investors in the dark about the exact date the grace period ends.

That’s adding to signs of opaqueness in the nation’s offshore junk debt market, which has lost $87 billion in the past two years.

One of China’s biggest developers, Country Garden must repay a combined $22.5 million in two coupons within the grace period, otherwise creditors could call a default that would be the developer’s first on such debt. That would threaten even worse impact than defaulted peer China Evergrande Group given Country Garden has four times as many projects.

(…)

China’s worsening property debt crisis has prompted a slew of developers including Evergrande to use grace periods in recent years. In many cases, doing so has only bought time before they eventually went on to default, adding to record debt failures.

Growing concerns that the same fate could strike Country Garden, which had 1.4 trillion yuan ($192 billion) of total liabilities at the end of last year, have dragged Chinese junk dollar bonds deeper into distress under 65 cents. The market value of Bloomberg’s index for the securities, mostly issued by builders, has shrunk to only about $44.7 billion from some $131.8 billion two years ago.”

[shrey-bhootrablogs123]

Outlook 2023, BONDS is the place to be.

OUTLOOK 2023,

        BONDS IS THE PLACE TO BE.

                                   BY

                                       SHREY BHOOTRA

                                        STANDARD 7th

           SCHOOL – THE BISHOPS SCHOOL CAMP, PUNE.

                                INTRODUCTION.

In this paper I will be talking about the outlook of 2023 and why this year bonds are a safer and better bet compared to equities.

1.   Indian stock market lags behind its global peers in 2023.

The Indian stock market, which had been a star performer in 2022 despite global headwinds, has been lagging behind its global peers since the start of 2023. The domestic benchmark indices, the Sensex and Nifty 50 gave a return of 5.78% and 4.33% in the calendar year 2022 respectively. Since the start of calendar year 2023 the Nifty 50 index has gone down from 18,197 to 17,567, while the Sensex has gone down from 61,167 to 59,745 which means they have both gone down by 4.47% and 2.33% already! The markets in 2023 started the year well before facing challenges as the month went on. The underperformance has been attributed to a range of factors, including continuous selling of FPIs, the reopening of the Chinese economy, the sell-off in the Adani group stocks and the depreciation of the Indian Rupee. On January 25th the Nifty 50 and Sensex tumbled 1.25% and 1.27% respectively, a day after the Hindenburg released a report alleging the Adani Group of certain accusations, on the following day the two indices lost another 1.61% and 1.45% in value, taking the cumulative loss to 2.83% and 2.70% in just two trading sessions. The banking stocks which had given loans to the Adani group of companies also took a brunt on concerns over the debt exposure to the Adani group, the Banking sector which had been the driving force behind the index growth over the past few years was now facing headwinds causing the Nifty 50 to underperform. According to the PTI report foreign investors pulled out Rs 28,852 crores from equities in the month of January 2023, making it the worst outflow since June 2022. This came following a net investment of Rs 11,119 crore is December 2022 and Rs36,238 crore in November. The Indian Rupee started January 2023 on a strong note, strengthening 1.60% in the first three weeks, however it gave up its gains as the month progressed and ended January with a fall of 1.18% at 81.73 against the US Dollar. The Indian Rupee ended 2022 as the worst performing currency with a fall 11.3%, its biggest annual decline since 2013. In December 2022 the global brokerage Goldman Sachs said that India is likely to underperform its peers in 2023 due to expensive valuations. The Indian market had been a strong outperformer in 2022 due to stronger domestic fundamentals, but valuations have turned expensive compared to global peers. Another cause for the equity markets not performing well is inflation, inflation in the month of January 2023 in India was 6.52% compared to 5.72% in the month of December 2022, when inflation is high it reduces the purchasing power of common households thus also having a negative effect on the equity markets. The main cause of rise in inflation in India is because of food inflation, the CPI food index rose to 5.9% in January 2023 from 4.2% in December 2022.

2.   Why are bonds the place to invest in 2023.

Since the equity markets have not been performing well since the start of the year, bonds are the next best place to invest, retail investors, DIIs and FIIs have been pulling money out of the market and have been investing in bonds. Since bonds provide a predictable income stream and have stable returns and have a lower risk people prefer to invest in bonds this year over equities. The US one year bond yield is currently at 5.0541%.

-       SHREY BHOOTRA

23.3.23

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

Brazil's economic outlook dampens – what it means for investors

While Brazil's markets enjoyed a high last year, they now walk on the "financial wild side" as investors grow wary of president Lula's spending plans

Brazilian stocks rode a “wave of optimism” to a record high last year, says Marcelo Azevedo in Folha de S. Paulo. Markets were relieved that the newly installed left-wing administration of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had promised to keep spending under control. This year has been trickier. In January it was apparent that US interest rates would stay higher for longer. That has squeezed emerging markets such as Brazil, which struggle to attract the attention of US-based investors when dollar bonds are already paying well. In April, Brazil’s government compounded the problem by relaxing fiscal targets, further spooking investors.

Continue reading.